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Better than ever, we understand the heart","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","298.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":298.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","298.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":298.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"breaking impact of human activity on our natural world. It is estimated, for example, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","286.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":286.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"that 60% of animals have been wiped out since 1970.","dir":"ltr","width":"212.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","274.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":274.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"Higher temperatures and extreme weather events will cause ever more severe ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","262.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":262.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"harm to biodiversity and ecosystems and even greater species loss and extinction. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","250.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":250.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"And when we lose biodiversity, we lose resilience. Currently, natural ecosystems ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","238.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":238.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"absorb about half of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions. If we continue to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","226.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":226.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"degrade the natural world, we could lose completely the Earth’s ability to adapt to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","214.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":214.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"climate change.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","202.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":202.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"A passion for nature conservation and animal protection has driven much of my ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","190.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":190.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"foundation’s work over the past 20 years. Ultimately, however, the climate crisis is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","178.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":178.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"a humanitarian one. If business-as-usual continues, the impact on human beings ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","166.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":166.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"will be immeasurable. Water supplies will become more insecure. Sea level rise will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","154.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":154.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"profoundly impact islands, low-lying coastal areas, and river deltas. Small island ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","142.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":142.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"communities like those I visited in the South Pacific are already preparing for ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","130.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":130.17608642} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"migration to safer lands. Fatal floods, droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires are the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","118.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":118.1760788} {"page":5,"change":"none","str":"Climate Model: Foreword","dir":"ltr","width":"177.77","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","592.46"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":592.461792} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"viii","dir":"ltr","width":"11.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"new normal, and happening closer to home. An estimated 41 million Americans live ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"within a 100-year flood zone. Texas saw its third 500-year flood 3 years in a row.","dir":"ltr","width":"323.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Poor air quality is a public health emergency across the world and now the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"fourth-highest cause of death  – contributing to strokes, heart attacks, and lung ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"cancer – causing public unrest in countries like China and India, where the poorest ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"find themselves at the mercy of pollution from industrial facilities and the burning ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"of biomass. In states like Texas, Colorado, and North Dakota, communities are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"fighting back against gas drilling operations near playgrounds or soccer fields, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"where children breathe in poisonous gases.","dir":"ltr","width":"171.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"These health impacts are only part of the story. Climate change, as the US ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Pentagon notes, is a national security threat. In a 2017 report by the Environmental ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Justice Foundation, senior US military experts pointed to the likelihood of tens of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"millions of climate refugees displaced by extreme weather  – in a world already ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"struggling with a refugee crisis. We already know that many conflicts are driven by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"environmental factors and access to natural resources. The truth is that, where ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"ecosystems collapse, societies collapse too.","dir":"ltr","width":"173.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Politically, there has been a monumental failure to grasp the scale of this problem. ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Climate scientists still face disinformation campaigns and a press corps that often ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"draws a false equivalence between those who support the scientific consensus for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"human-caused climate change and those who do not. Surveys suggest that most ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Americans do not know a scientific consensus exists, and scientists like Michael ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Mann, who spoke to me for ","dir":"ltr","width":"113.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Before the Flood","dir":"ltr","width":"67.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","166.98","345.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":166.978302,"y":345.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":", face abuse for exposing the truth. As ","dir":"ltr","width":"153.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","234.44","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":234.43829345,"y":345.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"a result, scientific research programs, critical to better understanding and addressing ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"climate change, are often attacked or defunded.","dir":"ltr","width":"189.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Nevertheless, in the face of these challenges, some progress is being made. With ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"the growth of the environmental movement, public awareness of the climate crisis ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"has increased significantly. Governments and the private sector are beginning to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"ramp up their efforts. Renewable energy is booming. And the UN Sustainable ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Development Goals, ratified by 193 countries, now call for a halt to deforestation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"and land degradation by 2030. After decades of climate negotiations, the Paris ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Agreement now calls upon the world’s governments to keep warming “well below ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"2°C” while striving for 1.5°C.","dir":"ltr","width":"119.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"While we are beginning to move in the right direction, the reality is that these ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"efforts are simply not ambitious enough to address the climate crisis at scale. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"IPCC warns that to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, we must stay ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"below the 1.5 °C limit. But what does that mean in practical terms?","dir":"ltr","width":"268.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Determined to find solutions, my foundation supported a 2-year research program ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"led by a team of international climate and energy experts to develop a roadmap for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"how we can actually stay below this critical climate threshold. The findings, outlined ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"in this book, give cause for optimism. With a transition to 100% renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"by mid-century and a major land conservation and restoration effort, it is possible to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"stay below the 1.5 °C limit with technologies that are available right now. It will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":6,"change":"none","str":"Climate Model: Foreword","dir":"ltr","width":"89.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","296.14","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.13790893,"y":623.65319824} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"ix","dir":"ltr","width":"6.95","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","378.73","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":378.72891235,"y":623.65332031} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"a lot of work, but the costs will be far less than the $5 trillion per year governments ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"currently spend subsidizing the fossil fuel industries responsible for climate change.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"The climate model and energy transition pathways compiled in this book offer an ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"exciting, positive, and achievable vision of a better world in which we are no longer ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"dependent on fossil fuels and where the conservation and restoration of nature is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"treated as indispensable to our survival. This is not fantasy. This is science.","dir":"ltr","width":"299.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"Science is showing us the way forward, but you do not need to be a scientist to ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"understand that climate change is the defining issue of our time. If our world warms ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"past 1.5 °C, our way of life will profoundly change for the worse. Why not manage ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"the transition in a way that is orderly and equitable? Human beings caused this ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"problem, but with our vast knowledge and ingenuity, we can also fix it.","dir":"ltr","width":"283.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"We are resilient. We can adapt. We can change.","dir":"ltr","width":"188.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"Leonardo DiCaprio","dir":"ltr","width":"78.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","307.47","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":307.46829223,"y":441.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"Chairman of the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation","dir":"ltr","width":"193.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":441.15979003} {"page":7,"change":"none","str":"Climate Model: Foreword","dir":"ltr","width":"89.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"xi","dir":"ltr","width":"6.61","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","378.90","46.71"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":378.89880371,"y":46.70920181} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Contact Information","dir":"ltr","width":"141.36","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","592.46"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":592.461792} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Lead Author:","dir":"ltr","width":"57.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","430.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":430.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":" Dr Sven Teske","dir":"ltr","width":"60.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","111.42","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":111.41829681,"y":430.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"University of Technology Sydney – Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS-ISF)","dir":"ltr","width":"331.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","418.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":418.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Address: Building 10, 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW, Australia 2007/Telephone: ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","406.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":406.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"+61 2 9514 4786","dir":"ltr","width":"68.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","394.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":394.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/institute-sustainable-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","382.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":382.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"futures","dir":"ltr","width":"27.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","370.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85830688,"y":370.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Author:","dir":"ltr","width":"33.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.8583107,"y":340.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":" Dr. Sven Teske","dir":"ltr","width":"62.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","87.80","340.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":87.79830932,"y":340.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"E-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"123.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":328.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Chapters: 1, 2.2, 3.1, 3.2, 3.5, 3.6, 7, 8 ","dir":"ltr","width":"158.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.25","340.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.24830627,"y":340.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"(Power Sector analysis), 9, 10, 13","dir":"ltr","width":"134.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.25","328.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.24830627,"y":328.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Author:","dir":"ltr","width":"33.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.8583107,"y":316.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":" Prof. Dr. Damien Giurco","dir":"ltr","width":"101.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","87.80","316.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":87.79830932,"y":316.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"Chapters: 11, 13","dir":"ltr","width":"65.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.25","316.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.24830627,"y":316.17608642} {"page":8,"change":"none","str":"E-mail: 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{"page":9,"change":"none","str":" A/Prof. Dr. Malte Meinshausen","dir":"ltr","width":"127.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","87.80","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":87.7983017,"y":201.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Chapters: 2.1, 3.8, 4, 12, 13","dir":"ltr","width":"110.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.00","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.99830627,"y":201.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Affiliation: University of Melbourne","dir":"ltr","width":"145.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"E-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au/ ","dir":"ltr","width":"184.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Telephone: +61 3 90356760","dir":"ltr","width":"112.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Author:","dir":"ltr","width":"33.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":" Dr. Kate Dooley","dir":"ltr","width":"68.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","87.80","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":87.7983017,"y":153.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Chapters: 3.8, 4.1, 7","dir":"ltr","width":"80.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.00","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.99830627,"y":153.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Affiliation: University of Melbourne","dir":"ltr","width":"145.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"E-mail: kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au/ ","dir":"ltr","width":"154.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Telephone: +61 3 90356760","dir":"ltr","width":"112.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Editor:","dir":"ltr","width":"31.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":87.1597824} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":" Janine Miller","dir":"ltr","width":"55.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","84.97","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.96829986,"y":87.1597824} {"page":9,"change":"none","str":"Contact Information","dir":"ltr","width":"70.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.16","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.15890502,"y":623.65319824} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"xiii","dir":"ltr","width":"11.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","374.17","46.71"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":374.1729126,"y":46.70920181} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"137.89","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","592.46"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":592.461792} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","430.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":430.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"An overview of the motivations behind the writing of this book, the sci","dir":"ltr","width":"285.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.07","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.06829833,"y":430.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":430.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"entific background and context of the research. Brief outline of all methodologies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":418.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"used, followed by assumptions and the storyline of each scenario. Presentation of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","406.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":406.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"main results of the renewable energy resources assessment, transport scenario, long-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","394.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":394.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"term energy pathway, the power sector analysis, employment analysis and an assess","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","382.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":382.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","382.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":382.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"ment for required metals for renewable energy and storage technologies. Key results ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","370.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":370.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"of non-energy greenhouse mitigation scenarios which are developed in support of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","358.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":358.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"the energy scenario in order to achieve the 1.5 °C target. Concluding remarks and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","346.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":346.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"policy recommendations including graphs and tables.","dir":"ltr","width":"213.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","334.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":334.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"Introduction","dir":"ltr","width":"54.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":292.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global warming to well ","dir":"ltr","width":"274.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.13","292.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.12779998,"y":292.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 °C. To accom","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":280.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","280.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22979736,"y":280.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"plish this, countries have submitted ","dir":"ltr","width":"144.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":268.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"Intended Nationally Determined Contributions ","dir":"ltr","width":"190.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.90","268.18"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":197.89779663,"y":268.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"(INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate actions (Rogelj 2016). This research ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":256.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"aimed to develop practical pathways to achieve the Paris climate goals based on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":244.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"detailed bottom-up examination of the potential of the energy sector, in order to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":232.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"avoid reliance on net negative emissions later on.","dir":"ltr","width":"196.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":220.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"The study described in this book focuses on the ways in which humans produce ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","202.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85780334,"y":202.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"energy, because energy-related carbon dioxide (CO","dir":"ltr","width":"203.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","190.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":190.17608642} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","257.16","188.68"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":257.15948486,"y":188.67610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":") emissions are the main drivers ","dir":"ltr","width":"127.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","260.16","190.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.15948486,"y":190.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"of climate change. The analysis also considers the development pathways for non-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","178.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85948944,"y":178.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"energy-","dir":"ltr","width":"30.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","166.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85948944,"y":166.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"related emissions and mitigation measures for them because it is essential to ","dir":"ltr","width":"303.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","84.22","166.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.21949005,"y":166.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"address their contributions if we are to achieve the Paris climate change targets.","dir":"ltr","width":"317.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","154.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85948944,"y":154.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"State of Research—Climate","dir":"ltr","width":"119.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.18"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85948944,"y":136.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"Beyond reasonable doubt, climate change over the ","dir":"ltr","width":"209.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","179.50","136.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":179.49850463,"y":136.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"last 250  years has been driven by anthropogenic activities. In fact, the human-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":124.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"induced release of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere warms the planet ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":112.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"even more than is currently observed as climate change, but some of that greenhouse-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":100.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"gas-","dir":"ltr","width":"16.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","88.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":88.17610168} {"page":10,"change":"none","str":"induced warming is masked by the effect of aerosol emissions.","dir":"ltr","width":"250.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.47","88.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.46849822,"y":88.17610168} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"xiv","dir":"ltr","width":"10.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"Carbon dioxide emissions are so large that they are the dominant driver of ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"human-induced climate change. A single kilogram of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"228.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","282.24","583.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.24328613,"y":583.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" emitted will increase the ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","285.24","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":285.24328613,"y":585.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"64.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328125,"y":573.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","118.82","571.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.82260131,"y":571.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" concentration over hundreds or even thousands of years. Since the ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.82","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.82260131,"y":573.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86259841,"y":561.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"finding that cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"110.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86259841,"y":549.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","164.52","547.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.52250671,"y":547.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" emissions are roughly linearly related to temperature ","dir":"ltr","width":"221.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.52","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.52250671,"y":549.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"has shaped scientific and political debate. The remaining permissible CO","dir":"ltr","width":"287.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86251068,"y":537.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","341.04","535.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.03640747,"y":535.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.04","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.03640747,"y":537.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"that are consistent with a target temperature increase of 2  °C or 1.5  °C and their ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85641098,"y":525.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"comparison with remaining fossil fuel resources are of key interest.","dir":"ltr","width":"269.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85641098,"y":513.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concluded that beyond 2011, cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"316.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85640716,"y":501.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","499.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":499.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"emissions of roughly 1000 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"131.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":489.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","185.54","487.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.53970336,"y":487.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" are permissible for a “likely below 2.0 °C” target ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","188.50","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":188.50369262,"y":489.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"change, and approximately 400 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"153.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":477.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","207.20","475.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":207.20109558,"y":475.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" are permissible for a 1.5  °C target change. ","dir":"ltr","width":"178.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","210.17","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":210.1651001,"y":477.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"However, the recently published IPCC Special Report on the 1.5 °C target suggests ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":465.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"substantially higher carbon emissions of 1600 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"210.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":453.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","264.22","451.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.22280883,"y":451.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" will achieve a 2.0 °C change ","dir":"ltr","width":"121.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","267.19","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":267.1867981,"y":453.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"and 860 GtCO2 will achieve a 1.5 °C change, which must be reduced by a further 100 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":441.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"23.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":429.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","77.51","427.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.50789642,"y":427.65979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" to account for additional Earth system feedback over the twenty-","dir":"ltr","width":"256.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.47","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.47180175,"y":429.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"first century. ","dir":"ltr","width":"51.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","336.47","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.47180175,"y":429.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"One of the key reasons behind this difference is definitional: how far do we consider ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":417.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"that we are away from 1.5 °C warming? While that question seems simple, it is sur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":405.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18182373,"y":405.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"prisingly complex when the observational data on coverage, the internal variability ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":393.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"and the pre-industrial to early-industrial temperature differences are considered.","dir":"ltr","width":"314.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":381.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"This study does not resolve the differences in opinions about carbon budgets, but ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":369.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"it does provide emission pathways that are consistent with the 1.5 °C target increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":357.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"in the 1.5 °C Scenario, or with the “well below 2.0 °C” target increase in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":345.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"Scenario consistent with other scenarios in the literature and classified as such by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":333.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C.","dir":"ltr","width":"141.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":321.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"Global Trends in the Energy Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"149.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86180877,"y":303.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"In 2017, the ongoing trends continued: solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"178.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.62","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.62139892,"y":303.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"photovoltaics (PV) and wind power dominated the global market for new power ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":291.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"plants; the price of renewable energy technologies continued to decline; and fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":279.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"fuel prices remained low. A new benchmark was reached, in that the new renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":267.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"capacity began to compete favourably with existing fossil fuel power plants in some ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":255.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"markets. Electrification of the transport and heating sectors is gaining attention, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":243.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"although the amount of electrification is currently small, the use of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":231.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"technologies is expected to increase significantly.","dir":"ltr","width":"196.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":219.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"The growth of solar PV has been remarkable and is nearly double that of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86139678,"y":201.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"second-ranking wind power. The capacity of new solar PV in 2017 was greater than ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":189.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"the combined increases in the coal, gas and nuclear capacities. Renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":177.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"technologies achieved a global average generation share of 23% in the year 2015, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":165.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"compared with 18% in the year 2005. Storage is increasingly used in combination ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":153.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"with variable renewables as battery costs decline, and solar PV plus storage has ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":141.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"started to compete with gas peaking plants. However, bioenergy (including ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":129.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"traditional biomass) remains the leading renewable energy source in the heating ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":117.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"(buildings and industry) and transport sectors.","dir":"ltr","width":"183.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":105.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"Since 2013, global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO","dir":"ltr","width":"222.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86139678,"y":93.15979003} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","288.27","91.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":288.27371215,"y":91.65979766} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":") emissions from fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","291.27","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":291.27371215,"y":93.15979766} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"fuels have remained relatively flat. Early estimates based on preliminary data ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85371017,"y":81.15979766} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"suggest that this changed in 2017, with global CO","dir":"ltr","width":"200.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85371017,"y":69.15979766} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","253.99","67.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.98750305,"y":67.65979766} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":" emissions increasing by around ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.99","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.9874878,"y":69.15979766} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"1.4% (REN21-GSR 2018). These increased emissions were primarily attributable to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749053,"y":57.15980148} {"page":11,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"xv","dir":"ltr","width":"8.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.01","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.01010131,"y":623.65332031} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"increased coal consumption in China, which grew by 3.7% in 2017 after a 3-year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"decline. The increased Chinese consumption, as well as a steady growth of around ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"4% in India, is expected to lead to an upturn in global coal use, reversing the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"global decline from 2013 to 2016.","dir":"ltr","width":"136.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"In 2017, as in previous years, renewables saw the greatest increases in capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"in the power sector, whereas the growth of renewables in the heating, cooling and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"transport sectors was comparatively slow. Sector coupling—the interconnection of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"power, heating and transport and particularly the electrification of heating and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"transport—is gaining increasing attention as a means of increasing the uptake of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"renewables in the transport and thermal sectors. Sector coupling also allows the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"integration of large proportions of variable renewable energy, although this is still at ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"an early stage. For example, China is specifically encouraging the electrification of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"heating, manufacturing and transport in high-renewable areas, including promoting ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"the use of renewable electricity for heating to reduce the curtailment of wind, solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"PV and hydropower. Several US states are examining options for electrification, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"specifically to increase the overall renewable energy share.","dir":"ltr","width":"234.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Methodology for Developing Emission Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"205.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"The complete decarbonisation ","dir":"ltr","width":"122.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","265.30","399.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":265.29769897,"y":399.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"of the global energy supply requires entirely new technical, economic and policy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8577118,"y":387.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"frameworks for the electricity, heating and cooling sectors as well as for the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8577118,"y":375.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","375.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2177124,"y":375.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"port system. To develop a global plan, the authors combined various established ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8577118,"y":363.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"computer models:","dir":"ltr","width":"71.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8577118,"y":351.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8577118,"y":327.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW)","dir":"ltr","width":"173.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","327.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.8577118,"y":327.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":": This statistical method is used to ","dir":"ltr","width":"150.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.10","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.09971618,"y":327.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"complement the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"83.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8577118,"y":315.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","149.18","313.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.18449401,"y":313.65979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":" pathways with non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"99.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","152.18","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.18449401,"y":315.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","251.52","313.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.519104,"y":313.65979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":" regional emissions for relevant ","dir":"ltr","width":"134.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","254.52","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.519104,"y":315.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, based on a statistical analysis of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85910797,"y":303.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"large number (~700) of multi-gas emission pathways underlying the recent IPCC ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85910797,"y":291.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Fifth Assessment Report and the recently published IPCC Special Report on ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85910797,"y":279.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C.  The GQW method calculates the median non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"234.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85910797,"y":267.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","300.79","265.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":300.79431152,"y":265.65979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":" gas emission levels ","dir":"ltr","width":"85.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","303.79","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.79431152,"y":267.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"every 5 years—conditional on the energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"213.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85430908,"y":255.15979003} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","279.80","253.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.8039856,"y":253.6598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":" emission level percentile ","dir":"ltr","width":"105.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","282.80","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.8039856,"y":255.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"of the “source” pathway. This method is a further development under this ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":243.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"project—building on an earlier Equal Quantile Walk method—and is now better ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":231.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"able to capture the emission dynamics of low-mitigation pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"267.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":219.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85398864,"y":207.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Land-based sequestration design","dir":"ltr","width":"135.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","207.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85398864,"y":207.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":": A Monte Carlo analysis across temperate, ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","201.84","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.84298706,"y":207.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"boreal, subtropical and tropical regions has been performed based on various ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":195.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"literature-based estimates of sequestration rates, sequestration periods and areas ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":183.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"available for a number of sequestration options. This approach can be seen as a ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":171.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"quantified literature-based synthesis of the potential for land-based CO","dir":"ltr","width":"316.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85398864,"y":159.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","157.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":157.6598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"sequestration, which is not reliant on biomass plus sequestration and storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":147.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"(bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, BECCS).","dir":"ltr","width":"215.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":135.1598053} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":123.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Carbon cycle and climate modelling (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","123.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.86180877,"y":123.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Gas-Induced Climate Change, MAGICC)","dir":"ltr","width":"165.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","111.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.86180877,"y":111.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":": This study uses the MAGICC climate ","dir":"ltr","width":"156.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","230.92","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.92181396,"y":111.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"model, which also underlies the classification used by both the IPCC Fifth ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":99.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Assessment Report and the IPCC Special Report on 1.5  °C in terms of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":87.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"abilities of various scenarios to maintain the temperature change below 2 °C or ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","75.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":75.15979766} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C. MAGICC is constantly evolving, but its core goes back to the 1980s, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","63.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180877,"y":63.15980148} {"page":12,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"xvi","dir":"ltr","width":"10.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"it represents one of the most established reduced-complexity climate models in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"the international community.","dir":"ltr","width":"115.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"Renewable Resource Assessment [R]E-SPACE","dir":"ltr","width":"196.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":": RE-SPACE is based on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"129.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.32","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.31530761,"y":573.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach and provides maps of the solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"and wind potentials in space-constrained environments. GIS attempts to emulate ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"processes in the real world at a single point in time or over an extended period ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"(Goodchild 2005). The primary purpose of GIS mapping is to ascertain the ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy resources (primarily solar and wind) available in each region. ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"It also provides an overview of the existing electricity infrastructures for fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"fuel and renewable sources.","dir":"ltr","width":"110.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"Transport model (TRAEM)","dir":"ltr","width":"119.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":": The transport scenario model allows the ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","185.22","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.22329711,"y":477.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"representation of long-term transport developments in a consistent and transparent ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"way. The model disaggregates transport into a set of different modes and ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"calculates the final energy demand by multiplying each transport mode’s specific ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"transport demand with powertrain-specific energy demands, using a passenger ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"km (pkm) and tonne km (tkm) activity-based bottom-up approach.","dir":"ltr","width":"265.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"Energy system model (EM)","dir":"ltr","width":"114.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":": The energy system model (a long-term energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"209.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","180.59","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":180.59129333,"y":405.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"scenario model) is used as a mathematical accounting system for the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"sector. It helps to model the development of energy demands and supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"according to the development of drivers and energy intensities, energy potentials, ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"future costs, emission targets, specific fuel consumption and the physical flow ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"between processes. The data available significantly influence the model ","dir":"ltr","width":"326.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"architecture and approach. The energy system model is used in this study to ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"develop long-term scenarios for the energy system across all sectors (power, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"heat, transport and industry), without applying cost-optimization based on ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"uncertain cost assumptions. However, an ex-post analysis of costs and investments ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"shows the main economic effects of the pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"200.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"Power system models [R]E 24/7","dir":"ltr","width":"137.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":": Power system models simulate electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"187.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","203.02","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.01829528,"y":273.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"systems on an hourly basis with geographic resolution to assess the requirements ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"for infrastructure, such as the grid connections between different regions and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"electricity storage, depending on the demand profiles and power-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"characteristics (Teske 2015). High-penetration or renewable energy-only ","dir":"ltr","width":"327.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"scenarios will contain significant proportions of variable solar PV and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"power because they are inexpensive. Therefore, power system models are ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"required to assess the demand and supply patterns, the efficiency of power ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"generation and the resulting infrastructural needs. Meteorological data, typically ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"in 1 h steps, are required for the power-generation model, and historical solar and ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"wind data were used to calculate the possible renewable power generation. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"terms of demand, either historical demand curves were used, or if unavailable, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"demand curves were calculated based on assumptions of consumer behaviour in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"the use of electrical equipment and common electrical appliances. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"312.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","380.51","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":380.50830078,"y":117.1597824} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"provides an overview of the interaction between the energy- and GIS-based ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"models. The climate model is not directly linked with it but provided the carbon ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"budgets for the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"191.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":13,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"xvii","dir":"ltr","width":"13.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.00","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":371.99508666,"y":623.65332031} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"Output","dir":"ltr","width":"42.08","height":"12.84","transform":["-12.84","0.00","0.00","-12.84","358.87","115.03"],"fontName":"ZXJECP+WxxcwrPbwmqvLsfyjjHelveticaBold","x":358.86871337,"y":115.03379821} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"Resource model ([R]E SPACE)","dir":"ltr","width":"144.76","height":"9.98","transform":["0.00","9.98","-9.98","0.00","60.07","426.19"],"fontName":"ZXJECP+WxxcwrPbwmqvLsfyjjHelveticaBold","x":60.07249832,"y":426.18600463} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"GIS based renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.63","height":"8.67","transform":["0.00","8.67","-8.67","0.00","70.88","441.25"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ClsxfyFwlhkgKwwbqbHelvetica","x":70.87670135,"y":441.25201416} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"potentials based on weather & ","dir":"ltr","width":"118.97","height":"8.67","transform":["0.00","8.67","-8.67","0.00","81.27","439.08"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ClsxfyFwlhkgKwwbqbHelvetica","x":81.2749405,"y":439.07705688} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"land use data ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.43","height":"8.67","transform":["0.00","8.67","-8.67","0.00","91.67","471.35"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ClsxfyFwlhkgKwwbqbHelvetica","x":91.67317962,"y":471.34625244} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"Transport model (TRAEM)","dir":"ltr","width":"122.03","height":"9.85","transform":["0.00","9.85","-9.85","0.00","59.87","268.64"],"fontName":"ZXJECP+WxxcwrPbwmqvLsfyjjHelveticaBold","x":59.87480163,"y":268.6369934} {"page":14,"change":"none","str":"freight & passenger transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.15","height":"8.67","transform":["0.00","8.67","-8.67","0.00","70.54","269.75"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ClsxfyFwlhkgKwwbqbHelvetica","x":70.53630065,"y":269.74899291} 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Now that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"methodology has been outlined, the next sections present the results and assumptions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"for the nonenergy GHG mitigation scenarios, followed by the energy sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"Nonenergy-GHG Mitigation Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"175.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":531.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"The most important sequestration ","dir":"ltr","width":"158.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.06","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.05929565,"y":531.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"measure could be large-scale reforestation, particularly in the subtropics and tropics ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":519.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"(see yellow pathways in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"115.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":507.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","169.17","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":169.16929626,"y":507.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"). The second most important pathway in terms of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"213.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.17","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.16929626,"y":507.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"amount of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"56.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":495.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","110.10","493.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.0990982,"y":493.65979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":" sequestered is the sustainable use of existing forests, which basically ","dir":"ltr","width":"274.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.10","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.0990982,"y":495.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"means reduced logging within those forests. In subtropical, temperate and boreal ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85910034,"y":483.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"regions, this could provide substantial additional carbon uptake over time. 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The “forest ecosystem restoration” pathway is also important, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85910034,"y":435.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"which basically assumes a reduction in logging rates to zero in a fraction of forests.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85910034,"y":423.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"Overall, the median assumed sequestration pathways, shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"282.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85910034,"y":405.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.47","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.4690857,"y":405.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":", would ","dir":"ltr","width":"34.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","354.47","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":354.4690857,"y":405.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"result in the sequestration of 151.9  GtC.  This is approximately equivalent to all ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8590889,"y":393.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"historical land-use-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"122.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8590889,"y":381.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","176.01","379.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.0059967,"y":379.65979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":" emissions and indicates the substantial challenges ","dir":"ltr","width":"209.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","179.01","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":179.0059967,"y":381.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"that accompany these sequestration pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"183.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":369.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"Given the competing forms of land use throughout the world today, the challenge of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":357.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"reversing overall terrestrial carbon stocks back to pre-industrial levels cannot be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":345.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"underestimated. There would be significant benefits, but also risks, if this ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":333.15979003} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2000","dir":"ltr","width":"16.85","height":"7.57","transform":["7.57","0.00","0.00","7.57","99.61","87.79"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ScnjyxDmwkqlBxrnqxHelvetica","x":99.6088028,"y":87.79329681} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"16.85","height":"7.57","transform":["7.57","0.00","0.00","7.57","181.79","87.79"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ScnjyxDmwkqlBxrnqxHelvetica","x":181.7932129,"y":87.79329681} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"2100","dir":"ltr","width":"16.85","height":"7.57","transform":["7.57","0.00","0.00","7.57","263.98","87.79"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ScnjyxDmwkqlBxrnqxHelvetica","x":263.97763061,"y":87.79329681} 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","dir":"ltr","width":"31.32","height":"6.06","transform":["6.06","0.00","0.00","6.06","113.28","237.81"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ScnjyxDmwkqlBxrnqxHelvetica","x":113.27760314,"y":237.81344604} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"and tropics)","dir":"ltr","width":"31.66","height":"6.06","transform":["6.06","0.00","0.00","6.06","113.28","230.54"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+ScnjyxDmwkqlBxrnqxHelvetica","x":113.27760314,"y":230.54144287} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 2","dir":"ltr","width":"20.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","68.20"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":68.19879913} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"Sequestration pathways—annual sequestration over time","dir":"ltr","width":"192.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","79.77","68.20"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.77480316,"y":68.19879913} {"page":15,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.30130004,"y":623.65679931} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"xix","dir":"ltr","width":"11.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","374.28","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":374.28079223,"y":623.65332031} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"sequestration option were to be used ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"instead","dir":"ltr","width":"28.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.85","597.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":206.84829711,"y":597.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":" of mitigation. However, the benefits ","dir":"ltr","width":"153.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.74","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.7382965,"y":597.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"are clearly manifold, ranging from biodiversity protection, reduced erosion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"improved local climates, protection from wind and potentially reduced air pollution.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"Assumptions for Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"116.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"Scenario studies cannot predict the future. Instead, ","dir":"ltr","width":"213.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","175.96","555.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.95629882,"y":555.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"scenarios describe what is required for a pathway that will limit warming to a certain ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":543.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"level and that is feasible in terms of technology implementation and investment. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":531.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios also allow us to explore the possible effects of transition processes, such ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":519.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"as supply costs and emissions. The energy demand and supply scenarios described ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":507.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"in this study have been constructed based on information about current energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":495.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"structures and today’s knowledge of energy resources and the costs involved in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":483.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"deploying them. As far as possible, the study also takes into account potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":471.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"regional constraints and preferences.","dir":"ltr","width":"146.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":459.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"The energy modelling used primarily aims to generate transparent and coherent ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85630035,"y":441.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"scenarios, ambitious but still plausible storylines, out of several possible techno-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":429.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"economic pathways. Knowledge integration is the core of this approach because we ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":417.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"must consider different technical, economic, environmental and societal factors. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":405.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"Scenario modelling follows a hybrid bottom-up/top-down approach, with no ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":393.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"objective cost-optimization functions. The analysis considers key technologies for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":381.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"successful energy transition and focuses on the role and potential utility of efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":369.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"measures and renewable energies. Wind and solar energies have the highest ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":357.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"economic potential and dominate the pathways on the supply side. However, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":345.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"variable renewable power from wind and PV remains limited to a maximum of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":333.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"65%, because sufficient secured capacity must always be maintained in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":321.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"electricity system. Therefore, we also consider concentrating solar power (CSP) ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":309.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"with high-temperature heat storage as a solar option that promises large-scale ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":297.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"dispatchable and secured power generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"174.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":285.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario):","dir":"ltr","width":"172.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85630035,"y":267.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"The reference scenario only takes into ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","232.20","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.19509887,"y":267.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"account existing international energy and environmental policies and is based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":255.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (IEA 2017). Its ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":243.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"assumptions include, for example, continuing progress in electricity and gas market ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":231.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"reforms, the liberalization of cross-border energy trade and recent policies designed ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":219.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"to combat environmental pollution. The scenario does not include additional policies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":207.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"to reduce GHG emissions. Because the IEA’s projections only extend to 2040, we ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":195.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"extrapolate their key macroeconomic and energy indicators forward to 2050. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":183.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"provides a baseline for comparison with the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"291.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":171.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C Scenario:","dir":"ltr","width":"83.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85509872,"y":147.15979003} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"The first alternative scenario aims for an ambitious reduction ","dir":"ltr","width":"244.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.77","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.76849365,"y":147.1598053} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"in GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and a global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"261.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85849,"y":135.1598053} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","315.80","133.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.80041503,"y":133.6598053} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":" emission budget ","dir":"ltr","width":"68.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","318.80","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.80041503,"y":135.1598053} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"of around 590 Gt between 2015 and 2050. This scenario is close to the assumptions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":123.15981292} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"and results of the Advanced E[R] scenario published in 2015 by Greenpeace (Teske ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":111.15979766} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"et  al. 2015). However, it includes an updated base year, more coherent regional ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":99.15979766} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"developments in energy intensity, and reconsidered trajectories and shares of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":87.15979766} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"deployment of renewable energy systems. Compared with the 1.5 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":75.15979766} {"page":16,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"xx","dir":"ltr","width":"8.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario allows for some delays due to political, economic and societal pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22531127,"y":597.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"cesses and stakeholders.","dir":"ltr","width":"96.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5  °C Scenario:","dir":"ltr","width":"89.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"The second alternative scenario aims to achieve a global ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.88","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.88220214,"y":561.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"74.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8622017,"y":549.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","128.03","547.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.03289794,"y":547.65979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":" emission budget of around 450 Gt, accumulated between 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"257.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","131.03","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":131.03289794,"y":549.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"and 2050. The 1.5  °C Scenario requires immediate action to realize all available ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":537.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"options. It is a technical pathway, not a political prognosis. It refers to technically ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":525.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"possible measures and options without taking into account societal barriers. ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":513.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency and renewable potentials need to be deployed even more quickly than in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":501.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0  °C Scenario, and avoiding inefficient technologies and behaviours is an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":489.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"essential strategy for developing regions in this scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"226.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":477.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"Global Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"75.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86289978,"y":453.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"Transport emissions have increased at a rapid rate in recent ","dir":"ltr","width":"253.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","135.63","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.63059997,"y":453.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"decades and accounted for 21% of total anthropogenic CO","dir":"ltr","width":"233.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":441.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","287.50","439.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.50338745,"y":439.65979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":" emissions in 2015. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","290.50","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.50338745,"y":441.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"reason for this steady increase in emissions is that passenger and freight transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":429.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"activities are increasing in all world regions, and there is currently no sign that these ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":417.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"increases will slow in the near future. The increasing demand for energy for transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":405.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"has so far been predominantly met by GHG-emitting fossil fuels. Although (battery) ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":393.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"electric mobility has recently surged considerably, it has done so from a very low ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":381.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"base, which is why in terms of total numbers, electricity remains an energy carrier ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":369.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"with a relatively minor role in the transport sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"200.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":357.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"The key results of our transport modelling demonstrate that meeting the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","339.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8533783,"y":339.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, and especially the 1.5  °C Scenario, will require profound measures in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":327.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"terms of rapid powertrain electrification and the use of biofuels and synthetically ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":315.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"produced fuels to shift transport performance to more efficient modes. This must be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":303.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"accompanied by a general limitation of further pkm and tkm growth in the OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":291.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"countries.","dir":"ltr","width":"39.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":279.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"The ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8533783,"y":267.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"5.0  °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"65.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","84.86","267.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":84.86338043,"y":267.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":" follows the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"238.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.50","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.50437927,"y":267.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"until 2040, with extrapolation to 2050. Only a minor increase in electrification over ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":255.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"all transport modes is assumed, with passenger cars and buses increasing their ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":243.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"electric vehicle (EV) shares. For example, this study projects a share of 30% for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":231.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in China by 2050  in response to the foreseeable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":219.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"legislation and technological advancement in that country, whereas for the world car ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":207.15979003} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"fleet, the share of BEVs is projected to increase to only around 10%. Growth in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":195.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"shares of electric powertrains and two- and three-wheel vehicles in the commercial ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":183.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"road vehicle fleet will be small, as will the rise in further rail electrification. Aviation ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":171.