diff --git a/KNOWN_ISSUES.md b/KNOWN_ISSUES.md index a8dd3f6..81a5c43 100644 --- a/KNOWN_ISSUES.md +++ b/KNOWN_ISSUES.md @@ -1,5 +1,13 @@ # Known Issues +- `IRENE NORTON, ne A ́ DLER` in Sherlock Holmes +- double sided text: right side marked as code (e.g. CC-NC_Leitfaden.pdf) +- upper/lowercas characters wrongly detected (e.g. CC-NC_Leitfaden.pdf) +- footnotes which arnt footnotes (CC_License_Agreement_of_siMPle.pdf) but links (parser issue?) +- alternating page layout => code detection (Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.pdf) +- letters are screwed up often (Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.pdf) +- no TOC detection (Made-with-cc.pdf) + ## Missing or wrong characters The text which comes of pdfjs looks very erronous sometimes. E.g [Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man](examples/Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.pdf). @@ -29,10 +37,7 @@ The interesting thing is that rendering with pdfjs (online) looks good. So maybe - no toc - romisch numbers are wrong - subheading under the toc headings should be detected as well (clearly not in the code) - -# Sherlock - -- words not together +- wrong line orders on page `iv` ? see `This book is an open access publication` & `Additional material to this book` # Made-with-cc.pdf diff --git a/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement.md b/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement.md index fc7b480..6c93a42 100644 --- a/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement.md +++ b/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement.md @@ -12,13 +12,11 @@ ## Pathways for +1.5°C and +2°C - #### Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals - #### Sven Teske -###### Editor +Editor ## Achieving the Paris Climate @@ -30,15 +28,14 @@ ### Pathways for +1.5°C and +2°C - ISBN 978-3-030-05842-5 ISBN 978-3-030-05843-2 (eBook) -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843- +https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018966518 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019. -**Open Access** This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4. -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +**Open Access** This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -67,14 +64,12 @@ Sydney, NSW, Australia ``` This book is an open access publication ``` -Additional material to this book can be downloaded from [http://extras.springer.com.](http://extras.springer.com.) - +Additional material to this book can be downloaded from [http://extras.springer.com](http://extras.springer.com). _For the next generation._ _For my son, Travis._ - ``` vii ``` @@ -90,13 +85,12 @@ greenhouse gases have already caused around 1.0  °C of warming above pre- industrial levels. -``` Continuing at the current rate, we are likely to reach 1.5 °C by 2030 – and all the -``` + evidence suggests that a world beyond 1.5 °C is not one we want to live in. ``` -While making the 2016 documentary film, Before the Flood , I witnessed first- +While making the 2016 documentary film, Before the Flood, I witnessed first- ``` hand the impacts of an already-changing climate: the rapid melting of ice in the @@ -108,9 +102,8 @@ breaking impact of human activity on our natural world. It is estimated, for exa that 60% of animals have been wiped out since 1970. -``` Higher temperatures and extreme weather events will cause ever more severe -``` + harm to biodiversity and ecosystems and even greater species loss and extinction. And when we lose biodiversity, we lose resilience. Currently, natural ecosystems @@ -121,9 +114,8 @@ degrade the natural world, we could lose completely the Earth’s ability to ada climate change. -``` A passion for nature conservation and animal protection has driven much of my -``` + foundation’s work over the past 20 years. Ultimately, however, the climate crisis is a humanitarian one. If business-as-usual continues, the impact on human beings @@ -138,16 +130,14 @@ migration to safer lands. Fatal floods, droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires are #### Climate Model: Foreword - viii new normal, and happening closer to home. An estimated 41 million Americans live within a 100-year flood zone. Texas saw its third 500-year flood 3 years in a row. -``` Poor air quality is a public health emergency across the world and now the -``` + fourth-highest cause of death  – contributing to strokes, heart attacks, and lung cancer – causing public unrest in countries like China and India, where the poorest @@ -160,9 +150,8 @@ fighting back against gas drilling operations near playgrounds or soccer fields, where children breathe in poisonous gases. -``` These health impacts are only part of the story. Climate change, as the US -``` + Pentagon notes, is a national security threat. In a 2017 report by the Environmental Justice Foundation, senior US military experts pointed to the likelihood of tens of @@ -175,9 +164,8 @@ environmental factors and access to natural resources. The truth is that, where ecosystems collapse, societies collapse too. -``` Politically, there has been a monumental failure to grasp the scale of this problem. -``` + Climate scientists still face disinformation campaigns and a press corps that often draws a false equivalence between those who support the scientific consensus for @@ -186,15 +174,14 @@ human-caused climate change and those who do not. Surveys suggest that most Americans do not know a scientific consensus exists, and scientists like Michael -Mann, who spoke to me for _Before the Flood_ , face abuse for exposing the truth. As +Mann, who spoke to me for _Before the Flood_, face abuse for exposing the truth. As a result, scientific research programs, critical to better understanding and addressing climate change, are often attacked or defunded. -``` Nevertheless, in the face of these challenges, some progress is being made. With -``` + the growth of the environmental movement, public awareness of the climate crisis has increased significantly. Governments and the private sector are beginning to @@ -209,18 +196,16 @@ Agreement now calls upon the world’s governments to keep warming “well below 2°C” while striving for 1.5°C. -``` While we are beginning to move in the right direction, the reality is that these -``` + efforts are simply not ambitious enough to address the climate crisis at scale. The IPCC warns that to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, we must stay below the 1.5 °C limit. But what does that mean in practical terms? -``` Determined to find solutions, my foundation supported a 2-year research program -``` + led by a team of international climate and energy experts to develop a roadmap for how we can actually stay below this critical climate threshold. The findings, outlined @@ -234,42 +219,26 @@ stay below the 1.5 °C limit with technologies that are available right now. It ``` Climate Model: Foreword ``` - ``` ix ``` a lot of work, but the costs will be far less than the $5 trillion per year governments - currently spend subsidizing the fossil fuel industries responsible for climate change. - -``` The climate model and energy transition pathways compiled in this book offer an -``` exciting, positive, and achievable vision of a better world in which we are no longer - dependent on fossil fuels and where the conservation and restoration of nature is - treated as indispensable to our survival. This is not fantasy. This is science. - -``` Science is showing us the way forward, but you do not need to be a scientist to -``` understand that climate change is the defining issue of our time. If our world warms - past 1.5 °C, our way of life will profoundly change for the worse. Why not manage - the transition in a way that is orderly and equitable? Human beings caused this - problem, but with our vast knowledge and ingenuity, we can also fix it. - -``` We are resilient. We can adapt. We can change. -``` + Chairman of the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation Leonardo DiCaprio Climate Model: Foreword - ``` xi ``` @@ -281,64 +250,42 @@ xi Address: Building 10, 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW, Australia 2007/Telephone: -``` +61 2 9514 4786 -``` + https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/institute-sustainable- -``` futures -``` -**Author:** Dr. Sven Teske +**Author:** Dr. Sven Teske E-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au -``` Chapters: 1, 2.2, 3.1, 3.2, 3.5, 3.6, 7, 8 (Power Sector analysis), 9, 10, 13 -``` **Author:** Prof. Dr. Damien Giurco Chapters: 11, 13 - E-mail: damien.giurco@uts.edu.au - **Author:** Tom Morris Chapters: 3.2, 3.5, 3.6, 7 - E-mail: tom.morris@uts.edu.au - **Author:** Kriti Nagrath Chapters: 3.2, 7 - E-mail: kriti.nagrath@uts.edu.au - **Author:** Franziska Mey Chapter: 10 - E-mail: franziska.mey@uts.edu.au - **Author:** Dr Chris Briggs Chapter: 10 - E-mail: chris.briggs@uts.edu.au - **Author:** Elsa Dominish Chapter: 10, 11 - E-mail: elsa.dominish@uts.edu.au - **Author:** Dr Nick Florin Chapter 11 - E-mail: nick.florin@uts.edu.au **Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University – for Chapter 11** - Author: Takuma Watari, - Author: Benjamin Mclellan - xii **German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for Engineering Thermodynamics** -``` -(TT), -``` +**(TT),** + **Department of Energy Systems Analysis** Address: Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, Germany D-70569/Telephone: +49-711 6862 355 @@ -371,9 +318,8 @@ Chapters: 3.1, 3.4, 5, 8 ``` **German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Vehicle Concepts (FK),** -``` -Department of Vehicle Systems and Technology Assessment -``` +**Department of Vehicle Systems and Technology Assessment** + Address: Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, Germany D-70569/Telephone: +49-711 6862 533 https://www.dlr.de/fk/en/desktopdefault.aspx/ @@ -398,10 +344,9 @@ E-mail: stephan.schmid@dlr.de Address: Australian-German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan -``` Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia 3010 -``` -[http://www.energy-transition-hub.org](http://www.energy-transition-hub.org) + +[www.energy-transition-hub.org](www.energy-transition-hub.org) **Author:** A/Prof. Dr. Malte Meinshausen Chapters: 2.1, 3.8, 4, 12, 13 @@ -424,28 +369,19 @@ Telephone: +61 3 90356760 ``` Contact Information ``` - ``` xiii ``` #### Executive Summary **Abstract** An overview of the motivations behind the writing of this book, the sci- - entific background and context of the research. Brief outline of all methodologies - used, followed by assumptions and the storyline of each scenario. Presentation of - main results of the renewable energy resources assessment, transport scenario, long- - term energy pathway, the power sector analysis, employment analysis and an assess- - ment for required metals for renewable energy and storage technologies. Key results - of non-energy greenhouse mitigation scenarios which are developed in support of - the energy scenario in order to achieve the 1.5 °C target. Concluding remarks and - policy recommendations including graphs and tables. **Introduction** The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global warming to well @@ -462,209 +398,129 @@ detailed bottom-up examination of the potential of the energy sector, in order t avoid reliance on net negative emissions later on. -``` The study described in this book focuses on the ways in which humans produce -``` -energy, because energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are the main drivers +energy, because energy-related carbon dioxide (CO[^2]:) emissions are the main drivers of climate change. The analysis also considers the development pathways for non- -energy- related emissions and mitigation measures for them because it is essential to - +energy-related emissions and mitigation measures for them because it is essential to address their contributions if we are to achieve the Paris climate change targets. **State of Research—Climate** Beyond reasonable doubt, climate change over the - last 250  years has been driven by anthropogenic activities. In fact, the human- - induced release of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere warms the planet - even more than is currently observed as climate change, but some of that greenhouse- - -gas- induced warming is masked by the effect of aerosol emissions. - +gas-induced warming is masked by the effect of aerosol emissions. xiv -``` Carbon dioxide emissions are so large that they are the dominant driver of -``` -human-induced climate change. A single kilogram of CO 2 emitted will increase the - -atmospheric CO 2 concentration over hundreds or even thousands of years. Since the - +human-induced climate change. A single kilogram of CO[^2]: emitted will increase the +atmospheric CO[^2]: concentration over hundreds or even thousands of years. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, the - -finding that cumulative CO 2 emissions are roughly linearly related to temperature - -has shaped scientific and political debate. The remaining permissible CO 2 emissions - +finding that cumulative CO[^2]: emissions are roughly linearly related to temperature +has shaped scientific and political debate. The remaining permissible CO[^2]: emissions that are consistent with a target temperature increase of 2  °C or 1.5  °C and their - comparison with remaining fossil fuel resources are of key interest. +The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concluded that beyond 2011, cumulative CO2 +emissions of roughly 1000 GtCO[^2]: are permissible for a “likely below 2.0 °C” target -``` -The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concluded that beyond 2011, cumulative CO 2 -``` -emissions of roughly 1000 GtCO 2 are permissible for a “likely below 2.0 °C” target - -change, and approximately 400 GtCO 2 are permissible for a 1.5  °C target change. - +change, and approximately 400 GtCO[^2]: are permissible for a 1.5  °C target change. However, the recently published IPCC Special Report on the 1.5 °C target suggests -substantially higher carbon emissions of 1600 GtCO 2 will achieve a 2.0 °C change - +substantially higher carbon emissions of 1600 GtCO[^2]: will achieve a 2.0 °C change and 860 GtCO2 will achieve a 1.5 °C change, which must be reduced by a further 100 - -GtCO 2 to account for additional Earth system feedback over the twenty- first century. - +GtCO[^2]: to account for additional Earth system feedback over the twenty-first century. One of the key reasons behind this difference is definitional: how far do we consider - that we are away from 1.5 °C warming? While that question seems simple, it is sur- - prisingly complex when the observational data on coverage, the internal variability - and the pre-industrial to early-industrial temperature differences are considered. - -``` This study does not resolve the differences in opinions about carbon budgets, but -``` it does provide emission pathways that are consistent with the 1.5 °C target increase - in the 1.5 °C Scenario, or with the “well below 2.0 °C” target increase in the 2.0 °C - Scenario consistent with other scenarios in the literature and classified as such by - the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C. **Global Trends in the Energy Sector** In 2017, the ongoing trends continued: solar - photovoltaics (PV) and wind power dominated the global market for new power - plants; the price of renewable energy technologies continued to decline; and fossil - fuel prices remained low. A new benchmark was reached, in that the new renewable - capacity began to compete favourably with existing fossil fuel power plants in some - markets. Electrification of the transport and heating sectors is gaining attention, and - although the amount of electrification is currently small, the use of renewable - technologies is expected to increase significantly. -``` The growth of solar PV has been remarkable and is nearly double that of the -``` second-ranking wind power. The capacity of new solar PV in 2017 was greater than - the combined increases in the coal, gas and nuclear capacities. Renewable energy - technologies achieved a global average generation share of 23% in the year 2015, - compared with 18% in the year 2005. Storage is increasingly used in combination - with variable renewables as battery costs decline, and solar PV plus storage has - started to compete with gas peaking plants. However, bioenergy (including - traditional biomass) remains the leading renewable energy source in the heating - (buildings and industry) and transport sectors. - -``` -Since 2013, global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil -``` +Since 2013, global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO[^2]:) emissions from fossil fuels have remained relatively flat. Early estimates based on preliminary data - -suggest that this changed in 2017, with global CO 2 emissions increasing by around - +suggest that this changed in 2017, with global CO[^2]: emissions increasing by around 1.4% (REN21-GSR 2018). These increased emissions were primarily attributable to ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xv ``` increased coal consumption in China, which grew by 3.7% in 2017 after a 3-year - decline. The increased Chinese consumption, as well as a steady growth of around - 4% in India, is expected to lead to an upturn in global coal use, reversing the annual - global decline from 2013 to 2016. - -``` In 2017, as in previous years, renewables saw the greatest increases in capacity -``` in the power sector, whereas the growth of renewables in the heating, cooling and - transport sectors was comparatively slow. Sector coupling—the interconnection of - power, heating and transport and particularly the electrification of heating and - transport—is gaining increasing attention as a means of increasing the uptake of - renewables in the transport and thermal sectors. Sector coupling also allows the - integration of large proportions of variable renewable energy, although this is still at - an early stage. For example, China is specifically encouraging the electrification of - heating, manufacturing and transport in high-renewable areas, including promoting - the use of renewable electricity for heating to reduce the curtailment of wind, solar - PV and hydropower. Several US states are examining options for electrification, - specifically to increase the overall renewable energy share. **Methodology for Developing Emission Pathways** The complete decarbonisation - of the global energy supply requires entirely new technical, economic and policy - frameworks for the electricity, heating and cooling sectors as well as for the trans- - port system. To develop a global plan, the authors combined various established - computer models: -- _Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW)_ : This statistical method is used to - -``` -complement the CO 2 pathways with non-CO 2 regional emissions for relevant +• Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW): This statistical method is used to +complement the CO2 pathways with non-CO2 regional emissions for relevant greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, based on a statistical analysis of the large number (~700) of multi-gas emission pathways underlying the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the recently published IPCC Special Report on -1.5  °C.  The GQW method calculates the median non-CO 2 gas emission levels -every 5 years—conditional on the energy-related CO 2 emission level percentile +1.5  °C.  The GQW method calculates the median non-CO2 gas emission levels +every 5 years—conditional on the energy-related CO2 emission level percentile of the “source” pathway. This method is a further development under this project—building on an earlier Equal Quantile Walk method—and is now better able to capture the emission dynamics of low-mitigation pathways. -``` -- _Land-based sequestration design_ : A Monte Carlo analysis across temperate, +• Land-based sequestration design: A Monte Carlo analysis across temperate, ``` boreal, subtropical and tropical regions has been performed based on various literature-based estimates of sequestration rates, sequestration periods and areas available for a number of sequestration options. This approach can be seen as a -quantified literature-based synthesis of the potential for land-based CO 2 +quantified literature-based synthesis of the potential for land-based CO2 sequestration, which is not reliant on biomass plus sequestration and storage (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, BECCS). ``` -- _Carbon cycle and climate modelling (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse_ - -``` -Gas-Induced Climate Change, MAGICC) : This study uses the MAGICC climate +• Carbon cycle and climate modelling (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse +Gas-Induced Climate Change, MAGICC): This study uses the MAGICC climate model, which also underlies the classification used by both the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the IPCC Special Report on 1.5  °C in terms of the abilities of various scenarios to maintain the temperature change below 2 °C or 1.5 °C. MAGICC is constantly evolving, but its core goes back to the 1980s, and -``` -Executive Summary +Executive Summary xvi @@ -672,7 +528,7 @@ xvi it represents one of the most established reduced-complexity climate models in the international community. ``` -- _Renewable Resource Assessment [R]E-SPACE_ : RE-SPACE is based on a +• Renewable Resource Assessment [R]E-SPACE: RE-SPACE is based on a ``` Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach and provides maps of the solar @@ -683,7 +539,7 @@ renewable energy resources (primarily solar and wind) available in each region. It also provides an overview of the existing electricity infrastructures for fossil fuel and renewable sources. ``` -- _Transport model (TRAEM)_ : The transport scenario model allows the +• Transport model (TRAEM): The transport scenario model allows the ``` representation of long-term transport developments in a consistent and transparent @@ -692,7 +548,7 @@ calculates the final energy demand by multiplying each transport mode’s specif transport demand with powertrain-specific energy demands, using a passenger km (pkm) and tonne km (tkm) activity-based bottom-up approach. ``` -- _Energy system model (EM)_ : The energy system model (a long-term energy +• Energy system model (EM): The energy system model (a long-term energy ``` scenario model) is used as a mathematical accounting system for the energy @@ -706,7 +562,7 @@ heat, transport and industry), without applying cost-optimization based on uncertain cost assumptions. However, an ex-post analysis of costs and investments shows the main economic effects of the pathways. ``` -- _Power system models [R]E 24/7_ : Power system models simulate electricity +• Power system models [R]E 24/7: Power system models simulate electricity ``` systems on an hourly basis with geographic resolution to assess the requirements @@ -721,7 +577,7 @@ in 1 h steps, are required for the power-generation model, and historical solar wind data were used to calculate the possible renewable power generation. In terms of demand, either historical demand curves were used, or if unavailable, demand curves were calculated based on assumptions of consumer behaviour in -the use of electrical equipment and common electrical appliances. Figure  1 +the use of electrical equipment and common electrical appliances. Figure 1 provides an overview of the interaction between the energy- and GIS-based models. The climate model is not directly linked with it but provided the carbon budgets for the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios. @@ -729,15 +585,13 @@ budgets for the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios. ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xvii ``` **Output** -``` -Resource model ([R]E SPACE) -``` +**Resource model ([R]E SPACE)** + ``` GIS based renewable energy potentials based on weather & ``` @@ -745,11 +599,10 @@ GIS based renewable energy potentials based on weather & land use data ``` ``` -Transport model (TRAEM) freight & passenger transport +Transport model (TRAEM)freight & passenger transport ``` ``` -demand by mode full energy balances: final energy -demand power, heat & transport,supply structure, primary energy +demand by mode full energy balances: final energy demand power, heat & transport,supply structure, primary energy demand by fuel, emission, investment ``` ``` @@ -759,8 +612,7 @@ balanced RE power system, storage ``` ``` -demand, -curtailment +demand,curtailment ``` ``` total climate change effects @@ -784,27 +636,26 @@ budget energy-relatedCO ``` ``` -2 -``` -``` -emissions +emissions2 ``` ``` annual +``` +``` energy-relatedCO ``` ``` -emissions 2 +emissions2 ``` ``` annual power & supply demand ``` -**Modellingcluster** +``` +Modellingcluster +``` +**Power system model** -``` -Power system model -``` ``` ([R]E 24/7) hourly balancing of @@ -837,7 +688,7 @@ characteristics biofuel constraints ``` ``` -Energy system model (EM) bottom-up simulation of future energy balances based on GDP, +Energy system model (EM)bottom-up simulation of future energy balances based on GDP, ``` ``` population, technology, @@ -849,18 +700,14 @@ population, technology, Simplified land-based sequestration model ``` ``` -complementing reforestation, -``` -``` -restoration, +complementing reforestation, restoration, sustainable use and agroforestry options. ``` ``` Reduced ``` ``` -complexity carbon cycle and climate model (MAGICC) -to calculate the climatic effects +complexity carbon cycle and climate model (MAGICC)to calculate the climatic effects ``` ``` of multi-gas pathways @@ -873,47 +720,28 @@ Interactions between the models used in this study ``` Executive Summary - xviii -``` Besides the climate and energy models, employment effects and the metal -``` resource requirements for selected materials have been calculated. Now that the - methodology has been outlined, the next sections present the results and assumptions - for the nonenergy GHG mitigation scenarios, followed by the energy sector - scenarios **Nonenergy-GHG Mitigation Scenarios** The most important sequestration - measure could be large-scale reforestation, particularly in the subtropics and tropics - -(see yellow pathways in Fig. 2). The second most important pathway in terms of the - -amount of CO 2 sequestered is the sustainable use of existing forests, which basically - +(see yellow pathways in Fig. [^2]:). The second most important pathway in terms of the +amount of CO[^2]: sequestered is the sustainable use of existing forests, which basically means reduced logging within those forests. In subtropical, temperate and boreal - regions, this could provide substantial additional carbon uptake over time. The time - horizon for this sequestration option is assumed to be slightly longer in temperate - and boreal regions, consistent with the longer time it takes for these forest ecosystems - to reach equilibrium. The “forest ecosystem restoration” pathway is also important, - which basically assumes a reduction in logging rates to zero in a fraction of forests. -``` -Overall, the median assumed sequestration pathways, shown in Fig. 2, would -``` +Overall, the median assumed sequestration pathways, shown in Fig. [^2]:, would result in the sequestration of 151.9  GtC.  This is approximately equivalent to all - -historical land-use-related CO 2 emissions and indicates the substantial challenges - +historical land-use-related CO[^2]: emissions and indicates the substantial challenges that accompany these sequestration pathways. Given the competing forms of land use throughout the world today, the challenge of @@ -932,10 +760,10 @@ underestimated. There would be significant benefits, but also risks, if this 500 ``` ``` -1, +1,000 ``` ``` -1, +1,500 ``` ``` Annual sequestration (MtC/yr) @@ -978,61 +806,36 @@ and tropics) ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xix ``` sequestration option were to be used _instead_ of mitigation. However, the benefits - are clearly manifold, ranging from biodiversity protection, reduced erosion, - improved local climates, protection from wind and potentially reduced air pollution. **Assumptions for Scenarios** Scenario studies cannot predict the future. Instead, - scenarios describe what is required for a pathway that will limit warming to a certain - level and that is feasible in terms of technology implementation and investment. - Scenarios also allow us to explore the possible effects of transition processes, such - as supply costs and emissions. The energy demand and supply scenarios described - in this study have been constructed based on information about current energy - structures and today’s knowledge of energy resources and the costs involved in - deploying them. As far as possible, the study also takes into account potential - regional constraints and preferences. -``` The energy modelling used primarily aims to generate transparent and coherent -``` scenarios, ambitious but still plausible storylines, out of several possible techno- - economic pathways. Knowledge integration is the core of this approach because we - must consider different technical, economic, environmental and societal factors. - Scenario modelling follows a hybrid bottom-up/top-down approach, with no - objective cost-optimization functions. The analysis considers key technologies for - successful energy transition and focuses on the role and potential utility of efficiency - measures and renewable energies. Wind and solar energies have the highest - economic potential and dominate the pathways on the supply side. However, the - variable renewable power from wind and PV remains limited to a maximum of - 65%, because sufficient secured capacity must always be maintained in the - electricity system. Therefore, we also consider concentrating solar power (CSP) - with high-temperature heat storage as a solar option that promises large-scale - dispatchable and secured power generation. _The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario):_ The reference scenario only takes into @@ -1055,47 +858,31 @@ provides a baseline for comparison with the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. _The 2.0 °C Scenario:_ The first alternative scenario aims for an ambitious reduction -in GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and a global energy-related CO 2 emission budget - +in GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and a global energy-related CO[^2]: emission budget of around 590 Gt between 2015 and 2050. This scenario is close to the assumptions - and results of the Advanced E[R] scenario published in 2015 by Greenpeace (Teske - et  al. 2015). However, it includes an updated base year, more coherent regional - developments in energy intensity, and reconsidered trajectories and shares of the - deployment of renewable energy systems. Compared with the 1.5 °C Scenario, the Executive Summary - xx 2.0 °C Scenario allows for some delays due to political, economic and societal pro- - cesses and stakeholders. _The 1.5  °C Scenario:_ The second alternative scenario aims to achieve a global - -energy-related CO 2 emission budget of around 450 Gt, accumulated between 2015 - +energy-related CO[^2]: emission budget of around 450 Gt, accumulated between 2015 and 2050. The 1.5  °C Scenario requires immediate action to realize all available - options. It is a technical pathway, not a political prognosis. It refers to technically - possible measures and options without taking into account societal barriers. - Efficiency and renewable potentials need to be deployed even more quickly than in - the 2.0  °C Scenario, and avoiding inefficient technologies and behaviours is an - essential strategy for developing regions in this scenario. **Global Transport** Transport emissions have increased at a rapid rate in recent - -decades and accounted for 21% of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in 2015. The - +decades and accounted for 21% of total anthropogenic CO[^2]: emissions in 2015. The reason for this steady increase in emissions is that passenger and freight transport activities are increasing in all world regions, and there is currently no sign that these @@ -1110,9 +897,8 @@ base, which is why in terms of total numbers, electricity remains an energy carr with a relatively minor role in the transport sector. -``` The key results of our transport modelling demonstrate that meeting the 2.0 °C -``` + Scenario, and especially the 1.5  °C Scenario, will require profound measures in terms of rapid powertrain electrification and the use of biofuels and synthetically @@ -1164,7 +950,6 @@ commercial electric vehicles and buses could achieve even higher shares of betwe ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxi ``` @@ -1183,7 +968,7 @@ countries in the oil-producing countries of the Middle East will remain predomin dependent on internal combustion engines, using bio- or synthetic-based fuels. ``` -In the 1.5 °C Scenario , an earlier and more rapid increase in electric powertrain +In the 1.5 °C Scenario, an earlier and more rapid increase in electric powertrain ``` penetration is required, with the OECD regions at the forefront. The emerging eco- @@ -1201,11 +986,10 @@ nal combustion engine (ICE)-powered cars, fuelled with biofuels or synthetic fue will still be on the road but will be constantly replaced by electric drivetrains -(Fig. 3). +(Fig. [^3]:). -``` Efficiency improvements are modelled across all transport modes until 2050, -``` + resulting in improved energy intensity over time. We project an increase in annual efficiency of 0.5–1% in terms of MJ/tonnes km or MJ/passenger km, depending on @@ -1216,19 +1000,17 @@ increasing the efficiency at the MJ/pkm or MJ/tkm level will result from the fol ing measures: -- Reductions in powertrain losses through more efficient motors, gears, power +– Reductions in powertrain losses through more efficient motors, gears, power -``` electronics, etc. -``` -- Reductions in aerodynamic drag -- Reductions in vehicle mass through lightweighting -- The use of smaller vehicles -- Operational improvements (e.g. through automatic train operation, load factor -``` +– Reductions in aerodynamic drag +– Reductions in vehicle mass through lightweighting +– The use of smaller vehicles +– Operational improvements (e.g. through automatic train operation, load factor + improvements) -``` + Transport performance will increase in all scenarios on a global scale but with dif- ferent speeds and intensities across modes and world regions. Current trends in @@ -1267,7 +1049,7 @@ ferent speeds and intensities across modes and world regions. Current trends in 100% 2.0C 1.5C ``` ``` -Powertrain split of world passenger car fleet^20152020202520302035204020452050 +Powertrain split of world passenger car fleet[^2015][^2020][^2025][^2030][^2035][^2040][^2045][^2050] Internal Combuson Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric Hydrogen ``` ``` @@ -1301,7 +1083,7 @@ Internal Combuson Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric Hydrogen 90% ``` ``` -100 % +100% ``` ``` 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 @@ -1311,34 +1093,20 @@ Scenario (right) Executive Summary - xxii transport performance until 2050 are extrapolated for the 5.0 °C Scenario. In rela- - tive terms, all transport carriers will increase their performance from the current - levels, and in particular, energy-intensive aviation, passenger car transport and com- - mercial road transport are projected to grow strongly. In the 2.0  °C Scenario and - 1.5 °C Scenario, we project a strong increase in rail traffic (starting from a relatively - low base) and slower growth or even a decline in the use of the other modes in all - -world regions (Fig. 4). - -``` +world regions (Fig. [^4]:). The modal shifts from domestic aviation to rail and from road to rail are mod- -``` elled. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, passenger car pkm must decrease in the - OECD countries (but increase in the developing world regions) after 2020 in order - to maintain the carbon budget. The passenger car pkm decline will be partly com- - pensated by an increase in the performances of other transport modes, specifically - public transport rail and bus systems. ``` @@ -1393,7 +1161,6 @@ and 1.5 °C Scenarios ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxiii ``` @@ -1419,71 +1186,46 @@ area available, all scenario-relevant regions and subregions were analysed with with a defined set of constraints: -- Residential and urban settlements -- Infrastructure for transport (e.g. rail, roads) -- Industrial areas -- Intensive agricultural production land -- Nature conservation areas and national parks -- Wetlands and swamps -- Closed grasslands (as the land-use type) +– Residential and urban settlements +– Infrastructure for transport (e.g. rail, roads) +– Industrial areas +– Intensive agricultural production land +– Nature conservation areas and national parks +– Wetlands and swamps +– Closed grasslands (as the land-use type) ``` In addition to this spatial analysis, the remaining available land areas were cor- ``` related with the available solar and wind resources. For CSP, a minimum solar radi- -ation of 2000 kilowatt hours per square meter and year (kWh/m^2 year) is assumed +ation of 2000 kilowatt hours per square meter and year (kWh/m[^2] year) is assumed to be the minimum deployment criterion, whereas the onshore wind potential under - an average annual wind speed of 5 m/s has been omitted. - -``` The 2.0 °C Scenario utilizes only a fraction of the available economic potential -``` of the assumed suitable land for utility-scale solar PV and CSP plants. This estimate - does not include solar PV rooftop systems, which have significant additional - potential. India has the highest solar utilization rate of 8.5%, followed by Europe - and the Middle East, each of which utilizes around 5%. Onshore wind potential has - been utilized to a larger extent than solar potential. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, space- - constrained India will utilize about half of all the onshore wind energy utilized, - followed by Europe, which will utilize one fifth. This wind potential excludes - offshore wind, which has significant potential, but mapping the offshore wind - potential was beyond the scope of this analysis. - -``` The 1.5  °C Scenario is based on the accelerated deployment of all renewables -``` and the more ambitions implementation of efficiency measures. Thus, the total - installed capacity of solar and wind power plants by 2050 is not necessarily larger - than it is in the 2.0  °C Scenario, and the utilization rate is in the same order of - magnitude. The increased deployment of renewable capacity in the OECD Pacific - (Australia), the Middle East and Africa will be due to the production of synthetic - -bunker fuels based on hydrogen or synthetic fuels ( _synfuels_ ) to supply the global - +bunker fuels based on hydrogen or synthetic fuels (_synfuels_) to supply the global transport energy for international shipping and aviation. - -``` -Key results of the global long-term energy scenarios show that the efficiency -``` +**Key results of the global long-term energy scenarios** show that the efficiency and uptake of renewable energy are two sides of the same coin. All sectors, including Executive Summary - xxiv transport, industry and all commercial and residential buildings, must use energy @@ -1545,7 +1287,7 @@ pumps, and, in the transport sector, there will be an increase of about 23,400  year due to electric mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport and -high- temperature process heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels for transport +high-temperature process heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels for transport will add an additional power demand of 18,800 TWh/year. The gross power demand @@ -1574,9 +1316,8 @@ Scenario will have a generation capacity of renewable energy of about 25,700 GW in 2050. -``` From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and PV to 7850  GW and -``` + 12,300 GW, respectively, will be complemented by the generation of up to 2060 GW of solar thermal energy as well as limited biomass-derived (770 GW), geothermal @@ -1584,90 +1325,49 @@ of solar thermal energy as well as limited biomass-derived (770 GW), geothermal ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxv ``` (560 GW) and ocean-derived energy (around 500 GW) in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both - the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will lead to the generation of high proportions (38% - and 46%, respectively) of energy from variable power sources (PV, wind and ocean) - by 2030, which will increase to 64% and 65%, respectively, by 2050. This will - require a significant change in how the power system is operated. The main findings - of the power sector analysis are summarized in the section below. - -``` -Calculated average electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) -``` +_Calculated average electricity-generation costs_ in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 6 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, these generation costs will increase, - -assuming rising CO 2 emission costs in the future, until 2050, when they reach - +assuming rising CO[^2]: emission costs in the future, until 2050, when they reach 10.6 ct/kWh. The generation costs will increase in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - until 2030, when they will reach 9 ct/kWh, and then drop to 7 ct/kWh by 2050. In - both alternative scenarios, the generation costs will be around 3.5  ct/kWh lower - than in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 2050. Note that these estimates of generation costs - do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage and - other load-balancing measures. - -``` -Total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C Scenario will increase from today’s -``` +_Total electricity supply costs_ in the 5.0 °C Scenario will increase from today’s $1560 billion/year to more than $5 500 billion/year in 2050, due to the growth in - demand and increasing fossil fuel prices. In both alternative scenarios, the total - supply costs will be $5050 billion/year in 2050, about 8% lower than in the 5.0 °C - Scenario. - -``` -Global investment in power generation between 2015 and 2050  in the 2.0  °C -``` +_Global investment in power generation_ between 2015 and 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario will be around $49,000 billion, which will include additional power plants - to produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels and the plant replacement costs at the end - of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approximately $1360 billion - per year on average, which is $28,600  billion more than in the 5.0  °C Scenario - ($20,400  billion). An investment of around $51,000  billion for power generation - will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario ($1420 billion per - year on average). In both alternative scenarios, the world will shift almost 95% of - its total energy investment to renewables and cogeneration. _Fuel Cost Savings_ Because renewable energy has no fuel costs other than biomass, - the cumulative savings in fuel cost in the 2.0  °C Scenario will reach a total of - $26,300 billion in 2050, equivalent to $730 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel - costs in the 2.0 °C Scenario will be equivalent to 90% of the energy investments in - the 5.0  °C Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5  °C Scenario will sum to - $28,800 billion or $800 billion per year. -``` -Final energy demand for heating will increase by 59% in the 5.0  °C Scenario -``` +_Final energy demand for heating_ will increase by 59% in the 5.0  °C Scenario from 151 EJ/year in 2015 to around 240 EJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 36% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario, relative to that in the 5.0 °C case, and by 40% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. _Global Heat Supply_ In 2015, renewables supplied around 20% of the final global @@ -1680,82 +1380,46 @@ energy demand for heating, mainly from biomass. Renewable energy will provide Executive Summary - xxvi demand in 2050. This will include the direct use of electricity for heating, which - will increase by a factor of 4.2–4.5 between 2015 and 2050 and will constitute a - final share of 26% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 30% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` -Estimated investments in renewable heating technologies to 2050 will amount to -``` +_Estimated investments in renewable heating technologies_ to 2050 will amount to more than $13,200 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments for plant - replacement after their economic lifetimes)—approximately $368 billion per year. - The largest share of investment is assumed to be for heat pumps (around - $5700  billion), followed by solar collectors and geothermal heat use. The 1.5  °C - Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technologies. However, the - lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0  °C Scenario) will result in a lower - average annual investment of around $344 billion per year. - -``` -Energy demand in the transport sector will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario from -``` +_Energy demand in the transport sector_ will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario from around 97 EJ/year in 2015 by 50% to 146 EJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, - assumed changes in technical, structural and behavioural factors will reduce this by - 66% (96  EJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0  °C Scenario. Additional modal - shifts, technological changes and a reduction in the transport demand will lead to - even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 74% (or 108 EJ/year) in 2050 - compared with the 5.0 °C case. _Transport Energy Supply_ By 2030, electricity will provide 12% (2700 TWh/year) - of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and, in 2050, - this share will be 47% (6500 TWh/year). In 2050, around 8430 PJ/year of hydrogen - will be used as a complementary renewable option in the transport sector. In the - 1.5  °C Scenario, the annual electricity demand will be about 5200  TWh in 2050. - The 1.5  °C Scenario also assumes a hydrogen demand of 6850  PJ/year by 2050. - Biofuel use will be limited to a maximum of around 12,000 PJ/year in the 2.0 °C - Scenario. Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be - introduced, with a maximum amount of 5820 PJ/year in 2050. Because of the lower - overall energy demand in transport, biofuel use will decrease in the 1.5 °C Scenario - to a maximum of 10,000 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount - to 6300 PJ/year. -``` -Global primary energy demand in the 2.0  °C Scenario will decrease by 21% -``` +_Global primary energy demand_ in the 2.0  °C Scenario will decrease by 21% from around 556 EJ/year in 2015 to 439 EJ/year. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, - the overall primary energy demand will decrease by 48% by 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario (5.0  °C, 837 EJ in 2050). In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the primary energy - demand will be even lower (412 EJ) in 2050 because the final energy demand and - conversion losses will be lower. _Global Primary Energy Supply_ Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly @@ -1775,38 +1439,25 @@ consumption of natural gas in the 5.0  °C Scenario will sum to 5580  EJ, the ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxvii ``` cumulative coal consumption will be about 6360 EJ, and the crude oil consumption - to 6380  EJ.  In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand is 3140  EJ, the - cumulative coal demand 2340  EJ and the cumulative oil demand 2960  EJ.  Even - lower fossil fuel use will be achieved under the 1.5 °C Scenario: 2710 EJ for natural - gas, 1570 EJ for coal and 2230 EJ for oil. In both alternative scenarios, the primary - -energy supply in 2050 will be based on 100% renewable energy (Fig. 5). +energy supply in 2050 will be based on 100% renewable energy (Fig. [^5]:). _Bunker Fuels_ In 2015, the annual bunker fuel consumption was in the order of - 16,000 PJ, of which 7400 PJ was for aviation and 8600 PJ for navigation. Annual - -CO 2 emissions from bunker fuels accounted for 1.3 Gt in 2015, approximately 4% - -of the global energy-related CO 2 emissions. In the 5.0  °C case, we assume the - +CO[^2]: emissions from bunker fuels accounted for 1.3 Gt in 2015, approximately 4% +of the global energy-related CO[^2]: emissions. In the 5.0  °C case, we assume the development of the final energy demand for bunkers according to the IEA World - Energy Outlook 2017, Current Policies scenario. This will lead to a further increase - in the demand for bunker fuels by 120% until 2050 compared with the base year -2015. Because no substitution with “green” fuels is assumed, CO 2 emissions will - +2015. Because no substitution with “green” fuels is assumed, CO2 emissions will rise by the same order of magnitude. Although the use of hydrogen and electricity in aviation is technically feasible (at least for regional transport) and synthetic gas @@ -1821,9 +1472,8 @@ use of sustainable biomass potentials and the complementary central production o power-to-liquid synfuels. -``` In the 2.0 °C Scenario, this production is assumed to take place in three world -``` + regions: Africa, the Middle East and OECD Pacific (especially Australia), where synfuel generation for export is expected to be most economic. The 1.5 °C Scenario @@ -1840,34 +1490,34 @@ capacities. In the case of liquid bunker fuels, these additional renewable 0 ``` ``` -100,00 0 +100,000 ``` ``` -200,00 0 +200,000 ``` ``` -300,00 0 +300,000 ``` ``` -400,00 0 +400,000 ``` ``` -500,00 0 +500,000 ``` ``` -600,00 0 +600,000 ``` ``` -700,00 0 +700,000 ``` ``` -800,00 0 +800,000 ``` ``` -900,00 0 +900,000 ``` ``` -REF2.0°C1.5°CREF2.0°C1.5°C REF2.0°C1.5°CREF2.0°C1.5°C REF2.0°C1.5°C +REF2.0°C1.5°CREF 2.0°C1.5°C REF2.0°C1.5°CREF 2.0°C1.5°C REF2.0°C1.5°C 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -1894,38 +1544,22 @@ scenarios Executive Summary - xxviii -power- generation capacities could amount to 1100 GW in the 2.0 °C Scenario and - +power-generation capacities could amount to 1100 GW in the 2.0 °C Scenario and more than 1200 GW in the 1.5 °C Scenario if the flexible utilization of 4000 full- - load hours per year can be achieved. However, such a scenario requires high elec- - trolyser capacities and high-volume hydrogen storage to ensure not only flexibility - in the power system but also high utilization rates by downstream synthesis pro- - cesses (e.g. via Fischer-Tropsch plants). - -``` -Annual global energy-related CO 2 emissions will increase by 40% in the 5.0 °C -``` +_Annual global energy-related CO_[^2]: _emissions_ will increase by 40% in the 5.0 °C Scenario, from 31,180 Mt in 2015 to more than 43,500 Mt in 2050. The stringent - mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall - to 7070 Mt in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 2650 Mt in the 1.5 °C Scenario, - with further reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative - -CO 2 emissions from 2015 until 2050 will sum to 1388 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C - +CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will sum to 1388 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 - -will be 587 Gt and 450 Gt, respectively. Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions - +will be 587 Gt and 450 Gt, respectively. Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 68% in the 1.5  °C Scenario compared with the 5.0  °C case. Thus, a rapid reduction in annual emissions will @@ -1936,7 +1570,7 @@ occur in both alternative scenarios. Global and regional long-term energy results were used to conduct a detailed power -sector analysis with the methodology described in Sect. 1.7 of Chap. 3. Both the +sector analysis with the methodology described in Sect. 1.7 of Chap. [^3]:. Both the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios rely on high proportions of variable solar and wind @@ -1971,32 +1605,22 @@ required to develop a more detailed understanding of the power infrastructure ne _Development of Global Power Plant Capacities_ The size of the global market for renewable power plants will increase significantly under the 2.0 °C Scenario. The - annual market for solar PV power must increase by a factor of 4.5, from close to - 100 GW in 2017 to an average of 454 GW by 2030. The annual onshore wind mar- - ket must expand to 172 GW by 2025, about three times higher than in 2017. The - offshore wind market will continue to increase in importance within the renewable - power sector. By 2050, offshore wind installations will increase to 32  GW annu- - ally—11 times higher than in 2017. Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants will - play an important role in the generation of dispatchable solar electricity to supply ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxix ``` bulk power, especially for industry, and to provide secured capacities to power sys- - tems. By 2030, the annual CSP market must increase to 78  GW, compared with - 3 GW in 2020 and only 0.1 GW in 2017. ``` @@ -2027,106 +1651,59 @@ remaining until 2025. _Utilization of Power Plant Capacities_ On a global scale, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the shares of variable renewable power generation will increase from 4% - in 2015 to 38% and 46%, respectively, by 2030, and will increase to 64% and 65%, - respectively, by 2050. The reason for the variations in the two cases is the different - assumptions made regarding efficiency measures, which may lead to lower overall - demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. During the same period, - dispatchable renewables—CSP plants, bioenergy generation, geothermal energy - and hydropower—will remain around 32% until 2030 on a global average and then - decrease slightly to 29% under the 2.0 °C Scenario (and to 27% under the 1.5 °C - Scenario) by 2050. The system share of dispatchable conventional generation - capacities—mainly coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy—will decrease from a global - average of 60% in 2015 to only 14% in 2040. By 2050, the remaining dispatchable - conventional gas power plants will be converted to operate on hydrogen as a - synthetic fuel, to avoid stranded investments and to achieve higher dispatch power - capacities. Increased variable shares—mainly in the USA, the Middle East region - and Australia—will produce hydrogen for local and the export markets, as fuel for - both renewable power plants and the transport sector. _Development of Maximum and Residual Loads for the Ten World Regions_ The - maximum load will increase in all regions and within similar ranges under both the - 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The load in OECD countries will rise most strongly in - response to increased electrification, mainly in the transport sector, whereas the load - in developing countries will increase as the overall electricity demand increases in - all sectors. -``` The most significant increase will be in Africa, where the maximum load will -``` surge by 534% over the entire modelling period due to favourable economic - development and increased access to energy services by households. In OECD - Pacific (South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand), efficiency measures will Executive Summary - xxx reduce the maximum load to 87% by 2030 relative to that in the base year, and it - will increase to 116% by 2050 with the expansion of electric mobility and the - increased electrification of the process heat supply in the industry sector. The 1.5 °C - Scenario calculates slightly higher loads in 2030 due to the accelerated electrifica- - tion of the industry, heating and business sectors, except in three regions (the Middle - East, India and Non-OECD Asia Other Asia), where the early application of effi- - ciency measures will lead to an overall lower demand at the end of the modelling - period, for the same GDP and population growth rates. - -``` In this analysis, the residual load is the load remaining after the variable renew- -``` able power generation. Negative values indicate that the energy generated from - solar and wind exceeds the actual load and must be exported to other regions, stored - or curtailed. In each region, the average generation should be consistent with the - average load. However, maximum loads and maximum generations do not usually - occur at the same time, so surplus electricity can be produced and must be exported - or stored as far as possible. In rare individual cases, solar- or wind-based generation - plants can also temporarily reduce their output to a lower load, or some plants can - be shut down. Any reduction in energy generation from solar and wind sources in - response to low demands is defined as “curtailment”. In this analysis, curtailment - rates of up to 5% by 2030 and 10% by 2050 are assumed to have no substantial - negative economic impact on the operation of power plants and therefore will not - -trigger an increase in storage capacities. Figure 6 illustrates the development of - +trigger an increase in storage capacities. Figure [^6]: illustrates the development of maximum loads across all ten world regions under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. _Global Storage and Dispatch Capacities_ The world market for storage and dis- @@ -2163,9 +1740,8 @@ to 11% (975 h/year) by 2050, converting the gas sector from a supply-driven to service-driven industry. -``` At around 2030, the 1.5 °C Scenario will require more storage throughput than -``` + the 2.0 °C Scenario, but the storage demands for the two scenarios will be equal at the end of the modelling period. It is assumed that the higher throughput can be @@ -2177,37 +1753,24 @@ managed with equally higher installed capacities, leading to full-load hours of ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxxi ``` _Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry_ The implementation of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will have a significant impact on the global fossil - fuel industry. While this may appear to be stating the obvious, current climate - debates have not yet led to an open debate about the orderly withdrawal from the - coal, oil and gas extraction industries. Instead, the political debate about coal, oil - and gas is focused on the security of supply and price security. However, mitigating - climate change is only possible when fossil fuels are phased out. -``` Coal: Under the 5.0  °C Scenario, the required production of thermal coal— -``` excluding coal for nonenergy uses, such as steel production—will remain at 2015 - levels, with an annual increase of around 1% per year until 2050. Under the 2.0 °C - Scenario, coal production will decline sharply between 2020 and 2030 at a rate of - around 6% per year. By 2030, global coal production will be equal to China’s annual - production in 2017, at 3.7 billion tonnes, whereas that volume will be reached in - 2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario. ``` @@ -2248,62 +1811,34 @@ Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%] Max Load Development (Base year 2020) Executive Summary - xxxii -``` Oil: Oil production in the 5.0  °C Scenario will grow steadily by 1% annually -``` until the end of the modelling period in 2050. Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, oil produc- - tion will decline by 3% annually until 2025 and then by 5% per year until 2030. - After 2030, oil production will decline by around 7% per year on average, until the - oil produced for energy use is phased out entirely by 2050. The oil production - capacity of the USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2017 would be sufficient to supply - the global demand in 2035 calculated under the 2.0 °C Scenario. The 1.5 °C Scenario - reduces the required production volume by half by 2030, reducing it further to the - equivalent of the 2017 production volume of just one of the three largest oil produc- - ers (USA, Saudi Arabia or Russia) by 2040. - -``` Gas: In the 5.0 °C Scenario, gas production will increase steadily by 2% a year -``` for the next two decades, leading to an overall production increase of about 50% by 2050. Compared with coal and oil, the gas phase-out will be significantly slower in - the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. These scenarios also assume that the gas - infrastructure, such as gas pipelines and power plants, will be used afterwards for - the hydrogen and/or renewable methane produced with electricity from renewable - sources. Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, gas production will only decrease by 0.2% per - year until 2025, by 1% until 2030 and, on average, by 4% annually until 2040. This - represents a rather slow phase-out and will allow the gas industry to gradually - transfer to hydrogen. The phase-out in the 1.5 °C Scenario is equally slow, and a - 4%/year reduction will occur after 2025. - -``` The trajectories predicted by the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios for global coal, oil -``` and gas production are consistent with the Paris Agreement targets and can be used - to calculate possible employment effects, in terms of job losses in the fossil fuel - industry, job gains in the renewable energy industry and options for transitioning the - gas industry into an industry based on renewably produced hydrogen. **Employment** The transition to a 100% renewable energy system is not just a tech- @@ -2341,54 +1876,36 @@ but the results are presented at the global level. ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxxiii ``` _Employment—Quantitative Results_ The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will generate - more energy-sector jobs in the world as a whole at every stage of the projection. The - 1.5  °C Scenario will increase renewable energy capacities faster than the 2.0  °C - Scenario, and, therefore, employment will increase faster. By 2050, both scenarios - will create around 47 million jobs, so employment will be within similar ranges. -- In 2025, there will be 30.9 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, - -``` +• In 2025, there will be 30.9 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, 45.5 million under the 2.0 °C Scenario and 52.3 million under the 1.5 °C. -``` -- In 2030, there will be 31.7 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, - -``` +• In 2030, there will be 31.7 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, 52.9  million under the 2.0  °C Scenario and 58.5  million under the 1.5  °C Scenario. -``` -- In 2050, there will be 29.9 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, - -``` +• In 2050, there will be 29.9 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, 48.7  million under the 2.0  °C Scenario and 46.3  million under the 1.5  °C Scenario. -``` + Under the 5.0 °C Scenario, job will drop to 4% below the 2015 levels by 2020 and - then remain quite stable until 2030. Strong growth in renewable energy will lead to - an increase of 44% in total energy-sector jobs by 2025 under the 2.0 °C Scenario and - 66% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. In the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, renewable energy - jobs will account for 81% (86%) in 2025 and 87% (89%) in 2030, with PV having - the greatest share of 24% (26%), followed by biomass, wind and solar heating. _Employment—Occupational Calculations_ Jobs will increase across all occupations between 2015 and 2025, except in metal trades, which display a minor decline of -2%, as shown in Fig. 7. However, these results are not uniform across regions. For +2%, as shown in Fig. [^7]:. However, these results are not uniform across regions. For example, China and India will both experience a reduction in the number of jobs for @@ -2397,175 +1914,214 @@ managers and clerical and administrative workers between 2015 and 2025. **Mineral and Metal Requirements Under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios** Within the context of the increasing requirements for metal resources by renewable energy - and storage technologies, the rapid increases in demands for both cobalt and lithium - are of greatest concern. The demands for both metals will exceed the current - production rates by 2023 and 2022, respectively. The demands for these metals will - increase more rapidly than will that for silver, partly because solar PV is a more - established technology and silver use has become very efficient, whereas the - electrification of the transport system and the rapid expansion in lithium battery use - have only begun to accelerate in the last few years. The potential to offset primary - demand is different depending on the technology. Offsetting demand through - secondary sources of cobalt and lithium has the most potential to reduce total - primary demand, as these technologies have a shorter lifetime of approximately 10 - years. The cumulative demands for both metals will exceed current reserves, but - with high recycling rates, they can remain below the resource levels. However, there - is a delay in the period during which recycling can offset demand, because there - must be sufficient batteries in use and they must exhaust their current purpose before - they can be collected and recycled. This delay could be further extended by strategies - that reuse vehicular batteries as stationary storage, which might reduce costs in the Executive Summary - xxxiv ``` --2,0 +-2 +,0 ``` ``` 00 -,0^00 --1,0 +,0 ``` ``` 00 -,0^00 ``` ``` -0 +-1 +,0 ``` ``` -1,000, +00 +,0 +``` +``` +0 00 +1, +000, ``` ``` 000 -2,000, +2, +000, ``` ``` 000 -3,000, +3, +000, ``` ``` 000 -4,000, +4, +000, ``` ``` 000 -5,000, +5, +000, ``` ``` 000 -6,000, +6, +000, ``` ``` 000 -7,000, +7, +000, ``` ``` 000 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 15 ``` ``` 20 +``` +``` 25 ``` ``` @@ -2604,6 +2160,8 @@ EN ``` ``` GI +``` +``` NE ``` ``` @@ -2619,7 +2177,8 @@ TE CH ``` ``` -NICI +NI +CI ``` ``` AN @@ -2636,6 +2195,8 @@ ER ``` IC AL +``` +``` & ``` ``` @@ -2643,13 +2204,17 @@ AD ``` ``` MI -NIST +``` +``` +NI +ST ``` ``` RA ``` ``` -TIVE +TI +VE ``` ``` CO @@ -2661,7 +2226,8 @@ NS TRUC ``` ``` -TION +TI +ON ``` ``` TR @@ -2679,7 +2245,8 @@ ME TA ``` ``` -L TR +L +TR ``` ``` AD @@ -2697,7 +2264,8 @@ EC TR ``` ``` -ICIA +IC +IA ``` ``` NS @@ -2715,7 +2283,8 @@ AT OR ``` ``` -S & +S +& ``` ``` AS @@ -2728,6 +2297,8 @@ MB ``` ``` LE +``` +``` RS ``` ``` @@ -2749,7 +2320,9 @@ S SH ``` ``` -IP^ +IP +``` +``` CR ``` ``` @@ -2763,7 +2336,11 @@ ssil ``` ``` fu +``` +``` el +``` +``` jo ``` ``` @@ -2804,6 +2381,8 @@ Of ``` ``` fs +``` +``` ho ``` ``` @@ -2835,6 +2414,8 @@ in ``` ``` fo +``` +``` ss ``` ``` @@ -2852,7 +2433,6 @@ Division of occupations between fossil fuel and renewable energy industries in 2 ``` Executive Summary ``` - ``` xxxv ``` @@ -2862,9 +2442,8 @@ significantly reduces its demand, and this reduction is already happening as man facturers move towards lower cobalt chemistries. -``` Increasing the efficiency of the material used is potentially the most successful -``` + strategy to offset the demand for PV metals, and recycling will have a smaller impact on demand because the lifespan of solar PV panels is long and their potential @@ -2899,9 +2478,8 @@ seas, not for farmers dependent on rainfall in drought-stricken areas and not fo communities that are threatened by extreme rainfall events or more intense cyclones. -``` Here, we use probabilistic methods to examine the scenarios that have been -``` + developed to evaluate their implications for long-term temperature and sea-level rises, using models and settings that are also used in the recent IPCC Special Report @@ -2920,26 +2498,18 @@ oped in this study are unable to halt sea-level rise. In fact, a 30 cm rise in by 2100, which will continue thereafter, seems to be the unavoidable legacy of our -past use of fossil fuels, unless we remove this CO 2 from the atmosphere in much - +past use of fossil fuels, unless we remove this CO[^2]: from the atmosphere in much larger amounts than even the complete reforestation of the planet would permit. -``` Faced with the grim challenge of ongoing climate risks on the one side and the -``` many positive effects and economic benefits of switching from fossil fuels to - renewables on the other, the path is clear. A rapid shift towards a new era of smart, - renewable and sector-coupled energy supply, combined with clever demand-side - measures and adaptations to the impacts of climate change, will allow us and our - children to address the legacy of our past reliance on fossil fuels. Executive Summary - ``` xxxvii ``` @@ -2947,65 +2517,42 @@ xxxvii The authors would like to thank the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation (https://www. -leonardodicaprio.org) which funded the research for Chaps 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and - -9 and Chap. 12. Their ongoing support and dedication to this project was key and +leonardodicaprio.org) which funded the research for Chaps [^1]:, [^2]:, [^3]:, [^4]:, [^5]:, [^6]:, [^7]:, [^8]:, and +[^9]: and Chap. [^12]:. Their ongoing support and dedication to this project was key and kept all researchers highly motivated. - -``` Furthermore, we thank the German Greenpeace Foundation “Umweltstiftung -``` Greenpeace” (https://umweltstiftung-greenpeace.de/die-stiftung) for funding the - -employment calculation research documented in Chap. 10. Last but not least, our - +employment calculation research documented in Chap. [^10]:. Last but not least, our thanks also to Earthworks (earthworks.org) for funding the research about metal - -requirements presented in Chap. 11. - -``` +requirements presented in Chap. [^11]:. This project has been supported by numerous people between July 2017 and -``` November 2018, and our thanks go to each of them. A special thanks to Karl Burkart - (Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation); Melanie Stoehr and Claudia Voigt (Umweltstiftung - Greenpeace); Payal Sampat (Earthworks); Anna Leidreiter, Anna Skowron and Rob - van Riet from the World Future Council (https://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/); Dr. - Joachim Fuenfgelt from Bread for the World (https://www.brot-fuer-die-welt.de/en/ - -bread-for-the-world); and Stefan Schurig from F20—Foundations 20 (http://www. - +bread-for-the-world); and Stefan Schurig from F20—Foundations 20 ([http://www.](http://www.) foundations-20.org/) who provided initial support to make this project possible. - Finally, we would like to thank Greenpeace International and Greenpeace Germany - for their ongoing support of the Energy [R]evolution energy scenario research series - between 2004 and 2015 which resulted in the development of the long-term energy - scenario model, the basis for the long-term energy pathways. - ``` xxxix ``` #### Contents -**1 Introduction** ............................................................................................. 1 +[^1]: **Introduction**............................................................................................. 1 -``` Sven Teske and Thomas Pregger -``` -**2 State of Research** ..................................................................................... 5 -``` +[^2]: **State of Research**..................................................................................... 5 + Sven Teske, Malte Meinshausen, and Kate Dooley -``` -**3 Methodology** ............................................................................................ 25 + +[^3]: **Methodology**............................................................................................ 25 ``` Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, @@ -3013,61 +2560,56 @@ Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, Malte Meinshausen, Kate Dooley, C. Briggs, E. Dominish, D. Giurco, Nick Florin, Tom Morris, and Kriti Nagrath ``` -**4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG** .......................................... 79 +[^4]: **Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG**.......................................... 79 -``` Malte Meinshausen and Kate Dooley -``` -**5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways** .............................................. 93 -``` +[^5]: **Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways**.............................................. 93 + Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, and Sven Teske -``` -**6 Transport Transition Concepts** .............................................................. 131 + +[^6]: **Transport Transition Concepts**.............................................................. 131 ``` Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, Özcan Deniz, and Stephan Schmid ``` -**7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment** ............................................. 161 +[^7]: **Renewable Energy Resource Assessment** ............................................. 161 -``` Sven Teske, Kriti Nagrath, Tom Morris, and Kate Dooley -``` -**8 Energy Scenario Results** ......................................................................... 175 + +[^8]: **Energy Scenario Results**......................................................................... 175 ``` Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Tobias Naegler, Sonja Simon, Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, and Özcan Deniz ``` -**9 Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry** ............. 403 +[^9]: **Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry**............. 403 -``` Sven Teske -``` xl -**10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C** +[^10]: **Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C** ``` -and 1.5 °C Scenarios ............................................................................... 413 +and 1.5 °C Scenarios............................................................................... 413 Elsa Dominish, Chris Briggs, Sven Teske, and Franziska Mey ``` -**11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100%** +[^11]: **Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100%** ``` Renewable Scenarios .............................................................................. 437 Damien Giurco, Elsa Dominish, Nick Florin, Takuma Watari, and Benjamin McLellan ``` -**12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios** +[^12]: **Implications of the Developed Scenarios** ``` -for Climate Change ................................................................................. 459 +for Climate Change................................................................................. 459 Malte Meinshausen ``` -**13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations** .................................. 471 +[^13]: **Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations**.................................. 471 ``` Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Johannes Pagenkopf, @@ -3079,54 +2621,28 @@ and Damien Giurco ``` Contents ``` - ``` xli ``` Fig. 3.1 Interaction of models in this study ............................................... 30 -Fig. 3.2 OECD North America broken down into eight sub-regions ......... 33 - -Fig. 3.3 Current electricity infrastructure in China .................................... 33 - +Fig. 3.2 OECD North America broken down into eight sub-regions......... 33 +Fig. 3.3 Current electricity infrastructure in China.................................... 33 Fig. 3.4 Potential sites for onshore wind generation in Africa .................. 34 - Fig. 3.5 Existing and potential solar power sites in Central - -``` and South America ....................................................................... 35 -``` Fig. 3.6 Overview of the energy system model (EM) - -``` -as implemented in Mesap/PlaNet ................................................. 40 -``` -Fig. 3.7 Schematic representation of the [R] E24/7 model structure ......... 44 - +as implemented in Mesap/PlaNet................................................. 40 +Fig. 3.7 Schematic representation of the [R] E24/7 model structure......... 44 Fig. 3.8 Spatial concept of the [R]E 24/7 model ....................................... 47 - Fig. 3.9 Dispatch order module of the [R]E 24/7 model ........................... 50 - Fig. 3.10 Quantitative employment calculation: methodological - -``` overview ....................................................................................... 56 -``` -Fig. 3.11 Distribution of human resources required to manufacture ``` -the main components of a 50 MW solar photovoltaic -power plant. (IRENA 2017).......................................................... 58 -``` -Fig. 3.12 Differences between the raw LDF emission scenario data ........... 62 - -Fig. 3.13 The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and their absolute fossil - -``` -and industry CO 2 emissions until 2050. The energy-related CO 2 emissions pathways from the other chapters are used until 2050, and then extended beyond 2050 by either keeping -the CO 2 emissions constant (in the case of the 1.5 °C +the CO2 emissions constant (in the case of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, i.e., red and purple dashed lines beyond 2050 in the upper panel) or by keeping the percentile level within the literature-reported scenarios constant (in the @@ -3135,1668 +2651,345 @@ upper panel). The percentile rank within the other literature-reported scenarios is shown in the lower panel. The constant absolute emission level after 2050 in the case ``` -#### List of Figures - - -xlii - -``` -of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios can be seen to result -in an increasing percentile rank among all the -literature-reported scenarios (increasing purple–red line -in the lower panel). ....................................................................... 64 -``` -Fig. 3.14 Example distributions of emissions scenario characteristics ........ 66 - -Fig. 4.1 Land-use sequestration pathways showing annual - -``` -sequestration rates over time ........................................................ 80 -``` -Fig. 4.2 Land-use-related CO 2 emission and sequestration rates ............... 82 - -Fig. 4.3 Global and regional methane emissions from fossil, - -``` -industrial, and land-use-related sources ....................................... 84 -``` -Fig. 4.4 Global and regional methane emissions from fossil, - -``` -industrial, and land-use-related sources ....................................... 85 -``` -Fig. 4.5 Global SF 6 emission levels from literature-reported scenarios - -``` -and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 86 -``` -Fig. 4.6 Global tetrafluoromethane (CF 4 ) emissions from - -``` -the collection of assessed literature- reported scenarios -and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 86 -``` -Fig. 4.7 Global and regional sulfate dioxide (SOX) emissions - -``` -in the literature-reported scenarios considered -and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 87 -``` -Fig. 4.8 Global and regional nitrate aerosol (NOX) emissions - -``` -in the literature-reported scenarios considered -and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 88 -``` -Fig. 4.9 Global and regional black carbon BC emissions - -``` -in the literature-reported scenarios considered -and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 89 -``` -Fig. 4.10 Global and regional organic carbon OC emissions - -``` -in the literature-reported scenarios considered -and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 90 -``` -Fig. 5.1 Historic development and projections of oil prices - -``` -(bottom lines) and historical world oil production -and projections (top lines) by the IEA according -to Wachtmeister et al. (2018) ........................................................ 104 -``` -Fig. 5.2 Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 - -``` -(IRENA 2014) .............................................................................. 111 -``` -Fig. 5.3 Development of the specific final energy use (per $GDP) - -``` -in all stationary sectors (i.e., without transport) per world -region under the 2.0 °C Scenario (left) -and 1.5 °C Scenario (right) ........................................................... 119 -``` -Fig. 5.4 Development of the average global RES shares - -``` -in total power generation in the 2.0 °C Scenario .......................... 122 -``` -Fig. 5.5 Development of the average global RES shares of future - -``` -heat generation options in ‘Industry’ in the 2.0 °C scenario ........ 124 -``` -``` List of Figures -``` - -``` -xliii -``` -Fig. 5.6 Development of the average global shares of future - -``` -heat-generation options in the ‘Residential and other’ -sector under the 2.0 °C scenario ................................................... 125 -``` -Fig. 6.1 World final energy use by transport mode in 2015 ....................... 133 - -Fig. 6.2 Transport mode performances of road, rail, and aviation ............. 133 - -Fig. 6.3 Powertrain split for all transport modes in 2015 - -``` -by transport performance (pkm or tkm) ....................................... 134 -``` -Fig. 6.4 Final energy use by world transport in 2015 - -``` -according to region ....................................................................... 134 -``` -Fig. 6.5 Powertrain split for all transport modes in 2050 - -``` -under the 5.0 °C Scenario in terms of transport performance ...... 136 -``` -Fig. 6.6 Powertrain split (fleet) of passenger cars in selected - -``` -regions in 2030 ( left ) and 2050 ( right ) under -the 2.0 °C Scenario ....................................................................... 137 -``` -Fig. 6.7 Battery and trolley electric bus share of total bus pkm - -``` -in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( left ) and fuel-cell electric bus share -of total bus pkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( right ) ............................ 138 -``` -Fig. 6.8 Electrification of passenger rail ( _left_ ) and freight rail ( _right_ ) - -``` -under the 2.0 °C Scenario (in PJ of final energy demand) ........... 138 -``` -Fig. 6.9 Electricity-performed pkm in domestic aviation under - -``` -the 2.0 °C Scenario ....................................................................... 139 -``` -Fig. 6.10 Powertrain split of the world passenger car fleet in the 2.0 °C - -``` -Scenario ( left ) and 1.5 °C Scenario ( right ) ................................... 140 -``` -Fig. 6.11 Final energy demand in urban and inter-urban passenger - -``` -transport modes in 2015 (world averages) .................................... 140 -``` -Fig. 6.12 Final energy demand in freight transport modes in 2015 - -``` -(world averages) ........................................................................... 141 -``` -Fig. 6.13 World average energy consumption development for - -``` -passenger cars per powertrain in 2015 ( left ) and 2050 ( right ) ..... 142 -``` -Fig. 6.14 Average global energy intensities of truck drivetrain - -``` -technologies in 2015 and 2050 ..................................................... 143 -``` -Fig. 6.15 Average global energy intensities of bus drivetrain - -``` -technologies in 2015 ( left ) and 2050 ( right ) ................................. 144 -``` -Fig. 6.16 Average global energy intensities of two-wheel vehicles - -``` -( left ) and three-wheel vehicles ( right ) by drivetrain technology -in 2015 ( left bar ) and 2050 ( right bar ) ......................................... 145 -``` -Fig. 6.17 MJ/tkm of freight rail trains ( _left_ ) and MJ/pkm of passenger - -``` -rail trains ( right ) for 2015 ( left ) and 2050 ( right ) ......................... 146 -``` -Fig. 6.18 Region-specific MJ/tkm and MJ/pkm in 2015 and 2050 for - -``` -freight rail trains ( left ) and passenger rail trains ( right ) ............... 146 -``` -Fig. 6.19 Shares of bio- and synfuels in all world regions - -``` -under all scenarios ........................................................................ 147 -``` -Fig. 6.20 Relative growth in world transport demand - -``` -(2015 = 100% pkm/tkm) in the 5.0 °C scenario ........................... 150 -``` -List of Figures - - -xliv - -Fig. 6.21 Relative growth in world transport demand - -``` -(2015 = 100% pkm/tkm) in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( left ) -and 1.5 °C Scenario ( right ) ........................................................... 150 -``` -Fig. 6.22 Regional pkm development .......................................................... 151 - -Fig. 6.23 World pkm development in all scenarios ...................................... 152 - -Fig. 6.24 World pkm development in the 2.0 °C Scenario .......................... 152 - -Fig. 6.25 Pkm development in OECD Europe ( _left_ ) Africa (middle), - -``` -and China ( right ) in the 2.0 °C Scenario ...................................... 153 -``` -Fig. 6.26 World tkm development in all scenarios....................................... 154 - -Fig. 6.27 Regional tkm development ........................................................... 154 - -Fig. 6.28 World tkm development in the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, - -``` -and 1.5 °C Scenarios ..................................................................... 156 -``` -Fig. 6.29 Road tkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario .................................................. 156 - -Fig. 6.30 Rail tkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario .................................................... 157 - -Fig. 6.31 Share of rail tkm in total rail + road tkm - -``` -in the 2.0 °C Scenario ................................................................... 157 -``` -Fig. 7.1 Electricity infrastructure in Africa—power plants - -``` -(over 1 MW) and high-voltage transmission lines ....................... 166 -``` -Fig. 7.2 Solar potential in Africa ................................................................ 166 - -Fig. 7.3 Europe’s potential for utility-scale solar power plants ................. 167 - -Fig. 7.4 OECD North America: existing and potential - -``` -wind power sites ........................................................................... 168 -``` -Fig. 7.5 Latin America: potential and existing wind power sites ............... 169 - -Fig. 8.1 Global: projection of final energy (per $ GDP) intensity - -``` -by scenario .................................................................................... 176 -``` -Fig. 8.2 Global: projection of total final energy demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios (without non- energy use or heat from -combined heat and power [CHP] autoproducers) ......................... 177 -``` -Fig. 8.3 Global: development of gross electricity demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 178 -``` -Fig. 8.4 Global: development of final energy demand for transport - -``` -by mode in the scenarios .............................................................. 179 -``` -Fig. 8.5 Global: development of heat demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 179 -``` -Fig. 8.6 Global: development of the final energy demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 180 -``` -Fig. 8.7 Global: development of electricity-generation structure - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 181 -``` -Fig. 8.8 Global: development of total electricity supply costs - -``` -and specific electricity generation costs in the scenarios ............. 182 -``` -Fig. 8.9 Global: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 183 -``` -Fig. 8.10 Global: development of heat supply by energy carrier - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 184 -``` -``` -List of Figures -``` - -``` -xlv -``` -Fig. 8.11 Global: development of investment in renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 186 -``` -Fig. 8.12 Global: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 187 -``` -Fig. 8.13 Global: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (since 2015) in the -scenarios (‘Savings’ = lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario) ........... 188 -``` -Fig. 8.14 Global: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios ...................................... 189 -``` -Fig. 8.15 Global: scenario of bunker fuel demand for aviation - -``` -and navigation and the resulting cumulative CO 2 emissions ........ 190 -``` -Fig. 8.16 Development of maximum load in 10 world regions - -``` -in 2020, 2030, and 2050 in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios ........ 202 -``` -Fig. 8.17 OECD North America: development of final energy - -``` -demand by sector in the scenarios ................................................ 210 -``` -Fig. 8.18 OECD North America: development of electricity-generation - -``` -structure in the scenarios .............................................................. 212 -``` -Fig. 8.19 OECD North America: development of total electricity - -``` -supply costs and specific electricity- generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 213 -``` -Fig. 8.20 OECD North America: investment shares for power - -``` -generation in the scenarios ........................................................... 214 -``` -Fig. 8.21 OECD North America: development of heat supply - -``` -by energy carrier in the scenarios ................................................. 215 -``` -Fig. 8.22 OECD North America: development of investments - -``` -in renewable heat generation technologies in the scenarios ......... 216 -``` -Fig. 8.23 OECD North America: final energy consumption - -``` -by transport in the scenarios ......................................................... 218 -``` -Fig. 8.24 OECD North America: development of CO 2 emissions - -``` -by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) -in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with -the 5.0 °C Scenario) ...................................................................... 219 -``` -Fig. 8.25 OECD North America: projection of total primary - -``` -energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios -(including electricity import balance) .......................................... 220 -``` -Fig. 8.26 Latin America: development of final energy demand - -``` -by sector in the scenarios .............................................................. 231 -``` -Fig. 8.27 Latin America: development of electricity-generation - -``` -structure in the scenarios .............................................................. 232 -``` -Fig. 8.28 Latin America: development of total electricity supply - -``` -costs and specific electricity- generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 233 -``` -Fig. 8.29 Latin America: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 235 -``` -List of Figures - - -xlvi - -Fig. 8.30 Latin America: development of heat supply by energy - -``` -carrier in the scenarios .................................................................. 236 -``` -Fig. 8.31 Latin America: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 237 -``` -Fig. 8.32 Latin America: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 239 -``` -Fig. 8.33 Latin America: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios -(‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ........ 240 -``` -Fig. 8.34 Latin America: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios (including -electricity import balance) ............................................................ 241 -``` -Fig. 8.35 OECD Europe: development in the scenarios .............................. 251 - -Fig. 8.36 OECD Europe: development of electricity-generation - -``` -structure in the scenarios .............................................................. 253 -``` -Fig. 8.37 OECD Europe: development of total electricity supply - -``` -costs and specific electricity- generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 253 -``` -Fig. 8.38 OECD Europe: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 255 -``` -Fig. 8.39 OECD Europe: development of heat supply by energy - -``` -carrier in the scenarios .................................................................. 256 -``` -Fig. 8.40 OECD Europe: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 257 -``` -Fig. 8.41 OECD Europe: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 259 -``` -Fig. 8.42 OECD Europe: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios -(‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ........ 260 -``` -Fig. 8.43 OECD Europe: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios (including -electricity import balance) ............................................................ 261 -``` -Fig. 8.44 Africa: development of final energy demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 269 -``` -Fig. 8.45 Africa: development of electricity-generation structure - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 271 -``` -Fig. 8.46 Africa: development of total electricity supply costs - -``` -and specific electricity-generation costs in the scenarios ............. 272 -``` -Fig. 8.47 Africa: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 274 -``` -Fig. 8.48 Africa: development of heat supply by energy carrier - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 274 -``` -Fig. 8.49 Africa: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 276 -``` -``` -List of Figures -``` - -``` -xlvii -``` -Fig. 8.50 Africa: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 278 -``` -Fig. 8.51 Africa: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios -(‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ........ 279 -``` -Fig. 8.52 Africa: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios (including -electricity import balance) ............................................................ 279 -``` -Fig. 8.53 Middle East: development of the final energy demand - -``` -by sector in the scenarios .............................................................. 287 -``` -Fig. 8.54 Middle East: development of electricity-generation - -``` -structure in the scenarios .............................................................. 289 -``` -Fig. 8.55 Middle East: development of total electricity supply - -``` -costs and specific electricity- generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 290 -``` -Fig. 8.56 Middle East: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 292 -``` -Fig. 8.57 Middle East: development of heat supply by energy - -``` -carrier in the scenarios .................................................................. 292 -``` -Fig. 8.58 Middle East: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 294 -``` -Fig. 8.59 Middle East: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 296 -``` -Fig. 8.60 Middle East: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios -(‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ........ 297 -``` -Fig. 8.61 Middle East: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios (including -electricity import balance) ............................................................ 297 -``` -Fig. 8.62 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of the final - -``` -energy demand by sector in the scenarios .................................... 306 -``` -Fig. 8.63 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of - -``` -electricity-generation structure in the scenarios ........................... 309 -``` -Fig. 8.64 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of total electricity - -``` -supply costs and specific electricity- generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 309 -``` -Fig. 8.65 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: investment shares for power - -``` -generation in the scenarios ........................................................... 311 -``` -Fig. 8.66 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of heat supply - -``` -by energy carrier in the scenarios ................................................. 312 -``` -Fig. 8.67 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of investments - -``` -for renewable heat-generation technologies in the scenarios ....... 314 -``` -Fig. 8.68 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: final energy consumption by - -``` -transport in the scenarios .............................................................. 315 -``` -List of Figures - - -xlviii - -Fig. 8.69 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of CO 2 emissions - -``` -by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) -in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared -with the 5.0 °C Scenario) .............................................................. 316 -``` -Fig. 8.70 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: projection of total primary - -``` -energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios -(including electricity import balance) .......................................... 317 -``` -Fig. 8.71 Non-OECD Asia: development of the final energy - -``` -demand by sector in the scenarios ................................................ 325 -``` -Fig. 8.72 Non-OECD Asia: development of electricity-generation - -``` -structure in the scenarios .............................................................. 327 -``` -Fig. 8.73 Non-OECD Asia: development of total electricity supply - -``` -costs and specific electricity generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 328 -``` -Fig. 8.74 Non-OECD Asia: investment shares for power - -``` -generation in the scenarios ........................................................... 329 -``` -Fig. 8.75 Non-OECD Asia: development of heat supply - -``` -by energy carrier in the scenarios ................................................. 330 -``` -Fig. 8.76 Non-OECD Asia: development of investments - -``` -for renewable heat-generation technologies in the scenarios ....... 332 -``` -Fig. 8.77 Non-OECD Asia: final energy consumption - -``` -by transport in the scenarios ......................................................... 333 -``` -Fig. 8.78 Non-OECD Asia: development of CO 2 emissions - -``` -by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) -in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared -with the 5.0 °C Scenario) .............................................................. 334 -``` -Fig. 8.79 Non-OECD Asia: projection of total primary energy - -``` -demand (PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios -(including electricity import balance) .......................................... 335 -``` -Fig. 8.80 India: development of final energy demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 345 -``` -Fig. 8.81 India: development of electricity-generation structure - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 347 -``` -Fig. 8.82 India: development of total electricity supply costs - -``` -and specific electricity generation costs in the scenarios ............. 348 -``` -Fig. 8.83 India: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 349 -``` -Fig. 8.84 India: development of heat supply by energy carrier - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 350 -``` -Fig. 8.85 India: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 352 -``` -Fig. 8.86 India: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 353 -``` -Fig. 8.87 India: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios -(‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ........ 354 -``` -``` -List of Figures -``` - -``` -xlix -``` -Fig. 8.88 India: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) - -``` -by energy carrier in the scenarios (including electricity -import balance) ............................................................................. 355 -``` -Fig. 8.89 China: development of final energy demand by sector - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 361 -``` -Fig. 8.90 China: development of electricity-generation structure - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 363 -``` -Fig. 8.91 China: development of total electricity supply costs - -``` -and specific electricity-generation costs in the scenarios ............. 364 -``` -Fig. 8.92 China: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 366 -``` -Fig. 8.93 China: development of heat supply by energy carrier - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 366 -``` -Fig. 8.94 China: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 369 -``` -Fig. 8.95 China: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 370 -``` -Fig. 8.96 China: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) -in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared -with the 5.0 °C Scenario) .............................................................. 371 -``` -Fig. 8.97 China: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios (including -electricity import balance) ............................................................ 371 -``` -Fig. 8.98 OECD Pacific: development of final energy demand - -``` -by sector in the scenarios .............................................................. 381 -``` -Fig. 8.99 OECD Pacific: development of electricity-generation - -``` -structure in the scenarios .............................................................. 383 -``` -Fig. 8.100 OECD Pacific: development of total electricity - -``` -supply costs and specific electricity- generation costs -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 384 -``` -Fig. 8.101 OECD Pacific: investment shares for power generation - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 385 -``` -Fig. 8.102 OECD Pacific: development of heat supply by energy - -``` -carrier in the scenarios .................................................................. 386 -``` -Fig. 8.103 OECD Pacific: development of investments for renewable - -``` -heat-generation technologies in the scenarios .............................. 388 -``` -Fig. 8.104 OECD Pacific: final energy consumption by transport - -``` -in the scenarios ............................................................................. 389 -``` -Fig. 8.105 OECD Pacific: development of CO 2 emissions by sector - -``` -and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) -in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared -with the 5.0 °C Scenario) .............................................................. 390 -``` -Fig. 8.106 OECD Pacific: projection of total primary energy demand - -``` -(PED) by energy carrier in the scenarios (including -electricity import balance) ............................................................ 391 -``` -List of Figures - - -l - -Fig. 9.1 Global coal production in 1981–2017 - -``` -(BP 2018—Statistical Review) ..................................................... 405 -``` -Fig. 9.2 Global coal production until 2050 under - -``` -the three scenarios ........................................................................ 405 -``` -Fig. 9.3 Global oil production in 1965–2017 - -``` -(BP 2018—Statistical Review) ..................................................... 406 -``` -Fig. 9.4 Global oil production until 2050 under - -``` -the three scenarios ........................................................................ 407 -``` -Fig. 9.5 Global gas production in 1970–2017 - -``` -(BP 2018—Statistical Review) ..................................................... 408 -``` -Fig. 9.6 Global gas production until 2050 under - -``` -the three scenarios ........................................................................ 408 -``` -Fig. 10.1 World employment in the energy sector under - -``` -the 5.0 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios ( left ) and the 5.0 °C -and 1.5 °C Scenarios ( right ) ......................................................... 418 -``` -Fig. 10.2 Distribution of human resources required to manufacture - -``` -the main components of a 50 MW solar photovoltaic -power plant. (IRENA 2017a) ........................................................ 420 -``` -Fig. 10.3 Division of occupations between fossil fuels and renewable - -``` -energy in 2015 and 2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario .................... 427 -``` -Fig. 10.4 Division of occupations between fossil fuels and - -``` -renewable energy in 2015 and 2025 under -the 2.0 °C Scenario ....................................................................... 428 -``` -Fig. 10.5 Employment changes between 2015 and 2025 - -``` -by occupational breakdown under the 2.0 °C Scenario ................ 433 -``` -Fig. 10.6 Employment changes between 2015 and 2025 - -``` -by occupational breakdown under the 1.5 °C Scenario ................ 434 -``` -Fig. 11.1 Overview of key metal requirements and supply - -``` -chain for solar PV ......................................................................... 439 -``` -Fig. 11.2 Overview of key metal requirements and supply - -``` -chain for wind power .................................................................... 440 -``` -Fig. 11.3 Overview of key metal requirements and supply - -``` -chain for LIB and EV ................................................................... 441 -``` -Fig. 11.4 Cumulative demand from renewable energy - -``` -and transport technologies to 2050 compared with reserves ........ 446 -``` -Fig. 11.5 Annual demand from renewable energy and storage - -``` -technologies in 2050 compared with current production -rates (note that scale varies across the metals) ............................. 446 -``` -Fig. 11.6 Annual primary demand for cobalt from EVs and storage ........... 447 - -Fig. 11.7 Cumulative primary demand for cobalt from EVs - -``` -and storage by 2050 ...................................................................... 447 -``` -Fig. 11.8 Annual primary demand for lithium from EVs - -``` -and storage .................................................................................... 448 -``` -Fig. 11.9 Cumulative primary demand for lithium from EVs - -``` -and storage by 2050 ...................................................................... 449 -``` -``` -List of Figures -``` - -``` -li -``` -Fig. 11.10 Annual primary demand for silver from solar PV (c-Si) .............. 449 - -Fig. 11.11 Cumulative primary demand for silver from solar PV - -``` -(c-Si) by 2050 ............................................................................... 450 -``` -Fig. 11.12 Top five oil-producing countries (left) versus - -``` -lithium-producing countries (right) .............................................. 453 -``` -Fig. 12.1 Global CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O concentrations under - -``` -various scenarios. The so-called SSP scenarios are going -to inform the Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC, -the RCP scenarios are the previous generation of scenarios -and the LDF scenarios are those developed in this study ............. 462 -``` -Fig. 12.2 CO 2 equivalence concentrations and radiative forcing - -``` -of main IPCC scenarios for the forthcoming Sixth -Assessment (so-called SSP scenarios), the RCP scenarios -underlying the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report and -the LDF scenarios developed in this study ................................... 463 -``` -Fig. 12.3 Global cumulative CO2 emissions – 2.0 °C and - -``` -1.5 °C scenarios ............................................................................ 464 -``` -Fig. 12.4 Global-mean surface air temperature projections ......................... 467 - -Fig. 12.5 Global-mean sea level rise projections under the three - -``` -scenarios developed in this study ................................................. 468 -``` -List of Figures - ``` liii ``` Table 3.1 Overview of regions and sub-regions used in the analysis ........ 31 -Table 3.2 Input parameters for the dispatch model .................................... 48 - -Table 3.3 Output parameters for the dispatch model ................................. 49 - +Table 3.2 Input parameters for the dispatch model.................................... 48 +Table 3.3 Output parameters for the dispatch model................................. 49 Table 3.4 Technology groups for dispatch order selection ........................ 51 - -Table 3.5 Technology options—variable renewable energy ...................... 51 - -Table 3.6 Technology options—dispatch generation ................................. 51 - +Table 3.5 Technology options—variable renewable energy...................... 51 +Table 3.6 Technology options—dispatch generation................................. 51 Table 3.7 Technology options—storage technologies ............................... 52 - Table 3.8 Key assumptions ........................................................................ 59 - Table 3.9 Regional definitions according to the Integrated - -``` -Assessment Modelling community ............................................ 61 -``` +Assessment Modelling community............................................ 61 Table 3.10 Narrative for each sequestration pathway - -``` per climatic biome ..................................................................... 68 -``` Table 3.11 Assumptions regarding the four land-use sequestration +pathways for two climate domain categories............................. 71 -``` -pathways for two climate domain categories ............................. 71 -``` -Table 5.1 World regions used in the scenarios ........................................... 96 - +Table 5.1 World regions used in the scenarios........................................... 96 Table 5.2 Population growth projections (in millions)............................... 102 - Table 5.3 GDP development projections based on average annual - -``` growth rates for 2015–2040 from IEA (WEO 2016a, b) -and on our own extrapolations ................................................... 103 -``` +and on our own extrapolations................................................... 103 Table 5.4 Investment cost assumptions for power generation - -``` -plants (in $2015/kW) in the scenarios until 2050 ...................... 107 -``` +plants (in $2015/kW) in the scenarios until 2050...................... 107 Table 5.5 Specific investment cost assumptions (in $2015) - -``` for heating technologies in the scenarios until 2050 ................. 108 -``` Table 5.6 Development projections for fossil fuel prices - -``` -in $2015 (IEA 2017) .................................................................. 110 -``` +in $2015 (IEA 2017).................................................................. 110 Table 5.7 Biomass price projections for 2030 at 108 EJ - -``` -of the biomass demand (IRENA 2014) ...................................... 112 -``` -Table 5.8 CO 2 cost assumptions in the scenarios ....................................... 113 +of the biomass demand (IRENA 2014)...................................... 112 +Table 5.8 CO[^2]: cost assumptions in the scenarios.......................................[^113] #### List of Tables - liv Table 5.9 Assumed average development of specific (per $GDP) ``` electricity use for electrical appliances -in the ‘Industry’ sector ............................................................... 115 +in the ‘Industry’ sector............................................................... 115 ``` Table 5.10 Assumed average development in final energy use -``` for heating in the industry sector (including power-to-heat) -(per $GDP) ................................................................................. 116 -``` +(per $GDP)................................................................................. 116 Table 5.11 Assumed average developments of per capita electricity - -``` use in the ‘Residential and other’ sector for electrical -appliances (without power-to-heat) ........................................... 117 -``` +appliances (without power-to-heat)........................................... 117 Table 5.12 Assumed average development of specific final energy - -``` use for heating in the ‘Residential and other’ sector -(including power-to-heat) .......................................................... 118 -``` +(including power-to-heat).......................................................... 118 Table 5.13 Development of power from co-generation - -``` -per $GDP ................................................................................... 126 -``` +per $GDP................................................................................... 126 Table 5.14 Development of heat from co-generation per $GDP ................. 126 Table 6.1 Pkm “per km” shift from domestic aviation - -``` -to trains (in %) ........................................................................... 151 -``` +to trains (in %)........................................................................... 151 Table 6.2 Global tkm shifts from truck to train in the 2.0 °C +and 1.5 °C Scenarios (in %)....................................................... 155 -``` -and 1.5 °C Scenarios (in %) ....................................................... 155 -``` Table 7.1 Theoretical and technical renewable energy potentials - -``` -versus utilization in 2015 ........................................................... 163 -``` -Table 7.2 [R]E-SPACE: key results part 1 ................................................. 169 - -Table 7.3 [R]E-SPACE: key results part 2 ................................................. 171 +versus utilization in 2015........................................................... 163 +Table 7.2 [R]E-SPACE: key results part 1................................................. 169 +Table 7.3 [R]E-SPACE: key results part 2................................................. 171 Table 8.1 Global: development of renewable electricity-generation - -``` -capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 180 -``` +capacity in the scenarios............................................................ 180 Table 8.2 Global: development of renewable heat supply - -``` in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 184 -``` Table 8.3 Global: installed capacities for renewable heat generation - -``` in the scenarios .......................................................................... 185 -``` Table 8.4 Global: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 187 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 187 Table 8.5 Global: projection of bunker fuel demands for aviation - -``` -and navigation by fuel in the scenarios ...................................... 191 -``` +and navigation by fuel in the scenarios...................................... 191 Table 8.6 Economic potential within a space-constrained scenario - -``` -and utilization rates for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios ........... 194 -``` +and utilization rates for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios........... 194 Table 8.7 World: average annual change in the installed power - -``` -plant capacity ............................................................................. 196 -``` -Table 8.8 Global: power system shares by technology group .................... 197 - +plant capacity............................................................................. 196 +Table 8.8 Global: power system shares by technology group.................... 197 Table 8.9 Global: capacity factors for _variable_ and _dispatchable_ - -``` -power generation ........................................................................ 198 -``` -Table 8.10 Global: load, generation, and residual load development .......... 200 - -Table 8.11 Global: storage and dispatch ...................................................... 205 - -Table 8.12 Required increases in storage capacities until 2050 ................... 208 +power generation........................................................................ 198 +Table 8.10 Global: load, generation, and residual load development.......... 200 +Table 8.11 Global: storage and dispatch...................................................... 205 +Table 8.12 Required increases in storage capacities until 2050................... 208 ``` List of Tables ``` - ``` lv ``` Table 8.13 Estimated average global investment costs for batty ``` -and hydro pump storage ............................................................. 209 +and hydro pump storage............................................................. 209 ``` Table 8.14 OECD North America: development of renewable -``` -electricity generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 211 -``` +electricity generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 211 Table 8.15 OECD North America: development of renewable heat - -``` supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ....................................................................... 215 -``` Table 8.16 OECD North America: installed capacities - -``` -for renewable heat generation in the scenarios .......................... 216 -``` +for renewable heat generation in the scenarios.......................... 216 Table 8.17 OECD North America: projection of the transport - -``` -energy demand by mode in the scenarios .................................. 217 -``` +energy demand by mode in the scenarios.................................. 217 Table 8.18 OECD North America: average annual change - -``` in installed power plant capacity ............................................... 222 -``` Table 8.19 OECD North America and sub-regions: power system - -``` -shares by technology group ....................................................... 223 -``` +shares by technology group....................................................... 223 Table 8.20 OECD North America: capacity factors - -``` -by generation type ...................................................................... 225 -``` +by generation type...................................................................... 225 Table 8.21 OECD North America: load, generation, and residual - -``` -load development ....................................................................... 226 -``` +load development....................................................................... 226 Table 8.22 OECD North America: storage and dispatch - -``` -service requirements .................................................................. 228 -``` +service requirements.................................................................. 228 Table 8.23 Latin America: development of renewable - -``` -electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 232 -``` +electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 232 Table 8.24 Latin America: development of renewable heat - -``` supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ....................................................................... 236 -``` Table 8.25 Latin America: installed capacities for renewable - -``` -heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 238 -``` +heat generation in the scenarios................................................. 238 Table 8.26 Latin America: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 239 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 239 Table 8.27 Latin America: average annual change in installed - -``` -power plant capacity .................................................................. 242 -``` +power plant capacity.................................................................. 242 Table 8.28 Latin America: power system shares by technology group........ 243 - -Table 8.29 Latin America: capacity factors by generation type ................... 245 - +Table 8.29 Latin America: capacity factors by generation type................... 245 Table 8.30 Latin America: load, generation, and residual - -``` -load development ....................................................................... 246 -``` +load development....................................................................... 246 Table 8.31 Latin America: storage and dispatch service - -``` -requirements in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios ....................... 249 -``` +requirements in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios....................... 249 Table 8.32 OECD Europe: development of renewable - -``` -electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 252 -``` +electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 252 Table 8.33 OECD Europe: development of renewable heat - -``` supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ....................................................................... 256 -``` Table 8.34 OECD Europe: installed capacities for renewable heat +generation in the scenarios......................................................... 258 -``` -generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 258 -``` List of Tables - lvi Table 8.35 OECD Europe: projection of the transport energy ``` -demand by mode in the scenarios .............................................. 259 +demand by mode in the scenarios.............................................. 259 ``` Table 8.36 OECD Europe: average annual change in installed -``` -power plant capacity .................................................................. 262 -``` -Table 8.37 OECD Europe: power system shares by technology group ....... 263 - -Table 8.38 OECD Europe: capacity factors by generation type .................. 265 - +power plant capacity.................................................................. 262 +Table 8.37 OECD Europe: power system shares by technology group....... 263 +Table 8.38 OECD Europe: capacity factors by generation type.................. 265 Table 8.39 OECD Europe: load, generation, and residual - -``` -load development ....................................................................... 266 -``` -Table 8.40 OECD Europe: storage and dispatch service requirements ....... 267 - +load development....................................................................... 266 +Table 8.40 OECD Europe: storage and dispatch service requirements....... 267 Table 8.41 Africa: development of renewable electricity-generation - -``` -capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 271 -``` +capacity in the scenarios............................................................ 271 Table 8.42 Africa: development of renewable heat supply - -``` in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 275 -``` Table 8.43 Africa: installed capacities for renewable heat - -``` -generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 276 -``` +generation in the scenarios......................................................... 276 Table 8.44 Africa: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 277 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 277 Table 8.45 Africa: average annual change in installed power - -``` -plant capacity ............................................................................. 281 -``` -Table 8.46 Africa: power system shares by technology group .................... 282 - +plant capacity............................................................................. 281 +Table 8.46 Africa: power system shares by technology group.................... 282 Table 8.47 Africa: capacity factors by generation type ............................... 283 - -Table 8.48 Africa: load, generation, and residual load development ........... 284 - -Table 8.49 Africa: storage and dispatch service requirements ..................... 285 - +Table 8.48 Africa: load, generation, and residual load development........... 284 +Table 8.49 Africa: storage and dispatch service requirements..................... 285 Table 8.50 Middle East: development of renewable - -``` -electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 289 -``` +electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 289 Table 8.51 Middle East: development of renewable heat supply - -``` in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 293 -``` Table 8.52 Middle East: installed capacities for renewable heat - -``` -generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 294 -``` +generation in the scenarios......................................................... 294 Table 8.53 Middle East: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 295 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 295 Table 8.54 Middle East: average annual change in installed - -``` -power plant capacity .................................................................. 299 -``` -Table 8.55 Middle East: power system shares by technology group ........... 300 - -Table 8.56 Middle East: capacity factors by generation type ...................... 302 - +power plant capacity.................................................................. 299 +Table 8.55 Middle East: power system shares by technology group........... 300 +Table 8.56 Middle East: capacity factors by generation type...................... 302 Table 8.57 Middle East: load, generation, and residual - -``` -load development ....................................................................... 303 -``` -Table 8.58 Middle East: storage and dispatch service requirements ........... 304 - +load development....................................................................... 303 +Table 8.58 Middle East: storage and dispatch service requirements........... 304 Table 8.59 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of renewable - -``` -electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 308 -``` +electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 308 Table 8.60 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of renewable - -``` heat supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ....................................................................... 312 -``` Table 8.61 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: installed capacities for renewable +heat generation in the scenarios................................................. 313 -``` -heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 313 -``` ``` List of Tables ``` - ``` lvii ``` Table 8.62 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: projection of transport energy ``` -demand by mode in the scenarios .............................................. 315 +demand by mode in the scenarios.............................................. 315 ``` Table 8.63 Eurasia: average annual change in installed power -``` -plant capacity ............................................................................. 318 -``` +plant capacity............................................................................. 318 Table 8.64 Eurasia: power system shares by technology group................... 319 - -Table 8.65 Eurasia: capacity factors by generation type .............................. 321 - -Table 8.66 Eurasia: load, generation, and residual load development ......... 322 - -Table 8.67 Eurasia: storage and dispatch service requirements ................... 323 - +Table 8.65 Eurasia: capacity factors by generation type.............................. 321 +Table 8.66 Eurasia: load, generation, and residual load development......... 322 +Table 8.67 Eurasia: storage and dispatch service requirements................... 323 Table 8.68 Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable - -``` -electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 327 -``` +electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 327 Table 8.69 Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable heat - -``` supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ....................................................................... 331 -``` Table 8.70 Non-OECD Asia: installed capacities for renewable - -``` -heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 332 -``` +heat generation in the scenarios................................................. 332 Table 8.71 Non-OECD Asia: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 333 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 333 Table 8.72 Non-OECD Asia: average annual change in installed - -``` -power plant capacity .................................................................. 337 -``` +power plant capacity.................................................................. 337 Table 8.73 Non-OECD Asia: power system shares - -``` -by technology group .................................................................. 338 -``` +by technology group.................................................................. 338 Table 8.74 Non-OECD Asia: capacity factors - -``` -by generation type ...................................................................... 340 -``` +by generation type...................................................................... 340 Table 8.75 Non-OECD Asia: load, generation, and residual - -``` -load development—2.0 °C Scenario .......................................... 341 -``` +load development—2.0 °C Scenario.......................................... 341 Table 8.76 Non-OECD Asia: storage and dispatch - -``` -service requirements .................................................................. 343 -``` +service requirements.................................................................. 343 Table 8.77 India: development of renewable electricity-generation - -``` -capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 347 -``` +capacity in the scenarios............................................................ 347 Table 8.78 India: development of renewable heat supply - -``` in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 350 -``` Table 8.79 India: installed capacities for renewable heat - -``` -generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 351 -``` +generation in the scenarios......................................................... 351 Table 8.80 India: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 353 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 353 Table 8.81 India: average annual change in installed power - -``` -plant capacity ............................................................................. 356 -``` -Table 8.82 India: power system shares by technology group ...................... 358 - +plant capacity............................................................................. 356 +Table 8.82 India: power system shares by technology group...................... 358 Table 8.83 India: capacity factors by generation type ................................. 358 - -Table 8.84 India: load, generation, and residual load development ............. 359 - +Table 8.84 India: load, generation, and residual load development............. 359 Table 8.85 India: storage and dispatch service requirements....................... 360 - Table 8.86 China: development of renewable electricity-generation - -``` -capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 363 -``` +capacity in the scenarios............................................................ 363 Table 8.87 China: development of renewable heat supply - -``` in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 367 -``` -List of Tables +List of Tables lviii Table 8.88 China: installed capacities for renewable heat ``` -generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 368 +generation in the scenarios......................................................... 368 ``` Table 8.89 China: projection of transport energy demand -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 370 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 370 Table 8.90 China: average annual change in installed power - -``` -plant capacity ............................................................................. 373 -``` -Table 8.91 China: power system shares by technology group ..................... 374 - -Table 8.92 China: capacity factors by generation type ................................ 376 - +plant capacity............................................................................. 373 +Table 8.91 China: power system shares by technology group..................... 374 +Table 8.92 China: capacity factors by generation type................................ 376 Table 8.93 China: load, generation, and residual load development ........... 377 - -Table 8.94 China: storage and dispatch service requirements ..................... 379 - +Table 8.94 China: storage and dispatch service requirements..................... 379 Table 8.95 OECD Pacific: development of renewable - -``` -electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 383 -``` +electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios......................... 383 Table 8.96 OECD Pacific: development of renewable heat - -``` supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use -of electricity) .............................................................................. 387 -``` +of electricity).............................................................................. 387 Table 8.97 OECD Pacific: installed capacities for renewable - -``` -heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 387 -``` +heat generation in the scenarios................................................. 387 Table 8.98 OECD Pacific: projection of transport energy demand - -``` -by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 389 -``` +by mode in the scenarios............................................................ 389 Table 8.99 OECD Pacific: average annual change in installed - -``` -power plant capacity .................................................................. 393 -``` -Table 8.100 OECD Pacific: power system shares by technology group ........ 394 - -Table 8.101 OECD Pacific: capacity factors by generation type ................... 396 - +power plant capacity.................................................................. 393 +Table 8.100 OECD Pacific: power system shares by technology group........ 394 +Table 8.101 OECD Pacific: capacity factors by generation type................... 396 Table 8.102 OECD Pacific: load, generation, and residual load +development............................................................................... 397 +Table 8.103 OECD Pacific: storage and dispatch service requirements........ 398 -``` -development ............................................................................... 397 -``` -Table 8.103 OECD Pacific: storage and dispatch service requirements ........ 398 - -Table 9.1 Fossil reserves, resources, and additional occurrences .............. 404 - +Table 9.1 Fossil reserves, resources, and additional occurrences.............. 404 Table 9.2 Summary—coal, oil, and gas trajectories for a just +transition under the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios......... 410 -``` -transition under the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios ......... 410 -``` Table 10.1 Summary of employment factors used in a global - -``` -analysis in 2012 ......................................................................... 415 -``` +analysis in 2012......................................................................... 415 Table 10.2 Employment factors used for coal fuel supply - -``` (mining and associated jobs) ..................................................... 415 -``` Table 10.3 Regional multipliers used for the quantitative calculation - -``` -of employment ........................................................................... 416 -``` -Table 10.4 Wind and solar PV manufacturing–study methodology ............ 421 - -Table 10.5 Occupational hierarchy, solar PV construction .......................... 422 - +of employment........................................................................... 416 +Table 10.4 Wind and solar PV manufacturing–study methodology............ 421 +Table 10.5 Occupational hierarchy, solar PV construction.......................... 422 Table 10.6 Occupational compositions for renewable and fossil - -``` -fuel technologies ........................................................................ 425 -``` +fuel technologies........................................................................ 425 Table 10.7 Jobs created and lost between 2015 and 2025 under - -``` -the 1.5 °C Scenario .................................................................... 429 -``` +the 1.5 °C Scenario.................................................................... 429 Table 10.8 Jobs created or lost between 2015 and 2025 by region +under the 1.5 °C Scenario.......................................................... 430 -``` -under the 1.5 °C Scenario .......................................................... 430 -``` ``` List of Tables ``` - ``` lix ``` Table 10.9 Jobs created and lost between 2015 and 2025 under ``` -the 2.0 °C Scenario .................................................................... 431 +the 2.0 °C Scenario.................................................................... 431 ``` Table 10.10 Jobs created or lost between 2015 and 2025 by region ``` -under the 2.0 °C Scenario .......................................................... 432 +under the 2.0 °C Scenario.......................................................... 432 ``` -Table 11.1 Summary of metal scenarios ...................................................... 443 - -Table 11.2 Material intensity and recycling rates ........................................ 444 - -Table 11.3 Market share ............................................................................... 444 - -Table 11.4 Metal assumptions ...................................................................... 445 - -Table 11.5 Comparison of results with other studies ................................... 452 +Table 11.1 Summary of metal scenarios...................................................... 443 +Table 11.2 Material intensity and recycling rates........................................ 444 +Table 11.3 Market share............................................................................... 444 +Table 11.4 Metal assumptions...................................................................... 445 +Table 11.5 Comparison of results with other studies................................... 452 List of Tables - © The Author(s) 2019 1 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_1 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 1 +**Chapter 1** #### Introduction @@ -4818,13 +3011,12 @@ preferences in future energy pathways. Discussion of the advantages and limitati of scenarios in the energy and climate debate. -``` -UNFCCC Paris Agreement, Article 2: -``` -1. _This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention,_ - _including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat_ - _of climate change,in the context of sustainable development and efforts to_ - _eradicate poverty, including by:_ +**UNFCCC Paris Agreement, Article 2:** + +1. This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, +including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat +of climate change,in the context of sustainable development and efforts to +eradicate poverty, including by: ``` (a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below @@ -4835,9 +3027,8 @@ this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emission development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; and ``` -``` (continued) -``` + S. Teske (*) Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au @@ -4847,7 +3038,6 @@ Department of Energy Systems Analysis, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute Engineering Thermodynamics (TT), Pfaffenwaldring, Germany e-mail: thomas.pregger@dlr.de - 2 The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2.0 °C and @@ -4856,100 +3046,68 @@ to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 °C. To accomplish this, countries Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 -climate actions (Rogelj et al. 2016 ). The aim of this research is to develop practical +climate actions (Rogelj et al. [^2016]:). The aim of this research is to develop practical pathways to achieve the Paris climate goals in an economically feasible and sustain- able matter. -``` The study described in this book focuses on changing the ways in which humans -``` -produce energy, because energy-related CO 2 emissions are the main driver of cli- +produce energy, because energy-related CO[^2]: emissions are the main driver of cli- mate change. The analysis also considers the developmental pathways of non- -energy- related emissions and mitigation measures because it is essential to address - +energy-related emissions and mitigation measures because it is essential to address their contributions if we are to achieve the Paris climate change targets. The analysis - considers options or ‘scenarios’ for the transition to net zero emissions across all - sectors that allow unnecessary techno-economic, societal, and environmental risks - to be avoided. - -``` Scenario studies are an important way of linking expected or assumed anthropo- -``` genic activities and their resulting emissions with environmental effects, such as - global warming. They also provide important insights into these techno-economic, - societal, and political options and their various effects. Therefore, they are widely - used to analyse possible carbon emission pathways, to guide decision-makers, and - to motivate or justify interventions and developments. However, comprehensive, - transparent, and robust results and conclusions are required as the bases for such - decision-making. Ideally, this information will come from scenario studies that - investigate a broad range of possible conditions and available options. Such studies - must adopt a holistic approach and integrate comprehensive state-of-the-art back- - ground knowledge, including about the impacts of sectoral and technological - changes, the influence of market developments, and the effects of certain pathways. - -``` Existing global scenario studies do not provide a comprehensive view of the pos- -``` sible development pathways and technological options required to achieve these - ambitious climate targets. Each study usually provides a few selected pathways, - representing a narrow range of possible energy futures. One reason for this is that - most scenario models are based on objective cost-optimizing functions, which over- - emphasize the cost efficiency based on uncertain cost assumptions. Another reason - is that disruptive developments are not usually considered in scenario narratives. - The history of scenario-based systems analysis is littered with many examples of - misleading and fallacious ‘optimized’ scenario pathways and derived policy recom- - -mendations (see e.g., Mai et al. 2013 ; Mohn 2016 ). +mendations (see e.g., Mai et al. [^2013]:; Mohn [^2016]:). ``` (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low green- house gas emissions and climate-resilient development. ``` -2. _This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of_ - _common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in_ - _the light of different national circumstances._ +2. This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of +common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in +the light of different national circumstances. ``` S. Teske and T. Pregger ``` - ``` 3 ``` -``` Furthermore, in most existing 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C scenarios, achievement of the -``` + climate targets is based on technologies that have significant, and to some extent unknown, disadvantages. These technologies include nuclear power generation, car- -bon capture and sequestration, and geoengineering (see e.g., Rogelj et  al. 2018 ; +bon capture and sequestration, and geoengineering (see e.g., Rogelj et  al. [^2018]:; -Kriegler et al. 2015 ). Such scenarios involve considerable risk. Moreover, the reader +Kriegler et al. [^2015]:). Such scenarios involve considerable risk. Moreover, the reader is usually given only limited access to the model assumptions and results, and @@ -4957,9 +3115,8 @@ therefore has limited information about the transparency and traceability of the tors that influence these model-based analyses and the conclusions drawn from them. -``` The primary objective of this report is to provide a holistic picture of what will -``` + be involved in the transition to 100% renewable energy. This report examines power, heat, and fuel supplies on a global scale. Its main focus is on the role of efficiency @@ -4981,7 +3138,7 @@ tural implications of the two pathways in comparison with a 5.0 °C ‘referenc nario based on the International Energy Agency (IEA)‘s Current Policies scenario -published in the _Word Energy Outlook 2017_ (IEA-WEO 2017 ). We do not claim that +published in the _Word Energy Outlook 2017_ (IEA-WEO [^2017]:). We do not claim that our scenarios are optimal with regard to the economy or society. We want to provide @@ -4997,9 +3154,8 @@ technologies such as nuclear power, unsustainable biomass use, CCS, and geoengineering. -``` Another important objective is to combine bottom-up energy scenarios with non- -``` + energy greenhouse gas (GHG)-mitigation scenarios to construct a complete picture of possible climate mitigation pathways and the contributions of the illustrated strat- @@ -5027,23 +3183,20 @@ governance will also be required for the fast and deep decarbonisation of the wo energy systems, especially in relation to carbon pricing and efficiency standards. -``` However, all perspectives need a common understanding of what is required to -``` + meet the ambitious Paris climate targets. We believe that the results of this study will contribute to such a common understanding and will demonstrate how urgent is the need to act. -1 Introduction - +[^1]: Introduction 4 -``` The 2.0  °C Scenario represents a far more likely pathway than the 1.5  °C -``` + Scenario. Whereas the 2.0 °C Scenario takes into account unavoidable delays due to political, economic, and societal processes and stakeholders, the 1.5  °C Scenario @@ -5082,7 +3235,7 @@ breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for cli Technological Forecasting & Social Change 90 (2015) 24–44 **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -5095,12 +3248,10 @@ the copyright holder. ``` S. Teske and T. Pregger ``` - © The Author(s) 2019 5 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_2 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 2 +**Chapter 2** #### State of Research @@ -5116,9 +3267,8 @@ outcomes if we continue with business as usual and fail to drastically reduce GH emissions. -``` The second part reviews the development of the global energy markets during the -``` + past decade. Trends in the power-, transport- and heating sector in regard to technolo- gies and investments are provided for the year of writing (2018). The developments @@ -5133,13 +3283,13 @@ changed in recent decades and the likely outcomes if we continue with ‘busines usual’ and fail to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. -**_2.1.1 Basics of Climate Change and Radiative Forcing_** +**2.1.1 Basics of Climate Change and Radiative Forcing** The Earth’s current climate is the result of a delicate balance between incoming short- wave solar radiation and outgoing long-wave radiation that moves back to space. -Roughly half (165 W/m^2 ) the incoming short-wave radiation (340 W/m^2 ) reaches the +Roughly half (165 W/m[^2]) the incoming short-wave radiation (340 W/m[^2]) reaches the S. Teske (*) Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia @@ -5150,244 +3300,141 @@ Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au; kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au - 6 surface of the Earth. The rest is reflected back to space by clouds, aerosol particles, or - -scattering gases, such as N 2 and O 2 (100  W/m^2 ) or is absorbed by the troposphere - -(75 W/m^2 ) (Stephens et al. 2012 ). With the exception of clouds and aerosols, this win- - +scattering gases, such as N[^2]: and O[^2]: (100  W/m[^2]) or is absorbed by the troposphere +(75 W/m[^2]) (Stephens et al. [^2012]:). With the exception of clouds and aerosols, this win- dow to incoming solar radiation onto Earth’s surface is relatively transparent, so that - most of the Sun’s energy that comes towards Earth is absorbed either in the atmosphere - or on the Earth’s surface. This window is our basic heating engine, and the incoming - radiation that is our energy source is somewhat dimmed by aerosol emissions and by - changes in the amount of sunlight reflected back to space by changes in land use. - However, these are not humanity’s greatest influences on the Earth’s climate. - -``` There is a second window for radiation, through which outgoing long-wave radi- -``` ation passes, and we are much more effectively closing this window than the one for - incoming solar radiation. We can imagine that this second atmospheric window - already has a thick curtain across it, largely formed by water vapour. That curtain - prevents surface long-wave radiation from going directly to space. In other words, - that curtain acts like a thick blanket. The long-wave radiation that the Earth loses - back into space originates not from its surface but from much higher atmospheric - layers, which tend to be colder. Without absorbers of long-wave radiation in the - atmosphere, the Earth’s surface would be much colder and inhospitable to humans. - -``` To the parts of the outgoing radiation window that are not yet covered by water -``` vapour, humanity is now adding more layers of absorbers of other long-wave radia- - tion in the form of GHGs. By adding an assortment of GHGs, we are thickening the - existing curtain and closing the curtain further across the long-wave radiation win- - -dow. Compared with the overall incoming solar radiation at 340 W/m^2 , the ‘curtain’ +dow. Compared with the overall incoming solar radiation at 340 W/m[^2], the ‘curtain’ generated by human-induced increases in the concentrations of long-lived green- -house gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , halocarbons, N 2 O and fluorinated gases) appears to be of - -little importance, as it “only” amounts to 2.83 W/m^2. The addition and subtraction +house gases (CO[^2]:, CH[^4]:, halocarbons, N[^2]:O and fluorinated gases) appears to be of +little importance, as it “only” amounts to 2.83 W/m[^2]. The addition and subtraction of many other smaller human influences results in a slightly reduced net current - -(year 2011) forcing of 2.29 W/m^2. +(year 2011) forcing of 2.29 W/m[^2]. **2.1.1.1 Anthropogenic Contribution** Beyond reasonable doubt, climate change over the last 250 years has been driven by - anthropogenic activities. In fact, the human-induced release of GHGs into the atmo- - sphere has the potential to cause more than 100% of the currently observed climate - change. The reason that climate change is not even greater than it is that some - human-induced changes mask some of the warming attributable to elevated GHG - concentrations. This masking effect arises from the emission of cooling aerosols - and changes in land use that increase the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. **2.1.1.2 Carbon Budget and Future Warming** Although the anthropogenic contribution to climate change occurs via a large set of - GHG emissions (the current emission scenarios that feed into CMIP6 include 43 - GHG emission species), and multiple aerosols and land-use changes, there is one - -dominant influence: carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. +dominant influence: carbon dioxide (CO[^2]:) emissions. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 7 ``` -``` -It is not only the magnitude of the anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 that makes it -``` +It is not only the magnitude of the anthropogenic emissions of CO[^2]: that makes it such a significant driver of human-induced climate change. There is also an inherent - -difference between CO 2 and almost all other GHGs and aerosols. Over the time - -scales of interest here, CO 2 does not have a finite lifetime in the atmosphere. All - +difference between CO[^2]: and almost all other GHGs and aerosols. Over the time +scales of interest here, CO[^2]: does not have a finite lifetime in the atmosphere. All other gases react chemically, become photo-dissociated in the stratosphere, or are, - -for example, consumed by the bacteria in soils. However, once CO 2 is released from - +for example, consumed by the bacteria in soils. However, once CO[^2]: is released from the near-permanent carbon pools of fossil fuel reservoirs, it only travels between a set of ‘active’ carbon pools. These active pools are the land biosphere, the ocean, -and the atmosphere. Therefore, if CO 2 is added to one, the level in all three pools - +and the atmosphere. Therefore, if CO[^2]: is added to one, the level in all three pools will rise and over time, a new, higher equilibrium concentration is reached. For -example, whereas CO 2 is consumed by plants during the photosynthesis process and - -then built into plant tissue as carbon, this same carbon is released again as CO 2 - +example, whereas CO[^2]: is consumed by plants during the photosynthesis process and +then built into plant tissue as carbon, this same carbon is released again as CO2 when forests burn, when organic matter in the soil decomposes, and when humans - -and other animals oxidize the food they eat. Therefore, a kilogram of CO 2 emissions - -will increase the atmospheric CO 2 concentration for hundreds or even thousands of - -years. Initially, the average CO 2 concentration will shoot up by that kilogram, and - +and other animals oxidize the food they eat. Therefore, a kilogram of CO[^2]: emissions +will increase the atmospheric CO[^2]: concentration for hundreds or even thousands of +years. Initially, the average CO[^2]: concentration will shoot up by that kilogram, and then drop relatively quickly again before a new equilibrium is slowly re-established - by the redistribution of carbon into the land biosphere and the ocean. - -``` -The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report highlighted this key difference between CO 2 -``` -and other GHGs. The airborne fraction of CO 2 emissions diminishes over time, as - -for other GHGs. However, the airborne CO 2 fraction does not decline to zero over - +The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report highlighted this key difference between CO2 +and other GHGs. The airborne fraction of CO[^2]: emissions diminishes over time, as +for other GHGs. However, the airborne CO[^2]: fraction does not decline to zero over 100 years, 1000 years, or even longer periods. Furthermore, carbon-cycle feedback - -mechanisms mean that higher CO 2 concentrations cause more carbon to remain in - -the atmosphere. Acting in the other direction, any extra amount of CO 2 in the atmo- - -sphere will have less and less effect on radiative forcing, i.e., how much each CO 2 - +mechanisms mean that higher CO[^2]: concentrations cause more carbon to remain in +the atmosphere. Acting in the other direction, any extra amount of CO[^2]: in the atmo- +sphere will have less and less effect on radiative forcing, i.e., how much each CO2 molecule contributes to the warming of the planet. These factors act in concert with - another feature of the climate system: the Earth’s inertia to warming. When the - thermostat of your kitchen oven is set to 220 °C, the oven will take a while to heat - to that level. The situation is much the same with the Earth’s climate. The IPCC - Fifth Assessment Report notes that three effects (the carbon cycle and its feedbacks, - the saturation effect of forcing, and the delayed response of the atmosphere to - warming) combine to create what is almost a stepwise function in the warming - -caused by CO 2 emissions. In other words, every extra kilogram of CO 2 produces a - +caused by CO[^2]: emissions. In other words, every extra kilogram of CO[^2]: produces a slightly greater increase in temperature than the preceding kilogram, and the warm- - ing effect is much the same 10 years after the emission of that kilogram as it is after - -100 or 500 years. Over time, less of the CO 2 will remain in the atmosphere, but the - +100 or 500 years. Over time, less of the CO[^2]: will remain in the atmosphere, but the Earth’s inertia will still cause the temperature to reflect the extra warmth arising - from the initial emission. - -``` This feature of the Earth’s warming and the carbon cycle can be exploited to -``` derive a very simple linear relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and - warming. In fact, the resultant warming is a simple function of the sum of all the - -CO 2 that has ever been emitted, largely independent of when a certain amount of - -CO 2 was emitted in the past. Based on this understanding, we can compute the car- - +CO[^2]: that has ever been emitted, largely independent of when a certain amount of +CO[^2]: was emitted in the past. Based on this understanding, we can compute the car- bon budgets for specific levels of warming. As a complication, of course, an - unknown amount of warming arises in response to other GHG emissions and aero- -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 8 sols. When deriving carbon budgets, this extra level of warming is normally derived - from a range of future emission scenarios. Therefore, the ultimate level of warming - -is the sum of the linear CO 2 -induced warming level (often described as the ‘tran- - +is the sum of the linear CO[^2]:-induced warming level (often described as the ‘tran- sient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon’) and a smaller and some- - what uncertain contribution that depends on the other GHGs and aerosols. -**_2.1.2 Carbon Budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming_** +**2.1.2 Carbon Budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming** The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report used the results of earth system models to derive - its carbon budgets. Earth system models are the most complex computer models we - have of how the Earth, its atmosphere, oceans, and vegetation are interacting with - each other. The IPCC investigated the amounts of cumulative carbon emissions (in - a multi-gas world) that would be consistent with, for example, temperatures main- - tained below either 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C higher than to pre-industrial levels. The recently - published IPCC Special Report on the 1.5  °C degree target cites different carbon - budget numbers, depending on whether a low estimate of historical temperatures is - assumed or surface air temperatures are consistently applied. Therefore, there is - some complexity and uncertainty around the carbon budget, which is related to the - fact that different interpretations can be made about how far we are still away from - the 1.5 °C target (for example). If we assume that we are still 0.63 °C away from - 1.5 °C warming (a very optimistic estimate, which is unfortunately based on a too - optimistic account of historical emissions), from January 2018 onwards, we can still - -emit 1320 GtCO 2 before reaching 2.0  °C warming (66% chance) and 770 GtCO 2 - +emit 1320 GtCO[^2]: before reaching 2.0  °C warming (66% chance) and 770 GtCO2 before reaching 1.5 °C warming (50% chance). These figures must be reduced by a - -further 100 GtCO 2 to account for the additional Earth system feedback that has - +further 100 GtCO[^2]: to account for the additional Earth system feedback that has occurred over the twenty-first century. However, when a more realistic measure of historical temperature evolution is used (i.e., calculated by consistently using prox- @@ -5415,7 +3462,7 @@ ferences from earlier IPCC estimates of the carbon budget) is the focus of a cur intense scientific debate, which is unlikely to be settled in the next few months (see -e.g., Schurer et al. 2017 , 2018; Hawkins et al. 2017 ). As already mentioned, one of +e.g., Schurer et al. [^2017]:, [^2018]:; Hawkins et al. [^2017]:). As already mentioned, one of the key factors in deriving a carbon budget is the estimated current level of warm- @@ -5428,7 +3475,6 @@ why the recently derived carbon budgets are more relaxed than expected. When the ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 9 ``` @@ -5440,36 +3486,21 @@ ral variability is superimposed on the long-term warming trend. Other points for discussion in the determination of carbon budgets include the pre-industrial warm- -ing level and the already-mentioned amount of warming induced by non-CO 2 gases. - -``` +ing level and the already-mentioned amount of warming induced by non-CO[^2]: gases. This study does not aim to resolve the differences in opinions about carbon bud- -``` + gets, but it does provide emissions pathways that can be considered to be consistent - with both a target level of 1.5 °C warming in the case of the 1.5 °C scenario, and - with a “well-below 2.0 °C” target level in the case of the 2.0 °C scenario. - -``` Whatever the precise carbon budget, recent effects of climate change provide -``` another set of stark reminders that it is more urgent than ever to replace fossil fuels. - If we wait for the wild-fire seasons that will occur at global warming levels of - 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C, with intensified droughts or ever-more intense hurricane, it might - be much too late to avoid their widespread catastrophic impacts. Even at 1.5  °C - warming, there is a risk that the continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet will - cause sea levels to rise by meters over the coming centuries. Fossil fuels have - undoubtedly allowed great growth in prosperity across the globe, but their replace- - ment with the cleaner, cheaper and emission-free technologies that are available - today is overdue. **2.2 Development of Energy Markets—Past and Present** @@ -5488,7 +3519,7 @@ global context. The research and data in Sect. 2.2.1 are based on the REN21 Renewables 2018—Global Status Report Renewables. -**_2.2.1 Global Trends in Renewable Energy in 2018_** +**2.2.1 Global Trends in Renewable Energy in 2018** In 2017, ongoing trends continued: solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power domi- @@ -5498,7 +3529,7 @@ nologies continued to decline, and fossil fuel prices remained low. A new benchm was reached, in that the new renewable capacity began to compete favourably with -existing fossil fuel power plants in some markets (Malik 2017 ). Electrification of +existing fossil fuel power plants in some markets (Malik [^2017]:). Electrification of the transport and heating sectors is gaining attention, and although the amount of @@ -5506,31 +3537,28 @@ electrification is currently small, the use of renewable technologies is expecte increase significantly. -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 10 -``` The growth in solar PV has been remarkable, nearly double that of second- -``` + ranking wind power, and the capacity of new solar PV is greater than the combined -increases in the coal, gas, and nuclear capacities (FS-UNEP 2018 ). Storage is +increases in the coal, gas, and nuclear capacities (FS-UNEP [^2018]:). Storage is increasingly used in combination with variable renewables as battery costs decline, and solar PV plus storage has started to compete with gas peaking plants (Carroll -2018 ). However, bioenergy (including traditional biomass) remains the leading +[^2018]:). However, bioenergy (including traditional biomass) remains the leading renewable energy source in the heating (buildings and industry) and transport sectors. -``` Renewable energy’s share of the total final energy consumption has increased -``` + only modestly in recent years, despite tremendous growth in the modern renewable energy sector. There are two main reasons for this. One is that the growth in the @@ -5547,171 +3575,93 @@ renewable energy used, and its use has increased at a rate lower than the growth total energy consumption. -``` -Since 2013, the global energy-related CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels have -``` +Since 2013, the global energy-related CO[^2]: emissions from fossil fuels have remained relatively flat. Early estimates based on preliminary data suggest that this - -changed in 2017, with global CO 2 emissions growing by around 1.4% (REN21- - -GSR 2018 ). These increased emissions were primarily due to increased coal con- - +changed in 2017, with global CO[^2]: emissions growing by around 1.4% (REN21- +GSR [^2018]:). These increased emissions were primarily due to increased coal con- sumption in China, which grew by 3.7% in 2017 after a 3-year decline (ENERDATA - -2018 ). This increased Chinese consumption, as well as steady growth of around 4% - +[^2018]:). This increased Chinese consumption, as well as steady growth of around 4% in India, is expected to lead to an upturn in global coal use, reversing the annual - -global decline observed from 2013 to 2016 (ENERDATA 2018 ). - -``` +global decline observed from 2013 to 2016 (ENERDATA [^2018]:). In contrast to the upturn in global coal use, in 2017, 26 countries joined the -``` Powering Past Coal Alliance, which is committed to phasing-out coal power by - 2030, with new pledges from Angola, Denmark, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, and - -the United Kingdom (Carrington 2017 ). An increasing number of companies who - +the United Kingdom (Carrington [^2017]:). An increasing number of companies who owned, developed or operated coal power plants have moved away from the coal - -business (Shearer 2017 ). Also in 2017, 26 of 28 European Union member states - +business (Shearer [^2017]:). Also in 2017, 26 of 28 European Union member states signed an agreement to build no more coal-fired power plants from 2020 onwards, - and the Port of Amsterdam, which currently handles 16 million tonnes of coal per - -year, announced plans to become coal-free by 2030 (Campbell 2017 ). - -``` +year, announced plans to become coal-free by 2030 (Campbell [^2017]:). The global oil price averaged USD 52.5 per barrel in 2017, equivalent to about -``` half the record high prices that occurred between 2011 and 2014, although it was - -still almost double the prices from 1996 to 2005 (Statista 2018 ). Natural gas prices - +still almost double the prices from 1996 to 2005 (Statista [^2018]:). Natural gas prices fell from 2013 to 2016, and early indicators suggest that prices remained low or - -decreased further in 2017 (BP 2017 ). Low fossil fuel prices have challenged renew- - -able energy markets, especially in the heating and transport sectors (IEA-RE 2016 ). - -``` +decreased further in 2017 (BP [^2017]:). Low fossil fuel prices have challenged renew- +able energy markets, especially in the heating and transport sectors (IEA-RE [^2016]:). The value of direct global fossil fuel consumption subsidies in 2016 was esti- -``` mated to be about USD 360 billion, a 15% reduction since 2015—but still more - than 20% higher than the total renewable industry turnover in 2017 (IEA-WEB ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 11 ``` -2018 ). The value of fossil fuel subsidies also increases by an order of magnitude if - -externalities are considered (IMF 2015 ). Although the Group of Twenty (G20) reaf- - +[^2018]:). The value of fossil fuel subsidies also increases by an order of magnitude if +externalities are considered (IMF [^2015]:). Although the Group of Twenty (G20) reaf- firmed their 2009 commitment to phasing-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies in - 2017, progress has been slow and there are calls from large investors, insurers, and - -civil society to both increase transparency and accelerate the process (G20- 2017 ). - +civil society to both increase transparency and accelerate the process (G20-[^2017]:). The main problems identified include that the G20 has not defined ‘inefficient sub- - sidies’; there is no mandatory reporting; and there are no timelines for phase-out - -commitments (Asmelash 2017 ). - -``` +commitments (Asmelash [^2017]:). At the global policy level, international climate negotiations have continued to -``` influence energy markets. Following the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United - Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a technical meet- - ing on its implementation took place in Bonn, Germany, in November 2017 at the - -23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) (UNFCCC 2017 ). Although renewable - +23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) (UNFCCC [^2017]:). Although renewable energy figured prominently in a large proportion of the Nationally Determined - Contributions (NDCs) that countries submitted in the lead-up to COP22 in 2016, the - climate negotiations in 2017 were unable to resolve the question of how NDCs - should be organized, delivered, and updated, leaving uncertainty about how national - -renewable energy commitments could be ramped up (Timberley 2017 ). - -``` +renewable energy commitments could be ramped up (Timberley [^2017]:). Despite these uncertainties, an increasing number of communities, cities, and -``` regions have introduced 100% renewable energy targets. The number of cities pow- - ered by at least 70% renewable electricity has more than doubled in 2 years, from - 42 in 2015 to 101 in 2017. These cities now include Auckland, Brasilia, Nairobi, - -and Oslo (CDP-WEB 2018 ). - -``` +and Oslo (CDP-WEB [^2018]:). Carbon pricing policies, which include carbon taxes and emission trading -``` schemes, were in place in 64 jurisdictions around the world in 2017, up from 61 in - -2016_._ In December 2017 (REN21-GSR 2018 ), China launched the first phase of its - +[^2016]:_._ In December 2017 (REN21-GSR [^2018]:), China launched the first phase of its long-awaited nationwide carbon emissions trading scheme, which will focus on the - power sector. Carbon trading will be based in Shanghai and will include about 1700 +power companies emitting more than 3 billion tonnes of CO[^2]: annually (Xu and +Mason [^2017]:). For comparison, the emissions trading scheme of the European Union -power companies emitting more than 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 annually (Xu and - -Mason 2017 ). For comparison, the emissions trading scheme of the European Union - -included around 1.7 billion tonnes of CO 2 in 2016 (EC 2017 ). Reforms to the - +included around 1.7 billion tonnes of CO[^2]: in 2016 (EC[^2017]). Reforms to the European Union scheme were agreed upon at the end of 2017, which will reduce the number of emission certificates issued and accelerate the cancellation of surplus - -certificates (Agora 2018 ). - -``` +certificates (Agora [^2018]:). The global investment in renewable energy in 2017 (excluding hydropower -``` -plants larger than 50 megawatts [MW]) was USD 280 billion (REN21-GSR 2018 ), - +plants larger than 50 megawatts [MW]) was USD 280 billion (REN21-GSR [^2018]:), up by 2% from 2016, but 13% below the all-time high, which occurred in 2015. It - is noteworthy that each dollar represents more capacity on the ground as prices per - GW decrease. Nearly all the investment was in either solar PV (58%) or wind power - (38%). Developing countries accounted for the largest share of investment for the - third consecutive year, at 63% of the total investment. China alone accounted for - 45% of global investment, with a 30% increase since 2016. The United States was - next, with 14%, followed by Japan (5%) and India (4%). Investment remained - steady or trended upwards in Latin America and the USA, but has been falling in +Europe since about 2010, with a drop of 30% from 2016 to 2017 (UNEP-FS [^2018]:). -Europe since about 2010, with a drop of 30% from 2016 to 2017 (UNEP-FS 2018 ). - -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 12 -``` Pressure to diversify and stable growth in the renewables sector over the past -``` + decade has increased the interest of the fossil fuel industry in renewables. Large oil corporations more than doubled their acquisitions, project investments, and venture @@ -5722,19 +3672,18 @@ the investment in clean energy companies to USD 6.2 billion over the past 15 ye with more than 70% of deals involving solar PV or wind, and 16% involving biofu- -els (Bloomberg 2017 ). However, this is dwarfed by the spending of these companies +els (Bloomberg [^2017]:). However, this is dwarfed by the spending of these companies on fossil fuels. One estimate is that renewables account for about 3% of the total annual spending (around USD 100 billion) by the world’s five biggest oil companies -(Schneyer and Bousso 2018 ). Bank finance for fossil fuels increased in 2017 by +(Schneyer and Bousso [^2018]:). Bank finance for fossil fuels increased in 2017 by -11% relative to that in 2016, after a significant decline in 2016 (RAN 2018 ). +11% relative to that in 2016, after a significant decline in 2016 (RAN [^2018]:). -``` In 2017, as in previous years, renewables saw the greatest increases in capacity -``` + in the power sector, whereas the growth of renewables in the heating, cooling, and transport sectors was comparatively slow. Sector coupling—the interconnection of @@ -5755,7 +3704,7 @@ of renewable electricity for heating to reduce the curtailment of wind, solar PV hydropower. Several USA states are examining options for electrification, specifi- -cally to increase the overall renewable energy share (NEEP 2017 ). +cally to increase the overall renewable energy share (NEEP [^2017]:). **2.2.1.1 Trends in the Renewable Power Sector** @@ -5777,12 +3726,11 @@ power. Wind and hydropower installations were in second and third positions, con tributing about 29% and 11% of the increase in renewable generation capacity, -respectively (REN21-GSR 2018 ). +respectively (REN21-GSR [^2018]:). -``` In 2017, renewables accounted for an estimated 70% of net additions to the -``` -global power-generating capacity, up from 63% in 2016 (REN21-GSR 2018 ). The + +global power-generating capacity, up from 63% in 2016 (REN21-GSR [^2018]:). The cost-competitiveness of renewable power generation continued to improve. Wind @@ -5799,85 +3747,45 @@ electricity generation. Offshore wind prices also fell significantly in 2017, as ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 13 ``` petitive tenders in Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands resulted in bids that were - competitive with new conventional power generation. - -``` By the end of 2017, the countries with the greatest total installed renewable elec- -``` tric capacities were China, the USA, Brazil, Germany, and Canada. When only solar - and wind capacities are considered, the top countries were China, the USA, and - Germany, followed by Japan, India, and Italy, and then by Spain and the UK, which - had about equal amounts of capacity by the year’s end. - -``` Seventeen countries have more than 90% renewable electricity, with the majority -``` supplied almost completely by hydropower. However, three of these, Uruguay, - Costa Rica, and Ethiopia, also have significant contributions from wind power - -(32%, 10%, and 7%, respectively) (REN21-GSR 2018 ). Increasing proportions of - +(32%, 10%, and 7%, respectively) (REN21-GSR [^2018]:). Increasing proportions of variable renewable electricity (VRE) must be integrated into electricity systems, - and VRE penetration reached locally significant levels in 2017. The countries lead- - ing the way with wind and solar penetration are Denmark (52%), Uruguay (32%), - and Cape Verde (31%), with another three countries at or above the 25% VRE pen- - etration mark. Several countries and regions integrated much higher shares of VRE - into their energy systems as instantaneous shares of the total demand for short peri- - ods during 2017, e.g., South Australia (more than 100% of load from wind power - alone, and 44% of load from solar PV alone on another occasion), Germany (66% - of load from wind and solar combined), Texas (54% of load from wind alone), and - -Ireland (60% of load from wind alone) (Parkinson 2017 ). - -``` +Ireland (60% of load from wind alone) (Parkinson [^2017]:). Curtailment—the forced reduction of wind and solar generation—is an indicator -``` of grid integration challenges. In six of the jurisdictions with the highest VRE pen- - -etration, the curtailment rates were low (0–6%) in 2016 (Wynn 2018 ). Although - +etration, the curtailment rates were low (0–6%) in 2016 (Wynn [^2018]:). Although curtailment initially tends to increase as the VRE share increases, some jurisdictions - have successfully introduced measures, such as transmission upgrades, that have - -significantly reduced curtailment (Wynn 2018 ). Integration challenges have led to - +significantly reduced curtailment (Wynn [^2018]:). Integration challenges have led to high curtailment rates in China, the world’s largest wind and solar PV market (ECNS. - -CN 2018 ). These were reduced in 2017, with the average curtailment of wind power - +CN [^2018]:). These were reduced in 2017, with the average curtailment of wind power for the year at around 12%, down from 17% in 2016, and the average curtailment of - -solar PV was 6–7%, down 4.3% relative to that in 2016 (Haugwitz 2018 ). - -``` +solar PV was 6–7%, down 4.3% relative to that in 2016 (Haugwitz [^2018]:). The ongoing increase in the growth and geographic expansion of renewable -``` energy was driven by the continued decline in the prices for renewable energy - technologies (in particular, for solar PV and wind power), caused by the increasing - power demand in some countries and by targeted renewable energy support mecha- - -nisms.^44 Solar PV and onshore wind power are now competitive with new fossil fuel +nisms.[^44] Solar PV and onshore wind power are now competitive with new fossil fuel generation in an increasing number of locations, due in part to declines in system @@ -5885,11 +3793,10 @@ component prices and to improvements in generation efficiency. The bid prices fo offshore wind power also dropped significantly in Europe during 2016 (FT -12.9. 2017 ). +12.9.[^2017]:). -``` Such declines in cost are particularly important in developing and emerging -``` + economies, and in isolated electric systems (such as on islands or in isolated rural communities) where electricity prices tend to be high (if they are not heavily subsi- @@ -5898,8 +3805,7 @@ dized), where there is a shortage of generation, and where renewable energy resources are particularly plentiful, making renewable electricity more competitive -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 14 @@ -5913,16 +3819,15 @@ through policies such as tendering or feed-in tariffs, in order to achieve the d growth quickly. -``` Approximately 1.06 billion people, most in sub-Saharan Africa, lived without -``` -electricity in 2016, 223 million fewer than in 2012 (IEA-WEO 2016 ; IEA-EAO -2017 ). Distributed renewables for energy access (DREA) systems were serving an +electricity in 2016, 223 million fewer than in 2012 (IEA-WEO [^2016]:; IEA-EAO + +[^2017]:). Distributed renewables for energy access (DREA) systems were serving an estimated 300 million people at the end of 2016, and they comprised about 6% of -new electricity connections worldwide between 2012 and 2016 (IRENA-P 2017 ). In +new electricity connections worldwide between 2012 and 2016 (IRENA-P [^2017]:). In places where the electricity grid does not reach or is unreliable, DREA technologies @@ -5932,11 +3837,11 @@ of the population of Bangladesh gained access to electricity through solar home systems (SHS), and more than 50% of the off-grid population in Kenya is served by -DREA systems (Dahlberg 2018 ). Off-grid solar devices, such as solar lanterns and +DREA systems (Dahlberg [^2018]:). Off-grid solar devices, such as solar lanterns and SHS, displayed annual growth rates of 60% between 2013 and 2017 (Dahlberg -2018 ). +[^2018]:). **2.2.1.2 Heating and Cooling** @@ -5944,30 +3849,29 @@ Energy use for heating and cooling is estimated to have accounted for just over of the total world final energy consumption in 2017, with about half of that used for -industrial process heat (IEA-RE 2017 ). Around 27% of this was supplied by renew- +industrial process heat (IEA-RE [^2017]:). Around 27% of this was supplied by renew- ables. The largest share of renewable heating was from traditional biomass, which continued to supply about 16.4% of the global heat demand, predominantly for -cooking in the developing world (IEA-RE 2017 ). Renewable energy—excluding +cooking in the developing world (IEA-RE [^2017]:). Renewable energy—excluding traditional biomass—supplied approximately 9% of the total global heat production -in 2017, up from about 6% in 2008 (REN21-GSR 2018 ). +in 2017, up from about 6% in 2008 (REN21-GSR [^2018]:). -``` Renewable heating and cooling receives much less attention than renewable -``` + power generation, and has been identified as the ‘sleeping giant of energy policy’ -for the past decade (IEA-Collier 2018 ). The use of modern renewable heat has +for the past decade (IEA-Collier [^2018]:). The use of modern renewable heat has increased at an average rate close to 3% per year since 2008, gradually increasing its share of heat supply, but it lags well behind the average annual increase of 17% -in modern renewables for electricity (IEA-RE 2017 ). Renewable energy technolo- +in modern renewables for electricity (IEA-RE [^2017]:). Renewable energy technolo- gies for heating and cooling include a variety of solar thermal collectors for differ- @@ -5979,21 +3883,19 @@ and subsequently used for heat; and any type of renewable electricity used for h ing. Heat may be supplied by on-site equipment or by a district heating network. -``` A wide range of temperature requirements exist, from temperatures of around -``` + 40–70  °C for space and water heating in buildings, to steam at several hundred -degrees Celsius for some industrial processes (Averfalk et  al. 2017 ; USA-EPA +degrees Celsius for some industrial processes (Averfalk et  al. [^2017]:; USA-EPA -2017 ). The variety in renewable heating systems and applications is much greater +[^2017]:). The variety in renewable heating systems and applications is much greater than in the renewable power sector, which makes standardization to reduce costs by ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 15 ``` @@ -6011,7 +3913,7 @@ the greatest share, providing an estimated 68% of renewable heat, followed by renewable electricity at 18%, solar thermal at around 7%, district heating at 4% -(which was nearly all bioenergy), and geothermal at 2% (REN21-GSR 2018 ). +(which was nearly all bioenergy), and geothermal at 2% (REN21-GSR [^2018]:). Although additional bio-heat and solar thermal capacities were added in 2017, the @@ -6019,41 +3921,39 @@ growth in both markets continued to slow. The trends in direct geothermal heatin are unclear. -``` Bioenergy systems provide individual heating in residential and medium-sized -``` + office buildings, either as stand-alone systems or in addition to an existing central heating system, and bioenergy also accounts for 95% of district heating (IEA-RE -2017 ). District heating systems are suitable for use in densely populated regions +[^2017]:). District heating systems are suitable for use in densely populated regions with an annual heating demand during ≥4 months of the year, such as in the north- ern part of China, Denmark, Germany, Japan, Poland, Russia, Sweden, the UK, and -the northern United States (IRENA-RE-H 2017 ). However, district heating supplies +the northern United States (IRENA-RE-H [^2017]:). However, district heating supplies a very small proportion of global heating needs. The majority of district heating systems are fuelled by either coal or gas, with the share of renewables ranging from -0% to 42% (IRENA-RE-H 2017 ). Switching existing districting heating systems +0% to 42% (IRENA-RE-H [^2017]:). Switching existing districting heating systems -from fossil fuels to renewables has considerable potential (IRENA-RE-H 2017 ). +from fossil fuels to renewables has considerable potential (IRENA-RE-H [^2017]:). Since the 1980s, Sweden has progressively switched from an almost entirely fossil- fuelled heating supply to systems supplied by 90% renewables and recycled heat -(Brown 2018 ). District heating can combine different sources of heat, and can play +(Brown [^2018]:). District heating can combine different sources of heat, and can play a positive role in the integration of VRE through the use of electric heat pumps. -``` Solar thermal collector installations continued to decline globally in 2017, with -``` -a reduction of 3% (REN21-GSR 2018 ) compared with 2016, but the markets in + +a reduction of 3% (REN21-GSR [^2018]:) compared with 2016, but the markets in China and India remained strong. In Europe, hybrid systems, in which solar thermal @@ -6068,7 +3968,7 @@ Electricity accounts for an estimated 6% of the total heating and cooling con- ``` sumption in buildings and industry, with about half of that electricity estimated to -be renewable (IEA-RE 2017 ). The further electrification of heating and cooling +be renewable (IEA-RE [^2017]:). The further electrification of heating and cooling drew increasing attention in 2017, particularly in the United States and China. @@ -6080,17 +3980,12 @@ grid, especially when feed-in tariffs for solar electricity are reduced or have entirely phased out. -``` -Space cooling accounts for about 2% (REN21-GSR 2018 ) of the total world final -``` -energy consumption, and is supplied almost entirely by electricity (IEA-RE 2017 ). - +Space cooling accounts for about 2% (REN21-GSR [^2018]:) of the total world final +energy consumption, and is supplied almost entirely by electricity (IEA-RE [^2017]:). Solar-based space-cooling systems are still in the minority compared with conven- - tional air-conditioning systems. -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 16 @@ -6100,15 +3995,14 @@ The global energy demand for transport increased by an average of 2.1% between 2000 and 2016, and is responsible for approximately 29% of the final global energy -use and 24% of GHG emissions (IEA-WEO 2017 ). The vast majority (92%) of +use and 24% of GHG emissions (IEA-WEO [^2017]:). The vast majority (92%) of global transport energy needs are met by oil, with small proportions met by biofuels -(2.9%) and electricity (1.4%) (IEA-WEO 2017 ). +(2.9%) and electricity (1.4%) (IEA-WEO [^2017]:). -``` There are three main entry points for renewable energy in the transport sector: -``` + the use of 100% liquid biofuels or biofuels blended with conventional fuels; natural gas vehicles and infrastructure (these can run on upgraded biogas); and the electri- @@ -6117,20 +4011,19 @@ fication of transport (if the electricity is itself renewable), which can be via or hydrogen in fuel cells. -``` Biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) make by far the greatest contribution to -``` + renewable transport. The overall renewable share of road transport energy use was -estimated to be 4.2% in 2016, with nearly all of that from biofuels (IEA-RE 2017 ). +estimated to be 4.2% in 2016, with nearly all of that from biofuels (IEA-RE [^2017]:). In 2017, global bioethanol production increased by 2.5% relative to that in 2016, with a slight decline in Brazil offset by increases in the USA, Europe, and China -(IEA OIL 2018 ). Biodiesel production remained relatively stable in 2017, following +(IEA OIL [^2018]:). Biodiesel production remained relatively stable in 2017, following -a 9% increase in 2016 relative to 2015 (IEA OIL 2018 ). +a 9% increase in 2016 relative to 2015 (IEA OIL [^2018]:). ``` The technology for producing, purifying, and upgrading biogas for use in trans- @@ -6141,52 +4034,35 @@ associated infrastructure are increasing slowly but steadily internationally. Ma countries have relatively well-developed NGV infrastructures, and NGVs provide a -good entry point for biogas in the transport sector (IRENA-RV- 2017 ). The largest +good entry point for biogas in the transport sector (IRENA-RV-[^2017]:). The largest producers of biogas for vehicle fuel in 2016 were Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, -the UK, and the USA (IRENA-RV- 2017 ). The main barriers to the further expansion +the UK, and the USA (IRENA-RV-[^2017]:). The main barriers to the further expansion of biogas for transport are economic, with supply costs of USD 0.22–1.55 per cubic -metre (m^3 ), compared with natural gas prices, which are as low as USD 0.13 per m^3. +metre (m[^3]), compared with natural gas prices, which are as low as USD 0.13 per m[^3]. However, the lack of consistent regulation and access to gas grids are also signifi- - cant barriers (IRENA-RV-2017). - -``` Historically, the electrification of the transport sector has been limited to trains, -``` light rail, and some buses. In 2017, there were signs that the entire sector would - open to electrification. Fully electric passenger cars, scooters, and bicycles are rap- - idly becoming common-place, and prototypes for heavy-duty trucks, planes, and - -ships were released in 2017 (Hawkins 2017 ). - -``` +ships were released in 2017 (Hawkins [^2017]:). The number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road passed the three million mark -``` -in 2017 (Guardian 25.12. 2017 ). Annual sales are still only a very small proportion - +in 2017 (Guardian 25.12.[^2017]:). Annual sales are still only a very small proportion of the global total (1%), but this is set to change. In 2017, partly influenced by the - scandal over diesel emissions cheating, five countries announced their intention to - ban sales of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030 (India, the Netherlands, and - -Slovenia) or 2040 (France and the UK) (Bloomberg 11. 2017 ). The announcement - +Slovenia) or 2040 (France and the UK) (Bloomberg 11.[^2017]:). The announcement of electric product lines by car manufacturers in 2017 was another breakthrough. - However, the number of EVs on the road is dwarfed by the number of electric bikes. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 17 ``` @@ -6194,15 +4070,14 @@ The global fleet was estimated to be around 200 million at the end of 2016, most them in China, and 30% of bicycles sold in the Netherlands were e-bikes in 2017 -(Wang 2017 ). Electric two- and three-wheel vehicles account for less than 0.5% of +(Wang [^2017]:). Electric two- and three-wheel vehicles account for less than 0.5% of all transport energy use, but they account for most of the remaining renewable share -after biofuels (IEA-RE 2017 ). +after biofuels (IEA-RE [^2017]:). -``` Further electrification of the transport sector will potentially create a new market -``` + for renewable energy and ease the integration of variable renewable energy, if mar- ket and policy settings ensure that the charging patterns are effectively harmonized @@ -6211,19 +4086,17 @@ with the requirements of electricity systems. There are already examples of coun tries and cities supplying electricity for both heavy and light rail from renewable -electricity, including the Netherlands (BI 2017 ), Delhi (Times of India 2017 ), and +electricity, including the Netherlands (BI [^2017]:), Delhi (Times of India [^2017]:), and -Santiago de Chile (CT 2017 ). +Santiago de Chile (CT [^2017]:). -``` Road transport accounts for 67% of global transport energy use, and two-thirds -``` + of that is used for passenger transport. -``` Aviation accounts for around 11% of the total energy used in transport -``` -(US-EIA- 2017 ). In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization + +(US-EIA-[^2017]:). In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a UN agency, announced a landmark agreement to mitigate GHG emis- @@ -6231,62 +4104,44 @@ sions in the aviation sector. By the end of 2017, 106 states representing 90.8% global air traffic had settled on a global emissions reduction scheme (Guardian -6.10. 2016 ). Together with technical and operational improvements, this agreement +6.10.[^2016]:). Together with technical and operational improvements, this agreement will support the production and use of sustainable aviation fuels, specifically drop- -in fuels produced from biomass and different types of waste (ICAO 2018 ). In 2017, +in fuels produced from biomass and different types of waste (ICAO [^2018]:). In 2017, Norway announced a target of 100% electric short-haul flights by 2040 (Guardian -18.1. 2018 ). +18.1.[^2018]:). -``` Shipping consumes around 12% of the global energy used in transport -``` -(US-EIA- 2017 ) and is responsible for approximately 2.0% of global CO 2 emis- +(US-EIA-[^2017]:) and is responsible for approximately 2.0% of global CO[^2]: emis- sions. There are multiple entry points for renewable energy: ships can incorporate wind (sails) and solar energy directly, and can use biofuels, synthetic fuels, or - hydrogen produced with renewable electricity for propulsion. China saw the launch - of the world’s first all-electric cargo ship in 2017, and in Sweden, two large ferries - -were converted from diesel to electricity in 2017 (China Daily 14.11. 2017 ). In 2017, - +were converted from diesel to electricity in 2017 (China Daily 14.11.[^2017]:). In 2017, the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) Marine Environment Protection - Committee (MEPC) approved a roadmap (2017–2023) to develop a strategy for - reducing GHG emissions from ships. The roadmap includes plans for an initial - -GHG strategy to be adopted in 2018 (IMO 2017 ). - -``` +GHG strategy to be adopted in 2018 (IMO [^2017]:). Rail accounts for around 1.9% of the total energy used in transport and is the -``` most highly electrified transport sector. The share of rail transport powered by elec- - -tricity was estimated to be 39% in 2015, up from 29% in 2005 (IEA-UIC 2017 ). Just - +tricity was estimated to be 39% in 2015, up from 29% in 2005 (IEA-UIC [^2017]:). Just over a third of the electricity (9% of rail energy) is estimated to be derived from - -renewable sources (IEA-UIC 2017 ). Some jurisdictions are opting to ensure that the - +renewable sources (IEA-UIC [^2017]:). Some jurisdictions are opting to ensure that the proportion of energy from renewable sources in their transport sectors is well above - the share of renewable energy in their power sectors. For example, the Dutch rail- -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 18 way company NS announced that its target to power all electric trains with 100% -renewable electricity was achieved ahead of schedule in 2017 (Caughill 2017 ), and +renewable electricity was achieved ahead of schedule in 2017 (Caughill [^2017]:), and the New South Wales Government in Australia announced a renewable tender for @@ -6301,13 +4156,13 @@ transport sector. At the climate conference in November 2017 in Bonn, Germany, multi-stakeholder alliance launched the Transport Decarbonisation Alliance (UN-P -2018 ). France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Costa Rica, and the Paris Process on +[^2018]:). France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Costa Rica, and the Paris Process on Mobility and Climate (PPMC) are members of the Alliance, which includes coun- tries, cities, regions, and private-sector companies committed to ambitious action on -transport and climate change (UN-P 2018 ). +transport and climate change (UN-P [^2018]:). **References** @@ -6339,12 +4194,11 @@ energy-2017-natural-gas.pdf According to https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ gas, gas prices fell by 14% between 2 Jan 2017 and 1 January 2018 (viewed 21 March 2018) BI (2017) Patrick Caughill, “All Dutch Trains Now Run On 100% Wind Power”, Business Insider. 3 June -2017. [http://uk.businessinsider.com/wind-power-trains-in-netherlands-2017-6?r=US&IR=TT](http://uk.businessinsider.com/wind-power-trains-in-netherlands-2017-6?r=US&IR=TT) +2017. http://uk.businessinsider.com/wind-power-trains-in-netherlands-2017-6?r=US&IR=TT ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 19 ``` @@ -6398,8 +4252,7 @@ Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018 (Frankfurt: 2018). Page 34. FT (12.9.2017), Financial Times, 12 September 2017, Natalie Thomas, Powerful turbines slash price of offshore wind farms, https://www.ft.com/content/28b0eb2e-96f1-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 20 @@ -6431,7 +4284,7 @@ environment/2017/dec/25/electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-cars-3m-worldwide ICAO (2018) ICAO Website, Environment, September 2018,https://www.icao.int/environmental- protection/GFAAF/Pages/default.aspx (IEA- Collier 2018), Ute Collier ,Commentary: More policy attention is needed for renewable -heat, (Paris, France: International Energy Agency, 25 January 2018), [http://www.iea.org/news-](http://www.iea.org/news-) +heat, (Paris, France: International Energy Agency, 25 January 2018), [http://www.iea.org/news](http://www.iea.org/news)- room/news/2018/january/commentary-more-policy-attention-is-needed-for-renewable-heat. html IEA-EAO (2017) International Energy Agency, Energy Access Outlook 2017, Table  2.1, @@ -6450,14 +4303,13 @@ IEA-RE (2017),International Energy Agency Renewables 2017. Analysis and Forecasts to 2022. (Paris, France: 2017), Page 121. [http://www.iea.org/](http://www.iea.org/) bookshop/761-Market_Report_Series:_Renewables_2017 IEA-WEO (2017), IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 (Paris: 2017) p.  648. https:// -[http://www.iea.org/weo2017/](http://www.iea.org/weo2017/) ; GHG emissions share for 2015 from IEA, CO2 +[www.iea.org/weo2017/](www.iea.org/weo2017/) ; GHG emissions share for 2015 from IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2017, (Paris: 2017) p.  12. [http://www.iea.org/](http://www.iea.org/) bookshop/757-CO2_Emissions_from_Fuel_Combustion_2017 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 21 ``` @@ -6511,8 +4363,7 @@ Shearer (2017), Christine Shearer, “Coal Phase-Out: First Global Survey of Com Political Entities Exiting Coal”, Endcoal. 18 October 2017. https://endcoal.org/2017/10/ coal-phase-out-first-global-survey-of-companies-and-political-entities-exiting-coal/ -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research 22 @@ -6541,7 +4392,7 @@ UNEP-FS (2018), Frankfurt School  - UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sus Energy Finance (FS-UNEP) in co-operation with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018 (Frankfurt, Germany: 2018). Pages 14, 15 & 26. UNFCCC (2017), United Nation—Climate Change, UNFCCC—The Paris Agreement, website -viewed 12th March 2018, [http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php;](http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php;) Jocelyn Timperley, +viewed 12th March 2018, [http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php](http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php); Jocelyn Timperley, COP23: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Bonn, CarbonBrief, 19 November 2017, https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop23-key-outcomes-agreed-un-climate-talks-bonn UN-P (2018), United Nations, Press release, New Transport Decarbonisation Alliance @@ -6552,7 +4403,7 @@ Heating and Cooling, Renewable Industrial Process Heat, https://www.epa.gov/rhc/ industrial-process-heat, updated 26 October 2017, US-EIA (2017) U.S.  Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2017. Transportation sector passenger transport and energy consumption by region and mode: https:// -[http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=50-IEO2017®ion=0-0&cases=Reference&](http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=50-IEO2017®ion=0-0&cases=Reference&) +[www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=50-IEO2017®ion=0-0&cases=Reference&](www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=50-IEO2017®ion=0-0&cases=Reference&) start=2010&end=2020&f=A&linechart=Reference-d082317.2-50-IEO2017&sourcekey=0 Wynn (2018), Wynn, G.  Power-Industry Transition, Here and Now: Wind and Solar Won’t Break the Grid: Nine Case Studies. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. @@ -6562,7 +4413,6 @@ Transition-Here-and-Now_February-2018.pdf ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 23 ``` @@ -6577,7 +4427,7 @@ us-china-carbon/china-aims-for-emission-trading-scheme-in-big-step-vs-global-war idUSKBN1ED0R6 **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -6587,14 +4437,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -2 State of Research - +[^2]: State of Research © The Author(s) 2019 25 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_3 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 3 +**Chapter 3** #### Methodology @@ -6616,21 +4464,20 @@ to stay within a 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limit. The following model presented: -- For the non-energy GHG emission pathways, the _Generalized Equal Quantile_ +• For the non-energy GHG emission pathways, the Generalized Equal Quantile ``` Walk (GQW) method, the land-based sequestration design method and the Carbon cycle and climate (MAGICC) model. ``` -- For the energy pathways, a renewable energy resources assessment for space +• For the energy pathways, a renewable energy resources assessment for space ``` constrained environments ([R]E-SPACE, the transport scenario model (TRAEM), the Energy System Model (EM) and the power system model [R]E 24/7. ``` -``` The methodologies of an employment analysis model, and a metal resource -``` + assessment tool are outlined. These models have been used to examine the analysis of the energy scenario results. @@ -6656,39 +4503,23 @@ Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au; kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au - 26 -Achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement (UNFCCC 2015 ) will require - +Achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement (UNFCCC [^2015]:) will require the total decarbonisation of the energy system by 2050, with a global emissions - -peak no later than 2020 (Hare and Roming 2016 ) and a drastic reduction in non- - -energy- related greenhouse gases (GHGs), including land-use-related emissions - -(Rogelj and den Elzen 2016 ). Over the past decades, numerous computer models - +peak no later than 2020 (Hare and Roming [^2016]:) and a drastic reduction in non- +energy-related greenhouse gases (GHGs), including land-use-related emissions +(Rogelj and den Elzen [^2016]:). Over the past decades, numerous computer models have been developed to analyse different emissions pathways and to investigate the - effects of changes in policy and technology and adjustments in global and regional - economies. A wide range of climate models is used to calculate non-energy-related - GHG emissions pathways and their impacts on the global climate. The - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that “Climate models - have continued to be developed and improved since the AR4 [published in - 2007-author], and many models have been extended into Earth System models by - including the representation of biogeochemical cycles important to climate change” - -(Flato and Marotzke 2013 ). Whereas climate models analyse the effects of a variety - -of GHG emissions, energy scenarios only cover energy-related CO 2. Their purpose - +(Flato and Marotzke [^2013]:). Whereas climate models analyse the effects of a variety +of GHG emissions, energy scenarios only cover energy-related CO[^2]:. Their purpose is to investigate future energy systems to identify feasible technological and/or eco- nomic pathways. Like climate models, energy models are diverse and vary signifi- @@ -6699,7 +4530,7 @@ Sources and Climate Change Mitigation states that there is “enormous variation the detail and structure of the models used to construct the scenarios” (Fischedick -and Schaeffer 2011 ). Energy scenarios with high penetrations of variable renewable +and Schaeffer [^2011]:). Energy scenarios with high penetrations of variable renewable power generation—solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power—require a higher @@ -6707,9 +4538,8 @@ degree of time resolution to assess the security of 24/7 electricity supplies th those with mainly dispatchable power generation. -``` Modelling the energy system involves a variety of methodological requirements, -``` + which pose specific challenges when addressed on the global level: the quantitative projection of developments in (future) technologies and potential markets; a consis- @@ -6720,71 +4550,52 @@ tions; reliable data on the current situations in all regions; an assessment of flows and emissions across all energy subsectors, such as industry, transport, resi- -dential, etc.; and a comprehensive assessment of all CO 2 emissions, in order to assess - +dential, etc.; and a comprehensive assessment of all CO[^2]: emissions, in order to assess the impact of the energy system on climate change. Finally, analysing and assessing the energy transition require a long-term perspective on future developments. - -``` Changes to energy markets require long-term decisions to be made because -``` infrastructural changes are potentially required, and are therefore independent of - short-term market developments. The power market cannot function optimally - without long-term infrastructure planning. Grid modifications and the roll-out of - smart metering infrastructure, for example, require several years to implement. - These technologies form the basis of the energy market and allow energy trading. - Therefore, the time required for infrastructure planning and other substantial trans- - formation processes must be considered in the scenario-building approach. - -``` Although numerous energy scenarios that provide 100% renewable energy at the -``` community, state, and national levels have been published in the past decade - -(Elliston and MacGill 2014 ; Teske and Dominish 2016 ; Klaus et al. 2010 ; Teske and - -Brown 2012 ), only a handful of analyses have been performed on a global level. The - +(Elliston and MacGill [^2014]:; Teske and Dominish [^2016]:; Klaus et al. [^2010]:; Teske and +Brown [^2012]:), only a handful of analyses have been performed on a global level. The main research projects on 100% renewable energy supplies published between 2015 - and 2018 were: ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 27 ``` -- A Road Map to 100 Percent Renewable Energy in 139 Countries by 2050, Mark +– A Road Map to 100 Percent Renewable Energy in 139 Countries by 2050, Mark ``` Jacobson, Charles Q.  Choi, Stanford Engineering, Stanford University, USA, -2017 (Jacobson and Choi 2017 ); +2017 (Jacobson and Choi 2017); ``` -- Internet of Energy, A 100% Renewable Electricity System, Christian Breyer, +– Internet of Energy, A 100% Renewable Electricity System, Christian Breyer, ``` Neo Carbon Energy, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland, 2016 -(Breyer 2016 ; Breyer and Bogdanov 2018 ); +(Breyer 2016; Breyer and Bogdanov 2018); ``` -- Energy [R]evolution—A sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, Greenpeace +– Energy [R]evolution—A sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, Greenpeace ``` International with the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, System Analysis and Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, -Germany (Teske and Pregger 2015 ). -``` +Germany (Teske and Pregger 2015). ``` All the studies listed above share the same modelling horizon until 2050 and focus -``` + clearly on the fast and massive deployment of renewable energy resources (RES). Options with large uncertainties in terms of techno-economic, societal, and environ- @@ -6801,31 +4612,20 @@ tion of power demand and supply, in addition to the pathway modelling. On the ot hand, the Energy [R]evolution study covers the complete energy sector, with detailed -insights into the heat and transport sectors. However, all these studies cover only CO 2 - +insights into the heat and transport sectors. However, all these studies cover only CO2 emissions from the energy system, without further investigation of other GHG sources. -``` Therefore, our project combines these strengths into a single approach by com- -``` bining a set of models. The approach is based on the scenario modelling used for the - Energy [R]evolution scenario series developed by the authors between 2004 and 2015. It models scenarios of comprehensive pathways for power, heat, and fuel sup- - ply in 5-year steps, and includes specific insights from a transport model. The sce- - nario building is also complemented by a simulation with hourly resolution to - calculate the electricity storage demand and to increase the spatial resolution from - 10 to 72 regions. Another significant improvement over existing studies is its com- - bination with a climate model. The interaction between non-energy GHG pathways - and a high-resolution integrated energy assessment model (IAM) provides addi- - tional information on how to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. **3.1 100% Renewable Energy—Modelling Approach** @@ -6846,10 +4646,9 @@ Therefore, societal frameworks, measures, and policy interventions are not expli discussed in this scenario analysis, but they are implicit elements in the definition of -the narratives and assumptions as core step of scenario development (see Chap. 5). - -3 Methodology +the narratives and assumptions as core step of scenario development (see Chap. [^5]:). +[^3]: Methodology 28 @@ -6859,63 +4658,53 @@ To develop a global plan, the authors combined various established computer models: -- Global GHG Model: The non-energy GHG emissions scenarios are calculated +• Global GHG Model: The non-energy GHG emissions scenarios are calculated -``` with the following models: -``` -- Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW): This statistical method is used to - complement the CO 2 pathways with the non-CO 2 regional emissions for the - relevant GHGs and aerosols, based on a statistical analysis of the large num- - ber (~700) of multi-gas emission pathways underlying the recent IPCC Fifth - Assessment Report and the recently published IPCC Special Report on - 1.5 °C. The GQW method calculates the median non-CO 2 gas emission levels - every 5 years, conditional on the energy-related CO 2 emission level percentile - of the ‘source’ pathway. This method is further developed in this project— - building on an earlier ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ method—and is now better able - to capture the emission dynamics of low-mitigation pathways. -- Land-based sequestration design: A Monte Carlo analysis across temperate, - boreal, subtropical, and tropical regions has been performed based on various - literature-based estimates of sequestration rates, sequestration periods, and the - areas available for a number of sequestration options. This approach can be seen - as a quantified literature synthesis of the potential for land-based CO 2 sequestra- - tion, which is not reliant on bioenergy with sequestration and storage (BECCS) -- Carbon cycle and climate modelling (MAGICC): This study used the - MAGICC climate model, which also underlies the classification of both the - IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the IPCC Special Report on 1.5  °C in - terms of the ability of various scenarios to limit the temperature increase to - below 2.0  °C or 1.5  °C.  MAGICC is constantly evolving, but its core goes - back to the 1980s, and it represents one of the most established reduced- - complexity climate models in the international community. -- Renewable Resource Assessment [R]E-SPACE: This is based on a Geographic -``` +– Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW): This statistical method is used to +complement the CO2 pathways with the non-CO2 regional emissions for the +relevant GHGs and aerosols, based on a statistical analysis of the large num- +ber (~700) of multi-gas emission pathways underlying the recent IPCC Fifth +Assessment Report and the recently published IPCC Special Report on +1.5 °C. The GQW method calculates the median non-CO2 gas emission levels +every 5 years, conditional on the energy-related CO2 emission level percentile +of the ‘source’ pathway. This method is further developed in this project— +building on an earlier ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ method—and is now better able +to capture the emission dynamics of low-mitigation pathways. +– Land-based sequestration design: A Monte Carlo analysis across temperate, +boreal, subtropical, and tropical regions has been performed based on various +literature-based estimates of sequestration rates, sequestration periods, and the +areas available for a number of sequestration options. This approach can be seen +as a quantified literature synthesis of the potential for land-based CO2 sequestra- +tion, which is not reliant on bioenergy with sequestration and storage (BECCS) +– Carbon cycle and climate modelling (MAGICC): This study used the +MAGICC climate model, which also underlies the classification of both the +IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the IPCC Special Report on 1.5  °C in +terms of the ability of various scenarios to limit the temperature increase to +below 2.0  °C or 1.5  °C.  MAGICC is constantly evolving, but its core goes +back to the 1980s, and it represents one of the most established reduced- +complexity climate models in the international community. +• Renewable Resource Assessment [R]E-SPACE: This is based on a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach and provides maps of the solar and wind poten- tials in space-constrained environments. GIS attempts to emulate processes in the real -world, at a single point in time or over an extended period (Goodchild 2005 ). The +world, at a single point in time or over an extended period (Goodchild 2005). The primary purpose of GIS mapping is to ascertain whether renewable energy resources (primarily solar and wind) are sufficiently available in each region. It also provides an overview of the existing electricity infrastructures for fossil fuel and renewable sources. -``` -- Transport model (TRAEM): The transport scenario model allows the representa- - -``` +• Transport model (TRAEM): The transport scenario model allows the representa- tion of long-term transport developments in a consistent and transparent way. The model disaggregates transport into a set of different modes and calculates the final energy demand by multiplying the specific transport demand of each transport mode with the powertrain-specific energy demands, using passenger– km and tonne–km activity-based bottom-up approaches. The model applied is an accounting system, without system or ownership cost-optimization. -``` -- Energy system model (EM): The scenario model is a mathematical accounting - -``` +• Energy system model (EM): The scenario model is a mathematical accounting system for the energy sector that applies different methodologies. It aims to -``` + ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 29 ``` @@ -6933,13 +4722,11 @@ application of cost-optimization based on uncertain cost assumptions. However, an ex-post analysis of costs and investments shows the main economic effects of the pathways. ``` -- Power system model [R]E 24/7: This simulates the electricity system on an - -``` +• Power system model [R]E 24/7: This simulates the electricity system on an hourly basis and at geographic resolution to assess the requirements for infra- structure, such as grid connections, between different regions and electricity storages, depending on the demand profiles and power-generation characteristics -(Teske 2015 ). High-penetration or renewable-energy-only scenarios will contain +(Teske 2015). High-penetration or renewable-energy-only scenarios will contain significant proportions of variable solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power because they are inexpensive. Therefore, a power system model is required to assess the demand and supply patterns, the efficiency of power generation, and @@ -6949,86 +4736,63 @@ calculate the possible renewable power generation. On the demand side, either historical demand curves are used, or—if unavailable—demand curves are cal- culated based on assumptions of consumer behaviour, the electrical equipment and common electrical appliances. -``` -``` + Figure 3.1 provides an overview of the interactions between the energy- and -``` GIS-based models. The climate model is not directly connected but provided the - probabilistic temperatures for the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. The land-use and +non-CO[^2]: emissions modules provide information on additional gases based on the -non-CO 2 emissions modules provide information on additional gases based on the - -energy-related CO 2 emissions (output of the energy model). Besides the climate and - +energy-related CO[^2]: emissions (output of the energy model). Besides the climate and energy models, the effects on employment and the requirements for selected metal resources have been calculated (see Sects. 3.6 and 3.7). **3.2 Global Mapping—Renewable Energy Potential in Space-** - **Constrained Environments: [R]E-SPACE** The primary purpose of GIS mapping is to ascertain the renewable energy resources - (primarily solar and wind) available in each region. It also provides an overview of - the existing electricity infrastructures for fossil fuel and renewable sources. - -``` In this project, mapping was undertaken with the computer software QGIS. QGIS -``` is a free, cross-platform, open-source desktop GIS application that supports the - viewing, editing, and analysis of geo-spatial data. It analyses and edits spatial infor- - mation and composes and exports graphical maps, and was used to allocate solar -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 30 -**tuptuO** - +``` +t upt uO +``` **Resource model ([R]E SPACE)** ``` -GIS based renewable energy -potentials based on weather & -``` +GIS based renewable energy potentials based on weather & ``` land use data -``` + **Transport model (TRAEM** **)** -``` freight & passenger transport + ``` -``` -demand by mode -full energy balances: final energy -demand power, heat & transport,supply structure, primary energy +demand by mode full energy balances: final energydemand power, heat & transport,supply structure, primary energy demand by fuel, emission, investmen ``` +**t** + +**balanced RE power** + +**system, storage** + ``` -t +demand,curtailment ``` ``` -balanced RE power -``` -``` -system, storage -``` -``` -demand, -curtailment -``` -``` -total climate -change effects +total climatechange effects ``` ``` energy demand @@ -7059,8 +4823,7 @@ energy CO ``` ``` -2 -emissions +emissions2 ``` ``` annual @@ -7076,8 +4839,7 @@ related CO ``` ``` -2 -emission +emission2 ``` ``` s @@ -7094,38 +4856,37 @@ demand ``` & supply ``` -**Modellingcluster** - +``` +Modellingcluster +``` **Power system model** **([R]E 24/** ``` -7 -) -``` +7) ``` hourly balancing of -``` -``` + electricity supply & demand -``` -``` + in spatial resolutio -``` -``` + n -``` -``` + for sub regional clusters -``` + ``` Generalized Equal +``` +``` Quantile Walk Complementing no ``` ``` n- +``` +``` CO ``` ``` @@ -7151,27 +4912,20 @@ s **M** -``` -) -``` -``` +**)** + botto -``` -``` + m- -``` -``` + up simulation of future -``` -``` + energy balances based on GDP, -``` -``` + population, technology, + ``` -``` -& energy intensity development in -all sectors and for 10 world regions +& energy intensity development inall sectors and for 10 world regions ``` ``` Simplified land @@ -7186,29 +4940,19 @@ sequestration mode l ``` ``` -complementing reforestation, -restoration, +complementing reforestation, restoration, sustainable use and agroforestry options. ``` +**Reduced** + ``` -Reduced +complexity carbon cycle and climate model (MAGICC)to calculate the climatic effects of mult ``` ``` -complexity carbon cycle and climate model (MAGICC) -``` -``` -to calculate the climatic effects -``` -``` -of mult -``` -``` -i- -gas -``` +i-gas ``` pathways -``` + ``` Fig. 3.1 ``` @@ -7218,7 +4962,6 @@ Interaction of models in this study ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 31 ``` @@ -7343,15 +5086,13 @@ South New Zealand Australia—NEM Australia—SWIS ``` -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 32 -``` Wind speed data at different levels, in metres per second (m/s), were obtained -``` -from Vaisala 2017. For this analysis, wind speed at a height of 80 m was used to + +from Vaisala [^2017]:. For this analysis, wind speed at a height of 80 m was used to determine the electricity-generation potential. Wind speeds are categorized and @@ -7363,17 +5104,15 @@ sites. Land-cover types were constrained to bare soil and grasslands. The model only accounts for the onshore wind-generation potential. -``` Land-cover data were obtained from the Global Land Cover 2000 project (Global -``` -Land Cover 2015 ), hosted by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. + +Land Cover [^2015]:), hosted by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. The classification was based on the FAO Land Cover Classification System. -``` Similarly, solar resource data were obtained from the Global Solar Atlas (Global -``` -Solar Atlas 2016 ), owned by the World Bank Group and provided by SolarGis. Data + +Solar Atlas [^2016]:), owned by the World Bank Group and provided by SolarGis. Data categorized by direct normal irradiation were mapped to estimate the potential PVs @@ -7381,9 +5120,8 @@ in the different regions. To avoid conflict with competing uses of land, only th cover types ‘bare soil’ and ‘grasslands’ were included in the analysis. -``` The area of land available for potential solar and wind power generation was -``` + calculated at the cluster level using the Geometry tool in the QGIS-processing tool- box. Intersects (overlapping areas between different layers) were created between @@ -7394,9 +5132,8 @@ the total land area available into clusters. A correction was put in place manua sites that intersected the cluster boundaries and were part of two clusters. -``` For some maps (India, China, the Middle East, and OECD Pacific) with large -``` + data files, the analysis was performed using raster files for land use and renewable potentials. The raster tools ‘clipper’ (used to cut a raster file to the size of the clus- @@ -7418,9 +5155,8 @@ These maps show utility-scale installations. There are much larger expanses of l available for small-scale distributed energy generation. -``` The following types of maps were created for 10 world regions: -``` + Regional breakdown into a maximum of eight clusters: ``` @@ -7437,7 +5173,6 @@ other (see Sect. 3.8). ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 33 ``` @@ -7445,8 +5180,7 @@ S. Teske et al. **Fig. 3.3** Current electricity infrastructure in China -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 34 @@ -7496,13 +5230,12 @@ concentrated solar power plants. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 35 ``` **3.3 Transport Energy Model-TRAEM** -**_3.3.1 Transport Model Structure_** +**3.3.1 Transport Model Structure** The transport scenario model TRAEM (TRAnsport Energy Model) allows the mod- @@ -7526,9 +5259,8 @@ each of the 10 world regions. The calculation is performed in 5-year steps, from 2015 to 2050. -``` For all scenarios (5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C), the 2015 energy demand by region -``` + was adjusted to the IEA World Energy Balances 2017 and is therefore identical in all scenarios. The projected total energy demands for the reference scenario (5.0 °C) @@ -7541,79 +5273,67 @@ Scenario (IEA 2017b). The total energy demands by region for the years 2045 and **Fig. 3.5** Existing and potential solar power sites in Central and South America -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 36 Scenario was adjusted from 2020 onwards to 2050 in line with the carbon budget of - the 2.0 °C pathway and the 1.5 °C pathway. - -``` -In the transport model, the CO 2 emissions from biofuels are given a GHG emis- -``` +In the transport model, the CO[^2]: emissions from biofuels are given a GHG emis- sion factor of zero, because the downstream emissions level out with the upstream +emissions. The CO[^2]: emissions from synthetic fuels are also given a value of zero, -emissions. The CO 2 emissions from synthetic fuels are also given a value of zero, - -because the CO 2 used for producing the fuels upstream level out the downstream - +because the CO[^2]: used for producing the fuels upstream level out the downstream emissions. The upstream emissions from electricity and hydrogen production and all other fuels are factored into the energy system model described in Section 5 with - which the transport model has a data interface. The model distinguishes between - road, rail, aviation, and maritime passenger and freight transport modes. Road passenger transport modes include: -- Light duty vehicles (cars): automobiles, vans and sports utility vehicles with - up to eight seats for private transport, which are further distinguished into - small, medium and large cars; -- 2- and 3-wheel vehicles: includes rollers, motorbikes, and rickshaws; -- Busses: urban, suburban, and long-distance buses and minibuses serving pub- - lic and private-company transport services. +– Light duty vehicles (cars): automobiles, vans and sports utility vehicles with +up to eight seats for private transport, which are further distinguished into +small, medium and large cars; +– 2- and 3-wheel vehicles: includes rollers, motorbikes, and rickshaws; +– Busses: urban, suburban, and long-distance buses and minibuses serving pub- +lic and private-company transport services. Rail passenger: -- Urban metro/light rail vehicles; -- Regional/intercity trains; -- High-speed trains. +– Urban metro/light rail vehicles; +– Regional/intercity trains; +– High-speed trains. Aviation (passenger): -- Small and medium aircrafts for domestic flights; -- Medium and large aircrafts for international flights, distinguishing narrow- - body, wide-body, and regional jets. +– Small and medium aircrafts for domestic flights; +– Medium and large aircrafts for international flights, distinguishing narrow- +body, wide-body, and regional jets. Road freight: -- Light-duty trucks (< 3.5 t gross vehicle weight [GVW]); -- Medium-duty trucks (3.5–15 t GVW); -- Heavy-duty trucks (> 15 t GVW). +– Light-duty trucks (< 3.5 t gross vehicle weight [GVW]); +– Medium-duty trucks (3.5–15 t GVW); +– Heavy-duty trucks (> 15 t GVW). Rail freight: -- Ordinary freight, intermodal, and low-density high-value freight trains are - distinguished. +– Ordinary freight, intermodal, and low-density high-value freight trains are +distinguished. Navigation (freight): -- Inland navigation; -- Coastal ships for domestic navigation and maritime shipping are distinguished - in the model. +– Inland navigation; +– Coastal ships for domestic navigation and maritime shipping are distinguished +in the model. -``` We assume that energy efficiency improves over time. The changes in the pow- -``` ertrain shares over time are mainly driven by fleet electrification. Energy intensities ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 37 ``` @@ -7625,59 +5345,36 @@ demands of all transport modes (passenger and freight) are summed to the total energy demand by region. -``` Backcasting transport scenarios are modelled iteratively by fitting the drivetrain -``` + shares, transport performance (pkm or tkm), and modal shares until the specific -downstream CO 2 budgets of the world regions are met. The emission reductions are - +downstream CO[^2]: budgets of the world regions are met. The emission reductions are based on a combination of technical, operational, and behavioural measures during modelling—such as powertrain electrification, the use of biomass-based and syn- - thetically produced fuels, efficiency increases within transport modes, and modal - shifts towards more-efficient modes. - -``` The replacement of internal combustion engines by electric powertrains is priori- -``` tized in our modelling. However, the rapid electrification of fleets is quantity- - restricted over the immediately subsequent years until the capacities for battery - production, battery recharging, hydrogen production, and refuelling stations have - ramped up ubiquitously. Therefore, a shift towards more energy-efficient and elec- - trified passenger and freight transport modes, such as railways, is required and is - therefore one measure implemented in the model. Such modal shifts are especially - required in the OECD countries, to reduce carbon emissions while maintaining - transport performance at the current levels. Supply constraints on biomass and espe- - cially synfuel production will also limit rapid decarbonisation right from the start, - and motivate modal shifts and general restrictions to overall transport activities by - carbon-intensive transport modes. The 1.5  °C Scenario requires electrification, - modal shifts, and alternative fuel uptake to start earlier than the 2.0 °C Scenario and - particularly the 5.0  °C Scenario, and their more rapid implementation. However, - because electrification will remain quantity-restricted until the 2020s in any case, - widespread modal shifts and changes in mobility behaviour are modelled more - stringently within the 1.5 °C Scenario. The detailed modelling results are discussed +in Chap. [^6]:. -in Chap. 6. - -**_3.3.2 Transport Data_** +**3.3.2 Transport Data** We have derived historical and current data on transport activities (pkm, tkm) and @@ -7685,25 +5382,23 @@ total energy consumption levels according to transport mode from statistical age cies, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, etc., including: -- IEA Mobility Model; -- OECD statistics; -- World Bank Open Data; -- National and supranational statistical bodies; -- UIC IEA Railway Handbook; -- UIC Railway Synopsis; -- Railway operators data; - -3 Methodology +– IEA Mobility Model; +– OECD statistics; +– World Bank Open Data; +– National and supranational statistical bodies; +– UIC IEA Railway Handbook; +– UIC Railway Synopsis; +– Railway operators data; +[^3]: Methodology 38 -- HBEFA (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren); -- EIA Open Data. +– HBEFA (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren); +– EIA Open Data. -``` However, statistical data are often unavailable or lack consistency with other -``` + derived data (for example, on vehicle stock or occupancy rates in certain world regions). In these cases, we applied best guesses based on the scientific and grey @@ -7714,17 +5409,13 @@ German Aerospace Centre (DLR) vehicle databases and the state-of-the-art literature. -**_3.3.3 Transport Model Output_** - -Based on the TRAEM model, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions can be calcu- +**3.3.3 Transport Model Output** +Based on the TRAEM model, energy consumption and CO[^2]: emissions can be calcu- lated for each transport sub-category. -``` The final energy demand (ED) of the passenger and freight transport modes is -``` calculated for every world region and all powertrains in 5-year steps from 2015 to - 2050 in the following way: ``` @@ -7754,58 +5445,60 @@ mi ``` wr mi +()= ()× ()+ wr ``` -``` -wr -()= ()× ()+ -=== -``` -##### ∑∑∑ +##### ∑∑==∑= ``` 111 ``` ``` ,,, ttSECFtmi -``` -``` -wr -()× , () -``` +()× wr, () ``` with: -``` -- SECFmit - wr - ,(): specific freight mode energy consumption of powertrain _i_ and -mode _m_ in world region _wr_ at time step _t_ [MJ/tkm] -- SECPmit - wr - ,(): specific passenger mode energy consumption of powertrain _i_ and -mode _m_ in world region _wr_ at time step _t_ [MJ/pkm] -- TPFtmi - wr - ,(): freight transport performance of powertrain _i_ and mode _m_ in world -region _wr_ at time step _t_ [tkm/a] -- TPPtmi - wr - ,(): passenger transport performance of powertrain _i_ and mode _m_ in -world region _wr_ at time step _t_ [pkm/a] -- TTED(t): total transport (final) energy demand at time step _t_ [PJ/year] + +– SECFmi t ``` -The estimated plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and fuel- +wr +, (): specific freight mode energy consumption of powertrain i and +mode m in world region wr at time step t [MJ/tkm] ``` +– SECPmi t + +``` +wr +, (): specific passenger mode energy consumption of powertrain i and +mode m in world region wr at time step t [MJ/pkm] +``` +– TPFtmi + +``` +wr +, (): freight transport performance of powertrain i and mode m in world +region wr at time step t [tkm/a] +``` +– TPPtmi + +``` +wr +, (): passenger transport performance of powertrain i and mode m in +world region wr at time step t [pkm/a] +``` +– TTED(t): total transport (final) energy demand at time step t [PJ/year] + +The estimated plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and fuel- + cell-electric vehicles stocks are considered mode by mode, using their respective battery capacities, vehicle-specific life expectancies, total battery capacity by mode, -world region, and year, to estimate the total transport battery demand (Chap. 11). +world region, and year, to estimate the total transport battery demand (Chap. [^11]:). ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 39 ``` @@ -7819,100 +5512,61 @@ they use a backcasting process to deliver potential transformation pathways for energy system. Technical bottom-up scenarios are developed to meet the climate -targets in terms of cumulative CO 2 emissions and are then compared with a refer- - +targets in terms of cumulative CO[^2]: emissions and are then compared with a refer- ence case. The scenarios are based on detailed input data sets that consider defined targets, renewable and fossil fuel energy potentials, and specific parameters for - power, heat, and fuel generation in the energy systems. The scenarios are repre- - sented in the Energy System model (EM) developed by the DLR, which is imple- - -mented in the energy simulation platform Mesap/PlaNet (Seven2one 2012 ; - -Schlenzig 1998 ). Mesap/PlaNet is an accounting framework that allows the calcula- - +mented in the energy simulation platform Mesap/PlaNet (Seven2one [^2012]:; +Schlenzig [^1998]:). Mesap/PlaNet is an accounting framework that allows the calcula- tion of detailed and complete energy system balances, from demand to energy sup- - ply, in 5-year steps up to 2050. The model consists of two independent modules: -- a flow calculation module, which balances energy supply and demand annually, - -``` +• a flow calculation module, which balances energy supply and demand annually, and -``` -- a cost calculation module for the calculation of the corresponding investment, - -``` +• a cost calculation module for the calculation of the corresponding investment, generation, and fuel costs. -``` -``` + The strength of the model framework is in its flexible and transparent modelling -``` of different normative paths. The approach requires exogenously defined expansion - rates and market shares. It explicitly renounces economic optimization because of - the uncertainty of long-term cost assumptions. Therefore, scenario development - using this modelling approach is mainly based on background knowledge and - derived narratives, and the experience and knowledge of the scenario developer is - essential to the success of the scenario-building process. The model acts as a frame- - work for integrating a wide variety of aspects of the transformation of energy sys- - tems, and therefore differs fundamentally from optimization models. The - standardized cost calculation for the power sector is used for the ex-post evaluation - of the scenarios. The modelling framework combines a database with a graphical - programming interface. The database allows the management of both the input - parameters and the simulation output for the different scenarios calculated. The - graphical interface allows the definition of the structure of the modelled system and - the quantitative interdependences between the individual structural elements at dif- - ferent structural depths. - -``` The scope of the scenario model allows the increasing electrification processes -``` in the heating and transport sectors to be considered, such as electric vehicles, elec- - tric boilers, heat pumps, and hydrogen use. Co-generation in different sectors is also - explicitly represented in the model. The EM is implemented in this framework and - Figure 3.6 gives an overview of its structure. - -``` Details of the structure and relevant model equations were also recently described -``` -by Simon et  al. ( 2018 ). The model calculates the energy flows of a system on an - -3 Methodology +by Simon et  al. ([^2018]:). The model calculates the energy flows of a system on an +[^3]: Methodology 40 annual basis. These flows connect a set of technologies in each sector and for all - relevant energy carriers, using linear equations. The equation system is solved - sequentially and the model thus balances demand and supply. This approach is - applied over the scenario period in 5-year steps until 2050. Ultimately, the overall - final energy is calculated as described in the following equations: ``` -FDssfe tUED tMSt t +FDss tUED tMSt t +``` +``` +fe et ``` ``` @@ -7922,22 +5576,17 @@ ss ss et fe ``` -``` -et -``` -##### ()=∑ ()⋅ ()⋅η () +##### ()= ∑ ()⋅ ()⋅ηet () ``` -FDfe tFDt -ss -``` -``` -ss -``` -``` +FD tFDt fe +ss ``` -##### ()=∑ () +``` +ss +``` +##### ()= ∑ fe () ``` TFDt FD tFDt UEDtMS @@ -7957,38 +5606,36 @@ ss fe et ``` ss ss ``` -``` -et -``` -##### ()=∑∑()= ∑ ()=∑∑∑ ()⋅ tttfe +##### ()= ∑∑()= ∑ ()= ∑∑∑ ()⋅ et tttfe ``` -et -()⋅η () -``` +()⋅ηet () ``` with: -``` -- FDss,fe(t): demand of (final) energy carrier _fe_ in sub-sector _ss_^1 at time step _t_ [PJ/ -``` +• FDss, +fe(t): demand of (final) energy carrier fe in sub-sector ss1 at time step t [PJ/ year] -``` -- FDss,fe(t): total demand of (final) energy carrier _fe_ at time step _t_ [PJ/year] -- TFD(t): total final energy demand at time step _t_ [PJ/year] +• FDss, +fe(t): total demand of (final) energy carrier fe at time step t [PJ/year] +• TFD(t): total final energy demand at time step t [PJ/year] -(^1) The sub-sectors include ‘heat’ and ‘non-heat electrical appliances’ in the sectors ‘Industry’ and +[^1]:The sub-sectors include ‘heat’ and ‘non-heat electrical appliances’ in the sectors ‘Industry’ and ‘Residential and other’, aviation, road transport, navigation, rail transport, non-energy consump- tion, the conversion sector, and storage and transmission losses for power and district heat. Conversion losses are taken into account in the calculation of the primary energy demand. -**Input Energy System Model Results -Sectors: Final energy -demand** -- transport(seeTM) -- industry -- residential& service - etc. +``` +Input Energy System Model Results +``` +``` +Sectors: Final energy +demand +``` +•transport(seeTM) +•industry +•residential& service +etc. ``` power demand @@ -7996,37 +5643,37 @@ power demand ``` Heatingtechnologies: ``` -- directheating: fossil - burner, biomass burner, - heat pump, solar - collectors, electric heat -- district heating: CHP & - heat plants +•directheating: fossil +burner, biomass burner, +heat pump, solar +collectors, electric heat +•district heating: CHP & +heat plants ``` Power sector: ``` -- power plants: fossil, - nuclear, renewable -- CHP plants: fossil, fuel cell -- biomass, geothermal, +•power plants: fossil, +nuclear, renewable +•CHP plants: fossil, fuel cell +•biomass, geothermal, ``` Primary energy supply: ``` -- fossil: coal, gas, oil -- nuclear -- renewable:hydro, - wind, solar, - biomass, - geothermal, wave +•fossil: coal, gas, oil +•nuclear +•renewable:hydro, +wind, solar, +biomass, +geothermal, wave ``` heatdemand ``` ``` -CO 2 -emissions +CO2-emissions ``` ``` Drivers: @@ -8045,9 +5692,9 @@ LCOE ``` Fuel production: ``` -- H 2 -production -- biofuels -- refineriesetc. +•H2-production +•biofuels +•refineriesetc. ``` fuel @@ -8070,38 +5717,28 @@ intensities ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 41 ``` -- UEDss(t): useful energy demand / transport services in sub-sector _ss_ at time step - -``` +• UEDss(t): useful energy demand / transport services in sub-sector ss at time step t [PJ/year] -``` -- MSsset(t): market share of end-sector technology _et_ in sub-sector _ss_ - -``` +• MSss +et(t): market share of end-sector technology et in sub-sector ss [dimensionless] -``` -- ηfeet(t): efficiency of end-sector technology _et_ using energy carrier _fe_^2 at time step - -``` +• ηfe +et(t): efficiency of end-sector technology et using energy carrier fe2 at time step t [dimensionless] -``` -- _t_ : time step +• t: time step + +The indices denote: ``` -The indices denote: -``` -``` -ss : sub-sector -fe : (final) energy carrier -et : end-sector technology -``` +ss: sub-sector +fe: (final) energy carrier +et: end-sector technology ``` The primary energy demand (without exports) is calculated as follows: -``` + ``` PD tFDtMS tt pe @@ -8115,74 +5752,55 @@ fe ct fe ``` -``` -ct -``` -##### ()=∑∑ ()⋅ ()⋅η () +##### ()= ∑∑ ()⋅ ()⋅ηct () ``` TPDt PD t pe ``` -``` -pe -``` -##### ()=∑ () +##### ()= ∑ pe () -``` with -``` -- PDpe(t): total demand of (primary) energy carrier _pe_ at time step _t_ [PJ/year] -- TPD(t): total primary energy demand at time step _t_ [PJ/year] -- MSfect(t): market share of conversion technology _ct_ in the generation of final -``` +• PDpe(t): total demand of (primary) energy carrier pe at time step t [PJ/year] +• TPD(t): total primary energy demand at time step t [PJ/year] +• MSfe +ct(t): market share of conversion technology ct in the generation of final energy carrier fe [dimensionless] -``` -- ηfect(t): efficiency of conversion technology^3 _ct_ using the final energy carrier _fe_ at - -``` +• ηfe +ct(t): efficiency of conversion technology3 ct using the final energy carrier fe at time step t [dimensionless] -``` -``` + The indices denote: -``` -- _pe_ : (primary) energy carrier -- _ct_ : conversion sector technology^4 -``` +• pe: (primary) energy carrier +• ct: conversion sector technology[^4] + The drivers of energy consumption include forecasts of population growth, gross -``` domestic product (GDP), and energy intensities. Specific energy intensities are - assumed for: -- electricity and heat consumption per person and per GDP; -- the ratio of industrial heat demand to GDP; +• electricity and heat consumption per person and per GDP; +• the ratio of industrial heat demand to GDP; -(^2) Note that some technologies (e.g., electric heat pumps) require two energy carriers as inputs +[^2]:Note that some technologies (e.g., electric heat pumps) require two energy carriers as inputs (electricity and environmental heat), with a specific efficiency for each energy carrier. -(^3) Some conversion technologies produce more than one output, e.g. CHP plants, leading to con- +[^3]:Some conversion technologies produce more than one output, e.g. CHP plants, leading to con- straints on efficiencies or market shares. -(^4) Power and district heat generation, biofuel, synfuel, and H 2 generation, and refineries. -3 Methodology +[^4]:Power and district heat generation, biofuel, synfuel, and H[^2]: generation, and refineries. +[^3]: Methodology 42 -- demand for energy services, such as useful heat; -- different transport modes based on the Transport Model (see Sect. 3.4). +• demand for energy services, such as useful heat; +• different transport modes based on the Transport Model (see Sect. 3.4). -``` The model consists of a broad technology database across the heat, fuel, and -``` power sectors, including sector coupling via combined heat and power (CHP), - power-to-heat, and power-to-fuels technologies, and electric mobility. - -``` For both heat and electricity production, the model distinguishes between differ- -``` + ent technologies, characterized by their primary energy sources, efficiency, and costs. Examples include biomass or gas burners, heat pumps, solar thermal and @@ -8201,27 +5819,24 @@ costs, and societal, structural, and economic barriers. The model eventually cal lates the annual energy flows for a set of energy carriers. -``` The main inputs of the Energy System Model are: -``` -- IEA World Energy Balances 2017 (IEA 2016a) for the calibration of the model -``` +• IEA World Energy Balances 2017 (IEA 2016a) for the calibration of the model + for each world region in the years 2005–2015; -``` -- IEA World Energy Outlook 2016/2017 (IEA 2016b, 2017a) for the parameteriza- -``` +• IEA World Energy Outlook 2016/2017 (IEA 2016b, 2017a) for the parameteriza- + tion of the model for the reference case (5.0 °C Scenario); -``` -- various studies and statistics used for the assumption of further specific values, + +• various studies and statistics used for the assumption of further specific values, ``` such as the power-to-heat ratios of co-generation plants, coefficients of perfor- mance of heat pumps, and the efficiency of hydrogen electrolysers and synthetic fuel production plants; ``` -- narratives and assumptions regarding the further development of demand and +• narratives and assumptions regarding the further development of demand and ``` supply technologies in line with the climate targets and by taking into account @@ -8229,32 +5844,29 @@ RES potentials and costs, stable market developments, and the constraints imposed by production capacities and regional implementation. These assump- tions and narratives are described in detail in Chap. 5, Sect. 4. ``` -``` The main outputs of the model are: -``` -- the final and primary energy demands, broken down by fuel, technology, and + +• the final and primary energy demands, broken down by fuel, technology, and ``` energy sectors, as defined by the International Energy Agency (IEA)—industry, power generation, transport, and other (buildings, forestry, and fisheries); ``` -- the results broken down by the three main types of energy demand—electricity, +• the results broken down by the three main types of energy demand—electricity, ``` heating, and mobility (transport); specifically, the energy required, technology deployment, and financial investment for each of these energy demand types; ``` -- total energy budget, which is the total cost of energy for the whole power +• total energy budget, which is the total cost of energy for the whole power -``` system; -``` -- energy-related CO 2 emissions over the projected period. + +• energy-related CO2 emissions over the projected period. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 43 ``` @@ -8283,12 +5895,10 @@ and consists of two modules: 1. a flow calculation module, which balances the energy supply and demand; and 2. a cost calculation module, which calculates the corresponding generation and -``` fuel costs. -``` -``` + The [R]E 24/7 model examines the influence of the dispatch order of power- -``` + generation technologies, the storage technologies, and the interconnection of up to eight regions. It calculates the impact of these variables on the overall system costs. @@ -8301,9 +5911,9 @@ use. The factors and applications used depend on the GDP and population (see Sec 3.2). -**_3.5.1 [R]E 24/7—Model Structure_** +**3.5.1 [R]E 24/7—Model Structure** -Teske ( 2015 ) has developed a three-level grid model called ‘[R]E 24/7’ as a grid +Teske ([^2015]:) has developed a three-level grid model called ‘[R]E 24/7’ as a grid analysis tool that differentiates between four voltage levels. For this analysis, the @@ -8331,18 +5941,17 @@ The data are partly with the GIS tool (see Sect. 3.2) and partly from other info tion resources, such as publicly available databases of populations (UN PD DB -2018 ), GDP (CIA 2018 ; ST 7- 2018 ), and energy efficiency indicators (WEC 2018 ), - -3 Methodology +[^2018]:), GDP (CIA [^2018]:; ST 7-[^2018]:), and energy efficiency indicators (WEC [^2018]:), +[^3]: Methodology 44 and statistical data on renewable power generation from IRENA (REN21-GSR -2018 ) and the World Resources Institute (WRI 2018 ). +[^2018]:) and the World Resources Institute (WRI [^2018]:). -**_3.5.2 Development and Calculation of Load Curves_** +**3.5.2 Development and Calculation of Load Curves** Energy demand projections and the calculation of load curves are important factors @@ -8355,24 +5964,17 @@ generation. The [R]E 24/7 model calculates the development of the future power demand and the resulting possible load curves, because: (a) Actual demand curves are not available for all countries and/or regions and are - -``` sometimes classified information. -``` + (b) Future load curves with high penetration of storage, electric heating systems -``` and electric mobility will have a very different shape than current load curves. -``` (c) For developing countries with low access to energy rates or little access to suf- - -``` ficient data, the curves must be calculated based on a set of assumptions because actual curves are neither available nor representative of future load curves. -``` -``` + The model generates load curves and the resulting annual power demands for -``` + three different consumer groups/sectors: 1. Calculation of each cluster @@ -8432,7 +6034,7 @@ Distributionof HouseholdDemand ``` ``` -Interco nnection +Interconnection ``` ``` Storage @@ -8517,29 +6119,25 @@ CurveProjection ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 45 ``` -- households; -- industry and business; and -- transport (public and individual electric mobility). +• households; +• industry and business; and +• transport (public and individual electric mobility). -``` Although each sector has its specific consumer groups and applications, the same -``` + set of parameters is used to calculate load curves: -- electrical applications in use; -- demand pattern (24 h); -- efficiency progress (base year 2015) for 2020 until 2050, and individual effi- +• electrical applications in use; +• demand pattern (24 h); +• efficiency progress (base year 2015) for 2020 until 2050, and individual effi- -``` ciency input for each year. -``` -``` + The calculations involve detailed bottom-up projections of the increased use of -``` + electricity for heating in buildings, for industrial process heat, for electric mobility, and for the production of synthetic fuels and hydrogen. They also include increased @@ -8550,9 +6148,8 @@ patterns, and the household types. This allows detailed demand projections to be made. -``` Infrastructure needs, such as power grids combined with storage facilities, -``` + require in-depth knowledge of local loads and generation capacities. In this project, the annual electricity demand for each of the 10 world regions was calculated with @@ -8561,126 +6158,98 @@ the long-term EM. The [R]E 24/7 model breaks each region into up to eight sub- regions (or clusters) to calculate hourly load and generation curves. -**_3.5.3 Load Curve Calculation for Households_** +**3.5.3 Load Curve Calculation for Households** The model differentiates nine household groups, with various degrees of electrifica- tion and equipment: -- Rural—phase 1: Minimal electrification stage -- Rural—phase 2: White goods are introduced and increase the overall demand -- Rural—phase 3: Fully equipped western-standard household with electrical +• Rural—phase 1: Minimal electrification stage +• Rural—phase 2: White goods are introduced and increase the overall demand +• Rural—phase 3: Fully equipped western-standard household with electrical -``` cooking and air conditioning and electric vehicle(s) -``` -- Urban single: Single-person household with minimal equipment -- Urban shared flat: 3–5 persons share one apartment; fully equipped western -``` +• Urban single: Single-person household with minimal equipment +• Urban shared flat: 3–5 persons share one apartment; fully equipped western + household, but without electric vehicles -``` -- Urban—Family 1: 2 adults and 2–3 children; middle income, middle western -``` +• Urban—Family 1: 2 adults and 2–3 children; middle income, middle western + standard -``` -- Urban—Family 2: 2 adults and > 3 children and/or higher income, full western -``` +• Urban—Family 2: 2 adults and > 3 children and/or higher income, full western + standard -``` -- Suburbia 1: average family, middle income, full equipment, high transport -``` +• Suburbia 1: average family, middle income, full equipment, high transport + demand due to extensive commuting -``` -- Suburbia 2: High-income household, fully equipped, extremely high transport -``` +• Suburbia 2: High-income household, fully equipped, extremely high transport + demand due to high-end vehicles and extensive commuting -``` -3 Methodology +[^3]: Methodology 46 -``` The following electrical equipment and applications can be selected: -``` -- Lighting: 4 different light bulb types (LED, three efficiency classes of CFLs), -- Cooking: 10 different cooking stoves (2+4 burners, electricity, gas, firewood) -- Entertainment: 3 different efficiency levels of computers, TV, and radio types -- White goods: 2 different efficiency levels each for washing machine, dryer, -``` +• Lighting: 4 different light bulb types (LED, three efficiency classes of CFLs), +• Cooking: 10 different cooking stoves (2+4 burners, electricity, gas, firewood) +• Entertainment: 3 different efficiency levels of computers, TV, and radio types +• White goods: 2 different efficiency levels each for washing machine, dryer, + fridge, freezer -``` -- Climatization: 2 different efficiency levels each for fan, air-conditioning -- Water heating: A selection of direct electric, heat-pump, and solar heating -``` +• Climatization: 2 different efficiency levels each for fan, air-conditioning +• Water heating: A selection of direct electric, heat-pump, and solar heating + systems -``` -**_3.5.4 Load Curve Calculation for Business and Industry_** + +**3.5.4 Load Curve Calculation for Business and Industry** The industrial sector is clustered into eight groups based on widely used statistical categories: -- Agriculture -- Manufacturing -- Mining -- Iron and steel -- Cement industry -- Construction industry -- Chemical industry -- Service and trade +• Agriculture +• Manufacturing +• Mining +• Iron and steel +• Cement industry +• Construction industry +• Chemical industry +• Service and trade -``` Each sector has a definite energy intensity in energy per dollar GDP (MJ/$GDP), -``` which is been converted to electrical units (kW/$GDP) based on an estimated fuel - efficiency factor, electricity shares, and operational hours per year. The calculated - electricity intensity per dollar GDP conversion can only show the required con- - nected load and the specific consumption of an industrial sector to a first approxima- - tion because there is a variety of uncertainty factors, such as: (a) significant regional differences; - (b) significant demand differences within one industry sector, such as _manufactur-_ - -``` -ing or chemical industry ; -``` +_ing_ or _chemical industry_; (c) lack of standardized data on industry energy demands, especially for the elec- - -``` tricity sector. -``` -``` + Despite the high degree of uncertainty, we decided to apply this methodology -``` because after an initial calibration, the current statistically recorded industrial elec- - tricity consumption in some well-documented countries (e.g., USA) and regions - (e.g., Europe) can be recalculated with a tolerance of ± 10%. However, this method- - ology requires further research. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 47 ``` -**_3.5.5 Load Distribution by Cluster_** +**3.5.5 Load Distribution by Cluster** The spatial concept of the [R]E 24/7 is shown in Fig. 3.8. The model calculates the @@ -8720,31 +6289,31 @@ The distribution of the regional load, calculated in Sects. 3.3 and 3.4, is con- nected to the projected GDP, population, and power plant capacities for each cluster. ``` -C 1 C 5 +C1 C5 LocalGeneration LocalGeneration Interconnection- Interconnection- -CapacityC 1 CapacityC 5 +CapacityC1 CapacityC5 ``` ``` -C 2 C 6 +C2 C6 LocalGeneration LocalGeneration Interconnection- Interconnection- -CapacityC 2 CapacityC 6 +CapacityC2 CapacityC6 ``` ``` -C 3 C 7 +C3 C7 LocalGeneration LocalGeneration Interconnection- Interconnection- -CapacityC 3 CapacityC 7 +CapacityC3 CapacityC7 ``` ``` -C 4 C 8 +C4 C8 LocalGeneration LocalGeneration Interconnection- Interconnection- -CapacityC 4 CapacityC 8 +CapacityC4 CapacityC8 ``` ``` -Data:USAStatistics Data:MexicoStatistics +Data:USAStatistics Data:Mexico Statistics ``` ``` INTERCONNECTION OF CLUSTERS @@ -8761,8 +6330,8 @@ Populaon Populaon GDPGDP ``` ``` -C 5 C 8 -Cluster=XUSStates Cluster=Country +C5 C8 +Cluster= X US States Cluster= Country ``` ``` Data:USAStatistics Data:CANADAStatistics @@ -8776,8 +6345,8 @@ Populaon Populaon GDPGDP ``` ``` -C 1 C 2 -Cluster=USState Cluster= 4 CanadianStates +C[^1] C[^2] +Cluster=US State Cluster=4 Canadian States ``` 10. Oceania Pacific 8. IndiaC7. South East USA @@ -8790,14 +6359,13 @@ Cluster=USState Cluster= 4 CanadianStates 3. Europe C2. West Canada ``` -Regions Sub-Regions(Cluster) +Regions Sub-Regions (Cluster) ``` -1. OECD North America e.g.NorthAmerica +1. OECD North America e.g. North America **Fig. 3.8** Spatial concept of the [R]E 24/7 model -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 48 @@ -8823,7 +6391,7 @@ load curve over one entire year (8760  h). Thus, one region (e.g., OCED North America) has eight different load curves. -**_3.5.6 The [R]E 24/7 Dispatch Module_** +**3.5.6 The [R]E 24/7 Dispatch Module** Although the dispatch module for the [R]E 24/7 energy access model has been @@ -8831,11 +6399,11 @@ developed specifically for this study, integral parts have been taken from a mod developed to analyse the generation and storage needs for a micro grid on Kangaroo -Island (Dunstan and Fattal 2016 ), the Australian Storage Requirements (Rutovitz +Island (Dunstan and Fattal [^2016]:), the Australian Storage Requirements (Rutovitz -and James 2017 ), and a 100% Renewable Energy Analysis for Tanzania (Teske and +and James [^2017]:), and a 100% Renewable Energy Analysis for Tanzania (Teske and -Morris 2017 ). The key objective of this modelling is to calculate the theoretical +Morris [^2017]:). The key objective of this modelling is to calculate the theoretical generation and storage requirements for energy adequacy in each cluster and for the @@ -8871,83 +6439,54 @@ Cap Interconnection Capacity Interconnection [MW] ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 49 ``` tion at hourly resolution. The calculation of one region with eight sub-regions will - require eight calculation intervals. Table 3.4 shows the four different supply tech- - nology groups: variable renewables, dispatch power plants, storage technologies, - and interconnections. The model allows the order in which the technology groups - will be utilized to be changed to satisfy the demand. Storage and interconnection - cannot be selected as the first supply technology. Within each technology group, the - dispatch order can be changed. Tables 3.5, 3.6, and 3.7 provide an overview of all - the available technologies and examples of different dispatch scenarios. While CSP - plants with storage are dispatchable to some extent—depending on the storage size - and the available solar radiation—they are part of the variable renewable group in - the [R]E 24/7 model. Although the model allows the dispatch order to change, the - 100% renewable energy analysis always follows the same dispatch logic. The model - identifies excess renewable production, which is defined as potential wind and solar - PV generation greater than the actual hourly demand in MW during a specific hour. - To avoid curtailment, the surplus renewable electricity should be stored with some - form of electric storage technology or exported to a different cluster. Within the - model, the excess renewable production accumulates through the dispatch order. If - storage is present, it will charge the storage within the limits of the input capacity. - If no storage is present, this potential excess renewable production is reported as - ‘potential curtailment’ (pre-storage). **Limitations:** It is important to note that the calculation of possible interconnection - capacities for transmission grids between sub-regions does not replace technical - grid simulation. Grid services, such as inductive power supply, frequency control, - and stability, should be analysed, although this is beyond the scope of this analysis. - The results of [R]E 24/7 provide a first rough estimate of whether the increased use - of storage or increased interconnection capacities or a mix of both will reduce sys- - tems costs. **Table 3.3** Output parameters for the dispatch model - -``` Output parameter L Initial Initial Load (Cluster + Interconnection) [MW] -L Post_Var.RE Load after Variable Renewable Supply [MW] +L Post_Var.RE Load after _Variable Renewable_ Supply [MW] S EXECC_VAR.RE Access supply Renewables [MW] -L Post_Storage Load after Storage Supply [MW] +L Post_Storage Load after _Storage_ Supply [MW] S Storage Storage Requirement/Curtailment [MW] CapFact Actual_Storage Utilization Factor Storage [h/year] -L Post_Dispatch Load after Dispatch Power Plant Supply [MW] +L Post_Dispatch Load after _Dispatch Power Plant_ Supply [MW] S Dispatch Dispatch Requirement [MW] -CapFact Actual_Dispatch Utilization Factor Dispatch Power Plants [h/year] -L Post_Interconnection Load after Interconnection Supply [MW] +CapFact Actual_Dispatch Utilization Factor _Dispatch Power Plants_ [h/year] +L Post_Interconnection Load after _Interconnection_ Supply [MW] S Interconnection Interconnection Requirement [MW] -CapFact Actual_Interconnection: Utilization Factor Interconnection [h/year] -``` -3 Methodology +CapFact Actual_Interconnection: Utilization Factor _Interconnection_ [h/year] +[^3]: Methodology 50 @@ -8955,16 +6494,16 @@ CapFact Actual_Interconnection: Utilization Factor Interconnection [h/year] INPUT OUTPUT ``` ``` -Equation 1 +Equation1 ``` ``` -Equation 2 +Equation2 ``` ``` -Equation 3 +Equation3 ``` ``` -Equation 4 +Equation4 ``` ``` Result @@ -9010,7 +6549,7 @@ CapFactActual [h/yr] ``` LPost_Storage [MW/h] Cap Dispatch [MW] -CapFact Max_DP[h/yr] +CapFact Max_DP [h/yr] ``` ``` Dispatch @@ -9024,6 +6563,8 @@ CapFactActual_DP[h/yr] ``` LPost_Dispatch [MW/h] Cap Intercon [MW] +``` +``` Inter- connecon ``` @@ -9031,19 +6572,19 @@ connecon LPost_IN [MW/h] ``` ``` -CapFactActual_IN[h/yr] +CapFactActual_IN [h/yr] ``` ``` -ion 1 +ion1 ``` ``` -ion 2 +ion2 ``` ``` -ion 3 +ion3 ``` ``` -ion 4 +ion4 ``` ``` LInial [MW/h] @@ -9081,24 +6622,17 @@ SIntercon [MW/h] ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 51 ``` -**_3.5.7 Meteorological Data_** +**3.5.7 Meteorological Data** Variable power-generation technologies are dependent on the local solar radiation - and wind regimes. Therefore, all installed capacities of this technology group are - connected to cluster-specific time series. The data were derived from the database - -_Renewable Ninja_ (RE-N DB 2018 ), which allows the simulation of the hourly - +_Renewable Ninja_ (RE-N DB [^2018]:), which allows the simulation of the hourly power output from wind and solar power plants at specific geographic positions - throughout the world. Weather data, such as temperature, precipitation, and snow- - fall, for the year 2014 are also available. **Table 3.4** Technology @@ -9145,17 +6679,15 @@ Coal Brown Coal Brown coal Oil Nuclear Nuclear ``` -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 52 -``` To utilize climatization technologies for buildings (air-conditioning, electric -``` + heating), the demand curves for households and services are connected to the -cluster- specific temperature time series. The demand for lighting is connected to the +cluster-specific temperature time series. The demand for lighting is connected to the solar time series to accommodate the variability in lighting demand across the year, @@ -9183,9 +6715,8 @@ uses (as described in the mapping methodology). A roof-top solar indicative site was chosen in the demographic centre of the region, usually the capital city. -``` The onshore wind indicative site selected for each region was situated in an area -``` + of non-competing land use with the highest average wind speed and close to the transmission network or regional centre or city. The offshore wind indicative site @@ -9198,9 +6729,8 @@ acceptable wind area within a region was available, in which case the wind poten was set to zero. -``` Once the indicative sites were chosen, the hourly output values for typical solar -``` + arrays and wind farms were selected using the database of Stefan Pfenninger at ETH Zurich and Iain Stafell (Renewables.ninja; see above). The model methodol- @@ -9209,9 +6739,9 @@ ogy used by the Renewables.ninja database is described by Pfenninger and Staffel (2016a, b), and is based on weather data from global reanalysis models and satellite -observations (Rienecker and Suarez 2011 ; Müller and Pfeifroth, 2015 ; SARAH +observations (Rienecker and Suarez [^2011]:; Müller and Pfeifroth, [^2015]:; SARAH -2018 ). It was assumed that the utility solar sites were optimized, and as such, a tilt +[^2018]:). It was assumed that the utility solar sites were optimized, and as such, a tilt angle was selected within a couple of degrees of the latitude of the indicative site. @@ -9233,19 +6763,13 @@ H2 H2 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 53 ``` -``` The wind outputs for both onshore and offshore wind were calculated at an 80 m -``` hub height because this reflects the wind data sets used in the mapping exercise. - Although onshore wind and offshore wind are likely be higher than this, 80 m was - considered a reasonable approximation and made our model consistent with the - mapping-based predictions. A turbine model of Vestas V90 2000 was used. **Limitations:** The solar and wind resources can differ within one cluster. In some @@ -9266,77 +6790,49 @@ with a large east–west spread requires high-resolution modelling, which is pos with the [R]E 24/7 model but beyond the scope of this research project. -**_3.5.8 Interconnection Capacities_** +**3.5.8 Interconnection Capacities** The interconnection capacities are set as a function of the total generation capacity - within a cluster and a manually set percentage. Defining the relevant percentage of - a country’s overall (peak) capacity and/or total generation capacity is based on - European energy policy. The European Union (EU) proposed in 2002 that all EU - member states must establish a transmission capacity of at least 10% of the peak - -demand (in megawatts) by 2005 (EMP-BARCELONA 2002 ). The EU developed - +demand (in megawatts) by 2005 (EMP-BARCELONA [^2002]:). The EU developed this regulation further, improved the calculation method, and increased the target to - -15% (EU-EG 2017 ), whereas the [R]E 24/7 model implements a simplified approach - +15% (EU-EG [^2017]:), whereas the [R]E 24/7 model implements a simplified approach by taking a percentage of the overall installed capacity. Clusters that are not con- - nected at all to the real energy market (e.g., South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New - Zealand in the OECD Pacific region) are assigned 0% interconnection capacity. - Responsibly well-connected clusters (such as the south-western USA) are set to - 15%, and highly interconnected countries (such as Denmark) are assigned up to - 40%. - -``` Several simplifications have been made to the [R]E 24/7 model for ease of com- -``` putation and to accommodate the paucity of data and uncertainty about the future - when designing the interconnector algorithms: -- Interconnections between the project-defined regions are the only ones consid- - -``` -ered, so all intra-regional interconnections or line constraints are excluded (‘ cop- -per plate ’); -``` -- Optimal load flow is neglected because policy and price signals are considered to - -``` +– Interconnections between the project-defined regions are the only ones consid- +ered, so all intra-regional interconnections or line constraints are excluded (‘cop- +per plate’); +– Optimal load flow is neglected because policy and price signals are considered to be the factors dominating the international and inter-regional load flow; -``` -- Non-adjacent inter-regional interconnections are neglected for computational - -``` +– Non-adjacent inter-regional interconnections are neglected for computational reasons, e.g., one region cannot buy power from a region with which it does not share a border. -``` -3 Methodology +[^3]: Methodology 54 -``` The algorithm devised for the function of the interconnectors is based on three -``` + key pieces of information for each region in a cluster: -- Excess generation capacity; -- Unmet load; -- Interconnection capacity with each adjacent region, both in and out. +– Excess generation capacity; +– Unmet load; +– Interconnection capacity with each adjacent region, both in and out. -``` The excess generation capacity and unmet load were calculated by running the -``` + model without the interconnectors to determine the excess or shortfall in generation when the load within the region is met. These excesses and shortfalls were calcu- @@ -9347,9 +6843,8 @@ consume power, for example, after the variable renewables and dispatchable gen- erators and before the storage elements. -``` The interconnection capacity between adjacent regions was defined based on a -``` + percentage of the maximum regional load. The capacity was defined in a matrix, both to and from every region to every other region. For non-adjacent regions, the @@ -9360,9 +6855,8 @@ given, so that if the region had an unmet load, it would be served sequentially the excess generation of the loads in their defined order. -``` For every hour and for every region in each cluster, the possible interconnection -``` + inflow or outflow for load balancing was calculated. Each region was considered in turn, and the algorithm attempted to meet the unmet load with excess generation by @@ -9373,9 +6867,8 @@ capacities. Each region’s internal load was met first, before its generation r were considered for other interconnected regions. -``` Once the total inflow and outflow of the interconnectors were calculated, the -``` + hourly values were fed into the model once more at the position in the cascade to which they were assigned, and the model was run again to give the total system @@ -9402,16 +6895,15 @@ clean energy. National statistical agencies classify and collect data on occupat within the fossil fuel sectors but not within the renewable energy sectors (ABS -2017 ). ISF has developed a model to estimate the volume of renewable energy jobs +[^2017]:). ISF has developed a model to estimate the volume of renewable energy jobs under different 100% global renewable energy scenarios (Rutovitz and Dominish -2015 ), and an increasing body of research is estimating the jobs created by +[^2015]:), and an increasing body of research is estimating the jobs created by ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 55 ``` @@ -9421,7 +6913,7 @@ ology. Based on this, UTS/ISF has developed this methodology further, as present in Sect. 3.2. -**_3.6.1 Quantitative Employment Calculation_** +**3.6.1 Quantitative Employment Calculation** In 2015, the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at the University of Technology @@ -9429,7 +6921,7 @@ Sydney (UTS) developed a quantitative employment model that calculates employ- ment development in the electricity, heating, and fuel production sectors for the -analysis of future energy pathways (Rutovitz and Dominish 2015 ). Figure 3.10 pro- +analysis of future energy pathways (Rutovitz and Dominish [^2015]:). Figure 3.10 pro- vides a simplified overview of how the calculations are performed, based on @@ -9442,51 +6934,45 @@ for each calculated scenario, e.g., the 5.0 °C (Sect. 5.1.1) and 2.0 °C Scen ``` (Sect. 5.1.2), -- the electrical and heating capacity that will be installed each year for each +• the electrical and heating capacity that will be installed each year for each -``` technology; -``` -- the primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels in the electricity and -``` +• the primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels in the electricity and + heating sectors; -``` -- the amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear power, oil, and diesel. -``` +• the amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear power, oil, and diesel. + for each technology: -``` -- ‘employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit of capacity, separated into + +• ‘employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit of capacity, separated into ``` manufacturing, construction, operation, and maintenance, and per unit of pri- mary energy for fuel supply; ``` -- for the 2020, 2030, and 2050 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for each technology, +• for the 2020, 2030, and 2050 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for each technology, ``` which reduces the employment factors by a certain percentage per year. This reflects the fact that employment per unit decreases as technology efficiencies improve. ``` -``` for each region: -``` -- the percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuel production in each + +• the percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuel production in each ``` region, to calculate the proportions of jobs in manufacturing and fuel production that occur in the region; ``` -- the percentage of world trade in coal and gas fuels, and traded renewable compo- +• the percentage of world trade in coal and gas fuels, and traded renewable compo- -``` nents that originates in each region. -``` -``` + A ‘regional job multiplier’, which indicates how labour-intensive the economic -``` + activity is in that region compared with the OECD, is used to adjust the OECD employment factors when local data are not available. The figures for the increase @@ -9495,8 +6981,7 @@ in electrical capacity and energy use from each scenario are multiplied by the employment factors for each of the technologies, and then adjusted for regional -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 56 @@ -9504,9 +6989,8 @@ labour intensity and the proportion of fuel or manufacturing that occurs locally calculation is summarized in Fig. 3.10. -``` A range of data sources were used for the model inputs, including the International -``` + Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, International Labour @@ -9515,9 +6999,8 @@ Organization, World Bank, industry associations, national statistics, company reports, academic literature, and the ISF’s own research. -``` These calculations only take into account direct employment; for example, the -``` + construction team required to build a new wind farm. They do not include indirect employment; for example, the extra services provided in a town to accommodate @@ -9536,65 +7019,35 @@ under the 5.0 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios. ``` Manufacturing (for -local use) = -``` -``` -MW installed per -year in region x -``` -``` -Manufacturing -employment factor x -``` -``` -Regional job multiplier -for year x -``` -``` -%local +local use) = MW installed per +year in region x Manufacturing +employment factor x Regional job multiplier +for year x %local manufacturing ``` ``` Manufacturing -(for export) = -``` -``` -MW exported per -year x -``` -``` -Manufacturing -employment factor x -``` -``` -Regional job multiplier +(for export) = MW exported per +year x Manufacturing +employment factor x Regional job multiplier for year ``` ``` -Construction = MW installed peryear^ x Construction employment factor x Regional job for year multiplier +Construction = MW installed per +year x Construction +employment factor x Regional job multiplier +for year ``` ``` Operation and -Maintenance =Cumulative capacityx -``` -``` -O&M employment -factor x -``` -``` -Regional job multiplier +Maintenance =Cumulative capacityxO&M employment +factor x Regional job multiplier for year ``` ``` Fuel supply -(nuclear) = -``` -``` -Electricity -generation xFuel employment factor x -``` -``` -Regional job multiplier +(nuclear) = Electricity +generation xFuel employment factor x Regional job multiplier foryear ``` ``` @@ -9615,31 +7068,33 @@ Fuel employment factor coal) ``` ``` -x Regional job for year multiplier^ x % of local production +x Regional job multiplier +for year x % of local +production ``` ``` -Heat supply = MW installed peryear^ x Emheat ployment factor for x Regional job for year multiplier^ +Heat supply = MW installed per +year x Employment factor for +heat x Regional job multiplier +for year ``` ``` -Jobs in region = Manufacturing+Construction+Operation and maintenance (O&M) + Fuel + Heat +Jobs in region = Manufacturing+Construction+Operation and maintenance +(O&M) + Fuel + Heat ``` ``` Employment factors at 2020, -2030 or 2050 =2015 employment factor x Technology decline factor^ -``` -``` -[number of years after 2015] +2030or 2050 =2015 employment factor x Technology decline factor[number of years after 2015] ``` **Fig. 3.10** Quantitative employment calculation: methodological overview ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 57 ``` -**_3.6.2 Occupational Employment Modelling_** +**3.6.2 Occupational Employment Modelling** The quantitative employment model documented in Sect. 3.6.1 were further devel- @@ -9651,9 +7106,8 @@ modelling disaggregated occupational change, and this framework is described in this section. -``` Quantitative employment studies at the level of technology and project phases -``` + (manufacturing, construction, and O&M) are useful when providing estimates of aggregate job creation. However, more disaggregated, granular data on the locations @@ -9672,18 +7126,16 @@ an increase in the supply of labour will probably be required, and to areas wher effects of dislocation will be greatest. -``` Using a variety of data sources, ISF has developed a framework for classifying -``` + and measuring job changes at different levels of occupational disaggregation, to provide a richer picture of the composition of this employment change. The meth- odology and key figures are detailed below. -``` Three primary studies that classify and measure the occupational compositions -``` + of renewable energy industries have been conducted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Using surveys of the participants in around 45 industries @@ -9692,22 +7144,21 @@ across a range of developed and developing nations, IRENA has estimated the per- centages of person-days for the various occupations across the solar PV and onshore -and offshore wind farm supply chains (IRENA 2017 ). Figure 3.11 is an example (in +and offshore wind farm supply chains (IRENA [^2017]:). Figure 3.11 is an example (in this case, for solar PV manufacturing). -``` IRENA’s studies are the most detailed estimates available of the occupational -``` + compositions of the solar PV and onshore wind sectors. ISF has extended the -application of IRENA’s work. Chapter 10 provides more details about the methodol- +application of IRENA’s work. Chapter [^10]: provides more details about the methodol- ogy and the specific factors used in this analysis. **3.7 Material and Metal Resources Analysis (UTS-ISF)** -**_3.7.1 Methodology—Material and Metal Resources Analysis_** +**3.7.1 Methodology—Material and Metal Resources Analysis** The future demands for metals have been modelled to better understand the resource @@ -9717,46 +7168,30 @@ demands for metals have been modelled for the projection of 100% renewable energy and the full electrification of the transport system by 2050, as described in in -Chap. 6. - -3 Methodology +Chap. [^6]:. +[^3]: Methodology 58 -``` The predicted demand for the metals required to produce clean energy each year -``` is estimated based on the increase in capacity plus an additional amount required to - replace the capacity or vehicles that reach the ends of their lives in each year (based - on a lifetime distribution curve for the average lifetime). From this, the GW of - capacity or number of vehicles introduced in each year is estimated (also accounting - for the replacement stock for end-of-life technologies). - -``` -When assuming that the introduced amount of specific technologies in year t is lt , -``` -the accumulated stock amount in year _t_ (generation capacity or in-use stock) is _St_ , and +When assuming that the introduced amount of specific technologies in year _t_ is _lt_ , +the accumulated stock amount in year _t_ (generation capacity or in-use stock) is _St_, and the discarded amount in year _t_ is _Ot_ , can be expressed by: ``` -SStt =+− 1 IOtt − -(3.1) -``` -``` -Where Ot depends on the number of use years of each product. This use year +SStt=+−1 IOtt− (3.1) ``` +Where _Ot_ depends on the number of use years of each product. This use year varies from product to product, and even within the same product group introduced - into a society in the same year. The discarded year is not constant and has a lifetime - -distribution. Therefore, if the number of use years of the product is assumed as _a_ , - +distribution. Therefore, if the number of use years of the product is assumed as _a_, lifetime distribution can be defined as _g(a)_. Hence, is given by following: ``` @@ -9807,18 +7242,15 @@ Logistics 4% ``` **Fig. 3.11** Distribution of human resources required to manufacture the main components of a -50 MW solar photovoltaic power plant. (IRENA 2017 ) +50 MW solar photovoltaic power plant. (IRENA [^2017]:) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 59 ``` -``` -Where amax is the maximum value of the product life. Therefore ,It can be calcu- -``` +Where _amax_ is the maximum value of the product life. Therefore_,It_ can be calcu- lated with equation (3.3). ``` @@ -9839,21 +7271,15 @@ a max (3.3) ``` -``` In this book, the Weibull distribution is used to consider the life characteristics of -``` the products described above, with the key assumptions shown in Table 3.8. - -``` Based on the annual introduced amount of clean energy technologies given by -``` equation (3.3), the metal demand for technology _p_ in year _t_ is estimated as: ``` -Demandpt ,,=⋅ IMpt etal intensitypt , -(3.4) +Demandpt,,=⋅IMpt etal intensitypt, (3.4) ``` -Where _Metal intensity_ (^) _p,t_ is the amount of required metal in technology _p_ in year +Where _Metal intensity p,t_ is the amount of required metal in technology _p_ in year _t_. Because this value can change over time with technological developments, we assume that the various scenarios incorporating the material efficiency improvement. @@ -9865,8 +7291,10 @@ the future by increasing metal availability and reducing the environmental impac Therefore, we evaluated the effects of recycling by estimating the potential reduction in primary production entailed. When the recycling of end-of-life products is con- sidered, primary production is given by equation (3.5). -_Primaryp roductionpt_ ,,=− _Demandpt DiscardRpt_ ,⋅ _ecyclingratep_ -(3.5) + +``` +Primaryproductionpt,,=−Demandpt DiscardRpt, ⋅ ecyclingratep (3.5) +``` Where _Discardp,t_ is end-of-life technology in year , and is estimated from the Weibull distribution, and the _Recycling ratep_ indicates the proportion of metals recovered from end-of-life technology. Since this value can be increased by techno- @@ -9878,158 +7306,106 @@ els), rather than as an average across the use of the metal, as has been done in previous studies. This has been chosen as the most appropriate recycling rate to use because we assume that by using recycling rates specific to the technology, it is more likely to offset demand for new materials for that technology. + **Table 3.8** Key assumptions Technology Lifetime (years) Shape parameter -Solar PV 30 5.38 -Battery 8 3.5 -3 Methodology +Solar PV [^30]: 5.38 +Battery [^8]: 3.5 +[^3]: Methodology 60 -``` Ultimately, the mineral requirements estimated with equations (3.4) and (3.5) -``` under the various assumptions were compared with metal reserves and annual pro- - duction (in 2017). A ‘reserve’ is regarded as the amount economically extractable - with the current technologies and at the current metal price, and can change signifi- - cantly over time. However, comparing reserves with estimated future requirements - can provide insight into how the introduction of clean energy technologies will - affect the physical availability of metals in the future. We also compared current - production with the estimated future requirements to estimate the likelihood of a - -rapid increase in requirements. The key results are presented in Chap. 11. +rapid increase in requirements. The key results are presented in Chap. [^11]:. **3.8 Climate Model** -**_3.8.1 Deriving Non-CO 2 GHG Pathways_** +**3.8.1 Deriving Non-CO**[^2]: **GHG Pathways** This section provides an overview of the methodology that has been used to com- - -plement the energy-related CO 2 emission pathways for non-energy-related CO 2 - +plement the energy-related CO[^2]: emission pathways for non-energy-related CO2 emissions, other GHG emissions, and aerosols. - -``` -The energy-related CO 2 emissions were derived using energy-system modelling -``` -frameworks, but two different approaches have been used to derive the land-use CO 2 - +The energy-related CO[^2]: emissions were derived using energy-system modelling +frameworks, but two different approaches have been used to derive the land-use CO2 emissions and other GHG emissions. First, we will describe the approach that was - used to determine other GHG emissions. This approach can be summarized as a +statistical analysis of currently published scenarios. To derive non-CO[^2]: pathways -statistical analysis of currently published scenarios. To derive non-CO 2 pathways - -that are consistent with the relevant emission mitigation levels, the non-CO 2 emis- - -sions were regressed against the fossil fuel and industrial CO 2 emissions. These - -regression characteristics were then used to derive the non-CO 2 emissions. This +that are consistent with the relevant emission mitigation levels, the non-CO[^2]: emis- +sions were regressed against the fossil fuel and industrial CO[^2]: emissions. These +regression characteristics were then used to derive the non-CO[^2]: emissions. This method has been newly developed in the context of this study and can be regarded - as a further development of the Equal Quantile Walk method introduced by - -Meinshausen et al. ( 2006 ). - -``` +Meinshausen et al. ([^2006]:). One challenge in applying the collective knowledge that is enshrined in multi- -``` -gas- emission scenarios in the literature is that regional and sectoral definitions differ - +gas-emission scenarios in the literature is that regional and sectoral definitions differ slightly between the various modelling groups. Because most IPCC scenarios work - are based on the emission categories used by the IAM community, their emission - -categories and regions have been adopted in this analysis of non-CO 2 emission path- - +categories and regions have been adopted in this analysis of non-CO[^2]: emission path- ways. The steps in the analysis are described in the following sub-sections. **3.8.1.1 Regional Definitions** -First, the regional energy-related CO 2 emissions developed in the previous sections - +First, the regional energy-related CO[^2]: emissions developed in the previous sections must be transformed to match the five Renewable Communities Program (RCP) - regions used by the IAM community, into the regions OECD90 (OECD countries, ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 61 ``` membership status as of 1990), ASIA (Asian countries), REF (economies in transi- - tion), LAM (Latin America), and MAF (Middle East and Africa). Table 3.9 (above) - indicates the overlap and differences between the RCP regions with the other - regions described in this report. As an indicator of how different the regional defini- - tions are, we used the fossil fuel and industrial emissions for the year 2015 accord- - -ing to the 2017 update of the PRIMAP database (Gütschow et al. 2016 ). - -``` +ing to the 2017 update of the PRIMAP database (Gütschow et al. [^2016]:). Table 3.9 provides an overview to the regional definitions used in this study. The -``` -top row indicates the regions for the CO 2 fossil and industrial emissions, and the - -various rows refer to the five regions used in IAMs. To derive the non-CO 2 emis- - +top row indicates the regions for the CO[^2]: fossil and industrial emissions, and the +various rows refer to the five regions used in IAMs. To derive the non-CO[^2]: emis- sions, we used the IAM’s five RCP regions. The numbers indicate the fossil fuel and - -industrial emissions in the year 2015 in MtCO 2 , aggregated from country-level data. - +industrial emissions in the year 2015 in MtCO[^2]:, aggregated from country-level data. The colour shading of the cells indicates where most of the 2015 emissions occurred. - -``` Table 3.9 Regional definitions according to the Integrated Assessment Modelling -``` community (so-called ‘RCP5’ regions) compared with the other regions used in this - study The overlap and differences between the two sets of regional definitions are - -shown with the 2015 fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions. For example, the first row - +shown with the 2015 fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emissions. For example, the first row indicates that the largest sub-region in the RCP5_Asia group is China, with 8,826 - -MtCO 2 of emissions. - -``` -The transfer of the energy-related CO 2 emission results to fit the IAM’s regional -``` +MtCO[^2]: of emissions. +The transfer of the energy-related CO[^2]: emission results to fit the IAM’s regional categorization (which is consistent with IEA WEO reports) was performed by first - disaggregating all the results to country-level data. A simple proportional scale was - -applied to the 2015 energy-related country-level CO 2 emissions from the PRIMAP - +applied to the 2015 energy-related country-level CO[^2]: emissions from the PRIMAP database. The disaggregated country-level data were then re-aggregated at the RCP5 regional level. **3.8.1.2 Harmonization: Emission Category Adjustments** -Before proceeding with the application of CO 2 versus non-CO 2 statistical relation- - +Before proceeding with the application of CO[^2]: versus non-CO[^2]: statistical relation- ships, a harmonization step is necessary. Various IAM use slightly different catego- ries, emission factors, and activity data to estimate emissions. This can result in ``` Regions +``` +``` Developing Asia Africa +``` +``` Middle East ``` @@ -10037,6 +7413,8 @@ East Central & South Amer Eurasia China India +``` +``` North America ``` @@ -10044,79 +7422,52 @@ America OECD Asia Oceania Subtotal -RCP5_Asia 1,561 - - - 19 21 8,826 1,985 - 674 13 ,086 +RCP5_Asia 1,561 - - - 19 21 8,826 1,985 - 674 13,086 RCP5_REF - 720 - - - 2,153 - - - - 2,873 RCP5_MAF - - 1,174 2,021 - - - - - - 3,195 -RCP5_OECD 9 -0 2 3,031 - - - - - - 5,766 1,577 10 ,376 +RCP5_OECD9 +0 2 3,031 - - - - - - 5,766 1,577 10,376 RCP5_LAM - - - - 1,216 - - - 461 - 1,676 -Subtotal 1,563 3,751 1,174 2,021 1,235 2,174 8,826 1,985 6,226 2,251 31 ,206 +Subtotal 1,563 3,751 1,174 2,021 1,235 2,174 8,826 1,985 6,226 2,251 31,206 ``` ``` Europe ``` **Table 3.9** Regional definitions according to the Integrated Assessment Modelling community -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 62 some spread in the current emission estimates for the same regions and categories. - To address this issue, the standard practice in the IAM community is to work with - harmonized emissions scenarios, meaning that the original emissions scenarios - have either been scaled or shifted towards a common reference point. A recent his- - torical emission level is normally chosen as this reference point. Here, we chose the - 2015 emissions across the five RCP regions. - -``` Harmonization was performed in two steps. First, emissions were added that -``` -were related to the CO 2 fossil and industrial emission categories (such as waste- - +were related to the CO[^2]: fossil and industrial emission categories (such as waste- related emissions) and that were outside the scope of emissions in the energy-related -CO 2 emission chapters. The scenarios from which these ‘other’ energy-related CO 2 - +CO[^2]: emission chapters. The scenarios from which these ‘other’ energy-related CO2 emissions were taken were: the SSP2_Ref_SPA0_V25_upscaled_MESSAGE_ GLOBIOM (for the 5.0 °C reference scenario); SSP1_26_SPA1_V25_IMAGE (for - the 2.0  °C Scenario), and SSP1_19_SPA1_V25_IMAGE scenario (for the 1.5°C - Scenario). In the second harmonization step, the overall sum of the complemented - -2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario CO 2 emissions were compared with the overall fossil and - -industrial sum of CO 2 emissions in the year 2015, which were used for scenario - +2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario CO[^2]: emissions were compared with the overall fossil and +industrial sum of CO[^2]: emissions in the year 2015, which were used for scenario harmonization under the CMIP6 ScenarioMIP process (Meinshausen et al., in prep- - aration). This comparison revealed that there were still differences between the - -complemented energy scenarios (see Chapter 8) and the harmonization emission - +complemented energy scenarios (see Chapter [^8]:) and the harmonization emission levels for the various regions. These differences could again have resulted from dif- - ferent emission factors or activity assumptions, or they could simply reflect genuine - uncertainty in the overall global and regional anthropogenic emissions. Consistent - with the processing steps used in the CMIP6 process, we up- and down-scaled the - raw and regionally disaggregated energy scenario emissions towards the harmoni- - zation emission levels. Figure 3.12 shows the differences between the raw emission - scenario data, the data re-aggregated into the RCP regions, and the CMIP6 emission - -harmonization fossil and industrial CO 2 emission levels for 2015 (in GtC). The dif- - +harmonization fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emission levels for 2015 (in GtC). The dif- ferences were bridged by applying a time-constant scaling factor. ``` @@ -10136,8 +7487,6 @@ ferences were bridged by applying a time-constant scaling factor. ``` 0.91 0.63 0.51 0.48 -``` -``` 0.00 ``` ``` @@ -10165,7 +7514,7 @@ GtC Emissions in 201 5 ``` ``` -Harmonisation of Fossil & Industry CO 2 Emissions +Harmonisation of Fossil & Industry CO2 Emissions ``` ``` 5.0C (Reference) Harmonised Fossil & Industrial @@ -10175,122 +7524,70 @@ Harmonisation of Fossil & Industry CO 2 Emissions ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 63 ``` -**3.8.1.3 A New Quantile Regression Method for Non-CO 2 Gases** - -The completed fossil and industrial CO 2 emission time series can now be compared +**3.8.1.3 A New Quantile Regression Method for Non-CO**[^2]: **Gases** +The completed fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emission time series can now be compared with the set of scenarios in the literature. In this study, we used 811 scenarios from - CMIP6 databases or the databases underlying the IPCC SR1.5 report. These - -literature- reported studies are either reference scenarios or mitigation scenarios - +literature-reported studies are either reference scenarios or mitigation scenarios with a specific forcing target or climate target. Some of the scenarios aim for 1.5 °C - -levels of change, others for 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalence concentrations, and yet oth- - +levels of change, others for 450 ppm CO[^2]:-equivalence concentrations, and yet oth- ers assume fragmented worlds, with regional rivalries and no consistent policy - approach. In summary, the input assumptions of all these literature-reported sce- - narios vary widely, yet all have some formal energy-system modelling framework - -behind them that provides first-level assurance that the envisaged CO 2 , methane, - +behind them that provides first-level assurance that the envisaged CO[^2]:, methane, nitrous oxide, and other gas emission levels are not set below the limits considered - technologically feasible under a certain set of boundary conditions, such as the - requirement to continuing feeding the human population. The technological and - economic feasibilities of emission pathways are fluid concepts, subject to change in - response to technological advances and changes in policy settings. - -``` This study and the approach it uses are not dependent on absolute levels of miti- -``` gation costs or precise definitions of technological feasibility. Instead, the method - used assumes that that non-CO2 gases are reduced with a similar effort as that - -required to reduce CO 2 emissions. Therefore, using the emission characteristics - +required to reduce CO[^2]: emissions. Therefore, using the emission characteristics from a large set of scenarios reported in the literature, we assume similar levels of - technological feasibility, economic mitigation costs, and implementation opportuni- - -ties will be required to reduce emissions of CO 2 and various other gases. - -``` -More specifically, we derived the non-CO 2 emissions in a particular year by -``` -ranking all the scenarios against the indicator of fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions - +ties will be required to reduce emissions of CO[^2]: and various other gases. +More specifically, we derived the non-CO[^2]: emissions in a particular year by +ranking all the scenarios against the indicator of fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emissions in that year (see Fig. 3.11 below). By comparing them to the ‘crowd’ of other - -literature- reported scenarios, the LDF pathways could also be ranked. Specifically, - +literature-reported scenarios, the LDF pathways could also be ranked. Specifically, the LDF reference scenario turned out to be around the 75th percentile of the - -distribution of the fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions across all 811 scenarios con- - +distribution of the fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emissions across all 811 scenarios con- sidered. By contrast, the lower 1.5 °C Scenario and 2.0 °C Scenario were not at the - absolute lower boundary of the 811 scenario distribution, but were close to it. The - 1.5 °C Scenario ranked between the zero and first percentile—that is, among the 1% - most stringent scenarios in the literature for the years 2025–2045. In the period until - 2050, the 2.0 °C Scenario was situated between the 5th and 10th percentiles of the - scenario distribution (see Fig. 3.13). - -``` Figure 3.13 shows the 1.5  °C and 2.0  °C Scenarios, their absolute fossil and -``` -industry CO 2 emissions until 2050 (upper panel), and their respective locations in - +industry CO[^2]: emissions until 2050 (upper panel), and their respective locations in the set of 811 literature-reported scenarios considered (lower panel). The post-2050 - -scenario extensions were extrapolated differently for fossil and industrial CO 2 and - -the non-CO 2 gases. To derive the non-CO 2 gases, the 2050 percentile location was - +scenario extensions were extrapolated differently for fossil and industrial CO[^2]: and +the non-CO[^2]: gases. To derive the non-CO[^2]: gases, the 2050 percentile location was assumed constant for the remainder of the twenty-first century. For the fossil and -industrial CO 2 emissions in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, which do not assume - -3 Methodology +industrial CO[^2]: emissions in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, which do not assume +[^3]: Methodology 64 BECCS to achieve net negative emission levels, a continuation of the constant zero - emission level was assumed (straight constant emission level in the upper panel cor- - responding to the increasing percentile level of the red–blue dashed line in the lower - panel). -**3.8.1.4 ‘Pseudo’ Fossil and Industrial CO 2 Extensions Beyond 2050** +**3.8.1.4 ‘Pseudo’ Fossil and Industrial CO**[^2]: **Extensions Beyond 2050** By the end of the century, almost 40% of all of 811 scenarios will feature net nega- - -tive fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions, largely because there is some level of bio- - +tive fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emissions, largely because there is some level of bio- mass and CCS deployment. Given that the energy scenarios developed for this study - do not assume, by design, any BECCS-related emission uptake, the extended post- - 2050 energy scenarios are assumed to be consistent with other scenarios in which - emissions will be around zero by the end of the century. However, those other ``` @@ -10329,39 +7626,29 @@ emissions will be around zero by the end of the century. However, those other ``` 100% ``` -``` Global F -``` -``` + ossil & Industrial -``` -``` + CO + ``` -``` -Emissions ( 2 -``` +Emissions (2 ``` GtC -``` -``` + ) -``` -``` + Pe -``` -``` + rcentile of Global -``` -``` + Fo -``` -``` + ssil -``` -``` + & Indsutrial Emissions (%) -``` + ``` 5.0C (Reference) ``` @@ -10393,9 +7680,9 @@ Assumed constant post-2050 percentile ``` Assumed constant zero post-2050 emissions ``` -**Fig. 3.13** The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and their absolute fossil and industry CO 2 emissions -until 2050. The energy-related CO 2 emissions pathways from the other chapters are used until -2050, and then extended beyond 2050 by either keeping the CO 2 emissions constant (in the case of +**Fig. 3.13** The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and their absolute fossil and industry CO[^2]: emissions +until 2050. The energy-related CO[^2]: emissions pathways from the other chapters are used until +2050, and then extended beyond 2050 by either keeping the CO[^2]: emissions constant (in the case of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, i.e., red and purple dashed lines beyond 2050 in the upper panel) or by keeping the percentile level within the literature-reported scenarios constant (in the case of the reference scenario, i.e., green solid line in the upper panel). The percentile rank within the other @@ -10406,106 +7693,60 @@ rank among all the literature-reported scenarios (increasing purple–red line i ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 65 ``` scenarios with zero emissions by the end of the century tend to reflect a much lower - -level of mitigation effort. Therefore, to derive non-CO 2 emissions that involve a - +level of mitigation effort. Therefore, to derive non-CO[^2]: emissions that involve a level of effort that is comparable to the mitigation effort involved in reducing - -energy-related CO 2 emissions, we assumed that the energy scenarios developed for - +energy-related CO[^2]: emissions, we assumed that the energy scenarios developed for this study were comparable to other scenarios that share zero emissions around 2050. This percentile ‘stringency’ level was then held constant for the remainder of - -the twenty-first century. Therefore, whereas the actual fossil and industrial CO 2 - -emissions in the LDF scenarios are assumed to remain constant at zero, the non-CO 2 - +the twenty-first century. Therefore, whereas the actual fossil and industrial CO2 +emissions in the LDF scenarios are assumed to remain constant at zero, the non-CO2 gas emissions are derived from data in the existing literature, as if the scenarios - remained at a stringency level of ~3% in the second half of the twenty-first century - (see the lower panel in Fig. 3.13). - -``` -We now have the fossil and industrial CO 2 emission levels throughout the twenty- -``` +We now have the fossil and industrial CO2 emission levels throughout the twenty- first century for each of the three scenarios, and have complemented these with the - -‘pseudo’ CO 2 emission levels for the second half of the twenty-first century. - -Therefore, we can derive the corresponding non-CO 2 emissions. - -``` -In the first step, we derived the total non-CO 2 emissions for a specific year and -``` +‘pseudo’ CO2 emission levels for the second half of the twenty-first century. +Therefore, we can derive the corresponding non-CO2 emissions. +In the first step, we derived the total non-CO2 emissions for a specific year and for the world as a whole. In the second step, we determined the shares of global fos- - sil and industrial emissions versus the land-use-related emissions—again regressed - -against the overall fossil CO 2 emission level as an indicator of the ‘stringency’ of the - +against the overall fossil CO2 emission level as an indicator of the ‘stringency’ of the scenario. In the third step, we disaggregated these fossil and land-use-specific emis- - sion time series into regional time series. Again, the shares of the regional emissions - were derived with the same quantile regressions shown in Fig. 3.13 above. With - these three quantile regression steps, we inferred either the lower (if lower quantile - ranges are chosen), medium (for a median 50% quantile regression), or higher emis- - sion levels of the other gases. In this study, we do not intend to provide probabilistic - emission scenarios and therefore limited our quantile regression choice to the - median 50% setting for all regions, sectoral divisions, and other global total gases. - -``` The major advantage of this newly developed method compared with the EQW -``` -method developed earlier (Meinshausen et al. 2006 ) is that the negative correlations - -between CO 2 and other gases can also be taken into account. By performing all - -quantile regressions in the space defined by the global fossil and industrial CO 2 - +method developed earlier (Meinshausen et al. 2006) is that the negative correlations +between CO2 and other gases can also be taken into account. By performing all +quantile regressions in the space defined by the global fossil and industrial CO2 emissions in a particular year, any kind of non-linear, positive or negative relation- - -ship with other non-CO 2 gas emission levels, sectoral divisions, or regional divi- - +ship with other non-CO2 gas emission levels, sectoral divisions, or regional divi- sions are automatically incorporated into the final result—reflecting the overall - characteristics of the chosen set of emission scenarios. Not all the 811 emission - scenarios contained details of all the sectoral and regional divisions, but the step- - wise approach of this method can incorporate the characteristics from all the sce- - narios in whatever detail is available. - -``` Figure 3.14 shows sample distributions of the emission scenario characteristics for -``` the year 2040 and a subset of 21 GHGs. The x-axis of each plot shows the global fossil - -and industrial CO 2 emissions, and the y-axis shows the global emission levels of - +and industrial CO2 emissions, and the y-axis shows the global emission levels of another GHG, with one marker (blue dot) for each literature-reported scenario consid- ered. The five red lines are quantile regressions at the levels of 20%, 33%, 50% (median), 66%, and 80% of the scenario distribution. It can be clearly seen that some -total gas emissions correlate strongly with the fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions - -3 Methodology +total gas emissions correlate strongly with the fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emissions +[^3]: Methodology 66 @@ -10931,7 +8172,8 @@ HFC32 HFC125 ``` ``` --100-5 0510 15 20 25 +-5 0510 15 20 25 +-100 ``` ``` 0 @@ -10965,10 +8207,11 @@ HFC125 HFC134A ``` ``` -Global Fossil & Industrial CO 2 Emissions (GtC) +Global Fossil & Industrial CO2 Emissions (GtC) ``` ``` --2-5 0510 15 20 25 +-5 0510 15 20 25 +-2 ``` ``` 0 @@ -10990,7 +8233,8 @@ Global Fossil & Industrial CO 2 Emissions (GtC) HFC227EA ``` ``` --2-5 0510 15 20 25 +-5 0510 15 20 25 +-2 ``` ``` 0 @@ -11059,7 +8303,8 @@ Global Emissions (kt) Global Emissions (kt) ``` ``` -Global Emissions (kt) Global Emissions (kt) +Global Emissions (kt) +Global Emissions (kt) ``` ``` Global Emissions (kt) @@ -11096,12 +8341,10 @@ Global Emissions (MtCO) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 67 ``` (such as the SOX aerosols in the top-right panel), whereas others correlate less strongly. - This method reflects the level of correlation in the finally derived multi-gas scenarios. **3.8.1.5 Land-Use Assumptions** @@ -11110,84 +8353,46 @@ In principle, the same methodological approach can be used for land-use emission In the IAM scenarios, the emission sequestration with the BECCS technology is -reported as a negative emission in the fossil and industrial CO 2 emission categories. - -Therefore, the quantile regression approach can also be applied to the land-use CO 2 +reported as a negative emission in the fossil and industrial CO[^2]: emission categories. +Therefore, the quantile regression approach can also be applied to the land-use CO2 sector. However, to more explicitly define the land-use choices that are implied by - various land-use scenarios, we developed a new (probabilistic) scenario in conjunc- - -tion with another land-use emission project (Dooley et al. 2018 ) - -``` +tion with another land-use emission project (Dooley et al. [^2018]:) This method is based on various literature-reported studies and we provide an -``` overall synthesis of four different land-use-based sequestration pathways: ‘forest - ecosystem restoration’, ‘reforestation’, ‘sustainable use of forests’, and ‘agrofor- - estry’. These land-use sequestration pathways are based on the premise that the - better management of terrestrial ecosystems should allow previously degraded car- - -bon stocks to be restored, entailing the removal of significant atmospheric CO 2 - -(DeCicco and Schlesinger 2018 ; Law et  al. 2018 ; Mackey et  al. 2013 ; Mackey - -2014 ; Nabuurs et al. 2017 ). We derived the overall pathways separately for the tem- - +bon stocks to be restored, entailing the removal of significant atmospheric CO2 +(DeCicco and Schlesinger [^2018]:; Law et  al. [^2018]:; Mackey et  al. [^2013]:; Mackey +[^2014]:; Nabuurs et al. [^2017]:). We derived the overall pathways separately for the tem- perate and boreal regions on the one side and the subtropical and tropical regions on - the other. This distinction is largely consistent with the dominant distinction of dif- - -ferent climate domain characteristics in the literature (Grace et al. 2014 ; Houghton - -and Nassikas 2018 ; Pan et al. 2011 ), although the temperate and boreal biomes are - +ferent climate domain characteristics in the literature (Grace et al. [^2014]:; Houghton +and Nassikas [^2018]:; Pan et al. [^2011]:), although the temperate and boreal biomes are as different in terms of land-use and forest ecosystem characteristics as the tropical - biomes are from each of them. However, we derived only two climate domains - because several of the RCP regions cross both temperate and boreal biomes. A nar- - rative for each of these pathways is available in Table 3.10 below. - -``` Based on literature studies and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statis- -``` tics, we then defined the available areas (and their uncertainties) for each of the four - sequestration pathways. Similarly, we sourced average estimates of the maximal - annual sequestration rates for the biomes (and their levels of uncertainty) for those - four sequestration pathways—again distinguished in the large temperate/boreal and - subtropical/tropical climate domains. We assume that after a certain ‘phase-in - period’, this maximal annual sequestration rate can be reached and sustained for a - number of years. We assume that after some decades to centuries, the capacities of - these terrestrial ecosystems as carbon sinks will slowly decline until they reach - equilibrium, termed the ‘saturation’ period. At the equilibrium point, these ecosys- - -tems have a net zero effect on atmospheric CO 2 over the time scales of interest here - -(Houghton and Nassikas 2018 ). The period over which the maximal sequestration - +tems have a net zero effect on atmospheric CO[^2]: over the time scales of interest here +(Houghton and Nassikas [^2018]:). The period over which the maximal sequestration rate is assumed, is reduced by the half-length of the corresponding phase-in and - phase-out periods to account for the cumulative carbon uptake in those periods. As - the last element in this framework, we assume a cap on the median carbon density - change that is achieved over the full period. The difference between a degraded for- -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 68 @@ -11210,9 +8415,9 @@ of total) Te,B Assume 25% of degraded natural forest put aside for full ecosystem and carbon stock recovery. Saturation times in temperate and boreal forests can be well over 100, or even -200 years (Luyssaert et al. 2008 ; Roxburgh et al. 2006 ). +200 years (Luyssaert et al. 2008; Roxburgh et al. 2006). 25% set-aside is slightly higher than assumptions made in -recent literature (Böttcher et al. 2018 ; Nabuurs et al. 2017 ), +recent literature (Böttcher et al. 2018; Nabuurs et al. 2017), but in line with calls from conservation and indigenous movements. S,Tr Assume 25% of degraded natural forests across the tropics @@ -11220,10 +8425,10 @@ set aside for full ecosystem and carbon stock recovery. Stopping all deforestation, wood harvest and temporary use, while traditional and customary uses continue. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is higher across the tropics -than in temperate and boreal biomes (Anav et al. 2015 ), +than in temperate and boreal biomes (Anav et al. 2015), hence sequestration rates are higher, but saturation times are shorter. We assume 60 years to ecosystem maturity -(Arneth et al. 2017 ; Poorter et al. 2016 ). Sequestration rates +(Arneth et al. 2017; Poorter et al. 2016). Sequestration rates across all biomes for forest ecosystem restoration are lower than post-logging recovery rates, as here we assume mixed age-class forests which have not been recently logged than @@ -11244,23 +8449,22 @@ this 350 Mha is assumed to be reforestation for conservation purposes, which creates an ongoing sink from 2030 to 2100, with saturation assumed at 100 years. Boreal areas excluded due to albedo effect (Houghton and -Nassikas 2018 ). +Nassikas 2018). S,Tr Natural forest expansion on recently deforested land as described above. We assume 80% of forest expansion occurs in the tropics, given 80% of Bonn Challenge pledges are in tropical regions (Wheeler et al. in press). All regeneration is assumed to be with natural forests rather than plantations, as this delivers the highest mitigation and -biodiversity values (Grace et al., 2014 ; Wheeler et al. in +biodiversity values (Grace et al., 2014; Wheeler et al. in press). Saturation of tropical regrowth forests is assumed at 60 years, although large trees can take well over a century -to mature (Poorter et al. 2016 ). +to mature (Poorter et al. 2016). (continued) ``` ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 69 ``` @@ -11268,9 +8472,9 @@ est ecosystem and its natural carbon-carrying capacity is the maximum potential additional sequestration. Therefore, we used biome-averaged values for the per -hectare carbon density of undisturbed forest ecosystems (Keith et al. 2009 ), rather +hectare carbon density of undisturbed forest ecosystems (Keith et al. [^2009]:), rather -than average global biome values (Liu et al. 2015 ), to define the maximum carbon +than average global biome values (Liu et al. [^2015]:), to define the maximum carbon density. Although the LDF scenarios only extend to 2050 or to 2100 for all the other @@ -11278,9 +8482,8 @@ GHGs, we modelled the land-use sequestration pathway assumptions until 2300 to be able to apply the overall ‘added carbon density’ cap. -``` Our climate-domain- and sequestration-specific assumptions regarding the -``` + median values, their uncertainty ranges, and confidence intervals are given in **Table 3.10** (continued) @@ -11302,122 +8505,88 @@ Te,B Sustainable use of natural production forests (i.e. excluding plantations) under continued wood harvest. Multiple studies show the potential to double forest carbon stocks in production forests through reducing harvest intensity and -extending rotation lengths (Law et al. 2018 ; Nabuurs et al. -2017 ; Pingoud et al. 2018 ). Wood harvest is slightly +extending rotation lengths (Law et al. 2018; Nabuurs et al. +2017; Pingoud et al. 2018). Wood harvest is slightly reduced, requiring reduced demand for wood products, more efficient wood use and compensation to land-owners -(Law et al. 2018 ; Pingoud et al. 2018 ). Including harvested +(Law et al. 2018; Pingoud et al. 2018). Including harvested wood products (HWP) in calculations could increase -mitigation values (Houghton and Nassikas 2018 ; Nabuurs -et al. 2017 ), but the life-time of HWP is generally too short +mitigation values (Houghton and Nassikas 2018; Nabuurs +et al. 2017), but the life-time of HWP is generally too short to realise mitigation value compared to residence times in -forest biomass (Law et al. 2018 ; Keith et al. 2015 ). +forest biomass (Law et al. 2018; Keith et al. 2015). S,Tr Reduced harvest intensity and management practices such as reduced impact logging have not been shown to increase -carbon stock in tropical forests (Martin et al. 2015 ). Carbon +carbon stock in tropical forests (Martin et al. 2015). Carbon stocks are concentrated in commercially-valuable hardwood trees taking >100 years to reach maturity; hence selective logging as practiced across the tropics significantly decreases standing carbon stocks (Lutz et al. -2018 ; Zimmerman and Kormos 2012 ). Our scenario +2018; Zimmerman and Kormos 2012). Our scenario assumes no commercial logging of tropical forests, and the extent of shifting cultivation is halved, allowing traditional practices to continue with lengthened fallow times and/or -improved swidden practices (Mackey et al. 2018 ; Ziegler -et al. 2012 ). +improved swidden practices (Mackey et al. 2018; Ziegler +et al. 2012). Agroforestry (Trees in croplands) ``` ``` T,B We calculate biome-average sequestration rates from the literature for above-ground carbon uptake due to a broad -range of agroforestry practices (Watson et al. 2000 ; -Nabuurs et al. 2017 ; Ramachandran Nair et al. 2009 ), and +range of agroforestry practices (Watson et al. 2000; +Nabuurs et al. 2017; Ramachandran Nair et al. 2009), and subtract from this the baseline increase observed by Zomer -et al. ( 2016 ). We apply this uptake to 20% of permanent +et al. (2016). We apply this uptake to 20% of permanent cropland, and assume the resulting sequestration rate could -be sustained for 50 years (Watson et al. 2000 ). +be sustained for 50 years (Watson et al. 2000). ``` ``` S,Tr ``` These domains are defined as temperate (Te), boreal (B), subtropical (S), or tropical (Tr). Note, this -narrative overlaps with another land-use-related study (Dooley et al. 2018 ) - -3 Methodology +narrative overlaps with another land-use-related study (Dooley et al. [^2018]:) +[^3]: Methodology 70 Table 3.11. Our method of combining these input assumptions is a basic Monte Carlo - ensemble. Given the symmetry or asymmetry and respective confidence intervals of - the factors provided, we then created normal, lognormal, or skewed normal distribu- - tions (the latter is a linear combination of the normal and lognormal distributions to - achieve the desired skewedness). We then made 500 independent draws from all four - factors considered (area, maximum sequestration rate, phase-in time, and phase-out - time). We repeated that process independently for each sequestration pathway and - for each country within each climate domain. The areas for each country within the - climate domains were assumed to be proportionally distributed by the relevant ‘FAO - Scaling Area’ (see third column in Table 3.11), so that the climate domain aggregate - areas matched our input assumptions for the respective sequestration pathway. - -``` After combining all the country-specific and sequestration-pathway-specific -``` time series for carbon uptake per sequestration pathway, we then checked whether - the resulting cumulative sequestration over time (specifically its median) was at or - below the specified maximum for the median carbon density change per hectare. If - it was not, we scaled all the country-specific results proportionally, so that the - median matched the cap on the carbon density gain. -**_3.8.2 Model for the Assessment of GHG-Induced Climate_** - -**_Change_** +**3.8.2 Model for the Assessment of GHG-Induced Climate** +**Change** To compute GHG concentrations and the implications for radiative forcing, global - mean temperatures, and global mean sea-level rise, we used the reduced-complexity - ‘Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas-induced Climate Change’ - -(MAGICC), as described by Meinshausen et  al. ( 2011 ). The model has recently - +(MAGICC), as described by Meinshausen et  al. ([^2011]:). The model has recently been extended by the addition of a newly designed sea-level rise module, as - -described in Nauels et al. ( 2016 ). - -``` +described in Nauels et al. ([^2016]:). The MAGICC model has at its core an upwelling-diffusion ocean with 50 layers, -``` in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Some simpler model approaches, - with only a diffusive one-box ocean, for example, tend to overestimate the medium- - term warming compared with the longer-term warming, (i.e., they tend to reach - equilibrium too quickly). In the short term, the MAGICC modelling structure pro- - vides faster warming, but a lower approach to equilibrium, due to the effective cool- - ing cycle that mimics the sinking polar ocean waters. - -``` Although simple in its general structure, the MAGICC model uses a broad cover- -``` + age of GHGs and aerosols. This is much broader than for earth system models, because it would be too computationally expensive to carry around tracers for every @@ -11440,7 +8609,6 @@ work to determine the exceedance probabilities of various emission pathways. For ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - **Table 3.11** Assumptions regarding the four land-use sequestration pathways for two climate domain categories @@ -11464,10 +8632,8 @@ Related sources Assumed ``` ``` -median -added carbon -maximum -(MgC/h) +median added carbon +maximum (MgC/h) ``` ``` Assumed maximum sequestration rate (MgC/ha/year) @@ -11500,15 +8666,14 @@ Other Natural Forest Area 2015 276 (80%: 248–303) ``` ``` -FAO (^2016 +FAO ([^2016] ``` ``` ) ``` ``` 185 -(Keith -et al. 2009 +(Keith et al.[^2009] ``` ``` ) @@ -11559,7 +8724,7 @@ S,Tr 335 (80%: 302–369) ``` ``` -FAO (^2016 +FAO ([^2016] ``` ``` ) @@ -11583,7 +8748,7 @@ Pan et al. ( 60 (80%: 42–78) ``` ``` -Pan et al. (^2011 +Pan et al. ([^2011] ``` ``` ), Grace @@ -11625,7 +8790,7 @@ Change in total forest area from 1990 to 2015 50 (80%: 45–55) ``` ``` -FAO (^2016 +FAO ([^2016] ``` ``` ) @@ -11679,7 +8844,7 @@ S,Tr 300 (80%: 270–330) ``` ``` -FAO (^2016 +FAO ([^2016] ``` ``` ) @@ -11703,7 +8868,7 @@ IPCC ( 60 (80%: 42–78) ``` ``` -Pan et al. (^2011 +Pan et al. ([^2011] ``` ``` ), Grace @@ -11730,10 +8895,8 @@ and Poorter et al. ( 20 (90%: 7–20) ``` ``` -20 (90%: 10 to 100) -(continued) +20 (90%: 10 to 100) (continued) ``` - **Table 3.11** (continued) @@ -11757,10 +8920,8 @@ Related sources Assumed ``` ``` -median -added carbon -maximum -(MgC/h) +median added carbon +maximum (MgC/h) ``` ``` Assumed maximum sequestration rate (MgC/ha/year) @@ -11793,20 +8954,17 @@ Production Forest 2015 743 (80%: 669–817) ``` ``` -FAO (^2016 +FAO ([^2016] ``` ``` ) ``` ``` 185 (an -upper end estimate, +upper end estimate, possibly too high, ``` ``` -possibly too high, cf. Liu -``` -``` et al. 2015 ``` ``` @@ -11816,7 +8974,7 @@ et al. 2015 0.4 (80%: 0.36–0.44) ``` ``` -Nabuurs et al. (^2017 +Nabuurs et al. ([^2017] ``` ``` ) @@ -11855,7 +9013,7 @@ S,Tr 419 (80%: 377–461) ``` ``` -FAO (^2016 +FAO ([^2016] ``` ``` ) @@ -11873,13 +9031,13 @@ Houughton and Nassikas (2018) 60 (80%: 42 to 78) ``` ``` -Pan et al. (^2011 +Pan et al. ([^2011] ``` ``` ) and ``` ``` -Grace et al. (^2014 +Grace et al. ([^2014] ``` ``` ) @@ -11903,13 +9061,13 @@ Permanent crop area 2015 100 (80%: 90–110) ``` ``` -Zomer et al. (^2016 +Zomer et al. ([^2016] ``` ``` ) ``` ``` -and Watson et al. (^2000 +and Watson et al. ([^2000] ``` ``` ); @@ -11930,13 +9088,13 @@ et al. 2016 0.65 (80%: 0.59–0.72) ``` ``` -Nabuurs et al. (^2017 +Nabuurs et al. ([^2017] ``` ``` ) and ``` ``` -Zomer et al. (^2016 +Zomer et al. ([^2016] ``` ``` ) @@ -11945,7 +9103,7 @@ Zomer et al. (^2016 50 (80%: 35 to 65) ``` ``` -Watson et al. (^2000 +Watson et al. ([^2000] ``` ``` ) @@ -11969,7 +9127,7 @@ S,Tr 1.09 (80%: 0.98–1.2) ``` ``` -Ramachdradan Nair et al (2009) and Zomer et al. (^2016 +Ramachdradan Nair et al (2009) and Zomer et al. ([^2016] ``` ``` ) @@ -11978,7 +9136,7 @@ Ramachdradan Nair et al (2009) and Zomer et al. (^2016 50 (80%: 35–65) ``` ``` -Watson et al. (^2000 +Watson et al. ([^2000] ``` ``` ) @@ -11989,7 +9147,6 @@ Watson et al. (^2000 ``` 20 (90%: 10–100) ``` - ``` 73 ``` @@ -12047,8 +9204,7 @@ Elliston, B, MacGill, Ian (2014), Ben Elliston, Iain MacGill, Mark Diesendorf, C cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity, Market, Elsevier, Renewable Energy, Volume 66, June 2014, -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 74 @@ -12111,7 +9267,6 @@ IEA (2017b) World Energy Outlook 2017. OECD Publishing, Paris/IEA, Paris ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 75 ``` @@ -12170,8 +9325,7 @@ Nature Climate Change 3, 552–557. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1804 Mackey, B., Ware, D., Buckwell, A., Nalau, J., Sahin, O., Flemming, C. M., Smart, J.C., Connollet, R., Hallgren, W., 2018. Options and Implementation for Ecosystem-based Adaptation, Tanna -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 76 @@ -12232,7 +9386,6 @@ ISBN 978-3-9818911-3-3 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 77 ``` @@ -12291,15 +9444,14 @@ UNFCCC (2015), The Paris Agreement builds upon the Convention and for the first all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so. As such, -3 Methodology - +[^3]: Methodology 78 it charts a new course in the global climate effort. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/ the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement (Vaisala 2017) Free Wind and Solar Resource Maps; Accessed 25 October 2018; ONLINE; https:// -[http://www.vaisala.com/en/lp/free-wind-and-solar-resource-maps.](http://www.vaisala.com/en/lp/free-wind-and-solar-resource-maps.) +[www.vaisala.com/en/lp/free-wind-and-solar-resource-maps](www.vaisala.com/en/lp/free-wind-and-solar-resource-maps). Watson, B., Noble, L., Bolin, B., et. al., 2000. Summary for policymakers: land use, land-use change, and forestry: a special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. @@ -12321,7 +9473,7 @@ tion of agroforestry to global and national carbon budgets. Scientific Reports 6 org/10.1038/srep29987 **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -12334,59 +9486,40 @@ the copyright holder. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - © The Author(s) 2019 79 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_4 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 4 +**Chapter 4** #### Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG **Malte Meinshausen and Kate Dooley** **Abstract** Presentation of non-energy emission pathways in line with the new - UNFCCC Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) scenario characteristics and the - evaluation of the multi-gas pathways against various temperature thresholds and - carbon budgets (1.5  °C and 2.0  °C) over time, and additionally against a 1.5  °C - carbon budget in 2100, followed by a discussion of the results in the context of the - most recent scientific literature in this field. Presentation of the non-energy GHG +mitigation scenarios calculated to complement the energy-related CO[^2]: emissions +derived in Chap. [^8]:. -mitigation scenarios calculated to complement the energy-related CO 2 emissions +In this section, we present the results for the land-use CO[^2]: and non-CO[^2]: emissions -derived in Chap. 8. +pathways that complement the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C energy-related CO[^2]: scenarios. -In this section, we present the results for the land-use CO 2 and non-CO 2 emissions - -pathways that complement the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C energy-related CO 2 scenarios. - -**4.1 Land-Use CO 2 emissions** +**4.1 Land-Use CO**[^2]: **emissions** This section presents the aggregate results for the land-use sequestration pathways - designed for this study. Figure 4.1 below shows the annual sequestration in the - sequestration pathways over time, differentiated into climate domains. The path- - ways shown are the results of the Monte Carlo analysis described in Table 3.11 in - Sect. 3.8.1.5 and the text. We focus on the median values (thick lines in Fig. 4.1). - Note that the area under the curve for a given pathway is an indication of the cumu- - -lative CO 2 uptake. By far the most important sequestration may result from large- - +lative CO[^2]: uptake. By far the most important sequestration may result from large- scale reforestation measures, particularly in the subtropics and tropics (see yellow - pathways in Fig. 4.1 below). The second most important pathway in terms of the - -amount of CO 2 sequestered is the sustainable use of existing forests, which basically - +amount of CO[^2]: sequestered is the sustainable use of existing forests, which basically means reducing logging within those forests. Although effective mitigation is not M. Meinshausen (*) · K. Dooley @@ -12394,10 +9527,9 @@ Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, Australia e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au; kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au - 80 -achieved in the tropics (Martin et  al. 2015 ), in the temperate and boreal regions, +achieved in the tropics (Martin et  al. [^2015]:), in the temperate and boreal regions, improved forest management could provide substantial additional carbon uptake @@ -12405,47 +9537,35 @@ over time. The time horizon for this sequestration option is assumed to be relat long in temperate and boreal regions, consistent with the longer time it takes for -these forest ecosystems to reach equilibrium (Roxburgh et al. 2006 ; Luyssaert et al. +these forest ecosystems to reach equilibrium (Roxburgh et al. [^2006]:; Luyssaert et al. -2008 ). The ‘forest ecosystem restoration’ pathway is also important, which basi- +[^2008]:). The ‘forest ecosystem restoration’ pathway is also important, which basi- cally assumes a reduction to zero in logging rates in a fraction of the forest, allowing these forests to be restored to full ecosystem function, including their carbon stocks -and resilience due to biodiversity (Mackey 2014 ). +and resilience due to biodiversity (Mackey [^2014]:). ``` Overall, the median of all the assumed sequestration pathways, shown in Fig. 4.1, ``` would result in the sequestration of 151.9 GtC by 2150. This is approximately equiv- -alent to all historical land-use-related CO 2 emissions to date (Houghton and Nassikas - -2017 ; Mackey et al. 2013 ). The magnitude of these figures indicates the substantial +alent to all historical land-use-related CO[^2]: emissions to date (Houghton and Nassikas +[^2017]:; Mackey et al. [^2013]:). The magnitude of these figures indicates the substantial challenges that go hand in hand with these sequestration pathways. Given the com- - peting forms of land use that exist today, the challenge of converting overall terres- - trial carbon stocks back to pre-industrial levels cannot be underestimated. There - would be significant benefits, but also risks, if this sequestration option were to be - used instead of mitigation. The benefits are clearly manifold, ranging from biodiver- - sity protection, reduced erosion, improved local climates, wind protection, and - -potentially a reduction in air pollution (Mackey 2014 ). Despite this, terrestrial car- - +potentially a reduction in air pollution (Mackey [^2014]:). Despite this, terrestrial car- bon sequestration is inherently impermanent. However, a future warming climate - with an increased fire risk also brings with it the risk of large reversals in sequestered - carbon. Similarly, prolonged droughts in some areas could reverse the gains in ter- - restrial carbon stocks. Although the increased resilience of natural and biodiverse - ecosystems compared with that of monoculture plantations can guard against this ``` @@ -12504,102 +9624,57 @@ and tropics) ``` M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley ``` - ``` 81 ``` -risk (DellaSala, 2019 ; Lindenmayer and Sato 2018 ), a future mitigation pathway - +risk (DellaSala, [^2019]:; Lindenmayer and Sato [^2018]:), a future mitigation pathway that relies on sequestration _instead of mitigation action_ is ultimately always more - susceptible to higher long-term climate change, given the risk of ‘non-permanence’. - -However, in this study, the land-use CO 2 sequestration pathways complement some - +However, in this study, the land-use CO[^2]: sequestration pathways complement some of the most ambitious mitigation pathways, and should therefore be regarded, not as - ‘offsetting’ mitigation action, but as complementary measures to help reduce the - -CO 2 concentrations that have arisen from the overly high emissions in the past. - -``` +CO[^2]: concentrations that have arisen from the overly high emissions in the past. The thin lines in Fig. 4.1 indicate individual draws in the Monte Carlo analysis. -``` The thick lines are the median values from the ensemble of draws for each seques- - tration pathway and domain. - -``` We aggregated the four sequestration pathways from our country-level data to -``` the five RCP regions (Fig. 4.2). The country-level data were subject to substantial - uncertainties and simplifications because we used climate-domain average uptakes, - carbon density caps, and saturation periods. The re-aggregated sequestration rates - over the five RCP regions can be considered approximate illustrations of the biome- - average sequestration rates if those sequestration pathways were pursued with a - range of institutional and policy measures. - -``` For the 1.5 °C Scenario, we assumed the full extent of sequestration shown in -``` Fig. 4.1, whereas for the 2.0  °C pathway, we assumed that only a third of that - sequestration will occur. The reference scenario is assumed to follow the SSP2 - ‘middle of the road’ reference scenario created by the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - modelling team. As illustrated in Fig. 4.2, the reference scenario does not assume a - complete phasing-out of global land-use-related net emissions over the next 20 or - 30 years. Instead, it assumes that they are not phased-out until approximately 2080. - -``` The 2.0  °C pathway (brighter blue in Fig. 4.2) aligns relatively well with the -``` SSP1 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 scenarios from the forthcoming CMIP6 model inter- - comparison project. The 1.5 °C pathway, with three times the sequestration rates, is - -consistent with the lower land-use CO 2 scenarios analysed here—with mitigation - +consistent with the lower land-use CO[^2]: scenarios analysed here—with mitigation rates of up to −2 GtC per annum from 2040 to 2050. - -``` -Figure 4.2 shows the land-use-related CO 2 emission and sequestration rates of -``` +Figure 4.2 shows the land-use-related CO[^2]: emission and sequestration rates of the 2.0°C and 1.5  °C pathways in this study compared with those in the CMIP6 - CEDS scenarios (turquoise) and the scenarios from the IPCC SR1.5 database (thin - green lines). The global total pathway is the sum of the five regional pathways - shown in the lower row of the panels. -**_4.1.1 Other GHG and Aerosol Emissions_** - -This section examines the other main GHGs (methane and N 2 O) and gives examples +**4.1.1 Other GHG and Aerosol Emissions** +This section examines the other main GHGs (methane and N[^2]:O) and gives examples of some fluorinated gases. The full results, with the species-by-species time series, - are provided in a data appendix. - -``` -Methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the second-largest contributor to anthropogenically -``` +Methane (CH[^4]:) emissions are the second-largest contributor to anthropogenically induced climate change. Our approach, described in the Methods section earlier, derives pathways for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios that are close to the lower end of the overall scenario distribution. This is mainly because the methane distribution at -4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG - +[^4]: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG 82 @@ -12610,70 +9685,40 @@ Fig. 4.2 Land-use-related CO ``` ``` -emission and sequestration rates 2 +emission and sequestration rates2 ``` ``` M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley ``` - ``` 83 ``` -the lower end of the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions is relatively narrow, and there is a - -strong correlation between the fossil CO 2 and total CH 4 emissions in the scenarios in - +the lower end of the fossil fuel CO[^2]: emissions is relatively narrow, and there is a +strong correlation between the fossil CO[^2]: and total CH[^4]: emissions in the scenarios in any given year (see top-left methane panel in Fig. 3.14). As with almost all literature- - reported scenarios, a lower plateau of methane emissions is associated with agricul- - tural activities required to feed the world’s population. Our quantile regression method - resulted in long-term methane emission levels that are quite similar to those in the two - -lower SSP scenarios, SSP1 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 (Fig. 4.3). The derived CH 4 pathways for - +lower SSP scenarios, SSP1 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 (Fig. 4.3). The derived CH[^4]: pathways for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C track towards the lower of the scenario distributions. - -``` -Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is one of the longer-lived GHGs, although the overall -``` -amounts in the atmosphere are much smaller than those of methane or CO 2. The - -relatively high plateau of global emissions, around 5 MtN 2 O-N for N 2 O, are reflected - +Nitrous oxide (N[^2]:O) is one of the longer-lived GHGs, although the overall +amounts in the atmosphere are much smaller than those of methane or CO[^2]:. The +relatively high plateau of global emissions, around 5 MtN[^2]:O-N for N[^2]:O, are reflected in the SSP1. 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 scenarios (dark green lines in Fig. 4.4) and in the - quantile regression results for the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C scenarios in this study. This - plateau of emissions is related to agricultural activities, mainly the use of fertilizers, - -and combined with the long lifetime of N 2 O, it means that the N 2 O concentrations - +and combined with the long lifetime of N[^2]:O, it means that the N[^2]:O concentrations are projected to increase further over the course of the century, even for the lower - 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C pathways. - -``` The derived methane pathways for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C track towards the lower of -``` the scenario distributions. - -``` Halocarbons and fluorinated gases are another group of important GHGs. -``` Recently, some of these gases, such as HFCs, were also subjected to control under - the Montreal Protocol, with clear phase-out schedules. Some of the halocarbons and - -fluorinated gases (such as tetrafluoromethane, CF 4 ) are only produced and emitted - +fluorinated gases (such as tetrafluoromethane, CF[^4]:) are only produced and emitted in relatively small quantities—largely for industrial purposes in the semi-conductor - industry. Some also have applications in the agricultural sector, including methyl - -bromide, which is used for soil fumigation. SF 6 is one of the strongest GHGs on a - +bromide, which is used for soil fumigation. SF[^6]: is one of the strongest GHGs on a per mass basis. It is controlled under the Kyoto Protocol and included in the nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) by many countries under the Paris Agreement. @@ -12682,40 +9727,24 @@ Our applied quantile regression method practically phases-out many of the haloge nated species over the course of the next 10–20 years, although some small back- -ground emissions remain. The full results for 40 halocarbons, HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6 - +ground emissions remain. The full results for 40 halocarbons, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 are provided in a data appendix (Figs. 4.5 and 4.6). -``` Aerosols have an important temporary masking effect on GHG-induced warm- -``` ing. The most important anthropogenically emitted aerosol coolant in the climate - system is sulfur dioxide or SOX. With higher fuel standards and concerns about local - air pollution, future SOX emissions are projected to be substantially lower than cur- - rent levels. In fact, most emission inventories assume that SOX emissions peaked in - the 1990s. Therefore, even in the most high-fossil-fuel-emitting reference scenarios, - SOX emissions are projected to decrease. Asia produces by far the most SOX emis- - sions of any continent because of the coal-fuelled power plants in China and India. - In the 2.0 °C Scenario, our quantile regression method sets sulfate aerosol emissions - at levels in between those in the SSP1 2.6 and SSP1 1.9 scenarios, whereas in the - 1.5 °C Scenario, the level is even lower. - -``` Similarly, the projected emissions of NOX, which is largely a by-product of fossil -``` fuel burning, are highest in Asia. In the derived 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, NOX -4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG - +[^4]: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG 84 @@ -12728,7 +9757,6 @@ Global and regional methane emissions from fossil, industrial, and land-use-rela ``` M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley ``` - ``` 85 ``` @@ -12738,48 +9766,33 @@ Fig. 4.4 ``` Global and regional methane emissions from fossil, industrial, and land-use-related sources ``` -4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG - +[^4]: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG 86 levels are between the levels in the SSP1 2.6 and SSP1 1.9 scenarios for most of the - twenty-first century (Figs. 4.7 and 4.8). - -``` Black and organic carbon emissions are also accruing substantially in the Middle -``` East and Africa, largely from biomass burning (Figs. 4.9 and 4.10). Similar to other - aerosol emissions, black and organic carbon emissions are projected to decrease. - Although black carbon is a substantial warming agent, organic carbon is a net cool- - ant. Because both species are often co-emitted, the net effect of policies to reduce - black carbon do not have as large a mitigation benefit as might be initially assumed. - This is because a reduction in the processes and activities that produce black carbon - emissions will also lead to lower organic carbon emissions, partially offsetting both - the warming and cooling effects. The emissions projected as part of the IMAGE - model SSP1 2.6 and SSP1 1.9 scenarios are very low compared with those in other +studies. Furthermore, the correlation between fossil CO[^2]: emissions and black or -studies. Furthermore, the correlation between fossil CO 2 emissions and black or - -**Fig. 4.5** Global SF 6 emission levels from literature-reported scenarios and the LDF pathways +**Fig. 4.5** Global SF[^6]: emission levels from literature-reported scenarios and the LDF pathways derived in this study -**Fig. 4.6** Global tetrafluoromethane (CF 4 ) emissions from the collection of assessed literature- +**Fig. 4.6** Global tetrafluoromethane (CF[^4]:) emissions from the collection of assessed literature- reported scenarios and the LDF pathways derived in this study ``` M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley ``` - ``` 87 ``` @@ -12792,8 +9805,7 @@ Global and regional sulfate dioxide (SO ``` ) emissions in the literature-reported scenarios considered and the LDF pathways derived in this studyX ``` -4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG - +[^4]: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG 88 @@ -12809,7 +9821,6 @@ Global and regional nitrate aerosol (NO ``` M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley ``` - ``` 89 ``` @@ -12819,8 +9830,7 @@ Fig. 4.9 ``` Global and regional black carbon BC emissions in the literature-reported scenarios considered and the LDF pathways derived in this study ``` -4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG - +[^4]: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG 90 @@ -12833,23 +9843,19 @@ Global and regional organic carbon OC emissions in the literature-reported scena ``` M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley ``` - ``` 91 ``` -organic carbon is less pronounced than the correlations of fossil CO 2 with other - +organic carbon is less pronounced than the correlations of fossil CO[^2]: with other aerosols, such as NOX and SOX, partly because it results from biomass burning, - which is not related to the burning of fossil fuels. Therefore, with our quantile regression method, the black carbon and organic carbon emission pathways are not as low as those found in the lower SSP scenarios (see Figs. 4.9 and 4.10). -``` -For Tabular overview of three scenarios see Annex -``` +**For Tabular overview of three scenarios see Annex** + **References** DellaSala, D.L., 2019. “Real” vs. “Fake” Forests: Why Tree Plantations are Not Forests, in: @@ -12877,7 +9883,7 @@ Carbon sequestration potential. Journal of Applied Ecology 43, 1149–1159. http org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01221.x **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -12887,14 +9893,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG - +[^4]: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG © The Author(s) 2019 93 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_5 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 5 +**Chapter 5** #### Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways @@ -12938,7 +9942,7 @@ is the core of this approach because we must consider different technical, economic, environmental, and societal factors. The scenario modelling follows a -hybrid bottom- up/top-down approach, with no cost optimising objective functions. +hybrid bottom-up/top-down approach, with no cost optimising objective functions. The analysis considers the key technologies required for a successful energy transi- @@ -12955,7 +9959,6 @@ S. Teske Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au - 94 supply side. However, variable renewable power from wind and photovoltaics (PV) @@ -12978,13 +9981,13 @@ perature increases. The (around) 5.0 °C Scenario was calculated based on the C Policies scenario published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in World -Energy Outlook 2017 (IEA 2017 ), and the emission budget for this scenario simply +Energy Outlook 2017 (IEA [^2017]:), and the emission budget for this scenario simply uses and extrapolates from the corresponding narratives. The 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios were calculated in a normative way to achieve defined emission budgets. -**_5.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario)_** +**5.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario)** The reference case only takes into account existing international energy and envi- @@ -13002,51 +10005,37 @@ nomic and energy indicators forward to 2050. This provides a baseline for compar son with the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. -**_5.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario_** +**5.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario** The first alternative scenario aims to achieve an ambitious emissions reduction to -zero by 2050 and a global energy-related CO 2 emissions budget between 2015 and - +zero by 2050 and a global energy-related CO[^2]: emissions budget between 2015 and 2050 of around 590 Gt. The scenario is close to the assumptions and results of the -Advanced E[R] scenario published in 2015 by Greenpeace (Teske et  al. 2015 ). - +Advanced E[R] scenario published in 2015 by Greenpeace (Teske et  al. [^2015]:). However, the scenario includes an updated base year, more coherent regional devel- - opments of energy intensities, and reconsidered trajectories and shares of renewable - energy resource (RES) deployment. The 2.0  °C Scenario represents a far more - likely pathway than the 1.5 °C Scenario, because the 2.0 °C case takes into account - unavoidable delays due to political, economic, and societal processes and - stakeholders. ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 95 ``` -**_5.1.3 The 1.5 °C Scenario_** - -The second alternative scenario aims to achieve a global energy-related CO 2 emis- +**5.1.3 The 1.5 °C Scenario** +The second alternative scenario aims to achieve a global energy-related CO[^2]: emis- sion budget of around 450 Gt, accumulated between 2015 and 2050. The 1.5  °C Scenario requires immediate action to realize all available options. It is a technical - pathway, not a political prognosis. It refers to technically possible measures and - options without taking into account societal risks or barriers. Efficiency and renew- - able potentials must be deployed even more quickly than in the 2.0  °C Scenario. - Furthermore, avoiding inefficient technologies and behaviours are essential strate- - gies for developing regions in this time period. **5.2 Scenario World Regions and Clusters** @@ -13056,27 +10045,17 @@ The regional implementation of the long-term energy scenarios is defined accordi to the breakdown of the ten world regions of the IEA WEO 2016 (IEA 2016a, b). This approach has been chosen because the IEA also provides the most comprehen- - sive global energy statistics and, in contrast to the regional breakdown of the IEA - WEO 2017, it is also consistent with the Energy [R]evolution study series. Table 5.1 - provides a country breakdown of the ten world regions considered in the scenarios. - -``` Regional conditions play an important role in the layout of the scenario path- -``` ways. Therefore, scenario building tries to take into account important factors, such - as current demand and supply structures, RES potentials, urbanization rates, and as - far as possible, societal and behavioural factors. The following sections provide - some regional information. Statistical data for the energy systems in the regions can - be found in Sect. 5.3. -**_5.2.1 OECD North America_** +**5.2.1 OECD North America** The energy system in OECD North America (USA, Canada, and Mexico) is domi- @@ -13102,8 +10081,7 @@ supply in OECD North America. They will be supplemented by hydro power (mainly in Canada) and also concentrated solar power (CSP). The high potential for -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 96 @@ -13119,7 +10097,7 @@ enter the market earlier and at a faster rate than in many other world regions. biomass potentials (residues) mean that biofuels could play important roles as -climate- neutral fuels to bridge the gap until new powertrain technologies dominate +climate-neutral fuels to bridge the gap until new powertrain technologies dominate **Table 5.1** World regions used in the scenarios @@ -13200,7 +10178,6 @@ United Arab Emirates, Yemen ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 97 ``` @@ -13210,53 +10187,35 @@ and biogas will be required as alternative fuels until the (direct or indirect) cation of the heat sector is accomplished. -**_5.2.2 Latin America_** +**5.2.2 Latin America** Latin America’s energy system is dominated by Brazil, which accounts for around half the region’s energy demand. In the reference (5.0 °C) scenario, this region has a -particularly high demand for electrification and a strong increase in CO 2 emissions - +particularly high demand for electrification and a strong increase in CO[^2]: emissions per capita. Latin America has the highest urbanization rate of all non-OECD regions. This provides opportunities for efficiency measures and the large-scale electrification - of the heat and transport sectors based on renewable resources. Latin America has a - high overall potential for the use of renewable energies (Herreras Martínez et  al. - -2015 ) and the largest biomass potential of all regions. It already meets more than - +[^2015]:) and the largest biomass potential of all regions. It already meets more than 60% of its power demand from renewable sources, and higher shares are the focus of - -research (Nascimento et al. 2017 ; Barbosa et al. 2017 ; Gils et al. 2017 ). However, in - +research (Nascimento et al. [^2017]:; Barbosa et al. [^2017]:; Gils et al. [^2017]:). However, in many studies, heat and transport demands are not integrated into the assessments, - even though the region has a large potential for renewable heat and decarbonised - transport. Given the abundance of biomass, there is potential for generating more - -than 12 EJ from residues (Seidenberger et al. 2008 ). Biomass will also play a signifi- - +than 12 EJ from residues (Seidenberger et al. [^2008]:). Biomass will also play a signifi- cant role in the industry sector. Because the region has a long experience of biofuels, - they will play a major role in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, especially in Brazil, - -where bioethanol for transport is already competitive (Lora and Andrade 2009 ; La - -Rovere et al. 2011 ; Nass et al. 2007 ). However, the high urbanization rate in Latin - +where bioethanol for transport is already competitive (Lora and Andrade [^2009]:; La +Rovere et al. [^2011]:; Nass et al. [^2007]:). However, the high urbanization rate in Latin America means there is also an opportunity to develop electromobility early. In the - power sector, the use of biomass from residues will help to balance the increasing - share of variable renewable energy from the excellent solar and wind resources. Grid +extensions will contribute to inter-regional stability (Nascimento et al. [^2017]:). -extensions will contribute to inter-regional stability (Nascimento et al. 2017 ). - -**_5.2.3 OECD Europe_** +**5.2.3 OECD Europe** The OECD Europe region includes countries with quite different energy supply @@ -13282,8 +10241,7 @@ southern countries. Most European countries, particularly European Union (EU) member countries, already have policies and market mechanisms for the -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 98 @@ -13305,7 +10263,7 @@ current lines has been described in many studies and still represents a promisin option in the long term, despite the currently difficult political conditions. -**_5.2.4 Eastern Europe/Eurasia_** +**5.2.4 Eastern Europe/Eurasia** The Eastern Europe/Eurasia region includes some eastern EU member countries that @@ -13333,7 +10291,7 @@ distribution of economic wealth are some of the major challenges in this region. far, only low expansion rates for renewable energies have been achieved in the region. -**_5.2.5 The Middle East_** +**5.2.5 The Middle East** The Middle East consists of a series of oil-dependent countries, all of which have @@ -13359,18 +10317,17 @@ combined heat and power generation (CHP), which is primarily seen as a transi- tion technology to provide the most efficient use of the remaining fossil fuels and -low- value biomass wastes. However, because the Middle East has extraordinary +low-value biomass wastes. However, because the Middle East has extraordinary -solar and wind potentials (Nematollahi et al. 2016 ; Hess 2018 ), the solar market is +solar and wind potentials (Nematollahi et al. [^2016]:; Hess [^2018]:), the solar market is ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 99 ``` -taking off. Projects with a capacity of 11 GW are planned for 2018 (MESIA 2018 ). +taking off. Projects with a capacity of 11 GW are planned for 2018 (MESIA [^2018]:). With the extraordinarily high number of full-load hours, there is also the potential @@ -13382,7 +10339,7 @@ the 1.5 °C Scenarios. Therefore, the Middle East is a model solar and hydrogen region. -**_5.2.6 Africa_** +**5.2.6 Africa** Africa is a very heterogeneous region, both economically and geographically. One @@ -13402,7 +10359,7 @@ outstanding solar irradiation, an excellent renewable energy source. Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized by low urbanization and a lack of access to electricity for -two-thirds of its people (IEA 2014 ). Its energy supply is characterized by a high +two-thirds of its people (IEA [^2014]:). Its energy supply is characterized by a high share of low-efficiency forms of generation, such as traditional biomass use. There @@ -13410,19 +10367,19 @@ is a general lack of energy services. Modernizing traditional biomass use could to significant reductions in energy demand, while maintaining or improving energy -services (van der Zwaan et al. 2018 ). A broad variety of renewable energy sources, +services (van der Zwaan et al. [^2018]:). A broad variety of renewable energy sources, including biomass, hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind, have great potential. However, it will be a major challenge to find the investment required to tap these -power sources under the present economic conditions (van der Zwaan et al. 2018 ). +power sources under the present economic conditions (van der Zwaan et al. [^2018]:). The picture is somewhat different in South Africa, which has a coal-based energy system and a comparatively stable and well-connected electricity grid, with access -to electricity for more than 85% of its population (IEA 2014 ). The dependence on +to electricity for more than 85% of its population (IEA [^2014]:). The dependence on traditional biomass is extensive in the household and commerce sectors. Over 700 @@ -13434,7 +10391,7 @@ provide multiple advantages. The introduction of more-efficient technologies, ev those as simple as improved cooking stoves (with an average efficiency of 25%) or -biogas stoves (with an average efficiency of 65%) (IEA 2014 ), will reduce the bio- +biogas stoves (with an average efficiency of 65%) (IEA [^2014]:), will reduce the bio- mass input and thus the primary energy demand. This will also alleviate the heavy @@ -13450,12 +10407,11 @@ in 2050, while biomass’s share will decrease and be partially replaced by elec power and solar heat. -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 100 -**_5.2.7 Non-OECD Asia_** +**5.2.7 Non-OECD Asia** The Non-OECD Asia region includes all the developing countries of Asia, except @@ -13487,7 +10443,7 @@ cal development, even though the outlooks for individual countries deviate widel from the average. -**_5.2.8 India_** +**5.2.8 India** India has a fast-growing population of over 1.2 billion people and is the world’s @@ -13519,7 +10475,7 @@ and overall electricity demand. It is also expected that the need for mobility i will increase rapidly and more strongly than in other regions of the world. -**_5.2.9 China_** +**5.2.9 China** China has great potential renewable energy resources, especially for the generation @@ -13530,7 +10486,6 @@ the east and southeast. Photovoltaic power generation could play an important ro ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 101 ``` @@ -13542,7 +10497,7 @@ China will face further large increases in energy demand in all sectors of the e system. Chinese economic prosperity has mainly been underpinned by coal, which -provides over two-thirds of China’s primary energy supply today (IEA WEO 2014 ). +provides over two-thirds of China’s primary energy supply today (IEA WEO [^2014]:). The increase in electricity use due to higher electrification rates will be a major fac- @@ -13552,13 +10507,12 @@ transport sectors. In China, nearly all households are connected to the electric grid. However, according to WEO 2014, about 450 million Chinese still relied on -the traditional use of biomass for cooking in 2012. China has pledged to reduce CO 2 - +the traditional use of biomass for cooking in 2012. China has pledged to reduce CO2 emissions before 2030, and already has some ambitious political targets for renew- able energy deployment. -**_5.2.10 OECD Pacific_** +**5.2.10 OECD Pacific** OECD Pacific consists of Japan, New Zealand, the peninsula of South Korea, and @@ -13586,7 +10540,7 @@ for renewable energies, in particular PV, have risen sharply. **5.3 Key Assumptions for Scenarios** -**_5.3.1 Population Growth_** +**5.3.1 Population Growth** Population growth is an important driver of energy demand, directly and through its @@ -13594,7 +10548,7 @@ impact on economic growth and development. The assumptions made in this study up to 2050 are based on United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projec- -tions for population growth (UNDP 2017 (medium variant)). Table 5.2 shows that +tions for population growth (UNDP [^2017]: (medium variant)). Table 5.2 shows that according to the UNDP, the world’s population is expected to grow by 0.8% per @@ -13606,63 +10560,41 @@ growth will slow over this period, from 1.1% per year during 2015–2020 to 0.6% per year during 2040–2050. From a regional perspective, Africa’s population growth -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 102 will continue to be the most rapid (on average 2.2%/year), followed by the Middle - East (1.3%/year). In contrast, in China and OECD Pacific, a population decline of - about 0.1%/year. is expected. The populations in OECD Europe and OECD North - America are expected to increase slowly through to 2050. The proportion of the - population living in today’s non-OECD countries will increase from its current 81% - to 85% in 2050. China’s contribution to the world population will drop from 19% - today to 15% in 2050. Africa will remain the region with the highest population - growth, leading to a share of 26% of world population in 2050. Satisfying the energy - needs of a growing population in the developing regions of the world in an environ- - mentally friendly manner is the fundamental challenge in achieving a sustainable - global energy supply. -**_5.3.2 GDP Development_** +**5.3.2 GDP Development** Economic growth is a key driver of energy demand. Since 1971, each 1% increase - in the global GDP has been accompanied by a 0.6% increase in primary energy - consumption. Therefore, the decoupling of energy demand and GDP growth is a - prerequisite for the rapid decarbonisation of the global energy industry. In this - study, the economic growth in the model regions is measured in GDP, expressed in - terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. Purchasing power parities - compare the costs in different currencies of fixed baskets of traded and non-traded - goods and services. GDP PPP is a widely used measure of living standards and is - independent of currency exchange rates, which might not reflect a currency’s true - value (purchasing power) within a country. Therefore, GDP PPP is an important - basis of comparison when analysing the main drivers of energy demand or when - comparing the energy intensities of countries. **Table 5.2** Population growth projections (in millions) ``` -Million capita 2015 2020 20252030 2035 20402045 2050 +Million capita 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` Change @@ -13679,61 +10611,39 @@ Eurasia ``` Middle East 234 254 276 295 314 331 348 363 56% Latin America 506 531 552 571 587 599 609 616 22% -China 1405 1433 14471450 1442 14261403 1374 −2% -Africa 1194 1353 15221704 1897 21002312 2528 112% -India 1309 1383 14521513 1565 16051636 1659 27% -Non-OECD Asia 1132 1203 12691329 1382 14281467 1499 32% -Global 7383 7795 81858551 8893 92109504 9772 32% +China 1405 1433 1447 1450 1442 1426 1403 1374 −2% +Africa 1194 1353 1522 1704 1897 2100 2312 2528 112% +India 1309 1383 1452 1513 1565 1605 1636 1659 27% +Non-OECD Asia 1132 1203 1269 1329 1382 1428 1467 1499 32% +Global 7383 7795 8185 8551 8893 9210 9504 9772 32% ``` Source: UN World Population Prospects—2017 revision, medium variant ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 103 ``` -``` Although PPP assessments are still relatively imprecise compared with statistics -``` based on national incomes, trade, and national price indices, it is argued that they - provide a better basis for global scenario development. Therefore, all the data on - economic development in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016 (WEO 2016a, b) - refer to purchasing-power-adjusted GDP in international US$ (2015).  