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"and navigation (shipping) are assumed to remain fully dependent on conventional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":159.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"kerosene and diesel, respectively.","dir":"ltr","width":"132.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":147.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8533783,"y":135.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"64.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.76","135.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":91.76338195,"y":135.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":" minimal progress in electrification until 2020 will occur, ","dir":"ltr","width":"232.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","155.85","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.8453827,"y":135.15977478} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"whereas a significant increase in electrification of the transport sector between 2020 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","123.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":123.1597824} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"and 2030 is projected. This will occur first in OECD regions, followed by emerging ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":111.1597824} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"economies and finally in developing countries. Battery-driven electric passenger ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":99.1597824} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"cars are projected to achieve shares of between 21% and 30%, whereas heavy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":87.1597824} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"commercial electric vehicles and buses could achieve even higher shares of between ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","75.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":75.1597824} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"28% and 52% by 2030. This uptake will require a massive build-up of battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","63.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":63.1597786} {"page":17,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"xxi","dir":"ltr","width":"11.45","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","374.26","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":374.25619506,"y":623.65332031} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"production capacity in coming years. Two- and three-wheel vehicles—mainly used ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":435.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"in Asia and Africa—will be nearly completely electrified (batteries and fuel cells) ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"by 2030. Looking ahead to 2050, 60–70% of buses and heavy trucks will become ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"(battery-driven) electric, and fuel-cell electric vehicles will increase their market ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"share to around 37%. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, developing countries in Africa and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"countries in the oil-producing countries of the Middle East will remain predominantly ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":375.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"dependent on internal combustion engines, using bio- or synthetic-based fuels.","dir":"ltr","width":"313.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","351.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":351.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"64.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.69","351.37"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":91.68830108,"y":351.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":", an earlier and more rapid increase in electric powertrain ","dir":"ltr","width":"232.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","155.69","351.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.68829345,"y":351.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"penetration is required, with the OECD regions at the forefront. The emerging eco-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"nomic regions must also electrify more rapidly than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. On a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"global level, internal combustion engines will be almost entirely phased out by 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"in both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. 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We project an increase in annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"efficiency of 0.5–1% in terms of MJ/tonnes km or MJ/passenger km, depending on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.37"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.37469482} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"the transport mode and region. 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car fleet in the 2  °C Scenario (left) and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"307.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","80.67","475.76"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.66729736,"y":475.7583895800001} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"Scenario (right)","dir":"ltr","width":"53.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","465.76"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.7623873800001} {"page":18,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.6583834800001} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"xxii","dir":"ltr","width":"13.99","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"transport performance until 2050 are extrapolated for the 5.0 °C Scenario. 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{"page":19,"change":"none","str":"2045","dir":"ltr","width":"11.80","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","196.28","277.89"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":196.27885437,"y":277.89401245} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"11.80","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","216.56","277.89"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":216.5550232,"y":277.89401245} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Freight Train","dir":"ltr","width":"30.09","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","202.42","111.13"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":202.41530227999996,"y":111.12729668} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Truck","dir":"ltr","width":"13.27","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","256.78","111.51"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":256.78219604,"y":111.50640106} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Passenger Train","dir":"ltr","width":"38.94","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","106.96","122.96"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":106.96130371,"y":122.95729827} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Aviation (Domestic)","dir":"ltr","width":"46.01","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","170.18","123.14"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":170.18370056,"y":123.1377716} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Passenger Car","dir":"ltr","width":"35.40","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","237.49","123.15"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":237.49317932,"y":123.14837646} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Bus","dir":"ltr","width":"9.15","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","297.46","123.15"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":297.4618225,"y":123.14837646} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"2- & 3-Wheeler","dir":"ltr","width":"35.69","height":"5.31","transform":["5.31","0.00","0.00","5.31","330.05","123.34"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+YcbtjdSnjpvtVldmttHelvetica","x":330.05233764,"y":123.3394699} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 4","dir":"ltr","width":"20.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.77","92.21"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.7657013,"y":92.20600128} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Relative growth in world transport demand (2015, 100% pkm/tkm) in the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"307.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","80.13","92.21"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.13269805,"y":92.20600128} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"71.39","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.77","82.21"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.7657013,"y":82.20999908} {"page":19,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.30218505,"y":623.66003417} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"xxiii","dir":"ltr","width":"16.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","369.18","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.18170166,"y":623.65332031} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Global Renewable Energy Potential","dir":"ltr","width":"151.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"To develop the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","211.38","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":211.37680053,"y":597.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"the economic renewable energy potential in a space-constrained environment was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":585.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"analysed. Land is a scarce resource. The use of land for nature conservation, agri","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":573.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18078613,"y":573.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"cultural production, residential areas and industry, as well as for infrastructure such ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":561.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"as roads and all aspects of human settlement, limits the amount of land available for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":549.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"utility-scale solar and wind projects. Furthermore, solar and wind generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":537.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"requires favourable climatic conditions, so not all available areas are suitable for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":525.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"renewable power generation. To assess the renewable energy potential based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":513.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"area available, all scenario-relevant regions and subregions were analysed with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":501.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"[R]E-SPACE methodology to quantify the available land area in square kilometres ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":489.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"with a defined set of constraints:","dir":"ltr","width":"129.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":477.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":453.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Residential and urban settlements","dir":"ltr","width":"134.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85679626,"y":453.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":441.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Infrastructure for transport (e.g. rail, roads)","dir":"ltr","width":"172.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85679626,"y":441.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":429.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Industrial areas","dir":"ltr","width":"61.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85679626,"y":429.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":417.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Intensive agricultural production land","dir":"ltr","width":"150.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85679626,"y":417.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":405.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Nature conservation areas and national parks","dir":"ltr","width":"179.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85679626,"y":405.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85681152,"y":393.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Wetlands and swamps","dir":"ltr","width":"88.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85681152,"y":393.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"XUKSAT+NlvnkgLrrxstVblqlqTimes-Roman","x":53.85681152,"y":381.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Closed grasslands (as the land-use type)","dir":"ltr","width":"160.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85681152,"y":381.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"In addition to this spatial analysis, the remaining available land areas were cor","dir":"ltr","width":"316.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85681152,"y":363.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17681884,"y":363.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"related with the available solar and wind resources. For CSP, a minimum solar radi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":351.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","351.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13580322,"y":351.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"ation of 2000 kilowatt hours per square meter and year (kWh/m","dir":"ltr","width":"258.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85680007,"y":339.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","312.23","342.49"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":312.23040771,"y":342.48968505} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":" year) is assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"73.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.23","339.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.23040771,"y":339.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"to be the minimum deployment criterion, whereas the onshore wind potential under ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":327.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"an average annual wind speed of 5 m/s has been omitted.","dir":"ltr","width":"227.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":315.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C Scenario utilizes only a fraction of the available economic potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86042022,"y":303.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"of the assumed suitable land for utility-scale solar PV and CSP plants. This estimate ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":291.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"does not include solar PV rooftop systems, which have significant additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":279.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"potential. India has the highest solar utilization rate of 8.5%, followed by Europe ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":267.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"and the Middle East, each of which utilizes around 5%. Onshore wind potential has ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":255.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"been utilized to a larger extent than solar potential. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, space-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":243.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"constrained India will utilize about half of all the onshore wind energy utilized, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":231.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"followed by Europe, which will utilize one fifth. This wind potential excludes ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":219.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"offshore wind, which has significant potential, but mapping the offshore wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":207.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"potential was beyond the scope of this analysis.","dir":"ltr","width":"189.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":195.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5  °C Scenario is based on the accelerated deployment of all renewables ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86042022,"y":183.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"and the more ambitions implementation of efficiency measures. Thus, the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":171.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"installed capacity of solar and wind power plants by 2050 is not necessarily larger ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":159.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"than it is in the 2.0  °C Scenario, and the utilization rate is in the same order of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":147.15979003} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"magnitude. The increased deployment of renewable capacity in the OECD Pacific ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":135.15977478} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"(Australia), the Middle East and Africa will be due to the production of synthetic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":123.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"bunker fuels based on hydrogen or synthetic fuels (","dir":"ltr","width":"211.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":111.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"synfuels","dir":"ltr","width":"32.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","265.03","111.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":265.03042602,"y":111.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":") to supply the global ","dir":"ltr","width":"91.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","297.25","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":297.25042724,"y":111.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"transport energy for international shipping and aviation.","dir":"ltr","width":"223.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":99.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Key results of the global long-term energy scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"221.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","87.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":65.86042022,"y":87.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":" show that the efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"100.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.60","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.60043334,"y":87.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"and uptake of renewable energy are two sides of the same coin. All sectors, including ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86042022,"y":75.1597824} {"page":20,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"xxiv","dir":"ltr","width":"15.57","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"transport, industry and all commercial and residential buildings, must use energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"efficiently and from a huge range of renewable energy technologies. Compared with ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0  °C Scenario, which was defined using assumptions from the IEA, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios require more stringent efficiency levels. The 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"involves the even faster implementation of efficiency measures than in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Scenario and the decelerated growth of energy services in all regions, in order to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"avoid a further strong increase in fossil fuel use after 2020.","dir":"ltr","width":"235.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Global energy intensity","dir":"ltr","width":"93.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":" will decline from 2.4 MJ/US$GDP in 2015 to 1.25 MJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"225.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","159.83","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.82829284,"y":513.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"US$GDP in 2050 in the 5.0 °C Scenario compared with 0.65 MJ/US$GDP in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and 0.59 MJ/US$GDP in the 1.5 °C Scenario. This is a result of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"estimated power, heat and fuel demands for all sectors, with more stringent efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"levels in the alternative scenarios than in the 5.0  °C case. It reflects a further ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"decoupling of the energy demand and gross domestic product (GDP) growth as a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"prerequisite for the rapid decarbonisation of the global energy system.","dir":"ltr","width":"280.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Total final energy demand","dir":"ltr","width":"104.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":" is estimated based on assumptions about the demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"217.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.47","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.4683075,"y":429.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"drivers, specific energy consumption and the development of energy services in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"each region. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the global energy demand will increase by 57% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"from 342 EJ/year in 2015 to 537 EJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"energy will be 19% lower than the current consumption and will reach 278 EJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario will be 253 EJ, 26% below ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"the 2015 demand, and, in 2050, will be 9% lower than in the 2.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"309.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Global electricity demand","dir":"ltr","width":"104.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":" will significantly increase in the alternative scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"217.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.49","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.4882965,"y":345.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"due to the electrification of the transport and heating sectors, which will replace ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"fuels, but will also be due to a moderate increase in the electricity demand of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"“classical” electrical devices on a global level. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"demand for heating will be about 12,600 TWh/year from electric heaters and heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"pumps, and, in the transport sector, there will be an increase of about 23,400 TWh/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"year due to electric mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"high-","dir":"ltr","width":"21.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"temperature process heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels for transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","74.97","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":74.96829986,"y":261.15979003} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"will add an additional power demand of 18,800 TWh/year. The gross power demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"will thus rise from 24,300 TWh/year in 2015 to 65,900 TWh/year in 2050  in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, 34% higher than in the 5.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"gross electricity demand will increase to a maximum of 65,300 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"330.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Global electricity generation","dir":"ltr","width":"115.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","201.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":" from renewable energy sources will reach 100% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"206.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","180.93","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":180.92730712,"y":201.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"2050  in the alternative scenarios. “New” renewables—mainly wind, solar and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"geothermal energy—will contribute 83% of the total electricity generated. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"contribution of renewable electricity to total production will be 62% by 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"88% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 9500 GW by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"2030 and 25,600  GW by 2050. The proportion of electricity generated from ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"renewables in 2030  in the 1.5  °C Scenario is assumed to be 73%. The 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Scenario will have a generation capacity of renewable energy of about 25,700 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"32.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and PV to 7850  GW and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"12,300 GW, respectively, will be complemented by the generation of up to 2060 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"of solar thermal energy as well as limited biomass-derived (770 GW), geothermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":21,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"xxv","dir":"ltr","width":"12.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.57","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.56549072,"y":623.65332031} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"(560 GW) and ocean-derived energy (around 500 GW) in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will lead to the generation of high proportions (38% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"and 46%, respectively) of energy from variable power sources (PV, wind and ocean) ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"by 2030, which will increase to 64% and 65%, respectively, by 2050. This will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"require a significant change in how the power system is operated. The main findings ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"of the power sector analysis are summarized in the section below.","dir":"ltr","width":"261.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Calculated average electricity-generation costs","dir":"ltr","width":"190.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":" in 2015 (referring to full costs) ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.81","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.81130981,"y":525.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"were around 6 ct/kWh. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, these generation costs will increase, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"assuming rising CO","dir":"ltr","width":"82.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","136.82","499.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":136.81530761,"y":499.65979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":" emission costs in the future, until 2050, when they reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"249.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","139.82","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.81530761,"y":501.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"10.6 ct/kWh. The generation costs will increase in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":489.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"until 2030, when they will reach 9 ct/kWh, and then drop to 7 ct/kWh by 2050. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":477.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"both alternative scenarios, the generation costs will be around 3.5  ct/kWh lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":465.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"than in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 2050. Note that these estimates of generation costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":453.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":441.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"124.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":429.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Total electricity supply costs","dir":"ltr","width":"115.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85530853,"y":417.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":" in the 5.0 °C Scenario will increase from today’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"206.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","181.79","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.78530883,"y":417.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"$1560 billion/year to more than $5 500 billion/year in 2050, due to the growth in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":405.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"demand and increasing fossil fuel prices. In both alternative scenarios, the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":393.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"supply costs will be $5050 billion/year in 2050, about 8% lower than in the 5.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":381.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":369.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Global investment in power generation","dir":"ltr","width":"160.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85530853,"y":357.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":" between 2015 and 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.10","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.10430908,"y":357.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Scenario will be around $49,000 billion, which will include additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":345.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"to produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels and the plant replacement costs at the end ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":333.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approximately $1360 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":321.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"per year on average, which is $28,600  billion more than in the 5.0  °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":309.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"($20,400  billion). An investment of around $51,000  billion for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":297.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario ($1420 billion per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":285.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"year on average). In both alternative scenarios, the world will shift almost 95% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":273.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"its total energy investment to renewables and cogeneration.","dir":"ltr","width":"236.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":261.15979003} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Fuel Cost Savings","dir":"ltr","width":"72.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85530853,"y":243.15977478} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs other than biomass, ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","132.16","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.15719604,"y":243.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"the cumulative savings in fuel cost in the 2.0  °C Scenario will reach a total of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":231.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"$26,300 billion in 2050, equivalent to $730 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":219.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"costs in the 2.0 °C Scenario will be equivalent to 90% of the energy investments in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":207.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0  °C Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5  °C Scenario will sum to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":195.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"$28,800 billion or $800 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"160.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":183.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Final energy demand for heating","dir":"ltr","width":"134.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85720062,"y":165.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":" will increase by 59% in the 5.0  °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","200.61","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.607193,"y":165.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"from 151 EJ/year in 2015 to around 240 EJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":153.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 36% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":141.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, relative to that in the 5.0 °C case, and by 40% in the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"316.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":129.1598053} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Global Heat Supply","dir":"ltr","width":"80.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85720062,"y":111.15979766} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"In 2015, renewables supplied around 20% of the final global ","dir":"ltr","width":"248.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","140.20","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.19520568,"y":111.15979766} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"energy demand for heating, mainly from biomass. Renewable energy will provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85520935,"y":99.15979766} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"42% of the world’s total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 56% in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85520935,"y":87.15979766} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario. In both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85520935,"y":75.15979766} {"page":22,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"xxvi","dir":"ltr","width":"15.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"demand in 2050. This will include the direct use of electricity for heating, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"will increase by a factor of 4.2–4.5 between 2015 and 2050 and will constitute a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"final share of 26% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 30% in the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"327.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Estimated investments in renewable heating technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"227.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","555.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":" to 2050 will amount to ","dir":"ltr","width":"94.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","292.87","555.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":292.87231445,"y":555.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"more than $13,200 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments for plant ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"replacement after their economic lifetimes)—approximately $368 billion per year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"The largest share of investment is assumed to be for heat pumps (around ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"$5700  billion), followed by solar collectors and geothermal heat use. The 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technologies. However, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0  °C Scenario) will result in a lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"average annual investment of around $344 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"234.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector","dir":"ltr","width":"154.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","459.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":459.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":" will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario from ","dir":"ltr","width":"168.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","219.87","459.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.87330627,"y":459.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"around 97 EJ/year in 2015 by 50% to 146 EJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"assumed changes in technical, structural and behavioural factors will reduce this by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":435.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"66% (96  EJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0  °C Scenario. Additional modal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"shifts, technological changes and a reduction in the transport demand will lead to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 74% (or 108 EJ/year) in 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"compared with the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"124.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Transport Energy Supply","dir":"ltr","width":"100.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 12% (2700 TWh/year) ","dir":"ltr","width":"227.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","160.45","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.44569396,"y":369.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and, in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":357.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"this share will be 47% (6500 TWh/year). In 2050, around 8430 PJ/year of hydrogen ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":345.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"will be used as a complementary renewable option in the transport sector. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":333.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C Scenario, the annual electricity demand will be about 5200  TWh in 2050. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":321.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5  °C Scenario also assumes a hydrogen demand of 6850  PJ/year by 2050. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":309.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use will be limited to a maximum of around 12,000 PJ/year in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":297.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":285.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"introduced, with a maximum amount of 5820 PJ/year in 2050. Because of the lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":273.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"overall energy demand in transport, biofuel use will decrease in the 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":261.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"to a maximum of 10,000 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":249.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"to 6300 PJ/year.","dir":"ltr","width":"64.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":237.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Global primary energy demand","dir":"ltr","width":"129.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","219.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85569,"y":219.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":" in the 2.0  °C Scenario will decrease by 21% ","dir":"ltr","width":"193.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.52","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.51568603,"y":219.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"from around 556 EJ/year in 2015 to 439 EJ/year. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":207.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"the overall primary energy demand will decrease by 48% by 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":195.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Scenario (5.0  °C, 837 EJ in 2050). In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":183.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"demand will be even lower (412 EJ) in 2050 because the final energy demand and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":171.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"conversion losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"126.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":159.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Global Primary Energy Supply","dir":"ltr","width":"122.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85569,"y":141.15979003} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly ","dir":"ltr","width":"204.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.78","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.78399658,"y":141.1598053} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"phase out coal and oil, after which renewable energy will have a primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8540001,"y":129.1598053} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"share of 35% in 2030 and 92% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8540001,"y":117.15979766} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"renewables will have a primary share of more than 92% in 2050 (this will include ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8540001,"y":105.15979766} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"nonenergy consumption, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8540001,"y":93.15979766} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"phased out in both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cumulative primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8540001,"y":81.15979766} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"consumption of natural gas in the 5.0  °C Scenario will sum to 5580  EJ, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8540001,"y":69.15979766} {"page":23,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"xxvii","dir":"ltr","width":"17.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","367.55","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":367.5505066,"y":623.65332031} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"cumulative coal consumption will be about 6360 EJ, and the crude oil consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"to 6380  EJ.  In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand is 3140  EJ, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"cumulative coal demand 2340  EJ and the cumulative oil demand 2960  EJ.  Even ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"lower fossil fuel use will be achieved under the 1.5 °C Scenario: 2710 EJ for natural ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"gas, 1570 EJ for coal and 2230 EJ for oil. In both alternative scenarios, the primary ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"energy supply in 2050 will be based on 100% renewable energy (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"279.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.38","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.37631225,"y":537.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","338.38","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.37631225,"y":537.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Bunker Fuels","dir":"ltr","width":"54.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"In 2015, the annual bunker fuel consumption was in the order of ","dir":"ltr","width":"274.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.64","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.63890075,"y":513.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"16,000 PJ, of which 7400 PJ was for aviation and 8600 PJ for navigation. Annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889816,"y":501.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889816,"y":489.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","487.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":487.65979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":" emissions from bunker fuels accounted for 1.3 Gt in 2015, approximately 4% ","dir":"ltr","width":"317.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":489.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"of the global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"133.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":477.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","187.16","475.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.15820312,"y":475.65979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":" emissions. In the 5.0  °C case, we assume the ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","190.16","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":190.15820312,"y":477.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"development of the final energy demand for bunkers according to the IEA World ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":465.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Energy Outlook 2017, Current Policies scenario. This will lead to a further increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":453.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"in the demand for bunker fuels by 120% until 2050 compared with the base year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":441.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"2015. Because no substitution with “green” fuels is assumed, CO","dir":"ltr","width":"267.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":429.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.08","427.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.07751464,"y":427.65979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":" emissions will ","dir":"ltr","width":"64.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.08","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.07751464,"y":429.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"rise by the same order of magnitude. Although the use of hydrogen and electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":417.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"in aviation is technically feasible (at least for regional transport) and synthetic gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":405.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"use in navigation is an additional option under discussion, this analysis adopts a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":393.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"conservative approach and assumes that bunker fuels are only replaced by biofuels ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":381.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"and synthetic liquid fuels. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, we assume the limited ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":369.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"use of sustainable biomass potentials and the complementary central production of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":357.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"power-to-liquid synfuels.","dir":"ltr","width":"100.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":345.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0 °C Scenario, this production is assumed to take place in three world ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85752105,"y":327.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"regions: Africa, the Middle East and OECD Pacific (especially Australia), where ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":315.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"synfuel generation for export is expected to be most economic. The 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":303.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"requires even faster decarbonisation, so it follows a more ambitious low-energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":291.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"pathway. The production of synthetic fuels will cause significant additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":279.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand and a corresponding expansion of renewable power-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":267.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"capacities. In the case of liquid bunker fuels, these additional renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85752105,"y":255.15979003} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.35","117.88"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.3451004,"y":117.8784027} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"100,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","129.38"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":129.37736511} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","129.38"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":129.37736511} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"200,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","140.88"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":140.87631225} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","140.88"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":140.87631225} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"300,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","152.38"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":152.37527465} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","152.38"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":152.37527465} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"400,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","163.86"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":163.85647583} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","163.86"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":163.85647583} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"500,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","175.36"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":175.35542297} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","175.36"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":175.35542297} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"600,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","186.85"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":186.85438537} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","186.85"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":186.85438537} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"700,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","198.35"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":198.35333251} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","198.35"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":198.35333251} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"800,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","209.85"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90703964,"y":209.85229492} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","209.85"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33326721,"y":209.85229492} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"900,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.41","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","63.91","221.35"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":63.90859985,"y":221.3531952} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","80.33","221.35"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":80.33483123,"y":221.3531952} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"RE","dir":"ltr","width":"6.06","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","100.77","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":100.76789855,"y":110.18039703} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"F2","dir":"ltr","width":"9.88","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","106.82","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":106.81905364,"y":110.18039703} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":".0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"9.61","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","114.61","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":114.60923004,"y":110.18039703} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"1.5°","dir":"ltr","width":"9.42","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","124.40","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":124.39871978,"y":110.18039703} 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{"page":24,"change":"none","str":"C1","dir":"ltr","width":"6.58","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","274.39","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":274.38790893,"y":110.18039703} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":".5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"9.61","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","280.74","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":280.74072265,"y":110.18039703} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"RE","dir":"ltr","width":"6.06","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","305.24","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":305.23516845,"y":110.18039703} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"F2","dir":"ltr","width":"9.88","height":"5.92","transform":["5.92","0.00","0.00","5.92","311.29","110.18"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":311.28631591,"y":110.18039703} 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{"page":24,"change":"none","str":"PJ/y","dir":"ltr","width":"11.53","height":"7.10","transform":["0.00","7.10","-7.10","0.00","59.65","164.30"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":59.64970016,"y":164.29949951} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"2.45","height":"7.10","transform":["0.00","7.10","-7.10","0.00","59.65","175.80"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":59.64970016,"y":175.79841613} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"23.90","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","217.47"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":217.47329711} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Ocean energy","dir":"ltr","width":"35.02","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","206.46"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":206.46359252} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"30.29","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","195.44"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":195.4380951} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Sola","dir":"ltr","width":"10.46","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","184.43"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":184.42739868} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"2.17","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","361.00","184.43"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":361.0036316,"y":184.42739868} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Biomas","dir":"ltr","width":"18.42","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","173.42"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":173.41760253} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"2.44","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","368.96","173.42"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":368.9588623,"y":173.41760253} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Wind","dir":"ltr","width":"13.46","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","162.41"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":162.4078064} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Hydr","dir":"ltr","width":"12.22","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","151.40"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":151.39720153} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"o","dir":"ltr","width":"3.28","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","362.65","151.40"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":362.65255737,"y":151.39720153} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Natural ga","dir":"ltr","width":"26.25","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","140.39"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":140.3874054} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"2.44","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","376.74","140.39"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":376.737854,"y":140.3874054} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Crude oi","dir":"ltr","width":"21.39","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","129.38"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":129.377594} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"l","dir":"ltr","width":"1.39","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","371.83","129.38"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":371.82876586,"y":129.377594} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"11.00","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","118.35"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":118.3513031} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"19.60","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","350.52","107.34"],"fontName":"SPXOID+SrvwckVlrvvyCrnnsjCalibri-Light","x":350.51831054,"y":107.34140014} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 5","dir":"ltr","width":"20.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","79.15"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":79.14980316} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Global projections of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the various ","dir":"ltr","width":"307.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","79.84","79.15"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.84279632,"y":79.14980316} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"31.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.15"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15380096} {"page":24,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"xxviii","dir":"ltr","width":"20.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"power-","dir":"ltr","width":"27.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"generation capacities could amount to 1100 GW in the 2.0 °C Scenario and ","dir":"ltr","width":"306.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.73","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.728302,"y":597.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"more than 1200 GW in the 1.5 °C Scenario if the flexible utilization of 4000 full-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"load hours per year can be achieved. However, such a scenario requires high elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":573.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"trolyser capacities and high-volume hydrogen storage to ensure not only flexibility ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"in the power system but also high utilization rates by downstream synthesis pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":549.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"cesses (e.g. via Fischer-Tropsch plants).","dir":"ltr","width":"159.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"Annual global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"134.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","200.20","523.66"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":200.19630432,"y":523.65979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"38.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.82","525.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":205.81629943,"y":525.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":" will increase by 40% in the 5.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"143.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","244.71","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":244.70629882,"y":525.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, from 31,180 Mt in 2015 to more than 43,500 Mt in 2050. The stringent ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":513.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"mitigation measures in both alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":501.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"to 7070 Mt in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 2650 Mt in the 1.5 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":489.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"with further reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":477.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":465.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","463.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":463.65979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":" emissions from 2015 until 2050 will sum to 1388 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"317.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":465.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":453.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"will be 587 Gt and 450 Gt, respectively. Therefore, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"286.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":441.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.10","439.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.09500122,"y":439.65979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"45.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.10","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.09500122,"y":441.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"will decrease by 58% in the 2.0  °C Scenario and by 68% in the 1.5  °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":429.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"compared with the 5.0  °C case. Thus, a rapid reduction in annual emissions will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":417.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"occur in both alternative scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"139.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":405.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"Global Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"126.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","387.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85499954,"y":387.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"Global and regional long-term energy results were used to conduct a detailed power ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","375.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":375.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"sector analysis with the methodology described in Sect. 1.7 of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":363.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.63","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.625,"y":363.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":". Both the ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.63","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.625,"y":363.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios rely on high proportions of variable solar and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","351.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":351.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"generation. The aim of the power sector analysis was to gain insight into the stability ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","339.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":339.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"of the power system in each region—subdivided into up to eight subregions—and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":327.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"to gauge the extent to which power grid interconnections, dispatch generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":315.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"services and storage technologies are required. The results presented in this chapter ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":303.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"are projections calculated based on publicly available data. Detailed load curves for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":291.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"some subregions and countries were not available, or, in some cases, the relevant ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":279.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"information is classified. Therefore, the outcomes of the [R]E 24/7 model are ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":267.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"estimates and require further research with more detailed localized data, especially ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":255.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"regarding the available power grid infrastructures. The power sector projections for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":243.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia, assume unilateral access to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":231.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"energy services by the residential sector by 2050 and require transmission and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":219.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"distribution grids in regions where there are none at the time of writing. Further ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":207.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"research, in cooperation with local utilities and government representatives, is ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":195.15977478} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"required to develop a more detailed understanding of the power infrastructure needs.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":183.15977478} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"Development of Global Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"192.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","165.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85499954,"y":165.15979003} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"The size of the global market for ","dir":"ltr","width":"136.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","252.22","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":252.21679687,"y":165.1598053} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"renewable power plants will increase significantly under the 2.0 °C Scenario. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":153.1598053} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"annual market for solar PV power must increase by a factor of 4.5, from close to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":141.1598053} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"100 GW in 2017 to an average of 454 GW by 2030. The annual onshore wind mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":129.1598053} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17678833,"y":129.1598053} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"ket must expand to 172 GW by 2025, about three times higher than in 2017. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":117.15979766} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"offshore wind market will continue to increase in importance within the renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":105.15979766} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"power sector. By 2050, offshore wind installations will increase to 32  GW annu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":93.15979766} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16778564,"y":93.15979766} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"ally—11 times higher than in 2017. Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":81.15979766} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"play an important role in the generation of dispatchable solar electricity to supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":69.15979766} {"page":25,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"xxix","dir":"ltr","width":"15.87","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","369.84","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.83621215,"y":623.65332031} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"bulk power, especially for industry, and to provide secured capacities to power sys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":597.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"tems. By 2030, the annual CSP market must increase to 78  GW, compared with ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"3 GW in 2020 and only 0.1 GW in 2017.","dir":"ltr","width":"163.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the phase-out of coal and lignite power plants is acceler","dir":"ltr","width":"316.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","555.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","555.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":555.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"ated, and a total capacity of 618 GW—equivalent to approximately 515 power sta","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":543.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2243042,"y":543.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"tions (1.2 GW on average)—must end operation by 2025. This will mean a phase-out ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":531.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"of two coal power plants per week from 2020 onwards, on average. The replacement ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":519.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"power will come from a variety of renewable power generators, both variable and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":507.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"dispatchable. The annual market for solar PV energy must be around 30% higher ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":495.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"than it was in 2025, as under the 2.0 °C Scenario. The onshore wind market also has ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":483.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"an accelerated trajectory under the 1.5 °C Scenario, whereas the offshore wind mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":471.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","471.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":471.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"ket is assumed to be almost identical to that in the 2.0 °C Scenario, because of long ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":459.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"lead times for these projects. The same is assumed for CSP plants, which are utility-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":447.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"scale projects, and significantly higher deployment seems unlikely in the time ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":435.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"remaining until 2025.","dir":"ltr","width":"86.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":423.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"Utilization of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"151.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829162,"y":405.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"On a global scale, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","211.73","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":211.7290039,"y":405.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios, the shares of variable renewable power generation will increase from 4% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":393.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"in 2015 to 38% and 46%, respectively, by 2030, and will increase to 64% and 65%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":381.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"respectively, by 2050. The reason for the variations in the two cases is the different ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":369.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"assumptions made regarding efficiency measures, which may lead to lower overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":357.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. During the same period, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":345.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"dispatchable renewables—CSP plants, bioenergy generation, geothermal energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":333.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"and hydropower—will remain around 32% until 2030 on a global average and then ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":321.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"decrease slightly to 29% under the 2.0 °C Scenario (and to 27% under the 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":309.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"Scenario) by 2050. The system share of dispatchable conventional generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":297.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"capacities—mainly coal, oil, gas and nuclear energy—will decrease from a global ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":285.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"average of 60% in 2015 to only 14% in 2040. By 2050, the remaining dispatchable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":273.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"conventional gas power plants will be converted to operate on hydrogen as a ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":261.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"synthetic fuel, to avoid stranded investments and to achieve higher dispatch power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":249.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"capacities. Increased variable shares—mainly in the USA, the Middle East region ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":237.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"and Australia—will produce hydrogen for local and the export markets, as fuel for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":225.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"both renewable power plants and the transport sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"212.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":213.15979003} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"Development of Maximum and Residual Loads for the Ten World Regions","dir":"ltr","width":"310.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85900878,"y":189.15977478} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"The ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.96","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.96200561,"y":189.1598053} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"maximum load will increase in all regions and within similar ranges under both the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":177.1598053} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The load in OECD countries will rise most strongly in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":165.1598053} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"response to increased electrification, mainly in the transport sector, whereas the load ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":153.1598053} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"in developing countries will increase as the overall electricity demand increases in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":141.1598053} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"all sectors.","dir":"ltr","width":"42.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":129.1598053} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"The most significant increase will be in Africa, where the maximum load will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86199951,"y":111.15979766} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"surge by 534% over the entire modelling period due to favourable economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":99.15979766} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"development and increased access to energy services by households. In OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":87.15979766} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"Pacific (South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand), efficiency measures will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86199951,"y":75.15979766} {"page":26,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"xxx","dir":"ltr","width":"13.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"reduce the maximum load to 87% by 2030 relative to that in the base year, and it ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"will increase to 116% by 2050 with the expansion of electric mobility and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"increased electrification of the process heat supply in the industry sector. The 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"Scenario calculates slightly higher loads in 2030 due to the accelerated electrifica","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":561.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"tion of the industry, heating and business sectors, except in three regions (the Middle ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"East, India and Non-OECD Asia Other Asia), where the early application of effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":537.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"ciency measures will lead to an overall lower demand at the end of the modelling ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"period, for the same GDP and population growth rates.","dir":"ltr","width":"219.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"In this analysis, the residual load is the load remaining after the variable renew","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":501.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"able power generation. Negative values indicate that the energy generated from ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"solar and wind exceeds the actual load and must be exported to other regions, stored ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"or curtailed. In each region, the average generation should be consistent with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"average load. However, maximum loads and maximum generations do not usually ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"occur at the same time, so surplus electricity can be produced and must be exported ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"or stored as far as possible. In rare individual cases, solar- or wind-based generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"plants can also temporarily reduce their output to a lower load, or some plants can ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"be shut down. Any reduction in energy generation from solar and wind sources in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"response to low demands is defined as “curtailment”. In this analysis, curtailment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"rates of up to 5% by 2030 and 10% by 2050 are assumed to have no substantial ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"negative economic impact on the operation of power plants and therefore will not ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"trigger an increase in storage capacities. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","254.40","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.39831542,"y":357.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":" illustrates the development of ","dir":"ltr","width":"129.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","259.40","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.39831542,"y":357.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"maximum loads across all ten world regions under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"Global Storage and Dispatch Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"167.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":327.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"The world market for storage and dis","dir":"ltr","width":"155.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.92","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.9156952,"y":327.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18270874,"y":327.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"patch technologies and services will increase significantly in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":315.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"The annual market for new hydro-pumped storage plants will grow on average by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":303.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"6 GW per year to a total capacity of 244 GW in 2030. During the same period, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":291.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"total installed capacity of batteries will increase to 12 GW, requiring an annual mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":279.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1756897,"y":279.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"ket of 1  GW.  Between 2030 and 2050, the energy service sector for storage and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":267.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"storage technologies must accelerate further. The battery market must grow by an ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":255.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"annual installation rate of 22 GW and, as a result, will overtake the global cumula","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":243.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16668701,"y":243.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"tive capacity of pumped hydro between 2040 and 2050. The conversion of gas infra","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":231.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22369384,"y":231.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"structure from natural gas to hydrogen and synthetic fuels will start slowly between ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":219.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"2020 and 2030, with the conversion of power plants with annual capacities of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":207.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"around 2 GW. However, after 2030, the transformation of the global gas industry to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":195.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen will accelerate significantly, with the conversion of a total of 197 GW gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":183.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"power plants and gas cogeneration facilities each year. In parallel, the average ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":171.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"capacity of gas and hydrogen plants will decrease from 29% (2578 h/year) in 2030 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":159.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"to 11% (975 h/year) by 2050, converting the gas sector from a supply-driven to a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":147.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"service-driven industry.","dir":"ltr","width":"93.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":135.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"At around 2030, the 1.5 °C Scenario will require more storage throughput than ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85569763,"y":117.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario, but the storage demands for the two scenarios will be equal at ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":105.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"the end of the modelling period. It is assumed that the higher throughput can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":93.15979003} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"managed with equally higher installed capacities, leading to full-load hours of up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":81.1597824} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"200 h per year for batteries and hydro-pumped storage.","dir":"ltr","width":"220.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":69.1597824} {"page":27,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"xxxi","dir":"ltr","width":"15.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","369.81","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.81149291,"y":623.65332031} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry","dir":"ltr","width":"234.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.33"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":231.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"The implementation of ","dir":"ltr","width":"92.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","294.76","231.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":294.75878906,"y":231.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will have a significant impact on the global fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":219.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"fuel industry. While this may appear to be stating the obvious, current climate ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":207.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"debates have not yet led to an open debate about the orderly withdrawal from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":195.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"coal, oil and gas extraction industries. Instead, the political debate about coal, oil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":183.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"and gas is focused on the security of supply and price security. However, mitigating ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":171.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"climate change is only possible when fossil fuels are phased out.","dir":"ltr","width":"258.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":159.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Coal: Under the 5.0  °C Scenario, the required production of thermal coal—","dir":"ltr","width":"319.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85878753,"y":141.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"excluding coal for nonenergy uses, such as steel production—will remain at 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":129.33340454} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"levels, with an annual increase of around 1% per year until 2050. Under the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":117.33339691} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, coal production will decline sharply between 2020 and 2030 at a rate of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":105.33339691} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"around 6% per year. By 2030, global coal production will be equal to China’s annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":93.33339691} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"production in 2017, at 3.7 billion tonnes, whereas that volume will be reached in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":81.33339691} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"128.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.33"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":69.33339691} 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","dir":"ltr","width":"18.83","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","219.14","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":219.1385498,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Eurasi","dir":"ltr","width":"13.88","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","237.97","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":237.96951293,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"a ","dir":"ltr","width":"13.43","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","251.85","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":251.85444641,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Other Asia","dir":"ltr","width":"24.10","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","265.28","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":265.28256225,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":" India","dir":"ltr","width":"12.61","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","301.50","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":301.50073242,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":" Chin","dir":"ltr","width":"11.49","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","331.69","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":331.69003295,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"a ","dir":"ltr","width":"12.93","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","343.20","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":343.19503784,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific","dir":"ltr","width":"28.90","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","356.12","311.30"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":356.11761474,"y":311.29501342} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Load Development by Region","dir":"ltr","width":"106.27","height":"8.93","transform":["8.93","0.00","0.00","8.93","170.46","596.70"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":170.46130371,"y":596.70428466} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%]","dir":"ltr","width":"121.34","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","110.72","292.39"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":110.72299957,"y":292.39208984} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%]","dir":"ltr","width":"121.34","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","243.36","292.39"],"fontName":"USWAKZ+GkkqrlWtlcfxLxtmpxCalibri","x":243.35629272,"y":292.39208984} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 6","dir":"ltr","width":"20.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","272.68"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":272.67559814} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Development of maximum loads in ten world regions in 2020, 2030 and 2050 under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"307.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","80.27","272.68"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.26779937,"y":272.67559814} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"95.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","262.68"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":262.67959594} {"page":28,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65759277} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"xxxii","dir":"ltr","width":"18.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"Oil: Oil production in the 5.0  °C Scenario will grow steadily by 1% annually ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"until the end of the modelling period in 2050. Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, oil produc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15130615,"y":585.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"tion will decline by 3% annually until 2025 and then by 5% per year until 2030. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"After 2030, oil production will decline by around 7% per year on average, until the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"oil produced for energy use is phased out entirely by 2050. The oil production ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"capacity of the USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2017 would be sufficient to supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"the global demand in 2035 calculated under the 2.0 °C Scenario. The 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"reduces the required production volume by half by 2030, reducing it further to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"equivalent of the 2017 production volume of just one of the three largest oil produc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":501.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"ers (USA, Saudi Arabia or Russia) by 2040.","dir":"ltr","width":"175.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"Gas: In the 5.0 °C Scenario, gas production will increase steadily by 2% a year ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"for the next two decades, leading to an overall production increase of about 50% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"2050. Compared with coal and oil, the gas phase-out will be significantly slower in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. These scenarios also assume that the gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"infrastructure, such as gas pipelines and power plants, will be used afterwards for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"the hydrogen and/or renewable methane produced with electricity from renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"sources. Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, gas production will only decrease by 0.2% per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"year until 2025, by 1% until 2030 and, on average, by 4% annually until 2040. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"represents a rather slow phase-out and will allow the gas industry to gradually ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"transfer to hydrogen. The phase-out in the 1.5 °C Scenario is equally slow, and a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"4%/year reduction will occur after 2025.","dir":"ltr","width":"162.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"The trajectories predicted by the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios for global coal, oil ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"and gas production are consistent with the Paris Agreement targets and can be used ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"to calculate possible employment effects, in terms of job losses in the fossil fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"industry, job gains in the renewable energy industry and options for transitioning the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"gas industry into an industry based on renewably produced hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"277.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"Employment","dir":"ltr","width":"55.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":279.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"The transition to a 100% renewable energy system is not just a tech","dir":"ltr","width":"267.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.85780334,"y":279.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18179321,"y":279.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"nical task, it is also a socially and economically challenging process. It is imperative ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":267.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"that this transition is managed in a fair and equitable way. One of the key concerns ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":255.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"is the employment of workers in the affected industries. However, it should be noted ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":243.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"that the “just transition” concept is concerned not only with workers’ rights but also ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":231.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"with the broader community. This includes considering, for example, community ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":219.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"participation in decision-making processes, public dialogue and policy mechanisms ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":207.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"that create an enabling environment for new industries to ensure local economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":195.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"development. Although it is acknowledged that a just transition is important, there ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":183.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"are limited data on the effects that this transition will have on employment. There is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":171.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"even less information on the types of occupations that will be affected by the transi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":159.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1578064,"y":159.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"tion, either by project growth or declines in employment. This study provides pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":147.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1867981,"y":147.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"jections for jobs in construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":135.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"fuel and heat supply across 12 technologies and 10 world regions, based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":123.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. Projected employment is calculated regionally, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":111.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"but the results are presented at the global level.","dir":"ltr","width":"187.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":99.15979003} {"page":29,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.30","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.29830932,"y":623.65319824} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"xxxiii","dir":"ltr","width":"20.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","364.74","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.73699951,"y":623.65332031} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Employment—Quantitative Results","dir":"ltr","width":"140.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will generate ","dir":"ltr","width":"187.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","200.21","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.20970153,"y":597.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"more energy-sector jobs in the world as a whole at every stage of the projection. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":585.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C Scenario will increase renewable energy capacities faster than the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":573.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, and, therefore, employment will increase faster. By 2050, both scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":561.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"will create around 47 million jobs, so employment will be within similar ranges.","dir":"ltr","width":"321.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":549.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":525.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"In 2025, there will be 30.9 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":525.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"45.5 million under the 2.0 °C Scenario and 52.3 million under the 1.5 °C.","dir":"ltr","width":"293.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":513.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":501.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"In 2030, there will be 31.7 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":501.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"52.9  million under the 2.0  °C Scenario and 58.5  million under the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":489.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":477.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":465.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"In 2050, there will be 29.9 million energy-sector jobs under the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":465.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"48.7  million under the 2.0  °C Scenario and 46.3  million under the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":453.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85970306,"y":441.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Under the 5.0 °C Scenario, job will drop to 4% below the 2015 levels by 2020 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":423.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"then remain quite stable until 2030. Strong growth in renewable energy will lead to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":411.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"an increase of 44% in total energy-sector jobs by 2025 under the 2.0 °C Scenario and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":399.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"66% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. In the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":387.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"jobs will account for 81% (86%) in 2025 and 87% (89%) in 2030, with PV having ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":375.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"the greatest share of 24% (26%), followed by biomass, wind and solar heating.","dir":"ltr","width":"313.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":363.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Employment—Occupational Calculations","dir":"ltr","width":"166.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85969924,"y":345.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Jobs will increase across all occupations ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.36","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.35629272,"y":345.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2025, except in metal trades, which display a minor decline of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8562889,"y":333.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"2%, as shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"87.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8562889,"y":321.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"7","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","141.08","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.07629394,"y":321.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":". However, these results are not uniform across regions. For ","dir":"ltr","width":"242.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","146.08","321.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.07629394,"y":321.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"example, China and India will both experience a reduction in the number of jobs for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8562889,"y":309.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"managers and clerical and administrative workers between 2015 and 2025.","dir":"ltr","width":"298.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8562889,"y":297.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Mineral and Metal Requirements Under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"298.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.8562889,"y":273.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Within ","dir":"ltr","width":"29.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","358.13","273.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":358.13189697,"y":273.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"the context of the increasing requirements for metal resources by renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":261.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"and storage technologies, the rapid increases in demands for both cobalt and lithium ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":249.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"are of greatest concern. The demands for both metals will exceed the current ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":237.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"production rates by 2023 and 2022, respectively. The demands for these metals will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":225.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"increase more rapidly than will that for silver, partly because solar PV is a more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":213.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"established technology and silver use has become very efficient, whereas the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":201.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"electrification of the transport system and the rapid expansion in lithium battery use ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":189.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"have only begun to accelerate in the last few years. The potential to offset primary ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":177.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"demand is different depending on the technology. Offsetting demand through ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":165.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"secondary sources of cobalt and lithium has the most potential to reduce total ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":153.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"primary demand, as these technologies have a shorter lifetime of approximately 10 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":141.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"years. The cumulative demands for both metals will exceed current reserves, but ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":129.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"with high recycling rates, they can remain below the resource levels. However, there ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":117.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"is a delay in the period during which recycling can offset demand, because there ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":105.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"must be sufficient batteries in use and they must exhaust their current purpose before ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":93.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"they can be collected and recycled. This delay could be further extended by strategies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":81.15979003} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"that reuse vehicular batteries as stationary storage, which might reduce costs in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86190032,"y":69.1597824} {"page":30,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} 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{"page":32,"change":"none","str":"xxxv","dir":"ltr","width":"17.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","368.12","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":368.12078857,"y":623.65332031} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"short term and increase the uptake of PV. The efficiency of cobalt in batteries also ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"significantly reduces its demand, and this reduction is already happening as manu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","585.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19030761,"y":585.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"facturers move towards lower cobalt chemistries.","dir":"ltr","width":"195.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"Increasing the efficiency of the material used is potentially the most successful ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","555.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"strategy to offset the demand for PV metals, and recycling will have a smaller ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"impact on demand because the lifespan of solar PV panels is long and their potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"for recycling is low. Although the increased demand for silver by 2050 will not be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"as extreme as that for cobalt or lithium, it will still be considerable. This is important, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"especially when considering that solar PV currently consumes approximately 9% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"end-use silver. It is possible to create silver-less solar panels, but these panels are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"not expected to be on the market in the near future.","dir":"ltr","width":"203.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"Examination of the Climate Implications of Our Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"248.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"One of the Paris Agreement’s most outstanding achievements has been the consensus ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"by 195 countries to limit climate change to well below 2 °C and to pursue their best ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Together with the goal to reduce emissions to net zero ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"levels, the international agreement clearly sets a framework in which regional and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"national emission trajectories can be designed and evaluated. The strong focus on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"<2.0 °C temperature increase is partly driven by the knowledge that 2 °C warming ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"does not equate to a safe climate: not for small islands that are threatened by rising ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"seas, not for farmers dependent on rainfall in drought-stricken areas and not for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"communities that are threatened by extreme rainfall events or more intense cyclones.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"Here, we use probabilistic methods to examine the scenarios that have been ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","327.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":327.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"developed to evaluate their implications for long-term temperature and sea-level ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"rises, using models and settings that are also used in the recent IPCC Special Report ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"on 1.5 °C warming. Our lowest scenario has—by design—an approximate 50% or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"higher chance of a 2100 temperature level that is below 1.5 °C—after a slight over","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":279.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":279.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"shoot. In contrast to the SSP1_19 scenario, which is the main 1.5  °C-compliant ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.15979003} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"scenario in the next IPCC Assessment Report, our 1.5 °C Scenario does not rely on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.15977478} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"massive net negative emissions. Even the most stringent mitigation scenarios devel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.15977478} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","243.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":243.15977478} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"oped in this study are unable to halt sea-level rise. In fact, a 30 cm rise in sea level ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.15977478} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"by 2100, which will continue thereafter, seems to be the unavoidable legacy of our ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.15977478} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"past use of fossil fuels, unless we remove this CO","dir":"ltr","width":"204.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.15977478} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","258.74","205.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.74328613,"y":205.6598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":" from the atmosphere in much ","dir":"ltr","width":"126.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","261.74","207.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":261.74328613,"y":207.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"larger amounts than even the complete reforestation of the planet would permit.","dir":"ltr","width":"318.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328887,"y":195.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"Faced with the grim challenge of ongoing climate risks on the one side and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","183.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86328887,"y":183.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"many positive effects and economic benefits of switching from fossil fuels to ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328887,"y":171.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"renewables on the other, the path is clear. A rapid shift towards a new era of smart, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328887,"y":159.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"renewable and sector-coupled energy supply, combined with clever demand-side ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328887,"y":147.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"measures and adaptations to the impacts of climate change, will allow us and our ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328887,"y":135.1598053} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"children to address the legacy of our past reliance on fossil fuels.","dir":"ltr","width":"259.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86328887,"y":123.15979766} {"page":32,"change":"none","str":"Executive Summary","dir":"ltr","width":"70.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"xxxvii","dir":"ltr","width":"21.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","363.79","46.71"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":363.78579711,"y":46.70920181} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"Acknowledgement","dir":"ltr","width":"126.05","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","592.46"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":592.461792} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"The authors would like to thank the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation (","dir":"ltr","width":"280.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":430.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"https://www.","dir":"ltr","width":"51.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.25","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.24829101,"y":430.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"leonardodicaprio.org","dir":"ltr","width":"83.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":") which funded the research for Chaps ","dir":"ltr","width":"154.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","137.27","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":137.26730346,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","291.83","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":291.8283081,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","296.83","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.8283081,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","301.74","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":301.73831176,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.74","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.73831176,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.65","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.64831542,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","316.65","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":316.64831542,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","321.56","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.5583191,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.56","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.5583191,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.47","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.46832275,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","336.47","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.46832275,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.38","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.3782959,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","346.38","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.3782959,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"7","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","351.29","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":351.28829956,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","356.29","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.28829956,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","361.20","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.19830322,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":", and ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.20","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.19830322,"y":418.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"9","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","406.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":406.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":" and Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"46.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","58.89","406.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":58.88830184,"y":406.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"12","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","105.88","406.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.87830352,"y":406.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":". Their ongoing support and dedication to this project was key and ","dir":"ltr","width":"272.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","115.88","406.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":115.87830352,"y":406.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"kept all researchers highly motivated.","dir":"ltr","width":"149.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","394.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":394.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"Furthermore, we thank the German Greenpeace Foundation “Umweltstiftung ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.89","382.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.88829803,"y":382.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"Greenpeace” (","dir":"ltr","width":"60.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","370.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":370.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"https://umweltstiftung-greenpeace.de/die-stiftung","dir":"ltr","width":"197.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.07","370.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.06829833,"y":370.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":") for funding the ","dir":"ltr","width":"79.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.55","370.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.54830932,"y":370.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"employment calculation research documented in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"226.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","358.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":358.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","280.39","358.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.38830566,"y":358.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":". Last but not least, our ","dir":"ltr","width":"98.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","290.39","358.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.38830566,"y":358.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"thanks also to Earthworks (","dir":"ltr","width":"113.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","346.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":346.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"earthworks.org","dir":"ltr","width":"59.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.74","346.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.7382965,"y":346.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":") for funding the research about metal ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","227.72","346.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.7183075,"y":346.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"requirements presented in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","334.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":334.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","185.81","334.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.80830383,"y":334.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.81","334.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.80830383,"y":334.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"This project has been supported by numerous people between July 2017 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.89","322.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.88829803,"y":322.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"November 2018, and our thanks go to each of them. A special thanks to Karl Burkart ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","310.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":310.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"(Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation); Melanie Stoehr and Claudia Voigt (Umweltstiftung ","dir":"ltr","width":"332.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","298.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":298.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"Greenpeace); Payal Sampat (Earthworks); Anna Leidreiter, Anna Skowron and Rob ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","286.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":286.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"van Riet from the World Future Council (","dir":"ltr","width":"164.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","274.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":274.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"https://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/","dir":"ltr","width":"146.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.33","274.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.3343048,"y":274.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"); Dr. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","364.61","274.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.61331176,"y":274.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"Joachim Fuenfgelt from Bread for the World (","dir":"ltr","width":"181.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","262.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":262.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"https://www.brot-fuer-die-welt.de/en/","dir":"ltr","width":"149.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.86","262.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.8592987,"y":262.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"bread-for-the-world","dir":"ltr","width":"79.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","250.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":250.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"); and Stefan Schurig from F20—Foundations 20 (","dir":"ltr","width":"205.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","133.00","250.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.9972992,"y":250.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"http://www.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","338.11","250.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.1072998,"y":250.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"foundations-20.org/","dir":"ltr","width":"78.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","238.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":238.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":") who provided initial support to make this project possible. ","dir":"ltr","width":"256.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","132.87","238.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.8683014,"y":238.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"Finally, we would like to thank Greenpeace International and Greenpeace Germany ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","226.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":226.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"for their ongoing support of the Energy [R]evolution energy scenario research series ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.89","214.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88830184,"y":214.17608642} {"page":33,"change":"none","str":"between 2004 and 2015 which resulted in the development of the long-term energy 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{"page":35,"change":"none","str":"Malte Meinshausen","dir":"ltr","width":"78.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","477.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":35,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":459.15979003} {"page":35,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"201.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","459.16"],"fontName":"MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","x":73.85829925,"y":459.15979003} 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{"page":37,"change":"none","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study","dir":"ltr","width":"174.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85858917,"y":363.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"................................","dir":"ltr","width":"80.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","281.36","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.35760498,"y":363.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"87","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","375.46","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":375.45858764,"y":363.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"188.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","303.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85820007,"y":303.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study","dir":"ltr","width":"174.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85820007,"y":291.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"................................","dir":"ltr","width":"80.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","281.36","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.35720825,"y":291.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"89","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","375.46","291.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":375.45822143,"y":291.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 4.10","dir":"ltr","width":"35.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85821151,"y":279.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"Global and regional organic carbon OC emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"204.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","279.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8582077,"y":279.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"in the literature-reported scenarios considered ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","267.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8582077,"y":267.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this 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{"page":37,"change":"none","str":"Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 ","dir":"ltr","width":"202.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","189.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85823822,"y":189.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"(IRENA 2014)","dir":"ltr","width":"59.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85823822,"y":177.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"..............................................................................","dir":"ltr","width":"195.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","166.36","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":166.35824584,"y":177.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"111","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.46","177.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.45825195,"y":177.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8582611,"y":165.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"Development of the specific final energy use (per $GDP) ","dir":"ltr","width":"232.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","165.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8582611,"y":165.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"in all stationary sectors (i.e., without transport) per world ","dir":"ltr","width":"233.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","153.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8582611,"y":153.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"region under the 2.0 °C Scenario (left) ","dir":"ltr","width":"158.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","141.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8582611,"y":141.15979003} {"page":37,"change":"none","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenario (right)","dir":"ltr","width":"108.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","129.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8582611,"y":129.15979003} 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(right)","dir":"ltr","width":"139.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85832977,"y":549.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"..............................................","dir":"ltr","width":"115.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.36","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.3583374,"y":549.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"453","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.46","549.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.4583435,"y":549.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 12.1","dir":"ltr","width":"35.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85834121,"y":531.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"Global CO","dir":"ltr","width":"43.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8583374,"y":531.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","148.47","529.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.46769714,"y":529.65979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":", CH","dir":"ltr","width":"18.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","151.47","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":151.46769714,"y":531.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","170.36","529.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.35749816,"y":529.65979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":" and N","dir":"ltr","width":"26.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","173.36","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.35749816,"y":531.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","200.02","529.66"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.01719665,"y":529.65979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"O concentrations under ","dir":"ltr","width":"98.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","203.02","531.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.01719665,"y":531.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"various scenarios. The so-called SSP scenarios are going ","dir":"ltr","width":"231.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","519.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85720062,"y":519.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"to inform the Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC, ","dir":"ltr","width":"214.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85720062,"y":507.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"the RCP scenarios are the previous generation of scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"239.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85720062,"y":495.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"and the LDF scenarios are those developed in this 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","dir":"ltr","width":"204.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","459.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8580017,"y":459.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"Assessment (so-called SSP scenarios), the RCP scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"234.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","447.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8580017,"y":447.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"underlying the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report and ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","435.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8580017,"y":435.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"the LDF scenarios developed in this 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","dir":"ltr","width":"220.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","375.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85803985,"y":375.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"scenarios developed in this study","dir":"ltr","width":"131.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.86","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.85803985,"y":363.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":".................................................","dir":"ltr","width":"122.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.86","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.8570404,"y":363.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"468","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.46","363.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.45803833,"y":363.15979003} {"page":46,"change":"none","str":"List of Figures","dir":"ltr","width":"50.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"liii","dir":"ltr","width":"9.45","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","376.06","46.71"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":376.05981445,"y":46.70920181} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"Table 3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"36.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":430.17608642} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"Overview of regions and sub-regions used in the analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"228.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","110.86","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.85829925,"y":430.17608642} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"........","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.36","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.35629272,"y":430.17608642} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"31","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","375.46","430.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":375.45831298,"y":430.17608642} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"Table 3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"36.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","418.18"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":418.17608642} {"page":47,"change":"none","str":"Input parameters for the dispatch 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{"page":53,"change":"none","str":"Summary of metal scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"114.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","110.86","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.85830688,"y":543.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"......................................................","dir":"ltr","width":"135.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.36","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.35830688,"y":543.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"443","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.46","543.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.45831298,"y":543.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"Table 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{"page":53,"change":"none","str":"......................................................................","dir":"ltr","width":"175.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","186.36","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.3583374,"y":507.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"445","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.46","507.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.4583435,"y":507.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"Table 11.5","dir":"ltr","width":"41.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85834884,"y":495.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"Comparison of results with other studies","dir":"ltr","width":"161.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","110.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.85835266,"y":495.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"...................................","dir":"ltr","width":"87.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.86","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.8583374,"y":495.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"452","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.46","495.16"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.4583435,"y":495.15979003} {"page":53,"change":"none","str":"List of Tables","dir":"ltr","width":"46.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","381.26","56.71"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":381.26180933999996,"y":56.70920181} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"© The Author(s) 2019 ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","56.71"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_1","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 1","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"BVRIAQ+VnxxvjKxlcpvTrncyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Introduction","dir":"ltr","width":"86.83","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"BVRIAQ+VnxxvjKxlcpvTrncyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske and Thomas Pregger","dir":"ltr","width":"138.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"BVRIAQ+VnxxvjKxlcpvTrncyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.14"],"fontName":"BVRIAQ+VnxxvjKxlcpvTrncyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":477.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Brief introduction to the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and its main goals, ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.07","477.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.06829736999998,"y":477.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"followed by the project background, motivation and objectives. Presentation of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"specific research questions for the energy and climate scenario development. Short ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"overview of published 100% renewable energy scenarios and the main differences ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"between those scenarios and the newly developed 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios pre","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","429.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13629054,"y":429.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"sented in the book. Overview about the basic assumptions in regard to technology ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"preferences in future energy pathways. Discussion of the advantages and limitations ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"of scenarios in the energy and climate debate.","dir":"ltr","width":"182.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"UNFCCC Paris Agreement, Article 2:","dir":"ltr","width":"155.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.11","355.89"],"fontName":"XPTKWY+PmwxfhSbttbgDjtqmkTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":66.10549829999998,"y":355.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"1.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.11","331.89"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.10549829999998,"y":331.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, ","dir":"ltr","width":"300.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.61","331.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":78.60549829999998,"y":331.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.61","319.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":78.60549829999998,"y":319.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"of climate change,in the context of sustainable development and efforts to ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.61","307.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":78.60549829999998,"y":307.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"eradicate poverty, including by:","dir":"ltr","width":"127.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.61","295.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":78.60549829999998,"y":295.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"(a)","dir":"ltr","width":"10.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","79.47","277.89"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.46549890999998,"y":277.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","277.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":277.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the tem","dir":"ltr","width":"275.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","265.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":265.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.60","265.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":370.59649562,"y":265.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"perature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","253.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":253.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;","dir":"ltr","width":"278.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","241.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":241.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"(b)","dir":"ltr","width":"11.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.61","229.89"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.60549829999998,"y":229.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate ","dir":"ltr","width":"283.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","229.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":229.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","217.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":217.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; and","dir":"ltr","width":"278.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.27","205.89"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.26550195999998,"y":205.89089965} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"(continued)","dir":"ltr","width":"46.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.42","181.24"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.41549585999996,"y":181.24090576} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"33.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","145.39"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":145.39169311} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","87.25","145.39"],"fontName":"VHPYUC+JksxxjKsbskyMdpydqWingdings-Regular","x":87.25450037999998,"y":145.39169311} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","95.75","145.39"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.74690149999998,"y":145.39169311} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","135.40"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":135.39569091} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","125.40"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":125.39968872} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":" sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","125.40"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93939874999998,"y":125.39968872} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger","dir":"ltr","width":"35.12","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","110.40"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":110.39718627} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Department of Energy Systems Analysis, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for ","dir":"ltr","width":"302.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","100.40"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":100.40119171} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"Engineering Thermodynamics (TT), Pfaffenwaldring, Germany","dir":"ltr","width":"216.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","90.41"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":90.40518951} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","80.41"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":80.40918731} {"page":54,"change":"none","str":" thomas.pregger@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"81.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","80.41"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93939874999998,"y":80.40918731} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2.0 °C and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","497.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":497.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 °C. To accomplish this, countries have submitted ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","485.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":485.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","473.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":473.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"climate actions (Rogelj et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"117.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","461.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":461.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.90","461.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.89830017,"y":461.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"). The aim of this research is to develop practical ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","190.90","461.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":190.89830017,"y":461.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"pathways to achieve the Paris climate goals in an economically feasible and sustain","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":449.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","449.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16931152,"y":449.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"able matter.","dir":"ltr","width":"46.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":437.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"The study described in this book focuses on changing the ways in which humans ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","425.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":425.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"produce energy, because energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"177.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","413.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":413.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","230.94","411.69"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.94230651,"y":411.6947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":" emissions are the main driver of cli","dir":"ltr","width":"148.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.94","413.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.94230651,"y":413.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","413.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17230224,"y":413.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"mate change. The analysis also considers the developmental pathways of non-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","401.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":401.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"energy-","dir":"ltr","width":"30.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","389.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":389.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"related emissions and mitigation measures because it is essential to address ","dir":"ltr","width":"303.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","84.22","389.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.22231292,"y":389.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"their contributions if we are to achieve the Paris climate change targets. The analysis ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","377.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":377.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"considers options or ‘scenarios’ for the transition to net zero emissions across all ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","365.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":365.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"sectors that allow unnecessary techno-economic, societal, and environmental risks ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","353.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":353.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"to be avoided.","dir":"ltr","width":"55.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","341.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":341.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"Scenario studies are an important way of linking expected or assumed anthropo","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","329.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86231231,"y":329.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","329.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":329.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"genic activities and their resulting emissions with environmental effects, such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","317.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":317.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"global warming. They also provide important insights into these techno-economic, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","305.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":305.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"societal, and political options and their various effects. Therefore, they are widely ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","293.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":293.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"used to analyse possible carbon emission pathways, to guide decision-makers, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","281.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":281.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"to motivate or justify interventions and developments. However, comprehensive, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","269.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":269.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"transparent, and robust results and conclusions are required as the bases for such ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","257.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":257.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"decision-making. Ideally, this information will come from scenario studies that ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","245.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":245.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"investigate a broad range of possible conditions and available options. Such studies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","233.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":233.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"must adopt a holistic approach and integrate comprehensive state-of-the-art back","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","221.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":221.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","221.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17230224,"y":221.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"ground knowledge, including about the impacts of sectoral and technological ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","209.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":209.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"changes, the influence of market developments, and the effects of certain pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","197.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":197.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"Existing global scenario studies do not provide a comprehensive view of the pos","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","185.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86231231,"y":185.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","185.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18630981,"y":185.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"sible development pathways and technological options required to achieve these ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","173.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":173.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"ambitious climate targets. Each study usually provides a few selected pathways, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","161.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":161.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"representing a narrow range of possible energy futures. One reason for this is that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","149.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":149.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"most scenario models are based on objective cost-optimizing functions, which over","dir":"ltr","width":"328.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","137.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":137.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","137.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":137.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"emphasize the cost efficiency based on uncertain cost assumptions. Another reason ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","125.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":125.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"is that disruptive developments are not usually considered in scenario narratives. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","113.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":113.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"The history of scenario-based systems analysis is littered with many examples of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","101.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":101.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"misleading and fallacious ‘optimized’ scenario pathways and derived policy recom","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","89.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":89.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","89.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20230102,"y":89.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"mendations (see e.g., Mai et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"127.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","77.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8623085,"y":77.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","181.06","77.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.0623169,"y":77.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"; Mohn ","dir":"ltr","width":"31.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","201.06","77.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.0623169,"y":77.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","232.73","77.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.73231506,"y":77.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","252.73","77.19"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":252.73231506,"y":77.1947937} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"(c)","dir":"ltr","width":"11.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.00","586.07"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.00330352,"y":586.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low green","dir":"ltr","width":"276.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.10","586.07"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":94.103302,"y":586.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","371.10","586.07"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":371.09729003,"y":586.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"house gas emissions and climate-resilient development.","dir":"ltr","width":"221.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.10","574.07"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":94.103302,"y":574.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"2.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.94","556.07"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.94329833,"y":556.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of ","dir":"ltr","width":"299.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.44","556.07"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":77.44329833,"y":556.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in ","dir":"ltr","width":"300.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.44","544.07"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":77.44329833,"y":544.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"the light of different national circumstances.","dir":"ltr","width":"176.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.44","532.07"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":77.44329833,"y":532.07470703} {"page":55,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske and T. Pregger ","dir":"ltr","width":"83.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","304.47","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NcrxgmLwkphjFxyydcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.46868896,"y":623.65319824} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","381.26","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":381.2618103,"y":623.65332031} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"Furthermore, in most existing 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C scenarios, achievement of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"climate targets is based on technologies that have significant, and to some extent ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"unknown, disadvantages. These technologies include nuclear power generation, car","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","573.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":573.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"bon capture and sequestration, and geoengineering (see e.g., Rogelj et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"309.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.89","561.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.88830566,"y":561.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"; ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.73","561.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.728302,"y":561.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"Kriegler et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","110.46","549.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.46430206,"y":549.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"). Such scenarios involve considerable risk. Moreover, the reader ","dir":"ltr","width":"257.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.30","549.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.30430603,"y":549.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"is usually given only limited access to the model assumptions and results, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"therefore has limited information about the transparency and traceability of the fac","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","525.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":525.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"tors that influence these model-based analyses and the conclusions drawn from them.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"The primary objective of this report is to provide a holistic picture of what will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"be involved in the transition to 100% renewable energy. This report examines power, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"heat, and fuel supplies on a global scale. Its main focus is on the role of efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"and renewable energies. We aim to contribute a different and complementary view ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"of the global transition to renewable energy. We provide two exemplary develop","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","453.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14230346,"y":453.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"ment pathways for each of the 10 regions of the world. We consider both pathways ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"to be achievable, based on the current state of knowledge, and both are consistent ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"with the “well below 2.0 °C” climate target.","dir":"ltr","width":"175.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"In addition to scenario building, we assess the major economic and infrastruc","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","405.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":405.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"tural implications of the two pathways in comparison with a 5.0 °C ‘reference’ sce","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","393.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15130615,"y":393.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"nario based on the International Energy Agency (IEA)‘s Current Policies scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"published in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"64.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"Word Energy Outlook 2017","dir":"ltr","width":"107.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","118.84","369.16"],"fontName":"GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":118.83830261,"y":369.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":" (IEA-WEO ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.59","369.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.58729553,"y":369.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.74","369.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.73730468,"y":369.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"). We do not claim that ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","296.74","369.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.73730468,"y":369.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"our scenarios are optimal with regard to the economy or society. We want to provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"a transparent basis for the further concretization and development of energy system ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"transformation, and to demonstrate the enormous challenges we face and the need ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"for action. In contrast to most other studies, we have excluded options with large ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"uncertainties about the economic, societal, and environmental risks associated with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"technologies such as nuclear power, unsustainable biomass use, CCS, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"geoengineering.","dir":"ltr","width":"64.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"Another important objective is to combine bottom-up energy scenarios with non-","dir":"ltr","width":"319.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"energy greenhouse gas (GHG)-mitigation scenarios to construct a complete picture ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"of possible climate mitigation pathways and the contributions of the illustrated strat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","249.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15930175,"y":249.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"egies to achieving the Paris targets. Land-use changes and emissions of other GHGs ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"and aerosols are the focus of this analysis. Finally, GHG concentrations, radiative ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"forcing, and the implications of global mean temperature and sea-level rises are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"modelled by applying a feasible model with reduced complexity, which is fre","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","201.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":201.