However, - because WEO 2016 only covers the time period up to 2040, projections for 2040– - 2050 in the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios are based on German Aerospace - Center (DLR) estimates, which are mainly used to extrapolate the GDP trends in the - world regions used in our modelling. - -``` GDP growth in all regions is expected to slow gradually over the coming decades -``` (Table 5.3). It is assumed that world GDP will grow on average by 3.2% per year - over the period 2015–2050. China, India, and Africa are expected to grow faster - than other regions, followed by the Middle East, Africa, other non-OECD Asia, and - Latin America. The growth of the Chinese economy will slow as it becomes more - mature, but it will nonetheless become the economically strongest region in the - world in PPP terms by 2020. The GDP in OECD Europe and OECD Pacific is - assumed to grow by 1.3–1.5% per year over the projection period, while economic - growth in OECD North America is expected to be slightly higher (2.1%). The - -OECD’s share of global PPP- adjusted GDP will decrease from 45% in 2015 to 28% - +OECD’s share of global PPP-adjusted GDP will decrease from 45% in 2015 to 28% in 2050. **Table 5.3** GDP development projections based on average annual growth rates for 2015–2040 @@ -13796,64 +10706,37 @@ Asia 10,061 11,361 14,577 17,794 21,835 25,876 30,055 34,234 240% ``` ``` -Global 115,108136,578 166,646 196,715231,758266,801306,519346,236 201% +Global 115,108 136,578 166,646 196,715 231,758 266,801 306,519 346,236 201% ``` -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 104 -**_5.3.3 Technology Cost Projections_** +**5.3.3 Technology Cost Projections** The parameterization of the models requires many assumptions about the develop- - ment of the particular characteristics of technologies, such as specific investment - and fuel costs. Therefore, because long-term projections are highly uncertain, we - must define plausible and transparent assumptions based on background informa- - tion and up-to-date statistical and technical information. - -``` The speed of an energy system transition also depends on overcoming economic -``` barriers. These largely relate to the relationships between the costs of renewable - technologies and their fossil and nuclear counterparts. For our scenarios, the projec- - tion of these costs is vital in making valid comparisons of energy systems. However, - there have been significant limitations to these projections in the past in relation to - investment and fuel costs. - -``` In addition, efficiency measures also generate costs which are usually difficult to -``` determine depending on technical, structural and economic boundary conditions. In - the context of this study, we have therefore assumed uniform average costs of 3 ct - per avoided kWh of electricity consumption in our cost accounting. - -``` During the last decade, fossil fuel prices have seen huge fluctuations. Figure 5.1 -``` shows oil prices since 1997. After extremely high oil prices in 2012, we are cur- - -rently in a low-price phase. Gas prices saw similar development (IEA 2017 ). - +rently in a low-price phase. Gas prices saw similar development (IEA [^2017]:). Therefore, fossil fuel price projections have also seen considerable variations (IEA - -2013 , 2017) and have had a considerable influence on scenario results ever since. - -``` +[^2013]:, [^2017]:) and have had a considerable influence on scenario results ever since. Although in the past, oil-exporting countries provided the best oil price projec- -``` tions, institutional price projections have become increasingly accurate, with the - -International Energy Agency (IEA) leading the way in 2018 (Roland Berger 2018 ). +International Energy Agency (IEA) leading the way in 2018 (Roland Berger [^2018]:). ``` 0 @@ -13896,8 +10779,6 @@ International Energy Agency (IEA) leading the way in 2018 (Roland Berger 2018 ). 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 ``` Production (Mb/d) Price (USD 2013/b) - -``` WEO 2000 WEO 2001 WEO 2002 @@ -13916,79 +10797,49 @@ WEO 2014 WEO 2015 WEO 2016 Actual -``` + **Fig. 5.1** Historic development and projections of oil prices (bottom lines) and historical world oil -production and projections (top lines) by the IEA according to Wachtmeister et al. ( 2018 ) +production and projections (top lines) by the IEA according to Wachtmeister et al. ([^2018]:) ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 105 ``` An evaluation of the oil price projections of the IEA since 2000 by Wachtmeister - -et  al. ( 2018 ) showed that price projections have varied significantly over time. - +et  al. ([^2018]:) showed that price projections have varied significantly over time. Whereas the IEA’s oil production projections seem comparatively accurate, oil price - projections showed errors of 40–60%, even when made for only 10  years ahead. - Between 2007 and 2017, the IEA price projections for 2030 varied from $70 to - $140 per barrel, providing significant uncertainty regarding future costs in the sce- - narios. Despite this limitation, the IEA provides a comprehensive set of price - projections. Therefore, we based our scenario assumptions on these projections, as - described below. - -``` However, because most renewable energy technologies provide energy without -``` fuel costs, the projections of investment costs become more important than fuel cost - projections, and this limits the impact of errors in the fuel price projections. It is - only for biomass that the cost of feedstock remains a crucial economic factor for - renewables. Today, these costs range from negative costs for waste wood (based on - credit for the waste disposal costs avoided), through inexpensive residual materials, - to comparatively expensive energy crops. Because bioenergy holds significant mar- - ket shares in all sectors in many regions, a detailed assessment of future price pro- - jections is provided below. - -``` Investment cost projections also pose challenges for scenario development. -``` Available short-term projections of investment costs depend largely on the data - available for existing and planned projects. Learning curves are most commonly - used to assess the future development of investment costs as a function of their - -future installations and markets (McDonald and Schrattenholzer 2001 ; Rubin et al. - -2015 ). Therefore, the reliability of cost projections largely depends on the uncer- - +future installations and markets (McDonald and Schrattenholzer [^2001]:; Rubin et al. +[^2015]:). Therefore, the reliability of cost projections largely depends on the uncer- tainty of future markets and the availability of historical data. - -``` Fossil technologies provide a large cost data set featuring well-established mar- -``` + kets and large annual installations. They are also mature technologies, where many cost reduction potentials have already been exploited. -``` For renewable technologies, the picture is more mixed. For example, hydro -``` + power is, like fossil fuels, well established and provides reliable data on investment costs. Other technologies, such as PV and wind, are currently experiencing tremen- @@ -14001,7 +10852,7 @@ projects. However, their future markets are not easily predicted, as can be seen the evolution of IEA market projections over recent years in the World Energy -Outlook series (compare for example IEA 2007 , 2014, 2017). For PV and wind, +Outlook series (compare for example IEA [^2007]:, [^2014]:, [^2017]:). For PV and wind, small differences in cost assumptions will lead to large deviations in the overall @@ -14019,8 +10870,7 @@ transformed energy system but are not yet widely available. Hydrogen production, ocean power, and synthetic fuels might deliver important technology options in the -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 106 @@ -14028,90 +10878,55 @@ long term after 2040, but their cost reduction potential cannot be assessed with certainty today. -``` Thus, cost assumptions are a crucial factor in evaluating scenarios. Because costs -``` + are an external input into the model and are not internally calculated, we assume the same progressive cost developments for all scenarios. In the next sections, we pres- ent a detailed overview of our assumptions for power and renewable heat technolo- -gies, including the investment and fuel costs, and the potential CO 2 costs in the - +gies, including the investment and fuel costs, and the potential CO[^2]: costs in the scenarios. **5.3.3.1 Power and CHP Technologies** The focus of cost calculations in our scenario modelling is the power sector. We - compared the specific investment costs estimated in previous studies (Teske et al. - -2012 , 2015), which were based on a variety of studies, including the European - -Commission-funded NEEDS project (NEEDS 2009 ), projections from the European - -Renewable Energy Council (Zervos et al. 2010 ), investment cost projections by the - -IEA ( 2014 ), and current cost assumptions by IRENA and IEA (IEA 2016b). We - +[^2012]:, [^2015]:), which were based on a variety of studies, including the European +Commission-funded NEEDS project (NEEDS [^2009]:), projections from the European +Renewable Energy Council (Zervos et al. [^2010]:), investment cost projections by the +IEA ([^2014]:), and current cost assumptions by IRENA and IEA (IEA 2016b). We found that investment costs generally converged, except for PV. Therefore, for con- - sistency reasons, the investment costs and operation and maintenance costs for the - power sector are based primarily on the investment costs within WEO 2016 (IEA - 2016b) up to 2040, including their regional disaggregation. We extended the projec- - tions until 2050 based on the trends in the preceding decade. - -``` For renewable power production, we used investment costs from the 450  ppm -``` scenario from IEA 2016b. For technologies not distinguished in the IEA report - (such as geothermal CHP), we used cost assumptions based on our own research, - -from the Energy [R]evolution Scenario 2015 (Teske et al. 2015 ). As the cost assump- - +from the Energy [R]evolution Scenario 2015 (Teske et al. [^2015]:). As the cost assump- tions for PV systems by the IEA do not reflect recent cost degressions, we based our - -assumptions on a more recent analysis by Steurer et al. ( 2018 ), which projects lower - +assumptions on a more recent analysis by Steurer et al. ([^2018]:), which projects lower investment costs for PV in 2050 than does the IEA. The costs for onshore and off- - shore wind in Europe were adapted from the same source, in order to reflect more - recent data. The cost assumptions for hydrogen production come from our own - -analysis in the PlanDelyKaD project (Michalski et al. 2017 ). Table 5.4 summarizes - +analysis in the PlanDelyKaD project (Michalski et al. [^2017]:). Table 5.4 summarizes the cost trends for power technologies derived from the assumptions discussed - above for OECD Europe. It is important to note that the cost reductions are, in real- - ity, not a function of time, but of cumulative capacity (production of units), so - dynamic market development is required to achieve a significant reduction in spe- - cific investment costs. Therefore, we might underestimate the costs of renewables in - the reference (5.0  °C) scenario compared with the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. - However, our approach is conservative when we compare the reference scenario - with the 2.0 °C or 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cost assumptions for the other nine regions - are in the same range, but differ slightly for different renewable energy technolo- - gies. Fossil fuel power plants have a limited potential for cost reductions because - they are at an advanced stage of technology and market development. Gas and oil ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 107 ``` @@ -14176,8 +10991,7 @@ Hydrogen production $/kW 1380 1220 920 700 570 aCosts for a system with solar multiple of two and thermal storage for 8 h of turbine operation bValues apply to both run-of-the-river and reservoir hydro power -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 108 @@ -14190,7 +11004,7 @@ electrolysis. With electrolysers just emerging on larger scale on the markets, t considerable cost reduction potential. Based on the Plan-DelyKaD studies (Michalski -et al. 2017 ), we assume that costs could decrease to $570/kW in the long term. +et al. [^2017]:), we assume that costs could decrease to $570/kW in the long term. **5.3.3.2 Heating Technologies** @@ -14252,19 +11066,15 @@ Residential $/kW 1060 1010 910 800 680 ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 109 ``` heating purposes at investment costs ranging from €500/kWth (shallow) to €3000/ - kWth (deep), with the costs strongly dependent on the drilling depth. The cost reduc- - tion potential is assumed to be around 30% by 2050. -``` Heat pumps typically provide hot water or space heat for heating systems with -``` + relatively low supply temperatures, or they supplement other heating technologies. Therefore, they are currently mainly used for small-scale residential applications. @@ -14273,9 +11083,8 @@ Costs currently cover a large band-width and are expected to decrease by only 20 to $1450/kW by 2050. -``` For biomass and solar collectors, we assume significant differences between the -``` + sectors. There is a broad portfolio of modern technologies for heat production from biomass, ranging from small-scale single-room stoves to heating or CHP plants on @@ -14306,28 +11115,20 @@ market for such grid-connected solar systems, we assume there will be a cost red tion potential until 2050. -**_5.3.4 Fuel Cost Projections_** +**5.3.4 Fuel Cost Projections** **5.3.4.1 Fossil Fuels** Although fossil fuel price projections have seen considerable variations, as described - above, we based our fuel price assumptions up to 2040 on the WEO 2017 (IEA - -2017 ). Beyond 2040, we extrapolated from the price developments between 2035 - +[^2017]:). Beyond 2040, we extrapolated from the price developments between 2035 and 2040. Even though these price projections are highly speculative, they provide - a set of prices consistent to our investment assumptions. Fuel prices for nuclear - energy are based on the values in the Energy [R]evolution report 2015 (Teske et al. - -2015 ), corrected by the cumulative inflation rate for the Eurozone of 1.82% between - +[^2015]:), corrected by the cumulative inflation rate for the Eurozone of 1.82% between 2012 and 2015 (Table 5.6). -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 110 @@ -14335,7 +11136,7 @@ energy are based on the values in the Energy [R]evolution report 2015 (Teske et Biomass prices depend on the quality of the biomass (residues or energy crops) and -the regional supply and demand. The variability is large. Lamers et al. ( 2015 ) found +the regional supply and demand. The variability is large. Lamers et al. ([^2015]:) found a price range of €4–4.8/GJ for forest residues in Europe in 2020, whereas agricul- @@ -14345,11 +11146,11 @@ pellets from €6/GJ in Malaysia to 8.8€/GJ in Brazil. IRENA modelled a cost s curve on a global level for 2030 (see Fig. 5.2), ranging from $3/GJ for a potential of -35 EJ/year. up to $8–10/GJ for a potential up to 90–100 EJ/year (IRENA 2014 ) (and +35 EJ/year. up to $8–10/GJ for a potential up to 90–100 EJ/year (IRENA [^2014]:) (and up to $17/GJ for an potential extending to 147 EJ). -**Table 5.6** Development projections for fossil fuel prices in $2015 (IEA 2017 ) +**Table 5.6** Development projections for fossil fuel prices in $2015 (IEA [^2017]:) ``` Development projections for fossil fuel prices @@ -14383,112 +11184,65 @@ Nuclear All $/GJ 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 111 ``` -``` IRENA projected regional supply costs for liquid and other biomass sources in -``` 2030 based on a global biomass use of around 108 EJ, using current primary bio- - mass prices as a proxy (see Table 5.7). Liquid biofuels demand higher prices because - of their production and transformation processes; ‘other biomass’ includes primary - biomass, such as fuel wood, energy crops, and residues. - -``` The prices cited above hold true for modern biomass applications. Traditional -``` biomass use is still often based on firewood or other biomass, which is acquired - without a price (and with the labour cost not considered). No price data are yet - available for a considerable range of residues. Therefore, the average primary bio- - mass costs across the complete energy system in many regions are lower than the - available market prices for biomass commodities. Consequently, today’s market - prices represent the upper limit of today’s biomass costs. - -``` Therefore, for our scenarios, we assumed a lower average biomass price in all -``` regions, starting from the lower end of the cost supply curve at around $7.50/GJ for - OECD regions, with predominantly modern applications. For Africa, Latin America, - and Asia, including Russia, which have abundant biomass residue potential, current - prices were assumed to be $3/GJ. For the remaining regions (the Middle East, and - Eastern Europe), we assumed $5/GJ. - -``` The prices for primary biomass will increase proportionately to the IRENA ref- -``` erence price for ‘other biomass’ by 2030, following the increasing uptake of modern -**Fig. 5.2** Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 (IRENA 2014 ) - -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways +**Fig. 5.2** Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 (IRENA [^2014]:) +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 112 biomass technologies and increasing trade, representing a further biomass potential - uptake along the supply curve. For the period until 2050, we consider that biomass - prices will be stable. The prices calculated by IRENA are valid for a demand of - 108 EJ/year. The biomass demand considered in this study never exceeds a total of - 100 EJ/year. However, the international trade in biomass may heavily influence bio- - mass prices in the future, representing a significant source of uncertainty in our - assumptions. -**_5.3.5 CO 2 Costs_** - -The WEO 2017 (IEA 2017 ) considers the future price of CO 2 in the power and +**5.3.5 CO**[^2]: **Costs** +The WEO 2017 (IEA [^2017]:) considers the future price of CO[^2]: in the power and industry sectors. There is considerable variation between the current policy sce- - nario, the new policy scenario, and the 450 ppm scenario, not only in value, but also - in regional range. Various studies have indicated a close relationship between decar- - -bonisation and the implicit or explicit CO 2 price (regardless of the most efficient - +bonisation and the implicit or explicit CO[^2]: price (regardless of the most efficient implementation measure). On the one hand, the carbon price is a precondition for a - -decarbonisation of the energy sector (Lucena et  al. 2016 ), but on the other hand, - -decarbonisation may limit the costs of CO 2 emissions if an efficient pricing measure - -is in place (Jacobson et al. 2017 ). Because the scenarios in this study rely heavily on - -effective reductions in CO 2 emissions, we used the CO 2 prices of the 450 ppm sce- - +decarbonisation of the energy sector (Lucena et  al. [^2016]:), but on the other hand, +decarbonisation may limit the costs of CO[^2]: emissions if an efficient pricing measure +is in place (Jacobson et al. [^2017]:). Because the scenarios in this study rely heavily on +effective reductions in CO[^2]: emissions, we used the CO[^2]: prices of the 450 ppm sce- nario in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. In the reference case, we deviated from the - -WEO 2017, which applies rather low CO 2 emission costs. Instead, we applied CO 2 - +WEO 2017, which applies rather low CO[^2]: emission costs. Instead, we applied CO2 costs equivalent to the cost of the resulting climate damage. Based on existing stud- +ies of fossil-energy-induced damage (Anthoff and Tol [^2013]:; Stern et al. [^2006]:), we +assumed that $78/t of CO[^2]: is a plausible cost estimate in the wide range of estimates -ies of fossil-energy-induced damage (Anthoff and Tol 2013 ; Stern et al. 2006 ), we +of the social costs of CO[^2]: emissions (Table 5.8). -assumed that $78/t of CO 2 is a plausible cost estimate in the wide range of estimates - -of the social costs of CO 2 emissions (Table 5.8). - -**Table 5.7** Biomass price projections for 2030 at 108 EJ of the biomass demand (IRENA 2014 ) - -``` +**Table 5.7** Biomass price projections for 2030 at 108 EJ of the biomass demand (IRENA [^2014]:) Liquid biofuel reference price Other biomass reference price US $/GJ US $/GJ Africa 36 10 @@ -14498,91 +11252,60 @@ North America 34 15 OECD Pacific 61 15 Latin America 59 12 World 42 11 -``` + ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 113 ``` **5.4 Energy Scenario Narratives and Assumptions for World** - **Regions** The scenario-building process involves many assumptions and explicit, but also - implicit, narratives about how future economies and societies, and ultimately energy - systems, may develop under the overall objective of ‘deep and rapid decarbonisa- - tion’ by 2050. These narratives depend on three main strategic pillars: -- Efficiency improvement and demand reduction: stringent implementation of - -``` +• Efficiency improvement and demand reduction: stringent implementation of technical and structural efficiency improvements in energy demand and supply. These will lead to a continuous reduction in both final and primary energy con- sumption. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, these measures must be supplemented with responsible energy consumption behaviour by the consumer. -``` -- Deployment of renewable energies: massive implementation of new technolo- - -``` +• Deployment of renewable energies: massive implementation of new technolo- gies for the generation of power and heat in all sectors. These will include vari- able renewable energies from solar and wind, which have experienced considerable cost reductions in recent years, but also more expensive technolo- gies, such as large-scale geothermal and ocean energy, small hydro power, and CSP. -``` -- Sector coupling: stringent direct electrification of heating and transport technolo- - -``` +• Sector coupling: stringent direct electrification of heating and transport technolo- gies in order to integrate renewable energy in the most efficient way. Because this strategy has its limitations, it will be complemented by the massive use of hydrogen (generated by electrolysis) or other synthetic energy carriers. -``` -``` + Some alternative or probably complementary future technical options are explic- -``` itly excluded from the scenarios. In particular, those options with large uncertainties - with respect to technical, economic, societal, and environmental risks, such as large - hydro and nuclear power plants, unsustainable biomass use, carbon capture and - storage (CCS), and geoengineering, are not considered on the supply side as mitiga- - tion measures or—in the case of hydro—not expanded in the future. The sustainable - use of biomass will partly substitute for fossil fuels in all energy sectors. However, - this use will be limited to an annual global energy potential of less than 100 EJ per - year for sustainability reasons, according to the calculations of Seidenberger et al. - -(2008), Thrän et al. ( 2011 ), and Schueler et al. ( 2013 ). - -``` +([^2008]:), Thrän et al. ([^2011]:), and Schueler et al. ([^2013]:). The transformations described in the two alternative scenarios are constrained, to -``` a certain degree, by current short- to medium-term investment planning, as described - in the reference case, because most technical and structural options to change the - demand or supply side require years of planning and construction. This means that -**Table 5.8** CO 2 cost assumptions in the scenarios - -``` -CO 2 costs +**Table 5.8** CO[^2]: cost assumptions in the scenarios +CO[^2]: costs 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -Reference All regions $/t CO 2 0 42 69 78 78 -2.0 °C and 1.5 °C OECD Economies $/t CO 2 0 62 87.6 138 189.0 -Other regions $/t CO 2 0 42 69.5 124 177.5 -``` -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways +Reference All regions $/t CO2[^0][^42][^69][^78][^78] +2.0 °C and 1.5 °C OECD Economies $/t CO[^2]: [^0]: [^62]: 87.6 [^138]: 189.0 +Other regions $/t CO[^2]: [^0]: [^42]: 69.5 [^124]: 177.5 +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 114 @@ -14598,9 +11321,9 @@ development implausible). This is the case for the IEA estimates of demand devel opment in some regions and sectors, and it is partly true for investments in fossil- -fuel- based heat and power generation. +fuel-based heat and power generation. -**_5.4.1 Efficiency and Energy Intensities_** +**5.4.1 Efficiency and Energy Intensities** It is obvious that a major increase in energy efficiency is the backbone of each ambi- @@ -14610,7 +11333,7 @@ for energy conversion and infrastructure investment. The development of the futu global energy demand is determined by three key factors: -- Population growth, which affects the number of people consuming energy or +• Population growth, which affects the number of people consuming energy or ``` using energy services. Associated with this, increasing access to energy services @@ -14618,14 +11341,14 @@ in developing countries and emerging economies is an additional influencing factor, bearing in mind that this could mean power grid access or the implemen- tation of isolated, usually small-scale, local power systems. ``` -- Economic development, which is commonly measured as GDP. In general, GDP +• Economic development, which is commonly measured as GDP. In general, GDP ``` growth triggers an increase in energy demand, directly via additional industrial activities and indirectly via an increase in private consumption arising from the higher incomes associated with a prospering economy. ``` -- Energy intensity, which is a measure of how much final energy is required in the +• Energy intensity, which is a measure of how much final energy is required in the ``` industrial sector to produce a unit of GDP. Efficiency measures help to reduce @@ -14651,74 +11374,48 @@ the successful implementation of measures to intensify required investments in e cient technologies or to change consumer behaviour. -``` The assumptions made about the potential to further increase the economic and -``` + technical efficiency in all sectors are based on various external studies. However, the lower benchmarks for the assumptions on efficiency potentials are derived from -the Current Policies scenario of the IEA WEO 2017 (IEA 2017 ). The upper bench- +the Current Policies scenario of the IEA WEO 2017 (IEA [^2017]:). The upper bench- ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 115 ``` -marks for efficiency potentials per world region are taken from Graus et al. ( 2011 ), - -Kermeli et al. ( 2014 ), and recently published low-energy-demand scenarios devel- - -oped by Grubler et al. ( 2018 ). +marks for efficiency potentials per world region are taken from Graus et al. ([^2011]:), +Kermeli et al. ([^2014]:), and recently published low-energy-demand scenarios devel- +oped by Grubler et al. ([^2018]:). **5.4.1.1 Industrial Electricity Demand** ‘Industrial electricity demand’ refers to many appliances of different sizes and pur- - poses. Large potentials for saving electricity have been identified in various studies - in most branches of industry. This particularly applies to electric drives for com- - pressed air, pumps, and fans. The scenario model approach distinguishes between - electric appliances and power-to-heat devices for space and process heating. The - consumption of electricity per GDP varies widely between regions, depending on - their industrial structures and efficiency standards. The trajectories for industrial - electricity demands are constrained by the abovementioned lower and upper bench- - marks and aim for similar electricity uses per $GDP in the industrial sectors in all - regions by 2050. The resulting trajectories for OECD and non-OECD countries are - shown in Table 5.9. The average global electricity demand for electric appliances in - ‘industry’ (without power-to-heat) will decrease from 55 kWh/$1000 GDP in 2015 - to 36 kWh/$1000 in 2050 in the reference case, but to 24 kWh/$1000 in the 2.0 °C - Scenario and 23 kWh/$1000 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. However, the increased electri- - fication of industrial heat in both alternative scenarios almost cancels out the greater - efficiency increases in those two scenarios when compared with the reference case. - The average power-to-heat share in industry will increase in this period from 6% to - 34% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 37% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C - Scenario, the annual electricity demand for industrial electrical appliances will be - around 5% lower than in the 2.0  °C Scenario between 2020 and 2025, and up to - 10% lower between 2025 and 2035. However, between 2035 and 2050, the electric- - ity demand for electric appliances in the industry sector converges under the two - scenarios. **Table 5.9** Assumed average development of specific (per $GDP) electricity use for electrical @@ -14740,8 +11437,7 @@ Non-OECD regions 65.8 60.9 49.2 42.9 37.2 32.9 28.3 24.8 −62% OECD regions 42.8 40.1 33.4 27.4 24.3 22.4 20.7 20.0 −53% Non-OECD regions 65.8 58.6 46.4 39.8 34.4 30.8 27.4 24.7 −62% ``` -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 116 @@ -14823,81 +11519,52 @@ Non-OECD regions 911 762 558 428 318 259 212 182 −80% ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 117 ``` **5.4.1.3 Electricity Demand in the ‘Residential and Other’ Sector** The electricity demand in the ‘Residential and other’ sector includes electricity use - in households, for commercial purposes, and in the service and trade sectors, fish- - ery, and agriculture. Besides lighting, information, and communication, a large - amount of electricity is used for cooking, cooling, and hot water. It has been esti- - mated that in 2015, electricity use for heating had a global average share of 5% of - the final energy use for heating. It is assumed that this share will increase signifi- - cantly to 30% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 37% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. - These increases are attributed to sector coupling, the provision of storage for vari- - able renewable energy in the heat sector, and the provision of high-temperature heat - without fuel combustion. The average global electricity use for appliances in the - ‘Residential and other’ sector will decrease in the reference case from 78 kWh/$1000 - GDP in 2015 to 60 kWh/$1000 in 2050, whereas it will decrease to 38 kWh/$1000 in - the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 37  kWh/$1000  in the 1.5  °C Scenario, a reduction of - more than 50% relative to today’s energy consumption. The average global electric- - ity use for appliances in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, which is related to per - capita consumption, will increase in the reference scenario from 1350 kWh/capita - in 2015 to 2370 kWh/capita in 2050, whereas it will increase to only 1490 kWh/ - capita in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 1460  kWh/capita in the 1.5  °C Scenario. - Table 5.11 shows the changes in electricity use for appliances in OECD and non- - OECD countries (without electricity for heating). Significant reduction potentials - are assumed for all world regions. Similar to the development in the industry sector, - between 2020 and 2025, the annual power demand for electrical appliances in the - ‘Residential and other’ sector will be around 5% lower in the 1.5 °C Scenario than - in the 2.0  °C Scenario, and more than 10% lower between 2025 and 2035. After - 2035, the two scenarios will converge again, so that in 2050, the global demand will - be only 2% higher in the 2.0 °C Scenario than in the 1.5 °C Scenario. **Table 5.11** Assumed average developments of per capita electricity use in the ‘Residential and other’ sector for electrical appliances (without power-to-heat) - -``` -kWh/capita 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change 2050/2015 +kWh/capita [^2015]: [^2020]: [^2025]: [^2030]: [^2035]: [^2040]: [^2045]: [^2050]: Change 2050/2015 Reference case -OECD regions 4457 4585 4753 4972 5189 5419 5626 5837 31% -Non-OECD regions 712 851 977 1191 1366 1532 1661 1788 151% +OECD regions [^4457]: [^4585]: [^4753]: [^4972]: [^5189]: [^5419]: [^5626]: [^5837]: 31% +Non-OECD regions [^712]: [^851]: [^977]: [^1191]: [^1366]: [^1532]: [^1661]: [^1788]: 151% 2.0 °C Scenario -OECD regions 4457 4526 4366 4137 3837 3590 3304 3023 −32% -Non-OECD regions 712 834 894 1004 1083 1143 1193 1238 74% +OECD regions [^4457]: [^4526]: [^4366]: [^4137]: [^3837]: [^3590]: [^3304]: [^3023]: −32% +Non-OECD regions [^712]: [^834]: [^894]: [^1004]: [^1083]: [^1143]: [^1193]: [^1238]: 74% 1.5 °C Scenario -OECD regions 4457 4502 4078 3346 2987 2896 2889 2872 −36% -Non-OECD regions 712 806 842 928 1001 1086 1164 1224 72% -``` -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways +OECD regions [^4457]: [^4502]: [^4078]: [^3346]: [^2987]: [^2896]: [^2889]: [^2872]: −36% +Non-OECD regions [^712]: [^806]: [^842]: [^928]: [^1001]: [^1086]: [^1164]: [^1224]: 72% +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 118 @@ -15005,7 +11672,6 @@ regions ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 119 ``` @@ -15031,11 +11697,11 @@ be larger (and faster) in OECD countries. This will result in smaller regional d ences in the final energy demand compared with the current situation. Compared -with the very ambitious assumptions of Grubler et al. ( 2018 ) for the specific final +with the very ambitious assumptions of Grubler et al. ([^2018]:) for the specific final energy demands in northern and southern world regions, the assumptions made in -this study are conservative. In Grubler et al. ( 2018 ), the annual global final energy +this study are conservative. In Grubler et al. ([^2018]:), the annual global final energy use, including non-energy consumption, will decrease from 363 EJ in 2015 to 245 @@ -15043,7 +11709,7 @@ EJ by 2050, whereas in our study, the annual global value will decrease to 310 E the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 284 EJ in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with 586 EJ in -the reference case (see Chap. 8). Because the 1.5  °C target requires a significant +the reference case (see Chap. [^8]:). Because the 1.5  °C target requires a significant reduction in emissions before 2030, the 1.5  °C Scenario necessarily reduces the @@ -15051,7 +11717,7 @@ energy demand more rapidly than the 2.0  °C Scenario, but only a slightly lowe annual consumption is assumed in 2050. -**_5.4.2 RES Deployment for Electricity Generation_** +**5.4.2 RES Deployment for Electricity Generation** The power demand will increase significantly in all scenarios. In the 2.0  °C and @@ -15077,7 +11743,7 @@ electrification and sector coupling. The available energy sources for renewable 2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` 3,000 @@ -15095,15 +11761,13 @@ electrification and sector coupling. The available energy sources for renewable 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` -P -DG -$r -ep -yg -re -ne -la -nif +PDG +``` +``` +$rep +``` +``` +ygrenelanif ``` ``` 0 @@ -15112,28 +11776,28 @@ nif 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -3,50 0 +3,500 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -4,50 0 +4,500 ``` ``` 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 @@ -15154,12 +11818,10 @@ India Non-OECD Asia weighted average ``` -``` -Fig. 5.3 Development of the specific final energy use (per $GDP) in all stationary sectors (i.e., +**Fig. 5.3** Development of the specific final energy use (per $GDP) in all stationary sectors (i.e., without transport) per world region under the 2.0 °C Scenario (left) and 1.5 °C Scenario (right) -``` -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 120 @@ -15175,16 +11837,15 @@ other renewable options for the highly efficient generation of electricity for f energy consumption and the generation of synthetic fuels. -``` Our estimates of the potential for renewable power generation are based on the -``` -results of the REMix EnDat tool developed (Scholz 2012 ; Stetter 2014 ; Pietzcker -et al. 2014 ). The technical potentials for solar and wind power in each world region +results of the REMix EnDat tool developed (Scholz [^2012]:; Stetter [^2014]:; Pietzcker + +et al. [^2014]:). The technical potentials for solar and wind power in each world region were estimated while taking into account the different exclusion criteria and con- -straints documented by Stetter ( 2014 ). The analysis was used to estimate the ‘eco- +straints documented by Stetter ([^2014]:). The analysis was used to estimate the ‘eco- nomic’ potential for each world region, which is the upper limit of the technological @@ -15235,9 +11896,8 @@ each). The lowest shares, in the range of 20–25%, are in Eurasia, OECD Europe, Latin America, and China. -``` Wind power on land will achieve an average global generation share of 25% in -``` + 2050 in both alternative scenarios (compared with 8% in the reference case). The highest generation shares for onshore wind are assumed in India and Eastern @@ -15259,7 +11919,6 @@ China (6.5%), where the potential is rather limited. The offshore shares under t ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 121 ``` @@ -15267,9 +11926,8 @@ T. Pregger et al. and onshore wind as the best options for a very rapid expansion of RES. -``` Compared with PV and wind power, CSP plants promise highly flexible power -``` + and heat generation, with high capacity factors due to high-temperature heat stor- age. The use of heat for desalination can also contribute to secure water supplies in @@ -15321,9 +11979,8 @@ plays only a minor role in the long term in the Middle East (1%), Africa, and In (each 4%). -``` Even smaller contributions are assumed for geothermal energy, ocean energy, -``` + and biomass. All three options have comparably high power-generation costs, but offer complementary characteristics and availabilities that may stabilize future elec- @@ -15350,12 +12007,11 @@ cells to co-generation. Figure 5.4 shows the basic storyline in global power ge tion under the 2.0 °C Scenario. -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 122 -**_5.4.3 RES Deployment for Heat Generation_** +**5.4.3 RES Deployment for Heat Generation** Heat generation covers a broad range of processes, including district heat (either @@ -15412,31 +12068,31 @@ from 5% in 2015 to 30% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 35% in the 1.5 °C Scenario 0% ``` ``` -10 % +10% ``` ``` -20 % +20% ``` ``` -30 % +30% ``` ``` -40 % +40% ``` ``` -50 % +50% ``` ``` -60 % +60% ``` ``` -70 % +70% ``` ``` -80 % +80% ``` ``` -90 % +90% ``` ``` 100% @@ -15445,25 +12101,16 @@ from 5% in 2015 to 30% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 35% in the 1.5 °C Scenario 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` -er -ah -s -no -it -ar -en -eg -re -w -op -la -b -ol -g -eg -ar -ev -a +erahs +``` +``` +noitarenegre +``` +``` +woplabolg +``` +``` +egareva ``` ``` Hydrogen @@ -15482,7 +12129,6 @@ Scenario ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 123 ``` @@ -15550,9 +12196,8 @@ technologies and electrification. The lowest shares are assumed for the Middle E able potentials. -``` Solar collectors are suitable for hot water preparation and for supporting heating -``` + systems using heat storage. In heat grids, large heat storage systems can also be used to balance the seasonal heat demand and solar generation, and the integration of @@ -15579,67 +12224,39 @@ tems. The global average solar share in the ‘Industry’ sector will increase 2050. The largest shares are achieved in the Middle East (25%) and Africa (20%) -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 124 and the lowest shares are assumed in Eastern Europe/Eurasia (9%), followed by the - OECD regions (10–13%). +Heat pumps allow very efficient heat supply. System-wide CO[^2]: emissions depend -``` -Heat pumps allow very efficient heat supply. System-wide CO 2 emissions depend -``` -on the CO 2 emissions in the power mix. Because of their generation of low- - +on the CO[^2]: emissions in the power mix. Because of their generation of low- temperature heat, heat pumps play a role in space heating in regions with moderate or cold climates, but large industrial heat pumps can also generate low-temperature - heat for industrial processes and tap the enormous potential of waste heat. A con- - tinuous improvement in the coefficient of performance of heat pumps, which - describes the ratio of useful energy in the form of heat to the required compressor - energy in the form of electricity, in all existing plants from an average of 3 today to - a value of 4 in 2050 is assumed. The application potential of heat pumps (in terms - of MWth) is assumed to be limited by the low temperature of the heat provided, the - increasing share of the grid-connected heat supply, the assumed increase in exten- - sive building insulation, and the low space heating demand in some world regions. - In addition to heat pumps, an increase in deep geothermal energy use is assumed for - the ‘Industry’ sector, with an increase of up to 11% in the global average share of - final energy by 2050 under both alternative scenarios. - -``` Hydrogen use for direct heating is linked to the increasing substitution of natural -``` gas with hydrogen in all sectors, except transport. This will lead to a hydrogen share - of 12–14% in final energy for heating in the ‘Industry’ sector under the two alterna- - tive scenarios and 3% in the ‘Residential and other’ sector under the 2.0 °C Scenario - and 4% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. The highest hydrogen shares in ‘Industry’ are - assumed for OECD North America (22–23%), followed by other OECD regions, - Eastern Europe/Eurasia, China, and the Middle East with shares of 13%–18%. The - lowest shares, below 5%, are assumed for Latin America and Africa, where biomass - from residues provides a flexible alternative. The highest hydrogen shares in the - ‘Residential and other’ sector will be in the Middle East (7–10%), followed by - OECD Pacific (6–8%) and OECD Europe (up to 9%) (Figs. 5.5 and 5.6). ``` @@ -15679,23 +12296,13 @@ OECD Pacific (6–8%) and OECD Europe (up to 9%) (Figs. 5.5 and 5.6). 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` -er -ah -s -no -it -ar -en -eg -ta -eh -la -bo -lg -eg -ar -ev -a +erahs +``` +``` +noitarenegtaehlabolg +``` +``` +egareva ``` ``` District heat @@ -15711,11 +12318,10 @@ Electricity ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 125 ``` -**_5.4.4 Co-generation of Heat and Power and District Heating_** +**5.4.4 Co-generation of Heat and Power and District Heating** Compared with condensing power plants with high efficiency losses due to waste @@ -15751,9 +12357,8 @@ parameters according to a defined advanced state of technology, with overall eff ciencies of 85–90%. -``` Although absolute electricity generation from CHP will increase in all regions, -``` + all scenarios assume a decreasing power generation share for CHP in the long term ``` @@ -15793,75 +12398,53 @@ all scenarios assume a decreasing power generation share for CHP in the long ter 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` -er -ah -s -n -oi -ta -r -en -eg -ta -e -hl -a -bo -lg -eg -ar -ev -a +erahs +``` +``` +noitarenegtaehlabolg +``` +``` +egareva ``` ``` District heat +``` +``` Hydrogen ``` ``` Geothermal/heat pumps +``` +``` Biomass ``` ``` Solar collectors +``` +``` Electricity ``` **Fig. 5.6** Development of the average global shares of future heat-generation options in the ‘Residential and other’ sector under the 2.0 °C scenario -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 126 due to the decommissioning of fossil-fuel generators, the limited availability of bio- - mass, and the assumption that heat losses in CHP technologies will be reduced, - leading to higher overall efficiency. Tables 5.13 and 5.14 show the resulting devel- - opments for power and heat as intensities summed across the ‘Industry’ and - ‘Residential and other’ sectors. Whereas the absolute power supply from CHP will - increase in all regions, the power-related intensities will decrease. Under the 2.0 °C - Scenario, higher CHP power production is assumed to be higher than in the refer- - ence case, as a balancing option for variable renewable sources. CHP plants will - play a smaller role in the future, particularly in non-OECD countries. - -``` For heat, the situations are more diverse between the scenarios and regions. -``` While the intensity of heat use from CHP will increase in the OECD regions, it will - decrease in the non-OECD regions. Even though the intensity converges between - OECD and non-OECD regions under all scenarios, the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - will achieve higher levels of intensity. However, the early reduction in demand in - the 1.5 °C Scenario will preclude any additional demand for CHP. **Table 5.13** Development of power from co-generation per $GDP @@ -15895,34 +12478,26 @@ OECD regions 39.5 39.7 38.8 39.4 40.2 41.8 43.6 47.2 19% Non-OECD regions 108.8 94.8 78.3 67.9 60.0 54.8 50.1 47.9 −56% 2.0 °C Scenario OECD regions 39.5 40.5 49.3 58.1 65.2 70.1 75.2 78.4 98% -Non-OECD regions108.8 101.2 92.6 89.8 86.3 83.4 77.6 70.4 −35% +Non-OECD regions 108.8 101.2 92.6 89.8 86.3 83.4 77.6 70.4 −35% 1.5 °C Scenario OECD regions 39.5 41.0 51.9 58.4 60.4 61.6 63.8 66.0 67% -Non-OECD regions108.8 101.1 93.8 93.3 89.8 84.5 77.9 69.9 −36% +Non-OECD regions 108.8 101.1 93.8 93.3 89.8 84.5 77.9 69.9 −36% ``` ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 127 ``` -**_5.4.5 Other Assumptions for Stationary Processes_** +**5.4.5 Other Assumptions for Stationary Processes** Although the energy losses in the production of synthetic fuels are significant, these - fuels are expected to be mandatory in the deep decarbonisation scenarios for sectors - and processes in which the direct use of other renewable sources, including renew- - able power, is not technically feasible. We assume an optimistic increase in the - -efficiency^1 of electrolytic hydrogen generation, from 66% today to 77% by 2050 - -(ratio of energy output [H 2 ] to energy input [electricity]). The generation of syn- - -thetic fuels (such as Fischer-Tropsch fuels) from hydrogen, using CO 2 as the carbon - +efficiency[^1] of electrolytic hydrogen generation, from 66% today to 77% by 2050 +(ratio of energy output [H[^2]:] to energy input [electricity]). The generation of syn- +thetic fuels (such as Fischer-Tropsch fuels) from hydrogen, using CO[^2]: as the carbon source, is assumed to be a complementary option that will allow the decarbonisation of long-range transport, particularly aviation and international bunkers, without @@ -15933,62 +12508,37 @@ shares of power-to-liquid synfuels in the aggregated biofuel/synfuel fraction of transport modes (according to Sect. 6.3.3.) is a result of the sectoral allocation of the -limited biomass potentials in each world region. The assumed efficiency^2 of synfuel +limited biomass potentials in each world region. The assumed efficiency[^2] of synfuel generation will increase from 35% in 2020 to 42% in 2050. As well as in fuel-cell - vehicles, hydrogen can be used to replace natural gas in stationary processes by - 2030  in both scenarios, mostly for use in industry and co-generation plants. The - scenarios do not assume a hydrogen economy in the long term. The development of - hydrogen infrastructure is expected to be inefficient, especially for residential use. - However, because hydrogen is assumed to be fed into the gas grid with a share of up - to 100% by 2050, it will also be partly used in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, - which includes various commercial applications. - -``` The allocation of the limited biomass to the power, heat, and transport sectors -``` differs significantly between the available scenarios. In this study, the biomass in the - alternative scenarios is mainly for use in transport, co-generation, and industry. - Traditional biomass use is strongly reduced, but biomass remains an important pil- - lar of heat supply in the ‘Residential and other’ sector under the assumption that the - most-efficient technologies are implemented. Biofuel production for transportation - remains limited. An increase in overall efficiency of up to 75% is assumed, implying - the use of residues for heat and power generation. - -``` The efficiency of fossil technologies will also increase, especially for gas power -``` plants. This goes along with the decreasing utilization rates that result from the vari- - able feed-in from renewable energies. Therefore, the scenarios implicitly assume - that the future innovations in all combustion technologies will focus on maximum - efficiency at lower utilization rates. Gas power plants will be used for backup, - requiring low investment but providing high flexibility to the power system. - Therefore, a part of the energy transition is the rapid replacement of inflexible - medium- to base-load power plant capacities with flexible gas power plants. -(^1) Ratio energy output (H 2 ) to energy input (electricity) -(^2) Ratio of energy output (synfuels) to energy input (electricity). -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways +[^1]:Ratio energy output (H[^2]:) to energy input (electricity) +[^2]:Ratio of energy output (synfuels) to energy input (electricity). +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 128 @@ -16006,7 +12556,7 @@ A demand- and supply-side perspective. Energy Efficiency, 4, (3), August 2011, p Grubler A, Wilson C, Bento N, Boza-Kiss B, Krey V, McCollum DL, Rao ND, Riahi K, Rogelj J, De Stercke S, Cullen J, Frank S, Fricko O, Guo F, Gidden M, Havlík P, Huppmann D, Kiesewetter G, Rafaj P, Schoepp W, Valin H (2018) A low energy demand scenario for meeting -the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. +the 1.5°C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Nature Energy 3 (6):515–527. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6 Herreras Martínez S, Koberle A, Rochedo P, Schaeffer R, Lucena A, Szklo A, Ashina S, van Vuuren DP (2015) Possible energy futures for Brazil and Latin America in conservative and stringent @@ -16049,7 +12599,6 @@ doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12162 ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - ``` 129 ``` @@ -16072,7 +12621,7 @@ Division); IDB-MG-562 Nass LL, Pereira PAA, Ellis D (2007) Biofuels in Brazil: An Overview. Crop Science 47 (6):2228– 2237. doi:https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2007.03.0166 -NEEDS (2009) The NEEDS Life Cycle Inventory Database. [http://www.needs-project.org/need-](http://www.needs-project.org/need-) +NEEDS (2009) The NEEDS Life Cycle Inventory Database. http://www.needs-project.org/need- swebdb/index.php. Accessed 15th April 2016 2016 Nematollahi O, Hoghooghi H, Rasti M, Sedaghat A (2016) Energy demands and renewable energy resources in the Middle East. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 54:1172–1181. @@ -16107,8 +12656,7 @@ Kenndaten. Ministerium für Umwelt Klima und Energiewirtschaft Baden-Württember STrise: Universität Stuttgart, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart -5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways - +[^5]: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways 130 @@ -16139,7 +12687,7 @@ Zervos A, Lins C, Muth J  (2010) RE-thinking 2050: a 100% renewable energy visi European Union. European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -16152,12 +12700,10 @@ the copyright holder. ``` T. Pregger et al. ``` - © The Author(s) 2019 131 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_6 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 6 +**Chapter 6** #### Transport Transition Concepts @@ -16183,33 +12729,20 @@ transport modes are provided. **6.1 Introduction** -Global transport accounted for 23% of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in 2010 - +Global transport accounted for 23% of total anthropogenic CO[^2]: emissions in 2010 and those emissions have increased at a rapid rate in recent decades, reaching 7 Gt -in 2010 according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Sims et  al. 2014 ). The - +in 2010 according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Sims et  al. [^2014]:). The reason for this steady increase in emissions is that passenger and freight transport - activities are increasing in all world regions, and there is currently no sign that this - growth will slow down in the near future. The increasing energy demand in the - transport sector has mainly been met by greenhouse gas (GHG)-emitting fossil - fuels. Although (battery) electric mobility has recently surged considerably, it has - done so from a very low base, which is why, in terms of total numbers, electricity - still plays a relatively minor role as an energy carrier in the transport sector. - -``` Apart from their impacts on climate, increasing transport levels, especially of -``` cars, trucks, and aeroplanes, also have unwanted side-effects, including accidents, - traffic jams, the emission of noise and other pollutants, visual pollution, and the - disruption of landscapes by the large-scale build-up of the transport infrastructure. J. Pagenkopf (*) · B. van den Adel · Ö. Deniz · S. Schmid @@ -16218,100 +12751,63 @@ Department of Vehicle Systems and Technology Assessment, German Aerospace Center e-mail: johannes.pagenkopf@dlr.de; Bent.vandenAdel@dlr.de; oezcan.deniz@dlr.de; stephan.schmid@dlr.de - 132 However, road, rail, sea, and air transport are also an integral part of our globalized - and interconnected world, and guarantee prosperity and inter-cultural exchange. - Therefore, if we are to cater to people’s desire for mobility while keeping the econ- - omy running and meeting the Paris climate goals, fundamental technical, opera- - tional, and behavioural measures are required immediately. - -``` In this transport chapter, we discuss potential transport activity pathways and -``` technological developments by which the requirement that warming does not exceed - pre-industrial levels by more than 2.0 °C or 1.5 °C can be met—while at the same - time maintaining a reasonable standard of mobility. - -``` For our transport scenario modelling, the global warming limits of 2.0  °C and -``` -1.5  °C were translated into transport CO 2 budgets. We structured our scenario +1.5  °C were translated into transport CO[^2]: budgets. We structured our scenario +designs around the following key CO[^2]:-reducing measures[^1]: -designs around the following key CO 2 -reducing measures^1 : +• Powertrain electrification; +• Enhancement of energy efficiency through technological development; +• Use of bio-based and synthetically produced fuels; +• Modal shifts (from high- to low-energy intensity modes) and overall reductions -- Powertrain electrification; -- Enhancement of energy efficiency through technological development; -- Use of bio-based and synthetically produced fuels; -- Modal shifts (from high- to low-energy intensity modes) and overall reductions - -``` in transport activity in energy-intensive transport modes. -``` + These measures are outlined in more detail in the subsequent chapters. **6.2 Global Transport Picture in 2015** -The world final energy demand in the transport sector totalled 94,812 PJ^2 in 2015, - +The world final energy demand in the transport sector totalled 94,812 PJ[^2] in 2015, according to the IEA Energy Balances (IEA 2017a, b, c). Based on this estimate, we - used TRAEM (Sect. 3.3 to model the freight and passenger transport performance - in our transport model with statistical data and energy efficiency figures. - -``` The following paragraphs outline the 2015 transport structure modelled in -``` TRAEM, which is the starting point for the subsequent scenario building until 2050. - -``` As can be seen from Fig. 6.1, road passenger transport had the biggest transport -``` final energy share of 51% in 2015. Most of this comprised individual road passenger - modes (mostly cars, but also two- and three-wheel vehicles), which accounted for - 45% of all end energy in the transport sector. In total, road transport (passenger and - freight) accounted for around 90% of total final energy demand for transport. - -``` The majority of total passenger–km (pkm) in passenger transport (around 85% -``` of total pkm) is contributed by road transport modes. Freight is much more rail- - oriented, and has a 42% share of total tonne–km (tkm), as shown in Fig. 6.2. The - tkm share is much larger than the energy share arising from the much higher energy - efficiency of railways compared with trucks. - -``` Figure 6.3 shows the powertrain split of all transport modes in 2015 (by pkm or -``` tkm respectively). With a few exceptions, the majority of modes were still heavily - dependent on conventional internal combustion engines (ICE). A small number of - buses had electric powertrains, which were mainly trolleybuses and increasingly -(^1) See also Teske et al. ( 2015 ). -(^2) International aviation and navigation bunkers are not included in this figure. +[^1]:See also Teske et al. ([^2015]:). +[^2]:International aviation and navigation bunkers are not included in this figure. + +``` J. Pagenkopf et al. - - +``` ``` 133 ``` -also battery- powered electric buses, predominantly in China. China also has a par- +also battery-powered electric buses, predominantly in China. China also has a par- ticularly large number of electric two- and three-wheel vehicles. Almost all battery @@ -16321,25 +12817,21 @@ extent (e.g., metro and high-speed trains), whereas freight trains were predomi- nantly not electrified. -``` OECD America and OECD Europe together make up nearly half the total energy -``` + demand (Fig. 6.4), and China is almost on the same level as OECD Europe, although it has about twice as many inhabitants as OECD Europe. **6.3 Measures to Reduce and Decarbonise Transport Energy** - **Consumption** This section describes the measures required to reduce the final energy demand and - decarbonise the transport sector. A variety of actions will be required so that the - transport sector can conform to the <2.0 °C or 1.5 °C global warming pathways. The ``` -45 % +45% ``` ``` 6% @@ -16394,13 +12886,12 @@ pkm tkm ``` ``` -pkm/tkm x10^12 +pkm/tkm x10[^12] Rail Road Aviation (Domestic & International) ``` **Fig. 6.2** Transport mode performances of road, rail, and aviation -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 134 @@ -16423,7 +12914,7 @@ We found that urgent and profound measures must be taken because the emis- ``` sions reduction window will soon close. Therefore, temporary reductions in fossil- -fuel- related transport activities (in terms of pkm and tkm of passenger cars, trucks, +fuel-related transport activities (in terms of pkm and tkm of passenger cars, trucks, ``` 0% @@ -16435,10 +12926,10 @@ fuel- related transport activities (in terms of pkm and tkm of passenger cars, t 20% ``` ``` -30 % +30% ``` ``` -40 % +40% ``` ``` 50% @@ -16447,10 +12938,10 @@ fuel- related transport activities (in terms of pkm and tkm of passenger cars, t 60% ``` ``` -70 % +70% ``` ``` -80 % +80% ``` ``` 90% @@ -16470,27 +12961,14 @@ Train Freight Train ``` ``` -ec -na -mr -of -re -p -tr -op -sn -ar -t -re -pt -il -ps -ni -ar -tr -e -wo -P +ecna +``` +``` +mrofreptropsnartreptilps +``` +``` +niartre +woP ``` ``` Internal Combustion Engine Electric @@ -16520,20 +12998,26 @@ Internal Combustion Engine Electric 5% ``` ``` -5%4% +5% 4% ``` -###### 2015 +**2015** ``` OECD North America +``` +``` OECD Europe ``` ``` China +``` +``` Latin America ``` ``` Non-OECD Asia +``` +``` OECD Pacific ``` ``` @@ -16541,6 +13025,8 @@ Middle East ``` ``` Eurasia +``` +``` Africa ``` ``` @@ -16553,7 +13039,6 @@ according to region ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 135 ``` @@ -16563,7 +13048,7 @@ and aviation) in OECD countries seem nearly unavoidable until the electrificatio breakthrough. -**_6.3.1 Powertrain Electrification_** +**6.3.1 Powertrain Electrification** Increasing the market penetration of highly efficient (battery and fuel-cell) electric @@ -16577,55 +13062,36 @@ Today, only a few countries have significant proportions of electric vehicles in fleets. The total numbers of electric vehicles, particularly in road transport, are -insignificant, but because road transport is by far the largest CO 2 emitter in overall - +insignificant, but because road transport is by far the largest CO[^2]: emitter in overall transport, it offers a very powerful lever for decarbonisation. In terms of drivetrain electrification, we cluster the world regions into three groups, according to the dif- +fusion theory (Rogers [^2003]:): -fusion theory (Rogers 2003 ): - -- _Innovators_ : OECD North America (excluding Mexico), OECD Europe, OECD - -``` +• Innovators: OECD North America (excluding Mexico), OECD Europe, OECD Pacific, and China -``` -- _Moderate_ : Mexico, Non-OECD Asia, India, Eurasia, and Latin America -- _Late adopters_ : Africa and the Middle East. +• Moderate: Mexico, Non-OECD Asia, India, Eurasia, and Latin America +• Late adopters: Africa and the Middle East. -``` Although this clustering is rough, it sufficiently mirrors the basic tendencies we -``` modelled. The regions differ in the speed with which novel technologies, especially - electric drivetrains, will penetrate the market. **6.3.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario** The 5.0 °C Scenario follows the IEA Current Policies Scenario (IEA 2017a) until - 2040, with extrapolation to 2050. We model only minor electrification over all - transport modes (see Fig. 6.5), with passenger cars and buses making relevant gains - in _electric vehicle_ (EV) shares. For example, we project a share of 30% for _battery_ - _electric vehicles_ (BEV) in China by 2050 due to foreseeable legislation and techno- - -logical advancements in that country (Cui and Xiao 2018 ), whereas for the world - +logical advancements in that country (Cui and Xiao [^2018]:), whereas for the world car fleet, the share is projected to increase to only around 10%. The growth in the - share of the commercial road vehicle fleet and of the fleet of two- and three-wheel - vehicles held of electric powertrains will be small, as will be the increase in further - rail electrification. Aviation and navigation (shipping) will remain fully dependent - on conventional kerosene and diesel, respectively. -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 136 @@ -16637,36 +13103,22 @@ electrification until 2020 is assumed in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Moving towards 2 the _innovator_ regions will experience strong electrification, encouraged by purchase -incentives, EV credit systems, and tightened CO 2 fleet emission targets. Passenger - +incentives, EV credit systems, and tightened CO[^2]: fleet emission targets. Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are projected to achieve shares of BEVs in the regional stocks between 21% and 30%, whereas heavy commercial vehicles and - buses will attain even higher EV fleet shares of between 28% and 52% by 2030. - This will require a massive build-up of battery production capacity in the coming - years. Electric city buses and some trolley trucks will make a significant contribu- - tion to this development. Two- and three-wheel vehicles will be nearly completely - electrified (batteries and fuel cells) in a couple of regions. OECD Pacific will head - the _fuel-cell-electric vehicle_ (FCEV) market introduction, which will account for up - to 6% of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles by 2030, with Japan and - South Korea the main market drivers. Higher shares of FCEV in _innovator_ regions - are more likely in the bus and heavy truck sector, which reach up to 10% in 2030. - In 2050 in the innovative regions, only a minor proportion of vehicles will have ICE - (up to 9%). Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles will predominantly be - electrified, with a BEV share of around 80%. FCEV will also gain a significant - share of 17% in OECD Pacific and OECD North America. ``` @@ -16707,13 +13159,13 @@ Aviation (Domestic) ``` ``` -Passenger CarBus 2- & 3-Wheeler TruckPassenger TrainFreig ht Train +Passenger CarBus 2-& 3-Wheeler TruckPassengerTrainFreightTrain ``` ``` Powertrain split per transport performance ``` ``` -Internal Combustion Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric +InternalCombustionEngine Plug-In Hybrid Electric ``` **Fig. 6.5** Powertrain split for all transport modes in 2050 under the 5.0 °C Scenario in terms of transport performance @@ -16721,7 +13173,6 @@ transport performance ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 137 ``` @@ -16763,9 +13214,8 @@ remain mostly dependent on ICE in 2050, with shares of around 90%. Only slow electrification will occur in Africa, with small and cheap BEVs (Fig. 6.6). -``` As an example of how different the electrification speeds will be across the world -``` + regions, Fig. 6.7 shows the uptake of electric and fuel-cell drivetrains in buses and two- and three-wheel vehicles, region by region, in terms of pkm. In 2015, a sub- @@ -16831,9 +13281,14 @@ predominantly relied on diesel locomotives. ``` OECD North America +``` +``` OECD Europe -Powertrain split per transport performanceOECD PacificChina India Africa +``` +``` +OECD Pacific China India Africa +Powertrain split per transport performance ``` ``` 2030 @@ -16841,8 +13296,12 @@ Powertrain split per transport performanceOECD PacificChina India Africa ``` OECD North America +``` +``` OECD Europe +``` +``` OECD PacificChina IndiaAfrica ``` ``` @@ -16851,78 +13310,59 @@ OECD PacificChina IndiaAfrica ``` Internal Combustion Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric Hydrogen ``` -**Fig. 6.6** Powertrain split (fleet) of passenger cars in selected regions in 2030 ( _left_ ) and 2050 -( _right_ ) under the 2.0 °C Scenario - -6 Transport Transition Concepts +**Fig. 6.6** Powertrain split (fleet) of passenger cars in selected regions in 2030 (_left_) and 2050 +(_right_) under the 2.0 °C Scenario +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 138 -``` In most world regions, nearly all rail traffic is projected to be electric after -``` 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Total diesel consumption in rail operations is projected - to increase slowly until 2030, mainly because railway vehicles have long lifespans, - and once diesel cars are put into operation, they are not replaced overnight. - Furthermore, line electrification usually requires several years of planning and - construction. - -``` Aviation will probably remain predominantly powered by liquid fossil fuels (ker- -``` osene and bio- and synfuel derivatives) in the medium to long term because of limi- - tations in electrical energy storage. We project a moderate increase in domestic pkm - flown in electric aircrafts starting in 2030, with larger shares in OECD Europe - because the flight distances are shorter than, for example, in the USA (Fig. 6.9). - Norway has announced plans to perform all short-haul flights electrically by 2040 - -(Agence France-Presse 2018 ). - -``` +(Agence France-Presse [^2018]:). However, no real electrification breakthrough in aviation is foreseeable unless -``` the attainable energy densities of batteries increase to 800–1000  Wh/kg, which - would require fast-charging capable post-lithium battery chemistries. ``` 0% ``` ``` -10 % +10% ``` ``` -20 % +20% ``` ``` -30 % +30% ``` ``` -40 % +40% ``` ``` -50 % +50% ``` ``` -60 % +60% ``` ``` -70 % +70% ``` ``` -80 % +80% ``` ``` -90 % +90% ``` ``` 100% @@ -16933,33 +13373,36 @@ Ba ``` ``` tte -ry a +``` +``` +ry +a ``` ``` nd ``` ``` -Tro +Tr +olle ``` ``` -lle y el ``` ``` ec -tric +tr ``` ``` +ic sh ``` ``` -are +ar +e of ``` ``` -of -``` -``` -tota +to +ta ``` ``` l @@ -16977,12 +13420,12 @@ m USA Canada Mexico Latin America ``` ``` -Fuel cell eletric share of total bus pkm 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -OECD Europe Eurasia -Africa Middle East India Chin a Non-OECD Asia OECD Pacific +Fuel cell eletric share of total bus pkm[^2015][^2020][^2025][^2030][^2035][^2040][^2045][^2050] +OECDEurope Eurasia +Africa MiddleEast India China Non-OECDAsia OECDPacific ``` -**Fig. 6.7** Battery and trolley electric bus share of total bus pkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( _left_ ) and -fuel-cell electric bus share of total bus pkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( _right_ ) +**Fig. 6.7** Battery and trolley electric bus share of total bus pkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario (_left_) and +fuel-cell electric bus share of total bus pkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario (_right_) ``` 0 @@ -16991,16 +13434,16 @@ fuel-cell electric bus share of total bus pkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( _right_ 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` passenger rail freight rail @@ -17018,13 +13461,12 @@ Total Passenger Rail Diesel Electric Biofuel / Synfuel 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total Freight Rail ``` -**Fig. 6.8** Electrification of passenger rail ( _left_ ) and freight rail ( _right_ ) under the 2.0 °C Scenario (in +**Fig. 6.8** Electrification of passenger rail (_left_) and freight rail (_right_) under the 2.0 °C Scenario (in PJ of final energy demand) ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 139 ``` @@ -17050,7 +13492,7 @@ the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. The phasing out of internal combustion en 2.0 °C Scenario (Fig. 6.10). -**_6.3.2 Mode-Specific Efficiency and Improvements Over Time_** +**6.3.2 Mode-Specific Efficiency and Improvements Over Time** In passenger transport, trains and buses are much more energy efficient per pkm @@ -17064,7 +13506,7 @@ especially ships are clearly more energy efficient than trucks in transporting f mode by mode, later in this chapter, and these figures are the basis for the rationale -of our discussion in terms of modal shift (Chap. 6, Sect. 4 ). The efficiency data are +of our discussion in terms of modal shift (Chap. [^6]:, Sect. 4 ). The efficiency data are ``` 0% @@ -17090,11 +13532,12 @@ of our discussion in terms of modal shift (Chap. 6, Sect. 4 ). The efficiency da ``` 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` -``` Electric share of domestic aviation pkm -``` + ``` USA +``` +``` Canada ``` ``` @@ -17102,6 +13545,8 @@ Mexico ``` ``` Latin America +``` +``` OECD Europe ``` ``` @@ -17109,13 +13554,17 @@ Eurasia ``` ``` Africa -Middle East +``` +``` +MiddleEast ``` ``` India ``` ``` China +``` +``` Non-OECD Asia ``` ``` @@ -17123,34 +13572,22 @@ OECD Pacific ``` **Fig. 6.9** Electricity-performed pkm in domestic aviation under the 2.0 °C Scenario -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 140 based on literature-reported and transport operator information. The efficiency lev- - els in terms of pkm or tkm depend to a large extent on the underlying capacity uti- - lization of the vehicles, which differs between world regions. The numbers are - average values and differences are evaluated at the regional level. - -``` In addition to powertrain electrification, there are other potential improvements -``` in energy efficiency, and their implementation will steadily improve energy intensity - over time. Regardless of the types of powertrains and fuels used, efficiency improve- - ments on the MJ/pkm or MJ/tkm level will result from (for example): -- Reductions in powertrain losses through more-efficient motors, gears, power - -``` +• Reductions in powertrain losses through more-efficient motors, gears, power electronics, etc.; -``` -- Reductions in aerodynamic drag; +• Reductions in aerodynamic drag; ``` 0.00 @@ -17179,9 +13616,8 @@ electronics, etc.; ``` 2.00 ``` -``` MJ/pkm (2015) -``` + **Fig. 6.11** Final energy demand in urban and inter-urban passenger transport modes in 2015 (world averages) @@ -17219,7 +13655,7 @@ averages) 100% ``` ``` -Powertrain split of world passenger car fleet 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 +Powertrain split of world passenger car fleet2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Internal Combustion Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric Hydrogen ``` ``` @@ -17231,27 +13667,24 @@ Internal Combustion Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric Hydrogen ``` 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` -**Fig. 6.10** Powertrain split of the world passenger car fleet in the 2.0 °C Scenario ( _left_ ) and 1.5 °C -Scenario ( _right_ ) +**Fig. 6.10** Powertrain split of the world passenger car fleet in the 2.0 °C Scenario (_left_) and 1.5 °C +Scenario (_right_) ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 141 ``` -- Reductions in vehicle mass through light-weighting; -- The use of smaller vehicles; -- Operational improvements (e.g., through automatic train operation, load factor +• Reductions in vehicle mass through light-weighting; +• The use of smaller vehicles; +• Operational improvements (e.g., through automatic train operation, load factor -``` improvements). -``` -``` + The measures are discussed in the following mode-specific sub-chapters. -``` -**_6.3.3 Road Transport_** + +**6.3.3 Road Transport** **6.3.3.1 Passenger Cars** @@ -17259,7 +13692,7 @@ As of 2017, 99% of the passenger cars produced worldwide were estimated to be equipped with an ICE: the majority of them gasoline or diesel (95%), 3.4% hybrid -electric vehicles (HEV), and 0.7% PHEV (BCG 2017 ). Only about 0.9% of the cars +electric vehicles (HEV), and 0.7% PHEV (BCG [^2017]:). Only about 0.9% of the cars sold were pure battery electric vehicles (BEV). There are several options for energy @@ -17267,9 +13700,9 @@ efficiency improvements. The fuel consumption reduction potential of petrol engines as a result of engine improvements and hybridization is around 25–30%, -and it is around 15–20% for diesel engines (van Basshuysen and Schäfer 2015 ). +and it is around 15–20% for diesel engines (van Basshuysen and Schäfer [^2015]:). -Maximum efficiencies of 38–40% can be reached by ICE (Schäfer 2016 ), whereas +Maximum efficiencies of 38–40% can be reached by ICE (Schäfer [^2016]:), whereas electric drivetrains have efficiencies of 80–85% (including [re]charging losses). @@ -17277,9 +13710,8 @@ Besides the reduction in engine losses, both lightweight construction and reduct in rolling resistance will result in additional fuel savings. -``` Hybrid systems increase the complexity of powertrains, resulting in higher -``` + masses and higher costs, but they offer additional fuel-saving potentials. Energy can thus be recovered by recuperation during braking in hybridized and all-electric @@ -17314,72 +13746,44 @@ thus be recovered by recuperation during braking in hybridized and all-electric ``` 4.50 ``` -``` MJ/tkm -``` -``` + (2015) -``` + **Fig. 6.12** Final energy demand in freight transport modes in 2015 (world averages) -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 142 vehicles. In BEV and FCEV, advanced battery technologies can reduce the overall - vehicle mass. However, post-lithium technologies, such as lithium–sulfur and solid- - state batteries with increased energy densities and lower systems masses compared - with today’s Li-ion battery technologies, will probably not enter the transport sector - -before 2030 (Schmuch et al. 2018 ). - -``` +before 2030 (Schmuch et al. [^2018]:). In total, we project a 1% increase in annual efficiency on a per passenger/km -``` basis (the same for all drivetrains) for the 5.0  °C and 2.0  °C Scenarios. The effi- - ciency improvements for 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario will be achieved in 2040 under - the 1.5 °C Scenario (Fig. 6.13). **6.3.3.2 Light and Heavy Freight Vehicles** Like passenger cars, trucks are currently driven almost exclusively by conventional - ICE. With a market share of 84% of diesel-fuelled vehicles in 2015 (IEA 2017c), - the global fleet of trucks was predominantly operating on diesel (IEA 2017b). In - some regions, such as the Middle East, trucks are also powered by gasoline to a - considerable degree. Electric drivetrains will enter the truck sector gradually in - coming years because of changes in exhaust emissions legislation and because the - higher efficiency of electric drivetrains compared with ICE will offer economic - advantages to road carriers (Fig. 6.14). Compared with diesel-powered trucks, fuel- - cell electric drivetrains in trucks can substantially reduce the energy intensity per - tkm, and allow higher operating ranges than battery-powered trucks. To achieve - rapid improvements in energy efficiency in the truck sector, the hybridization of - diesel powertrains, especially those operating in stop-and-go intensive urban envi- - -ronments, is promising (Burke and Hengbing 2017 ; Lischke 2017 ). However, after - +ronments, is promising (Burke and Hengbing [^2017]:; Lischke [^2017]:). However, after 2030, the hybrid diesel powertrain will be seen merely as a transitional technology - before the advent of fully electric powertrains (overhead catenary, battery electric, - and fuel-cell electric). Therefore, the development of battery recharging and hydro- - gen refuelling infrastructures will require massive investments in coming years. In ``` @@ -17430,12 +13834,11 @@ Gasoline Diesel Natural GasElectricHydrogen MJ/pkm ``` **Fig. 6.13** World average energy consumption development for passenger cars per powertrain in -2015 ( _left_ ) and 2050 ( _right_ ) +2015 (_left_) and 2050 (_right_) ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 143 ``` @@ -17449,7 +13852,7 @@ head catenary lines along major highways for trolley trucks (hybridized with die fuel cells, or batteries). The first pilot lanes are being developed in Germany, -Sweden, and California (USA) (Siemens 2017 ). +Sweden, and California (USA) (Siemens [^2017]:). **6.3.3.3 Buses** @@ -17471,13 +13874,13 @@ mature technology. In China, battery electric buses are already an integral part public bus transport systems, and the city of Shenzen has had a 100% electric bus -fleet since 2016 (over 16,000 battery electric buses) (Sisson 2018 ). Fuel-cell electric +fleet since 2016 (over 16,000 battery electric buses) (Sisson [^2018]:). Fuel-cell electric buses still lag behind battery electric buses in terms of numbers, but are increasing. In 2017, about 80 fuel-cell electric buses were in operation in Europe (Element -Energy Ltd. 2018 ) and 26 in the USA (Eudy and Post 2017 ). Full battery operation +Energy Ltd. [^2018]:) and 26 in the USA (Eudy and Post [^2017]:). Full battery operation is more difficult to achieve in regional and long-distance buses and coaches, so the @@ -17550,8 +13953,7 @@ MJ/tkm ``` **Fig. 6.14** Average global energy intensities of truck drivetrain technologies in 2015 and 2050 -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 14 4 @@ -17569,9 +13971,8 @@ other regions lagging behind the innovators. We also identified a clear trend to electrification. -``` We project a 0.5% (diesel, diesel-hybrid and natural gas) to 0.8% (electric and -``` + fuel cell hydrogen electric) increase in efficiency on a per passenger per km basis in all three scenarios (Fig. 6.15). @@ -17588,14 +13989,13 @@ electric scooters in the world, with more than 200 million electric scooters on road by 2015, that translates to an electric share of about 70%. -``` Three-wheel vehicles (also country-specifically called ‘rickshaws’ or ‘tuk-tuks’) -``` + have at least two, and usually three or more seats, and are often overloaded in daily traffic. India alone is reported to have 2.5 million rickshaws on the road, each travel- -ling 70–150  km/day (Abu Mallouh et  al. 2010 ). Most three-wheel vehicles are +ling 70–150  km/day (Abu Mallouh et  al. [^2010]:). Most three-wheel vehicles are fuelled by gasoline and some by liquid petroleum gas (LPG), although some com- @@ -17648,13 +14048,12 @@ Natural Gas Electric Hydrogen ``` MJ/pkm ``` -**Fig. 6.15** Average global energy intensities of bus drivetrain technologies in 2015 ( _left_ ) and 2050 -( _right_ ) +**Fig. 6.15** Average global energy intensities of bus drivetrain technologies in 2015 (_left_) and 2050 +(_right_) ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 145 ``` @@ -17662,15 +14061,15 @@ munities incentivize the conversion of two-stroke engines to battery electric th wheel vehicles. Electric tuk-tuks are increasingly emerging in South-East Asia, -together with battery swap stations and solar-powered rickshaws (Moran 2018 ; +together with battery swap stations and solar-powered rickshaws (Moran [^2018]:; -Reddy et al. 2017 ). Thailand has announced that it plans to convert all existing two- +Reddy et al. [^2017]:). Thailand has announced that it plans to convert all existing two- -stroke- powered tuk-tuks to battery electric powertrains within 5  years (Coconuts +stroke-powered tuk-tuks to battery electric powertrains within 5  years (Coconuts -Bangkok 2017 ). In India, too, plans are repeatedly announced to electrify all new +Bangkok [^2017]:). In India, too, plans are repeatedly announced to electrify all new -two- and three-wheel vehicles within the next two decades (Ghoshal 2017 ). +two- and three-wheel vehicles within the next two decades (Ghoshal [^2017]:). ``` The efficiency of battery electric drivetrains is much better than that of conven- @@ -17693,7 +14092,7 @@ catenary and tank levels, respectively). According to the International Railway Association, about 32% of the worldwide rail network was electrified in 2015 (UIC -2017 ). However, in terms of transport performance (pkm or tkm), the ratio of elec- +[^2017]:). However, in terms of transport performance (pkm or tkm), the ratio of elec- tric to diesel is higher because electrified rail lines usually experience more traffic @@ -17703,9 +14102,8 @@ has been the state-of-the-art technology for decades and new lines are almost ex sively equipped with overhead power lines right from the start. -``` However, line electrification, especially of existing lines, is often difficult to -``` + achieve due to unsettled and complex right-of-way issues, narrow tunnel diameters, or simply because line electrification is not economically viable due to low line @@ -17798,46 +14196,30 @@ MJ/pkm ``` 3-Wheeler ``` -**Fig. 6.16** Average global energy intensities of two-wheel vehicles ( _left_ ) and three-wheel vehicles -( _right_ ) by drivetrain technology in 2015 ( _left bar_ ) and 2050 ( _right bar_ ) - -6 Transport Transition Concepts +**Fig. 6.16** Average global energy intensities of two-wheel vehicles (_left_) and three-wheel vehicles +(_right_) by drivetrain technology in 2015 (_left bar_) and 2050 (_right bar_) +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 146 -``` We project a 0.5% annual increase in efficiency on a per passenger per km basis -``` and a 0.8% annual increase in efficiency on a per tonne per km basis (the same for - all drivetrains) in all three scenarios (Fig. 6.17). - -``` The actual efficiency depends on the type of train and the world region. These -``` differences are considered in every transport sub-model and are exemplified in - Fig. 6.18 for freight and passenger trains. **6.3.3.6 Water and Air Transport** Inland navigation will probably remain predominantly powered by ICE in the next - few decades. Therefore, we did not model the electrification of inland navigation - vessels. However, pilot projects using diesel hybrids, batteries, and fuel cells are in - -preparation (DNV GL 2015 ). We assumed the same increase in the share of bio- and - +preparation (DNV GL [^2015]:). We assumed the same increase in the share of bio- and synthetic fuels over time as in the road and rail sectors. - -``` In aviation, energy efficiency can be improved by measures such as winglets, -``` advanced composite-based lightweight structures, powertrain hybridization, and - -enhanced air traffic management systems (Madavan 2016 ; Vyas et  al. 2013 ). We +enhanced air traffic management systems (Madavan [^2016]:; Vyas et  al. [^2013]:). We project a 1% annual increase in efficiency on a per pkm basis. @@ -17889,6 +14271,8 @@ project a 1% annual increase in efficiency on a per pkm basis. ``` D - FreightNG - FreightE - FreightE - Intermodal Freight +``` +``` E - LDHV Freight ``` ``` @@ -17904,7 +14288,8 @@ MJ/tkm 0.24 ``` ``` -0.33 0.28 +0.33 +0.28 ``` ``` 0.64 @@ -17916,7 +14301,8 @@ MJ/tkm 0.20 ``` ``` -0.28 0.23 +0.28 +0.23 ``` ``` 0.00 @@ -17957,8 +14343,8 @@ D - REG/IC NG - REG/IC E - REG/IC E -Metro/LRT E - HST ``` MJ/pkm ``` -**Fig. 6.17** MJ/tkm of freight rail trains ( _left_ ) and MJ/pkm of passenger rail trains ( _right_ ) for 2015 -( _left_ ) and 2050 ( _right_ ) +**Fig. 6.17** MJ/tkm of freight rail trains (_left_) and MJ/pkm of passenger rail trains (_right_) for 2015 +(_left_) and 2050 (_right_) ``` 0 @@ -17980,20 +14366,12 @@ MJ/pkm ``` ``` 1.2 +rotcaf1.4 ``` ``` -r1.4 -otc -af -yc -nei -ciff -eci -fic -eps -noi -ge -R 0 +ycneiciffecificeps +noigeR +0 ``` ``` 0.25 @@ -18025,46 +14403,33 @@ efficiency ``` factor ``` -**Fig. 6.18** Region-specific MJ/tkm and MJ/pkm in 2015 and 2050 for freight rail trains ( _left_ ) and -passenger rail trains ( _right_ ) +**Fig. 6.18** Region-specific MJ/tkm and MJ/pkm in 2015 and 2050 for freight rail trains (_left_) and +passenger rail trains (_right_) ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 147 ``` -**_6.3.4 Replacement of Fossil Fuels by Biofuels and Synfuels_** - -The use of biofuels in the transport sector offers a potential lever to reduce the CO 2 +**6.3.4 Replacement of Fossil Fuels by Biofuels and Synfuels** +The use of biofuels in the transport sector offers a potential lever to reduce the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Biofuels can be used either as a direct drop-in or as admixtures to fossil fuels. Biofuels are widely used, especially in Latin America - (e.g., E85  in Brazil, a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline). Biofuels will be - replaced by synthetic fuels (synfuels) within the next few decades. - -``` In the three scenarios, we use region-specific shares of bio- and synfuels to -``` replace fossil fuels such as diesel, gasoline, and kerosene. Figure 6.19 shows the - scenario-specific band-widths. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Latin America will increase - its proportion of bio- and synfuels to around 15%, whereas in the Middle East, - Mexico, and Eurasia will even not reach a 0.5% share by 2050. Bio-fuel and - especially synfuel shares will remain constant in the 5.0 °C Scenario, whereas they - will increase in the 2.0  °C Scenario between 2030 and 2050 and in the 1.5  °C - Scenario from 2020 onwards. -**_6.3.5 Operational Improvements and Novel Service Concepts_** +**6.3.5 Operational Improvements and Novel Service Concepts** In addition to technical improvements, such as the energy efficiency savings @@ -18118,8 +14483,7 @@ bio- and synfuels in all world regions under all scenarios -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 148 @@ -18143,7 +14507,7 @@ They include traditional car sharing (e.g., Zipcar), free-floating car sharing b nesses (e.g., car2go), and ride-hailing mobility concepts (e.g., Uber, lyft). In Europe, -private ride-sharing mobility platforms, such as _BlaBlaCar_ , are seen as alternative +private ride-sharing mobility platforms, such as _BlaBlaCar_, are seen as alternative passenger car usership schemes. All shared-use mobility concepts have in common @@ -18153,14 +14517,13 @@ car is no longer considered a status symbol, but has become simply a mode of tra port in the Western world. -``` Flexibility and passenger-friendly usability is becoming increasingly important -``` + to users of public transport. Various app-based on-demand mobility services are currently being tested in pilot projects—for example, in the German city of -Schorndorf (Brost et  al. 2018 ). Under these business models, innovative vehicle +Schorndorf (Brost et  al. [^2018]:). Under these business models, innovative vehicle concepts are tested for suitability. Automated battery electric (mini) buses can make @@ -18174,7 +14537,7 @@ usage. However, decision-makers and transport planners must consider the poten- tially detrimental rebound effects of highly personalized automated mobility -(Pakusch et al. 2018 ). For example, an increase in total energy consumption may +(Pakusch et al. [^2018]:). For example, an increase in total energy consumption may occur as a result of the higher transport demand arising from transport options that @@ -18192,16 +14555,15 @@ nology for partially automated trucks is already available and being tested to m it widely available. In the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) automation level -3 (SAE 2018 ), (multi-brand) truck platooning has become possible, which is a +3 (SAE [^2018]:), (multi-brand) truck platooning has become possible, which is a -driver-assistance technology (Janssen et  al. 2015 ). With communication between +driver-assistance technology (Janssen et  al. [^2015]:). With communication between the first truck and the following trucks, the control of the following vehicles is ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 149 ``` @@ -18209,11 +14571,10 @@ handed over to the leading vehicle. Thus, the following vehicles are driving in slipstream and lower air drag is achieved, which can reduce energy consumption by -up to 5% (Daimler 2018 ). +up to 5% (Daimler [^2018]:). -``` In urban freight transport, last-mile delivery concepts based on light commercial -``` + vehicles can help reduce fuel consumption. By fragmenting the transport routes into the main leg and urban traffic (last mile), different vehicle types and modes can be @@ -18264,9 +14625,8 @@ then discuss the rationales for the mode choices that will result in the transpo formance projections. -``` For the 5.0 °C Scenario, we extrapolate current trends in transport performance -``` + until 2050. In relative terms, the transport performance of all transport carriers will increase from current levels. Aviation, passenger car, and commercial road transport @@ -18279,9 +14639,8 @@ efficiency potential of these transport modes is realized, energy intensity per tkm will remain higher than that of trains, ships, or buses. -``` In the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario, we project a strong increase in rail -``` + traffic (starting from a relatively low level) and a slower growth or even a reduction in the use of the other modes in all world regions (Fig. 6.21). The next two sections @@ -18290,34 +14649,27 @@ describe the specific changes and developments for each type of passenger and freight transport. -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 150 -**_6.4.1 Passenger Transport Modes_** - -To reduce transport-related CO 2 emissions, a shift towards low-energy-intensity +**6.4.1 Passenger Transport Modes** +To reduce transport-related CO[^2]: emissions, a shift towards low-energy-intensity modes of transport is required for both ambitious climate-protection scenarios. Travelling by rail is the most energy-efficient form of transport, and therefore we - suggest a strong shift from domestic aviation to trains, especially high-speed trains - and magnetic levitation trains. The assumed shifts from domestic aviation to trains - are shown in Table 6.1. The mode shift potential differs, depending predominantly - on the country-specific distance between origin–destination pairs. The shifts from - international aviation to trains were not analysed because the potential is lower ``` 0% ``` ``` -50 % +50% ``` ``` 100% @@ -18344,10 +14696,7 @@ international aviation to trains were not analysed because the potential is lowe Transpor ``` ``` -t- -``` -``` -Evolutio +t-Evolutio ``` ``` n @@ -18410,16 +14759,14 @@ volution 2.0°C1.5°C ``` **Fig. 6.21** Relative growth in world transport demand (2015  =  100% pkm/tkm) in the 2.0  °C -Scenario ( _left_ ) and 1.5 °C Scenario ( _right_ ) +Scenario (_left_) and 1.5 °C Scenario (_right_) ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 151 ``` -``` (although not zero). The maximum global shift from domestic aviation to trains will be stronger in the 1.5 °C Scenario than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the urban context, investments in public transit systems and limitations on the @@ -18437,7 +14784,7 @@ regions. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, pkm in the OECD countries will predominantly remain on the same level in 2050 as in 2015 due to saturation and sufficiency effects. In all the other world regions, we project a growth in pkm, reflecting economic catch-up processes in the developing world induced by increases in population and -``` + **Table 6.1** Pkm “per km” shift from domestic aviation to trains (in %) ``` @@ -18484,12 +14831,9 @@ pkm-Evolution ``` 5.0 ̊C 2.0 ̊C 1.5 ̊C ``` -``` -Fig. 6.22 Regional pkm development -``` -``` -6 Transport Transition Concepts -``` +**Fig. 6.22** Regional pkm development + +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 152 @@ -18503,24 +14847,21 @@ ence continuous economic growth over the next few decades, pkm will rise slowly compared with that in the 5.0 °C Scenario. -``` Pkm in absolute numbers in 2050 will be highest in the 5.0 °C Scenario. It will -``` + also increase in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, but at a slower rate (Figs. 6.23 and 6.24). -``` Looking more closely at the 2.0  °C Scenario, the transport modes will evolve -``` + differently in the world regions, both quantitatively and in relative terms (Fig. 6.25) due to the diverse mobility patterns. For example, Africa has a high bus share in total pkm today, whereas OECD Europe has a high passenger car share (LDV), but -pkm must decrease by 2020 and in subsequent years to meet the CO 2 reduction - +pkm must decrease by 2020 and in subsequent years to meet the CO[^2]: reduction targets because fleet electrification will not be able to keep up. In parallel, rail pkm - @@ -18617,7 +14958,6 @@ Passenger Train Passenger Car Bus ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 153 ``` @@ -18633,7 +14973,7 @@ buses. In China, the pkm split among modes is more balanced. All modes are pro- jected to rise in pkm in the future. -**_6.4.2 Freight Transport Modes_** +**6.4.2 Freight Transport Modes** Total freight activity is modelled to increase strongly in the 5.0  °C Scenario and @@ -18667,7 +15007,7 @@ other regions, such as China and India (Figs. 6.26 and 6.27). 15 ``` ``` -20152020 2025 20302035 +2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 ``` ``` Passenger Train Passenger Car Bus 2- & 3- wheeler Aviaon (Domesc)Aviaon (Internaonal) @@ -18676,16 +15016,17 @@ Passenger Train Passenger Car Bus 2- & 3- wheeler Aviaon (Domesc)Aviaon (Inte 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` -pkm +pk +m ``` ``` in trillion ``` ``` -20152020 2025 20302035 20402045 2050 +2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` -20152020 20252030 2035 20402045 2050 +2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` OECD Europe Africa @@ -18693,15 +15034,13 @@ OECD Europe Africa ``` China ``` -**Fig. 6.25** Pkm development in OECD Europe ( _left_ ) Africa (middle), and China ( _right_ ) in the +**Fig. 6.25** Pkm development in OECD Europe (_left_) Africa (middle), and China (_right_) in the 2.0 °C Scenario -6 Transport Transition Concepts +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts - -``` 154 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -18741,9 +15080,8 @@ x 10 ``` LDF ADV REF ``` -``` -Fig. 6.26 World tkm development in all scenarios -``` +**Fig. 6.26** World tkm development in all scenarios + ``` 2015 ``` @@ -18763,8 +15101,7 @@ Fig. 6.26 World tkm development in all scenarios 200% ``` ``` -tkm-Evolution -150% +tkm-Evolution150% ``` ``` 100% @@ -18779,22 +15116,19 @@ tkm-Evolution ``` OECD Europe ``` -``` 5.0°C2.0°C 1.5°C USA India ChinaAfrica -``` + **Fig. 6.27** Regional tkm development ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 155 ``` -``` We modelled the shift from high-energy-intensity modes to low-energy-intensity -``` + modes, especially from road to rail freight. This will require substantial investments in additional rail infrastructure. Table 6.2 shows the assumed global tkm shift from @@ -18807,15 +15141,14 @@ the shift to rail freight than light freight trucks (LFT) or medium freight truc (MFT). In the 2.0 °C Scenario, we assume an average shift of 18% for HFT, whereas -in the 1.5 °C Scenario, the shift is projected to reach up to 27%. The ramp- up of +in the 1.5 °C Scenario, the shift is projected to reach up to 27%. The ramp-up of shift potential is slow, because the provision of rail and terminal infrastructures and rolling stock will require considerable time. -``` We modelled tkm for truck (road) and rail freight transport. In the 5.0  °C -``` + Scenario, transport activity is projected to increase clearly until 2050. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, this increase will be slower and the tkm on rail will exceed the @@ -18831,9 +15164,8 @@ other world regions (Fig. 6.29). Rail tkm in China will temporarily decrease sl because of an anticipated medium-term decline in coal transport (Fig. 6.30). -``` In 2015, rail’s share of total tkm differed between regions, but will increase in the -``` + 2.0 °C Scenario in all regions except India, where road tkm will increase more than rail tkm (Fig. 6.31). @@ -18846,7 +15178,7 @@ and powertrains with specific energy demands, and yields the accumulated demands for electricity, hydrogen, gas, and liquid fuels across all world regions between 2015 -and 2050. The transport energy scenario results are outlined in Chap. 8. +and 2050. The transport energy scenario results are outlined in Chap. [^8]:. **Table 6.2** Global tkm shifts from truck to train in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios (in %) @@ -18859,8 +15191,7 @@ MFT (1.5) 0 2–3 5–10 9–14 13–18 13–19 13–19 13–18 HFT (2.0) 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 18 HFT (1.5) 0 2–3 8–18 12–22 16–27 16–27 16–27 18–27 ``` -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 156 @@ -18954,7 +15285,6 @@ India ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 157 ``` @@ -19024,37 +15354,37 @@ India 0% ``` ``` -10 % +10% ``` ``` -20 % +20% ``` ``` -30 % +30% ``` ``` -40 % +40% ``` ``` -50 % +50% ``` ``` -60 % +60% ``` ``` -70 % +70% ``` ``` -80 % +80% ``` ``` -90 % +90% ``` ``` 100% ``` ``` -20152020202520302035204020452050 +2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ``` ``` Share of tkm via @@ -19064,6 +15394,8 @@ rail ``` ``` USA +``` +``` Mexico ``` ``` @@ -19074,6 +15406,8 @@ Latin America ``` ``` OECD Europe +``` +``` Eurasia ``` ``` @@ -19090,8 +15424,7 @@ China ``` **Fig. 6.31** Share of rail tkm in total rail + road tkm in the 2.0 °C Scenario -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts 158 @@ -19130,7 +15463,7 @@ Madavan N (2016) A Nasa Perspective on Electric Propulsion Technologies for Comm Aviation. 5 th UTIAS Workshop on Aviation and Climate Change, Toronto, Canada, 18.-20. May 2016 Moran G (2018) Battery swapping: The future of electric vehicle charging. In: Forbes India. [http://](http://) -[http://www.forbesindia.com/blog/technology/battery-swapping-the-future-of-electric-vehicle-charg-](http://www.forbesindia.com/blog/technology/battery-swapping-the-future-of-electric-vehicle-charg-) +[www.forbesindia.com/blog/technology/battery-swapping-the-future-of-electric-vehicle-charg-](www.forbesindia.com/blog/technology/battery-swapping-the-future-of-electric-vehicle-charg-) ing/. Accessed 8 Oct 2018 Pakusch C, Stevens G, Boden A, Bossauer P (2018) Unintended Effects of Autonomous Driving: A Study on Mobility Preferences in the Future. Sustainability 10:. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ @@ -19152,7 +15485,6 @@ mens.com/press/en/feature/2015/mobility/2015-06-ehighway.php. Accessed 5 Oct 201 ``` J. Pagenkopf et al. ``` - ``` 159 ``` @@ -19174,10 +15506,10 @@ Wiesbaden, Wiesbaden Vyas AD, Patel DM, Bertram KM (2013) Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Prepared for the U.S.  Department of Energy by Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL.  DOE/ -GO-102013- 3706. 82 pp. +GO-102013-3706. 82 pp. **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -19187,14 +15519,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -6 Transport Transition Concepts - +[^6]: Transport Transition Concepts © The Author(s) 2019 161 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_7 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 7 +**Chapter 7** #### Renewable Energy Resource Assessment @@ -19222,24 +15552,23 @@ tials in the literature, and all conclude that the total global technical renewa energy potential is substantially higher than the current global energy demand -(IPCC/SRREN 2011 ). Furthermore, the IPCC has concluded that the _global techni-_ +(IPCC/SRREN [^2011]:). Furthermore, the IPCC has concluded that the _global techni-_ _cal renewable energy potential will not limit continued renewable energy growth_ -(IPCC/SRREN 2011 ). However, the technical potential is also much higher than the +(IPCC/SRREN [^2011]:). However, the technical potential is also much higher than the sustainable potential, which is limited by factors such as land availability and other resource constraints. -``` This chapter provides an overview of various estimates of global renewable -``` + energy (RE) potential. It also provides definitions of different types of RE potential and presents mapping results for the spatial RE resource analysis (see Sect. 1.3 in -Chap. 3)—[R]E-SPACE. The [R]E-SPACE results provide the upper limit for the +Chap. [^3]:)—[R]E-SPACE. The [R]E-SPACE results provide the upper limit for the deployment of all solar and wind technologies used in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C @@ -19254,14 +15583,13 @@ Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia e-mail: kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au - 162 **7.1 Global Renewable Energy Potentials** The International Panel on Climate Change—Special Report on Renewable Energy -Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (IPCC-SRRN 2011 ) defines renewable +Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (IPCC-SRRN [^2011]:) defines renewable energy (RE) as: @@ -19276,20 +15604,18 @@ For the development of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, an additional renewa energy potential—the economic renewable energy potential in a space-constrained -environment (Sect. 3.2 in Chap. 3)—has been analysed and utilized in this study. +environment (Sect. 3.2 in Chap. [^3]:)—has been analysed and utilized in this study. -``` The theoretical and technical potentials of renewable energy are significantly -``` + larger than the current global primary energy demand. The minimum technical -potential of solar energy, shown in Table 7.1 (Turkenburg et al. 2012 ), could supply +potential of solar energy, shown in Table 7.1 (Turkenburg et al. [^2012]:), could supply the global primary energy of 2015 112 times over. -``` However, the technical potential is only a first indication of the extent to -``` + which the resource is available. There are many other limitations, which must be considered. One of the main constraints on deploying renewable energy tech- @@ -19297,8 +15623,8 @@ considered. One of the main constraints on deploying renewable energy tech- ``` Different types of renewable energy potentials have been identified by the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU)—World in Transition: -Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chap. 3, page 44, published in 2003 : -(WBGU 2003 ) (Quote): +Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chap. 3, page 44, published in 2003: +(WBGU 2003) (Quote): ``` ``` “Theoretical potential: The theoretical potential identifies the physical upper limit of @@ -19326,62 +15652,36 @@ ent ecological and socio-economic aspects [...].” (END Quote) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 163 ``` nologies is the available space, especially in densely populated areas where there - are competing claims on land use, such as agriculture and nature conservation, to - name just two. - -``` It is neither necessary nor desirable to exploit the entire technical potential. The -``` implementation of renewable energy must respect sustainability criteria to achieve - a sound future energy supply. Public acceptance is crucial, especially because the - decentralised character of many renewable energy technologies will move systems - closer to consumers. Without public acceptance, market expansion will be difficult - -or even impossible (Teske and Pregger 2015 ). The energy policy framework in a - +or even impossible (Teske and Pregger [^2015]:). The energy policy framework in a particular country or region will have a profound impact on the expansion of renew- - ables, in terms of both the economic situation and the social acceptance of renew- - able energy projects. -**_7.1.1 Bioenergy_** +**7.1.1 Bioenergy** The discrepancy between the technical potential for bioenergy and the likely sus- - tainable potential raises some issues that warrant further discussion. Recent analy- - ses put the technical potential for primary bioenergy supply at 100–300 EJ/year. - -(GEA 2012 ; Smith et al. 2014 ). However, the dedicated use of land for bioenergy— - +(GEA [^2012]:; Smith et al. [^2014]:). However, the dedicated use of land for bioenergy— whether through energy crops or the harvest of forest biomass—raises concerns - over competition for land and the carbon neutrality of bioenergy (Field and Mach - -2017 ; Searchinger et  al. 2017 ). Research that focused on the trade-offs between - +[^2017]:; Searchinger et  al. [^2017]:). Research that focused on the trade-offs between bioenergy production, food security, and biodiversity found that less than 100 EJ / - -year. could be produced sustainably (Boysen et al. 2017 ; Heck et al. 2018 ), although - +year. could be produced sustainably (Boysen et al. [^2017]:; Heck et al. [^2018]:), although such production levels would be dependent on strong global land governance sys- - -tems (Creutzig 2017 ). - -``` -The carbon neutrality of bioenergy is based on the assumption that the CO 2 -``` +tems (Creutzig [^2017]:). +The carbon neutrality of bioenergy is based on the assumption that the CO2 released when bioenergy is combusted is then recaptured when the biomass stock **Table 7.1** Theoretical and technical renewable energy potentials versus utilization in 2015 @@ -19421,171 +15721,109 @@ Total 76,000–294,500 (Total primary energy demand 2015) 555 EJ/year ``` -7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment - +[^7]: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment 16 4 -regrows (EASAC 2017 ). Most land is part of the terrestrial carbon sink or is used - +regrows (EASAC [^2017]:). Most land is part of the terrestrial carbon sink or is used for food production, so that harvesting for bioenergy will either deplete the exist- - -ing carbon stock or displace food production (Searchinger et al. 2015 , 2017). The - +ing carbon stock or displace food production (Searchinger et al. [^2015]:, [^2017]:). The use of harvested forest products (e.g., wood pellets) for bioenergy is not carbon - neutral in the majority of circumstances because an increased harvesting in forests - -leads to a permanent increase in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration (Sterman et al. - -2018 ; Smyth et  al. 2014 ; Ter Mikaelian et  al. 2015 ). Leaving carbon stored in +leads to a permanent increase in the atmospheric CO[^2]: concentration (Sterman et al. +[^2018]:; Smyth et  al. [^2014]:; Ter Mikaelian et  al. [^2015]:). Leaving carbon stored in intact forests can represent a better climate mitigation strategy (DeCicco and -Schlesinger 2018 ), because increased atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 from the - +Schlesinger [^2018]:), because increased atmospheric concentrations of CO[^2]: from the burning of bioenergy may worsen the irreversible impacts of climate change before -the forests can grow back to compensate the increase (EASAC 2017 ; Booth 2018 ; - -Schlesinger 2018 ). - -``` +the forests can grow back to compensate the increase (EASAC [^2017]:; Booth [^2018]:; +Schlesinger [^2018]:). Bioenergy sourced from wastes and residues rather than harvested from dedi- -``` cated land can be considered carbon neutral, because of the ‘carbon opportunity - cost’ per hectare of land (i.e., bioenergy production reduces the carbon-carrying - -capacity of land) (Searchinger et al. 2017 ). The supply of waste and residues as - -a bioenergy source is always inherently limited (Miyake et al. 2012 ). Although - +capacity of land) (Searchinger et al. [^2017]:). The supply of waste and residues as +a bioenergy source is always inherently limited (Miyake et al. [^2012]:). Although in some cases, burning residues can still release more emissions into the atmo- - -sphere in the mid-term (20–40 years) than allowing them to decay (Booth 2018 ), - +sphere in the mid-term (20–40 years) than allowing them to decay (Booth [^2018]:), there is general agreement that specific and limited waste materials from the for- - est industry (for example, black liquor or sawdust) can be used with beneficial - -climate effects (EASAC 2017 ). The use of secondary residues (cascade utiliza- - +climate effects (EASAC [^2017]:). The use of secondary residues (cascade utiliza- tion) may reduce the logistical costs and trade-offs associated with waste use - -(Smith et al. 2014 ). +(Smith et al. [^2014]:). **7.2 Economic Renewable Energy Potential in Space-** - **Constrained Environments** Land is a scarce resource. The use of land for nature conservation, agricultural pro- - duction, residential areas, and industry, as well as for infrastructure, such as roads - and all aspects of human settlements, limits the amount of land available land for - utility-scale solar and wind projects. Furthermore, solar and wind generation require - favourable climatic conditions, so not all available areas are suitable for renewable - power generation. To assess the renewable energy potential of the available area, all - -ten world regions defined in Table 8 in Sect. 1 of Chap. 5 were analysed with the [R] - -E-SPACE methodology described in Sect. 3 of Chap. 3. - -``` +ten world regions defined in Table 8 in Sect. 1 of Chap. [^5]: were analysed with the [R] +E-SPACE methodology described in Sect. 3 of Chap. [^3]:. Given the issues involved in dedicated land-use for bioenergy outlined above, we -``` assume that bioenergy is sourced primarily from cascading residue use and wastes, - and do not analyse the availability of land for dedicated bioenergy crops. - -``` This analysis quantifies the available land area (in square kilometres) in all -``` regions and sub-regions with a defined set of constraints. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 165 ``` -**_7.2.1 Constrains for Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Power_** +**7.2.1 Constrains for Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Power** -**_Plants_** +**Plants** The following land-use areas were excluded from the deployment of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power plants: -- Residential and urban settlements; -- Infrastructure for transport (e.g., rail, roads); -- Industrial areas; -- Intensive agricultural production land; -- Nature conservation areas and national parks; -- Wetlands and swamps; -- Closed grasslands (a land-use type) (GLC 2000 ). +• Residential and urban settlements; +• Infrastructure for transport (e.g., rail, roads); +• Industrial areas; +• Intensive agricultural production land; +• Nature conservation areas and national parks; +• Wetlands and swamps; +• Closed grasslands (a land-use type) (GLC 2000). -**_7.2.2 Mapping Solar and Wind Potential_** +**7.2.2 Mapping Solar and Wind Potential** After the spatial analysis, the remaining available land areas were analysed for their solar and wind resources. For concentrated solar power, a minimum solar radiation -of 2000 kilowatt hours per square meter and year (kWh/m^2 year) is assumed as the +of 2000 kilowatt hours per square meter and year (kWh/m[^2] year) is assumed as the minimum deployment criterion, and onshore wind potentials under an average - annual wind speed of 5 m/s have been omitted. - -``` In the next step, the existing electricity infrastructure of power lines and power -``` -plants was mapped for all regions with WRI ( 2018 ) data. Figure 7.1 provides an - +plants was mapped for all regions with WRI ([^2018]:) data. Figure 7.1 provides an example of the electricity infrastructure in Africa. These maps provide important - insights into the current situation in the power sector, especially the availability of - transmission grids. This is of particular interest for developing countries because it - allows a comparison of the available land areas that have favourable solar and wind - conditions with the infrastructure available to transport electricity to the demand - centres. This assessment is less important for OECD regions because the energy - infrastructure is usually already fairly evenly distributed across the country—except - in some parts of Canada, the United States, and Australia. For some countries, cov- - erage is not 100% complete due to a lack of public data sources. This is particularly - true for renewable energy generation assets such as solar, wind, biomass, geother- - mal energy, and hydropower resources. - -``` Figure 7.2 shows the solar potential for utility-scale solar power plants—both -``` solar PV and concentrated solar power—in Africa. The scale from light yellow to - dark red shows the solar radiation intensity: the darker the area, the better the solar - resource. The green lines show existing transmission lines. All areas that are not - yellow or red are unsuitable for utility-scale solar because there is conflicting land - use and/or there are no suitable solar resources. Africa provides a very extreme +example of very good solar resources far from existing infrastructure. While roof-top -example of very good solar resources far from existing infrastructure. While roof- top - -7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment - +[^7]: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment 166 @@ -19597,108 +15835,61 @@ mission lines ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 167 ``` solar PV can be deployed virtually anywhere and only needs roof space on any sort - of building, bulk power supply via solar—to produce synthetic and hydrogen - fuels—requires a certain minimum of utility-scale solar applications. The vast solar - potential in the north of Africa—as well as in the Middle East—has been earmarked - for the production of synthetic and hydrogen fuels and for the export of renewable - electricity (via sub-sea cable) to Europe in the long-term energy scenarios in the - 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. - -``` Europe, in contrast, is densely populated and has fewer favourable utility-scale -``` solar sites because of both its lower solar radiation and conflicting land-use patterns. - Figure 7.3 shows Europe’s potential for utility-scale solar power plants. Only the - yellow and red dots across Europe, most visible in the south of Spain, south of the - Alps, south-west Italy, and the Asian part of Turkey, mark regions suitable for - -utility- scale solar, whereas roof-top solar can be deployed economically across - +utility-scale solar, whereas roof-top solar can be deployed economically across Europe, including Scandinavia. - -``` However, Africa and Europe are in a good position, from a technical point of -``` view, to form an economic partnership for solar energy exchange. - -``` The situation for onshore wind power differs from that for solar energy. The best -``` potential is in areas that are more than 30° north and south of the equator, whereas - the actual equatorial zone is less suitable for wind installation. North America has - significant wind resources and the resource is still largely untapped, even though - there is already a mature wind industry in Canada and the USA. Figure 7.4 shows - the existing and potential wind power sites. While significant wind power **Fig. 7.3** Europe’s potential for utility-scale solar power plants -7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment - +[^7]: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment 168 installations are already in operation, mainly in the USA, there are still very large - untapped resources across the entire north American continent, in Canada and the - mid-west of the USA. - -``` Unlike the situation in the USA, wind power in Latin America is still in its initial -``` stages and the industry, which has great potential, is still in its infancy. Figure 7.5 - shows the existing wind farm locations—marked with blue dots—and the potential - wind farm sites, especially in coastal regions and the entire southern parts of - Argentina and Chile. - -``` The available solar and wind potentials are distributed differently across all -``` world regions. Whereas some regions have significantly more resources than others, - all regions have enough potential to supply their demand with local solar and wind - resources—together with other renewable energy resources, such as hydro-, bio-, - and geothermal energies. - -``` Table 7.2 provides an overview of the key results of the [R]E-SPACE analysis. -``` The available areas (in square kilometres) are based on the space-constrained - -assumptions (see Sect. 2.1 in Chap. 7). The installed capacities are calculated based - +assumptions (see Sect. 2.1 in Chap. [^7]:). The installed capacities are calculated based on the following space requirements (Table 7.2): -- Solar photovoltaic: 1 MW = 0.04 km^2 -- Concentrated solar power: 1 MW = 0.04 km^2 -- Onshore wind: 1 MW = 0.2 km^2 +• Solar photovoltaic: 1 MW = 0.04 km[^2] +• Concentrated solar power: 1 MW = 0.04 km[^2] +• Onshore wind: 1 MW = 0.2 km[^2] -``` Note: Mapping Eurasia was not possible because the data files were -``` incomplete. **Fig. 7.4** OECD North America: existing and potential wind power sites @@ -19706,7 +15897,6 @@ incomplete. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 169 ``` @@ -19735,7 +15925,7 @@ installations ``` Space potential -[km^2 ] [GW] [km^2 ] [GW] +[km[^2]] [GW] [km[^2]] [GW] OECD North America @@ -19781,8 +15971,7 @@ Alaska ``` (continued) ``` -7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment - +[^7]: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment 170 @@ -19809,7 +15998,7 @@ installations ``` Space potential -[km^2 ] [GW] [km^2 ] [GW] +[km[^2]] [GW] [km[^2]] [GW] Latin America ``` @@ -19908,7 +16097,7 @@ Africa ``` ``` East – Africa 6,378,561 159,464 6,980,497 34,902 -West – Africa8,336,960 208,424 8,669,628 43,348 +West – Africa 8,336,960 208,424 8,669,628 43,348 Central – Africa ``` @@ -19932,7 +16121,6 @@ Africa ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 171 ``` @@ -19961,7 +16149,7 @@ installations ``` Space potential -[km^2 ] [GW] [km^2 ] [GW] +[km[^2]] [GW] [km[^2]] [GW] Non- OECD Asia @@ -20071,8 +16259,7 @@ and North (NT) ``` 2,813,791 70,345 2,762,499 13,812 ``` -7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment - +[^7]: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment 172 @@ -20105,7 +16292,7 @@ Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Popp, A., 2018. Biomass-based negative emission oncile with planetary boundaries. Nature Climate Change 8, 151–155. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41558-017-0064-y Miyake, S., et al., 2012. Land-use and environmental pressures resulting from current and future -bioenergy crop expansion: A review. _Journal of Rural Studies_ , 28(4), pp. 650–658. +bioenergy crop expansion: A review. _Journal of Rural Studies_, 28(4), pp. 650–658. IPCC, 2011, IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation; [O.  Edenhofer, R.  Pichs-Madruga, Y.  Sokona, K.  Seyboth, P.  Matschoss, S.  Kadner, T.  Zwickel, P.  Eickemeier, G.  Hansen,S.  Schlömer, C. @@ -20132,7 +16319,6 @@ Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 173 ``` @@ -20147,31 +16333,33 @@ Change Mitigation, Chapter 1, Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernme on Climate Change [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S.  Kadner, T.  Zwickel, P.  Eickemeier, G.  Hansen, S.  Schlömer, C. von Stechow (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1075 pp. + Sterman, J.D., Siegel, L., Rooney-Varga, J.N., 2018. Does replacing coal with wood lower CO 2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy. Environmental Research Letters 13, + 015007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa512 Ter-Mikaelian, M.T., Colombo, S.J. & Chen, J., 2015. The Burning Question: Does Forest Bioenergy Reduce Carbon Emissions? A Review of Common Misconceptions about Forest -Carbon Accounting. _Journal of Forestry_ , 113(1), pp. 57–68. +Carbon Accounting. Journal of Forestry, 113(1), pp. 57–68. Turkenburg, Arent et  al 2012, Turkenburg, W.  C., D.  J. Arent, R.  Bertani, A.  Faaij, M.  Hand, W. Krewitt, E. D. Larson, J. Lund, M. Mehos, T. Merrigan, C. Mitchell, J. R. Moreira, W. Sinke, V.  Sonntag-O’Brien, B.  Thresher, W. van Sark, E.  Usher and E.  Usher, 2012: Chapter 11  - Renewable Energy. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 761–900. -Teske, Pregger 2015, Teske, S, Pregger, T., Naegler, T., Simon, S., _Energy [R]evolution  - -A sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015_ , Greenpeace International with the German +Teske, Pregger 2015, Teske, S, Pregger, T., Naegler, T., Simon, S., Energy [R]evolution  - +A sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, Greenpeace International with the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, System Analysis and Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany, https://www.scribd.com/document/333565532/ Energy-Revolution-2015-Full -WBGU 2003, _World in Transition Towards Sustainable Energy Systems;_ German Advisory +WBGU 2003, World in Transition Towards Sustainable Energy Systems; German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), H. Graßl, J. Kokott, M. Kulessa, J. Luther, F. Nuscheler, R. Sauerborn, H.-J. Schellnhuber, R. Schubert, E.-D. Schulze WRI 2018, World Resource Institute (WRI), Global Power Plant Database, web-based database, -data download June 2018, [http://datasets.wri.org/dataset/globalpowerplantdatabase](http://datasets.wri.org/dataset/globalpowerplantdatabase) +data download June 2018, http://datasets.wri.org/dataset/globalpowerplantdatabase **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -20181,14 +16369,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -7 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment - +[^7]: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment © The Author(s) 2019 175 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_8 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 8 +**Chapter 8** #### Energy Scenario Results @@ -20246,12 +16432,10 @@ Department of Vehicle Systems and Technology Assessment, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Vehicle Concepts (FK), Pfaffenwaldring, Germany e-mail: johannes.pagenkopf@dlr.de; Bent.vandenAdel@dlr.de; oezcan.deniz@dlr.de - 176 -``` The following global summary of the regional results is presented in the same -``` + structure as that used for individual regions. Consistent with the regional results, these tables do not include the demand and supply details for the bunker fuels used @@ -20260,11 +16444,11 @@ in international aviation and navigation. Section 8.2 outlines a global demand a supply scenario for renewable bunker fuels in the long term, including estimates of -additional CO 2 emissions from fossil bunker fuels between 2015 and 2050. +additional CO[^2]: emissions from fossil bunker fuels between 2015 and 2050. **8.1 Global: Long-Term Energy Pathways** -**_8.1.1 Global: Projection of Overall Energy Intensity_** +**8.1.1 Global: Projection of Overall Energy Intensity** Combining the assumptions for the power, heat, and fuel demands for all sectors @@ -20322,18 +16506,17 @@ final energy intensity [MJ/$GDP] ``` 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.1** Global: projection of final energy (per $ GDP) intensity by scenario +## Fig. 8.1 Global: projection of final energy (per $ GDP) intensity by scenario ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 177 ``` -**_8.1.2 Global: Final Energy Demand by Sector_** +**8.1.2 Global: Final Energy Demand by Sector** -**_(Excluding Bunkers)_** +**(Excluding Bunkers)** Combining the assumptions for population growth, GDP growth, and energy inten- @@ -20363,9 +16546,8 @@ efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will save 13,200 TWh/ and 13,700 TWh/year, respectively, by 2050. -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be about ``` @@ -20404,11 +16586,11 @@ Residential & other sectors Industry Transport ``` -**Fig. 8.2** Global: projection of total final energy demand by sector in the scenarios (without non- +## Fig. 8.2 Global: projection of total final energy demand by sector in the scenarios (without non- + energy use or heat from combined heat and power [CHP] autoproducers) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 178 @@ -20428,9 +16610,8 @@ higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the gross electricit will increase to a maximum of 65,300 TWh/year in 2050. -``` The efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the -``` + electricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equivalent to about 85.7 EJ/year and 95.4 EJ/year, respectively, is avoided @@ -20439,7 +16620,7 @@ through efficiency gains by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario (Figs. 8.3 8.4, 8.5, and 8.6). -**_8.1.3 Global: Electricity Generation_** +**8.1.3 Global: Electricity Generation** The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing @@ -20491,12 +16672,11 @@ Residential & other sectors ``` Industry ``` -**Fig. 8.3** Global: development of gross electricity demand by sector in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.3 Global: development of gross electricity demand by sector in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 179 ``` @@ -20549,7 +16729,7 @@ PJ/yr Rail Road (PC & LDV) Road (HDV) Domestic Navigation Domestic Aviation Efficiency ``` -**Fig. 8.4** Global: development of final energy demand for transport by mode in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.4 Global: development of final energy demand for transport by mode in the scenarios ``` 0 @@ -20579,14 +16759,11 @@ PJ/yr ``` Industry Residential & other sectors Efficiency ``` -**Fig. 8.5** Global: development of heat demand by sector in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.5 Global: development of heat demand by sector in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results **Table 8.1** Global: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW (°C) 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 1202 1420 1558 1757 1951 2.0 1202 1386 1416 1473 1525 @@ -20601,8 +16778,8 @@ Geothermal 5.0 14 20 26 41 62 2.0 14 49 125 348 557 1.5 14 53 147 356 525 PV 5.0 225 785 1031 1422 2017 -2.0 225 2194 4158 8343 12,306 -1.5 225 2829 5133 10,017 12,684 +2.0 [^225]: [^2194]: [^4158]: [^8343]: 12,306 +1.5 [^225]: [^2829]: [^5133]: 10,017 12,684 CSP 5.0 4 13 20 39 64 2.0 4 69 361 1346 2062 1.5 4 92 474 1540 1990 @@ -20610,9 +16787,9 @@ Ocean 5.0 0 1 3 9 22 2.0 0 22 82 307 512 1.5 0 22 80 295 450 Total 5.0 1971 3285 3902 4899 6195 -2.0 1971 5604 9478 18,243 25,584 -1.5 1971 6644 11,420 20,980 25,723 -``` +2.0 [^1971]: [^5604]: [^9478]: 18,243 25,584 +1.5 [^1971]: [^6644]: 11,420 20,980 25,723 + ``` 0 ``` @@ -20674,8 +16851,7 @@ Industry fuels Industry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.6** Global: development of the final energy demand by sector in the scenarios - +## Fig. 8.6 Global: development of the final energy demand by sector in the scenarios ``` 181 @@ -20692,41 +16868,27 @@ lead to a high proportion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 38% and 46%, respectively, by 2030 and 64% and 65%, respectively, by 2050. -**_8.1.4 Global: Future Costs of Electricity Generation_** +**8.1.4 Global: Future Costs of Electricity Generation** Figure 8.8 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated average - +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated average electricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 6 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach - 10.6 ct/kWh. The generation costs will also increase in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C - Scenarios until 2030, when they will reach 9 ct/kWh, and then drop to 7 ct/kWh by 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the generation costs will be around 3.5 ct/kWh - lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 2050. Note that these estimates of generation - costs do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, stor- - age, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause the total electricity supply costs to increase from today’s $1560 billion/year to - around $5500 billion/year in 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the total supply - costs will be $5050 billion/year in 2050. Therefore, the long-term costs for electric- - ity supply in both alternative scenarios are about 8% lower than in the 5.0  °C - Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the electrification of - heating and mobility. ``` @@ -20754,7 +16916,7 @@ heating and mobility. 70,000 ``` ``` -5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C +5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -20776,16 +16938,13 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.7** Global: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.7 Global: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 182 -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs (without including CO 2 emis- -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs (without including CO[^2]: emis- sion costs) will increase in the 5.0 °C case to only 7.9 ct/kWh. The generation costs will increase in the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030 to 7.7 ct/kWh and to a maximum of @@ -20802,26 +16961,18 @@ in the 5.0 °C Scenario, again by around 2040. In 2050, the generation costs in alternative scenarios will be 0.8–0.9 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. If the -CO 2 costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will - +CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $4150 billion/year in 2050. -**_8.1.5 Global: Future Investments in the Power Sector_** +**8.1.5 Global: Future Investments in the Power Sector** In the 2.0  °C Scenario, around $49,000 billion in investment will be required for - power generation between 2015 and 2050—including for additional power plants to - produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels and for the plant replacement costs at the end - of their economic lifetimes. This value will be equivalent to approximately $1360 - billion per year on average, and is $28,600 billion more than in the 5.0  °C case - ($20,400 billion). An investment of around $51,000 billion for power generation - will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this - will be an investment of $1420 billion per year. In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the ``` @@ -20878,54 +17029,36 @@ billion $ ct/kWh Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.8** Global: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation +## Fig. 8.8 Global: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation + costs in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 183 ``` investment in conventional power plants will comprises around 40% of total cumu- - lative investments, whereas approximately 60% will be invested in renewable power - generation and co-generation (Fig. 8.9). - -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, the world will shift almost 94% (95%) -``` of its total energy investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil - fuel share of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power - plants that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $26,300 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $730 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings in the - 2.0  °C Scenario will be equivalent to 90% of the additional energy investments - compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will - add up to $28,800 billion, or $800 billion per year. -**_8.1.6 Global: Energy Supply for Heating_** +**8.1.6 Global: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 59%, from - 151 EJ/year in 2015 to around 240 EJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, energy - efficiency measures will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 36% in - 2050, relative to that in the 5.0 °C Scenario, and by 40% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. Today, - renewables supply around 20% of the global final energy demand for heating. The ``` @@ -20943,15 +17076,15 @@ Renewable 53% ``` ``` -5.0°C: 2015-205 0 +5.0°C: 2015-2050 ``` ``` -total 20,40 0 +total 20,400 billion $ ``` ``` Fossil (incl.H2) -5%Nuclear +5% Nuclear 1% CHP 9% @@ -20983,33 +17116,21 @@ billion $ total 51,100 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.9** Global: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.9 Global: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 184 main contribution is from biomass. Renewable energy will provide 42% of the world’s - total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 56% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In - both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total heat demand in 2050. - -``` Figure 8.10 shows the development of different technologies for heating world- -``` wide over time, and Table 8.2 provides the resulting renewable heat supply for all - scenarios. Until 2030, biomass will remain the main contributor. In the long-term, - the growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead to a biomass - share in total heating of 33% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 30% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. - -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 15,900 PJ/year in ``` @@ -21098,22 +17219,20 @@ Solar heating Biomass Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.10** Global: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.10 Global: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios **Table 8.2** Global: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) - -``` in PJ/year (°C) 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 25,470 27,643 28,878 31,568 34,564 2.0 25,470 32,078 35,134 38,187 37,536 1.5 25,470 33,493 36,927 36,385 30,151 Solar heating 5.0 1246 2091 2754 4353 6220 -2.0 1246 6485 12,720 23,329 27,312 -1.5 1246 7656 14,153 21,665 24,725 +2.0 [^1246]: [^6485]: 12,720 23,329 27,312 +1.5 [^1246]: [^7656]: 14,153 21,665 24,725 Geothermal heat and heat pumps -``` + ``` 5.0 563 804 925 1293 1823 2.0 563 4212 8956 21,115 33,123 @@ -21128,7 +17247,6 @@ Total 5.0 27,278 30,538 32,557 37,214 42,608 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 185 ``` @@ -21140,7 +17258,7 @@ electricity for heating will also increase by a factor of 4.2–4.5 between 2015 the 1.5 °C Scenario (Table 8.2). -**_8.1.7 Global: Future Investments in the Heating Sector_** +**8.1.7 Global: Future Investments in the Heating Sector** The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 @@ -21158,7 +17276,7 @@ lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0 °C Scenario) will result in a lower a age annual investment of around $344 billion per year (Table 8.3, Fig. 8.11). -**_8.1.8 Global: Transport_** +**8.1.8 Global: Transport** The energy demand in the transport sector will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by @@ -21185,13 +17303,12 @@ Solar heating 5.0 378 615 781 1175 1652 Heat pumps 5.0 89 126 144 199 270 2.0 89 497 906 1821 2857 1.5 89 514 967 1726 2430 -Totala **5.0 10,688 10,928 10,871 10,805 10,923 -2.0 10,688 12,469 13,741 15,910 16,036 -1.5 10,688 13,026 14,290 14,517 13,086** -a Excluding direct electric heating - -8 Energy Scenario Results +Totala **5.0 10,688 10,928 10,871 10,805 10,923** +**2.0 10,688 12,469 13,741 15,910 16,036** +**1.5 10,688 13,026 14,290 14,517 13,086** +aExcluding direct electric heating +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 186 @@ -21201,9 +17318,8 @@ of 74% (or 108,000 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0  °C case (Table 8.4 Fig. 8.12). -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 12% (2700 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` + total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 47% (6500 TWh/year). In 2050, around 8430 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the @@ -21214,9 +17330,8 @@ annual electricity demand will be about 5200 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a hydrogen demand of 6850 PJ/year by 2050. -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0 °C Scenario to a maximum of around 12,000 PJ/ -``` + year Therefore, by around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be introduced, with a maximum amount of 5820 PJ/year in 2050. Because of the lower @@ -21300,32 +17415,27 @@ heat pumps 1.5°C: 2015-2050 ``` ``` -total 12, 400 billion $ +total 12,400 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.11** Global: development of investment in renewable heat-generation technologies in the +### Fig. 8.11 Global: development of investment in renewable heat-generation technologies in the + scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 187 ``` -**_8.1.9 Global: Development of CO 2 Emissions_** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the annual global energy-related CO 2 emissions will increase +**8.1.9 Global: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the annual global energy-related CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 40%, from 31,180 Mt. in 2015 to more than 43,500 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall - to 7070 Mt. in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 2650 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, - with further reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the cumula- - -tive CO 2 emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 1388 Gt. In contrast, in the - +tive CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 1388 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period 2015–2050 will be 587 Gt and 450 Gt, respectively. @@ -21441,25 +17551,19 @@ Biofuels Natural Gas Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.12** Global: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.12 Global: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 188 -``` -Thus, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0 °C Scenario -``` +Thus, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and by 68% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid reduction - in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, - the reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the ‘Residential - and other’ and ‘Transport’ sectors (Fig. 8.13). -**_8.1.10 Global: Primary Energy Consumption_** +**8.1.10 Global: Primary Energy Consumption** The levels of primary energy consumption based on the assumptions discussed @@ -21475,9 +17579,8 @@ demand will decrease by 48% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario (5.0 °C: 837 EJ EJ in 2050) due to the lower final energy demand and lower conversion losses. -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` + will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 35% in 2030 and 92% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a @@ -21561,8 +17664,7 @@ cumulated emissions [Gt] CO ``` ``` -2 -emissions [Mt/yr] +emissions [Mt/yr]2 ``` ``` 'Power generation' 'Other Conversion' @@ -21571,13 +17673,13 @@ emissions [Mt/yr] 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.13** Global: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (since +## Fig. 8.13 Global: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions (since + 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 189 ``` @@ -21607,18 +17709,13 @@ was in the order of 16,000 PJ, of which 7400 PJ was for aviation and 8600 PJ for navigation. Between 2009 and 2015, bunker fuel consumption increased by 13%. -The annual CO 2 emissions from bunker fuels accounted for 1.3 Gt in 2015, approxi- - -mately 4% of global energy-related CO 2 emissions. In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the +The annual CO[^2]: emissions from bunker fuels accounted for 1.3 Gt in 2015, approxi- +mately 4% of global energy-related CO[^2]: emissions. In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the development of the final energy demand for bunker fuels is assumed to be that of the - IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 Current Policies scenario. This will lead to a fur- - ther increase of 120% in the demand for bunker fuels until 2050 compared with that - -in the base year, 2015. Because no substitution with ‘green’ fuels is assumed, CO 2 - +in the base year, 2015. Because no substitution with ‘green’ fuels is assumed, CO2 emissions will rise by the same order of magnitude. ``` @@ -21660,27 +17757,45 @@ PJ/yr ``` ``` Efficiency +``` +``` Ocean energy +``` +``` Geothermal +``` +``` Solar +``` +``` Biomass +``` +``` Wind +``` +``` Hydro +``` +``` Natural gas +``` +``` Crude oil +``` +``` Coal +``` +``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.14** Global: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the +## Fig. 8.14 Global: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the + scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results - -``` 190 -``` -``` + Although the use of hydrogen and electricity in aviation is technically feasible (at least for regional transport) and synthetic gas use in navigation is an additional option under discussion, this analysis uses a conservative approach and assumes that bunker @@ -21700,14 +17815,14 @@ in more regions, with lower exports from the supply regions mentioned above, in 2.0  °C Scenario. Another assumption is that, consistent with the regional 1.5  °C Scenarios, the biomass consumption for energy supply will decrease in the long term, whereas power-to-liquid will continue to increase as the main option for international -aviation and navigation. Finally, the expansion of the power- to- liquid infrastructure +aviation and navigation. Finally, the expansion of the power-to-liquid infrastructure for the generation of bunker fuel will be closely associated with the assumed devel- opment of regional synthetic fuel demand and generation for transportation in each -world region. Figure 8.15 also shows the resulting cumulative CO 2 emissions from +world region. Figure 8.15 also shows the resulting cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from bunker fuel consumption between 2015 and 2050, which amount to around 70 Gt in the 5.0  °C case, 30 Gt in the 2.0  °C Scenario, and 21 Gt in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Table 8.5 provides more-detailed data for the three bunker fuel scenarios. -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -21774,15 +17889,17 @@ final energy for bunkers [PJ/yr] ``` ``` Fossil fuels Biofuels Synfuels (liquid) Savings +``` +``` 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.15** Global: scenario of bunker fuel demand for aviation and navigation and the resulting -cumulative CO 2 emissions +## Fig. 8.15 Global: scenario of bunker fuel demand for aviation and navigation and the resulting + +cumulative CO[^2]: emissions ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 191 ``` @@ -22036,7 +18153,7 @@ PJ/year CO ``` ``` -emissions 2 +emissions2 ``` ``` Mt/year @@ -22455,8 +18572,7 @@ TWh/year ``` 4375 (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 192 @@ -22500,7 +18616,7 @@ Unit CO ``` ``` -emissions 2 +emissions2 ``` ``` Mt/year @@ -23013,7 +19129,7 @@ TWh/year CO ``` ``` -emissions 2 +emissions2 ``` ``` Mt/year @@ -23045,13 +19161,11 @@ Mt/year ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 193 ``` -``` The production of synthetic fuels will cause significant additional electricity -``` + demand and a corresponding expansion of the renewable power generation capacities. In the case of liquid bunker fuels, these additional renewable power @@ -23066,7 +19180,7 @@ of electrolyser capacity and hydrogen storage to allow not only flexibility in t power system, but also high utilization rates of the downstream synthesis processes -(e.g., via Fischer- Tropsch plants). Other options for renewable synthetic fuel pro- +(e.g., via Fischer-Tropsch plants). Other options for renewable synthetic fuel pro- duction are solar thermal chemical processes, which directly use high-temperature @@ -23078,11 +19192,10 @@ The economic potential, under space constraints, of utility solar PV, concentrat solar power (CSP), and onshore wind was analysed with the methodology described -in Sect. 3.3 of Chap. 3. +in Sect. 3.3 of Chap. [^3]:. -``` The 2.0 °C Scenario utilizes only a fraction of the available economic potential -``` + of the assumed suitable land for utility-scale solar PV and concentrated solar power plants. This estimate does not include solar PV roof-top systems, which have sig- @@ -23093,9 +19206,8 @@ rate of 8.5%, followed by Europe (2.0 °C) and the Middle East (2.0 °C), with and 4.6%, respectively. -``` Onshore wind potential has been utilized to a larger extent than solar potential. -``` + In the 2.0 °C Scenario, space-constrained India will utilize more than half of onshore wind, followed by Europe with 20%. This wind potential excludes offshore wind, @@ -23104,9 +19216,8 @@ which has significant potential but the mapping for the offshore wind potential beyond the scope of this analysis (Table 8.6). -``` The 1.5  °C Scenario is based on the accelerated deployment of all renewables -``` + and the more ambitious implementation of efficiency measures. Therefore, the total installed capacity of solar and wind generators by 2050 is not necessarily larger than @@ -23121,8 +19232,7 @@ synthetic bunker fuels from hydrogen to supply global transport energy for inter tional shipping and aviation. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 194 @@ -23600,78 +19710,46 @@ OECD Pacific ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 195 ``` **8.4 Global: Power Sector Analysis** The long-term global and regional energy results were used to conduct a detailed - -power sector analysis with the methodology described in Sect. 3.5 of Chap. 3. Both - +power sector analysis with the methodology described in Sect. 3.5 of Chap. [^3]:. Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios rely on high shares of variable solar and wind genera- - tion. The aim of the power sector analysis was to gain insight into the power system - stability for each region (subdivided into up to eight sub-regions) and to gauge the - extent to which power grid interconnections, dispatch generation services, and storage - technologies are required. The results presented in this chapter are projections calcu- - lated from publicly available data. Detailed load curves for some of the sub-regions - and countries discussed in this chapter were not available and, in some cases, the rel- - evant information is classified. Therefore, the outcomes of the [R]E 24/7 model are - estimates and require further research with more detailed localized data, especially - regarding the available power grid infrastructure. Furthermore, power sector projec- - tions for developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia, assume unilateral access - to energy services for the residential sector by 2050, and they require transmission and - distribution grids in regions where there are none at the time of writing. Further - research—in cooperation with local utilities and government representatives—is - required to develop a more detailed understanding of power infrastructure needs. -**_8.4.1 Global: Development of Power Plant Capacities_** +**8.4.1 Global: Development of Power Plant Capacities** The size of the global market for renewable power plants will increase significantly - under the 2.0  °C Scenario. The annual market for solar PV power must increase - -from close to 100 GW in 2017 (REN21-GSR 2018 ) by a factor of 4.5 to an average - +from close to 100 GW in 2017 (REN21-GSR [^2018]:) by a factor of 4.5 to an average of 454 GW by 2030. The onshore wind market must expand to 172 GW by 2025, - -about three times higher than in 2017 (REN21-GSR 2018 ). The offshore wind mar- - +about three times higher than in 2017 (REN21-GSR [^2018]:). The offshore wind mar- ket will continue to increase in importance within the renewable power sector. By - 2050, offshore wind installations will increase to 32 GW annually—11 times higher - -than in 2017 (GWEC 2018 ). Concentrated solar power plants will play an important - +than in 2017 (GWEC [^2018]:). Concentrated solar power plants will play an important role in dispatchable solar electricity generation for the supply of bulk power, espe- - cially for industry, and will provide secured capacity to power systems. By 2030, - the annual CSP market must increase to 78 GW, compared with 3 GW in 2020 and - only 0.1 GW in 2017 (REN21-GSR2018) (Table 8.7). - -``` In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the phase-out of coal and lignite power plants is acceler- -``` ated and a total capacity of 618 GW—equivalent to approximately 515 power sta- - -tions^1 —must end operation by 2025. The replacement power must come from a +tions[^1]—must end operation by 2025. The replacement power must come from a variety of renewable power generators, both variable and dispatchable. The annual @@ -23679,10 +19757,10 @@ market for solar PV must be around 30% higher in 2050 than it was in 2025, as in 2.0 °C Scenario. While the onshore wind market also has an accelerated trajectory -(^1) Assumption: average size of one coal power plant side contains multiple generation blocks, with +[^1]:Assumption: average size of one coal power plant side contains multiple generation blocks, with a total of 1200 MW on average for each location. -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 196 @@ -23694,7 +19772,7 @@ projects. The same is assumed for CSP plants, which are utility-scale projects a significantly higher deployment seems unlikely in the time remaining until 2025. -**_8.4.2 Global: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities_** +**8.4.2 Global: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities** On a global scale, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the shares of variable renew- @@ -23722,7 +19800,7 @@ power plants will have been converted to operate with hydrogen and synthetic fue to avoid stranded investments and to achieve higher quantities of dispatch power -capacity. Table 8.8 shows the increasing shares of variable renewable power +capacity. Table  8.8 shows the increasing shares of variable renewable power **Table 8.7** World: average annual change in the installed power plant capacity @@ -23736,12 +19814,12 @@ capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal 2 − 107 − 96 − 119 − 68 − 12 -Lignite − 25 − 34 − 16 − 9 − 3 − 1 -Gas 41 70 44 72 − 199 − 28 +Hard coal 2 −107 −96 −119 −68 −12 +Lignite −25 −34 −16 −9 −3 −1 +Gas 41 70 44 72 −199 −28 Hydrogen-gas 1 17 12 57 240 246 -Oil/diesel − 18 − 32 − 29 − 28 − 6 − 2 -Nuclear − 15 − 27 − 23 − 24 − 7 − 10 +Oil/diesel −18 −32 −29 −28 −6 −2 +Nuclear −15 −27 −23 −24 −7 −10 Biomass 24 40 26 29 25 21 Hydro 19 10 7 7 7 8 Wind (onshore) 121 307 273 333 242 158 @@ -23760,18 +19838,15 @@ co-generation ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 197 ``` **Table 8.8** Global: power system shares by technology group - -``` Power generation structure in 10 world regions 2.0 °C 1.5 °C -``` + ``` World ``` @@ -23839,18 +19914,15 @@ OECD Pacific 2015 4% 34% 61% 4% 34% 61% Global average ``` -``` -2015 4% 35% 60% 4% 34% 62% -2030 39% 32% 29% 47% 32% 21% -2050 64% 29% 7% 60% 27% 13% -``` +[^2015]: 4% 35% 60% 4% 34% 62% +[^2030]: 39% 32% 29% 47% 32% 21% +[^2050]: 64% 29% 7% 60% 27% 13% Note: Variable renewable generation shares in long term energy pathways and power sector analy- sis differ due to different calculation methods. The power sector analysis results are based on the sum of up to eight sub-regional simulations, while the long term energy pathway is based on the regional average generation excluding variations in solar and wind resources within that region -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 198 @@ -23862,12 +19934,12 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -World 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +World 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]49.5% 37% 37% 33% 31% 34% 30% 33% 31% +[%/yr] 49.5% 37% 37% 33% 31% 34% 30% 33% 31% ``` ``` Limited @@ -23876,7 +19948,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]58.7% 34% 34% 24% 16% 25% 10% 17% 9% +[%/yr] 58.7% 34% 34% 24% 16% 25% 10% 17% 9% ``` ``` Limited @@ -23884,74 +19956,53 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]36.9% 45% 45% 42% 36% 58% 31% 39% 34% +[%/yr] 36.9% 45% 45% 42% 36% 58% 31% 39% 34% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]42.9% 28% 28% 19% 15% 33% 15% 19% 19% +[%/yr] 42.9% 28% 28% 19% 15% 33% 15% 19% 19% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]43.1% 56% 56% 54% 47% 42% 39% 51% 43% +[%/yr] 43.1% 56% 56% 54% 47% 42% 39% 51% 43% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]14.6% 14% 14% 28% 26% 28% 26% 29% 27% +[%/yr] 14.6% 14% 14% 28% 26% 28% 26% 29% 27% ``` generation—solar PV and wind power—under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios over - the entire modelling period. The main difference between the two scenarios is the - time horizon until variable renewable power generation is implemented, with more - rapid implementation in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Again, increased variable shares— - mainly in the USA, the Middle East region, and Australia—will produce synthetic - fuels for the export market, as fuel for both renewable power plants and the trans- - port sector. - -``` Table 8.9 provides an overview of the capacity factor developments by technol- -``` ogy group for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The operational hours shown are - the result of [R]E 24/7 modelling under the _‘Dispatch case’,_ which assumes that - the highest priority is given to the dispatch of power from variable sources, fol- - lowed by dispatchable renewables. Conventional power generation will only pro- - vide power for electricity demand that cannot be met by renewables and storage - technologies. Only imports via interconnections will be assigned a lower priority - than conventional power. The reason that interconnections are placed last in the - supply cascade is the high level of uncertainty about whether these interconnec- - tions can actually be implemented in time. Experience with power grid projects— - especially transmission lines—indicates that planning and construction can take - many years or fail entirely, leaving large-scale utility-based renewable power - projects unbuilt. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 199 ``` @@ -23962,7 +20013,7 @@ nologies is around 45%. For this analysis, we created five different power plant categories based on their current usual operation times and areas of use: -- **Limited dispatchable fossil and nuclear power plants** : coal, lignite, and +• Limited dispatchable fossil and nuclear power plants: coal, lignite, and ``` nuclear power plants with limited ability to respond to changes in demand. These @@ -23972,7 +20023,7 @@ able generation, and therefore quick reaction times (to ramp up and down) are required. Limited dispatchable power plants cannot deliver these services and are therefore being phased-out. ``` -- **Limited dispatchable renewable systems** are CSP plants with integrated stor- +• Limited dispatchable renewable systems are CSP plants with integrated stor- ``` age and co-generation systems with renewable fuels (including geothermal heat). @@ -23980,12 +20031,11 @@ They cannot respond quickly enough to adapt to minute-by-minute changes in demand, but can still be used as dispatch power plants for ‘day ahead’ planning. ``` -- **Dispatchable fossil fuel power plants** are gas power plants that have very quick +• Dispatchable fossil fuel power plants are gas power plants that have very quick -``` reaction times and therefore provide valid power system services. -``` -- **Dispatchable renewable power plants** are hydropower plants (although they + +• Dispatchable renewable power plants are hydropower plants (although they ``` are dependent on the climatic conditions in the region where the plant is used), @@ -23994,7 +20044,7 @@ synthetic fuel. This technology group is responsible for most of the required load-balancing services and is vital for the stability of the power system, as stor- age systems, interconnections, and, if possible, demand-side management. ``` -- **Variable renewables** are solar PV plants, onshore and offshore wind farms, and +• Variable renewables are solar PV plants, onshore and offshore wind farms, and ``` ocean energy generators. A sub-category of ocean energy plants—tidal energy @@ -24017,9 +20067,9 @@ share of dispatchable renewables will remain around 45%–50% throughout the entire modelling period. -**_8.4.3 Global: Development of Load, Generation,_** +**8.4.3 Global: Development of Load, Generation,** -**_and Residual Load_** +**and Residual Load** Table 8.10 shows the development of the maximum and average loads for the 10 @@ -24027,8 +20077,7 @@ world regions, the average and maximum power generation in each region in mega- watts, and the residual loads under both alternative scenarios. The residual load in -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 200 @@ -24340,6 +20389,8 @@ Middle East ``` ``` − +``` +``` 29 ``` ``` @@ -24371,6 +20422,8 @@ Middle East ``` ``` − +``` +``` 20 ``` ``` @@ -24402,6 +20455,8 @@ Middle East ``` ``` − +``` +``` 67 ``` ``` @@ -24593,7 +20648,6 @@ Eurasia ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 201 ``` @@ -24936,8 +20990,7 @@ OECD Pacific ``` 133% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 202 @@ -24974,101 +21027,60 @@ Load Development by Region ``` 2.0C Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%] 1.5C Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%] ``` -**Fig. 8.16** Development of maximum load in 10 world regions in 2020, 2030, and 2050  in the +## Fig. 8.16 Development of maximum load in 10 world regions in 2020, 2030, and 2050  in the + 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios this analysis is the load remaining after variable renewable power generation. - Negative values indicate that the power generation from solar and wind exceeds the - actual load and must be exported to other regions, stored, or curtailed. In each - region, the average generation should be on the same level as the average load. The - maximum loads and maximum generations shown do not usually occur at the same - time, so surplus production of electricity can appear and this should be exported or - stored as much as possible. In rare individual cases, solar or wind generation plants - can also temporarily reduce their output to a lower load, or some plants can be shut - down. Any reduced generation from solar and wind in response to low demand is - defined as _curtailment_. - -``` Figure 8.16 illustrates the development of the maximum loads across all 10 -``` world regions under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The most significant increase - appears in Africa, where the maximum load surges over the entire modelling period - by 534% in response to favourable economic development and increased access to ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 203 ``` energy services by households. In OECD Pacific, efficiency measures will lead to a - reduction in the maximum load to 87% of the base year value by 2030 and will - increase to 116% by 2050 with the expansion of electric mobility and the increased - electrification of the process heat supply in the industry sector. The 1.5 °C Scenario - has slightly higher loads in response to the accelerated electrification of the indus- - try, heating, and business sectors, except in three regions (the Middle East, India, - and Non OECD Asia), where early action on efficiency measures will lead to an - overall lower demand at the end of the modelling period, with the same GDP and - population growth rates. -**_8.4.4 Global System-Relevant Technologies—Storage_** - -**_and Dispatch_** +**8.4.4 Global System-Relevant Technologies—Storage** +**and Dispatch** The global results of introducing system-relevant technologies are shown in - Table 8.8. The first part of this section documents the required power plant markets, - the changes and configurations of power-generation systems, and the development - of loads in response to high electrification rates in the industry, heating, and trans- - port sectors. The next step in the analysis documents the storage and dispatch - demands and possible technology utilization. It is important to note that the results - presented here are not cost-optimized. The mixture of battery storage and pumped - hydropower plants with hydrogen- and synthetic-fuel-based dispatch power plants - presented here represents only one option of many. - -``` Significant simplification is required for the computer simulations of large -``` regions, to reduce the data volumes (and calculation times) or simply because there - is not yet any data, because several regions still have no electricity infrastructure in - place. Detailed modelling requires access to detailed data. Although the modelling - tools used for this analysis could be used to develop significantly more-detailed - regional analyses, this is beyond the scope of this research. - -``` The basic concept for the management of power system generation is based on -``` four principles: 1. Diversity; @@ -25085,43 +21097,30 @@ reduce storage and dispatch demands. _Flexibility_ involves a significant number of fast-reacting dispatch power plants operated with fuels produced from renewable electricity (hydrogen and synthetic - fuels). The existing gas infrastructure can be further utilized to avoid stranded -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 204 investments, and the actual fuel production can also be used—with some technical - limitations—for load management, which again will reduce the need for storage - technologies. _Inter-sectorial connectivity_ involves the connection of the heating (including pro- - cess heat) and transport sectors. Neither the transport sector nor the heating sector - will undergo complete electrification. To supply industrial process heat, the capacity - of co-generation plants—operated with bio-, geothermal, or hydrogen fuels—will - be increased by a factor of 2.5 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. Co-generation heating sys- - tems with heat storage capacities and heat pumps operated with renewable electric- - ity will lead to more flexibility in the management of both load and demand. - However, an analysis of the full potential for these heating systems was not within - the scope of this project, so they have not been included in the modelling. Further - research with localized data is required. _Resource efficiency_ In addition to energy and GHG modelling, a resource assess- -ment of selected metals has been undertaken (see Chap. 11). A variety of technolo- +ment of selected metals has been undertaken (see Chap. [^11]:). A variety of technolo- gies—especially storage technologies—can be used to reduce the pressure on @@ -25144,9 +21143,8 @@ hydrogen production and the amount of hydrogen-based dispatch power plants, is also shown. -``` Pumped hydropower will remain the backbone of the storage concept until 2030, -``` + when batteries start to overtake pumped hydropower by volume. The model does not distinguish between different battery or pumped hydro technologies. Hydrogen- @@ -25155,26 +21153,20 @@ based dispatch will remain the largest contributor to systems services after 203 until the end of the modelling period. -**_8.4.5 Global: Required Storage Capacities for the Stationary_** - -**_Power Sector_** +**8.4.5 Global: Required Storage Capacities for the Stationary** +**Power Sector** The world market for storage and dispatch technologies and services will increase - significantly in the 2.0 °C Scenario. The annual market for new hydro pump storage - plants will grow on average by 6 GW per year to a total capacity of 244 GW in 2030. During the same period, the total installed capacity for batteries will grow to - 12 GW, requiring an annual market of 1 GW. Between 2030 and 2050, the energy - service sector for storage and storage technologies must accelerate further. The ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 205 ``` @@ -25868,8 +21860,7 @@ Eurasia ``` 401,044(continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 206 @@ -26464,7 +22455,6 @@ Total global ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 207 ``` @@ -26488,9 +22478,8 @@ the average capacity factor for gas and hydrogen plants will decrease from 29% supply-driven to a service-driven industry. -``` At around 2030, the 1.5 °C Scenario requires more storage throughput than does -``` + the 2.0 °C Scenario, but storage demands for the two scenarios will be equal at the end of the modelling period. It is assumed that this higher throughput can be man- @@ -26512,7 +22501,7 @@ require research. **8.5 OECD North America** -**_8.5.1 OECD North America: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.5.1 OECD North America: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.5.1.1 OECD North America: Final Energy Demand by Sector** @@ -26544,13 +22533,11 @@ TWh/year (1.5  °C) by 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C case (6050 TWh/year in mum of 2710 TWh/year and 3100 TWh/year, respectively. -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. The 2.0 °C Scenario will require approximately 1400 TWh/year of electricity -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 208 @@ -26576,22 +22563,19 @@ Storage technology share Hydrogen-production + dispatch ``` ``` -[Through- -put] +[Through-put] ``` ``` Cumulative capacity ``` ``` -[Through- -put] +[Through-put] ``` ``` Cumulative capacity ``` ``` -[Through- -put] +[Through-put] ``` ``` Cumulative capacity @@ -26767,7 +22751,6 @@ No data ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 209 ``` @@ -26781,7 +22764,7 @@ Estimated average global investment costs for batty and hydro pump storage Estimated storage investment costs (In $ billion) ``` ``` -2015– 2020 +2015–2020 ``` ``` Average annual @@ -26909,8 +22892,7 @@ Total ``` 28.1 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 210 @@ -26930,9 +22912,8 @@ TWh/year in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario, 30% higher than in the 5.0 °C case TWh/year in 2050 for similar reasons. -``` The efficiency gains in the heating sector will be similar in magnitude to those in -``` + the electricity sector. Under the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios, a final energy con- sumption equivalent to about 7000 PJ/year and 9400 PJ/year, respectively, will be @@ -27040,46 +23021,30 @@ Industry fuels Industry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.17** OECD North America: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.17 OECD North America: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 211 ``` about 1880 GW by 2030 and 3810 GW by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the share - of renewable electricity generation in 2030 is assumed to be 84%. The 1.5  °C - Scenario projects a generation capacity from renewable energy of about 3920 GW - in 2050. - -``` Table 8.14 shows the development of the installed capacities of different renew- -``` able technologies in OECD North America over time. Figure 8.18 provides an over- - view of the overall power-generation structure in OECD North America. From 2020 - onwards, the continuing growth of wind and PV—to 1090 GW and 2130 GW, - respectively—is complemented by up to 210 GW of solar thermal generation, as - well as limited biomass, geothermal, and ocean energy, in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both - the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios will lead to a high proportion of variable power - generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 49% and 59%, respectively, by 2030, and 73% - and 74%, respectively, by 2050. **Table 8.14** OECD North America: development of renewable electricity generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 194 202 207 216 217 2.0 °C 194 199 202 206 206 @@ -27105,9 +23070,8 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 1 2 4 Total 5.0 °C 338 523 577 678 891 2.0 °C 338 1115 1878 2729 3810 1.5 °C 338 1298 2163 3288 3916 -``` -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 212 @@ -27167,50 +23131,30 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.18** OECD North America: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.18 OECD North America: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios **8.5.1.3 OECD North America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation** Figure 8.19 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs - -over time, including CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated electricity- - +over time, including CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated electricity- generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.9 ct/kWh. In the - 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 10.1 ct/ - kWh. The generation costs in the 2.0 °C Scenario will increase in a similar way until - 2030, when they reach 8.3 ct/kWh, and then drop to 6.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the - 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 8.8 ct/kWh and then drop to 7.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs in 2050 are 3.3 ct/kWh lower than - in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the generation costs in 2050 are 3.1 ct/ - kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these estimates of generation costs do - not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage, or - other load-balancing measures. - -``` Under the 5.0  °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices -``` will result in an increase in total electricity supply costs from today’s $270 billion/ - year to more than $760 billion/year in 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the total - supply costs in 2050 will be around $690 billion/year The long-term costs for elec- - tricity supply in 2050 will be 8%–9% lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result - of the estimated generation costs and the electrification of heating and mobility. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO2 emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 7.5 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, they will increase until 2030, when they reach 7.3 ct/kWh, and then drop @@ -27224,14 +23168,12 @@ costs will be, at maximum, 1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case, and this w ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 213 ``` occur in 2030. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the maxi- -mum difference in generation costs will be 2 ct/kWh in 2030. If the CO 2 costs are - +mum difference in generation costs will be 2 ct/kWh in 2030. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to $570 billion/year in 2050. @@ -27239,38 +23181,21 @@ $570 billion/year in 2050. **8.5.1.4 OECD North America: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of around $7600 billion will be required for power generation - between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace- - ment after the end of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approxi- - mately $211 billion per year on average, which is $4400 billion more than in the - 5.0 °C case ($3200 billion). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, an investment of around $8180 - billion for power generation will be required between 2015 and 2050. On average, - this is an investment of $227 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment - in conventional power plants will be around 48% of the total cumulative invest- - ments, whereas approximately 52% will be invested in renewable power generation - and co-generation (Fig. 8.20). However, under the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, OECD - North America will shift almost 93% (93%) of its entire investment to renewables - -and co- generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share of the power sector investment will - +and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share of the power sector investment will mainly focus on gas power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $3240 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $90 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ``` @@ -27358,11 +23283,11 @@ n ``` $ ``` -**Fig. 8.19** OECD North America: development of total electricity supply costs and specific -electricity- generation costs in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.19 OECD North America: development of total electricity supply costs and specific -8 Energy Scenario Results +electricity-generation costs in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 214 @@ -27462,12 +23387,11 @@ Renewable total 9,100 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.20** OECD North America: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.20 OECD North America: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 215 ``` @@ -27510,28 +23434,21 @@ Solar heating Biomass Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.21** OECD North America: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.21 OECD North America: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios 3000 PJ/year in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 2700 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The - direct use of electricity for heating will also increase by a factor of 4.6–4.9 between - 2015 and 2050 and will have a final energy share of 21% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario and 26% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. **8.5.1.6 OECD North America: Future Investments in the Heating Sector** The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 - will amount to around $2580 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments - for plant replacement after their economic lifetimes) or approximately $72 billion **Table 8.15** OECD North America: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 1868 2142 2334 2787 3279 2.0 °C 1868 2758 3019 3493 3686 @@ -27546,15 +23463,13 @@ Hydrogen 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 °C 0 144 276 1014 3045 1.5 °C 0 22 677 2100 2666 Total 5.0 °C 1991 2369 2629 3256 3994 -2.0 °C 1991 4664 6445 10,176 14,949 -1.5 °C 1991 5095 8180 11,592 12,324 -``` -8 Energy Scenario Results +2.0 °C [^1991]: [^4664]: [^6445]: 10,176 14,949 +1.5 °C [^1991]: [^5095]: [^8180]: 11,592 12,324 +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results **Table 8.16** OECD North America: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 292 315 330 366 411 2.0 °C 292 381 387 355 272 @@ -27571,7 +23486,8 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 3 3 3 3 3 Totala 5.0 °C 324 375 410 494 605 2.0 °C 324 752 1071 1489 1781 1.5 °C 324 868 1290 1622 1649 -a Excluding direct electric heating + +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` biomass @@ -27642,9 +23558,9 @@ heat pumps ``` total 2,800 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.22** OECD North America: development of investments in renewable heat generation tech- -nologies in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.22 OECD North America: development of investments in renewable heat generation tech- +nologies in the scenarios ``` 217 @@ -27675,9 +23591,8 @@ port demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario, of (or 21,100 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.17, Fig. 8.23). -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 11% (620 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` + total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and in 2050, the share will be 44% (930 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 2090 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the transport @@ -27688,9 +23603,8 @@ electricity demand will be 1030 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes hydrogen demand of 2020 PJ/year by 2050. -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 2540 PJ/year -``` + Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro- duced, with a maximum amount of 270 PJ/year in 2050. Because the reduction in @@ -27716,46 +23630,29 @@ Total 5.0 °C 30,241 29,779 29,214 28,704 27,664 2.0 °C 30,241 24,707 19,104 10,273 7354 1.5 °C 30,241 22,000 14,875 9036 7370 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 218 fossil fuel for transport will be faster, biofuel use will increase in the 1.5 °C Scenario - to a maximum of 5900 PJ/year. The demand for synthetic fuels will decrease to zero - by 2050  in the 1.5  °C Scenario because of the lower overall energy demand by - transport. -**8.5.1.8 OECD North America: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, OECD North America’s annual CO 2 emissions will decrease +**8.5.1.8 OECD North America: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, OECD North America’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 9% from 6170 Mt. in 2015 to 5612 Mt. in 2050. Stringent mitigation measures - in both the alternative scenarios will lead to reductions in annual emissions to 930 - Mt. in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 120 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with fur- - -ther reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emis- - +ther reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emis- sions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 216 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0  °C and - 1.5 °C Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will - be 99 Gt and 72 Gt, respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 54% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 54% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 67% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - decrease in the annual emissions will occur under both alternative scenarios. In the - 2.0 °C Scenario, the reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by - the ‘Transport’ and ‘Residential and other’ sectors (Fig. 8.24). ``` @@ -27783,7 +23680,7 @@ the ‘Transport’ and ‘Residential and other’ sectors (Fig. 8.24). 