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"quently used for integrated assessment models, as the climate model.","dir":"ltr","width":"275.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"Any scenario building on a global scale must severely simplify the complex tran","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","177.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.149292,"y":177.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"sition processes and their interrelations. The introduction of different new technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","165.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":165.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"gies occurs under very different conditions and at different scales, and an in-depth ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"analysis is required in each case to identify the optimal or feasible solutions. Global ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"governance will also be required for the fast and deep decarbonisation of the world’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"energy systems, especially in relation to carbon pricing and efficiency standards.","dir":"ltr","width":"321.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"However, all perspectives need a common understanding of what is required to ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"meet the ambitious Paris climate targets. We believe that the results of this study ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"will contribute to such a common understanding and will demonstrate how urgent is ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"the need to act.","dir":"ltr","width":"60.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"4.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":56,"change":"none","str":"Introduction","dir":"ltr","width":"42.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0  °C Scenario represents a far more likely pathway than the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. Whereas the 2.0 °C Scenario takes into account unavoidable delays due to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"political, economic, and societal processes and stakeholders, the 1.5  °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"requires immediate action. Under the 1.5  °C Scenario, efficiency measures and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy options must be deployed, and the further development of energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"services must be limited and constrained. Furthermore, for the 1.5 °C Scenario to be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"achievable, it will be essential for developing countries to avoid inefficient tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","525.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":525.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"nologies and behaviours.","dir":"ltr","width":"99.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"References","dir":"ltr","width":"55.75","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","469.16"],"fontName":"BVRIAQ+VnxxvjKxlcpvTrncyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":469.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"IEA-WEO (2017), International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017, OECD Publishing, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","443.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":443.15979003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"Paris/International Energy Agency, Paris, ","dir":"ltr","width":"141.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","433.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":433.16378784} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1787/weo-2017-en","dir":"ltr","width":"124.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","207.84","433.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":207.83580017,"y":433.16378784} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.82","433.16"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.8197937,"y":433.16378784} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"Mai, T.; Logan, J.; Blair, N.; Sullivan, P.; Bazilian, M. 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DOI:","dir":"ltr","width":"51.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","333.20"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":333.20379638} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307","dir":"ltr","width":"122.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","117.33","333.20"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.32779693,"y":333.20379638} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"Rogelj J, Popp A, Calvin KV, Luderer G, Emmerling J, Gernaat D, Fujimori S, Strefler J, Hasegawa ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","323.21"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":323.20779418} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"T, Marangoni G, Krey V, Kriegler E, Riahi K, van Vuuren DP, Doelman J, Drouet L, Edmonds ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","313.21"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":313.211792} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"J, Fricko O, Harmsen M, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Stehfest E, Tavoni M (2018) Scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","303.22"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":303.2157898} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change 8 (4): ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","293.22"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":293.2197876} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"325–332. DOI:","dir":"ltr","width":"51.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","283.22"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":283.2237854} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3","dir":"ltr","width":"147.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","117.33","283.22"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.32779693,"y":283.2237854} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"Kriegler E, Riahi K, Bauer N, Schwanitz VJ, Petermann N, Bosetti V, et  al (2015) Making or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","273.23"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.2277832} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy. 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If material is not ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","129.09"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.09329223} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","119.10"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.09729003} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","109.10"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":109.10128784} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"the copyright holder.","dir":"ltr","width":"70.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","99.11"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.10529327} {"page":57,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske and T. Pregger ","dir":"ltr","width":"83.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","304.47","623.65"],"fontName":"MOGBYU+NcrxgmLwkphjFxyydcTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.46868896,"y":623.65319824} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","381.26","56.71"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":381.26180933999996,"y":56.70920181} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"© The Author(s) 2019 ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","56.71"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+CwjlgqLvlqkdLrqllqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_2","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 2","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"State of Research","dir":"ltr","width":"118.78","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske, Malte Meinshausen, and Kate Dooley","dir":"ltr","width":"211.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"This chapter sets the context for the climate and energy scenario develop","dir":"ltr","width":"285.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.89","465.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.88829706999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","465.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830226,"y":465.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"ment. The first part summarizes the scientific status quo of climate change research ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"and explains how the global climate has changed over recent decades and the likely ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"outcomes if we continue with business as usual and fail to drastically reduce GHG ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"emissions.","dir":"ltr","width":"41.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"The second part reviews the development of the global energy markets during the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"past decade. Trends in the power-, transport- and heating sector in regard to technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","393.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21630763999997,"y":393.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"gies and investments are provided for the year of writing (2018). The developments ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":381.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"put the energy scenarios presented in the following chapters into a global context.","dir":"ltr","width":"321.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":369.13769531} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","325.14"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":325.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Scientific Status Quo of Climate Change Research","dir":"ltr","width":"255.77","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","325.14"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829828999998,"y":325.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"A summary of the latest scientific publications explains how the global climate has ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":297.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"changed in recent decades and the likely outcomes if we continue with ‘business as ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":285.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"usual’ and fail to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.","dir":"ltr","width":"248.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":273.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"2.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","229.14"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829828999998,"y":229.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Basics of Climate Change and Radiative Forcing","dir":"ltr","width":"241.68","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","229.14"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829828999998,"y":229.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"The Earth’s current climate is the result of a delicate balance between incoming short-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":201.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"wave solar radiation and outgoing long-wave radiation that moves back to space. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":189.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Roughly half (165 W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"94.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":177.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","147.86","180.47"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.8567953,"y":180.47169494} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":") the incoming short-wave radiation (340 W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"182.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.77","177.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.76679896,"y":177.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","332.99","180.47"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.99340723999995,"y":180.47169494} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":") reaches the ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.90","177.14"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.9034109,"y":177.14169311} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"33.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","149.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":149.6519928} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","87.25","149.65"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+XhkpnmFpbkdgDhtgnmWingdings-Regular","x":87.25450037999998,"y":149.6519928} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","95.75","149.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.74690149999998,"y":149.6519928} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","139.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":139.6559906} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","129.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":129.6599884} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":" sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","129.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93939874999998,"y":129.6599884} {"page":58,"change":"none","str":"M. Meinshausen · K. 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The rest is reflected back to space by clouds, aerosol particles, or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"scattering gases, such as N","dir":"ltr","width":"108.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","161.99","583.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.99299621,"y":583.65979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":" and O","dir":"ltr","width":"28.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","164.90","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.90299987,"y":585.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","193.32","583.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":193.32080078,"y":583.65979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":" (100  W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"44.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","196.23","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":196.23080444,"y":585.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","240.87","588.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.86880493,"y":588.48980712} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":") or is absorbed by the troposphere ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.78","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.77879333,"y":585.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"(75 W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"34.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879135,"y":573.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","88.66","576.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":88.65920257,"y":576.48980712} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":") (Stephens et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"66.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.57","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.5691986,"y":573.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"19.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","158.51","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.51019287,"y":573.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"). With the exception of clouds and aerosols, this win","dir":"ltr","width":"204.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","177.91","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":177.91020202,"y":573.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17120361,"y":573.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"dow to incoming solar radiation onto Earth’s surface is relatively transparent, so that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":561.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"most of the Sun’s energy that comes towards Earth is absorbed either in the atmosphere ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":549.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"or on the Earth’s surface. This window is our basic heating engine, and the incoming ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":537.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"radiation that is our energy source is somewhat dimmed by aerosol emissions and by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":525.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"changes in the amount of sunlight reflected back to space by changes in land use. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":513.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"However, these are not humanity’s greatest influences on the Earth’s climate.","dir":"ltr","width":"295.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":501.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"There is a second window for radiation, through which outgoing long-wave radi","dir":"ltr","width":"316.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85919952,"y":489.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13919067,"y":489.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"ation passes, and we are much more effectively closing this window than the one for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":477.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"incoming solar radiation. We can imagine that this second atmospheric window ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":465.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"already has a thick curtain across it, largely formed by water vapour. That curtain ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":453.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"prevents surface long-wave radiation from going directly to space. In other words, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":441.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"that curtain acts like a thick blanket. The long-wave radiation that the Earth loses ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":429.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"back into space originates not from its surface but from much higher atmospheric ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":417.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"layers, which tend to be colder. Without absorbers of long-wave radiation in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":405.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"atmosphere, the Earth’s surface would be much colder and inhospitable to humans.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":393.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"To the parts of the outgoing radiation window that are not yet covered by water ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85919952,"y":381.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"vapour, humanity is now adding more layers of absorbers of other long-wave radia","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":369.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14920043,"y":369.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"tion in the form of GHGs. By adding an assortment of GHGs, we are thickening the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":357.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"existing curtain and closing the curtain further across the long-wave radiation win","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":345.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18218994,"y":345.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"dow. Compared with the overall incoming solar radiation at 340 W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"275.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85919952,"y":333.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","328.93","336.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.93481445,"y":336.48968505} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":", the ‘curtain’ ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.93","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.93481445,"y":333.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"generated by human-induced increases in the concentrations of long-lived green","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8548088,"y":321.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20480346,"y":321.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"house gases (CO","dir":"ltr","width":"68.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8548088,"y":309.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","122.28","307.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":122.27529907,"y":307.65979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":", CH","dir":"ltr","width":"19.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.28","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.27529907,"y":309.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","144.79","307.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.79400634,"y":307.65979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":", halocarbons, N","dir":"ltr","width":"66.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","147.79","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.79400634,"y":309.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","214.59","307.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.59120178,"y":307.65979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"O and fluorinated gases) appears to be of ","dir":"ltr","width":"171.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","217.59","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.59120178,"y":309.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"little importance, as it “only” amounts to 2.83 W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"207.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86120986,"y":297.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","261.79","300.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":261.79071044,"y":300.48968505} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":". The addition and subtraction ","dir":"ltr","width":"123.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","264.79","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.79071044,"y":297.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"of many other smaller human influences results in a slightly reduced net current ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86071014,"y":285.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"(year 2011) forcing of 2.29 W/m","dir":"ltr","width":"131.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86071014,"y":273.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","184.94","276.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.93719482,"y":276.48968505} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","187.94","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.93719482,"y":273.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2.1.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","239.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85718917,"y":239.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"Anthropogenic Contribution","dir":"ltr","width":"122.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","239.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.357193,"y":239.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"Beyond reasonable doubt, climate change over the last 250 years has been driven by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","215.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":215.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"anthropogenic activities. In fact, the human-induced release of GHGs into the atmo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","203.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":203.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","203.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20718383,"y":203.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"sphere has the potential to cause more than 100% of the currently observed climate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","191.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":191.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"change. The reason that climate change is not even greater than it is that some ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","179.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":179.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"human-induced changes mask some of the warming attributable to elevated GHG ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","167.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":167.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"concentrations. This masking effect arises from the emission of cooling aerosols ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","155.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":155.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"and changes in land use that increase the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface.","dir":"ltr","width":"298.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","143.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":143.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2.1.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","109.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85718917,"y":109.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"Carbon Budget and Future Warming","dir":"ltr","width":"158.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","109.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.357193,"y":109.15979003} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"Although the anthropogenic contribution to climate change occurs via a large set of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","85.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":85.1597824} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"GHG emissions (the current emission scenarios that feed into CMIP6 include 43 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":73.1597824} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"GHG emission species), and multiple aerosols and land-use changes, there is one ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","61.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":61.1597786} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"dominant influence: carbon dioxide (CO","dir":"ltr","width":"161.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","49.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85718917,"y":49.1597786} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","215.51","47.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.50689697,"y":47.65980148} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":") emissions.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.51","49.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.50689697,"y":49.15980148} {"page":59,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+NhmtflXjhfdsMmbjtlTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"7","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","381.26","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":381.2618103,"y":623.65332031} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"It is not only the magnitude of the anthropogenic emissions of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"263.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","329.34","595.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.33740234,"y":595.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" that makes it ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","332.34","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.33740234,"y":597.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"such a significant driver of human-induced climate change. There is also an inherent ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85741043,"y":585.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"difference between CO","dir":"ltr","width":"94.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85741043,"y":573.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","148.75","571.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.7480011,"y":571.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" and almost all other GHGs and aerosols. Over the time ","dir":"ltr","width":"237.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","151.75","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":151.7480011,"y":573.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"scales of interest here, CO","dir":"ltr","width":"108.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85800933,"y":561.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","162.49","559.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.48570251,"y":559.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" does not have a finite lifetime in the atmosphere. All ","dir":"ltr","width":"223.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","165.49","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.48570251,"y":561.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"other gases react chemically, become photo-dissociated in the stratosphere, or are, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":549.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"for example, consumed by the bacteria in soils. However, once CO","dir":"ltr","width":"263.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85570144,"y":537.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","317.18","535.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.18411254,"y":535.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" is released from ","dir":"ltr","width":"67.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","320.18","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.18411254,"y":537.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"the near-permanent carbon pools of fossil fuel reservoirs, it only travels between a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85411834,"y":525.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"set of ‘active’ carbon pools. These active pools are the land biosphere, the ocean, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85411834,"y":513.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"and the atmosphere. Therefore, if CO","dir":"ltr","width":"152.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85411834,"y":501.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","206.09","499.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.08540344,"y":499.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" is added to one, the level in all three pools ","dir":"ltr","width":"179.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.09","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.08540344,"y":501.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"will rise and over time, a new, higher equilibrium concentration is reached. For ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85541152,"y":489.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"example, whereas CO","dir":"ltr","width":"86.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85541152,"y":477.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","140.82","475.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.81990051,"y":475.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" is consumed by plants during the photosynthesis process and ","dir":"ltr","width":"243.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.82","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.81990051,"y":477.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"then built into plant tissue as carbon, this same carbon is released again as CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":465.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","463.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":463.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"when forests burn, when organic matter in the soil decomposes, and when humans ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":453.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"and other animals oxidize the food they eat. Therefore, a kilogram of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"287.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":441.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.96","439.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.95629882,"y":439.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.96","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.95629882,"y":441.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"will increase the atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"133.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":429.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","187.15","427.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.15080261,"y":427.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" concentration for hundreds or even thousands of ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","190.15","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":190.15080261,"y":429.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"years. Initially, the average CO","dir":"ltr","width":"125.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86080932,"y":417.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","179.49","415.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":179.4855957,"y":415.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" concentration will shoot up by that kilogram, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.49","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.4855957,"y":417.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"then drop relatively quickly again before a new equilibrium is slowly re-established ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":405.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"by the redistribution of carbon into the land biosphere and the ocean.","dir":"ltr","width":"275.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":393.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report highlighted this key difference between CO","dir":"ltr","width":"316.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85559844,"y":381.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","379.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":379.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"and other GHGs. The airborne fraction of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"185.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":369.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","239.17","367.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.16929626,"y":367.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" emissions diminishes over time, as ","dir":"ltr","width":"146.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.17","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.16929626,"y":369.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"for other GHGs. However, the airborne CO","dir":"ltr","width":"175.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8592987,"y":357.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","228.87","355.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.86950683,"y":355.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" fraction does not decline to zero over ","dir":"ltr","width":"156.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.87","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.86950683,"y":357.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"100 years, 1000 years, or even longer periods. Furthermore, carbon-cycle feedback ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85950088,"y":345.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"mechanisms mean that higher CO","dir":"ltr","width":"136.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85950088,"y":333.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","190.85","331.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":190.85029602,"y":331.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" concentrations cause more carbon to remain in ","dir":"ltr","width":"194.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","193.85","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":193.85029602,"y":333.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"the atmosphere. Acting in the other direction, any extra amount of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"278.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":321.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","332.14","319.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.13510131,"y":319.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" in the atmo","dir":"ltr","width":"47.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.14","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.13510131,"y":321.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18508911,"y":321.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"sphere will have less and less effect on radiative forcing, i.e., how much each CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85509872,"y":309.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","307.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":307.65979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"molecule contributes to the warming of the planet. These factors act in concert with ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":297.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"another feature of the climate system: the Earth’s inertia to warming. When the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":285.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"thermostat of your kitchen oven is set to 220 °C, the oven will take a while to heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":273.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"to that level. The situation is much the same with the Earth’s climate. The IPCC ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":261.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"Fifth Assessment Report notes that three effects (the carbon cycle and its feedbacks, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":249.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"the saturation effect of forcing, and the delayed response of the atmosphere to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":237.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"warming) combine to create what is almost a stepwise function in the warming ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":225.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"caused by CO","dir":"ltr","width":"56.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":213.15979003} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","110.55","211.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.55239868,"y":211.6598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" emissions. In other words, every extra kilogram of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"222.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.55","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.55239868,"y":213.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","336.38","211.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.37750244,"y":211.6598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" produces a ","dir":"ltr","width":"48.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.38","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.37750244,"y":213.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"slightly greater increase in temperature than the preceding kilogram, and the warm","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":201.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14749145,"y":201.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"ing effect is much the same 10 years after the emission of that kilogram as it is after ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":189.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"100 or 500 years. Over time, less of the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"174.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":177.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","228.09","175.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.09210205,"y":175.6598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" will remain in the atmosphere, but the ","dir":"ltr","width":"156.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.09","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.09210205,"y":177.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"Earth’s inertia will still cause the temperature to reflect the extra warmth arising ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86211013,"y":165.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"from the initial emission.","dir":"ltr","width":"100.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86211013,"y":153.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"This feature of the Earth’s warming and the carbon cycle can be exploited to ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86210632,"y":141.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"derive a very simple linear relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86211013,"y":129.1598053} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"warming. In fact, the resultant warming is a simple function of the sum of all the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86211013,"y":117.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86211013,"y":105.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","103.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":103.65979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" that has ever been emitted, largely independent of when a certain amount of ","dir":"ltr","width":"318.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":105.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":93.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","91.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":91.65979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":" was emitted in the past. Based on this understanding, we can compute the car","dir":"ltr","width":"311.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":93.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17800903,"y":93.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"bon budgets for specific levels of warming. As a complication, of course, an ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85799026,"y":81.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"unknown amount of warming arises in response to other GHG emissions and aero","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85799026,"y":69.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19699096,"y":69.15979766} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"6.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":60,"change":"none","str":"State of Research","dir":"ltr","width":"60.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","68.73","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":68.73329925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"sols. When deriving carbon budgets, this extra level of warming is normally derived ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"from a range of future emission scenarios. Therefore, the ultimate level of warming ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"is the sum of the linear CO","dir":"ltr","width":"111.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","165.76","571.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.7566986,"y":571.65979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-induced warming level (often described as the ‘tran","dir":"ltr","width":"213.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","168.76","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":168.7566986,"y":573.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1966858,"y":573.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"sient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon’) and a smaller and some","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":561.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20568847,"y":561.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"what uncertain contribution that depends on the other GHGs and aerosols.","dir":"ltr","width":"296.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":549.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","505.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":505.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"Carbon Budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming","dir":"ltr","width":"234.99","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","505.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":505.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report used the results of earth system models to derive ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"its carbon budgets. Earth system models are the most complex computer models we ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"have of how the Earth, its atmosphere, oceans, and vegetation are interacting with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"each other. The IPCC investigated the amounts of cumulative carbon emissions (in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"a multi-gas world) that would be consistent with, for example, temperatures main","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":429.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"tained below either 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C higher than to pre-industrial levels. The recently ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"published IPCC Special Report on the 1.5  °C degree target cites different carbon ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"budget numbers, depending on whether a low estimate of historical temperatures is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"assumed or surface air temperatures are consistently applied. Therefore, there is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"some complexity and uncertainty around the carbon budget, which is related to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"fact that different interpretations can be made about how far we are still away from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C target (for example). If we assume that we are still 0.63 °C away from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C warming (a very optimistic estimate, which is unfortunately based on a too ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"optimistic account of historical emissions), from January 2018 onwards, we can still ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"emit 1320 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"68.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","122.08","307.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":122.08059692,"y":307.65979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":" before reaching 2.0  °C warming (66% chance) and 770 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"257.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.08","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.08059692,"y":309.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","307.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":307.65979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"before reaching 1.5 °C warming (50% chance). These figures must be reduced by a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":297.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"further 100 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"73.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":285.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","127.61","283.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.61370086,"y":283.65979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":" to account for the additional Earth system feedback that has ","dir":"ltr","width":"258.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.61","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.61369323,"y":285.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"occurred over the twenty-first century. However, when a more realistic measure of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":273.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"historical temperature evolution is used (i.e., calculated by consistently using prox","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":261.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17770385,"y":261.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"ies for surface air temperatures over the land and ocean, rather than by mixing ocean ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":249.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"surface water temperatures with air temperatures over land), the carbon budgets are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":237.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"no longer very high. Specifically, the carbon budget required to maintain the Earth’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":225.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"temperature below 2.0  °C, with 66% probability, then decreases to 1170 GtCO2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":213.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"from 1 January 2018 onwards and to 560 GtCO2 for a 50% chance of staying below ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":201.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C (before the extra 100 GtCO2 that must be subtracted for additional Earth ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":189.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"system feedbacks is taken into account; see Table 2.2 in the IPCC Special Report on ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":177.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C warming).","dir":"ltr","width":"69.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":165.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"The substantial difference between these two sets of figures (and also their dif","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8536911,"y":153.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14367675,"y":153.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"ferences from earlier IPCC estimates of the carbon budget) is the focus of a current ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":141.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"intense scientific debate, which is unlikely to be settled in the next few months (see ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":129.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"e.g., Schurer et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"75.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","129.04","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":129.03669738,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","149.04","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.03669738,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","154.10","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.10368347,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"; Hawkins et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"65.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.10","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.10368347,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.43","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.42669677,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"). As already mentioned, one of ","dir":"ltr","width":"128.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","259.43","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.42669677,"y":117.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"the key factors in deriving a carbon budget is the estimated current level of warm","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":105.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19369506,"y":105.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"ing. Among other reasons, the recent warming ‘hiatus’ in temperature may explain ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":93.15979003} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"why the recently derived carbon budgets are more relaxed than expected. When the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":81.1597824} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"‘hiatus’ period substantially influences the level of warming that is taken as a start","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8536911,"y":69.1597824} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21368408,"y":69.1597824} {"page":61,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+NhmtflXjhfdsMmbjtlTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"9","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","381.26","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":381.2618103,"y":623.65332031} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"ing point, the ‘distance’ from 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C might seem larger than it is. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"recent upswing in the global mean temperatures gives us an idea of how much natu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":585.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"ral variability is superimposed on the long-term warming trend. Other points for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"discussion in the determination of carbon budgets include the pre-industrial warm","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":561.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"ing level and the already-mentioned amount of warming induced by non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"302.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","356.27","547.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.27249145,"y":547.65979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":" gases.","dir":"ltr","width":"26.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.27","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.27249145,"y":549.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"This study does not aim to resolve the differences in opinions about carbon bud","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86250305,"y":537.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21749877,"y":537.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"gets, but it does provide emissions pathways that can be considered to be consistent ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":525.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"with both a target level of 1.5 °C warming in the case of the 1.5 °C scenario, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":513.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"with a “well-below 2.0 °C” target level in the case of the 2.0 °C scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"292.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":501.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"Whatever the precise carbon budget, recent effects of climate change provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86250305,"y":489.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"another set of stark reminders that it is more urgent than ever to replace fossil fuels. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":477.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"If we wait for the wild-fire seasons that will occur at global warming levels of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":465.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C or 2.0 °C, with intensified droughts or ever-more intense hurricane, it might ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":453.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"be much too late to avoid their widespread catastrophic impacts. Even at 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":441.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"warming, there is a risk that the continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":429.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"cause sea levels to rise by meters over the coming centuries. Fossil fuels have ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":417.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"undoubtedly allowed great growth in prosperity across the globe, but their replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":405.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20349121,"y":405.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"ment with the cleaner, cheaper and emission-free technologies that are available ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":393.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"today is overdue.","dir":"ltr","width":"68.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":381.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","337.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":337.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"Development of Energy Markets—Past and Present","dir":"ltr","width":"264.08","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","337.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":337.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy technologies have been developing rapidly since the beginning ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"of the century, and they have emerged from niche markets to become mainstream. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"This section provides an overview of the development of renewable energy in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"power, heating, and transport sectors up to the year of writing (2018). These devel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22531127,"y":273.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"opments will put the energy scenarios presented in the following chapters into a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"global context. The research and data in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"2.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.09","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.08828735,"y":249.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":" are based on the REN21 ","dir":"ltr","width":"115.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","275.09","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.08828735,"y":249.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"Renewables 2018—Global Status Report Renewables.","dir":"ltr","width":"217.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"2.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","193.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":193.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"Global Trends in Renewable Energy in 2018","dir":"ltr","width":"219.45","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","193.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":193.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"In 2017, ongoing trends continued: solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power domi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":165.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"nated the global market for new power plants, the price of renewable energy tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":153.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"nologies continued to decline, and fossil fuel prices remained low. A new benchmark ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"was reached, in that the new renewable capacity began to compete favourably with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.1598053} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"existing fossil fuel power plants in some markets (Malik ","dir":"ltr","width":"234.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979766} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","288.15","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":288.14828491,"y":117.15979766} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"). Electrification of ","dir":"ltr","width":"80.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","308.15","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":308.14828491,"y":117.15979766} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"the transport and heating sectors is gaining attention, and although the amount of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979766} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"electrification is currently small, the use of renewable technologies is expected to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979766} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"increase significantly.","dir":"ltr","width":"86.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979766} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"6.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":62,"change":"none","str":"State of Research","dir":"ltr","width":"60.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","68.73","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":68.73329925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"7.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"The growth in solar PV has been remarkable, nearly double that of second-","dir":"ltr","width":"319.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"ranking wind power, and the capacity of new solar PV is greater than the combined ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"increases in the coal, gas, and nuclear capacities (FS-UNEP ","dir":"ltr","width":"259.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.41","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.40829467,"y":573.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). Storage is ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.41","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.40829467,"y":573.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"increasingly used in combination with variable renewables as battery costs decline, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"and solar PV plus storage has started to compete with gas peaking plants (Carroll ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). However, bioenergy (including traditional biomass) remains the leading ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy source in the heating (buildings and industry) and transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"sectors.","dir":"ltr","width":"30.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy’s share of the total final energy consumption has increased ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"only modestly in recent years, despite tremendous growth in the modern renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"energy sector. There are two main reasons for this. One is that the growth in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"overall energy demand (except for the drop in 2009 after the global economic reces","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":465.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"sion) has counteracted the strong forward momentum of modern renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"technologies. The other is the declining share of traditional biomass, as people ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"switch to other forms of energy. Traditional biomass makes up nearly half of all ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy used, and its use has increased at a rate lower than the growth in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"total energy consumption.","dir":"ltr","width":"103.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"Since 2013, the global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"175.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","241.62","391.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":241.61979675,"y":391.65979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":" emissions from fossil fuels have ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","244.62","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":244.61979675,"y":393.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"remained relatively flat. Early estimates based on preliminary data suggest that this ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":381.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"changed in 2017, with global CO","dir":"ltr","width":"138.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":369.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","192.58","367.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.57989501,"y":367.65979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":" emissions growing by around 1.4% (REN21-","dir":"ltr","width":"189.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.58","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.57989501,"y":369.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":357.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","76.44","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.439888,"y":357.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). These increased emissions were primarily due to increased coal con","dir":"ltr","width":"285.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.44","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.439888,"y":357.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20788574,"y":357.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"sumption in China, which grew by 3.7% in 2017 after a 3-year decline (ENERDATA ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":345.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":333.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). This increased Chinese consumption, as well as steady growth of around 4% ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85990142,"y":333.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"in India, is expected to lead to an upturn in global coal use, reversing the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":321.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"global decline observed from 2013 to 2016 (ENERDATA ","dir":"ltr","width":"231.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":309.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","285.68","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":285.67788696,"y":309.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","305.68","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":305.67788696,"y":309.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"In contrast to the upturn in global coal use, in 2017, 26 countries joined the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85990142,"y":297.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"Powering Past Coal Alliance, which is committed to phasing-out coal power by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":285.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2030, with new pledges from Angola, Denmark, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":273.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"the United Kingdom (Carrington ","dir":"ltr","width":"136.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":261.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","189.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.8598938,"y":261.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). An increasing number of companies who ","dir":"ltr","width":"178.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.8598938,"y":261.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"owned, developed or operated coal power plants have moved away from the coal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":249.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"business (Shearer ","dir":"ltr","width":"74.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":237.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","128.58","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.57989501,"y":237.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). Also in 2017, 26 of 28 European Union member states ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.58","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.57989501,"y":237.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"signed an agreement to build no more coal-fired power plants from 2020 onwards, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":225.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"and the Port of Amsterdam, which currently handles 16 million tonnes of coal per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":213.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"year, announced plans to become coal-free by 2030 (Campbell ","dir":"ltr","width":"252.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":201.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.73","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.72988891,"y":201.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.73","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.72988891,"y":201.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"The global oil price averaged USD 52.5 per barrel in 2017, equivalent to about ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85990142,"y":189.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"half the record high prices that occurred between 2011 and 2014, although it was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":177.15979003} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"still almost double the prices from 1996 to 2005 (Statista ","dir":"ltr","width":"230.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":165.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.76","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.7598877,"y":165.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). Natural gas prices ","dir":"ltr","width":"83.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","304.76","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.7598877,"y":165.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"fell from 2013 to 2016, and early indicators suggest that prices remained low or ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":153.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"decreased further in 2017 (BP ","dir":"ltr","width":"121.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":141.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","175.23","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.22990417,"y":141.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"). Low fossil fuel prices have challenged renew","dir":"ltr","width":"187.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.23","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.22990417,"y":141.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22988891,"y":141.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"able energy markets, especially in the heating and transport sectors (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":129.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.65","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.64990234,"y":129.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.65","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.64990234,"y":129.15977478} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"The value of direct global fossil fuel consumption subsidies in 2016 was esti","dir":"ltr","width":"316.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85990142,"y":117.1597824} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1599121,"y":117.1597824} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"mated to be about USD 360 billion, a 15% reduction since 2015—but still more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":105.1597824} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"than 20% higher than the total renewable industry turnover in 2017 (IEA-WEB ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":93.1597824} {"page":63,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+NhmtflXjhfdsMmbjtlTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"7.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.53","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.53030395,"y":623.65332031} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"). The value of fossil fuel subsidies also increases by an order of magnitude if ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"externalities are considered (IMF ","dir":"ltr","width":"134.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","188.25","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":188.24830627,"y":585.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"). Although the Group of Twenty (G20) reaf","dir":"ltr","width":"173.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","208.25","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":208.24830627,"y":585.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328857,"y":585.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"firmed their 2009 commitment to phasing-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2017, progress has been slow and there are calls from large investors, insurers, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"civil society to both increase transparency and accelerate the process (G20-","dir":"ltr","width":"305.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.68","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.6783142,"y":549.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"). 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Following the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a technical meet","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":477.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"ing on its implementation took place in Bonn, Germany, in November 2017 at the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) (UNFCCC ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.63","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.6282959,"y":453.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"). 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The number of cities pow","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15930175,"y":369.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"ered by at least 70% renewable electricity has more than doubled in 2 years, from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"42 in 2015 to 101 in 2017. These cities now include Auckland, Brasilia, Nairobi, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"and Oslo (CDP-WEB ","dir":"ltr","width":"89.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.02","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.01829528,"y":333.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","163.02","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.01829528,"y":333.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"Carbon pricing policies, which include carbon taxes and emission trading ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"schemes, were in place in 64 jurisdictions around the world in 2017, up from 61 in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+CwjlgqLvlqkdLrqllqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":73.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":" In December 2017 (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"137.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","76.36","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.35829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","214.17","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.16830444,"y":297.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"), China launched the first phase of its ","dir":"ltr","width":"153.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","234.17","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":234.16830444,"y":297.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"long-awaited nationwide carbon emissions trading scheme, which will focus on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"power sector. Carbon trading will be based in Shanghai and will include about 1700 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"power companies emitting more than 3 billion tonnes of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"252.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","306.54","259.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.54348754,"y":259.65979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":" annually (Xu and ","dir":"ltr","width":"79.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.54","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.54348754,"y":261.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"Mason ","dir":"ltr","width":"29.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85348892,"y":249.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.06","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.06349182,"y":249.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"). For comparison, the emissions trading scheme of the European Union ","dir":"ltr","width":"284.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.06","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.06349182,"y":249.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"included around 1.7 billion tonnes of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"174.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85348892,"y":237.15979003} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","228.56","235.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.55670166,"y":235.6598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":" in 2016 (EC ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.56","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.55670166,"y":237.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","292.49","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":292.48669433,"y":237.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"). Reforms to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","312.49","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":312.48669433,"y":237.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"European Union scheme were agreed upon at the end of 2017, which will reduce the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":225.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"number of emission certificates issued and accelerate the cancellation of surplus ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":213.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"certificates (Agora ","dir":"ltr","width":"76.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":201.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.50","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.4967041,"y":201.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.50","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.4967041,"y":201.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"The global investment in renewable energy in 2017 (excluding hydropower ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85669708,"y":189.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"plants larger than 50 megawatts [MW]) was USD 280 billion (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":177.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.70","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.6966858,"y":177.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"), ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.70","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.6966858,"y":177.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"up by 2% from 2016, but 13% below the all-time high, which occurred in 2015. It ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":165.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"is noteworthy that each dollar represents more capacity on the ground as prices per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":153.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"GW decrease. Nearly all the investment was in either solar PV (58%) or wind power ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":141.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"(38%). Developing countries accounted for the largest share of investment for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":129.1598053} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"third consecutive year, at 63% of the total investment. China alone accounted for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":117.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"45% of global investment, with a 30% increase since 2016. The United States was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":105.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"next, with 14%, followed by Japan (5%) and India (4%). Investment remained ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":93.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"steady or trended upwards in Latin America and the USA, but has been falling in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":81.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"Europe since about 2010, with a drop of 30% from 2016 to 2017 (UNEP-FS ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":69.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.65","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.646698,"y":69.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.65","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.646698,"y":69.15979766} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"6.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":64,"change":"none","str":"State of Research","dir":"ltr","width":"60.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","68.73","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":68.73329925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"12","dir":"ltr","width":"8.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"Pressure to diversify and stable growth in the renewables sector over the past ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"decade has increased the interest of the fossil fuel industry in renewables. Large oil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"corporations more than doubled their acquisitions, project investments, and venture ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"capital stakes in renewable energy in 2016 relative to those in 2015. This increased ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"the investment in clean energy companies to USD 6.2 billion over the past 15 years, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"with more than 70% of deals involving solar PV or wind, and 16% involving biofu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21029663,"y":537.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"els (Bloomberg ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.24","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.2382965,"y":525.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"). However, this is dwarfed by the spending of these companies ","dir":"ltr","width":"250.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","137.24","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":137.2382965,"y":525.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"on fossil fuels. One estimate is that renewables account for about 3% of the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"annual spending (around USD 100 billion) by the world’s five biggest oil companies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"(Schneyer and Bousso ","dir":"ltr","width":"95.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.94","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.93829345,"y":489.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"). Bank finance for fossil fuels increased in 2017 by ","dir":"ltr","width":"220.