35,000 ``` ``` -5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C +5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 20152025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -27800,6 +23697,8 @@ Electricity ``` ``` Synfuels +``` +``` Biofuels ``` ``` @@ -27808,38 +23707,26 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.23** OECD North America: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.23 OECD North America: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 219 ``` **8.5.1.9 OECD North America: Primary Energy Consumption** Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the levels of primary energy - consumption under the three scenarios are shown in Fig. 8.25. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, - the primary energy demand will decrease by 46%, from around 111,600 PJ/year in - 2015 to 60,600 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C Scenario, the overall - primary energy demand will decrease by 50% by 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario - (5.0 °C: 121,000 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand - will be even lower (56,600 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conver- - sion losses will be lower. - -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. As a -``` result, renewable energy will have a primary energy share of 34% in 2030 and 91% - in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a pri- ``` @@ -27864,25 +23751,25 @@ in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will hav 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -7,00 0 +7,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -27936,8 +23823,7 @@ cumulated emissions [Gt] CO ``` ``` -2 -emissions [Mt/yr] +emissions [Mt/yr]2 ``` ``` 'Power generation' 'Other Conversion' @@ -27946,53 +23832,36 @@ emissions [Mt/yr] 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.24** OECD North America: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 +## Fig. 8.24 OECD North America: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 + emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 220 mary share of more than 91% in 2050 (including non-energy consumption, which - will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out by 2040 under both - the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cumulative primary energy consumption - of natural gas in the 5.0 °C case will add up to 1290 EJ, the cumulative coal con- - sumption to about 470 EJ, and the crude oil consumption to 1300 EJ. In contrast, in - the 2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to 730 EJ, the cumula- - tive coal demand to 120 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 640 EJ. Even lower - cumulative fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 480 EJ for natural - gas, 80 EJ for coal, and 440 EJ for oil. -**_8.5.2 Regional Results: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.5.2 Regional Results: Power Sector Analysis** The key results for all 10 world regions and their sub-regions are presented in this - section, with standardized tables to make them comparable for the reader. Regional - differences and particularities are summarized. It is important to note that the elec- - tricity loads for the sub-regions—which are in several cases also countries—are - -calculated (see Chap. 3) and are not real measured values. When information was - +calculated (see Chap. [^3]:) and are not real measured values. When information was available, the model results are compared with published peak loads and adapted as - far as possible. However, deviations of 10% or more for the base year are in the - range of the probability. The interconnection capacities between sub-regions are - simplified assumptions based on current practices in liberalized power markets, and - -include cross-border trade (e.g., between Canada and the USA) (C2ES 2017 ) or +include cross-border trade (e.g., between Canada and the USA) (C2ES [^2017]:) or ``` 0 @@ -28040,19 +23909,19 @@ Crude oil Coal Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.25** OECD North America: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy +## Fig. 8.25 OECD North America: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy + carrier in the scenarios (including electricity import balance) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 221 ``` within the European Union (EU). The EU set a target of 10% interconnection capac- -ity between their member states in 2002 (EU-EG 2017 ). The interconnection capac- +ity between their member states in 2002 (EU-EG [^2017]:). The interconnection capac- ities for sub-regions that are not geographically connected are set to zero for the @@ -28060,9 +23929,9 @@ entire modelling period, even when there is current discussion about the impleme tation of new interconnections, such as for the ASEAN Power Grid (ASEAN-CE -2018 ). +[^2018]:). -**_8.5.3 OECD North America: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.5.3 OECD North America: Power Sector Analysis** The OECD North America region includes Canada, the USA, and Mexico, and @@ -28110,9 +23979,8 @@ about 5–7 years faster than the 2.0 °C Scenario (Table 8.18). **8.5.3.2 OECD North America: Utilization of Power-Generation** -``` -Capacities -``` +**Capacities** + Table 8.19 shows the increasing shares of variable renewable power generation across all North American regions. Whereas Alaska and Canada are dominated by @@ -28121,8 +23989,7 @@ variable wind power generation, Mexico and the sunny mid-west of the USA have significant contributions from CSP. Solar PV is distributed evenly across the entire -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 222 @@ -28161,9 +24028,8 @@ them. **8.5.3.3 OECD North America: Development of Load, Generation,** -``` -and Residual Load -``` +**and Residual Load** + Table 8.21 shows the development of the maximum load, generation, and resulting residual load (the load remaining after variable renewable generation). With @@ -28179,14 +24045,14 @@ of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal − 7 − 16 − 6 − 8 − 4 0 -Lignite − 14 − 18 − 7 0 0 0 -Gas 6 9 12 1 − 55 − 4 +Hard coal −7 −16 −6 −8 −4 0 +Lignite −14 −18 −7 0 0 0 +Gas 6 9 12 1 −55 −4 Hydrogen-gas 1 10 4 24 55 39 -Oil/diesel − 5 − 7 − 3 − 4 − 1 0 -Nuclear − 4 − 9 − 10 − 10 0 − 1 +Oil/diesel −5 −7 −3 −4 −1 0 +Nuclear −4 −9 −10 −10 0 −1 Biomass 1 2 1 1 1 0 -Hydro − 5 − 3 0 0 0 2 +Hydro −5 −3 0 0 0 2 Wind (onshore) 24 48 36 36 24 19 Wind (offshore) 2 19 11 19 10 3 PV (roof top) 39 94 64 68 61 55 @@ -28199,7 +24065,6 @@ Renewable fuel based co-generation 1 2 2 2 2 0 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 223 ``` @@ -28231,8 +24096,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -28244,8 +24108,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` USA Alaska @@ -28754,8 +24617,7 @@ USA South East ``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 224 @@ -28781,8 +24643,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -28794,8 +24655,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Mexico @@ -28935,7 +24795,6 @@ Table 8.19 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 225 ``` @@ -28993,12 +24852,12 @@ dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 OECD North -America 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +America 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity Factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]53.1% 35% 33% 29% 28% 34% 28% 29% 29% +[%/yr] 53.1% 35% 33% 29% 28% 34% 28% 29% 29% ``` ``` Limited @@ -29007,7 +24866,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]68.6% 40% 10% 28% 2% 20% 6% 10% 10% +[%/yr] 68.6% 40% 10% 28% 2% 20% 6% 10% 10% ``` ``` Limited @@ -29015,31 +24874,30 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]45.9% 46% 57% 37% 39% 59% 36% 36% 35% +[%/yr] 45.9% 46% 57% 37% 39% 59% 36% 36% 35% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]39.7% 23% 21% 11% 5% 30% 8% 12% 11% +[%/yr] 39.7% 23% 21% 11% 5% 30% 8% 12% 11% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]44.0% 52% 68% 49% 52% 47% 44% 49% 45% +[%/yr] 44.0% 52% 68% 49% 52% 47% 44% 49% 45% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]18.9% 12% 12% 25% 26% 34% 27% 28% 28% +[%/yr] 18.9% 12% 12% 25% 26% 34% 27% 28% 28% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 226 @@ -29502,7 +25360,6 @@ NA – USA North West ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 227 ``` @@ -29731,8 +25588,7 @@ Mexico ``` 34 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 228 @@ -29767,8 +25623,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -29783,8 +25638,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total Storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch Hydrogen- -based +Dispatch Hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -30431,7 +26285,6 @@ USA South West ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 229 ``` @@ -30741,8 +26594,7 @@ OECD North America ``` 204,967 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 230 @@ -30760,9 +26612,8 @@ overcapacities to export electricity via transmission lines and/or to produce sy thetic and/or hydrogen fuels. -``` The southern part of the USA will achieve a significant solar PV share by 2050 -``` + and storage demand will be highest in this region. Storage and dispatch demand will increase in all sub-regions between 2025 and 2035. Before 2025, storage demand @@ -30771,7 +26622,7 @@ will be zero in all regions. **8.6 Latin America** -**_8.6.1 Latin America: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.6.1 Latin America: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.6.1.1 Latin America: Final Energy Demand by Sector** @@ -30801,9 +26652,8 @@ e-mobility) will increase from 740 TWh/year in 2015 to around 1560 TWh/year in Scenario (1860 TWh/year in 2050). -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be about 600 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector an @@ -30825,7 +26675,6 @@ increase to a maximum of 3800 TWh/year in 2050. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 231 ``` @@ -30836,25 +26685,25 @@ S. Teske et al. 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -3,50 0 +3,500 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` 0 @@ -30928,8 +26777,7 @@ C ``` TW h/ -yr -PJ +PJ yr ``` ``` /y @@ -30943,11 +26791,10 @@ Industry fuels Industry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.26** Latin America: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.26 Latin America: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios -``` Efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the electricity -``` + sector. Under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva- lent to about 4300 PJ/year will be avoided through efficiency gains in both scenarios @@ -30979,7 +26826,7 @@ tion capacity from renewable energy will be approximately 1210 GW in 2050. ``` Table 8.23 shows the development of different renewable technologies in Latin ``` -America over time. Figure 8.27 provides an overview of the overall power- +America over time. Figure  8.27 provides an overview of the overall power- generation structure in Latin America. From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth @@ -30987,15 +26834,12 @@ of wind and PV, up to 230 GW and 410 GW, respectively, will be complemented by up to 60 GW solar thermal generation, as well as limited biomass, geothermal, and -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 232 **Table 8.23** Latin America: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 161 200 222 269 302 2.0 °C 161 180 180 183 184 @@ -31021,7 +26865,7 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 4 Total 5.0 °C 193 270 306 382 456 2.0 °C 193 395 534 834 1034 1.5 °C 193 432 640 1167 1209 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -31053,7 +26897,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 193 270 306 382 456 4,500 ``` ``` -5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C +5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -31075,28 +26919,23 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.27** Latin America: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.27 Latin America: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 233 ``` ocean energy, in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will lead - to a high proportion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 31% and - 39%, respectively, by 2030, and 52% and 57%, respectively, by 2050. **8.6.1.3 Latin America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation** Figure 8.28 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs - -over time, including CO 2 emission costs, under all scenarios. The calculated - -electricity- generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.5 ct/kWh. +over time, including CO[^2]: emission costs, under all scenarios. The calculated +electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.5 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 8.3 @@ -31116,9 +26955,8 @@ into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage, or other l balancing measures. -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` + result in an increase in total electricity supply costs from today’s $70 billion/year to more than $240 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs @@ -31194,10 +27032,7 @@ ct Wh ``` ``` -b -``` -``` -illi +billi ``` ``` on @@ -31211,25 +27046,19 @@ $ Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.28** Latin America: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- +## Fig. 8.28 Latin America: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- + generation costs in the scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 234 the 2.0 °C Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated genera- - tion costs and the electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and - synthetic fuel generation in the 1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation - costs that are similar to the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 7.1 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, they will increase until 2030, when they will reach 6.6 ct/kWh, and then @@ -31244,60 +27073,36 @@ kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario). The generation costs in 2050 will again be lower alternative scenarios than in the 5.0 °C case: 1.2 ct/kWh in the 2.0 °C Scenario and -1.5 ct/kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario. If CO 2 costs are not considered, the total electric- - +1.5 ct/kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario. If CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electric- ity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to about $210 billion/year in 2050. **8.6.1.4 Latin America: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of about $1920 billion will be required for power generation between - 2015 and 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, including additional power plants for the - production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replacement - after the ends of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately $53 - billion per year, on average, which is $880 billion more than in the 5.0  °C case - ($1040 billion). An investment of around $2190 billion for power generation will be - required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this will be an - investment of $61 billion per year. Under the 5.0  °C Scenario, the investment in - conventional power plants will be around 25% of the total cumulative investments, - whereas approximately 75% will be invested in renewable power generation and - co-generation (Fig. 8.29). - -``` However, under the 2.0  °C (1.5  °C) Scenario, Latin America will shift almost -``` 94% (95%) of its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the - fossil fuel share of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas - power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $820 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $23 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be - equivalent to 90% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C - Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $900 billion, - or $25 billion per year. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 235 ``` @@ -31393,17 +27198,14 @@ Renewable total 1,920 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.29** Latin America: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.29 Latin America: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 236 **Table 8.24** Latin America: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 2684 2760 2888 3335 3622 2.0 °C 2684 3550 3895 4412 4654 @@ -31420,30 +27222,30 @@ Hydrogen 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Total 5.0 °C 2715 2824 2976 3480 3849 2.0 °C 2715 4077 4817 6255 7202 1.5 °C 2715 4159 5082 6213 5546 -``` + ``` 0 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -8,00 0 +8,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -12,00 0 +12,000 ``` ``` -14,00 0 +14,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -31503,51 +27305,37 @@ r Efficiency (compared to 5.0°C) Hydrogen -Electric heating +Electricheating Geothermal heat and heat pumps Solar heating Biomass Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.30** Latin America: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +### Fig. 8.30 Latin America: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 200 PJ/year in the - 2.0 °C Scenario and 400 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of electricity - for heating will also increase by a factor of 2–4 between 2015 and 2050 and will - attain a final energy share of 20% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 39% in the - 1.5 °C Scenario. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 237 ``` **8.6.1.6 Latin America: Future Investments in the Heating Sector** The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 - will amount to around $580 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments in - plant replacement after their economic lifetimes), or approximately $16 billion per - year. The largest share of investment in Latin America is assumed to be for solar - collectors (more than $200 billion), followed by biomass technologies and heat - pumps. The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable tech- - nologies, but due to the lower heat demand, the average annual investment will - again be around $16 billion per year (Fig. 8.31, Table 8.25). ``` @@ -31625,64 +27413,43 @@ heat pumps ``` total 573 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.31** Latin America: development of investments for renewable heat generation technologies +## Fig. 8.31 Latin America: development of investments for renewable heat generation technologies + in the scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 238 **8.6.1.7 Latin America: Transport** Energy demand in the transport sector in Latin America is expected to increase by - 63% under the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 7100 PJ/year in 2015 to 11,700 PJ/year - in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural - changes will save 69% (8090 PJ/year) by 2050 relative to the 5.0  °C Scenario. - Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in transport demand - will lead to even greater energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 77% (or 9040 PJ/ - year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.26, Fig. 8.32). - -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 6% (110 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` total energy demand under the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be - 47% (470 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 480 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the - transport sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the - annual electricity demand will be 390 TWh in 2050. The 1.5  °C Scenario also - assumes a hydrogen demand of 430 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 1340 PJ/year -``` Around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be introduced, with a - maximum of 190 PJ/year by 2050. Due to the lower overall energy demand in trans- - port, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maximum of 1030 PJ/ - year The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 350 PJ/year. -**8.6.1.8 Latin America: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Latin America’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by 48%, +**8.6.1.8 Latin America: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Latin America’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 48%, from 1220 Mt. in 2015 to 1806 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 240 Mt. in **Table 8.25** Latin America: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 549 531 536 552 542 2.0 °C 549 730 742 657 603 @@ -31699,44 +27466,31 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Totala 5.0 °C 556 546 556 585 594 2.0 °C 556 835 929 986 1034 1.5 °C 556 876 955 853 619 -a Excluding direct electric heating +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 239 ``` 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 50 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further reduc- - -tions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions from - +tions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 56 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, - the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 21 Gt and 17 - Gt, respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 63% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 63% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 70% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, the reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the - ‘Residential and other’ and ‘Industry’ sectors (Fig. 8.33). **Table 8.26** Latin America: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Rail 5.0 °C 90 110 122 145 163 2.0 °C 90 113 133 157 192 1.5 °C 90 130 145 163 224 -Road 5.0 °C 6662 7486 8102 9754 10,610 +Road 5.0 °C [^6662]: [^7486]: [^8102]: [^9754]: 10,610 2.0 °C 6662 6424 5799 4107 3112 1.5 °C 6662 5196 3971 2744 2161 Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 211 348 453 593 638 @@ -31745,10 +27499,10 @@ Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 211 348 453 593 638 Domestic navigation 5.0 °C 101 104 107 113 117 2.0 °C 101 104 107 113 117 1.5 °C 101 104 107 113 117 -Total 5.0 °C 7064 8047 8783 10,605 11,529 +Total 5.0 °C [^7064]: [^8047]: [^8783]: 10,605 11,529 2.0 °C 7064 6868 6251 4551 3559 1.5 °C 7064 5648 4419 3157 2605 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -31774,7 +27528,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 7064 8047 8783 10,605 11,529 14,000 ``` ``` -5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C +5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -31796,50 +27550,31 @@ Biofuels Natural Gas Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.32** Latin America: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.32 Latin America: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 240 **8.6.1.9 Latin America: Primary Energy Consumption** The levels of primary energy consumption under the three scenarios when the - assumptions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. 8.34. In the - 2.0  °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 2%, from around - 28,400 PJ/year in 2015 to 27,900 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C - Scenario, the overall primary energy demand will decrease by 38% in 2050 in the - 2.0  °C Scenario (5.0  °C: 45000 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the primary - energy demand will be even lower (25,700 PJ in 2050) because the final energy - demand and conversion losses will be lower. - -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 55% in 2030 and - 94% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will also - have a primary energy share of more than 94% in 2050 (including non-energy con- - sumption, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out - by 2035 under both the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cumulative primary - energy consumption of natural gas in the 5.0  °C case will add up to 290 EJ, the - cumulative coal consumption to about 60 EJ, and the crude oil consumption to 460 - EJ. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to - 130 EJ, the cumulative coal demand to 20 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 200 ``` @@ -31912,11 +27647,12 @@ on s [G t] +``` +``` CO ``` ``` -2 -emi +emi2 ``` ``` ssi @@ -31932,6 +27668,8 @@ s ``` ``` t/ +``` +``` yr ``` ``` @@ -31944,13 +27682,13 @@ yr 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.33** Latin America: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions +## Fig. 8.33 Latin America: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions + (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 2 41 ``` @@ -32009,14 +27747,15 @@ Crude oil Coal Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.34** Latin America: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in +## Fig. 8.34 Latin America: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in + the scenarios (including electricity import balance) EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 110 EJ for natural gas, 10 EJ for coal, and 150 EJ for oil. -**_8.6.2 Latin America: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.6.2 Latin America: Power Sector Analysis** The Latin American region is extremely diverse. It borders Mexico in the north and @@ -32034,7 +27773,7 @@ power exchange grid between the islands seems impractical. To calculate the detailed storage demand, island-specific analyses would be required, as has recently -been done for Barbados (Hohmeyer 2015 ). The mainland of South America has +been done for Barbados (Hohmeyer [^2015]:). The mainland of South America has been subdivided into the large economic centres of Chile, Argentina, and Brazil, and @@ -32042,8 +27781,7 @@ Central America and the northern part of South America have been clustered into two parts. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 242 @@ -32063,7 +27801,7 @@ to around 23 GW under the 1.5 °C Scenario. The onshore wind market in the 1.5 Scenario must increase to 15 GW by 2025, compared with the average annual -onshore wind market of around 3 GW between 2014 and 2017 (GWEC 2018 ). By +onshore wind market of around 3 GW between 2014 and 2017 (GWEC [^2018]:). By 2050, offshore wind will have increased to a moderate annual new installation @@ -32095,12 +27833,12 @@ of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal 0 − 1 0 − 1 − 1 0 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal 0 −1 0 −1 −1 0 Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Gas 4 2 1 6 − 9 5 +Gas 4 2 1 6 −9 5 Hydrogen-gas 0 1 1 4 11 14 -Oil/diesel − 1 − 4 − 4 − 3 0 0 +Oil/diesel −1 −4 −4 −3 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass 3 5 3 4 4 3 Hydro 2 0 0 0 0 0 @@ -32116,7 +27854,6 @@ Renewable fuel based co-generation 1 2 2 2 2 1 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 243 ``` @@ -32148,8 +27885,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -32161,8 +27897,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Caribbean @@ -32671,8 +28406,7 @@ Argentina ``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 244 @@ -32698,8 +28432,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -32711,8 +28444,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Chile @@ -32852,7 +28584,6 @@ Table 8.28 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 245 ``` @@ -32868,9 +28599,8 @@ est share of dispatchable renewables, mainly attributable to existing hydropower plants. -``` Compared with other regions of the world, Latin America currently has a small -``` + fleet of coal and nuclear power plants, but they are operated with a high capacity factor (Table 8.29). The dispatch order for all world regions in all cases is assumed @@ -32887,9 +28617,8 @@ rather than of an increase in variable power generation. **8.6.2.3 Latin America: Development of Load, Generation** -``` -and Residual Load -``` +**and Residual Load** + The sub-regions of Latin America are highly diverse in their geographic features and population densities, so the maximum loads in the different sub-regions vary @@ -32906,12 +28635,12 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -Latin America 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +Latin America 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]48.9% 31% 25% 36% 21% 41% 18% 34% 24% +[%/yr] 48.9% 31% 25% 36% 21% 41% 18% 34% 24% ``` ``` Limited @@ -32920,7 +28649,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]73.4% 14% 3% 17% 0% 45% 0% 13% 4% +[%/yr] 73.4% 14% 3% 17% 0% 45% 0% 13% 4% ``` ``` Limited @@ -32928,31 +28657,30 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]26.0% 53% 48% 46% 19% 56% 23% 47% 33% +[%/yr] 26.0% 53% 48% 46% 19% 56% 23% 47% 33% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]53.2% 24% 11% 31% 2% 37% 6% 31% 11% +[%/yr] 53.2% 24% 11% 31% 2% 37% 6% 31% 11% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]45.6% 37% 28% 46% 26% 43% 25% 46% 35% +[%/yr] 45.6% 37% 28% 46% 26% 43% 25% 46% 35% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]12.2% 12% 12% 21% 14% 31% 15% 22% 15% +[%/yr] 12.2% 12% 12% 21% 14% 31% 15% 22% 15% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 246 @@ -33415,7 +29143,6 @@ Brazil ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 247 ``` @@ -33644,12 +29371,11 @@ Chile ``` 1 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 248 -load was 1.7 GW in 2012 according to IDB ( 2013 ). Brazil, Uruguay’s direct neigh- +load was 1.7 GW in 2012 according to IDB ([^2013]:). Brazil, Uruguay’s direct neigh- bour, has the largest load of close to 100 GW, which will increase by a factor of 2.5 @@ -33692,7 +29418,7 @@ gen dispatch. **8.7 OECD Europe** -**_8.7.1 OECD Europe: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.7.1 OECD Europe: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.7.1.1 OECD Europe: Final Energy Demand by Sector** @@ -33727,7 +29453,6 @@ TWh/year in 2050. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 249 ``` @@ -33762,8 +29487,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -33778,8 +29502,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -34423,8 +30146,7 @@ Uruguay ``` 65 (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 250 @@ -34459,8 +30181,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -34475,8 +30196,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -34817,7 +30537,6 @@ Latin America ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 251 ``` @@ -34849,22 +30568,22 @@ S. Teske et al. 0 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -30,00 0 +30,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` -60,00 0 +60,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -34914,8 +30633,7 @@ C ``` TW h/ -yr -PJ +PJ yr ``` ``` /y @@ -34931,9 +30649,8 @@ total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` **Fig. 8.35** OECD Europe: development in three scenarios -``` Electrification will cause a significant increase in the electricity demand by 2050. -``` + In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will increase to approxi- mately 1300 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport @@ -34952,9 +30669,8 @@ the 2.0 °C Scenario, 28% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Sce gross electricity demand will increase to a maximum of 6400 TWh/year by 2050. -``` Efficiency gains could be even larger in the heating sector than in the electricity -``` + sector. Under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva- lent to about 6200 PJ/year and 8200 PJ/year, respectively, are avoided by efficiency @@ -34971,13 +30687,10 @@ able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in OECD Europe will come from renewable energy sources in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—mainly -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results - -``` 252 -``` -``` + wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 75% of the total electricity generation. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be 68% by 2030 and 89% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 1200 @@ -34992,7 +30705,7 @@ from biomass (ca. 110 GW) CSP and ocean energy (more than 50 GW each), in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will lead to high proportions of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 38% and 45%, respectively, by 2030 and 67% and 68%, respectively, by 2050. -``` + **Table 8.32** OECD Europe: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios @@ -35026,7 +30739,6 @@ Total 5.0 °C 484 635 706 780 873 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 253 ``` @@ -35083,16 +30795,13 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.36** OECD Europe: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.36 OECD Europe: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios **8.7.1.3 OECD Europe: Future Costs of Electricity Generation** Figure 8.37 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs - -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- - +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- tricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 7 ct/kWh. In the - 5.0 °C case, generation costs will increase until 2050, when they will reach 10.4 ct/ ``` @@ -35152,46 +30861,29 @@ billion $ ct/kWh Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.37** OECD Europe: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- +## Fig. 8.37 OECD Europe: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- + generation costs in the scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 254 kWh. The generation costs in both alternative scenarios will increase until 2030, - when they will reach 10.3 ct/kWh, and they will drop by 2050 to 8.9 ct/kWh and 8.8 - ct/kWh, respectively, 1.5–1.6 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these - estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as - power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` result in an increase in total electricity supply costs from today’s $270 billion/year - to more than $550 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs - will be $560 billion/year and in the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will be $590 billion/year - The long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 2% higher in the 2.0 °C - Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and - the electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and synthetic fuel - generation in the 1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation costs that are - 8% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, they will increase until 2030 when they reach 9.5 ct/kWh, and then @@ -35204,8 +30896,7 @@ will reach a maximum of 1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case in 2030. In th 1.5  °C Scenario, the maximum difference in generation costs compared with the -5.0 °C Scenario will be 1.2 ct/kWh, which will occur in 2040. If the CO 2 costs are - +5.0 °C Scenario will be 1.2 ct/kWh, which will occur in 2040. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $470 billion/year in 2050. @@ -35213,74 +30904,44 @@ $470 billion/year in 2050. **8.7.1.4 OECD Europe: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of around $4900 billion will be required for power generation - between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments to replace plants - at the ends of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately $136 - billion per year on average, which is $2150 billion more than in the 5.0  °C case - ($2750 billion). An investment of around $5340 billion for power generation will be - required between 2015 and 2050 under the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this will be - an investment of $148 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, investment in conven- - tional power plants will be around 26% of the total cumulative investments, whereas - approximately 74% will be invested in renewable power generation and co- - generation (Fig. 8.38). - -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, OECD Europe will shift almost 96% -``` (97%) of its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil - fuel share of the power sector investments will predominantly focus on gas power - plants that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $2340 billion in 2050, ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 255 ``` equivalent to $65 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be - equivalent to 110% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C - Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $2600 billion, - or $72 billion per year. **8.7.1.5 OECD Europe: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 16%, - from 20,600 PJ/year in 2015 to 24,000 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 26% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario relative to that in the 5.0  °C case, and by 34% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. - Today, renewables supply around 19% of OECD Europe’s final energy demand for - heating, with the main contribution from biomass. Renewable energy will provide - 44% of OECD Europe’s total heat demand in 2030 under the 2.0 °C Scenario and - 53% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. In both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of - the total heat demand in 2050. ``` @@ -35341,10 +31002,9 @@ Renewable total 4,900 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.38** OECD Europe: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.38 OECD Europe: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 256 @@ -35359,9 +31019,8 @@ growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead in the long t to a biomass share of 27% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 28% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` + in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 1900 PJ/year in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 2200 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of elec- @@ -35397,7 +31056,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 3003 3623 3931 4537 5325 0 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` 10,000 @@ -35482,12 +31141,11 @@ Biomass ``` Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.39** OECD Europe: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.39 OECD Europe: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 257 ``` @@ -35524,7 +31182,7 @@ heat use ``` solar collectors -22 % +22% ``` ``` heat pumps @@ -35547,14 +31205,14 @@ heat use ``` solar collectors -45 % +45% ``` ``` heat pumps -50 % +50% ``` ``` -2.0°C: 2015-205 0 +2.0°C: 2015-2050 ``` ``` total 2,400 billion $ @@ -35562,15 +31220,14 @@ total 2,400 billion $ ``` biomass technologies -2% -geothermal +2% geothermal heat use 1% ``` ``` solar collectors -46 % +46% ``` ``` heat @@ -35583,64 +31240,44 @@ pumps ``` total 1,830 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.40** OECD Europe: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies +## Fig. 8.40 OECD Europe: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies + in the scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 258 **8.7.1.7 OECD Europe: Transport** Energy demand in the transport sector in OECD Europe is expected to decrease by - 3% in the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 14,000 PJ/year in 2015 to 13,600 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes - will save 69% (9460 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. Additional - modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport demand will lead - to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 76% (or 10,300 PJ/year) in - 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.35, Fig. 8.41). - -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 18% (430 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 64% - (740 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 840 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans- - port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual - electricity demand will be 580 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a - hydrogen demand of 730 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 600  PJ/year -``` Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro- - duced, with a maximum amount of 130 PJ/year in 2050. Biofuel use will be reduced - in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maximum of 590 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel - demand will reach 170 PJ/year. -**8.7.1.8 OECD Europe: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, OECD Europe’s annual CO 2 emissions will decrease by 15% +**8.7.1.8 OECD Europe: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, OECD Europe’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 15% from 3400 Mt. in 2015 to 2876 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 570 Mt. in **Table 8.34** OECD Europe: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 434 467 486 507 519 2.0 °C 434 407 339 293 289 @@ -35657,18 +31294,15 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 29 40 46 62 84 Totala 5.0 °C 504 579 615 681 744 2.0 °C 504 855 1101 1548 1789 1.5 °C 504 807 897 1237 1383 -a Excluding direct electric heating +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 259 ``` **Table 8.35** OECD Europe: projection of the transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Rail 5.0 °C 323 334 335 337 344 2.0 °C 323 362 409 509 643 @@ -35685,26 +31319,16 @@ Domestic navigation 5.0 °C 227 236 240 248 259 Total 5.0 °C 13,938 13,665 13,656 13,598 13,541 2.0 °C 13,938 11,055 8443 5134 4140 1.5 °C 13,938 9090 5300 4020 3296 -``` + 2040  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 270 Mt. in the 1.5  °C Scenario, with further - -reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions - +reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 116 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C - Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 55 - Gt and 44 Gt, respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 53% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 53% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 62% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in the annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the - 2.0 °C Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by - the ‘Transport’ and the ‘Residential and other’ sectors (Fig. 8.42). ``` @@ -35723,16 +31347,16 @@ the ‘Transport’ and the ‘Residential and other’ sectors (Fig. 8.42). 8,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -12,00 0 +12,000 ``` ``` -14,00 0 +14,000 ``` ``` -16,00 0 +16,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -35805,18 +31429,14 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.41** OECD Europe: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.41 OECD Europe: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results - -``` 260 -``` -``` -8.7.1.9 OECD Europe: Primary Energy Consumption -``` -``` + +**8.7.1.9 OECD Europe: Primary Energy Consumption** + The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump- tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. 8.43. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 44%, from around 71,200 @@ -35837,7 +31457,7 @@ contrast, in the 2.0 °C case, the cumulative gas demand will amount to 420 EJ, cumulative coal demand to 100 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 320 EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 340 EJ for natural gas, 70 EJ for coal, and 240 EJ for oil. -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -35869,25 +31489,25 @@ lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 340 EJ for natu 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -3,50 0 +3,500 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -35945,8 +31565,7 @@ emissions CO ``` ``` -2 -emissions +emissions 2 ``` ``` [Mt/yr] @@ -35958,13 +31577,13 @@ emissions 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.42** OECD Europe: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions +## Fig. 8.42 OECD Europe: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions + (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 261 ``` @@ -35972,28 +31591,28 @@ S. Teske et al. 0 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` 20,000 ``` ``` -30,00 0 +30,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` -60,00 0 +60,000 ``` ``` -70,00 0 +70,000 ``` ``` -80,00 0 +80,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -36072,10 +31691,11 @@ Nuclear ``` PJ/yr ``` -**Fig. 8.43** OECD Europe: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in +## Fig. 8.43 OECD Europe: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in + the scenarios (including electricity import balance) -**_8.7.2 OECD Europe: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.7.2 OECD Europe: Power Sector Analysis** The European power sector is liberalized across the EU and cross-border trade in @@ -36083,11 +31703,11 @@ electricity has a long tradition and is very well documented. The European Netwo of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) publishes detailed -data about the annual cross-border trade (ENTSO-E 2018 ) and produces the _Ten-_ +data about the annual cross-border trade (ENTSO-E [^2018]:) and produces the _Ten-_ -_Year- Network Development Plan (TYNDP)_ , which aims to integrate 60% renewable +_Year-Network Development Plan (TYNDP)_, which aims to integrate 60% renewable -electricity by 2040 (TYNDP 2016 ). While the extent to which the power sector is +electricity by 2040 (TYNDP [^2016]:). While the extent to which the power sector is liberalised and open for competition for generation and supply varies significantly @@ -36117,8 +31737,7 @@ connections with its neighbours, Israel has been taken out of the energy balance OECD Europe and integrated into the Middle East region. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 262 @@ -36136,7 +31755,7 @@ However, the 1.5  °C Scenario requires that the size of the onshore wind marke double between 2020 and 2025. The offshore wind market for both scenarios is -similar and must increase from 3 GW (GWEC 2018 ) in 2017 to around 10 GW per +similar and must increase from 3 GW (GWEC [^2018]:) in 2017 to around 10 GW per year throughout the entire modelling period until 2050. All European lignite power @@ -36171,13 +31790,13 @@ annual change of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal − 5 − 9 − 8 − 4 0 0 -Lignite − 5 − 6 − 3 − 2 0 0 -Gas 2 1 0 − 5 − 22 − 19 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal −5 −9 −8 −4 0 0 +Lignite −5 −6 −3 −2 0 0 +Gas 2 1 0 −5 −22 −19 Hydrogen-gas 0 1 2 6 14 14 -Oil/diesel − 7 − 5 − 1 − 2 0 0 -Nuclear − 6 − 9 − 6 − 6 − 2 − 2 +Oil/diesel −7 −5 −1 −2 0 0 +Nuclear −6 −9 −6 −6 −2 −2 Biomass 5 7 4 3 1 1 Hydro 1 0 0 0 0 0 Wind (onshore) 13 28 22 32 13 10 @@ -36192,7 +31811,6 @@ Renewable fuel based co-generation 3 6 4 4 1 1 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 263 ``` @@ -36224,8 +31842,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -36237,8 +31854,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Central @@ -36675,8 +32291,7 @@ Nordic ``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 264 @@ -36702,8 +32317,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -36715,8 +32329,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Turkey @@ -36856,7 +32469,6 @@ Table 8.37 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 265 ``` @@ -36864,9 +32476,8 @@ Across the EU, it is assumed that the average interconnection capacities will in to 20% of the regional peak load. -``` Both alternative scenarios assume that limited dispatchable power generation— -``` + namely coal, lignite, and nuclear—will not have priority dispatch and will be last in the dispatch queue. Therefore, the average calculated capacity factor will decrease @@ -36882,9 +32493,8 @@ plants will fill the gap and their capacity factors will increase. **8.7.2.3 OECD Europe: Development of Load, Generation,** -``` -and Residual Load -``` +**and Residual Load** + The loads of the European sub-regions will not increase until 2030 in the two alter- native scenarios, as shown in Table 8.39. The only exception is Turkey, which will @@ -36893,7 +32503,7 @@ have a constantly increasing load. This is attributed to Turkey’s assumed econ development and increasing per capita electricity demand, which is currently lower -than in most EU countries (WB-DB 2018 ). The calculated load will increase in all +than in most EU countries (WB-DB [^2018]:). The calculated load will increase in all sub-regions between 2030 and 2050 due to the increased deployment of electric @@ -36911,12 +32521,12 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -World 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +World 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]45.2% 37% 37% 48% 44% 35% 36% 39% 38% +[%/yr] 45.2% 37% 37% 48% 44% 35% 36% 39% 38% ``` ``` Limited @@ -36925,7 +32535,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]57.5% 14% 14% 3% 2% 19% 1% 20% 9% +[%/yr] 57.5% 14% 14% 3% 2% 19% 1% 20% 9% ``` ``` Limited @@ -36933,31 +32543,30 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]54.0% 60% 60% 52% 48% 60% 39% 41% 40% +[%/yr] 54.0% 60% 60% 52% 48% 60% 39% 41% 40% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]32.0% 20% 20% 7% 7% 30% 10% 15% 16% +[%/yr] 32.0% 20% 20% 7% 7% 30% 10% 15% 16% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]43.7% 67% 67% 67% 61% 39% 49% 52% 50% +[%/yr] 43.7% 67% 67% 67% 61% 39% 49% 52% 50% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]22.5% 22% 22% 40% 38% 29% 35% 36% 35% +[%/yr] 22.5% 22% 22% 40% 38% 29% 35% 36% 35% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 266 @@ -37576,7 +33185,6 @@ Turkey ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 267 ``` @@ -37611,8 +33219,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -37627,8 +33234,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -38271,10 +33877,11 @@ Nordic ``` ``` 78,294 +``` +``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 268 @@ -38303,8 +33910,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -38319,8 +33925,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -38565,65 +34170,53 @@ Table 8.40 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 269 ``` the Iberian Peninsula, and the UK have the highest storage demands, as shown in - Table 8.40. This corresponds to the calculated results for increased interconnec- - tions. To avoid curtailment, renewably produced hydrogen will be used to store - surplus generation for dispatch when required. Finding the optimal mix of battery - capacity, pumped hydro capacity, hydrogen production, and expansion of transmis- - sion capacity was beyond the scope of this analysis, and further research is required - on this issue. **8.8 Africa** -**_8.8.1 Africa: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.8.1 Africa: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.8.1.1 Africa: Final Energy Demand by Sector** The development pathways for Africa’s final energy demand when the assumptions - on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are combined are shown in - Fig. 8.44 for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the total - final energy demand will increase by 103% from the current 23,200 PJ/year to 47,100 - PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final energy demand will increase at a - much slower rate, by 39% compared with current consumption, and will reach ``` 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -7,00 0 +7,000 ``` ``` 0 @@ -38632,31 +34225,31 @@ much slower rate, by 39% compared with current consumption, and will reach 5,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -15,00 0 +15,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -25,00 0 +25,000 ``` ``` -30,00 0 +30,000 ``` ``` -35,00 0 +35,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -45,00 0 +45,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -38715,10 +34308,9 @@ Industry fuels Industry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.44** Africa: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.44 Africa: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 270 @@ -38738,9 +34330,8 @@ efficiency measures will reduce the specific energy consumption by appliances, t scenarios consider higher consumption to achieve higher living standards. -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will increase to approximately 1200 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the @@ -38812,13 +34403,10 @@ by 2030, and 71% by 2050. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 271 ``` **Table 8.41** Africa: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 28 47 58 84 117 2.0 °C 28 46 49 51 54 @@ -38844,30 +34432,30 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Total 5.0 °C 35 81 110 180 279 2.0 °C 35 144 359 1243 2036 1.5 °C 35 223 481 1464 2284 -``` + ``` 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -7,00 0 +7,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -38933,52 +34521,32 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.45** Africa: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.45 Africa: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 272 **8.8.1.3 Africa: Future Costs of Electricity Generation** Figure 8.46 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs - -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated - -electricity- generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 5.4 ct/kWh. - +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated +electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 5.4 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach 11 ct/ - kWh, and will then stabilize at 10.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C - Scenarios, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach 8.4 ct/kWh - and 8.2 ct/kWh, respectively. They will then drop to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050  in both - scenarios, 5.2 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. Note that these estimates of - generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expan- - sion, storage, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause the total electricity supply costs to increase from today’s $40 billion/year to - more than $290 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs - will be $350 billion/year, and in the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will be $380 billion/year - The long-term costs of electricity supply will be more than 23% higher under the - 2.0 °C Scenario than under the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated genera- - tion costs and the electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and - synthetic fuel generation in the 1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation - costs that are 34% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. ``` @@ -39038,28 +34606,25 @@ costs that are 34% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. ``` billion ct/kWh ``` -``` $ -``` + ``` 2.0°C efficiency measures 2.0°C 1.5°C efficiency measures 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.46** Africa: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-generation +## Fig. 8.46 Africa: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-generation + costs in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 273 ``` -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 8.1 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, they will increase until 2030, when they reach 6.8 ct/kWh, and then drop @@ -39068,8 +34633,7 @@ to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 7.2 ct/kW then drop to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050. Therefore, the generation costs in both alternative -scenarios are, at maximum, 2.5 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. If the CO 2 - +scenarios are, at maximum, 2.5 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. If the CO2 costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0  °C case will increase to about $220 billion/year in 2050. @@ -39077,69 +34641,39 @@ increase to about $220 billion/year in 2050. **8.8.1.4 Africa: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of around $3500 billion will be required for power generation - between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace- - ment at the ends of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately - $97 billion per year, on average, and is $2590 billion more than in the 5.0 ° C case - ($910 billion). An investment of around $3910 billion for power generation will be - required between 2015 and 2050  in the 1.5  °C Scenario. On average, this is an - investment of $109 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in con- - ventional power plants will be around 45% of the total cumulative investments, and - approximately 55% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-genera- - tion (Fig. 8.47). - -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, Africa will shift almost 93% (94%) of -``` its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel - share of power sector investments will focus predominantly on gas power plants - that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $1510 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $42 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be - equivalent to 60% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C - Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $1610 billion, - or $45 billion per year. **8.8.1.5 Africa: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 166%, - from 7600 PJ/year in 2015 to 20,200 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 18% in 2050 in both alterna- - tive scenarios, relative to the 5.0 °C case. Today, renewables supply around 61% of - Africa’s final energy demand for heating, with the main contribution from biomass. - Renewable energy will provide 71% of Africa’s total heat demand in 2030 under the - 2.0 °C Scenario and 79% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. In both scenarios, renewables - will provide 100% of the total heat demand from renewable energy in 2050. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 274 @@ -39161,16 +34695,16 @@ share of 51% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 40% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. 5,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -15,00 0 +15,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -25,00 0 +25,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -39231,7 +34765,7 @@ and heat pumps Solar heating Biomass ``` -**Fig. 8.48** Africa: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.48 Africa: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` Fossil @@ -39284,19 +34818,16 @@ Renewable total 3,900 billion $ ``` -``` -Fig. 8.47 Africa: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios -``` +## Fig. 8.47 Africa: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios + ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 275 ``` -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` + in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 720 PJ/year in both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of electricity for heat- @@ -39348,8 +34879,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 4593 5797 6404 7440 8684 2.0 °C 4593 5598 7047 10,061 12,793 1.5 °C 4593 6037 7444 10,067 10,464 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 276 @@ -39399,7 +34929,7 @@ heat pumps 47% ``` -2.0°C: 2015-205 0 +2.0°C: 2015-2050 ``` total 790 billion $ @@ -39417,7 +34947,7 @@ heat use ``` solar collectors -29 % +29% ``` ``` heat @@ -39430,11 +34960,11 @@ pumps ``` total 760 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.49** Africa: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the +## Fig. 8.49 Africa: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the + scenarios **Table 8.43** Africa: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5 0 °C 3655 4036 4100 3973 3870 2 0 °C 3655 3276 3063 2792 2251 @@ -39451,68 +34981,45 @@ Heat pumps 5 0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Totala 5 0 °C 3656 4043 4116 4017 3962 2 0 °C 3656 3324 3239 3253 3169 1 5 °C 3656 3610 3244 2912 2225 -a Excluding direct electric heating + +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 277 ``` **8.8.1.7 Africa: Transport** The energy demand in the transport sector in Africa is expected to increase by 131% - in the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 4400 PJ/year in 2015 to 10,100 PJ/year in 2050. - In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes will - save 53% (5410 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. Additional - modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport demand will lead - to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 63% (or 6360 PJ/year) in - 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.44, Fig. 8.50). - -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 4% (50 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s total -``` energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas by 2050, the share will be 28% (370 - TWh/year). In 2050, up to 410 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the transport - sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the annual - electricity demand will be 360 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a - hydrogen demand of 340 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 2300 PJ/year. -``` Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be introduced, - with a maximum amount of 700 PJ/year in 2050. With the lower overall energy - demand by transport, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maxi- - mum of 1700 PJ/year The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 470 PJ/ - year. -**8.8.1.8 Africa: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Africa’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by 126%, from +**8.8.1.8 Africa: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Africa’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 126%, from 1140 Mt. in 2015 to 2585 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall to 400 Mt. in 2040 in the **Table 8.44** Africa: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Rail 5.0 °C 46 52 58 67 74 2.0 °C 46 58 71 96 110 @@ -39526,85 +35033,63 @@ Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 105 159 198 256 272 Domestic navigation 5.0 °C 32 35 37 40 44 2.0 °C 32 35 37 40 44 1.5 °C 32 35 37 40 44 -Total 5.0 °C 4366 5246 6105 7885 10,027 +Total 5.0 °C [^4366]: [^5246]: [^6105]: [^7885]: 10,027 2.0 °C 4366 4895 5045 4877 4714 1.5 °C 4366 4707 4648 4164 3765 -``` -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 278 2.0 °C Scenario and to 200 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further reductions to -almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 - +almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 66 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 27 Gt and 22 Gt, - respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 59% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 59% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 67% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the - ‘Industry’ and ‘Residential and other’ sectors (Fig. 8.51). **8.8.1.9 Africa: Primary Energy Consumption** The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump- - tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. 8.52. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, the primary energy demand will increase by 50% from around 33,200 PJ/ - year in 2015 to around 50,000 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, - the overall primary energy demand will decrease by 26% by 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario (5.0  °C: 67700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the primary energy - demand will be even lower (48,000 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand - and conversion losses will be lower. - -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 56% in 2030 and - 98% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a - primary energy share of more than 98% in 2050 (including non-energy consump- - tion, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out by ``` 0 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -8,00 0 +8,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -12,00 0 +12,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -39675,12 +35160,11 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.50** Africa: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +### Fig. 8.50 Africa: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 279 ``` @@ -39799,7 +35283,8 @@ emissions 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.51** Africa: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after +## Fig. 8.51 Africa: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions (after + 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` @@ -39827,7 +35312,7 @@ emissions 70,000 ``` ``` -80,00 0 +80,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -39908,13 +35393,15 @@ Crude oil ``` ``` Coal +``` +``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.52** Africa: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the sce- +## Fig. 8.52 Africa: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the sce- + narios (including electricity import balance) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 280 @@ -39932,7 +35419,7 @@ EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 110 EJ f ral gas, 50 EJ for coal, and 150 EJ for oil. -**_8.8.2 Africa: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.8.2 Africa: Power Sector Analysis** The African continent has 54 countries and its geographic, economic, and climatic @@ -39948,7 +35435,7 @@ Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) with the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP). It was politically endorsed in January 2014 at the Assembly of the International -Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA 2014 ). +Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA [^2014]:). **8.8.2.1 Africa: Development of Power Plant Capacities** @@ -39968,7 +35455,7 @@ transition times in the two scenarios differ. Africa must build up solar PV and onshore wind markets equal to the market sizes in China in 2017: 50 GW of solar -PV installation (REN21-GSR2018) and 23 GW of onshore wind (GWEC 2018 ). +PV installation (REN21-GSR2018) and 23 GW of onshore wind (GWEC [^2018]:). The market for CSP plants must reach about 1 GW per year by 2025, increasing @@ -39993,13 +35480,11 @@ African Clean Energy Corridor (ACEC) will be implemented successfully. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 281 ``` -``` The development of average capacity factors for each generation type will follow -``` + the same trend as in most world regions. Table 8.47 shows the significant drop in the capacity factors of limited dispatchable power plants under the 1.5 °C Scenario. @@ -40049,12 +35534,12 @@ change of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal 2 0 − 2 − 7 − 4 0 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal 2 0 −2 −7 −4 0 Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 6 3 10 16 13 14 Hydrogen-gas 0 0 1 3 15 32 -Oil/diesel − 1 − 2 − 2 − 2 − 1 − 1 +Oil/diesel −1 −2 −2 −2 −1 −1 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass 1 3 2 3 2 3 Hydro 2 1 1 1 0 0 @@ -40067,8 +35552,7 @@ Solar thermal power plants 0 2 4 9 18 16 Ocean energy 0 1 1 1 3 3 Renewable fuel based co-generation 1 2 2 2 1 1 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 282 @@ -40097,8 +35581,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -40110,8 +35593,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` North Africa @@ -40605,7 +36087,6 @@ Africa ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 283 ``` @@ -40870,8 +36351,7 @@ Variable: renewable ``` 27% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 284 @@ -41412,7 +36892,6 @@ South Africa ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 285 ``` @@ -41447,8 +36926,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -41463,8 +36941,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -42106,13 +37583,9 @@ South Africa 3924 ``` ``` -0 +0 (continued) ``` -``` -(continued) -``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 286 @@ -42141,8 +37614,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -42157,8 +37629,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -42301,40 +37772,28 @@ Table 8.49 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 287 ``` one of the global renewable fuel production regions and it is assumed that all sub- - regions of Africa have equal amounts of energy export potential. However, a more - detailed examination of export energy is required, which is beyond the scope of this - project. **8.9 The Middle East** -**_8.9.1 The Middle East: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.9.1 The Middle East: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.9.1.1 The Middle East: Final Energy Demand by Sector** The future development pathways for the Middle East’s final energy demand when - the assumptions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are com- - bined are shown in Fig. 8.53 for the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and 1.5  °C Scenarios. In the - 5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 133% from the cur- - rent 17,100 PJ/year to around 40,000 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the - final energy demand will decrease by 8% compared with current consumption and - will reach 15,800 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario - will reach 13,600 PJ, 20% below the 2015 demand level. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the - final energy demand in 2050 will be 14% lower than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. The ``` @@ -42344,37 +37803,37 @@ final energy demand in 2050 will be 14% lower than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. The 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -3,50 0 +3,500 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -4,50 0 +4,500 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` 0 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` 10,000 @@ -42457,10 +37916,9 @@ Industry fuelsIndustry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.53** Middle East: development of the final energy demand by sector in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.53 Middle East: development of the final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 288 @@ -42474,9 +37932,8 @@ year in 2050), the efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios wi a maximum of 1100 TWh/year and 1170 TWh/year, respectively. -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand. In the -``` + 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will rise to approximately 800 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector, the @@ -42550,14 +38007,11 @@ ocean) of 39% and 46%, respectively, by 2030, and 64% and 66%, respectively, by ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 289 ``` **Table 8.50** Middle East: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 16 20 22 25 29 2.0 °C 16 22 22 25 29 @@ -42583,27 +38037,27 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Total 5.0 °C 16 32 45 79 132 2.0 °C 16 174 427 1290 1911 1.5 °C 16 197 500 1449 1699 -``` + ``` 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -42669,10 +38123,9 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.54** Middle East: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.54 Middle East: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 290 @@ -42680,45 +38133,26 @@ Coal Figure 8.55 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated - -electricity- generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 7.1 ct/kWh. +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated +electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 7.1 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach - 14.8 ct/kWh, and then drop to 13.7 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs in the - 2.0  °C Scenario will increase until 2030, when they reach 11.1 ct/kWh, and then - drop to 6.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 10.7 ct/ - kWh, and then drop to 7.3 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation - costs in 2050 will be 7.6 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, - the generation costs in 2050 will be 6.4 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note - that these estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs - such as power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will cause -``` the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $70 billion/year to more than - $410 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs will be $300 - billion/year and in the 1.5  °C Scenario, they will be $310 billion/year. The long- - term cost of electricity supply will be more than 27% lower in the 2.0 °C Scenario - than in the 5.0  °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the - electrification of heating and mobility. Further demand reductions in the 1.5  °C - Scenario will result in total power-generation costs that are 24% lower than in the - 5.0 °C case. ``` @@ -42784,28 +38218,25 @@ Scenario will result in total power-generation costs that are 24% lower than in ``` billion ct/kWh ``` -``` $ -``` + ``` 2.0°C efficiency measures 2.0°C 1.5°C efficiency measures 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.55** Middle East: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- +## Fig. 8.55 Middle East: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- + generation costs in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 291 ``` -``` -The generation costs without the CO 2 emission costs will increase in the 5.0 °C -``` +The generation costs without the CO[^2]: emission costs will increase in the 5.0 °C case to 11.1 ct/kWh by 2030, and then stabilize at 10.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario and the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to a maximum of 9 ct/ @@ -42818,73 +38249,44 @@ In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the generation costs will be 4.7 ct/kWh lower than in the maximum difference in generation costs compared with the 5.0 °C case will be -3.5 ct/kWh in 2050. If the CO 2 costs are not considered, the total electricity supply - +3.5 ct/kWh in 2050. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $320 billion/year by 2050. **8.9.1.4 The Middle East: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of around $3450 billion will be required for power generation - between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace- - ment at the ends of their economic lives. This value will be equivalent to approxi- - mately $96 billion per year on average, and this is $2720 billion more than in the - 5.0 °C case ($730 billion). An investment of around $3470 billion for power genera- - tion will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario, or on average, - $96 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in conventional power - plants will be around 68% of the total cumulative investments, whereas approxi- - mately 32% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-generation - (Fig. 8.56). However, in both alternative scenarios, the Middle East will shift almost - 94% of its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil - fuel share of power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants - that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $2900 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $81 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be - equivalent to 110% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C - Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $3100 billion, - or $86 billion per year. **8.9.1.5 The Middle East: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase by 139% in the 5.0 °C Scenario, - from 7100 PJ/year in 2015 to 17,100 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 59% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario, relative to the 5.0  °C case, and by 62% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Today, - renewables supply almost none of the Middle East’s final energy demand for heat- - ing. Renewable energy will provide 23% of the Middle East’s total heat demand in - 2030  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and 25% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. In both scenarios, - renewables will provide 100% of the total heat demand in 2050. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 292 @@ -42899,16 +38301,16 @@ for all scenarios. The growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat 0 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -8,00 0 +8,000 ``` ``` 10,000 @@ -42985,7 +38387,7 @@ Solar heating Biomass Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.57** Middle East: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.57 Middle East: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` Fossil @@ -43039,12 +38441,11 @@ Renewable 0% total 3,470 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.56** Middle East: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.56 Middle East: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 293 ``` @@ -43070,44 +38471,27 @@ Total 5.0 °C 28 149 370 947 1404 1.5 °C 28 601 1307 3025 3746 ``` supplement electrification, with solar heat becoming the main direct renewable heat - source in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario. - -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 950 PJ/year in the - 2.0 °C Scenario and 920 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of electricity - for heating will also increase by a factor of 9–10 between 2015 and 2050, and its - final energy share will be 36% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 43% in the 1.5 °C - Scenario (Fig. 8.57). **8.9.1.6 The Middle East: Future Investments in the Heating Sector** The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies to 2050 will - amount to less than $440 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments for - plant replacement after their economic lifetimes), or approximately $12 billion per - year. The largest share of investments in the Middle East is assumed to be for heat - pumps (more than $200 billion), followed by solar collectors and geothermal heat - use. The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technolo- - gies. However, the lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0  °C Scenario) will - result in a lower average annual investment of around $10 billion per year - (Table 8.52, Fig. 8.58). -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results ``` biomass @@ -43181,16 +38565,16 @@ pumps 39% ``` ``` -1.5°C: 2015-205 0 +1.5°C: 2015-2050 ``` ``` total 360 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.58** Middle East: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in +## Fig. 8.58 Middle East: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in + the scenarios **Table 8.52** Middle East: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 4 10 14 25 38 2.0 °C 4 13 15 18 14 @@ -43207,8 +38591,8 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Totala 5.0 °C 6 26 65 164 237 2.0 °C 6 99 183 297 418 1.5 °C 6 96 178 286 330 -a Excluding direct electric heating +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` 295 @@ -43216,51 +38600,30 @@ a Excluding direct electric heating **8.9.1.7 The Middle East: transport** Energy demand in the transport sector in the Middle East is expected to increase in - the 5.0 °C Scenario by 133%, from around 5700 PJ/year in 2015 to 13,300 PJ/year - in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural - changes will save 67% (8860 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. - Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport - demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 79% (or - 10,400 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.53, Fig. 8.59). - -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 4% (70 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s total -``` energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 39% (480 - TWh/year). In 2050, up to 620 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the transport - sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the annual - electricity demand will be 350 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a - hydrogen demand of 450 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 370 PJ/year. -``` Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro- - duced, with a maximum consumption of 1670 PJ/year in 2050. Biofuel use in the - 1.5 °C Scenario with have a maximum of 430 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel - demand will amount to 920 PJ/year. **Table 8.53** Middle East: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Rail 5.0 °C 184 38 48 65 75 2.0 °C 184 64 103 169 157 1.5 °C 184 89 117 161 194 -Road 5.0 °C 5425 6613 7802 10,999 12,992 +Road 5.0 °C [^5425]: [^6613]: [^7802]: 10,999 12,992 2.0 °C 5425 5928 5732 4510 4194 1.5 °C 5425 5246 4528 2899 2618 Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 57 83 103 136 146 @@ -43269,76 +38632,59 @@ Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 57 83 103 136 146 Domestic navigation 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 °C 0 0 0 0 0 -Total 5.0 °C 5666 6734 7954 11,200 13,213 +Total 5.0 °C [^5666]: [^6734]: [^7954]: 11,200 13,213 2.0 °C 5666 6051 5893 4726 4388 1.5 °C 5666 5392 4697 3096 2840 -``` -8 Energy Scenario Results +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 296 -**8.9.1.8 The Middle East: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the Middle East’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by +**8.9.1.8 The Middle East: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the Middle East’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 76% from 1760 Mt. in 2015 to 3094 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 510 Mt. in 2040  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 220 Mt. in the 1.5  °C Scenario, with further -reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions - +reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 90 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 38 - Gt and 31 Gt, respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 66% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Industry’ followed by the ‘Power gen- - eration’ and ‘Transport’ sectors (Fig. 8.60). **8.9.1.9 The Middle East: Primary Energy Consumption** The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump- - tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. 8.61. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 16%, from around 30,300 - PJ/year in 2015 to 25,400 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the - overall primary energy demand will decrease by 59% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario - (5.0 °C: 61,700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will - be even lower (22,300 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion - losses will be lower. ``` 0 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -8,00 0 +8,000 ``` ``` 10,000 @@ -43418,12 +38764,11 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.59** Middle East: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.59 Middle East: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 297 ``` @@ -43554,14 +38899,15 @@ emissions 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.60** Middle East: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions +## Fig. 8.60 Middle East: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions + (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` 0 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` 20,000 @@ -43570,16 +38916,16 @@ emissions 30,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` -60,00 0 +60,000 ``` ``` -70,00 0 +70,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -43642,6 +38988,8 @@ Geothermal ``` ``` Solar +``` +``` Biomass ``` ``` @@ -43658,19 +39006,20 @@ Crude oil ``` ``` Coal +``` +``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.61** Middle East: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the +## Fig. 8.61 Middle East: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the + scenarios (including electricity import balance) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 298 -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` + will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 18% in 2030 and 88% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a @@ -43693,7 +39042,7 @@ fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 280 EJ for natural gas, 0.9 coal, and 270 EJ for oil. -**_8.9.2 The Middle East: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.9.2 The Middle East: Power Sector Analysis** The Middle East has significant renewable energy potential. The region’s solar radi- @@ -43729,7 +39078,7 @@ wind market must expand to 10 GW by 2025 in both scenarios. This represents a very ambitious target because the market for wind power plants in the Middle East -has never been higher than 117 MW (GWEC 2018 ) (in 2015). Parts of the offshore +has never been higher than 117 MW (GWEC [^2018]:) (in 2015). Parts of the offshore oil and gas industry can be transitioned into an offshore wind industry. The total @@ -43737,12 +39086,11 @@ capacity assumed for the Middle East by 2050 is 20–25 GW under both scenarios. For comparison, the UK had an installed capacity for offshore wind of 6.8 GW and -Germany of 5.4 GW in 2017 (GWEC 2018 ). The vast solar resources in the Middle +Germany of 5.4 GW in 2017 (GWEC [^2018]:). The vast solar resources in the Middle ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 299 ``` @@ -43754,7 +39102,7 @@ annual change of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Hard coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lignite 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gas 1.5 7.0 1.9 6.2 −19.1 3.0 @@ -43798,9 +39146,8 @@ renewables will have a stable market share of around 15%–20% over the entire modelling period in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 15%–20% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` Average capacity factors correspond to the results for the other world regions. -``` + Table 8.56 shows that the limited dispatchable fossil and nuclear generation will drop quickly, whereas the significant gas power plant capacity within the region can @@ -43811,8 +39158,7 @@ early stage. The calculation results are attributed to the assumed dispatch orde which prioritizes gas over coal and nuclear. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 300 @@ -43844,8 +39190,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -43857,8 +39202,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Israel @@ -44295,7 +39639,6 @@ Iraq-ME ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 301 ``` @@ -44428,16 +39771,14 @@ Middle East ``` 13% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 302 **8.9.2.3 The Middle East: Development of Load, Generation,** -``` -and Residual Load -``` +**and Residual Load** + The Middle East is assumed to be one of the exporters of solar electricity into the EU, so the calculated solar installation capacities throughout the region will be sig- @@ -44453,9 +39794,8 @@ tion of renewables is almost constantly higher than the demand. This electricity been calculated as exports from the Middle East and imports to Europe. -``` The Middle East will be one of three dedicated renewable energy export regions. -``` + These exports are in the form of renewable fuels and electricity. The [R]E 24/7 model does not calculate electricity exchange in 1 h steps between the world regions, @@ -44491,12 +39831,12 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -Middle East 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +Middle East 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]52.6% 45% 43% 27% 24% 34% 21% 29% 25% +[%/yr] 52.6% 45% 43% 27% 24% 34% 21% 29% 25% ``` ``` Limited @@ -44505,7 +39845,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]31.1% 13% 13% 5% 2% 19% 3% 10% 5% +[%/yr] 31.1% 13% 13% 5% 2% 19% 3% 10% 5% ``` ``` Limited @@ -44513,21 +39853,21 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]26.3% 34% 34% 47% 42% 50% 21% 28% 30% +[%/yr] 26.3% 34% 34% 47% 42% 50% 21% 28% 30% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]52.9% 41% 40% 15% 10% 45% 8% 17% 16% +[%/yr] 52.9% 41% 40% 15% 10% 45% 8% 17% 16% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]38.9% 83% 83% 66% 57% 43% 20% 36% 38% +[%/yr] 38.9% 83% 83% 66% 57% 43% 20% 36% 38% ``` ``` Variable: @@ -44539,7 +39879,6 @@ renewable ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 303 ``` @@ -45266,8 +40605,7 @@ Iran-ME ``` 214 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 304 @@ -45302,8 +40640,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -45318,8 +40655,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -45762,7 +41098,6 @@ UAE ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 305 ``` @@ -46174,43 +41509,29 @@ Middle East ``` 8630 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 306 **8.10 Eastern Europe/Eurasia** -**_8.10.1 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.10.1 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.10.1.1 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Final Energy Demand by Sector** The future development pathways for Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s final energy demand - when the assumptions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are - combined are shown in Fig. 8.62 for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios. In the - 5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 45%, from the cur- - rent 25,500 PJ/year to 37,000 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the final - energy demand will decrease by 25% compared with current consumption and will - reach 19,100 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario will - reach 17,800 PJ, 30% below the 2015 level. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the final energy - demand in 2050 will be 7% lower than in the 2.0  °C Scenario. The electricity - demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-to-heat or e-mobility) will - increase from 910 TWh/year in 2015 to 1000 TWh/year (2.0 °C) or 940 TWh/year - (1.5  °C) by 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C case (1600 TWh/year in 2050), the - efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will save a maximum of 600 - TWh/year and 660 TWh/year, respectively. ``` @@ -46289,19 +41610,18 @@ Industry fuels Industry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.62** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of the final energy demand by sector in the +## Fig. 8.62 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of the final energy demand by sector in the + scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 307 ``` -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approxi- mately 700 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport @@ -46320,9 +41640,8 @@ Scenario, 88% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the gr tricity demand will increase to a maximum of 4800 TWh/year in 2050. -``` Efficiency gains could be even larger in the heating sector than in the electricity -``` + sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equivalent to more than 10,700 PJ/year is avoided by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario @@ -46372,8 +41691,7 @@ wind, and ocean) of 28% and 32%, respectively, by 2030, and 62% and 61%, respectively, by 2050. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 308 @@ -46381,24 +41699,16 @@ respectively, by 2050. Figure 8.64 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated - -electricity- generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.5 ct/kWh. +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated +electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.5 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 10 - ct/kWh. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when - they will reach 8.6 ct/kWh. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 9.3 ct/kWh, - and then drop to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs in - 2050 will be 1.4 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the - generation costs in 2050 will be 1.1 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that - these estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as - power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures. **Table 8.59** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in @@ -46434,7 +41744,6 @@ Total 5.0 °C 108 126 136 159 186 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 309 ``` @@ -46442,22 +41751,22 @@ S. Teske et al. 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -46526,7 +41835,8 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.63** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of electricity-generation structure in the +## Fig. 8.63 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of electricity-generation structure in the + scenarios ``` @@ -46577,45 +41887,31 @@ scenarios ``` billion ct/kWh ``` -``` $ -``` + ``` 2.0°C efficiency measures 2.0°C 1.5°C efficiency measures 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -``` -Fig. 8.64 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of total electricity supply costs and specific -electricity- generation costs in the scenarios -``` -``` -8 Energy Scenario Results -``` +## Fig. 8.64 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of total electricity supply costs and specific + +electricity-generation costs in the scenarios + +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 310 -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth of demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $120 billion/year to more - than $320 billion/year in 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the total supply costs - will be $490 billion/year in 2050. The long-term costs of electricity supply will be - more than 54% higher in the 2.0 °C Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result - of the estimated generation costs and the electrification of heating and mobility. - Further electrification and synthetic fuel generation in the 1.5  °C Scenario will - result in total power generation costs that are 55% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 6.9 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the generation costs will increase continuously until 2050, when they @@ -46630,63 +41926,37 @@ mum difference in generation costs compared with the 5.0 °C case will be 2.6 c kWh in 2040. The generation costs in 2050 will still be 2 ct/kWh higher than in the -5.0 °C case. If the CO 2 costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in - +5.0 °C case. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $240 billion in 2050. **8.10.1.4 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Future Investments in the Power** +**Sector** -``` -Sector -``` An investment of around $3600 billion will be required for power generation - between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace- - ment at the end of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately - $100 billion per year on average, and is $2660 billion more than in the 5.0 °C case - ($940 billion). An investment of around $3770 billion for power generation will be - required between 2015 and 2050  in the 1.5  °C Scenario. On average, this is an - investment of $105 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in con- - ventional power plants will be around 40% of the total cumulative investments, - whereas approximately 60% will be invested in renewable power generation and - co-generation (Fig. 8.65). - -``` However, in the 2.0  °C (1.5  °C) scenario, Eastern Europe/Eurasia will shift -``` almost 97% (98%) of its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By - 2030, the fossil fuel share of the power sector investments will predominantly focus - on gas power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $1730 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $48 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be - equivalent to 70% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C - Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $1900 billion, - or $53 billion per year. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 311 ``` @@ -46706,9 +41976,8 @@ CHP Renewable 34% ``` -``` 5.0°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 938 billion $ @@ -46738,74 +42007,53 @@ H2) ``` ``` CHP -24 % +24% ``` ``` Renewable 73% ``` -``` 1.5°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 3,770 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.65** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.65 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios **8.10.1.5 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 46%, - from 15,700 PJ/year in 2015 to 22,900 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 47% in 2050 in both alterna- - tive scenarios. Today, renewables supply around 4% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s - final energy demand for heating, with the main contribution from biomass. - Renewable energy will provide 29% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s total heat demand - in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 42% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In both scenarios, - renewables will provide 100% of the total heat demand in 2050. - -``` Figure 8.66 shows the development of different technologies for heating in -``` Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time, and Table 8.60 provides the resulting renewable - heat supply for all scenarios. Until 2030, biomass will remain the main contributor. - In the long term, the growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will - lead to a biomass share of 28% in both alternative scenarios. - -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 1900 PJ/year in - the 2.0 °C Scenario and 2000 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 312 -``` The direct use of electricity for heating will also increases by a factor of 2.7 -``` + between 2015 and 2050, and its final energy share will be 18% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 19% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. **8.10.1.6 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Future Investments in the Heating** -``` -Sector -``` +**Sector** + The roughly estimated investment in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 will amount to around $1070 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments @@ -46839,16 +42087,16 @@ Total 5.0 °C 548 829 897 1044 1226 5,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -15,00 0 +15,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -25,00 0 +25,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -46918,18 +42166,16 @@ Biomass ``` Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.66** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.66 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 313 ``` **Table 8.61** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 107 150 157 169 183 2.0 °C 107 230 249 263 172 @@ -46946,7 +42192,8 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 1 1 2 2 3 Totala 5.0 °C 109 154 162 177 196 2.0 °C 109 325 483 841 839 1.5 °C 109 361 522 758 805 -a Excluding direct electric heating + +aExcluding direct electric heating per year. The largest share of the investments in Eastern Europe/Eurasia is assumed @@ -46976,53 +42223,33 @@ transport demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenari 62% (or 4970 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.62, Fig. 8.68). -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 14% (240 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 54% - (630 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 410 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans- - port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual - electricity demand will be 510 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a - hydrogen demand of 330 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 720 PJ/year -``` Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro- -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 314 duced, with a maximum amount of 880 PJ/year in 2050. With the lower overall - energy demand in transport, biofuel use will also be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario - to a maximum of 700 PJ/year The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to - 540 PJ/year. -**8.10.1.8 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase +**8.10.1.8 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 14%, from 2420 Mt. in 2015 to 2768 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation mea- - sures in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 590 Mt. - in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 340 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further - -reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions - +reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 95 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C - Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 45 - Gt and 36 Gt, respectively. ``` @@ -47094,13 +42321,13 @@ heat pumps ``` total 1,060 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.67** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of investments for renewable heat-generation +## Fig. 8.67 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of investments for renewable heat-generation + technologies in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 315 ``` @@ -47226,65 +42453,39 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.68** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.68 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 53% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 53% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 62% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the - ‘Residential and other’ and ‘Industry’ sectors (Fig. 8.69). -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 316 **8.10.1.9 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Primary Energy Consumption** The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump- - tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. 8.70. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 25%, from around 46,000 - PJ/year in 2015 to 34,600 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the - overall primary energy demand will decrease by 40% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario - (5.0 °C: 57,700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will - be even lower (33,600 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion - losses will be lower. - -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 26% in 2030 and - 91% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a - primary energy share of more than 90% in 2050 (including non-energy consump- - tion, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out by - 2040  in both the 2.0  °C Scenario and 1.5  °C Scenario. The cumulative primary - energy consumption of natural gas in the 5.0  °C case will add up to 840 EJ, the - cumulative coal consumption to about 290 EJ, and the crude oil consumption to 340 - EJ. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to - 510 EJ, the cumulative coal demand to 100 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to - 160 EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 450 EJ - for natural gas, 70 EJ for coal, and 120 EJ for oil. ``` @@ -47315,19 +42516,19 @@ for natural gas, 70 EJ for coal, and 120 EJ for oil. 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -47385,8 +42586,7 @@ emissions CO ``` ``` -2 -emissions +emissions 2 ``` ``` [Mt/yr] @@ -47398,13 +42598,13 @@ emissions 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.69** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 +### Fig. 8.69 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 + emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 317 ``` @@ -47515,10 +42715,11 @@ Coal ``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.70** Eastern Europe/Eurasia: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy +## Fig. 8.70 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy + carrier in the scenarios (including electricity import balance) -**_8.10.2 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.10.2 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Power Sector Analysis** This region sits between the strong economic hubs of the EU, China, and India. @@ -47528,15 +42729,14 @@ and gas, and supplies all surrounding countries. Therefore, Eurasia will be key future energy developments. Its renewable energy industry is among the smallest in -the world, but recent developments indicate growth in both the wind (WPM 3- 2018 ) +the world, but recent developments indicate growth in both the wind (WPM 3-[^2018]:) -and solar industries (PVM 3- 2018 ). +and solar industries (PVM 3-[^2018]:). **8.10.2.1 Eurasia: Development of Power Plant Capacities—2.0 °C** -``` -Scenario -``` +**Scenario** + The northern part of Eurasia and Mongolia have significant wind potential, whereas the southern part, especially in Central Asia, has substantial possibilities for utility- @@ -47553,8 +42753,7 @@ Eurasia, especially in the European part, Russia, and the agricultural regions a the Caspian Sea (Table 8.63). -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 318 @@ -47577,9 +42776,8 @@ Central Asia, the area around the Caspian Sea, and Mongolia will remain low due geographic distances. -``` Compared with other world regions, it will take longer for the capacity factor of -``` + the limited dispatchable power plants to drop below economic viability, as shown in Table 8.65. @@ -47607,13 +42805,13 @@ change of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal − 1 − 6 − 6 − 4 0 0 -Lignite − 3 − 4 − 2 − 1 0 0 -Gas 4 1 0 − 2 − 17 − 5 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal −1 −6 −6 −4 0 0 +Lignite −3 −4 −2 −1 0 0 +Gas 4 1 0 −2 −17 −5 Hydrogen-gas 0 2 2 4 20 17 -Oil/Diesel − 2 − 2 − 1 − 1 0 0 -Nuclear − 2 − 3 − 2 − 4 − 1 0 +Oil/Diesel −2 −2 −1 −1 0 0 +Nuclear −2 −3 −2 −4 −1 0 Biomass 3 8 3 5 4 2 Hydro 2 1 1 1 0 0 Wind (onshore) 7 20 26 28 24 21 @@ -47628,7 +42826,6 @@ Renewable fuel based co-generation 2 7 4 7 5 3 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 319 ``` @@ -47660,8 +42857,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -47673,8 +42869,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Eastern Europe @@ -48111,8 +43306,7 @@ East Caspian Sea ``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 320 @@ -48138,8 +43332,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -48151,8 +43344,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Central Asia @@ -48292,7 +43484,6 @@ Table 8.64 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 321 ``` @@ -48304,13 +43495,13 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -Eurasia 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +Eurasia 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]36.8% 31% 40% 48% 47% 34% 34% 34% 34% +[%/yr] 36.8% 31% 40% 48% 47% 34% 34% 34% 34% ``` ``` Limited @@ -48319,7 +43510,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]43.8% 31% 30% 22% 18% 19% 0% 7% 4% +[%/yr] 43.8% 31% 30% 22% 18% 19% 0% 7% 4% ``` ``` Limited @@ -48327,63 +43518,46 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]39.3% 42% 42% 57% 54% 60% 39% 39% 40% +[%/yr] 39.3% 42% 42% 57% 54% 60% 39% 39% 40% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]27.6% 18% 17% 7% 6% 31% 8% 12% 15% +[%/yr] 27.6% 18% 17% 7% 6% 31% 8% 12% 15% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]38.7% 48% 73% 73% 68% 41% 49% 50% 51% +[%/yr] 38.7% 48% 73% 73% 68% 41% 49% 50% 51% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]10.5% 11% 11% 40% 39% 25% 32% 32% 33% -``` +[%/yr] 10.5% 11% 11% 40% 39% 25% 32% 32% 33% ``` Table 8.64. However, after 2030, significant increases will be required by 2050, -``` especially in Russia. The export of renewable electricity can also take place via - existing gas pipelines with power-to-gas technologies. Between 2030 and 2050, the - loads for all regions will double, due to the increased electrification of the heating, - industry, and transport sectors (Table 8.66). - -``` In Eurasia, the main storage technology for both scenarios is pumped hydro, -``` whereas hydrogen plays a major role for the grid integration of variable generation - (Table 8.67). Hydrogen production can also be used for load management, although - not for short peak loads. Due to the technical and economic limitations associated - with the increased interconnection via transmission lines and pumped hydro storage - systems, curtailment will be higher than the scenario target (a maximum of 10% by - 2050). For Eastern Europe, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and the East Caspian Sea, the - calculated curtailment will be between 10% and 14%, whereas the West Caspian - Region will have the highest curtailment of 19% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 17% in - the 1.5 °C Scenario. Further research and optimization are required. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 322 @@ -49002,7 +44176,6 @@ Central Asia ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 323 ``` @@ -49037,8 +44210,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -49053,8 +44225,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -49696,11 +44867,9 @@ East Caspian Sea 1775 ``` ``` -30,852 -(continued) +30,852(continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 324 @@ -49735,8 +44904,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -49751,8 +44919,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -49991,7 +45158,6 @@ Eurasia Eastern Europe ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 325 ``` @@ -49999,46 +45165,46 @@ S. Teske et al. 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -7,00 0 +7,000 ``` ``` 0 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` 30,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` -60,00 0 +60,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -50097,49 +45263,33 @@ Industry fuelsIndustry electricity Residential & other sectors fuels Residential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.71** Non-OECD Asia: development of the final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.71 Non-OECD Asia: development of the final energy demand by sector in the scenarios **8.11 Non-OECD Asia** -**_8.11.1 Non-OECD Asia: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.11.1 Non-OECD Asia: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.11.1.1 Non-OECD Asia: Final Energy Demand by Sector** The future development pathways for Non-OECD Asia’s final energy demand when - the assumptions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are com- - bined are shown in Fig. 8.71 for the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and 1.5  °C Scenarios. In the - 5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 111% from the cur- - rent 24,500 PJ/year to 51,800 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the final - energy demand will increase at a much lower rate by 16% compared with current - consumption, and will reach 28,300 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in - the 1.5 °C Scenario will reach 25,700 PJ, 5% above the 2015 demand. In the 1.5 °C - Scenario, the final energy demand in 2050 will be 9% lower than in the 2.0  °C - Scenario. The electricity demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power- - -to- heat or e-mobility) will increase from 830 TWh/year in 2015 to 2480 TWh/year - +to-heat or e-mobility) will increase from 830 TWh/year in 2015 to 2480 TWh/year in 2050 in both alternative scenarios. Compared with the reference case (3880 TWh/ - year in 2050), the efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios will save - 1400 TWh/year in 2050. - -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approxi- -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 326 @@ -50159,9 +45309,8 @@ rise from 1400 TWh/year in 2015 to 6400 TWh/year in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenar demand will increase to a maximum of 6000 TWh/year in 2050. -``` The efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than those in the -``` + electricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equivalent to about 6900 PJ/year and 8100 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided by @@ -50213,27 +45362,21 @@ respectively, by 2050. Figure 8.73 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- - +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- tricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 5.2 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 11.7 - ct/kWh. The generation costs will increase in the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030, when - they will reach 8.1 ct/kWh, and will drop to 6.3 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5  °C ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 327 ``` **Table 8.68** Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 63 85 124 151 183 2.0 °C 63 86 86 90 91 @@ -50259,7 +45402,7 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Total 5.0 °C 78 113 191 257 348 2.0 °C 78 276 610 1518 2432 1.5 °C 78 373 804 1658 2325 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -50285,7 +45428,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 78 113 191 257 348 7,000 ``` ``` -5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C +5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -50307,10 +45450,9 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.72** Non-OECD Asia: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.72 Non-OECD Asia: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 328 @@ -50365,50 +45507,33 @@ Coal ``` billion ct/kWh ``` -``` $ -``` + ``` 2.0°C efficiency measures 2.0°C 1.5°C efficiency measures 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.73** Non-OECD Asia: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity +## Fig. 8.73 Non-OECD Asia: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity + generation costs in the scenarios Scenario, they will increase to 7.9 ct/kWh, and drop to 6.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In both - alternative scenarios, the generation costs in 2050 will be around 5.5 ct/kWh lower - than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these estimates of generation costs do not take into - account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage, or other load- - balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $70 billion/year to more - than $560 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs will be - $430 billion/year and in the 1.5  °C Scenario they will be $390 billion/year. The - long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 24% lower in the 2.0  °C - Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and - the electrification of heating and mobility. Further reductions in demand in the - 1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation costs that are 30% lower than - in the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 7.4 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, they still increase until 2030, when they reach 6.5 ct/kWh, and then drop @@ -50419,8 +45544,7 @@ then drop to 6.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C case, the generation costs will maximum in 2050, and 1.1 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C, whereas they will be -1.3 ct/kWh in the 1.5  °C Scenario. If the CO 2 costs are not considered, the total - +1.3 ct/kWh in the 1.5  °C Scenario. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to about $360 billion/year in 2050. @@ -50428,41 +45552,25 @@ electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to about $360 billio ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 329 ``` **8.11.1.4 Non-OECD Asia: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of $4030 billion will be required for power generation between 2015 - and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including investment in additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace- - ment at the end of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approxi- - mately $112 billion per year on average, and is $2660 billion more than in the - 5.0 °C case ($1370 billion). An investment of around $3950 billion for power gen- - eration will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, - this is an investment of $110 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment - in conventional power plants will be around 55% of the total cumulative invest- - ments, whereas approximately 45% will be invested in renewable power generation - and co-generation (Fig. 8.74). - -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, Non-OECD Asia will shift almost 93% -``` (95%) of its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil - fuel share of power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants - that can also be operated with hydrogen. ``` @@ -50481,9 +45589,8 @@ CHP Renewable 44% ``` -``` 5.0°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 1,366 billion $ @@ -50520,72 +45627,45 @@ CHP Renewable 89% ``` -``` 1.5°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 3,950 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.74** Non-OECD Asia: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.74 Non-OECD Asia: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 330 -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative fuel -``` cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $2610 billion in 2050, equiva- - lent to $73 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be equivalent to - 98% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario. The fuel cost - savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $2770 billion, or $77 billion per year. **8.11.1.5 Non-OECD Asia: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase by 103% in the 5.0 °C scenario, - from 10,800 PJ/year in 2015 to 21,900 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 32% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C - Scenario, relative to the 5.0  °C case, and by 37% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Today, - renewables supply around 43% of Non-OECD Asia’s final energy demand for heat- - ing, with the main contribution from biomass. Renewable energy will provide 57% - of Non-OECD Asia’s total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 70% in - the 1.5 °C Scenario. In both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total - heat demand in 2050. - -``` Figure 8.75 shows the development of different technologies for heating in Non- -``` OECD Asia over time, and Table 8.69 provides the resulting renewable heat supply - for all scenarios. Up to 2030, biomass remains the main contributor. In the long - term, the growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead to a - biomass share of 40% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 38% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The - heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels in - both scenarios. The hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 900 PJ/year in - the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1300 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of elec- - tricity for heating will also increase by a factor of 5-5.7 between 2015 and 2050. - Energy for heating will have a final energy share of 34% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario and 32% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. ``` @@ -50595,16 +45675,16 @@ Scenario and 32% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. 5,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -15,00 0 +15,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -25,00 0 +25,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -50674,12 +45754,11 @@ Biomass ``` Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.75** Non-OECD Asia: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.75 Non-OECD Asia: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 331 ``` @@ -50719,11 +45798,8 @@ transport demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenari 73% (or 9660 PJ/year) by 2050 compared to the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.71, Fig. 8.77). -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 6% (120 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 36% - (480 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 650 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans- **Table 8.69** Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding @@ -50747,8 +45823,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 4464 4811 4821 4948 5047 2.0 °C 4464 5222 6398 8501 9942 1.5 °C 4464 5542 7083 8516 9411 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 332 @@ -50828,11 +45903,11 @@ heat pumps ``` total 1,005 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.76** Non-OECD Asia: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technolo- +## Fig. 8.76 Non-OECD Asia: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technolo- + gies in the scenarios **Table 8.70** Non-OECD Asia: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 1886 1925 1767 1610 1459 2.0 °C 1886 1850 1557 1150 821 @@ -50849,12 +45924,12 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Totala 5.0 °C 1888 1928 1777 1631 1496 2.0 °C 1888 1981 1954 1944 1825 1.5 °C 1888 2004 2127 1847 1598 -a Excluding direct electric heating + +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 333 ``` @@ -50864,9 +45939,8 @@ electricity demand will be 350 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a hydrogen demand of 500 PJ/year by 2050. -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 1940 PJ/year -``` + Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro- duced, with a maximum amount of 530 PJ/year in 2050. Due to the lower overall @@ -50909,13 +45983,13 @@ Total 5.0 °C 6521 7789 10,010 11,970 13,153 8,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -12,00 0 +12,000 ``` ``` -14,00 0 +14,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -50969,6 +46043,8 @@ PJ/yr Efficiency (compared to 5.0°C) +``` +``` Hydrogen ``` ``` @@ -50986,44 +46062,30 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.77** Non-OECD Asia: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.77 Non-OECD Asia: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 334 maximum of 1540 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to - 280 PJ/year. -**8.11.1.8 Non-OECD Asia: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Non-OECD Asia’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by +**8.11.1.8 Non-OECD Asia: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Non-OECD Asia’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 160%, from 1880 Mt. in 2015 to 4880 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation mea- sures in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 630 Mt. - in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 330 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further - -reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions - +reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 121 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C - Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 42 - Gt and 32 Gt, respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 65% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 65% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 74% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the - ‘Residential and other’ and ‘Industry’ sectors (Fig. 8.78). ``` @@ -51054,22 +46116,22 @@ Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -51139,13 +46201,13 @@ emissions 2 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.78** Non-OECD Asia: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emis- +## Fig. 8.78 Non-OECD Asia: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emis- + sions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 335 ``` @@ -51167,9 +46229,8 @@ be even lower (39,300 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion losses will be lower. -``` Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario aim to rapidly phase-out coal and -``` + oil. This will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 40% in 2030 and 93% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, renewables will @@ -51297,11 +46358,11 @@ Coal ``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.79** Non-OECD Asia: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in +## Fig. 8.79 Non-OECD Asia: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in + the scenarios (including electricity import balance) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 336 @@ -51313,11 +46374,11 @@ EJ. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amoun for natural gas, 70 EJ for coal, and 190 EJ for oil. -**_8.11.2 Non-OECD Asia: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.11.2 Non-OECD Asia: Power Sector Analysis** Non-OECD Asia is the most heterogeneous region of all IEA world energy regions -because it includes not only all the ASEAN countries (ASEAN 2018 ) of South East +because it includes not only all the ASEAN countries (ASEAN [^2018]:) of South East Asia, but also central and south Asian nations, as well all 16 Pacific Island states. As @@ -51368,7 +46429,6 @@ able, and that there will not be any at the end of the modelling period (Table  ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 337 ``` @@ -51378,9 +46438,8 @@ around 25% in all sub-regions, whereas dispatchable renewables will remain stabl at around 25%–30% until 2050. -``` Compared with other world regions, the capacity factors for limited dispatchable -``` + fossil and nuclear energy will remain relatively high until 2030, as shown in Table 8.74. The time required for variable power generation to replace fossil and @@ -51393,9 +46452,8 @@ all coal capacities across the region will be phased out by 2030, except for 4 G **8.11.2.3 Non-OECD Asia: Development of Load, Generation,** -``` -and Residual Load -``` +**and Residual Load** + Because both scenarios were calculated under the assumption that there are no interconnection capacities at the sub-regional level, more dispatch capacity will be @@ -51414,12 +46472,12 @@ annual change of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal 2 − 6 − 7 − 4 − 1 0 -Lignite − 2 − 4 − 1 − 2 0 0 -Gas 4 10 19 14 − 26 − 22 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal 2 −6 −7 −4 −1 0 +Lignite −2 −4 −1 −2 0 0 +Gas 4 10 19 14 −26 −22 Hydrogen-gas 0 1 0 6 33 24 -Oil/diesel 0 − 5 − 4 − 5 − 1 0 +Oil/diesel 0 −5 −4 −5 −1 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass 2 1 1 1 1 1 Hydro 3 2 0 0 0 0 @@ -51432,8 +46490,7 @@ Solar thermal power plants 1 6 9 8 17 13 Ocean energy 0 0 1 1 3 2 Renewable fuel based co-generation 1 2 1 1 1 1 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 338 @@ -51462,8 +46519,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch Fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -51475,8 +46531,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch Fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Asia West: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan @@ -51913,7 +46968,6 @@ Asia South West: Malaysia, Brunei ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 339 ``` @@ -52118,14 +47172,13 @@ Non-OECD Asia ``` 17% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 340 variable renewable generation. According to the Philippine Department of Energy, -the peak demand in the Philippines in 2016 was 13.3 GW (PR-DoE 2016 ) (9.7 GW +the peak demand in the Philippines in 2016 was 13.3 GW (PR-DoE [^2016]:) (9.7 GW in Luzon, 1.9 GW in the Visayas, and 1.7 GW in Mindanao). The calculated load for @@ -52135,9 +47188,8 @@ to 75.5 GW by 2050 under the 2.0  °C Scenario. The results for all Asian regio show a quadrupling of load by 2050. -``` The lack of interconnection potential between or even within most sub-regions -``` + will lead to some curtailment. ``` @@ -52158,7 +47210,7 @@ dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 Non-OECD -Asia 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +Asia 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` @@ -52172,7 +47224,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]71.4% 52% 53% 44% 33% 31% 13% 25% 0% +[%/yr] 71.4% 52% 53% 44% 33% 31% 13% 25% 0% ``` ``` Limited @@ -52180,33 +47232,32 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]40.5% 61% 61% 59% 56% 58% 53% 45% 49% +[%/yr] 40.5% 61% 61% 59% 56% 58% 53% 45% 49% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]50.2% 32% 33% 23% 27% 37% 13% 28% 12% +[%/yr] 50.2% 32% 33% 23% 27% 37% 13% 28% 12% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]34.4% 75% 75% 74% 69% 41% 58% 53% 51% +[%/yr] 34.4% 75% 75% 74% 69% 41% 58% 53% 51% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]13.1% 19% 19% 36% 35% 26% 31% 30% 29% +[%/yr] 13.1% 19% 19% 36% 35% 26% 31% 30% 29% ``` ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 341 ``` @@ -52744,8 +47795,7 @@ Asia South West: Malaysia, Brunei ``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 342 @@ -52962,7 +48012,6 @@ Table 8.75 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 343 ``` @@ -52997,8 +48046,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -53013,8 +48061,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -53556,8 +48603,7 @@ Asia Central North: Viet Nam, Laos and Cambodia ``` 45,848(continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 344 @@ -53586,8 +48632,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -53602,8 +48647,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -54052,107 +49096,90 @@ Table 8.76 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 345 ``` **8.12 India** -**_8.12.1 India: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.12.1 India: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.12.1.1 India: Final Energy Demand by Sector** The future development pathways for India’s final energy demand when the assump- - tions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are combined are - shown in Fig. 8.80 for the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and 1.5  °C Scenarios. In the 5.0  °C - Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 201% from the current - 22,200 PJ/year to 66,800 PJ/year by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final energy - demand will increase at a much slower rate by 57% compared with current con- - sumption and will reach 34,900 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the - 1.5  °C Scenario will reach 31,900 PJ, 44% above the 2015 level. In the 1.5  °C - Scenario, the final energy demand in 2050 will be 9% lower than in the 2.0  °C - Scenario. The electricity demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power- - -to- heat or e-mobility) will increase from 750 TWh/year in 2015 to 3200 TWh/year - +to-heat or e-mobility) will increase from 750 TWh/year in 2015 to 3200 TWh/year in 2050 in both alternative scenarios. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (4720 TWh/ - year in 2050), efficiency measures in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios will save - around 1520 TWh/year by 2050. - -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` -2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approximately +2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approximately 1900 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector, ``` 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -7,00 0 +7,000 ``` ``` -8,00 0 +8,000 ``` ``` -9,00 0 +9,000 ``` ``` 0 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -30,00 0 +30,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` -60,00 0 +60,000 ``` ``` -70,00 0 +70,000 ``` ``` -80,00 0 +80,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -54217,10 +49244,9 @@ total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` PJ/yr ``` -**Fig. 8.80** India: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.80 India: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 346 @@ -54238,9 +49264,8 @@ from 1400 TWh/year in 2015 to 8400 TWh/year in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, demand will increases to a maximum of 7700 TWh/year in 2050. -``` Efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the electricity -``` + sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equivalent to about 9500 PJ/year and 9800 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided through effi- @@ -54290,32 +49315,23 @@ tively, by 2030, and 75% and 72%, respectively, by 2050. Figure 8.82 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- - +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- tricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 5.4 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2040, when they reach 11 ct/ - kWh, and then drop to 10.7 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs will increase in - the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030, when they reach 8.4 ct/kWh, and then drop to 5.7 ct/ - kWh by 2050. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, they will increase to 7.8 ct/kWh, and then - drop to 5.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs in 2050 will - be 5 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the generation ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 347 ``` **Table 8.77** India: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 46 68 81 97 117 2.0 °C 46 68 72 80 87 @@ -54341,7 +49357,7 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Total 5.0 °C 84 279 415 648 936 2.0 °C 84 532 1061 2381 3360 1.5 °C 84 742 1361 2540 3037 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -54395,47 +49411,28 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.81** India: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.81 India: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 348 costs in 2050 will be 4.9 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these esti- - mates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as power - grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $75 billion/year to more - than $690 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C case, the total supply costs will be $500 - -billion/year and in the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will be $470 billion/year. The long- term - +billion/year and in the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will be $470 billion/year. The long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 27% lower in the 2.0 °C Scenario than - in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the electrifi- - cation of heating and mobility. Further demand reductions in the 1.5  °C Scenario - will result in total power generation costs that are 32% lower than in the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs, when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs, when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered, will increase in the 5.0 °C case to only 6.9 ct/kWh. In both alter- - native scenarios, they will still increase until 2030, when they reach 6.7 ct/kWh, and - then drop to around 5.8 ct/kWh by 2050. The maximum difference in generation - -costs will be around 1 ct/kWh in 2050. If the CO 2 costs are not considered, the total - +costs will be around 1 ct/kWh in 2050. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $430 billion/year in 2050. **8.12.1.4 India: Future Investments in the Power Sector** @@ -54508,56 +49505,37 @@ billion $ ct/kWh Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.82** India: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation +## Fig. 8.82 India: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation + costs in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 349 ``` billion per year on average, and is $3310 billion more than in the 5.0 °C case ($2330 - billion). An investment of around $5560 billion for power generation will be required - between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this will be an investment - of $154 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in conventional power - plants will be around 48% of the total cumulative investments, whereas approximately - 52% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-generation (Fig. 8.83). - -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, India will shift almost 94% (95%) of -``` its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share - of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants that - can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $3110 billion in 2050, - equivalent to $86 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be - equivalent to 90% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C - Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $3330 billion, - or $93 billion per year. **8.12.1.5 India: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 133%, - from 11,900 PJ/year in 2015 to 27,800 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 34% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ``` @@ -54573,9 +49551,8 @@ CHP Renewable 52% ``` -``` 5.0°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 2,330 billion $ @@ -54584,6 +49561,8 @@ billion $ Fossil (incl. H2) 6% +``` +``` CHP 4% ``` @@ -54610,17 +49589,15 @@ CHP Renewable 91% ``` -``` 1.5°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 5,560 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.83** India: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.83 India: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 350 @@ -54645,16 +49622,15 @@ increasing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead to a bioma share of 38% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 36% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` + under both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 1400 PJ/year ``` 0 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` 10,000 @@ -54731,7 +49707,7 @@ Solar heating Biomass Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.84** India: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.84 India: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios **Table 8.78** India: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) @@ -54757,57 +49733,38 @@ Total 5.0 °C 5572 5711 5781 5796 5653 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 351 ``` in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1600 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of - electricity for heating will also increase by a factor of about 21 between 2015 and - 2050, and the electricity for heating will have a final energy share of 36% in 2050 in - both alternative scenarios. **8.12.1.6 India: Future Investments in the Heating Sector** The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 - amount to around $930 billion in the 2.0  °C Scenario (including investments for - replacement after the economic lifetimes of the plants), or approximately $26 billion - per year. The largest share of investment in India is assumed to be for solar collectors - (around $490 billion), followed by heat pumps and biomass technologies. The 1.5 °C - Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technologies and results in a - higher average annual investment of around $29 billion per year (Table 8.79, Fig. 8.85). **8.12.1.7 India: Transport** The energy demand in the transport sector in India is expected to increase in the - 5.0 °C Scenario by 377%, from around 3600 PJ/year in 2015 to 17,200 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes - will save 66% (11,280 PJ/year) by 2050 compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario. Additional - modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport demand will lead - to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 81% (or 13,930 PJ/year) in - 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.80, Fig. 8.86). - -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 10% (160 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 58% **Table 8.79** India: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 2049 1923 1836 1633 1432 2.0 °C 2049 1954 1798 1311 856 @@ -54824,36 +49781,25 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0 Totala 5.0 °C 2055 1940 1861 1676 1499 2.0 °C 2055 2094 2177 2052 1802 1.5 °C 2055 2122 2300 2039 1715 -a Excluding direct electric heating - -8 Energy Scenario Results +aExcluding direct electric heating +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 352 (950 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 860 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans- - port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual - electricity demand will be 560 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a - hydrogen demand of 590 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0 °C Scenario to a maximum of around 1000 PJ/year. -``` Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be introduced, - with a maximum amount of 610 PJ/year in 2050. Due to the lower overall energy - demand in transport, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maximum - of 510 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 310 PJ/year. -**8.12.1.8 India: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, India’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by 236%, from +**8.12.1.8 India: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, India’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 236%, from 2060 Mt. in 2015 to 6950 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 930 Mt. in 2040 in the @@ -54937,39 +49883,30 @@ pumps ``` total 1,040 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.85** India: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the +## Fig. 8.85 India: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the + scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 353 ``` -almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 - +almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 169 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the - cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 55 Gt and 38 Gt, - respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 67% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 67% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 78% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in the annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the **Table 8.80** India: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios - -``` in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Rail 5.0 °C 180 238 278 353 423 2.0 °C 180 270 325 421 526 1.5 °C 180 219 234 332 446 -Road 5.0 °C 3294 5861 7880 12,152 16,455 +Road 5.0 °C [^3294]: [^5861]: [^7880]: 12,152 16,455 2.0 °C 3294 5017 5562 5301 5285 1.5 °C 3294 4253 3125 2977 2730 Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 84 131 166 216 231 @@ -54978,10 +49915,10 @@ Domestic aviation 5.0 °C 84 131 166 216 231 Domestic navigation 5.0 °C 29 34 36 40 52 2.0 °C 29 34 36 40 52 1.5 °C 29 34 36 40 52 -Total 5.0 °C 3587 6263 8360 12,762 17,161 +Total 5.0 °C [^3587]: [^6263]: [^8360]: 12,762 17,161 2.0 °C 3587 5410 6006 5828 5914 1.5 °C 3587 4590 3470 3401 3268 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -55016,7 +49953,7 @@ Total 5.0 °C 3587 6263 8360 12,762 17,161 20,000 ``` ``` -5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C +5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 5.0°C2.0°C1.5°C 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 ``` ``` @@ -55026,6 +49963,8 @@ PJ/yr Efficiency (compared to 5.0°C) +``` +``` Hydrogen ``` ``` @@ -55043,10 +49982,9 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.86** India: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.86 India: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 354 @@ -55072,9 +50010,8 @@ will be even lower (47,100 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conve sion losses will be lower. -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` + will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 40% in 2030 and 94% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a @@ -55157,7 +50094,7 @@ cumulated emissions [Gt] CO ``` ``` -emissions [Mt/yr] 2 +emissions [Mt/yr]2 ``` ``` 'Power generation' 'Other Conversion' @@ -55166,13 +50103,13 @@ emissions [Mt/yr] 2 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.87** India: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after +## Fig. 8.87 India: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions (after + 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 355 ``` @@ -55184,7 +50121,7 @@ fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 130 EJ for natural ga EJ for coal, and 150 EJ for oil. -**_8.12.2 India: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.12.2 India: Power Sector Analysis** The electricity market in India is in dynamic development. The government of India @@ -55192,13 +50129,13 @@ is making great efforts to increase the reliability of the power supply and at t time, it is developing universal access to electric power. In 2017, about 300 million -Indians (RF 2018 ) had no power or inadequate power. In 2017, the Indian +Indians (RF [^2018]:) had no power or inadequate power. In 2017, the Indian -Government launched _The Third National Electricity Plan_ , which covers two 5-year +Government launched _The Third National Electricity Plan_, which covers two 5-year periods: 2017–2022 and 2022–2027. According to the International Energy Agency -(IEA) Policies and Measures Database (IEA P + M DB 2018 ): +(IEA) Policies and Measures Database (IEA P + M DB [^2018]:): ``` [...] “the plan covers short- and long-term demand forecasts in different regions and recom- @@ -55223,10 +50160,10 @@ coal will be added – except for the coal power plants under construction [... 80,000 ``` ``` -100,00 0 +100,000 ``` ``` -120,00 0 +120,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -55309,11 +50246,11 @@ Crude oil Coal Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.88** India: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the sce- +### Fig. 8.88 India: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the sce- + narios (including electricity import balance) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 356 @@ -55357,13 +50294,13 @@ of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C -Hard coal 7 − 7 − 6 − 7 − 15 − 6 -Lignite 0 − 1 − 1 − 2 − 2 − 1 -Gas 9 13 7 7 − 14 17 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal 7 −7 −6 −7 −15 −6 +Lignite 0 −1 −1 −2 −2 −1 +Gas 9 13 7 7 −14 17 Hydrogen-Gas 0 0 1 1 32 32 -Oil/Diesel 0 − 1 − 1 − 1 0 0 -Nuclear 1 0 0 0 − 1 − 1 +Oil/Diesel 0 −1 −1 −1 0 0 +Nuclear 1 0 0 0 −1 −1 Biomass 2 2 2 2 4 4 Hydro 3 2 1 1 1 1 Wind (onshore) 20 55 54 59 44 21 @@ -55378,7 +50315,6 @@ Renewable fuel based co-generation 0 1 2 2 3 3 ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 357 ``` @@ -55396,9 +50332,8 @@ will reach 40% in most regions, whereas dispatchable renewables will supply abou one quarter of the demand by 2030 (Table 8.82). -``` India’s average capacity factors for the entire power plant fleet remain at around -``` + 35% over the entire modelling period, as the calculation results in Table 8.83 show. Contributions from limited dispatchable fossil and nuclear power plants will remain @@ -55442,8 +50377,7 @@ very low due to a relatively moderate increase in the gas and hydrogen capacitie India. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 358 @@ -55455,7 +50389,7 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -India 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +India 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` @@ -55469,7 +50403,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]67.7% 57% 61% 48% 38% 37% 27% 37% 12% +[%/yr] 67.7% 57% 61% 48% 38% 37% 27% 37% 12% ``` ``` Limited @@ -55477,21 +50411,21 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]17.1% 24% 26% 38% 34% 58% 39% 44% 42% +[%/yr] 17.1% 24% 26% 38% 34% 58% 39% 44% 42% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]44.7% 12% 19% 11% 12% 30% 29% 24% 29% +[%/yr] 44.7% 12% 19% 11% 12% 30% 29% 24% 29% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]39.8% 60% 68% 57% 45% 40% 52% 65% 57% +[%/yr] 39.8% 60% 68% 57% 45% 40% 52% 65% 57% ``` ``` Variable: @@ -55501,13 +50435,11 @@ renewable [%/yr] 9.0% 8% 8% 19% 20% 27% 25% 29% 28% ``` **Table 8.82** India: power system shares by technology group - -``` Power generation structure and interconnection -``` + ``` 2.0 °C 1.5 °C ``` @@ -55584,7 +50516,6 @@ India 2015 4% 32% 64% ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 359 ``` @@ -55730,8 +50661,7 @@ India-Northern Region 0 ``` ``` -India-North- -Eastern Region +India-North-Eastern Region ``` ``` 2020 @@ -56042,8 +50972,7 @@ India-Southern Region ``` 122 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 360 @@ -56078,8 +51007,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -56094,8 +51022,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -56128,8 +51055,7 @@ based [GWh/year] ``` ``` -India- -Northern Region +India-Northern Region ``` ``` 2020 @@ -56231,9 +51157,7 @@ Northern Region 8647 ``` ``` -India- -North- -Eastern Region +India-North-Eastern Region ``` ``` 2020 @@ -56335,8 +51259,7 @@ Eastern Region 11 ``` ``` -India- -Eastern Region +India-Eastern Region ``` ``` 2020 @@ -56438,8 +51361,7 @@ Eastern Region 5715 ``` ``` -India- -Western Region +India-Western Region ``` ``` 2020 @@ -56541,8 +51463,7 @@ Western Region 2020 ``` ``` -India- -Southern Region +India-Southern Region ``` ``` 2020 @@ -56748,13 +51669,12 @@ India ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 361 ``` **8.13 China** -**_8.13.1 China: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.13.1 China: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.13.1.1 China: Final Energy Demand by Sector** @@ -56844,10 +51764,9 @@ Industry fuelsIndustry electricity Residential & other sectors fuelsResidential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.89** China: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.89 China: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 362 @@ -56855,9 +51774,8 @@ by 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (9480 TWh/year in 2050), the efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios save around 4250 TWh/year by 2050. -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` + 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approxi- mately 2800 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps and in the transport @@ -56927,13 +51845,10 @@ by 2030, and 51% and 52%, respectively, by 2050. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 363 ``` **Table 8.86** China: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 320 395 424 477 525 2.0 °C 320 383 396 420 450 @@ -56959,7 +51874,7 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 0 0 1 1 Total 5.0 °C 505 1029 1196 1490 1819 2.0 °C 505 1390 2175 4015 5421 1.5 °C 505 1592 2555 4322 5307 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -57010,49 +51925,30 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.90** China: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.90 China: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 364 **8.13.1.3 China: Future Costs of Electricity Generation** Figure 8.91 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs - -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- - +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec- tricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.7 ct/kWh. In - the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach 9.2 - ct/kWh, and then drop to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs will increase in - the alternative scenarios until 2030, when they reach around 8 ct/kWh, and will then - drop to 6.5 ct/kWh by 2050, 2.3 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario. Note that - these estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as - power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $310 billion/year to more - than $1230 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C case, the total supply costs will be - $1030 billion/year and $1010 billion/year in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Therefore, the - long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 16% lower in the alternative - scenarios than in the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0 °C case to 5.7 ct/kWh in 2030 and stabi- lize at 5.5 ct/kWh in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, they increase continuously until @@ -57132,13 +52028,13 @@ billion $ ct/kWh Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.91** China: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-generation +## Fig. 8.91 China: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-generation + costs in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 365 ``` @@ -57146,8 +52042,7 @@ occur in 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario, the mum difference in generation costs will be 1.6 ct/kWh in 2040. The generation costs -in 2050 will be 1.1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case. If the CO 2 costs are not - +in 2050 will be 1.1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0  °C case will rise to about $810 billion/year in 2050. @@ -57155,74 +52050,41 @@ $810 billion/year in 2050. **8.13.1.4 China: Future Investments in the Power Sector** An investment of around $9740 billion will be required for power generation - between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants - for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments for plant replace- - ment at the end of their economic lifetimes. This value will be equivalent to approx- - imately $271 billion per year on average and will be $5680 billion more than in the - 5.0 °C case ($4060 billion). An investment of around $9840 billion for power gen- - eration will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, - this will be an investment of $273 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the invest- - ment in conventional power plants will be around 29% of the total cumulative - investments, whereas approximately 71% will be invested in renewable power gen- - eration and co-generation (Fig. 8.92). - -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, China will shift almost 97% (98%) of -``` its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share - of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants that - can also be operated with hydrogen. - -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` fuel cost savings in both alternative scenarios will reach a total of more than $6200 - billion in 2050, equivalent to $173 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost - savings will be equivalent to 110% of the total additional investments compared to - the 5.0 °C Scenario. **8.13.1.5 China: Energy Supply for Heating** The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 38% - from 42,300 PJ/year in 2015 to 58,200 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures - will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 42% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C - Scenario, relative to the 5.0  °C case, and by 47% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Today, - renewables supply around 11% of China’s final energy demand for heating, with the - main contribution from biomass. Renewable energy will provide 32% of China’s - total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 46% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In - both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total heat demand in 2050. - -``` Figure 8.93 shows the development of different technologies for heating in China -``` over time, and Table 8.87 provides the resulting renewable heat supply for all sce- - narios. Up to 2030, biomass will remain the main contributor. In the long term, the -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 366 @@ -57230,9 +52092,8 @@ growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead to a biomass share of 24% in both alternative scenarios. -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` + in both scenarios. Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 4100 PJ/year in ``` @@ -57241,7 +52102,7 @@ Fossil ``` ``` Nuclear -10 % +10% ``` ``` CHP @@ -57251,9 +52112,8 @@ CHP Renewable 63% ``` -``` 5.0°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 4,065 billion $ @@ -57261,18 +52121,17 @@ billion $ ``` Fossil (incl.H2) -3%Nuclear +3% Nuclear 1% CHP -14 % +14% ``` ``` Renewable 82% ``` -``` 2.0°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 9,740 billion $ @@ -57289,16 +52148,15 @@ CHP ``` ``` Renewable -83 % -``` +83% ``` 1.5°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` total 9,850 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.92** China: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.92 China: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios ``` 0 @@ -57347,12 +52205,11 @@ Biomass ``` Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.93** China: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.93 China: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 367 ``` @@ -57415,59 +52272,37 @@ Total 5.0 °C 3974 3844 4120 4996 6438 2.0 °C 3974 7978 11,237 19,417 24,727 1.5 °C 3974 9011 12,396 18,031 22,237 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 368 Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in transport demand - will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 76% (or 19,900 PJ/ - year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.89, Fig. 8.95). - -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 21% (680 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 51% - (1170 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 1600 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans- - port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual - electricity demand is 860 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a hydro- - gen demand of 1100 PJ/year by 2050. - -``` Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 1900 PJ/year. -``` Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro- - duced, with a maximum amount of 560 PJ/year in 2050. Due to the lower overall - energy demand in transport, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a - maximum of around 1400 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will - amount to 720 PJ/year. -**8.13.1.8 China: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0 °C Scenario, China’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by 25%, from +**8.13.1.8 China: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0 °C Scenario, China’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will increase by 25%, from 9060 Mt. in 2015 to 11,320 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall to 1990 Mt. in 2040 in the - 2.0 °C Scenario and to 760 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further reductions to - -almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 - +almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 392 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the **Table 8.88** China: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 1194 764 648 519 468 2.0 °C 1194 1284 1214 921 578 @@ -57484,12 +52319,11 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 52 76 89 126 174 Totala 5.0 °C 1527 1250 1214 1263 1441 2.0 °C 1527 2048 2355 3103 2954 1.5 °C 1527 2111 2491 2549 2361 -a Excluding direct electric heating +aExcluding direct electric heating ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 369 ``` @@ -57497,25 +52331,17 @@ cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 174 Gt and 132 Gt, respectively. -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 56% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 56% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 66% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario the reduction will be greatest in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, fol- - lowed by ‘Power generation’ and ‘Transport’ sectors (Fig. 8.96). **8.13.1.9 China: Primary Energy Consumption** The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump- - tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. 8.97. In the 2.0 °C - Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 30%, from around 125,000 - PJ/year in 2015 to 87,800 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the ``` @@ -57531,12 +52357,12 @@ heat use ``` solar collectors -24 % +24% ``` ``` heat pumps -51 % +51% ``` ``` 5.0°C: 2015-2050 @@ -57557,7 +52383,7 @@ heat use ``` solar collectors -34 % +34% ``` ``` heat @@ -57582,12 +52408,12 @@ heat use ``` solar collectors -40 % +40% ``` ``` heat pumps -39 % +39% ``` ``` 1.5°C: 2015-2050 @@ -57595,11 +52421,11 @@ pumps ``` total 2,400 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.94** China: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the +## Fig. 8.94 China: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the + scenarios -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 370 @@ -57611,9 +52437,8 @@ will be even lower (80,700 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conve sion losses will be lower. -``` Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This -``` + will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 28% in 2030 and 92% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a @@ -57681,12 +52506,11 @@ Biofuels Natural Gas Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.95** China: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.95 China: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 371 ``` @@ -57752,7 +52576,7 @@ cumulated emissions [Gt] CO ``` ``` -emissions [Mt/yr] 2 +emissions [Mt/yr]2 ``` ``` 'Power generation' 'Other Conversion' @@ -57761,7 +52585,8 @@ emissions [Mt/yr] 2 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.96** China: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after +## Fig. 8.96 China: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emissions (after + 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` @@ -57780,22 +52605,22 @@ emissions [Mt/yr] 2 80,000 ``` ``` -100,00 0 +100,000 ``` ``` -120,00 0 +120,000 ``` ``` -140,00 0 +140,000 ``` ``` -160,00 0 +160,000 ``` ``` -180,00 0 +180,000 ``` ``` -200,00 0 +200,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -57878,11 +52703,11 @@ Coal ``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.97** China: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the sce- +## Fig. 8.97 China: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the sce- + narios (including electricity import balance) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 372 @@ -57902,7 +52727,7 @@ demand to 430 EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C S 440 EJ for natural gas, 930 EJ for coal, and 340 EJ for oil. -**_8.13.2 China: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.13.2 China: Power Sector Analysis** China has by far the largest power sector of all world regions—about one quarter of @@ -57910,7 +52735,7 @@ the world’s total electricity generation. China’s National Energy Administra (NEA) released the _13th Energy Five-Year Plan (FYP)_ in January 2016 (IEA RED -2016 ). The FYP that is in force from 2016 to 2020 introduces framework legislation +[^2016]:). The FYP that is in force from 2016 to 2020 introduces framework legislation that defines energy development for the next 5 years in China. In parallel to the main @@ -57918,7 +52743,7 @@ Energy FYP, there are 14 additional supporting FYPs, such as the Renewable Energy 13th FYP, the Wind FYP, and the Electricity FYP, which were all released -at about the same time (GWEC-NL 2018 ). According to the Renewable Energy 13th +at about the same time (GWEC-NL [^2018]:). According to the Renewable Energy 13th FYP, by 2020, the total RE electricity installations will reach 680 GW, with electric- @@ -57928,7 +52753,7 @@ tion. The wind power target is set to reach 210 GW by 2020, with electricity production of 420 TWh, supplying 6% of China’s total electricity demand. The -target for offshore wind is 5 GW by 2020 (GWEC-NL 2018 ). For other renewable +target for offshore wind is 5 GW by 2020 (GWEC-NL [^2018]:). For other renewable power-generation technologies, the 2020 targets are 150 GW for solar PV, 10 GW @@ -57965,7 +52790,6 @@ rent solar PV market in China must remain at the 2017 level, and to achieve the ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 373 ``` @@ -58002,7 +52826,7 @@ power plants will remain at around 30% until 2030 under the 2.0 °C Scenario. T relatively low factor indicates an overcapacity in China’s power market. The curtail- -ment rates of 20% (REW 1- 2018 ) and more in 2017—mainly for wind farms—con- +ment rates of 20% (REW 1-[^2018]:) and more in 2017—mainly for wind farms—con- firm this. @@ -58014,13 +52838,13 @@ of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal 5 − 51 − 55 − 81 − 41 − 5 +2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal 5 −51 −55 −81 −41 −5 Lignite 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Gas 4 28 6 30 − 16 − 17 +Gas 4 28 6 30 −16 −17 Hydrogen-Gas 0 0 1 3 24 38 -Oil/Diesel 0 − 1 0 − 1 0 0 -Nuclear 3 0 − 2 0 − 3 − 4 +Oil/Diesel 0 −1 0 −1 0 0 +Nuclear 3 0 −2 0 −3 −4 Biomass 6 10 9 8 5 5 Hydro 8 5 3 3 3 3 Wind (onshore) 31 65 46 64 36 29 @@ -58032,8 +52856,7 @@ Solar thermal power plants 1 13 34 29 40 30 Ocean energy 0 1 2 2 5 4 Renewable fuel based co-generation 4 9 10 9 8 8 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 374 @@ -58065,8 +52888,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch Fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -58078,8 +52900,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` China-North @@ -58516,7 +53337,6 @@ China-East ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 375 ``` @@ -58721,8 +53541,7 @@ China ``` 9% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 376 @@ -58767,7 +53586,7 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -China 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +China 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` @@ -58781,7 +53600,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]39.2% 34% 29% 32% 25% 20% 17% 9% 16% +[%/yr] 39.2% 34% 29% 32% 25% 20% 17% 9% 16% ``` ``` Limited @@ -58789,33 +53608,32 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]47.3% 20% 17% 21% 14% 68% 19% 47% 27% +[%/yr] 47.3% 20% 17% 21% 14% 68% 19% 47% 27% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]30.7% 28% 40% 46% 34% 24% 37% 11% 37% +[%/yr] 30.7% 28% 40% 46% 34% 24% 37% 11% 37% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]59.1% 27% 31% 28% 23% 47% 34% 62% 39% +[%/yr] 59.1% 27% 31% 28% 23% 47% 34% 62% 39% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]17.9% 15% 15% 17% 16% 22% 17% 22% 17% +[%/yr] 17.9% 15% 15% 17% 16% 22% 17% 22% 17% ``` ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 377 ``` @@ -58959,6 +53777,8 @@ China-North ``` ``` − +``` +``` 133.4 ``` ``` @@ -59038,6 +53858,8 @@ China-Northwest ``` ``` − +``` +``` 48.1 ``` ``` @@ -59117,6 +53939,8 @@ China-Northeast ``` ``` − +``` +``` 22.8 ``` ``` @@ -59368,8 +54192,7 @@ China-East ``` (continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 378 @@ -59513,6 +54336,8 @@ China-South ``` ``` − +``` +``` 49.1 ``` ``` @@ -59583,6 +54408,8 @@ Taiwan ``` ``` − +``` +``` 4.0 ``` ``` @@ -59591,7 +54418,6 @@ Taiwan ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 379 ``` @@ -59626,8 +54452,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -59642,8 +54467,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -59676,8 +54500,7 @@ based [GWh/year] ``` ``` -China- -North +China-North ``` ``` 2020 @@ -59779,8 +54602,7 @@ North 17,528 ``` ``` -China- -Northwest +China-Northwest ``` ``` 2020 @@ -59882,8 +54704,7 @@ Northwest 10,080 ``` ``` -China- -Northeast +China-Northeast ``` ``` 2020 @@ -59985,8 +54806,7 @@ Northeast 10,012 ``` ``` -China- -Tibet +China-Tibet ``` ``` 2020 @@ -60088,8 +54908,7 @@ Tibet 230 ``` ``` -China- -Central Baltic +China-Central Baltic ``` ``` 2020 @@ -60292,8 +55111,7 @@ China-East ``` 18,866(continued) ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 380 @@ -60328,8 +55146,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -60344,8 +55161,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -60378,8 +55194,7 @@ based [GWh/year] ``` ``` -China- -South +China-South ``` ``` 2020 @@ -60687,47 +55502,31 @@ China ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 381 ``` **8.14 OECD Pacific** -**_8.14.1 OECD Pacific: Long-Term Energy Pathways_** +**8.14.1 OECD Pacific: Long-Term Energy Pathways** **8.14.1.1 OECD Pacific: Final Energy demand by Sector** The future development pathways for OECD Pacific’s final energy demand when - the assumptions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are com- - bined are shown in Fig. 8.98 for the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and 1.5  °C Scenarios. In the - 5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will decrease by 2%, from the current - 20,100 PJ/year to 19,600 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final energy - demand will decrease by 46% compared with current consumption and will reach - 10,800 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario will reach - 10,200 PJ, 49% below the 2015 demand. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the final energy - demand in 2050 will be 6% lower than in the 2.0  °C Scenario. The electricity - demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-to-heat or e-mobility) will - decrease from 1520 TWh/year in 2015 to 1150 TWh/year in 2050 in both alternative - scenarios. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (1890 TWh/year in 2050), the efficiency - measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will save 740 TWh/year in 2050. - -``` Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by -``` -2050. The 2.0 °C Scenario has an electricity demand for heating of approximately +2050. The 2.0 °C Scenario has an electricity demand for heating of approximately 400 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector, ``` @@ -60737,40 +55536,40 @@ Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -3,50 0 +3,500 ``` ``` 0 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -15,00 0 +15,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -25,00 0 +25,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -60829,10 +55628,9 @@ Industry fuelsIndustry electricity Residential & other sectors fuelsResidential & other sectors electricity total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2) ``` -**Fig. 8.98** OECD Pacific: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.98 OECD Pacific: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 382 @@ -60902,31 +55700,23 @@ proportion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 40% and 47% by Figure 8.100 shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs -over time, including the CO 2 emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated - -electricity- generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 8 ct/kWh. +over time, including the CO[^2]: emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated +electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 8 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach - 11.1 ct/kWh, and then drop to 10.9 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs will - increase in the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030, when they reach 10.5 ct/kWh, and then - drop to 8.3 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 10.7 ct/ - kWh, and then drop to 8.5 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 383 ``` **Table 8.95** OECD Pacific: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios - -``` in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Hydro 5.0 °C 69 73 76 78 78 2.0 °C 69 76 78 82 84 @@ -60952,7 +55742,7 @@ Ocean 5.0 °C 0 1 1 2 4 Total 5.0 °C 132 197 221 246 275 2.0 °C 132 409 681 1176 1416 1.5 °C 132 444 774 1345 1594 -``` + ``` 0 ``` @@ -60960,25 +55750,25 @@ Total 5.0 °C 132 197 221 246 275 500 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -1,50 0 +1,500 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -2,50 0 +2,500 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -3,50 0 +3,500 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -61047,43 +55837,26 @@ Gas Lignite Coal ``` -**Fig. 8.99** OECD Pacific: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.99 OECD Pacific: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 384 costs in 2050 will be 2.6 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case, and in the 1.5 °C - Scenario, this difference will 2.4 ct/kWh. Note that these estimates of generation - costs do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, stor- - age, or other load-balancing measures. - -``` In the 5.0 ° C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will -``` cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $160 billion/year to more - than $270 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs will be - $270 billion/year, and in the 1.5  °C Scenario, they will be $310 billion/year. The - long-term costs for electricity supply will be only 2% higher in the 2.0 °C Scenario - than in the 5.0  °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the - electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and synthetic fuel gen- - eration in the 1.5  °C Scenario will result in total power generation costs that are - 17% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. - -``` -Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO 2 emission costs -``` +Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO[^2]: emission costs are not considered will increase in the 5.0 °C case to 8.3 ct/kWh in 2050. The gen- eration costs in the 2.0 °C Scenario will increase until 2030, when they will reach @@ -61098,8 +55871,7 @@ and this will occur in 2040. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, compared with the 5.0  Scenario, the maximum difference in the generation costs will be 1.4 ct/kWh, again -in 2040. If the CO 2 costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the - +in 2040. If the CO[^2]: costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $200 billion/year in 2050. ``` @@ -61159,16 +55931,18 @@ billion $ ct/kWh ``` 2.0°C efficiency measures 2.0°C 1.5°C efficiency measures 1.5°C +``` +``` Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C 5.0°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C ``` -**Fig. 8.100** OECD Pacific: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- +## Fig. 8.100 OECD Pacific: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity- + generation costs in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 385 ``` @@ -61196,18 +55970,16 @@ investments, whereas approximately 44% will be invested in renewable power gen- eration and co-generation (Fig. 8.101). -``` However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, OECD Pacific will shift almost 93% -``` + (95%) of its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share of the power sector investment will predominantly focused on gas power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen. -``` Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative -``` + fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $1420 billion in 2050, equivalent to $39 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be @@ -61249,9 +56021,8 @@ CHP Renewable 83% ``` -``` 2.0°C: 2015-2050 -``` + ``` 5.0°C: 2015-2050 ``` @@ -61281,10 +56052,9 @@ Renewable total 3,100 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.101** OECD Pacific: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios - -8 Energy Scenario Results +## Fig. 8.101 OECD Pacific: investment shares for power generation in the scenarios +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 386 @@ -61317,9 +56087,8 @@ growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead, in the long to a biomass share of 37% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and of 35% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels -``` + in both scenarios. The hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 700 PJ/year in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 800 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of elec- @@ -61387,14 +56156,15 @@ Geothermal heat and heat pumps Solar heating Biomass +``` +``` Fossil ``` -**Fig. 8.102** OECD Pacific: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.102 OECD Pacific: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 387 ``` @@ -61428,7 +56198,6 @@ Total 5.0 °C 390 580 629 769 988 1.5 °C 390 1107 1946 3473 4124 ``` **Table 8.97** OECD Pacific: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios - in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050 Biomass 5.0 °C 44 60 63 69 75 2.0 °C 44 77 92 117 94 @@ -61445,10 +56214,9 @@ Heat pumps 5.0 °C 5 5 5 5 6 Totala 5.0 °C 62 87 95 117 150 2.0 °C 62 156 250 397 426 1.5 °C 62 171 287 413 401 -a Excluding direct electric heating - -8 Energy Scenario Results +aExcluding direct electric heating +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 388 @@ -61468,9 +56236,8 @@ demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 59% ( 2300 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table 8.98, Fig. 8.104). -``` By 2030, electricity will provide 20% (200 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s -``` + total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 53% (300 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 480 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans- @@ -61569,13 +56336,13 @@ pumps ``` total 545 billion $ ``` -**Fig. 8.103** OECD Pacific: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technolo- +## Fig. 8.103 OECD Pacific: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technolo- + gies in the scenarios ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 389 ``` @@ -61583,25 +56350,25 @@ S. Teske et al. 0 ``` ``` -1,00 0 +1,000 ``` ``` -2,00 0 +2,000 ``` ``` -3,00 0 +3,000 ``` ``` -4,00 0 +4,000 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` -6,00 0 +6,000 ``` ``` -7,00 0 +7,000 ``` ``` 5.0°C2.0° @@ -61670,7 +56437,7 @@ Natural Gas ``` Oil products ``` -**Fig. 8.104** OECD Pacific: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios +## Fig. 8.104 OECD Pacific: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios **Table 8.98** OECD Pacific: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios @@ -61692,38 +56459,24 @@ Total 5.0 °C 6176 5182 4908 4576 3890 2.0 °C 6176 4631 3624 2419 2002 1.5 °C 6176 3533 2551 1893 1586 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 390 -**8.14.1.8 OECD Pacific: Development of CO 2 Emissions** - -In the 5.0  °C Scenario, OECD Pacific’s annual CO 2 emissions will decrease by +**8.14.1.8 OECD Pacific: Development of CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +In the 5.0  °C Scenario, OECD Pacific’s annual CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 21%, from 2080 Mt in 2015 to 1640 Mt in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures - in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 280  Mt in - 2040  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 160 Mt. in the 1.5  °C Scenario, with further - -reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions - +reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 67  Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C - Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be - 31 Gt and 26 Gt, respectively. - -``` -Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 54% in the 2.0  °C -``` +Therefore, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions will decrease by 54% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 61% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid - reduction in the annual emissions will occur under both alternative scenarios. In the - 2.0 °C Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by - ‘Transport’ and ‘Industry’ (Fig. 8.105). ``` @@ -61782,8 +56535,7 @@ cumulated emissions [Gt] CO ``` ``` -2 -emissions [Mt/yr] +emissions [Mt/yr]2 ``` ``` 'Power generation' 'Other Conversion' @@ -61792,13 +56544,13 @@ emissions [Mt/yr] 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C ``` -**Fig. 8.105** OECD Pacific: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emis- +## Fig. 8.105 OECD Pacific: development of CO2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO2 emis- + sions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 391 ``` @@ -61820,9 +56572,8 @@ be even lower (19,900 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion losses will be lower. -``` Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario aim to rapidly phase-out coal and -``` + oil. This will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 33% in 2030 and 88% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, renewables will @@ -61845,7 +56596,7 @@ lative coal demand to 100 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 230 EJ. Even l 0 ``` ``` -5,00 0 +5,000 ``` ``` 10,000 @@ -61949,84 +56700,56 @@ Coal ``` Nuclear ``` -**Fig. 8.106** OECD Pacific: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in +## Fig. 8.106 OECD Pacific: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in + the scenarios (including electricity import balance) -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 392 fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 150 EJ for natural gas, 70 EJ - for coal, and 190 EJ for oil. -**_8.14.2 OECD Pacific: Power Sector Analysis_** +**8.14.2 OECD Pacific: Power Sector Analysis** South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand form the OECD Pacific region - (also referred to as OECD Asia Pacific or OECD Asia Oceania). Like Non-OECD - Asia, a regional interconnected power market with regular electricity exchange is - unlikely. Therefore, the region is broken down into seven sub-regions: (1) South - Korea; (2) the north of Japan; (3) the south of Japan; (4) Australia’s National - Electricity Market (NEM) (covering the entire east coast); (5) the SWIS-NT grid - region (comprising Western Australia and the Northern Territory); (6) the North - Island of New Zealand; and (7) the South Island of New Zealand. The sub-regions - have very different electricity policies, power-generation structures, and demand - patterns. In this analysis, simplifications that may not reflect the local conditions are - made to ensure that the results comparable on a global level. Therefore, the results - for specific countries are only estimates. **8.14.2.1 OECD Pacific: Development of Power Plant Capacities** The region has significant potential for all renewables, including the dominant - renewable power technologies of solar PV and onshore wind. Japan has significant - geothermal power resources, and offshore wind potentials are substantial across the - region. There is also potential for ocean energy across the region, although it is cur- - rently a niche technology. Australia has one of the best solar resources in the world, - so concentrated solar power plants will be an important part of both scenarios in - Australia. Coal and nuclear capacities will be phased-out as plants come to the end - of their lifetimes. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the last coal power plant will be phased out - just after 2030. - -``` The solar PV market will reach 8 GW in 2020 under the 2.0 °C Scenario—the -``` -same level as the actual regional market of 8.3 GW (REN21-GSR 2018 ) in 2017— - +same level as the actual regional market of 8.3 GW (REN21-GSR [^2018]:) in 2017— and increase rapidly to 43 GW by 2030. The 1.5 °C Scenario requires that solar PV - will achieve an equal market size by 2030 and remain at this level until 2040. - -``` However, the onshore market must increase significantly compared with the mar- -``` -ket in 2017, which was only 0.54 GW (GWEC-NL 2018 ). By 2025, 12  GW of + +ket in 2017, which was only 0.54 GW (GWEC-NL [^2018]:). By 2025, 12  GW of onshore wind capacity must be installed annually across the region under the 2.0 °C ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 393 ``` @@ -62069,13 +56792,13 @@ change of installed capacity [GW/a] ``` ``` 2015–2025 2026–2035 2036–2050 -2.0 °C 1.5C°2.0 °C 1.5 °C2.0 °C 1.5 °C -Hard coal − 4 − 9 − 5 − 4 − 1 0 -Lignite 0 − 1 − 2 − 2 0 0 -Gas 2 − 2 − 1 − 3 − 14 0 +2.0 °C 1.5C° 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C +Hard coal −4 −9 −5 −4 −1 0 +Lignite 0 −1 −2 −2 0 0 +Gas 2 −2 −1 −3 −14 0 Hydrogen-gas 0 1 1 5 12 12 -Oil/diesel − 3 − 2 − 2 − 2 − 1 − 1 -Nuclear 0 − 5 − 3 − 3 − 2 − 2 +Oil/diesel −3 −2 −2 −2 −1 −1 +Nuclear 0 −5 −3 −3 −2 −2 Biomass 2 1 1 1 1 1 Hydro 2 1 0 1 0 0 Wind (onshore) 7 18 12 17 7 6 @@ -62087,8 +56810,7 @@ Solar thermal power plants 1 2 3 4 2 3 Ocean energy 0 1 2 2 2 2 Renewable fuel based co-generation 1 1 1 2 1 1 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 394 @@ -62120,8 +56842,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch Fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` Variable RE @@ -62133,8 +56854,7 @@ Dispatch RE Dispatch Fossil ``` ``` -Inter- -connection +Inter-connection ``` ``` South Korea @@ -62499,7 +57219,6 @@ Australia West and North (SWIS + NT) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 395 ``` @@ -62704,43 +57423,38 @@ OECD Pacific ``` 14% ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 396 **8.14.2.3 OECD Pacific: Development of Load, Generation,** -``` -and Residual Load -``` +**and Residual Load** + Table 8.102 shows the development of the maximum load, generation, and resulting residual load in the Pacific region. To verify the calculation results, we compared the peak demands in Australia and Japan. -``` The peak load for Australia’s NEM was calculated to be 32.6 GW in 2020, which -``` + corresponds to the reported summer peak of 32.5 GW in the summer of 2017/2018 -(AER 2018 ). Japan’s peak demand was 152  GW in 2015 according to the Tokyo +(AER [^2018]:). Japan’s peak demand was 152  GW in 2015 according to the Tokyo -Electric Power Company (TEPCO - 2018 ) and TEPCO predicts that it will be +Electric Power Company (TEPCO -[^2018]:) and TEPCO predicts that it will be 136 GW in 2020, which is 11% lower. -``` In the long term, the Pacific region will be a renewable fuel producer for the -``` + export market. Therefore, the calculated increased interconnection capacities indi- cate overproduction, which will be used for international bunker fuels. -``` The storage and dispatch requirements for all sub-regions are shown in -``` + Table 8.103. The Pacific region has vast solar and wind resources and will therefore be one of the production hubs for synthetic fuels and hydrogen, which may be used @@ -62767,12 +57481,12 @@ variable and dispatchable power generation: 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 -OECD Pacific 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C 2.0 °C1.5 °C +OECD Pacific 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C 2.0 °C 1.5 °C Capacity factor – average ``` ``` -[%/yr]54.8% 55% 55% 29% 29% 29% 29% 34% 31% +[%/yr] 54.8% 55% 55% 29% 29% 29% 29% 34% 31% ``` ``` Limited @@ -62781,7 +57495,7 @@ fossil and nuclear ``` ``` -[%/yr]65.1% 54% 54% 26% 31% 19% 29% 25% 32% +[%/yr] 65.1% 54% 54% 26% 31% 19% 29% 25% 32% ``` ``` Limited @@ -62789,33 +57503,32 @@ dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]42.7% 63% 54% 29% 30% 54% 25% 27% 25% +[%/yr] 42.7% 63% 54% 29% 30% 54% 25% 27% 25% ``` ``` Dispatchable: fossil ``` ``` -[%/yr]48.6% 48% 50% 20% 23% 35% 21% 19% 26% +[%/yr] 48.6% 48% 50% 20% 23% 35% 21% 19% 26% ``` ``` Dispatchable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]43.1% 73% 73% 50% 52% 37% 46% 49% 46% +[%/yr] 43.1% 73% 73% 50% 52% 37% 46% 49% 46% ``` ``` Variable: renewable ``` ``` -[%/yr]23.2% 17% 17% 20% 20% 27% 27% 31% 28% +[%/yr] 23.2% 17% 17% 20% 20% 27% 27% 31% 28% ``` ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 397 ``` @@ -63422,8 +58135,7 @@ New Zealand – South Island ``` 3 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 398 @@ -63458,8 +58170,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total Storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch Hydrogen- -based +Dispatch Hydrogen-based ``` ``` Required to avoid curtailment @@ -63474,8 +58185,7 @@ Utilization PSH-through-put- Total storage demand (incl. H2) ``` ``` -Dispatch hydrogen- -based +Dispatch hydrogen-based ``` ``` [GWh/year] @@ -64020,7 +58730,6 @@ Australia West and North (SWIS + NT) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 399 ``` @@ -64330,8 +59039,7 @@ OECD Pacific ``` 59,243 ``` -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results 400 @@ -64386,12 +59094,11 @@ FzdXJlcy8iPlBvbGljaWVzIGFuZCBNZWFzdXJlczwvYT4gJnJhcXVvOyA8YSBocmVmP- SIvcG9saWNpZXNhbmRtZWFzdXJlcy9jbGltYXRlY2hhbmdlLyI-Q2xpbWF0ZSBDaGFu- Z2U8L2E-PC9uYXY IRENA (2014), African Clean Energy Corridor  – internet page viewed September 2018, [http://](http://) -[http://www.irena.org/cleanenergycorridors/Africa-Clean-Energy-Corridor](http://www.irena.org/cleanenergycorridors/Africa-Clean-Energy-Corridor) +[www.irena.org/cleanenergycorridors/Africa-Clean-Energy-Corridor](www.irena.org/cleanenergycorridors/Africa-Clean-Energy-Corridor) ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 401 ``` @@ -64425,7 +59132,7 @@ partners plan Leningrad wind farm, 27th March 2018, https://www.windpowermonthly article/1460599/russian-partners-plan-leningrad-wind-farm **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -64435,14 +59142,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -8 Energy Scenario Results - +[^8]: Energy Scenario Results © The Author(s) 2019 403 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_9 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 9 +**Chapter 9** #### Trajectories for a Just Transition @@ -64500,10 +59205,9 @@ S. Teske (*) Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au - 404 -(GEA 2012 ), an integrated assessment of the global energy system, has published a +(GEA [^2012]:), an integrated assessment of the global energy system, has published a comprehensive overview of estimated available fossil fuel reserves and resources. @@ -64515,9 +59219,8 @@ the current technology (exploration and production) and market conditions. The resource data are not cumulative and do not include reserves (GEA 2012). -``` The assessment shows that there is no shortage of fossil fuels. There might be a -``` + shortage of conventional oil and gas, but unconventional resources are still signifi- cantly larger than our climate can cope with. Reducing global fossil fuel consump- @@ -64526,7 +59229,7 @@ tion for reasons of resource scarcity alone is not essential, even though there substantial price fluctuations and regional or structural shortages, as we have seen -in the past (Teske and Pregger 2015 ). +in the past (Teske and Pregger [^2015]:). **9.2 Coal—Past Production and Future Trajectories** @@ -64547,15 +59250,14 @@ and Kazakhstan. These countries account for 90% of the global coal production. ``` Figure 9.1 shows the historical time series for global coal production. The data ``` -are based on the BP Statistical Review 2018 (BP 2018 ), as are the following over- +are based on the BP Statistical Review 2018 (BP [^2018]:), as are the following over- views of oil and gas. Production volumes have declined in recent years, mainly due to changes in demand in China, but they rose again in 2017. -``` Under the 5.0  °C scenario, the required production of thermal coal (excluding -``` + coal for non-energy uses, such as steel production) will remain at the 2015 level, with an annual increase of around 1% per year until 2050. As shown in Fig. 9.2, @@ -64593,37 +59295,27 @@ Coal 17,300–21,000 291,000–435,000 16.5 ``` S. Teske ``` - ``` 405 ``` -``` 9,000 -``` -``` + 8,000 -``` -``` + 7,000 -``` -``` + 6,000 -``` -``` + 5,000 -``` -``` + 4,000 -``` -``` + 3,000 -``` -``` + 2,000 -``` -``` + 1,000 -``` + ``` 0 1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920192011201220132014201520162017 @@ -64657,8 +59349,7 @@ Global - 5.0C Global 2.0C Global 1.5C ``` **Fig. 9.2** Global coal production until 2050 under the three scenarios -9 Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry - +[^9]: Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry 406 @@ -64711,31 +59402,31 @@ Saudi Arabia, or Russia) by 2040. 0 ``` ``` -10,00 0 +10,000 ``` ``` -20,00 0 +20,000 ``` ``` -30,00 0 +30,000 ``` ``` -40,00 0 +40,000 ``` ``` -50,00 0 +50,000 ``` ``` -60,00 0 +60,000 ``` ``` -70,00 0 +70,000 ``` ``` -80,00 0 +80,000 ``` ``` -90,00 0 +90,000 ``` 100,000 @@ -64777,49 +59468,29 @@ Latin America ``` S. Teske ``` - ``` 407 ``` **9.4 Gas—Past Production and Future Trajectories** - **Under the Three Scenarios** Gas production has grown steadily over the past four decades, leading to an overall - production of 3500 billion cubic meters—3.5 times higher than in 1970. The pro- - duction of natural gas is even more widely distributed than oil production. According - to 2017 figures, by far the largest producers are the USA, with 20% of the global - volume, and Russia with 17%. Four countries have market share of around 5% each: - Canada (4.8%), Iran (6.1%), Qatar (4.8%), and China (4.1%). The remaining 43% - of global gas production is distributed over 42 countries (Fig. 9.5). - -``` In the 5.0 °C Scenario, gas production will increase steadily by 2% a year for the -``` next two decades, leading to an overall production increase of about 50% by 2050. - Compared with coal and oil, the gas phase-out will be significantly slower in the - 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. Furthermore, these scenarios assume that infrastruc- - ture, such as gas pipelines and power plants, will be used after this phase-out for - hydrogen and/or renewable methane produced with electricity from renewable - -sources (see Chap. 5, Sect 5.2). Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, gas production will only - +sources (see Chap. [^5]:, Sect 5.2). Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, gas production will only decrease by 0.2% per year until 2025, then by 1% until 2030, and on average by 4% - annually until 2040. This represents a rather slow phase-out and will allow the gas - industry to gradually transfer to hydrogen. The phase-out under the 1.5 °C Scenario - will be equally slow, and a 4%/year reduction will occur after 2025 (Fig. 9.6). ``` @@ -64849,8 +59520,7 @@ OIL Global 5.0C 5.0 C OIL Global 2.0C 2.0 C OIL Global 1.5C 1.5 C ``` **Fig. 9.4** Global oil production until 2050 under the three scenarios -9 Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry - +[^9]: Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry 408 @@ -64911,7 +59581,6 @@ Global 5.0C Global 2.0C Global 1.5C ``` S. Teske ``` - ``` 409 ``` @@ -64931,20 +59600,19 @@ countries, and for the communities and workers involved. The idea of a ‘just t tion’ is well documented in the international literature. According to the International -Labour Organization (ILO 2015 ), the concept was first mentioned in the 1990s, +Labour Organization (ILO [^2015]:), the concept was first mentioned in the 1990s, when North American unions began developing the concept of just transition. -``` Initially, trade unionists understood ‘just transition’ to be a program of support -``` + for workers who lost their jobs due to environmental protection policies. Since then, several UNFCCC Climate Conferences have referred to the ‘just transition’ con- cept. The Paris Climate Agreement 2015, during the 21st session of the Conference -of the Parties (COP 21) “ _decided to continue and improve the forum on the impact_ +of the Parties (COP 21) “_decided to continue and improve the forum on the impact_ _of the implementation of response measures (hereinafter referred to as the improved_ @@ -64952,7 +59620,7 @@ _forum), and adopted the work programme, comprising two areas: (1) economic_ _diversification and transformation; and (2) just transition of the workforce, and the_ -_creation of decent work and quality jobs_ ” (UNFCCC-JT 2016 ). +_creation of decent work and quality jobs_” (UNFCCC-JT [^2016]:). ``` Table 9.2 provides possible trajectories for global coal, oil, and gas production, @@ -64961,7 +59629,7 @@ consistent with the Paris Agreement targets. These trajectories are the results 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, documented in detail over the previous six chapters of -this book. Chapter 10 uses these trajectories to calculate possible employment +this book. Chapter [^10]: uses these trajectories to calculate possible employment effects, both in terms of job losses in the fossil fuel industry, job gains in the renew- @@ -64969,8 +59637,7 @@ able energy industry, and options for transitioning the gas industry towards a r ably produced hydrogen industry. -9 Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry - +[^9]: Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry 410 @@ -65083,7 +59750,6 @@ per day] ``` S. Teske ``` - ``` 411 ``` @@ -65094,9 +59760,9 @@ loaded in September 2018, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economic tical-review-of-world-energy/downloads.html GEA (2012): Global Energy Assessment  - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New  York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied -Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; [http://www.globalenergyassessment.org](http://www.globalenergyassessment.org) +Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; [www.globalenergyassessment.org](www.globalenergyassessment.org) ILO (2015), International Labour Organization, Just Transition  – A report for the OECD, May -2017, Just Transition Centre, [http://www.ituc-csi.org/just-transition-centre](http://www.ituc-csi.org/just-transition-centre) +2017, Just Transition Centre, [www.ituc-csi.org/just-transition-centre](www.ituc-csi.org/just-transition-centre) Teske, Pregger (2015), Teske, S, Pregger, T., Naegler, T., Simon, S., Energy [R]evolution  - A sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, Greenpeace International with the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, System Analysis and @@ -65107,7 +59773,7 @@ Quality Jobs – Technical paper, United Nations – Framework Convention on C (UNFCCC) 20 https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Just%20transition.pdf **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -65117,14 +59783,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -9 Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry - +[^9]: Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry © The Author(s) 2019 413 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_10 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 10 +**Chapter 10** #### Just Transition: Employment Projections @@ -65154,13 +59818,13 @@ also a socially and economically challenging process, and it is imperative that transition is managed in a fair and equitable way. One of the key concerns is the -employment of workers in the affected industries (UNFCCC 2016 ; ILO 2015 ). +employment of workers in the affected industries (UNFCCC [^2016]:; ILO [^2015]:). However, it should be noted that the ‘just transition’ concept is concerned not only with workers’ rights, but also with the well-being of the broader community (Smith -2017 ; Jenkins et al. 2016 ; Sovacool and Dworkin 2014 ). This includes, for example, +[^2017]:; Jenkins et al. [^2016]:; Sovacool and Dworkin [^2014]:). This includes, for example, community participation in decision-making processes, public dialogue, and policy @@ -65168,9 +59832,8 @@ mechanisms to create an enabling environment for new industries, to ensure local economic development. -``` Although it is acknowledged that a just transition is important, there are limited -``` + data on the impacts that the transition will have on employment. There is even less information on the types of occupations that will be affected by the transition, either @@ -65186,28 +59849,21 @@ Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, e-mail: elsa.dominish@uts.edu.au; chris.briggs@uts.edu.au; sven.teske@uts.edu.au; franziska.mey@uts.edu.au - 414 -scenario from the Leonardo Di Caprio project (see Chap. 3 ff. This study is funded - +scenario from the Leonardo Di Caprio project (see Chap. [^3]: ff. This study is funded by the German Greenpeace Foundation and builds on the methodology developed - -by UTS/ISF (Rutovitz et al. 2015 ), with an updated framework that disaggregates - +by UTS/ISF (Rutovitz et al. [^2015]:), with an updated framework that disaggregates jobs by specific occupations. Projected employment is calculated regionally, but in - this chapter, we present an overview of the global data, which are an aggregate of the - results for the 10 world regions. Further details, including a further regional break- - -down of employment data, are provided in the full report (Dominish et al. 2018 ). +down of employment data, are provided in the full report (Dominish et al. [^2018]:). **10.2 Quantitative Employment Modelling** This section discusses the calculation factors used for the quantitative employment -modelling (an overview of the methodology is given in Sect. 3.6 of Chap. 3). The +modelling (an overview of the methodology is given in Sect. 3.6 of Chap. [^3]:). The factors were analysed on a regional basis where possible, to take into account the @@ -65215,7 +59871,7 @@ significant economic differences between world regions. The results are then pre sented in the following section. -**_10.2.1 Employment Factors_** +**10.2.1 Employment Factors** Employment factors were used to calculate the number of jobs required per unit of @@ -65233,9 +59889,8 @@ adjustments were made when a local factor was not available (see Sect. 10.2.2). employment factors used in the calculations are shown in Table 10.1. -``` The employment factors were based on coal supplies, because employment per -``` + tonne varies significantly across the world regions and because coal plays a signifi- cant role in energy production in many countries. In Australia and the USA, coal is @@ -65267,7 +59922,6 @@ many major coal-producing countries as possible, and coverage was obtained for ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 415 ``` @@ -65317,15 +59971,11 @@ decommissioning Combined heat and power ``` -``` CHP technologies use the factor for the technology, i.e. coal, gas, biomass, geothermal, etc., increased by a factor of 1.5 for O&M only. -``` -Note: For details of sources and derivation of factors see Dominish et al. ( 2018 ) +Note: For details of sources and derivation of factors see Dominish et al. ([^2018]:) **Table 10.2** Employment factors used for coal fuel supply (mining and associated jobs) - -``` Employment factor Jobs per PJ Tonnes per person per year (coal equivalent) World average 36.2 943 @@ -65339,62 +59989,43 @@ Eastern Europe/Eurasia 36.0 948 Developing Asia 6.5 5273 Latin America 12.5 2725 Middle East Used world average because no employment data were available -``` -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 416 -**_10.2.2 Regional Adjustments_** +**10.2.2 Regional Adjustments** The employment factors used in this model for energy technologies other than coal - mining were usually for OECD regions, which are typically wealthier than other - regions. A regional multiplier was applied to make the jobs per MW more realistic - for other parts of the world. In developing countries, there are generally more jobs - per unit of electricity because those countries have more labour-intensive practices. - The multipliers change over the study period, consistent with the projections for - GDP per worker. This reflects the fact that as prosperity increases, labour intensity - tends to fall. The multipliers are shown in Table 10.3. **10.2.2.1 Local Employment Factors** Local employment factors were used where possible. These region-specific factors - were: -- _OECD Americas—_ gas and coal fuel, photovoltaics (PV) and offshore wind (all - -``` +• OECD Americas—gas and coal fuel, photovoltaics (PV) and offshore wind (all factors), and solar thermal power (construction and operation and maintenance (O&M) -``` -- _OECD Europe—_ gas and coal fuel, offshore wind (all factors), solar thermal - -``` +• OECD Europe—gas and coal fuel, offshore wind (all factors), solar thermal power (construction and O&M), and solar heating -``` -- _OECD Pacific—_ gas and coal fuel -- _Africa_ —gas, coal, and biomass fuel -- _China—_ gas and coal fuel, and solar heating -- _Eastern Europe/Eurasia—_ gas and coal fuel -- _Developing Asia_ —coal fuel -- _India_  – coal fuel and solar heating -- _Latin America—_ coal and biomass fuels, onshore wind (all factors), nuclear (con- - -``` +• OECD Pacific—gas and coal fuel +• Africa—gas, coal, and biomass fuel +• China—gas and coal fuel, and solar heating +• Eastern Europe/Eurasia—gas and coal fuel +• Developing Asia—coal fuel +• India – coal fuel and solar heating +• Latin America—coal and biomass fuels, onshore wind (all factors), nuclear (con- struction and O&M), large hydro (O&M), and small hydro (construction and O&M). -``` -**Table 10.3** Regional multipliers used for the quantitative calculation of employment -``` +**Table 10.3** Regional multipliers used for the quantitative calculation of employment 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD (North America, Europe, Pacific) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Latin America 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 @@ -65404,15 +60035,14 @@ Eastern Europe/Eurasia 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 India 7.0 5.6 3.7 2.7 2.0 Developing Asia 6.1 5.3 4.2 3.5 2.9 China 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 -``` -Source: Derived from ILO ( 2012 ) Key Indicators of the Labour Market, eighth edition software, + +Source: Derived from ILO ([^2012]:) Key Indicators of the Labour Market, eighth edition software, with growth in GDP per capita derived from IEA World Energy Outlook 2018 and World Bank data ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 417 ``` @@ -65444,9 +60074,9 @@ production processes are scaled up. Generally, jobs per MW are projected to fall parallel with this trend. The cost projections for each of the calculated energy sce- -nario regions (see Sect. 5.3 of Chap. 5) were used to derive these factors. +nario regions (see Sect. 5.3 of Chap. [^5]:) were used to derive these factors. -**_10.2.3 Results of Quantitative Employment Modelling_** +**10.2.3 Results of Quantitative Employment Modelling** The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will result in an increase in energy-sector jobs in @@ -65458,21 +60088,18 @@ than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. By 2050, employment in te energy sector will be w the same range in both scenarios, at around 48–50 million jobs. -- In 2025, there will be 29.6 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, +• In 2025, there will be 29.6 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, -``` 42.3 million in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and 48.1 million in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` -- In 2030, there will be 30.3 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, -``` +• In 2030, there will be 30.3 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, + 49.2 million in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and 53.8 million in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` -- In 2050, there will be 29.6 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, -``` +• In 2050, there will be 29.6 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, + 50.4 million in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and 47.8 million in the 1.5 °C Scenario. -``` + ``` Figure 10.1 shows the changes in job numbers under the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and ``` @@ -65490,14 +60117,12 @@ total energy-sector jobs in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 66% in the 1.5 °C Scenar 24% (26%), followed by biomass, wind, and solar heating. -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 418 -``` 0. -``` + ``` 0 10 @@ -65526,34 +60151,34 @@ total energy-sector jobs in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 66% in the 1.5 °C Scenar .0 ``` ``` -2015 +1520 ``` ``` 2020 ``` ``` -2025 +2520 ``` ``` -2030 +3020 ``` ``` -2050 +5020 ``` ``` 2020 ``` ``` -2025 +2520 ``` ``` -2030 +3020 ``` ``` -2050 +5020 ``` ``` -ns Millio bs Direct jo +nsllioMi bs Direct jo ``` ``` Co @@ -65642,16 +60267,19 @@ rS ``` ``` ol +``` +``` ar ``` -- -heat - +``` +- heat +``` ``` Geothermal & heat pump ``` -``` 0. + +``` 0 10 ``` @@ -65679,34 +60307,34 @@ Geothermal & heat pump .0 ``` ``` -2015 +1520 ``` ``` 2020 ``` ``` -2025 +2520 ``` ``` -2030 +3020 ``` ``` -2050 +5020 ``` ``` 2020 ``` ``` -2025 +2520 ``` ``` -2030 +3020 ``` ``` -2050 +5020 ``` ``` -ns Millios jobect Dir +ns Millio s job ect Dir ``` ``` Co @@ -65815,38 +60443,37 @@ we r ``` ``` -5012 +5 012 ``` ``` -0022 +0 022 ``` ``` -5022 +5 022 ``` ``` -0032 +0 032 ``` ``` -0052 +0 052 ``` ``` -0022 +0 022 ``` ``` -5022 +5 022 ``` ``` -0032 +0 032 ``` ``` -0052 +0 052 ``` ``` C -oa ``` ``` -l +oal ``` ``` G @@ -65858,37 +60485,30 @@ as , oil ``` ``` -& -``` -``` -dies +& dies ``` ``` el ``` ``` N -uc ``` ``` -le +ucle ``` ``` ar ``` ``` -B -io -m +Biom ``` ``` -as -``` -``` -s +ass ``` ``` H +``` +``` ydr ``` ``` @@ -65898,8 +60518,7 @@ o W ``` ``` -in -d +ind ``` ``` P @@ -65909,50 +60528,26 @@ V G ``` ``` -eo -``` -``` -th -``` -``` -er -``` -``` -m +eotherm ``` ``` al ``` ``` -po -``` -``` -w -e -ww +poweww ``` ``` r ``` ``` S -ol -ar +olar ``` ``` -th +therm ``` ``` -er -``` -``` -m -``` -``` -al -``` -``` -po +alpo ``` ``` w @@ -65961,37 +60556,28 @@ w er ``` ``` -S -ol -ar +Solar ``` -- -hea +-hea ``` t ``` ``` -0. -0 -10 +0.[^0] +10.[^0] +20.[^0] +30.[^0] +40.[^0] ``` -.^0 -20 -.^0 -30 -.^0 -40 -.^0 - ``` 5102 ``` ``` -0022 +0 022 ``` ``` -5022 +5 022 ``` ``` 0302 @@ -66003,69 +60589,52 @@ t 0202 ``` ``` -5022 +5 022 ``` ``` -0032 +0 032 ``` ``` -0052 +0 052 ``` ``` -iM sobjtcerDi +i M s obj tcer Di ``` ``` C -oa ``` ``` -l +oal ``` ``` G ``` ``` -as +as,oil ``` ``` -,o -``` -``` -il & ``` ``` -di -``` -``` -es -``` -``` -el +diesel ``` ``` N -uc ``` ``` -le -``` -``` -ar +uclear ``` ``` B -io -m +iom ``` ``` -as -``` -``` -s +ass ``` ``` H +``` +``` ydyy ``` ``` @@ -66075,8 +60644,7 @@ ro W ``` ``` -in -d +ind ``` ``` P @@ -66086,25 +60654,14 @@ V G ``` ``` -eo +eotherm ``` ``` -th +alpow ``` ``` -er -``` -``` -m -``` -``` -al -``` -``` -po -``` -``` -weww +e +ww ``` ``` r @@ -66114,22 +60671,13 @@ S ola ``` ``` -r^ tr +rtr ``` ``` -he +herm ``` ``` -rm -``` -``` -al -``` -``` -po -``` -``` -w +alpow ``` ``` er @@ -66137,9 +60685,10 @@ er ``` Solar ``` +``` - he - +``` ``` at ``` @@ -66163,59 +60712,45 @@ he ``` ``` at +``` +``` pu ``` ``` mp ``` -``` 5.0°C -``` -``` + scenari -``` -``` + o -``` -``` + 2.0° -``` -``` + Cs -``` -``` + ce -``` -``` + nari -``` -``` + o -``` -``` + 5.0° -``` -``` + Cs -``` -``` + cenari -``` -``` + o -``` -``` + 1.5° -``` -``` + Cs -``` -``` + cenari -``` -``` + o -``` + ``` Fig. 10.1 ``` @@ -66237,47 +60772,32 @@ right ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 419 ``` **10.3 Occupational Employment Modelling** To plan for a just transition, it is important to understand the occupations and loca- - tions at which jobs are likely to be lost or created. The modelling of employment by - type of occupation is based on a new framework developed by UTS/ISF and financed - by the German Greenpeace Foundation. The framework is applied to the results of - the employment modelling discussed in Sect. 10.2. This information can be used to - attempt to understand where labour is likely to be required in the renewable energy - transition, and where job losses are likely to occur. -**_10.3.1 Background: Development of Occupational_** - -**_Employment Modelling_** +**10.3.1 Background: Development of Occupational** +**Employment Modelling** The occupational employment modelling framework used in this study was devel- - oped for renewable energy (solar PV, onshore wind, offshore wind) and fossil fuels - (coal and gas). The three primary studies that classified and measured the occupa- - tional composition of renewable energy industries were conducted by the - International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Through surveys of around 45 - industry participants across a range of developed and developing nations, IRENA - estimated the percentages of person–days for the various occupations across the - solar PV and onshore and offshore wind farm supply chains (IRENA 2017a, b, -2018 ). Figure 10.2 is an example (in this case, for solar PV manufacturing). +[^2018]:). Figure 10.2 is an example (in this case, for solar PV manufacturing). ``` IRENA’s studies are the most detailed estimates of the occupational composi- @@ -66286,7 +60806,7 @@ tions of the solar PV and onshore wind industries to date. ISF has extended the application of IRENA’s work in two key ways: -1. **Mapping IRENA’s job categories against the International Standard** +1. Mapping IRENA’s job categories against the International Standard ``` Classification of Occupations (ISCO): IRENA uses its own occupational clas- @@ -66298,26 +60818,24 @@ renewable energy technologies and fossil fuel sectors. The best fit for each of occupations in the IRENA studies has been identified at one-digit, two-digit, three-digit, and four-digit levels of the ISCO. ``` -2. **Unpacking mid- and low-skill job categories in IRENA’s study** : Some of the +2. Unpacking mid- and low-skill job categories in IRENA’s study: Some of the ``` categories in the IRENA studies containe jobs that are of interest from a just transition perspective. Specifically, IRENA combines: ``` -- ‘Factory workers’ for solar PV and onshore and offshore wind - manufacturing -- ‘Ship crews’ for offshore wind construction and operation and maintenance -- ‘Construction workers’ for solar PV, onshore wind farm construction, and - operation and maintenance. - -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios +• ‘Factory workers’ for solar PV and onshore and offshore wind +manufacturing +• ‘Ship crews’ for offshore wind construction and operation and maintenance +• ‘Construction workers’ for solar PV, onshore wind farm construction, and +operation and maintenance. +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 420 -``` These categories combine a range of technicians, trades, machinery operators, -``` + drivers, and assemblers, and labourers. ``` @@ -66335,14 +60853,14 @@ Zealand Standard Classification of Industry framework (which is based on the int national classification standard) (Australian Bureau of Statistics & Statistics New -Zealand 2013 ). +Zealand [^2013]:). ``` Data from the Australian census on the occupational composition of these manu- ``` facturing sectors were then used to derive the breakdown of employment (Australian -Bureau of Statistics 2017 ). The census includes a comprehensive stocktake of +Bureau of Statistics [^2017]:). The census includes a comprehensive stocktake of employment, with data at one-, two-, three- and four-digit levels for each industry. @@ -66393,61 +60911,36 @@ Logistics ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 421 ``` -tries’ (CEMAC 2017 ). To clarify construction worker categories for onshore wind - +tries’ (CEMAC [^2017]:). To clarify construction worker categories for onshore wind and PV construction, and for the operation and maintenance of solar PV, interviews - were conducted with project managers who were currently overseeing or had - recently completed construction projects (Table 10.4). - -``` The IRENA studies are the richest data source on employment in solar PV and -``` onshore wind projects, but further work is required to directly match renewable - energy job levels against existing fossil fuel sectors and to generate data on mid- and - low-skill jobs, which are of primary interest from a just transition perspective. - -``` As an example, Table 10.5 shows the occupational hierarchy for solar PV con- -``` struction and how it is matched against ISCO. ISCO classifies occupations from a - one-digit level (left) to a four-digit level (right). Each level is more detailed than the - previous one in terms of the labour force required for the type of work. This meth- - odology has been transferred to an occupational hierarchy that has been constructed - for solar PV, onshore wind, and offshore wind using IRENA and other data sources - to map jobs against the ISCO. The result is a matrix with percentages allocated to - each occupation at the one-, two-, three-, and four-digit levels of aggregation. - -``` The framework for fossil fuels was derived from labour statistics from the -``` Australian 2016 national census for coal mining, gas supply, and coal and gas gen- - -eration (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017 ). Although these data are specific to - +eration (Australian Bureau of Statistics [^2017]:). Although these data are specific to Australia, these statistics provide the best source of data, and regional multipliers in - the quantitative modelling can adjust the results to account for economic differences - between regions. **Table 10.4** Wind and solar PV manufacturing–study methodology ``` -TechnologyComponent +Technology Component ``` ``` I-O Industry @@ -66511,8 +61004,7 @@ manufacturing Cells Wafers ``` -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 422 @@ -66723,7 +61215,6 @@ Civil engineering technicians (3112) ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 423 ``` @@ -66930,12 +61421,10 @@ Civil engineering Labourers (9312) ``` 10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios ``` - 424 -``` For each modelling run, the results for the installed capacity of the renewable -``` + energy technologies (MW) and full-time-equivalent jobs (FTE/MW) were used to generate an aggregate level of employment for construction, manufacturing, and @@ -66974,7 +61463,7 @@ occupations, but much lower proportions of machinery operators and drivers. **10.3.1.1 Methodology and Limitations** -- At the aggregate level, it is assumed that rising labour productivity over time will +• At the aggregate level, it is assumed that rising labour productivity over time will ``` reduce the labour intensity (i.e., less FTE/MW) that is applied in the construc- @@ -66984,7 +61473,7 @@ intensity between occupations. Over time, we would expect that the proportion of less-skilled jobs would fall as a result of mechanization. Therefore, the share of less-skilled jobs is likely to be overestimated. ``` -- IRENA estimates a single global figure for each occupation, averaged from sur- +• IRENA estimates a single global figure for each occupation, averaged from sur- ``` veys of industry participants across different global markets. In practice, there @@ -66996,7 +61485,7 @@ turing, operation and maintenance), but not at the disaggregated level. Therefor it is likely that the proportion of less-skilled jobs is overestimated for rich econo- mies and underestimated for less-developed economies. ``` -- The breakdown of the category of ‘construction workers’ is based on interviews +• The breakdown of the category of ‘construction workers’ is based on interviews ``` with some Australian solar and wind project managers. The project managers @@ -67007,7 +61496,6 @@ and further research is required to generate more-accurate estimates. ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - **Table 10.6** Occupational compositions for renewable and fossil fuel technologies @@ -67492,51 +61980,32 @@ Ship crew ``` 70.3% ``` - 426 -**_10.3.2 Results of Occupational Employment Modelling_** +**10.3.2 Results of Occupational Employment Modelling** There will be an increase in jobs in the 1.5 °C Scenario across all occupations - between 2015 and 2025, except in metal trades, which will display a minor decline - of 2%, as shown in Fig. 10.3. - -``` There will be an increase in jobs across all occupations between 2015 and 2025 in -``` the 2.0 °C Scenario, as shown in Fig. 10.4. The occupations with the highest number - of jobs will be plant and machine operators and assemblers, followed by technicians - (including electrical, mechanical, civil, and IT technicians) and electricians. The - occupations that will have the largest percentage increase in jobs from 2015 to 2025 - will be labourers, engineers, electricians, and construction trades. The results are - similar in the 1.5  °C Scenario, except for managers and metal trades, which will - experience minor reductions in overall jobs (3% each) (Table 10.7). - -``` However, the results are not uniform across regions. For example, China and -``` India will both experience a reduction in the number of jobs for managers and cleri- - cal and administrative workers between 2015 and 2025, as shown in Table 10.8. - -``` Table 10.8 and Fig. 10.6 show the employment changes between 2015 and 2025 -``` + under the 1.5 °C Scenario. Across all eight employment groups, the net effect of the energy transition will positive or stable (Fig. 10.5). -``` However, the results are not uniform across regions. For example, China and -``` + India both foresee a reduction in the number of jobs for managers and clerical and administrative workers between 2015 and 2025, as shown in Table 10.9. @@ -67553,364 +62022,196 @@ needs for all employment groups. **10.4 Conclusions** Under both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, the renewable energy transition is pro- - jected to increase employment. Importantly, this analysis has reviewed the locations - and types of occupations and found that the jobs created in wind and solar PV alone - are enough to replace the jobs lost in the fossil fuel industry across all occupation - types. Further research is required to identify the training needs and supportive poli- - cies needed to ensure a just transition for all employment groups. ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 427 ``` ``` --3,0 -``` -``` -00 ,0 +-3 +,0 ``` ``` 00 --2,0 -``` -``` -00 ,0 +,0 ``` ``` 00 --1,0 +-2 +,0 ``` ``` -00 ,0 +00 +,0 +``` +``` +00 +-1 +,0 +``` +``` +00 +,0 +``` +``` +0 00 +1, +000, +``` ``` -(^000) -1,000, 000 -2,000, +2, +000, +``` +``` 000 -3,000, +3, +000, +``` +``` 000 -4,000, +4, +000, +``` +``` 000 -5,000, +5, +000, +``` +``` 000 -6,000, +6, +000, +``` 000 -7,000, +7, +000, + 000 + +``` 2015 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 -2025 -20 -15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 -2015 -2025 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` 20 15 +``` +``` 20 25 +``` +``` +20 +15 +``` +``` +20 +25 +``` +``` +20 +15 +``` +``` +20 +25 +``` +``` MA +``` +``` NA +``` +``` GE +``` +``` RS +``` +``` PR +``` +``` OF +``` +``` ES +``` +``` SI ON -AL -S -EN -GINE -ER -S -TE -CH -NICI -AN -S -CL -ER -IC -AL -& -AD -MI -NIST -RA -TIVE -CO -NS -TR -UCT -ION -TR -AD -ES -ME -TA -L TR -AD -ES -EL -EC -TR -ICIA -NS -OP -ER -AT -OR -S & -AS -SE -MB -LE -RS -LA -BO -UR -ER -S -SH -IP^ -CR -EW -Fo -ss -il fu -el -jo -bs -PV -jo -bs -Onsh -ore -wi -nd -jo -bs -Offs -ho -re -wi -nd -jo -bs -Ch -an -ge -in -fo -ss -il f -uel -jo -bs -**Fig. 10.3** -Division of occupations between fossil fuels and renewable energy in 2015 and 2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - - -428 - -``` --2,0 -``` -``` -00 -,0^00 --1,0 -``` -``` -00 -,0^00 -0 -``` -``` -1,000, -``` -``` -000 -2,000, -``` -``` -000 -3,000, -``` -``` -000 -4,000, -``` -``` -000 -5,000, -``` -``` -000 -6,000, -``` -``` -000 -7,000, -``` -``` -000 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -``` -``` -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -20 -15 -``` -``` -20 -25 -``` -``` -MA -``` -``` -NA -``` -``` -GE -``` -``` -RS -``` -``` -PR -``` -``` -OF -``` -``` -ES -``` -``` -SION ``` ``` AL +``` +``` S ``` ``` @@ -67934,17 +62235,23 @@ CH ``` ``` NI -CIAN +CI +``` +``` +AN ``` ``` S ``` ``` CL +``` +``` ER ``` ``` -ICAL +IC +AL ``` ``` & @@ -67954,13 +62261,17 @@ AD ``` ``` MI -NIST +NI +``` +``` +ST ``` ``` RA ``` ``` -TIVE +TI +VE ``` ``` CO @@ -67969,11 +62280,14 @@ CO NS ``` ``` -TRUC +TR ``` ``` -TI -ON +UCT +``` +``` +IO +N ``` ``` TR @@ -67991,7 +62305,8 @@ ME TA ``` ``` -L TR +L +TR ``` ``` AD @@ -68009,7 +62324,8 @@ EC TR ``` ``` -ICIA +IC +IA ``` ``` NS @@ -68022,10 +62338,13 @@ ER ``` ``` AT +``` +``` OR ``` ``` -S & +S +& ``` ``` AS @@ -68062,6 +62381,494 @@ SH ``` ``` IP +``` +``` +CR +``` +``` +EW +``` +``` +Fo +``` +``` +ss +``` +``` +il +fu +``` +``` +el +``` +``` +jo +bs +``` +``` +PV +``` +``` +jo +bs +``` +``` +Onsh +``` +``` +ore +``` +``` +wi +``` +``` +nd +``` +``` +jo +bs +``` +``` +Offs +``` +``` +ho +``` +``` +re +``` +``` +wi +``` +``` +nd +``` +``` +jo +bs +``` +``` +Ch +``` +``` +an +``` +``` +ge +``` +``` +in +``` +``` +fo +ss +``` +``` +il +fuel +``` +``` +jo +bs +``` +``` +Fig. 10.3 +``` +``` +Division of occupations between fossil fuels and renewable energy in 2015 and 2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario +``` +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios + +428 + +``` +-2 +,0 +``` +``` +00 +,0 +``` +``` +00 +``` +``` +-1 +,0 +``` +``` +00 +,0 +``` +``` +0 00 +1, +000, +``` +``` +000 +2, +000, +``` +``` +000 +3, +000, +``` +``` +000 +4, +000, +``` +``` +000 +5, +000, +``` +``` +000 +6, +000, +``` +``` +000 +7, +000, +``` +``` +000 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +15 +``` +``` +20 +``` +``` +25 +``` +``` +MA +``` +``` +NA +``` +``` +GE +``` +``` +RS +``` +``` +PR +``` +``` +OF +``` +``` +ES +``` +``` +SI +ON +``` +``` +AL +``` +``` +S +``` +``` +EN +``` +``` +GI +``` +``` +NE +``` +``` +ER +``` +``` +S +``` +``` +TE +``` +``` +CH +``` +``` +NI +CI +``` +``` +AN +``` +``` +S +``` +``` +CL +``` +``` +ER +``` +``` +IC +AL +``` +``` +& +``` +``` +AD +``` +``` +MI +``` +``` +NI +ST +``` +``` +RA +``` +``` +TI +VE +``` +``` +CO +``` +``` +NS +``` +``` +TRUC +``` +``` +TI +ON +``` +``` +TR +``` +``` +AD +``` +``` +ES +``` +``` +ME +``` +``` +TA +``` +``` +L +TR +``` +``` +AD +``` +``` +ES +``` +``` +EL +``` +``` +EC +``` +``` +TR +``` +``` +IC +IA +``` +``` +NS +``` +``` +OP +``` +``` +ER +``` +``` +AT +``` +``` +OR +``` +``` +S +& +``` +``` +AS +``` +``` +SE +``` +``` +MB +``` +``` +LE +``` +``` +RS +``` +``` +LA +``` +``` +BO +``` +``` +UR +``` +``` +ER +``` +``` +S +``` +``` +SH +``` +``` +IP +``` +``` CR ``` ``` @@ -68078,6 +62885,8 @@ fu ``` ``` el +``` +``` jo ``` ``` @@ -68115,6 +62924,8 @@ Of ``` ``` fs +``` +``` ho ``` ``` @@ -68143,6 +62954,8 @@ in ``` ``` fo +``` +``` ss ``` ``` @@ -68160,7 +62973,6 @@ Division of occupations between fossil fuels and renewable energy in 2015 and 20 ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 429 ``` @@ -68208,6 +63020,8 @@ Managers ``` ``` − +``` +``` 505,000 ``` ``` @@ -68236,6 +63050,8 @@ Professionals (Social, Legal, finance, scientific) ``` ``` − +``` +``` 430,000 ``` ``` @@ -68264,6 +63080,8 @@ Engineers (Industrial, electrical & civil) ``` ``` − +``` +``` 225,000 ``` ``` @@ -68292,6 +63110,8 @@ Technicians (Electrical, mechanical, civil & IT) ``` ``` − +``` +``` 900,000 ``` ``` @@ -68320,6 +63140,8 @@ Clerical & administrative workers ``` ``` − +``` +``` 395,000 ``` ``` @@ -68375,6 +63197,8 @@ Metal trades ``` ``` − +``` +``` 970,000 ``` ``` @@ -68403,6 +63227,8 @@ Electricians ``` ``` − +``` +``` 560,000 ``` ``` @@ -68431,6 +63257,8 @@ Plant & machine operators & assemblers ``` ``` − +``` +``` 1,700,000 ``` ``` @@ -68459,6 +63287,8 @@ Labourers (Manufacturing, construction & transport) ``` ``` − +``` +``` 235,000 ``` ``` @@ -68515,9 +63345,9 @@ Total ``` Ship crew ``` -- -- -- +– +– +– ``` 490,000 @@ -68534,8 +63364,7 @@ Ship crew ``` 4000% ``` -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 430 @@ -68610,6 +63439,8 @@ Managers ``` ``` − +``` +``` 24% ``` ``` @@ -68719,6 +63550,8 @@ Technicians (Electrical, mechanical, civil & IT) ``` ``` − +``` +``` 5% ``` ``` @@ -68759,6 +63592,8 @@ Clerical & administrative workers ``` ``` − +``` +``` 13% ``` ``` @@ -68832,6 +63667,8 @@ Metal trades ``` ``` − +``` +``` 36% ``` ``` @@ -68905,6 +63742,8 @@ Plant & machine operators & assemblers ``` ``` − +``` +``` 29% ``` ``` @@ -69012,7 +63851,6 @@ Ship crew ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 431 ``` @@ -69258,6 +64096,8 @@ Metal trades ``` ``` − +``` +``` 39,479 ``` ``` @@ -69389,9 +64229,9 @@ Total ``` Ship crew ``` -- -- -- +– +– +– ``` 355,791 @@ -69408,8 +64248,7 @@ Ship crew ``` 2917% ``` -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 432 @@ -69902,15 +64741,13 @@ Ship crew ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 433 ``` **Fig. 10.5** Employment changes between 2015 and 2025 by occupational breakdown under the 2.0 °C Scenario -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios - +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios 434 @@ -69920,18 +64757,16 @@ E. Dominish et al. ``` E. Dominish et al. ``` - ``` 435 ``` **References** -``` Australian Bureau of Statistics (2017), Employment in Renewable Energy Activities – Explanatory -Notes. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4631.0Explanatory+Notes12015-16. +Notes. [http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4631.0Explanatory+Notes12015-16](http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4631.0Explanatory+Notes12015-16). Accessed September 16 2018. Australian Bureau of Statistics & Statistics New Zealand (2013), Australian and New Zealand -Standard Classification of Occupations, http://www.abs.gov.au/ANZSCO, Accessed September +Standard Classification of Occupations, [http://www.abs.gov.au/ANZSCO](http://www.abs.gov.au/ANZSCO), Accessed September 16 2018 Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center (CEMAC), 2017. Benchmarks of global clean energy manufacturing. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/65619.pdf @@ -69940,31 +64775,31 @@ plan for the fossil fuel industry. Report prepared by ISF for German Greenpeace November 2018. International Labour Office (2012), International Standard Classification of Occupations, Geneva, ILO -International Labour Office. (2015). Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sus- -tainable economies and societies for all. Geneva -IRENA (2017a) Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Onshore Wind, -IRENA, Abu Dhabi ; -IRENA (2017b) Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Solar PV, IRENA, -Abu Dhabi. -IRENA (2018) Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Offshore Wind, IRENA, -Abu Dhabi. +International Labour Office. (2015). _Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sus-_ +_tainable economies and societies for all_. Geneva +IRENA (2017a) _Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Onshore Wind,_ +_IRENA, Abu Dhabi_; +IRENA (2017b) _Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Solar PV, IRENA,_ +_Abu Dhabi._ +IRENA (2018) _Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Offshore Wind, IRENA,_ +_Abu Dhabi._ Jenkins, K., McCauley, D., Heffron, R., Stephan, H., & Rehner, R. (2016). Energy justice: A con- -ceptual review. Energy Research and Social Science , 11 , 174–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. +ceptual review**.** _Energy Research and Social Science_**,** [^11]:, 174–182**.** https://doi.org/10.1016/j. erss.2015.10.004 -Rutovitz, J., Dominish, E., & Downes, J.  (2015). Calculating global energy sector jobs: 2015 -methodology. Prepared for Greenpeace International by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, +Rutovitz, J., Dominish, E., & Downes, J.  (2015). _Calculating global energy sector jobs: 2015_ +_methodology_. Prepared for Greenpeace International by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney. -Smith, S. (2017). Just Transition – A Report for the OECD. Brussels. Retrieved from https://www. +Smith, S. (2017)**.** Just Transition – A Report for the OECD. Brussels. Retrieved from https://www. oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just- transition.pdf -Sovacool, B.  K., & Dworkin, M.  H. (2014). Global energy justice: Problems, principles, and -practices. Global energy justice: Problems, principles, and practices. https://doi.org/10.1017/ +Sovacool, B.  K., & Dworkin, M.  H. (2014)**.** _Global energy justice: Problems, principles, and_ +_practices. Global energy justice: Problems, principles, and practices_. https://doi.org/10.1017/ CBO9781107323605 -UNFCCC. (2016). Just transition of the workforce, and the creation of decent work and quality -jobs: Technical paper by the Secretariat. Paris. https://doi.org/10.1186/1750-9378-6-S2-S6 -``` +UNFCCC. (2016)**.** _Just transition of the workforce, and the creation of decent work and quality_ +_jobs: Technical paper by the Secretariat_. Paris**.** https://doi.org/10.1186/1750-9378-6-S2-S6 + **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -69974,40 +64809,28 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -``` -10 Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios -``` +[^10]: Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios © The Author(s) 2019 437 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_11 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 11 +**Chapter 11** #### Requirements for Minerals and Metals #### for 100% Renewable Scenarios **Damien Giurco, Elsa Dominish, Nick Florin, Takuma Watari,** - **and Benjamin McLellan** **Abstract** This chapter explores the magnitude of the changes in patterns of material - use that will be associated with the increasing deployment of renewable energy and - discusses the implications for sustainable development. In particular, this chapter - focuses on the increased use of lithium and cobalt, metals which are used extensively - in battery technologies, and silver used in solar cells. Consistent with the strong - growth in renewable energy and electrification of the transport system required in a - 1.5°C scenario, the material requirements also rise dramatically, particularly for - cobalt and lithium. Scenarios developed for this study show that increasing recycling - rates and material efficiency can significantly reduce primary demand for metals. **11.1 Introduction** @@ -70016,7 +64839,7 @@ Globally, recent investments in new renewable energy infrastructure have been do ble the investments in new energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power (REN21 -2018 ). This is strong evidence of the increasing momentum of the energy transition +[^2018]:). This is strong evidence of the increasing momentum of the energy transition away from fossil fuels. A rapid transition to 100% renewables offers hope for reduc- @@ -70028,9 +64851,8 @@ requirements for new patterns of material use to support the renewable energy in structure, including wind turbines, solar cells, batteries, and other technologies. -``` This chapter explores the magnitude of the changes in patterns of material use -``` + that will be associated with the increasing deployment of renewable energy, and discusses the implications for sustainable development. In particular, this chapter @@ -70044,66 +64866,35 @@ e-mail: damien.giurco@uts.edu.au; elsa.dominish@uts.edu.au; nick.florin@uts.edu. T. Watari · B. McLellan Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan - 438 cobalt (again used in batteries, particularly for vehicles), and silver (used in solar - cells because it is an excellent conductor of electricity). - -``` The importance of understanding how material use is affected by renewable -``` -energy technologies is already established (Ali et  al. 2017 ; Valero et  al. 2018 ). A - +energy technologies is already established (Ali et  al. [^2017]:; Valero et  al. [^2018]:). A range of studies have identified different aspects of the challenges associated with - the supply of the materials needed for renewable energy. The first aspect is the avail- - -ability of mineral supplies. For example, Mohr et al. ( 2012 ) developed commodity- - +ability of mineral supplies. For example, Mohr et al. ([^2012]:) developed commodity- focused supply projections for lithium, with an emphasis on the origins and locations - of available lithium deposits over time, which are contrasted with a simple demand - function. Other studies have placed more emphasis on demand scenarios, either for - -a specific geographic location, such as Germany (Viebahn et al. 2015 ) or globally - -(Valero et al. 2018 ; Watari et al. 2018 ), and some have explored the role of technol- - -ogy mixes and material substitution in detail (Månberger and Stenqvist 2018 ). - -``` +a specific geographic location, such as Germany (Viebahn et al. [^2015]:) or globally +(Valero et al. [^2018]:; Watari et al. [^2018]:), and some have explored the role of technol- +ogy mixes and material substitution in detail (Månberger and Stenqvist [^2018]:). In addition to issues of resource availability, environmental and social issues -``` -have also been explored (Giurco et  al. 2014 ; Florin and Dominish 2017 ) and the - -need for improved resource governance has been highlighted (Prior et al. 2013 ; Ali - -et al. 2017 ). This chapter evaluates the total demand to determine which metals may - +have also been explored (Giurco et  al. [^2014]:; Florin and Dominish [^2017]:) and the +need for improved resource governance has been highlighted (Prior et al. [^2013]:; Ali +et al. [^2017]:). This chapter evaluates the total demand to determine which metals may present bottlenecks to the supply of renewable energy technologies. The potential to - offset primary demand is explored through a range of scenarios for technology type, - material efficiency, and recycling rates. This chapter draws on the results of a larger - study funded by Earthworks (see Dominish et al. 2019). - -``` This chapter has five sections. Following this introductory section, the second -``` section outlines the material requirements for key renewable energy infrastructure - technologies, namely solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and batteries. The - key assumptions, and the energy and resource scenarios are described in Sect. 11.3, - together with a summary of the methodology, which is described in detail in Chap. - -3. The requirements for selected materials (lithium, cobalt, and silver) are presented - +[^3]:. The requirements for selected materials (lithium, cobalt, and silver) are presented in Sect. 11.4. Following the results, a discussion is presented in Sect. 11.5. **11.2 Overview of Metal Requirements for each Technology** @@ -70116,7 +64907,7 @@ technologies, which add to the complexity of material considerations. The key me als used for solar PV, wind power, batteries, and EV are discussed below. -**_11.2.1 Solar PV_** +**11.2.1 Solar PV** A typical crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV panel, which is currently the dominant tech- @@ -70131,58 +64922,39 @@ lines) and other metals (e.g., tin and lead). Thin film technologies, ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 439 ``` copper–indium–gallium–(di)selenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe), make - up the remainder of the market. These technologies require less material overall - than crystalline silicon. For CdTe panels, the composition is 96–97% glass, 3%–4% - polymer, and less than 1% semi-conductor materials (CdTe) and other metals (e.g., - nickel, zinc, tin). CIGS contain about 88%–89% glass, 7% aluminium, 4% polymer, - and less than 1% semi-conductor material (indium, gallium, selenium) and other - -metals (e.g., copper) (Weckend et al. 2016 ). Figure 11.1 provides a simplified dia- - +metals (e.g., copper) (Weckend et al. [^2016]:). Figure 11.1 provides a simplified dia- gram of the PV supply chain, including key materials and sub-components. -**_11.2.2 Wind_** +**11.2.2 Wind** The major raw materials required for the manufacture of wind turbine components - are bulk commodities: iron ore, copper, aluminium, limestone, and carbon. Wind - turbines use steel for the towers, nacelle structural components, and the drivetrain, - accounting for about 80% of the total weight. Some turbine generator designs use - direct-drive magnetics, which contain the rare earth metals neodymium and dyspro- - -sium **(** Fig. 11.2 **).** The development of direct-drive permanent magnet generators - +sium **(**Fig. 11.2**).** The development of direct-drive permanent magnet generators (PMG) by major producers (e.g., Siemens and General Electric) simplifies the - design by eliminating the gearbox, and this is attractive for offshore applications - -because it reduces maintenance (Zimmermann et al. 2013 ). It is estimated that about - +because it reduces maintenance (Zimmermann et al. [^2013]:). It is estimated that about 20% of all installed wind turbines (both onshore and offshore) use rare earth mag- - -nets (CEMAC 2017 ). +nets (CEMAC [^2017]:). **Fig. 11.1** Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for solar PV -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 440 -**_11.2.3 Batteries and Electric Vehicles_** +**11.2.3 Batteries and Electric Vehicles** This study focuses on lithium ion batteries (LIBs), which power almost all electric @@ -70202,7 +64974,7 @@ these components are typically housed in an aluminium container. LIBs are gener- ally referred to by the material content of the cathode, which accounts for 90% of -the material value and about 25% of the total weight (Gratz et al. 2014 ). +the material value and about 25% of the total weight (Gratz et al. [^2014]:). ``` The size and type of the LIB has the greatest impact on the material require- @@ -70215,21 +64987,20 @@ in the cathode. The most common LIB types for EV applications are nickel–manga nese–cobalt (NMC), lithium–iron phosphate (LFP), nickel–cobalt–aluminium -(NCA), and lithium–manganese oxide (LMO) (Vaalma et  al. 2018 ). NMC is the +(NCA), and lithium–manganese oxide (LMO) (Vaalma et  al. [^2018]:). NMC is the most common battery type for passenger vehicles, and NCA is also common, with a small share for LMO. However, in China, LFP is the dominant chemistry. Electric -buses have traditionally used LFP batteries (BNEF 2018 ) and lead–acid batteries are +buses have traditionally used LFP batteries (BNEF [^2018]:) and lead–acid batteries are most commonly used for two-wheel vehicles. However, the application of LIBs in -this market sector is growing (Yan et al. 2018 ). +this market sector is growing (Yan et al. [^2018]:). -``` For energy storage, NMC and NCA are the most commonly used chemistries. A -``` + simplified overview of the lithium-ion battery supply chain, including its key metals **Fig. 11.2** Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for wind power @@ -70237,7 +65008,6 @@ simplified overview of the lithium-ion battery supply chain, including its key m ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 4 41 ``` @@ -70251,11 +65021,11 @@ lower-cost materials, are under development and are already used in some vehicle However, rare earth magnets are expected to remain the standard for the foreseeable -future because of their higher performance characteristics (Widmer et al. 2015 ). +future because of their higher performance characteristics (Widmer et al. [^2015]:). **11.3 Scenarios and Key Assumptions** -**_11.3.1 Electricity and Transport Scenarios_** +**11.3.1 Electricity and Transport Scenarios** The energy scenarios presented here were developed to achieve the climate target in @@ -70271,8 +65041,7 @@ tric mobility, will not change. In contrast, many scenarios have been proposed i **Fig. 11.3** Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for LIB and EV -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 442 @@ -70286,18 +65055,16 @@ the Paris targets. The scenario proposed here includes both a shift to 100% rene electricity and a shift to renewable electricity and fuels in the transport sector. -``` In this scenario, solar PV will account for more than one-third of the installed -``` + capacity by 2050, with the remainder from wind and other renewables. Lithium-ion batteries will account for approximately 6% of energy storage (which will be domi- nated by pumped hydro and hydrogen). -``` In the transport system, we focus on the material requirements for the batteries -``` + used in road transport, because other types of transport do not require batteries to power drivetrains or are assumed to rely on other forms of energy (e.g., biofuels for @@ -70334,7 +65101,7 @@ commercial vehicles. Lead–acid batteries are also the main type of battery for tric bikes and scooters, although lithium-ion may replace these in future. -**_11.3.2 Resource Scenario Development_** +**11.3.2 Resource Scenario Development** Five resource scenarios were developed to estimate the metal demand for 100% @@ -70346,7 +65113,7 @@ nology. Our aim is to understand how primary demand can be offset through change in technology or recycling rates. -**_11.3.3 Technology Assumptions_** +**11.3.3 Technology Assumptions** The total metal demand for renewable energy and battery technology each year is @@ -70357,62 +65124,36 @@ each technology introduced in a specific year. This introduced stock will accoun ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 443 ``` for the new capacity and the replacement of technologies at the end of their lives, - based on a lifetime distribution curve for the average lifetime. - -``` The values for metal intensity are given in tonnes/GW (for solar PV) or tonnes/ -``` GWh (for batteries) of capacity, and two values are given for each metal to evaluate - the impact of improving the material efficiency (for solar PV) and technology shifts - (for batteries). To evaluate the impact of recycling, the primary demand is estimated - by multiplying the discarded products by the recycling rate. The recycling rate is - obtained by multiplying the collection rate by the recovery efficiency of a metal - from a specific technology. This recycling rate is also varied to obtain a current rate - and a potential rate. The potential recycling rate is technologically possible, but is - not currently applicable because it is not economic. The detailed assumptions for - batteries and solar PV are explained in detail in the following section. -**_11.3.4 Batteries_** +**11.3.4 Batteries** The ‘current materials intensity’ for LIB for EVs and storage (Table 11.2) is esti- - mated based on the assumed market shares of the LIB technologies: NMC (60%), - -LMO (20%), NCA (15%), and LFP (5%) (Vaalma et al. 2018 ). The dominant bat- - +LMO (20%), NCA (15%), and LFP (5%) (Vaalma et al. [^2018]:). The dominant bat- tery technologies in the future are not likely to be the same as those commercialized - today. Therefore, for the ‘future technology scenario’, we assume that lithium–sul- - -fur batteries will replace LIB for EVs (Cano et al. 2018 ). We have modelled a future - +fur batteries will replace LIB for EVs (Cano et al. [^2018]:). We have modelled a future market (Table 11.3) in which Li–S will achieve a 50% market share for EVs by - 2050, with deployment scaling up at a linear rate, assuming the first commercializa- - tion in 2030. In this scenario, the technology does not change for storage batteries. - -``` We have assumed a collection efficiency of 100% for all batteries and a recovery -``` -rate of 90% for Co and Ni (Georgi-Maschler et al. 2012 ). A 10% recovery rate is - +rate of 90% for Co and Ni (Georgi-Maschler et al. [^2012]:). A 10% recovery rate is assumed for Li, acknowledging that pyrometallurgical processing routes account - for most of the current global capacity, and Li recovery may not be possible by this **Table 11.1** Summary of metal scenarios @@ -70475,49 +65216,34 @@ recycling rates ``` Light blue ``` -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 444 -route (King et  al. 2018 ). For scenarios that assume a ‘potential future recycling’ - +route (King et  al. [^2018]:). For scenarios that assume a ‘potential future recycling’ rate, we have assumed 95% recovery for all metals. This is reasonable given that +100% recovery has been reported in the laboratory (Gratz et al. [^2014]:).[^1] However, +some losses during processing seem unavoidable.[^2] -100% recovery has been reported in the laboratory (Gratz et al. 2014 ).^1 However, - -some losses during processing seem unavoidable.^2 - -**_11.3.5 Solar PV_** +**11.3.5 Solar PV** For solar PV, we assume that the technology types do not change until 2050, and - that they retain their current market shares, so that crystalline silicon will remain the - dominant technology. We have modelled the potential to offset demand through - increases in material efficiency and increases in recycling. - -``` A high and a low value are given for silver to show the impact of material effi- -``` ciency on silver demand. The current data on silver intensity are from a survey of the - -PV industry (ITRPV 2018 ), and the future material efficiency is based on an assumed - -minimum amount of silver (Kavlak et  al. 2015 ). The ‘current recycling rate’ sce- - +PV industry (ITRPV [^2018]:), and the future material efficiency is based on an assumed +minimum amount of silver (Kavlak et  al. [^2015]:). The ‘current recycling rate’ sce- narios assume a current collection rate of 85% for all panels, consistent with the - -target of the EU WEEE Directive.^3 This should be considered an average rate, not- - +target of the EU WEEE Directive.[^3] This should be considered an average rate, not- ing that remote and/or distributed roof-top systems will be more costly to collect and - transport than large utility-scale PV. We assume that no recycling is currently occur- -(^1) See: https://americanmanganeseinc.com/investor-info-3/investment-proposition/ -(^2) Pers comms Boxall, N. -(^3) More details available here: [http://ec.](http://ec.) europa.eu/environment/waste/weee/index_en.htm +[^1]:See: https://americanmanganeseinc.com/investor-info-3/investment-proposition/ +[^2]:Pers comms Boxall, N. +[^3]:More details available here: http://ec. europa.eu/environment/waste/weee/index_en.htm + **Table 11.2** Material intensity and recycling rates Solar PV Batteries Materials Silver Lithium Cobalt @@ -70525,93 +65251,70 @@ Current materials intensity 20 t/GW 113 t/GWh 124 t/GWh Future technology 4 t/GW 411 t/GWh Current recycling rate [%] 0% 0% 90% Potential recycling rate [%] 81% 95% 95% + **Table 11.3** Market share + +``` Solar PV Batteries Technology c-Si Li-ion Li-S -Current market share95.8% 100% +Current market share 95.8% 100% Future market share Decreases to 50% by 2050 +``` +``` 50% by 2050, beginning from 2030 +``` +``` D. Giurco et al. - - +``` ``` 445 ``` ring for silver from PV, but that 95% recovery may be possible. Therefore, for the - ‘potential recycling rate’ scenarios, we assume a 95% recovery efficiency and an - 85% collection rate, which will result in an 81% metal recycling rate. -**_11.3.6 Metal Assumptions_** +**11.3.6 Metal Assumptions** For each scenario, the annual primary demand is compared with the current produc- - tion (2017 data), and the cumulative demand to 2050 is compared with current - reserves. The data presented (Table 11.4) highlight the annual production, total - resources, and reserves. ‘Reserves’ are the subset of the total resources that can be - economically mined under current conditions. They are dependent on a multitude of - factors and can change over time. By contrast, resources are less certain economi- - cally and there may be no firm plan to mine them. Over time, new resources can be - discovered and as economic conditions change, resources may be upgraded to - reserves (for example, where the price for the metal increases, thus making lower- - -grade or more- challenging ores profitable or where a new technology for extraction - +grade or more-challenging ores profitable or where a new technology for extraction allows lower cost processing). In contrast, reserve estimates can also be downgraded - over time (as occurred with coal reserve estimates in UK and Germany). **11.4 Results for Lithium, Cobalt, and Silver** The cumulative demand from renewable energy technologies for cobalt, lithium, and - silver by 2050 has been modelled, and is compared to current reserves in Fig. 11.4. - The cumulative demand for cobalt from renewable energy and transport exceeds the - current reserves in all scenarios, and for lithium, the cumulative demand is exceeded - in all scenarios, except the ‘potential recycling scenario’. For silver, the total demand - for silver from renewable energy will reach around 50% of current reserves. - -``` The annual demand in 2050 is compared with the current rates of production -``` (based on 2017 data). Both cobalt and lithium have annual demands that far exceed - the current rates of production—particularly lithium in the ‘future technology’ sce- - nario. However, the annual demand for silver will remain below current production - levels (Fig. 11.5). - -``` The detailed results for each metal are shown in the following section. -``` -**Table 11.4** Metal assumptions -``` +**Table 11.4** Metal assumptions Metal Production 2017 (tonnes/year) Reserve (tonnes) Resources (tonnes) Cobalt 110,000 7,100,000 25,000,000 Lithium 46,500 16,000,000 53,000,000 Silver 25,000 530,000 N/A -``` -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 446 -**_11.4.1 Cobalt_** +**11.4.1 Cobalt** The annual demand for cobalt from EVs and storage could exceed the current pro- @@ -70625,9 +65328,8 @@ the primary demand in both the current technology and future technology scenarios. -``` The cumulative total demand to 2050 (with current technology and no recycling) -``` + could exceed current reserves by 400%, and exceed current resources by 20%. Even with recycling and a shift to technologies that use less cobalt, the cumulative demand @@ -70794,29 +65496,28 @@ with current production rates (note that scale varies across the metals) ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 447 ``` ``` -(5 00,000) +(500,000) ``` - ``` -500,00 0 +500,000 ``` ``` -1,000, 000 +1,000,000 ``` ``` -1,500, 000 +1,500,000 ``` ``` -2,000, 000 +2,000,000 ``` ``` -2,500, 000 +2,500,000 ``` ``` 2015 202020252030203520402045 2050 @@ -70854,7 +65555,7 @@ Future technology & potential recycling Current production 0 ``` ``` -5,000,00 0 +5,000,000 ``` ``` 10,000,000 @@ -70896,10 +65597,7 @@ m et ``` ``` -al -``` -``` -demand +aldemand ``` ``` (tonnes @@ -70915,56 +65613,38 @@ Future technology & potential recycling ``` **Fig. 11.7** Cumulative primary demand for cobalt from EVs and storage by 2050 -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 448 -**_11.4.2 Lithium_** +**11.4.2 Lithium** The annual demand for lithium for EVs and storage could exceed the current pro- - duction rates by around 2022 (in all scenarios). In the ‘future technology and no - recycling’ scenario, a shift to Li–S will increase the demand for lithium, because - these batteries have a higher amount of lithium. Increasing recycling from its cur- - rent low levels (which are assumed to be 10%) will offer the greatest potential to - offset the primary demand for lithium. - -``` The cumulative demand for lithium by 2050 will be below the resource levels for -``` all scenarios, but will exceed the reserves unless there is a shift to a high recycling - rate. The cumulative demand could be as high as 170% of the current reserves with - the current technology, and could be 280% of current reserves with a switch to Li–S - batteries (Figs. 11.8 and 11.9). -**_11.4.3 Silver_** +**11.4.3 Silver** The total annual demand for silver could reach more than 40% of the current pro- - duction rates by 2050, assuming no recycling and that the materials efficiency does - not change (Fig. 11.10). The cumulative demand to 2050 could reach around half - the current reserves with the current technology, and around one-quarter if the tech- - nology improves (Fig. 11.11). The reduction in material intensity in the ‘future tech- - nology’ scenario, in which silver use decreases from 20 to 4 tonnes/GW, has the - greatest potential to reduce demand. - ``` -500, 000 +500,000 ``` ``` 1,000,000 @@ -71027,7 +65707,6 @@ Future technology & potential recycling Current production ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 449 ``` @@ -71126,13 +65805,12 @@ ary me ``` ``` -ta -``` -``` -lde +talde ``` ``` m +``` +``` an ``` ``` @@ -71145,10 +65823,7 @@ tonnes /ye ``` ``` -ar -``` -``` -) +ar) ``` ``` Total demand (no recycling) Potential recycling @@ -71157,81 +65832,56 @@ Current production ``` **Fig. 11.10** Annual primary demand for silver from solar PV (c-Si) -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 450 **11.5 Discussion** Within the context of the increasing metal resource requirements for the renewable - energy and storage technologies, the rapid increase in the demand for both cobalt - and lithium is of greatest concern, and the demand for both metals will exceed the - current production rates by 2023 and 2022, respectively. The demand for these met- - als will increase more rapidly than it does for silver, partly because solar PV is a - more established technology and silver use has become very efficient, whereas the - electrification of the transport system and the rapid expansion of lithium battery - usage has only begun to accelerate in the last few years. - -``` The potential to offset the primary demand differs, depending on the technology. -``` Offsetting demand through secondary sources of cobalt and lithium has the most - potential to reduce total primary demand for these metals, as batteries have a com- - paratively short lifetime of approximately 10 years. The cumulative demand for both - metals will exceed current reserves, but with high recycling rates, they can remain - below resource levels. However, there is a delay until the period in which recycling - will offset demand, because there must be enough batteries in use and reaching the - ends of their lives to be collected and recycled. This delay could be further extended - by strategies for the reuse of vehicular batteries as stationary storage, which might - save costs in the short term and increase the uptake of PV. The efficiency of cobalt - use in batteries also significantly reduces demand, and this is already happening as - manufacturers shift towards lower-cobalt chemistries (Energy Insights by McKinsey - -2018 ). However, this is also likely to lead to an increase in the demand for lithium. - -``` +[^2018]:). However, this is also likely to lead to an increase in the demand for lithium. Increasing the efficiency of material use has the biggest potential utility in offset- -``` ting the demand for PV metals, whereas recycling will have a smaller impact on ``` 0 ``` ``` -100,00 0 +100,000 ``` ``` -200,00 0 +200,000 ``` ``` -300,00 0 +300,000 ``` ``` -400,00 0 +400,000 ``` ``` -500,00 0 +500,000 ``` ``` -600,00 0 +600,000 ``` ``` Cumula @@ -71258,10 +65908,7 @@ ld em ``` ``` -an -``` -``` -d( +and( ``` ``` ton @@ -71282,7 +65929,6 @@ Future technology & no recycling Future technology & potential recycling ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 451 ``` @@ -71294,13 +65940,13 @@ the growth of silver and its demand in 2050 are still considerable. This is impo especially when considering that solar PV currently consumes approximately 9% of -end-use silver (The Silver Institute & Thomson Reuters 2018 ), and although it is +end-use silver (The Silver Institute & Thomson Reuters [^2018]:), and although it is possible to create silver-less solar panels, these panels are not expected to be on the market in the near future (ITRPV 2018). -**_11.5.1 Limitations_** +**11.5.1 Limitations** This study only focuses on the metal demand for renewable energy and transport. It @@ -71328,9 +65974,8 @@ their importance. However, further analysis is required of other metals that wil important in the renewable energy transition. -``` Another important limitation is that this analysis does not consider the impact of -``` + the demand for a mineral on the mining of that mineral and therefore on the amount of energy required for this mining and processing activity. In particular, as the @@ -71339,11 +65984,11 @@ potential ore grade declines, and polymetallic ore processing and the mining of deeper ore bodies increase, it is possible that this feedback loop could have a more- -than- marginal influence on the overall sectoral energy consumption. To examine +than-marginal influence on the overall sectoral energy consumption. To examine this is an area accurately will require much more-complex modelling. -**_11.5.2 Comparison with Other Studies_** +**11.5.2 Comparison with Other Studies** A large number of studies have examined scenarios for renewable energy and stor- @@ -71357,62 +66002,35 @@ potential constraints that certain minerals may impose. This increased interest been prompted to some extent by China’s rare earth export restrictions of -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 452 2009–2011, which reflect the sense that mineral supply chains are still quite inse- - cure. Most of these studies have addressed specific technologies or specific coun- - tries or regions, rather than global climate targets. A number of studies have - specifically and directly addressed the Paris Agreement targets (ensuring that the - temperature rise does not exceed 2.0 °C), although the modelling frameworks have - been slightly different. Some of the authors of the present chapter have been - -involved in these studies (Tokimatsu et al. 2017 ; Watari et al. 2018 ). - -``` +involved in these studies (Tokimatsu et al. [^2017]:; Watari et al. [^2018]:). A range of variables affect the results, including the installed capacity and tech- -``` nology type in the energy scenario; the assumed market demand of technology - types (e.g., type of battery or solar panel); and the material intensity assumptions. - The projected future demand for lithium is higher than in previous studies, and that - -for cobalt is similar or higher (Månberger and Stenqvist 2018 ; Watari et al. 2018 ; - -Valero et  al. 2018 ; Watari et  al. 2018 ), as shown in Table 11.5. This is primarily - +for cobalt is similar or higher (Månberger and Stenqvist [^2018]:; Watari et al. [^2018]:; +Valero et  al. [^2018]:; Watari et  al. [^2018]:), as shown in Table 11.5. This is primarily attributable to the ambitious renewable energy scenario used in this study, which - includes achieving a 100% renewable transport system by 2050, whereas the other - studies have still included a large share of gasoline-powered cars in 2050. This - study also includes batteries for stationary energy storage, whereas the other studies - have only included batteries for road transport. Moreover, this study assumes a - shorter battery life of 10 years, based on current warranties, whereas some scenarios - assume a longer life. - -``` The results for silver are in the middle of the range of results given by other stud- -``` ies. Our scenario includes a higher installed capacity of PV in 2050 than the other - studies. However, this study also assumes a lower metal intensity than previous - studies, because new data have been published based on the current material use by - -the PV industry (ITRPV 2018 ). +the PV industry (ITRPV [^2018]:). **11.6 Supply Impacts and Challenges** @@ -71440,7 +66058,7 @@ scenario 420% 170% 50% ``` ``` -Watari et al. ( 2018 ) Beyond 2 degree scenario (IEA) 180% 130% 78% +Watari et al. (2018) Beyond 2 degree scenario (IEA) 180% 130% 78% Månberger and Stenqvist (2018) ``` @@ -71448,79 +66066,51 @@ Månberger and Stenqvist Beyond 2 degree scenario (IEA) 440% 100% 18% ``` ``` -Valero et al. ( 2018 ) 2 degree scenario 70% 40% 70% +Valero et al. (2018) 2 degree scenario 70% 40% 70% ``` ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 453 ``` -**_11.6.1 Geopolitical Landscape_** +**11.6.1 Geopolitical Landscape** The geopolitical shift underway in the supply of the resources required for the - globe’s future energy mix is clearly illustrated in Fig. 11.12. Whereas the value of - the lithium industry is much less than the value of the oil industry, this comparison - highlights a distinct shift in the energy commodities that society values. Oil’s rate of - -use is projected to decline somewhat in the decade ahead (Mohr et al. 2015 ), whereas - -lithium’s production is expected to grow rapidly (Mohr et al. 2012 ). - -``` +use is projected to decline somewhat in the decade ahead (Mohr et al. [^2015]:), whereas +lithium’s production is expected to grow rapidly (Mohr et al. [^2012]:). Although it is not a key focus of this particular chapter, the dominance of China -``` in the supply of rare earths has encouraged manufacturing countries to look at diver- - sifying their supply sources, including through the recovery of rare earths from - recycled material. A similar situation of heavily concentrated supply occurs for - cobalt, where the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the largest supplier, at - around 66,000 tonnes per year. The next four largest cobalt-producing countries - (China, Canada, Russia, and Australia) only produce 5–7000 tonnes per year each. - The supply chain is also concentrated downstream, with around 50% of cobalt - smelted and refined in China. -**_11.6.2 Social and Environmental Impacts_** +**11.6.2 Social and Environmental Impacts** The mining and supply chain for these metals can have adverse social and environ- - mental consequences for workers, local communities, and the environment. These - impacts are most significant for the cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of - Congo, where there are human rights violations, child labour, and severe environ- - -mental pollution affecting health (Florin and Dominish 2017 ). - -``` +mental pollution affecting health (Florin and Dominish [^2017]:). These types of impacts at mine sites and along the supply chain also influence the -``` availability of primary resources. For example, whereas Australia and Chile are - large producers of lithium, large deposits remain undeveloped in Bolivia, due in part - to local concerns over the social and environmental impacts. The global silver mar- - ket receives less media attention than the market for lithium, but the world’s second- - largest silver mine (Escobal) in Guatemala is currently closed by a constitutional -``` Top 5 Oil producing countries: Northern hemisphere features heavily -``` + ``` Top 5 Lithium producing countries: @@ -71529,25 +66119,23 @@ features heavily ``` **Fig. 11.12** Top five oil-producing countries (left) versus lithium-producing countries (right) -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 454 court ruling that the Xinca Indigenous peoples were not adequately consulted before -a mine licence was granted (Jamasmie 2018 ). +a mine licence was granted (Jamasmie [^2018]:). -``` The increased use of materials such as lithium, cobalt, and silver has economic -``` + implications for the future of battery manufacture. For example, the cost of cobalt has risen dramatically from US$20000/t in 2016 to US$80000 in 2018 (Tchetvertakov -2018 ). This is prompting manufacturers to look for alternatives, such as nickel, +[^2018]:). This is prompting manufacturers to look for alternatives, such as nickel, -vanadium, and zinc (Tchetvertakov 2018 ). At the same time, a significant propor- +vanadium, and zinc (Tchetvertakov [^2018]:). At the same time, a significant propor- tion of these price fluctuations are attributable to non-industrial factors, such as @@ -71567,7 +66155,7 @@ recycling. The collection systems and infrastructure required to recycle metals renewable energy technologies are not well established. For example, although sil- -ver has an overall recycling rate of 30–50% (Graedel et al. 2011 ), almost no recy- +ver has an overall recycling rate of 30–50% (Graedel et al. [^2011]:), almost no recy- cling of silver from PV panels occurs, because most recycling of PV panels focuses @@ -71581,11 +66169,10 @@ cement. It should also be noted that the recycling of some key energy materials, such as rare earths in magnets, does not offer significant cost savings or environ- -mental benefits over their extraction from primary resources (McLellan et al. 2013 ). +mental benefits over their extraction from primary resources (McLellan et al. [^2013]:). -``` The establishment of effective collection networks is important for recycling. -``` + Collection networks must be easily understood and must provide easily accessible deposit mechanisms. Recycling can be both informal and formal, and whereas in @@ -71624,7 +66211,6 @@ Cobalt Initiative, the Cobalt Institute, the Initiative for Responsible Mining ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 455 ``` @@ -71642,12 +66228,11 @@ conflict and environmental damage. However, cobalt is not explicitly mentioned i the Dodd-Frank Act. -``` International resource governance that looks beyond renewable energy and -``` + beyond a single commodity focus is increasingly recognised as a missing area in -environmental policy (Ali et al. 2017 ). The transition to renewable energy and the +environmental policy (Ali et al. [^2017]:). The transition to renewable energy and the associated requirements for resources to support this transition could be a catalyst @@ -71695,8 +66280,7 @@ FINAL_APPROVED_2.original.pdf Cano, Z.P., Banham, D., Ye, S., Hintennach, A., Lu, J., Fowler, M. and Chen, Z., 2018. Batteries and fuel cells for emerging electric vehicle markets. Nature Energy, 3(4), p.279. -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios 456 @@ -71742,7 +66326,7 @@ Tchetvertakov, G. (2018). “Panasonic and Tesla seek to remove cobalt from elec tric car batteries.” Retrieved 15 September 2018, from https://smallcaps.com.au/ panasonic-tesla-remove-cobalt-electric-car-battery/. The Silver Institute and Thomson Reuters, 2018. World Silver Survey 2018. Available at: https:// -[http://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/WSS-2018.pdf](http://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/WSS-2018.pdf) +[www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/WSS-2018.pdf](www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/WSS-2018.pdf) Tokimatsu, K., H. Wachtmeister, B. McLellan, S. Davidsson, S. Murakami, M. Höök, R. Yasuoka and M. Nishio (2017). “Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2 °C target.” Applied Energy 207: 494–509. @@ -71757,7 +66341,6 @@ renewables.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 49: 655–671. ``` D. Giurco et al. ``` - ``` 457 ``` @@ -71776,7 +66359,7 @@ Zimmermann, T., Rehberger, M. and Gößling-Reisemann, S., 2013. Material flows large scale deployment of wind energy in Germany. Resources, 2(3), pp.303–334. **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -71786,14 +66369,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios - +[^11]: Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios © The Author(s) 2019 459 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 12 +**Chapter 12** #### Implications of the Developed Scenarios @@ -71802,50 +66383,30 @@ https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12 **Malte Meinshausen** **Abstract** This section provides a summary of the implications of the developed - 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for global mean climate change. Specifically, we con- - -sider atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, radiative forcing, global-mean surface air - +sider atmospheric CO[^2]: concentrations, radiative forcing, global-mean surface air temperatures and sea level rise. The question addressed in this section is what the implications are for future climate - -change if the world were to follow the energy-related CO 2 emissions developed here, - -complemented by land-use CO 2 emissions and those of other greenhouses gases - -(GHGs). According to the high- emission scenario with unabated fossil fuel use, the - -world could experience 1400 ppm CO 2 concentrations by the end of 2100, which is - +change if the world were to follow the energy-related CO[^2]: emissions developed here, +complemented by land-use CO[^2]: emissions and those of other greenhouses gases +(GHGs). According to the high-emission scenario with unabated fossil fuel use, the +world could experience 1400 ppm CO[^2]: concentrations by the end of 2100, which is five times higher than the pre-industrial background concentration of 278 ppm. Our - -ice-core records have shown that over the last 850,000 years, the CO 2 concentrations - +ice-core records have shown that over the last 850,000 years, the CO[^2]: concentrations have only oscillated between approximately 180 ppm and 280 ppm. In fact, for the +last 10  million years on this planet, the CO[^2]: concentrations have probably not -last 10  million years on this planet, the CO 2 concentrations have probably not - -exceeded the CO 2 concentrations that our thirst for fossil fuels would propel the - +exceeded the CO[^2]: concentrations that our thirst for fossil fuels would propel the world into in just two centuries. -``` That is a dramatic change to the thin layer of atmosphere that wraps our planet. -``` Even if any climate change consequences that follow from this dramatic change in - -CO 2 concentrations are disregarded, the consequences will be dramatic. At atmo- - -spheric CO 2 concentrations above 900 ppm, the acidity level in the oceans will drop - +CO[^2]: concentrations are disregarded, the consequences will be dramatic. At atmo- +spheric CO[^2]: concentrations above 900 ppm, the acidity level in the oceans will drop below the so-called ‘aragonite saturation level’, which is the level required for coral - reefs and other organisms with calciferous shells to sustain their structures (Ricke - -et al. 2013 ). Therefore, without even considering ocean warming and the associated - +et al. [^2013]:). Therefore, without even considering ocean warming and the associated bleaching, this would mean the end of much marine life as we know it. M. Meinshausen (*) @@ -71853,194 +66414,118 @@ Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, Australia e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au - 460 **12.1 Background on the Investigated Scenarios** The international community uses various scenarios to explore these future changes - -to CO 2 , involving other GHGs and ultimately, temperature, precipitation changes, - +to CO[^2]:, involving other GHGs and ultimately, temperature, precipitation changes, and changes involving extreme events. Here, we compare the scenarios developed - in this study with the standard scenarios developed for the forthcoming - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. The - scenarios used in the forthcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report are the so-called - ‘SSP scenarios’. The full range of those nine SSP scenarios spans cases of unabated - fossil fuel use at the higher-emissions end to two scenarios at the lower-emission - end that are considered to be consistent with a 2  °C and 1.5  °C warming target. - These two scenarios are called ‘SSP1_26’ and ‘SSP1_19’, respectively. - -``` Both of those lower-emissions scenarios imply a substantial amount of biomass -``` -use for energy, combined with CCS, to draw down atmospheric CO 2 levels. This is - +use for energy, combined with CCS, to draw down atmospheric CO[^2]: levels. This is the key difference from the scenarios developed in the present study. Whereas we - -use a substantial amount of negative CO 2 emissions in the reforestation and forest - +use a substantial amount of negative CO[^2]: emissions in the reforestation and forest restoration options, our analysis does not depend on the assumption that biomass, - combined with CCS, must be used on large scale to achieve either the 2 °C or 1.5 °C - target. - -``` -If we do not rely on some negative CO 2 emission options, in particular biomass -``` +If we do not rely on some negative CO[^2]: emission options, in particular biomass and CCS, the questions are: (1) to what extent are those negative emissions created - -by other means (e.g., reforestation); or (2) whether CO 2 emissions can be reduced - +by other means (e.g., reforestation); or (2) whether CO[^2]: emissions can be reduced in the first place so that we do not need to rely on negative emissions options; or (3) -whether other non-CO 2 gases can be reduced even further to make negative CO 2 - +whether other non-CO[^2]: gases can be reduced even further to make negative CO2 emissions unnecessary. The scenarios developed in this study use all three options, -as outlined in the previous chapters. Not only will energy-related CO 2 emissions be - -radically reduced, CO 2 uptake via reforestation and forest restoration will also play - -an important role. This study takes a more conservative approach to non-CO 2 gases - +as outlined in the previous chapters. Not only will energy-related CO[^2]: emissions be +radically reduced, CO[^2]: uptake via reforestation and forest restoration will also play +an important role. This study takes a more conservative approach to non-CO[^2]: gases by being consistent with other stringent mitigation scenarios. Thereby, we ensure - that the feasibility constraints implicitly or explicitly set by other modelling frame- - works are not violated. -**12.2 Comparison of Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations** - +**12.2 Comparison of Atmospheric CO**[^2]: **Concentrations** **and Radiative Forcing** As mentioned above, unabated fossil fuel use over the last century and the twenty- - first century will dramatically change the oceans, simply by creating an atmospheric - -CO 2 concentration beyond that present on the Earth for the last 10 million years. - +CO[^2]: concentration beyond that present on the Earth for the last 10 million years. Currently, we just exceeded the historical maximum level of 400 ppm atmospheric - -CO 2 and are continuing to add 2–3 ppm a year. If we consider the most stringent - +CO[^2]: and are continuing to add 2–3 ppm a year. If we consider the most stringent mitigation scenario used in the preparation of the forthcoming IPCC Sixth - Assessment Report, SSP1_19, then we will reach 400 ppm concentrations again in - the latter half of the century. Staying below 400 ppm is a prerequisite in the long - term for remaining below 2 °C or reaching 1.5 °C warming. ``` M. Meinshausen ``` - ``` 461 ``` -``` -Figure 12.1 shows the global CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O concentrations under the key -``` +Figure 12.1 shows the global CO[^2]:, CH[^4]:, and N[^2]:O concentrations under the key RCP and SSP scenarios and the three scenarios developed as part of this study. Our - -1.5 °C scenario is clearly lower in terms of its CO 2 concentrations than the lowest - +1.5 °C scenario is clearly lower in terms of its CO[^2]: concentrations than the lowest SSP scenario, SSP1_19, for practically the entire twenty-first century (upper panel). - -Only towards the end of the twenty-first century do the strongly negative CO 2 emis- - -sions in the SSP1_19 scenario bring the CO 2 concentration closer towards our - +Only towards the end of the twenty-first century do the strongly negative CO[^2]: emis- +sions in the SSP1_19 scenario bring the CO[^2]: concentration closer towards our 1.5 °C scenario. - -``` Aggregating all the greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions by their radiative forc- -``` ing, and expressing the resulting radiative forcing again as if it were only caused by - -CO 2 yields the so-called ‘CO 2 equivalence concentrations’. In Fig. 12.2, the CO 2 - +CO[^2]: yields the so-called ‘CO[^2]: equivalence concentrations’. In Fig. 12.2, the CO2 equivalence concentrations for the four RCP scenarios, the nine SSP scenarios, and - three scenarios developed in this study are shown. The reference scenario in this - study is quite similar to both the RCP6.0 and SSP4_60 scenarios, providing a - -medium-high reference case. The radiative forcing and CO 2 equivalence concentra- - +medium-high reference case. The radiative forcing and CO[^2]: equivalence concentra- tion of the 2 °C scenario of this study is actually quite closely aligned with the lower SSP1_19 scenario, at least initially until the middle of the second half of this cen- -tury. Thereafter, the net negative CO 2 emissions implied by the SSP1_19 scenario - +tury. Thereafter, the net negative CO[^2]: emissions implied by the SSP1_19 scenario lead to stronger reductions in radiative forcing than the 2.0 °C scenario of our study. However, our lower 1.5 °C scenario first undercuts the radiative forcing trajectory - of the SSP1_19 scenario, but then ends up at a similar radiative forcing level by 2100. - -``` -Figure 12.2 shows CO 2 equivalence concentrations (upper panel) and radiative -``` +Figure 12.2 shows CO2 equivalence concentrations (upper panel) and radiative forcing (lower panel) of the main scenarios used in IPCC Assessment Reports and - this study’s scenarios. The RCP scenarios (shown in thin dotted lines) underlie the - IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the so-called ‘SSP scenarios’ provide the main - basis for the scenarios considered in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The three - scenarios developed in this study are shown in thick blue lines. -**12.3 Comparison of Cumulative CO 2 Emissions** - -Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, cumulative CO 2 emissions have been +**12.3 Comparison of Cumulative CO**[^2]: **Emissions** +Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, cumulative CO[^2]: emissions have been introduced as a key metric into the international climate debate. Every tonne of - -additional CO 2 emitted will add to that cumulative burden and warm the planet for - +additional CO[^2]: emitted will add to that cumulative burden and warm the planet for the next hundreds and in fact thousands of years. The only way to halt further global - -warming is to halt cumulative CO 2 emissions, which means bringing the annual CO 2 - +warming is to halt cumulative CO[^2]: emissions, which means bringing the annual CO2 emissions to basically zero levels. Only with net negative emissions can the tem- - perature thermostat of the Earth be dialled back again. Therefore, while achieving - such net negative emissions is tremendously challenging, it is the only way to main- - tain long-term climate change at levels close to those of today or well below - 1.5 °C. Few scenarios include very strong near-term reductions and no substantially - -negative CO 2 emissions and can limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, with no or - +negative CO[^2]: emissions and can limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, with no or only a slight overshoot (IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C). In this study, as well as - -very strong near-term reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions, we have used a - +very strong near-term reductions in energy-related CO[^2]: emissions, we have used a range of land-use-based sequestration options. These are not unambitious, as -12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change - +[^12]: Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change 462 ``` 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 +``` +``` 250 ``` ``` @@ -72072,7 +66557,7 @@ range of land-use-based sequestration options. These are not unambitious, as ``` ``` 750 -Global CO 2 Concentrations +Global CO2 Concentrations ``` ``` Global mean atmospheric CO @@ -72094,6 +66579,8 @@ O concentrations (ppb) 2 ``` ``` 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 +``` +``` 500 ``` ``` @@ -72119,10 +66606,12 @@ O concentrations (ppb) 2 ``` ``` 4,500 -Global CH 4 Concentrations +Global CH4 Concentrations ``` ``` 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 +``` +``` 260 ``` ``` @@ -72148,29 +66637,37 @@ Global CH 4 Concentrations ``` ``` 420 -Global N 2 O Concentrations ``` ``` -1.5C2.0C -5.0CRCP26 -RCP45RCP60 +Global N2O Concentrations +``` +``` +1.5C +2.0C +5.0C +RCP26 +RCP45 +RCP60 RCP85 ``` ``` -SSP1_19SSP1_26 +SSP1_19 +SSP1_26 SSP2_45 -SSP3_70SSP3_70_LowNTCF -SSP4_34SSP4_60 -SSP5_34_OSSSP5_85 +SSP3_70 +SSP3_70_LowNTCF +SSP4_34 +SSP4_60 +SSP5_34_OS +SSP5_85 ``` -**Fig. 12.1** Global CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O concentrations under various scenarios. The so-called SSP +**Fig. 12.1** Global CO[^2]:, CH[^4]: and N[^2]:O concentrations under various scenarios. The so-called SSP scenarios are going to inform the Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC, the RCP scenarios are the previous generation of scenarios and the LDF scenarios are those developed in this study ``` M. Meinshausen ``` - ``` 463 ``` @@ -72205,7 +66702,7 @@ M. Meinshausen Co2 Equivalence Concentrations (ppm) ``` ``` -CO 2 Equivalence concentrations +CO2 Equivalence concentrations ``` ``` 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 @@ -72246,9 +66743,8 @@ CO 2 Equivalence concentrations ``` Effecive Radiative Forcing (W/m2) ``` -``` -Radiative Forcing -``` +**Radiative Forcing** + ``` 1.5C 2.0C @@ -72269,30 +66765,21 @@ SSP4_60 SSP5_34_OS SSP5_85 ``` -**Fig. 12.2** CO 2 equivalence concentrations and radiative forcing of main IPCC scenarios for the +**Fig. 12.2** CO[^2]: equivalence concentrations and radiative forcing of main IPCC scenarios for the forthcoming Sixth Assessment (so-called SSP scenarios), the RCP scenarios underlying the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report and the LDF scenarios developed in this study -12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change - +[^12]: Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change 464 outlined in previous chapters. In fact, in the case of the 1.5 °C scenario, they practi- - cally require that the Earth’s forests be returned to their pre-industrial coverage—a - substantial challenge given the widespread deforestation that has occurred over the - -last 100  years. By the end of the century, the cumulative CO 2 emissions beyond - -levels will constitute around 300 GtCO 2 (see Fig. 12.3). - -``` +last 100  years. By the end of the century, the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions beyond +levels will constitute around 300 GtCO[^2]: (see Fig. 12.3). Without going into too much detail about why cumulative emission numbers dif- -``` -fer between various studies, the key point is that CO 2 emissions must be reduced to - +fer between various studies, the key point is that CO[^2]: emissions must be reduced to zero. Otherwise, cumulative emissions and global warming will continue to increase. Therefore, there is no way to avoid emissions-free electricity, transport, and indus- @@ -72309,23 +66796,14 @@ and complete cessation of all fossil fuel use. This is the simple and powerful l of carbon budgets. -``` -Global cumulative CO 2 emissions for the scenarios developed in this study (thick -``` +Global cumulative CO[^2]: emissions for the scenarios developed in this study (thick blue lines) and other literature-reported scenarios from the RCP and SSP sets. It is - clear that this study’s 2.0 °C pathway initially reaches a similar cumulative emis- - -sions level as the SSP1_19 scenario, before the cumulative CO 2 emissions are - -reduced again in SSP1_19 with large-scale net negative CO 2 emissions via bioen- - -ergy with carbon capture and storage. In contrast, the reduction of cumulative CO 2 - +sions level as the SSP1_19 scenario, before the cumulative CO[^2]: emissions are +reduced again in SSP1_19 with large-scale net negative CO[^2]: emissions via bioen- +ergy with carbon capture and storage. In contrast, the reduction of cumulative CO2 emissions in this study’s 1.5 °C scenarios starts to plateau much earlier (by 2035) - and are then reduced by land -based sequestration options, such as reforestation and - forest restoration (thick blue line at the lower end). The stated blue 1.5 °C carbon ``` @@ -72381,9 +66859,7 @@ Cumulative Carbon Emissions (GtC ``` ``` 2,500 -``` -``` -Global Cumulative CO 2 Emissions LDF_REF +Global Cumulative CO2 Emissions LDF_REF ``` ``` RCP26 @@ -72427,7 +66903,7 @@ SSP5_85 Cumulative Carbon Emissions (GtCO ``` ``` -) 2 +)2 ``` ``` 1.5C Carbon Budget @@ -72441,195 +66917,117 @@ Cumulative Carbon Emissions so far (until 2011) ``` M. Meinshausen ``` - ``` 465 ``` budget range is the effective central value presented in the recent IPCC Special - -Report on 1.5 °C warming.^1 +Report on 1.5 °C warming.[^1] **12.4 Implications for Temperature and Sea-Level Rise** This section examines the implications of the three scenarios developed in this - study for the probabilistic global mean temperature and sea level rise. Based on the - latest version 7 of the reduced complexity carbon cycle and climate model MAGICC, - we can derive a range of projections for every scenarios that provides a good mea- - sure of the projection uncertainties over the twenty-first century. We ran this model - 600 times for each scenario, varying wide ranges of feedback and forcing parame- - ters. For the sea-level rise projections, we used the new sea-level rise module of - -MAGICC7, as described by Nauels et al. ( 2017 ) and drove that with our probabilis- - +MAGICC7, as described by Nauels et al. ([^2017]:) and drove that with our probabilis- tic temperature projections. We did not include the recent finding that possible - Antarctic ice sheet instability could lead to a much greater sea-level rise this cen- - tury. These extra contributions to sea-level rise are also assumed to affect the higher - end of the projections for high-emission scenarios, and do not therefore change the - sea-level rise projections of the lower-emissions scenarios. - -``` A key question regarding future temperature projections is whether the scenarios -``` will stay below the envisaged 1.5  °C and 2.0  °C warming levels relative to pre- - industrial levels. When answering this question in terms of the consistency of the - 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, the uncertainty in historical reconstructions of - temperatures must play a role. The latest IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C warming - -estimated from an average of four studies that the difference between early- industrial - +estimated from an average of four studies that the difference between early-industrial (1850–1900) and recent surface air temperature levels (2006–2015) was 0.97 °C. If - we accept here the slightly oversimplified assumption that the 1850–1900 tempera- - ture levels can be equated with pre-industrial temperatures, we can evaluate the - difference towards a 1.5 °C warming level, namely 0.53 °C. Note that this distance - could be shorter—a matter of ongoing scientific debate. - -``` Anyway, the median temperatures for the (lowest) 1.5 °C Scenario in this study -``` do indeed—somewhat by design—reach the 1.5 °C target level by 2100. This means - that after a slight overshoot, there will be a 50% chance by 2100 that the global - mean temperature is at or below 1.5  °C warming—and without the widespread - deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). -(^1) The IPCC Special Report estimates for a 0.53 °C distance of the 1.5 °C degree target from the -2006–2015 level, a carbon budget of 560 GtCO 2 from 1 January 2018 onwards. Reduced by 100 -GtCO 2 for additional Earth System Feedbacks (see Table 2.2 in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C) -and adding approximately 270 GtCO 2 emissions for the period from 2011 to 2017, the central +[^1]:The IPCC Special Report estimates for a 0.53 °C distance of the 1.5 °C degree target from the +2006–2015 level, a carbon budget of 560 GtCO[^2]: from 1 January 2018 onwards. Reduced by 100 +GtCO[^2]:for additional Earth System Feedbacks (see Table 2.2in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C) +and adding approximately 270 GtCO[^2]: emissions for the period from 2011 to 2017, the central estimate for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 °C warming as stated by IPCC is approximately -730 GtCO 2 from 2011 onwards. This is for a definition of historical warming that is based on a + +730 GtCO[^2]: from 2011 onwards. This is for a definition of historical warming that is based on a consistent surface air temperature estimate over the land and oceans. A further reduction of -approximately 150 GtCO 2 would result, if we take into account that the IPCC carbon budget esti- +approximately 150 GtCO[^2]: would result, if we take into account that the IPCC carbon budget esti- mate refer to a 1850–1900 early industrial reference period for the 1.5 °C warming, rather than a 1750 pre-industrial reference period (which makes approximately a 0.1 °C difference, with +− 0.1 °C uncertainty). -12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change +[^12]: Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change 466 -``` In the case of our 2 °C Scenario, the centric 66% range is almost entirely below -``` the 2 °C warming level, which means that the chance of maintaining temperature - change below 2 °C is 80%–85%, in the modelling framework used. This warming - level and likelihood fits well with the adapted Paris Agreement target, which shifted - from a ‘below 2 °C’ to a ‘well below 2°C’ formulation. - -``` Of course, there are several uncertainties that are not addressed in those probabi- -``` listic temperature projections. Therefore, future investigations might shift the - estimates for a 50%, lower, or higher chance of staying below 1.5 °C warming level - relative to the pre-industrial level. - -``` Figure 12.4 shows the global mean surface air temperature projections, and their -``` 66% and 90% ranges, for the three scenarios developed in this study. The reference - scenario is shown in red, the 2.0 °C pathway is shown in blue, and the 1.5 °C path- - -way is shown in green. For historical temperatures, a mixture between ocean- surface - +way is shown in green. For historical temperatures, a mixture between ocean-surface and land-surface air temperatures is shown, namely the HadCRUT4 dataset. The - most recent estimate by the IPCC of the pre-industrial air surface temperature levels - is that they were around 0.97 °C below the 2006–2015 levels. The median projec- - tions of the three scenarios are shown in thick solid lines. - -``` As a first approximation, the global mean temperature is proportional to the sum -``` -of all historical CO 2 emissions. In a similar vein, sea-level rise is the sum over all - +of all historical CO[^2]: emissions. In a similar vein, sea-level rise is the sum over all past temperature rises relative to the pre-industrial level. Combining these two approximations yields the rule of thumb that sea-level rise is proportional to the -double integral of CO 2 emissions. Therefore, whereas temperatures are relatively +double integral of CO[^2]: emissions. Therefore, whereas temperatures are relatively -agnostic about when CO 2 emissions occurred, sea-level rise will be higher the lon- - -ger ago the CO 2 emission occurred. - -``` +agnostic about when CO[^2]: emissions occurred, sea-level rise will be higher the lon- +ger ago the CO[^2]: emission occurred. This proportionality has implications for our scenarios. As we saw previously, -``` our scenarios are relatively low in terms of radiative forcing early in the twenty-first - century compared with the lower scenarios of the SSP and RCP sets. Towards the - end of this century, the strongly net negative emissions of the SSP1_19 scenario will - cause radiative forcing (and approximate temperature) to be similar under SSP1_19 - and our 1.5 °C scenario. That our scenarios will first entail lower and then similar - forcing and temperature levels suggests that the implied sea-level rise will be lower - for the second half of the twenty-first century and beyond, even though the 2100 - temperature level might be similar. This is a clear benefit of our scenarios and should - be investigated further in the future. - -``` Thus, there is clearly an advantage in undertaking concerted early action rather a -``` slower decline in emissions followed by strong negative emissions. This is impor- - tant. However, in the larger scheme of things, it is clearly a second-order effect. - Even under the strongest mitigation scenarios, we cannot expect sea-level rise to - stop any time soon. To halt sea-level rise in the 21st or even the twenty-second cen- - -tury, we will require massively negative CO 2 emissions, drawing back out of the - -atmosphere a lot of the CO 2 that we emitted this century. Therefore, even under our - +tury, we will require massively negative CO[^2]: emissions, drawing back out of the +atmosphere a lot of the CO[^2]: that we emitted this century. Therefore, even under our low 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, the expected sea-level rise by 2100 will be above - 30 cm relative to the 2010 levels—and will continue to rise to 2100 (Fig. 12.5). ``` M. Meinshausen ``` - ``` 467 ``` **Fig. 12.4** Global-mean surface air temperature projections -12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change - +[^12]: Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change 468 @@ -72638,7 +67036,6 @@ M. Meinshausen ``` M. Meinshausen ``` - ``` 469 ``` @@ -72652,7 +67049,7 @@ long-term sea level rise projections-the MAGICC sea level model v2. 0. Geoscient Development, 10(6). **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -72662,14 +67059,12 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change - +[^12]: Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change © The Author(s) 2019 471 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_13 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, -###### Chapter 13 +**Chapter 13** #### Discussion, Conclusions @@ -72687,9 +67082,8 @@ chapters. The key findings as well as the research limitations and further resea requirements are given for following topics: -``` Renewable energy potential mapping, Transport scenario and long-term energy -``` + scenario development, power sector analysis, employment and mineral resource implications for the 2.0C and 1.5C scenarios and non-energy GHG scenarios, @@ -72728,84 +67122,46 @@ industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. ``` ``` -UNFCCC ( 2015 ) +UNFCCC (2015) ``` - 472 The Paris Agreement’s goals require significant change in how we use and produce - energy on a global level. This energy transition must be started immediately and - without further delay, and concerns energy-producing industry and utilities as well - as every energy consumer—from the industry level down to the residential sector. A - combination of energy efficiency and the use of renewable energies will involve - new business concepts for the energy sector, which will require entirely new poli- - cies that provide a new market framework. The implementation of new technologies - and business concepts will include policy changes on the community level as well - as by national governments and international organizations. While the 2.0  °C - Scenario allows for a 3–5 years transition period in which to implement policy mea- - sures, the 1.5 °C Scenario allows no further delay but requires an immediate start, - at the latest in 2020. Therefore, the 1.5 °C Scenario presented in this book provides - a technical pathway that assumes and allows no political delay, and may therefore - be seen as a technical benchmark scenario. - -``` However, this energy transition cannot be seen in isolation. To stay within the -``` Paris Agreement Goal requires reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission that - -are greater than can be delivered by the energy transition alone (see Chap. 4). - +are greater than can be delivered by the energy transition alone (see Chap. [^4]:). However, there are technical and logistical limits to how fast new technologies can - be implemented. The establishment of efficient transport systems and industry pro- - cesses, or simply the provision of required renewable energy and storage technolo- - gies will require a minimum time. Production capacities must increase significantly, - people must be trained, and existing buildings must be retro-fitted. Infrastructural - changes, such as smart power grids, must be planed, construction permits must be - issued. The energy transition will require political determination and public accep- - tance. Therefore, the planning process will require resolute stakeholder involve- - ment. Furthermore, a fundamental shift in today’s resource-intensive lifestyles - seems unavoidable if we are to limit global warming. In particular, the way con- - sumption and mobility are organized in developed countries today will challenge - planetary boundaries to the extreme if they remain at their current levels. - -``` During the development of the energy scenario pathways, it became clear that -``` even the most ambitious ‘man-on-the-moon’ program—if focussed only on the - energy sector—would not be enough. Therefore, the political framework required to - implement the Paris Agreement on national levels must also take the land-use sec- - -tor, as well as the main GHGs, methane, N 2 O, and fluorinated gases, into account. - -``` +tor, as well as the main GHGs, methane, N[^2]:O, and fluorinated gases, into account. The following sections present the main findings and lessons of this research proj- -``` + ect, and highlight its limitations and further research requirements. Finally, we pro- vide policy recommendations for the energy sector in order to implement the -energy @@ -72815,17 +67171,15 @@ scenarios. **13.1 Findings and Limitations—Modelling** The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the research, with - priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous chapters. ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 473 ``` -**_13.1.1 Key Findings—Renewable Energy Potential Mapping_** +**13.1.1 Key Findings—Renewable Energy Potential Mapping** Various research projects have analysed renewable energy potentials and all have in @@ -72845,9 +67199,9 @@ regions and 75 sub-regions examined had sufficient renewable energy resources to meet the regional needs. -**_13.1.2 Limitations and Further Research—Renewable Energy_** +**13.1.2 Limitations and Further Research—Renewable Energy** -**_Potential_** +**Potential** The quality of data varies significantly across the regions and especially detailed @@ -72867,7 +67221,7 @@ are generally better at these elevations. Therefore, further research is require open source data for onshore and offshore wind data at the 100 m level. -**_13.1.3 Key Findings—Transport Scenario_** +**13.1.3 Key Findings—Transport Scenario** Transport modelling has shown that the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C pathways can be met @@ -72898,8 +67252,7 @@ so for the 1.5 °C pathway. This will apply particularly to the car use habits OECD countries. In essence, definite limitations on transport activities and modal -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 474 @@ -72915,9 +67268,9 @@ long-sighted infrastructural and transport policy framework settings on both int and intra-governmental levels. -**_13.1.4 Limitations and Further Research_** +**13.1.4 Limitations and Further Research** -**_Requirement—Transport_** +**Requirement—Transport** The statistical databases for several world regions on transport activities and fleet @@ -72939,7 +67292,7 @@ research is required to refine the coupling of renewable energy potentials, tran infrastructure upgrades, and the expansion of on-board energy storage usage. -**_13.1.5 Key Findings—Long-Term Energy Scenario_** +**13.1.5 Key Findings—Long-Term Energy Scenario** The 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C scenarios both represent ambitious pathways that require @@ -72976,7 +67329,6 @@ $GDP in the ‘Industry’ sector, which will decrease by 65% in OECD regions an ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 475 ``` @@ -72984,9 +67336,8 @@ technology change and replacement strategies and supporting regulatory and gover nance measures to trigger huge investments for its realization. -``` On the energy supply side, considerable contributions in the future are assumed -``` + from wind and solar power, electrification and synthetic fuel use in transport and heating, sustainable biomass use, especially for co-generation and biofuels, and dis- @@ -73045,37 +67396,30 @@ global growth in the demand for energy services, at least for as long as fossil gies dominate the energy supply structures. -``` Besides the structural similarities between both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, -``` + one main difference between them is the rate of transformation: To maintain the average global temperature increase due to climate change below 1.5 °C, the trans- formation must be accomplished as fast as technically possible. The trend in increas- -ing global energy-related CO 2 emissions must be reversed as soon as possible (in - +ing global energy-related CO[^2]: emissions must be reversed as soon as possible (in the early 2020s, at the latest) and emissions must be reduced by 70% in 2035 and by 85% in 2040 (compared with emission levels in 1990). Every single year without - significant emission reductions on the global level will dramatically reduce our - chance to confine global warming to 1.5  °C.  In contrast, in the 2.0  °C Scenario, - emission reductions in 2035 may be in the order of 40% and 65% in 2040, leaving - a little more time for the transition process. -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 476 -**_13.1.6 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—_** +**13.1.6 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—** -**_Long-Term Energy Scenario_** +**Long-Term Energy Scenario** The 1.5  °C Scenario may seem more difficult than similarly ambitious scenarios @@ -73095,9 +67439,8 @@ climate damage and the greater will be the technical and economic challenges tha will be encountered in the energy system transformation. -``` The coarse regional resolution of such global scenarios does not allow sufficient -``` + account to be taken of sub-regional differences in energy demand and the character- istic and favourable possibilities of sustainable supply. However, it can provide @@ -73124,9 +67467,8 @@ yses can then form the basis for the further investigation of the economic impli tions of these pathways. -``` Another limitation of this approach is that the economic, technical, and market -``` + assumptions made probably have limited consistency. Carbon, fuel, and technology costs are assumed independently of the assumptions regarding overall economic @@ -73143,7 +67485,7 @@ is whether the current market mechanisms are capable of supporting the fundamen- tal paradigm shift of this target-oriented energy transition. -**_13.1.7 Key Findings—Power Sector Analysis_** +**13.1.7 Key Findings—Power Sector Analysis** Although there are significant differences across all the regions and sub-regions @@ -73158,7 +67500,6 @@ heating sectors. Higher loads will require the adaptation of power-lines and ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 477 ``` @@ -73209,9 +67550,9 @@ and synthetic fuels will be beneficial. The hydrogen produced can be used for th management of demand, and hydrogen-fuelled power plants can provide valu- able dispatch services. ``` -**_13.1.8 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—_** +**13.1.8 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—** -**_Power Sector Analysis_** +**Power Sector Analysis** Measured load curves for regions, countries, or states/provinces are often unavail- @@ -73227,105 +67568,65 @@ range. However, verification was not possible for several regions. Therefore, ou analysis may over- or underestimate the current loads and therefore the future -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 478 projections of loads as well. Therefore, the optimal ratio of maximum load to - installed variable capacity requires further research. - -``` More research is also required to verify the thesis of an optimal ratio between the -``` variable generation and maximum load, because the sample size of this study was - not sufficient to ensure validity. Furthermore, the optimal mix of solar and wind - requires better meteorological data and actual measured load profiles. Access to - more detailed data to calculate more case studies is vital to determining the possible - optimal combination of wind and solar. -**_13.1.9 Key Findings—Non-energy Scenarios_** +**13.1.9 Key Findings—Non-energy Scenarios** The key finding of the land-use-related emission scenarios is that a dedicated con- - certed effort to sequester carbon by reforestation and forest restoration could re- - establish the terrestrial carbon stock of pre-industrial times. That would undoubtedly - come with multiple co-benefits, but would not be without challenges. After all, there - is a reason why humans in the various corners of the planet pursued deforestation, - whether for short-term and short-sighted gains or to establish agricultural areas that - fed an increasing population. Therefore, land-use conflicts and trade offs are an - -inherent part of future mitigation actions, whether CO 2 sequestration is pursued by - +inherent part of future mitigation actions, whether CO[^2]: sequestration is pursued by reforestation sequestration or by some biomass and CCS use. Nevertheless, the - -important result of this study is that the addition of land-use CO 2 and other GHG - +important result of this study is that the addition of land-use CO[^2]: and other GHG emission pathways to energy-related scenarios yields scenarios that stay below or -get below 1.5 °C warming without a reliance on massive net negative CO 2 emission - +get below 1.5 °C warming without a reliance on massive net negative CO[^2]: emission potentials towards the second half of this century. -``` -Going beyond the land-use CO 2 emission pathways that we sketched for a series -``` +Going beyond the land-use CO[^2]: emission pathways that we sketched for a series of sequestration options, we also designed trajectories for all the other GHGs and - aerosols. An unprecedented wealth of scenario information is now available thanks - to the recent concerted efforts of the larger integrated assessment community. - Designing a novel method here, the Generalized Quantile Walk method, we were - -able to distil non-CO 2 pathways from this rich scenario database—in a way that - -respects the correlations and dependencies between energy-related CO 2 and other - +able to distil non-CO[^2]: pathways from this rich scenario database—in a way that +respects the correlations and dependencies between energy-related CO[^2]: and other gas emissions. This is not only a new methodological advance in scenario research, - -but also key to the proper estimation of the climate effects of the energy-related CO 2 - +but also key to the proper estimation of the climate effects of the energy-related CO2 scenarios designed in the main part of this study. -**_13.1.10 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—_** - -**_Non-energy Scenarios_** +**13.1.10 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—** +**Non-energy Scenarios** There are a number of limitations associated with the derived non-energy-related - emission trajectories. Possibly the most important opportunity for future research - will involve a more fine-grained look at land-use-based sequestration options in ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 479 ``` various countries and biomes. This study assumed only a rather coarse approxima- - tion of the available land areas, sequestration rates, and cumulative changes in land - carbon stocks to estimate the potential and time trajectories of those reforestation, - forest restoration, agroforestry, and other land-based sequestration options. - -``` -In terms of the non-CO 2 emission trajectories, this study relied heavily on the -``` +In terms of the non-CO[^2]: emission trajectories, this study relied heavily on the collective wisdom embodied within a large set of literature-reported scenarios. Although we have designed probably the most advanced method to distil that @@ -73336,86 +67637,54 @@ pathways, this meta-analytical approach is not without its limitations. In parti a bottom-up energy-system and land-use/agricultural model must be able to esti- -mate methane and N 2 O emissions from various agricultural activities in a more - +mate methane and N[^2]:O emissions from various agricultural activities in a more coherent way, which could provide results on a regional level. Such regionally and sectorally specific information would, in turn, allow the examination of various - -mitigation options for non-CO 2 emissions. This bottom-up modelling capacity is - +mitigation options for non-CO[^2]: emissions. This bottom-up modelling capacity is missing from our meta-analytical approach. -**_13.1.11 Key Findings—Employment Analysis_** +**13.1.11 Key Findings—Employment Analysis** The occupational employment analysis was developed in 2018 to improve the data- - base for the ‘just transition’ concept. Not only is the number of jobs that will be - created or lost as a result of a global or regional energy transition important, but also - the specific occupations that will be to develop a socially sound transition. This - analysis breaks new grounds because very little information has been available. - However, the results indicate that even within the seven occupation types, job losses - are the exception and almost all trades will gain more jobs. - -``` Very specialized jobs, such as machine operators in coal mines, will be lost and -``` there will be no replacement. Therefore, a detailed analysis of all sectors is required - to identify those highly specialized tasks and to develop re-training possibilities. -**_13.1.12 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—_** - -**_Employment Analysis_** +**13.1.12 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—** +**Employment Analysis** The data available on the detailed employment requirements for renewable energies - are very limited. Although there are some data for solar PV and onshore and off- - shore wind, there are almost none for concentrated solar power plants or geothermal - energy. Furthermore, occupational surveys of the heating and energy efficiency sec- - tors are required. -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 480 -**_13.1.13 Key Findings—Mineral Resource Analysis_** +**13.1.13 Key Findings—Mineral Resource Analysis** Lithium sees the highest projected increase from mined ore of around 40 times cur- - rent production to above 80 times current production should future technologies be - introduced without recycling. - -``` Cumulative primary lithium demand by 2050 for the majority of scenarios is -``` above current reserves of lithium except for the “potential recycling” scenario but - less than known resources. The scenarios anticipate a scale up in resource explora- - tion, discovery and production for primary resources to meet demand—assuming - lithium-ion batteries continue to dominate as the chemistry of choice. It is important - that future mines be responsibly developed and that battery designs be compatible - with circular-economy thinking. Significant infrastructure for reuse and recycling - will need to be developed to achieve high rates of lithium recycling. - -``` For cobalt, future scenarios exceed currently known reserves and approach cur- -``` + rently known resources in 2050. Given the concentrated supply source from the Democratic Republic of Congo, this will continue to keep pressure on exploring @@ -73434,46 +67703,32 @@ because of supply limitations, the social and environmental challenges provide a further driver for increasing recycling. -``` For silver, the potential of materials efficiency (using less silver per GW solar PV -``` + panel) has potential to reduce demand owing to the long lifetimes of PV panels. Under some scenarios using future technology with recycling, the levels of silver demand are similar to current production. -**_13.1.14 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—_** - -**_Mineral Resource Analysis_** +**13.1.14 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—** +**Mineral Resource Analysis** This study focuses only on the metal demand for renewable energy (generation and - storage) and transport and does not consider other demands for these metals. - However, it is expected that with the increase in renewable energy, renewable energy - technologies will consume a greater share of these metals and it is anticipated that - this growth will have significant influence on overall market dynamics, including - influencing prices, which may feedback to efforts to reduce material intensity and - invest in reuse and recycling infrastructure. - -``` Promoting the transition to circular economy for both renewable energy and -``` resource cycles; and adopting a systems view that considers available supply as well - as social and environmental factors is critically important. To support sustainable - development goals, both the primary and secondary sources of the resources ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 481 ``` @@ -73507,7 +67762,7 @@ jurisdictions. That said, it is assumed that the Paris Agreement will be the glo basis. -**_13.2.1 Energy_** +**13.2.1 Energy** The energy sector is not a homogeneous sector but is highly diverse. Therefore, @@ -73523,16 +67778,14 @@ indirectly connected via resources and energy markets, policy interventions can have different effects. -``` The basic principles for the development of the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios -``` + derive from the long-term experiences with scenario development of the authorship team, and have led to a ‘seven-step logic’. -``` This logic extends from the definition of the final state of the energy systems in -``` + the long-term future to the key drivers of the energy demand and the energy effi- ciency potentials, a technological analysis of supply and demand and the market @@ -73541,35 +67794,29 @@ development potential, and the specific policy measures required to implement a theoretical concept in the real market-place. -``` The seven steps are: -``` + 1. Define the maximum carbon budget and other targets, milestones, and con- -``` straints to achieve the climate goal; -``` + 2. Define the renewable energy resource potentials and limits within a space- -``` constrained environment; -``` -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 482 3. Identify the economic and societal drivers of demand; 4. Define the efficiency potentials and energy intensities by energy service and -``` sector; -``` + 5. Establish time lines and narratives for the technology implementation on the -``` end-user and supply sides; -``` + 6. Estimate the infrastructure needs, generation costs, and other effects; 7. Identify the required policies and discuss the policy options. @@ -73585,14 +67832,13 @@ effectively develop energy policy and its regulative interventions. The most imp tant interventions to accelerate the energy transition are: -- Renewable energy targets and incentives for their deployment and expansion; -- Internalization of external costs by carbon tax or surcharge; -- Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies; -- Accelerated replacement of fossil and inefficient technologies. +• Renewable energy targets and incentives for their deployment and expansion; +• Internalization of external costs by carbon tax or surcharge; +• Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies; +• Accelerated replacement of fossil and inefficient technologies. -``` Renewable energy targets are vital to accelerate the deployment of renewable -``` + energy. Experiences of the past two decades clearly show the effectiveness of renew- able energy policy development. The Renewable Policy Network for the 21st @@ -73603,7 +67849,7 @@ Century (REN21) states in their annual market analysis, Renewables 2018, that mitment to renewable energy deployment. Targets are enacted for economy-wide -energy development as well as for specific sectors” (REN21-GSR- 2018 ). To achieve +energy development as well as for specific sectors” (REN21-GSR-[^2018]:). To achieve these goals, innovation processes must be initiated, markets developed, and @@ -73613,20 +67859,19 @@ able. It is important in this context to guarantee investment security and to en long-term but appropriate revenues. -``` Climate change leads to a number of types of environmental damage. Carbon -``` + emissions lead to climate change. Therefore, it is vital to put a price on carbon to internalize the external costs. Carbon-pricing schemes can be established as _cap-_ -_and- trade_ schemes or taxes. Carbon pricing is not sufficient on its own to achieve +_and-trade_ schemes or taxes. Carbon pricing is not sufficient on its own to achieve the objective of the Paris Agreement, and many leading international agencies and institutions argue that a much more concerted and widespread global take-up of -carbon pricing will be necessary (Carbon Tracker 2018 ). To make carbon pricing an +carbon pricing will be necessary (Carbon Tracker [^2018]:). To make carbon pricing an efficient measure, the price of carbon must be sufficient to reflect the environmental @@ -73634,9 +67879,8 @@ damage it causes and it must be reliable. Therefore, a minimum price should be implemented to provide planning security. -``` Subsidies of fossil fuels counteract any efforts to make energy efficiency and -``` + renewable energy competitive. According to the International Energy Agency, the total amount of global fossil fuel subsidies was estimated to be around US$260 bil- @@ -73644,24 +67888,22 @@ total amount of global fossil fuel subsidies was estimated to be around US$260 b ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 483 ``` -lion in 2016 (IEA-DB 2018 ). The governments of the G20 and the Asia-Pacific +lion in 2016 (IEA-DB [^2018]:). The governments of the G20 and the Asia-Pacific -Economic Cooperation (APEC) reached an agreement to “ _rationalize and phase out_ +Economic Cooperation (APEC) reached an agreement to “_rationalize and phase out_ _over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful con-_ -_sumption_ ” (OECD-IEA 2018 ). +_sumption_” (OECD-IEA [^2018]:). -``` Setting legally binding national targets for 100% renewable energy pathways -``` + will lead to an orderly phase-out of fossil fuels. This is vital in planning the socio- -economic effects of the energy transition (see Chap. 10). Supporting measures to +economic effects of the energy transition (see Chap. [^10]:). Supporting measures to achieve the replacement of fossil and inefficient technologies and energy sources @@ -73677,9 +67919,8 @@ definitions and stringent enforcement of international standards will accelerate implementation of the best available technologies in the industry. -``` Both a minimum price on carbon and the immediate phase-out of fossil fuel -``` + subsidies must be implemented in order to support the global energy transition. Policy support for technology innovation is another important measure to create the @@ -73690,7 +67931,7 @@ basis for the energy transition processes. To reduce the energy demands of existing building stock and new buildings, con- -stantly most stringent energy demand standards (= _building energy codes_ ) are +stantly most stringent energy demand standards (= _building energy codes_) are required for all building types and across all countries. The goal must be to achieve @@ -73708,7 +67949,7 @@ strategy that balances insulation, local heating systems, and the grid-connected supply in regions with a significant space-heating demand. An analysis of building -energy codes in 15 countries (Young 2014 ) distinguished between residential and +energy codes in 15 countries (Young [^2014]:) distinguished between residential and commercial buildings and listed six technical requirement categories, ranging from @@ -73728,8 +67969,7 @@ fuel subsidies, could support efforts to save energy. However, they must be acco panied by social policies. -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 484 @@ -73749,7 +67989,7 @@ gies are required. These efficiency standards must be dynamic and designed to su port competition for the most efficient design. The Japanese front runner system -(IEA-PM 2018 ) is a positive example of dynamic efficiency standards. Labelling +(IEA-PM [^2018]:) is a positive example of dynamic efficiency standards. Labelling programmes and purchase subsidies for the best available technologies can support @@ -73786,42 +68026,26 @@ battery recharging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructures for road vehicles. In passenger car and truck context, direct subsidies or tax incentives for electric -vehicles will speed up the electrification of fleets. CO 2 taxation, road tolls, and con- - +vehicles will speed up the electrification of fleets. CO[^2]: taxation, road tolls, and con- gestion charges could be applied, in addition to parking-space management schemes to reduce road traffic and thus internal combustion engines in a transition to car- - reduced cities. The assignment of parking lots and driving lanes exclusively to elec- - tric cars will speed the phase-out of internal combustion engines. - -``` -In aviation, measures could include the taxation of jet fuel and CO 2 , the applica- -``` +In aviation, measures could include the taxation of jet fuel and CO[^2]:, the applica- tion of an emission trading scheme on the direct and indirect climate effects of flight - at high altitudes. Direct and indirect public subsidies for carriers and airports should - be abolished (investment and operational grants should be reduced and funding - should be allocated to a competitive and attractive rail system). - -``` All measures curtailing the use of individual passenger transport should be -``` accompanied by the promotion of ubiquitous, fast, comfortable, and price- - competitive public transport systems, ride and car sharing and on-demand services - (especially for less densely populated semi-urban and rural areas). Last but not - least, an attractive and safe infrastructure for bicycles and e-bikes will help to reduce ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 485 ``` @@ -73837,9 +68061,8 @@ reducing the need for motorized individual mobility and freeing up space for rec ation and green spaces. -``` Cities in developed countries should aim to transform their transport systems -``` + (often) from passenger-car-centred urban structures and policies towards pedes- trian-, bike-, and mass-transport-friendly environments. The often densely popu- @@ -73908,8 +68131,7 @@ vital to push the technological limits further. Innovative approaches to the rea tion of material cycles and recycling options, the recovery of industrial waste heat, -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 486 @@ -73925,7 +68147,7 @@ with significant shares of variable power generation. The traditional electricit ket framework has been developed for central suppliers operating dispatchable and -limited dispatchable (‘ _base load_ ’) thermal power plants. The electricity markets of +limited dispatchable (‘_base load_’) thermal power plants. The electricity markets of the future will be dominated by variable generation without marginal/fuel costs. The @@ -73951,9 +68173,8 @@ guided by the objective of facilitating the integration of renewables and to ach 100% renewable electricity system. -``` To establish fair and equal market conditions, the ownership of electrical grids -``` + should be completely disengaged from the ownership of power-generation and sup- ply companies. To encourage new businesses, relevant grid data must be made avail- @@ -73966,9 +68187,8 @@ grids. Legislation to support and expand demand-side management is required to create new markets for the flexibility services for renewable electricity integration. -``` Public funding for research and development is required to further develop and -``` + implement technologies that allow variable power integration, such as smart grid technology, virtual power stations, low-cost storage solutions, and responsive @@ -73989,7 +68209,6 @@ database, viewed October 2018, https://www.iea.org/statistics/resources/energysu ``` S. Teske et al. ``` - ``` 487 ``` @@ -74000,15 +68219,15 @@ OECD-IEA (2018), OECD website, OECD-IEA analysis of fossil fuels and other suppo October 2018, [http://www.oecd.org/site/tadffss/](http://www.oecd.org/site/tadffss/) UNFCCC (2015), The Paris Agreement, website, viewed October 2018, https://unfccc.int/ process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement -REN21-GSR (2018), REN21, 2018, Renewables 2018, Global Status Report, Paris/France, [http://](http://) -[http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/](http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/) page 20 +REN21-GSR (2018), REN21, 2018, Renewables 2018, Global Status Report, Paris/France, http:// +[www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/](www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/) [page](page) [20](20) Young, R. (2014), Young, Rachel, Global Approaches: A Comparison of Building Energy Codes in 15 Countries, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2014 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, https://aceee.org/files/proceedings/2014/data/ papers/3-606.pdf **Open Access** This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 -International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, +International License ([http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. @@ -74018,8 +68237,7 @@ included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is no statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. -13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations - +[^13]: Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations ``` 489 @@ -74058,34 +68276,28 @@ CdTd Cadmium Telluride (Solar photovoltaic cell technology) CEDS Community Emissions Data System (for Historical Climate rel- -``` evant Emissions) -``` + CHP Combine Heat and Power (=co-generation) CIGS Copper Indium Gallium Di-Selenide (Solar photovoltaic cell -``` technology) -``` + CMIP6 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (computer cli- -``` mate model) -``` + CO2 Carbon Dioxide CSP Concentrated Solar Power DBFZ Deutsches Biomasse Forschungs-Zentrum (German Bio Mass -``` Research Centre) -``` -© The Author(s) 2019 -S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_ , -https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2 +© The Author(s) 2019 +S. Teske (ed.), _Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals_, 490 @@ -74101,21 +68313,18 @@ EJ Exa-Joule ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for -``` Electricity -``` + ESM Earth System Model (computer climate model) ETP Energy Technology Perspectives (publication of the International -``` Energy Agency) -``` + EU-WEEE Waste electronic equipment  – Environment, Directive of the -``` European Commission -``` + EV Electric Vehicles FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations @@ -74163,9 +68372,8 @@ ILO International Labour Organization IMAGE Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (computer -``` climate model) -``` + IMO International Maritime Organization INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions @@ -74183,7 +68391,6 @@ LDV Light Duty Vehicle (= passenger car) ``` Annex ``` - ``` 491 ``` @@ -74191,16 +68398,14 @@ LIB lithium Ion Batteries MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate -``` Change -``` + MEPC Marine Environment Protection Committee MESSAGE Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General -``` Environmental Impact (computer energy model) -``` + MJ/year Mega-Joule per year MW Megawatt @@ -74229,9 +68434,8 @@ PPP Purchasing Power Parity (economic term) PRIMAP Potsdam Real-time Integrated Model for probabilistic Assessment -``` of emissions Paths (computer climate model) -``` + PV Photovoltaic QGIS Quantum - Global Information System (open source software) @@ -74258,9 +68462,8 @@ TYNDP Ten-Year-Network Development Plan UIC Union Internationale des Chemins de fer; International union of -``` raiways -``` + UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USA-EPA United States of America – Environmental Protection Agency @@ -74271,16 +68474,13 @@ UTCE Union for the Coordination of the Transmission of Electricity UTS-ISF University of Technology Sydney  – Institute for Sustainable -``` Futures -``` + VRE Variable Renewable Energy WEO World Energy Outlook (publication of the International Energy -``` Agency) -``` + Annex - diff --git a/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement/compactLines.json b/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement/compactLines.json index 56e5ba7..46ed250 100644 --- a/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement/compactLines.json +++ b/examples/Achieving-The-Paris-Climate-Agreement/compactLines.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "pages": 535, "items": 53922, - "groupedItems": 31671, - "changes": 8737, + "groupedItems": 31813, + "changes": 8633, "schema": [ { "name": "line", @@ -113,7 +113,8 @@ {"page":14,"change":"Addition","str":"Simplified land-based sequestration model","line":42,"x":244.35969543,"y":190.55479430999995,"width":"128.48","height":"6.30","fontName":["ZXJECP+WxxcwrPbwmqvLsfyjjHelveticaBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":14,"change":"Addition","str":"complementing reforestation, restoration, ","line":43,"x":260.61068725,"y":201.34100340999996,"width":"118.42","height":"6.42","fontName":["XUKSAT+ClsxfyFwlhkgKwwbqbHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":14,"change":"Addition","str":"sustainable use and agroforestry options. 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b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes.md index b73a9e3..56dded7 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes.md +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes.md @@ -2,50 +2,31 @@ # HOLMES - -SIR ARTHUR IGNATIUS +#### SIR ARTHUR IGNATIUS ## CONAN DOYLE -### 1859– +``` +1859–1930 +``` +### THE ADVENTURES OF -THE ADVENTURES OF - -SHERLOCK HOLMES +### SHERLOCK HOLMES ``` Published by PDFREEBOOKS.ORG Public domain. No rights reserved. ``` - - -## Contents - -- A Scandal In Bohemia -- The Red-Headed League -- A Case Of Identity -- The Boscombe Valley Mystery -- The Five Orange Pips -- The Man With The Twisted Lip -- The Adventure Of The Blue Carbuncle -- The Adventure Of The Speckled Band -- The Adventure Of The Engineer’s Thumb -- The Adventure Of The Noble Bachelor -- The Adventure Of The Beryl Coronet -- The Adventure Of The Copper Beeches - - - - -Adventure I +#### Adventure I ## A Scandal In Bohemia -I +##### I -# T +## T -OSherlock Holmes she is alwaysthewoman. I have seldom heard him +O Sherlock Holmes she is always the woman. I have seldom heard him mention her under any other name. In his eyes she eclipses and pre- dominates the whole of her sex. It was not that he felt any emotion akin to love for Irene Adler. All emotions, and that one particularly, @@ -74,11 +55,6 @@ by the official police. From time to time I heard some vague account of his doin of his summons to Odessa in the case of the Trepoff murder, of his clearing up of the singular tragedy of the Atkinson brothers at Trincomalee, and finally of the -### 3 - - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 4 - mission which he had accomplished so delicately and successfully for the reigning family of Holland. Beyond these signs of his activity, however, which I merely shared with all the readers of the daily press, I knew little of my former friend and @@ -124,9 +100,6 @@ you see, my double deduction that you had been out in vile weather, and that you had a particularly malignant boot-slitting specimen of the London slavey. As to your practice, if a gentleman walks into my rooms smelling of iodoform, with - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 5 - a black mark of nitrate of silver upon his right forefinger, and a bulge on the right side of his top-hat to show where he has secreted his stethoscope, I must be dull, indeed, if I do not pronounce him to be an active member of the medical profes- @@ -171,9 +144,6 @@ a crown a packet. It is peculiarly strong and stiff.” “Peculiar—that is the very word,” said Holmes. “It is not an English paper at all. Hold it up to the light.” - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 6 - I did so, and saw a large “E” with a small “g,” a “P,” and a large “G” with a small “t” woven into the texture of the paper. “What do you make of that?” asked Holmes. @@ -219,9 +189,6 @@ trimmed at the tops with rich brown fur, completed the impression of barbaric op lence which was suggested by his whole appearance. He carried a broad-brimmed hat in his hand, while he wore across the upper part of his face, extending down - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 7 - past the cheekbones, a black vizard mask, which he had apparently adjusted that very moment, for his hand was still raised to it as he entered. From the lower part of the face he appeared to be a man of strong character, with a thick, hanging lip, @@ -266,9 +233,6 @@ lable agitation. Then, with a gesture of desperation, he tore the mask from his and hurled it upon the ground. “You are right,” he cried; “I am the King. Why should I attempt to conceal it?” - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 8 - “Why, indeed?” murmured Holmes. “Your Majesty had not spoken before I was aware that I was addressing Wilhelm Gottsreich Sigismond von Ormstein, Grand Duke of Cassel-Felstein, and hereditary King of Bohemia.” @@ -314,9 +278,6 @@ tion.” “You have compromised yourself seriously.” “I was only Crown Prince then. I was young. I am but thirty now.” - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 9 - “It must be recovered.” “We have tried and failed.” “Your Majesty must pay. It must be bought.” @@ -362,9 +323,6 @@ Kramm.” “I tell you that I would give one of the provinces of my kingdom to have that photograph.” - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 10 - “And for present expenses?” The King took a heavy chamois leather bag from under his cloak and laid it on the table. @@ -380,7 +338,7 @@ good news for you. And good-night, Watson,” he added, as the wheels of the roy brougham rolled down the street. “If you will be good enough to call to-morrow afternoon at three o’clock I should like to chat this little matter over with you.” -II +##### II At three o’clock precisely I was at Baker Street, but Holmes had not yet returned. The landlady informed me that he had left the house shortly after eight o’clock in @@ -408,9 +366,6 @@ obliged to lie back, limp and helpless, in the chair. “It’s quite too funny. I am sure you could never guess how I employed my morning, or what I ended by doing.” - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 11 - “I can’t imagine. I suppose that you have been watching the habits, and perhaps the house, of Miss Irene Adler.” “Quite so; but the sequel was rather unusual. I will tell you, however. I left the @@ -456,9 +411,6 @@ are to understand the situation.” to Briony Lodge, and a gentleman sprang out. He was a remarkably handsome man, dark, aquiline, and moustached—evidently the man of whom I had heard. He - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 12 - appeared to be in a great hurry, shouted to the cabman to wait, and brushed past the maid who opened the door with the air of a man who was thoroughly at home. “He was in the house about half an hour, and I could catch glimpses of him @@ -504,9 +456,6 @@ me laughing just now. It seems that there had been some informality about their license, that the clergyman absolutely refused to marry them without a witness of some sort, and that my lucky appearance saved the bridegroom from having to sally - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 13 - out into the streets in search of a best man. The bride gave me a sovereign, and I mean to wear it on my watch-chain in memory of the occasion.” “This is a very unexpected turn of affairs,” said I; “and what then?” @@ -552,9 +501,6 @@ to throw, and will, at the same time, raise the cry of fire. You quite follow me “It is nothing very formidable,” he said, taking a long cigar-shaped roll from his pocket. “It is an ordinary plumber’s smoke-rocket, fitted with a cap at either - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 14 - end to make it self-lighting. Your task is confined to that. When you raise your cry of fire, it will be taken up by quite a number of people. You may then walk to the end of the street, and I will rejoin you in ten minutes. I hope that I have made @@ -600,9 +546,6 @@ to think neither. Women are naturally secretive, and they like to do their own secreting. Why should she hand it over to anyone else? She could trust her own guardianship, but she could not tell what indirect or political influence might be - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 15 - brought to bear upon a business man. Besides, remember that she had resolved to use it within a few days. It must be where she can lay her hands upon it. It must be in her own house.” @@ -648,9 +591,6 @@ lamps had been lit, but the blinds had not been drawn, so that I could see Holme he lay upon the couch. I do not know whether he was seized with compunction at that moment for the part he was playing, but I know that I never felt more heartily - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 16 - ashamed of myself in my life than when I saw the beautiful creature against whom I was conspiring, or the grace and kindliness with which she waited upon the in- jured man. And yet it would be the blackest treachery to Holmes to draw back @@ -696,9 +636,6 @@ overpowering impulse, and I have more than once taken advantage of it. In the case of the Darlington substitution scandal it was of use to me, and also in the Arnsworth Castle business. A married woman grabs at her baby; an unmarried - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 17 - one reaches for her jewel-box. Now it was clear to me that our lady of to-day had nothing in the house more precious to her than what we are in quest of. She would rush to secure it. The alarm of fire was admirably done. The smoke and shouting @@ -728,7 +665,7 @@ peared to come from a slim youth in an ulster who had hurried by. “I’ve heard that voice before,” said Holmes, staring down the dimly lit street. “Now, I wonder who the deuce that could have been.” -III +##### III I slept at Baker Street that night, and we were engaged upon our toast and coffee in the morning when the King of Bohemia rushed into the room. @@ -743,9 +680,6 @@ and looking eagerly into his face. “Then that will simplify matters.” We descended and started off once more for Briony Lodge. - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 18 - “Irene Adler is married,” remarked Holmes. “Married! When?” “Yesterday.” @@ -782,7 +716,7 @@ all three read it together. It was dated at midnight of the preceding night and this way: ``` -“MYDEARMR. SHERLOCKHOLMES,—You really did it very +“MY DEAR MR. SHERLOCK HOLMES,—You really did it very well. You took me in completely. Until after the alarm of fire, I had not a suspicion. But then, when I found how I had betrayed myself, I began to think. I had been warned against you months ago. I had @@ -792,9 +726,6 @@ me reveal what you wanted to know. Even after I became suspicious, I found it hard to think evil of such a dear, kind old clergyman. But, you know, I have been trained as an actress myself. Male costume ``` - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 19 - ``` is nothing new to me. I often take advantage of the freedom which it gives. I sent John, the coachman, to watch you, ran up stairs, got @@ -816,7 +747,7 @@ dear Mr. Sherlock Holmes, ``` ``` Very truly yours, -IRENENORTON, ne A ́ DLER.” +IRENE NORTON, ne A ́ DLER.” ``` “What a woman—oh, what a woman!” cried the King of Bohemia, when we had all three read this epistle. “Did I not tell you how quick and resolute she was? @@ -841,9 +772,6 @@ The King stared at him in amazement. “I thank your Majesty. Then there is no more to be done in the matter. I have the honour to wish you a very good-morning.” He bowed, and, turning away without - -### ADVENTURE I. A SCANDAL IN BOHEMIA 20 - observing the hand which the King had stretched out to him, he set off in my company for his chambers. And that was how a great scandal threatened to affect the kingdom of Bohemia, @@ -852,14 +780,13 @@ used to make merry over the cleverness of women, but I have not heard him do it of late. And when he speaks of Irene Adler, or when he refers to her photograph, it is always under the honourable title of the woman. - -Adventure II +#### Adventure II ## The Red-Headed League -# I +## I -HADcalled upon my friend, Mr. Sherlock Holmes, one day in the autumn +HAD called upon my friend, Mr. Sherlock Holmes, one day in the autumn of last year and found him in deep conversation with a very stout, florid- faced, elderly gentleman with fiery red hair. With an apology for my intrusion, I was about to withdraw when Holmes pulled me abruptly into @@ -890,11 +817,6 @@ daring than any effort of the imagination.” otherwise I shall keep on piling fact upon fact on you until your reason breaks down under them and acknowledges me to be right. Now, Mr. Jabez Wilson here -### 21 - - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 22 - has been good enough to call upon me this morning, and to begin a narrative which promises to be one of the most singular which I have listened to for some time. You have heard me remark that the strangest and most unique things are very often @@ -940,9 +862,6 @@ You have worked with it, and the muscles are more developed.” “Well, the snuff, then, and the Freemasonry?” “I won’t insult your intelligence by telling you how I read that, especially as, - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 23 - rather against the strict rules of your order, you use an arc-and-compass breastpin.” “Ah, of course, I forgot that. But the writing?” “What else can be indicated by that right cuff so very shiny for five inches, and @@ -965,7 +884,7 @@ sir.” I took the paper from him and read as follows: ``` -“TOTHERED-HEADEDLEAGUE: On account of the bequest of +“TO THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE: On account of the bequest of the late Ezekiah Hopkins, of Lebanon, Pennsylvania, U. S. A., there is now another vacancy open which entitles a member of the League to a salary of 4 pounds a week for purely nominal services. All red- @@ -988,9 +907,6 @@ Wilson, mopping his forehead; “I have a small pawnbroker’s business at Cobur Square, near the City. It’s not a very large affair, and of late years it has not done more than just give me a living. I used to be able to keep two assistants, but now - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 24 - I only keep one; and I would have a job to pay him but that he is willing to come for half wages so as to learn the business.” “What is the name of this obliging youth?” asked Sherlock Holmes. @@ -1036,9 +952,6 @@ interfere very much with one’s other occupations.’ has not been over-good for some years, and an extra couple of hundred would have been very handy. - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 25 - “ ‘Tell me all about it,’ said I. “ ‘Well,’ said he, showing me the advertisement, ‘you can see for yourself that the League has a vacancy, and there is the address where you should apply for @@ -1084,9 +997,6 @@ behind which sat a small man with a head that was even redder than mine. He said a few words to each candidate as he came up, and then he always managed to find some fault in them which would disqualify them. Getting a vacancy did not seem - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 26 - to be such a very easy matter, after all. However, when our turn came the little man was much more favourable to me than to any of the others, and he closed the door as we entered, so that he might have a private word with us. @@ -1132,9 +1042,6 @@ pecially Thursday and Friday evening, which is just before pay-day; so it would suit me very well to earn a little in the mornings. Besides, I knew that my assistant was a good man, and that he would see to anything that turned up. - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 27 - “ ‘That would suit me very well,’ said I. ‘And the pay?’ “ ‘Is 4 pounds a week.’ “ ‘And the work?’ @@ -1180,9 +1087,6 @@ I never dared to leave the room for an instant, for I was not sure when he might come, and the billet was such a good one, and suited me so well, that I would not risk the loss of it. - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 28 - “Eight weeks passed away like this, and I had written about Abbots and Arche- ry and Armour and Architecture and Attica, and hoped with diligence that I might get on to the B’s before very long. It cost me something in foolscap, and I had pretty @@ -1197,7 +1101,7 @@ He held up a piece of white cardboard about the size of a sheet of note-paper. It read in this fashion: ``` -THERED-HEADEDLEAGUE +THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE IS DISSOLVED. October 9, 1890. @@ -1228,9 +1132,6 @@ moved out yesterday.’ “ ‘Oh, at his new offices. He did tell me the address. Yes, 17 King Edward Street, near St. Paul’s.’ - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 29 - “I started off, Mr. Holmes, but when I got to that address it was a manufactory of artificial knee-caps, and no one in it had ever heard of either Mr. William Morris or Mr. Duncan Ross.” @@ -1275,9 +1176,6 @@ said he. “Have you ever observed that his ears are pierced for earrings?” “And has your business been attended to in your absence?” “Nothing to complain of, sir. There’s never very much to do of a morning.” - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 30 - “That will do, Mr. Wilson. I shall be happy to give you an opinion upon the subject in the course of a day or two. To-day is Saturday, and I hope that by Monday we may come to a conclusion.” @@ -1309,7 +1207,7 @@ the morning. It was a poky, little, shabby-genteel place, where four lines of di two-storied brick houses looked out into a small railed-in enclosure, where a lawn of weedy grass and a few clumps of faded laurel-bushes made a hard fight against a smoke-laden and uncongenial atmosphere. Three gilt balls and a brown board -with “JABEZWILSON” in white letters, upon a corner house, announced the place +with “JABEZ WILSON” in white letters, upon a corner house, announced the place where our red-headed client carried on his business. Sherlock Holmes stopped in front of it with his head on one side and looked it all over, with his eyes shining brightly between puckered lids. Then he walked slowly up the street, and then @@ -1323,9 +1221,6 @@ here to the Strand.” “Smart fellow, that,” observed Holmes as we walked away. “He is, in my judgment, the fourth smartest man in London, and for daring I am not sure that he - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 31 - has not a claim to be third. I have known something of him before.” “Evidently,” said I, “Mr. Wilson’s assistant counts for a good deal in this mys- tery of the Red-headed League. I am sure that you inquired your way merely in @@ -1371,9 +1266,6 @@ was never so truly formidable as when, for days on end, he had been lounging in armchair amid his improvisations and his black-letter editions. Then it was that the lust of the chase would suddenly come upon him, and that his brilliant reasoning - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 32 - power would rise to the level of intuition, until those who were unacquainted with his methods would look askance at him as on a man whose knowledge was not that of other mortals. When I saw him that afternoon so enwrapped in the music at @@ -1418,9 +1310,6 @@ taking his heavy hunting crop from the rack. “Watson, I think you know Mr. Jon of Scotland Yard? Let me introduce you to Mr. Merryweather, who is to be our companion in to-night’s adventure.” - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 33 - “We’re hunting in couples again, Doctor, you see,” said Jones in his consequen- tial way. “Our friend here is a wonderful man for starting a chase. All he wants is an old dog to help him to do the running down.” @@ -1466,9 +1355,6 @@ We had reached the same crowded thoroughfare in which we had found our- selves in the morning. Our cabs were dismissed, and, following the guidance of Mr. Merryweather, we passed down a narrow passage and through a side door, - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 34 - which he opened for us. Within there was a small corridor, which ended in a very massive iron gate. This also was opened, and led down a flight of winding stone steps, which terminated at another formidable gate. Mr. Merryweather stopped to @@ -1514,9 +1400,6 @@ lantern.” that, as we were a partie carre, you might have your rubber after all. But I see that the enemy’s preparations have gone so far that we cannot risk the presence of - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 35 - a light. And, first of all, we must choose our positions. These are daring men, and though we shall take them at a disadvantage, they may do us some harm unless we are careful. I shall stand behind this crate, and do you conceal yourselves behind @@ -1562,9 +1445,6 @@ a shock of very red hair. Jump, Archie, jump, and I’ll swing for it!” Sherlock Holmes had sprung out and seized the intruder by the collar. The - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 36 - other dived down the hole, and I heard the sound of rending cloth as Jones clutched at his skirts. The light flashed upon the barrel of a revolver, but Holmes’ hunting crop came down on the man’s wrist, and the pistol clinked upon the stone floor. @@ -1610,9 +1490,6 @@ and together they manage to secure his absence every morning in the week. From the time that I heard of the assistant having come for half wages, it was obvious to me that he had some strong motive for securing the situation.” - -### ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 37 - “But how could you guess what the motive was?” “Had there been women in the house, I should have suspected a mere vulgar intrigue. That, however, was out of the question. The man’s business was a small @@ -1653,16 +1530,15 @@ He shrugged his shoulders. “Well, perhaps, after all, it is of some little use remarked. “ ‘L’homme c’est rien—l’œuvre c’est tout,’ as Gustave Flaubert wrote to George Sand.” - -Adventure III +#### Adventure III ## A Case Of Identity -### “ +“ -# M +## M -Ydear fellow,” said Sherlock Holmes as we sat on either side of the fire +Y dear fellow,” said Sherlock Holmes as we sat on either side of the fire in his lodgings at Baker Street, “life is infinitely stranger than anything which the mind of man could invent. We would not dare to conceive the things which are really mere commonplaces of existence. If we @@ -1693,11 +1569,6 @@ or landlady. The crudest of writers could invent nothing more crude.” taking the paper and glancing his eye down it. “This is the Dundas separation case, and, as it happens, I was engaged in clearing up some small points in connection -### 38 - - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 39 - with it. The husband was a teetotaler, there was no other woman, and the conduct complained of was that he had drifted into the habit of winding up every meal by taking out his false teeth and hurling them at his wife, which, you will allow, is not @@ -1743,9 +1614,6 @@ much angry as perplexed, or grieved. But here she comes in person to resolve our doubts.” As he spoke there was a tap at the door, and the boy in buttons entered to - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 40 - announce Miss Mary Sutherland, while the lady herself loomed behind his small black figure like a full-sailed merchant-man behind a tiny pilot boat. Sherlock Holmes welcomed her with the easy courtesy for which he was remarkable, and, @@ -1791,9 +1659,6 @@ I had expected to see Sherlock Holmes impatient under this rambling and in- consequential narrative, but, on the contrary, he had listened with the greatest con- centration of attention. - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 41 - “Your own little income,” he asked, “does it come out of the business?” “Oh, no, sir. It is quite separate and was left me by my uncle Ned in Auckland. It is in New Zealand stock, paying 4½ per cent. Two thousand five hundred pounds @@ -1839,9 +1704,6 @@ come to the house any more.” visitors if he could help it, and he used to say that a woman should be happy in her own family circle. But then, as I used to say to mother, a woman wants her own - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 42 - circle to begin with, and I had not got mine yet.” “But how about Mr. Hosmer Angel? Did he make no attempt to see you?” “Well, father was going off to France again in a week, and Hosmer wrote and @@ -1887,9 +1749,6 @@ ask about father; but they both said never to mind about father, but just to tel afterwards, and mother said she would make it all right with him. I didn’t quite like that, Mr. Holmes. It seemed funny that I should ask his leave, as he was only - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 43 - a few years older than me; but I didn’t want to do anything on the sly, so I wrote to father at Bordeaux, where the company has its French offices, but the letter came back to me on the very morning of the wedding.” @@ -1935,9 +1794,6 @@ heavily into it. “I shall glance into the case for you,” said Holmes, rising, “and I have no doubt that we shall reach some definite result. Let the weight of the matter rest upon - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 44 - me now, and do not let your mind dwell upon it further. Above all, try to let Mr. Hosmer Angel vanish from your memory, as he has done from your life.” “Then you don’t think I’ll see him again?” @@ -1983,9 +1839,6 @@ it.” a brickish red. Her jacket was black, with black beads sewn upon it, and a fringe of little black jet ornaments. Her dress was brown, rather darker than coffee colour, - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 45 - with a little purple plush at the neck and sleeves. Her gloves were greyish and were worn through at the right forefinger. Her boots I didn’t observe. She had small round, hanging gold earrings, and a general air of being fairly well-to-do in @@ -2031,9 +1884,6 @@ tweed trousers, with brown gaiters over elastic-sided boots. Known to have been employed in an office in Leadenhall Street. Anybody bringing—” “That will do,” said Holmes. “As to the letters,” he continued, glancing over - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 46 - them, “they are very commonplace. Absolutely no clue in them to Mr. Angel, save that he quotes Balzac once. There is one remarkable point, however, which will no doubt strike you.” @@ -2078,9 +1928,6 @@ was so dear to him. “Yes. It was the bisulphate of baryta.” “No, no, the mystery!” I cried. - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 47 - “Oh, that! I thought of the salt that I have been working upon. There was never any mystery in the matter, though, as I said yesterday, some of the details are of interest. The only drawback is that there is no law, I fear, that can touch the @@ -2126,9 +1973,6 @@ these days on the typewriter and its relation to crime. It is a subject to which devoted some little attention. I have here four letters which purport to come from the missing man. They are all typewritten. In each case, not only are the ‘e’s’ - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 48 - slurred and the ‘r’s’ tailless, but you will observe, if you care to use my magnify- ing lens, that the fourteen other characteristics to which I have alluded are there as well.” @@ -2174,9 +2018,6 @@ keeps off other lovers by making love himself.” “It was only a joke at first,” groaned our visitor. “We never thought that she would have been so carried away.” - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 49 - “Very likely not. However that may be, the young lady was very decidedly carried away, and, having quite made up her mind that her stepfather was in France, the suspicion of treachery never for an instant entered her mind. She was flattered @@ -2222,9 +2063,6 @@ have some strong object for his curious conduct, and it was equally clear that t only man who really profited by the incident, as far as we could see, was the step- father. Then the fact that the two men were never together, but that the one always - -### ADVENTURE III. A CASE OF IDENTITY 50 - appeared when the other was away, was suggestive. So were the tinted spectacles and the curious voice, which both hinted at a disguise, as did the bushy whiskers. My suspicions were all confirmed by his peculiar action in typewriting his signa- @@ -2249,15 +2087,14 @@ Voil tout!” snatches a delusion from a woman.’ There is as much sense in Hafiz as in Horace, and as much knowledge of the world.” - -Adventure IV +#### Adventure IV ## The Boscombe Valley Mystery -# W +## W ``` -Ewere seated at breakfast one morning, my wife and I, when the maid +E were seated at breakfast one morning, my wife and I, when the maid brought in a telegram. It was from Sherlock Holmes and ran in this way: ``` @@ -2290,12 +2127,6 @@ rolled them all into a gigantic ball and tossed them up onto the rack. “Have you heard anything of the case?” he asked. “Not a word. I have not seen a paper for some days.” -``` -51 -``` - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 52 - “The London press has not had very full accounts. I have just been looking through all the recent papers in order to master the particulars. It seems, from what I gather, to be one of those simple cases which are so extremely difficult.” @@ -2340,9 +2171,6 @@ with a gun under his arm. To the best of his belief, the father was actually in at the time, and the son was following him. He thought no more of the matter until he heard in the evening of the tragedy that had occurred. - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 53 - “The two McCarthys were seen after the time when William Crowder, the game-keeper, lost sight of them. The Boscombe Pool is thickly wooded round, with just a fringe of grass and of reeds round the edge. A girl of fourteen, Patience @@ -2388,9 +2216,6 @@ to be gained out of this case.” been by no means obvious to Mr. Lestrade. You know me too well to think that I am boasting when I say that I shall either confirm or destroy his theory by means - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 54 - which he is quite incapable of employing, or even of understanding. To take the first example to hand, I very clearly perceive that in your bedroom the window is upon the right-hand side, and yet I question whether Mr. Lestrade would have @@ -2435,9 +2260,6 @@ I remarked. “So they have. And many men have been wrongfully hanged.” “What is the young man’s own account of the matter?” - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 55 - “It is, I am afraid, not very encouraging to his supporters, though there are one or two points in it which are suggestive. You will find it here, and may read it for yourself.” @@ -2484,9 +2306,6 @@ Witness: ‘He mumbled a few words, but I could only catch some allusion to a rat.’ The Coroner: ‘What did you understand by that?’ ``` - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 56 - ``` Witness: ‘It conveyed no meaning to me. I thought that he was delirious.’ @@ -2533,9 +2352,6 @@ This concluded the examination of the witness. “I see,” said I as I glanced down the column, “that the coroner in his concluding remarks was rather severe upon young McCarthy. He calls attention, and with - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 57 - reason, to the discrepancy about his father having signalled to him before seeing him, also to his refusal to give details of his conversation with his father, and his singular account of his father’s dying words. They are all, as he remarks, very @@ -2580,9 +2396,6 @@ young women that I have ever seen in my life. Her violet eyes shining, her lips parted, a pink flush upon her cheeks, all thought of her natural reserve lost in her overpowering excitement and concern. - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 58 - “Oh, Mr. Sherlock Holmes!” she cried, glancing from one to the other of us, and finally, with a woman’s quick intuition, fastening upon my companion, “I am so glad that you have come. I have driven down to tell you so. I know that James @@ -2628,9 +2441,6 @@ money.” “Yes, certainly.” “Thank you, Miss Turner. You have been of material assistance to me.” - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 59 - “You will tell me if you have any news to-morrow. No doubt you will go to the prison to see James. Oh, if you do, Mr. Holmes, do tell him that I know him to be innocent.” @@ -2676,9 +2486,6 @@ was more likely to be an attempt to explain how he met his fate. But what could it indicate? I cudgelled my brains to find some possible explanation. And then the incident of the grey cloth seen by young McCarthy. If that were true the murderer - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 60 - must have dropped some part of his dress, presumably his overcoat, in his flight, and must have had the hardihood to return and to carry it away at the instant when the son was kneeling with his back turned not a dozen paces off. What a tissue of @@ -2724,9 +2531,6 @@ all that he has suffered.” “Ah! who? I would call your attention very particularly to two points. One is that the murdered man had an appointment with someone at the pool, and that - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 61 - the someone could not have been his son, for his son was away, and he did not know when he would return. The second is that the murdered man was heard to cry ’Cooee!’ before he knew that his son had returned. Those are the crucial points @@ -2772,9 +2576,6 @@ maid, at Holmes’ request, showed us the boots which her master wore at the tim of his death, and also a pair of the son’s, though not the pair which he had then had. Having measured these very carefully from seven or eight different points, Holmes - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 62 - desired to be led to the court-yard, from which we all followed the winding track which led to Boscombe Pool. Sherlock Holmes was transformed when he was hot upon such a scent as this. @@ -2820,9 +2621,6 @@ than to us. “These are young McCarthy’s feet. Twice he was walking, and once ran swiftly, so that the soles are deeply marked and the heels hardly visible. That bears out his story. He ran when he saw his father on the ground. Then here are - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 63 - the father’s feet as he paced up and down. What is this, then? It is the butt-end of the gun as the son stood listening. And this? Ha, ha! What have we here? Tiptoes! tiptoes! Square, too, quite unusual boots! They come, they go, they come @@ -2868,9 +2666,6 @@ London by the evening train.” “It is solved.” “Who was the criminal, then?” - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 64 - “The gentleman I describe.” “But who is he?” “Surely it would not be difficult to find out. This is not such a populous neigh- @@ -2916,9 +2711,6 @@ of Ballarat.” “It is obvious. And now, you see, I had narrowed the field down considerably. The possession of a grey garment was a third point which, granting the son’s state- - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 65 - ment to be correct, was a certainty. We have come now out of mere vagueness to the definite conception of an Australian from Ballarat with a grey cloak.” “Certainly.” @@ -2964,9 +2756,6 @@ of unusual strength of body and of character. His tangled beard, grizzled hair, outstanding, drooping eyebrows combined to give an air of dignity and power to his appearance, but his face was of an ashen white, while his lips and the corners - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 66 - of his nostrils were tinged with a shade of blue. It was clear to me at a glance that he was in the grip of some deadly and chronic disease. “Pray sit down on the sofa,” said Holmes gently. “You had my note?” @@ -3012,9 +2801,6 @@ had a wild, free life of it, sticking up a station from time to time, or stoppin wagons on the road to the diggings. Black Jack of Ballarat was the name I went under, and our party is still remembered in the colony as the Ballarat Gang. - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 67 - “One day a gold convoy came down from Ballarat to Melbourne, and we lay in wait for it and attacked it. There were six troopers and six of us, so it was a close thing, but we emptied four of their saddles at the first volley. Three of our boys @@ -3060,9 +2846,6 @@ I was already a dying and a desperate man. Though clear of mind and fairly stron of limb, I knew that my own fate was sealed. But my memory and my girl! Both could be saved if I could but silence that foul tongue. I did it, Mr. Holmes. I would - -### ADVENTURE IV. THE BOSCOMBE VALLEY MYSTERY 68 - do it again. Deeply as I have sinned, I have led a life of martyrdom to atone for it. But that my girl should be entangled in the same meshes which held me was more than I could suffer. I struck him down with no more compunction than if he @@ -3092,14 +2875,13 @@ counsel. Old Turner lived for seven months after our interview, but he is now de and there is every prospect that the son and daughter may come to live happily together in ignorance of the black cloud which rests upon their past. - -Adventure V +#### Adventure V ## The Five Orange Pips -# W +## W -HENI glance over my notes and records of the Sherlock Holmes cases +HEN I glance over my notes and records of the Sherlock Holmes cases between the years ‘82 and ‘90, I am faced by so many which present strange and interesting features that it is no easy matter to know which to choose and which to leave. Some, however, have already gained @@ -3130,11 +2912,6 @@ It was in the latter days of September, and the equinoctial gales had set in with exceptional violence. All day the wind had screamed and the rain had beaten against the windows, so that even here in the heart of great, hand-made London -### 69 - - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 70 - we were forced to raise our minds for the instant from the routine of life and to recognise the presence of those great elemental forces which shriek at mankind through the bars of his civilisation, like untamed beasts in a cage. As evening @@ -3180,9 +2957,6 @@ saved him in the Tankerville Club scandal.” “Ah, of course. He was wrongfully accused of cheating at cards.” “He said that you could solve anything.” - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 71 - “He said too much.” “That you are never beaten.” “I have been beaten four times—three times by men, and once by a woman.” @@ -3228,9 +3002,6 @@ friends, not even his own brother. “He didn’t mind me; in fact, he took a fancy to me, for at the time when he saw me first I was a youngster of twelve or so. This would be in the year 1878, - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 72 - after he had been eight or nine years in England. He begged my father to let me live with him and he was very kind to me in his way. When he was sober he used to be fond of playing backgammon and draughts with me, and he would make me @@ -3276,9 +3047,6 @@ I am sorry to give you such a two-edged thing, but I can’t say what turn thing going to take. Kindly sign the paper where Mr. Fordham shows you.’ “I signed the paper as directed, and the lawyer took it away with him. The - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 73 - singular incident made, as you may think, the deepest impression upon me, and I pondered over it and turned it every way in my mind without being able to make anything of it. Yet I could not shake off the vague feeling of dread which it left @@ -3324,9 +3092,6 @@ Southern states, and were mostly concerned with politics, for he had evidently taken a strong part in opposing the carpet-bag politicians who had been sent down from the North. - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 74 - “Well, it was the beginning of ‘84 when my father came to live at Horsham, and all went as well as possible with us until the January of ‘85. On the fourth day after the new year I heard my father give a sharp cry of surprise as we sat together @@ -3372,9 +3137,6 @@ some foul plot had been woven round him. “In this sinister way I came into my inheritance. You will ask me why I did not dispose of it? I answer, because I was well convinced that our troubles were - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 75 - in some way dependent upon an incident in my uncle’s life, and that the danger would be as pressing in one house as in another. “It was in January, ‘85, that my poor father met his end, and two years and eight @@ -3420,9 +3182,6 @@ us—no suggestive detail which might help us?” and, drawing out a piece of discoloured, blue-tinted paper, he laid it out upon the table. “I have some remembrance,” said he, “that on the day when my uncle - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 76 - burned the papers I observed that the small, unburned margins which lay amid the ashes were of this particular colour. I found this single sheet upon the floor of his room, and I am inclined to think that it may be one of the papers which @@ -3469,9 +3228,6 @@ safety. And yet you cannot guard yourself too closely.” “That is well. To-morrow I shall set to work upon your case.” “I shall see you at Horsham, then?” - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 77 - “No, your secret lies in London. It is there that I shall seek it.” “Then I shall call upon you in a day, or in two days, with news as to the box and the papers. I shall take your advice in every particular.” He shook hands with @@ -3517,9 +3273,6 @@ ology profound as regards the mud-stains from any region within fifty miles of town, chemistry eccentric, anatomy unsystematic, sensational literature and crime records unique, violin-player, boxer, swordsman, lawyer, and self-poisoner by co- - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 78 - caine and tobacco. Those, I think, were the main points of my analysis.” Holmes grinned at the last item. “Well,” he said, “I say now, as I said then, that a man should keep his little brain-attic stocked with all the furniture that he @@ -3564,9 +3317,6 @@ at the end of the time which it would take the senders to travel the distance. B this one comes from London, and therefore we cannot count upon delay.” “Good God!” I cried. “What can it mean, this relentless persecution?” - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 79 - “The papers which Openshaw carried are obviously of vital importance to the person or persons in the sailing-ship. I think that it is quite clear that there must be more than one of them. A single man could not have carried out two deaths in @@ -3612,9 +3362,6 @@ B, and C’—that is, sent the society’s warning to them. Then there are succ entries that A and B cleared, or left the country, and finally that C was visited, with, I fear, a sinister result for C. Well, I think, Doctor, that we may let some light - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 80 - into this dark place, and I believe that the only chance young Openshaw has in the meantime is to do what I have told him. There is nothing more to be said or to be done to-night, so hand me over my violin and let us try to forget for half an hour @@ -3661,9 +3408,6 @@ I had ever seen him. “That hurts my pride, Watson,” he said at last. “It is a petty feeling, no doubt, but it hurts my pride. It becomes a personal matter with me now, and, if God sends - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 81 - me health, I shall set my hand upon this gang. That he should come to me for help, and that I should send him away to his death—!” He sprang from his chair and paced about the room in uncontrollable agitation, with a flush upon his sallow @@ -3708,9 +3452,6 @@ papers, following the future career of every vessel which touched at Pondicherry in January and February in ‘83. There were thirty-six ships of fair tonnage which were reported there during those months. Of these, one, the ‘Lone Star,’ instantly - -### ADVENTURE V. THE FIVE ORANGE PIPS 82 - attracted my attention, since, although it was reported as having cleared from Lon- don, the name is that which is given to one of the states of the Union.” “Texas, I think.” @@ -3743,14 +3484,13 @@ that somewhere far out in the Atlantic a shattered stern-post of a boat was seen swinging in the trough of a wave, with the letters “L. S.” carved upon it, and that is all which we shall ever know of the fate of the “Lone Star.” - -Adventure VI +#### Adventure VI ## The Man With The Twisted Lip -# I +## I -SAWhitney, brother of the late Elias Whitney, D.D., Principal of the The- +SA Whitney, brother of the late Elias Whitney, D.D., Principal of the The- ological College of St. George’s, was much addicted to opium. The habit grew upon him, as I understand, from some foolish freak when he was at college; for having read De Quincey’s description of his dreams and @@ -3781,11 +3521,6 @@ Folk who were in grief came to my wife like birds to a light-house. and sit here comfortably and tell us all about it. Or should you rather that I sent James off to bed?” -### 83 - - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 84 - “Oh, no, no! I want the doctor’s advice and help, too. It’s about Isa. He has not been home for two days. I am so frightened about him!” It was not the first time that she had spoken to us of her husband’s trouble, to @@ -3831,9 +3566,6 @@ little heed to the words of his neighbour. At the farther end was a small brazie burning charcoal, beside which on a three-legged wooden stool there sat a tall, thin old man, with his jaw resting upon his two fists, and his elbows upon his knees, - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 85 - staring into the fire. As I entered, a sallow Malay attendant had hurried up with a pipe for me and a supply of the drug, beckoning me to an empty berth. @@ -3878,9 +3610,6 @@ the great kindness to get rid of that sottish friend of yours I should be exceed glad to have a little talk with you.” “I have a cab outside.” - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 86 - “Then pray send him home in it. You may safely trust him, for he appears to be too limp to get into any mischief. I should recommend you also to send a note by the cabman to your wife to say that you have thrown in your lot with me. If you @@ -3926,9 +3655,6 @@ come with me, won’t you?” “Oh, a trusty comrade is always of use; and a chronicler still more so. My room at The Cedars is a double-bedded one.” - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 87 - “The Cedars?” “Yes; that is Mr. St. Clair’s house. I am staying there while I conduct the in- quiry.” @@ -3974,9 +3700,6 @@ thirty-seven years of age, is a man of temperate habits, a good husband, a very affectionate father, and a man who is popular with all who know him. I may add that his whole debts at the present moment, as far as we have been able to ascer- - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 88 - tain, amount to 88 pounds 10s., while he has 220 pounds standing to his credit in the Capital and Counties Bank. There is no reason, therefore, to think that money troubles have been weighing upon his mind. @@ -4022,9 +3745,6 @@ that the inspector was staggered, and had almost come to believe that Mrs. St. C had been deluded when, with a cry, she sprang at a small deal box which lay upon the table and tore the lid from it. Out there fell a cascade of children’s bricks. It - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 89 - was the toy which he had promised to bring home. “This discovery, and the evident confusion which the cripple showed, made the inspector realise that the matter was serious. The rooms were carefully examined, @@ -4070,9 +3790,6 @@ a singular contrast to the colour of his hair, all mark him out from amid the co crowd of mendicants and so, too, does his wit, for he is ever ready with a reply to any piece of chaff which may be thrown at him by the passers-by. This is the man - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 90 - whom we now learn to have been the lodger at the opium den, and to have been the last man to see the gentleman of whom we are in quest.” “But a cripple!” said I. “What could he have done single-handed against a man @@ -4118,9 +3835,6 @@ which could have seen the deed. What would he do then? It would of course instantly strike him that he must get rid of the tell-tale garments. He would seize the coat, then, and be in the act of throwing it out, when it would occur to him that it - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 91 - would swim and not sink. He has little time, for he has heard the scuffle downstairs when the wife tried to force her way up, and perhaps he has already heard from his Lascar confederate that the police are hurrying up the street. There is not an instant @@ -4166,9 +3880,6 @@ protruded, with eager eyes and parted lips, a standing question. “Well?” she cried, “well?” And then, seeing that there were two of us, she gave a cry of hope which sank into a groan as she saw that my companion shook his - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 92 - head and shrugged his shoulders. “No good news?” “None.” @@ -4214,9 +3925,6 @@ Sherlock Holmes sprang out of his chair as if he had been galvanised. He snatched it from her in his eagerness, and smoothing it out upon the table he drew over the lamp and examined it intently. I had left my chair and was gazing at - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 93 - it over his shoulder. The envelope was a very coarse one and was stamped with the Gravesend postmark and with the date of that very day, or rather of the day before, for it was considerably after midnight. @@ -4261,9 +3969,6 @@ There is so keen a sympathy between us that I should know if evil came upon him. On the very day that I saw him last he cut himself in the bedroom, and yet I in the dining-room rushed upstairs instantly with the utmost certainty that something had - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 94 - happened. Do you think that I would respond to such a trifle and yet be ignorant of his death?” “I have seen too much not to know that the impression of a woman may be @@ -4309,9 +4014,6 @@ fathomed it or convinced himself that his data were insufficient. It was soon ev to me that he was now preparing for an all-night sitting. He took off his coat and waistcoat, put on a large blue dressing-gown, and then wandered about the room - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 95 - collecting pillows from his bed and cushions from the sofa and armchairs. With these he constructed a sort of Eastern divan, upon which he perched himself cross- legged, with an ounce of shag tobacco and a box of matches laid out in front of @@ -4357,9 +4059,6 @@ dows as we drove through the streets of the Surrey side. Passing down the Waterl Bridge Road we crossed over the river, and dashing up Wellington Street wheeled sharply to the right and found ourselves in Bow Street. Sherlock Holmes was well - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 96 - known to the force, and the two constables at the door saluted him. One of them held the horse’s head while the other led us in. “Who is on duty?” asked Holmes. @@ -4404,9 +4103,6 @@ and I took the liberty of bringing the tools with me.” He opened the Gladstone as he spoke, and took out, to my astonishment, a very large bath-sponge. “He! he! You are a funny one,” chuckled the inspector. - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 97 - “Now, if you will have the great goodness to open that door very quietly, we will soon make him cut a much more respectable figure.” “Well, I don’t know why not,” said the inspector. “He doesn’t look a credit to @@ -4451,9 +4147,6 @@ proper authorities. The case would then never go into court at all.” prisonment, ay, even execution, rather than have left my miserable secret as a fam- ily blot to my children. - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 98 - “You are the first who have ever heard my story. My father was a schoolmaster in Chesterfield, where I received an excellent education. I travelled in my youth, took to the stage, and finally became a reporter on an evening paper in London. @@ -4499,9 +4192,6 @@ My dear wife knew that I had business in the City. She little knew what. “Last Monday I had finished for the day and was dressing in my room above the opium den when I looked out of my window and saw, to my horror and as- - -### ADVENTURE VI. THE MAN WITH THE TWISTED LIP 99 - tonishment, that my wife was standing in the street, with her eyes fixed full upon me. I gave a cry of surprise, threw up my arms to cover my face, and, rushing to my confidant, the Lascar, entreated him to prevent anyone from coming up to me. @@ -4541,14 +4231,14 @@ you reach your results.” ing an ounce of shag. I think, Watson, that if we drive to Baker Street we shall just be in time for breakfast.” +#### Adventure VII -Adventure VII ## The Adventure Of The Blue Carbuncle -# I +## I -HADcalled upon my friend Sherlock Holmes upon the second morning +HAD called upon my friend Sherlock Holmes upon the second morning after Christmas, with the intention of wishing him the compliments of the season. He was lounging upon the sofa in a purple dressing-gown, a pipe- rack within his reach upon the right, and a pile of crumpled morning @@ -4577,11 +4267,6 @@ experience of such.” “So much so,” I remarked, “that of the last six cases which I have added to my notes, three have been entirely free of any legal crime.” -### 100 - - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 101 - “Precisely. You allude to my attempt to recover the Irene Adler papers, to the singular case of Miss Mary Sutherland, and to the adventure of the man with the twisted lip. Well, I have no doubt that this small matter will fall into the same @@ -4627,9 +4312,6 @@ of the unknown gentleman who lost his Christmas dinner.” “Only as much as we can deduce.” “From his hat?” - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 102 - “Precisely.” “But you are joking. What can you gather from this old battered felt?” “Here is my lens. You know my methods. What can you gather yourself as to @@ -4675,9 +4357,6 @@ said he; “a man with so large a brain must have something in it.” “This hat is three years old. These flat brims curled at the edge came in then. It is a hat of the very best quality. Look at the band of ribbed silk and the excellent - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 103 - lining. If this man could afford to buy so expensive a hat three years ago, and has had no hat since, then he has assuredly gone down in the world.” “Well, that is clear enough, certainly. But how about the foresight and the @@ -4723,9 +4402,6 @@ Peterson, the commissionaire, rushed into the apartment with flushed cheeks and the face of a man who is dazed with astonishment. “The goose, Mr. Holmes! The goose, sir!” he gasped. - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 104 - “Eh? What of it, then? Has it returned to life and flapped off through the kitchen window?” Holmes twisted himself round upon the sofa to get a fairer view of the man’s excited face. @@ -4772,9 +4448,6 @@ table. Ryder instantly gave the alarm, and Horner was arrested the same evening; but the stone could not be found either upon his person or in his rooms. Catherine Cusack, maid to the Countess, deposed to ``` - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 105 - ``` having heard Ryder’s cry of dismay on discovering the robbery, and to having rushed into the room, where she found matters as described @@ -4821,9 +4494,6 @@ against the light. “It’s a bonny thing,” said he. “Just see how it glint Of course it is a nucleus and focus of crime. Every good stone is. They are the devil’s pet baits. In the larger and older jewels every facet may stand for a bloody - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 106 - deed. This stone is not yet twenty years old. It was found in the banks of the Amoy River in southern China and is remarkable in having every characteristic of the carbuncle, save that it is blue in shade instead of ruby red. In spite of its youth, @@ -4868,9 +4538,6 @@ a sign of cuff or shirt. He spoke in a slow staccato fashion, choosing his words with care, and gave the impression generally of a man of learning and letters who had had ill-usage at the hands of fortune. - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 107 - “We have retained these things for some days,” said Holmes, “because we ex- pected to see an advertisement from you giving your address. I am at a loss to know now why you did not advertise.” @@ -4916,9 +4583,6 @@ It was a bitter night, so we drew on our ulsters and wrapped cravats about our throats. Outside, the stars were shining coldly in a cloudless sky, and the breath of the passers-by blew out into smoke like so many pistol shots. Our footfalls rang - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 108 - out crisply and loudly as we swung through the doctors’ quarter, Wimpole Street, Harley Street, and so through Wigmore Street into Oxford Street. In a quarter of an hour we were in Bloomsbury at the Alpha Inn, which is a small public-house at the @@ -4964,9 +4628,6 @@ To my surprise the question provoked a burst of anger from the salesman. “Now, then, mister,” said he, with his head cocked and his arms akimbo, “what are you driving at? Let’s have it straight, now.” - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 109 - “It is straight enough. I should like to know who sold you the geese which you supplied to the Alpha.” “Well then, I shan’t tell you. So now!” @@ -5012,9 +4673,6 @@ Brixton Road, egg and poultry supplier.’ ” “ ‘December 22nd. Twenty-four geese at 7s. 6d.’ ” “Quite so. There you are. And underneath?” - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 110 - “ ‘Sold to Mr. Windigate of the Alpha, at 12s.’ ” “What have you to say now?” Sherlock Holmes looked deeply chagrined. He drew a sovereign from his @@ -5060,9 +4718,6 @@ assistance to you.” don’t know.” “But you can know nothing of this?” - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 111 - “Excuse me, I know everything of it. You are endeavouring to trace some geese which were sold by Mrs. Oakshott, of Brixton Road, to a salesman named Breckinridge, by him in turn to Mr. Windigate, of the Alpha, and by him to his @@ -5107,9 +4762,6 @@ hand. Holmes unlocked his strong-box and held up the blue carbuncle, which shone out like a star, with a cold, brilliant, many-pointed radiance. Ryder stood glaring with a drawn face, uncertain whether to claim or to disown it. - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 112 - “The game’s up, Ryder,” said Holmes quietly. “Hold up, man, or you’ll be into the fire! Give him an arm back into his chair, Watson. He’s not got blood enough to go in for felony with impunity. Give him a dash of brandy. So! Now he looks @@ -5155,9 +4807,6 @@ the market. All the way there every man I met seemed to me to be a policeman or a detective; and, for all that it was a cold night, the sweat was pouring down my face before I came to the Brixton Road. My sister asked me what was the matter, - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 113 - and why I was so pale; but I told her that I had been upset by the jewel robbery at the hotel. Then I went into the back yard and smoked a pipe and wondered what it would be best to do. @@ -5203,9 +4852,6 @@ some terrible mistake had occurred. I left the bird, rushed back to my sister’ hurried into the back yard. There was not a bird to be seen there. “ ‘Where are they all, Maggie?’ I cried. - -### ADVENTURE VII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BLUE CARBUNCLE 114 - “ ‘Gone to the dealer’s, Jem.’ “ ‘Which dealer’s?’ “ ‘Breckinridge, of Covent Garden.’ @@ -5240,14 +4886,15 @@ sical problem, and its solution is its own reward. If you will have the goodness touch the bell, Doctor, we will begin another investigation, in which, also a bird will be the chief feature.” +#### Adventure VIII -Adventure VIII +## The Adventure Of The Speckled -## The Adventure Of The Speckled Band +## Band -# O +## O -Nglancing over my notes of the seventy odd cases in which I have +N glancing over my notes of the seventy odd cases in which I have during the last eight years studied the methods of my friend Sher- lock Holmes, I find many tragic, some comic, a large number merely strange, but none commonplace; for, working as he did rather for the @@ -5276,11 +4923,6 @@ excitement, who insists upon seeing me. She is waiting now in the sitting-room. Now, when young ladies wander about the metropolis at this hour of the morning, and knock sleepy people up out of their beds, I presume that it is something very -### 115 - - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 116 - pressing which they have to communicate. Should it prove to be an interesting case, you would, I am sure, wish to follow it from the outset. I thought, at any rate, that I should call you and give you the chance.” @@ -5326,9 +4968,6 @@ of you from Mrs. Farintosh, whom you helped in the hour of her sore need. It was from her that I had your address. Oh, sir, do you not think that you could help me, too, and at least throw a little light through the dense darkness which surrounds me? - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 117 - At present it is out of my power to reward you for your services, but in a month or six weeks I shall be married, with the control of my own income, and then at least you shall not find me ungrateful.” @@ -5374,9 +5013,6 @@ widow of Major-General Stoner, of the Bengal Artillery. My sister Julia and I we twins, and we were only two years old at the time of my mother’s re-marriage. She had a considerable sum of money—not less than 1000 pounds a year—and this she - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 118 - bequeathed to Dr. Roylott entirely while we resided with him, with a provision that a certain annual sum should be allowed to each of us in the event of our marriage. Shortly after our return to England my mother died—she was killed eight years @@ -5422,9 +5058,6 @@ deprived me of my only companion.” Sherlock Holmes had been leaning back in his chair with his eyes closed and his head sunk in a cushion, but he half opened his lids now and glanced across at - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 119 - his visitor. “Pray be precise as to details,” said he. “It is easy for me to be so, for every event of that dreadful time is seared into @@ -5470,9 +5103,6 @@ night. The wind was howling outside, and the rain was beating and splashing against the windows. Suddenly, amid all the hubbub of the gale, there burst forth the wild scream of a terrified woman. I knew that it was my sister’s voice. I sprang - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 120 - from my bed, wrapped a shawl round me, and rushed into the corridor. As I opened my door I seemed to hear a low whistle, such as my sister described, and a few mo- ments later a clanging sound, as if a mass of metal had fallen. As I ran down @@ -5518,9 +5148,6 @@ there were no marks of any violence upon her.” “It is my belief that she died of pure fear and nervous shock, though what it was that frightened her I cannot imagine.” - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 121 - “Were there gipsies in the plantation at the time?” “Yes, there are nearly always some there.” “Ah, and what did you gather from this allusion to a band—a speckled band?” @@ -5565,9 +5192,6 @@ possible for us to see over these rooms without the knowledge of your stepfather “As it happens, he spoke of coming into town to-day upon some most important business. It is probable that he will be away all day, and that there would be nothing - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 122 - to disturb you. We have a housekeeper now, but she is old and foolish, and I could easily get her out of the way.” “Excellent. You are not averse to this trip, Watson?” @@ -5612,9 +5236,6 @@ the cross bar of the doorway, and his breadth seemed to span it across from side side. A large face, seared with a thousand wrinkles, burned yellow with the sun, and marked with every evil passion, was turned from one to the other of us, while - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 123 - his deep-set, bile-shot eyes, and his high, thin, fleshless nose, gave him somewhat the resemblance to a fierce old bird of prey. “Which of you is Holmes?” asked this apparition. @@ -5660,9 +5281,6 @@ which it is concerned. The total income, which at the time of the wife’s death little short of 1100 pounds, is now, through the fall in agricultural prices, not more than 750 pounds. Each daughter can claim an income of 250 pounds, in case of - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 124 - marriage. It is evident, therefore, that if both girls had married, this beauty would have had a mere pittance, while even one of them would cripple him to a very serious extent. My morning’s work has not been wasted, since it has proved that he @@ -5708,9 +5326,6 @@ with us warmly. “All has turned out splendidly. Dr. Roylott has gone to town, it is unlikely that he will be back before evening.” “We have had the pleasure of making the doctor’s acquaintance,” said Holmes, - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 125 - and in a few words he sketched out what had occurred. Miss Stoner turned white to the lips as she listened. “Good heavens!” she cried, “he has followed me, then.” @@ -5756,9 +5371,6 @@ rooms opened. Holmes refused to examine the third chamber, so we passed at once to the second, that in which Miss Stoner was now sleeping, and in which her sister had met with her fate. It was a homely little room, with a low ceiling and a gaping - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 126 - fireplace, after the fashion of old country-houses. A brown chest of drawers stood in one corner, a narrow white-counterpaned bed in another, and a dressing-table on the left-hand side of the window. These articles, with two small wicker-work @@ -5803,9 +5415,6 @@ was as plainly furnished. A camp-bed, a small wooden shelf full of books, mostly of a technical character, an armchair beside the bed, a plain wooden chair against the wall, a round table, and a large iron safe were the principal things which met - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 127 - the eye. Holmes walked slowly round and examined each and all of them with the keenest interest. “What’s in here?” he asked, tapping the safe. @@ -5850,9 +5459,6 @@ there?” “Very good. Your windows would be visible from there?” “Certainly.” - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 128 - “You must confine yourself to your room, on pretence of a headache, when your stepfather comes back. Then when you hear him retire for the night, you must open the shutters of your window, undo the hasp, put your lamp there as a signal @@ -5897,9 +5503,6 @@ visible to me.” “No, but I fancy that I may have deduced a little more. I imagine that you saw all that I did.” - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 129 - “I saw nothing remarkable save the bell-rope, and what purpose that could answer I confess is more than I can imagine.” “You saw the ventilator, too?” @@ -5945,9 +5548,6 @@ There was little difficulty in entering the grounds, for unrepaired breaches gaped in the old park wall. Making our way among the trees, we reached the lawn, crossed it, and were about to enter through the window when out from a clump of - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 130 - laurel bushes there darted what seemed to be a hideous and distorted child, who threw itself upon the grass with writhing limbs and then ran swiftly across the lawn into the darkness. @@ -5993,9 +5593,6 @@ jet of steam escaping continually from a kettle. The instant that we heard it, H sprang from the bed, struck a match, and lashed furiously with his cane at the bell- pull. - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 131 - “You see it, Watson?” he yelled. “You see it?” But I saw nothing. At the moment when Holmes struck the light I heard a low, clear whistle, but the sudden glare flashing into my weary eyes made it impossible @@ -6041,9 +5638,6 @@ It is not necessary that I should prolong a narrative which has already run to t great a length by telling how we broke the sad news to the terrified girl, how we conveyed her by the morning train to the care of her good aunt at Harrow, of how - -### ADVENTURE VIII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE SPECKLED BAND 132 - the slow process of official inquiry came to the conclusion that the doctor met his fate while indiscreetly playing with a dangerous pet. The little which I had yet to learn of the case was told me by Sherlock Holmes as we travelled back next day. @@ -6089,14 +5683,15 @@ flew upon the first person it saw. In this way I am no doubt indirectly responsi for Dr. Grimesby Roylott’s death, and I cannot say that it is likely to weigh very heavily upon my conscience.” +#### Adventure IX -Adventure IX +## The Adventure Of The -## The Adventure Of The Engineer’s Thumb +## Engineer’s Thumb -# O +## O -Fall the problems which have been submitted to my friend, Mr. Sher- +F all the problems which have been submitted to my friend, Mr. Sher- lock Holmes, for solution during the years of our intimacy, there were only two which I was the means of introducing to his notice—that of Mr. Hatherley’s thumb, and that of Colonel Warburton’s madness. Of @@ -6125,11 +5720,6 @@ tapping at the door to announce that two men had come from Paddington and were waiting in the consulting-room. I dressed hurriedly, for I knew by experience that railway cases were seldom trivial, and hastened downstairs. As I descended, my -### 133 - - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 134 - old ally, the guard, came out of the room and closed the door tightly behind him. “I’ve got him here,” he whispered, jerking his thumb over his shoulder; “he’s all right.” @@ -6176,9 +5766,6 @@ to my thumb, or rather to the place where my thumb used to be.” He unwound the handkerchief and held out his hand. It gave even my hardened nerves a shudder to look at it. There were four protruding fingers and a horrid red, - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 135 - spongy surface where the thumb should have been. It had been hacked or torn right out from the roots. “Good heavens!” I cried, “this is a terrible injury. It must have bled consider- @@ -6223,9 +5810,6 @@ as well. Would you give me an introduction to him?” breakfast with him. Do you feel equal to it?” “Yes; I shall not feel easy until I have told my story.” - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 136 - “Then my servant will call a cab, and I shall be with you in an instant.” I rushed upstairs, explained the matter shortly to my wife, and in five minutes was inside a hansom, driving with my new acquaintance to Baker Street. @@ -6271,9 +5855,6 @@ His whole face sharpened away into nose and chin, and the skin of his cheeks was drawn quite tense over his outstanding bones. Yet this emaciation seemed to be his natural habit, and due to no disease, for his eye was bright, his step brisk, and his - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 137 - bearing assured. He was plainly but neatly dressed, and his age, I should judge, would be nearer forty than thirty. “ ‘Mr. Hatherley?’ said he, with something of a German accent. ’You have @@ -6319,9 +5900,6 @@ show us what is wrong we shall soon set it right ourselves. What do you think of such a commission as that?’ “ ‘The work appears to be light and the pay munificent.’ - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 138 - “ ‘Precisely so. We shall want you to come to-night by the last train.’ “ ‘Where to?’ “ ‘To Eyford, in Berkshire. It is a little place near the borders of Oxfordshire, @@ -6367,9 +5945,6 @@ little deposit and that in this way we should earn the money which would enable to buy the neighbouring fields. This we have now been doing for some time, and in order to help us in our operations we erected a hydraulic press. This press, as I have - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 139 - already explained, has got out of order, and we wish your advice upon the subject. We guard our secret very jealously, however, and if it once became known that we had hydraulic engineers coming to our little house, it would soon rouse inquiry, @@ -6415,9 +5990,6 @@ a chestnut.” “Tired-looking or fresh?” “Oh, fresh and glossy.” - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 140 - “Thank you. I am sorry to have interrupted you. Pray continue your most interesting statement.” “Away we went then, and we drove for at least an hour. Colonel Lysander @@ -6463,9 +6035,6 @@ where in the passage, but otherwise everything was deadly still. A vague feeling of uneasiness began to steal over me. Who were these German people, and what were they doing living in this strange, out-of-the-way place? And where was the - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 141 - place? I was ten miles or so from Eyford, that was all I knew, but whether north, south, east, or west I had no idea. For that matter, Reading, and possibly other large towns, were within that radius, so the place might not be so secluded, after @@ -6511,9 +6080,6 @@ be a little close.’ business, then,’ said he. ‘Mr. Ferguson and I will take you up to see the machine.’ “ ‘I had better put my hat on, I suppose.’ - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 142 - “ ‘Oh, no, it is in the house.’ “ ‘What, you dig fuller’s-earth in the house?’ “ ‘No, no. This is only where we compress it. But never mind that. All we @@ -6559,9 +6125,6 @@ a crust of metallic deposit all over it. I had stooped and was scraping at this exactly what it was when I heard a muttered exclamation in German and saw the cadaverous face of the colonel looking down at me. - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 143 - “ ‘What are you doing there?’ he asked. “I felt angry at having been tricked by so elaborate a story as that which he had told me. ‘I was admiring your fuller’s-earth,’ said I; ‘I think that I should be better @@ -6607,9 +6170,6 @@ will see that you are not there. Oh, do not waste the so-precious time, but come with her along the corridor and down a winding stair. The latter led to another broad passage, and just as we reached it we heard the sound of running feet and the - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 144 - shouting of two voices, one answering the other from the floor on which we were and from the one beneath. My guide stopped and looked about her like one who is at her wit’s end. Then she threw open a door which led into a bedroom, through @@ -6655,9 +6215,6 @@ upon my hand, all that had passed during those dreadful hours might have been an evil dream. “Half dazed, I went into the station and asked about the morning train. There - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 145 - would be one to Reading in less than an hour. The same porter was on duty, I found, as had been there when I arrived. I inquired of him whether he had ever heard of Colonel Lysander Stark. The name was strange to him. Had he observed a car- @@ -6703,9 +6260,6 @@ the woman’s entreaties.” “Oh, we shall soon clear up all that,” said Bradstreet. “Well, I have drawn my circle, and I only wish I knew at what point upon it the folk that we are in search - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 146 - of are to be found.” “I think I could lay my finger on it,” said Holmes quietly. “Really, now!” cried the inspector, “you have formed your opinion! Come, @@ -6751,9 +6305,6 @@ a long, sharp nose?” The station-master laughed heartily. “No, sir, Dr. Becher is an Englishman, and there isn’t a man in the parish who has a better-lined waistcoat. But he has - -### ADVENTURE IX. THE ADVENTURE OF THE ENGINEER’S THUMB 147 - a gentleman staying with him, a patient, as I understand, who is a foreigner, and he looks as if a little good Berkshire beef would do him no harm.” The station-master had not finished his speech before we were all hastening @@ -6799,14 +6350,15 @@ a fifty-guinea fee, and what have I gained?” you have only to put it into words to gain the reputation of being excellent company for the remainder of your existence.” +#### Adventure X -Adventure X +## The Adventure Of The Noble -## The Adventure Of The Noble Bachelor +## Bachelor -# T +## T -HELord St. Simon marriage, and its curious termination, have long ceased +HE Lord St. Simon marriage, and its curious termination, have long ceased to be a subject of interest in those exalted circles in which the unfortu- nate bridegroom moves. Fresh scandals have eclipsed it, and their more piquant details have drawn the gossips away from this four-year-old @@ -6835,11 +6387,6 @@ He broke the seal and glanced over the contents. “Not social, then?” “No, distinctly professional.” -### 148 - - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 149 - “And from a noble client?” “One of the highest in England.” “My dear fellow, I congratulate you.” @@ -6858,7 +6405,7 @@ St. Simon and his wedding?” I will read it to you, and in return you must turn over these papers and let me have whatever bears upon the matter. This is what he says: -“MYDEARMR. SHERLOCKHOLMES:—Lord Backwater tells me +“MY DEAR MR. SHERLOCK HOLMES:—Lord Backwater tells me that I may place implicit reliance upon your judgment and discretion. I have determined, therefore, to call upon you and to consult you in reference to the very painful event which has occurred in connection @@ -6885,9 +6432,6 @@ blood by direct descent, and Tudor on the distaff side. Ha! Well, there is nothi very instructive in all this. I think that I must turn to you Watson, for something more solid.” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 150 - “I have very little difficulty in finding what I want,” said I, “for the facts are quite recent, and the matter struck me as remarkable. I feared to refer them to you, however, as I knew that you had an inquiry on hand and that you disliked the @@ -6933,9 +6477,6 @@ notices which appeared before the disappearance of the bride.” “Before the what?” asked Holmes with a start. “The vanishing of the lady.” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 151 - “When did she vanish, then?” “At the wedding breakfast.” “Indeed. This is more interesting than it promised to be; quite dramatic, in @@ -6982,9 +6523,6 @@ that he had seen a lady leave the house thus apparelled, but had refused to credit that it was his mistress, believing her to be with the company. On ascertaining that his daughter had disappeared, Mr. Aloysius Do- ``` - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 152 - ``` ran, in conjunction with the bridegroom, instantly put themselves in communication with the police, and very energetic inquiries are be- @@ -7031,9 +6569,6 @@ delicate cases of this sort, sir, though I presume that they were hardly from th same class of society.” “No, I am descending.” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 153 - “I beg pardon.” “My last client of the sort was a king.” “Oh, really! I had no idea. And which king?” @@ -7079,9 +6614,6 @@ to be at bottom a noble woman. I believe that she is capable of heroic self-sacr and that anything dishonourable would be repugnant to her.” “Have you her photograph?” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 154 - “I brought this with me.” He opened a locket and showed us the full face of a very lovely woman. It was not a photograph but an ivory miniature, and the artist had brought out the full effect of the lustrous black hair, the large dark eyes, and @@ -7125,9 +6657,6 @@ mind than she had gone to it. What did she do on re-entering her father’s hous “Alice is her name. She is an American and came from California with her.” “A confidential servant?” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 155 - “A little too much so. It seemed to me that her mistress allowed her to take great liberties. Still, of course, in America they look upon these things in a different way.” @@ -7173,9 +6702,6 @@ is thought that Flora decoyed my wife out and laid some terrible trap for her. “I did not say a probable one. But you do not yourself look upon this as likely?” “I do not think Flora would hurt a fly.” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 156 - “Still, jealousy is a strange transformer of characters. Pray what is your own theory as to what took place?” “Well, really, I came to seek a theory, not to propound one. I have given you @@ -7220,9 +6746,6 @@ will find an extra tumbler upon the sideboard, and there are cigars in the box. The official detective was attired in a pea-jacket and cravat, which gave him a decidedly nautical appearance, and he carried a black canvas bag in his hand. - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 157 - With a short greeting he seated himself and lit the cigar which had been offered to him. “What’s up, then?” asked Holmes with a twinkle in his eye. “You look dissat- @@ -7267,9 +6790,6 @@ You have made two blunders in as many minutes. This dress does implicate Miss Flora Millar.” “And how?” - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 158 - “In the dress is a pocket. In the pocket is a card-case. In the card-case is a note. And here is the very note.” He slapped it down upon the table in front of him. “Listen to this: ‘You will see me when all is ready. Come at once. F.H.M.’ Now my @@ -7314,9 +6834,6 @@ to be laid out upon our humble lodging-house mahogany. There were a couple of brace of cold woodcock, a pheasant, a pt de foie gras pie with a group of ancient and cobwebby bottles. Having laid out all these luxuries, my two visitors vanished - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 159 - away, like the genii of the Arabian Nights, with no explanation save that the things had been paid for and were ordered to this address. Just before nine o’clock Sherlock Holmes stepped briskly into the room. His @@ -7362,9 +6879,6 @@ his resolution, perhaps, for her pleading face was one which it was hard to resi “You’re angry, Robert,” said she. “Well, I guess you have every cause to be.” “Pray make no apology to me,” said Lord St. Simon bitterly. - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 160 - “Oh, yes, I know that I have treated you real bad and that I should have spoken to you before I went; but I was kind of rattled, and from the time when I saw Frank here again I just didn’t know what I was doing or saying. I only wonder I didn’t @@ -7410,9 +6924,6 @@ ghost at first; but when I looked again there he was still, with a kind of quest his eyes, as if to ask me whether I were glad or sorry to see him. I wonder I didn’t drop. I know that everything was turning round, and the words of the clergyman - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 161 - were just like the buzz of a bee in my ear. I didn’t know what to do. Should I stop the service and make a scene in the church? I glanced at him again, and he seemed to know what I was thinking, for he raised his finger to his lips to tell me to be @@ -7458,9 +6969,6 @@ Lord St. Simon had by no means relaxed his rigid attitude, but had listened with a frowning brow and a compressed lip to this long narrative. “Excuse me,” he said, “but it is not my custom to discuss my most intimate - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 162 - personal affairs in this public manner.” “Then you won’t forgive me? You won’t shake hands before I go?” “Oh, certainly, if it would give you any pleasure.” He put out his hand and @@ -7506,9 +7014,6 @@ which in miners’ parlance means taking possession of that which another person has a prior claim to—the whole situation became absolutely clear. She had gone off with a man, and the man was either a lover or was a previous husband—the - -### ADVENTURE X. THE ADVENTURE OF THE NOBLE BACHELOR 163 - chances being in favour of the latter.” “And how in the world did you find them?” “It might have been difficult, but friend Lestrade held information in his hands @@ -7537,14 +7042,15 @@ mercifully and thank our stars that we are never likely to find ourselves in the position. Draw your chair up and hand me my violin, for the only problem we have still to solve is how to while away these bleak autumnal evenings.” +#### Adventure XI -Adventure XI +## The Adventure Of The Beryl -## The Adventure Of The Beryl Coronet +## Coronet -### “ +“ -# H +## H OLMES,” said I as I stood one morning in our bow-window looking down the street, “here is a madman coming along. It seems rather sad that @@ -7575,11 +7081,6 @@ numbers of the houses.” I recognise the symptoms. Ha! did I not tell you?” As he spoke, the man, puff- ing and blowing, rushed at our door and pulled at our bell until the whole house -### 164 - - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 165 - resounded with the clanging. A few moments later he was in our room, still puffing, still gesticulating, but with so fixed a look of grief and despair in his eyes that our smiles were turned in @@ -7625,9 +7126,6 @@ much depends upon our being able to find remunerative investments for our funds as upon our increasing our connection and the number of our depositors. One of our most lucrative means of laying out money is in the shape of loans, where the - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 166 - security is unimpeachable. We have done a good deal in this direction during the last few years, and there are many noble families to whom we have advanced large sums upon the security of their pictures, libraries, or plate. @@ -7673,9 +7171,6 @@ I should not dream of doing so were it not absolutely certain that I should be a in four days to reclaim it. It is a pure matter of form. Is the security sufficient?’ “ ‘Ample.’ - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 167 - “ ‘You understand, Mr. Holder, that I am giving you a strong proof of the con- fidence which I have in you, founded upon all that I have heard of you. I rely upon you not only to be discreet and to refrain from all gossip upon the matter but, @@ -7721,9 +7216,6 @@ I meant it for the best. “It was naturally my intention that he should succeed me in my business, but he was not of a business turn. He was wild, wayward, and, to speak the truth, I could - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 168 - not trust him in the handling of large sums of money. When he was young he became a member of an aristocratic club, and there, having charming manners, he was soon the intimate of a number of men with long purses and expensive habits. @@ -7769,9 +7261,6 @@ it myself with the key of the box-room cupboard.’ “He often had a wild way of talking, so that I thought little of what he said. He followed me to my room, however, that night with a very grave face. - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 169 - “ ‘Look here, dad,’ said he with his eyes cast down, ‘can you let me have 200 pounds?’ “ ‘No, I cannot!’ I answered sharply. ‘I have been far too generous with you in @@ -7816,9 +7305,6 @@ fear, and peeped round the corner of my dressing-room door. “ ‘Arthur!’ I screamed, ‘you villain! you thief! How dare you touch that coronet?’ - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 170 - “The gas was half up, as I had left it, and my unhappy boy, dressed only in his shirt and trousers, was standing beside the light, holding the coronet in his hands. He appeared to be wrenching at it, or bending it with all his strength. At my cry he @@ -7864,9 +7350,6 @@ forgotten.’ from me with a sneer. I saw that he was too hardened for any words of mine to influence him. There was but one way for it. I called in the inspector and gave him - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 171 - into custody. A search was made at once not only of his person but of his room and of every portion of the house where he could possibly have concealed the gems; but no trace of them could be found, nor would the wretched boy open his mouth for @@ -7912,9 +7395,6 @@ a household. What did they say, then, of the disappearance of these gems?” finding them.” “Have they thought of looking outside the house?” - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 172 - “Yes, they have shown extraordinary energy. The whole garden has already been minutely examined.” “Now, my dear sir,” said Holmes. “is it not obvious to you now that this matter @@ -7960,9 +7440,6 @@ hair and eyes, which seemed the darker against the absolute pallor of her skin. I do not think that I have ever seen such deadly paleness in a woman’s face. Her lips, too, were bloodless, but her eyes were flushed with crying. As she swept - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 173 - silently into the room she impressed me with a greater sense of grief than the banker had done in the morning, and it was the more striking in her as she was evidently a woman of strong character, with immense capacity for self-restraint. @@ -8008,9 +7485,6 @@ uncle last night that she had been out to see him?” “Yes, and she was the girl who waited in the drawing-room, and who may have heard uncle’s remarks about the coronet.” - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 174 - “I see. You infer that she may have gone out to tell her sweetheart, and that the two may have planned the robbery.” “But what is the good of all these vague theories,” cried the banker impatiently, @@ -8055,9 +7529,6 @@ three gems had been torn away. which has been so unfortunately lost. Might I beg that you will break it off.” The banker recoiled in horror. “I should not dream of trying,” said he. - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 175 - “Then I will.” Holmes suddenly bent his strength upon it, but without result. “I feel it give a little,” said he; “but, though I am exceptionally strong in the fingers, it would take me all my time to break it. An ordinary man could not do it. Now, @@ -8102,9 +7573,6 @@ He hurried to his chamber and was down again in a few minutes dressed as a com- mon loafer. With his collar turned up, his shiny, seedy coat, his red cravat, and his worn boots, he was a perfect sample of the class. - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 176 - “I think that this should do,” said he, glancing into the glass above the fireplace. “I only wish that you could come with me, Watson, but I fear that it won’t do. I may be on the trail in this matter, or I may be following a will-o’-the-wisp, but I shall @@ -8150,9 +7618,6 @@ left to a lonely and dishonoured age. One sorrow comes close upon the heels of another. My niece, Mary, has deserted me.” “Deserted you?” - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 177 - “Yes. Her bed this morning had not been slept in, her room was empty, and a note for me lay upon the hall table. I had said to her last night, in sorrow and not in anger, that if she had married my boy all might have been well with him. @@ -8160,7 +7625,7 @@ Perhaps it was thoughtless of me to say so. It is to that remark that she refers this note: ``` -“MYDEARESTUNCLE:—I feel that I have brought trouble upon you, +“MY DEAREST UNCLE:—I feel that I have brought trouble upon you, and that if I had acted differently this terrible misfortune might never have occurred. I cannot, with this thought in my mind, ever again be happy under your roof, and I feel that I must leave you forever. Do not @@ -8199,9 +7664,6 @@ truth is known.” “He knows it already. When I had cleared it all up I had an interview with him, and finding that he would not tell me the story, I told it to him, on which he had - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 178 - to confess that I was right and to add the very few details which were not yet quite clear to me. Your news of this morning, however, may open his lips.” “For heaven’s sake, tell me, then, what is this extraordinary mystery!” @@ -8247,9 +7709,6 @@ exposure of the woman whom he loved. But the instant that she was gone he realised how crushing a misfortune this would be for you, and how all-important it was to set it right. He rushed down, just as he was, in his bare feet, opened the - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 179 - window, sprang out into the snow, and ran down the lane, where he could see a dark figure in the moonlight. Sir George Burnwell tried to get away, but Arthur caught him, and there was a struggle between them, your lad tugging at one side of the @@ -8295,9 +7754,6 @@ lane, and another little smudge of blood showed that it was he who had been hurt When he came to the highroad at the other end, I found that the pavement had been cleared, so there was an end to that clue. - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 180 - “On entering the house, however, I examined, as you remember, the sill and framework of the hall window with my lens, and I could at once see that someone had passed out. I could distinguish the outline of an instep where the wet foot @@ -8343,9 +7799,6 @@ and I clapped a pistol to his head before he could strike. Then he became a litt more reasonable. I told him that we would give him a price for the stones he held— 1000 pounds apiece. That brought out the first signs of grief that he had shown. - -### ADVENTURE XI. THE ADVENTURE OF THE BERYL CORONET 181 - ‘Why, dash it all!’ said he, ‘I’ve let them go at six hundred for the three!’ I soon managed to get the address of the receiver who had them, on promising him that there would be no prosecution. Off I set to him, and after much chaffering I got @@ -8362,16 +7815,17 @@ your skill can inform me where she is now.” George Burnwell is. It is equally certain, too, that whatever her sins are, they will soon receive a more than sufficient punishment.” +#### Adventure XII -Adventure XII +## The Adventure Of The Copper -## The Adventure Of The Copper Beeches +## Beeches -### “ +“ -# T +## T -Othe man who loves art for its own sake,” remarked Sherlock Hol- +O the man who loves art for its own sake,” remarked Sherlock Hol- mes, tossing aside the advertisement sheet of the Daily Telegraph, “it is frequently in its least important and lowliest manifestations that the keenest pleasure is to be derived. It is pleasant to me to observe, Wat- @@ -8400,11 +7854,6 @@ have degraded what should have been a course of lectures into a series of tales. It was a cold morning of the early spring, and we sat after breakfast on either side of a cheery fire in the old room at Baker Street. A thick fog rolled down be- -### 182 - - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 183 - tween the lines of dun-coloured houses, and the opposing windows loomed like dark, shapeless blurs through the heavy yellow wreaths. Our gas was lit and shone on the white cloth and glimmer of china and metal, for the table had not been @@ -8433,10 +7882,11 @@ young ladies from boarding-schools. I think that I have touched bottom at last, however. This note I had this morning marks my zero-point, I fancy. Read it!” He tossed a crumpled letter across to me. It was dated from Montague Place upon the preceding evening, and ran thus: -“DEARMR. HOLMES:—I am very anxious to consult you as to whether + +“DEAR MR. HOLMES:—I am very anxious to consult you as to whether I should or should not accept a situation which has been offered to me as governess. I shall call at half-past ten to-morrow if I do not incon- -venience you. Yours faithfully, VIOLETHUNTER.” +venience you. Yours faithfully, VIOLET HUNTER.” “Do you know the young lady?” I asked. “Not I.” “It is half-past ten now.” @@ -8449,9 +7899,6 @@ I am much mistaken, is the person in question.” As he spoke the door opened and a young lady entered the room. She was plainly but neatly dressed, with a bright, quick face, freckled like a plover’s egg, - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 184 - and with the brisk manner of a woman who has had her own way to make in the world. “You will excuse my troubling you, I am sure,” said she, as my companion rose @@ -8496,9 +7943,6 @@ look at him. into the air like a man who is in a boiling passion. ‘How could anyone offer so pitiful a sum to a lady with such attractions and accomplishments?’ - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 185 - “ ‘My accomplishments, sir, may be less than you imagine,’ said I. ’A little French, a little German, music, and drawing—’ “ ‘Tut, tut!’ he cried. ‘This is all quite beside the question. The point is, have @@ -8543,9 +7987,6 @@ you would not object to our little whim. Heh?’ “ ‘Oh, no.’ “ ‘Or to cut your hair quite short before you come to us?’ - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 186 - “I could hardly believe my ears. As you may observe, Mr. Holmes, my hair is somewhat luxuriant, and of a rather peculiar tint of chestnut. It has been considered artistic. I could not dream of sacrificing it in this offhand fashion. @@ -8582,7 +8023,7 @@ himself. I have it here and I will read it to you: ``` “The Copper Beeches, near Winchester. -DEARMISSHUNTER:—Miss Stoper has very kindly given me +DEAR MISS HUNTER:—Miss Stoper has very kindly given me your address, and I write from here to ask you whether you have re- considered your decision. My wife is very anxious that you should come, for she has been much attracted by my description of you. We @@ -8592,9 +8033,6 @@ you. They are not very exacting, after all. My wife is fond of a par- ticular shade of electric blue and would like you to wear such a dress indoors in the morning. You need not, however, go to the expense of ``` - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 187 - ``` purchasing one, as we have one belonging to my dear daughter Alice (now in Philadelphia), which would, I should think, fit you very well. @@ -8641,9 +8079,6 @@ Holmes shook his head gravely. “It would cease to be a danger if we could define it,” said he. “But at any time, day or night, a telegram would bring me down to your help.” - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 188 - “That is enough.” She rose briskly from her chair with the anxiety all swept from her face. “I shall go down to Hampshire quite easy in my mind now. I shall write to Mr. Rucastle at once, sacrifice my poor hair to-night, and start for Winch- @@ -8689,9 +8124,6 @@ scenery. It was an ideal spring day, a light blue sky, flecked with little fleec clouds drifting across from west to east. The sun was shining very brightly, and yet there was an exhilarating nip in the air, which set an edge to a man’s energy. All - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 189 - over the countryside, away to the rolling hills around Aldershot, the little red and grey roofs of the farm-steadings peeped out from amid the light green of the new foliage. @@ -8723,7 +8155,7 @@ miles of country which makes the danger. Still, it is clear that she is not pers threatened.” “No. If she can come to Winchester to meet us she can get away.” “Quite so. She has her freedom.” -“Whatcanbe the matter, then? Can you suggest no explanation?” +“What can be the matter, then? Can you suggest no explanation?” “I have devised seven separate explanations, each of which would cover the facts as far as we know them. But which of these is correct can only be determined by the fresh information which we shall no doubt find waiting for us. Well, there is @@ -8736,9 +8168,6 @@ of you both; but indeed I do not know what I should do. Your advice will be altogether invaluable to me.” “Pray tell us what has happened to you.” - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 190 - “I will do so, and I must be quick, for I have promised Mr. Rucastle to be back before three. I got his leave to come into town this morning, though he little knew for what purpose.” @@ -8784,9 +8213,6 @@ is small for his age, with a head which is quite disproportionately large. His w life appears to be spent in an alternation between savage fits of passion and gloomy intervals of sulking. Giving pain to any creature weaker than himself seems to - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 191 - be his one idea of amusement, and he shows quite remarkable talent in planning the capture of mice, little birds, and insects. But I would rather not talk about the creature, Mr. Holmes, and, indeed, he has little to do with my story.” @@ -8832,9 +8258,6 @@ rpertoire, and which he told inimitably. Then he handed me a yellow-backed novel and moving my chair a little sideways, that my own shadow might not fall upon the page, he begged me to read aloud to him. I read for about ten minutes, beginning - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 192 - in the heart of a chapter, and then suddenly, in the middle of a sentence, he ordered me to cease and to change my dress. “You can easily imagine, Mr. Holmes, how curious I became as to what the @@ -8880,9 +8303,6 @@ huddled up in the darkness. “ ‘Don’t be frightened,’ said my employer, laughing at the start which I had given. ‘It’s only Carlo, my mastiff. I call him mine, but really old Toller, my - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 193 - groom, is the only man who can do anything with him. We feed him once a day, and not too much then, so that he is always as keen as mustard. Toller lets him loose every night, and God help the trespasser whom he lays his fangs upon. For @@ -8928,9 +8348,6 @@ a very different person to the round, jovial man to whom I was accustomed. His cheeks were red, his brow was all crinkled with anger, and the veins stood out at his temples with passion. He locked the door and hurried past me without a word - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 194 - or a look. “This aroused my curiosity, so when I went out for a walk in the grounds with my charge, I strolled round to the side from which I could see the windows of this @@ -8976,9 +8393,6 @@ I could see by the glimmer from beneath it that the room was not in darkness. Ev dently there was a skylight which let in light from above. As I stood in the passage gazing at the sinister door and wondering what secret it might veil, I suddenly heard - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 195 - the sound of steps within the room and saw a shadow pass backward and forward against the little slit of dim light which shone out from under the door. A mad, unreasoning terror rose up in me at the sight, Mr. Holmes. My overstrung nerves @@ -9024,9 +8438,6 @@ I had no difficulty in getting leave to come into Winchester this morning, but I be back before three o’clock, for Mr. and Mrs. Rucastle are going on a visit, and will be away all the evening, so that I must look after the child. Now I have told - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 196 - you all my adventures, Mr. Holmes, and I should be very glad if you could tell me what it all means, and, above all, what I should do.” Holmes and I had listened spellbound to this extraordinary story. My friend @@ -9072,9 +8483,6 @@ merely for cruelty’s sake, and whether he derives this from his smiling father I should suspect, or from his mother, it bodes evil for the poor girl who is in their power.” - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 197 - “I am sure that you are right, Mr. Holmes,” cried our client. “A thousand things come back to me which make me certain that you have hit it. Oh, let us lose not an instant in bringing help to this poor creature.” @@ -9119,9 +8527,6 @@ ready.” The words were hardly out of his mouth before a man appeared at the door of the room, a very fat and burly man, with a heavy stick in his hand. Miss Hunter - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 198 - screamed and shrunk against the wall at the sight of him, but Sherlock Holmes sprang forward and confronted him. “You villain!” said he, “where’s your daughter?” @@ -9167,9 +8572,6 @@ I could learn, Miss Alice had rights of her own by will, but she was so quiet an patient, she was, that she never said a word about them but just left everything in Mr. Rucastle’s hands. He knew he was safe with her; but when there was a chance - -### ADVENTURE XII. THE ADVENTURE OF THE COPPER BEECHES 199 - of a husband coming forward, who would ask for all that the law would give him, then her father thought it time to put a stop on it. He wanted her to sign a paper, so that whether she married or not, he could use her money. When she wouldn’t do it, @@ -9209,4 +8611,3 @@ she had ceased to be the centre of one of his problems, and she is now the head of a private school at Walsall, where I believe that she has met with considerable success. - diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/compactLines.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/compactLines.json index 6305da0..219238a 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/compactLines.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/compactLines.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "pages": 200, "items": 8844, - "groupedItems": 8519, - "changes": 237, + "groupedItems": 8522, + "changes": 234, "schema": [ { "name": "line", @@ -90,8 +90,7 @@ {"page":36,"change":"Addition","str":"ADVENTURE II. THE RED-HEADED LEAGUE 35","line":0,"x":117.828,"y":736.017,"width":"235.44","height":"10.91","fontName":["CMEHHO+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"ADVENTURE II. 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My wife is very anxious that you should","dir":"ltr","width":"304.11","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","145.10","208.52"],"fontName":"KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","x":145.10100000000006,"y":208.52100000000064,"line":37,"block":264} -{"page":187,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"come, for she has been much attracted by my description of you. 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They are not very exacting, after all. My wife is fond of a par-","dir":"ltr","width":"304.11","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","145.10","154.32"],"fontName":"KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","x":145.10100000000006,"y":154.3240000000006,"line":41,"block":264} -{"page":187,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"ticular shade of electric blue and would like you to wear such a dress","dir":"ltr","width":"304.11","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","145.10","140.78"],"fontName":"KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","x":145.10100000000006,"y":140.7750000000006,"line":42,"block":264} -{"page":187,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"indoors in the morning. 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"groupedItems": 8321, + "groupedItems": 8324, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectHeaders.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectHeaders.json index c2647b2..c1b4606 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectHeaders.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectHeaders.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "pages": 199, "items": 8436, - "groupedItems": 8308, - "changes": 53, + "groupedItems": 8311, + "changes": 47, "schema": [ { "name": "line" @@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ {"page":22,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure II","dir":"ltr","width":"114.78","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} {"page":22,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"I","dir":"ltr","width":"37.06","height":"59.78","transform":["59.78","0.00","0.00","59.78","117.83","485.40"],"fontName":"NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen","x":117.828,"y":485.39500000000004,"line":2} {"page":39,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure III","dir":"ltr","width":"122.82","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} -{"page":39,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"“ M","line":2,"x":117.828,"y":486.678,"width":"49.74","height":"59.78","fontName":["KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":39,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"M","dir":"ltr","width":"44.89","height":"59.78","transform":["59.78","0.00","0.00","59.78","122.67","486.68"],"fontName":"NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen","x":122.672,"y":486.678,"line":3} {"page":52,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure IV","dir":"ltr","width":"121.66","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} {"page":52,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"W","dir":"ltr","width":"48.90","height":"59.78","transform":["59.78","0.00","0.00","59.78","117.83","485.34"],"fontName":"NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen","x":117.828,"y":485.336,"line":2} {"page":70,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure V","dir":"ltr","width":"113.62","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} @@ -67,6 +67,6 @@ {"page":149,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure X","dir":"ltr","width":"113.62","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} {"page":149,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"T","dir":"ltr","width":"44.05","height":"59.78","transform":["59.78","0.00","0.00","59.78","117.83","455.57"],"fontName":"NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen","x":117.828,"y":455.567,"line":3} {"page":165,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure XI","dir":"ltr","width":"121.66","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} -{"page":165,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"“ H","line":3,"x":117.828,"y":456.22499999999997,"width":"46.75","height":"59.78","fontName":["KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":165,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"H","dir":"ltr","width":"41.90","height":"59.78","transform":["59.78","0.00","0.00","59.78","122.67","456.22"],"fontName":"NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen","x":122.672,"y":456.22499999999997,"line":4} {"page":183,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Adventure XII","dir":"ltr","width":"129.70","height":"20.66","transform":["20.66","0.00","0.00","20.66","117.83","630.54"],"fontName":"INBNCB+NimbusRomNo9L-Medi","x":117.828,"y":630.539,"line":0} -{"page":183,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"“ T","line":3,"x":117.828,"y":455.56699999999995,"width":"48.90","height":"59.78","fontName":["KKLGKN+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen"],"dir":["ltr"]} \ No newline at end of file +{"page":183,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"T","dir":"ltr","width":"44.05","height":"59.78","transform":["59.78","0.00","0.00","59.78","122.67","455.57"],"fontName":"NVBKCW+RoyalInitialen","x":122.672,"y":455.56699999999995,"line":4} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectLinks.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectLinks.json index 819a775..ebf72bd 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectLinks.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectLinks.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 200, "items": 8461, - "groupedItems": 8321, + "groupedItems": 8324, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListItems.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListItems.json index fac8919..a86f043 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListItems.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListItems.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 199, "items": 8436, - "groupedItems": 8308, + "groupedItems": 8311, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListLevels.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListLevels.json index e11bdfc..9d1e066 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListLevels.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectListLevels.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 199, "items": 8436, - "groupedItems": 8308, + "groupedItems": 8311, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectTOC.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectTOC.json index 09d678b..a181108 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectTOC.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/detectTOC.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 200, "items": 8461, - "groupedItems": 8321, + "groupedItems": 8324, "changes": 55, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/removeRepetitiveItems.json b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/removeRepetitiveItems.json index e71f444..f185b97 100644 --- a/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/removeRepetitiveItems.json +++ b/examples/Adventures-Of-Sherlock-Holmes/removeRepetitiveItems.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 200, "items": 8844, - "groupedItems": 8519, + "groupedItems": 8522, "changes": 568, "schema": [ { @@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ {"page":36,"change":"Removal","score":"2.00: (1.00 + 1.00)","str":"ADVENTURE II. 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All in the golden afternoon -- I Down the Rabbit-Hole -- II The Pool of Tears -- III A Caucus-Race and a Long Tale -- IV The Rabbit Sends in a Little Bill -- V Advice from a Caterpillar -- VI Pig and Pepper -- VII A Mad Tea-Party -- VIII The Queen’s Croquet-Ground -- IX The Mock Turtle’s Story -- X The Lobster Quadrille -- XI Who Stole the Tarts? -- XII Alice’s Evidence - - - - - ## Poem ``` @@ -80,7 +60,6 @@ In Memory’s mystic band, Like pilgrim’s wither’d wreath of flowers Pluck’d in a far-off land. ``` - ## Chapter I ## Down the Rabbit-Hole @@ -100,16 +79,16 @@ There was nothing so very remarkable in that; nor did Alice think it so very much out of the way to hear the Rabbit say to it- self, ‘Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be late!’ -(when she thought it over afterwards, it occurred -to her that she ought to have wondered -at this, but at the time it all seemed -quite natural); but when the Rabbit actually -took a watch out of its waistcoat-pocket +(when she thought it over afterwards, it oc- +curred to her that she ought to have won- +dered at this, but at the time it all seemed +quite natural); but when the Rabbit actu- +ally took a watch out of its waistcoat-pocket and looked at it and then hurried on, Alice started to her feet, for it flashed across her mind that she had never before seen a rabbit -with either a waistcoat-pocket or a watch to take out of it, and burning with curiosity, -she ran across the field after it, and fortunately was just in time to see it +with either a waistcoat-pocket or a watch to take out of it, and burning with cu- +riosity, she ran across the field after it, and fortunately was just in time to see it pop down a large rabbit-hole under the hedge. In another moment down went Alice after it, never once considering how in the world she was to get out again. @@ -181,14 +160,14 @@ and Alice’s first thought was that it might belong to one of the doors of the hall, but, alas! either the locks were too large or the key was too small, but at any rate it would -not open any of them. However, on the second -time round, she came upon a low curtain -she had not noticed before and behind +not open any of them. However, on the sec- +ond time round, she came upon a low cur- +tain she had not noticed before and behind it was a little door about fifteen inches high; she tried the little golden key in the lock and to her great delight it fitted! Alice opened the door and found that it led into a small passage, not much -larger than a rat-hole; she knelt down and looked along the passage into the loveliest -garden you ever saw. How she longed to get out of that dark hall, and wan- +larger than a rat-hole; she knelt down and looked along the passage into the loveli- +est garden you ever saw. How she longed to get out of that dark hall, and wan- der about among those beds of bright flowers and those cool fountains, but she could not even get her head through the doorway; ‘and even if my head would go through,’ thought poor Alice, ‘it would be of very little use without my shoulders. @@ -201,8 +180,8 @@ ing by the little door, so she went back to the table, half hoping she might find another key on it or at any rate a book of rules for shutting people up like tele- -scopes; this time she found a little bottle -on it, (‘which certainly was not here +scopes; this time she found a little bot- +tle on it, (‘which certainly was not here before,’ said Alice,) and round the neck of the bottle was a paper label, with the words ‘DRINK ME’ beautifully printed @@ -226,8 +205,8 @@ pine-apple, roast turkey, toffee and hot buttered toast) she very soon finished * * * * * * * * * * ‘What a curious feeling!’ said Alice, ‘I must be shutting up like a telescope.’ -And so it was indeed: she was now only ten inches high and her face brightened -up at the thought that she was now the right size for going through the little +And so it was indeed: she was now only ten inches high and her face bright- +ened up at the thought that she was now the right size for going through the little door into that lovely garden. First, however, she waited for a few minutes to see if she was going to shrink any further; she felt a little nervous about this; ‘for it might end, you know,’ said Alice to herself, ‘in my going out altogether, like @@ -251,7 +230,7 @@ against herself, for this curious child was very fond of pretending to be two pe ‘But it’s no use now,’ thought poor Alice, ‘to pretend to be two people! Why, there’s hardly enough of me left to make one respectable person!’ Soon her eye fell on a little glass box that was lying under the table; she -opened it, and found in it a very small cake, on which the words ‘EATME’ were +opened it, and found in it a very small cake, on which the words ‘EAT ME’ were beautifully marked in currants. ‘Well, I’ll eat it,’ said Alice, ‘and if it makes me grow larger, I can reach the key; and if it makes me grow smaller, I can creep under the door; so either way I’ll get into the garden, and I don’t care which happens!’ @@ -262,9 +241,10 @@ generally happens when one eats cake, but Alice had got so much into the way of expecting nothing but out-of-the-way things to happen, that it seemed quite dull and stupid for life to go on in the common way. So she set to work, and very soon finished off the cake. + +``` * * * * * * * * * * - - +``` ## Chapter II ## The Pool of Tears @@ -293,7 +273,6 @@ HEARTHRUG, NEAR THE FENDER, (WITH ALICE’S LOVE). ``` - Oh dear, what nonsense I’m talking!’ Just then her head struck against the roof of the hall; in fact she was now more than nine feet high and she at @@ -307,11 +286,11 @@ ever; she sat down and began to cry again. might well say this), ‘to go on crying in this way! Stop this moment, I tell you!’ But she went on all the same, shedding gallons of tears, until there was a large pool all round her, about four inches deep and reaching half down the hall. -After a time she heard a little pattering -of feet in the distance and she +After a time she heard a little pat- +tering of feet in the distance and she hastily dried her eyes to see what -was coming. It was the White Rabbit -returning, splendidly dressed, with +was coming. It was the White Rab- +bit returning, splendidly dressed, with a pair of white kid gloves in one hand and a large fan in the other; he came trotting along in a great hurry, mutter- @@ -322,8 +301,8 @@ ing!’ Alice felt so desperate that she was ready to ask help of any one; so, when the Rabbit came near her, she began, in a low, timid voice, ‘If you -please, sir – ’ The Rabbit started violently, -dropped the white kid gloves and the fan, and skurried away into the +please, sir – ’ The Rabbit started vi- +olently, dropped the white kid gloves and the fan, and skurried away into the darkness as hard as he could go. Alice took up the fan and gloves, and, as the hall was very hot, she kept fanning herself all the time she went on talking, ‘Dear, dear! How queer everything is to- @@ -357,7 +336,6 @@ How neatly spread his claws, And welcome little fishes in With gently smiling jaws!’ ``` - ‘I’m sure those are not the right words,’ said poor Alice, and her eyes filled with tears again as she went on, ‘I must be Mabel after all, and I shall have to go and live in that poky little house and have next to no toys to play with, and oh! ever @@ -395,8 +373,8 @@ of tears which she had wept when she was nine feet high. ‘I wish I hadn’t cried so much!’ said Alice, as she swam about, trying -to find her way out, ‘I shall be punished -for it now, I suppose, by being +to find her way out, ‘I shall be pun- +ished for it now, I suppose, by being drowned in my own tears! That will be a queer thing, to be sure! However, everything is queer to-day.’ @@ -440,8 +418,8 @@ it must be really offended, ‘We won’t talk about her any more if you’d rat ‘We indeed!’ cried the Mouse, who was trembling down to the end of his tail, ‘As if I would talk on such a subject! Our family always hated cats: nasty, low, vulgar things! Don’t let me hear the name again!’ -‘I won’t indeed!’ said Alice, in a great hurry to change the subject of conversation, -‘Are you – are you fond – of – of dogs?’ The Mouse did not answer, +‘I won’t indeed!’ said Alice, in a great hurry to change the subject of con- +versation, ‘Are you – are you fond – of – of dogs?’ The Mouse did not answer, so Alice went on eagerly, ‘There is such a nice little dog near our house I should like to show you! A little bright-eyed terrier, you know, with oh, such long curly brown hair! And it’ll fetch things when you throw them and it’ll sit up and beg for @@ -460,7 +438,6 @@ and animals that had fallen into it: there were a Duck and a Dodo, a Lory and an Eaglet, and several other curious creatures. Alice led the way, and the whole party swam to the shore. - ## Chapter III ## A Caucus-Race and a Long Tale @@ -477,8 +454,8 @@ the Lory, who at last turned sulky, and would only say, ‘I am older than you and must know better’; and this Al- ice would not allow without knowing -how old it was and, as the Lory positively -refused to tell its age, there was +how old it was and, as the Lory posi- +tively refused to tell its age, there was no more to be said. At last the Mouse, who seemed to be a person of authority among them, @@ -499,7 +476,7 @@ conquest. Edwin and Morcar, the earls of Mercia and Northumbria – ” ’ speak?’ ‘Not I!’ said the Lory hastily. ‘I thought you did,’ said the Mouse, ‘ – I proceed. “Edwin and Morcar, the -earls of Mercia and Northumbria, declared for him; and even Stig and, the patriotic +earls of Mercia and Northumbria, declared for him; and even Stigand, the patriotic archbishop of Canterbury, found it advisable – ” ’ ‘Found what?’ said the Duck. ‘Found it,’ the Mouse replied rather crossly, ‘of course you know what “it” @@ -536,7 +513,7 @@ crowded round it, panting, and asking, ‘But who has won?’ This question the Dodo could not answer without a great deal of thought, and it sat for a long time with one finger pressed upon its forehead (the position in which you usually see Shakespeare, in the pictures of him), while the rest waited -in silence. At last the Dodo said, ‘every body has won, and all must have prizes.’ +in silence. At last the Dodo said, ‘everybody has won, and all must have prizes.’ ‘But who is to give the prizes?’ quite a chorus of voices asked. ‘Why, she, of course,’ said the Dodo, pointing to Alice with one finger; and the whole party at once crowded round her, calling out in a confused way, ‘Prizes! @@ -549,8 +526,8 @@ handed them round as prizes. There was exactly one a-piece all round. pocket?’ he went on, turning to Alice. ‘Only a thimble,’ said Alice sadly. ‘Hand it over here,’ said the Dodo. -Then they all crowded round her once more, while the Dodo solemnly presented -the thimble, saying, ‘We beg your acceptance of this elegant thimble’; and, +Then they all crowded round her once more, while the Dodo solemnly pre- +sented the thimble, saying, ‘We beg your acceptance of this elegant thimble’; and, when it had finished this short speech, they all cheered. Alice thought the whole thing very absurd, but they all looked so grave that she did not dare to laugh; and, as she could not think of anything to say, she simply @@ -563,10 +540,9 @@ down again in a ring and begged the Mouse to tell them something more. hate – C and D,’ she added in a whisper, half afraid that it would be offended again. ‘Mine is a long and a sad tale!’ said the Mouse, turning to Alice and sighing. -‘It isa long tail, certainly,’ said Alice, looking down with wonder at the +‘It is a long tail, certainly,’ said Alice, looking down with wonder at the Mouse’s tail; ‘but why do you call it sad?’ And she kept on puzzling about it while the Mouse was speaking, so that her idea of the tale was something like this: - ‘Fury said to a mouse, That he met in the @@ -615,8 +591,8 @@ thinking of?’ ‘I beg your pardon,’ said Alice very humbly, ‘you had got to the fifth bend, I think?’ ‘I had not!’ cried the Mouse, sharply and very angrily. -‘A knot!’ said Alice, always ready to make herself useful, and looking anxiously -about her, ‘Oh, do let me help to undo it!’ +‘A knot!’ said Alice, always ready to make herself useful, and looking anx- +iously about her, ‘Oh, do let me help to undo it!’ ‘I shall do nothing of the sort,’ said the Mouse, getting up and walking away, ‘You insult me by talking such nonsense!’ @@ -624,8 +600,8 @@ about her, ‘Oh, do let me help to undo it!’ know!’ The Mouse only growled in reply. ‘Please come back and finish your story!’ Alice called after it, and the others -all joined in chorus, ‘Yes, please do!’ but the Mouse only shook its head impatiently, -and walked a little quicker. +all joined in chorus, ‘Yes, please do!’ but the Mouse only shook its head impa- +tiently, and walked a little quicker. ‘What a pity it wouldn’t stay!’ sighed the Lory as soon as it was quite out of sight; and an old Crab took the opportunity of saying to her daughter, ‘Ah, my dear! Let this be a lesson to you never to lose your temper!’ – ‘Hold your tongue, @@ -652,7 +628,6 @@ while, however, she again heard a little pattering of footsteps in the distance she looked up eagerly, half hoping that the Mouse had changed his mind, and was coming back to finish his story. - ## Chapter IV ## The Rabbit Sends in a Little Bill @@ -781,8 +756,8 @@ one; Bill’s got the other – Bill! fetch it here, lad! – Here, put ’em up No, tie ’em together first – they don’t reach half high enough yet – Oh! they’ll do well enough; don’t be particular – Here, Bill! catch hold of this rope – Will the roof bear? – Mind that loose slate – Oh, it’s coming down! Heads below!’ (a loud -crash) ‘Now, who did that? – It was Bill, I fancy – Who’s to go down the chimney? -– Nay, I shan’t! you do it! – That I won’t, then! – Bill’s to go down – Here, +crash) ‘Now, who did that? – It was Bill, I fancy – Who’s to go down the chim- +ney? – Nay, I shan’t! you do it! – That I won’t, then! – Bill’s to go down – Here, Bill! the master says you’re to go down the chimney!’ ‘Oh! So Bill’s got to come down the chimney, has he?’ said Alice to herself, ‘Shy, they seem to put every- @@ -798,8 +773,8 @@ and waited to see what would happen next. The first thing she heard was a general chorus of ‘There goes Bill!’ then the Rabbit’s voice along – ‘Catch him, you by the hedge!’; then silence, and then -another confusion of voices – ‘Hold up his head – Brandy -now – Don’t choke him – How was it, old fellow? +another confusion of voices – ‘Hold up his head – Bran- +dy now – Don’t choke him – How was it, old fellow? What happened to you? Tell us all about it!’ Last came a little feeble, squeaking voice, (‘That’s Bill,’ thought Alice,) ‘Well, I hardly know – No more, @@ -820,7 +795,7 @@ of them hit her in the face. ‘I’ll put a stop to this,’ she said to hersel out, ‘You’d better not do that again!’ which produced another dead silence. Alice noticed with some surprise that the pebbles were all turning into little cakes as they lay on the floor, and a bright idea came into her head. ‘If I eat one -of these cakes,’ she thought, ‘it’s sure to makesomechange in my size; and as it +of these cakes,’ she thought, ‘it’s sure to make some change in my size; and as it can’t possibly make me larger, it must make me smaller, I suppose.’ So she swallowed one of the cakes and was delighted to find that she began shrinking directly. As soon as she was small enough to get through the door, she @@ -834,8 +809,8 @@ the wood, ‘is to grow to my right size again; and the second thing is to find way into that lovely garden. I think that will be the best plan.’ It sounded an excellent plan, no doubt, and very neatly and simply arranged; the only difficulty was, that she had not the smallest idea how to set about it; and -while she was peering about anxiously -among the trees, a little sharp +while she was peering about anx- +iously among the trees, a little sharp bark just over her head made her look up in a great hurry. An enormous puppy was looking @@ -882,7 +857,6 @@ and her eyes immediately met those of a large caterpillar, that was sitting on t top with its arms folded, quietly smoking a long hookah, and taking not the small- est notice of her or of anything else. - ## Chapter V ## Advice from a Caterpillar @@ -916,7 +890,7 @@ a butterfly, I should think you’ll feel it a little queer, won’t you?’ ‘Not a bit,’ said the Caterpillar. ‘Well, perhaps your feelings may be different,’ said Alice, ‘all I know is, it -would feel very queer tome.’ +would feel very queer to me.’ ‘You!’ said the Caterpillar contemptuously, ‘Who are you?’ Which brought them back again to the beginning of the conversation. Alice felt a little irritated at the Caterpillar’s making such very short remarks and she @@ -943,11 +917,13 @@ I don’t keep the same size for ten minutes together!’ different!’ Alice replied in a very melancholy voice. ‘Repeat “YOU ARE OLD, FATHER WILLIAM,” ’ said the Caterpillar. Alice folded her hands, and began: + +``` ‘You are old, Father William,’ the young man said, ‘And your hair has become very white; And yet you incessantly stand on your head – Do you think, at your age, it is right?’ - +``` ``` ‘In my youth,’ Father William replied to his son, ‘I feared it might injure the brain; @@ -963,18 +939,18 @@ Pray, what is the reason of that?’ ‘I kept all my limbs very supple By the use of this ointment – one shilling the box – Allow me to sell you a couple?’ +``` ‘You are old,’ said the youth, ‘and your jaws are too weak For anything tougher than suet; Yet you finished the goose, with the bones and the beak – Pray how did you manage to do it?’ -``` + ``` ‘In my youth,’ said his father, ‘I took to the law, And argued each case with my wife; And the muscular strength, which it gave to my jaw, Has lasted the rest of my life.’ ``` - ``` ‘You are old,’ said the youth, ‘one would hardly suppose That your eye was as steady as ever; @@ -1029,7 +1005,6 @@ there was no time to be lost, as she was shrinking rapidly; so she set to work a once to eat some of the other bit. Her chin was pressed so closely against her foot, that there was hardly room to open her mouth; but she did it at last and managed to swallow a morsel of the lefthand bit. - * * * * * * * * * * ‘Come, my head’s free at last!’ said Alice in a tone of delight, which changed into alarm in another moment, when she found that her shoulders were nowhere @@ -1084,7 +1059,7 @@ This was such a new idea to Alice, that she was quite silent for a minute or two, which gave the Pigeon the opportunity of adding, ‘You’re looking for eggs, I know that well enough; and what does it matter to me whether you’re a little girl or a serpent?’ -‘It matters a good deal tome,’ said Alice hastily, ‘but I’m not looking for eggs, +‘It matters a good deal to me,’ said Alice hastily, ‘but I’m not looking for eggs, as it happens; and if I was, I shouldn’t want yours: I don’t like them raw.’ ‘Well, be off, then!’ said the Pigeon in a sulky tone, as it settled down again into its nest. Alice crouched down among the trees as well as she could, for her @@ -1099,14 +1074,13 @@ strange at first; but she got used to it in a few minutes and began talking to h as usual, ‘Come, there’s half my plan done now! How puzzling all these changes are! I’m never sure what I’m going to be, from one minute to another! However, I’ve got back to my right size; the next thing is, to get into that beautiful garden – -how ist hat to be done, I wonder?’ As she said this, she came suddenly upon an +how is that to be done, I wonder?’ As she said this, she came suddenly upon an open place with a little house in it about four feet high. ‘Whoever lives there,’ thought Alice, ‘it’ll never do to come upon them this size; why, I should frighten them out of their wits!’ So she began nibbling at the righthand bit again and did not venture to go near the house till she had brought herself down to nine inches high. - ## Chapter VI ## Pig and Pepper @@ -1119,19 +1093,19 @@ him a fish) – and rapped loudly at the door with his knuckles. It was opened by another footman in livery, with a round face and large eyes like -a frog; and both footmen, Alice noticed, -had powdered hair that curled -all over their heads. She felt very curious -to know what it was all about and +a frog; and both footmen, Alice no- +ticed, had powdered hair that curled +all over their heads. She felt very curi- +ous to know what it was all about and crept a little way out of the wood to listen. -The Fish-Footman began by producing -from under his arm a great letter, -nearly as large as himself, and this +The Fish-Footman began by pro- +ducing from under his arm a great let- +ter, nearly as large as himself, and this he handed over to the other, saying, in a solemn tone, ‘For the Duchess. An -invitation from the Queen to play croquet.’ -The Frog-Footman repeated, in the same solemn tone, only changing the +invitation from the Queen to play cro- +quet.’ The Frog-Footman repeated, in the same solemn tone, only changing the order of the words a little, ‘From the Queen. An invitation for the Duchess to play croquet.’ Then they both bowed low, and their curls got entangled together. @@ -1140,10 +1114,10 @@ their hearing her; and when she next peeped out the Fish-Footman was gone, and the other was sitting on the ground near the door, staring stupidly up into the sky. Alice went timidly up to the door and knocked. -‘There’s no sort of use in knocking,’ said the Footman, ‘and that for two reasons. -First, because I’m on the same side of the door as you are; secondly, because -they’re making such a noise inside, no one could possibly hear you.’ And certainly -there was a most extraordinary noise going on within – a constant howling +‘There’s no sort of use in knocking,’ said the Footman, ‘and that for two rea- +sons. First, because I’m on the same side of the door as you are; secondly, because +they’re making such a noise inside, no one could possibly hear you.’ And cer- +tainly there was a most extraordinary noise going on within – a constant howling and sneezing, and every now and then a great crash, as if a dish or kettle had been broken to pieces. ‘Please, then,’ said Alice, ‘how am I to get in?’ @@ -1178,22 +1152,22 @@ a baby; the cook was leaning over the fire, stirring a large cauldron which seem to be full of soup. ‘There’s certainly too much pepper in that soup!’ Alice said to herself, as well as she could for sneezing. -There was certainly too much of it in the air. Even the Duchess sneezed occasionally; -and as for the baby, it was sneezing and howling alternately without +There was certainly too much of it in the air. Even the Duchess sneezed oc- +casionally; and as for the baby, it was sneezing and howling alternately without a moment’s pause. The only things in the kitchen that did not sneeze, were the cook, and a large cat which was sitting on the hearth and grinning from ear to ear. ‘Please would you tell me,’ said Alice, a little timidly, for she was not -quite sure whether it was good manners -for her to speak first, ‘why your +quite sure whether it was good man- +ners for her to speak first, ‘why your cat grins like that?’ ‘It’s a Cheshire cat,’ said the Duchess, ‘and that’s why. Pig!’ She said the last word with such sudden violence that Alice quite -jumped; but she saw in another moment -that it was addressed to the baby, +jumped; but she saw in another mo- +ment that it was addressed to the baby, and not to her, so she took courage, and went on again: ‘I didn’t know that Cheshire cats always grinned; in fact, I didn’t know that @@ -1223,7 +1197,6 @@ Alice glanced rather anxiously at the cook, to see if she meant to take the hint but the cook was busily stirring the soup, and seemed not to be listening, so she went on again, ‘Twenty-four hours, I think; or is it twelve? I – ’ - ‘Oh, don’t bother me,’ said the Duchess, ‘I never could abide figures!’ And with that she began nursing her child again, singing a sort of lullaby to it as she did so, and giving it a violent shake at the end of every line: @@ -1356,11 +1329,11 @@ much the most interesting, and perhaps as this is May it won’t be raving mad least not so mad as it was in March.’ As she said this, she looked up, and there was the Cat again, sitting on a branch of a tree. ‘Did you say pig or fig?’ said the Cat. -‘I said pig,’ replied Alice, ‘and I wish you wouldn’t keep appearing and vanishing -so suddenly: you make one quite giddy.’ +‘I said pig,’ replied Alice, ‘and I wish you wouldn’t keep appearing and van- +ishing so suddenly: you make one quite giddy.’ ‘All right,’ said the Cat; and this -time it vanished quite slowly, beginning -with the end of the tail, and +time it vanished quite slowly, begin- +ning with the end of the tail, and ending with the grin which remained some time after the rest of it had gone. ‘Well! I’ve often seen a cat with- @@ -1375,7 +1348,6 @@ of mushroom and raised herself to about two feet high; even then she walked up towards it rather timidly, saying to herself ‘Suppose it should be raving mad after all! I almost wish I’d gone to see the Hatter instead!’ - ## Chapter VII ## A Mad Tea-Party @@ -1406,10 +1378,10 @@ Hare. than three.’ ‘Your hair wants cutting,’ said the Hatter. He had been looking at Alice for some time with great curiosity, and this was his first speech. -‘You should learn not to make personal remarks,’ Alice said with some severity, -‘it’s very rude.’ +‘You should learn not to make personal remarks,’ Alice said with some sever- +ity, ‘it’s very rude.’ -The Hatter opened his eyes very wide on hearing this; but all he saidwas, +The Hatter opened his eyes very wide on hearing this; but all he said was, ‘Why is a raven like a writing-desk?’ ‘Come, we shall have some fun now!’ thought Alice. ‘I’m glad they’ve begun asking riddles. – I believe I can guess that,’ she added aloud. @@ -1510,8 +1482,8 @@ You know the song, perhaps?’ Like a tea-tray in the sky. Twinkle, twinkle – ” ’ ``` -Here the Dormouse shook itself and began singing in its sleep ‘Twinkle, twinkle, -twinkle, twinkle – ’ and went on so long that they had to pinch it to make it +Here the Dormouse shook itself and began singing in its sleep ‘Twinkle, twin- +kle, twinkle, twinkle – ’ and went on so long that they had to pinch it to make it stop. ‘Well, I’d hardly finished the first verse,’ said the Hatter, ‘when the Queen jumped up and bawled out, “He’s murdering the time! Off with his head!” ’ @@ -1540,8 +1512,8 @@ it’s done.’ ‘Once upon a time there were three little sisters,’ the Dormouse began in a great hurry, ‘and their names were Elsie, Lacie and Tillie; and they lived at the bottom of a well – ’ -‘What did they live on?’ said Alice, who always took a great interest in questions -of eating and drinking. +‘What did they live on?’ said Alice, who always took a great interest in ques- +tions of eating and drinking. ‘They lived on treacle,’ said the Dormouse, after thinking a minute or two. ‘They couldn’t have done that, you know,’ Alice gently remarked, ‘they’d have been ill.’ @@ -1605,8 +1577,8 @@ This piece of rudeness was more than Alice could bear; she got up in great disgust, and walked off; the Dormouse fell asleep instantly and -neither of the others took the least notice -of her going, though she looked +neither of the others took the least no- +tice of her going, though she looked back once or twice, half hoping that they would call after her; the last time she saw them, they were trying to put @@ -1625,7 +1597,6 @@ she was about a foot high; then she walked down the little passage; and then – found herself at last in the beautiful garden, among the bright flower-beds and the cool fountains. - ## Chapter VIII ## The Queen’s Croquet-Ground @@ -1662,7 +1633,7 @@ bowed low. ‘Would you tell me,’ said Alice, a little timidly, ‘why you are painting those roses?’ Five and Seven said nothing, but looked at Two. Two began in a low voice, -‘Why the fact is, you see, Miss, this here ought to have been are _red_ rose-tree, and +‘Why the fact is, you see, Miss, this here ought to have been a red rose-tree, and we put a white one in by mistake; and if the Queen was to find it out, we should all have our heads cut off, you know. So you see, Miss, we’re doing our best, afore she comes, to – ’ At this moment Five, who had been anxiously looking across @@ -1702,8 +1673,8 @@ children. ness of mine.’ The Queen turned crimson with -fury, and, after glaring at her for a moment -like a wild beast, screamed ‘Off +fury, and, after glaring at her for a mo- +ment like a wild beast, screamed ‘Off with her head! Off – ’ ‘Nonsense!’ said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen @@ -1717,8 +1688,8 @@ them over!’ The Knave did so, very carefully, with one foot. ‘Get up!’ said the Queen, in -a shrill, loud voice, and the three gardeners -instantly jumped up and began +a shrill, loud voice, and the three gar- +deners instantly jumped up and began bowing to the King, the Queen, the royal children and everybody else. ‘Leave off that!’ screamed the Queen, ‘You make me giddy.’ And then, turn- ing to the rose-tree, she went on, ‘What have you been doing here?’ @@ -1769,8 +1740,8 @@ generally, just as she had got its neck nicely straightened out, and was going to give the hedgehog a blow with its head, it would twist itself round and look -up in her face, with such a puzzled expression -that she could not help burst- +up in her face, with such a puzzled ex- +pression that she could not help burst- ing out laughing; and when she had got its head down and was going to begin again, it was very provoking to find that @@ -1880,7 +1851,6 @@ he had come back with the Duchess, it had entirely disappeared; so the King and the executioner ran wildly up and down looking for it, while the rest of the party went back to the game. - ## Chapter IX ## The Mock Turtle’s Story @@ -1895,7 +1865,7 @@ such a pleasant temper and thought to herself that perhaps it was only the pepper that had made her so savage when they met in the kitchen. -‘WhenI’ma Duchess,’ she said to +‘When I’m a Duchess,’ she said to herself, (not in a very hopeful tone though), ‘I won’t have any pepper in my kitchen at all. Soup does @@ -2025,14 +1995,14 @@ Gryphon, and the Gryphon answered, very nearly in the same words as be- fore, ‘It’s all his fancy, that; he hasn’t got no sorrow, you know. Come on!’ -So they went up to the Mock Turtle, -who looked at them with large +So they went up to the Mock Tur- +tle, who looked at them with large eyes full of tears, but said nothing. ‘This here young lady,’ said the Gryphon, ‘she wants for to know your history, she do.’ -‘I’ll tell it her,’ said the Mock Turtle -in a deep, hollow tone, ‘sit down, +‘I’ll tell it her,’ said the Mock Tur- +tle in a deep, hollow tone, ‘sit down, both of you, and don’t speak a word till I’ve finished.’ So they sat down, and nobody spoke for some minutes. Alice thought to her- @@ -2040,10 +2010,10 @@ self, ‘I don’t see how he can even finish, if he doesn’t begin.’ But she patiently. ‘Once,’ said the Mock Turtle at last, with a deep sigh, ‘I was a real Turtle.’ -These words were followed by a very long silence, broken only by an occasional -exclamation of ‘Hjckrrh!’ from the Gryphon and the constant heavy sob- +These words were followed by a very long silence, broken only by an occa- +sional exclamation of ‘Hjckrrh!’ from the Gryphon and the constant heavy sob- bing of the Mock Turtle. Alice was very nearly getting up and saying, ‘Thank -you, sir, for your interesting story,’ but she could not help thinking theremustbe +you, sir, for your interesting story,’ but she could not help thinking there must be more to come, so she sat still and said nothing. ‘When we were little,’ the Mock Turtle went on at last, more calmly, though still sobbing a little now and then, ‘we went to school in the sea. The master was @@ -2068,8 +2038,8 @@ that.’ ‘And washing?’ said the Mock Turtle. ‘Certainly not!’ said Alice indignantly. ‘Ah! then yours wasn’t a really good school,’ said the Mock Turtle in a tone -of great relief, ‘Now a tours they had at the end of the bill, “French, music, and -washing– extra.” ’ +of great relief, ‘Now at ours they had at the end of the bill, “French, music, and +washing – extra.” ’ ‘You couldn’t have wanted it much,’ said Alice, ‘living at the bottom of the sea.’ ‘I couldn’t afford to learn it.’ said the Mock Turtle with a sigh, ‘I only took @@ -2079,12 +2049,12 @@ the regular course.’ then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.’ ‘I never heard of “Uglification,” ’ Alice ventured to say, ‘What is it?’ -The Gryphon lifted up both its paws in surprise. ‘What! Never heard of uglifying!’ -it exclaimed, ‘You know what to beautify is, I suppose?’ +The Gryphon lifted up both its paws in surprise. ‘What! Never heard of ugli- +fying!’ it exclaimed, ‘You know what to beautify is, I suppose?’ ‘Yes,’ said Alice doubtfully, ‘it means – to – make – anything – prettier.’ ‘Well, then,’ the Gryphon went on, ‘if you don’t know what to uglify is, you -area simpleton.’ +are a simpleton.’ Alice did not feel encouraged to ask any more questions about it, so she turned to the Mock Turtle and said, ‘What else had you to learn?’ ‘Well, there was Mystery,’ the Mock Turtle replied, counting off the subjects @@ -2113,7 +2083,6 @@ made her next remark, ‘Then the eleventh day must have been a holiday?’ ‘That’s enough about lessons,’ the Gryphon interrupted in a very decided tone, ‘tell her something about the games now.’ - ## Chapter X ## The Lobster Quadrille @@ -2142,8 +2111,8 @@ when you’ve cleared all the jelly-fish out of the way – ’ ‘Swim after them!’ screamed the Gryphon. ‘Turn a somersault in the sea!’ cried the Mock Turtle, capering wildly about. ‘Change lobsters again!’ yelled the Gryphon at the top of its voice. -‘Back to land again and that’s all the first figure,’ said the Mock Turtle, suddenly -dropping his voice; and the two creatures, who had been jumping about like +‘Back to land again and that’s all the first figure,’ said the Mock Turtle, sud- +denly dropping his voice; and the two creatures, who had been jumping about like mad things all this time, sat down again very sadly and quietly and looked at Alice. ‘It must be a very pretty dance,’ said Alice timidly. @@ -2174,7 +2143,6 @@ Would not, could not, would not, could not, could not join the dance. ‘ “What matters it how far we go?” his scaly friend replied. “There is another shore, you know, upon the other side. ``` - ``` The further off from England the nearer is to France – Then turn not pale, beloved snail, but come and join the dance. @@ -2205,7 +2173,7 @@ why it’s called a whiting?’ ‘It does the boots and shoes.’ the Gryphon replied very solemnly. Alice was thoroughly puzzled. ‘Does the boots and shoes!’ she repeated in a wondering tone. -‘Why, what are yours hoes done with?’ said the Gryphon, ‘I mean, what +‘Why, what are your shoes done with?’ said the Gryphon, ‘I mean, what makes them so shiny?’ Alice looked down at them and considered a little before she gave her answer. ‘They’re done with blacking, I believe.’ @@ -2230,8 +2198,8 @@ Gryphon added ‘Come, let’s hear some of your adventures.’ a little timidly, ‘but it’s no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.’ ‘Explain all that,’ said the Mock Turtle. -‘No, no! The adventures first,’ said the Gryphon in an impatient tone, ‘explanations -take such a dreadful time.’ +‘No, no! The adventures first,’ said the Gryphon in an impatient tone, ‘expla- +nations take such a dreadful time.’ So Alice began telling them her adventures from the time when she first saw the White Rabbit. She was a little nervous about it just at first, the two creatures got so close to her, one on each side, and opened their eyes and mouths so very @@ -2260,7 +2228,6 @@ And will talk in contemptuous tones of the Shark, But, when the tide rises and sharks are around, His voice has a timid and tremulous sound. ``` - ‘That’s different from what I used to say when I was a child,’ said the Gryphon. ‘Well, I never heard it before,’ said the Mock @@ -2272,8 +2239,8 @@ ever happen in a natural way again. Mock Turtle. ‘She can’t explain it,’ said the Gryphon hastily, ‘Go on with the next verse.’ -‘But about his toes?’ the Mock Turtle persisted, -‘How could he turn them out with his nose, +‘But about his toes?’ the Mock Turtle per- +sisted, ‘How could he turn them out with his nose, you know?’ ‘It’s the first position in dancing.’ Alice said; but was dreadfully puzzled by the whole thing, @@ -2283,7 +2250,6 @@ and longed to change the subject. Alice did not dare to disobey, though she felt sure it would all come wrong, and she went on in a trembling voice: - ``` ‘I passed by his garden and marked, with one eye, How the Owl and the Panther were sharing a pie – ’ @@ -2294,7 +2260,6 @@ Was kindly permitted to pocket the spoon; While the Panther received knife and fork with a growl, And concluded the banquet – ``` - ‘What is the use of repeating all that stuff,’ the Mock Turtle interrupted, ‘if you don’t explain it as you go on? It’s by far the most confusing thing I ever heard!’ ‘Yes, I think you’d better leave off,’ said the Gryphon; and Alice was only too @@ -2326,7 +2291,7 @@ Pennyworth only of beautiful Soup? Beau – ootiful Soo – oop! Beau – ootiful Soo – oop! Soo – oop of the e – e – evening, -Beautiful, beauti –ful Soup!’ +Beautiful, beauti – ful Soup!’ ``` ‘Chorus again!’ cried the Gryphon, and the Mock Turtle had just begun to repeat it, when a cry of ‘The trial’s beginning!’ was heard in the distance. @@ -2340,7 +2305,6 @@ breeze that followed them, the melancholy words: ‘Soo – oop of the e – e – evening, Beautiful, beautiful Soup!’ ``` - ## Chapter XI ## Who Stole the Tarts? @@ -2354,8 +2318,8 @@ ing before them, in chains, with a soldier on each side to guard him; and near the King was the White Rabbit with a trumpet in one hand and a scroll of parchment in the other. -In the very middle of the court was a table, -with a large dish of tarts upon it; they +In the very middle of the court was a ta- +ble, with a large dish of tarts upon it; they looked so good, that it made Alice quite hungry to look at them – ‘I wish they’d get the trial done,’ she thought, ‘and hand round @@ -2405,7 +2369,6 @@ All on a summer day; The Knave of Hearts, he stole those tarts, And took them quite away!’ ``` - ‘Consider your verdict,’ the King said to the jury. ‘Not yet, not yet!’ the Rabbit hastily interrupted, ‘There’s a great deal to come before that!’ @@ -2434,8 +2397,8 @@ made a memorandum of the fact. ‘I keep them to sell,’ the Hatter added as an explanation; ‘I’ve none of my own. I’m a hatter.’ -Here the Queen put on her spectacles -and began staring at the Hatter, +Here the Queen put on her spec- +tacles and began staring at the Hatter, who turned pale and fidgeted. ‘Give your evidence,’ said the King, ‘and don’t be nervous, or I’ll @@ -2452,8 +2415,8 @@ her, ‘I can hardly breathe.’ ‘I can’t help it,’ said Alice very meekly, ‘I’m growing.’ ‘You’ve no right to grow here,’ said the Dormouse. ‘Don’t talk nonsense,’ said Alice more boldly, ‘you know you’re growing too.’ -‘Yes, but I grow at a reasonable pace,’ said the Dormouse, ‘not in that ridiculous -fashion.’ And he got up very sulkily and crossed over to the other side of the +‘Yes, but I grow at a reasonable pace,’ said the Dormouse, ‘not in that ridicu- +lous fashion.’ And he got up very sulkily and crossed over to the other side of the court. All this time the Queen had never left off staring at the Hatter, and, just as the Dormouse crossed the court, she said to one of the officers of the court, ‘Bring me @@ -2530,14 +2493,13 @@ that Dormouse out of court! Suppress him! Pinch him! Off with his whiskers!’ For some minutes the whole court was in confusion, getting the Dormouse turned out, and, by the time they had settled down again, the cook had disappeared. ‘Never mind!’ said the King, with an air of great relief. ‘Call the next witness.’ -And he added in an undertone to the Queen, ‘Really, my dear, you must cross examine -the next witness. It quite makes my forehead ache!’ -Alice watched the White Rabbit as he fumbled over the list, feeling very curious -to see what the next witness would be like, ‘ – for they haven’t got much +And he added in an undertone to the Queen, ‘Really, my dear, you must cross- +examine the next witness. It quite makes my forehead ache!’ +Alice watched the White Rabbit as he fumbled over the list, feeling very cu- +rious to see what the next witness would be like, ‘ – for they haven’t got much evidence yes,’ she said to herself. Imagine her surprise, when the White Rabbit read out, at the top of his shrill little voice, the name ‘Alice!’ - ## Chapter XII ## Alice’s Evidence @@ -2547,12 +2509,13 @@ in the flurry of the moment how large she had grown in the last few minutes, and she jumped up in such a hurry that she tipped over the jury-box with the -edge of her skirt, upsetting all the jurymen on to the heads of the crowd +edge of her skirt, upsetting all the ju- +rymen on to the heads of the crowd below, and there they lay sprawling about, reminding her very much of -a globe of goldfish she had accidentally -upset the week before. -‘Oh, I _beg_ your pardon!’ she ex- +a globe of goldfish she had acciden- +tally upset the week before. +‘Oh, I beg your pardon!’ she ex- claimed in a tone of great dismay and began picking them up again as quickly as she could, for the accident @@ -2564,8 +2527,8 @@ and put back into the jury-box or they would die. jurymen are back in their proper places – all,’ he repeated with great emphasis, looking hard at Alice as he said do. Alice looked at the jury-box and saw that, in her haste, she had put the Lizard -in head downwards and the poor little thing was waving its tail about in a melancholy -way, being quite unable to move. She soon got it out again and put it right; +in head downwards and the poor little thing was waving its tail about in a melan- +choly way, being quite unable to move. She soon got it out again and put it right; ‘not that it signifies much,’ she said to herself, ‘I should think it would be quite as much use in the trial one way up as the other.’ @@ -2653,7 +2616,6 @@ What would become of you? I gave her one, they gave him two, You gave us three or more; ``` - ``` They all returned from him to you, Though they were mine before. @@ -2670,12 +2632,11 @@ For this must ever be A secret kept from all the rest, Between yourself and me.’ ``` - ‘That’s the most important piece of evidence we’ve heard yet,’ said the King, rubbing his hands, ‘so now let the jury – ’ ‘If any one of them can explain it,’ said Alice, (she had grown so large in the last few minutes that she wasn’t a bit afraid of interrupting him,) ‘I’ll give him -six pence.I don’t believe there’s an atom of meaning in it.’ +sixpence. I don’t believe there’s an atom of meaning in it.’ The jury all wrote down on their slates, ‘She doesn’t believe there’s an atom of meaning in it,’ but none of them attempted to explain the paper. ‘If there’s no meaning in it,’ said the King, ‘that saves a world of trouble, you @@ -2741,11 +2702,11 @@ keep back the wandering hair that would always get into her eyes – and still a listened, or seemed to listen, the whole place around her became alive the strange creatures of her little sister’s dream. -The long grass rustled at her feet as the White Rabbit hurried by – the frightened -Mouse splashed his way through the neighbouring pool – she could hear the +The long grass rustled at her feet as the White Rabbit hurried by – the fright- +ened Mouse splashed his way through the neighbouring pool – she could hear the rattle of the teacups as the March Hare and his friends shared their never-ending -meal and the shrill voice of the Queen ordering off her unfortunate guests to execution -– once more the pig-baby was sneezing on the Duchess’s knee while plates +meal and the shrill voice of the Queen ordering off her unfortunate guests to exe- +cution – once more the pig-baby was sneezing on the Duchess’s knee while plates and dishes crashed around it – once more the shriek of the Gryphon, the squeaking of the Lizard’s slate-pencil and the choking of the suppressed guinea-pigs, filled the air, mixed up with the distant sobs of the miserable Mock Turtle. @@ -2765,7 +2726,5 @@ many a strange tale, perhaps even with the dream of Wonderland of long ago; and how she would feel with all their simple sorrows and find a pleasure in all their simple joys remembering her own child-life and the happy summer days. - -# THE END - +## THE END diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/compactLines.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/compactLines.json index f1a168e..aac9784 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/compactLines.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/compactLines.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3205, - "groupedItems": 2649, - "changes": 281, + "groupedItems": 2652, + "changes": 279, "schema": [ { "name": "line", @@ -98,10 +98,8 @@ {"page":16,"change":"Addition","str":"‘Why, she , of course,’ said the Dodo, pointing to Alice with one finger; and","line":19,"x":120.44300000000004,"y":443.2409999999995,"width":"367.04","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","LOFJZI+NimbusRomNo9L-ReguItal"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"CHAPTER III. A CAUCUS-RACE AND A LONG TALE 17","line":0,"x":102.884,"y":735.021,"width":"294.27","height":"11.96","fontName":["NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"‘It is a long tail, certainly,’ said Alice, looking down with wonder at the","line":2,"x":120.443,"y":688.8199999999999,"width":"360.69","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","LOFJZI+NimbusRomNo9L-ReguItal"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"law: I will prosecute","line":11,"x":173.75000000000003,"y":571.0059999999996,"width":"95.50","height":"11.96","fontName":["NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"you . – Come,","line":12,"x":202.09700000000004,"y":559.2679999999996,"width":"68.13","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"breath.” “I’ll be judge, I’ll","line":31,"x":173.75000000000003,"y":358.3419999999995,"width":"101.66","height":"10.91","fontName":["NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"‘I had not !’ cried the Mouse, sharply and very angrily.","line":49,"x":120.443,"y":187.3139999999996,"width":"256.73","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","LOFJZI+NimbusRomNo9L-ReguItal"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"you . – Come,","line":13,"x":202.09700000000004,"y":559.2679999999996,"width":"68.13","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":17,"change":"Addition","str":"‘I had not !’ cried the Mouse, sharply and very angrily.","line":52,"x":120.443,"y":187.3139999999996,"width":"256.73","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","LOFJZI+NimbusRomNo9L-ReguItal"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":18,"change":"Addition","str":"CHAPTER III. A CAUCUS-RACE AND A LONG TALE 18","line":0,"x":102.884,"y":735.021,"width":"294.27","height":"11.96","fontName":["NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":18,"change":"Addition","str":"dear! Let this be a lesson to you never to lose your temper!’ – ‘Hold your tongue,","line":9,"x":102.884,"y":587.6989999999997,"width":"382.39","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","LOFJZI+NimbusRomNo9L-ReguItal"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":19,"change":"Addition","str":"get me executed, as sure as ferrets are ferrets! Where can I have dropped them,","line":5,"x":102.884,"y":476.118,"width":"381.22","height":"11.96","fontName":["FZVLIH+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu","LOFJZI+NimbusRomNo9L-ReguItal"],"dir":["ltr"]} diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectBlocks.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectBlocks.json index 0a541fa..ee0ae49 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectBlocks.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectBlocks.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 75, "items": 3043, - "groupedItems": 2561, + "groupedItems": 2564, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectCodeBlocks.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectCodeBlocks.json index 798e62a..5afe3b5 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectCodeBlocks.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectCodeBlocks.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 75, "items": 3043, - "groupedItems": 2561, + "groupedItems": 2564, "changes": 219, "schema": [ { @@ -97,134 +97,134 @@ {"page":11,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"How neatly spread his claws,","dir":"ltr","width":"127.11","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","233.60","563.76"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":233.6,"y":563.7610000000002,"line":10,"block":25} {"page":11,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"And welcome little fishes in","dir":"ltr","width":"122.42","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","235.95","550.21"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":235.946,"y":550.2120000000002,"line":11,"block":25} {"page":11,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"With gently smiling jaws!’","dir":"ltr","width":"116.67","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","238.82","536.66"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":238.82,"y":536.6630000000002,"line":12,"block":25} -{"page":26,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"‘You are old, Father William,’ the 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you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, won’t you join the dance?","dir":"ltr","width":"297.41","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","148.45","505.98"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":148.44899999999998,"y":505.9780000000002,"line":14,"block":107} -{"page":60,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"“You can really have no notion how delightful it will be","dir":"ltr","width":"242.97","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","175.67","231.96"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":175.673,"y":231.963,"line":15,"block":108} -{"page":60,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"When they take us up and throw us, with the lobsters, out to sea!”","dir":"ltr","width":"286.38","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","153.96","218.41"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":153.964,"y":218.414,"line":16,"block":108} 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you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, will you join the dance?","dir":"ltr","width":"289.24","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","152.54","671.26"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":152.53500000000003,"y":671.258,"line":3,"block":109} -{"page":61,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, won’t you join the dance?” ’","dir":"ltr","width":"307.71","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","143.30","657.71"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":143.30200000000002,"y":657.7090000000001,"line":4,"block":109} -{"page":62,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":"‘ ’Tis the voice of the Lobster; I heard him declare,","dir":"ltr","width":"221.77","height":"10.91","transform":["10.91","0.00","0.00","10.91","186.27","246.38"],"fontName":"NGYXVM+NimbusRomNo9L-Regu-Slant_167","x":186.273,"y":246.379,"line":32,"block":112} 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b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFontStyles.json index 2a0694a..a5c5f7d 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFontStyles.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFontStyles.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3071, - "groupedItems": 2575, + "groupedItems": 2578, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFootnotes.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFootnotes.json index e88701f..06376ac 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFootnotes.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectFootnotes.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3071, - "groupedItems": 2575, + "groupedItems": 2578, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectHeaders.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectHeaders.json index fe90222..aba2446 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectHeaders.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectHeaders.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 75, "items": 3043, - "groupedItems": 2561, + "groupedItems": 2564, "changes": 28, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectLinks.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectLinks.json index 2a0694a..a5c5f7d 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectLinks.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectLinks.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3071, - "groupedItems": 2575, + "groupedItems": 2578, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListItems.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListItems.json index 1e3a7a8..4a8fd04 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListItems.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListItems.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 75, "items": 3043, - "groupedItems": 2561, + "groupedItems": 2564, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListLevels.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListLevels.json index ebf2434..6f25ebb 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListLevels.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectListLevels.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 75, "items": 3043, - "groupedItems": 2561, + "groupedItems": 2564, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectTOC.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectTOC.json index 58a0a52..c67d723 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectTOC.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/detectTOC.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3071, - "groupedItems": 2575, + "groupedItems": 2578, "changes": 53, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/removeRepetitiveItems.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/removeRepetitiveItems.json index 388a420..a2d0ad7 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/removeRepetitiveItems.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/removeRepetitiveItems.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3205, - "groupedItems": 2649, + "groupedItems": 2652, "changes": 194, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/sortbyX.json b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/sortbyX.json index 9426b07..c722e8d 100644 --- a/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/sortbyX.json +++ b/examples/Alice-In-Wonderland/sortbyX.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 76, "items": 3205, - "groupedItems": 2649, + "groupedItems": 2652, "changes": 3, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/CC-NC_Leitfaden.md b/examples/CC-NC_Leitfaden.md index 5b1f953..a3e38e7 100644 --- a/examples/CC-NC_Leitfaden.md +++ b/examples/CC-NC_Leitfaden.md @@ -1,15 +1,12 @@ +## Freies Wissen dank + +## Creative-Commons-Lizenzen + ``` -Freies Wissen dank +Paul Klimpel +Folgen, Risiken und Nebenwirkungen der Bedingung +»nicht-kommerziell – NC« ``` -Creative-Commons-Lizenzen - -##### Paul Klimpel - -##### Folgen, Risiken und Nebenwirkungen der Bedingung - -##### »nicht-kommerziell – NC« - - ``` Alle diese Lizenztypen gibt es ergänzt um das NC-Modul (noncommercial; keine kommerzielle Nutzung erlaubt). Aus den drei oben beschriebenen Lizenztypen werden dadurch sechs, nämlich noch zusätzlich: @@ -52,7 +49,7 @@ keine bearbeitungen. kommer- zielle Nutzungen sind dagegen erlaubt. ``` -## CC-Lizenzen +### CC-Lizenzen ``` Außerdem gibt es CC0, um Werke bedingungslos freizugeben. CC0 ist also eine umfas- @@ -60,7 +57,6 @@ sende Verzichtserklärung hinsichtlich aller rechte. Dadurch soll urhebern die M gegeben werden, ihre eigenen Werke selbst in die gemeinfreiheit zu überführen. CC0 soll nach der Vor- stellung von Creative Commons besonders für Datenbanken geeignet sein. ``` - ## vorWort Weltweit nutzen immer mehr Menschen die Jedermann-Lizenzen von Creative Commons (CC), @@ -80,51 +76,12 @@ die das mit sich bringt, kennen nur wenige. Wikimedia Deutschland, Creative Comm und iRights.info wollen das mit dieser Broschüre ändern. Wir freuen uns über Kritik und Anregungen zu diesem Versuch und wünschen viele Aha-Momente beim Nachschlagen. -### John H. Weitzmann +#### John H. Weitzmann CC DE Legal Project Lead - -Vorwort ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 -Einführung ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 - -1 ���� Was versteht man unter Open Content? .................................................................................................................................................^6 -2 ���� Warum werden Inhalte unter eine -CC-Lizenz gestellt? .................................................................................................................................................................................................^8 -3 ���� Warum gibt es unterschiedliche CC-Lizenzen? ................................................................................................................................... 9 -4 ���� Wie wirkt sich das NC-Modul darauf aus, wie Inhalte verbreitet werden? ..................................................................... 10 -5 ���� Was ist kommerziell? ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 -6 ���� Kann eine CC-Lizenz mit NC-Modul verhindern, dass meine Inhalte durch Rechtsradikale -oder andere Extremisten genutzt werden? .......................................................................................................................................... 12 -7 ���� Ich will, dass mein Inhalt unter einer CC-Lizenz frei zugänglich bleibt. Ist das NC-Modul die -einzige Möglichkeit, einer Aneignung von Inhalten durch kommerzielle Unternehmen -vorzubeugen? ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 -8 ���� Kann ein CC-NC lizenzierter Inhalt in die Wikipedia eingestellt werden? ..................................................................... 14 -9 ���� Kann man einen NC-lizenzierten Inhalt trotz dieser Einschränkung gesondert für Wikipedia -freigeben? ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 -10 �� Verhindert das NC-Modul, dass Inhalte kommerziell genutzt werden? ........................................................................... 15 -11 �� Bin ich bereit, gegen eine kommerzielle Nutzung meiner Inhalte vorzugehen? ........................................................ 16 -12 �� Können NC-lizenzierte Inhalte in Zeitungen abgedruckt werden? ..................................................................................... 16 -13 �� Können NC lizenzierte Inhalte in allen Schulen, Berufsschulen und Universitäten -genutzt werden? ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 -14 �� Wie ist es zu bewerten, wenn NC-lizenzierte Inhalte zunächst in der Schule verwendet, -dann aber auch außerhalb der Schule genutzt werden sollen? ............................................................................................^17 -15 �� Wie wirkt sich NC auf Mashups aus? .......................................................................................................................................................^18 -16 �� Darf ich als GEMA-Mitglied meine Musik zumindest unter eine CC-Lizenz mit -NC-Modul stellen? ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 -17 �� Kann eine kommerzielle Nutzung durch Dritte dem Urheber nutzen? ............................................................................^20 -18 �� Darf ein Nutzer von CC-lizenzierten -Inhalten den Eindruck erwecken, der Urheber würde die jeweilige Nutzung persönlich -unterstützen? ............................................................................................................................................................................................................^20 -19 �� Kann das NC-Modul bei CC-Lizenzen sinnvoll sein? ....................................................................................................................^21 -20 �� Unter welcher CC-Lizenz stehen Wikipedia-Inhalte? ...................................................................................................................^21 - -Literatur und Links zur Vertiefung .............................................................................................................................................................................^22 -Impressum .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................^23 - Inhalt - ## einFührung Mit den Creative-Commons-Lizenzen haben @@ -196,26 +153,25 @@ ungewollte Folgen für die Verbreitung von Inhal- ten. Die Entscheidung für das NC-Modul sollte daher wohl überlegt sein. ``` +#### Stell dir eine Welt vor, in der -## Stell dir eine Welt vor, in der +#### jeder Mensch an der Gesamtheit -## jeder Mensch an der Gesamtheit +#### des Wissens teilhaben kann. -## des Wissens teilhaben kann. - -## Das ist unsere Mission. +#### Das ist unsere Mission. Wikimedia Foundation -# 1 +## 1 -###### Was versteht man +## Was versteht man -###### unter Open COntent? +## unter Open COntent? -###### INhALtE, DIE FREI GENUtZt +INhALtE, DIE FREI GENUtZt -###### WERDEN KöNNEN. +WERDEN KöNNEN. Open Content, »offene Inhalte«, sind Inhalte, die offen und frei zugänglich – und zwar von @@ -286,7 +242,6 @@ ledge Foundation setzt sich für die Veröffentlichung, Nutzung und Wiederverwen von offenem Wissen ein. Ermöglicht wird dies durch freie Lizenzen, beispielhaft dafür sind Creative Commons und die General Public Licence (GPL). - sie eine neue Software schreiben, sondern auf dem aufbauen, was andere schon entwickelt haben. Zur Absicherung dieses Prinzips wurde @@ -326,20 +281,19 @@ lich geschützte Inhalte, wie Filme, Musik, Texte, Bilder und so weiter, können durch eine solche Lizenz frei genutzt werden. -# 2 +## 2 -###### Warum Werden +## Warum Werden -###### Inhalte unter eIne +## Inhalte unter eIne -###### CC-lIzenz gestellt? - -###### DAMIt SIE LEIChtER - -###### GENUtZt WERDEN - -###### KöNNEN. +## CC-lIzenz gestellt? +``` +DAMIt SIE LEIChtER +GENUtZt WERDEN +KöNNEN. +``` ``` Viele Kreative wollen, dass ihre Texte, ihre Musik oder ihre Filme von möglichst vielen @@ -365,7 +319,6 @@ ausdrücken können: »Jeder darf meine Inhalte in folgender Weise und unter folgenden Bedin- gungen nutzen.« ``` - Zur Verbreitung der CC-Lizenzen hat beigetra- gen, dass sie – gerade im Vergleich zu anderen Lizenzbedingungen – verhältnismäßig einfach @@ -401,20 +354,18 @@ Oft tragen kommerzielle Nutzungen ganz er- heblich zum Erfolg gerade von Kultur- und Bil- dungsarbeit bei. -# 3 +## 3 -###### Warum gIbt es unter- +## Warum gIbt es unter- -###### sChIedlIChe CC-lIzenzen? - -###### CC-LIZENZEN - -###### BERüCKSIChtIGEN DIE UNtER- - -###### SChIEDLIChEN INtERESSEN - -###### DER URhEBER. +## sChIedlIChe CC-lIzenzen? +``` +CC-LIZENZEN +BERüCKSIChtIGEN DIE UNtER- +SChIEDLIChEN INtERESSEN +DER URhEBER. +``` ``` Gemeinsam ist allen CC-Lizenzvarianten die Haltung, dass sie die Nutzung von Inhalten er- @@ -431,10 +382,9 @@ zulassen wollen. Einigen ist es besonders wichtig, dass ihr Werk unverändert bleibt und nicht ver- fälscht wird. Diese Kreativen können sich durch das Modul Keine Bearbeitung (abgekürzt ND -``` -- no derivatives) absichern und trotzdem andere +– no derivatives) absichern und trotzdem andere Nutzungen ihres Werks erlauben. - +``` ``` Anderen ist dagegen es besonders wichtig, dass ihre Werke in Collagen, Remixes und Mashups @@ -442,7 +392,6 @@ verwendet werden dürfen. Sie begreifen das Schaffen von Inhalten lediglich als Zwischen- stadium in einem Prozess. Ihre eigenen Inhalte ``` - sind aus Altem entstanden und sollen zu Neu- em weiterentwickelt werden. Wer aus dieser Haltung heraus eine CC-Lizenz vergibt, wird @@ -469,24 +418,22 @@ Nutzungsmöglichkeiten versperrt werden, die durchaus im Interesse Kreativen und Rechtein- haber liegen. -# 4 +## 4 -###### WIe WIrkt sICh das +## WIe WIrkt sICh das -###### nC-mOdul darauf aus, +## nC-mOdul darauf aus, -###### WIe Inhalte verbreItet +## WIe Inhalte verbreItet -###### Werden? - -###### NC-LIZENZIERtE INhALtE - -###### KöNNEN NICht SO WEIt UND - -###### NICht SO LEICht VERBREItEt - -###### WERDEN. +## Werden? +``` +NC-LIZENZIERtE INhALtE +KöNNEN NICht SO WEIt UND +NICht SO LEICht VERBREItEt +WERDEN. +``` ``` Wenn man seine Inhalte als NC kennzeichnet, können sie nicht in freie Wissensdatenbanken @@ -510,7 +457,6 @@ nahmen angewiesen, da sie nicht (ausschließlich) Einnahmen führt jedoch dazu, dass diese Institu- tionen als kommerziell gelten müssen. Sie dürfen ``` - also Inhalte, die mit einer CC-Lizenz versehen sind, die das NC-Modul beinhaltet, nicht ohne Nachfrage nutzen. @@ -520,23 +466,18 @@ NC-Bedingung unzulässig. Viele Blogger schal- ten Werbung, um ihre Server-Kosten zu decken oder sich einen Zuverdienst zu ermöglichen. Dadurch ist die Nutzung in diesen Blogs nicht - -- oder zumindest nicht mehr eindeutig – nicht- +– oder zumindest nicht mehr eindeutig – nicht- kommerziell. -# 5 +## 5 -###### Was Ist kOmmerzIell? +## Was Ist kOmmerzIell? -###### JEDE VERWENDUNG, DIE VOR- - -###### RANGIG AUF EINEN GESChäFt- - -###### LIChEN VORtEIL ODER EINE - -###### GELDWERtE VERGütUNG - -###### GERIChtEt ISt. +JEDE VERWENDUNG, DIE VOR- +RANGIG AUF EINEN GESChäFt- +LIChEN VORtEIL ODER EINE +GELDWERtE VERGütUNG +GERIChtEt ISt. Bei kommerzieller Nutzung denken viele zu- nächst an multinationale Unternehmen wie @@ -544,10 +485,10 @@ Microsoft oder Shell, an Börsenspekulationen, an das schnelle Geld oder fragwürdige Geschäf- temacherei. -**Die Bezeichnung kommerzielle Nutzung hat -nichts mit einer moralischen Wertung des Ge- -schäftsgebarens der jeweiligen Institution oder -Person zu tun, sondern beschreibt nur, dass** +**Die Bezeichnung kommerzielle Nutzung hat** +**nichts mit einer moralischen Wertung des Ge-** +**schäftsgebarens der jeweiligen Institution oder** +**Person zu tun, sondern beschreibt nur, dass** ``` diese einen geschäftlichen Vorteil erringen und @@ -593,7 +534,6 @@ Die schwierige Abgrenzung führt dazu, dass in vielen Fällen die Verantwortlichen vorsichtshal- ber keine CC-lizenzierten Inhalte übernehmen, ``` - wenn das NC-Modul mit in der Lizenz steht, selbst wenn sie im Ergebnis als nicht-kommerzi- elle Nutzer einzustufen wären. @@ -641,28 +581,26 @@ betreten wird. Ein Verzicht auf das NC-Modul und die Einschränkungen, die es mit sich bringt, vermeidet solche Unsicherheiten. ``` -# 6 +## 6 -###### kann eIne CC-lIzenz +## kann eIne CC-lIzenz -###### mIt nC-mOdul verhIndern, +## mIt nC-mOdul verhIndern, -###### dass meIne Inhalte durCh +## dass meIne Inhalte durCh -###### reChtsradIkale Oder +## reChtsradIkale Oder -###### andere extremIsten +## andere extremIsten -###### genutzt Werden? - -###### NEIN. ExtREMIStEN WOLLEN - -###### DIE GESELLSChAFt VERäNDERN - -###### UND NICht GESChäFtE - -#### MAChEN. +## genutzt Werden? +``` +NEIN. ExtREMIStEN WOLLEN +DIE GESELLSChAFt VERäNDERN +UND NICht GESChäFtE +MAChEN. +``` ``` Rechtsradikale und andere Extremisten verfolgen politische Ziele. Ihr Streben ist nicht kommerziell, @@ -675,7 +613,6 @@ siert. Insofern privilegiert eine NC-Lizenzierung in gewisser Weise sogar die Nutzung von Inhal- ten durch Extremisten. ``` - Anders ausgedrückt: Ein Wissenschaftler, der eine Untersuchung über den politischen Extremismus in Deutschland bei einem Verlag veröffentlichen @@ -687,31 +624,28 @@ ohne die Absicht der Gewinnerzielung, die for- mal als Verein auftritt, darf dieselben NC-lizen- zierten Inhalte dagegen ohne Weiteres nutzen. -# 7 +## 7 -###### ICh WIll, dass meIn Inhalt +## ICh WIll, dass meIn Inhalt -###### unter eIner CC-lIzenz freI +## unter eIner CC-lIzenz freI -###### zugänglICh bleIbt. Ist das +## zugänglICh bleIbt. Ist das -###### nC-mOdul dIe eInzIge mög- +## nC-mOdul dIe eInzIge mög- -###### lIChkeIt, eIner aneIgnung +## lIChkeIt, eIner aneIgnung -###### vOn Inhalten durCh kOm- +## vOn Inhalten durCh kOm- -###### merzIelle unternehmen +## merzIelle unternehmen -###### vOrzubeugen? +## vOrzubeugen? -###### NEIN. ES GIBt ANDERE MöG- - -###### LIChKEItEN, WIE DAS MODUL - -###### »WEItERGABE UNtER GLEIChEN - -###### BEDINGUNGEN«. +NEIN. ES GIBt ANDERE MöG- +LIChKEItEN, WIE DAS MODUL +»WEItERGABE UNtER GLEIChEN +BEDINGUNGEN«. Ein effizienterer Schutz dagegen, dass Dritte sich eines Inhalts bemächtigen und damit Geld verdie- @@ -760,25 +694,24 @@ kung, dass dadurch die Verbreitung der Inhalte generell (auch in Blogs usw.) erschwert wird, ganz im Gegenteil: Weil auch für alle Bearbeitungen ``` - eine CC-Lizenz gilt, kann diese bearbeitete Ver- sion nicht nur von dem Bearbeiter, sondern von jeden beliebigen Dritten später weiterverwendet werden. -# 8 +## 8 -###### kann eIn CC-nC lIzenzIerter +## kann eIn CC-nC lIzenzIerter -###### Inhalt In dIe WIkIpedIa eIn- +## Inhalt In dIe WIkIpedIa eIn- -###### gestellt Werden? +## gestellt Werden? -###### NEIN. WIKIPEDIA-INhALtE +NEIN. WIKIPEDIA-INhALtE -###### WERDEN AUCh KOMMERZIELL +WERDEN AUCh KOMMERZIELL -###### GENUtZt. +GENUtZt. Einer der Gründe für die weite Verbreitung und intensive Nutzung der Wikipedia ist, dass ihre @@ -789,8 +722,8 @@ Websites Wikipedia-Inhalte eins zu eins einbin- den, ohne vorher nachzufragen und dafür zu zahlen. -**Wikipedia profitiert sehr von der kommerzi- -ellen Nutzung ihrer Inhalte.** So wird etwa die +**Wikipedia profitiert sehr von der kommerzi-** +**ellen Nutzung ihrer Inhalte.** So wird etwa die Wikipedia in verschiedene Suchmaschinen integ- riert. Das fördert die Verbreitung der Wikipedia- Inhalte, also des gemeinsam erarbeiteten Wissens. @@ -840,26 +773,24 @@ wenn die CC-Lizenz, die standardmäßig bei der Wikipedia verwendet wird, das NC-Modul ent- halten hätte. ``` +## 9 -# 9 +## kann man eInen -###### kann man eInen +## nC-lIzenzIerten Inhalt -###### nC-lIzenzIerten Inhalt +## trOtz dIeser eInsChrän- -###### trOtz dIeser eInsChrän- +## kung gesOndert für -###### kung gesOndert für +## WIkI pedIa freIgeben? -###### WIkI pedIa freIgeben? +NEIN. DIE NUtZUNGSMöGLICh- -###### NEIN. DIE NUtZUNGSMöGLICh- +KEItEN VON WIKIPEDIA SOLLEN -###### KEItEN VON WIKIPEDIA SOLLEN - -###### NICht UNüBERSIChtLICh - -###### WERDEN. +NICht UNüBERSIChtLICh +WERDEN. Wikipedia lehnt Sondervereinbarungen ab – ge- nau wie alle anderen Initiativen und Projekte, die @@ -886,18 +817,18 @@ einer weiteren Zustimmung abhängt, in der Wikipedia nicht zulässig sind und gelöscht werden. ``` -# 10 +## 10 -###### verhIndert das nC-mOdul, +## verhIndert das nC-mOdul, -###### dass Inhalte kOmmerzIell +## dass Inhalte kOmmerzIell -###### genutzt Werden? - -###### JA. ABER OFt AN VOLLKOMMEN - -###### FALSChER StELLE. +## genutzt Werden? +``` +JA. ABER OFt AN VOLLKOMMEN +FALSChER StELLE. +``` ``` Die NC-Einschränkung bei einer CC-Lizenzie- rung verbietet zwar eine kommerzielle Nutzung, @@ -920,7 +851,6 @@ Dazu gehören öffentliche Institutionen, die mit kommerziellen Partnern zusammenarbeiten, aber auch Wissensdatenbanken wie Wikipedia, offe- ``` - ne Medienarchive oder Open-Source-Projekte. Alle Projekte, Initiativen und Institutionen, denen es ausdrücklich um den freien Zugang zu Wissen @@ -941,17 +871,17 @@ NC-Modul gerade dort seine größte Beachtung erfährt, wo seine Folgen am wenigsten beabsich- tigt werden. -# 11 +## 11 -###### bIn ICh bereIt, gegen eIne +## bIn ICh bereIt, gegen eIne -###### kOmmerzIelle nutzung meI- +## kOmmerzIelle nutzung meI- -###### ner Inhalte vOrzugehen? +## ner Inhalte vOrzugehen? -###### WENN NICht, SOLLtEN SIE DAS +WENN NICht, SOLLtEN SIE DAS -###### NC-MODUL üBERDENKEN. +NC-MODUL üBERDENKEN. Eine Creative-Commons-Lizenz mittels NC- Modul einzuschränken, ist nur dann sinnvoll, @@ -976,27 +906,25 @@ einer Nutzung absehen werden. Das aber sind im Zweifel diejenigen Nutzer, die gar nicht ab- geschreckt werden sollen. ``` -# 12 +## 12 -###### können nC-lIzenzIerte +## können nC-lIzenzIerte -###### Inhalte In zeItungen +## Inhalte In zeItungen -###### abgedruCkt Werden? - -###### NEIN. ZEItUNGEN GEhöREN - -###### IN JEDEM FALL ZU DEN KOMMER- - -###### ZIELLEN NUtZERN. +## abgedruCkt Werden? +``` +NEIN. ZEItUNGEN GEhöREN +IN JEDEM FALL ZU DEN KOMMER- +ZIELLEN NUtZERN. +``` ``` Zeitungen werden betrieben, um damit Einnah- men zu generieren; sie sind also auf einen ge- schäftlichen Vorteil und eine geldwerte Vergütung gerichtet. Daran ändert das Grundrecht auf Pres- ``` - sefreiheit und die große Bedeutung von Zeitun- gen für die Meinungsbildung und die öffentliche Debatte nichts. Die Einstufungen von Zeitungen @@ -1012,17 +940,17 @@ zung. Die Stärke der CC-Standardlizenzen be- steht jedoch gerade darin, dass nicht in jedem Einzelfall etwas vereinbart werden muss. -# 13 +## 13 -###### können nC-lIzenzIerte +## können nC-lIzenzIerte -###### Inhalte In allen sChulen, +## Inhalte In allen sChulen, -###### berufssChulen und unIver- +## berufssChulen und unIver- -###### sItäten genutzt Werden? +## sItäten genutzt Werden? -###### NEIN, NICht IN ALLEN. +NEIN, NICht IN ALLEN. Je nach Organisationsform des Bildungsträgers können Schulen, Berufsschulen und Universitä- @@ -1039,10 +967,9 @@ können. Solche Bildungseinrichtungen sind auf eigene Einnahmen angewiesen. Mit dieser Ori- entierung, eigene Einnahmen zu erzielen, ist ihre Tätigkeit auf eine geldwerte Vergütung gerichtet -``` -- und zwar in einem Maße, das nicht als vernach- +– und zwar in einem Maße, das nicht als vernach- lässigbar gewertet werden kann. - +``` ``` Je geringer die öffentliche Förderung ist, je grö- ßer ist zumeist die Notwendigkeit, zusätzliche @@ -1055,29 +982,24 @@ mals benachteiligt, weil sie keine CC-lizenzierten Inhalte nutzen dürfen, bei denen das NC-Modul in der Lizenz enthalten ist. ``` -# 14 +## 14 -###### WIe Ist es zu beWerten, +## WIe Ist es zu beWerten, -###### Wenn nC-lIzenzIerte Inhal- +## Wenn nC-lIzenzIerte Inhal- -###### te zunäChst In der sChule - -###### verWendet, dann aber auCh - -###### ausserhalb der sChule ge- - -###### nutzt Werden sOllen? - -###### BEI VERWENDUNG AUSSERhALB - -###### DER SChULE KANN EINE NUt- - -###### ZUNG LEICht ALS KOMMERZIELL - -###### BEWERtEt WERDEN. +## te zunäChst In der sChule +## verWendet, dann aber auCh +``` +ausserhalb der sChule ge- +nutzt Werden sOllen? +BEI VERWENDUNG AUSSERhALB +DER SChULE KANN EINE NUt- +ZUNG LEICht ALS KOMMERZIELL +BEWERtEt WERDEN. +``` Die Nutzung von CC-lizenzierten Inhalten, bei denen das NC-Modul in der Lizenz enthalten ist, ist innerhalb von öffentlichen Schulen kein Prob- @@ -1149,17 +1071,16 @@ und auf eine Verfolgung verzichten wird. Dann aber muss man sich fragen, warum man das NC-Modul überhaupt auswählt (siehe Frage 11). ``` -# 15 +## 15 -###### WIe WIrkt sICh nC auf - -###### mashups aus? - -###### NICht ALLE CC-LIZENZEN SIND - -###### MItEINANDER KOMBINIERBAR. +## WIe WIrkt sICh nC auf +## mashups aus? +``` +NICht ALLE CC-LIZENZEN SIND +MItEINANDER KOMBINIERBAR. +``` Werke, die unter einer CC-BY-SA-Lizenz (Attri- bution-Share-Alike, also Namensnennung und Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen) ste- @@ -1195,22 +1116,21 @@ genutzt hatten, schnell in einen Graubereich, in dem man der Nutzung einen kommerziellen Charakter zusprechen kann. -# 16 +## 16 -###### darf ICh als gema-mItglIed +## darf ICh als gema-mItglIed -###### meIne musIk zumIndest un- +## meIne musIk zumIndest un- -###### ter eIne CC-lIzenz mIt nC- +## ter eIne CC-lIzenz mIt nC- -###### mOdul stellen? - -###### NEIN. GEMA-MItGLIEDSChAFt - -###### UND CC-LIZENZEN SIND NICht - -###### MItEINANDER VEREINBAR. +## mOdul stellen? +``` +NEIN. GEMA-MItGLIEDSChAFt +UND CC-LIZENZEN SIND NICht +MItEINANDER VEREINBAR. +``` ``` Durch einen Wahrnehmungsvertrag mit der GEMA übertragen Musiker – genauer gesagt @@ -1234,7 +1154,6 @@ schließliche Wahrnehmung ihrer Rechte im di- gitalen Zeitalter nicht in ihrem Interesse ist. Sie wollen selbst entscheiden können, ob sie einzelne ``` - Stücke unter ein flexibleres Lizenzsystem stellen möchten. Einige Künstler sind deshalb bereits aus der GEMA ausgetreten. Dies hat jedoch eine @@ -1250,21 +1169,20 @@ Verwertungsgesellschaften für andere Kunstbe- reiche in Deutschland erlauben es ihren Mitglie- dern, CC-Lizenzen zu nutzen. -# 17 +## 17 -###### kann eIne kOmmerzIelle +## kann eIne kOmmerzIelle -###### nutzung durCh drItte dem +## nutzung durCh drItte dem -###### urheber nutzen? +## urheber nutzen? -###### JA. WENN MAN SEINE INhALtE +JA. WENN MAN SEINE INhALtE +WEIt VERBREItEN WILL, SOLLtE -###### WEIt VERBREItEN WILL, SOLLtE +MAN KOMMERZIELLE NUtZUN- -###### MAN KOMMERZIELLE NUtZUN- - -###### GEN ZULASSEN. +GEN ZULASSEN. Eine kommerzielle Nutzung ist nicht von vorn- herein eine schlechte Nutzung. Überall dort, wo @@ -1279,26 +1197,25 @@ sollten jeden Verbreitungsweg nutzen, der ih- nen offen steht, da die möglichst weite Verbrei- tung von Inhalten im Vordergrund steht. ``` -# 18 +## 18 -###### darf eIn nutzer vOn +## darf eIn nutzer vOn -###### CC-lIzenzIerten Inhalten +## CC-lIzenzIerten Inhalten -###### den eIndruCk erWeCken, +## den eIndruCk erWeCken, -###### der urheber Würde dIe +## der urheber Würde dIe -###### jeWeIlIge nutzung persön- +## jeWeIlIge nutzung persön- -###### lICh unterstützen? - -###### NEIN. EINE CC-LIZENZ BEINhAL- - -###### tEt KEINE PERSöNLIChE - -###### UNtERStütZUNG. +## lICh unterstützen? +``` +NEIN. EINE CC-LIZENZ BEINhAL- +tEt KEINE PERSöNLIChE +UNtERStütZUNG. +``` ``` CC lässt die Urheberpersönlichkeitsrechte un- angetastet. Ein CC-Lizenzgeber kann verlan- @@ -1308,18 +1225,17 @@ zen oder gutheißen. Diese in den USA als no endorsement bekannte Klausel wurde dort schon gerichtlich durchgefochten. ``` +## 19 -# 19 +## kann das nC-mOdul -###### kann das nC-mOdul +## beI CC-lIzenzen sInnvOll -###### beI CC-lIzenzen sInnvOll +## seIn? -###### seIn? +JA, ABER SEhR VIEL SELtENER, -###### JA, ABER SEhR VIEL SELtENER, - -###### ALS VIELE DENKEN. +ALS VIELE DENKEN. Für Privatleute gibt es in der Regel keine gu- ten Gründe für eine Beschränkung auf nicht- @@ -1354,14 +1270,15 @@ kommerziellen Bereichen von Bildung und Wis- senschaft verbreitet werden, da dies den Absatz im klassischen Vertrieb fördern kann. ``` -# 20 +## 20 -###### unter WelCher CC-lIzenz +## unter WelCher CC-lIzenz -###### stehen WIkIpedIa-Inhalte? - -###### UNtER DER CC-BY-SA-LIZENZ +## stehen WIkIpedIa-Inhalte? +``` +UNtER DER CC-BY-SA-LIZENZ +``` ``` Damit das Gemeingut des freien Wissens und der freien Kultur wächst, verlangt die Wikipe- @@ -1385,7 +1302,6 @@ Initiative. Die Free Software Foundation hatte diese Lizenz ursprünglich für Software-Dokumen- tationen entwickelt, deshalb war sie für die Wiki- ``` - pedia zu kompliziert und eigentlich nicht geeignet. Gleichwohl mussten die GFDL-Open-Content- Lizenzen nicht umgestellt werden, als Wikipedia @@ -1408,17 +1324,19 @@ bei Wikipedia folgendes: Die Namensnennung soll erfolgen: -- durch einen Hyperlink (wenn möglich) oder - eine URL auf die Seite, zu der man beigetra- - gen hat, -- durch einen Hyperlink (wenn möglich) oder - eine URL auf eine alternative, stabile, frei - zugängliche, lizenzkonforme Online-Kopie, - welche die Autoren in einer zum ursprüngli- - chen Text gleichwertigen Weise nennt, oder -- durch eine Liste sämtlicher Autoren. Jede - Autorenliste kann um sehr kleine oder irre- - levante Beiträge gekürzt werden. +– durch einen Hyperlink (wenn möglich) oder +eine URL auf die Seite, zu der man beigetra- +gen hat, + +– durch einen Hyperlink (wenn möglich) oder +eine URL auf eine alternative, stabile, frei +zugängliche, lizenzkonforme Online-Kopie, +welche die Autoren in einer zum ursprüngli- +chen Text gleichwertigen Weise nennt, oder + +– durch eine Liste sämtlicher Autoren. Jede +Autorenliste kann um sehr kleine oder irre- +levante Beiträge gekürzt werden. Das Modul No Derivatives (keine Bearbeitun- gen – ND) ist für Wikipedia-Beiträge unzulässig. @@ -1462,13 +1380,11 @@ Nutzungsbedingungen der Wikimediafoundation: http://wikimediafoundation.org/wiki/Nutzungsbedin- gungen ``` - ## impressum Freies Wissen dank Creative-Commons-Lizenzen Folgen, Risiken und Nebenwirkungen der Bedin- gung »nicht-kommerziell – NC« - Autor: Dr. Paul Klimpel, iRights.info Redaktion: Valie Djordjevic, John H. Weitzmann, @@ -1491,7 +1407,7 @@ redaktion@irights.info Creative Commons Deutschland c/o EEAR gGmbH und newthinking communications Graefestraße 59, 10967 Berlin -[http://www.creativecommons.de](http://www.creativecommons.de) +[www.creativecommons.de](www.creativecommons.de) legal@creativecommons.de Verantwortlich für den Inhalt: @@ -1529,7 +1445,7 @@ Eine vereinfachte Darstellung der durch die Lizenz gegebenen Freiheiten ist zu finden unter https://creati- vecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/ ``` -## Paul Klimpel +### Paul Klimpel ``` Rechtsanwalt & Leiter iRightsLab Kultur @@ -1549,7 +1465,6 @@ Kulturelles Erbe und Digitale Welt des Internet & Gesellschaft Co:llaboratory. Seit 2012 ist er Leiter des iRightsLab Kultur. ``` - Die »Jeder- mann-Lizenzen« @@ -1569,4 +1484,3 @@ Beschränkung der CC-Lizenz auf nicht-kommerzielle Nutzung. - diff --git a/examples/CC_License_Agreement_of_siMPle.md b/examples/CC_License_Agreement_of_siMPle.md index 20fef00..4cc24d0 100644 --- a/examples/CC_License_Agreement_of_siMPle.md +++ b/examples/CC_License_Agreement_of_siMPle.md @@ -1,15 +1,13 @@ -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` -## Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4. +# Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 # International Public License Agreement of siMPle – -# Software for the automated detection of microplastic - +``` +Software for the automated detection of microplastic +``` ``` By exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by -the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4. +the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International Public License ("Public License"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in @@ -49,10 +47,6 @@ agreements. f. Exceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material. - -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` g. License Elements means the license attributes listed in the name of a Creative Commons Public License. The License Elements of this Public License are Attribution and ShareAlike. @@ -85,27 +79,23 @@ Section 2 – Scope. a. License grant. 1. Subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You - a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to - exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to: +a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to +exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to: A. reproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and B. produce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material. 2. Exceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations - apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with - its terms and conditions. +apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with +its terms and conditions. 3. Term. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a). 4. Media and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to - exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter - created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives - and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical - modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications +exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter +created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives +and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical +modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications - -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` ``` necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces @@ -127,22 +117,22 @@ if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Li Material. 6. No endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as - permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, - connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or - others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i). +permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, +connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or +others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i). b. Other rights. 1. Moral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor - are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent - possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the - Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but - not otherwise. +are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent +possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the +Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but +not otherwise. 2. Patent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License. 3. To the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the - exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any - voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the - Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties. +exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any +voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the +Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties. ``` Section 3 – License Conditions. @@ -154,10 +144,6 @@ a. Attribution. 1. If You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must: - -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` ``` A. retain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material: i. identification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to @@ -168,17 +154,15 @@ ii. a copyright notice; iii. a notice that refers to this Public License; iv. a notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties; - -``` v. a URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable -``` + ``` Citing siMPle in academic papers: ``` -- Primpke, S., A. Dias, P., Gerdts, G., Anal. Methods 11, 2138 – 2147. (2019) +- Primpke, S., A. Dias, P., Gerdts, G., Anal. Methods 11, 2138–2147. (2019) - Liu, F., Olesen, K.B., Borregaard, A.R., Vollertsen, J., Sci. Total Environ. 671. (2019) - Raman database: Cabernard, L.; Roscher, L.; Lorenz, C.; Gerdts, G.; Primpke, S., Environmental Science -& Technology 52 (22), 13279- 13288 (2018) +& Technology 52 (22), 13279-13288 (2018) ``` B. indicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous @@ -187,11 +171,11 @@ C. indicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and inc of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License. ``` 2. You may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the - medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it - may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource - that includes the required information. +medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it +may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource +that includes the required information. 3. If requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by - Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable. +Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable. b. ShareAlike. ``` @@ -199,18 +183,14 @@ In addition to the conditions in Section 3(a), if You Share Adapted Material You the following conditions also apply. ``` 1. The Adapter’s License You apply must be a Creative Commons license with the same - License Elements, this version or later, or a BY-SA Compatible License. +License Elements, this version or later, or a BY-SA Compatible License. 2. You must include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, the Adapter's License You apply. - You may satisfy this condition in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, - and context in which You Share Adapted Material. +You may satisfy this condition in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, +and context in which You Share Adapted Material. 3. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply - any Effective Technological Measures to, Adapted Material that restrict exercise of the - rights granted under the Adapter's License You apply. +any Effective Technological Measures to, Adapted Material that restrict exercise of the +rights granted under the Adapter's License You apply. - -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` ``` Section 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights. ``` @@ -228,10 +208,12 @@ purposes of Section 3(b); and c. You must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database. + +``` For the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights. - +``` ``` Section 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability. ``` @@ -259,10 +241,6 @@ and waiver of all liability. ``` Section 6 – Term and Termination. ``` - -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` a. This Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically. @@ -271,7 +249,7 @@ b. Where Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6( reinstates: 1. automatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of - Your discovery of the violation; or +Your discovery of the violation; or 2. upon express reinstatement by the Licensor. ``` @@ -282,7 +260,7 @@ c. For the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License. -d. Sections 1 , 5 , 6 , 7 , and 8 survive termination of this Public License. +d. Sections [^1]:, [^5]:, [^6]:, [^7]:, and [^8]: survive termination of this Public License. ``` Section 7 – Other Terms and Conditions. @@ -309,10 +287,6 @@ affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions. c. No term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor. - -``` -Developed by Aalborg University, Denmark and Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany -``` d. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority. @@ -321,10 +295,7 @@ the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority. Creative Commons is not a party to its public licenses. Notwithstanding, Creative Commons may elect to apply one of its public licenses to material it publishes and in those instances will be considered the “Licensor.” The text of the Creative Commons public -``` -### licenses is dedicated to the public domain under the CC0 Public Domain Dedication. - -``` +licenses is dedicated to the public domain under the CC0 Public Domain Dedication. Except for the limited purpose of indicating that material is shared under a Creative Commons public license or as otherwise permitted by the Creative Commons policies published at creativecommons.org/policies, Creative Commons does not authorize the @@ -337,4 +308,3 @@ the avoidance of doubt, this paragraph does not form part of the public licenses ``` Creative Commons may be contacted at creativecommons.org. ``` - diff --git a/examples/Closed-Syllables.md b/examples/Closed-Syllables.md index 8a54d55..14e4808 100644 --- a/examples/Closed-Syllables.md +++ b/examples/Closed-Syllables.md @@ -1,6 +1,3 @@ -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` # Drill Bits # Drill Bits Phonics-oriented word lists for teachers @@ -30,27 +27,19 @@ Syllable Type 3: Open syllables — long vowel sound (GO, TRI, CU Syllable Type 4: r-controlled syllables (HARD, PORCH, PERT) Syllable Type 5: consonant-l-e words (CANDLE, TABLE, MUZZLE) Syllable Type 6: Vowel pairs — unique sounds (OUT, PAW), long vowel sounds (MAIN, COACH) - Where syllables are broken down into different vowel sounds, easily confused vowels such as e and i are separated, so that the order of presentation is A-I-O-U-E-Y instead of the alphabetical A-E-I-O-U-Y. - For the first syllable types, there are lists which focus on specific problems students may have, such as syllables with blends or without beginning consonants. (Not every student needs the skills broken down into small steps.) As the sound patterns advance, the first lists are still those which do not require the student to have picked up common patterns which have not been taught. - More comprehensive lists follow, which include other syllable patterns and exceptional patterns such as -- TION and -TURE. In this way, teachers can choose appropriate words to include in an individual +-TION and -TURE. In this way, teachers can choose appropriate words to include in an individual student’s program. - Separate lists address some of the common special categories. Instead of telling students that NATION is one of so many words which are exceptions because the t in NATION does not make the sound it makes - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` in TIN, the student can learn there are thousands of words he or she can master by knowing that -TION often is pronounced SHUN. By learning that TI says SH in many other cases (-TIAL,- TIOUS), even more words can be unlocked. @@ -58,32 +47,13 @@ words can be unlocked. This section has word lists for closed syllables. It’s an edited, updated version of the PDF I already shared. -“short a” ......................................................................................................................................... 