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","168.94","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":168.93829345,"y":489.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"11% relative to that in 2016, after a significant decline in 2016 (RAN ","dir":"ltr","width":"279.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","332.87","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.86828613,"y":477.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.87","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.86828613,"y":477.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"In 2017, as in previous years, renewables saw the greatest increases in capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"in the power sector, whereas the growth of renewables in the heating, cooling, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"transport sectors was comparatively slow. Sector coupling—the interconnection of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"power, heating, and transport, and particularly the electrification of heating and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"transport—is gaining increasing attention as a way to increase the uptake of renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":417.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"ables by the transport and thermal sectors. Sector coupling also allows the integra","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":405.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"tion of large shares of variable renewable energy, although this is still at an early ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"stage. For example, China is specifically encouraging the electrification of heating, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"manufacturing, and transport in high-renewable areas, including promoting the use ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"of renewable electricity for heating to reduce the curtailment of wind, solar PV, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"hydropower. Several USA states are examining options for electrification, specifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":345.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"cally to increase the overall renewable energy share (NEEP ","dir":"ltr","width":"239.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","293.23","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.22531127,"y":333.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.23","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.22531127,"y":333.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2.2.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"Trends in the Renewable Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"164.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","297.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"The capacity for generating renewable power saw its largest annual increase ever in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2017, with an estimated 178 GW of capacity added. The total global renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"power capacity increased by almost 9% relative to that in 2016. Solar PV additions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"reached a record high and represented about 55% of newly installed renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"power capacity in 2017. The increase in the solar PV capacity was greater than the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"combined net additions to the fossil fuel and nuclear capacities. For the first time, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"the installed solar PV capacity surpassed the global operating capacity of nuclear ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"power. Wind and hydropower installations were in second and third positions, con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":189.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"tributing about 29% and 11% of the increase in renewable generation capacity, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"respectively (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"109.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.89","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.88729858,"y":165.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.89","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.88729858,"y":165.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"In 2017, renewables accounted for an estimated 70% of net additions to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"global power-generating capacity, up from 63% in 2016 (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.46","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.45831298,"y":141.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"). The ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","361.46","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.45831298,"y":141.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"cost-competitiveness of renewable power generation continued to improve. Wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"power and solar PV are now competitive with the generation of new fossil fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"energy in many markets, and even with existing fossil fuel generation in some mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":105.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"kets. The costs of bio-electricity, hydropower, and geothermal power projects com-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"missioned in 2017 were mostly within the range of the cost of fossil-fuel-fired ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"electricity generation. Offshore wind prices also fell significantly in 2017, as com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":69.1597824} {"page":65,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+NhmtflXjhfdsMmbjtlTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.24","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.23791503,"y":623.65332031} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"petitive tenders in Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands resulted in bids that were ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"competitive with new conventional power generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"214.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"By the end of 2017, the countries with the greatest total installed renewable elec","dir":"ltr","width":"316.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22729492,"y":573.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"tric capacities were China, the USA, Brazil, Germany, and Canada. When only solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"and wind capacities are considered, the top countries were China, the USA, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"Germany, followed by Japan, India, and Italy, and then by Spain and the UK, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"had about equal amounts of capacity by the year’s end.","dir":"ltr","width":"219.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"Seventeen countries have more than 90% renewable electricity, with the majority ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"supplied almost completely by hydropower. However, three of these, Uruguay, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"Costa Rica, and Ethiopia, also have significant contributions from wind power ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"(32%, 10%, and 7%, respectively) (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"200.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","254.54","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.53829956,"y":477.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"). Increasing proportions of ","dir":"ltr","width":"113.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","274.54","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":274.53829956,"y":477.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"variable renewable electricity (VRE) must be integrated into electricity systems, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"and VRE penetration reached locally significant levels in 2017. The countries lead-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"ing the way with wind and solar penetration are Denmark (52%), Uruguay (32%), ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"and Cape Verde (31%), with another three countries at or above the 25% VRE pen-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"etration mark. Several countries and regions integrated much higher shares of VRE ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"into their energy systems as instantaneous shares of the total demand for short peri","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":405.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"ods during 2017, e.g., South Australia (more than 100% of load from wind power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"alone, and 44% of load from solar PV alone on another occasion), Germany (66% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"of load from wind and solar combined), Texas (54% of load from wind alone), and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"Ireland (60% of load from wind alone) (Parkinson ","dir":"ltr","width":"203.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","257.00","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.99630737,"y":357.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","277.00","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.99630737,"y":357.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"Curtailment—the forced reduction of wind and solar generation—is an indicator ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"of grid integration challenges. In six of the jurisdictions with the highest VRE pen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":333.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"etration, the curtailment rates were low (0–6%) in 2016 (Wynn ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.07","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.06829833,"y":321.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"). Although ","dir":"ltr","width":"49.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","338.91","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.90829467,"y":321.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"curtailment initially tends to increase as the VRE share increases, some jurisdictions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"have successfully introduced measures, such as transmission upgrades, that have ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"significantly reduced curtailment (Wynn ","dir":"ltr","width":"165.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","219.69","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.68829345,"y":285.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"). Integration challenges have led to ","dir":"ltr","width":"149.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.53","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.52830505,"y":285.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"high curtailment rates in China, the world’s largest wind and solar PV market (ECNS.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"CN ","dir":"ltr","width":"16.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","69.99","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":69.9882965,"y":261.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"). These were reduced in 2017, with the average curtailment of wind power ","dir":"ltr","width":"298.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.83","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.82830047,"y":261.15979003} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"for the year at around 12%, down from 17% in 2016, and the average curtailment of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"solar PV was 6–7%, down 4.3% relative to that in 2016 (Haugwitz ","dir":"ltr","width":"266.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.96","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.95831298,"y":237.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.80","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.79830932,"y":237.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"The ongoing increase in the growth and geographic expansion of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"energy was driven by the continued decline in the prices for renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"technologies (in particular, for solar PV and wind power), caused by the increasing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"power demand in some countries and by targeted renewable energy support mecha","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":189.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"nisms.","dir":"ltr","width":"25.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"44","dir":"ltr","width":"6.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","79.70","180.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.69809722,"y":180.48980712} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":" Solar PV and onshore wind power are now competitive with new fossil fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"301.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","85.70","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":85.69809722,"y":177.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"generation in an increasing number of locations, due in part to declines in system ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":165.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"component prices and to improvements in generation efficiency. The bid prices for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":153.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"offshore wind power also dropped significantly in Europe during 2016 (FT ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":141.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"12.9.","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":129.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.8581009,"y":129.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.8581009,"y":129.1598053} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"Such declines in cost are particularly important in developing and emerging ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8581009,"y":117.15979766} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"economies, and in isolated electric systems (such as on islands or in isolated rural ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":105.15979766} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"communities) where electricity prices tend to be high (if they are not heavily subsi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":93.15979766} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13708496,"y":93.15979766} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"dized), where there is a shortage of generation, and where renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":81.15979766} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"resources are particularly plentiful, making renewable electricity more competitive ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8581009,"y":69.15979766} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"6.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":66,"change":"none","str":"State of Research","dir":"ltr","width":"60.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","68.73","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman","x":68.73329925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"14","dir":"ltr","width":"7.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"relative to other options. Many developing countries are racing to bring new power-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"generating capacities online to meet rapidly increasing electricity demands, often ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"turning to renewable technologies (which may be grid-connected or off-grid) ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"through policies such as tendering or feed-in tariffs, in order to achieve the desired ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"growth quickly.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"Approximately 1.06 billion people, most in sub-Saharan Africa, lived without ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"electricity in 2016, 223 million fewer than in 2012 (IEA-WEO ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.03","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.0282898,"y":525.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"; IEA-EAO ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.03","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.0282898,"y":525.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). Distributed renewables for energy access (DREA) systems were serving an ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"estimated 300 million people at the end of 2016, and they comprised about 6% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"new electricity connections worldwide between 2012 and 2016 (IRENA-P ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.33","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.32629394,"y":489.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). In ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.33","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.32629394,"y":489.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"places where the electricity grid does not reach or is unreliable, DREA technologies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"provide a cost-effective option to improve energy access. For example, about 13% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"of the population of Bangladesh gained access to electricity through solar home ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"systems (SHS), and more than 50% of the off-grid population in Kenya is served by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"DREA systems (Dahlberg ","dir":"ltr","width":"107.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","161.18","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.17829895,"y":429.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). Off-grid solar devices, such as solar lanterns and ","dir":"ltr","width":"206.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","181.18","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.17829895,"y":429.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"SHS, displayed annual growth rates of 60% between 2013 and 2017 (Dahlberg ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2.2.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"Heating and Cooling","dir":"ltr","width":"88.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","369.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"Energy use for heating and cooling is estimated to have accounted for just over half ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"of the total world final energy consumption in 2017, with about half of that used for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"industrial process heat (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"129.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.51","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.50830078,"y":321.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). Around 27% of this was supplied by renew","dir":"ltr","width":"178.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","203.51","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.50830078,"y":321.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20629882,"y":321.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"ables. The largest share of renewable heating was from traditional biomass, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"continued to supply about 16.4% of the global heat demand, predominantly for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"cooking in the developing world (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"177.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.83","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.82829284,"y":285.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). Renewable energy—excluding ","dir":"ltr","width":"137.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.83","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.82829284,"y":285.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"traditional biomass—supplied approximately 9% of the total global heat production ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"in 2017, up from about 6% in 2008 (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.52","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.51829528,"y":261.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","275.52","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.51831054,"y":261.15979003} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"Renewable heating and cooling receives much less attention than renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"power generation, and has been identified as the ‘sleeping giant of energy policy’ ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"for the past decade (IEA-Collier ","dir":"ltr","width":"139.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.99","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.9882965,"y":225.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). The use of modern renewable heat has ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","212.99","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":212.9882965,"y":225.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"increased at an average rate close to 3% per year since 2008, gradually increasing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"its share of heat supply, but it lags well behind the average annual increase of 17% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"in modern renewables for electricity (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.06","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.05830383,"y":189.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). Renewable energy technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"120.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.06","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.05828857,"y":189.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":189.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"gies for heating and cooling include a variety of solar thermal collectors for differ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":177.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"ent temperature levels; geothermal and air-sourced heat pumps; bioenergy used in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"traditional combustion applications or converted to gaseous, liquid, or solid fuels ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"and subsequently used for heat; and any type of renewable electricity used for heat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":141.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"ing. Heat may be supplied by on-site equipment or by a district heating network.","dir":"ltr","width":"321.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"A wide range of temperature requirements exist, from temperatures of around ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"40–70  °C for space and water heating in buildings, to steam at several hundred ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"degrees Celsius for some industrial processes (Averfalk et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"263.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","317.03","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.0282898,"y":93.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"; USA-EPA ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","337.03","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.0282898,"y":93.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"). The variety in renewable heating systems and applications is much greater ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","81.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"than in the renewable power sector, which makes standardization to reduce costs by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":67,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+NhmtflXjhfdsMmbjtlTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"15","dir":"ltr","width":"8.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.20","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.19799804,"y":623.65332031} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"economies of scale more challenging, and makes it difficult for policy makers to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"find effective mechanisms to increase the renewable share. Trends in the use of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"modern renewable energy for heating vary according to the technology, although ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"the relative shares of the main renewable heat technologies have remained stable for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"the past few years. In 2017, bioenergy (excluding traditional biomass) accounted for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"the greatest share, providing an estimated 68% of renewable heat, followed by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"renewable electricity at 18%, solar thermal at around 7%, district heating at 4% ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"(which was nearly all bioenergy), and geothermal at 2% (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.70","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.69729614,"y":513.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.70","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.69729614,"y":513.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"Although additional bio-heat and solar thermal capacities were added in 2017, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"growth in both markets continued to slow. The trends in direct geothermal heating ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"are unclear.","dir":"ltr","width":"46.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"Bioenergy systems provide individual heating in residential and medium-sized ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"office buildings, either as stand-alone systems or in addition to an existing central ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"heating system, and bioenergy also accounts for 95% of district heating (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"). District heating systems are suitable for use in densely populated regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"315.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"with an annual heating demand during ","dir":"ltr","width":"156.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"≥","dir":"ltr","width":"6.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","210.25","417.16"],"fontName":"FBKGDD+DntjppKxpvkvHkthdrSTIXGeneral-Regular","x":210.24830627,"y":417.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"4 months of the year, such as in the north","dir":"ltr","width":"165.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","217.10","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.09829711,"y":417.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13128662,"y":417.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"ern part of China, Denmark, Germany, Japan, Poland, Russia, Sweden, the UK, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"the northern United States (IRENA-RE-H ","dir":"ltr","width":"168.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","222.56","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.55830383,"y":393.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"). However, district heating supplies ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.56","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.55830383,"y":393.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"a very small proportion of global heating needs. The majority of district heating ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"systems are fuelled by either coal or gas, with the share of renewables ranging from ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"0% to 42% (IRENA-RE-H ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.91","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.90829467,"y":357.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"). Switching existing districting heating systems ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","187.91","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.90829467,"y":357.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"from fossil fuels to renewables has considerable potential (IRENA-RE-H ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.72","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.71728515,"y":345.15979003} {"page":68,"change":"none","str":"). 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The overall renewable share of road transport energy use was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"estimated to be 4.2% in 2016, with nearly all of that from biofuels (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.66","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.65829467,"y":429.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.66","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.65829467,"y":429.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"In 2017, global bioethanol production increased by 2.5% relative to that in 2016, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"with a slight decline in Brazil offset by increases in the USA, Europe, and China ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"(IEA OIL ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.75","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.74829864,"y":393.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"). Biodiesel production remained relatively stable in 2017, following ","dir":"ltr","width":"272.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.75","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.74829864,"y":393.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"a 9% increase in 2016 relative to 2015 (IEA OIL ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.19","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.18730163,"y":381.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","271.19","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":271.18728637,"y":381.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"The technology for producing, purifying, and upgrading biogas for use in trans","dir":"ltr","width":"316.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":369.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"port is relatively mature, and the numbers of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"associated infrastructure are increasing slowly but steadily internationally. Many ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"countries have relatively well-developed NGV infrastructures, and NGVs provide a ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"good entry point for biogas in the transport sector (IRENA-RV-","dir":"ltr","width":"257.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.76","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.75830078,"y":321.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"). The largest ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.76","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.75830078,"y":321.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"producers of biogas for vehicle fuel in 2016 were Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"the UK, and the USA (IRENA-RV-","dir":"ltr","width":"138.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.06","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.05830383,"y":297.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"). The main barriers to the further expansion ","dir":"ltr","width":"175.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","212.06","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":212.05830383,"y":297.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"of biogas for transport are economic, with supply costs of USD 0.22–1.55 per cubic ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"metre (m","dir":"ltr","width":"36.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","89.92","276.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.91760253,"y":276.48968505} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"), compared with natural gas prices, which are as low as USD 0.13 per m","dir":"ltr","width":"287.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","92.92","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.91760253,"y":273.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","380.01","276.49"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":380.0118103,"y":276.48968505} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":". ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.01","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.0118103,"y":273.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"However, the lack of consistent regulation and access to gas grids are also signifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":261.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16079711,"y":261.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"cant barriers (IRENA-RV-2017).","dir":"ltr","width":"130.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":249.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"Historically, the electrification of the transport sector has been limited to trains, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":237.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"light rail, and some buses. In 2017, there were signs that the entire sector would ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":225.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"open to electrification. Fully electric passenger cars, scooters, and bicycles are rap","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":213.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18179321,"y":213.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"idly becoming common-place, and prototypes for heavy-duty trucks, planes, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":201.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"ships were released in 2017 (Hawkins ","dir":"ltr","width":"154.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":189.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","208.12","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":208.11979675,"y":189.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.12","189.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.11979675,"y":189.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"The number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road passed the three million mark ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":177.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"in 2017 (Guardian 25.12.","dir":"ltr","width":"101.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":165.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","155.49","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.49180603,"y":165.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"). Annual sales are still only a very small proportion ","dir":"ltr","width":"212.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","175.49","165.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.49180603,"y":165.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"of the global total (1%), but this is set to change. In 2017, partly influenced by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":153.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"scandal over diesel emissions cheating, five countries announced their intention to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":141.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"ban sales of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030 (India, the Netherlands, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":129.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"Slovenia) or 2040 (France and the UK) (Bloomberg 11.","dir":"ltr","width":"226.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":117.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.98","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.98080444,"y":117.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"). The announcement ","dir":"ltr","width":"88.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","299.98","117.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.98080444,"y":117.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"of electric product lines by car manufacturers in 2017 was another breakthrough. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":105.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"However, the number of EVs on the road is dwarfed by the number of electric bikes. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":93.15979003} {"page":69,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+NhmtflXjhfdsMmbjtlTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"17","dir":"ltr","width":"7.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.52","623.65"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.51760864,"y":623.65332031} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"The global fleet was estimated to be around 200 million at the end of 2016, most of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"them in China, and 30% of bicycles sold in the Netherlands were e-bikes in 2017 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"(Wang ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.91","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.9083023,"y":573.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"). Electric two- and three-wheel vehicles account for less than 0.5% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","102.91","573.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.9083023,"y":573.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"all transport energy use, but they account for most of the remaining renewable share ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"after biofuels (IEA-RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"94.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.00","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.99830627,"y":549.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","168.00","549.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.99830627,"y":549.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Further electrification of the transport sector will potentially create a new market ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"for renewable energy and ease the integration of variable renewable energy, if mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","525.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":525.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"ket and policy settings ensure that the charging patterns are effectively harmonized ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"with the requirements of electricity systems. There are already examples of coun","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","501.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":501.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"tries and cities supplying electricity for both heavy and light rail from renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"electricity, including the Netherlands (BI ","dir":"ltr","width":"168.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","222.35","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.3473053,"y":477.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"), Delhi (Times of India ","dir":"ltr","width":"99.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.35","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.3473053,"y":477.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.26","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.2572937,"y":477.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"), and ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.26","477.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.2572937,"y":477.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Santiago de Chile (CT ","dir":"ltr","width":"92.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","146.08","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.07829284,"y":465.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","166.08","465.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":166.07829284,"y":465.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Road transport accounts for 67% of global transport energy use, and two-thirds ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"of that is used for passenger transport.","dir":"ltr","width":"152.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Aviation accounts for around 11% of the total energy used in transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"(US-EIA-","dir":"ltr","width":"39.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.29","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.28829956,"y":417.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"). In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.29","417.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.28829956,"y":417.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"(ICAO), a UN agency, announced a landmark agreement to mitigate GHG emis","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","405.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21929931,"y":405.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"sions in the aviation sector. By the end of 2017, 106 states representing 90.8% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"global air traffic had settled on a global emissions reduction scheme (Guardian ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"6.10.","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"). Together with technical and operational improvements, this agreement ","dir":"ltr","width":"294.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.86","369.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"will support the production and use of sustainable aviation fuels, specifically drop-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"in fuels produced from biomass and different types of waste (ICAO ","dir":"ltr","width":"270.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.20","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.19830322,"y":345.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"). In 2017, ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.20","345.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.19830322,"y":345.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Norway announced a target of 100% electric short-haul flights by 2040 (Guardian ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"18.1.","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.86","321.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Shipping consumes around 12% of the global energy used in transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"326.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"(US-EIA-","dir":"ltr","width":"39.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.29","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.28829956,"y":297.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":") and is responsible for approximately 2.0% of global CO","dir":"ltr","width":"243.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.29","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.28829956,"y":297.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","356.34","295.66"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.33850097,"y":295.65979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"22.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.34","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.33850097,"y":297.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","297.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17849731,"y":297.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"sions. There are multiple entry points for renewable energy: ships can incorporate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":285.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"wind (sails) and solar energy directly, and can use biofuels, synthetic fuels, or ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":273.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen produced with renewable electricity for propulsion. China saw the launch ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":261.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"of the world’s first all-electric cargo ship in 2017, and in Sweden, two large ferries ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":249.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"were converted from diesel to electricity in 2017 (China Daily 14.11.","dir":"ltr","width":"270.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":237.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.83","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.82849121,"y":237.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"). In 2017, ","dir":"ltr","width":"42.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.83","237.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.82849121,"y":237.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) Marine Environment Protection ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":225.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"Committee (MEPC) approved a roadmap (2017–2023) to develop a strategy for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":213.15979003} {"page":70,"change":"none","str":"reducing GHG emissions from ships. 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_3","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 3","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"89.78","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, ","dir":"ltr","width":"248.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, Malte Meinshausen, Kate Dooley, ","dir":"ltr","width":"315.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","528.03"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":528.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"C. Briggs, E. Dominish, D. Giurco, Nick Florin, Tom Morris, and Kriti Nagrath","dir":"ltr","width":"331.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","516.03"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":516.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","466.03"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":466.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"A detailed overview of the methodologies used to develop the 2.0 °C and ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.52","466.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.51830194999998,"y":466.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C scenario presented in this book. Starting with the overall modelling approach, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","454.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":454.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"the interaction of seven different models is explained which are used to calculate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","442.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":442.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"and developed detailed scenarios for greenhouse gas emission and energy pathways ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","430.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":430.02770996} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"to stay within a 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limit. 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Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"33.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","255.27"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":255.26539611} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","87.25","255.27"],"fontName":"HVBIOU+TjlmstPwbvwvTypwppWingdings-Regular","x":87.25450037999998,"y":255.26539611} {"page":77,"change":"none","str":") · C. Briggs · E. Dominish · D. Giurco · N. Florin · T. Morris · K. 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The power market cannot function optimally ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":177.1598053} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"without long-term infrastructure planning. Grid modifications and the roll-out of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":165.1598053} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"smart metering infrastructure, for example, require several years to implement. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":153.1598053} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"These technologies form the basis of the energy market and allow energy trading. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":141.1598053} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the time required for infrastructure planning and other substantial trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":129.1598053} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18188476,"y":129.1598053} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"formation processes must be considered in the scenario-building approach.","dir":"ltr","width":"298.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":117.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"Although numerous energy scenarios that provide 100% renewable energy at the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85790252,"y":105.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"community, state, and national levels have been published in the past decade ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":93.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"(Elliston and MacGill ","dir":"ltr","width":"88.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","142.23","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.22790527,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"; Teske and Dominish ","dir":"ltr","width":"87.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.23","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.22790527,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.00","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.00090026,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"; Klaus et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"51.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","270.00","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.000885,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"2010","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","321.25","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.25390625,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"; Teske and ","dir":"ltr","width":"46.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.25","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.25390625,"y":81.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"Brown ","dir":"ltr","width":"29.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":69.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.85790252,"y":69.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"), only a handful of analyses have been performed on a global level. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"284.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","102.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.85790252,"y":69.15979766} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"main research projects on 100% renewable energy supplies published between 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":57.15980148} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"and 2018 were:","dir":"ltr","width":"61.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","45.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":45.15980148} {"page":78,"change":"none","str":"S. 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The data available and the objectives of the analysis ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"significantly influence the model architecture and approach. It is very important ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"to differentiate between an energy model and a scenario. An energy model is the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"technical basis for a scenario. Scenarios are the results of the energy model, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"which have been calculated with different input data and assumptions. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"energy model is used in this study to develop long-term scenarios for the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"systems across all sectors (power, heat, transport, and industry) without the ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"application of cost-optimization based on uncertain cost assumptions. However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"an ex-post analysis of costs and investments shows the main economic effects of ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"the pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"Power system model [R]E 24/7: This simulates the electricity system on an ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"hourly basis and at geographic resolution to assess the requirements for infra","dir":"ltr","width":"316.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":441.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"structure, such as grid connections, between different regions and electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"storages, depending on the demand profiles and power-generation characteristics ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"(Teske ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.60","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.59829711,"y":405.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"). High-penetration or renewable-energy-only scenarios will contain ","dir":"ltr","width":"273.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.60","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.59829711,"y":405.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"significant proportions of variable solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"because they are inexpensive. Therefore, a power system model is required to ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"assess the demand and supply patterns, the efficiency of power generation, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"the resulting infrastructural needs. On the generation side, meteorological data, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"typically in 1 h steps, are required and historical solar and wind data are used to ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"calculate the possible renewable power generation. On the demand side, either ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"historical demand curves are used, or—if unavailable—demand curves are cal","dir":"ltr","width":"316.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":321.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"culated based on assumptions of consumer behaviour, the electrical equipment ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"and common electrical appliances.","dir":"ltr","width":"138.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":279.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.89","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.88829803,"y":279.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the interactions between the energy- and ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.39","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.38829803,"y":279.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"GIS-based models. The climate model is not directly connected but provided the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.15979003} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"probabilistic temperatures for the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. The land-use and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.15977478} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"32.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.15977478} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","86.08","241.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.07800292,"y":241.6598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":" emissions modules provide information on additional gases based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"299.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.08","243.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.07800292,"y":243.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"73.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":231.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","127.43","229.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.42960357,"y":229.6598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":" emissions (output of the energy model). Besides the climate and ","dir":"ltr","width":"257.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.43","231.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.42959594,"y":231.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"energy models, the effects on employment and the requirements for selected metal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85960006,"y":219.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"resources have been calculated (see Sects. ","dir":"ltr","width":"170.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85960006,"y":207.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"3.6","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","224.28","207.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.27859497,"y":207.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":" and ","dir":"ltr","width":"19.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.78","207.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.77859497,"y":207.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"3.7","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.22","207.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.21859741,"y":207.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","268.72","207.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":268.71859741,"y":207.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","169.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":169.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"Global Mapping—Renewable Energy Potential in Space-","dir":"ltr","width":"291.32","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","169.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":169.1598053} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"Constrained Environments: [R]E-SPACE","dir":"ltr","width":"211.75","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","155.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":155.1558075} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"The primary purpose of GIS mapping is to ascertain the renewable energy resources ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"(primarily solar and wind) available in each region. It also provides an overview of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.15979766} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"the existing electricity infrastructures for fossil fuel and renewable sources.","dir":"ltr","width":"300.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":103.15979766} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"In this project, mapping was undertaken with the computer software QGIS. QGIS ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","91.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":91.15979766} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"is a free, cross-platform, open-source desktop GIS application that supports the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.15979766} {"page":81,"change":"none","str":"viewing, editing, and analysis of geo-spatial data. 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{"page":84,"change":"none","str":"32","dir":"ltr","width":"8.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"Wind speed data at different levels, in metres per second (m/s), were obtained ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"from Vaisala ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.10","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.09829711,"y":585.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":". For this analysis, wind speed at a height of 80 m was used to ","dir":"ltr","width":"260.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","128.10","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.09829711,"y":585.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"determine the electricity-generation potential. Wind speeds are categorized and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"mapped within the range of 5–12 m/s to gain an understanding of the potential gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22531127,"y":561.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"eration across the regions. Speeds under 5 m/s are ignored when plotting optimal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"sites. Land-cover types were constrained to bare soil and grasslands. The model ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"only accounts for the onshore wind-generation potential.","dir":"ltr","width":"226.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"Land-cover data were obtained from the Global Land Cover 2000 project (Global ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"Land Cover ","dir":"ltr","width":"51.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.95","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.94830322,"y":501.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"), hosted by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. ","dir":"ltr","width":"263.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","124.95","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.94830322,"y":501.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"The classification was based on the FAO Land Cover Classification System.","dir":"ltr","width":"303.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"Similarly, solar resource data were obtained from the Global Solar Atlas (Global ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"Solar Atlas ","dir":"ltr","width":"45.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","99.87","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.8683014,"y":465.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"), owned by the World Bank Group and provided by SolarGis. Data ","dir":"ltr","width":"267.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","119.87","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":119.8683014,"y":465.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"categorized by direct normal irradiation were mapped to estimate the potential PVs ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"in the different regions. To avoid conflict with competing uses of land, only the land-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"cover types ‘bare soil’ and ‘grasslands’ were included in the analysis.","dir":"ltr","width":"277.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"The area of land available for potential solar and wind power generation was ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"calculated at the cluster level using the Geometry tool in the QGIS-processing tool","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":405.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"box. Intersects (overlapping areas between different layers) were created between ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"the transmission-level layers and the solar/wind utility vector layers to break down ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"the total land area available into clusters. A correction was put in place manually for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"sites that intersected the cluster boundaries and were part of two clusters.","dir":"ltr","width":"292.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"For some maps (India, China, the Middle East, and OECD Pacific) with large ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"data files, the analysis was performed using raster files for land use and renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"potentials. The raster tools ‘clipper’ (used to cut a raster file to the size of the clus","dir":"ltr","width":"328.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23431396,"y":321.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"ter) and ‘merge’ (used to extract common areas between two layers) were used. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"input was fed into the calculations for the [R]E 24/7 Model.","dir":"ltr","width":"239.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"The regional maps illustrate the different clusters that were identified for sce","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":285.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"nario modelling. The existing infrastructure maps highlight the power plants and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"transmission networks in the regions. The wind and solar potential maps indicate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"the land available for new power generation given the current land-use patterns. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"These maps show utility-scale installations. There are much larger expanses of land ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"available for small-scale distributed energy generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"219.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"The following types of maps were created for 10 world regions:","dir":"ltr","width":"255.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"Regional breakdown into a maximum of eight clusters:","dir":"ltr","width":"219.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"The example given in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"113.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","180.69","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":180.68829345,"y":177.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":" shows OECD North America—one of the 10 ","dir":"ltr","width":"196.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","193.19","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":193.18829345,"y":177.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"world regions—broken down into eight sub-regions (clusters). The [R]E 24/7 power ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"system analysis (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"104.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","158.80","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.79829406,"y":153.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":") calculates an electricity demand and supply scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"216.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","171.30","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.29829406,"y":153.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"for each of those eight clusters. The clusters can exchange electricity with each ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"other (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"3.8","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.73","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.728302,"y":129.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.23","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.228302,"y":129.15977478} {"page":84,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.65319824} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"33","dir":"ltr","width":"8.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.22","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.2243042,"y":623.65332031} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","350.66"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":350.6592102} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America broken down into eight sub-regions","dir":"ltr","width":"198.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.15","350.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.14980316,"y":350.6592102} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.15"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15200042} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"Current electricity infrastructure in China","dir":"ltr","width":"141.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.15","69.15"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.14980316,"y":69.15200042} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.64953613} {"page":85,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.64953613} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"34","dir":"ltr","width":"8.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Current electricity infrastructure","dir":"ltr","width":"129.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"The example given in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","579.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":579.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.22","579.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.2183075,"y":579.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":" shows the current electricity infrastructure—","dir":"ltr","width":"190.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","194.72","579.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":194.7183075,"y":579.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"power plants generating > 1 MW—and high-voltage transmission lines in China. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":567.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"For the development of future electricity scenarios, it is important to know whether ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":555.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"the generation capacity for dispatch and the transmission capacity to transport elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":543.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","543.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":543.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"tricity from utility-scale wind and/or solar power plants to demand centres are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":531.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"available.","dir":"ltr","width":"38.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":519.1597900300001} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Potential sites for onshore wind power","dir":"ltr","width":"153.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":501.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","483.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":483.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.70","483.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.69828796,"y":483.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":" gives an overview of the potential onshore wind-power-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.20","483.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.19828796,"y":483.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"sites in Africa. Only the blue areas are available for new wind development, whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":471.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"the remaining regions are used for nature conservation, agriculture, settlement, or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":459.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"other forms of land use that do not allow the installation of wind farms. The darker ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":447.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"the blue area, the better the wind potential.","dir":"ltr","width":"170.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":435.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Potential sites for utility-scale solar power plants","dir":"ltr","width":"195.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":417.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":399.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.06","399.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.05828857,"y":399.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":" shows the suitable sites for utility-scale solar power sites in Central ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.56","399.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.55828857,"y":399.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"and South America. The scale from yellow to orange to red indicates increasing ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":387.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"available solar radiation. Red areas—in this example, the Atacama Desert in Chile—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":375.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"indicate the best solar resources and are suitable for both solar PV power plants and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":363.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"concentrated solar power plants.","dir":"ltr","width":"129.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":351.15979003000007} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","76.65"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":76.65200042000005} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"Potential sites for onshore wind generation in Africa","dir":"ltr","width":"177.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.15","76.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.14980316,"y":76.65200042000005} {"page":86,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.6531982400002} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"35","dir":"ltr","width":"8.09","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.21","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.21240234,"y":623.65332031} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","311.89"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":311.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"Transport Energy Model-TRAEM","dir":"ltr","width":"176.31","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","311.89"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":311.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"3.3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","285.88"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":285.88250732} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"Transport Model Structure","dir":"ltr","width":"132.91","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","285.88"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":285.88250732} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"The transport scenario model TRAEM (TRAnsport Energy Model) allows the mod","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":257.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2033081,"y":257.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"elling of long-term transport developments for the 10 world regions. It is divided ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","245.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":245.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"into several sub-models according to the transport modes, which are discussed ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","233.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":233.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"below. All 10 world regions are aggregated in the world model using a passenger–","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","221.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":221.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"km (pkm) and tonne–km (tkm) activity-based bottom-up approach. The model cal","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","209.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":209.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","209.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":209.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"culates the final energy demand by multiplying the specific transport demand of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","197.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":197.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"each transport mode with the powertrain-specific energy demands. This gives the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","185.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":185.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"annual energy demand for electricity, fossil fuels (diesel, petrol), natural gas, bio-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","173.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":173.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"based fuels, synthetically produced fuels (also called ‘synfuels’), and hydrogen for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","161.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":161.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"each of the 10 world regions. The calculation is performed in 5-year steps, from ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","149.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":149.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"2015 to 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"55.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","137.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":137.88650512} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"For all scenarios (5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C), the 2015 energy demand by region ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","125.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":125.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"was adjusted to the IEA World Energy Balances 2017 and is therefore identical in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","113.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":113.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"all scenarios. The projected total energy demands for the reference scenario (5.0 °C) ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","101.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":101.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"from 2020 until 2040 follow the IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 Current Policies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","89.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":89.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"Scenario (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","77.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":77.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"2017b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","114.27","77.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.26830291,"y":77.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"). The total energy demands by region for the years 2045 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"248.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","139.27","77.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.26829528,"y":77.8864975} {"page":87,"change":"none","str":"2050 were extrapolated linearly based on the 2035–2040 change rates. 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3.5 t gross vehicle weight [GVW]);","dir":"ltr","width":"225.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":237.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":65.85839843,"y":225.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Medium-duty trucks (3.5–15 t GVW);","dir":"ltr","width":"153.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":225.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":65.85839843,"y":213.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Heavy-duty trucks (> 15 t GVW).","dir":"ltr","width":"135.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":213.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Rail freight:","dir":"ltr","width":"48.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85839843,"y":195.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":65.85839843,"y":177.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Ordinary freight, intermodal, and low-density high-value freight trains are ","dir":"ltr","width":"311.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":177.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"distinguished.","dir":"ltr","width":"55.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":165.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Navigation (freight):","dir":"ltr","width":"82.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85839843,"y":147.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":65.85839843,"y":129.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Inland navigation;","dir":"ltr","width":"72.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":129.15978621} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":65.85839843,"y":117.15978620999998} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"Coastal ships for domestic navigation and maritime shipping are distinguished ","dir":"ltr","width":"309.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":117.15978620999998} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"in the model.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.85839843,"y":105.15978620999998} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"We assume that energy efficiency improves over time. The changes in the pow","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","87.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85839843,"y":87.15978620999998} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","87.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14941406,"y":87.15978620999998} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"ertrain shares over time are mainly driven by fleet electrification. Energy intensities ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85839843,"y":75.15978620999998} {"page":88,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.6531944200001} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"37","dir":"ltr","width":"8.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.12","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.12399291,"y":623.65332031} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"per pkm and per tkm are region-dependent, based on the occupancy rates of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"passenger transport modes and the loading factors for freight vehicles. The energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"demands of all transport modes (passenger and freight) are summed to the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"energy demand by region.","dir":"ltr","width":"104.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"Backcasting transport scenarios are modelled iteratively by fitting the drivetrain ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"shares, transport performance (pkm or tkm), and modal shares until the specific ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"downstream CO","dir":"ltr","width":"64.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","118.68","523.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.68139648,"y":523.65979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":" budgets of the world regions are met. The emission reductions are ","dir":"ltr","width":"266.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.68","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.68139648,"y":525.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"based on a combination of technical, operational, and behavioural measures during ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":513.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"modelling—such as powertrain electrification, the use of biomass-based and syn","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":501.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1604004,"y":501.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"thetically produced fuels, efficiency increases within transport modes, and modal ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":489.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"shifts towards more-efficient modes.","dir":"ltr","width":"145.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":477.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"The replacement of internal combustion engines by electric powertrains is priori","dir":"ltr","width":"316.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86139678,"y":465.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16140747,"y":465.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"tized in our modelling. However, the rapid electrification of fleets is quantity-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":453.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"restricted over the immediately subsequent years until the capacities for battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":441.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"production, battery recharging, hydrogen production, and refuelling stations have ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":429.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"ramped up ubiquitously. Therefore, a shift towards more energy-efficient and elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":417.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2013855,"y":417.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"trified passenger and freight transport modes, such as railways, is required and is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":405.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"therefore one measure implemented in the model. Such modal shifts are especially ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":393.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"required in the OECD countries, to reduce carbon emissions while maintaining ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":381.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"transport performance at the current levels. Supply constraints on biomass and espe","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":369.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22640991,"y":369.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"cially synfuel production will also limit rapid decarbonisation right from the start, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":357.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"and motivate modal shifts and general restrictions to overall transport activities by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":345.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"carbon-intensive transport modes. The 1.5  °C Scenario requires electrification, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":333.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"modal shifts, and alternative fuel uptake to start earlier than the 2.0 °C Scenario and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":321.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"particularly the 5.0  °C Scenario, and their more rapid implementation. However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":309.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"because electrification will remain quantity-restricted until the 2020s in any case, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":297.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"widespread modal shifts and changes in mobility behaviour are modelled more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":285.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"stringently within the 1.5 °C Scenario. The detailed modelling results are discussed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":273.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8614006,"y":261.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.25","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.2514038,"y":261.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.25","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.2514038,"y":261.15979003} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"3.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","217.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":217.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"Transport Data","dir":"ltr","width":"75.90","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","217.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":217.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"We have derived historical and current data on transport activities (pkm, tkm) and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"total energy consumption levels according to transport mode from statistical agen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":177.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"cies, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, etc., including:","dir":"ltr","width":"288.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":147.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"IEA Mobility Model;","dir":"ltr","width":"85.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","147.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":147.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":135.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"OECD statistics;","dir":"ltr","width":"66.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","135.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":135.1598053} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":123.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"World Bank Open Data;","dir":"ltr","width":"96.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","123.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":123.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":111.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"National and supranational statistical bodies;","dir":"ltr","width":"179.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","111.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":111.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"UIC IEA Railway Handbook;","dir":"ltr","width":"118.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","99.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":99.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":87.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"UIC Railway Synopsis;","dir":"ltr","width":"94.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","87.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":87.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":75.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"Railway operators data;","dir":"ltr","width":"94.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","75.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":75.15979766} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":89,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"38","dir":"ltr","width":"8.35","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"HBEFA (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren);","dir":"ltr","width":"161.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"EIA Open Data.","dir":"ltr","width":"64.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"However, statistical data are often unavailable or lack consistency with other ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","567.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":567.15979003} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"derived data (for example, on vehicle stock or occupancy rates in certain world ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":90,"change":"none","str":"regions). 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The scenarios are based on detailed input data sets that consider defined ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","507.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":507.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"targets, renewable and fossil fuel energy potentials, and specific parameters for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","495.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":495.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"power, heat, and fuel generation in the energy systems. 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Mesap/PlaNet is an accounting framework that allows the calcula","dir":"ltr","width":"266.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","115.46","447.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":115.45658874,"y":447.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","447.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.206604,"y":447.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"tion of detailed and complete energy system balances, from demand to energy sup","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","435.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":435.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","435.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17559814,"y":435.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"ply, in 5-year steps up to 2050. The model consists of two independent modules:","dir":"ltr","width":"321.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","423.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":423.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","405.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":405.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"a flow calculation module, which balances energy supply and demand annually, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","405.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":405.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"and","dir":"ltr","width":"14.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","393.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":393.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","381.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":381.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"a cost calculation module for the calculation of the corresponding investment, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","381.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":381.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"generation, and fuel costs.","dir":"ltr","width":"104.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","369.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":369.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"The strength of the model framework is in its flexible and transparent modelling ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","351.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":351.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"of different normative paths. The approach requires exogenously defined expansion ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","339.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":339.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"rates and market shares. It explicitly renounces economic optimization because of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","327.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":327.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"the uncertainty of long-term cost assumptions. 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The model acts as a frame","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":279.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19558715,"y":279.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"work for integrating a wide variety of aspects of the transformation of energy sys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","267.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":267.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","267.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19558715,"y":267.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"tems, and therefore differs fundamentally from optimization models. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"339.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","255.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":255.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"standardized cost calculation for the power sector is used for the ex-post evaluation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","243.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":243.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"of the scenarios. The modelling framework combines a database with a graphical ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","231.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":231.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"programming interface. The database allows the management of both the input ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","219.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":219.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"parameters and the simulation output for the different scenarios calculated. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","207.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":207.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"graphical interface allows the definition of the structure of the modelled system and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","195.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":195.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"the quantitative interdependences between the individual structural elements at dif","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","183.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":183.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","183.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19058227,"y":183.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"ferent structural depths.","dir":"ltr","width":"94.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","171.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":171.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"The scope of the scenario model allows the increasing electrification processes ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":159.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"in the heating and transport sectors to be considered, such as electric vehicles, elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","147.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":147.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","147.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22659301,"y":147.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"tric boilers, heat pumps, and hydrogen use. Co-generation in different sectors is also ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","135.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":135.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"explicitly represented in the model. The EM is implemented in this framework and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","123.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":123.79382324} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","111.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":111.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"3.6","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.48","111.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.47659301,"y":111.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":" gives an overview of its structure.","dir":"ltr","width":"137.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.98","111.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.97659301,"y":111.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"Details of the structure and relevant model equations were also recently described ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","99.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8665924,"y":99.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"by Simon et  al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"69.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","87.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8665886,"y":87.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","123.32","87.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.31658935,"y":87.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"). The model calculates the energy flows of a system on an ","dir":"ltr","width":"245.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.32","87.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.31658935,"y":87.79380798} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":91,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":92,"change":"none","str":"40","dir":"ltr","width":"8.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":92,"change":"none","str":"annual basis. These flows connect a set of technologies in each sector and for all ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","358.70"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":358.69799804} {"page":92,"change":"none","str":"relevant energy carriers, using linear equations. The equation system is solved ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","346.70"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":346.69799804} {"page":92,"change":"none","str":"sequentially and the model thus balances demand and supply. This approach is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","334.70"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":334.69799804} {"page":92,"change":"none","str":"applied over the scenario period in 5-year steps until 2050. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"266.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.97","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.96728515,"y":585.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.47","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.46728515,"y":585.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"The model consists of a broad technology database across the heat, fuel, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","567.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":567.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"power sectors, including sector coupling via combined heat and power (CHP), ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"power-to-heat, and power-to-fuels technologies, and electric mobility.","dir":"ltr","width":"278.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"For both heat and electricity production, the model distinguishes between differ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","531.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":531.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","531.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":531.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"ent technologies, characterized by their primary energy sources, efficiency, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":519.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"costs. Examples include biomass or gas burners, heat pumps, solar thermal and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":507.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"geothermal technologies, and several power-generation technologies, such as PV, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":495.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"onshore and offshore wind, biomass, gas, coal, nuclear, and CHP. In the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":483.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"sector, the model is directly linked to the results of the transport model (Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":471.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","367.22","471.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":367.2243042,"y":471.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.72","471.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.7243042,"y":471.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"For each technology, the market share with respect to total heat or electricity pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":459.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","459.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":459.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"duction is specified according to a range of assumptions, including targets, potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":447.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"costs, and societal, structural, and economic barriers. The model eventually calcu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":435.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","435.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20529174,"y":435.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"lates the annual energy flows for a set of energy carriers.","dir":"ltr","width":"225.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":423.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"The main inputs of the Energy System Model are:","dir":"ltr","width":"199.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","411.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":411.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":393.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"IEA World Energy Balances 2017 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":393.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"2016a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.65","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.64828491,"y":393.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":") for the calibration of the model ","dir":"ltr","width":"135.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","253.09","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.08828735,"y":393.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"for each world region in the years 2005–2015;","dir":"ltr","width":"184.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":381.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"IEA World Energy Outlook 2016/2017 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"177.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"2016b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.34","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.33529663,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","268.34","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":268.33529663,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"2017a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","272.84","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.83828735,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":") for the parameteriza","dir":"ltr","width":"84.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","297.28","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":297.2782898,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":369.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"tion of the model for the reference case (5.0 °C Scenario);","dir":"ltr","width":"231.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":357.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":345.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"various studies and statistics used for the assumption of further specific values, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":345.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"such as the power-to-heat ratios of co-generation plants, coefficients of perfor","dir":"ltr","width":"316.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":333.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1782837,"y":333.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"mance of heat pumps, and the efficiency of hydrogen electrolysers and synthetic ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":321.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"fuel production plants;","dir":"ltr","width":"90.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":309.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":297.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"narratives and assumptions regarding the further development of demand and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":297.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"supply technologies in line with the climate targets and by taking into account ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":285.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"RES potentials and costs, stable market developments, and the constraints ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":273.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"imposed by production capacities and regional implementation. These assump","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":261.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1822815,"y":261.15979003} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"tions and narratives are described in detail in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"207.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":249.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.20","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.19729614,"y":249.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":", Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","278.20","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":278.19729614,"y":249.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","305.42","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":305.41729736,"y":249.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","310.42","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":310.41729736,"y":249.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"The main outputs of the model are:","dir":"ltr","width":"140.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","231.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":231.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":213.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"the final and primary energy demands, broken down by fuel, technology, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":213.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"energy sectors, as defined by the International Energy Agency (IEA)—industry, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":201.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"power generation, transport, and other (buildings, forestry, and fisheries);","dir":"ltr","width":"292.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":189.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":177.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"the results broken down by the three main types of energy demand—electricity, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":177.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"heating, and mobility (transport); specifically, the energy required, technology ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":165.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"deployment, and financial investment for each of these energy demand types;","dir":"ltr","width":"308.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":153.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":141.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"total energy budget, which is the total cost of energy for the whole power ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":141.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"system;","dir":"ltr","width":"30.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":129.15977478} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":117.1597824} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"73.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":117.1597824} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","139.82","115.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.8171997,"y":115.65979766} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":" emissions over the projected period.","dir":"ltr","width":"146.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","142.82","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.8171997,"y":117.15979766} {"page":94,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.65319824} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"43","dir":"ltr","width":"8.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.24","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.24468994,"y":623.65332031} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"[R]E 24/7 (UTS-ISF)","dir":"ltr","width":"106.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","595.79"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"The long-term scenarios calculated with the EM for 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"(see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.13","555.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.12830352,"y":555.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":") are used as the input data for the dispatch modelling described in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","106.63","555.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":106.62830352,"y":555.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"section. The [R]E 24/7 model transforms a long-term scenario for a specific year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"into hourly load and generation curves. The annual electricity demand is trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","531.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":531.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"formed into an hourly load curve (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"174.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.23","519.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.22729492,"y":519.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":") and the annual power generation is ","dir":"ltr","width":"147.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","240.73","519.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.72729492,"y":519.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"transformed into a generation time series for variable power generation from ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"regional solar and wind data and dispatchable power-generation data via inter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","495.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":495.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"changeable dispatch orders (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.7","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.63","483.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.6282959,"y":483.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"). The [R]E24/7 model is an accounting ","dir":"ltr","width":"166.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","222.13","483.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.1282959,"y":483.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"framework used to calculate the complete power system balance at 1 h resolution, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"and consists of two modules:","dir":"ltr","width":"116.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"1.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"a flow calculation module, which balances the energy supply and demand; and","dir":"ltr","width":"313.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","441.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":441.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"2.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"a cost calculation module, which calculates the corresponding generation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","429.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":429.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"fuel costs.","dir":"ltr","width":"40.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","417.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":417.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"The [R]E 24/7 model examines the influence of the dispatch order of power-","dir":"ltr","width":"319.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"generation technologies, the storage technologies, and the interconnection of up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"eight regions. It calculates the impact of these variables on the overall system costs. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":375.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"[R]E 24/7 also calculates load curves for the residential, industry, and transport sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","363.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":363.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"tors based on the sector-specific energy intensity factors and applications that are in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":351.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"use. The factors and applications used depend on the GDP and population (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","327.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":327.79382324} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","283.79"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":283.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"[R]E 24/7—Model Structure","dir":"ltr","width":"141.35","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","283.79"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":283.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"29.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.60","255.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.59829711,"y":255.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":") has developed a three-level grid model called ‘[R]E 24/7’ as a grid ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.60","255.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.59829711,"y":255.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"analysis tool that differentiates between four voltage levels. For this analysis, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"model has been simplified to eight interconnected clusters to reduce the data volume ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"and the calculation time. High resolution, with multiple voltage levels, is impracti","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","219.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":219.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"cal for a global energy scenario, because the required input data would not be avail","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","207.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":207.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"able for all regions and—if the data were available—the calculation time would be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"extremely long. Therefore, the simplified [R]E 24/7 model uses eight clusters that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"can exchange electricity on an hourly basis with a user-defined interconnection ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"capacity (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.8","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","131.07","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":131.06829833,"y":159.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"). Different voltage levels are not calculated. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"209.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.57","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.56829833,"y":159.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"3.7","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","353.66","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":353.65829467,"y":159.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":" pro","dir":"ltr","width":"16.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.16","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.15829467,"y":159.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","159.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1782837,"y":159.79379272} {"page":95,"change":"none","str":"vides an overview of the different modules of the [R]E 24/7 model. 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industry","dir":"ltr","width":"71.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.63","189.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":96.62930297,"y":189.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.8592987,"y":189.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"(c)","dir":"ltr","width":"11.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","54.42","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":54.41930007,"y":177.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"lack of standardized data on industry energy demands, especially for the elec","dir":"ltr","width":"311.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.52","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.51930236,"y":177.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21929931,"y":177.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"tricity sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.52","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.51930236,"y":165.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"Despite the high degree of uncertainty, we decided to apply this methodology ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","147.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8592987,"y":147.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"because after an initial calibration, the current statistically recorded industrial elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":135.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","135.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18530273,"y":135.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"tricity consumption in some well-documented countries (e.g., USA) and regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":123.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"(e.g., Europe) can be recalculated with a tolerance of ± 10%. However, this method","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":111.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","111.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13928222,"y":111.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"ology requires further research.","dir":"ltr","width":"125.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":99.15979003} {"page":98,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.65319824} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"47","dir":"ltr","width":"8.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.23","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.23199462,"y":623.65332031} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"3.5.5","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"Load Distribution by Cluster","dir":"ltr","width":"141.46","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","595.79"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"The spatial concept of the [R]E 24/7 is shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"214.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"3.8","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","268.37","567.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":268.36828613,"y":567.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":". The model calculates the ","dir":"ltr","width":"107.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","280.87","567.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.86828613,"y":567.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"load distribution for one region, which can be broken down further to a maximum ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"of eight sub-regions (or ‘clusters’). Therefore, the 10 world regions modelled in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"analysis are calculated separately. OECD North America, for example, includes ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"Canada, USA, and Mexico. These three countries can be subdivided into up to eight ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"clusters. A cluster can be a country (e.g., Mexico), a province/state of a country ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"(e.g., Alaska), or a selection of several provinces/states (e.g., West Canada = British ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"Columbia, Alberta, Yukon Territory, and North-West Territories). A cluster is ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"defined to capture the existing interconnected power supply areas of a region, a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"country, or across several provinces. In Europe, for example, one cluster is the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), a region within Europe that has only very ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"limited interconnection with the central European grid system (UCT-E). However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":435.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"data availability and the model limitations (maximum of eight clusters) force sim","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","423.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":423.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"plifications, and countries or state/provinces must be bundled together in one cluster ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"even though they may have significant differences. Therefore, further research is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"required to obtain more detailed results for selected countries or provinces.","dir":"ltr","width":"299.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"The distribution of the regional load, calculated in Sects. ","dir":"ltr","width":"238.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":375.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","304.64","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.63830566,"y":375.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":" and ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","317.14","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.13830566,"y":375.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","338.80","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.79830932,"y":375.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":", is con","dir":"ltr","width":"30.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","351.30","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":351.29830932,"y":375.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1282959,"y":375.79382324} {"page":99,"change":"none","str":"nected to the projected GDP, population, and power plant capacities for each cluster. 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In the next step, the result","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":100,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22729492,"y":525.15979003} {"page":100,"change":"none","str":"ing population and GDP values for each cluster are multiplied by the normalized ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":100,"change":"none","str":"load curves calculated as described in Sects. 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Each cluster has an hourly ","dir":"ltr","width":"111.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","275.93","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.9283142,"y":501.15979003} {"page":100,"change":"none","str":"load curve over one entire year (8760  h). 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{"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Ocean","dir":"ltr","width":"21.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","331.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":331.5049401800003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"40.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","331.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":331.5049401800003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Oil","dir":"ltr","width":"10.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","319.67"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":319.6729394500003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen Geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"66.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","319.67"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":319.6729394500003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Gas","dir":"ltr","width":"13.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","307.84"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":307.8409387100003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Ocean","dir":"ltr","width":"21.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","307.84"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":307.8409387100003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen bio","dir":"ltr","width":"37.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","296.01"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":296.00893798000027} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Gas","dir":"ltr","width":"13.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","296.01"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":296.00893798000027} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"64.45","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","284.18"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":284.17693725000026} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen Gas","dir":"ltr","width":"39.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","284.18"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":284.17693725000026} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen gas","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","272.34"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":272.34493651000025} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"16.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","272.34"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":272.34493651000025} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen coal","dir":"ltr","width":"40.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","260.51"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":260.51293578000025} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"CoGen Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"42.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","260.51"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":260.51293578000025} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"16.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","248.68"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":248.68091979000027} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Brown Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"41.11","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","248.68"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":248.68091979000027} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Brown coal","dir":"ltr","width":"39.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","236.85"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":236.84893432000027} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Oil","dir":"ltr","width":"10.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","236.85"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":236.84893432000027} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"26.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.35","225.02"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.34648895999996,"y":225.01693358000026} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"26.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.85","225.02"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84648896,"y":225.01693358000026} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.68"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85699081999995,"y":623.6839257700003} {"page":103,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.68"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60699462999995,"y":623.6839257700003} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"52","dir":"ltr","width":"7.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"To utilize climatization technologies for buildings (air-conditioning, electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","507.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":507.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"heating), the demand curves for households and services are connected to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"cluster-","dir":"ltr","width":"29.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"specific temperature time series. The demand for lighting is connected to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"304.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.65","483.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.64830017,"y":483.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"solar time series to accommodate the variability in lighting demand across the year, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"especially in northern and southern regions, which have significantly longer day","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","459.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":459.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"light periods in summer and very short daylight periods in winter.","dir":"ltr","width":"262.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"3.5.7.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.94"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":411.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Solar and Wind Time Series","dir":"ltr","width":"119.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","411.94"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":411.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"For every region included in the model, hourly output traces are utilized for onshore ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"wind, offshore wind, utility solar, CSP, and roof-top solar energies. Given the num","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":375.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","375.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":375.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"ber of clusters and the geographic extent of the study, and the uncertainty associated ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"with the prediction of the spatial distribution of future generation systems, an repre","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":351.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","351.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":351.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"sentative site was selected for each of the five generation types. For utility solar and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"CSP, the indicative sites were situated in areas of high solar output, close to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"transmission network or regional centre or city, and in areas without competing land ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"uses (as described in the mapping methodology). A roof-top solar indicative site ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"was chosen in the demographic centre of the region, usually the capital city.","dir":"ltr","width":"302.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"The onshore wind indicative site selected for each region was situated in an area ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","279.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":279.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"of non-competing land use with the highest average wind speed and close to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"transmission network or regional centre or city. The offshore wind indicative site ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"was an area within 100 km of the shore with the highest average wind speed, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"close to the transmission network or regional centre or city. In some cases, no ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"acceptable wind area within a region was available, in which case the wind potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"was set to zero.","dir":"ltr","width":"61.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Once the indicative sites were chosen, the hourly output values for typical solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","195.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":195.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"arrays and wind farms were selected using the database of Stefan Pfenninger at ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"ETH Zurich and Iain Stafell (Renewables.ninja; see above). The model methodol","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","171.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":171.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"ogy used by the Renewables.ninja database is described by Pfenninger and Staffell ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"(","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":147.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"2016a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","57.19","147.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.18830108,"y":147.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.63","147.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.62830352,"y":147.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","86.40","147.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.39830017,"y":147.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"), and is based on weather data from global reanalysis models and satellite ","dir":"ltr","width":"296.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.40","147.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.39830017,"y":147.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"observations (Rienecker and Suarez ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":135.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.92","135.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":205.91830444,"y":135.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"; Müller and Pfeifroth, ","dir":"ltr","width":"98.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","225.92","135.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.91830444,"y":135.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.77","135.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.76831054,"y":135.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"; SARAH ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.77","135.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.76831054,"y":135.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":123.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"). It was assumed that the utility solar sites were optimized, and as such, a tilt ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","123.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":123.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"angle was selected within a couple of degrees of the latitude of the indicative site. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":111.93829345} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"For roof-top solar, this was left at the default 35° because it is likely that the panels ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.9382782} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"matched the roof tilt.","dir":"ltr","width":"83.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":87.9382782} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Table 3.7","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","597.33"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.33428955} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Technology ","dir":"ltr","width":"45.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.19","597.33"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.19329833,"y":597.33428955} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"options—storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","587.34"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":587.33831787} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"42.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","577.34"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":577.34228515} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Storage","dir":"ltr","width":"25.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","217.35","595.73"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.34648895999996,"y":595.73431302} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Input","dir":"ltr","width":"17.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","309.84","584.23"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.8434982299999,"y":584.22527982} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Technology option","dir":"ltr","width":"63.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","217.35","584.23"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.34648895999996,"y":584.22527982} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Battery","dir":"ltr","width":"25.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","217.35","571.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.34648895999996,"y":571.5773306} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Battery","dir":"ltr","width":"25.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","309.84","571.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.8434982299999,"y":571.5773306} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Hydro pump STORAGE","dir":"ltr","width":"84.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","217.35","559.75"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.34648895999996,"y":559.74529936} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"Hydro Pump storage","dir":"ltr","width":"70.35","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","309.84","559.75"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.8434982299999,"y":559.74529936} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"H2","dir":"ltr","width":"10.39","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","217.35","547.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.34648895999996,"y":547.91332913} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"H2","dir":"ltr","width":"10.39","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","309.84","547.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.8434982299999,"y":547.91332913} {"page":104,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99840545999996,"y":623.6531973} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"53","dir":"ltr","width":"7.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.31","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.3085022,"y":623.65332031} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"The wind outputs for both onshore and offshore wind were calculated at an 80 m ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"hub height because this reflects the wind data sets used in the mapping exercise. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Although onshore wind and offshore wind are likely be higher than this, 80 m was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"considered a reasonable approximation and made our model consistent with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"mapping-based predictions. A turbine model of Vestas V90 2000 was used.","dir":"ltr","width":"299.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Limitations:","dir":"ltr","width":"52.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":531.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"The solar and wind resources can differ within one cluster. In some ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","112.64","531.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":112.63780212,"y":531.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"cases, there are even different climate zones within one large cluster, e.g., in ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":519.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Australia and Russia. Therefore, the potential generation output can vary within a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":507.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"cluster and across the model period (2020–2050). Furthermore, some clusters ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":495.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"extend significantly across several time zones, such as Russia. The model can only ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":483.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"take into account the time variations in sunrise and sunset between different clus","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":471.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","471.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14779663,"y":471.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"ters, but not within a single cluster. The effect of time differences within clusters ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":459.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"with a large east–west spread requires high-resolution modelling, which is possible ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":447.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"with the [R]E 24/7 model but beyond the scope of this research project.","dir":"ltr","width":"285.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":435.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"3.5.8","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","391.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":391.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Interconnection Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"133.68","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","391.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":391.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"The interconnection capacities are set as a function of the total generation capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"within a cluster and a manually set percentage. Defining the relevant percentage of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":351.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"a country’s overall (peak) capacity and/or total generation capacity is based on ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"European energy policy. The European Union (EU) proposed in 2002 that all EU ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"member states must establish a transmission capacity of at least 10% of the peak ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"demand (in megawatts) by 2005 (EMP-BARCELONA ","dir":"ltr","width":"226.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"2002","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","280.16","303.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.15829467,"y":303.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"). The EU developed ","dir":"ltr","width":"88.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","300.16","303.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":300.15829467,"y":303.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"this regulation further, improved the calculation method, and increased the target to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"15% (EU-EG ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":279.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.00","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.99829864,"y":279.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"), whereas the [R]E 24/7 model implements a simplified approach ","dir":"ltr","width":"258.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","129.00","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.99830627,"y":279.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"by taking a percentage of the overall installed capacity. Clusters that are not con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","267.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22729492,"y":267.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"nected at all to the real energy market (e.g., South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Zealand in the OECD Pacific region) are assigned 0% interconnection capacity. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Responsibly well-connected clusters (such as the south-western USA) are set to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"15%, and highly interconnected countries (such as Denmark) are assigned up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"40%.","dir":"ltr","width":"20.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Several simplifications have been made to the [R]E 24/7 model for ease of com","dir":"ltr","width":"316.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":195.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","195.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":195.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"putation and to accommodate the paucity of data and uncertainty about the future ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"when designing the interconnector algorithms:","dir":"ltr","width":"186.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Interconnections between the project-defined regions are the only ones consid","dir":"ltr","width":"316.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":153.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"ered, so all intra-regional interconnections or line constraints are excluded (‘","dir":"ltr","width":"301.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":141.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"cop-","dir":"ltr","width":"17.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","367.72","141.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":367.71728515,"y":141.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"per plate","dir":"ltr","width":"35.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.85829925,"y":129.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"’);","dir":"ltr","width":"9.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","101.69","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.68830108,"y":129.15979003} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Optimal load flow is neglected because policy and price signals are considered to ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"be the factors dominating the international and inter-regional load flow;","dir":"ltr","width":"285.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Non-adjacent inter-regional interconnections are neglected for computational ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"reasons, e.g., one region cannot buy power from a region with which it does not ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"share a border.","dir":"ltr","width":"58.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":105,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"54","dir":"ltr","width":"8.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"The algorithm devised for the function of the interconnectors is based on three ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"key pieces of information for each region in a cluster:","dir":"ltr","width":"214.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"Excess generation capacity;","dir":"ltr","width":"111.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","567.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":567.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"Unmet load;","dir":"ltr","width":"49.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","555.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"–","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+TmcjtyKmygfwVfvvtxTimes-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"Interconnection capacity with each adjacent region, both in and out.","dir":"ltr","width":"271.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","543.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":543.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"The excess generation capacity and unmet load were calculated by running the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"model without the interconnectors to determine the excess or shortfall in generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"when the load within the region is met. These excesses and shortfalls were calcu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15930175,"y":501.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"lated at the point in the dispatch cascade at which the interconnectors provide or ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"consume power, for example, after the variable renewables and dispatchable gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":477.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"erators and before the storage elements.","dir":"ltr","width":"158.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"The interconnection capacity between adjacent regions was defined based on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"percentage of the maximum regional load. The capacity was defined in a matrix, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"both to and from every region to every other region. For non-adjacent regions, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"capacities were set to zero. A priority order for each region to every other region was ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"given, so that if the region had an unmet load, it would be served sequentially with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"the excess generation of the loads in their defined order.","dir":"ltr","width":"223.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"For every hour and for every region in each cluster, the possible interconnection ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"inflow or outflow for load balancing was calculated. Each region was considered in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"turn, and the algorithm attempted to meet the unmet load with excess generation by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"adjacent regions, keeping track of the residual excess load and interconnector ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"capacities. Each region’s internal load was met first, before its generation resources ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"were considered for other interconnected regions.","dir":"ltr","width":"198.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"Once the total inflow and outflow of the interconnectors were calculated, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"hourly values were fed into the model once more at the position in the cascade to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"which they were assigned, and the model was run again to give the total system ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"behaviour. For regions sending generation capacity to other regions, the intercon","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17730712,"y":273.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"nector element behaved as an increase in load, whereas for regions accepting power ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"from neighbouring regions, the interconnector element behaved as an additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"generator, from the model’s perspective.","dir":"ltr","width":"160.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"3.6","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","193.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":193.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"Employment Modelling (UTS-ISF)","dir":"ltr","width":"178.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","193.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":193.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"Two of the key dimensions influencing the social and economic impacts of the tran","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":165.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"sition from fossil-fuel to clean energy are the quantity and type of jobs that are lost ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"and created. Currently, there are limited data on the volumes of jobs that will be lost ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"and created within particular occupations and locations during the transition to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.1598053} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"clean energy. National statistical agencies classify and collect data on occupations ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"within the fossil fuel sectors but not within the renewable energy sectors (ABS ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"). ISF has developed a model to estimate the volume of renewable energy jobs ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":93.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"under different 100% global renewable energy scenarios (Rutovitz and Dominish ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"), and an increasing body of research is estimating the jobs created by ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":69.15979766} {"page":106,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.65319824} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"55","dir":"ltr","width":"8.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.25","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.25241088,"y":623.65332031} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy. The following section provides an overview of the basic method","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":597.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"ology. Based on this, UTS/ISF has developed this methodology further, as presented ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","86.36","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.35829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","98.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":98.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"3.6.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","529.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":529.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"Quantitative Employment Calculation","dir":"ltr","width":"187.74","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","529.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":529.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"In 2015, the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at the University of Technology ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"Sydney (UTS) developed a quantitative employment model that calculates employ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":489.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"ment development in the electricity, heating, and fuel production sectors for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"analysis of future energy pathways (Rutovitz and Dominish ","dir":"ltr","width":"238.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","292.59","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":292.5873108,"y":465.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"). Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","312.59","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":312.5873108,"y":465.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"3.10","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.09","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.08831787,"y":465.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":" pro","dir":"ltr","width":"15.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.59","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.58831787,"y":465.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":465.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"vides a simplified overview of how the calculations are performed, based on ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"Rutovitz (","dir":"ltr","width":"41.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"2015b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.38","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.37830352,"y":441.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"). The main inputs for the quantitative employment calculations ","dir":"ltr","width":"269.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","120.38","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":120.37830352,"y":441.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"are:","dir":"ltr","width":"14.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"for each calculated scenario, e.g., the 5.0 °C (Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"5.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.95","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.95028686,"y":417.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":") and 2.0 °C Scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"94.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","293.95","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.95028686,"y":417.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"(Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"5.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","79.41","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.4083023,"y":405.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"),","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","99.41","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.4083023,"y":405.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"the electrical and heating capacity that will be installed each year for each ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","387.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"technology;","dir":"ltr","width":"47.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","375.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":375.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"the primary energy demand for coal, gas, and biomass fuels in the electricity and ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"heating sectors;","dir":"ltr","width":"62.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","351.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":351.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"the amount of electricity generated per year from nuclear power, oil, and diesel.","dir":"ltr","width":"318.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","339.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":339.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"for each technology:","dir":"ltr","width":"82.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"‘employment factors’, or the number of jobs per unit of capacity, separated into ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","303.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":303.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"manufacturing, construction, operation, and maintenance, and per unit of pri","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","291.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":291.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","291.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19030761,"y":291.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"mary energy for fuel supply;","dir":"ltr","width":"114.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","279.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":279.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"for the 2020, 2030, and 2050 calculations, a ‘decline factor’ for each technology, ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","267.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":267.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"which reduces the employment factors by a certain percentage per year. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","255.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":255.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"reflects the fact that employment per unit decreases as technology efficiencies ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","243.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":243.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"improve.","dir":"ltr","width":"35.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","231.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":231.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"for each region:","dir":"ltr","width":"63.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"the percentage of local manufacturing and domestic fuel production in each ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":195.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"region, to calculate the proportions of jobs in manufacturing and fuel production ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","183.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":183.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"that occur in the region;","dir":"ltr","width":"95.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","171.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":171.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"the percentage of world trade in coal and gas fuels, and traded renewable compo","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","159.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":159.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","159.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":159.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"nents that originates in each region.","dir":"ltr","width":"142.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","147.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":147.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"A ‘regional job multiplier’, which indicates how labour-intensive the economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":129.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"activity is in that region compared with the OECD, is used to adjust the OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"employment factors when local data are not available. The figures for the increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"in electrical capacity and energy use from each scenario are multiplied by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"employment factors for each of the technologies, and then adjusted for regional ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979003} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":107,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":108,"change":"none","str":"56","dir":"ltr","width":"8.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":108,"change":"none","str":"labour intensity and the proportion of fuel or manufacturing that occurs locally. 