3 - -“short I” ............................................................................................................................................ 8 - -“short o” ......................................................................................................................................... 10 - -“short u” ......................................................................................................................................... 12 - -E ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 - -Y ..................................................................................................................................................... 16 - - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Syllable type 1: Closed syllables - SHORT A — EASY WORDS Have the student read each word in the word progressions and discover the connection between changing a consonant and changing the sounds in the word. - An important and often overlooked part of this process is having the student figure out and explain in his or her own words what is happening when consonants change. The thought processes that he or she goes through to get beyond intuitively recognizing the effect of the change, to the point of being able to explain it, help lay the foundations for being able to transfer that knowledge successfully. - At first this may be laborious and its worth questionable, especially if the student is accurately reading. And, since at this stage of teaching you’re trying to establish trust and successful habits, use your judgment if the talking-out task is frustrating. However, it’s precisely the connections between action @@ -102,10 +72,7 @@ sound like (and if there is still hesitation, show INK and then change the k to end. It also rhymes with WINKED. The hard nonsense syllables may be too frustrating to introduce at first. There may be students who need a lot of practice with the two sounds of c and g, so a special list is included. Too often a student has mastered vowel pairs — but still pronounces CENT as KENT. - ABOUT THOSE EXCEPTIONS - -```  Consider CHR as in CHRIS as a category to be taught as its own mini-lesson and incorporated into drill and review with the other letter/sound associations. CH is /k/ in many words of Greek derivation. The longer and more scientific the word, the more likely CH will represent the /k/ @@ -119,11 +86,7 @@ sound (-OST, -OLD). These would be considered special categories. For the reason they shouldn’t be introduced at the same time the student is learning closed syllables with short o sounds. O is also pronounced differently in different areas of the country. Students may confuse COM with CALM. If so, point out that CALM starts with the sounds of the word CALL, -``` -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` then adds an m at the end. Stretch out the l part of CALM (CAL-L-L-L-LM DOWN) and have the student discover the different feeling of the word.  A similar confusion may occur between COW and CAL, which can be addressed in the same @@ -140,2994 +103,1391 @@ choose useful words and learn the closed syllables with y in the context of thos students play hangman, the words where y is a vowel may prove very popular for the word givers. - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Word progressions - at - cat - sat - sad - had - lad - glad - lad - lack - quack - sack - slack - stack - smack - smash - mash - ash - at ``` at -``` -``` sat -``` -``` spat -``` -``` splat -``` -``` splash -``` -``` flash -``` -``` flask -``` -``` ask -``` -``` mask -``` -``` mast -``` -``` last -``` -``` past -``` -``` pat -``` -``` at -``` -``` ax -``` -``` tax ``` ``` ash -``` -``` hash -``` -``` mash -``` -``` trash -``` -``` track -``` -``` tract -``` -``` act -``` -``` fact -``` -``` fast -``` -``` fat -``` -``` flat -``` -``` that -``` -``` splat -``` -``` splash -``` -``` trash -``` -``` thrash ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Basic short a syllables - Ab - fash - quap - nax - grat - fract - grav ``` glam -``` -``` shrap -``` -``` jab -``` -``` scrab -``` -``` val -``` -``` asm ``` ``` alt* -``` -``` mag -``` -``` gand -``` -``` ag -``` -``` prac -``` -``` wax ``` -``` atch -``` -``` ack -``` -``` lask -``` -``` flam -``` -``` quag -``` -``` plat -``` -``` yak -``` Syllables with blends flam - grat - sprat - scram - thrax - strag - blan ``` clam -``` -``` fraz -``` -``` plast -``` -``` shrag -``` -``` splam -``` -``` drast -``` -``` bran ``` ``` swag -``` -``` graph -``` -``` cras -``` -``` smank -``` -``` prax -``` -``` wrath -``` -``` glash ``` ``` blab -``` -``` brack -``` -``` spratch -``` -``` glant ``` Without beginning consonant - ag - apt - ank - ash - ap ``` ant -``` -``` ac -``` -``` ad -``` -``` am -``` -``` amp ``` ``` az -``` -``` al* -``` -``` ab -``` -``` asm -``` -``` af ``` ``` ax -``` -``` atch -``` -``` alt* -``` -``` aph -``` -``` act -``` -``` alp* -``` -```  *As in ‘altitude’, not alternative ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Especially Challenging Syllables - phland quank thrant shrap slank stratch - pram blap swaft cath whamp stract - clasm rapt Vocabulary Enrichment - brash rant spasm grasp shank drab - chap sham shag clash bland cram - prank malt clad daft flank graft - chasm thrash slab cran dram asp - hasp yak flax span clan ban - dank swank yak shad ``` Words with different ‘a’ sound – pay attention to the patterns  ``` call - stall - squall - fall - mall - stall - small - swall - salt - malt ``` balt -``` -``` phalt -``` -``` twad -``` -``` halt -``` -``` thank -``` -``` flank -``` -``` stank -``` -``` swank -``` -``` crank ``` ``` thank -``` -``` rang -``` -``` sang -``` -``` sprang -``` -``` bang -``` -``` clang -``` -``` squat -``` -``` swat -``` -``` swab ``` ``` swap -``` -``` stalk -``` -``` scald -``` -``` chalk -``` -``` walk -``` -``` bald -``` -``` quaff -``` -``` calm -``` -``` balm ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` -## CLOSED SYLLABLES: SHORT I - +CLOSED SYLLABLES: SHORT I Short I word progression - it - fit - hit ``` quit -``` -``` sit -``` -``` sip ``` ``` lip -``` -``` slip -``` -``` yip ``` ``` quip -``` -``` quiz -``` -``` quick ``` ``` quit -``` -``` risk -``` -``` frisk ``` Basic syllables - lix - inct - lib - twis - pict - im - inch - jim ``` kip -``` -``` dif -``` -``` ipt -``` -``` shrim -``` -``` ism -``` -``` chig -``` -``` quib ``` ``` vid -``` -``` gid -``` -``` yit -``` -``` gist -``` -``` zil -``` -``` tric -``` -``` splin ``` ``` sprit -``` -``` kish -``` -``` itch -``` -``` shriv -``` -``` fric -``` -``` plish -``` -``` twid ``` Syllables with Blends - brit - stim - fris - squin - strict ``` writ -``` -``` smin -``` -``` swiv -``` -``` lisk -``` -``` ism ``` ``` ilt -``` -``` tinct -``` -``` ipt -``` -``` crin -``` -``` prish ``` ``` thrill -``` -``` chrit -``` -``` blimp -``` -``` ink -``` -``` sprin ``` ``` scrib -``` -``` ing -``` -``` rift -``` -``` slim -``` -``` dwin ``` Syllables without a beginning consonant - ism - im - inc - it ``` ilt -``` -``` ipt -``` -``` ink -``` -``` ing ``` ``` in -``` -``` inct ``` ``` inch -``` -``` itch -``` -``` inge -``` -``` ill ``` ``` ic ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` isp - id - ig - ish - idge ``` ist -``` -``` ilk -``` -``` il -``` -``` ind ``` Vocabulary Enrichment sprint - shrill - jig - skill - skimp - shrimp - thrift ``` grim -``` -``` strict -``` -``` kilt -``` -``` writ -``` -``` spilt -``` -``` chrism -``` -``` flit ``` ``` script -``` -``` brink -``` -``` vim -``` -``` glitch -``` -``` strict -``` -``` nix ``` ``` glib -``` -``` shrift -``` -``` rift -``` -``` squid -``` -``` miff -``` -``` brig ``` ``` grid -``` -``` grist -``` -``` brisk -``` -``` twinge -``` -``` shtick ``` a, i multisyllable nonsense review --Includes special category syllables - salpig - laprag - imcash - rifsam - frintap ``` blapstag -``` -``` mistflad -``` -``` twiljam -``` -``` danquim ``` ``` shigman -``` -``` thrapism -``` -``` implist -``` -``` valdip ``` ``` stanting -``` -``` biftril -``` -``` dalnaft -``` -``` safdis ``` ``` trimplast -``` -``` radvil -``` -``` stalgram -``` -``` haspic ``` a, I basic syllables review - chisp - frag - ad - in ``` ist -``` -``` strad -``` -``` sist -``` -``` inct ``` ``` hap -``` -``` link ``` ``` grat -``` -``` imp -``` -``` twim -``` -``` sprat ``` ``` chris* -``` -``` ast -``` -``` quib -``` -``` squill ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` anch - shat ``` ish -``` -``` asm -``` -``` ang -``` -``` glam -``` -``` isk -``` -``` ab -``` -``` fash -``` -``` im -``` -``` dras -``` -``` ic ``` ``` gic -``` -``` cig -``` -``` mand -``` -``` brash -``` -``` rift -``` -``` squip -``` -``` rav -``` -``` glatch -``` -``` phic -``` -``` shrap -``` -``` apt -``` -``` ipt -``` -``` amp -``` -``` ict -``` -``` act id -``` -``` ad -``` -``` ish ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Closed Syllables: Short O - Word Progressions - PROGRESSION 1 - top - stop - slop - flop - flog ``` log -``` -``` lob -``` -``` slob -``` -``` slot -``` -``` lot ``` ``` pot -``` -``` plot -``` -``` plod -``` -``` prod -``` -``` pod ``` ``` rod -``` -``` cod -``` -``` shod -``` -``` shop -``` -``` shock ``` ``` stock -``` -``` sock -``` -``` mock -``` -``` mom -``` -``` mob ``` -## PROGRESSION 2 - +PROGRESSION 2 mob - glob - slop - slob - rob ``` throb -``` -``` shop -``` -``` clop -``` -``` clod -``` -``` trod ``` ``` shod -``` -``` log -``` -``` bob -``` -``` blob -``` -``` cob ``` ``` fob -``` -``` gob -``` -``` hob -``` -``` job -``` -``` lob ``` -``` mob -``` -``` sob -``` -``` sock -``` -``` frock -``` -``` shock -``` PROGRESSION 3 - shock - smock - stock ``` lock -``` -``` flock -``` -``` flog ``` ``` dog -``` -``` frog -``` -``` bog ``` ``` botch -``` -``` notch -``` -``` scotch ``` ``` scoff -``` -``` doff -``` -``` toff ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Basic Syllables – omit “chron” if student hasn’t learned the ‘chr’ special category. - ob - vom - yonk - quon - bol ``` ston -``` -``` com -``` -``` coc -``` -``` cos -``` -``` fol ``` ``` ox -``` -``` bot -``` -``` chron* -``` -``` hom -``` -``` trop ``` ``` bod -``` -``` rost -``` -``` holl -``` -``` lob -``` -``` pont ``` ``` gond -``` -``` tox -``` -``` osk -``` -``` strom ``` Vocabulary Enrichment - frond - throb - opt - clot - blot ``` bloc -``` -``` blob -``` -``` clod -``` -``` grog -``` -``` prod ``` ``` doff -``` -``` fob -``` -``` bond -``` -``` Bronx -``` -``` throng ``` ``` splotch -``` -``` cog -``` -``` posh -``` -``` romp -``` -``` lob ``` ``` chock -``` -``` broth -``` -``` smock -``` -``` phlox ``` a, I, o basic syllables review - *skip chron and chris if student hasn’t learned the “chr” pattern yet. - clom - writ - snag - oct - om - ism - asm - osm ``` im -``` -``` ad -``` -``` shriv -``` -``` scot -``` -``` chris* -``` -``` chron* -``` -``` wrath -``` -``` strad ``` ``` bom -``` -``` drif -``` -``` wint -``` -``` inc -``` -``` apt -``` -``` drom -``` -``` twip -``` -``` thrax ``` ``` sprill -``` -``` dwin -``` -``` vom -``` -``` quip -``` -``` quon -``` -``` squin -``` -``` ash ``` ``` cim -``` -``` cint -``` -``` kom -``` -``` mast -``` -``` drab -``` -``` hom -``` -``` stinct ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Two and three syllable words with a, i, and o - consist - contact - astonish - admonish - district - cosmic - combat - napkin - ostrich - contract - caltrop - transpond - constrict - optic - quondam - oblong - codfish - bombastic - discomfit - tomtom - mascot ``` tonsil -``` -``` jonquil -``` -``` agnostic -``` -``` contrast -``` -``` abscond -``` -``` insist -``` -``` inflict -``` -``` instinct -``` -``` distinct -``` -``` indistinct -``` -``` district -``` -``` kingpin -``` -``` victim -``` -``` misprint -``` -``` pigskin -``` -``` anthrax -``` -``` lambast -``` -``` flatfish -``` -``` napkin -``` -``` dishpan -``` -``` dishrag ``` ``` zigzag -``` -``` Finland -``` -``` candid -``` -``` kidnap -``` -``` frantic -``` -``` tranquil -``` -``` bandit -``` -``` transfix -``` -``` disband -``` -``` miscast -``` -``` pilgrim -``` -``` brandish -``` -``` windbag -``` -``` mantis -``` -``` baptism -``` -``` drastic -``` -``` fantastic -``` -``` plastic -``` -``` sandwich -``` -``` mishap -``` -``` baptist ``` ``` tinsmith -``` -``` tactic -``` -``` impact -``` -``` intact -``` -``` aspic ``` -## WORDS - -## WITH - -## DOUBLE - -## LETTERS - ``` +WORDS +WITH +DOUBLE +LETTERS gossip -``` -``` shopping -``` -``` commit -``` -``` bobbin -``` -``` soffit -``` -``` rabbit -``` -``` tannic ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` -## SHORT U - +SHORT U Word Progressions - up - cup - cut - cub - rub ``` shrub -``` -``` scrub -``` -``` stub -``` -``` stump -``` -``` slump ``` ``` clump -``` -``` rump -``` -``` trump -``` -``` truck -``` -``` trust ``` ``` rust -``` -``` rut -``` -``` hut -``` -``` hug -``` -``` rug ``` ``` shrug -``` -``` drug -``` -``` drum -``` -``` plum -``` -``` plump ``` Basic Syllables - mus - tux - tub - rupt - sug ``` sub -``` -``` lug -``` -``` hud -``` -``` junct -``` -``` sud ``` ``` yup -``` -``` punct -``` -``` rud -``` -``` jum -``` -``` hum ``` ``` scut -``` -``` mum -``` -``` sput -``` -``` nun -``` -``` pum ``` ``` sus -``` -``` suc -``` -``` sum -``` -``` mund -``` -``` flus ``` Basic Blends - blust - rupt - trum - clut - frug ``` guv -``` -``` struct -``` -``` fluct -``` -``` ump -``` -``` flust ``` ``` shrug -``` -``` funct -``` -``` truc -``` -``` drun -``` -``` glud ``` ``` spud -``` -``` splud -``` -``` runk -``` -``` flut -``` -``` grub ``` ``` crump -``` -``` bund -``` -``` lunt -``` -``` stut -``` -``` scrub ``` Without Beginning Consonant - un - up - ug - unc - ush ``` ust -``` -``` ump -``` -``` ud -``` -``` unct -``` -``` ut ``` ``` umb -``` -``` und -``` -``` us -``` -``` uck -``` -``` unk ``` ``` ux -``` -``` ub -``` -``` uct -``` -``` upt ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` UL words and syllables - full - dull - mull - cull - gull ``` bull -``` -``` cul -``` -``` cult -``` -``` dult -``` -``` sult ``` ``` hulk -``` -``` bulk -``` -``` sulk -``` -``` mult ``` ``` bulb -``` -``` culc -``` -``` ult -``` -``` vul ``` ``` dul -``` -``` ulk -``` -``` ul ``` Multi-syllable words with a, I, o, u - (*pronounce adult as “ad - ult” with short a, not ‘uh-dult’) - fungus - tiptop - disgust - mistrust - construct - instruct - conduct - adjust ``` disrupt -``` -``` unzip -``` -``` adjunct -``` -``` pundit -``` -``` uncommon -``` -``` influx -``` -``` drumlin -``` -``` callus ``` ``` induct -``` -``` unsnap -``` -``` obstruct -``` -``` cuspit -``` -``` updraft -``` -``` submit -``` -``` subsist -``` -``` mustang ``` ``` campus -``` -``` abduct -``` -``` sunlamp -``` -``` album -``` -``` brushland -``` -``` WITH UL -``` -``` adult * -``` -``` Istanbul -``` -``` culprit ``` ``` pulpit -``` -``` fulcrum -``` -``` insult -``` -``` consult -``` -``` sultan -``` -``` bashful -``` -``` handful -``` -``` cupful -``` -``` wilful ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` -## SHORT E - -## WORD PROGRESSIOSN - +SHORT E +WORD PROGRESSIOSN ed - red - fred - bred - bed ``` bet -``` -``` jet -``` -``` pet -``` -``` wet -``` -``` whet ``` ``` fret -``` -``` set -``` -``` sent -``` -``` bent -``` -``` went ``` ``` west -``` -``` quest -``` -``` quench -``` -``` bench -``` -``` stench ``` ``` step -``` -``` strep -``` -``` stretch -``` -``` fetch -``` -``` fed ``` Basic Syllables - fess - zed - dren - vex - ject - elt ``` rel -``` -``` wren -``` -``` vent -``` -``` lect -``` -``` vest -``` -``` gest ``` ``` trem -``` -``` rel -``` -``` cred -``` -``` cem -``` -``` cess -``` -``` gel ``` ``` cept -``` -``` phren -``` -``` ex -``` -``` em -``` -``` empt ``` ``` reft -``` -``` ef -``` -``` met -``` -``` esc ``` Syllables with blends - fret - ench - rept - trem - cred - est ``` clem -``` -``` brell -``` -``` shelt -``` -``` dren -``` -``` elk ``` ``` feld -``` -``` temp -``` -``` flex -``` -``` stress -``` -``` shred ``` ``` squelch -``` -``` plent -``` -``` splen -``` -``` tress -``` -``` fled ``` ``` gresh -``` -``` sprent -``` -``` blen -``` -``` venge -``` -``` esh ``` c/g practice - cent - cest - cem ``` cell -``` -``` cept -``` -``` cess ``` ``` ence -``` -``` edge -``` -``` enge ``` ``` gest -``` -``` gent -``` -``` gel ``` ``` gen -``` -``` gem -``` -``` gex ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Syllables without a beginning consonant - ex - eb - ent - et ``` est -``` -``` elm -``` -``` ef -``` -``` elk ``` ``` ed -``` -``` empt -``` -``` em -``` -``` esk ``` ``` en -``` -``` ect -``` -``` el -``` -``` ev ``` ``` esh -``` -``` eld -``` -``` elf -``` -``` end ``` Vocabulary enrichment – single syllable - left - press - fleck - mess - squelch ``` heft -``` -``` end -``` -``` flesh -``` -``` shred -``` -``` clench ``` ``` deft -``` -``` wren -``` -``` mesh -``` -``` elk -``` -``` drench ``` ``` crest -``` -``` smelt -``` -``` quench -``` -``` cleft ``` ``` flex -``` -``` yen -``` -``` dwell -``` -``` vet ``` Multisyllable words - convent - magnet - contest - pummel - descant - selfish - contest - conquest ``` suggest -``` -``` ingest -``` -``` congest -``` -``` absent -``` -``` enchantment -``` -``` dispel -``` -``` splendid -``` -``` compel ``` ``` tendril -``` -``` suspect -``` -``` extend -``` -``` advent -``` -``` spectrum -``` -``` subject -``` -``` inject -``` -``` falcon ``` ``` entrap -``` -``` impel -``` -``` insect -``` -``` shrapnel -``` -``` convex -``` -``` inspect -``` -``` impending -``` -``` contend ``` ``` consent -``` -``` connect -``` -``` comment -``` -``` happen ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Y as a Vowel - Real Words: - Lynn - gym ``` rhythm -``` -``` crypt ``` ``` lymph -``` -``` gyp ``` ``` lynx -``` -``` lynch ``` ``` hymn -``` -``` myth ``` Y following c or g - gypt - cym ``` cyg -``` -``` gyn ``` ``` cyl -``` -``` cyst ``` Syllables - sys - cym - cyg - dys - mys - hys - crys - byss ``` bysm -``` -``` clysm -``` -``` tyl -``` -``` nym -``` -``` cryl -``` -``` thyst -``` -``` lys -``` -``` lyst ``` ``` lyt -``` -``` rysm -``` -``` syl -``` -``` lypt -``` -``` cryph -``` -``` cyp -``` -``` glyph -``` -``` typ ``` ``` cyl -``` -``` phyx -``` -``` phys -``` -``` sym -``` -``` sympt -``` -``` sync -``` -``` byt -``` -``` byz ``` ``` phyll -``` -``` myst -``` -``` gypt -``` -``` chrys -``` -``` nyx -``` -``` synth ``` - -``` -Phonics word lists by Susan Jones licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International -``` Multisyllable words with y as closed syllable vowel - includes all syllable types & some categories. It’s a cool list  - synthetic - mystical - cylinder - syncopate - chrysanthemum - lymph - cygnet - physical - gym - analytic - apocalyptic - anonymity - aneurysm - anaphylactic - synthesis - mystery - pygmy - synchronize - crypt - lymphatic ``` cynic -``` -``` encyclical -``` -``` cyclical -``` -``` gypsum -``` -``` paralysis -``` -``` cryptic -``` -``` acronym -``` -``` physicist -``` -``` physics -``` -``` syllable -``` -``` rhythm -``` -``` idyll -``` -``` crystal -``` -``` cyst -``` -``` typical -``` -``` misogynist -``` -``` gymnasium -``` -``` analysis -``` -``` onyx -``` -``` catalyst ``` ``` polygamy -``` -``` myth -``` -``` hieroglyphic -``` -``` syndrome -``` -``` chlorophyll -``` -``` acrylic -``` -``` cystic -``` -``` dysfunction -``` -``` dyslexic -``` -``` gypsy -``` -``` paralytic -``` -``` anonymous -``` -``` amethyst -``` -``` cynical -``` -``` Egypt -``` -``` Phyllis -``` -``` Yvonne ``` - diff --git a/examples/ExamplePdf.md b/examples/ExamplePdf.md index 2438b34..7fc1b40 100644 --- a/examples/ExamplePdf.md +++ b/examples/ExamplePdf.md @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ accumsan risus in purus facilisis interdum. Aliquam tincidunt condimentum est, s venenatis orci. Fusce neque nibh, dapibus et volutpat sit amet, consectetur ac quam. Sed pharetra faucibus arcu, at interdum dui ornare ut. Aliquam sodales, magna et euismod congue, ipsum diam tempus sapien, vel aliquet tortor dolor ut purus. Aenean aliquet ut erat vitae dictum. Fusce eget -ultrices magna. Sed egestas mi nec rutrum iaculis. Phasellus condimentum[^3] , urna sit amet sodales +ultrices magna. Sed egestas mi nec rutrum iaculis. Phasellus condimentum[^3], urna sit amet sodales accumsan, lacus risus cursus ipsum, et rhoncus ligula mi et nibh. In consequat a risus a accumsan. Pellentesque nec lacus sodales eros laoreet pretium non ac erat. @@ -91,15 +91,14 @@ _Und ein kursiver Setzt der einen eingeschlossen Link, nämlich [http://pdf2md.m [^7]: Fussnote in einer Liste - ## Listen Nun eine Liste mit dash’s: - Eintrag 1 - Eintrag 2, aber mit so langem Text, das er umbricht. Wirklich, wirklich lang. Breche du Zeile. Na - los. Na endlich. Vielleicht sollt ich das auf 3 Zeilen erweitern? Na ja, schaden kann es ja nicht. - Also los! +los. Na endlich. Vielleicht sollt ich das auf 3 Zeilen erweitern? Na ja, schaden kann es ja nicht. +Also los! - Eintrag 3 Und Untergruppen: @@ -126,18 +125,18 @@ Nummerierte Liste: 1. Eins 2. Zwei, aber mit so langem Text, das er umbricht. Wirklich, wirklich lang. Breche du Zeile. Na los. - Na endlich. Vielleicht sollt ich das auf 3 Zeilen erweitern? Na ja, schaden kann es ja nicht. Also - los! +Na endlich. Vielleicht sollt ich das auf 3 Zeilen erweitern? Na ja, schaden kann es ja nicht. Also +los! 3. Drei 4. Vier. Und auch hier wieder ein etwas längerer Text, so dass der Eintrag über mehrere Zeilen - geht! +geht! Zentrierte Liste: - Eintrag 1 - Eintrag 2, aber mit so langem Text, das er umbricht. Wirklich, wirklich lang. Breche du Zeile. - Na los. Na endlich. Vielleicht sollt ich das auf 3 Zeilen erweitern? Na ja, schaden kann es - ja nicht. Also los! +Na los. Na endlich. Vielleicht sollt ich das auf 3 Zeilen erweitern? Na ja, schaden kann es +ja nicht. Also los! - Eintrag 3 Zwei aufeinander folgende Listen: @@ -177,7 +176,6 @@ der Parser das sauber trennen kann: - Eintrag 2 Und danach kommt auch gleicht was. - ## Quotes & Spezielle Einschübe[^8] Das hier ist wieder ein normaler Absatz. Das interessante ist der nachfolgende Teil, der @@ -190,7 +188,7 @@ spiegelt dann ein leerer Schreibtisch wider? - Albert Einstein So, das war ja schonmal ein guter Anfang. Hier noch ein Einzeiler: ``` -Phantasie ist wichtiger als Wissen , denn Wissen[^9] ist begrenzt. - Albert Einstein[^10] +Phantasie ist wichtiger als Wissen, denn Wissen[^9] ist begrenzt. - Albert Einstein[^10] ``` Und nun mehrere Quotes hintereinander: diff --git a/examples/Flash-Masques-Temperature.md b/examples/Flash-Masques-Temperature.md index 4e920b3..02c6e55 100644 --- a/examples/Flash-Masques-Temperature.md +++ b/examples/Flash-Masques-Temperature.md @@ -7,19 +7,7 @@ ``` avec le soutien de ``` -## lF - -## a - -## sh - -## - - -## M - -## asque - -### Etude n° 2 +_Etude n° 2_ ``` Le 26 mars dernier, le guide des spécifi- @@ -32,15 +20,10 @@ récipients de la vie courante permettant de maintenir de l’eau chaude à 60°C pendant au moins 1/2 heure. Voici l’étude ``` -``` CC $ BY NC ND -``` -``` -Florence Bost • 06 82 69 89 82 • florence@sablechaud.eu • http://www.sablechaud.eu -``` -### Contexte +Contexte La période de confinement décrétée par le gouvernement français depuis le mardi 17/03/20 et pro- longée jusqu’au 4/05/20 est dans le but de stopper la pandémie du virus COVID-19. Une situation @@ -63,34 +46,28 @@ Expérience : mesures de l’évolution de la température en fonction du temps ordinaires à usage familial. Outils : - -- Un thermomètre de cuisine équipé d’une sonde (HABOR) -- Une bouilloire électrique à la température non réglable (RUSSEL-HOBS) -- 3 types de récipients sélectionnés : - une casserole inox, +• Un thermomètre de cuisine équipé d’une sonde (HABOR) +• Une bouilloire électrique à la température non réglable (RUSSEL-HOBS) +• 3 types de récipients sélectionnés : - une casserole inox, - un saladier en porcelaine - un récipient plastique (Tupperware) -- Un masque en tissu par récipient +• Un masque en tissu par récipient Protocole de mesure : -### ETUDE de décroissance de température d’eau chaude - -### en vue du lavage de masques barrières en tissu - -### dans un cadre familial confiné - - ``` -Florence Bost • 06 82 69 89 82 • florence@sablechaud.eu • http://www.sablechaud.eu +ETUDE de décroissance de température d’eau chaude +en vue du lavage de masques barrières en tissu +dans un cadre familial confiné +``` ``` - Faire bouillir 1,5 l d’eau dans une bouilloire électrique jusqu’à son arrêt automatique - Verser l’eau dans le récipient - Prise de mesure de référence - Relève des mesures toutes les 5 minutes - +``` ``` L’expérience a été réalisée par 2 fois et dans 2 cas de figures : - sans couvercle -``` - avec couvercle (dépose) Notes : T° ambiante de la pièce au moment de l’expérience était de 23°C, aucune fenêtre ouverte. @@ -99,7 +76,7 @@ Taux d’humidité ambiant 42%. Fluide : eau municipale Les mesures de température sont faites en °C. Date et lieu : le 29-03-20 - Paris - +``` ``` Résultats : ``` @@ -118,14 +95,13 @@ départ pour tenir 30 mn est d’environ 75°C quelque soit le récipient. ``` ``` Conclusion -``` -- La garantie de conserver la température à 60°C pendant 30 mn comme préconisé dans le guide +• La garantie de conserver la température à 60°C pendant 30 mn comme préconisé dans le guide de spécifications AFNOR S76-001 pour le lavage manuel des masques barrière en tissu, peut se faire dans n’importe quel récipient à condition de bien le couvrir. -- Si vous avez une bouilloire électrique modulable, vous pouvez régler la température maximale à +• Si vous avez une bouilloire électrique modulable, vous pouvez régler la température maximale à 70°C. - -### ETUDE (suite) +``` +ETUDE (suite) ``` NOTE : @@ -135,22 +111,16 @@ tive. L’auteur ne peut être rendue responsable de l’interprétation outre m ``` mn ``` - ## Qui sommes-nous? ## Les liens d’accès -#### Cette série d’études est à l’initiative de Florence Bost - et de son ré- - -#### seau - soutenue par le pôle de compétitivité Techtera. Certaines d’entre - -#### elles ont participé à l’élaboration du projet MasKaDom piloté par l’IMdR. - -#### Chaque étude complète est disponible sur les sites cités ci-dessous, - -#### ils ne peuvent être utilisés à des fins commerciales sans l’autorisation - -#### expresse et écrite des auteurs. +Cette série d’études est à l’initiative de Florence Bost - et de son ré- +seau - soutenue par le pôle de compétitivité Techtera. Certaines d’entre +elles ont participé à l’élaboration du projet MasKaDom piloté par l’IMdR. +Chaque étude complète est disponible sur les sites cités ci-dessous, +ils ne peuvent être utilisés à des fins commerciales sans l’autorisation +expresse et écrite des auteurs. ``` Smart textiles designer, Florence Bost est consultante depuis 2003 sous le nom de @@ -184,19 +154,6 @@ Techtera - Actualités ``` avec le soutien de ``` -## lF - -## a - -## sh - -## - - -## M - -## asque - ``` -Sable Chaud - COVID- +Sable Chaud - COVID-19 ``` - diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters.md b/examples/Grammar-Matters.md index 1842492..82e3e52 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters.md +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters.md @@ -1,13 +1,11 @@ # Grammar Matters -##### By Debbie Kuhlmann +**By Debbie Kuhlmann** -Grammar Matters by Debbie Kuhlmann is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4. +Grammar Matters by Debbie Kuhlmann is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 +International License -##### International License - - -##### Chapter 1 +**Chapter 1** ## Why is Proper Grammar so Important? @@ -25,12 +23,12 @@ you responded with one of the following emails. ``` ```  We sued Lowes for our carpet installation. The message is clear, but the -meaning is very different. Two letters were reversed in the word used , and it +meaning is very different. Two letters were reversed in the word used, and it changed the entire meaning. Typos can sometimes form correctly spelled words with very different meanings. ``` -**2. Correct grammar reveals the writer’s attention to detail, competency, and -professionalism.** If it seems like the writer is too distracted or sloppy to learn the rules +2. Correct grammar reveals the writer’s attention to detail, competency, and +professionalism. If it seems like the writer is too distracted or sloppy to learn the rules of grammar, it begs the question, where else are they distracted and sloppy. Your written words are representing you. You want the reader to focus on your message and not your mistakes. @@ -49,8 +47,7 @@ competitive market, I will pass on a great programmer who cannot write. Applicants who don’t think writing is important are likely to think lots of other (important) things also aren’t important. After all, sloppy is as sloppy does.” ``` - -**3. In business writing you are representing your company and yourself.** No +3. In business writing you are representing your company and yourself. No company wants their employees to send out messages filled with grammar errors. It makes the company look sloppy and unprofessional. Studies have shown that a single spelling mistake on a website can cut online sales revenue in half. It might seem like a @@ -66,8 +63,8 @@ doing this, you can emphasize your main point. #### Common Errors in Business Writing -**1. Effective writers should not depend on spell-check programs to catch all of the -proofreading errors.** Spell-check will catch spelling errors, typos, and basic grammar +1. Effective writers should not depend on spell-check programs to catch all of the +proofreading errors. Spell-check will catch spelling errors, typos, and basic grammar errors; however, it cannot replace concentrated proofreading. Spell-check only catches words that are not in the English language. If your typo happens to create a word in the English language, spell-check will not catch it. The meaning might be completely different. @@ -80,17 +77,16 @@ Proofread your documents thoroughly. It is helpful to read your documents out lo read it in your head, you often read what you meant to say instead of the information you wrote. Have someone else proofread your document too. -**2. Effective writing should be comprehendible and enjoyable to your target -audience**. Have you ever become frustrated reading an instruction manual because the +2. Effective writing should be comprehendible and enjoyable to your target +audience. Have you ever become frustrated reading an instruction manual because the directions were confusing? Clearly, the writer did not accurately gauge the target audience. If the reader is throwing the manual down in frustration, then the writer has failed. How can you avoid this? -**Do not use technical terms or acronyms unless you are certain that the reader is -familiar with these terms.** If you must use the term, be sure to define it in your +**Do not use technical terms or acronyms unless you are certain that the reader is** +**familiar with these terms.** If you must use the term, be sure to define it in your document. You want your message to be clear and not frustrating to your reader. - **Do not use slang, text language, hashtags, emoticons, or jargon in formal writing.** Many people do not understand these terms, and find it frustrating to receive correspondence containing it. This type of communication is acceptable in informal @@ -103,7 +99,7 @@ Article 1 - _Trackerpress:_ “Why is it important to use correct grammar?” [http://www.trackerpress.com/reference/why-is-correct-grammar-important.php](http://www.trackerpress.com/reference/why-is-correct-grammar-important.php) Article 2 - _USA Today:_ “Wanna get hired? Work on your grammar -[http://www.usatodayeducate.com/staging/index.php/career/wanna-get-hired-work-on-](http://www.usatodayeducate.com/staging/index.php/career/wanna-get-hired-work-on-) +[http://www.usatodayeducate.com/staging/index.php/career/wanna-get-hired-wo](http://www.usatodayeducate.com/staging/index.php/career/wanna-get-hired-wo)rk-on- your-grammar Article 3 - Huffington Post: “Kyle Wiens of iFixit Won‟t Hire the Grammatically Challenged” @@ -115,12 +111,12 @@ Before you can play a sport, you must learn the rules of the game. The same theo applies to writing with proper grammar. Before you can write effectively, you must learn the rules. Let‟s meet the starting lineup. -##### Nouns +**Nouns** A noun names a person, place, thing, feeling, or idea. Nouns can be as specific as Starbucks coffee or as abstract as freedom and happiness. Nouns are broken into two -groups: proper nouns and common nouns. **Proper nouns are capitalized** , and they refer -to specific things. **Common nouns are not capitalized** , and they refer to general things. +groups: proper nouns and common nouns. **Proper nouns are capitalized**, and they refer +to specific things. **Common nouns are not capitalized**, and they refer to general things. ``` Nouns Proper Common @@ -140,7 +136,6 @@ Places Seattle city ``` Sea-Tac Airport airport ``` - ``` United States country ``` @@ -153,8 +148,7 @@ New York Times newspaper ``` Thanksgiving, Christmas holidays ``` -##### Pronouns - +**Pronouns** Pronouns take the place of a noun in a sentence and provide efficiency to your writing. Without pronouns, writing becomes bogged down in nouns. For example: @@ -166,10 +160,9 @@ them. (More efficient) Pronouns can act as the subject of a sentence (I, he, she, they, it) or the object of a verb (me, them, us). Pronouns will be covered more in Chapter 4. -##### Verbs - -Verbs show the action or a state of being. **Every sentence must have a verb to be -complete**. Without verbs, the subjects of sentences wouldn‟t be doing anything. Verbs +**Verbs** +Verbs show the action or a state of being. **Every sentence must have a verb to be** +**complete**. Without verbs, the subjects of sentences wouldn‟t be doing anything. Verbs are further broken down into three categories: action verbs, helping verbs, and linking verbs. @@ -191,9 +184,7 @@ and _had_. Verbs will be covered in more detail in Chapters 5 and 6. For now, it is important to be able to identify if a sentence has a verb. A sentence is not complete without a verb. - -##### Adjectives - +**Adjectives** Adjectives are words that describe nouns and pronouns. Without adjectives, our language would be flat and boring. Adjectives often add information that explains which one, how many, what color, and what kind. @@ -212,12 +203,11 @@ linking verb.  The cat is orange.  The cat is fluffy. ``` -_A, an_ , and _the_ form a unique group of adjectives called **articles.** These will be +_A, an_, and _the_ form a unique group of adjectives called **articles.** These will be discussed further in Chapter 7. For now, just know that articles are part of the adjective team. -##### Adverbs - +**Adverbs** Adverbs are words that describe verbs, adjectives, or other adverbs. Adverbs describe how, when, where, or to what extent the action takes place. @@ -227,13 +217,12 @@ how, when, where, or to what extent the action takes place.  Mary‟s family waited for her there. (Where did they wait?)  She was very relieved to have a few days of rest. (To what extent?) ``` -Adverbs often end in –ly, but some of the most common adverbs do not. _There, then, -now, sometimes, very, today,_ and _inside_ are all common adverbs that do not end in –ly. +Adverbs often end in –ly, but some of the most common adverbs do not. _There, then,_ +_now, sometimes, very, today,_ and _inside_ are all common adverbs that do not end in –ly. Adverbs (not adjectives) describe and modify verbs. The word _verb_ is even inside the word _adverb_ in case you forget. -##### Prepositions - +**Prepositions** Prepositions join nouns and pronouns to other words in the sentence. Prepositions show a relationship between words. Prepositions often show a relationship of space and time. @@ -241,7 +230,6 @@ The name itself has the word _position_ in it. A preposition is a short word tha a position in time or space. If you lost your keys, think of all of the places (positions) your keys could be. They could be _on_ the table, _under_ the couch, _between_ the books, - _with_ your gym clothes, _at_ the office, or _behind_ the refrigerator. A preposition can also reveal a more abstract relationship. @@ -251,8 +239,7 @@ reveal a more abstract relationship. Prepositions are usually very short words. Some of the most common prepositions are _at, by, for, from, in, of to,_ and _with_. -##### Conjunctions - +**Conjunctions** Conjunctions are the big joiners of the grammar world. They join words, phrases, and clauses. The most common conjunctions are _and, but,_ and _or._ @@ -261,8 +248,7 @@ clauses. The most common conjunctions are _and, but,_ and _or._  Mary drank coffee, but Fred drank tea.  Either Fred or Mary needs to run to the store. ``` -##### Interjections - +**Interjections** Interjections are the interrupters of the group. Interjections express strong feelings and emotions. When these expressions stand alone as a sentence, an exclamation point is used. When the emotion is not as strong, the interjection is set apart with a comma. @@ -276,25 +262,22 @@ Interjections show strong emotion and excitement. Avoid overusing interjections formal writing. Too many interjections and exclamation points give the impression that the writer is shouting. -##### Team Grammar - +**Team Grammar** Let‟s review our grammar team. -**Nouns/Pronouns** : represent people, places, things, and ideas +**Nouns/Pronouns**: represent people, places, things, and ideas **Verbs:** show the action -**Adjectives/Adverbs** : the describers +**Adjectives/Adverbs**: the describers **Prepositions/Conjunctions:** the joiners **Interjections:** the interrupters - -##### Chapter 2 +**Chapter 2** ## Sentences To write effectively, it is important to understand how to write complete sentences. -##### What is a sentence? All sentences must begin with a capital letter and end with a - +**What is a sentence?** All sentences must begin with a capital letter and end with a punctuation mark. This is a grammar rule that does not have any exceptions. In addition to a capital letter and a punctuation mark, a complete sentence must contain a subject, a predicate, and it must make sense. The **simple subject** is a noun or pronoun that is @@ -324,20 +307,18 @@ Complete Subject Complete Predicate ``` Mary and Sarah ran the race. ``` - ``` Cars on the freeway drive slowly during rush hour. ``` -The **complete subject** is the simple subject and all of its modifiers. The **complete -predicate** is the simple predicate plus all of its modifiers. The simple subjects and +The **complete subject** is the simple subject and all of its modifiers. The **complete** +**predicate** is the simple predicate plus all of its modifiers. The simple subjects and simple predicates are underlined. The simple subject can be more than one noun. In the first sentence, both _Sarah_ and _Mary_ are the simple subjects of the sentence. In order to be a complete sentence, the sentence must make sense. The sentence must form a complete thought on its own. If the sentence does not make sense without adding some additional words, then you have written a fragment. -##### Complete Sentence Checklist - +**Complete Sentence Checklist** **A sentence must have all of the following to be complete:** 1. A sentence must start with a capital letter and end with a punctuation mark. @@ -352,32 +333,28 @@ different types of punctuation. The punctuation mark is based upon what type of sentence it is. There are four types of sentences: statements, questions, commands, and exclamations. -##### Statements A statement tells something and ends with a period. Sometimes these - +**Statements** A statement tells something and ends with a period. Sometimes these are called declarative sentences because the sentence declares something. ```  It is raining outside.  I left my umbrella in my car. ``` -##### Questions A direct question asks something and needs to end with a question mark. +**Questions** A direct question asks something and needs to end with a question mark. ```  Is it still raining?  Is it going to rain tomorrow? ``` -##### Commands A command gives an order and ends with a period. If the command is - +**Commands** A command gives an order and ends with a period. If the command is very strong, then it can end with an exclamation point. Most of the time, the subject in a command is not stated. Instead, it is understood that the subject is _you_. - ```  Check the weather for tomorrow. (You should check the weather for tomorrow.)  Take your umbrella. (You should take your umbrella.) ``` -##### Exclamations Exclamations show strong feelings or excitement. An exclamation - +**Exclamations** Exclamations show strong feelings or excitement. An exclamation can be a complete sentence, but it does not have to be a complete sentence. An exclamation does not have to have a subject and a predicate. In exclamations, often the subject and the predicate are implied. @@ -391,8 +368,7 @@ give the impression that the writer is shouting. #### Phrases and Clauses -##### Phrases - +**Phrases** A phrase is a group of words without a subject and a verb. Phrases are part of a sentence, but they cannot stand alone as complete sentences. @@ -417,8 +393,7 @@ the coffee that she drank noun phrase It isn‟t necessary to memorize each type of phrase, but it is important to recognize that each of these phrases could not be a complete sentence on their own. -##### Clauses - +**Clauses** A clause is a group of words with a subject and a verb. They come in two forms: independent clauses and dependent clauses. **Independent clauses** can stand on their @@ -433,9 +408,7 @@ subordinating conjunctions, and they are covered further in Chapter 9. **The following words and phrases are often used to introduce dependent clauses:** ``` -after -even though -unless +after even though unless although if until as no matter how when as if now that whenever @@ -462,9 +435,8 @@ The sun came out at noon. Although the sun came out at noon. ``` The students arrived on time. When the students arrived on time. ``` - **How can you fix dependent clauses?** There are two ways to fix a dependent clause. -You can remove the subordinating conjunction ( _although, because, if, when_ ). Often just +You can remove the subordinating conjunction (_although, because, if, when_). Often just removing that word will reveal an independent clause. Another option is to attach the dependent clause to an independent clause. A @@ -509,7 +481,6 @@ Have you ever written a paragraph and realized that every sentence looked the sa That is a quick way to lull your reader to sleep. One way to fix the problem is to add some variety to your sentence structure. Sentences come in four different varieties: - simple sentences, compound sentences, complex sentences, and compound-complex sentences. @@ -542,8 +513,8 @@ compound sentence adds emphasis to simple sentence) ``` A **compound sentence** contains two independent clauses with related topics. Compound sentences can be punctuated in three different ways. Two independent -clauses can be joined with a comma and a coordinating conjunction ( _for, and, nor, but, -or, yet, so_ ). Two independent clauses can also be joined together with a semicolon. +clauses can be joined with a comma and a coordinating conjunction (_for, and, nor, but,_ +_or, yet, so_). Two independent clauses can also be joined together with a semicolon. Another option for joining two independent clauses is to use a conjunctive adverb. A conjunctive adverb is an adverb that is acting like a conjunction by gluing together two independent clauses. Conjunctive adverbs are preceded by a semicolon and followed @@ -557,13 +528,11 @@ independent clauses joined with a semicolon.)  Sarah flew to Hawaii on Tuesday; however, her suitcase arrived on Friday. (Two independent clauses joined with a semicolon and a conjunctive adverb.) ``` - A trick to remember all of the coordinating conjunctions is the acronym **FANBOYS**. -Each letter represents one of the coordinating conjunctions: **F** or, **A** nd, **N** or, **B** ut, **O** r, **Y** et, -**S** o. - -##### A complex sentence contains one independent clause and one dependent clause. The +Each letter represents one of the coordinating conjunctions: **F**or, **A**nd, **N**or, **B**ut, **O**r, **Y**et, +**S**o. +A **complex sentence** contains one independent clause and one dependent clause. The punctuation changes depending on the order of the clauses. If the dependent clause appears first, a comma is needed after the dependent clause. If the independent clause appears first in the sentence, then no comma is needed. @@ -585,8 +554,7 @@ already planning her next trip. #### Run-Ons -##### Fragments - +**Fragments** Fragments are incomplete sentences. As the name implies, a fragment is just a piece of the sentence. In formal writing, sentence fragments are frowned upon. A fragment is often disguised as a complete sentence, but it is lacking one of the requirements for @@ -610,7 +578,6 @@ Fixed Mary plays many sports such as soccer, softball, and lacrosse. ``` The fragment is fixed by joining it to the independent clause. ``` - ``` Fragment Due on Saturday, May 17. ``` @@ -627,10 +594,10 @@ require adding a verb or a subject to make them complete. How can you tell if yo sentence is a fragment? Run the sentence through the Complete Sentence Checklist located at the beginning of the chapter. If the sentence does not meet all of the requirements, then it is a sentence fragment. -**Fragments are often used in newspaper headlines and advertisements to grab the -reader’s attention. It is acceptable to use a sentence fragment in these cases.** +**Fragments are often used in newspaper headlines and advertisements to grab the** +**reader’s attention. It is acceptable to use a sentence fragment in these cases.** -#### Comma Splices +**Comma Splices** Commas are such a handy piece of punctuation that sometimes writers try to give them powers that they do not have. When two independent clauses are stuck together with a @@ -639,7 +606,7 @@ independent clauses together. Luckily for writers, there are several ways to fix splice. ``` - Mary ordered coffee, Fred ordered a scone. ( Comma splice) + Mary ordered coffee, Fred ordered a scone. (Comma splice)  Mary ordered coffee, and Fred ordered a scone. (Fixed by adding a coordinating conjunction)  Mary ordered coffee. Fred ordered a scone. (Fixed by changing the sentence @@ -649,7 +616,7 @@ a semicolon)  Mary ordered coffee; however, Fred ordered a scone. (Fixed by adding a conjunctive adverb, a semicolon, and a comma) ``` -##### Run-On Sentences +**Run-On Sentences** A run-on sentence does not mean that it is a long sentence. In fact, a run-on sentence can be very short. A run-on sentence occurs when two independent clauses appear in a @@ -657,7 +624,6 @@ sentence without proper internal punctuation. A run-on sentence just keeps going it should be slowed down with punctuation. Run-on sentences can be fixed with the same group of tricks that fixed the comma splice. - ```  Fred enjoys cooking he does not enjoy cleaning. (run-on sentence)  Fred enjoys cooking. He does not enjoy cleaning. (Fixed by changing the @@ -669,21 +635,21 @@ between the independent clauses)  Fred enjoys cooking; however, he does not enjoy cleaning. (Fixed by adding a semicolon, a conjunctive adverb, and a comma) ``` -##### Chapter 3 +**Chapter 3** ## Nouns A **noun** represents a person, place, thing, or idea. Nouns can name a specific place, -such as _Seattle_ , or a general place, such as a _city_. Nouns can also name feelings and +such as _Seattle_, or a general place, such as a _city_. Nouns can also name feelings and thoughts. _Excitement, fear, anger, freedom,_ and _happiness_ are all nouns. Nouns work as the subjects of sentences, as the objects of verbs, and as the objects of prepositions. Nouns are divided into two categories: common nouns and proper nouns. -**Common nouns** name general people, places, and things. _City, coffee, lake, kayak, -tree, flower_ , and _shoe_ are all common nouns. Common nouns are not capitalized. +**Common nouns** name general people, places, and things. _City, coffee, lake, kayak,_ +_tree, flower_, and _shoe_ are all common nouns. Common nouns are not capitalized. -**Proper nouns** name specific people, places, and things. _Mary, Fred, Seattle, New York -City_ , and _Italy_ are all proper nouns. +**Proper nouns** name specific people, places, and things. _Mary, Fred, Seattle, New York_ +_City_, and _Italy_ are all proper nouns. ``` Proper nouns Common nouns @@ -706,7 +672,6 @@ Friday day If you get confused, just ask yourself if the noun is referring to something specific. Nouns that name specific people, places, and things are capitalized. - #### Making Nouns Plural A **singular noun** names one person, place, or thing. _Student_ is an example of a @@ -715,27 +680,29 @@ singular noun _student_ becomes the plural noun _students_. A **plural noun** na than one person, place, or thing. Do not use apostrophes to make nouns plural. This is one of the most common grammatical errors. - Most regular nouns become plural by adding an **_s._** +``` + Most regular nouns become plural by adding an s. tree trees sock socks book books - - Nouns that end in **_s, x, z, ch, sh,_** **or** **_z,_** add **_es_**. +``` +``` + Nouns that end in s, x, z, ch, sh, or z, add es. dress dresses tax taxes lunch lunches wash washes - +``` ```  Nouns that end in y are formed two ways. ``` -1. When letter before **_y_** is a vowel, add **_s._** +1. When letter before y is a vowel, add s. valley valleys key keys boy boys day days -2. Nouns ending with a consonant and y are formed by changing the **_y_** to an **_i_** -and adding **_es._** +2. Nouns ending with a consonant and y are formed by changing the y to an i +and adding es. city cities grocery groceries library libraries @@ -744,27 +711,28 @@ blueberry blueberries ```  Nouns that end in o are formed two ways. ``` -1. When the letter before the **_o_** is a vowel, add s. Musical terms ending in **_o_** are -formed by adding an **_s_**. +1. When the letter before the o is a vowel, add s. Musical terms ending in o are +formed by adding an s. kilo kilos tempo tempos cello cellos - -2. When the letter before the **_o_** is a consonant, no standard rule applies. It is +2. When the letter before the o is a consonant, no standard rule applies. It is helpful to memorize the plural forms of words you use regularly. If you are unsure, you should always check a current dictionary. - potato potatoes - logo logos +potato potatoes +logo logos - Nouns that end in **_f_** or **_fe_** do not follow any standard rules. It is helpful to +``` + Nouns that end in f or fe do not follow any standard rules. It is helpful to memorize the plural forms of the words you use regularly and check a dictionary if you are unsure. life lives calf calves leaf leaves belief beliefs - +``` +```  Irregular nouns become plural by changing their spelling. Check a dictionary if you are unsure of the plural form. It is helpful to memorize the plural form of the most common irregular nouns. @@ -772,42 +740,44 @@ foot feet child children man men tooth teeth - +``` +```  Some nouns do not change when they become plural. These nouns have the same spelling when they are singular and plural. sheep trout salmon moose - +``` ``` When dictionaries show two different forms of the plural noun, the preferred form is shown first. ``` -##### Family names and other proper nouns +**Family names and other proper nouns** When _the_ appears before the last name, the last name is always plural. For example, _the Johnsons will vacation in California this year_. Holiday cards often show how many people do not understand this rule. The exception to this rule is if the family name is followed by the word _family_. The word _family_ makes the proper noun plural. For -example, _Johnson_ is singular, but _the Johnson famil_ y is plural. +example, _Johnson_ is singular, but _the Johnson famil_y is plural. - -**Proper nouns become plural by adding an** **_s_** **or** **_es_** **to the ending**. If the proper noun +**Proper nouns become plural by adding an s or es to the ending**. If the proper noun ends in s, x, z, ch, or sh, then the plural is formed by adding _es_. +``` Lopez Lopezes The Lopezes The Lopez family Woods Woodses The Woodses The Woods family Ontario Ontarios The Ontarios The Ontario family - +``` **All other proper nouns become plural by adding s**. +``` October Octobers Smith Smiths Pepsi Pepsis Disneyland Disneylands - -##### Compound nouns +``` +**Compound nouns** Compound nouns are two or more words that are combined to form a single noun. _Editor-in-chief_ and _vice president_ are both compound nouns. Sometimes compound @@ -818,55 +788,61 @@ make that plural? The key is to figure out which part of the compound noun is th noun. The _law_ part of the compound describes what kind of sister. The main noun is _sister_. The correct plural form is _sisters-in-law._ +``` brother-in-law brothers-in-law editor-in-chief editors-in-chief vice president vice presidents - +``` If the compound noun does not have a main noun, then the final part of the compound noun is made plural. +``` start-up start-ups eight-year-old eight-year-olds - +``` Some compound nouns have two acceptable plural forms. In the dictionary, the preferred spelling is shown first, but both are considered acceptable. +``` attorney general attorneys general or attorney generals teaspoonful teaspoonfuls or teaspoonsful - - -##### Abbreviations, degrees, numerals, and alphabet letters +``` +**Abbreviations, degrees, numerals, and alphabet letters** Numerals, academic degrees, abbreviations, and capital alphabet letters (except A, I, M, and U) become plural by adding a lowercase _s._ +``` 12s 1990s MBAs all Bs and Cs - +``` All lowercase letters and the capital letters A, I, M, and U are made plural by adding an apostrophe and _s_. The apostrophe is added for clarity. This is the only time that a plural is formed by adding an apostrophe and s. If you did not add the apostrophe, the words -might be confused as the words _us, as_ , and _is_. +might be confused as the words _us, as_, and _is_. +``` dot your i‟s all A‟s and Bs M‟s U‟s - +``` Abbreviations for units of measurement often have identical singular and plural forms. +``` oz. ounce or ounces ft. foot or feet km kilometer or kilometers - +``` Some measurements have more than one plural form. In addition, the measurement abbreviations are acceptable with or without periods. The important thing is to remain consistent with your measurement throughout your document. Do not switch between two plural forms of the abbreviation. That causes confusion. Pick one and use it consistently in your document. +``` lb. or lbs. (without periods is also acceptable) pounds qt. or qts. (without periods is also acceptable quarts yd. or yds. (without periods is also acceptable) yards - +``` #### Possessive Nouns Possessive nouns show ownership, origin, or time. To make a noun possessive, you @@ -880,7 +856,6 @@ add an apostrophe and _s_. Writers can also show possession by using a prepositional phrase instead of a possessive noun. - ```  The motorcycle belonging to Fred  The weather of Hawaii @@ -888,8 +863,8 @@ possessive noun. ``` Both options are grammatically correct. It is important to know how to form a possessive noun both ways. In most cases, it is more efficient to use the possessive noun. -Some sentences require knowledge of both tricks for forming the possessive. **Back-to- -back possessive nouns** can create awkward and confusing sentences. They are +Some sentences require knowledge of both tricks for forming the possessive. **Back-to-** +**back possessive nouns** can create awkward and confusing sentences. They are grammatically correct, but they sound awkward. To avoid confusing sentences, rewrite one of the possessives as a prepositional phrase. @@ -905,7 +880,7 @@ Apostrophes have two purposes: to show possession and to show missing letters in contraction. Apostrophes never make nouns plural. How do you know where to use an apostrophe? -**1. Look for possessive words** +1. Look for possessive words Usually the nouns appear together in a sentence, and the first noun shows ownership. ``` @@ -913,7 +888,7 @@ Usually the nouns appear together in a sentence, and the first noun shows owners  the instructor‟s notes  Hawaii‟s beaches ``` -**2. Reverse the nouns** +2. Reverse the nouns If you are not sure if the nouns are possessive, try reversing the nouns. Use the second noun to make a prepositional phrase. @@ -922,7 +897,7 @@ noun to make a prepositional phrase.  The notes of the instructor  The beaches of Hawaii ``` -**3. Determine if the noun is singular or plural** +3. Determine if the noun is singular or plural People often get confused about where to put the apostrophe. It depends on two things: whether the noun is singular or plural and if the noun ends in s. @@ -932,7 +907,6 @@ Singular possessive noun Plural possessive noun ``` Noun does not Add an apostrophe and s Add an apostrophe and s ``` - ``` end in s student‟s assignments ``` @@ -965,19 +939,17 @@ possessive pronoun. _It’s_ is a contraction. #### Challenges with Possessive Nouns -##### Descriptive nouns describe the noun, but they do not show ownership. Do not use - +**Descriptive nouns** describe the noun, but they do not show ownership. Do not use an apostrophe. The key is to look for ownership. If the noun is only describing, and not -showing ownership, then no apostrophe is needed. For example, _Human Resources -Department_ is a descriptive noun. _Human Resources_ does not own the department, but +showing ownership, then no apostrophe is needed. For example, _Human Resources_ +_Department_ is a descriptive noun. _Human Resources_ does not own the department, but it is describing the type of department. ```  United States Army (not United States‟ Army)  Sales Department (not Sales‟ Department) ``` -##### Compound nouns become possessive by adding an apostrophe or an apostrophe - +**Compound nouns** become possessive by adding an apostrophe or an apostrophe _s_ to the end of the compound word. ``` @@ -985,9 +957,7 @@ _s_ to the end of the compound word.  Sisters-in-law‟s (plural and possessive)  Start-ups‟ (plural and possessive) ``` - -##### Family names become possessive by following the same rules as other nouns. - +**Family names** become possessive by following the same rules as other nouns. Singular names form their possessive by adding an apostrophe and _s_. Plural names already end in _s_. Add an apostrophe to make the plural name possessive. @@ -1000,21 +970,19 @@ Mr. Jones Mr. Jones's house the Joneses' house ``` Mrs. Johnson Mrs. Johnson's yacht the Johnsons' vacation ``` -This rule is broken a lot. Holiday cards are often signed, “ _Happy Holidays from the -Smith’s!_ ” It is incorrect. Apostrophes make nouns possessive, not plural. - -##### Abbreviations become possessive by following the same rules as other nouns. If +This rule is broken a lot. Holiday cards are often signed, “_Happy Holidays from the_ +_Smith’s!_” It is incorrect. Apostrophes make nouns possessive, not plural. +**Abbreviations** become possessive by following the same rules as other nouns. If the abbreviation is singular, then you add an apostrophe and _s_. If the abbreviation is -plural and ends in _s_ , then you only add the apostrophe. +plural and ends in _s_, then you only add the apostrophe. ``` - NBC‟s Olympic coverage (singular, does not end in s ) - Both CEOs‟ signatures were required (plural and ends in s ) - CBS‟s fall schedule (singular and ends in s ) + NBC‟s Olympic coverage (singular, does not end in s) + Both CEOs‟ signatures were required (plural and ends in s) + CBS‟s fall schedule (singular and ends in s) ``` -##### Company and organization names that include possessives may not use - +**Company and organization names** that include possessives may not use correct grammar. It is important to use the company‟s legal name, even if it uses incorrect grammar. Consult the company‟s website for their preferred spelling. @@ -1023,7 +991,7 @@ incorrect grammar. Consult the company‟s website for their preferred spelling.  McDonald‟s  Macy‟s (uses a star in place of the apostrophe) ``` -##### Time and money can show possession, and they need to be punctuated properly. +**Time and money** can show possession, and they need to be punctuated properly. ```  one year‟s experience (the experience of one year) @@ -1035,9 +1003,7 @@ incorrect grammar. Consult the company‟s website for their preferred spelling. If the possessive construction seems awkward, then it is perfectly acceptable to use the prepositional phrase instead. Both options are grammatically correct. - -##### Incomplete possessives happen when the second noun in the possessive - +**Incomplete possessives** happen when the second noun in the possessive construction is implied and not stated. If you choose to leave off the second noun, make sure that the reader knows what word you implied. When in doubt, don‟t leave the word off. @@ -1046,8 +1012,7 @@ off.  The family will meet at Mary‟s for the party. (Mary‟s house is implied.)  This year‟s price is better than last year‟s. (Last year‟s price is implied.) ``` -##### Compound possession happens when two nouns own something together or - +**Compound possession** happens when two nouns own something together or separately. It can confuse the best of us. If two or more nouns share ownership, then you only need one apostrophe and _s_.  Mary and Fred‟s dog is white. (combined ownership) @@ -1060,8 +1025,7 @@ suitcases.)  Sarah‟s and Theresa‟s cats are striped. (Separate ownership. Sarah and Theresa each own a striped cat.) ``` -##### Academic degrees should be written as possessives. These degrees are not - +**Academic degrees** should be written as possessives. These degrees are not capitalized unless they are used as an abbreviation. ``` @@ -1070,8 +1034,7 @@ capitalized unless they are used as an abbreviation.  He has a bachelor‟s and a master‟s. (possessive form is required even if the word degree is implied) ``` -##### Apostrophes make nouns possessive, not plural. - +**Apostrophes make nouns possessive, not plural.** Do not rely on computer software to catch errors with plural and possessive nouns. The placement of the apostrophe can change the meaning of the sentence. The following two sentences are both grammatically correct, but they have different meanings. @@ -1085,8 +1048,7 @@ cupcake.)  The teacher began class by calling the students names. (Very rude!)  The teacher began class by calling the students‟ names. (Much better!) ``` - -##### Chapter 4 +**Chapter 4** ## Pronouns @@ -1115,7 +1077,6 @@ Personal pronouns can be sorted into three different cases: subjective case, obj case, and possessive case. Most pronouns have a different form depending on who is speaking or being spoken to. - ``` Subjective Case @@ -1162,8 +1123,7 @@ it his, her theirs hers, its theirs ``` -##### Subjective case pronouns perform the action of the verb. Verbs show the action - +**Subjective case pronouns** perform the action of the verb. Verbs show the action of the sentence, and the subject shows who or what is performing that action. If the subject is a pronoun, then the pronoun must be in the subjective case. Only subjective case pronouns can work as the subjects of verbs. If a pronoun appears as the subject of @@ -1179,8 +1139,8 @@ be, been). This can be confusing, and it might initially sound strange because o case pronouns usually follow verbs. ``` - This is she. (not her ) - It was they. (not them ) + This is she. (not her) + It was they. (not them) ``` It can sound a bit unnatural and stuffy, but it is grammatically correct. If it sounds too stuffy for your style, then rewrite your sentence. Often rewriting involves taking the @@ -1190,11 +1150,9 @@ pronoun out and using the antecedent instead.  This is Sarah. (Instead of she)  It was Mary, Fred, and Dan. (Instead of they) ``` -##### Objective case pronouns work as the object of a verb. A direct object shows who - +**Objective case pronouns** work as the object of a verb. A direct object shows who or what receives the action of the verb. The direct object is not performing the action, - but is receiving the action. If the direct object is a pronoun, then it must be in the objective case. @@ -1207,10 +1165,9 @@ objective case. In all of the examples, the objective case pronoun is not performing the action of the verb. It is just hanging out and receiving the action of the verb. -##### Objective case pronouns also work as the object of a preposition. Prepositions - +**Objective case pronouns** also work as the **object of a preposition**. Prepositions describe a relationship in time or space and answer the questions where and when. -_Between, at, from, under, over_ , and _above_ are all prepositions. Prepositions always act +_Between, at, from, under, over_, and _above_ are all prepositions. Prepositions always act as part of a prepositional phrase. The object of the preposition is a noun or pronoun. If it is a pronoun, then the pronoun is always in the objective case. This can get tricky with prepositions such as _between, except,_ and _like_. The trick is to isolate the prepositional @@ -1218,9 +1175,9 @@ phrase. If any pronouns are objects of the preposition, then they need to be in objective case. ``` - Fred threw the ball to him. (Object of the preposition to ) - Keep the secret between you and me. (Object of the preposition between ) - Everyone except Mary and him saw the movie. (Object of the preposition except ) + Fred threw the ball to him. (Object of the preposition to) + Keep the secret between you and me. (Object of the preposition between) + Everyone except Mary and him saw the movie. (Object of the preposition except) ``` This rule gets mixed up a lot, and it might take a while to train your brain to use this rule correctly. The biggest mistake is saying “between you and I.” The correct way to say it is @@ -1240,9 +1197,7 @@ then it is the object of the preposition and needs to be in the objective form. pronouns insist on performing the action of a verb, and objective pronouns prefer to sit back and let the action come to them. - -##### Possessive case pronouns show ownership. Possessive pronouns do not have - +**Possessive case pronouns** show ownership. Possessive pronouns do not have apostrophes like possessive nouns. ``` @@ -1271,14 +1226,14 @@ clear which noun the pronoun is replacing. When the pronoun does not match with noun it is replacing, the sentence is very confusing. Using pronouns correctly means following these rules: -1. **The pronoun must have a clear antecedent.** If the reader can‟t figure out what the +1. The pronoun must have a clear antecedent. If the reader can‟t figure out what the pronoun is referring to, then the sentence is too vague. ```  It was on the table. (What is it?)  Mary told Sarah that she was in trouble. (Who is in trouble?) ``` -2. **Pronouns must have the same number (singular or plural) as the antecedent.** If +2. Pronouns must have the same number (singular or plural) as the antecedent. If a pronoun is replacing a plural noun, then the pronoun also needs to be plural. Singular pronouns replace singular nouns. @@ -1289,9 +1244,8 @@ antecedent, singular pronoun)  Mary, Sarah, and Fred drove to their favorite restaurant. (Plural antecedent, plural pronoun) ``` - -3. **Pronouns must have the same gender (masculine, feminine, or neutral) as the -antecedent**. A masculine pronoun replaces a masculine noun. A feminine pronoun +3. Pronouns must have the same gender (masculine, feminine, or neutral) as the +antecedent. A masculine pronoun replaces a masculine noun. A feminine pronoun replaces a feminine noun. It is important that the pronoun agrees with the antecedent. ``` @@ -1327,8 +1281,7 @@ the void that is missing on Team Pronoun. For now, treat _they_ as a plural pron #### Pronoun Challenges -##### Compound Subjects and Objects - +**Compound Subjects and Objects** Pronouns cause problems when they appear in combination with other nouns. ``` @@ -1338,7 +1291,6 @@ sentence, the pronoun remains the same.)  My brother and me like coffee. (Wrong. Me is an objective pronoun, and it has no business acting as part of the subject.) ``` - The trick to choosing the correct pronoun for the sentence is to ignore the other noun and the conjunction (usually and). You can cover it with your hand if that is helpful. @@ -1352,8 +1304,7 @@ correct objective case pronoun.)  My brother and I like coffee. (Ignore “My brother and” to select the correct subjective case pronoun.) ``` -##### Reflexive Pronouns - +**Reflexive Pronouns** Reflexive pronouns end in -self or -selves and _reflect_ back to their antecedents in the same sentence. Think of them as vain pronouns that need a mirror to reflect their image. Reflexive pronouns are reflecting off of the antecedent in the same sentence. @@ -1363,10 +1314,10 @@ sure that the antecedent is in the same sentence. A reflexive pronoun cannot sho in a sentence without an antecedent. ``` - The students wanted to see themselves in the picture. ( Themselves reflects on -the students .) - Mary looked at herself in the mirror. ( Herself reflects on Mary. ) - I am going to treat myself to a scone. ( Myself reflects on I. ) + The students wanted to see themselves in the picture. (Themselves reflects on +the students.) + Mary looked at herself in the mirror. (Herself reflects on Mary.) + I am going to treat myself to a scone. (Myself reflects on I.) ``` Problems show up when people use a reflexive pronoun instead of a personal pronoun. Some people feel uncomfortable using _me_ in a sentence, so they choose _myself_ @@ -1380,14 +1331,12 @@ instead. has nothing to reflect on in the sentence.)  Please email Fred or me with questions. (Correct.) ``` -##### Subject Complements - -Subjective case pronouns ( _I, you, he, she, they, it_ ) follow linking verbs. Linking verbs -are all forms of the verb _be_ , including _am, is, are, was, were, be, been_ , and _has been_. +**Subject Complements** +Subjective case pronouns (_I, you, he, she, they, it_) follow linking verbs. Linking verbs +are all forms of the verb _be_, including _am, is, are, was, were, be, been_, and _has been_. Normally, objective case pronouns follow verbs, so this rule can sound awkward and stiff at first. - ```  It is I.  That was he. @@ -1395,12 +1344,11 @@ stiff at first. ``` If it sounds too stiff, you can rewrite the sentence to sound more natural. _It is I_ becomes _I am here._ Another rewriting option is to not use a pronoun at all, and switch the -pronoun back to a noun. _That was he_ becomes _That was Fred_. _Was it she who called -earlier_ becomes _Was it Sarah who called earlier?_ +pronoun back to a noun. _That was he_ becomes _That was Fred_. _Was it she who called_ +_earlier_ becomes _Was it Sarah who called earlier?_ -##### Indefinite Pronouns - -Indefinite pronouns, such as _everybody, anyone,_ and _everything_ , are called indefinite +**Indefinite Pronouns** +Indefinite pronouns, such as _everybody, anyone,_ and _everything_, are called indefinite because they are not referring to anyone specific. Indefinite pronouns are rather vague about whom they represent. Words such as _everybody_ and _everything_ sound like a large number, but these indefinite pronouns are treated as singular pronouns. Some @@ -1427,16 +1375,14 @@ antecedent Many is plural.)  Each email address has its own unique password. (The antecedent Each is singular and neutral.) ``` -##### Collective Nouns - -Collective nouns such as _team, faculty, flock, union_ , and _committee_ refer to a group. +**Collective Nouns** +Collective nouns such as _team, faculty, flock, union_, and _committee_ refer to a group. When talking about the group as a unit, they are considered singular. If the collective noun is not working as a singular unit, then it is plural. If you cannot figure out if the collective noun is plural or singular, ask yourself if it is acting as a unit. Collective nouns act like a bag of candy. A bag of candy is a singular - unit. It is contained and all of the candy is traveling as a unit. What if the bag rips open? The candies in the bag are no longer working as a singular unit; instead, they are moving in all different directions. The bag of candy is singular, but the candies are @@ -1451,44 +1397,40 @@ candies? It can sound awkward to use a singular pronoun with a noun that sounds plural. In those cases, rewrite your sentence by adding a plural noun as the antecedent. -```  The team members accepted their trophy. (Antecedent is members.)  The jury members handed down their verdict. (Antecedent is members.) -``` -##### Who vs Whom - +**Who vs Whom** Who vs whom poses a challenge to many people today. _Who_ is a subjective case pronoun and works as the subject of a verb. ``` - Who called? ( Who is the subject of the verb) - Who is going to the conference? ( Who is the subject of the verb) + Who called? (Who is the subject of the verb) + Who is going to the conference? (Who is the subject of the verb) ``` Who also follows linking verbs and acts as the subject complement. ``` - His manager is who? ( Who follows the linking verb is ) + His manager is who? (Who follows the linking verb is) ``` _Whom_ is an objective case pronoun, and acts as the object of the verb or the object of the preposition. _Whom_ is not performing the action of the verb. _Whom_ can either receive the action of the verb or be the object of the preposition. ``` - To whom it may concern: ( Whom follows the preposition to) - Fred works for whom? ( Whom follows the preposition for) - Mary drives whom to school? ( Whom is the object of the verb drives) + To whom it may concern: (Whom follows the preposition to) + Fred works for whom? (Whom follows the preposition for) + Mary drives whom to school? (Whom is the object of the verb drives) ``` _Who_ is used as a subjective case pronoun, and _whom_ is used as an objective case pronoun. Still not 100 percent clear? There are a few tricks to make this easier. -1. **If** **_who/whom_** **follows a preposition, then the choice is always** **_whom_****.** **_To whom, -at whom, for whom, from whom._** -2. **Mentally replace the word** **_who/whom_** **in your sentence with** **_he_** **or** **_him_****.** If your -sentence makes sense switching the word to _he_ , then _who_ is the correct choice. Both -_he_ and _who_ are subjective case pronouns, so they work the same way. If your sentence +1. If who/whom follows a preposition, then the choice is always whom. To whom, +at whom, for whom, from whom. +2. Mentally replace the word who/whom in your sentence with he or him. If your +sentence makes sense switching the word to he, then who is the correct choice. Both +he and who are subjective case pronouns, so they work the same way. If your sentence - -makes sense switching the word to _him_ , then _whom_ is the correct choice. Both _him_ and +makes sense switching the word to _him_, then _whom_ is the correct choice. Both _him_ and _whom_ are objective case pronouns, and they follow the same rules. It is easy to remember that _him_ and _whom_ go together because they both end with the letter _m_. @@ -1501,26 +1443,28 @@ remember that _him_ and _whom_ go together because they both end with the letter This trick doesn‟t work for every sentence. If it doesn‟t work for your sentence, the next trick will work. -3. _Who/Whom_ phrases are often questions. One trick to discovering whether to use _who_ -or _whom_ is to just answer the question. If the answer could be _he_ , then _who_ is the -correct choice for your sentence. If the answer could be _him_ , then _whom_ is the correct -choice. If the sentence is not a question, you can isolate the _who/whom_ phrase and +3. Who/Whom phrases are often questions. One trick to discovering whether to use who +or whom is to just answer the question. If the answer could be he, then who is the +correct choice for your sentence. If the answer could be him, then whom is the correct +choice. If the sentence is not a question, you can isolate the who/whom phrase and read it as a question. +```  Who/Whom should I thank for this free coffee? (Answer the question.) I should thank he. (Wrong.) I should thank him. (Correct!) Who = he Whom = him Whom should I thank for this free coffee? (Correct!) - +``` +```  Who/whom is coming to the concert? He is coming to the concert. (Correct!) Him is coming to the concert. (Wrong.) Who = he Whom = him Who is coming to the concert? (Correct!) - +``` ```  I do not care who/whom she took to the dance. (This is not a question, so isolate the who/whom phrase and read it as a question.) @@ -1533,9 +1477,7 @@ I do not care whom she took to the dance. (Correct!) Academy of Learning Video on who/whom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3aEGrmsZ5c - -##### Whose - +**Whose** _Whose_ is a possessive pronoun. It is the possessive form of the pronoun _who_. _Whose_ can refer to people or things. Do not confuse _whose_ with the contraction _who’s_. _Who’s_ is a contraction of words _who is_ or _who has_. @@ -1546,7 +1488,7 @@ a contraction of words _who is_ or _who has_.  Do you know who‟s coming to the conference? (contraction)  Who‟s responded to the invitation? (contraction) ``` -##### Chapter 5 +Chapter 5 ## Verbs @@ -1563,8 +1505,7 @@ without verbs. They do not make sense without verbs. Verbs can be sorted into three different categories: action verbs, linking verbs, and helping verbs. -##### Action verbs show the action in a sentence. Cook, drive, run, spin, jump, fly, and - +**Action verbs** show the action in a sentence. _Cook, drive, run, spin, jump, fly,_ and _twirl_ are all action verbs. Action verbs can be sorted even more. Action verbs are either transitive or intransitive. @@ -1572,19 +1513,18 @@ A **transitive verb** transfers its action onto a direct object. It helps that b and transfer begin with trans-. ``` - Fred made soup. ( Made is a transitive verb. It transfers the action made to the + Fred made soup. (Made is a transitive verb. It transfers the action made to the soup.)  Fred made. (Incorrect. Made is a transitive verb and needs a direct object in order for the sentence to make sense. This sentence does not make any sense.) ``` - An **intransitive verb** does not have a direct object. Intransitive verbs do not need direct objects in order for the sentence to make sense. ``` - Mary ran. ( Ran is an intransitive verb. It does not need a direct object to + Mary ran. (Ran is an intransitive verb. It does not need a direct object to complete the meaning of the sentence.) - Sarah stood. ( Stood is an intransitive verb. It does not need a direct object to + Sarah stood. (Stood is an intransitive verb. It does not need a direct object to complete the meaning of the sentence.) ``` Most verbs are both transitive and intransitive. It just depends on how the verb is being @@ -1593,7 +1533,7 @@ used in a sentence. ```  Mary drove. (Intransitive)  Mary drove the car. (Transitive. Car is the direct object and is receiving the action -of the verb drove .) +of the verb drove.) ``` There is a quick way to figure out if a verb is transitive or intransitive. Immediately after the verb, ask the question _whom?_ or _what?_ If you can answer the question with @@ -1604,7 +1544,7 @@ objects.  Dan flew the airplane. (Dan flew what? Dan flew the airplane. Airplane is the direct object. Flew is a transitive verb.)  Fred drove the kids to school. (Fred drove whom? Fred drove the kids. Kids acts -as the direct object for the transitive verb drove .) +as the direct object for the transitive verb drove.) ``` For more help with transitive and intransitive verbs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1FL05uW4Fg (Video on Transitive and Intransitive @@ -1614,22 +1554,21 @@ Verbs) #### Linking Verbs Linking verbs describe a state of being. They link the subject to more information about -the subject. All forms of the verb _be_ are linking verbs ( _is, am, are, was, were,_ and _has -been_ ). Linking verbs connect subjects to their complements. A complement completes +the subject. All forms of the verb _be_ are linking verbs (_is, am, are, was, were,_ and _has_ +_been_). Linking verbs connect subjects to their complements. A complement completes the meaning of the subject. ``` - Mary is the boss. (The linking verb is links Mary to the complement, boss .) - The bird is red. (The linking verb is links bird to the complement, red .) - The car was dirty. (The linking verb was links car to the complement, dirty .) + Mary is the boss. (The linking verb is links Mary to the complement, boss.) + The bird is red. (The linking verb is links bird to the complement, red.) + The car was dirty. (The linking verb was links car to the complement, dirty.) ``` -Some sensing verbs act as both linking verbs and action verbs. _Feels, appears, tastes, -seems, sounds, looks_ , and _smells_ are all verbs that describe the senses. Sometimes - +Some sensing verbs act as both linking verbs and action verbs. _Feels, appears, tastes,_ +_seems, sounds, looks_, and _smells_ are all verbs that describe the senses. Sometimes these verbs play on the linking verb team, and other times they play on the action verb team. How can you tell which team they are playing on? There is a quick trick. If you -can replace the sensing verb with a variation of the verb _be_ , and the sentence still +can replace the sensing verb with a variation of the verb _be_, and the sentence still makes sense, then the verb is a linking verb. ``` @@ -1651,20 +1590,20 @@ Helping verbs show up in sentences to help out other verbs. Helping verbs never up on their own. Instead, they help other verbs (linking and action) form verb phrases. The main helping verbs are all variations of the verb _be_. If a variation of the verb _be_ appears in the sentence on its own, then it is always a linking verb. If it shows up as part -of a verb phrase, then it is a helping verb. There are 23 helping verbs: _am, is, are, was, -were, be, been, being, has, have, had, do, does, did, may, must, might, can, could, -shall, should, will,_ and _would_. +of a verb phrase, then it is a helping verb. There are 23 helping verbs: _am, is, are, was,_ +_were, be, been, being, has, have, had, do, does, did, may, must, might, can, could,_ +_shall, should, will,_ and _would_. ``` - Fred is cooking dinner. ( Is is the helping verb. Cooking is the main verb. Is + Fred is cooking dinner. (Is is the helping verb. Cooking is the main verb. Is cooking is a verb phrase.) - Mary can show you the report. ( Can is the helping verb. Show is the main verb. + Mary can show you the report. (Can is the helping verb. Show is the main verb. Can show is a verb phrase.) ``` #### Active Voice and Passive Voice Transitive verbs can be sorted even further into active voice and passive voice. In -**active voice** , the subject is performing the action in the sentence. It is very direct. +**active voice**, the subject is performing the action in the sentence. It is very direct. Active voice is very clear, strong, and effective. ``` @@ -1677,7 +1616,6 @@ subject of the sentence is not performing the action of the verb in passive sent Often these sentences omit who is performing the action of the sentence. These sentences are vague about who performed the action of the sentence. Politicians often - use passive voice to avoid assigning blame. Because these sentences are vague about who is performing the action in the sentence, the focus of the sentence becomes the direct object. @@ -1701,22 +1639,20 @@ number of subjects performing the action (singular or plural); 2. the person spe (first, second, third); 3. the voice (active or passive); and 4. when the action happened. Verbs have a lot of work to do in a sentence! -##### Present tense verbs show action that is currently happening or a habitual action. +**Present tense** verbs show action that is currently happening or a habitual action. ```  Fred and Mary walk five miles every evening. (habitual action)  Mary drives the car to work. (habitual action) ``` -##### Past tense verbs show action that happened in the past. Regular verbs form the past - +**Past tense** verbs show action that happened in the past. Regular verbs form the past tense by adding -ed or -d. ```  Sarah traveled to Hawaii. (Event happened in the past)  Dan worked on the report. (Event happened in the past) ``` -##### Future tense verbs show action that will happen in the future. The helping verb will is - +**Future tense** verbs show action that will happen in the future. The helping verb _will_ is added to the principal verb to form the future tense. _Shall_ is another helping verb that can be used to form the future tense, but it is not as common. @@ -1724,14 +1660,14 @@ can be used to form the future tense, but it is not as common.  Dave will travel to Las Vegas next week. (Event will happen in the future)  You will receive an invitation in the mail. (Event will happen in the future) ``` -**Present Tense Past Tense Future Tense** - - +``` +Present Tense Past Tense Future Tense +``` ``` Singular Plural Singular Plural Singular Plural ``` -**First -Person** +**First** +**Person** ``` I walk we @@ -1745,8 +1681,8 @@ walked I will walk we will walk ``` -**Second -Person** +**Second** +**Person** ``` you walk you @@ -1760,8 +1696,8 @@ walked you will walk you will walk ``` -**Third -Person** +**Third** +**Person** ``` he, she, it @@ -1820,7 +1756,6 @@ dance dancing a verb. Unfortunately, irregular verbs do not follow any established rule. Be sure to look them up in a dictionary. A dictionary will list the past participle form of the verb. - **Present tense Past participle** walk walked @@ -1834,44 +1769,43 @@ feel felt Why are participles important? Participles are important to learn because they are used three different ways. -1. **Participles combine with helping verbs to form verb phrases.** Neither present +1. Participles combine with helping verbs to form verb phrases. Neither present participles nor past participles can act as a verb in a sentence without helping verbs. Helping verbs are required for a participle to work as a verb. ``` - Fred is cooking dinner tonight. ( Is is the helping verb. Cooking is the present -participle of the verb cook .) - Dave was planning to attend the concert. ( Was is the helping verb. Planning is -the present participle of the verb plan .) - Mary had blended the milkshake perfectly. ( Had is the helping verb. Blended is -the past participle of the verb blend .) - Sarah had studied all night. ( Had is the helping verb. Studied is the past -participle of the verb study. ) + Fred is cooking dinner tonight. (Is is the helping verb. Cooking is the present +participle of the verb cook.) + Dave was planning to attend the concert. (Was is the helping verb. Planning is +the present participle of the verb plan.) + Mary had blended the milkshake perfectly. (Had is the helping verb. Blended is +the past participle of the verb blend.) + Sarah had studied all night. (Had is the helping verb. Studied is the past +participle of the verb study.) ``` -2. **Present and past participles can also work as adjectives.** Adjectives describe +2. Present and past participles can also work as adjectives. Adjectives describe nouns or pronouns. -  Sarah enjoyed her **swimming** lessons. (The present participle _swimming_ is - describing the lessons.) -  The **dripping** faucet kept them awake. (The present participle _dripping_ is - describing the faucet.) -  The **wrecked** car was towed to the repair shop. (The past participle _wrecked_ is - describing the car.) -  The **broken** window was repaired quickly. (The past participle _broken_ is - describing the window.) - + Sarah enjoyed her swimming lessons. (The present participle swimming is +describing the lessons.) + The dripping faucet kept them awake. (The present participle dripping is +describing the faucet.) + The wrecked car was towed to the repair shop. (The past participle wrecked is +describing the car.) + The broken window was repaired quickly. (The past participle broken is +describing the window.) 3. Present participles can also work as nouns. When present participles are acting as a -noun, they are called **gerunds**. A gerund might look like a verb, but it is acting like a +noun, they are called gerunds. A gerund might look like a verb, but it is acting like a noun. Gerunds always end in -ing. ``` - Running is great exercise. ( Running is the present participle of the verb run and + Running is great exercise. (Running is the present participle of the verb run and is acting as a gerund in this sentence.) - Skiing is a winter sport. ( Skiing is the present participle of the verb ski and is + Skiing is a winter sport. (Skiing is the present participle of the verb ski and is acting as a gerund.) - Dave enjoys traveling to new places. ( Traveling is the present participle of the + Dave enjoys traveling to new places. (Traveling is the present participle of the verb travel and is acting as a gerund. Traveling is the direct object of the verb -enjoys .) +enjoys.) ``` **If a pronoun is modifying a gerund, then it must be in the possessive form.** There are a few exceptions, but it changes the meaning of the sentence. In most cases, the @@ -1882,7 +1816,7 @@ possessive form is needed. requires the possessive pronoun his.)  We objected to your buying the expensive tickets for us. (Not you. We did not object to you, but to the action of your buying the tickets. Buying is a gerund and -requires the possessive pronoun your .) +requires the possessive pronoun your.) ``` Remember that past and present participles cannot act as a verb without helping verbs. If a participle is hanging out in your sentence without helping verbs, it is either acting as @@ -1892,14 +1826,14 @@ an adjective or as a noun (gerund). #### Infinitives -An infinitive is the word _to_ plus the present form of a verb: _to swim, to run, to catch, to -drive, to learn_. Infinitives can be used as nouns, adjectives, or adverbs. +An infinitive is the word _to_ plus the present form of a verb: _to swim, to run, to catch, to_ +_drive, to learn_. Infinitives can be used as nouns, adjectives, or adverbs. ``` - Sarah refused to eat the brussel sprouts. ( To eat is the infinitive and is acting as -a noun. It is the direct object of the verb refused .) - Fred raced home to watch the football game. ( To watch is the infinitive and is -acting as an adverb. It is modifying the verb raced .) + Sarah refused to eat the brussel sprouts. (To eat is the infinitive and is acting as +a noun. It is the direct object of the verb refused.) + Fred raced home to watch the football game. (To watch is the infinitive and is +acting as an adverb. It is modifying the verb raced.) ``` A common error with infinitives happens when people change “to” to the conjunction “and.” @@ -1907,7 +1841,6 @@ A common error with infinitives happens when people change “to” to the conju ```  Be sure to call when you arrive. (Not be sure and call when you arrive.) ``` - ```  Try to arrive on time. (Not try and arrive on time.) ``` @@ -1922,7 +1855,7 @@ impact. Split infinitives are considered acceptable today if they are necessary or effect. Be aware that splitting infinitives can lead to awkward sentences. ``` - She decided to , on her way home from work, call her sister. (awkward) + She decided to, on her way home from work, call her sister. (awkward)  On her way home from work, she decided to call her sister. (better) ``` #### Participle Phrases @@ -1955,7 +1888,6 @@ Misplaced participle phrases can appear in other positions in a sentence too. Th phrases need to be placed logically. Modifying phrases should appear directly before or directly after the noun or pronoun that it modifies. If the participle phrases appear - anywhere else in the sentence, you might end up with unintended humor in your sentence. @@ -2016,22 +1948,21 @@ throw threw throwing thrown ``` write wrote writing written ``` - Most irregular verbs are words that we use regularly. If it is not a word that you are familiar with, be sure to check a dictionary for the correct way to form the past tense, present participle, and past participle. -[http://www.theirregularverbs.com/verbList.php?page=1](http://www.theirregularverbs.com/verbList.php?page=1) (Irregular verbs - present, past, +[http://www.theirregularverbs.com/verbList.php?page=1](http://www.theirregularverbs.com/verbList.php?page=1) [(Irregular]((Irregular) [verbs](verbs) [-](-) [present,](present,) [past,](past,) past participle shown) -[http://chompchomp.com/irregular01/](http://chompchomp.com/irregular01/) (Irregular verb exercises) +[http://chompchomp.com/irregular01/](http://chompchomp.com/irregular01/) [(Irregular]((Irregular) [verb](verb) [exercises)](exercises)) #### Lay vs Lie These two verbs are chronically mixed up. They are used incorrectly so often that the correct version might sound wrong. _Lay_ and _lie_ do not mean the same thing. _Lay_ means _to set_ or _to place_. For example, _she lay the book on the table. Lie_ means something -else. For now, let‟s ignore the definition that refers to an untruth. _Lie_ means _to recline or -to rest_. For example, _go lie down for a nap_. +else. For now, let‟s ignore the definition that refers to an untruth. _Lie_ means _to recline or_ +_to rest_. For example, _go lie down for a nap_. Remember transitive and intransitive verbs from the beginning of the chapter? This is a case where it is important to know the difference. @@ -2065,7 +1996,6 @@ Object ``` lie lay lying lain ``` - **Lay** (Transitive) Direct Object Required @@ -2105,7 +2035,7 @@ direct object.) Popular music gets lay and lie wrong all time. Bob Dylan, Woodie Guthrie, Kris Kristofferson, Chasing Cars, Miley Cyrus, Eric Clapton, and many other musicians use lay/lie incorrectly in their music. Why do they use it incorrectly? Musicians might be -trying to avoid the _untruth_ definition of _lie_ , and use _lay_ to avoid confusion. It is also +trying to avoid the _untruth_ definition of _lie_, and use _lay_ to avoid confusion. It is also possible that they used _lay_ because it rhymed with another lyric. The third option is that they don‟t know the difference. The bottom line is, don‟t rely on Miley Cyrus or other musicians to teach the rules of grammar. Sometimes they get it right, and sometimes @@ -2113,10 +2043,9 @@ they get it wrong. [http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/lay-versus-lie](http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/lay-versus-lie) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3k1xGZH3GI (video on lay vs lie) -[http://masterofgrammar.blogspot.com/2007/06/lay-vs-lie.html](http://masterofgrammar.blogspot.com/2007/06/lay-vs-lie.html) +[http://masterofgrammar.blogspot.com/2007/06/lay-](http://masterofgrammar.blogspot.com/2007/06/lay-)vs-lie.html - -##### Chapter 6 +**Chapter 6** ## Subject/Verb Agreement @@ -2128,7 +2057,8 @@ singular verbs. Plural subjects need plural verbs.  We are tired. (plural subject/plural verb)  The writing assignment was due. (singular subject/singular verb)  Several writing assignments were due. (plural subject/plural verb) - The student listens. (singular subject/singular verb) 3 rd person singular verbs + The student listens. (singular subject/singular verb) 3 +rd person singular verbs require an “s.” ``` #### Finding the subject @@ -2138,21 +2068,20 @@ tricky when other words get in the way of the subject. **Prepositional phrases** can appear in your sentence and disguise the true subject. The subject of a verb is never found in a prepositional phrase. Ignore the prepositional -phrase when locating the subject. Common prepositions include _of, to, in, from, for, -with, at, on, except,_ and _between_. +phrase when locating the subject. Common prepositions include _of, to, in, from, for,_ +_with, at, on, except,_ and _between_. ```  The names on the invitation were Fred and Mary. ``` - ```  The information from the president is listed below.  Everyone except Fred is attending the party.  The bill at the restaurant was paid in full. ``` Subjects can be difficult to find when they appear near phrases that begin with the -words _along with, as well as, in addition to, such as, including, together with, plus, and -other._ These are called **parenthetical phrases** , and they are often set apart from the +words _along with, as well as, in addition to, such as, including, together with, plus, and_ +_other._ These are called **parenthetical phrases**, and they are often set apart from the rest of the sentence with commas. Parenthetical phrases do not contain sentence subjects. The information in the parenthetical phrase is de-emphasized in the sentence. It is not as important to the sentence as the subject. It is fine to use these phrases, but @@ -2191,16 +2120,14 @@ are how important?) ``` #### Basic Rules for Subject-Verb Agreement - Once you have located the subject, decide whether the subject is singular or plural and select the verb that agrees in number. A singular subject requires a singular verb. A plural subject requires a plural verb. There are a few cases when this can be challenging. -##### Subjects joined by and - +**Subjects joined by and** The conjunction _and_ joins words together. When one subject is added to another -subject using the conjunction _and_ , the subject is usually plural. The conjunction _and_ +subject using the conjunction _and_, the subject is usually plural. The conjunction _and_ adds the subjects together and makes the subject plural. Plural subjects require plural verbs. @@ -2208,50 +2135,48 @@ verbs.  Fred and Mary order coffee every morning. (Fred and Mary form a compound subject, joined by the word and. Mary and Fred is plural, so the verb order is plural.) - Debbie and Dave are flying to Hawaii. ( Debbie and Dave form a compound + Debbie and Dave are flying to Hawaii. (Debbie and Dave form a compound subject, joined by the word and. Debbie and Dave is plural, so the verb are is plural.) ``` -##### Subjects joined by and are singular in only two cases. +**Subjects joined by and are singular in only two cases.** -**1.** When the subjects are preceded by the words _each_ or _every_ , the verb is singular. -Think of it as each _and every single thing._ +1. When the subjects are preceded by the words each or every, the verb is singular. +Think of it as each and every single thing. ``` - Every student and instructor is eligible for a prize. ( Think of the sentence as, + Every student and instructor is eligible for a prize. (Think of the sentence as, “Every single student and every single instructor is eligible for a prize.”)  Each report and check needs to be signed. (Think of the sentence as, “Each individual report and each individual check needs to be signed.”) ``` -**2.** When the subject joined by and represents a single person or thing, it is considered +2. When the subject joined by and represents a single person or thing, it is considered singular. For example, macaroni and cheese is a singular noun. It refers to one dish. ```  Macaroni and cheese is her favorite meal. (Macaroni and cheese represents a single dish, so the subject is singular.) ``` -##### Subjects joined by or or nor - -When two or more subjects are joined by _or_ or _nor_ , the conjunction _or_ and _nor_ means it +**Subjects joined by or or nor** +When two or more subjects are joined by _or_ or _nor_, the conjunction _or_ and _nor_ means it is either one or the other. _Or_ does not add the subjects together. _Or_ implies a choice -between one or the other. **The verb must agree with the closest subject in the -sentence.** It often helps to ignore the other half of the sentence when choosing the +between one or the other. **The verb must agree with the closest subject in the** +**sentence.** It often helps to ignore the other half of the sentence when choosing the correct verb. ```  Either you or Sam was responsible for bringing the coffee. (The closest subject is -Sam. The verb agrees with Sam .) +Sam. The verb agrees with Sam.) ``` - ```  Either Sam or you were responsible for bringing the coffee. (The closest subject -is you. The verb agrees with you .) +is you. The verb agrees with you.)  Neither the cats nor the dog is eating. (The closest subject is dog. The verb -agrees with dog .) +agrees with dog.)  Neither the dog nor the cats are eating. (The closest subject is cats. The verb -agrees with cats .) +agrees with cats.) ``` -When dealing with subjects joined by _or_ or _nor_ , if one part is singular and the other part +When dealing with subjects joined by _or_ or _nor_, if one part is singular and the other part is plural, it often sounds more natural to put the plural part closer to the verb. ``` @@ -2260,9 +2185,9 @@ correct, but might sound awkward.)  Neither the letter nor the packages were delivered on time. (Grammatically correct and sounds natural.) ``` -**TIP:** **_Either_** **always pairs up with** **_or_****.** **_Neither_** **always pairs up with** **_nor_****.** +**TIP: Either always pairs up with or. Neither always pairs up with nor.** -##### Company and Organization Names +**Company and Organization Names** Company names require singular verbs, even if they end in the letter _s_. Companies such as Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, and Macy‟s might look plural, but they are @@ -2278,7 +2203,7 @@ single company.) ``` #### Challenges with Subject/Verb Agreement -##### Indefinite Pronouns +**Indefinite Pronouns** Indefinite pronouns are vague, and figuring out whether an indefinite pronoun is singular or plural can be challenging. _Everybody_ sounds like a lot of people, but it is considered @@ -2286,7 +2211,6 @@ singular. Some indefinite pronouns are always singular, and some are always plur sure to check the chart if you are not sure. Singular pronouns require singular verbs. Plural pronouns require plural verbs. - Some indefinite pronouns are singular or plural depending on how they are being used in a sentence. _All, more, most, some, any,_ and _none_ can be singular or plural, depending on how they are being used in a sentence. Occasionally, a prepositional @@ -2297,10 +2221,10 @@ is singular or plural. ```  Everyone in the family is here. (singular subject/singular verb)  Both are good choices. (plural subject/plural verb) - Most of the students are here today. ( Most is plural in this sentence. The + Most of the students are here today. (Most is plural in this sentence. The prepositional phrase reveals that most refers to the students. Plural subject/plural verb) - Most of her coffee is gone. ( Most is singular in this sentence. The prepositional + Most of her coffee is gone. (Most is singular in this sentence. The prepositional phrase reveals that most refers to her coffee. Singular subject/singular verb) ``` ``` @@ -2330,7 +2254,7 @@ Nothing someone ``` Somebody something ``` -##### Collective Nouns as Subjects +**Collective Nouns as Subjects** Collective nouns such as _committee, jury, team, group, family, crowd, class, flock,_ and _audience_ may be singular or plural depending on how they are being used in the @@ -2340,22 +2264,20 @@ collective noun is acting separately, then the noun is considered plural and req plural verb. This can sound awkward. It often helps to rewrite the sentence so the subject is plural. - ``` - The team has worked well together all season. ( Team is acting as a singular + The team has worked well together all season. (Team is acting as a singular unit.) - The class is working hard on the assignment. ( Class is acting as a singular + The class is working hard on the assignment. (Class is acting as a singular unit.)  The jury were divided in their opinions. (The jury is not acting as a unit, so it is plural. It sounds awkward, but it is grammatically correct. It sounds better to say -The jury members were divided in their opinions .) +The jury members were divided in their opinions.)  The team were practicing individually before the game. (The team is not acting as a unit, so it is considered plural. It sounds awkward. It sounds better to say The team members were practicing individually before the game.) ``` -##### Distinction between the number and a number - -When the word _number_ is the subject of a sentence, the adjective article ( _the_ or _a_ ) +**Distinction between the number and a number** +When the word _number_ is the subject of a sentence, the adjective article (_the_ or _a_) reveals whether the noun is singular or plural. **The** number = singular @@ -2369,8 +2291,7 @@ verb)  The number of text messages sent last month is too high. (singular subject/singular verb) ``` -##### Quantities and Measures - +**Quantities and Measures** When quantities and measures refer to total amounts, the subject is singular. ``` @@ -2387,25 +2308,23 @@ unit, but as 200 individual quarters. Plural subject/plural verb)  Four days a month are set aside for meetings. (The four days are not acting as a unit, but as four individual days. Plural subject/plural verb) ``` - -##### Fractions, portions, and percentages - +**Fractions, portions, and percentages** Fractions, portions, and percentages can serve as the subject of a sentence. Fractions, portions, and percentages may be singular or plural depending on the nouns they refer to in the same sentence. The prepositional phrase often offers a clue to help determine whether the subject is singular or plural. ``` - One third of the assignment was incorrect. ( One third is singular because it + One third of the assignment was incorrect. (One third is singular because it refers to a singular assignment.) - Only one third of the students are here on time. ( One third is plural because it -refers to the plural noun students. ) - A percentage of the report covers new research. ( A percentage is singular + Only one third of the students are here on time. (One third is plural because it +refers to the plural noun students.) + A percentage of the report covers new research. (A percentage is singular because it refers to a single report.)  A percentage of the books were checked out by Mary. (A percentage is plural because it refers to many books.) ``` -##### Chapter 7 +**Chapter 7** ## Adjectives and Adverbs @@ -2417,7 +2336,7 @@ language would sound bland. ```  (Without adjectives or adverbs) She wore a hat. - (With adjectives and adverbs ) She proudly wore a gigantic, blue cowboy hat. + (With adjectives and adverbs) She proudly wore a gigantic, blue cowboy hat. ``` Both sentences are grammatically correct, but the second sentence provides more information. @@ -2425,55 +2344,54 @@ information. #### Adjectives Adjectives modify and describe nouns and pronouns. _Three, purple, large,_ and _tall_ are -all adjectives. Adjectives are added to nouns to answer the questions _what kind is it?_ , -_what color is it?, which one is it?_ , or _how many are there_? +all adjectives. Adjectives are added to nouns to answer the questions _what kind is it?_, +_what color is it?, which one is it?_, or _how many are there_? ``` - I like yellow houses. (Adjectives answer the question what color? ) - Fred likes gourmet meals. (Adjectives answer the question what kind? ) + I like yellow houses. (Adjectives answer the question what color?) + Fred likes gourmet meals. (Adjectives answer the question what kind?)  The thick book sat open on the table. (Adjectives answer the question which -one? ) - Three birds sat on the fence. (Adjectives answer the question how many? ) +one?) + Three birds sat on the fence. (Adjectives answer the question how many?) ``` - -Adjectives also follow linking verbs. Linking verbs are all forms of the verb _be_ , and can -also be sensing verbs such as _taste, smell, look_ , or _feel_. If the sensing verb is +Adjectives also follow linking verbs. Linking verbs are all forms of the verb _be_, and can +also be sensing verbs such as _taste, smell, look_, or _feel_. If the sensing verb is describing an action, then it is working as an action verb. If the sensing verb is describing a state of being, then it is working as a linking verb. ``` - The basketball player is tall. (The adjective tall follows the linking verb is .) - The flowers are pink. (The adjective pink follows the linking verb are .) + The basketball player is tall. (The adjective tall follows the linking verb is.) + The flowers are pink. (The adjective pink follows the linking verb are.)  I feel bad about breaking the dish. (Not badly. The adjective bad follows the linking verb feel. If feel was working as an action verb, it would change the meaning of the sentence. I feel badly means that something is wrong with your sense of touch.)  Mary looks good in her new outfit. (Not well. The adjective good follows the -linking verb looks .) +linking verb looks.) ``` -##### Articles +**Articles** Articles are a specific category of adjectives. _A, an,_ and _the_ are adjectives that appear immediately before nouns, making the noun specific or nonspecific. -**_The_** is a **definite article**. The article _the_ describes a specific person, place, or thing. +**The** is a **definite article**. The article _the_ describes a specific person, place, or thing. ```  Please bring the book to class. (describes a specific book)  She went to the store. (she went to a specific store)  He wants the motorcycle. (He wants a specific motorcycle) ``` -**_A_** **and** **_an_** are **indefinite articles** and are used to describe people, places, or things in +**A and an** are **indefinite articles** and are used to describe people, places, or things in general. When do you use _a_ and when do you use _an_? It depends on the word that -comes next. **_A_** is used before words with a consonant sound, such as _a shop, a coffee, -a bike, a book, a one-week trip,_ and _a unit_. +comes next. **A** is used before words with a consonant sound, such as _a shop, a coffee,_ +_a bike, a book, a one-week trip,_ and _a unit_. ```  Please bring a book to class. (it doesn‟t matter which book)  She went to a store. (it doesn‟t matter which store)  He wants a motorcycle. (He wants a motorcycle, and he doesn‟t care which one.) ``` -**_An_** is used before words with a vowel sound, such as _an honor, an hour, an employee_ , +**An** is used before words with a vowel sound, such as _an honor, an hour, an employee_, and _an umbrella_. The word does not have to begin with a vowel, but it has to make the vowel sound. Be careful with words that start with _h, u,_ and _o_. These letters can make consonant sounds and vowel sounds. @@ -2483,10 +2401,9 @@ consonant sounds and vowel sounds.  She took an umbrella on a Utopian vacation.  Fred left an onion on the counter when he went on a one-week vacation. ``` +**Demonstrative Adjectives** -##### Demonstrative Adjectives - -_This, that, these_ , and _those_ are all demonstrative adjectives. Demonstrative adjectives +_This, that, these_, and _those_ are all demonstrative adjectives. Demonstrative adjectives must agree in number with the nouns they modify. Demonstrative adjectives also reveal whether the noun is nearby or at a distance. @@ -2505,32 +2422,31 @@ a distance.)  This class is my favorite. (The adjective and the noun are singular. The class is nearby.) ``` -##### Possessive Adjectives +**Possessive Adjectives** -Possessive adjectives appear before the nouns they describe. _My car, our garden, your -vacation, his hat, her coffee, its schedule,_ and _their retreat_. +Possessive adjectives appear before the nouns they describe. _My car, our garden, your_ +_vacation, his hat, her coffee, its schedule,_ and _their retreat_. ```  His car was in the shop, but he got a ride in her car.  I lost my book at your house. ``` -##### Compound Adjectives +**Compound Adjectives** Compound adjectives are formed when two or more words are joined together to form a single adjective. Compound adjectives are hyphenated if they appear immediately before the noun they modify. If the compound adjective appears after the noun, they are usually not hyphenated. Some compound adjectives are always hyphenated no matter -where they appear in a sentence. _First-class, well-known, short-term, old-fashioned, up- -to-date_ , and _full-time_ are always hyphenated. If a dictionary lists the compound +where they appear in a sentence. _First-class, well-known, short-term, old-fashioned, up-_ +_to-date_, and _full-time_ are always hyphenated. If a dictionary lists the compound adjective with hyphens, then it is considered permanently hyphenated. ```  The five-year-old child is five years old. (hyphenated before the noun, but not after) - A 15 -year loan takes 15 years to pay off. (hyphenated before the noun, but not + A 15-year loan takes 15 years to pay off. (hyphenated before the noun, but not after) ``` - ```  Dave and Sarah had first-class seats to a well-known resort. (permanently hyphenated compound adjectives) @@ -2542,11 +2458,11 @@ hyphenated compound adjectives)  They are hiring many part- and full-time employees. ``` Compound adjectives can use hyphens, but adverbs are not hyphenated when they -appear before a noun. _Newly opened clinic, freshly painted room, individually wrapped -candy_ , and _highly respected musician_ would not be hyphenated because they contain +appear before a noun. _Newly opened clinic, freshly painted room, individually wrapped_ +_candy_, and _highly respected musician_ would not be hyphenated because they contain an adverb. Adverbs often end in -ly and are never hyphenated. -##### Coordinating Adjectives and Cumulative Adjectives +**Coordinating Adjectives and Cumulative Adjectives** Sometimes it takes more than one adjective to describe a noun. If the adjectives are working independently to modify and describe the noun, they are called coordinating @@ -2554,7 +2470,7 @@ adjectives. Coordinating adjectives need to be separated with commas. To test wh the adjectives need a comma separating them, run the sentence through the following test. -1. Mentally add the word _and_ between the adjectives. If the sentence still makes +1. Mentally add the word and between the adjectives. If the sentence still makes sense, then move on to the second rule. 2. Mentally reverse the order of the adjectives. Does the sentence still make sense? @@ -2577,7 +2493,6 @@ adjectives. These adjectives are called **cumulative adjectives** because they b one another and need to stay in a specific order. No commas are needed between cumulative adjectives. - ```  The efficient administrative assistant got the work done in record time. (No comma separating the adjectives. Does it pass the comma test? The @@ -2592,17 +2507,17 @@ test, so no commas are needed between the adjectives.) ## Adverbs Adverbs describe and modify verbs, adjectives, and other adverbs. Adverbs can also -modify phrases or entire sentences. The word _verb_ is inside the word _adverb_ , so it is +modify phrases or entire sentences. The word _verb_ is inside the word _adverb_, so it is easy to remember that adverbs describe verbs. Many adverbs end in -ly, but some of -the most common adverbs do not, including _always, indeed, here, there, tomorrow, -today, later, never, now, sometimes, soon, when, where, not,_ and _too_. Adverbs explain -_where, when, how_ , and _to what extent_. +the most common adverbs do not, including _always, indeed, here, there, tomorrow,_ +_today, later, never, now, sometimes, soon, when, where, not,_ and _too_. Adverbs explain +_where, when, how_, and _to what extent_. ``` - Yesterday Fred arrived at work early. (Adverbs explain when ) - Please put your dirty dishes there. (Adverb explains where ) + Yesterday Fred arrived at work early. (Adverbs explain when) + Please put your dirty dishes there. (Adverb explains where)  Mary ran so quickly that she finished early. (Adverb explains to what extent, -how , and when .) +how, and when.) ``` Adverbs also follow action verbs. @@ -2616,15 +2531,14 @@ Some adverbs have two acceptable forms: slow, slowly; quick, quickly; deep, deep direct, directly; and close, closely. ``` - Sarah drove slowly. ( Or less formal : Sarah drove slow to the game.) - Fred called the president directly. ( Or less formal : Fred called the president + Sarah drove slowly. (Or less formal: Sarah drove slow to the game.) + Fred called the president directly. (Or less formal: Fred called the president direct.) ``` -##### Double Negatives +**Double Negatives** - -Double negatives occur when a negative adverb ( _no, not, nothing, none, hardly, barely_ ) -is used with a negative verb ( _didn’t, don’t, won’t_ ). Double negatives are considered +Double negatives occur when a negative adverb (_no, not, nothing, none, hardly, barely_) +is used with a negative verb (_didn’t, don’t, won’t_). Double negatives are considered unprofessional and grammatically incorrect. ``` @@ -2646,53 +2560,50 @@ adjective or adverb is used when it modifies only one word. The **comparative de used when comparing two items. The **superlative degree** is used to compare three or more items. -##### Comparative/Superlative Adjectives +**Comparative/Superlative Adjectives** -The comparative degree of one- and two-syllable adjectives is formed by adding _-r_ or _- -er_ to the ending ( _newer, older, taller, shorter_ ). The superlative degree of one- and two- -syllable adjectives is formed by adding _-st_ or _-est_ to the ending ( _newest, oldest, tallest, -shortest_ ). If the adjective ends in _y_ , change the _y_ to _i_ before adding _-er_ (for comparative) +The comparative degree of one- and two-syllable adjectives is formed by adding _-r_ or _-_ +_er_ to the ending (_newer, older, taller, shorter_). The superlative degree of one- and two- +syllable adjectives is formed by adding _-st_ or _-est_ to the ending (_newest, oldest, tallest,_ +_shortest_). If the adjective ends in _y_, change the _y_ to _i_ before adding _-er_ (for comparative) or _-est_ (for superlative). Long adjectives (three or more syllables) and adjectives that are difficult to pronounce form the comparative and superlative degrees by adding the words _more_ and _most_ -( _more beneficial, most beneficial_ ) and _less_ and _least_ ( _less popular, least popular_ ). +(_more beneficial, most beneficial_) and _less_ and _least_ (_less popular, least popular_). **Regular Adjectives** - -``` -Positive +**Positive** Used to describe the word -``` + ``` Comparative Used to compare two persons or things -(usually add r or er ) +(usually add r or er) ``` ``` Superlative Used to compare three or more persons or things -(usually add st or est ) +(usually add st or est) ``` - **One syllable** old older oldest **Two syllables** quiet quieter quietest -**Ending in** **_y_** happy happier happiest +**Ending in y** happy happier happiest -**Two syllables -(awkward)** +**Two syllables** +**(awkward)** ``` useful more/less useful most/least useful ``` -**Three or more -syllables** +**Three or more** +**syllables** ``` advantageous more/less @@ -2727,23 +2638,20 @@ degrees. These are called irregular adjectives. They play by their own rules. **many** more most -##### Comparative/Superlative Adverbs +**Comparative/Superlative Adverbs** Adverbs are used to modify verbs, adjectives, and other adverbs. One-syllable adverbs form their comparative degree by adding _-r_ or _-er_ to the ending. One-syllable adverbs form their superlative degree by adding _-st_ or _-est_ to the ending. Most adverbs are longer than one syllable. Adverbs with two or more syllables form their comparative by -adding _more_ or _most_ ( _more cautiously_ ) or _less_ or _least_ ( _less cautiously_ ). - +adding _more_ or _most_ (_more cautiously_) or _less_ or _least_ (_less cautiously_). **Regular Adverbs** - -``` -Positive Comparative -Add r or er for one-syllable +**Positive Comparative** +Add _r_ or _er_ for one-syllable adverbs. Most use -more/less. -``` +_more/less._ + ``` Superlative Add st or est to one- @@ -2752,20 +2660,20 @@ most/least. ``` **One syllable** fast faster fastest -**Two or more -syllables** +**Two or more** +**syllables** ``` neatly more/less neatly most/least neatly ``` -**Two or more -syllables** +**Two or more** +**syllables** ``` carefully more/less carefully most/least carefully ``` -**Two or more -syllables** +**Two or more** +**syllables** ``` beautifully more/less beautifully most/least beautifully @@ -2794,11 +2702,10 @@ describe nouns and pronouns. Adverbs describe verbs, adjectives, and other adver **Farther** (adverb - distance): How much farther are we driving? **Further** (adverb - additionally): We should talk about this further. -**TIP** : the word _far_ is hidden in the word _farther_. Farther refers to distance. +**TIP**: the word _far_ is hidden in the word _farther_. Farther refers to distance. **Sure** (adj. - certain): She is sure that she wants to go on vacation. - **Surely** (adverb - certainly): He will surely win the gold medal. **Later** (adverb - after a certain time): He will sign the contract later. @@ -2822,7 +2729,7 @@ count individually. #### Adverb and Adjective Placement Adverb and adjectives should be placed close to the words they describe, especially -with the words _only, merely, first, almost_ , and _last_. The position of the adjective or +with the words _only, merely, first, almost_, and _last_. The position of the adjective or adverb can change the meaning of the sentence. ``` @@ -2845,7 +2752,6 @@ participate in any other way at the meeting. He only took notes.)  He hit almost every car in the parking lot. (He hit a majority of the cars in the parking lot.) ``` - ```  He almost hit every car in the parking lot. (He came close to hitting a majority of the cars in the parking lot, but he missed them all.) @@ -2853,41 +2759,39 @@ the cars in the parking lot, but he missed them all.) [http://www.grammarbook.com/grammar/adjAdv.asp](http://www.grammarbook.com/grammar/adjAdv.asp) (Adjectives and Adverbs) [http://www.chompchomp.com/terms/adjective.htm](http://www.chompchomp.com/terms/adjective.htm) (Adjectives) -##### Chapter 8 +**Chapter 8** ## Prepositions Prepositions show the relationship of a noun or pronoun in time or space. Where are -your keys? They are **_on_** _the counter,_ **_in_** _your purse,_ **_under_** _the book, or_ **_between_** _the -groceries_. Prepositions can also show ownership, for example: _the wines_ **_of_** _France, the -beaches_ **_of_** _Hawaii, or the motorcycle belonging_ **_to_** _Fred._ Prepositions can show +your keys? They are **on** _the counter,_ **in** _your purse,_ **under** _the book, or_ **between** _the_ +_groceries_. Prepositions can also show ownership, for example: _the wines_ **of** _France, the_ +_beaches_ **of** _Hawaii, or the motorcycle belonging_ **to** _Fred._ Prepositions can show possession, location, direction, time, and figurative location. -##### Direction - toward, to, into, across, down, up - -##### Location - at, above, behind, across, beside, under, between, among, by, near, +**Direction** - _toward, to, into, across, down, up_ +**Location** - _at, above, behind, across, beside, under, between, among, by, near,_ _toward, in (Think of it as anywhere your keys could be hiding)_ -##### Time - before, during, after, until, since +**Time** - _before, during, after, until, since_ -##### Figurative location - for, against, with +**Figurative location** - _for, against, with_ -##### Possession - of, to +**Possession** - _of, to_ Prepositions are team players; they cannot act alone. A preposition acts as part of a prepositional phrase, which includes the preposition, the object of the preposition, and any modifiers. The object of the preposition is always a noun or pronoun. ``` - Please put your phone on the table. ( On is the preposition. The object of the + Please put your phone on the table. (On is the preposition. The object of the preposition is table. The is a modifier.) - Dan found the book under the couch. ( Under is the preposition. The object of the + Dan found the book under the couch. (Under is the preposition. The object of the preposition is couch. The is a modifier) - Christie went to class. ( To is the preposition. The object of the preposition is -class .) + Christie went to class. (To is the preposition. The object of the preposition is +class.) ``` - #### Prepositions and Pronouns If the object of a preposition is a pronoun, then it must be in the objective case (him, @@ -2903,38 +2807,35 @@ of the preposition is me. ``` #### Common Preposition Errors -##### Would’ve, could’ve, should’ve - +**Would’ve, could’ve, should’ve** Would‟ve, could‟ve, and should‟ve are contractions of the verb phrases would have, could have, and should have. When people use the contractions, it might sound like they are saying _would of, could of,_ and _should of_. It might sound similar when spoken, -but it looks different when it is written. The verb phrases are _would have_ (or _would’ve_ ), -_could have (_ or _could’ve)_ and _should have (_ or _should’ve)_. _Would of_ is never correct. +but it looks different when it is written. The verb phrases are _would have_ (or _would’ve_), +_could have (_or _could’ve)_ and _should have (_or _should’ve)_. _Would of_ is never correct. ``` - Nancy should have brought her book to class. (Not should of ) - Steve could have won the race. (Not could of ) - He would have brought the doughnuts, but the shop was closed. (Not would of ) + Nancy should have brought her book to class. (Not should of) + Steve could have won the race. (Not could of) + He would have brought the doughnuts, but the shop was closed. (Not would of) ``` -##### From, off, off of - +**From, off, off of** _From_ and _off_ are both prepositions, but they do not mean the same thing. They are not -interchangeable. _Off_ is the opposite of _on_ ; be sure that meaning works in your sentence. -Some people say “ _off of_ ” instead of “ _off_ .” This is considered informal. The extra +interchangeable. _Off_ is the opposite of _on_; be sure that meaning works in your sentence. +Some people say “_off of_” instead of “_off_.” This is considered informal. The extra preposition is not necessary for clarity, but it slips into casual conversation. For formal documents, do not add “of” unless it is necessary for clarity. ``` - Fred borrowed the book from Sarah. (Not off ) In order to borrow a book “off” + Fred borrowed the book from Sarah. (Not off) In order to borrow a book “off” Sarah, then the book would need to first be “on” Sarah. Is she wearing the book? Probably not. Does she own the book? Yes. Fred borrowed the book from Sarah. ``` ``` - Mary jumped off the diving board. (Not off of ) The meaning is clear and concise + Mary jumped off the diving board. (Not off of) The meaning is clear and concise without the additional preposition. ``` -##### To and too - +**To and too** _To_ and _too_ are have different meanings and they are not interchangeable. The preposition _to_ means “moving toward.” The adverb _too_ means “additionally, excessively, @@ -2951,8 +2852,7 @@ or also.” Many prepositions do similar jobs, so it is common to get confused about which one to use. -##### Among/between - +**Among/between** **Among** is usually used to speak of three or more people or things. **Between** is usually used to speak of only two people or things. @@ -2960,8 +2860,7 @@ use.  The border between California and Oregon is very mountainous.  Please divide the pie evenly among the six children. ``` -##### Beside/besides - +**Beside/besides** **Beside** means _next to_. **Besides** means _in addition to_. @@ -2969,8 +2868,7 @@ use.  The woman standing beside me in line ordered the last scone.  Besides the scone, she ordered two lattes and a muffin. ``` -##### Except/accept - +**Except/accept** _Except_ and _accept_ are different parts of speech. They might sound similar when spoken, but they are different. **Except** is a preposition meaning “excluding” or “but.” @@ -2980,55 +2878,50 @@ spoken, but they are different.  Everyone except Andrew was at school.  Ava will accept the award on his behalf. ``` - -##### In, into, in to - +**In, into, in to** **In** shows a location or position **Into** has three meanings and all of them show action: 1. Entering something 2. Changing form 3. Making contact -**_In to_** can happen when using the preposition _in_ , followed by the word _to_. These words +In to can happen when using the preposition in, followed by the word to. These words can show up next to each other in a sentence. ```  The chocolate chip cookies were in the kitchen. (location)  She walked into the kitchen to get a cookie. (entering something) - She drove in to see Fred. (preposition in followed by the infinitive to see ) + She drove in to see Fred. (preposition in followed by the infinitive to see)  He bumped into Steve last week. (making contact)  The caterpillar turned into a butterfly. (changing form) ``` -##### Like, as, as if, as though - +**Like, as, as if, as though** _Like_ can be used as a preposition to introduce a noun or a pronoun. Do not use it to introduce a clause. If everything after the word _like_ could form a complete sentence, -then _like_ is not being used correctly. Use **_as, as if,_** or **_as though_** to introduce clauses. +then _like_ is not being used correctly. Use **as, as if,** or **as though** to introduce clauses. ``` - Mary looks like a movie star. ( Like introduces the noun star .) - He looks as though he needs a vacation. ( He needs a vacation is an independent + Mary looks like a movie star. (Like introduces the noun star.) + He looks as though he needs a vacation. (He needs a vacation is an independent clause.) - She looks as if she had a haircut. ( She had a haircut is an independent clause.) - As I said in my text message, I am going to Starbucks now. ( Not like. I said in my + She looks as if she had a haircut. (She had a haircut is an independent clause.) + As I said in my text message, I am going to Starbucks now. (Not like. I said in my text message is an independent clause.) ``` #### Necessary and Unnecessary Prepositions -##### Necessary prepositions - +**Necessary prepositions** Prepositions are useful words. They show a relationship between a noun and other words in the sentence. Don‟t eliminate prepositions that are required for clarity in your sentence. Be careful when two prepositions modify a single object in your sentence. ``` - What did you step on earlier? ( On is necessary for clarity in this sentence.) - Fred graduated from college. ( From is necessary for clarity.) - My interest in and commitment to your program remain high. ( In and to are both + What did you step on earlier? (On is necessary for clarity in this sentence.) + Fred graduated from college. (From is necessary for clarity.) + My interest in and commitment to your program remain high. (In and to are both prepositions with the same object: program.) ``` -##### Unnecessary prepositions - +**Unnecessary prepositions** Too many prepositions can clutter sentences up with unnecessary wordiness. Business writing should be clear and concise. Eliminating unnecessary prepositions tightens up @@ -3036,9 +2929,9 @@ your writing. If the preposition is not needed for clarity, then remove it from sentence. ``` - Where are you? (Not where are you at ?) - Both students performed well on the test. (Not both of the students ) - Mary jumped off the diving board. (Not off of the diving board ) + Where are you? (Not where are you at?) + Both students performed well on the test. (Not both of the students) + Mary jumped off the diving board. (Not off of the diving board) ``` Many writers overuse the preposition “of.” Grammar Girl writes, “Of is a preposition, and although it‟s not an inherently evil word, overusing it can make your writing sound @@ -3046,10 +2939,10 @@ passive and fussy.” [http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/do-you overuse-of Other helpful links: -[http://www.dailywritingtips.com/5-ways-to-reduce-use-of-prepositions/](http://www.dailywritingtips.com/5-ways-to-reduce-use-of-prepositions/) +[http://www.dailywritingtips.com/5-ways-](http://www.dailywritingtips.com/5-ways-)to-reduce-use-of-prepositions/ [http://www.grammarly.com/handbook/grammar/prepositions/11/unnecessary-](http://www.grammarly.com/handbook/grammar/prepositions/11/unnecessary-) preposition/ -[http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/where-are-you-at](http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/where-are-you-at) +[http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/where-are-you-](http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/where-are-you-)at #### Ending Sentences with a Preposition @@ -3068,16 +2961,15 @@ Ending a sentence with a preposition is acceptable in informal writing.  What ingredients are in these cookies? (formal) ``` According to Grammarmonster.com -_Try to avoid ending a sentence with a preposition. This is not really a rule, but -lots of people think it is. So, to ensure you don't annoy your readers, just avoid -the situation. If rewording your sentence makes it sound too contrived, just go for -it and end your sentence with a preposition. (Sometimes, the cure is worse than -the "problem.")_ +_Try to avoid ending a sentence with a preposition. This is not really a rule, but_ +_lots of people think it is. So, to ensure you don't annoy your readers, just avoid_ +_the situation. If rewording your sentence makes it sound too contrived, just go for_ +_it and end your sentence with a preposition. (Sometimes, the cure is worse than_ +_the "problem.")_ [http://www.grammar-](http://www.grammar-) monster.com/lessons/prepositions_ending_a_sentence.htm#crAM5OyjTDmtHzJ 8.99 - #### Idioms Idioms are words and phrases that have a figurative meaning that is different from its @@ -3088,69 +2980,55 @@ weather. Native speakers know that “under the weather” means that someone is sick. _Dave is under the weather today_ means that he is not feeling well. Every language has its own idioms. If you are not sure of the meaning, be sure to look it up. -##### agree on (mutual ideas) The members agree on the uniform changes. - -##### agree to (a proposal or to undertake an action) Did you agree to the current - +**agree on** (mutual ideas) The members **agree on** the uniform changes. +**agree to** (a proposal or to undertake an action) Did you **agree to** the current proposal? She **agreed to** the change in schedule. +**agree with** (a person) I **agree with** you. We **agree with** her idea. -##### agree with (a person) I agree with you. We agree with her idea. - -##### angry about (a situation) Sarah was angry about being late for work. - -##### angry at (a thing) Dan was angry at the coffee machine for breaking this morning. - -###### angry with (a person) Are you angry with me? Theresa was angry with Johnny for - +**angry about** (a situation) Sarah was **angry about** being late for work. +**angry at** (a thing) Dan was **angry at** the coffee machine for breaking this morning. +**angry with** (a person) Are you angry with me? Theresa was **angry with** Johnny for forgetting her birthday. -##### behind the scenes (unseen) All of the preparation for the beautiful dinner - +**behind the scenes** (unseen) All of the preparation for the beautiful dinner happened **behind the scenes**. -##### by heart (from memory) She knows all of the words to the song by heart. - -##### correspond to (a thing) A skier‟s success corresponds to the proper snow +**by heart** (from memory) She knows all of the words to the song **by heart**. +**correspond to** (a thing) A skier‟s success **corresponds to** the proper snow conditions. - -##### correspond with (a person) Steve and Fred correspond with each other on - +**correspond with** (a person) Steve and Fred **correspond with** each other on Facebook. -##### differ from (things) Running shoes differ from hiking boots. +**differ from** (things) Running shoes **differ from** hiking boots. +**differ with** (people) I **differ with** you on many points. -##### differ with (people) I differ with you on many points. +**different from (not than)** This coffee is **different from** the one I had yesterday. -##### different from (not than) This coffee is different from the one I had yesterday. - - -##### expert in (not on) Dan is an expert in electrical engineering. - -##### out of the blue (unexpectedly) His marriage proposal came out of the blue and +**expert in (not on)** Dan is an **expert in** electrical engineering. +**out of the blue** (unexpectedly) His marriage proposal came **out of the blue** and took Sarah by surprise. -##### plan to (not on) We plan to vacation in Hawaii. +**plan to (not on)** We **plan to** vacation in Hawaii. -##### retroactive to (not from) Your raise is retroactive to August 15, 2013. +**retroactive to (not from)** Your raise is **retroactive to** August 15, 2013. -##### speak to (tell something) I must speak to the manager immediately. +**speak to** (tell something) I must **speak to** the manager immediately. -##### speak with (discuss with) They enjoyed speaking with you last week. +**speak with** (discuss with) They enjoyed **speaking with** you last week. -##### up in the air (uncertain) Our plans are up in the air until we hear from Kim. +**up in the air** (uncertain) Our plans are **up in the air** until we hear from Kim. Other helpful links on prepositions and idioms: [http://www.roanestate.edu/owl/prep_idioms.html](http://www.roanestate.edu/owl/prep_idioms.html) -[http://grammar.yourdictionary.com/parts-of-speech/prepositions/idioms-that-begin-with-](http://grammar.yourdictionary.com/parts-of-speech/prepositions/idioms-that-begin-with-) +[http://grammar.yourdictionary.com/parts-](http://grammar.yourdictionary.com/parts-)of-speech/prepositions/idioms-that-begin-with- prepositions.html - -##### Chapter 9 +**Chapter 9** ## Conjunctions @@ -3161,30 +3039,29 @@ work as the joiners. Coordinating conjunctions connect words, phrases, and clauses of equal value in a sentence. The coordinating conjunctions are easy to remember with the acronym -FANBOYS, which represents **_for, and, nor, but, or, yet,_** and **so**. +FANBOYS, which represents **for, and, nor, but, or, yet,** and **so**. ``` - Mary and Sarah went skiing on the mountain. ( And joins equal nouns.) + Mary and Sarah went skiing on the mountain. (And joins equal nouns.)  Mary drove the car on the way to the resort, but Sarah drove the car on the way -home. ( But joins equal clauses.) - Neither Mary nor Fred remembered to call home. ( Nor joins equal nouns.) +home. (But joins equal clauses.) + Neither Mary nor Fred remembered to call home. (Nor joins equal nouns.) ``` _Yet_ and _for_ are not as common as the other coordinating conjunctions. ``` - The ski resort was very busy, for it was a holiday weekend. ( For joins equal + The ski resort was very busy, for it was a holiday weekend. (For joins equal clauses.)  They visited the new ski resort, yet they stayed at their favorite hotel in town. -( Yet joins equal clauses.) +(Yet joins equal clauses.) ``` - The word _so_ should only be used as a coordinating conjunction in informal writing. In -formal writing, the conjunctive adverbs **_therefore_** and **_consequently_** can be substituted +formal writing, the conjunctive adverbs **therefore** and **consequently** can be substituted for the coordinating conjunction _so_. Conjunctive adverbs require a semicolon and a comma to set them apart from the rest of the sentence. Another option to avoid using _so_ is to remove the conjunction and begin the sentence -with **_because_** or **_although_**. This changes one of the independent clauses into a +with **because** or **although**. This changes one of the independent clauses into a dependent clause. No conjunction is needed to join these two clauses together. ``` @@ -3195,30 +3072,30 @@ comma is needed after the dependent clause.  Mary had to take the bus because her car broke down on her way to work. (Formal) The independent clause is first in this sentence; therefore, no comma is needed between the clauses. - Mary‟s car broke down on her way to work ; therefore, she had to take the bus. + Mary‟s car broke down on her way to work; therefore, she had to take the bus. (Formal) Conjunctive adverb used - Mary‟s car broke down on her way to work ; consequently, she had to take the + Mary‟s car broke down on her way to work; consequently, she had to take the bus. (Formal) Conjunctive adverb used ``` #### Punctuating compound sentences A compound sentence contains two or more independent clauses. Independent clauses can stand alone as a sentence. To punctuate a compound sentence, place a comma -before the coordinating conjunction. **To determine if a sentence is a compound -sentence, remember that the words before and after the conjunction must be able -to form complete sentences.** +before the coordinating conjunction. **To determine if a sentence is a compound** +**sentence, remember that the words before and after the conjunction must be able** +**to form complete sentences.** ``` - I swam many laps in the heated pool , and Dave ran five miles on the treadmill. + I swam many laps in the heated pool, and Dave ran five miles on the treadmill. (comma + conjunction)  Fred received a text message while he was driving, but he did not look at his phone. (comma + conjunction)  Mary cooked dinner on Monday, but Fred cooked dinner the rest of the week. (comma + conjunction) ``` -**Do not use commas when coordinating conjunctions join compound verbs, -objects, or phrases. If the words after the conjunction do not form a complete -sentence, do not use a comma after the conjunction.** +**Do not use commas when coordinating conjunctions join compound verbs,** +**objects, or phrases. If the words after the conjunction do not form a complete** +**sentence, do not use a comma after the conjunction.** ```  The school provided transportation to the event and scholarships to the students. @@ -3229,13 +3106,12 @@ students is not a complete sentence.)  Fred rode to the concert and parked his motorcycle in an underground parking garage. (No comma is needed because and joins the compound verbs rode and ``` - ``` parked. Parked his motorcycle in an underground parking garage is not a complete sentence.) ``` -**Independent clause + comma + FANBOYS + independent clause = compound -sentence** +**Independent clause + comma + FANBOYS + independent clause = compound** +**sentence** #### Conjunctive Adverbs @@ -3244,47 +3120,40 @@ one job: to join words, phrases, and clauses. Sometimes an adverb wants to play conjunction team. When that happens, it is called a conjunctive adverb. A conjunctive adverb is a connecting word that joins two independent clauses. Conjunctive adverbs transition from one thought to another thought and are sometimes referred to as -transitional conjunctions. A conjunctive adverb requires **a semicolon before it and a -comma after it. One syllable conjunctive adverbs such as** **_thus, then,_** **and** **_hence_** -**do not require a comma after it****_._** +transitional conjunctions. A conjunctive adverb requires **a semicolon before it and a** +**comma after it. One syllable conjunctive adverbs such as thus, then, and hence** +**do not require a comma after it.** **Common conjunctive adverbs include the following:** - accordingly however nevertheless - also in fact otherwise - consequently in the meantime for example - therefore indeed then - hence furthermore moreover - thus for instance likewise ``` - Mary usually drinks coffee every morning ; however, today she drank tea. + Mary usually drinks coffee every morning; however, today she drank tea.  The weather is hot today; thus we should go to the beach. (No comma needed after the conjunctive adverb because thus is only one syllable.) - Fred forgot his wallet at home ; consequently, he was unable to pay for the + Fred forgot his wallet at home; consequently, he was unable to pay for the meal. ``` #### Parenthetical Adverbs Many conjunctive adverbs also work as parenthetical adverbs, so be sure to pay -attention to how it is being used in the sentence. _However, therefore, indeed, in the -meantime,_ and _likewise_ also work as parenthetical adverbs. Parenthetical adverbs +attention to how it is being used in the sentence. _However, therefore, indeed, in the_ +_meantime,_ and _likewise_ also work as parenthetical adverbs. Parenthetical adverbs interrupt the flow of your sentence by appearing in the middle of a clause. Use commas to set parenthetical adverbs apart in your sentence. - ``` - We were , however, happy to pay for the meal. (The parenthetical adverb + We were, however, happy to pay for the meal. (The parenthetical adverb interrupts the flow of the sentence and does not join two independent clauses. It is set apart with commas.) - I , therefore, appreciate your not texting during class. (The parenthetical adverb + I, therefore, appreciate your not texting during class. (The parenthetical adverb interrupts the flow of the sentence. It is set apart with commas.) - Mary and Fred , likewise, appreciate your not texting during the meal. (The + Mary and Fred, likewise, appreciate your not texting during the meal. (The parenthetical adverb interrupts the flow of the sentence. It does not join two independent clauses. It is set apart with commas.) ``` @@ -3299,15 +3168,15 @@ not linking anything together; they are just interrupting the flow of the senten Subordinating conjunctions join dependent and independent clauses. Dependent and independent clauses are not grammatically equal, so they cannot use coordinating conjunctions to join together. Subordinating conjunctions work to join these unequal -clauses. Dependent clauses begin with a subordinating conjunction such as _after, -because, although, since, unless, while,_ and _until._ A subordinating conjunction limits +clauses. Dependent clauses begin with a subordinating conjunction such as _after,_ +_because, although, since, unless, while,_ and _until._ A subordinating conjunction limits the clause it introduces and makes it dependent on an independent clause. -**If the sentence begins with a dependent clause, then a comma is required -between the dependent clause and the independent clause.** +**If the sentence begins with a dependent clause, then a comma is required** +**between the dependent clause and the independent clause.** -**If your sentence ends with a dependent clause (terminal dependent clause) then -no comma is required.** If the terminal dependent clause provides nonessential +**If your sentence ends with a dependent clause (terminal dependent clause) then** +**no comma is required.** If the terminal dependent clause provides nonessential information or breaks the flow of the sentence, a comma should be used for clarity. ``` @@ -3326,7 +3195,6 @@ comma.) coffeehouse. (The subordinating conjunction is terminal. The dependent clause ends the sentence; therefore, no comma is needed.) ``` - ```  I am certain that I paid my cell phone bill, although I cannot find my receipt. (The terminal dependent clause adds unnecessary information and is set apart with a @@ -3338,15 +3206,15 @@ Parenthetical clauses interrupt the flow of the sentence with additional and non information. These clauses are set apart from the rest of the sentence with commas. ``` - The grammar class , until I hear otherwise, is the most beneficial class on + The grammar class, until I hear otherwise, is the most beneficial class on campus. (Nonessential information is set apart with commas) - Her shoes , that she bought on sale last week, were ruined in the rain. + Her shoes, that she bought on sale last week, were ruined in the rain. (Nonessential information is set apart with commas) ``` #### Relative Clauses -Relative clauses are clauses introduced by the relative pronouns _who, whom, whose, -which_ , and _that._ When relative pronouns introduce a dependent clause, they are +Relative clauses are clauses introduced by the relative pronouns _who, whom, whose,_ +_which_, and _that._ When relative pronouns introduce a dependent clause, they are functioning as a conjunction. **Relative pronoun Refers to Used to introduce** @@ -3357,9 +3225,9 @@ that animals and things essential clauses which animals and things nonessential clauses -***Deciding whether a clause is essential or nonessential can be tricky. An -essential clause is needed to identify the noun to which it refers, and no commas -should separate this clause from the antecedent.** +***Deciding whether a clause is essential or nonessential can be tricky. An** +**essential clause is needed to identify the noun to which it refers, and no commas** +**should separate this clause from the antecedent.** ```  A student who wants to earn a good grade must attend class regularly. (The @@ -3373,16 +3241,14 @@ necessary. The main clause is understandable without this additional information clause is nonessential, it is set apart from the sentence with commas on both sides of the clause. - ``` - The coffeehouse , which is right next to the school, serves very delicious coffee + The coffeehouse, which is right next to the school, serves very delicious coffee and scones. (The relative pronoun refers to the coffeehouse, but it introduces nonessential information.) - Fred , who lives in South Carolina, is an excellent cook. (The relative pronoun + Fred, who lives in South Carolina, is an excellent cook. (The relative pronoun refers to Fred, but it introduces nonessential information.) ``` -##### Correlative Conjunctions - +**Correlative Conjunctions** Correlative conjunctions join grammatically equal sentence elements and are always used in pairs. **Both... and, not only... but, either... or,** and **neither... nor**. When using correlative conjunctions, be sure that the words, phrases, and clauses are @@ -3412,8 +3278,7 @@ is used after a dependent clause that is introduced by a subordinating conjuncti **Independent Clause + Subordinating Conjunction + Dependent Clause** (No comma is required with terminal dependent clauses.) - -##### Chapter 10 +**Chapter 10** ## Commas @@ -3431,7 +3296,7 @@ comma if only two items are listed. ```  She enjoys running, swimming, and rock climbing. (Series of words. Notice that a -comma precedes and ; this comma is called the serial comma.) +comma precedes and; this comma is called the serial comma.) ``` ```  She enjoys running on the track, swimming in the pool, and rock climbing at the @@ -3441,7 +3306,6 @@ gym. (Series of phrases.)  Mary is the owner, Fred is the manager, and Dan is the marketing assistant. (Series of clauses.) ``` - ```  She enjoys swimming and rock climbing. (Only two items listed. No comma required.) @@ -3451,19 +3315,19 @@ The items in the series must have the same grammatical structure. This is called item needs to be rewritten with an article too. ``` - The new student is intelligent, can be depended on, and punctual. ( Not parallel + The new student is intelligent, can be depended on, and punctual. (Not parallel construction. Two of the items on the list are adjectives, but one item on the list is a phrase.) - The new student is intelligent, dependable, and punctual. ( Parallel + The new student is intelligent, dependable, and punctual. (Parallel construction. All items on the list are adjectives.) ``` ``` - He asked for a hat, a Lego set, and for a gift card. ( Not parallel construction. + He asked for a hat, a Lego set, and for a gift card. (Not parallel construction. Two of the items in the series begin with a preposition. This needs to be rewritten. It can be rewritten so all of the items have the preposition, or only the first item is preceded by a preposition.) - He asked for a hat, a Lego set, and a gift card. ( Parallel construction .) - He asked for a hat, for a Lego set, and for a gift card. ( Parallel construction , but + He asked for a hat, a Lego set, and a gift card. (Parallel construction.) + He asked for a hat, for a Lego set, and for a gift card. (Parallel construction, but a bit wordy.) ``` NOTE: Newspapers follow AP Style. AP Style omits the final comma in a series @@ -3481,17 +3345,16 @@ sentence. Names, teams, and groups are set apart from the rest of the sentence w commas. ``` - Sarah , do you have the realtor‟s phone number? (At the beginning of the + Sarah, do you have the realtor‟s phone number? (At the beginning of the sentence) ``` ``` - Are you, the future leaders of America , ready to take the next step? (In the + Are you, the future leaders of America, ready to take the next step? (In the middle of the sentence) ``` ``` - Let‟s eat , grandma! (At the end of the sentence) + Let‟s eat, grandma! (At the end of the sentence) ``` - This comma is important. If you forget to place this comma, it changes the meaning of the sentence. @@ -3521,7 +3384,6 @@ beautiful and talented actress.) When two independent clauses are joined together with a coordinating conjunction, a comma is needed before the conjunction. - ```  Fred and Mary walked their dog to the park, but they left when it started to rain.  The rain finally stopped, and the children went to the park to play. @@ -3543,7 +3405,7 @@ separated with a comma.) #### Terminal Dependent Clauses When a dependent clause appears at the end of the sentence, a comma is usually not -necessary. If the dependent clause answers the question _when?, why?,_ or _how?_ , then +necessary. If the dependent clause answers the question _when?, why?,_ or _how?_, then the clause is essential and does not require a comma. If the dependent clause adds unnecessary information, then a comma is needed. This isn‟t common, but it is necessary to separate these afterthoughts with a comma. @@ -3566,19 +3428,18 @@ from the sentence, and the sentence still makes sense. Commas are required to separate parenthetical elements from the rest of the sentence. ``` - No , I will not be attending the conference. (At the beginning of the sentence) + No, I will not be attending the conference. (At the beginning of the sentence) ``` - ``` - We know , for example , that the book is overpriced. (In the middle of the + We know, for example, that the book is overpriced. (In the middle of the sentence) ``` ```  You have checked your writing assignment for accuracy, no doubt. (At the end of the sentence) - Marathon training , you must admit , requires a lot of time and stamina. (Commas + Marathon training, you must admit, requires a lot of time and stamina. (Commas are needed because the information is unnecessary.) - The sweatshirt , which happened to be bright yellow , sat on the sale rack for + The sweatshirt, which happened to be bright yellow, sat on the sale rack for weeks. (Commas are needed because the information is unnecessary.) ``` **DO NOT use commas to set off clauses that contain essential information**. If the @@ -3600,7 +3461,7 @@ noun or pronoun it is renaming. An appositive that provides nonessential informa should be set off by commas. ``` - Sam Jones, the union representative , is here. (The appositive adds + Sam Jones, the union representative, is here. (The appositive adds nonessential information; commas set it off.) ``` ``` @@ -3622,7 +3483,6 @@ Closely related one-word appositives do not require commas. ``` #### Commas and the Adverb too - The adverb _too_ requires different punctuation depending on its meaning in the sentence. If the sentence uses the word _too_ to mean “also,” it is set apart with commas. If the adverb appears at the end of a clause, you do not need to separate it with a @@ -3634,43 +3494,39 @@ with commas. ```  Many students will be at the event too. (End of the sentence.) - You, too , can make an entrance at the event. (In the middle of the sentence, set + You, too, can make an entrance at the event. (In the middle of the sentence, set apart with commas.  That joke was too funny. (Too means excessively in this sentence. No commas are needed.) ``` #### Commas and Introductory Phrases -##### Introductory Verbal Phrases - +**Introductory Verbal Phrases** Verb phrases that appear before an independent clause should be followed with commas. Introductory verbal phrases modify the subject of the main clause. Be sure that your introductory phrase is modifying the intended subject. ``` - Running the marathon , Mary listened to music with a strong beat. (Introductory + Running the marathon, Mary listened to music with a strong beat. (Introductory verb phrase separated with a comma) - Working long hours , we finished the project early. (Introductory verb phrase + Working long hours, we finished the project early. (Introductory verb phrase separated with a comma) ``` -##### Introductory Prepositional Phrases - +**Introductory Prepositional Phrases** Prepositional phrases can also introduce sentences. Introductory prepositional phrases with four words or more should be followed by a comma. ```  In March we expect the sun to shine. (No comma is needed. Introductory prepositional phrase is only 2 words) - By the middle of March , the sun will shine more often in Seattle. (Introductory + By the middle of March, the sun will shine more often in Seattle. (Introductory prepositional phrase separated with a comma) ``` - #### Dates, Time Zones, Addresses, and Geographic #### Locations -##### Dates - +**Dates** Dates can be comprised of a number of different parts, such as weekday, calendar day, and year. When writing dates with more than two parts, commas are used to separate the different elements in the sentence to provide clarity. The month and date are never @@ -3692,8 +3548,7 @@ never separated with commas. Commas separate other parts in this list.)  In March 2012 investors saw the stock price increase substantially. (Only two parts. No comma needed.) ``` -##### Time Zones - +**Time Zones** When writing a sentence that contains a time zone, commas separate the time zone from the rest of the sentence. Note that commas are used on both sides of the time zone. @@ -3705,8 +3560,7 @@ EST. ```  Dan ordered the flowers at 11:58 p.m., PST, and the coupon expired at midnight. ``` -##### Addresses - +**Addresses** When addresses are written in a sentence, separate each part of the address with commas. Do not place a comma between the state and the zip code. @@ -3720,9 +3574,7 @@ elements except the state and zip code, which are considered a single unit.) WA 98036. (Commas are used between all elements except state and zip code, which are considered a single unit.) ``` - -##### Geographic Locations - +**Geographic Locations** When referring to a location with both the city and the state, separate the city from the state with commas. Commas are used on both sides of the state name unless the state appears at the end of the sentence. Commas are also used to set off the name of a @@ -3743,7 +3595,7 @@ of the sentence.) #### Contrasting Statements Commas are used to set apart two related, but contrasting, statements. Contrasting -statements are often introduced by the words **_not, never, but,_** and **_yet_**. Not all +statements are often introduced by the words **not, never, but,** and **yet**. Not all contrasting statements are preceded by these words. If the sentence contains contrasting statements, separate the contrasting statements with commas. @@ -3768,7 +3620,6 @@ between the repeated words.) ``` #### Short Quotations - A comma is used before the quotation mark to set off a short quotation from the rest of the sentence. If the quotation is divided into two parts, commas are used with each part of the quotation. @@ -3780,8 +3631,7 @@ what you want most.” ``` #### Degrees, Abbreviations, and Numbers -##### Degrees and Abbreviations - +**Degrees and Abbreviations** Degrees, personal titles, and professional titles are set off by commas. The abbreviations Jr., Sr., and Roman numerals added to a person‟s name are not separated with commas. @@ -3791,8 +3641,7 @@ separated with commas.  Mary Elizabeth, MD, is currently accepting new patients.  Fred Jones Sr. is the father of Fred Jones Jr. ``` -##### Company Abbreviations - +**Company Abbreviations** Some companies have the abbreviations Inc. and Ltd. in their company name. Inc. and Ltd. are not set off with commas unless the company‟s legal name includes the commas. (This is not common.) @@ -3801,8 +3650,7 @@ commas. (This is not common.)  Pixar Inc. creates animated movies and short films. (no comma needed)  Apple Inc. invented the iPhone. (no comma needed) ``` -##### Numbers - +**Numbers** To avoid potential confusion, use a comma when unrelated numbers appear side by side in a sentence. Numbers of more than three digits require commas. Calendar years, addresses, page numbers, decimal points, and zip codes do not require internal @@ -3815,46 +3663,44 @@ side by side are separated with a comma.) than three digits.)  Their zip code is 98052. (No internal comma needed in a zip code) ``` - #### Quick List of Comma Rules -**1. Use a comma to separate three or more items in a series.** -  She likes apples, pears, bananas, and peaches. -**2. Use a comma with a coordinating conjunction (FANBOYS) to separate -independent clauses**. -  Fred likes to go out for dinner, but he also enjoys cooking dinner at home. -**3. Use a comma to separate an introductory dependent clause from the -independent clause.** -  Although it began to rain, we went for a walk around the neighborhood. -**5. Use commas to separate two or more adjectives that describe the same noun.** +1. Use a comma to separate three or more items in a series. + She likes apples, pears, bananas, and peaches. +2. Use a comma with a coordinating conjunction (FANBOYS) to separate +independent clauses. + Fred likes to go out for dinner, but he also enjoys cooking dinner at home. +3. Use a comma to separate an introductory dependent clause from the +independent clause. + Although it began to rain, we went for a walk around the neighborhood. +5. Use commas to separate two or more adjectives that describe the same noun. Try inserting the word “and” between the adjectives and reverse the adjectives. If the sentence still makes sense, then a comma is needed between the adjectives. -  She is an intelligent, capable student. (She is a capable and intelligent student.) -**4. Use commas to set apart nonessential parenthetical elements in a sentence.** It + She is an intelligent, capable student. (She is a capable and intelligent student.) +4. Use commas to set apart nonessential parenthetical elements in a sentence. It is considered nonessential if it can be removed and the sentence still makes sense. -  Fred is, without a doubt, the best cook in the family. -**5. Use commas to set apart elements in dates, geographical locations, addresses, -and titles in names.** -  Nancy Johnson, MD, moved to Paris, France, on July 15, 2013, to complete her - residency. -**6. Use commas to separate a short quotation from the rest of the sentence.** -  Mary asked, “Who wants to go to Hawaii in December?” “I do,” said Sarah. -**7. Use commas when necessary to prevent confusion.** -  To Nancy, Kennedy was the most charismatic president. -**8. Use commas when directly addressing someone.** -  Let‟s eat, Grandma! -**9. Use a comma when separating introductory words, such as yes, well, no, and -now.** -  Yes, I will be at the conference in Las Vegas. -**10. Use a comma to show contrasting statements.** -  These are my shoes, not yours. -**11. Use a comma when unrelated numbers appear side by side in a sentence.** - + Fred is, without a doubt, the best cook in the family. +5. Use commas to set apart elements in dates, geographical locations, addresses, +and titles in names. + Nancy Johnson, MD, moved to Paris, France, on July 15, 2013, to complete her +residency. +6. Use commas to separate a short quotation from the rest of the sentence. + Mary asked, “Who wants to go to Hawaii in December?” “I do,” said Sarah. +7. Use commas when necessary to prevent confusion. + To Nancy, Kennedy was the most charismatic president. +8. Use commas when directly addressing someone. + Let‟s eat, Grandma! +9. Use a comma when separating introductory words, such as yes, well, no, and +now. + Yes, I will be at the conference in Las Vegas. +10. Use a comma to show contrasting statements. + These are my shoes, not yours. +11. Use a comma when unrelated numbers appear side by side in a sentence. ```  By September 2014, 13 new cafes will be opening on campus. ``` -##### Chapter 11 +**Chapter 11** ## Semicolons, Colons, and Other @@ -3875,7 +3721,6 @@ closely related, then a semicolon is not the right choice.  Winter quarter is almost finished; finals take place in two weeks. (Correct! These two independent clauses are closely related.) ``` - ```  Summer quarter begins in July; I like coffee. (Incorrect! These two independent clauses are not closely related.) @@ -3895,12 +3740,12 @@ half of the sentence is a prepositional phrase and not an independent clause.) location. (Incorrect! Semicolons and coordinating conjunctions are never used together.) ``` -**Semicolons are used to connect two independent clauses with the addition of a -conjunctive adverb.** Conjunctive adverbs provide a transition between one clause and +**Semicolons are used to connect two independent clauses with the addition of a** +**conjunctive adverb.** Conjunctive adverbs provide a transition between one clause and the next clause. A semicolon appears before the conjunctive adverb, and a comma appears after longer conjunctive adverbs. Common conjunctive adverbs include the -following: _accordingly, consequently, for example, furthermore, however, likewise, -moreover, nevertheless, otherwise,_ and _therefore_. Shorter conjunctive adverbs like +following: _accordingly, consequently, for example, furthermore, however, likewise,_ +_moreover, nevertheless, otherwise,_ and _therefore_. Shorter conjunctive adverbs like _then, thus,_ and _hence_ do not require the additional comma. ``` @@ -3910,10 +3755,10 @@ high score from his instructor. information that was on the exam.  Mary updated her Facebook status before the movie started; hence she had many notifications when she turned her phone back on. (No comma needed after -hence .) +hence.) ``` -**Semicolons are used to separate items in a series when those items already have -commas.** Usually you only use commas to separate items in a series, but when the +**Semicolons are used to separate items in a series when those items already have** +**commas.** Usually you only use commas to separate items in a series, but when the items already contain commas, semicolons are added for clarity. ``` @@ -3923,9 +3768,8 @@ separate the locations, which are already written as city, country.) York, New York. (Semicolons separate the locations, which are written with internal commas separating the city and the state.) ``` - -**Semicolons are used to separate three or more independent clauses that appear -in a series.** These sentences can be long and wordy. If the sentence becomes too +**Semicolons are used to separate three or more independent clauses that appear** +**in a series.** These sentences can be long and wordy. If the sentence becomes too cumbersome, it is time to rewrite it. ``` @@ -3941,8 +3785,8 @@ explain, or clarify the information that appeared before the colon. Colons are o after statements that are complete sentences. Never use a colon after a phrase or a fragment. -**Use a colon after an independent clause that introduces a list of one or more -items**. All of the words to the left of a colon must form an independent clause. If it does +**Use a colon after an independent clause that introduces a list of one or more** +**items**. All of the words to the left of a colon must form an independent clause. If it does not form an independent clause, then do not use a colon. A list can be introduced by such words as _the following, as follows, these,_ or _thus_. A list can be written vertically or horizontally. Do not let the formatting confuse you. The rules still apply to colons even @@ -3974,13 +3818,12 @@ o Paris o London o Prague ``` - ``` (No colon is used for this list because the sentence would not form an independent clause before the colon.) ``` -**Use a colon to introduce long one-sentence quotations and quotations longer -than one sentence.** The entire quotation needs to be inside the quotation marks, +**Use a colon to introduce long one-sentence quotations and quotations longer** +**than one sentence.** The entire quotation needs to be inside the quotation marks, including the sentence punctuation. ``` @@ -4002,8 +3845,8 @@ do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. --Steve Jobs ``` -**Use a colon to connect two independent clauses if the second clause explains or -supplements the first clause.** If the information after the colon does not explain or +**Use a colon to connect two independent clauses if the second clause explains or** +**supplements the first clause.** If the information after the colon does not explain or illustrate the first clause, then a semicolon is a better punctuation choice. ``` @@ -4024,9 +3867,8 @@ game. (What was their huge problem? The second clause explains what the  10:59 p.m.  6:30 a.m. ``` - -**Colons are used to separate the title and the subtitle of books, articles, and other -publications.** +**Colons are used to separate the title and the subtitle of books, articles, and other** +**publications.** ```  Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can‟t Stop Talking (book title) @@ -4038,13 +3880,12 @@ title) Periods are most commonly used to end a sentence, but periods have other uses too. **Do not double space after periods unless you are typing on a typewriter.** Modern word processing adds the appropriate space after a period. If you double space your +document, you will end up with a lot of white space in your text. -#### document, you will end up with a lot of white space in your text. - -**Use a period at the end of a sentence that is a statement, a command, or an -indirect question.** This is the most familiar way to use a period. Indirect questions can +**Use a period at the end of a sentence that is a statement, a command, or an** +**indirect question.** This is the most familiar way to use a period. Indirect questions can be challenging because the sentence might sound like a question. The sentence may -even contain the word _question._ If the statement contains the word _wonder_ or _question_ , +even contain the word _question._ If the statement contains the word _wonder_ or _question_, look closely at the sentence to determine if the sentence is an indirect question or a direct question. @@ -4053,8 +3894,8 @@ direct question.  The instructor asked if there were any questions. (indirect question)  The students wondered when the sun would come out again. (indirect question) **Use a period to punctuate a polite request or suggestion.** Polite requests look a lot -like questions, but they are really commands. Polite requests add the words _can, may, -will, could,_ and _would_ to soften a command. The result is a command that sounds a lot +like questions, but they are really commands. Polite requests add the words _can, may,_ +_will, could,_ and _would_ to soften a command. The result is a command that sounds a lot like a suggestion. Polite requests are a way to command action in a less pushy way. Because these sentences are commands, they cannot be answered with a simple _yes_ or _no_ reply. A polite request is asking for action. @@ -4076,8 +3917,7 @@ request rewritten as a statement)  Please arrive ten minutes early for your appointment. (polite request rewritten as a statement) ``` - -##### Use periods to punctuate lower case abbreviations. +**Use periods to punctuate lower case abbreviations.** ```  a.m. (ante meridiem) @@ -4111,8 +3951,7 @@ a person‟s name, such as J. K. Rowling.  EXCEPTION: use periods when United States is abbreviated and used as an adjective (U.S. government) ``` -##### Punctuating after an abbreviation - +**Punctuating after an abbreviation** If the abbreviation appears at the end of a sentence, you do not add an additional period to the end of the sentence. If your sentence ends with a different punctuation mark, then the period and the additional punctuation mark are used together. This is @@ -4124,7 +3963,6 @@ your sentence.  Did you mark the course in ft. or yds.? (period used for abbreviation and question mark used to end the question) ``` - ```  Did you mark the course in feet or yards? (rewritten using the words feet and yards instead of their abbreviations) @@ -4146,8 +3984,8 @@ question.  That was the best movie, don‟t you think?  You didn‟t forget your wallet again, did you? ``` -**Use a question mark to punctuate statements that are meant to be read as -question or to show surprise.** Adding a question mark changes the meaning of the +**Use a question mark to punctuate statements that are meant to be read as** +**question or to show surprise.** Adding a question mark changes the meaning of the sentence. If you want the sentence to be read as a question, then add a question mark. ``` @@ -4169,7 +4007,6 @@ sentence.) The exclamation point expresses strong emotions, excitement, horror, urgency, and panic. Use it sparingly to avoid the impression that you are shouting. - ```  Wow! I won the lottery!  That is amazing! @@ -4203,8 +4040,8 @@ separate hour-long shifts.)  She has a lot of self-esteem.  The ex-president of the company was invited to the meeting. ``` -**Use a hyphen to write family titles that contain** **_ex, great,_** **or** **_in-law_****. The prefixes -s** **_tep, half_** **, or** **_grand_** **are not hyphenated.** +**Use a hyphen to write family titles that contain ex, great, or in-law. The prefixes** +**step, half, or grand are not hyphenated.** ```  great-grandmother @@ -4213,7 +4050,6 @@ s** **_tep, half_** **, or** **_grand_** **are not hyphenated.**  stepsister  stepbrother ``` - **Use a hyphen to divide a word over two lines.** This rule only applies if you are working on a typewriter. Most word processing software will adjust the spacing, and move the word to the next line. @@ -4261,13 +4097,12 @@ the parenthetical element.  All students--including Sam Jones--must take the test again. (Parenthetical element is emphasized.) ``` - ```  All of the desserts--especially the cheesecake--were devoured by the students. (Parenthetical element is emphasized.) ``` -**Use a dash to show an interruption of thought, an abrupt change of thought, or an -afterthought.** This is an abrupt form of punctuation for an afterthought. It is often better +**Use a dash to show an interruption of thought, an abrupt change of thought, or an** +**afterthought.** This is an abrupt form of punctuation for an afterthought. It is often better to rewrite the sentence. ``` @@ -4290,10 +4125,11 @@ list to the summary.) quotation. The dash and source should appear on a separate line and aligned to the right. +```  Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other one thing. --Abraham Lincoln - +``` #### Parentheses Parentheses are always used in pairs to enclose a complete sentence, a word, a @@ -4304,7 +4140,6 @@ There are three ways to punctuate parenthetical elements. Dashes emphasize the nonessential information the most. Parentheses emphasize the nonessential information the least. Commas neither emphasize nor de-emphasize the information. - ```  The advertisement, which appears on page 5, has a major spelling error. (Normal punctuation of nonessential information. The parenthetical element is not @@ -4335,8 +4170,7 @@ payment, and (5) click the submit button to complete your purchase. appropriate running shoes, (b) break in new shoes before the race, (c) incorporate a rest day every week, and (d) stretching is required. ``` -##### Parentheses and Sentence Punctuation - +**Parentheses and Sentence Punctuation** If the entire sentence is inside parentheses, then the period is also inside the parentheses. @@ -4353,7 +4187,6 @@ parentheses.  Sarah will travel to Hawaii next week (June 4). (The period is outside the parentheses.) ``` - ```  When we start Spring quarter (April 7), the weather will be warmer. (Comma is outside the parentheses) @@ -4391,16 +4224,14 @@ do not use quotation marks.  Walt Disney said that curiosity and imagination are important. (indirect quotation requires no quotation marks) ``` -**Use quotation marks to enclose the titles of magazine articles, songs, short -stories, television episodes, or a chapter of a larger book.** +**Use quotation marks to enclose the titles of magazine articles, songs, short** +**stories, television episodes, or a chapter of a larger book.** ```  The kids love the song “In Summer” from the movie Frozen.  Dave‟s favorite episode of Lost was “The Constant.” ``` - -##### Quotation Marks and Punctuation - +**Quotation Marks and Punctuation** **Periods and commas are always placed inside the quotation marks**. ``` @@ -4433,8 +4264,8 @@ is placed outside the quotation mark.) ``` #### Italics -**Use italics for the titles of books, magazines, movies, shows, plays, newspapers, -and music albums.** +**Use italics for the titles of books, magazines, movies, shows, plays, newspapers,** +**and music albums.** ```  Newsweek published the article about education. (Magazine title is in italics) @@ -4449,7 +4280,6 @@ words in a sentence without using their meaning in a sentence)  Many people confuse the words _lay_ and _lie_. (Use italics to refer to words in a sentence without using their meaning in the sentence) - **Use italics for slang words.** Some people prefer to use quotation marks. It is a personal preference. @@ -4486,14 +4316,13 @@ origin. Apostrophes never make a noun plural. formed by joining two words. An apostrophe takes the place of the missing letters. ``` - Can‟t (contraction of cannot ) - Won‟t (contraction of will not ) - Could‟ve (contraction of could have ) - It‟s (contraction of it is or it has ) + Can‟t (contraction of cannot) + Won‟t (contraction of will not) + Could‟ve (contraction of could have) + It‟s (contraction of it is or it has) ``` **Use an apostrophe in place of omitted letters or numbers.** - ```  „70s (1970s)  Class of „14 (class of 2014) @@ -4505,7 +4334,7 @@ used as the symbol for inches.  The room is 15‟ x 25‟. (15 feet by 25 feet)  She is 5‟ 4” tall. (5 feet four inches) ``` -##### Chapter 12 +**Chapter 12** ## Capitalization @@ -4523,7 +4352,6 @@ When capitalizing nouns, only capitalize the first letter of the word. It is cor _Washington_ and incorrect to write _WASHINGTON_. Only the first letter should be capitalized. Abbreviations are exceptions to this rule. - **Capitalize the first letter of the first word in a sentence.** If your sentence begins with a company name that is not capitalized, it is better to rewrite your sentence. @@ -4532,7 +4360,7 @@ a company name that is not capitalized, it is better to rewrite your sentence.  iPhones are very popular smartphones. (Technically correct, but it looks so awkward that it is better to rewrite it.) ``` -**Capitalize the pronoun** **_I_****.** It is never correct to use the pronoun _I_ as a lowercase letter. +**Capitalize the pronoun I.** It is never correct to use the pronoun _I_ as a lowercase letter. ```  If I were you, I would turn in the writing assignment on time. @@ -4546,13 +4374,13 @@ contains a proper noun. If the noun names something very specific, then it must capitalized. ``` - Specific names : Edmonds Community College, Eastern Washington University, + Specific names: Edmonds Community College, Eastern Washington University, and Cascadia Community College are all capitalized because they name specific colleges. - Specific companies : Starbucks, Microsoft, Boeing, and Alaska Airlines - Historical events : World War I, World War II, and the Great Depression - Specific products : PowerPoint, Excel, and Word - Specific academic courses : Accounting 101, English 102, and History 205. The + Specific companies: Starbucks, Microsoft, Boeing, and Alaska Airlines + Historical events: World War I, World War II, and the Great Depression + Specific products: PowerPoint, Excel, and Word + Specific academic courses: Accounting 101, English 102, and History 205. The general subjects of accounting, English, and history are not capitalized unless the subject contains a proper noun like English. ``` @@ -4562,9 +4390,9 @@ _city_ is only capitalized if it is included in the official name of the city. S includes the word _city_ in its official name, so it is capitalized. ``` - Specific geographic locations : Lake Washington, Lake Erie, and Lake Tahoe - Specific countries : France, Canada, Spain, and Italy - Specific continents : North America, South America, Africa, and Asia + Specific geographic locations: Lake Washington, Lake Erie, and Lake Tahoe + Specific countries: France, Canada, Spain, and Italy + Specific continents: North America, South America, Africa, and Asia ``` **Capitalize the name of specific celestial bodies.