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For example, we can direct our focus to areas of the workforce in which ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"an increase in the supply of labour will probably be required, and to areas where the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"effects of dislocation will be greatest.","dir":"ltr","width":"149.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Using a variety of data sources, ISF has developed a framework for classifying ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","387.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":387.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"and measuring job changes at different levels of occupational disaggregation, to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":375.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"provide a richer picture of the composition of this employment change. The meth","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","363.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14129638,"y":363.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"odology and key figures are detailed below.","dir":"ltr","width":"173.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":351.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Three primary studies that classify and measure the occupational compositions ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","339.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":339.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"of renewable energy industries have been conducted by the International Renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Energy Agency (IRENA). Using surveys of the participants in around 45 industries ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"across a range of developed and developing nations, IRENA has estimated the per","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","303.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":303.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"centages of person-days for the various occupations across the solar PV and onshore ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"and offshore wind farm supply chains (IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"187.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":279.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","241.65","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":241.64830017,"y":279.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"). Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","261.65","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":261.64828491,"y":279.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"3.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","298.07","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":298.06829833,"y":279.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":" is an example (in ","dir":"ltr","width":"72.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.57","279.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.56829833,"y":279.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"this case, for solar PV manufacturing).","dir":"ltr","width":"154.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"IRENA’s studies are the most detailed estimates available of the occupational ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","255.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":255.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"compositions of the solar PV and onshore wind sectors. ISF has extended the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.79382324} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"application of IRENA’s work. Chapter ","dir":"ltr","width":"153.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.79380798} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","207.00","231.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.9972992,"y":231.79380798} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":" provides more details about the methodol","dir":"ltr","width":"165.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","217.00","231.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":216.9972992,"y":231.79380798} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","231.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16729736,"y":231.79380798} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"ogy and the specific factors used in this analysis.","dir":"ltr","width":"194.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.79380798} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"3.7","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","175.79"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":175.79379272} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Material and Metal Resources Analysis (UTS-ISF)","dir":"ltr","width":"257.43","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","175.79"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":175.79379272} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"3.7.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","149.79"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":149.78979492} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Methodology—Material and Metal Resources Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"270.91","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","149.79"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":149.78979492} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"The future demands for metals have been modelled to better understand the resource ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","121.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":121.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"requirements of the shift to renewable energy and transport systems. The future ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","109.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":109.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"demands for metals have been modelled for the projection of 100% renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","97.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":97.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"energy and the full electrification of the transport system by 2050, as described in in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","85.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":85.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":73.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","79.97","73.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.96829986,"y":73.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","84.97","73.79"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.96829986,"y":73.79380035} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":109,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"58","dir":"ltr","width":"8.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"The predicted demand for the metals required to produce clean energy each year ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"is estimated based on the increase in capacity plus an additional amount required to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"replace the capacity or vehicles that reach the ends of their lives in each year (based ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"on a lifetime distribution curve for the average lifetime). From this, the GW of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"capacity or number of vehicles introduced in each year is estimated (also accounting ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"for the replacement stock for end-of-life technologies).","dir":"ltr","width":"219.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"When assuming that the introduced amount of specific technologies in year ","dir":"ltr","width":"296.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":237.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.61","237.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":362.60827636,"y":237.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":" is ","dir":"ltr","width":"11.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.32","237.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.31829833,"y":237.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"l","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","376.40","237.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":376.39828491,"y":237.19448852} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"1.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","379.11","235.69"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":379.11080932,"y":235.69450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":" , ","dir":"ltr","width":"7.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","380.74","237.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":380.73678588,"y":237.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"the accumulated stock amount in year ","dir":"ltr","width":"148.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":225.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","202.85","225.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":202.8467865,"y":225.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":" (generation capacity or in-use stock) is ","dir":"ltr","width":"154.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.55","225.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":205.54678344,"y":225.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"S","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.19","225.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":360.1867981,"y":225.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"1.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","365.11","223.69"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":365.1072998,"y":223.69450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":", and ","dir":"ltr","width":"20.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.73","225.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.73330688,"y":225.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"the discarded amount in year ","dir":"ltr","width":"116.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","213.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85330963,"y":213.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","169.85","213.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":169.85331726,"y":213.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":" is ","dir":"ltr","width":"11.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","172.56","213.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":172.56330871,"y":213.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"O","dir":"ltr","width":"7.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.95","213.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":183.9533081,"y":213.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"1.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","191.11","211.69"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":191.10679626,"y":211.69450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":" , can be expressed by:","dir":"ltr","width":"88.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.73","213.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.73280334,"y":213.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"SS","dir":"ltr","width":"37.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","186.20","190.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HwpmsnFtgshfNycmdvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":186.20199584,"y":190.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"IO","dir":"ltr","width":"34.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.48","190.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HwpmsnFtgshfNycmdvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":228.48330688,"y":190.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"tt","dir":"ltr","width":"37.44","height":"5.78","transform":["5.78","0.00","0.00","5.78","191.26","187.51"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HwpmsnFtgshfNycmdvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":191.26449584,"y":187.50700378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"tt","dir":"ltr","width":"37.25","height":"5.78","transform":["5.78","0.00","0.00","5.78","232.33","187.51"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HwpmsnFtgshfNycmdvTimesLTStd-Italic","x":232.32699584,"y":187.50700378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"=+","dir":"ltr","width":"48.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","196.92","190.19"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+WnljlfVhlmlkYpmbjmSymbolMT","x":196.92080688,"y":190.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"−","dir":"ltr","width":"5.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","237.23","190.19"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+WnljlfVhlmlkYpmbjmSymbolMT","x":237.23080444,"y":190.19450378} 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{"page":110,"change":"none","str":"O","dir":"ltr","width":"7.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.94","166.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":95.93830871,"y":166.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"1.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","103.15","164.69"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":103.15470123,"y":164.69450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":" depends on the number of use years of each product. This use year ","dir":"ltr","width":"284.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.82","166.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.8227005,"y":166.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"varies from product to product, and even within the same product group introduced ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","154.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":154.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"into a society in the same year. The discarded year is not constant and has a lifetime ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","142.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":142.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"distribution. Therefore, if the number of use years of the product is assumed as ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","130.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":130.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"a","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","378.06","130.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":378.05969238,"y":130.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.06","130.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.05969238,"y":130.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"lifetime distribution can be defined as ","dir":"ltr","width":"153.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","118.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":118.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"g","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.98","118.19"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":206.98269653,"y":118.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"(a)","dir":"ltr","width":"7.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","211.98","116.69"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":211.9768982,"y":116.69450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":". Hence, is given by following:","dir":"ltr","width":"122.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.97","118.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.97279357,"y":118.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"OI","dir":"ltr","width":"58.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","187.23","87.19"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+RfkmlmCbwfhrNjlfsrTimesLTStd-Italic","x":187.23330688,"y":87.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"ga","dir":"ltr","width":"20.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","232.36","87.19"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+RfkmlmCbwfhrNjlfsrTimesLTStd-Italic","x":232.35830688,"y":87.19450378} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"t","dir":"ltr","width":"1.61","height":"5.78","transform":["5.78","0.00","0.00","5.78","194.17","84.51"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+RfkmlmCbwfhrNjlfsrTimesLTStd-Italic","x":194.17080688,"y":84.50700378} 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(IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"166.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","334.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":334.02841186} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","220.20","334.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.1956482,"y":334.02841186} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","237.20","334.03"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.1956482,"y":334.02841186} {"page":110,"change":"none","str":"S. 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{"page":111,"change":"none","str":",","dir":"ltr","width":"1.45","height":"5.78","transform":["5.78","0.00","0.00","5.78","277.89","281.47"],"fontName":"RYSWYA+SttfqgYhbwvtSrrmhqTimes-Roman","x":277.88876342,"y":281.47229003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"=−","dir":"ltr","width":"104.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.45","284.16"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+StydcbYcsxcnRbpthnSymbolMT","x":182.45199584,"y":284.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"⋅","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","283.98","284.16"],"fontName":"CYMZWE+StydcbYcsxcnRbpthnSymbolMT","x":283.98199462,"y":284.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"(3.5)","dir":"ltr","width":"19.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.03","284.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.02832031,"y":284.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Where ","dir":"ltr","width":"29.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","259.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85830688,"y":259.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Discard","dir":"ltr","width":"31.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.05","259.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":96.04830932,"y":259.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"p,t","dir":"ltr","width":"6.17","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","127.90","257.66"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":127.90149688,"y":257.65979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":" is end-of-life technology in year , and is estimated from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"254.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","134.07","259.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.06950378,"y":259.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Weibull distribution, and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"123.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85950088,"y":247.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Recycling rate","dir":"ltr","width":"59.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","177.16","247.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":177.1605072,"y":247.15979003} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"p","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","236.82","245.66"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","x":236.81500244,"y":245.6598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":" indicates the proportion of metals ","dir":"ltr","width":"149.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.82","247.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.81500244,"y":247.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"recovered from end-of-life technology. Since this value can be increased by techno","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","235.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":235.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","235.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14498901,"y":235.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"logical improvements, the metal price, and the amount of end-of-life product avail-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","223.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":223.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"able, we assumed both the current recycling rate and an improved recycling rate.","dir":"ltr","width":"322.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","211.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":211.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"This recycling rate is based on the rate of recycling of the metal within the tech","dir":"ltr","width":"316.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","199.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85500335,"y":199.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","199.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13500976,"y":199.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"nology (e.g., silver discarded from solar panels can be recycled into new solar pan","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","187.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":187.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","187.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17800903,"y":187.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"els), rather than as an average across the use of the metal, as has been done in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","175.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":175.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"previous studies. This has been chosen as the most appropriate recycling rate to use ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","163.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":163.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"because we assume that by using recycling rates specific to the technology, it is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","151.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":151.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"more likely to offset demand for new materials for that technology.","dir":"ltr","width":"267.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","139.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85499954,"y":139.1598053} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Table 3.8","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","111.23"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":111.22750091} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Key assumptions","dir":"ltr","width":"57.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.35","111.23"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.34629821,"y":111.22750091} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Technology","dir":"ltr","width":"40.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","96.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.692901610000014,"y":96.9720011} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Lifetime (years)","dir":"ltr","width":"55.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","173.50","96.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.49989318000002,"y":96.9720011} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Shape parameter","dir":"ltr","width":"56.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","286.83","96.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.83041381,"y":96.9720011} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"30.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","84.32"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.68439865000001,"y":84.32399848} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"30","dir":"ltr","width":"8.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","173.49","84.32"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.49139404,"y":84.32399848} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"5.38","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","286.82","84.32"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.82189941,"y":84.32399848} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Battery","dir":"ltr","width":"25.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","72.49"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.675891870000015,"y":72.49199774} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","173.48","72.49"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.48289490000002,"y":72.49199774} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","286.81","72.49"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.813385,"y":72.49199774} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.84","623.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.836891170000015,"y":623.6575327099999} {"page":111,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.59","623.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.58689117000002,"y":623.6575327099999} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"60","dir":"ltr","width":"8.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"Ultimately, the mineral requirements estimated with equations (","dir":"ltr","width":"262.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","328.79","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.78829956,"y":597.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":") and (","dir":"ltr","width":"28.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.29","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.28829956,"y":597.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.69","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.68829345,"y":597.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":597.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"under the various assumptions were compared with metal reserves and annual pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":585.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"duction (in 2017). A ‘reserve’ is regarded as the amount economically extractable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"with the current technologies and at the current metal price, and can change signifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":561.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"cantly over time. However, comparing reserves with estimated future requirements ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"can provide insight into how the introduction of clean energy technologies will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"affect the physical availability of metals in the future. We also compared current ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"production with the estimated future requirements to estimate the likelihood of a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"rapid increase in requirements. The key results are presented in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.75","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.74630737,"y":501.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.75","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.74630737,"y":501.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"3.8","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","457.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":457.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"Climate Model","dir":"ltr","width":"76.32","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","457.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":457.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"3.8.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","431.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":431.15579223} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"Deriving Non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"88.33","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","431.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":431.15579223} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"7.20","transform":["7.20","0.00","0.00","7.20","178.19","429.36"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":178.18910217,"y":429.35980224} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" GHG Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"79.40","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","181.79","431.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":181.78909301,"y":431.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"This section provides an overview of the methodology that has been used to com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","403.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":403.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","403.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":403.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"plement the energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"129.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","391.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":391.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","182.91","389.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.91070556,"y":389.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emission pathways for non-energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"196.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","185.91","391.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.91070556,"y":391.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","389.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":389.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"emissions, other GHG emissions, and aerosols.","dir":"ltr","width":"188.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","379.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":379.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"The energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"92.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","367.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":367.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","158.07","365.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.06869506,"y":365.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emissions were derived using energy-system modelling ","dir":"ltr","width":"227.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","161.07","367.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.06869506,"y":367.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"frameworks, but two different approaches have been used to derive the land-use CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":355.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","353.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":353.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"emissions and other GHG emissions. First, we will describe the approach that was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":343.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"used to determine other GHG emissions. This approach can be summarized as a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":331.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"statistical analysis of currently published scenarios. To derive non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"287.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":319.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","341.40","317.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.3959961,"y":317.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" pathways ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.40","319.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.3959961,"y":319.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"that are consistent with the relevant emission mitigation levels, the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"303.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":307.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","357.47","305.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.4724121,"y":305.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"21.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.47","307.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.4724121,"y":307.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","307.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18240356,"y":307.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"sions were regressed against the fossil fuel and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86241912,"y":295.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","309.30","293.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.30300903,"y":293.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emissions. These ","dir":"ltr","width":"76.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","312.30","295.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":312.30300903,"y":295.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"regression characteristics were then used to derive the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"261.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8630104,"y":283.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","315.13","281.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.1288147,"y":281.65979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emissions. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"71.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","318.13","283.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.1288147,"y":283.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"method has been newly developed in the context of this study and can be regarded ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":271.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"as a further development of the Equal Quantile Walk method introduced by ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":259.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"Meinshausen et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"80.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":247.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2006","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","134.40","247.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.39880371,"y":247.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","154.40","247.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.39880371,"y":247.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"One challenge in applying the collective knowledge that is enshrined in multi-","dir":"ltr","width":"319.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","235.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85881042,"y":235.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"gas-","dir":"ltr","width":"16.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":223.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"emission scenarios in the literature is that regional and sectoral definitions differ ","dir":"ltr","width":"317.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.47","223.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.46881103,"y":223.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"slightly between the various modelling groups. Because most IPCC scenarios work ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":211.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"are based on the emission categories used by the IAM community, their emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":199.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"categories and regions have been adopted in this analysis of non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"268.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85881042,"y":187.15979003} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","322.34","185.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.3428955,"y":185.6598053} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emission path","dir":"ltr","width":"56.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","325.34","187.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":325.3428955,"y":187.1598053} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","187.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18289184,"y":187.1598053} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"ways. The steps in the analysis are described in the following sub-sections.","dir":"ltr","width":"299.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":175.1598053} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"3.8.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86288833,"y":139.1598053} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"Regional Definitions","dir":"ltr","width":"86.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","139.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36289215,"y":139.1598053} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"First, the regional energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"147.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":115.15979766} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","200.98","113.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.97929382,"y":113.65979766} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":" emissions developed in the previous sections ","dir":"ltr","width":"184.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","203.98","115.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.97929382,"y":115.15979766} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"must be transformed to match the five Renewable Communities Program (RCP) ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":103.15979766} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"regions used by the IAM community, into the regions OECD90 (OECD countries, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85929107,"y":91.15979766} {"page":112,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.65319824} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"61","dir":"ltr","width":"7.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.52","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.51760864,"y":623.65332031} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"membership status as of 1990), ASIA (Asian countries), REF (economies in transi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","460.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":460.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","460.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":460.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"tion), LAM (Latin America), and MAF (Middle East and Africa). Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"286.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","448.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":448.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"3.9","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","340.39","448.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.38830566,"y":448.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" (above) ","dir":"ltr","width":"35.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.89","448.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.88830566,"y":448.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"indicates the overlap and differences between the RCP regions with the other ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","436.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":436.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"regions described in this report. As an indicator of how different the regional defini","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","424.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":424.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","424.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20928955,"y":424.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"tions are, we used the fossil fuel and industrial emissions for the year 2015 accord","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","412.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":412.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","412.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":412.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"ing to the 2017 update of the PRIMAP database (Gütschow et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"262.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","400.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":400.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","316.08","400.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":316.07629394,"y":400.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","336.08","400.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.07629394,"y":400.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","388.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":388.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"3.9","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.18","388.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.17829895,"y":388.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview to the regional definitions used in this study. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","102.68","388.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.67829895,"y":388.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"top row indicates the regions for the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"166.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","376.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":376.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","220.05","374.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.0532074,"y":374.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" fossil and industrial emissions, and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"165.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","223.05","376.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":223.0532074,"y":376.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"various rows refer to the five regions used in IAMs. To derive the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"303.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","364.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86320114,"y":364.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","357.15","362.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.15310668,"y":362.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"22.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.15","364.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.15310668,"y":364.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","364.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18310546,"y":364.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"sions, we used the IAM’s five RCP regions. The numbers indicate the fossil fuel and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","352.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86310958,"y":352.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"industrial emissions in the year 2015 in MtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"182.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86310958,"y":340.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","236.39","338.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.39190673,"y":338.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":", aggregated from country-level data. ","dir":"ltr","width":"148.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.39","340.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.39190673,"y":340.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"The colour shading of the cells indicates where most of the 2015 emissions occurred.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86191177,"y":328.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","316.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86190795,"y":316.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"3.9","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.92","316.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.92191314,"y":316.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" Regional definitions according to the Integrated Assessment Modelling ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","102.42","316.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.42191314,"y":316.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"community (so-called ‘RCP5’ regions) compared with the other regions used in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86191177,"y":304.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"study The overlap and differences between the two sets of regional definitions are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86191177,"y":292.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"shown with the 2015 fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"179.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86191177,"y":280.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","233.66","278.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.65950012,"y":278.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" emissions. For example, the first row ","dir":"ltr","width":"151.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.66","280.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.65950012,"y":280.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"indicates that the largest sub-region in the RCP5_Asia group is China, with 8,826 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85948944,"y":268.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"MtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"25.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85948944,"y":256.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","79.42","254.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.41799926,"y":254.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" of emissions.","dir":"ltr","width":"55.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.42","256.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.41799926,"y":256.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"The transfer of the energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"150.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","244.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8580017,"y":244.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","216.38","242.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":216.38000488,"y":242.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" emission results to fit the IAM’s regional ","dir":"ltr","width":"168.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","219.38","244.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.38000488,"y":244.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"categorization (which is consistent with IEA WEO reports) was performed by first ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86000061,"y":232.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"disaggregating all the results to country-level data. A simple proportional scale was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86000061,"y":220.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"applied to the 2015 energy-related country-level CO","dir":"ltr","width":"209.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86000061,"y":208.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","263.57","206.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":263.57418823,"y":206.97140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" emissions from the PRIMAP ","dir":"ltr","width":"121.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","266.57","208.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":266.57418823,"y":208.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"database. The disaggregated country-level data were then re-aggregated at the RCP5 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","196.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":196.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"regional level.","dir":"ltr","width":"56.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","184.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":184.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"3.8.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","148.47"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85419082,"y":148.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Harmonization: Emission Category Adjustments","dir":"ltr","width":"208.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.35","148.47"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35418701,"y":148.47140502} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Before proceeding with the application of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"185.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","124.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":124.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","239.00","122.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.002594,"y":122.9713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" versus non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"63.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.00","124.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.002594,"y":124.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","305.24","122.97"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":305.23739624,"y":122.9713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":" statistical relation","dir":"ltr","width":"73.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","308.24","124.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":308.23739624,"y":124.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","124.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18740844,"y":124.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"ships, a harmonization step is necessary. Various IAM use slightly different catego","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":112.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","112.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20440673,"y":112.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"ries, emission factors, and activity data to estimate emissions. This can result in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.47"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":100.4713974} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Regions","dir":"ltr","width":"17.03","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","57.88","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":57.88019943,"y":569.53692626} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Developing","dir":"ltr","width":"24.39","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","99.74","575.47"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":99.74060058,"y":575.47338867} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Asia","dir":"ltr","width":"9.50","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","99.74","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":99.74060058,"y":569.53692626} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Africa","dir":"ltr","width":"13.32","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","154.65","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":154.65029907,"y":569.53692626} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Middle","dir":"ltr","width":"15.13","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","181.73","575.47"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":181.7263031,"y":575.47338867} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"East","dir":"ltr","width":"9.00","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","181.73","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":181.7263031,"y":569.53692626} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Central & ","dir":"ltr","width":"22.07","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","204.61","581.42"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":204.60629272,"y":581.41577148} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"South ","dir":"ltr","width":"13.51","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","204.61","575.47"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":204.60629272,"y":575.47338867} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Am","dir":"ltr","width":"7.88","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","204.61","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":204.60629272,"y":569.53692626} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"er","dir":"ltr","width":"4.06","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","212.38","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":212.3794403,"y":569.53692626} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Eurasia","dir":"ltr","width":"15.68","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","236.15","569.54"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":236.15130615,"y":569.53692626} 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{"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Europe","dir":"ltr","width":"15.07","height":"5.18","transform":["5.23","0.00","0.00","5.18","131.69","569.80"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT","x":131.6910553,"y":569.80267333} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Table 3.9","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.18"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.18432617} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Regional definitions according to the Integrated Assessment Modelling community","dir":"ltr","width":"282.12","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.35","598.18"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.34629821,"y":598.18432617} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65032958} {"page":113,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65032958} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"62","dir":"ltr","width":"8.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"some spread in the current emission estimates for the same regions and categories. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"To address this issue, the standard practice in the IAM community is to work with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"harmonized emissions scenarios, meaning that the original emissions scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"have either been scaled or shifted towards a common reference point. A recent his","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15130615,"y":561.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"torical emission level is normally chosen as this reference point. Here, we chose the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2015 emissions across the five RCP regions.","dir":"ltr","width":"177.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"Harmonization was performed in two steps. First, emissions were added that ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"were related to the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"94.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","148.49","511.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.48609924,"y":511.65979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":" fossil and industrial emission categories (such as waste-","dir":"ltr","width":"234.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","151.49","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":151.48609924,"y":513.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"related emissions) and that were outside the scope of emissions in the energy-related ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":501.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":489.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","487.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.74810028,"y":487.65979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":" emission chapters. The scenarios from which these ‘other’ energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"311.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.74810028,"y":489.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","487.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":487.65979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"emissions were taken were: the SSP2_Ref_SPA0_V25_upscaled_MESSAGE_","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"GLOBIOM (for the 5.0 °C reference scenario); SSP1_26_SPA1_V25_IMAGE (for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":465.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0  °C Scenario), and SSP1_19_SPA1_V25_IMAGE scenario (for the 1.5°C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":453.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"Scenario). In the second harmonization step, the overall sum of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"272.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":441.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"complemented ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.63","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.63180541,"y":441.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario CO","dir":"ltr","width":"120.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":429.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","174.18","427.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.18009948,"y":427.65979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":" emissions were compared with the overall fossil and ","dir":"ltr","width":"210.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","177.18","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":177.18009948,"y":429.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"industrial sum of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"87.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8600998,"y":417.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","141.06","415.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.06149291,"y":415.65979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":" emissions in the year 2015, which were used for scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"244.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","144.06","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.06149291,"y":417.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"harmonization under the CMIP6 ScenarioMIP process (Meinshausen et al., in prep","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":405.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2084961,"y":405.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"aration). This comparison revealed that there were still differences between the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":393.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"complemented energy scenarios (see Chapter ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":381.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.79","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.79148864,"y":381.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":") and the harmonization emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"141.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","247.79","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":247.79148864,"y":381.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"levels for the various regions. These differences could again have resulted from dif","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":369.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17147827,"y":369.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"ferent emission factors or activity assumptions, or they could simply reflect genuine ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":357.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"uncertainty in the overall global and regional anthropogenic emissions. 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Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"121.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":309.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"3.12","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.69","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.69148254,"y":309.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":" shows the differences between the raw emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"195.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.19","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.19148254,"y":309.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"scenario data, the data re-aggregated into the RCP regions, and the CMIP6 emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":297.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"harmonization fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"155.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148834,"y":285.15979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","209.25","283.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.25230407,"y":283.65979003} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":" emission levels for 2015 (in GtC). 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{"page":114,"change":"none","str":"REF","dir":"ltr","width":"11.92","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","250.21","104.58"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri","x":250.21080017,"y":104.58049774} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"LAM","dir":"ltr","width":"14.83","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","290.81","104.58"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri","x":290.81079101,"y":104.58049774} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"BUNKERS","dir":"ltr","width":"30.74","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","324.86","104.58"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri","x":324.85879516,"y":104.58049774} {"page":114,"change":"none","str":"GtC Emissions in 201","dir":"ltr","width":"67.38","height":"8.00","transform":["0.00","8.00","-8.00","0.00","84.69","126.20"],"fontName":"HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri","x":84.6909027,"y":126.19850158} 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In summary, the input assumptions of all these literature-reported sce","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86019897,"y":489.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18319702,"y":489.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"narios vary widely, yet all have some formal energy-system modelling framework ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86019897,"y":477.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"behind them that provides first-level assurance that the envisaged CO","dir":"ltr","width":"286.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86019897,"y":465.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.06","463.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.05560302,"y":463.65979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":", methane, ","dir":"ltr","width":"46.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.06","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.05560302,"y":465.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"nitrous oxide, and other gas emission levels are not set below the limits considered ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":453.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"technologically feasible under a certain set of boundary conditions, such as the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":441.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"requirement to continuing feeding the human population. The technological and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":429.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"economic feasibilities of emission pathways are fluid concepts, subject to change in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":417.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"response to technological advances and changes in policy settings.","dir":"ltr","width":"265.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":405.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"This study and the approach it uses are not dependent on absolute levels of miti","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85559844,"y":393.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21560668,"y":393.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"gation costs or precise definitions of technological feasibility. Instead, the method ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":381.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"used assumes that that non-CO2 gases are reduced with a similar effort as that ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":369.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"required to reduce CO","dir":"ltr","width":"93.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559844,"y":357.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","147.72","355.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.7229004,"y":355.65979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" emissions. Therefore, using the emission characteristics ","dir":"ltr","width":"238.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.72","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.7229004,"y":357.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"from a large set of scenarios reported in the literature, we assume similar levels of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":345.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"technological feasibility, economic mitigation costs, and implementation opportuni","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":333.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18591308,"y":333.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"ties will be required to reduce emissions of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"188.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":321.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","242.17","319.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.16610717,"y":319.65979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" and various other gases.","dir":"ltr","width":"98.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","245.17","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":245.16610717,"y":321.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"More specifically, we derived the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"175.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85610961,"y":309.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","240.93","307.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.92770385,"y":307.65979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" emissions in a particular year by ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.93","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.92770385,"y":309.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"ranking all the scenarios against the indicator of fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"286.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85770034,"y":297.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.81","295.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.8066101,"y":295.65979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.81","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.8066101,"y":297.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"in that year (see Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85660171,"y":285.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"3.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","146.32","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.31660461,"y":285.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" below). By comparing them to the ‘crowd’ of other ","dir":"ltr","width":"225.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","163.82","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.81660461,"y":285.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"literature-","dir":"ltr","width":"39.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85660171,"y":273.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"reported scenarios, the LDF pathways could also be ranked. Specifically, ","dir":"ltr","width":"294.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.29","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.2865982,"y":273.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"the LDF reference scenario turned out to be around the 75th percentile of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85660171,"y":261.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"distribution of the fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"169.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85660171,"y":249.15979003} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","223.10","247.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":223.10040283,"y":247.6598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" emissions across all 811 scenarios con-","dir":"ltr","width":"159.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.10","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.10040283,"y":249.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"sidered. By contrast, the lower 1.5 °C Scenario and 2.0 °C Scenario were not at the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":237.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"absolute lower boundary of the 811 scenario distribution, but were close to it. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":225.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario ranked between the zero and first percentile—that is, among the 1% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":213.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"most stringent scenarios in the literature for the years 2025–2045. In the period until ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":201.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2050, the 2.0 °C Scenario was situated between the 5th and 10th percentiles of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":189.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"scenario distribution (see Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"121.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":177.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"3.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","175.04","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.03938293,"y":177.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.54","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.53938293,"y":177.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8603897,"y":165.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"3.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.75","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.7503891,"y":165.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" shows the 1.5  °C and 2.0  °C Scenarios, their absolute fossil and ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.25","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.2503891,"y":165.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"industry CO","dir":"ltr","width":"49.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8603897,"y":153.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","103.60","151.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.60119628,"y":151.6598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" emissions until 2050 (upper panel), and their respective locations in ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","106.60","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":106.60119628,"y":153.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"the set of 811 literature-reported scenarios considered (lower panel). The post-2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8611908,"y":141.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"scenario extensions were extrapolated differently for fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"311.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8611908,"y":129.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","365.20","127.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.20019531,"y":127.65979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" and ","dir":"ltr","width":"20.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","368.20","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":368.20019531,"y":129.1598053} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"47.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86019897,"y":117.15981292} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","101.17","115.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.17420196,"y":115.65979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" gases. To derive the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"117.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.17","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.17420196,"y":117.15979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","221.83","115.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.82519531,"y":115.65979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" gases, the 2050 percentile location was ","dir":"ltr","width":"163.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","224.83","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.82519531,"y":117.15979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"assumed constant for the remainder of the twenty-first century. For the fossil and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85519027,"y":105.15979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"54.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85519027,"y":93.15979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","108.29","91.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.29319763,"y":91.65979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":" emissions in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, which do not assume ","dir":"ltr","width":"277.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","111.29","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":111.29319763,"y":93.15979766} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":115,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"64","dir":"ltr","width":"8.91","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"BECCS to achieve net negative emission levels, a continuation of the constant zero 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The energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"121.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","309.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":309.19100952} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","174.93","307.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.92649841,"y":307.9119873} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":" emissions pathways from the other chapters are used until ","dir":"ltr","width":"211.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","177.48","309.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":177.47650146,"y":309.18701171} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"2050, and then extended beyond 2050 by either keeping the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"214.32","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","299.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":299.19100952} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","268.18","297.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":268.18319702,"y":297.9119873} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":" emissions constant (in the case of ","dir":"ltr","width":"116.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","270.73","299.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.73318481,"y":299.18701171} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, i.e., red and purple dashed lines beyond 2050 in the upper panel) ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","289.19"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":289.19100952} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"or by keeping the percentile level within the literature-reported scenarios constant (in the case of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","279.20"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":279.19500732} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"the reference scenario, i.e., green solid line in the upper panel). The percentile rank within the other ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","269.20"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":269.19900512} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"literature-reported scenarios is shown in the lower panel. The constant absolute emission level after ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","259.20"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":259.20300292} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"2050 in the case of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios can be seen to result in an increasing percentile ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","249.21"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":249.207016} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"rank among all the literature-reported scenarios (increasing purple–red line in the lower panel)","dir":"ltr","width":"320.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","239.21"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85569,"y":239.2110138} {"page":116,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99841308,"y":623.65319824} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"65","dir":"ltr","width":"8.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.03","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.03219604,"y":623.65332031} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"scenarios with zero emissions by the end of the century tend to reflect a much lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"level of mitigation effort. Therefore, to derive non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"225.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","279.36","583.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.35931396,"y":583.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emissions that involve a ","dir":"ltr","width":"106.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","282.36","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.35931396,"y":585.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"level of effort that is comparable to the mitigation effort involved in reducing ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85931015,"y":573.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"73.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85931015,"y":561.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","127.85","559.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.8498993,"y":559.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emissions, we assumed that the energy scenarios developed for ","dir":"ltr","width":"257.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.85","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.8498993,"y":561.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"this study were comparable to other scenarios that share zero emissions around ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":549.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2050. This percentile ‘stringency’ level was then held constant for the remainder of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":537.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"the twenty-first century. Therefore, whereas the actual fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":525.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","523.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":523.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"emissions in the LDF scenarios are assumed to remain constant at zero, the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":513.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","511.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":511.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"gas emissions are derived from data in the existing literature, as if the scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":501.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"remained at a stringency level of ~3% in the second half of the twenty-first century ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":489.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"(see the lower panel in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"111.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"3.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","164.98","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.98080444,"y":477.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.48","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.48080444,"y":477.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"We now have the fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"161.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":465.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","227.81","463.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.81039428,"y":463.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emission levels throughout the twenty-","dir":"ltr","width":"154.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","230.81","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.81039428,"y":465.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"first century for each of the three scenarios, and have complemented these with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":453.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"‘pseudo’ CO","dir":"ltr","width":"53.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":441.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","107.79","439.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.79100036,"y":439.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emission levels for the second half of the twenty-first century. ","dir":"ltr","width":"279.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","110.79","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.79100036,"y":441.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, we can derive the corresponding non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"208.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":429.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","262.56","427.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.55560302,"y":427.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emissions.","dir":"ltr","width":"44.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","265.56","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":265.55560302,"y":429.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"In the first step, we derived the total non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"181.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8556137,"y":417.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","247.31","415.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":247.30679321,"y":415.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emissions for a specific year and ","dir":"ltr","width":"138.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.30","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.3007965,"y":417.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"for the world as a whole. In the second step, we determined the shares of global fos","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86080932,"y":405.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18081665,"y":405.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"sil and industrial emissions versus the land-use-related emissions—again regressed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86080932,"y":393.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"against the overall fossil CO","dir":"ltr","width":"111.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86080932,"y":381.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","165.33","379.