** Do not capitalize sun or moon. Many planets have suns and moons, so these are common nouns. Earth is sometimes @@ -4572,7 +4400,6 @@ capitalized and sometimes lowercased. When it shows up in a list of other planet Earth is capitalized. If it refers to space, Earth is capitalized. If the meaning refers to something other than space travel or our specific planet, then it is lowercase. - ```  Jupiter, Mars, Venus, and Earth are all planets in the solar system.  Why on earth did you do that? @@ -4585,14 +4412,14 @@ proper nouns because it refers to a specific season. ```  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are all capitalized because they name specific days. - Mary loves summer days. ( Summer is not capitalized because it is a common + Mary loves summer days. (Summer is not capitalized because it is a common noun.) - The Fall 2014 course catalog will be available soon. ( Fall is capitalized because it + The Fall 2014 course catalog will be available soon. (Fall is capitalized because it is combined with the year to form a proper noun.) ``` -**Capitalize the first word and all main words naming specific newspapers, -journals, books, and articles.** Do not capitalize the conjunctions _(and, but)_ , -prepositions _(to, of, for)_ , and articles _(a, an, the)_ unless they are the first word in the title. +**Capitalize the first word and all main words naming specific newspapers,** +**journals, books, and articles.** Do not capitalize the conjunctions _(and, but)_, +prepositions _(to, of, for)_, and articles _(a, an, the)_ unless they are the first word in the title. ```  Grammar Girl Presents the Ultimate Writing Guide for Students is a great @@ -4600,8 +4427,8 @@ grammar book.  Capital in the Twenty-First Century is currently on top of the New York Times best seller list, but it is not a book about capital letters. ``` -**Capitalize formal titles (political, professional, military, nobility) that appear -before someone’s name.** Formal titles that appear after someone‟s name are not +**Capitalize formal titles (political, professional, military, nobility) that appear** +**before someone’s name.** Formal titles that appear after someone‟s name are not capitalized. The titles Mr., Mrs., Miss, and Dr. are capitalized when they appear before someone‟s name. If the title appears before the person‟s name, then it is part of their official title. If the title appears after their name, it is only describing their role, and @@ -4618,43 +4445,42 @@ House. Professor Jones.  Prince William and Prince Harry are princes. ``` - -**Capitalize family titles only if they precede the person’s name or are substituting -for a person’s name**. Aunt Sarah and Uncle Al are both capitalized because the title +**Capitalize family titles only if they precede the person’s name or are substituting** +**for a person’s name**. Aunt Sarah and Uncle Al are both capitalized because the title precedes their names. A broad reference to aunts, uncles, and cousins is not capitalized because it does not refer to a specific person. If the family title is preceded by a modifier, such as a possessive pronoun (my, his, her, our), then the family title is not capitalized. ``` - She is a mother now. ( Mother is not capitalized because it refers to a generalized + She is a mother now. (Mother is not capitalized because it refers to a generalized role.) - Say hello to Dad for me. ( Dad is capitalized because this is his name in this + Say hello to Dad for me. (Dad is capitalized because this is his name in this sentence.)  Aunt Sarah and Uncle Al were invited to the party. (The titles precede their names)  Her aunt and uncle were invited to the party. (The family titles are preceded by possessive pronouns.) - Andy has eight cousins. ( Cousins is not capitalized because it is a general + Andy has eight cousins. (Cousins is not capitalized because it is a general reference and not part of someone‟s name.) ``` **Capitalize specific religions and nationalities.** ``` - Religions : Christianity, Catholicism, Buddhism, and Judaism. - Nationalities : American, French, British, Korean, Japanese, and Russian. + Religions: Christianity, Catholicism, Buddhism, and Judaism. + Nationalities: American, French, British, Korean, Japanese, and Russian. ``` **Capitalize direction names if they are referring to a specific location**. Do not capitalize compass directions if they are used to describe a direction. ``` - Specific regions that include direction names : the Middle East, the East + Specific regions that include direction names: the Middle East, the East Coast, the Northern Hemisphere, Western Washington, and the South. - General compass directions are lower case : travel south, drive east, turn + General compass directions are lower case: travel south, drive east, turn north, and walk west. ``` -**Capitalize the main words naming specific departments, bureaus, divisions, -agencies, and committees.** If the noun refers to a general committee or agency, then it +**Capitalize the main words naming specific departments, bureaus, divisions,** +**agencies, and committees.** If the noun refers to a general committee or agency, then it is not capitalized. ``` @@ -4665,7 +4491,6 @@ Department of the Treasury. (Refers to a specific bureau and department)  The Accounting Department handles payroll. (Refers to a specific department)  Microsoft‟s Xbox Division is very profitable. (Refers to a specific division) ``` - **Capitalize the first word in a quotation.** ``` @@ -4692,71 +4517,50 @@ twenty dollars.  They need to work out a peace treaty. (Not capitalized because this is a general reference to a treaty and does not name a specific treaty) ``` -##### Quick List of Capitalization Rules +**Quick List of Capitalization Rules** -##### 1. Capitalize the first letter of the first word in a sentence. +1. Capitalize the first letter of the first word in a sentence. +2. Capitalize the pronoun I. +3. Capitalize all proper nouns. +4. Capitalize geographic locations. +5. Capitalize celestial bodies. (Jupiter, Mars, Earth) +6. Capitalize days, months, and holidays. +7. Capitalize the names of specific newspapers, journals, books, -##### 2. Capitalize the pronoun I. +**and articles.** -##### 3. Capitalize all proper nouns. +8. Capitalize formal titles (political, professional, military, nobility) +that appear before someone’s name. If the title appears after the +name, it is not capitalized. +9. Capitalize family titles only if they precede a person’s name or +when they are substituting for a person’s name. +10. Capitalize specific religions and nationalities. +11. Capitalize direction names if they are referring to a specific +location. +12. Capitalize the main words naming specific departments, +divisions, agencies and committees. +13. Capitalize the first word in a quotation. +14. Capitalize the first word of each item in a vertical list. +15. Capitalize the names of specific amendments, bills, laws, and +treaties. -##### 4. Capitalize geographic locations. - -##### 5. Capitalize celestial bodies. (Jupiter, Mars, Earth) - -##### 6. Capitalize days, months, and holidays. - -##### 7. Capitalize the names of specific newspapers, journals, books, - -##### and articles. - - -##### 8. Capitalize formal titles (political, professional, military, nobility) - -##### that appear before someone’s name. If the title appears after the - -##### name, it is not capitalized. - -##### 9. Capitalize family titles only if they precede a person’s name or - -##### when they are substituting for a person’s name. - -##### 10. Capitalize specific religions and nationalities. - -##### 11. Capitalize direction names if they are referring to a specific - -##### location. - -##### 12. Capitalize the main words naming specific departments, - -##### divisions, agencies and committees. - -##### 13. Capitalize the first word in a quotation. - -##### 14. Capitalize the first word of each item in a vertical list. - -##### 15. Capitalize the names of specific amendments, bills, laws, and - -##### treaties. - -##### Chapter 13 +Chapter 13 ## Numbers Why are there numbers in a grammar book? Writing numbers correctly in a sentence is a grammar issue and not a math issue. -**When writing numbers as figures, use a comma to separate groups of three -digits**. This adds clarity to the numbers. This rule does not apply to phone numbers, +**When writing numbers as figures, use a comma to separate groups of three** +**digits**. This adds clarity to the numbers. This rule does not apply to phone numbers, addresses, zip codes, serial numbers, account numbers, and page numbers. ```  The balance on the account is $14,300.  Her zip code is 98052. ``` - -**The numbers one through ten are written out as words. Numbers above ten are -written as numerals.** This is referred to as the Rule of Ten. +**The numbers one through ten are written out as words. Numbers above ten are** +**written as numerals.** This is referred to as the Rule of Ten. ```  The fruit bowl contains two bananas and three apples. @@ -4787,8 +4591,7 @@ year. ```  2011 was a busy year for the family. ``` -##### Money - +**Money** **Use numbers to express amounts of money.** A decimal point is unnecessary in whole dollar amounts. For clarity, always include a comma in dollar amounts of $1,000 or more. Use a dollar sign and a decimal point for monetary figures less than $1 if they @@ -4800,12 +4603,10 @@ than $1, it is acceptable to write the amounts as cents. Do not use the cents sy  The bake sale sold items for $.25, $.75, and $3.  The bananas cost 75 cents each. ``` -##### Dates - -**Use numbers (1, 2, 3) if the date follows the month**. Do not use _th, nd, rd_ , or _st_ after +**Dates** +**Use numbers (1, 2, 3) if the date follows the month**. Do not use _th, nd, rd_, or _st_ after the figure if the date follows the calendar month. Some word processing programs, - including Microsoft Word, automatically change the dates to the ordinal numbers (1st, 2nd, 3rd). Be aware that some programs will do this and delete the ordinal numbers when necessary. @@ -4814,15 +4615,14 @@ when necessary.  May 17, 2008, was an exceptionally warm day in Seattle.  They are scheduled to arrive on July 2, 2014. ``` -**Use ordinal numbers (1st, 2nd, 3rd) if the date precedes the month or if the date is -used without the month.** +**Use ordinal numbers (1st, 2nd, 3rd) if the date precedes the month or if the date is** +**used without the month.** ```  Seattle was exceptionally warm on the 17th of May.  They are scheduled to arrive on the 2nd. ``` -##### Addresses - +**Addresses** **Use numerals for address numbers except for the number One**. Use numbers for zip codes, address numbers, suite numbers, apartment numbers, or route numbers. @@ -4830,8 +4630,8 @@ zip codes, address numbers, suite numbers, apartment numbers, or route numbers.  Her address is One Elm Street, Apt. 2, Redmond, WA 98052.  His address is 7319 Maple Drive, Suite 310, Edmonds, WA 98020. ``` -**Street names numbered ten and below are written out as words (First, Second, -Third)**. Street names numbered greater than ten are written as ordinal numbers (11th, +**Street names numbered ten and below are written out as words (First, Second,** +**Third)**. Street names numbered greater than ten are written as ordinal numbers (11th, 12th, 13th). ``` @@ -4839,10 +4639,9 @@ Third)**. Street names numbered greater than ten are written as ordinal numbers  18061 85th Ave North  2025 Second Street ``` -##### Adjacent Numbers - -**When two numbers appear side-by-side in a sentence, write the first number in -words and second number as a numeral.** If the first number cannot be written in two +**Adjacent Numbers** +**When two numbers appear side-by-side in a sentence, write the first number in** +**words and second number as a numeral.** If the first number cannot be written in two words or fewer, it is acceptable to write out the number that can be written in fewer words. If both numbers are long, rewrite the sentence. @@ -4851,17 +4650,15 @@ words. If both numbers are long, rewrite the sentence.  The light fixture required ten 120-watt bulbs.  The campus dorms consist of twelve 200-unit apartments. ``` -##### Time - +**Time** **Use numbers to express time with a.m. and p.m.** - ```  The meeting starts at 11 a.m.  The meeting starts at eleven a.m. (Incorrect) ``` -**Numbers or words can precede** **_o’clock, in the morning, in the afternoon_** **, or** **_in the -evening_****.** +**Numbers or words can precede o’clock, in the morning, in the afternoon, or in the** +**evening.** ```  The meeting starts at 11 o‟clock in the morning. (Acceptable) @@ -4874,8 +4671,7 @@ than one way to express a single unit of time.  The meeting starts at 11 a.m. in the morning. (Incorrect. This is redundant because a.m. already explains that this time is in the morning.) ``` -##### Measurements - +**Measurements** **Use numbers to express weights, measurements, and temperatures.** ``` @@ -4883,18 +4679,16 @@ because a.m. already explains that this time is in the morning.)  Seattle reached 75 degrees Fahrenheit today.  The recipe requires 12 ounces of cheese. ``` -##### Large numbers - -**Use a combination of numbers and words to express large numbers. It is easier -to read as a combination.** +**Large numbers** +**Use a combination of numbers and words to express large numbers. It is easier** +**to read as a combination.** ```  Cleveland, Ohio‟s Balloon Fest released 1.4 million balloons into the air in 1986.  In 2013 the state of Washington had 6.97 million residents. ``` -##### Percentages - -**Use numbers to express percentages and spell out the word** **_percent_****.** The percent +**Percentages** +**Use numbers to express percentages and spell out the word percent.** The percent sign (%) is only used in technical documents and tables. ``` @@ -4902,26 +4696,23 @@ sign (%) is only used in technical documents and tables.  The flight arrives early 85 percent of the time.  Mary received a 25 percent discount. ``` -##### Fractions - -**Simple fractions are written as words when they can be expressed in two words -and when it is the only fraction in a sentence.** - +**Fractions** +**Simple fractions are written as words when they can be expressed in two words** +**and when it is the only fraction in a sentence.** ```  One fourth of the class turned in the assignment early.  We ate one half of the cookies before the party. ``` -**Use numbers to express long fractions, mixed fractions (whole numbers and -fractions together), and multiple fractions within the same sentence.** An extra +**Use numbers to express long fractions, mixed fractions (whole numbers and** +**fractions together), and multiple fractions within the same sentence.** An extra space is added between the whole number and the fraction. ```  The room measured 12 ½ feet by 18 ½ feet.  The smartphone was only ⅝ of an inch thick. ``` -##### Decimals - +**Decimals** **Use numbers to express figures with decimals.** If the figure is less than zero, a zero is placed before the decimal point. @@ -4930,8 +4721,7 @@ is placed before the decimal point. because the amount is less than zero.)  Seattle had 3.2 inches of rain last week. ``` -##### Grades, scores, voting results - +**Grades, scores, voting results** **Use numbers to express grades, scores, and voting results.** When writing scores, place a hyphen between the winning and losing scores. @@ -4940,8 +4730,7 @@ place a hyphen between the winning and losing scores.  Mary earned a 99 on her writing assignment.  The vote was 5-to-3 favoring the expansion. ``` -##### Company Names, Organization Names, and Product Names - +**Company Names, Organization Names, and Product Names** Some companies, organizations, and products have numbers in their legal business names. Write the name exactly how the organization writes it, even if it defies all of the rules regarding numbers. @@ -4952,172 +4741,168 @@ rules regarding numbers.  24 Hour Fitness  Super 8  A1 Steak Sauce - Pac- 12 + Pac-12  Big Ten ``` - #### Quick Rules for Numbers -**1. When writing numbers as figures, use a comma to separate groups of three -digits**. -**2. The numbers one through ten are written as words. All numbers over ten are +1. When writing numbers as figures, use a comma to separate groups of three +digits. +2. The numbers one through ten are written as words. All numbers over ten are written as numerals. -EXCEPTION** : If numbers under ten and over ten are used together in the same +EXCEPTION: If numbers under ten and over ten are used together in the same sentence, use numerals for all numbers. -**3. Numbers that begin sentences are written out as words. -EXCEPTION** : If the written out number consists of more than two words, rewrite the +3. Numbers that begin sentences are written out as words. +EXCEPTION: If the written out number consists of more than two words, rewrite the entire sentence. -**EXCEPTION:** It is acceptable to begin a sentence with a calendar year. -**4. Use numbers to express amounts of money. -5. Use numbers (1, 2, 3) if the date follows the month**. -**6. Use ordinal numbers (1st, 2nd, 3rd) if the date precedes the month. -7. Use numerals for address numbers except for the number One**. -**8. Street names numbered ten and below are written out as words (first, second, -third)**. -**9. When two numbers appear side by side in a sentence, write the first number in +EXCEPTION: It is acceptable to begin a sentence with a calendar year. +4. Use numbers to express amounts of money. +5. Use numbers (1, 2, 3) if the date follows the month. +6. Use ordinal numbers (1st, 2nd, 3rd) if the date precedes the month. +7. Use numerals for address numbers except for the number One. +8. Street names numbered ten and below are written out as words (first, second, +third). +9. When two numbers appear side by side in a sentence, write the first number in words and second number as a numeral. 10. Use numbers to express time with a.m. and p.m. -11. Numbers or words can precede** **_o’clock, in the morning, in the afternoon_** **, or** **_in -the evening_****. +11. Numbers or words can precede o’clock, in the morning, in the afternoon, or in +the evening. 12. Use numbers to express weights, measurements, and temperatures. 13. Use a combination of numbers and words to express large numbers. It is easier to read as a combination. -14. Use numbers to express percentages and spell out the word** **_percent_****. +14. Use numbers to express percentages and spell out the word percent. 15. Simple fractions are written as words when they can be expressed in two words and when it is the only fraction in a sentence. 16. Use numbers to express long fractions, mixed fractions (whole numbers and -fractions together), and multiple fractions within the same sentence.** +fractions together), and multiple fractions within the same sentence. - -**17. Use numbers to express grades, scores, and voting results.** +17. Use numbers to express grades, scores, and voting results. ## Commonly Confused Words and ## Phrases -##### You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you - -##### think it means. - -##### -Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride - +``` +You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you +think it means. +``` +``` +-Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride +``` Spell check will only catch words that do not appear in the dictionary. Spell check will not catch words that are used incorrectly. The following are the most commonly mixed up words. When in doubt, look up the words in the dictionary. - -**Accept** (verb) means to take, to receive, or to accept. _She accepted the award on his -behalf._ +**Accept** (verb) means to take, to receive, or to accept. _She accepted the award on his_ +_behalf._ **Except** (preposition) means excluding. _Everyone except Bill was invited._ **Advice** (noun) is a recommendation. _I went to the boss for advice._ -**Advise** (verb) means to give information or counsel. _She advised me to attend the -conference._ +**Advise** (verb) means to give information or counsel. _She advised me to attend the_ +_conference._ **Almost** (adjective) means nearly. _Almost everyone is here today._ -**Most** (adjective) means the greatest in amount. _Most students are happy midterms are -over._ +**Most** (adjective) means the greatest in amount. _Most students are happy midterms are_ +_over._ -**All ready** (phrase) means completely prepared. _The class is all ready to begin the next -chapter._ +**All ready** (phrase) means completely prepared. _The class is all ready to begin the next_ +_chapter._ **Already** (adverb) means previously. _I already completed my assignment._ **A lot** (adverb) refers to a large number. _She drinks a lot of coffee._ **Allot** (verb) means to parcel out. _He did not allot enough time for the exam._ **Alot** is not a word. -**Affect** (verb) means to impress, to influence, or to change. _The sunshine affected her -mood in a positive way._ +**Affect** (verb) means to impress, to influence, or to change. _The sunshine affected her_ +_mood in a positive way._ **Effect** (noun) is a result or a consequence. _The effect was a more cheerful disposition._ -**All right** - (adverb) two words meaning good, agreeable, acceptable, or reliable. _He is -feeling all right again._ +**All right** - (adverb) two words meaning good, agreeable, acceptable, or reliable. _He is_ +_feeling all right again._ **Alright** - nonstandard spelling. Do not use for formal documents, tests, papers, or business. -**Among** (preposition) means with more than two or in the midst of. _He walked among -the trees. He shared the cookies among his five friends._ +**Among** (preposition) means with more than two or in the midst of. _He walked among_ +_the trees. He shared the cookies among his five friends._ **Between** (preposition) refers to the space separating two points or shared by two things. -_The keys fell between the bookcase and the wall. Let’s keep the secret between you -and me._ +_The keys fell between the bookcase and the wall. Let’s keep the secret between you_ +_and me._ -**Assure** (verb) means to declare, to promise, or to proclaim confidently. _He assured us -that he would pay for the meal._ +**Assure** (verb) means to declare, to promise, or to proclaim confidently. _He assured us_ +_that he would pay for the meal._ - -**Ensure** (verb) means to guarantee or secure. _This letter of recommendation ensures -that I will be hired._ -**Insure** (verb) means to protect from loss or harm. _Police recommend that residents -insure their valuable items._ +**Ensure** (verb) means to guarantee or secure. _This letter of recommendation ensures_ +_that I will be hired._ +**Insure** (verb) means to protect from loss or harm. _Police recommend that residents_ +_insure their valuable items._ **Beside** (preposition) means next to. _Fred sat beside Mary at dinner._ -**Besides** (adverb) means in addition to or also. _Besides dinner, Fred and Mary went to a -show._ +**Besides** (adverb) means in addition to or also. _Besides dinner, Fred and Mary went to a_ +_show._ -**Bimonthly** (adjective) means every other month. _We have to wait 8 more weeks for the -bimonthly newsletter._ -**Semimonthly** (adjective) means twice a month. _Twice a month we receive the -semimonthly local journal._ +**Bimonthly** (adjective) means every other month. _We have to wait 8 more weeks for the_ +_bimonthly newsletter._ +**Semimonthly** (adjective) means twice a month. _Twice a month we receive the_ +_semimonthly local journal._ **Capital** (noun) refers to wealth. Also refers to a city serving as the seat of government. _Fred invested a lot of capital in the project. Olympia is the capital of Washington._ **Capitol** (noun) refers to the building used by the United States Congress. This reference is always capitalized. Capitol can also refer to a state legislative building, but -it is not capitalized. _Dave visited the United States Capitol. Dave has been to the state -capitol building in Olympia on several occasions._ +it is not capitalized. _Dave visited the United States Capitol. Dave has been to the state_ +_capitol building in Olympia on several occasions._ -**Cite** (verb) means to reference or quote. _Fred cited many psychology journals in his -paper._ +**Cite** (verb) means to reference or quote. _Fred cited many psychology journals in his_ +_paper._ **Site** (noun) refers to a position or a location. _The job site is in the middle of the state._ -**Compliment** (noun) refers to praise or admiration. _He told her that the book was -brilliant, and she accepted the compliment._ -**Complement** (noun) means to complete or to enhance. _The light wine perfectly -complemented the spicy meal._ +**Compliment** (noun) refers to praise or admiration. _He told her that the book was_ +_brilliant, and she accepted the compliment._ +**Complement** (noun) means to complete or to enhance. _The light wine perfectly_ +_complemented the spicy meal._ **Could care less** (phrase) means that you care. It is often misused to mean that you do not care. _Could care less_ means that you care. -**Couldn’t care less** (phrase) means that you do not care. _I could not care less about the -Kardashians._ +**Couldn’t care less** (phrase) means that you do not care. _I could not care less about the_ +_Kardashians._ -**Could have/could’ve** (contraction of the verbs could and have) _I could’ve gone to the -movies._ +**Could have/could’ve** (contraction of the verbs could and have) _I could’ve gone to the_ +_movies._ **Could of** (always incorrect) It sounds like _could’ve_ when it is spoken, but _could of_ is never correct. - -**Defiantly** (adverb) means challenging or resisting. _He defiantly glared at the teacher for -giving him detention._ -**Definitely** (adverb) means clearly and positively. _She will definitely be at the assembly -to accept her prestigious award._ +**Defiantly** (adverb) means challenging or resisting. _He defiantly glared at the teacher for_ +_giving him detention._ +**Definitely** (adverb) means clearly and positively. _She will definitely be at the assembly_ +_to accept her prestigious award._ **Disinterested** (adjective) means unbiased. _The judge was disinterested in the case._ -**Uninterested** (adjective) means indifferent or having no interest at all. _Dave is -uninterested in celebrity entertainment news._ +**Uninterested** (adjective) means indifferent or having no interest at all. _Dave is_ +_uninterested in celebrity entertainment news._ -**Elicit** (verb) means to bring out or bring forth. _The principal elicited a confession from -the students._ +**Elicit** (verb) means to bring out or bring forth. _The principal elicited a confession from_ +_the students._ **Illicit** (adjective) means illegal, unlawful, or immoral. _The use of illicit drugs is a crime._ **Farther** (adverb) refers to actual distance. _How much farther are we driving?_ **Further** (adverb) means additionally. _We should talk about this further._ -**TIP** : the word _far_ is hidden in the word _farther_. Farther refers to distance. +**TIP**: the word _far_ is hidden in the word _farther_. Farther refers to distance. -**Fewer** (adjective) refers to countable items. _Ten items or fewer allowed in this checkout -lane._ -**Less** (adjective) refers to amounts or quantities. _There is less water in Lake Washington -than in the Pacific Ocean._ -**TIP:** use **_fewer_** with nouns you can count individually and **_less_** with nouns you cannot +**Fewer** (adjective) refers to countable items. _Ten items or fewer allowed in this checkout_ +_lane._ +**Less** (adjective) refers to amounts or quantities. _There is less water in Lake Washington_ +_than in the Pacific Ocean._ +**TIP:** use **fewer** with nouns you can count individually and **less** with nouns you cannot count individually. -**Foreword** (noun) refers to a short introduction to a book or article. _Mary wrote the -foreword in Dr. Sam Jones’s new book._ -**Forward** (adverb) means to move ahead. _Sam took one step forward as the line -advanced._ +**Foreword** (noun) refers to a short introduction to a book or article. _Mary wrote the_ +_foreword in Dr. Sam Jones’s new book._ +**Forward** (adverb) means to move ahead. _Sam took one step forward as the line_ +_advanced._ -**Good** (adjective) means desirable. _A number of students received a good score on the -test._ +**Good** (adjective) means desirable. _A number of students received a good score on the_ +_test._ **Well** (adverb) means satisfactorily. _He did well on the exam._ (adverb) means healthy. _He was ill and now he is well._ @@ -5127,54 +4912,52 @@ verb a direct object. _Gonzaga University graduated 500 students in May._ **Graduated From** (intransitive verb) Graduated is an intransitive verb and does not need a direct object. _Mary graduated from college_. - **Irregardless** is not a real word. -**Regardless** (adjective) means to have no regard for. _Regardless of her good intentions, -she still arrived late._ +**Regardless** (adjective) means to have no regard for. _Regardless of her good intentions,_ +_she still arrived late._ -**Its** (possessive pronoun) means _it_ has ownership or possession. _The shoe has lost its -laces._ -**It’s** (contraction of the pronoun it and the verb is or has) _It’s our last chance to see the -band before they retire._ +**Its** (possessive pronoun) means _it_ has ownership or possession. _The shoe has lost its_ +_laces._ +**It’s** (contraction of the pronoun it and the verb is or has) _It’s our last chance to see the_ +_band before they retire._ **Later** (adverb) means after a certain time. _He will sign the contract later._ -**Latter** (adjective) refers to the second of two choices. _Between the tea and the coffee, I -choose the latter._ +**Latter** (adjective) refers to the second of two choices. _Between the tea and the coffee, I_ +_choose the latter._ **Lay** (transitive verb) means to place or to set. Lay requires a direct object in order to complete the meaning. _We will lay tiles in the bathroom._ **Lie** (intransitive verb) means to rest or to recline. Lie does not require a direct object, but is often followed by a preposition. _I am going to lie down for a nap._ -**Literally** (adverb) means actually or without exaggeration. _The flight literally took 4 -hours._ Do not use the word _literally_ to exaggerate. If someone says, “I literally died +**Literally** (adverb) means actually or without exaggeration. _The flight literally took 4_ +_hours._ Do not use the word _literally_ to exaggerate. If someone says, “I literally died laughing,” it means they are dead. The word they are looking for is figuratively. -**Figuratively** (adverb) means metaphorically or not in a real sense. _She was figuratively -bursting with excitement._ She is not really exploding; she is just very excited. +**Figuratively** (adverb) means metaphorically or not in a real sense. _She was figuratively_ +_bursting with excitement._ She is not really exploding; she is just very excited. **Lightening** (verb) means to become brighter. _The sunshine is lightening her hair._ -**Lightning** (noun) refers to an electrical flash during a storm. _The lightning bolt struck -the building during the thunderstorm._ +**Lightning** (noun) refers to an electrical flash during a storm. _The lightning bolt struck_ +_the building during the thunderstorm._ **Lose** (verb) means to be without or to suffer defeat. _The dieter wants to lose weight._ -**Loose** (adjective) means free from restriction or not tight. _After dieting for months, his -old clothes were very loose._ +**Loose** (adjective) means free from restriction or not tight. _After dieting for months, his_ +_old clothes were very loose._ -**Nauseous** (adjective) means sickening. _The nauseous aroma of the sock soup turned -Mary’s stomach._ -**Nauseated** (verb) means to feel sick or queasy. _After eating the sock soup, Dave felt -nauseated._ +**Nauseous** (adjective) means sickening. _The nauseous aroma of the sock soup turned_ +_Mary’s stomach._ +**Nauseated** (verb) means to feel sick or queasy. _After eating the sock soup, Dave felt_ +_nauseated._ -**Principal** (noun) refers to the leader. _The principal of the school was in charge of the -teacher’s evaluation._ +**Principal** (noun) refers to the leader. _The principal of the school was in charge of the_ +_teacher’s evaluation._ Principal (adjective) means main. _The principal freeway through Seattle is I-5._ +**Principle** (noun) refers to a rule or a set of beliefs. _The family has good moral_ +_principles._ -**Principle** (noun) refers to a rule or a set of beliefs. _The family has good moral -principles._ - -**Real** (adjective) means actual or genuine. _A real diamond is worth more than a fake -diamond._ +**Real** (adjective) means actual or genuine. _A real diamond is worth more than a fake_ +_diamond._ **Really** (adverb) means actually or truly. _He is really excited to go on vacation._ **Set** (transitive verb) means to place. This is a transitive verb and requires a direct object @@ -5182,8 +4965,8 @@ in order to complete its meaning. _Sarah set the table for dinner._ **Sit** (intransitive verb) means to rest. This is an intransitive verb and is often followed by a prepositional phrase. _Dave likes to sit in a recliner. Please sit down at the table._ -**Should have/Should’ve** (contraction of the verb should and have) _I should have gone -to bed earlier._ +**Should have/Should’ve** (contraction of the verb should and have) _I should have gone_ +_to bed earlier._ **Should of** (always incorrect) It sounds like _should’ve_ when it is spoken, but _should of_ is never correct. @@ -5193,14 +4976,14 @@ never correct. need to mail it in an envelope. **Sure** (adjective) means certain. _She is sure that she wants to go on vacation._ -**Surely** (adverb) means undoubtedly or certainly. _Michael Phelps will surely win the gold -medal._ +**Surely** (adverb) means undoubtedly or certainly. _Michael Phelps will surely win the gold_ +_medal._ **Than** (conjunction) is used to compare things. _I like coffee more than tea._ **Then** (adverb) refers to time. _We grabbed coffee and then we went for a walk._ **There** (adverb) means in that place. _I put my keys over there._ -**They’re** (contraction of the words _they are_ ) _They’re coming to visit soon._ +**They’re** (contraction of the words _they are_) _They’re coming to visit soon._ **Their** (possessive pronoun) shows that _they_ have ownership or possession of something. _Their car needed new tires._ @@ -5208,43 +4991,43 @@ something. _Their car needed new tires._ **Too** (adverb) means in addition to or also. _Dave wants to go too._ **Were** (verb) plural, past tense of the verb _be_. _Fred and Mary were at the concert._ -**We’re** (conjunction of the words _we are_ ) _We’re going to the concert too._ +**We’re** (conjunction of the words _we are_) _We’re going to the concert too._ **Where** (adverb) refers to a location. _Where are we going next?_ - -**Would have/Would’ve** (contraction of the verb would and have) _I would have called -earlier, but I lost your number._ +**Would have/Would’ve** (contraction of the verb would and have) _I would have called_ +_earlier, but I lost your number._ **Would of** (always incorrect) It sounds like _would’ve_ when it is spoken, but _would of_ is never correct. -**Your** (pronoun) means that it belongs to you. Your shows possession. _Your shoes are -by the front door._ -**You’re** (contraction of the pronoun _you_ and the verb _are_ ) _You’re going to be late. You’re -the fastest runner on the team._ +**Your** (pronoun) means that it belongs to you. Your shows possession. _Your shoes are_ +_by the front door._ +**You’re** (contraction of the pronoun _you_ and the verb _are_) _You’re going to be late. You’re_ +_the fastest runner on the team._ ### Grammar Matters #### Bibliography -Bensky, Pat. “ _Why Is Important to Use Correct Grammar?” Trackerpress.com_ N.p., n.d. Web. 08 +Bensky, Pat. “_Why Is Important to Use Correct Grammar?” Trackerpress.com_ N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. Camp, Sue and Marilyn Satterwhite. _College English and Business Communication._ New York: McGraw-Hill Education, 2007. -_The Chicago Manual of Style_. 15th ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003. - -Chun, Janean. "Kyle Wiens Of IFixit Won't Hire The Grammatically Challenged." _The Huffington -Post_. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 03 Oct. 2012. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. +_The Chicago Manual of Style_. 15 +th ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003. +Chun, Janean. "Kyle Wiens Of IFixit Won't Hire The Grammatically Challenged."_The Huffington_ +_Post_. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 03 Oct. 2012. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. Clark, James L. and Lyn R. Clark. _How 13: A Handbook for Office Professionals._ Mason, Ohio: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2014. -Covey, Steven R. _Style Guide for Business and Technical Communication: Tools for Highly -Effective Communication._ Salt Lake City: FranklinCovey Co., 2012. +Covey, Steven R. _Style Guide for Business and Technical Communication: Tools for Highly_ +_Effective Communication._ Salt Lake City: FranklinCovey Co., 2012. Fogarty, Mignon. "Dangling Participles." _Quick and Dirty Tips_. N.p., 25 July 2013. Web. 08 Sept. + 2014. Fogarty, Mignon. "Do You Overuse "Of"?" _Quick and Dirty Tips_. N.p., 16 Jan. 2009. Web. 08 @@ -5257,9 +5040,11 @@ Fogarty, Mignon. _Grammar Girl Presents: The Ultimate Writing Guide for Students St. Martin‟s Press, 2011. Fogarty, Mignon. "Lay Versus Lie." _Quick and Dirty Tips_. N.p., 17 Dec. 2009. Web. 08 Sept. + 2014. Fogarty, Mignon. "Where Are You At?" _Quick and Dirty Tips_. N.p., 23 Feb. 2012. Web. 08 Sept. + 2014. Goldstein, Norm, ed. _The Associated Press Stylebook and Briefing on Media Law._ New York: @@ -5288,13 +5073,12 @@ New York: Penguin Books, 2009. "Punctuation." _Ending a Sentence in a Preposition_. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. - Santucci, Eric. "Wanna Get Hired? Work on Your Grammar." _USA TODAY College_. N.p., 9 Feb. 2012. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. -Schwartz, Barry. "Bing: Poor Grammar & Typos May Result In Lower Search Rankings." _Search -Engine Land_. N.p., 21 Feb. 2014. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. +Schwartz, Barry. "Bing: Poor Grammar & Typos May Result In Lower Search Rankings." _Search_ +_Engine Land_. N.p., 21 Feb. 2014. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. Simmons, Robin. "The Adjective." _The Adjective_. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. @@ -5310,12 +5094,15 @@ Apple Visionary." _The Huffington Post_. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 05 Oct. 2012. We Sept. 2014. Straus, Jane. "Adjectives and Adverbs." _Grammar and Punctuation_. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Sept. + 2014. _The Princess Bride_. Dir. Rob Reiner. Perf. Cary Elwes and Robin Wright. 20th Century Fox, + 1987.. Film. "Transitive and Intransitive Verbs." _YouTube_. The Language Zone, 25 Mar. 2011. Web. 08 Sept. + 2014. Truss, Lynne. _Eats, Shoots, & Leaves: The Zero Tolerance Approach to Punctuation._ New @@ -5326,4 +5113,3 @@ York: Gotham Books, 2003. "Who or Whom Courtesy Academy of Learning College." _YouTube_. YouTube, 12 May 2011. Web. 08 Sept. 2014. - diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/compactLines.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/compactLines.json index 9110153..3f68a63 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/compactLines.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/compactLines.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7792, - "groupedItems": 3595, - "changes": 1947, + "groupedItems": 3597, + "changes": 1949, "schema": [ { "name": "line", @@ -846,13 +846,14 @@ {"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":" We are tired. (plural subject/plural verb) ","line":6,"x":90.0238,"y":315.17,"width":"215.75","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":" The writing assignment was due. (singular subject/singular verb) ","line":7,"x":90.0238,"y":301.37,"width":"351.10","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":" Several writing assignments were due. 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The ","line":14,"x":72.02379999999994,"y":144.38,"width":"466.75","height":"12.00","fontName":["SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"phrase when locating the subject. Common prepositions include of, to, in, from, for, ","line":16,"x":72.0238,"y":116.9,"width":"443.40","height":"12.00","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"with, at, on, except, and between . ","line":17,"x":72.0238,"y":103.10000000000001,"width":"182.15","height":"12.00","fontName":["WAGUYD+Arial,Italic","XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":" The names on the invitation were Fred and Mary. ","line":18,"x":90.02409999999998,"y":75.38400000000001,"width":"274.38","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":" The student listens . (singular subject/singular verb) 3","line":9,"x":90.0238,"y":273.77,"width":"289.30","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"rd person singular verbs ","line":10,"x":392.94988,"y":273.77,"width":"136.86","height":"12.00","fontName":["SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"require an “s . ”","line":11,"x":108.02,"y":259.97,"width":"83.40","height":"12.00","fontName":["BCKRYX+Arial,Bold","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"The key to subject verb agreement is locating the subject of the sentence. This can be ","line":13,"x":72.0238,"y":185.78,"width":"460.00","height":"12.00","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"Prepositional phrases can appear in your sentence and disguise the true subject. The ","line":15,"x":72.02379999999994,"y":144.38,"width":"466.75","height":"12.00","fontName":["SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"phrase when locating the subject. Common prepositions include of, to, in, from, for, ","line":17,"x":72.0238,"y":116.9,"width":"443.40","height":"12.00","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"with, at, on, except, and between . ","line":18,"x":72.0238,"y":103.10000000000001,"width":"182.15","height":"12.00","fontName":["WAGUYD+Arial,Italic","XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":" The names on the invitation were Fred and Mary. ","line":19,"x":90.02409999999998,"y":75.38400000000001,"width":"274.38","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":" The information from the president is listed below. ","line":1,"x":90.02416000000005,"y":708.96,"width":"277.44","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":" Everyone except Fred is attending the party. ","line":2,"x":90.0238,"y":695.14,"width":"248.16","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":" The bill at the restaurant was paid in full. ","line":3,"x":90.0238,"y":681.34,"width":"224.12","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} @@ -1940,9 +1941,10 @@ {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"You’re (contraction of the pronoun you and the verb are ) You’re going to be late. You’re ","line":7,"x":72.0238,"y":600.46,"width":"469.07","height":"12.00","fontName":["BCKRYX+Arial,Bold","XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic","NYNMFO+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Bensky, Pat. “ Why Is Important to Use Correct Grammar? ” Trackerpress.com N.p., n.d. Web. 08","line":11,"x":72.0238,"y":224.33,"width":"467.69","height":"11.04","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","FOKXYD+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic","NYNMFO+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Camp, Sue and Marilyn Satterwhite. College English and Business Communication. New York: ","line":13,"x":72.02399999999994,"y":185.18,"width":"463.89","height":"11.04","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"The Chicago Manual of Style . 15 th ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003. 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","line":16,"x":231.77009999999999,"y":146.0601,"width":"245.41","height":"11.04","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Chun, Janean. \"Kyle Wiens Of IFixit Won't Hire The Grammatically Chall enged.\" The Huffington ","line":17,"x":72.02426,"y":121.58000000000001,"width":"464.72","height":"11.04","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} +{"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Post . TheHuffingtonPost.com, 03 Oct. 2012. Web. 08 Sept. 2014.","line":18,"x":108.02050080000001,"y":107.0601,"width":"318.55","height":"11.04","fontName":["WAGUYD+Arial,Italic","XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Clark, James L. and Lyn R. Clark. How 13: A Handbook for Office Professionals. Mason, Ohio: ","line":1,"x":72.02389999999997,"y":709.8000000000001,"width":"462.69","height":"11.04","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Covey, Steven R. Style Guide for Business and Technical Communication: Tools for Highly","line":3,"x":72.02389999999997,"y":670.6602,"width":"445.70","height":"11.04","fontName":["XYXVPQ+Arial","WAGUYD+Arial,Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Effective Communication. Salt Lake City: FranklinCovey Co., 2012.","line":4,"x":108.02004079999998,"y":656.1403,"width":"325.82","height":"11.04","fontName":["WAGUYD+Arial,Italic","XYXVPQ+Arial"],"dir":["ltr"]} diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectBlocks.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectBlocks.json index 3adcbe4..6272176 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectBlocks.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectBlocks.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7676, - "groupedItems": 3479, + "groupedItems": 3481, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectCodeBlocks.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectCodeBlocks.json index a544d26..45df0c7 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectCodeBlocks.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectCodeBlocks.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7676, - "groupedItems": 3479, - "changes": 4529, + "groupedItems": 3481, + "changes": 4530, "schema": [ { "name": "block" @@ -571,9 +571,10 @@ {"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":" We are tired. (plural subject/plural verb) ","block":485,"line":6,"x":90.0238,"y":315.17,"width":"215.75","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":" The writing assignment was due. (singular subject/singular verb) ","block":485,"line":7,"x":90.0238,"y":301.37,"width":"351.10","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":" Several writing assignments were due. (plural subject/plural verb) ","block":485,"line":8,"x":90.0238,"y":287.57,"width":"356.26","height":"12.00","fontName":["JJVYXB+Symbol","XYXVPQ+Arial","SJUTSY+Arial,Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} -{"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["CODE"],"str":" The student listens . 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"groupedItems": 3479, + "groupedItems": 3481, "changes": 101, "schema": [ { @@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ {"page":41,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Irregular Verbs","dir":"ltr","width":"128.07","height":"18.00","transform":["18.00","0.00","0.00","18.00","72.02","449.95"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":72.0238,"y":449.9502,"line":14} {"page":42,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Lay vs Lie","dir":"ltr","width":"86.94","height":"18.00","transform":["18.00","0.00","0.00","18.00","72.02","520.75"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":72.0238,"y":520.7499,"line":7} {"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"Subject/Verb Agreement","dir":"ltr","width":"278.69","height":"24.00","transform":["24.00","0.00","0.00","24.00","166.58","412.51"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":166.5802600000001,"y":412.5094000000001,"line":2} -{"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Finding the subject","dir":"ltr","width":"164.97","height":"18.00","transform":["18.00","0.00","0.00","18.00","72.02","214.85"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":72.02405,"y":214.85000000000002,"line":11} +{"page":44,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Finding the subject","dir":"ltr","width":"164.97","height":"18.00","transform":["18.00","0.00","0.00","18.00","72.02","214.85"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":72.02405,"y":214.85000000000002,"line":12} {"page":45,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Basic Rules for Subject-Verb Agreement","dir":"ltr","width":"346.03","height":"18.00","transform":["18.00","0.00","0.00","18.00","72.02","99.74"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":72.0239,"y":99.74389999999997,"line":34} {"page":47,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H4"],"str":"Challenges with Subject/Verb Agreement","dir":"ltr","width":"350.93","height":"18.00","transform":["18.00","0.00","0.00","18.00","72.02","218.21"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":72.0239,"y":218.20999999999998,"line":24} {"page":50,"change":"ContentChange","types":["H2"],"str":"Adjectives and Adverbs ","dir":"ltr","width":"278.88","height":"24.00","transform":["24.00","0.00","0.00","24.00","169.94","442.39"],"fontName":"SJUTSY+Arial,Bold","x":169.94010000000003,"y":442.39009999999996,"line":15} diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectLinks.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectLinks.json index 5819256..b39d3e7 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectLinks.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectLinks.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7676, - "groupedItems": 3479, + "groupedItems": 3481, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListItems.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListItems.json index 722f2be..acf399d 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListItems.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListItems.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7676, - "groupedItems": 3479, + "groupedItems": 3481, "changes": 184, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListLevels.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListLevels.json index 875ad02..d1a0be2 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListLevels.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectListLevels.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7676, - "groupedItems": 3479, + "groupedItems": 3481, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectTOC.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectTOC.json index a42ede0..d91e275 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectTOC.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/detectTOC.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7676, - "groupedItems": 3479, + "groupedItems": 3481, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/removeRepetitiveItems.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/removeRepetitiveItems.json index ce3a005..403744c 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/removeRepetitiveItems.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/removeRepetitiveItems.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7792, - "groupedItems": 3595, + "groupedItems": 3597, "changes": 116, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Grammar-Matters/sortbyX.json b/examples/Grammar-Matters/sortbyX.json index 6413e7b..83415da 100644 --- a/examples/Grammar-Matters/sortbyX.json +++ b/examples/Grammar-Matters/sortbyX.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "pages": 116, "items": 7792, - "groupedItems": 3595, + "groupedItems": 3597, "changes": 0, "schema": [ { diff --git a/examples/Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.md b/examples/Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.md index bc65bba..5a442ec 100644 --- a/examples/Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.md +++ b/examples/Life-Of-God-In-Soul-Of-Man.md @@ -1,3520 +1,5561 @@ +# (l^,^^^^i^^^ +# OooulO^I ^ 4le.^A\-^ +## LIFE OF GOD -(l^,^^^^i^^ - -# ^ - - - - -## OooulO^I^4le.^A\-^ - -``` -T -TlIK -``` -LIFE OF GOD - -SOUL OF MAN +##### SOUL OF MAN o -``` BOSTON: + +``` NICHOLS AND NoC|TE>3. -iS6S. ''*"^" '^' ``` ``` -J >.'^5 +iS6S. +``` +``` +' +``` +``` +'*"^" '^' +``` +``` +J >. '[^5] +``` +``` +THE NEW YORK +``` ``` - -## THENEWYORK - PUBLIC LIBRARY^ - -(^793478) A -ASTOR,LENOXAND -TlLDtNFOUNDATIONS! -H^1935 L -CAMBRIDGEt -fRESSOFJOHNWILSONANDSON. -IrCc<< - +``` +``` +793478 A +``` +``` +ASTOR, LENOX AND +``` +``` +TlLDtN FOUNDATIONS! +``` +``` +H[^1935] L +``` +``` +CAMBRIDGE t +``` +``` +fRESS OF JOHN WILSON AND SON. +``` +I r C c< < PREFACE. -nr^HERE arebookswhich nevergrowold: - -## andthispreciousHttlevolume,byHenry - +``` +nr^HERE are books which never grow old : +``` +``` +and this precious Httle volume, by Henry +``` ``` ScouGAL, is to be numbered among them. +``` +``` In it is an eternal freshness and beauty, its +``` +``` bloom actually brightening wdth advancing +``` +``` time. These words, for two centuries, have -beenbreadoflife to thousands. They have, -through that longperiod,guided, comforted, -andinspired; from thatfact,theypossess ad- -ditionalinterest,fortheyhavestoodtheseverest -test,andbeenfoundadequatetomeetthedeep- -estAvants of humannature in its mosttrying- +``` +``` +been bread of life to thousands. They have, +``` +``` +through that long period, guided, comforted, +``` +``` +and inspired ; from that fact, they possess ad- +``` +``` +ditional interest, for they have stood the severest +``` +``` +test, and been found adequate to meet the deep- +``` +``` +est Avants of human nature in its most trying- +``` +``` needs. This "Life of God in the Soul of ``` -## Man"hassomethino-ofthatdivine lifewithin +``` +Man " has somethino- of that divine life within +``` +.itself wliich can impart of its own fulness to -.itselfwliich can impart of itsown fulnessto -everysoul readytoreceive. Theverybreath +``` +every soul ready to receive. The very breath +``` +of Jehovah may be felt through it. It kindles +in the soul a sympathetic power, and lifts it -iv Preface. +into connection with higher realms. With its -## ofJehovahmaybefeltthroughit. Itkindles +holy fervor there is blended a natural calm- + +ness. Health and healing are in its influence. + +Practical throughout, there is also a heavenlv -in the soul a sympathetic power, andlifts it -intoconnectionwithhigher realms. With its -holy fervor there is blended a naturalcalm- -ness. Healthandhealingareinitsinfluence. -Practicalthroughout,thereis also a heavenlv spirituality. Rising above all narrow limita- -## tions,thedevoutofeverynamemayholditin +tions, the devout of every name may hold it in -reverence,andcherish itscounselswithgrati- +reverence, and cherish its counsels with grati- -## tudeandlove. To the young, itwill prove, +tude and love. To the young, it will prove, -armorofstrength; totheaged,perpetualreno- -vation; while Christians of all communions -will find withinit a foretaste ofimmortality. -The life towhich itwould lead is a heaven -uponearth,andthatisbutthecommencement +``` +armor of strength ; to the aged, perpetual reno- +``` +vation ; while Christians of all communions -## ofaheaven withoutend. Toallwhohold in +will find within it a foretaste of immortality. + +The life to which it would lead is a heaven + +upon earth, and that is but the commencement + +of a heaven without end. To all who hold in + +``` +honor Christ and his gospel, to those who would +``` +love God and man, to each one who would so -honorChristandhisgospel,tothosewhowould -love God andman,toeachonewhowould so live in time as to make it the joyous gate- -w^ay to a glorious eternity, thislittlevolume -shouldbeheartilywelcome;andwedoubtnot -suchwelcomeitwillwidelyreceive. -Henry Scougalwas the son ofthe Bishop +w^ay to a glorious eternity, this little volume + +should be heartily welcome ; and we doubt not ``` -Preface. V +such welcome it will widely receive. +``` +``` +Henry Scougal was the son of the Bishop +``` +``` +of Aberdeen, in Scotland. Born, June, 1650, +``` +``` +at the age of fifteen he entered the Universit}', +``` ``` -of Aberdeen,inScotland. Born,June, 1650, -attheageoffifteenheenteredtheUniversit}', and at the early ao-e of twenty he became +``` +``` professor of philosophy. Haying most ac- -ceptabl}^fulfilled this importantoffice for four +``` +``` +ceptabl}^ fulfilled this important office for four +``` 3^ears, he prepared himself for the ministry, -andwas established in a smallyillage about -twentymilesfromAberdeen. Fromthisplace, -howeyer, he was soon urged to enterupon + +``` +and was established in a small yillage about +``` +twenty miles from Aberdeen. From this place, + +``` +howeyer, he was soon urged to enter upon +``` the Professorship of Diyinity in King's Col- -leo-e,whichduties he discharij^edwith honor: -but,attheearh'aixeoftwenty-seyen,hishealth -gayeway,andon the 13th ofJune, 1678, he -closed his briefbutuseful career. One year + +leo-e, which duties he discharij^ed with honor : + +but, at the earh' aixe of twenty-seyen, his health + +gaye way, and on the 13th of June, 1678, he + +closed his brief but useful career. One year + before his departure, this inyaluable treatise + was giyen to the world. It was modestly -written, only for priyate use; but Bishop + +written, only for priyate use ; but Bishop + Burnet, seeing it, appreciated it so highly + that he hastened to giye it to the world + with the most generous and earnest com- -mendation. "Itwaswritten,"he says,"by a -piousandlearnedcountrymanofmine,forthe +mendation. "It was written," he says, "by a -vi Preface. +pious and learned countryman of mine, for the + +private use of a noble friend of the author's, -privateuse of a noble friend ofthe author's, without the least design of making it more -public. Others,seeing it, were much taken, -bothwith theexcellent purposes itcontained, -andthegreatclearnessandpleasantnessofthe -style, the naturalmethodand shortness ofit, -and desired itmight be made a more public + +public. Others, seeing it, were much taken, + +both with the excellent purposes it contained, + +and the great clearness and pleasantness of the + +style, the natural method and shortness of it, + +and desired it might be made a more public + good." -Some timeafter,another editionofthis in- + +``` +Some time after, another edition of this in- +``` comparable treatise was published, with a + preface by the Principal of the College of + Edinburgh, in which he says, "Since I had + the happiness of becoming acquainted with -thisbook,Ihaveheartilyblessed God forthe -benefit I have received by the perusal ofit, -and have earnestlywished it had a place in -everyfamily; wascarefullyperused byevery- -onewhocanread; andthatthe sentiments of + +this book, I have heartily blessed God for the + +benefit I have received by the perusal of it, + +and have earnestly wished it had a place in + +every family ; was carefully perused by every- + +one who can read ; and that the sentiments of + pure and undefiled religion it contains, were + impressed upon every heart.'' -## Amongotherspecial excellencies,the same - -writerdwellsupon'"theprudenceandcharity. - - ``` -Preface. vii +Among other special excellencies, the same ``` +writer dwells upon '"the prudence and charity. + the author discovers, in avoidino- matters ot -doubttiildisputation,aboutwhichthebestand -wisestmendiffer,whileheis treating ofmat- -ters of the greatest importance, aboutwhich -all good and wisemen must agree.''—"Had -we more," he adds, ''of that true Christian -spiritso beautifullydelineated and sowarmly -recommendedinthisbook,I cannotbutthink -thatthetiercenessofourcontentions and ani- -mosities about things of lessermoment must -considerablyabate." -The present editionofthis volume is pub- -lished by therequestof one who, for nearly -eighty years, hasfound in it a continued re- -source andpleasure. Now atthe advanced -age of ninety, with a keen appreciation of -present enjoyments and privileges, he looks -tbrward with growing earnestness and happv -anticipation to the sublimerealitiesofthe fu- -## ture. Much that he has enjoyed, through +doubttiil disputation, about which the best and -his pleasant pilgrimage, aswellas the heav- -enlvVision which kindles before the eve of +wisest men differ, while he is treating of mat- +ters of the greatest importance, about which + +all good and wise men must agree.''—" Had + +we more," he adds, +'' of that true Christian + +spirit so beautifully delineated and so warmly + +recommended in this book, I cannot but think + +that the tierceness of our contentions and ani- + +mosities about things of lesser moment must + +considerably abate." ``` -\-iii Preface. +The present edition of this volume is pub- +``` +lished by the request of one who, for nearly + +eighty years, has found in it a continued re- + +source and pleasure. Now at the advanced + +age of ninety, with a keen appreciation of + +present enjoyments and privileges, he looks + +tbrward with growing earnestness and happv + +anticipation to the sublime realities of the fu- + +ture. Much that he has enjoyed, through + +his pleasant pilgrimage, as well as the heav- + +enlv Vision which kindles before the eve of + ``` Faith, is associated with this little volume, -familiartohimfrom his 3^outh. Having de- -rived so muchhappiness and advantage from +``` +familiar to him from his 3^outh. Having de- + +rived so much happiness and advantage from + it himself, he desires to place it within the -reachofothers,confidentthat,withthe bless- -ing ofProvidence, it can only beproductive + +reach of others, confident that, with the bless- + +ing of Providence, it can only be productive + of increasino- crood. -R.C.W. - -Boston.December,1S67. - - -## CONTENTS. - -- TheOccasionofthisDiscourse -- MistakesaboutReligion -- WhatReligionis -- ThePermanencyandStabilityofReligion -- ReligionaDivinePrinciple TheP'reedomandUnconstrainednessofReligion S -- WhattheNaturalLifeis -- ThedifferentTendenciesoftheNaturalLife.... -- WhereintheDivineLifedothconsist - - Words Religion better understood by Actions than by -- DivineLoveexemplifiedinourSaviour -- OurSaviour'sConstantDevotion -- OurSaviour'sCharitytoMen -- OurSaviour'sPurity -- OurSaviour'sHumility -- APrayer -- TheExcellencyandAdvantageofReligion -- TheExcellencyofDivineLove -- TheAdvantagesofDivineLove - ``` -Contents. +R. C. W. ``` -TheWorthoftheObject 45 -TheCertaintytobeBelovedAgain 46 -ThePresenceoftheBelovedPerson 48 -TheDivine Love makes us partake ofan Infinite -Happiness 49 -HethatlovethGod finds Sweetness in everyDis- -pensation 51 -TheDutiesofReligionareDelightfultoHim ... 52 -TheExcellencyofCharity 54 -ThePleasurethatattendsCharity 56 -TheExcellencyofPurity 58 -TheDelightaffordedbyPurity 59 -TheExcellencyofHumility 60 -ThePleasureandSweetnessofanHumbleTemper. 62 -APrayer 65 -TheDespondentThoughtsofsomeNewlyAwakened -toaRightSenseofThings 66 -TheUnreasonablenessoftheseFears 69 -Wemustdowhatwecan,anddependonthe Divine -Assistance 74 -WemustshunallMannerofSin 78 -WemustknowwhatThingsareSinful So -WemustresisttheTemptationsofSin.byconsider- -ingtheEvilstheywilldrawonus 82 -WemustkeepaConstantWatchoverOurselves.. 87 -WemustoftenexamineourActions 89 -ItisfittorestrainOurselvesinManyLawfulThings. 91 -\\'emuststrivetoputOurselvesoutofLovewiththe -World 93 +Boston. December, 1S67. +###### THE LIFE OF GOD ``` -Contents. xi +SOUL OF ^lAX. +``` ``` -WemustdothoseOutwardActionsthatare Com- -manded 98 -Wemustendeavor toformInternalActsofDevo- -tion,Charity,&c. 100 -ConsiderationaGreatInstrumentofReligion... loi -TobegetDivineLove,we mustconsidertheExcel- -lencyoftheDivineNature 104 -WeshouldmeditateonGod'sGoodnessandLove. 108 -TobegetCharity,we mustrememberthatallMen -arenearlyrelateduntoGod 113 -ThattheycarryGod'sImageuponthem 114 -TobegetPurity,weshouldconsidertheDignityof -ourNature 116 -WeshouldmeditateoftenontheJoysofHeaven. 117 -HumilityarisesfromtheConsiderationofourFail- -ings 118 -ThoughtsofGodgiveus theLowestThoughtsof -Ourselves 120 -Prayer, another Instrument of Religion, and the -AdvantagesofMentalPrayer^121 -ReligionistobeAdvancedbythesameMeansby -whichitisBegun; andtheUseoftheHoly -Sacrainenttowardsit 124 - -## APrayer^126 - - - THE LIFE OF GOD - -SOUL OF^lAX. - - - -THE LIFE OF GOD - +``` +``` SOUL OF MAN. +``` +IV /TY Dear Friend, —This designation doth -IV/TYDearFriend,—Thisdesignationdoth +``` give vou a title to all the endeavors -wherebyIcanserve 3'ourinterests; and your -pious inclinations doso happilyconspirev/ith -my duty,thatIshallnot need to step outof -my road to gratify you; but I may atonce -performanofficeoffriendship, and discharge +``` +whereby I can serve 3'our interests ; and your -## anexerciseofmyfunction,sincetheadvancing +pious inclinations do so happily conspire v/ith -ofvirtueandholiness(whichIhopeyoumake -yourgreateststudy)isthepeculiarbusinessof +my duty, that I shall not need to step out of -## myemployment. This,therefore,isthe most +my road to gratify you ; but I may at once -## proper instancewherein I canvent myaffec- +perform an office of friendship, and discharge -## tion, and express mygratitude towards you; +an exercise of my function, since the advancing -andIshallnot anylonger delaythe perform- -anceofthepromiseImadeyoutothispurpose. -ForthoughIknowyouareprovidedwithbet- -ter helps of thisnature than any I can offer +of virtue and holiness (which I hope you make +your greatest study) is the peculiar business of -The Life ofGod +my employment. This, therefore, is the most -you; norare 3^ouliketomeetwith anything +proper instance wherein I can vent my affec- -## here which you knew not before; yet I am +tion, and express my gratitude towards you ; -## hopeful,thatwhatcomethfromonewhomyou +and I shall not any longer delay the perform- -arepleasedtohonorw^ith yourfriendship, and -which is more particularlydesignedfor your -use,willbekindlyacceptedbyyou: andGod's +ance of the promise I made you to this purpose. -## providenceperhapsma}^sodirectmythoughts, +For though I know you are provided with bet- -## that something orother may proveuseful to +ter helps of this nature than any I can offer -you. Nor shall I doubtyour pardon, if, for +``` +The Life of God +``` +you ; nor are 3^ou like to meet with any thing -## mouldingmydiscourseinto the betterframe, +here which you knew not before ; yet I am + +hopeful, that what cometh from one whom you + +are pleased to honor w^ith your friendship, and + +which is more particularly designed for your + +use, will be kindly accepted by you : and God's + +providence perhaps ma}^ so direct my thoughts, + +that something or other may prove useful to + +you. Nor shall I doubt your pardon, if, for + +moulding my discourse into the better frame, I lay a low foundation, beginning with the -natureandpropertiesofreligion,andallalong -## givesuchw^avtomvthoughtsinthe prosecu- +nature and properties of religion, and all along -## tion ofthe subject, as may bring me to say +give such w^av to mv thoughts in the prosecu- -manythingswhichwerenotnecessary, did I +tion of the subject, as may bring me to say -## onlyconsidertowhomIamwriting. +many things which were not necessary, did I -## MistakesaboutReligion +only consider to whom I am writing. +## MISTAKES ABOUT RELIGION. + +``` T CANNOT speak of religion, but I must -lament,that,amongsomanypretenders to -it, so fewunderstand w^iat it means: some -placing itin the understanding, in orthodox -notionsandopinions; andalltheaccountthey +``` +``` +lament, that, among so many pretenders to +``` +it, so few understand w^iat it means : some +``` +placing it in the understanding, in orthodox +``` +``` +notions and opinions ; and all the account they +``` +``` +can give of their religion is, that they are of +``` +this or the other persuasion, and have joined -/;/ the SoulofMan. +themselves to one of those many sects where- + +``` +into Christendom is most unhappily divided. +``` +``` +Others place it in the outward man, in a con- +``` +stant course of external duties, and a model of + +performances : if they live peaceably with their + +neighbors, keep a temperate diet, observe the + +returns of worship, frequenting the church and + +their closet, and sometimes extend their hands + +to the relief of the poor, they think they have + +sufficiently acquitted themselves. Others again + +put all religion in the affections, in rapturous + +heats and ecstatic devotion ; and all they aim + +at, is, to pray with passion, and think of heaven + +with pleasure, and to be affected with those + +kind and melting expressions wherewith they + +court their Saviour, till thev persuade them- + +selves that they are mightily in love w^ith him ; + +and from thence assume a great confidence of -can give oftheirreligion is,that theyareof -thisorthe other persuasion, and havejoined -themselvestooneofthose manysectswhere- -into Christendom is most unhappilydivided. -Others placeitintheoutwardman,in a con- -stantcourseof externalduties,andamodelof -performances: iftheylivepeaceablywiththeir -neighbors,keep atemperate diet,observe the -returnsofworship,frequentingthechurchand -theircloset,andsometimesextendtheirhands -to thereliefofthepoor,theythink theyhave -sufficientlyacquittedthemselves. Othersagain -put all religionin the affections,in rapturous -heatsandecstaticdevotion; and all theyaim -at,is,topraywithpassion,andthinkofheaven -with pleasure, andto be affected with those -kind andmelting expressionswherewith they -court their Saviour, till thevpersuade them- -selvesthattheyaremightilyinlovew^ithhim; -andfromthence assumeagreatconfidence of their salvation, w4iich they esteem the chief -ofChristian graces. Thus arethose things -which have anyresemblance ofpiety,and at -thebestarebutmeans ofobtaining it,orpar- -ticular exercisesofit,frequentlymistaken for +of Christian graces. Thus are those things -TheLife ofGod +which have any resemblance of piety, and at + +the best are but means of obtaining it, or par- + +ticular exercises of it, frequently mistaken for + +the whole of religion ; nay, sometimes wick- + +edness and vice pretend to that name. I speak + +not now of those gross impieties wherewith the -``` -thewhole ofreligion; nay, sometimes wick- -ednessandvicepretendtothatname. Ispeak -notnowofthosegrossimpietieswherewiththe heathens were wont to worship their gods -``` + ``` : ``` -therearebut too manyChristianswhowould -consecratetheirvices,andhallowtheircorrupt -affections; whose rugged humor, and sullen -pride,mustpassforChristianseverity; whose -fiercewrath,andbitterrac^eacrainsttheir ene- -mies, mustbe called holy zeal; whose petu- +there are but too many Christians who would + +consecrate their vices, and hallow their corrupt + +affections ; whose rugged humor, and sullen + +pride, must pass for Christian severity; whose + +fierce wrath, and bitter rac^e acrainst their ene- + +mies, must be called holy zeal ; whose petu- + lancy towards their superiors, or rebellion -against theirgovernors,must have the name -ofChristian couracre and resolution. -## WhatReligionis +against their governors, must have the name + +of Christian couracre and resolution. + +## WHAT RELIGION IS. ``` -TDUTcertainlyreligionisquiteanotherthing; -andtheywhoareacquaintedwith it,will +TDUT certainly religion is quite another thing ; +``` +``` +and they who are acquainted with it, will +``` entertain far different thoughts, and disdain -all those shadows and false imitationsof it. -They knowby experience, thattrue religion -isanunionofthesoulwithGod,a real parti- -cipation ofthedivine nature, the veryimage -ofGoddrawnuponthesoul; or,intheApos- -``` - -in the SoulofMan, - -tie's phrase, it is Christformed zuithin tis. -Briefly,Iknownothowthenatureofreligion -canbemorefullyexpressed,thanbycallingit - -## adivinelife. Andunder thesetermsI shall ``` -discourseofit; showing first howit iscalled -alife,andthenhowitistermeddivine. +all those shadows and false imitations of it. ``` -## ThePermanencyandStabilityofReligion +They know by experience, that true religion -TCHOOSEtoexpressitbythenameoilife +is an union of the soul with God, a real parti- ``` -; +cipation of the divine nature, the very image ``` ``` -first,becauseofitspermanencyandstabil- -ity. Religionisnotasuddenstart,orpassion -ofthemind; notthough itshouldrise tothe -height ofa rapture and seemto transporta +of God drawn upon the soul ; or, in the Apos- ``` -## man to extraordinary performances. There +tie's phrase, it is Christ formed zuithin tis. -``` -arefewbut have convictions ofthe necessity -ofdoing something forthe salvation oftheir -``` -## souls, which may push them forward some +Briefly, I know not how the nature of religion -``` -stepswithagreatdealofseeminghaste. But -anontheyflagandgive over: thevwere in a -hotmood, but nowtheyare cooled: theydid -shoot forth fresh and high, but are quickly -withered, because they had no root in them- -``` +can be more fully expressed, than by calling it -TheLife ofGcd +a divine life. And under these terms I shall -## selves. These sudden fits may be compared +discourse of it ; showing first how it is called -totheviolentandconvulsivemotionsofbodies -newly beheaded, caused bythe agitations of -the animal spirits, afterthesoulis departed: -which,howeverviolentandimpetuous, canbe -ofno longcontinuance: whereas the motions -of holy souls are constant and regular, pro- -ceedingfromapermanentandlivelyprinciple. -Itistrue,thisdivinelifecontinuethnotalways -inthesamestrengthandvigor,butmanytimes -sufferssaddecays; and holymenfindgreater -difficultyinresistingtemptations,andlessalac- -rityin the performanceoftheirduties: yetit -is notquite extinguished, nor are they aban- -donedtothe powerofthosecorruptaffections -whichswayandoverruletherestoftheworld. +a life, and then how it is termed divine. -## THE FREEDOM ANDUNXONSTRAINEDXESS OF +## THE PERMANENCY AND STABILITY OF ``` RELIGION. ``` -A GAIN, religion may be defined by the -name of life^ because itis aninward, -free,andself-movingprinciple;andthosew^ho -havemadeprogressinit,arenotactuatedonly - - -in the SoidofMan, - -byexternal motives, driven merelybythreat- -enings,norbribedbypromises,norconstrained -by laws; but are powerfullyinclined to that -which is good,anddelightintheperformance - -## ofit. The lovewhich a pious manbears to - -Godandgoodness,isnotsomuchbyvirtueof -a command enjoining him so to do, asby a -newnatureinstructingandpromptinghimtoit +## T CHOOSE to express it by the name oi life ``` ; ``` -nor dothhe payhis devotionsas an unavoid- -abletribute,onlytoappeasethedivinejustice, -orquiet his clamorous conscience; but those -religious exercises are the properemanations +``` +first, because of its permanency and stabil- +``` +``` +ity. Religion is not a sudden start, or passion +``` +of the mind ; not though it should rise to the + +``` +height of a rapture and seem to transport a +``` +``` +man to extraordinary performances. There +``` +``` +are few but have convictions of the necessity +``` +``` +of doing something for the salvation of their +``` +``` +souls, which may push them forward some +``` +``` +steps with a great deal of seeming haste. But +``` +``` +anon they flag and give over : thev were in a +``` +``` +hot mood, but now they are cooled : they did +``` +``` +shoot forth fresh and high, but are quickly +``` +``` +withered, because they had no root in them- +``` +selves. These sudden fits may be compared + +to the violent and convulsive motions of bodies + +newly beheaded, caused by the agitations of + +the animal spirits, after the soul is departed : + +which, however violent and impetuous, can be + +of no long continuance : whereas the motions + +of holy souls are constant and regular, pro- + +ceeding from a permanent and lively principle. + +It is true, this divine life continueth not always + +in the same strength and vigor, but many times + +suffers sad decays ; and holy men find greater + +difficulty in resisting temptations, and less alac- + +rity in the performance of their duties : yet it + +is not quite extinguished, nor are they aban- + +doned to the power of those corrupt affections + +which sway and overrule the rest of the world. + +THE FREEDOM AND UNXONSTRAINEDXESS OF + +``` +RELIGION. +``` +``` +A GAIN, religion may be defined by the +``` +``` +name of life^ because it is an inward, +``` +free, and self-moving principle ; and those w^ho + +have made progress in it, are not actuated only + +``` +in the Soid of Man, +``` +by external motives, driven merely by threat- + +enings, nor bribed by promises, nor constrained + +by laws ; but are powerfully inclined to that + +which is good, and delight in the performance + +of it. The love which a pious man bears to + +God and goodness, is not so much by virtue of + +``` +a command enjoining him so to do, as by a +``` +new nature instructing and prompting him to it + +``` +; +``` +nor doth he pay his devotions as an unavoid- + +``` +able tribute, only to appease the divine justice, +``` +``` +or quiet his clamorous conscience ; but those +``` +``` +religious exercises are the proper emanations +``` of the divine lite, the natural employments -## of the new^-born soul. He prays, and gives +of the new^-born soul. He prays, and gives thanks, and repents, not only because these -things are commanded,but ratherbecausehe + +things are commanded, but rather because he + +``` is sensible of his w^ants, and of the divine -goodness,andofthefollyandmiseryofasin- +``` +goodness, and of the folly and misery of a sin- + ful life. His charity is not Ibrced, nor his -almsextorted from him: his love makeshim -willingtogive; andthoughtherewerenoout• -wardobligation,hisheartzvotilddeviseliberal + +``` +alms extorted from him : his love makes him +``` +willing to give ; and though there were no out + +• + +ward obligation, his heart zvotild devise liberal + thing's. Injustice and intemperance, and all -othervices, are ascontrarytohis temperand -constitution, asthe basest actions areto the +other vices, are as contrary to his temper and -lO TheLife ofGod +constitution, as the basest actions are to the -mostgenerousspirit,andimpudenceandscur- -rility to those who are naturally modest: so +most generous spirit, and impudence and scur- -## thatImaywell sa}^withSt.John, Whosoever +rility to those who are naturally modest : so -is born ofGod^doth notconiniit sin;forhis -seedremaineth in hini,andhecannotsin,be- -causehe isborn ofGod. Though holy and -religiouspersonsdomucheyethelawofGod, -and have a great regarduntoit;yetitisnot -somuchthesanctionofthelaw,asitsreason- -ableness, andpurity, and goodness,which do -prevail with them: they account it excellent -and desirable in itself,andthatinkeepingof -itthere isgreat reward; andthatdivinelove -wherewith theyareactuated,makesthem be- -comealawuntothemselves. +that I may well sa}^ with St. John, Whosoever + +is born of God^ doth not coniniit sin; for his + +seed remaineth in hini, and he cannot sin, be- + +cause he is born of God. Though holy and + +religious persons do much eye the law of God, + +and have a great regard unto it ; yet it is not + +so much the sanction of the law, as its reason- + +ableness, and purity, and goodness, which do + +prevail with them : they account it excellent + +and desirable in itself, and that in keeping of + +it there is great reward ; and that divine love + +wherewith they are actuated, makes them be- + +come a law unto themselves. ``` -Qiiislegemdetamantibus? -Majorestamorlexipsesibi. -Whoshallprescribealawtothosethatlove? -Love'samorepowerfullawwhichdoththemmove. -In aword,whatourblessed Savioursaidof -himself,isin some measure applicable to his -followers,thatitistheirmeatanddrinkto do -theirFather'szvill: and asthe naturalappe- +Qiiis legem det amantibus? +``` +``` +Major est amor lex ipse sibi. +``` +``` +Who shall prescribe a law to those that love? +``` +``` +Love's a more powerful law which doth them move. +``` +``` +In a word, what our blessed Saviour said of +``` +``` +himself, is in some measure applicable to his +``` +``` +followers, that it is their meat and drink to do +``` +``` +their Father's zvill: and as the natural appe- +``` +``` tite is carried out toward food, though we -shouldnotreflectonthenecessityofit for the ``` - -/;/ the SoulofMan. ii - ``` -preservation ofour lives; so are theycarried -withanaturalandunforcedpropensiontoward -thatwhich is good and commendable. It is -true,externalmotivesaremanytimes ofgreat -usetoexciteandstirupthisinward principle, -especially in its infancy andweakness, when +should not reflect on the necessity of it for the +``` +``` +preservation of our lives ; so are they carried +``` +``` +with a natural and unforced propension toward +``` +``` +that which is good and commendable. It is +``` +``` +true, external motives are many times of great +``` +``` +use to excite and stir up this inward principle, +``` +``` +especially in its infancy and weakness, when +``` +``` +it is often so languid that the man himself can +``` ``` -## itisoftensolanguidthattheman himselfcan - scarce discern it, hardl}^ being able to move -one step forward, butwhen he is pushed by -hishopes,orhis fears; bythepressure ofan -affliction,orthesenseofamercy; bythe au- -thorityofthelaw,orthepersuasionofothers. +``` +``` +one step forward, but when he is pushed by +``` +``` +his hopes, or his fears ; by the pressure of an +``` +``` +affliction, or the sense of a mercy ; by the au- +``` +``` +thority of the law, or the persuasion of others. +``` +``` Now, if such a person be conscientious and -uniforminhisobedience,andearnestlygroan- -ingunderthesenseofhis dulness,and is de- +``` +uniform in his obedience, and earnestly groan- + +ing under the sense of his dulness, and is de- + +``` sirous to perform his duties with more spirit -and vigor: these are the firstmotions of the +``` +``` +and vigor : these are the first motions of the +``` +``` divine life, which, though it be faint and -weak, will surely be cherished bythe influ- -ences ofheaven, and growunto greater ma- -turity. Buthewho is utterlydestitute ofthis -inwardprinciple,and doth notaspire unto it, -but contents himselfwith those performances +``` +weak, will surely be cherished by the influ- + +ences of heaven, and grow unto greater ma- + +turity. But he who is utterly destitute of this + +inward principle, and doth not aspire unto it, + +but contents himself with those performances + whereunto he is prompted b}^ education or -custom,bythe fear of hell,orcarnal notions - -12 TheLife ofGod +custom, by the fear of hell, or carnal notions ``` -ofheaven, can no more be accounted a reli- -gious person, than a puppetcan be called a +of heaven, can no more be accounted a reli- +``` +``` +gious person, than a puppet can be called a +``` +``` man. This forced and artificial religion is -commonlyheavyand languid,likethemotion -of a weight forced upward: it is cold and -spiritless, like the uneasy compliance of a -wife married against herwill, who carries it ``` -## dutifully toward the husbandwhom she doth +``` +commonly heavy and languid, like the motion +``` +of a weight forced upward : it is cold and + +spiritless, like the uneasy compliance of a + +wife married against her will, who carries it + +dutifully toward the husband whom she doth + +not love, out of some sense of virtue or honor. -notlove,outofsomesenseofvirtueorhonor. Hence also this religion is scant and nig- + gardly, especially in those duties which do -greatestviolenceto men's carnalinclinations; -andthoseslavishspiritswillbe sure to do no -more than is absolutelyrequired: itis a law -thatcompelsthem,andtheywillbeloathtogo -beyondwhat it stintsthem to; nay,theywill -## ever be putting such glosses on it, as may +greatest violence to men's carnal inclinations ; + +and those slavish spirits will be sure to do no + +more than is absolutely required : it is a law + +that compels them, and they will be loath to go + +beyond what it stints them to; nay, they will + +ever be putting such glosses on it, as may + +leave themselves the greatest liberty ; whereas + +the spirit of true religion is frank and liberal, + +far from such peevish and narrow reckoning ; + +and he who hath given himself entirely unto + +God, will never think he doth too much for -leavethemselvesthegreatestliberty; whereas -the spiritoftruereligion isfrank andliberal, -far from such peevishandnarrowreckoning; -and he who hath given himselfentirely unto -God, will neverthink he doth too much for him. +``` +RELIGION A DIVINE PRINCIPLE. +``` +## T3 Y this time I hope it doth appear, that ``` -/;/ the Soulofj\Ian. 13 -``` -## RELIGION A DIVINE PRINCIPLE. - -``` -T3Y this time I hope it doth appear, that rehgion is, with a great deal of reason, -termed a lifc^ or vital principle; and that it -isver}'necessarytodistinguishbetweenit,and +``` +``` +termed a lifc^ or vital principle ; and that it +``` +``` +is ver}' necessary to distinguish between it, and +``` +``` that obedience which is constrained and de- +``` +``` pends on external causes. I come next to ``` -## give an accountwhyI defineditbythename - -## ofdivinelife. Andso it maybe called, not - +``` +give an account why I defined it by the name +``` +``` +of divine life. And so it may be called, not +``` +``` only in regard to its fountain and original, -havingGodforits author, and beingwrought -inthesouls ofmenbythe powerofhisHoly -Spirit; but also in regard of its nature, reli- -gionbeingaresemblanceofthedivineperfec- -tions, the image ofthe Almighty shining in +``` +``` +having God for its author, and being wrought +``` +in the souls of men by the power of his Holy -## thesoulofman: nay,itisarealparticipation +``` +Spirit ; but also in regard of its nature, reli- +``` +gion being a resemblance of the divine perfec- -of his nature; it is a beam of the eternal -light, a drop ofthat infinite ocean ofgood- +tions, the image of the Almighty shining in -## ness; and theyw^ho areenduedwith it, may +the soul of man : nay, it is a real participation -be said tohave (j^oddzvelliug in their souls -andChristformedzuithinthem. +of his nature ; it is a beam of the eternal +light, a drop of that infinite ocean of good- -TheLife ofGod +ness ; and they w^ho are endued with it, may -## WhattheNaturalLifeis +be said to have (j^od dzvelliug in their souls + +and Christ formed zuithin them. + +## WHAT THE NATURAL LIFE IS. T3EFORE I descend to a more particular -consideration ofthat divine life wherein -truereligiondothconsist,itwillbefittospeak -a little of that natural or animal lifewhich + +``` +consideration of that divine life wherein +``` +true religion doth consist, it will be fit to speak + +a little of that natural or animal life which + prevails in those who are strangers to the -## other. AndbythisIunderstandnothingelse, +other. And by this I understand nothing else, but our inclination and propension toward -thosethingswhich are pleasing and accepta- -ble to nature; or self-love issuing forth and -spreadingitselfintoasmanybranchesasmen -haveseveral appetites and inclinations. The -rootandfoundationoftheanimallifeIreckon -tobesense,takingitlargely,as itis opposed -unto faith, and importeth ourperception and -sensationofthings thatare either grateful or -troublesometous. Now,these animal affec- + +those things which are pleasing and accepta- + +ble to nature ; or self-love issuing forth and + +spreading itself into as many branches as men + +have several appetites and inclinations. The + +root and foundation of the animal life I reckon + +to be sense, taking it largely, as it is opposed + +unto faith, and importeth our perception and + +sensation of things that are either grateful or + +troublesome to us. Now, these animal affec- + tions considered in themselves, and as they -areimplantedin us bynature, are notvicious -or blamable; nay, they are instances ofthe -wisdomoftheCreatorfurnishinghiscreatures -withsuchappetitesastendto the preservation -andwelfareoftheirlives. Theseare instead +are implanted in us by nature, are not vicious + +or blamable ; nay, they are instances of the + +wisdom of the Creator furnishing his creatures + +with such appetites as tend to the preservation + +and welfare of their lives. These are instead ``` -/;/ the Soul ofAlan. +/;/ the Soul of Alan. ``` -ofa lawunto the brute beasts,wherebythey -are directedtowards the ends forw4iich they -weremade. Butman,beingmadefor higher -purposes, andtobe guided bymore excellent -laws,becomes (xuiltvandcriminalw4ienhe is -so far transported by the inclinations ofthis -low^erlife,astoviolatehisduty,orneglectthe -higherandmorenobledesignsofhiscreation. -Ournaturalaffectionsarenotw^ioll}"tobe ex- -tirpated and destroyed, but only tobe mod- -eratedand overruled bya superior and more -excellentprinciple. Inaword,the difference +of a law unto the brute beasts, whereby they -## between a religiousandawickedmanis,that +are directed towards the ends for w4iich they + +were made. But man, being made for higher + +purposes, and to be guided by more excellent + +laws, becomes (xuiltv and criminal w4ien he is + +so far transported by the inclinations of this + +low^er life, as to violate his duty, or neglect the + +higher and more noble designs of his creation. ``` -intheonedivinelilebears sway,in the other -theanimallitedothprevail. +Our natural affections are not w^ioll}" to be ex- +``` +tirpated and destroyed, but only to be mod- + +``` +erated and overruled by a superior and more ``` ``` +excellent principle. In a word, the difference +``` +between a religious and a wicked man is, that + +in the one divine lile bears sway, in the other + +the animal lite doth prevail. + THE DIFFERENT TEXDENXIES OF THE NATU- + +``` RAL LIFE. -"pUTitisstrange toobserve,untowhatdit- -ferentcourses this natural principle will -sometimes carrythosewhoarewhollyguided +``` +``` +"pUT it is strange to observe, unto what dit- +``` +``` +ferent courses this natural principle will +``` +``` +sometimes carry those who are wholly guided +``` +``` by it, according to the diverse circumstances -that concur with it to determine them; and ``` - -l6 TheLife ofGod +``` +that concur with it to determine them ; and +``` +``` +l6 The Life of God +``` +then not considering this, doth frequently oc- ``` -then not considering this,doth frequentlyoc- -casion verydangerousmistakes,making men +casion very dangerous mistakes, making men +``` think well of themselves by reason of that -seemingdifferencewhichisbetweenthemand -others; whereas perhaps their actions do all -the while flow from one and the sameorigi- -nal. Ifwe consider the natural temper and -constitutionofmen's souls,we shallfindsome -tobeairv,frolicsome, andlight,whichmakes -their behavior extravagant and ridiculous + +seeming difference which is between them and + +others ; whereas perhaps their actions do all + +the while flow from one and the same origi- + +nal. If we consider the natural temper and + ``` +constitution of men's souls, we shall find some +``` +to be airv, frolicsome, and light, which makes + +their behavior extravagant and ridiculous + ``` ; ``` whereas others are naturally serious and se- -vere,and theirwhole carriagecomposed into -such gravity as gains them a great deal of -reverenceandesteem. Someareofanhumor- -some, rugged, and morose temper, and can -neither be pleased themselves, nor endure -that others should be so. But all are not -bornwithsuchsourandunhappydispositions; -forsomepersonshaveacertainsweetnessand -benignity rooted in their natures, and they -find the greatest pleasurein theendearments -of society, and the mutual complacency of -friends, and covetnothingmorethantohave -## everybody obliged to them. And it is well +vere, and their whole carriage composed into + +``` +such gravity as gains them a great deal of +``` +reverence and esteem. Some are of an humor- + +some, rugged, and morose temper, and can + +neither be pleased themselves, nor endure + +that others should be so. But all are not + +born with such sour and unhappy dispositions ; + +for some persons have a certain sweetness and + +benignity rooted in their natures, and they + +find the greatest pleasure in the endearments + +of society, and the mutual complacency of + +friends, and covet nothing more than to have + +everybody obliged to them. And it is well that nature hath provided this complexional - -in the SoulofMan. 17 - -tendernesstosupplythe defectoftrue charity -inthe world,and to incline mento do some- +``` +tenderness to supply the defect of true charity +``` +``` +in the world, and to incline men to do some- +``` +``` thing for one another's welfare. Again, in +``` +``` regard of education, some have never been +``` +``` taught to follow any other rules, than those -of pleasure or advantage: but others areso -inuredtoobservethestrictestrulesofdecency -and honor, andsome instancesofvirtue,that +``` +``` +of pleasure or advantage : but others are so +``` +``` +inured to observe the strictest rules of decency +``` +``` +and honor, and some instances of virtue, that +``` +``` they are hardly capable of doing any thing +``` +``` which they have been accustomed to look +``` +``` upon as base and unworthy. -In line,it is no small difference in the de- -portmentofmerenatural men,thatdotharise -fromthestrengthorweaknessoftheir wit or -judgment, and from their careor negligence -in using them. Intemperance and lust, in- -justiceandoppression,and allthoseotherim- -pietieswhichaboundintheworld,andrender -itsomiserable,arethe issuesofself-love,the -effect of the animallifc^ when it is neither -overpowered by religion, nor governed by -natural reason. But if it once take hold of -reason,and getjudgmentandwittobe ofits -party,it willmany times disdain thegrosser -sort ofvices, and spring up unto fair imita- -2 +``` +``` +In line, it is no small difference in the de- +``` +``` +portment of mere natural men, that doth arise +``` +``` +from the strength or weakness of their wit or +``` +judgment, and from their care or negligence +in using them. Intemperance and lust, in- + +justice and oppression, and all those other im- + +pieties which abound in the world, and render + +it so miserable, are the issues of self-love, the + +effect of the animal lifc^ when it is neither + +overpowered by religion, nor governed by + +natural reason. But if it once take hold of + +reason, and get judgment and wit to be of its + +party, it will many times disdain the grosser + +sort of vices, and spring up unto fair imita- ``` -1 +2 ``` ``` 8 ``` -The Life ofGod - -## tionsofvirtue andgoodness. Ifa man have - ``` -but so much reasonastoconsider the preju- +tions of virtue and goodness. If a man have +``` +``` +but so much reason as to consider the preju- +``` +``` dice which intemperance and inordinate lust -dobringupon his health, his fortune,and his ``` -## reputation, self-love may suffice to restrain +``` +do bring upon his health, his fortune, and his +``` +``` +reputation, self-love may suffice to restrain +``` +``` +him ; and one may observe the rules of moral +``` +justice in dealing with others, as the best way -## him; andonemayobservethe rulesofmoral - -justicein dealingwithothers,asthebestway to secure his own interest, and maintain his -creditintheworld. Butthisisnotall. This - -## natural principle,bythe helpofreason, may +``` +credit in the world. But this is not all. This +``` +``` +natural principle, by the help of reason, may +``` take a higher flight, and come nigher the -## instances ofpiety and religion. It may in- - -## cline a man to the diligent study of divine - -## truths: for why should notthese, aswell as - ``` -otherspeculations,bepleasant and gratefulto +instances of piety and religion. It may in- +``` +``` +cline a man to the diligent study of divine +``` +``` +truths : for why should not these, as well as +``` +``` +other speculations, be pleasant and grateful to +``` +``` +curious and inquisitive minds? It may make +``` +``` +men zealous in maintaining and propagating +``` +``` +such opinions as they have espoused, and be ``` -## curiousand inquisitiveminds? It maymake - ``` -menzealous in maintaining and propagating -such opinions as theyhave espoused,and be very desirous that others should submit unto -theirjudgment,andapprove thechoiceofre- -ligionwhichthey themselves have made. It ``` -## maymake themdelight to hear andcompose - ``` -excellent discourses aboutthemattersofreli- -gion;for eloquenceis verypleasantwhatever +their judgment, and approve the choice of re- ``` -## bethe subject. Nay, someit maydispose to - - ``` -in the Soul ofAlan. 19 +ligion which they themselves have made. It +``` +``` +may make them delight to hear and compose +``` +``` +excellent discourses about the matters of reli- +``` +``` +gion ; for eloquence is very pleasant whatever +``` +``` +be the subject. Nay, some it may dispose to ``` ``` no small height of sensible devotion. The +``` +``` glorious things that are spoken of heaven, ``` -## may make even a carnal heart in love with - ``` -it; themetaphorsandsimilitudes madeuseof -inscripture,ofcrownsandsceptres,andrivers +may make even a carnal heart in love with +``` +``` +it ; the metaphors and similitudes made use of +``` +``` +in scripture, of crowns and sceptres, and rivers +``` +``` of pleasure, &c. will easily affect a man's -fancy,andmakehimwishtobethere,though -he neither understandnordesire those spirit- +``` +``` +fancy, and make him wish to be there, though +``` +``` +he neither understand nor desire those spirit- +``` +``` ual pleasures which are described and shad- -owed forthbythem: andwhen suchaperson +``` +``` +owed forth by them : and when such a person +``` +``` comes to believe that Christ has purchased ``` -## those glorious things for him, he may feel a - +``` +those glorious things for him, he may feel a +``` ,kind of tenderness and affection towards so + +``` great a benefactor, and imagine that he is -mightilyenamouredwith him,andvetallthe -while continue a strangerto the holytemper - -## and spirit of the blessed Jesus. And what - -## handthe naturalconstitution mayhave inthe - +``` +``` +mightily enamoured with him, and vet all the +``` +``` +while continue a stranger to the holy temper +``` +``` +and spirit of the blessed Jesus. And what +``` +``` +hand the natural constitution may have in the +``` ``` rapturous devotions of some melancholy per- -sons,hathbeen excellentlydiscovered oflate -byseverallearnedandjudiciouspens. ``` -## To conclude: there is nothing proper to - +``` +sons, hath been excellently discovered of late +``` +``` +by several learned and judicious pens. +``` +``` +To conclude : there is nothing proper to +``` ``` make a man's life pleasant, or himself emi- -nent and conspicuous in the world, but this -natural principle,assistedby wit andreason, ``` - -20 The Life ofGod - -## mayprompt himtoit. AndthoughIdo not +``` +nent and conspicuous in the world, but this +``` +``` +natural principle, assisted by wit and reason, +``` +may prompt him to it. And though I do not ``` condemn these things in themselves, yet it -concernsusneartytoknowandconsidertheir ``` -## nature, both that we may keep within due +``` +concerns us nearty to know and consider their +``` +``` +nature, both that we may keep within due +``` +bounds, and also that we may learn never to -## bounds,and also thatwe maylearn never to +value ourselves on the account of such attain- ``` -valueourselveson theaccountofsuchattain- -ments,norlaythe stressofreligionuponour -naturalappetitesorperformances. +ments, nor lay the stress of religion upon our ``` -## \VHEREINTHE DIVINE LIFE DOTH CONSIST. +``` +natural appetites or performances. +``` +``` +\VHEREIN THE DIVINE LIFE DOTH CONSIST. +``` +``` +TT is now time to return to the consideration +``` +``` +of that divine life whereof I was discours- +``` +ing before ; that life which is hid with Christ -``` -TT isnowtimetoreturnto the consideration -ofthatdivinelifewhereofIwasdiscours- -ingbefore;that lifewhich is hidwith Christ -in God,and therefore hath no glorious show -orappearanceintheworld,andtothenatural -``` -## manwillseemameanandinsipidnotion. As +in God, and therefore hath no glorious show + +or appearance in the world, and to the natural + +man will seem a mean and insipid notion. As + +the animal life consisteth in that narrow and + +confined love which is terminated on a man's + +self, and in his propension towards those things + +that are pleasing to nature ; so the divine life + +stands in an universal and unbounded affec- -the animal life consistethin that narrow and -confined lovewhich isterminated on aman's -self,andinhispropensiontowardsthosethings -that arepleasingtonature; sothedivine life -standsin an universal and unbounded affec- tion, and in the mastery over our natural -inclinations, that theymay never be able to - -## in the SoulofAfan. 21 +inclinations, that they may never be able to ``` betray us to those things which we know -to be blamable. The root ofthe divine Hfe -isfaith; the chiefbranches are,love toGod, -charityto man, purity and humihty: for (as -anexcellentperson hathwellobserved) how- -everthese namesbecommonandvulgar,and -make no extraordinary sound; yet do they -carrysuchamightysense,that thetongue of ``` -## man or angel can pronounce nothing more - +``` +to be blamable. The root of the divine Hfe +``` +``` +is faith ; the chief branches are, love to God, +``` +``` +charity to man, purity and humihty : for (as +``` +``` +an excellent person hath well observed) how- +``` +``` +ever these names be common and vulgar, and +``` +``` +make no extraordinary sound ; yet do they +``` +``` +carry such a mighty sense, that the tongue of +``` +``` +man or angel can pronounce nothing more +``` weighty or excellent. Faith hath the same + place in the divine life which sense hath in + the natural, being indeed nothing else but a -kindofsense,orfeelingpersuasionofspiritual -things. Itextendsitselfuntoalldivinetruths: + +kind of sense, or feeling persuasion of spiritual + +things. It extends itself unto all divine truths : + but, in our lapsed estate, it hath a peculiar + relation to the declarations of God's mercy + and reconcilableness to sinners through a -Mediator; and therefore, receiving its de- -nomination from thatprincipalobject,isordi- -narilytermedfaithin Jesus Christ, -Thelove ofGodis adelightful and affec- -tionate sense ofthe divine perfections,which + +Mediator ; and therefore, receiving its de- + +nomination from that principal object, is ordi- + +narily termed faith in Jesus Christ, + +``` +The love of God is a delightful and affec- +``` +tionate sense of the divine perfections, which + makes the soul resign and sacrifice itself -whollyuntohim,desiring above allthings to -pleasehim,anddelightinginnothingsomuch +wholly unto him, desiring above all things to -22 TheLife ofGod +please him, and delighting in nothing so much ``` -asinfellowshipandcommunionwithhim,and -beingreadytodo orsufferany thingfor his -sake,or athis pleasure. Though this affec- +as in fellowship and communion with him, and ``` -## tion may have its first rise from the favors +being ready to do or suffer any thing for his +``` +sake, or at his pleasure. Though this affec- +``` +tion may have its first rise from the favors + +``` and mercies of God towards ourselves, yet +``` +``` doth it in its growth and progress transcend +``` +``` such particular considerations, and ground +``` itself on his infinite goodness manifested in -all theworks ofcreation and providence. A + +all the works of creation and providence. A + soul thus possessed with divine love, must + needs be enlarged towards all mankind in a + sincere and unbounded affection, because of -the relationthe}^havetoGod,being his crea- + +the relation the}^ have to God, being his crea- + tures, and having something of his image -stampeduponthem. Andthis is thatcharity -Inamedasthesecondbranchofreligion,^and -under which all the parts ofjustice, all the -dutiesweowe to ourneighbor,are eminendy -comprehended: for hewhodoth trulyloveall + +stamped upon them. And this is that charity + +I named as the second branch of religion, ^and + +under which all the parts of justice, all the + +duties we owe to our neighbor, are eminendy + +comprehended : for he who doth truly love all + the world, will be nearly concerned in the -interestofeveryone; and sofarfromwrong- -ingorinjuringanyperson,that hewillresent -anyevil thatbefalls others,as ifit happened -tohimself. +interest of every one ; and so far from wrong- -/;/ ihc SoIII ofMan. 23 +ing or injuring any person, that he will resent -## ^yj)iirity,Iunderstandadueabstractedness +any evil that befalls others, as if it happened -from the bodv,and masteryover the inferior -appetites; orsuchatemperand disposition of - -## mind, as makes a man despise, and abstain - -from all pleasures and delights ofsense or -fancywhicharesintulinthemselvesortendto -extinguishorlessenourrelish ofmore divine -andintellectualpleasures; whichdothalsoin- -feraresolutenesstoundergoallthosehardships - -## he may meet with in the performance ofhis +to himself. ``` -duty. So that not only chastityand temper- -ance,butalsoChristian courage and magna- +^y j)iirity, I understand a due abstractedness ``` -## nimitymaycomeunderthishead. +from the bodv, and mastery over the inferior -Humilityimports a deep senseofourown +appetites ; or such a temper and disposition of + +mind, as makes a man despise, and abstain + +from all pleasures and delights of sense or + +fancy which are sintul in themselves or tend to + +extinguish or lessen our relish of more divine + +and intellectual pleasures ; which doth also in- + +fer a resoluteness to undergo all those hardships + +he may meet with in the performance of his + +duty. So that not only chastity and temper- + +ance, but also Christian courage and magna- + +nimity may come under this head. + +``` +Humility imports a deep sense of our own +``` weakness, with a hearty and affectionate ac- -knowledgmentofour owingallthatweareto -thedivinebounty; which is always accompa- -niedwithaprofoundsubmission tothewill of -God, and great deadness towards theglory -oftheworld,andapplauseofmen. -Thesearethehighestperfectionsthat either -menorangelsarecapableof;thevervfounda- -tionofheavenlaidin the soul. x\nd he who -hathattainedthem,needsnotdesiretoprvinto + +knowledgment of our owing all that we are to + +the divine bounty ; which is always accompa- + +nied with a profound submission to the will of + +God, and great deadness towards the glory + +of the world, and applause of men. + +``` +These are the highest perfections that either +``` +men or angels are capable of; the verv founda- + +tion of heaven laid in the soul. x\nd he who + +hath attained them, needs not desire to prv into + the hidden rolls of God's decrees, or search +the volumes of heaven, to know what is deter- -24 TheLife ofGod +mined about his everlasting condition ; but he -thevolumesofheaven,toknowwhatis deter- -minedabouthis everlasting condition;but he - -## mayfindacopyofGod'sthoughts concerning +may find a copy of God's thoughts concerning him written in his own breast. His love to -## GodmaygivehimassuranceofGod'sfavorto - -him; andthosebeginningsofhappinesswhich -hefeelsintheconformityofthepowersofhis -soultothenatureofGod,andcompliancewith -hiswill,areasurepledgethathisfelicityshall -be perfected, and continued to all eternity. - -## Anditisnotwithoutreason that one said, "I - -hadratherseethereal impressions ofa God- -likenatureuponmyownsoul,thanhaveavision - -## fromheaven,oran angel sentto tellme that - -## mynamewasenrolledinthebookoflife." - -RELIGION BETTER UNDERSTOOD BYACTIONS - -## THANBYWORDS. +God may give him assurance of God's favor to ``` -"\"\7'HENwehavesaidall that we can, the -secretm3'steriesofanewnatureanddi- +him ; and those beginnings of happiness which +``` +he feels in the conformity of the powers of his + +soul to the nature of God, and compliance with + +his will, are a sure pledge that his felicity shall + +be perfected, and continued to all eternity. + +And it is not without reason that one said, "I + +had rather see the real impressions of a God- + +like nature upon my own soul, than have a vision + +from heaven, or an angel sent to tell me that + +my name was enrolled in the book of life." + +RELIGION BETTER UNDERSTOOD BY ACTIONS + +``` +THAN BY WORDS. +``` +``` +"\"\ 7'HEN we have said all that we can, the +``` +``` +secret m3'steries of a new nature and di- +``` +``` vine life can never be sufficiently expressed ``` ``` ; ``` -languageandwordscannotreachthem:norcan -theybetrulyunderstoodbutbythosesoulsthat +language and words cannot reach them : nor can +they be truly understood but by those souls that -/;/ the Soul ofMan. 25 +are enkindled within, and awakened unto the -areenkindledwithin, and awakened unto the -senseandrehshof spiritualthings. The7'eisa -spirit in man, andthe inspirationoftheAl- -mightygivethhimtindei'standing. Thepower +sense and rehsh of spiritual things. The7'e is a -## and lifeofreligionmaybebetterexpressedin +spirit in man, and the inspiration of the Al- -``` -actionsthaninwords;becauseactionsaremore -lively things, and do better representthe in- -wardprinciplewhencetheyproceed;andthere- -``` -## fore we maytake the best measure ofthose +mighty giveth him tindei'standing. The power + +and life of religion may be better expressed in + +actions than in words ; because actions are more + +lively things, and do better represent the in- + +ward principle whence they proceed ; and there- + +fore we may take the best measure of those -``` gracious endowments from the deportment of -thoseinwiiom theyreside; especiallyas they -areperfectlyexemplifiedintheholylifeofour -blessed Saviour; a main partof whose busi- -nessinthisworld,was,toteachbyhispractice -whathedidrequireofothers, andtomakehis -ownconversationanexactresemblanceofthose -unparalleledruleswhichheprescribed:sothat -ifevertruegoodnesswasvisibletomortaleyes, -itw^asthenwhenhispresencedidbeautifyand -illustratethislowerworld. -``` -26 TheLife ofGod +those in wiiom they reside ; especially as they ``` -DIVINELOVE EXEMPLIFIED IN OUR SAVIOUR: -Hisdiligencein doingGod'sivill, andHispatiencein -bearingit. -"^I^HAT sincere and devoutaffectionwhere- -withhisblessedsoul did constantly burn -towardshisheavenlyFather, didexpressitself -inan entireresignationtohiswill. Itwashis -verymeat^todothe zuill, andfinish the work -ofhivithatsenthim. Thiswastheexerciseof -his childhood,and the constant employment +are perfectly exemplified in the holy life of our ``` -## ofhisriperage. Hesparednotravailorpains - -while hewas abouthisFather'sbusiness,but -tooksuchinfinitecontentandsatisfactioninthe -performance of it, thatwhen,beingfaint and -wearywithhisjourney, he rested himselfon -Jacob'swell,andentreatedwateroftheSama- - -## ritan woman; the success of his conference +blessed Saviour ; a main part of whose busi- ``` -withher,andthe accession thatwas made to -thekingdomofGod,filledhismindwith such -delight,asseemedtohaveredoundedtohisvery -body,refreshing his spirits, and making him -forgetthethirstwhereofhecomplainedbefore, -andrefusethemeatwhichhehadsenthis dis- +ness in this world, was, to teach by his practice ``` - -in the Soul ofMan. 27 +``` +what he did require of others, and to make his +``` +``` +own conversation an exact resemblance of those +``` +``` +unparalleled rules which he prescribed : so that +``` +``` +if ever true goodness was visible to mortal eyes, +``` +``` +it w^as then when his presence did beautify and +``` +``` +illustrate this lower world. +``` +``` +DIVINE LOVE EXEMPLIFIED IN OUR SAVIOUR: +``` +``` +His diligence in doing God's ivill, and His patience in +``` +``` +bearing it. +``` +``` +"^ I ^HAT sincere and devout affection where- +``` +``` +with his blessed soul did constantly burn +``` +``` +towards his heavenly Father, did express itself +``` +``` +in an entire resignation to his will. It was his +``` +``` +very meat^ to do the zuill, and finish the work +``` +``` +of hivi that sent him. This was the exercise of +``` +``` +his childhood, and the constant employment +``` +``` +of his riper age. He spared no travail or pains +``` +``` +while he was about his Father's business, but +``` +``` +took such infinite content and satisfaction in the +``` +``` +performance of it, that when, being faint and +``` +``` +weary with his journey, he rested himself on +``` +Jacob's well, and entreated water of the Sama- ``` -ciples to buy. Norwas he less patient and -submissivein suffering the will ofGod, than +ritan woman ; the success of his conference ``` -## diligentindoingofit. Heenduredthesharp- +``` +with her, and the accession that was made to +``` +the kingdom of God, filled his mind with such ``` -estafflictionsandextremestmiseries that ever -wereinflictedonanymortal,withoutarepining -thought,ordiscontentedword. Forthoughhe -was far from a stupid insensibility,or a fan- -tasticorStoicalobstinacy, andhadas quicka -senseofpain as other men, and the deepest -apprehensionofwhat he was to suffer in his -soul, (ashisbloodyszvcat,andthesoreamaze- -mentandsorrozvwhichheprofessed,doabun- -dantlydeclare); yetdidhe entirely submitto +delight, as seemed to have redounded to his very +``` +body, refreshing his spirits, and making him + +forget the thirst whereof he complained before, + +``` +and refuse the meat which he had sent his dis- +``` +``` +ciples to buy. Nor was he less patient and +``` +``` +submissive in suffering the will of God, than +``` +``` +diligent in doing of it. He endured the sharp- +``` +est afflictions and extremest miseries that ever + +were inflicted on any mortal, without a repining + +thought, or discontented word. For though he + +was far from a stupid insensibility, or a fan- + +tastic or Stoical obstinacy, and had as quick a + +sense of pain as other men, and the deepest + +apprehension of what he was to suffer in his + +soul, (as his bloody szvcat, and the sore amaze- + +ment and sorrozv which he professed, do abun- + +dantly declare) ; yet did he entirely submit to + that severe dispensation of Providence, and -willinglyacquiescedinit. -``` -## AndheprayedtoGod,that(fitwerepossi- ``` -ble^(or,asoneoftheEvangelistshathit,ifhe +willingly acquiesced in it. +``` +``` +And he prayed to God, that (f it werepossi- +``` +``` +ble^ (or, as one of the Evangelists hath it, if he +``` +``` were zvilling,) that cup anight be removed; ``` -## yet he gendy added. Nevertheless, not my +yet he gendy added. Nevertheless, not my zvill, but thine be done. Of what strange -importance are the expressions, fohnxii. 27, + +``` +importance are the expressions, fohn xii. 27, +``` +``` where he first acknowledgeth the anguish +``` +``` +of his spirit, Novj is my soul troubled; which +``` +``` +would seem to produce a kind of demur. And +``` +``` +what shall I say f and then he goes on to +``` +deprecate his sufferings, Father^ save mefrom -## ofhisspirit,Novjismysoultroubled; which +this hour; which he had no sooner uttered, but -## wouldseemtoproduceakind of demur.And +he doth, as it were, on second thoughts, recall -what shall Isayf and then he goes on to +it in these words, But for this cause catne I +into the world; and concludes, Father, glo- -28 TheLife ofGod +rify thy name. Now, we must not look on -deprecatehissufferings,Father^savemefrom -thishour; whichhehadnosooneruttered,but -hedoth,asitwere,onsecond thoughts,recall - -## it in thesewords,Butfor this causecatne I - -into the world; and concludes,Father, glo- -rify thy name. Now, we mustnot look on this as any levity, or blamable weakness in -## theblessedJesus. Heknewallalongwhathe +the blessed Jesus. He knew all along what he -wastosuffer,anddidmostresolutelyundergo -it. Butitshows usthe inconceivable weight -andpressurethathewastobear;which,being -soafflicting,andcontraryto nature, he could -notthink of withoutterror; yet, considering -thewillofGod, and the glory w^hich was to -redoundtohimfromthence, he was not only -contentbutdesiroustosufferit. +was to suffer, and did most resolutely undergo -## OurSaviour'sConstantDevotion +it. But it shows us the inconceivable weight +and pressure that he was to bear ; which, being + +so afflicting, and contrary to nature, he could + +not think of without terror ; yet, considering + +the will of God, and the glory w^hich was to + +redound to him from thence, he was not only + +content but desirous to suffer it. + +## OUR SAVIOUR'S CONSTANT DEVOTION. + +``` A NOTHER instance of his love to God, -w^as,his delightin conversingwith him -byprayer;w^hich made himfrequently retire -fromtheworld,andwiththe greatestdevotion -andpleasurespendwholenightsin that heav- +``` +``` +w^as, his delight in conversing with him +``` +by prayer ; w^hich made him frequently retire +from the world, and with the greatest devotion -in the SoulofMan. 29 +and pleasure spend whole nights in that heav- ``` -enlyexercise,thoughhehadnosinstoconfess, -andbutfewsecularintereststoprayfor;which, -alas! arealmosttheonlythingsthat are w^ont +enly exercise, though he had no sins to confess, ``` -## todrive us to our devotions. Nay,we may +``` +and but few secular interests to pray for ; which, +``` +``` +alas! are almost the only things that are w^ont +``` +``` +to drive us to our devotions. Nay, we may +``` +``` +say his w^hole life w^as a kind of prayer, a con- +``` +``` +stant course of communion with God ; if the +``` +``` +sacrifice was not always offering, yet was the +``` +``` +fire still kept alive : nor was ever the blessed +``` +Jesus surprised with that dulness or tepidity of -sayhisw^holelifew^asakindofprayer,acon- -stant course of communion with God; ifthe -sacrificewasnotalwaysoffering, yet was the -firestillkeptalive: nor was ever the blessed -Jesussurprisedwiththatdulness or tepidityof -spiritwhichwemustmanytimeswrestle with, -beforewe can befitfor theexercise ofdevo- +``` +spirit which we must many times wrestle with, +``` +``` +before we can be fit for the exercise of devo- +``` tion. -## OurSaviour'sCharitytoMen +## OUR SAVIOUR'S CHARITY TO MEN. ``` -TN thesecond place, I should speak ofhis -loveand charitytowardsallmen. Buthe -whowouldexpressit, musttranscribethe his- -toryofthegospel,and commentupon it: for -scarceanvthino;isrecordedtohavebeendone -orspokenbyhim,whichwasnotdesignedfor -thegoodandadvantageofsomeone or other. -Allhismiraculousworkswereinstancesofhis -goodness,aswellashispower; andtheyben- +TN the second place, I should speak of his ``` +``` +love and charity towards all men. But he +``` +who would express it, must transcribe the his- -30 TheLife ofGod +``` +tory of the gospel, and comment upon it : for +``` +``` +scarce anv thino; is recorded to have been done +``` +or spoken by him, which was not designed for + +the good and advantage of some one or other. + +``` +All his miraculous works were instances of his +``` +goodness, as well as his power; and they ben- efited those on ^Yhom they were wrought, as -wellastheyamazedthebeholders. Hischar- -itywasnotconfinedtohiskindredorrelations; -norwas allhiskindness swallowedup in the -endearmentsofthatpeculiarfriendship which + +well as they amazed the beholders. His char- + +ity was not confined to his kindred or relations ; + +nor was all his kindness swallowed up in the + +endearments of that peculiar friendship which + he carried towards the beloved disciple, but -everyonewashisfriendwhoobeyedhisholy -commands^Johnxv.14;'dndizuhosoeverdidthe -willofhisleather,thesamewastohimashis -brotheriandsister,andmother. -Neverwasanyunwelcometohimwhocame -withanhonestintention; nordidhe denyany -requestwhichtendedtothegoodofthosethat + +every one was his friend who obeyed his holy + +commands^ John xv. 14; 'dndizuhosoever did the + +will of his leather, the same was to him as his + +brotheri and sister, and mother. + +``` +Never was any unwelcome to him who came +``` +with an honest intention ; nor did he deny any + +request which tended to the good of those that + asked it. So that what was spoken of that -## RomanEmperor,whomforhis goodness they +Roman Emperor, whom for his goodness they + +called the darling of mankind, was really per- + +formed by him ; that never any departed from -calledthedarlingofmankind,wasreallyper- -formed byhim; thatneveranydepartedfrom him with a heavy countenance, except that -## richyouth,Markx.whowassorrytohearthat +rich youth, Mark x. who was sorry to hear that + +the kingdom of heaven stood at so high a rate, + +and that he could not save his soul and his + +money too. And certainly it troubled our Sav- + +iour, to see that when a price was in his hand + +to get wisdom, yet he had no heart to it. The + +ingenuity that appeared in his lirst address, had + +already procured some kindness for him ; for + +it is said, avd ycstis belwldiiig hivi, loved him. + +But must he for his sake cut out a new way to + +heaven, and alter the nature of things, which + +make it impossible that a covetous man should + +be happy? ``` -thekingdomofheavenstoodatsohigharate, -andthat he could not save his soul and his +And what shall I speak of his meekness, ``` -## moneytoo. AndcertainlyittroubledourSav- +who could encounter the monstrous ingratitude -``` -iour,toseethatwhenapricewasin his hand -togetwisdom,yethehadnohearttoit. The -ingenuitythatappearedinhislirstaddress,had -``` - -in the SoulofMan. 31 - -alreadyprocured some kindness for him; for -itissaid,avdycstisbelwldiiighivi,lovedhim. -Butmustheforhissakecutouta new wayto -heaven,andalter the nature ofthings,which - -## makeitimpossiblethatacovetousmanshould - -behappy? - -## And what shall I speak ofhis meekness, - -``` -whocouldencounterthemonstrous ingratitude and dissimulation of that miscreant who be- -trayedhim, in no harsher terms than these, -yudas, hetraycstthoitthe Son ofman zuifh a -``` -## kissf What further evidence couldwedesire + +trayed him, in no harsher terms than these, ``` -ofhisferventandunboundedcharity,thanthat -hewillinglylaiddownhislifeevenforhismost -bitterenemies; and,minglinghisprayerswith -hisblood,besought theFather that his death -mightnotbelaidtotheircharge,butmightbe- -come the meansofeternal life to those very -personswhoprocuredit? +yudas, hetraycst thoit the Son of man zuifh a ``` -T +kiss f What further evidence could we desire -## OurSaviour'sPurity +of his fervent and unbounded charity, than that + +``` +he willingly laid down his life even for his most +``` +bitter enemies ; and, mingling his prayers with + +``` +his blood, besought the Father that his death +``` +``` +might not be laid to their charge, but might be- +``` +``` +come the means of eternal life to those very +``` +``` +persons who procured it? +``` +### T + +## OUR SAVIOUR'S PURITY. ``` HE third branch of the divine life is -ptirity; which, as I said, consists in a ``` +``` +ptirity ; which, as I said, consists in a +``` +neglect of worldly enjoyments and accommo- -32 The Lifo ofGod - -neglect ofworldlyenjoyments and accommo- dations, and a resolute enduring of all such -troubles aswe meetwith in the doing ofour -duty. Now, surely, if ever any personwas -whollydeadtoallthe pleasuresofthenatural + +troubles as we meet with in the doing of our + +duty. Now, surely, if ever any person was + +wholly dead to all the pleasures of the natural + life, it was the blessed Jesus, who seldom -tasted themwhen theycame in his way;but -never stepped outof his roadto seek them. -## He allowed others the comforts of w-edlock, +tasted them when they came in his way ; but + +never stepped out of his road to seek them. + +He allowed others the comforts of w-edlock, + +and honored marriage with his presence ; and + +supplied the want of wine with a miracle, yet + +he would not work one for the relief of his own + +hunger in the w^ilderness : so gracious and + +divine w^as the temper of his soul, in allowing + +to others such lawful gratifications as himself + +thought good to abstain from, and supplying + +not only their more extreme and pressing ne- + +cessities, but also their smaller and less consid- -and honored marriagewithhispresence; and -suppliedthewantofwinewith a miracle,yet -hewouldnotworkoneforthereliefofhisown -hunger in the w^ilderness: so gracious and -divinew^asthe temper ofhissoul,inallowing -to others such lawfulgratificationsashimself -thoughtgood to abstain from, and supplying -notonlytheirmore extremeandpressingne- -cessities,butalsotheirsmallerandlessconsid- erable w^ants. We many times hear of our -Saviour's sighs, and groans, and tears; but -never that he laughed, andbut once that he -rejoiced in spirit; sothat through his w-hole -lifehedidexactlyanswerthatcharactergiven -ofhim by the prophet of old,that he w'as a -man ofsorrows^ and acquainted zvithg')'ief. +Saviour's sighs, and groans, and tears ; but -in the SoulofMan. 33 +never that he laughed, and but once that he + +rejoiced in spirit; so that through his w-hole + +life he did exactly answer that character given + +of him by the prophet of old, that he w'as a + +man of sorrows^ and acquainted zvith g')'ief. + +Nor were the troubles and disaccommodations + +of his life other than matters of choice. For + +never did there any appear on the stage of the -Norwerethe troublesanddisaccommodations -ofhis lifeotherthanmattersofchoice. For -neverdidthereanyappearonthestageofthe world with greater advantage to have raised -## himselftothehighestsecularfelicity. Hewho +himself to the highest secular felicity. He who + +could bring together such a prodigious number + +of fishes into his disciples' net, and, at another + +time, receive that tribute from a fish which he + +was to pay to the temple, might easily have + +made himself the richest person in the world. + +Nay, without any money he could have main- + +tained an army powerful enough to have jostled + +``` +CcBsar out of his throne ; having oftener than +``` +once fed several thousands with a few loaves -couldbringtogethersuchaprodigiousnumber -offishesintohisdisciples'net,and,atanother -time,receive thattribute fromafishwhichhe -wasto payto the temple, might easily have -madehimselftherichest personintheworld. -Nay,withoutanymoneyhe couldhavemain- -tainedanarmypowerfulenoughtohavejostled -CcBsaroutofhis throne; having oftenerthan -once fed several thousandswith a fewloaves and small fishes. But, to show how small -esteem he had of allthe enjoyments in the -world, hechose tolive in so poor andmean -a condition, that though thefoxes hadholes + +esteem he had of all the enjoyments in the + +world, he chose to live in so poor and mean + +a condition, that though the foxes had holes ``` ^ ``` -``` -andthe birdsoftheairhadnests.,yethewho -was lord and heir ofall things, had 7iot -``` -## whereontolayhishead. Hedidnotfrequent +and the birds of the air had nests., yet he who ``` -the courts ofprinces,norafiect theacquaint- -ance or converse of great ones; but, being -reputed thesonofacarpenter, hehadfisher- -men and suchother poorpeople forhiscom- +was lord and heir of all things, had 7iot +``` +whereon to lay his head. He did not frequent + +the courts of princes, nor afiect the acquaint- + +``` +ance or converse of great ones ; but, being +``` +``` +reputed the son of a carpenter, he had fisher- +``` +``` +men and such other poor people for his com- +``` +``` 3 ``` - -34 TheLife ofGod +``` +panions, and lived at such a rate as suited with +``` +``` +the meanness of that condition. +``` +## OUR SAVIOUR'S HUMILITY. ``` -panions,andlivedatsucharateassuitedwith -themeannessofthatcondition. +A ND thus I am brought unawares to speak ``` -## OurSaviour'sHumility - ``` -A NDthusI ambroughtunawarestospeak of his humility^ the last branch of the -divine life; wherein he was a most eminent -patterntous, thatwemightlearn ofhimtohe +``` +``` +divine life ; wherein he was a most eminent +``` +``` +pattern to us, that we might learn ofhim to he +``` +``` meek and lozvly in heart. I shall not now +``` +``` speak of that infinite condescension of the -eternalSonofGod,intakingournatureupon -him; but only reflecton our Saviour's lowly +``` +``` +eternal Son of God, in taking our nature upon +``` +him ; but only reflect on our Saviour's lowly + +``` and humble deportment while he was in the ``` -## world. He had none of those sins and im- +``` +world. He had none of those sins and im- +``` +perfections which may justly humble the best -## perfections whichmay justlyhumble the best +of men ; but he was so entirely swallowed up -ofmen; but hewas so entirelyswallowedup -with a deepsenseofthe infiniteperfectionsof -God,that he appeared as nothinginhis own +with a deep sense of the infinite perfections of -## eyes,Imean, sofarashewasacreature. He +God, that he appeared as nothing in his own + +eyes, I mean, so far as he was a creature. He considered those eminent perfections which -shinedin his blessedsoul,asnothisown,but -thegiftsofGod; andthereforeassumednoth- + +shined in his blessed soul, as not his own, but + +the gifts of God ; and therefore assumed noth- + ing to himself for them, but with the pro- - -in the SoulofMan. 35 - -``` foundest humility renounced all pretences to -them. Hencedidherefusethatordinarycom- -pellation ofgood master, when addressed to -``` -## his human nature,byonewhomitseemswas -## ignorant ofhis divinity: Whycallestthoume - -goodPthere isnonegood, butGodonly:As -ifhe had said,The goodness ofanycreature - -## (and such only thou takest me tobe) isnot +them. Hence did he refuse that ordinary com- ``` -worthytobe named ortaken notice of; itis +pellation of good master, when addressed to +``` +``` +his human nature, by one whom it seems was +``` +``` +ignorant of his divinity : Why callest thou me +``` +good P there is none good, but God only: As + +``` +if he had said, The goodness of any creature +``` +``` +(and such only thou takest me to be) is not +``` +``` +worthy to be named or taken notice of; it is +``` +``` God alone who is originally and essentially ``` -## good. He nevermadeuse ofhis miraculous - -## power for vanity or ostentation. He would - +``` +good. He never made use of his miraculous +``` +``` +power for vanity or ostentation. He would +``` ``` not gratify the curiosity of the Jews with a -signfromheaven,someprodigiousappearance -in theair: norwould hefollowthe advice of -his countrymen and kindred,whowouldhave -hadallhisgreat worksperlbrmedin theeyes -oftheworld,forgaininghimthegreaterfame. -Butwhenhischarityhadprompted himtothe -reliefofthe miserable,his humilitymadehim -manytimesenjointheconcealmentofthemir- -acle; andwhen the glory of God, and the -designforwhich he came into the world, re- -quiredthepublicationofthem,heascribedthe ``` +``` +sign from heaven, some prodigious appearance +``` +``` +in the air : nor would he follow the advice of +``` +``` +his countrymen and kindred, who would have +``` +``` +had all his great works perlbrmed in the eyes +``` +``` +of the world, for gaining him the greater fame. +``` +``` +But when his charity had prompted him to the +``` +``` +relief of the miserable, his humility made him +``` +``` +many times enjoin the concealment of the mir- +``` +``` +acle ; and when the glory of God, and the +``` +``` +design for which he came into the world, re- +``` +``` +quired the publication of them, he ascribed the +``` +honor of all to his Father, telling them, that of -36 The LifeofGod +himself he was able to do 7iothing. ``` -honorofalltohisFather,tellingthem,thatof -himselfhewasabletodo7iothing. -I cannot insist on allthe instances of hu- -mility in his deportment towards men; his +I cannot insist on all the instances of hu- +``` +mility in his deportment towards men ; his + withdrawing himself when they would have -made hima king, his subjection,notonly to -hisblessedmother,buttoherhusband,during -his youngeryears; andhis submission toall -theindignitiesandaffrontswhichhisrudeand -malicious enemies did put upon him. The -historyof hisholylife,recordedbythosewho -conversedwithhim,isfullofsuchpassagesas -``` -## these. And indeedthe serious and attentive -studyofit,is the bestwaytogetrightmeas- -ures ofhumility, and all the other parts of -religionwhichI havebeenendeavoringtode- +made him a king, his subjection, not only to + +his blessed mother, but to her husband, during + +his younger years ; and his submission to all + +the indignities and affronts which his rude and + +malicious enemies did put upon him. The + +history of his holy life, recorded by those who + +conversed with him, is full of such passages as + +these. And indeed the serious and attentive + +study of it, is the best way to get right meas- + +ures of humility, and all the other parts of + +religion which I have been endeavoring to de- + scribe. -## Butnow,that I maylessen yourtrouble of +``` +But now, that I may lessen your trouble of +``` +reading a long letter, by making some pauses -readingalongletter,bymakingsomepauses +in it, let me here subjoin a prayer that might -## in it,letme here subjoin a prayerthatmight +be proper when one who had formerly enter- + +tained some false notions of religion, begins to + +discover what it is. + +## A PRAYER. ``` -beproperwhen onewho had formerlyenter- -tainedsomefalsenotionsofreligion,beginsto -discoverwhatitis. +" TNFINITE and eternal Majesty, author and ``` - -/;/ the SoulofMan. 37 - -## APrayer - ``` -"TNFINITEandeternalMajesty,authorand -fountain ofbeing and blessedness, how -littledowepoorsinfulcreaturesknowofthee, -orthewaytoserveandpleasethee! Wetalk -ofreligion,andpretenduntoit: butalasI how -feware therethat knowand considerwhatit -means! Howeasilydowe mistaketheaffec- -tionsofournature, andtheissuesof self-love -forthosedivinegraceswhichalonecanrender +fountain of being and blessedness, how +``` +``` +little do we poor sinful creatures know of thee, +``` +``` +or the way to serve and please thee! We talk +``` +``` +of religion, and pretend unto it: but alas I how +``` +``` +few are there that know and consider what it +``` +``` +means! How easily do we mistake the affec- +``` +``` +tions of our nature, and the issues of self-love +``` +``` +for those divine graces which alone can render +``` +``` +us acceptable in thy sight I It may justly ``` -## us acceptable in thy sightI It may justly - ``` grieve me, to consider, that I should have -wandered so long, and contented myselfso -often with vainshadows and false images of -pietvandreligion: yetI cannotbutacknowl- -edgeandadore thygoodness,who hast been -pleasedin some measure toopenmine eyes, ``` -## andlet me seewhatitis atwhich I oughtto - ``` -aim. I rejoice to consider whatmighty im- +wandered so long, and contented myself so ``` -## provements mynatureiscapable of,andwhat +``` +often with vain shadows and false images of +``` +``` +pietv and religion : yet I cannot but acknowl- +``` +``` +edge and adore thy goodness, who hast been +``` +``` +pleased in some measure to open mine eyes, +``` +``` +and let me see what it is at which I ought to +``` +``` +aim. I rejoice to consider what mighty im- +``` +provements my nature is capable of, and what -a divine temper ofspirit doth shine in those +a divine temper of spirit doth shine in those -## whom thou art pleasedtochoose,andcausest +whom thou art pleased to choose, and causest to approach unto thee. Blessed be thine in- - -38 The Life ofGod - finite mercy, who sentest thine own Son to -dwell among men,andtoinstructthembyhis -example aswell as his laws, givingthem a -## perfect patternofwhattheyoughttobe. Oh +dwell among men, and to instruct them by his -## that the holy life of the blessed Jesus may +example as well as his laws, giving them a -## be always in mythoughts, and before mine +perfect pattern of what they ought to be. Oh + +that the holy life of the blessed Jesus may + +be always in my thoughts, and before mine ``` -eyes,tillIreceiveadeepsenseandimpression -ofthose excellent graces that shined so emi- +eyes, till I receive a deep sense and impression +``` +``` +of those excellent graces that shined so emi- +``` +``` +nently in him ; and let me never cease my en- +``` +``` +deavors, till that new and divine nature prevail +``` +``` +in my soul and Christ be formed within me." +``` +``` +THE EXCELLENXY AND ADVANTAGE OF ``` -## nentlyin him; andletmeneverceasemyen- - -deavors,tillthatnewanddivinenatureprevail - -## inmysoulandChristbeformedwithinme." - -## THE EXCELLENXYAND ADVANTAGE OF - ``` RELIGION. ``` ``` -A ND now,mydear friend,having discov- -eredthenatureoftruereligion,beforeI +A ND now, my dear friend, having discov- +``` +``` +ered the nature of true religion, before I +``` +``` proceed any further^, it will not perhaps be -unfittofixourmeditationsalittleontheexcel- ``` -## lency and advantages of it; thatwe may be - ``` -excitedtothemorevigorousanddiligentprose- -cution ofthose methods wherebywe mayat- -tainso£ri*eatafelicitv. Butalas! whatwords -shallwefindtoexpressthatinwardsatisfaction, +unfit to fix our meditations a little on the excel- ``` - ``` -ill the Soul ofAlan. 39 +lency and advantages of it ; that we may be +``` +``` +excited to the more vigorous and diligent prose- +``` +``` +cution of those methods whereby we may at- +``` +``` +tain so £ri*eat a felicitv. But alas! what words +``` +``` +shall we find to express that inward satisfaction, +``` ``` those hidden pleasures which can never be -righdyunderstood,butbythoseholysoulswho -feelthem? Astrangerintermeddlethnotwith -theirjoy. Holiness is the righttemper, the -vigorousandhealthfulconstitutionofthesoul. -Its faculties had formerl}^been enfeebled and -disordered,sothattheycouldnotexercisetheir -natural functions; it had wearied itselfw^ith +``` +``` +righdy understood, but by those holy souls who +``` +``` +feel them? A stranger intermeddleth not with +``` +``` +their joy. Holiness is the right temper, the +``` +``` +vigorous and healthful constitution of the soul. +``` +``` +Its faculties had formerl}^ been enfeebled and +``` +``` +disordered, so that they could not exercise their +``` +``` +natural functions ; it had wearied itself w^ith +``` +``` endless tossings and rollings, and was never -able to find any rest: now, that distemper -being removed, it feels itself well; there is -adue harmonyinitsfaculties,andasprightly -vigorpossessetheverypart. Theunderstand- -ingcandiscernwhatisgood,andthewillcan -cleaveuntoit: theaffectionsarenottiedtothe -motionsofsense,andtheinfluenceofexternal -objects; but they are stirred by more divine -impressions,are touched bya senseofinvisi- -blethings. - -L - -## TheExcellencyofDivineLove +``` +``` +able to find any rest : now, that distemper +``` +being removed, it feels itself well ; there is ``` -ETusdescend,ifyouplease,intoanearer -and more particular view ofreligion, in +a due harmony in its faculties, and a sprightly ``` +vigor possesseth every part. The understand- -40 TheLife ofGod +ing can discern what is good, and the will can -thoseseveralbranchesofitwhichwerenamed -before. Letus consider thatlove and affec- -tionwherewith holysouls are united to God, +cleave unto it : the affections are not tied to the -## thatw^e maysee what excellency and felicity +motions of sense, and the influence of external + +objects ; but they are stirred by more divine + +impressions, are touched by a sense of invisi- + +ble things. + +#### L + +## THE EXCELLENCY OF DIVINE LOVE. + +``` +ET us descend, if you please, into a nearer +``` +``` +and more particular view of religion, in +``` +those several branches of it which were named + +before. Let us consider that love and affec- + +tion wherewith holy souls are united to God, + +that w^e may see what excellency and felicity + +is involved in it. Love is that powerful and -isinvolved in it. Love is that powerfuland prevalent passion, by which all the faculties + and inclinations of the soul are determined, + and on which both its perfection and happi- -nessdepend. Theworthand excellencyofa -soulis tobe measured by the object of its -## love. Hewholovethmeanandsordidthings, +ness depend. The worth and excellency of a + +soul is to be measured by the object of its + +love. He who loveth mean and sordid things, ``` -doth thereby become base and vile; but a -noble andwell-placed affection,doth advance -andnnprove the spirit into a conformit}^with +doth thereby become base and vile ; but a +``` +``` +noble and well-placed affection, doth advance +``` +``` +and nnprove the spirit into a conformit}^ with +``` the perfections which it loves. The images -ofthesedofrequentlypresentthemselves unto -the mind,and, bya secretforceand energy, -insinuateintotheveryconstitutionofthe soul, -and mouldand fashionituntotheirownlike- -``` -## ness. Hence we may see how easily lovers ``` -orfriendsdoslideintotheimitationoftheper- -sonsw^homthey affect, andhow, even before -theyareaware,theybegin toresemble them, +of these do frequently present themselves unto +``` +``` +the mind, and, by a secret force and energy, +``` +``` +insinuate into the very constitution of the soul, +``` +``` +and mould and fashion it unto their own like- +``` +``` +ness. Hence we may see how easily lovers +``` +``` +or friends do slide into the imitation of the per- +``` +``` +sons w^hom they affect, and how, even before +``` +``` +they are aware, they begin to resemble them, +``` +``` not only in the more considerable instances +``` +``` of their deportment, but also in their voice ``` - -the SoulofMan. 41 - -andgesture, andthatwhichwecalltheirmien - -## and air. And certainly we should as well - +``` +and gesture, and that which we call their mien +``` +``` +and air. And certainly we should as well +``` transcribe the virtues and inward beauties of -the soul, ifthey were the object and motive -of our love. But now, as all the creatures -we conversewith have their mixture and al- -loy,w^earealwaj^sinhazardtobesullied and -corruptedby placingour affections on them. -Passiondotheasilyblindour eyes,so thatwe -firstapprove,andthenimitate the things that -areblamable in them. Thetruewayto im- -proveandennoble our souls,is,bvfixing our -## love on the divine perfections, that we may +the soul, if they were the object and motive + +of our love. But now, as all the creatures + +we converse with have their mixture and al- + +loy, w^e are alwaj^s in hazard to be sullied and + +corrupted by placing our affections on them. + +Passion doth easily blind our eyes, so that we + +first approve, and then imitate the things that + +are blamable in them. The true way to im- + +prove and ennoble our souls, is, bv fixing our + +love on the divine perfections, that we may have them always before us, and derive an -impression ofthem on ourselves,and behold- -ingwithofenface^asinaglass,thegloryof -the Lord, zue maybe changed into the same -## image,fromglory toglory. Hewho witha +impression of them on ourselves, and behold- + +ing with ofen face^ as in a glass, the glory of + +the Lord, zue may be changed into the same + +image, from glory to glory. He who with a generous and holy ambition hath raised his -e3^estowardsthatuncreated beautyand good- -ness,andfixedhis affection there, is quiteof -anotherspirit,ofa more excellent and heroic -temperthantherestoftheworld; and cannot -butinfinitely disdain all mean and unworthy -things; will not entertain any low or base +e3^es towards that uncreated beauty and good- -42 The Life ofGod +ness, and fixed his affection there, is quite of + +another spirit, of a more excellent and heroic + +temper than the rest of the world ; and cannot + +but infinitely disdain all mean and unworthy + +things ; will not entertain any low or base + +thoughts which might disparage his high and -thoughtswhichmight disparagehis high and noble pretensions. Love is the greatest and -mostexcellent thingwe aremasters of; and -therefore itis follyand baseness to bestowit -unworthily. It is indeed the only thing we -cancallourown. Otherthingsmaybetaken -fromusbyviolence; butnone can ravish our -love. Ifany thing,else be counted ours, by -givingourlovewegiveall,sofaraswemake -over our hearts and wills,b}' which we pos- -sessourother enjoyments. Itis not possible -## to refuse him anvthincr,towhom bvlovewe +most excellent thing we are masters of; and + +therefore it is folly and baseness to bestow it + +unworthily. It is indeed the only thing we + +can call our own. Other things may be taken + +from us by violence ; but none can ravish our + +love. If any thing, else be counted ours, by + +giving our love we give all, so far as we make + +over our hearts and wills, b}' which we pos- + +sess our other enjoyments. It is not possible + +to refuse him anv thincr, to whom bv love we have given ourselves. Nay, since it is the -privilege of gifts to receive theirvalue from -themindofthegiver, andnottobe measured -by the event, but by the desire; he who -## lovethmayinsome sensebe saidnotonlyto +privilege of gifts to receive their value from + +the mind of the giver, and not to be measured + +by the event, but by the desire ; he who + +loveth may in some sense be said not only to bestow all that he hath, but all things else -## which may makethe belovedperson happy, +which may make the beloved person happy, -since he doth heartilywish them, and would -readily givethem,iftheywerein his power. -In which sense itis that one makesbold to -say, Thatdivine lovedoth in a mannergive -Godunto himsefbythe complacencyit takes -inthe happinessandperfectionofhisnature. +since he doth heartily wish them, and would +readily give them, if they were in his power. + +In which sense it is that one makes bold to + +say, That divine love doth in a manner give ``` -in the SoulofAlan. 43 +God unto himsef by the complacency it takes ``` -## Butthoughthismayseemtoo strained an ex- +in the happiness and perfection of his nature. -pression,certainlyloveistheworthiestpresent -we can offerunto God; and it is extremely -debasedwhenwebestowitanotherway. +But though this may seem too strained an ex- + +pression, certainly love is the worthiest present + +we can offer unto God ; and it is extremely + +debased when we bestow it another way. + +``` When this affection is misplaced, it doth -oftenventitselfinsuchexpressionsaspointat -its genuine and properobject, and insinuate -whereit ought to be placed. The flattering -andblasphemous termsofadoration,wherein -men do sometimes express their passion,are -thelanguageofthataffectionwhichwasmade -anddesignedforGod;ashewhoisaccustomed -tospeaktosomegreat person, doth, perhaps, -unawares, accostanother with those titles he -was wont to give to him. Butcertainlythat +``` +often vent itself in such expressions as point at + +its genuine and proper object, and insinuate + +where it ought to be placed. The flattering + +and blasphemous terms of adoration, wherein + +men do sometimes express their passion, are + +the language of that affection which was made + +and designed for God ; as he who is accustomed + +to speak to some great person, doth, perhaps, + +unawares, accost another with those titles he + +was wont to give to him. But certainly that + passion which accounteth its object a Deity, -oughttobebestowedonhimwhoreallyis so. + +ought to be bestowed on him who really is so. + +``` Those unlimited submissions, which would -debase the soul if directed toanyother,will -exaltandennobleitwhenplacedhere. Those +``` +``` +debase the soul if directed to any other, will +``` +``` +exalt and ennoble it when placed here. Those +``` +``` chains and cords of love are infinitely more -gloriousthanlibertyitself; thisslaveryismore -noblethanailtheempiresintheworld. +``` +``` +glorious than liberty itself; this slavery is more +``` +``` +noble than ail the empires in the world. +``` +## THE ADVANTAGES OF DIVINE LOVE. - -44 TheLife ofGod - -## TheAdvantagesofDivineLove - -\ GAIN, asdiv^ine love doth advance and -^ ^ elevatethesoul,soitisthatalonewhich +``` +\ GAIN, as div^ine love doth advance and +``` +``` +^ ^ elevate the soul, so it is that alone which +``` can make it happy. The highest and most -ravishingpleasures,themostsolidandsubstan- -tialdelights,thathuman nature is capable of, -arethosewhicharisefromthe endearments of -awell-placed and successful affection. That -whichimbitterslove, and makesit ordinarily -averytroublesomeand hurtful passion,is the -placingitonthosewhohavenotworthenough -todeserveit,or affection and gratitude to re- -## quireit,orwhose absence may deprive us of +ravishing pleasures, the most solid and substan- -thepleasureoftheirconverse,ortheirmiseries +tial delights, that human nature is capable of, -## occasion our trouble. To all these evils are +are those which arise from the endearments of -theyexposed,whosechiefandsupreme affec- -tionisplacedoncreatureslikethemselves:but -theloveofGoddeliversusfromthemall. +a well-placed and successful affection. That +which imbitters love, and makes it ordinarily -tn the SoulofMan. 45 +a very troublesome and hurtful passion, is the -## THEWORTHOFTHEOBJECT. +placing it on those who have not worth enough -## L^IRST,I say,love must needs be misera- +to deserve it, or affection and gratitude to re- -ble, and full oftrouble and disquietude, -whenthereisnotworthandexcellencyenough -intheobjecttoanswer the vastness ofits ca- -pacity. Soeagerand violent a passion, can- -notbutfretandtormentthespirit,whereitfinds -notwherewithtosatisfyitscravings. And,in- -deed,solargeandunboundedisitsnature,that -itmust be extremely pinched and straitened, -whenconfinedtoanycreature; nothing below -aninfinitegood can aftbrd it room to stretch +quire it, or whose absence may deprive us of -## itself,andexertits vigorand activity. What +the pleasure of their converse, or their miseries + +occasion our trouble. To all these evils are + +they exposed, whose chief and supreme affec- + +tion is placed on creatures like themselves : but + +the love of God delivers us from them all. + +## THE WORTH OF THE OBJECT. + +``` +L^IRST, I say, love must needs be misera- +``` +``` +ble, and full of trouble and disquietude, +``` +``` +when there is not worth and excellency enough +``` +``` +in the object to answer the vastness of its ca- +``` +``` +pacity. So eager and violent a passion, can- +``` +``` +not but fret and torment the spirit, where it finds +``` +``` +not wherewith to satisfy its cravings. And, in- +``` +``` +deed, so large and unbounded is its nature, that +``` +it must be extremely pinched and straitened, + +when confined to any creature ; nothing below + +an infinite good can aftbrd it room to stretch + +itself, and exert its vigor and activity. What is a little skin-deep beauty, or some small -degreesofgoodness,tomatchorsatisfyapas- -sionwhichwasmadeforGod,designedtoem- -## braceaninfinitegood? Nowonderlovers do +degrees of goodness, to match or satisfy a pas- -sohardlysuffer any rival, and do not desire -thatothersshouldapprovetheirpassionbyim- -itatingit. Theyknowthescantinessand nar- -rownessofthe good which they love, that it -cannotsufficetwo,beingineffect toolittle for -one. Hence love, which is strong-as death, +sion which was made for God, designed to em- +brace an infinite good? No wonder lovers do -46 The Life ofGod +so hardly suffer any rival, and do not desire +that others should approve their passion by im- + +itating it. They know the scantiness and nar- + +rowness of the good which they love, that it + +cannot suffice two, being in effect too little for + +one. Hence love, which is strong- as death, + +``` occasioneth jealousy which is cruel as the +``` grave; the coals whereof are coals of fire, -which hath a most violent flame. -Butdivinelovehathnomixtureofthisgall +``` +which hath a most violent flame. +``` +``` +But divine love hath no mixture of this gall +``` ``` ; ``` ``` -whenonce the soul is fixed on that supreme -andall-sufficient good, it finds so much per- -fectionandgoodness,asdoth notonlyanswer -andsatisfyitsaffection, but master and over- -powerittoo: itfindsallitslovetobe toofaint -andlanguidforsuchanobleobject,andisonly -sorrythatitcancommandnomore. Itwisheth -fortheflames ofa serafh. and longs for the -timewhenitshall be wholly melted and dis- -solvedintolove: andbecauseitcandosolittle -itself,itdesirestheassistanceofthewholecrea- -tion,thatangelsandmenwouldconcurwithit -intheadmirationandloveofthoseinfiniteper- +when once the soul is fixed on that supreme +``` +``` +and all-sufficient good, it finds so much per- +``` +``` +fection and goodness, as doth not only answer +``` +``` +and satisfy its affection, but master and over- +``` +``` +power it too : it finds all its love to be too faint +``` +``` +and languid for such a noble object, and is only +``` +``` +sorry that it can command no more. It wisheth +``` +``` +for the flames of a serafh. and longs for the +``` +``` +time when it shall be wholly melted and dis- +``` +``` +solved into love : and because it can do so little +``` +``` +itself, it desires the assistance of the whole crea- +``` +``` +tion, that angels and men would concur with it +``` +``` +in the admiration and love of those infinite per- +``` +``` fections. ``` -THECERTAINTYTOBEBELOVEDAGAIN. +## THE CERTAINTY TO BE BELOVED AGAIN. ``` -A GAIN,loveis accompaniedwith trouble, -whenitmissethasuitablereturnofaffec- -tion: loveis the mostvaluable thina" we can +A GAIN, love is accompanied with trouble, ``` - -in the SoulofMan. 47 - -bestow,andbygivingit,we do in effect give -allthatwehave; and therefore it needs must -beafflicting tofind so great a gift despised, -thatthe present which one hath made ofhis -wholeheart, cannot prevail toobtain any re- -turn. Perfectloveisakindofself-dereliction, -awanderingoutofourselves; itis a kind of -voluntarydeath,whereintheloverdiestohim- -self,andallhis own interest, notthinking of -them,norcaringfortheman}^more,andmind- - -## ingnothingbuthowhemaypleaseandgratify - -## the partywhom he loves. Thus he is quite - -undoneunlesshe meets with reciprocal aliec- -tion; heneglectshimself, and the other hath -noregardtohim; butifhe be beloved, he is -revived,asitwere,andlivethin the soul and - -## careofthe person whom he loves; and now - -hebeginstomind his own concernments, not -somuchbecausetheyare his, asbecause the -belovedispleasedtoown an interestin them. - -## Hebecomesdearunto himself, because he is - -sountotheother. - -## Butwhyshould I enlarge on so known a - -matter? Nothingcanbemoreclear,thanthat -thehappinessoflovedependson thereturn it - - -zj.8 TheLife ofGod - -## meetswith. Andhereinthedivinelover hath +``` +when it misseth a suitable return of affec- +``` +``` +tion : love is the most valuable thina" we can +``` +``` +bestow, and by giving it, we do in effect give +``` +``` +all that we have ; and therefore it needs must +``` +``` +be afflicting to find so great a gift despised, +``` +``` +that the present which one hath made of his +``` +``` +whole heart, cannot prevail to obtain any re- +``` +turn. Perfect love is a kind of self-dereliction, ``` -unspeakablytheadvantage,havingplaced his -affectiononhimwhose nature is love; whose -goodness is as infinite as his being; whose -mercypreventeduswhenwewerehisenemies, -thereforecannotchoosebut embraceus when -we are become his friends. It is utterlyim- +a wandering out of ourselves ; it is a kind of +``` +voluntary death, wherein the lover dies to him- + +``` +self, and all his own interest, not thinking of +``` +them, nor caring for them an}^ more, and mind- + +ing nothing but how he may please and gratify + +the party whom he loves. Thus he is quite + +undone unless he meets with reciprocal aliec- + +tion ; he neglects himself, and the other hath + +no regard to him ; but if he be beloved, he is + +revived, as it were, and liveth in the soul and + +care of the person whom he loves ; and now + +he begins to mind his own concernments, not + +so much because they are his, as because the + +beloved is pleased to own an interest in them. + +He becomes dear unto himself, because he is + +so unto the other. + +``` +But why should I enlarge on so known a +``` +matter? Nothing can be more clear, than that + +the happiness of love depends on the return it + +meets with. And herein the divine lover hath + +unspeakably the advantage, having placed his + +affection on him whose nature is love ; whose + +goodness is as infinite as his being ; whose + +mercy prevented us when we were his enemies, + +therefore cannot choose but embrace us when + +we are become his friends. It is utterly im- + possible that God should deny his love to a -soulwhollydevotedtohim,andwhich desires -nothingsomuch as to serve and please him. -``` -## Hecannotdisdainhisownimage,northeheart ``` -inwhichitisengraven. Loveis all the trib- -utewhichwecanpayhim,anditis the sacri- -ficewhichhewillnotdespise. +soul wholly devoted to him, and which desires ``` ``` -THE PRESENXE OFTHE BELOVED PERSON. -A XOTHERthingwhichdisturbsthepleas- -ure oflove, and renders it a miserable -andunquietpassion,isabsenceandseparation -fromthosewelove. Itisnotwithouta sensi- -bleaffliction that friends do part, thoughfor -somelittletime. It is sad to be deprived of -thatsocietywhichissodelightful; ourlifebe- +nothing so much as to serve and please him. ``` - -in the SoulofMan. 49 - ``` -comestedious,beingspentinanimpatientex- +He cannot disdain his own image, nor the heart +``` +``` +in which it is engraven. Love is all the trib- +``` +``` +ute which we can pay him, and it is the sacri- +``` +``` +fice which he will not despise. +``` +``` +THE PRESENXE OF THE BELOVED PERSON. +``` +``` +A XOTHER thing which disturbs the pleas- +``` +``` +ure of love, and renders it a miserable +``` +``` +and unquiet passion, is absence and separation +``` +``` +from those we love. It is not without a sensi- +``` +``` +ble affliction that friends do part, though for +``` +``` +some little time. It is sad to be deprived of +``` +``` +that society which is so delightful ; our life be- +``` +``` +comes tedious, being spent in an impatient ex- +``` +``` +pectation of the happy hour wherein we may +``` +``` +meet again. But if Death hath made the sep- +``` +``` +aration, as sometime or other it must, this occa- +``` +``` +sions a grief scarce to be paralleled by all the +``` +``` +misfortunes of human life, and wherein we pay +``` +``` +dear enough for the comforts of our friendship. +``` +``` +But oh how happy are those who have placed +``` +``` +their love on him who can never be absent from ``` -## pectationofthe happyhourwherein we may - ``` -meetagain. ButifDeathhathmadethesep- -aration,assometimeorotheritmust,thisocca- -sionsagriefscarcetobeparalleled byallthe -misfortunesofhumanlife,andwhereinwepay -dearenoughforthecomfortsofourfriendship. -Butohhowhappyare thosewho haveplaced -theirloveonhimwhocanneverbeabsentfrom them! They need but open their eyes, and -theyshalleverywherebeholdthetraces ofhis +``` +``` +they shall everywhere behold the traces of his +``` +``` presence and glory, and converse with him ``` -## whomtheirsoulloveth. And this makes the - ``` -darkestprison,orthe wildest desert, not only -supportable,butdelightfultothem. +whom their soul loveth. And this makes the ``` -THE DIVINE LOVE MAKES US PARTAKE OF +``` +darkest prison, or the wildest desert, not only +``` +``` +supportable, but delightful to them. +``` +## THE DIVINE LOVE MAKES US PARTAKE OF -## ANINFINITE HAPPINESS. +## AN INFINITE HAPPINESS. TN fine, a lover is miserable if the person -## whom he loveth be so. They whohave - +``` +whom he loveth be so. They who have +``` made an exchange of hearts by love, get -therebyaninterestin oneanother's happiness -andmisery: andthismakesloveatroublesome + +thereby an interest in one another's happiness + +and misery : and this makes love a troublesome + +``` 4 - - -50 The Life of God +``` +``` +passion when placed on earth. The most for- +``` +``` +tunate person hath grief enough to mar the +``` +``` +tranquiUity of his friend ; and it is hard to hold +``` +``` +out, when we are attacked on all hands, and +``` +``` +suffer not only in our own person but in anoth- +``` +``` +er's. But if God were the object of our love, +``` +``` +we should share in an infinite happiness, with- +``` +out any mixture or possibility of diminution ; ``` -passionwhenplacedonearth. Themostfor- -tunate person hath griefenough to mar the -tranquiUityofhisfriend; anditishardtohold -out,when we are attacked on all hands,and -suffernotonlyinourownpersonbutinanoth- -er's. ButifGodweretheobject ofourlove, -weshouldshareinaninfinitehappiness,with- -out any mixtureor possibilityof diminution; -weshouldrejoicetobehold the glor}"ofGod, -andreceivecomfortand pleasure from all the -praiseswherewithmenandangelsdoextolhim. -Itshoulddelightus beyond all expression, to -consider, that the beloved ofour souls is in, -finitelyhappyinhimself, andthatall his ene- -miescannotshakeorunsettle histhrone; that -our Godisintheheavens^anddothwhatsoever -hefleascth. -Behold,onwhatsurefoundationsbis happi- -nessisbuilt,whosesoul ispossessed withdi- -vinelove; whosewill istransformed into the -willofGod,andwhosegreatestdesireis,that +we should rejoice to behold the glor}" of God, ``` -## hisMakershould bepleased. Ohthepeace, +``` +and receive comfort and pleasure from all the +``` +praises wherewith men and angels do extol him. -therest,thesatisfactionthat attendeth such a -temperofmind! +``` +It should delight us beyond all expression, to +``` +consider, that the beloved of our souls is in, +finitely happy in himself, and that all his ene- -/;/ the SotilofMan. 51 +mies cannot shake or unsettle his throne ; that -## HETHAT LOVETH GOD FINDSSWEETNESS IN +our God is in the heavens^ and doth whatsoever -EVERYDISPENSATION. +he fleascth. + +``` +Behold, on what sure foundations bis happi- +``` +ness is built, whose soul is possessed with di- + +vine love ; whose will is transformed into the + +will of God, and whose greatest desire is, that + +his Maker should be pleased. Oh the peace, + +the rest, the satisfaction that attendeth such a + +temper of mind! + +## HE THAT LOVETH GOD FINDS SWEETNESS IN + +## EVERY DISPENSATION. + +T^T'HAT an infinite pleasure must it needs + +``` +be, thus, as it were, to lose ourselves +``` +in him, and, being swallowed up in the over- -T^T'HAT an infinite pleasuremust itneeds -be,thus, asitwere,to lose ourselves -inhim,and,being swallowed upin the over- coming sense of his goodness, to offer our- + selves a living sacrifice, always ascending -unto him in flames of loveI Never doth a + +unto him in flames of love I Never doth a + soul know what solid joy and substantial + pleasure is, till, once being weary of itself, + it renounces all property, gives itself up to -theauthorofitsbeing, andteelsitselfbecome -a hallowed anddevoted thing; and can say, -fromaninwardsenseandfeeling,Mybeloved -isjiime, (Iaccountall his interestmineown) -## and Iam his: I am content to be anything +the author of its being, and teels itself become + +a hallowed and devoted thing; and can say, + +from an inward sense and feeling, My beloved + +is jiime, (I account all his interest mine own) + +and I am his : I am content to be any thing ``` -for him, and carenot for myself, but that I +for him, and care not for myself, but that I ``` -## may servehim. A. personmoulded into this +may serve him. A. person moulded into this -temper,wouldfindpleasurein all thedispen- -sations ofprovidence. Temporal enjoyments +temper, would find pleasure in all the dispen- + +sations of providence. Temporal enjoyments + +``` would have another relish, when he should -taste thedivine goodness in them, and con- -siderthem as tokensoflove sentbyhisdear- - - -TheLife ofGod - -## est Lord and master. And chastisements, +``` +taste the divine goodness in them, and con- +``` +sider them as tokens of love sent by his dear- +``` +``` +est Lord and master. And chastisements, +``` ``` though they be not joyous but grievous, -would hereby lose their sting: the rod as -well as the staff would comfort him: he +``` +``` +would hereby lose their sting : the rod as +``` +``` +well as the staff would comfort him : he +``` +``` would snatch a kiss from the hand that was -smiting him, and gather sweetness fromthat -severity. Nay,hewouldrejoice,that though -God did notthewill ofsuchaworthless and -foolishcreatureashimself,yet hedidhisown -will,andaccomplishedhisowndesigns,which -areinfinitelymoreholyandwise. ``` ``` -THE DUTIES OF RELIGION ARE DELIGHTFUL -TO HIM. +smiting him, and gather sweetness from that ``` -## ^I^HEexercises ofreligion,which toothers +``` +severity. Nay, he would rejoice, that though +``` +``` +God did not the will of such a worthless and +``` +``` +foolish creature as himself, yet he did his own +``` +``` +will, and accomplished his own designs, which +``` +``` +are infinitely more holy and wise. +``` +## THE DUTIES OF RELIGION ARE DELIGHTFUL +## TO HIM. + +``` +^ I ^HE exercises of religion, which to others +``` ``` are insipid and tedious, do yield the +``` +``` highest pleasure and delight to souls pos- -sessedwith divine love. Theyrejoice when -they are calledtogo up to the houseofthe ``` -## Lo7'd, that they may see his -power and his +``` +sessed with divine love. They rejoice when +``` +``` +they are called to go up to the house of the +``` +``` +Lo7'd, that they may see his -power and his +``` +glory^ as they have formerly seen it in his -glory^ as they haveformerly seen it in his +``` sanctuary. They never think themselves so -happy as when, having retired from the - - ``` -/;/ the Soul of 3 fan. 53 +``` +happy as when, having retired from the ``` world, and gotten free from the noise and -hurryofaffau's,andsilencedalltheirclamor- -ous passions, (those troublesome guestswith- -in,) theyhave placed themselves in thepres- + +hurry of affau's, and silenced all their clamor- + +ous passions, (those troublesome guests with- + +in,) they have placed themselves in the pres- + ence of God, and entertain fellowship and -communionwith him. Thevdeligrht toadore -his perfections,andrecount hisfavors,and to + +communion with him. Thev deligrht to adore + +his perfections, and recount his favors, and to + protest their affection to him, and tell him a -thousand times that theylovehim;tolayout -their troubles orwants before him, and dis- + +thousand times that they love him ; to lay out + +their troubles or wants before him, and dis- + burden their hearts in his bosom. Repent- + ance itself is a delightful exercise, when it -floweth from the principle oflove: thereisa + +floweth from the principle of love : there is a + secret sweetness \A'hich accompanieth those + tears of remorse, those meltings and relent- + ings of a soul returning unto God, and la- -menting its formerunkindness. -The severitiesofa holylife,and that con- + +menting its former unkindness. + +``` +The severities of a holy life, and that con- +``` stant watch which we are obliged to keep + over our hearts and ways, are very trouble- + some to those who are overruled and acted -by.an externallaw,and have no lawin their + +by. an external law, and have no law in their + minds inclining them to the performance of -theirduty. Butwhere divine lovepossesseth -thesoul,itstandsassentineltokeepoutevery +their duty. But where divine love possesseth -54 The Life ofGod +the soul, it stands as sentinel to keep out every -## thing that may offend the beloved, and doth +thing that may offend the beloved, and doth disdainfully repulse those temptations which -assault it. Itcomplieth cheerfulh^ not only -with explicit commands, but with the most -secretnotices ofthebeloved's pleasure; and -is ingenious in discoveringwhatwill be most -grateful and acceptable unto him. It makes -mortification and self-denial change their -harsh anddreadful names,andbecome easy, -sweet, anddehghtfulthings. -## ButIfindthispartofmyletterswellbigger +assault it. It complieth cheerfulh^ not only + +with explicit commands, but with the most ``` -than I desi^jned: indeed who would not be -tempted todwell on so pleasant atheme? I -shall endeavorto compensate itbybrevityin -theotherpoints. +secret notices of the beloved's pleasure ; and +``` +is ingenious in discovering what will be most + +``` +grateful and acceptable unto him. It makes +``` +``` +mortification and self-denial change their +``` +``` +harsh and dreadful names, and become easy, +``` +``` +sweet, and dehghtful things. +``` +``` +But I find this part of my letter swell bigger +``` +``` +than I desi^jned : indeed who would not be +``` +``` +tempted to dwell on so pleasant a theme? I +``` +``` +shall endeavor to compensate it by brevity in +``` +``` +the other points. +``` ``` THE EXCELLE^XY OF CHARITY. - ``` -'T^HEnext branch of the divine life is an -universal charityandlove. Theexcel- +``` +'T^HE next branch of the divine life is an +``` +``` +universal charity and love. The excel- +``` +``` lency of this grace will be easily acknowl- +``` +``` edged. For what can be more noble and +``` +``` generous than a heart enlarged to embrace +``` +``` the whole world, whose wishes and designs ``` - -in the Soul ofMan. 55 - ``` are levelled at the good and welfare of the -universe,whichconsidereth everyman'sinter- ``` -## estas its own? Hewho loveth his neighbor - +``` +universe, which considereth every man's inter- +``` +``` +est as its own? He who loveth his neighbor +``` +``` as himself can never entertain any base or +``` +``` injurious thought, or be wanting in expres- -sions ofbounty: he had rathersufferathou- -sandwrongs,thanbeguiltyofone; andnever -accountshimself happy, but when some one +``` +``` +sions of bounty : he had rather suffer a thou- +``` +``` +sand wrongs, than be guilty of one ; and never +``` +``` +accounts himself happy, but when some one +``` +``` or other hath been benefited by him. The +``` +``` malice or ingratitude of men is not able to -resist his love: he overlooks their injuries, +``` +``` +resist his love : he overlooks their injuries, +``` and pities their folly, and overcomes their -evilwith good; and never designs anyother -revengeagainst his mostbitterand malicious -enemies,thantoputall theobligationshecan + +evil with good ; and never designs any other + +revenge against his most bitter and malicious + +enemies, than to put all the obligations he can + upon them, whether they will or not. Is it -anywonderthat suchapersonbe reverenced + +any wonder that such a person be reverenced + and admired, and accounted the darling of -mankind? Thisinward goodnessandbenig- -nityofspirit reflects acertain sweetness and + +mankind? This inward goodness and benig- + +nity of spirit reflects a certain sweetness and + serenity upon the very countenance, and + makes it amiable and lovely. It inspireth -the soulwith anoble resolution andcourage, + +the soul with a noble resolution and courage, + and makes it capable of enterprising and + effecting the highest things. Those heroic - -56 The Life ofGod - -actionswhichwe arewonttoreadwithadmi- -ration,haveforthemostpartbeen theeffects -ofthe love ofone's country, or of particular -friendships; and certainly a more extensive +``` +actions which we are wont to read with admi- +``` +``` +ration, have for the most part been the effects +``` +``` +of the love of one's country, or of particular +``` +``` +friendships ; and certainly a more extensive +``` +``` and universal affection must be much more -powerfuland efficacious. +``` +powerful and efficacious. -THE PLEASURE THATATTENDS CHARITY. +## THE PLEASURE THAT ATTENDS CHARITY. -A GAIN,ascharityflowsfrom anoble and -excellenttemper, so itis accompanied +``` +A GAIN, as charity flows from a noble and +``` +``` +excellent temper, so it is accompanied +``` with the greatest satisfaction and pleasure. -Itdelightsthesoultofeel itselfthusenlarged, -and tobe deliveredfrom those disquietingas -well as deformed passions, malice, hatred, -and envy; and become gentle, sweet, and -## benign. Had I m}^ choice ofall things that +It delights the soul to feel itself thus enlarged, + +and to be delivered from those disquieting as + +well as deformed passions, malice, hatred, + +and envy ; and become gentle, sweet, and + +benign. Had I m}^ choice of all things that might tend to my present felicity, I would -## pitch upon this, to have my heart possessed +pitch upon this, to have my heart possessed with the greatest kindness and aflection to- -## wards all menin the world. I am sure this +wards all men in the world. I am sure this -## would make me partakein all the happiness +would make me partake in all the happiness -ofothers; theirinward endowments,andout- -wardprosperity: every thing thatdid benefit +of others ; their inward endowments, and out- +ward prosperity : every thing that did benefit -in the SoulofMan. 57 - -## and advantage them, would afford me com- - -## fortand pleasure. Andthough I should fre- - +``` +in the Soul of Man. 57 +``` +``` +and advantage them, would afford me com- +``` +``` +fort and pleasure. And though I should fre- +``` +``` quenth^ meet with occasions of grief and -compassion,yetthereis a sweetness in com- +``` +``` +compassion, yet there is a sweetness in com- +``` +``` miseration, which makes it infinitely more -desirable thana stupidinsensibility: and the +``` +``` +desirable than a stupid insensibility : and the +``` +``` consideration of that infinite goodness and +``` +``` wisdom which governs the world, might re- +``` +``` press any excessive trouble for particular -calamities that happen in it: and thehopes -orpossibility ofmen's after-happiness, might +``` +``` +calamities that happen in it: and the hopes +``` +``` +or possibility of men's after-happiness, might +``` +``` moderate their sorrow for their present mis- +``` +``` fortunes. Certainly, next to the love and +``` +``` enjoyment of God, that ardent charity and -affectionwherewithblessed souls do embrace -one another, is justly to be reckoned asthe -greatest felicity of those regions above: and -didituniversallyprevailintheworld,itwould -anticipatethatblessedness,and makeus taste -ofthejoysofheavenuponearth. - - -58 The Life ofGod - ``` -THE EXCELLENCY OF PURITY. +``` +affection wherewith blessed souls do embrace +``` +``` +one another, is justly to be reckoned as the +``` +``` +greatest felicity of those regions above : and +``` +did it universally prevail in the world, it would + +anticipate that blessedness, and make us taste + +of the joys of heaven upon earth. + +## THE EXCELLENCY OF PURITY. + 'HPHAT which I named as a third branch -``` -## of rehgion, was purity: and you may ``` -remember I described it to consistin a con- +of rehgion, was purity : and you may +``` +remember I described it to consist in a con- + tempt of sensual pleasures, and resoluteness + to undergo those troubles and pains we -``` -## may meet with in the performance of our -## dut}^. Now, the naming of this may suffice +may meet with in the performance of our -``` -torecommend it asa most noble and excel- -lentquality. There isnoslaverysobase,as -``` -## thatwhereby aman becomes adrudgetohis +dut}^. Now, the naming of this may suffice + +to recommend it as a most noble and excel- + +lent quality. There is no slavery so base, as + +that whereby a man becomes a drudge to his + +own lusts ; nor any victory so glorious, as -``` -own lusts; nor any victory so glorious, as that which is obtained over them. Never -can that personbe capable ofanythingthat -isnobleandworth}',whoissunkin thegross -andfeculent pleasures ofsense,orbewitched -withthe lightand airygratificationsoffancy. -But the religious soul is of a more sublime -and divinetemper; itknowsit wasmadefor -higher things, and scorns to step aside one -footoutofthewayofholiness,fortheobtain- -inganyofthese. + ``` +can that person be capable of any thing that +``` +is noble and worth}', who is sunk in the gross -in the SoulofMan. 59 +``` +and feculent pleasures of sense, or bewitched +``` +``` +with the light and airy gratifications of fancy. +``` +``` +But the religious soul is of a more sublime +``` +``` +and divine temper ; it knows it was made for +``` +``` +higher things, and scorns to step aside one +``` +``` +foot out of the way of holiness, for the obtain- +``` +``` +ing any of these. +``` +## THE DELIGHT AFFORDED BY PURITY. -THE DELIGHTAFFORDED BY PURITY. +``` A ND this purity is accompanied with a -great deal of pleasure: whatsoever -defiles the soul disturbs it too; all impure +``` +``` +great deal of pleasure : whatsoever +``` +defiles the soul disturbs it too ; all impure + delights have a sting in them, and leave -smart andtrouble behind them. Excess and -intemperance, and all inordinatelusts, are so -much enemiestothe healthofthe body, and -the interestsof this present life, that a little -## consideration might oblige any rational man +smart and trouble behind them. Excess and + +intemperance, and all inordinate lusts, are so + +much enemies to the health of the body, and + +the interests of this present life, that a little + +consideration might oblige any rational man + +to forbear them on that very score : and if the -toforbear themon thatveryscore: andifthe religious person go higher, and do not only + abstain from noxious pleasures, but neglect -thosethatareinnocent,thisisnottobelooked -upon as any violentand uneasy restraint,but -asthe effectofbetterchoice,thattheirminds -are taken up in thepursuit of more sublime + +those that are innocent, this is not to be looked + +upon as any violent and uneasy restraint, but + +``` +as the effect of better choice, that their minds +``` +``` +are taken up in the pursuit of more sublime +``` +``` and refined delights, so that they cannot be - -## concerned in these. Anyperson that is en- - +``` +``` +concerned in these. Any person that is en- +``` ``` gaged in a violent and passionate affection, +``` +``` will easily forget his ordinary gratifications, +``` +``` will be little curious about his diet, or his +``` bodily ease, or the divertisements he was -``` -6o TheLife ofGod +wont to delic^ht in. No wonder then if souls -## wontto delic^htin. No wonderthen ifsouls +overpowered with divine love, despise inferior -overpoweredwithdivine love,despise inferior -pleasures,andbe almost readytogrudge the +pleasures, and be almost ready to grudge the -## bodyitsnecessaryattendanceforthe common +body its necessary attendance for the common + +accommodations of life, judging all these im- + +pertinent to their main happiness, and those ``` -accommodationsoflife,judging all theseim- -pertinent totheir main happiness, and those -higherenjoyments theyare pursuing. Asfor -the hardships theymeet with, they rejoice in -them, asopportunities to exercise and testify -theiraffection: andsince theyare abletodo -solitdeforGod,theyaregladofthe honorto -sufferforhim. +higher enjoyments they are pursuing. As for ``` -THEEXCELLENCY OF HUMILITY. +the hardships they meet with, they rejoice in -'T^HE last branch of religion is Juimility +``` +them, as opportunities to exercise and testify +``` +``` +their affection : and since they are able to do +``` +``` +so litde for God, they are glad of the honor to +``` +``` +suffer for him. +``` +## THE EXCELLENCY OF HUMILITY. + +## 'T^HE last branch of religion is Juimility ``` ; ``` ``` -and howeverto vulgarand carnal eyes +and however to vulgar and carnal eyes ``` -## thismayappearan abject,base,anddespica- - -## ble quality, yetreallythe soulofman is not - ``` -capable ofa higher and more noble endow- -ment. Itisasillyignorancethatbegetspride: -buthumilityarisesfromaneareracquaintance -with excellent things,which keeps menfrom -doatingon trifles,oradmiring themselvesbe- +this may appear an abject, base, and despica- +``` +``` +ble quality, yet really the soul of man is not +``` +``` +capable of a higher and more noble endow- +``` +``` +ment. It is a silly ignorance that begets pride : +``` +``` +but humility arises from a nearer acquaintance +``` +``` +with excellent things, which keeps men from +``` +``` +doating on trifles, or admiring themselves be- +``` +``` +cause of some pretty attainments. Noble and +``` +``` +well educated souls have no such high opinion +``` +``` +of riches, beauty, strength, and other such like +``` +``` +advantages, as to value themselves for them, +``` +``` +or despise those that want them : and as for +``` +``` +inward worth and real goodness, the sense they ``` - -in the Soul ofMan. 6i - ``` -causeofsomeprettyattainments. Nobleand -welleducatedsoulshavenosuchhighopinion -ofriches,beauty,strength,andothersuchlike -advantages, astovalue themselves for them, -or despise those thatwant them: and as for -inwardworthandrealgoodness,thesensethey have of the divine perfections makes them +``` +``` think very meanlv of any thing they have +``` +``` hitherto attained, and be still endeavorin