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.32640075,"y":379.65979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" emission level as an indicator of the ‘stringency’ of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","168.32","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":168.32040405,"y":381.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"scenario. In the third step, we disaggregated these fossil and land-use-specific emis","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":369.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17041015,"y":369.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"sion time series into regional time series. Again, the shares of the regional emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":357.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"were derived with the same quantile regressions shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"260.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":345.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"3.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.54","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.54040527,"y":345.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":" above. With ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.00","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.00039672,"y":345.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"these three quantile regression steps, we inferred either the lower (if lower quantile ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":333.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"ranges are chosen), medium (for a median 50% quantile regression), or higher emis","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":321.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15039062,"y":321.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"sion levels of the other gases. In this study, we do not intend to provide probabilistic ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":309.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"emission scenarios and therefore limited our quantile regression choice to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":297.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"median 50% setting for all regions, sectoral divisions, and other global total gases.","dir":"ltr","width":"328.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":285.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"The major advantage of this newly developed method compared with the EQW ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86039733,"y":273.15979003} {"page":117,"change":"none","str":"method developed earlier (Meinshausen et al. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"270.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.02","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.02459716,"y":597.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"This method reflects the level of correlation in the finally derived multi-gas scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"330.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.854599,"y":585.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"3.8.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","549.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.854599,"y":549.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"Land-Use Assumptions","dir":"ltr","width":"98.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.35","549.16"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.354599,"y":549.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"In principle, the same methodological approach can be used for land-use emissions. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.854599,"y":525.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"In the IAM scenarios, the emission sequestration with the BECCS technology is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.854599,"y":513.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"reported as a negative emission in the fossil and industrial CO","dir":"ltr","width":"245.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.854599,"y":501.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","299.48","499.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.48001098,"y":499.65979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":" emission categories. ","dir":"ltr","width":"85.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","302.48","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.48001098,"y":501.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the quantile regression approach can also be applied to the land-use CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86001968,"y":489.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","487.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":487.65979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"sector. However, to more explicitly define the land-use choices that are implied by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"various land-use scenarios, we developed a new (probabilistic) scenario in conjunc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":465.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17181396,"y":465.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"tion with another land-use emission project (Dooley et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"232.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":453.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","286.46","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.45980834,"y":453.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.46","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.45980834,"y":453.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"This method is based on various literature-reported studies and we provide an ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":441.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"overall synthesis of four different land-use-based sequestration pathways: ‘forest ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":429.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"ecosystem restoration’, ‘reforestation’, ‘sustainable use of forests’, and ‘agrofor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":417.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18182373,"y":417.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"estry’. These land-use sequestration pathways are based on the premise that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":405.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"better management of terrestrial ecosystems should allow previously degraded car","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":393.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","393.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18182373,"y":393.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"bon stocks to be restored, entailing the removal of significant atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":381.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","379.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":379.65979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"(DeCicco and Schlesinger ","dir":"ltr","width":"111.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","165.40","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.40179443,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"; Law et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","185.40","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.40179443,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.90","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.90080261,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"; Mackey et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"67.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","258.90","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.90078735,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.74","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.7408142,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"; Mackey ","dir":"ltr","width":"42.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","346.74","369.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.7408142,"y":369.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":357.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"; Nabuurs et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"62.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.86180114,"y":357.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","136.46","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":136.46380615,"y":357.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"). We derived the overall pathways separately for the tem","dir":"ltr","width":"225.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.46","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.46380615,"y":357.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","357.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14678955,"y":357.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"perate and boreal regions on the one side and the subtropical and tropical regions on ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":345.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"the other. This distinction is largely consistent with the dominant distinction of dif","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":333.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","333.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19680786,"y":333.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"ferent climate domain characteristics in the literature (Grace et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"266.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":321.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","320.16","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.15881347,"y":321.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"; Houghton ","dir":"ltr","width":"48.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","340.16","321.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.15881347,"y":321.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"and Nassikas ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":309.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.09","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.09179687,"y":309.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"; Pan et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"45.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","129.09","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":129.09179687,"y":309.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.14","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.14379882,"y":309.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"), although the temperate and boreal biomes are ","dir":"ltr","width":"193.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","194.14","309.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":194.14379882,"y":309.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"as different in terms of land-use and forest ecosystem characteristics as the tropical ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":297.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"biomes are from each of them. However, we derived only two climate domains ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":285.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"because several of the RCP regions cross both temperate and boreal biomes. A nar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":273.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","273.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18182373,"y":273.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"rative for each of these pathways is available in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":261.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"3.10","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.65","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.6498108,"y":261.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":" below.","dir":"ltr","width":"28.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.15","261.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.1498108,"y":261.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"Based on literature studies and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statis","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":249.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","249.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19281005,"y":249.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"tics, we then defined the available areas (and their uncertainties) for each of the four ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":237.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"sequestration pathways. Similarly, we sourced average estimates of the maximal ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":225.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"annual sequestration rates for the biomes (and their levels of uncertainty) for those ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":213.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"four sequestration pathways—again distinguished in the large temperate/boreal and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":201.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"subtropical/tropical climate domains. We assume that after a certain ‘phase-in ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":189.15979003} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"period’, this maximal annual sequestration rate can be reached and sustained for a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":177.15977478} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"number of years. We assume that after some decades to centuries, the capacities of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":165.15977478} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"these terrestrial ecosystems as carbon sinks will slowly decline until they reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":153.15977478} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"equilibrium, termed the ‘saturation’ period. At the equilibrium point, these ecosys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":141.15977478} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","141.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18179321,"y":141.15977478} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"tems have a net zero effect on atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"185.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":129.15977478} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","239.50","127.66"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.49679565,"y":127.65979766} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":" over the time scales of interest here ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.50","129.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.49679565,"y":129.1598053} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"(Houghton and Nassikas ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":117.15981292} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.09","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.086792,"y":117.15981292} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"). The period over which the maximal sequestration ","dir":"ltr","width":"212.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","176.09","117.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.086792,"y":117.15981292} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"rate is assumed, is reduced by the half-length of the corresponding phase-in and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":105.15979766} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"phase-out periods to account for the cumulative carbon uptake in those periods. As ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":93.15979766} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"the last element in this framework, we assume a cap on the median carbon density ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":81.15979766} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"change that is achieved over the full period. The difference between a degraded for","dir":"ltr","width":"328.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":69.15979766} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","69.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17678833,"y":69.15979766} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":119,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"68","dir":"ltr","width":"8.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Table 3.10","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.17034912} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Narrative for each sequestration pathway per climatic biome","dir":"ltr","width":"205.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","598.17"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":598.17034912} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Pathway","dir":"ltr","width":"29.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.692886329999986,"y":573.9188194399999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Climatic ","dir":"ltr","width":"31.41","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.76","583.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.75839231999998,"y":583.9147911199998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"domain","dir":"ltr","width":"25.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.76","573.92"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.75839231999998,"y":573.9188194399999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Narrative","dir":"ltr","width":"31.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.57","573.92"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.57489012,"y":573.9188194399999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Forest ecosystem ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","561.27"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.701385469999984,"y":561.2708091799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"restoration (set aside ","dir":"ltr","width":"72.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","551.27"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.701385469999984,"y":551.2748374999999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"areas of degraded ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","541.28"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.701385469999984,"y":541.2788047999999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"natural forest to restore ","dir":"ltr","width":"81.20","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","531.28"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.701385469999984,"y":531.2828331099998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"to primary forest—25% ","dir":"ltr","width":"83.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","521.29"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.701385469999984,"y":521.2868003999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"of total)","dir":"ltr","width":"27.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","511.29"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.701385469999984,"y":511.2908287099998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Te,B","dir":"ltr","width":"16.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.77","561.29"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.76689144999997,"y":561.2878379999999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Assume 25% of degraded natural forest put aside for full ","dir":"ltr","width":"195.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","561.29"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":561.2878379999999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"ecosystem and carbon stock recovery. Saturation times in ","dir":"ltr","width":"196.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","551.29"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":551.2918052799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"temperate and boreal forests can be well over 100, or even ","dir":"ltr","width":"200.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","541.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":541.2958335999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"200 years (Luyssaert et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"91.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","531.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":531.2998008799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2008","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","273.17","531.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.17088315,"y":531.2998008799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"; Roxburgh et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"58.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","290.17","531.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.17088315,"y":531.2998008799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2006","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","349.11","531.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.10987852,"y":531.2998008799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"7.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","366.11","531.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.10987852,"y":531.2998008799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"25% set-aside is slightly higher than assumptions made in ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","521.30"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":521.3038291999999} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"recent literature (Böttcher et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"108.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","511.31"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":511.30782700999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","290.16","511.31"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.16239927,"y":511.30782700999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"; Nabuurs et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","307.16","511.31"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":307.16239927,"y":511.30782700999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","361.05","511.31"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.0523834,"y":511.30782700999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"), ","dir":"ltr","width":"7.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","378.05","511.31"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":378.0523834,"y":511.30782700999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"but in line with calls from conservation and indigenous ","dir":"ltr","width":"189.20","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","501.31"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":501.31182480999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"movements.","dir":"ltr","width":"41.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","491.32"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":491.3158226099998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"S,Tr","dir":"ltr","width":"14.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.77","479.48"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.76689144999997,"y":479.4838218799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Assume 25% of degraded natural forests across the tropics ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.23","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","479.48"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":479.4838218799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"set aside for full ecosystem and carbon stock recovery. ","dir":"ltr","width":"187.56","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","469.49"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":469.4878196799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Stopping all deforestation, wood harvest and temporary ","dir":"ltr","width":"191.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","459.49"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":459.4918174799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"use, while traditional and customary uses continue. Net ","dir":"ltr","width":"190.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","449.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":449.4958152999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Primary Productivity (NPP) is higher across the tropics ","dir":"ltr","width":"189.61","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","439.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":439.49981309999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"than in temperate and boreal biomes (Anav et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"167.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","429.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":429.50381089999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","349.02","429.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.01637265,"y":429.50381089999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"), ","dir":"ltr","width":"7.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","366.02","429.50"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.01637265,"y":429.50381089999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"hence sequestration rates are higher, but saturation times ","dir":"ltr","width":"194.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","419.51"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":419.5078086999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"are shorter. We assume 60 years to ecosystem maturity ","dir":"ltr","width":"187.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","409.51"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":409.5118064999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"(Arneth et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","399.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":399.5158042999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","228.79","399.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.79238888999998,"y":399.5158042999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"; Poorter et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","245.79","399.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":245.79238888999998,"y":399.5158042999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","296.08","399.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.07838437,"y":399.5158042999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"). Sequestration rates ","dir":"ltr","width":"73.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","313.08","399.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.07838437,"y":399.5158042999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"across all biomes for forest ecosystem restoration are lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"203.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","389.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":389.51980209999977} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"than post-logging recovery rates, as here we assume mixed ","dir":"ltr","width":"202.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","379.52"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":379.52383041999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"age-class forests which have not been recently logged than ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","369.53"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":369.52782822999984} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"(>20 years ago), which then saturates when forest reaches ","dir":"ltr","width":"198.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","359.53"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":359.5318260299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"maturity.","dir":"ltr","width":"30.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","349.54"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.58338926,"y":349.5358238299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Reforestation (forest ","dir":"ltr","width":"72.23","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.71","337.70"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.70988461999999,"y":337.7038230999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"expansion through ","dir":"ltr","width":"65.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.71","327.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.70988461999999,"y":327.7078208999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"natural regeneration)","dir":"ltr","width":"70.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.71","317.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.70988461999999,"y":317.71181869999975} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Te","dir":"ltr","width":"7.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.78","337.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.77539059999998,"y":337.7123069999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Forest expansion on recently deforested land via natural ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","337.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":337.7123069999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"regeneration of forests (passive regeneration) or ","dir":"ltr","width":"164.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","327.72"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":327.71630479999976} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"reforestation of mixed native species (assisted ","dir":"ltr","width":"158.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","317.72"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":317.72030259999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"regeneration). Extent of forest expansion is assumed to ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","307.72"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":307.7243309099998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"occur in line with current political targets: 350 Mha of ","dir":"ltr","width":"186.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","297.73"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":297.7283287099998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"reforestation by 2030 under the Bonn Challenge. Further, ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","287.73"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":287.7323265199998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"this 350 Mha is assumed to be reforestation for ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","277.74"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":277.73632431999977} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"conservation purposes, which creates an ongoing sink from ","dir":"ltr","width":"203.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","267.74"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":267.74032211999975} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2030 to 2100, with saturation assumed at 100 years. Boreal ","dir":"ltr","width":"203.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","257.74"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":257.74431992999985} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"areas excluded due to albedo effect (Houghton and ","dir":"ltr","width":"174.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","247.75"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":247.7483177299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Nassikas ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","237.75"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":237.7523155299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","213.93","237.75"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.93438718,"y":237.7523155299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","230.93","237.75"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.93438718,"y":237.7523155299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"S,Tr","dir":"ltr","width":"14.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.78","225.92"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.77539059999998,"y":225.9203147999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"Natural forest expansion on recently deforested land as ","dir":"ltr","width":"189.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","225.92"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":225.9203147999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"described above. We assume 80% of forest expansion ","dir":"ltr","width":"183.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","215.92"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":215.9243125999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"occurs in the tropics, given 80% of Bonn Challenge pledges ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","205.93"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":205.9283103999998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"are in tropical regions (Wheeler et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"128.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","195.93"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":195.9323234699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"in press","dir":"ltr","width":"26.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","310.34","195.93"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":310.34138486,"y":195.9323234699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"). All ","dir":"ltr","width":"19.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","336.55","195.93"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.54689023,"y":195.9323234699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"regeneration is assumed to be with natural forests rather ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","185.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":185.9363212699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"than plantations, as this delivers the highest mitigation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","175.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":175.9403190699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"biodiversity values (Grace et al., ","dir":"ltr","width":"112.05","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","165.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":165.9443168699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","293.64","165.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.63887022,"y":165.9443168699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"; Wheeler et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.54","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","310.64","165.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":310.63887022,"y":165.9443168699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"in ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","364.44","165.94"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.435379,"y":165.9443168699998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"press","dir":"ltr","width":"17.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","155.95"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":155.9483146799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"). Saturation of tropical regrowth forests is assumed at ","dir":"ltr","width":"186.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","199.06","155.95"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":199.05938718,"y":155.9483146799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"60 years, although large trees can take well over a century ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.20","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","145.95"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":145.9523124799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"to mature (Poorter et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"83.10","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","135.96"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5918884,"y":135.9563102799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","264.69","135.96"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.68788144,"y":135.9563102799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.69","135.96"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.68788144,"y":135.9563102799998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"(continued)","dir":"ltr","width":"39.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.35","122.37"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.34736632,"y":122.3733177299998} {"page":120,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+HyhprcCpgbfxChnrkpTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99839779999996,"y":623.6531944399999} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"69","dir":"ltr","width":"8.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.03","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.03219604,"y":623.65332031} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"est ecosystem and its natural carbon-carrying capacity is the maximum potential for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"additional sequestration. Therefore, we used biome-averaged values for the per ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"hectare carbon density of undisturbed forest ecosystems (Keith et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"279.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2009","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.54","145.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.53530883,"y":145.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"), rather ","dir":"ltr","width":"34.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","353.54","145.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":353.53530883,"y":145.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"than average global biome values (Liu et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"179.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.52","133.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.5222931,"y":133.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"), to define the maximum carbon ","dir":"ltr","width":"134.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","253.52","133.58"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.5222931,"y":133.58380126} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"density. 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Our scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.87","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","307.83","349.69"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":307.83388518000004,"y":349.69022563} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"assumes no commercial logging of tropical forests, and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"202.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","339.69"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5833969,"y":339.69422342999997} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"extent of shifting cultivation is halved, allowing traditional ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.45","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","329.70"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5833969,"y":329.69822123000006} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"practices to continue with lengthened fallow times and/or ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","319.70"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5833969,"y":319.70221904000005} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"improved swidden practices (Mackey et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"148.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","309.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5833969,"y":309.70621684} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","329.59","309.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.59389494000004,"y":309.70621684} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"; Ziegler ","dir":"ltr","width":"31.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.59","309.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.59389494000004,"y":309.70621684} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.58","299.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.5833969,"y":299.71021464} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","200.23","299.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.23239897,"y":299.71021464} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","217.23","299.71"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.23239897,"y":299.71021464} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"Agroforestry (Trees in ","dir":"ltr","width":"78.30","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.71","287.88"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.70989226,"y":287.87821391} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"croplands)","dir":"ltr","width":"35.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.71","277.88"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.70989226,"y":277.88221171} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"T,B","dir":"ltr","width":"11.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.78","287.88"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.77539824,"y":287.87821391} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"We calculate biome-average sequestration rates from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"194.23","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","287.88"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":287.87821391} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"literature for above-ground carbon uptake due to a broad ","dir":"ltr","width":"194.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","277.88"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":277.88221171} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"range of agroforestry practices (Watson et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.10","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","267.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":267.88620951999997} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2000","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","336.69","267.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.69139860999996,"y":267.88620951999997} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"; ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","353.69","267.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":353.69139860999996,"y":267.88620951999997} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"Nabuurs et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"49.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":257.89020732000006} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","230.99","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.99388883999998,"y":257.89020732000006} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"; Ramachandran Nair et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"93.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","247.99","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":247.99388883999998,"y":257.89020732000006} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2009","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","341.47","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.46840666,"y":257.89020732000006} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"), and ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","358.47","257.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":358.46840666,"y":257.89020732000006} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"subtract from this the baseline increase observed by Zomer ","dir":"ltr","width":"202.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","247.89"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":247.89422038} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"21.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","237.90"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":237.89821818000001} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","203.07","237.90"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.07138823,"y":237.89821818000001} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"). We apply this uptake to 20% of permanent ","dir":"ltr","width":"153.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","220.07","237.90"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.07138823,"y":237.89821818000001} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"cropland, and assume the resulting sequestration rate could ","dir":"ltr","width":"202.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","227.90"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":227.90221599} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"be sustained for 50 years (Watson et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"135.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","181.59","217.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.59189604,"y":217.90621379} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2000","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","317.12","217.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.11589812,"y":217.90621379} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","334.12","217.91"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.11589812,"y":217.90621379} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"S,Tr","dir":"ltr","width":"14.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.78","276.07"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.77539824,"y":276.07172587} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"These domains are defined as temperate (Te), boreal (B), subtropical (S), or tropical (Tr). Note, this ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.88","204.57"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.879390699999995,"y":204.56972697} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"narrative overlaps with another land-use-related study (Dooley et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"233.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.88","194.57"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.879390699999995,"y":194.57372477} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","287.32","194.57"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.32253263999996,"y":194.57372477} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","304.32","194.57"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.32253263999996,"y":194.57372477} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.88","623.81"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.879390699999995,"y":623.80671123} {"page":121,"change":"none","str":"Methodology","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.63","623.81"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.62939451999999,"y":623.80671123} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"70","dir":"ltr","width":"8.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"3.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.57","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.56829833,"y":597.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":". Our method of combining these input assumptions is a basic Monte Carlo ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.87","597.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.8683014,"y":597.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"ensemble. Given the symmetry or asymmetry and respective confidence intervals of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"the factors provided, we then created normal, lognormal, or skewed normal distribu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","573.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19329833,"y":573.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"tions (the latter is a linear combination of the normal and lognormal distributions to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"achieve the desired skewedness). We then made 500 independent draws from all four ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"factors considered (area, maximum sequestration rate, phase-in time, and phase-out ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"time). We repeated that process independently for each sequestration pathway and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"for each country within each climate domain. The areas for each country within the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"climate domains were assumed to be proportionally distributed by the relevant ‘FAO ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"Scaling Area’ (see third column in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"3.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.53","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.52830505,"y":489.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"), so that the climate domain aggregate ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","232.83","489.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.82829284,"y":489.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"areas matched our input assumptions for the respective sequestration pathway.","dir":"ltr","width":"308.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"After combining all the country-specific and sequestration-pathway-specific ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"time series for carbon uptake per sequestration pathway, we then checked whether ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"the resulting cumulative sequestration over time (specifically its median) was at or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"below the specified maximum for the median carbon density change per hectare. If ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"it was not, we scaled all the country-specific results proportionally, so that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"median matched the cap on the carbon density gain.","dir":"ltr","width":"207.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"3.8.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","366.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":366.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"Model for the Assessment of GHG-Induced Climate ","dir":"ltr","width":"258.89","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","366.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":366.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"Change","dir":"ltr","width":"38.68","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","352.16"],"fontName":"RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":352.15579223} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"To compute GHG concentrations and the implications for radiative forcing, global ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","324.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":324.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"mean temperatures, and global mean sea-level rise, we used the reduced-complexity ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","312.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":312.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"‘Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas-induced Climate Change’ ","dir":"ltr","width":"340.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","300.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":300.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"(MAGICC), as described by Meinshausen et  al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"204.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","288.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":288.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","258.70","288.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.69729614,"y":288.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"). The model has recently ","dir":"ltr","width":"110.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","278.70","288.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":278.69729614,"y":288.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"been extended by the addition of a newly designed sea-level rise module, as ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","276.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":276.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"described in Nauels et al. 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This is much broader than for earth system models, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","156.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":156.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"because it would be too computationally expensive to carry around tracers for every ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","144.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":144.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"minute GHG concentrations of, say, HFC227EA.  Because of the breadth of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","132.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":132.15979003} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"GHGs that MAGICC can model, its calibrated carbon cycle, and its calibrated cli","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","120.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":120.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","120.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2072754,"y":120.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"mate system with feedbacks and heat exchange parameterizations, it is frequently ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","108.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":108.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"used as a climate model in IAMs. For example, the IMAGE and MESSAGE teams ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","96.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":96.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"both have MAGICC inbuilt.","dir":"ltr","width":"111.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","84.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":84.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"IPCC Assessment Reports also frequently use MAGICC as the modelling frame","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","72.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":72.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","72.16"],"fontName":"CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1822815,"y":72.1597824} {"page":122,"change":"none","str":"work to determine the exceedance probabilities of various emission pathways. 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Presentation of the non-energy GHG ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"mitigation scenarios calculated to complement the energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"285.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","339.38","391.64"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.37631129,"y":391.64169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"46.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.38","393.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.37631129,"y":393.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"derived in Chap. 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Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"129.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":247.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","184.85","247.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.84820459999997,"y":247.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":" below shows the annual sequestration in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.35","247.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.34820459999997,"y":247.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"sequestration pathways over time, differentiated into climate domains. The path","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":235.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","235.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18218898,"y":235.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"ways shown are the results of the Monte Carlo analysis described in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"303.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":223.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"3.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","357.34","223.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.33819483999997,"y":223.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":" in ","dir":"ltr","width":"13.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","374.84","223.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":374.83819483999997,"y":223.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"22.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":211.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"3.8.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","76.57","211.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.56819818999998,"y":211.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":" and the text. We focus on the median values (thick lines in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"262.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.07","211.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.06819818999998,"y":211.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","367.18","211.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":367.17822169,"y":211.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.68","211.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.67822169,"y":211.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"Note that the area under the curve for a given pathway is an indication of the cumu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":199.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.24","199.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23818874,"y":199.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"lative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"38.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":187.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","92.56","185.64"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.55670069999998,"y":185.64169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":" uptake. By far the most important sequestration may result from large-","dir":"ltr","width":"289.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.56","187.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.55670069999998,"y":187.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"scale reforestation measures, particularly in the subtropics and tropics (see yellow ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85669993999998,"y":175.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"pathways in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"70.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85669993999998,"y":163.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","124.85","163.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.84670160999998,"y":163.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":" below). 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Although effective mitigation is not ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.14"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.859000189999975,"y":139.14169311} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"M. Meinshausen (","dir":"ltr","width":"61.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","110.82"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":110.82099914} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","115.47","110.82"],"fontName":"TIMVER+BbklpkVqlbhqRxrgbrWingdings-Regular","x":115.47399805999997,"y":110.82099914} {"page":131,"change":"none","str":") · K. 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The time horizon for this sequestration option is assumed to be relatively ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","317.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":317.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"long in temperate and boreal regions, consistent with the longer time it takes for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","305.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":305.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"these forest ecosystems to reach equilibrium (Roxburgh et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"246.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","293.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":293.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"2006","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","299.87","293.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.86828613,"y":293.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"; Luyssaert et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"68.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.87","293.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.86828613,"y":293.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"2008","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","281.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":281.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"). The ‘forest ecosystem restoration’ pathway is also important, which basi","dir":"ltr","width":"308.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","281.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":281.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","281.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":281.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"cally assumes a reduction to zero in logging rates in a fraction of the forest, allowing ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","269.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":269.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"these forests to be restored to full ecosystem function, including their carbon stocks ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","257.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":257.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"and resilience due to biodiversity (Mackey ","dir":"ltr","width":"172.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","245.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":245.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.51","245.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.50630187,"y":245.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.51","245.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.50630187,"y":245.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"Overall, the median of all the assumed sequestration pathways, shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","233.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":233.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.57","233.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.56829833,"y":233.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.01","233.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.00830078,"y":233.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"would result in the sequestration of 151.9 GtC by 2150. 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There ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","161.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":161.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"would be significant benefits, but also risks, if this sequestration option were to be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","149.55"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":149.54559326} {"page":132,"change":"none","str":"used instead of mitigation. 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Instead, it assumes that they are not phased-out until approximately 2080.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.855999,"y":321.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0  °C pathway (brighter blue in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8560028,"y":309.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"4.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.12","309.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.11599731,"y":309.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":") aligns relatively well with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"133.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.62","309.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.61599731,"y":309.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"SSP1 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 scenarios from the forthcoming CMIP6 model inter-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":297.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"comparison project. The 1.5 °C pathway, with three times the sequestration rates, is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":285.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"consistent with the lower land-use CO","dir":"ltr","width":"157.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85599136,"y":273.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","210.87","271.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":210.87269592,"y":271.65979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":" scenarios analysed here—with mitigation ","dir":"ltr","width":"174.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","213.87","273.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.87269592,"y":273.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"rates of up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":261.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"−","dir":"ltr","width":"6.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.85","261.16"],"fontName":"SJXPQT+TvvygxPgfrmyDsgrxlSTIXGeneral-Regular","x":108.85269927,"y":261.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"2 GtC per annum from 2040 to 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"148.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","115.70","261.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":115.70269775,"y":261.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86270141,"y":249.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"4.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.25","249.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.2527008,"y":249.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":" shows the land-use-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"128.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.75","249.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.7527008,"y":249.15979003} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","236.14","247.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.13989257,"y":247.6598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":" emission and sequestration rates of ","dir":"ltr","width":"149.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.14","249.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.13989257,"y":249.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0°C and 1.5  °C pathways in this study compared with those in the CMIP6 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85988998,"y":237.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"CEDS scenarios (turquoise) and the scenarios from the IPCC SR1.5 database (thin ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85988998,"y":225.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"green lines). The global total pathway is the sum of the five regional pathways ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85988998,"y":213.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"shown in the lower row of the panels.","dir":"ltr","width":"149.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85988998,"y":201.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"4.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","157.16"],"fontName":"IXVCGN+SxrqdfCghnmcVxpnrxTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":157.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"Other GHG and Aerosol Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"174.70","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","157.16"],"fontName":"IXVCGN+SxrqdfCghnmcVxpnrxTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":157.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"This section examines the other main GHGs (methane and N","dir":"ltr","width":"239.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","293.09","127.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.08850097,"y":127.65979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"O) and gives examples ","dir":"ltr","width":"91.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","296.09","129.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.08850097,"y":129.1598053} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"of some fluorinated gases. The full results, with the species-by-species time series, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850906,"y":117.15981292} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"are provided in a data appendix.","dir":"ltr","width":"128.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850906,"y":105.15979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"Methane (CH","dir":"ltr","width":"54.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85851287,"y":93.15979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","119.88","91.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":119.87879943,"y":91.65979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":") emissions are the second-largest contributor to anthropogenically ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","122.82","93.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":122.82479858,"y":93.15979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"induced climate change. Our approach, described in the Methods section earlier, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","81.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85480117,"y":81.15979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"derives pathways for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios that are close to the lower end ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","69.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85480117,"y":69.15979766} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"of the overall scenario distribution. This is mainly because the methane distribution at ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","57.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85480117,"y":57.15980148} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":133,"change":"none","str":"Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG","dir":"ltr","width":"147.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":134,"change":"none","str":"82","dir":"ltr","width":"8.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":134,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 4.2","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","393.22","69.15"],"fontName":"YSZZWH+PvgvkqLpcflpCgcwwnTimesLTStd-Bold","x":393.22061157,"y":69.15200042} {"page":134,"change":"none","str":"Land-use-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"71.52","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","393.22","101.44"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":393.22061157,"y":101.4434967} {"page":134,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["0.00","5.10","-5.10","0.00","394.50","172.96"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":394.49560546,"y":172.9611969} {"page":134,"change":"none","str":" emission and sequestration rates","dir":"ltr","width":"111.90","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","393.22","175.51"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":393.22061157,"y":175.51119995} {"page":134,"change":"none","str":"M. Meinshausen and K. Dooley","dir":"ltr","width":"109.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","276.07","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+BftlvmMdqjdjQvtwgnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.07211303,"y":623.65319824} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"83","dir":"ltr","width":"8.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.10","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.10449218,"y":623.65332031} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"the lower end of the fossil fuel CO","dir":"ltr","width":"143.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","197.78","595.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.77859497,"y":595.65979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":" emissions is relatively narrow, and there is a ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","200.72","597.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.72459411,"y":597.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"strong correlation between the fossil CO","dir":"ltr","width":"158.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","585.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85459136,"y":585.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","212.44","583.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":212.43600463,"y":583.65979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":" and total CH","dir":"ltr","width":"52.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.38","585.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.38200378,"y":585.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","267.98","583.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":267.97729492,"y":583.65979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":" emissions in the scenarios in ","dir":"ltr","width":"117.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","270.92","585.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.92330932,"y":585.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"any given year (see top-left methane panel in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"195.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8633194,"y":573.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"3.14","dir":"ltr","width":"17.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","248.98","573.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":248.98332214,"y":573.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"). As with almost all literature-","dir":"ltr","width":"119.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","266.12","573.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":266.12332153,"y":573.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"reported scenarios, a lower plateau of methane emissions is associated with agricul","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8633194,"y":561.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","561.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14331054,"y":561.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"tural activities required to feed the world’s population. Our quantile regression method ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8633194,"y":549.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"resulted in long-term methane emission levels that are quite similar to those in the two ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8633194,"y":537.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"lower SSP scenarios, SSP1 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"195.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8633194,"y":525.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"4.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","248.72","525.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":248.72331237,"y":525.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"). The derived CH","dir":"ltr","width":"69.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","260.95","525.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.9533081,"y":525.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","330.23","523.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.22940063,"y":523.65979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":" pathways for ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.18","525.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.17541503,"y":525.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C and 2.0 °C track towards the lower of the scenario distributions.","dir":"ltr","width":"276.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85541915,"y":513.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"Nitrous oxide (N","dir":"ltr","width":"71.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85542297,"y":501.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","137.84","499.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":137.83790588,"y":499.65979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"O) is one of the longer-lived GHGs, although the overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"249.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","140.84","501.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.83790588,"y":501.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"amounts in the atmosphere are much smaller than those of methane or CO","dir":"ltr","width":"307.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85791015,"y":489.15979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","361.24","487.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.24459838,"y":487.65979003} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":". 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Asia produces by far the most SO","dir":"ltr","width":"286.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.57","141.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.57009887,"y":141.1598053} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"X","dir":"ltr","width":"4.33","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","356.20","139.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.19918823,"y":139.6598053} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"21.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.53","141.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.53109741,"y":141.1598053} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","141.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1810913,"y":141.1598053} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"sions of any continent because of the coal-fuelled power plants in China and India. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":129.1598053} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0 °C Scenario, our quantile regression method sets sulfate aerosol emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":117.15979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"at levels in between those in the SSP1 2.6 and SSP1 1.9 scenarios, whereas in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":105.15979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario, the level is even lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"159.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":93.15979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"Similarly, the projected emissions of NO","dir":"ltr","width":"161.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","81.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86109924,"y":81.15979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"X","dir":"ltr","width":"4.33","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","226.80","79.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.80119323,"y":79.65979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":", which is largely a by-product of fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"156.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.13","81.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.13310241,"y":81.15979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"fuel burning, are highest in Asia. In the derived 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, NO","dir":"ltr","width":"327.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86310958,"y":69.15979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"X","dir":"ltr","width":"4.33","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","381.18","67.66"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":381.17999267,"y":67.65979766} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":135,"change":"none","str":"Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG","dir":"ltr","width":"147.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":136,"change":"none","str":"84","dir":"ltr","width":"8.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":136,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 4.3","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","395.72","69.15"],"fontName":"YSZZWH+PvgvkqLpcflpCgcwwnTimesLTStd-Bold","x":395.72039794,"y":69.15200042} {"page":136,"change":"none","str":"Global and regional methane emissions from fossil, industrial, and land-use-related sources","dir":"ltr","width":"310.55","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","395.72","101.44"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":395.72039794,"y":101.4434967} {"page":136,"change":"none","str":"M. 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Similar to other ","dir":"ltr","width":"73.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","314.83","176.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":314.8283081,"y":176.0928955} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"aerosol emissions, black and organic carbon emissions are projected to decrease. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","164.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":164.0928955} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"Although black carbon is a substantial warming agent, organic carbon is a net cool","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","152.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":152.0928955} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","152.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":152.0928955} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"ant. Because both species are often co-emitted, the net effect of policies to reduce ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","140.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":140.0928955} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"black carbon do not have as large a mitigation benefit as might be initially assumed. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","128.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":128.0928955} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"This is because a reduction in the processes and activities that produce black carbon ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","116.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":116.09288787} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"emissions will also lead to lower organic carbon emissions, partially offsetting both ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","104.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":104.09288787} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"the warming and cooling effects. The emissions projected as part of the IMAGE ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","92.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":92.09288787} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"model SSP1 2.6 and SSP1 1.9 scenarios are very low compared with those in other ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","80.09"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":80.09288787} {"page":138,"change":"none","str":"studies. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"97.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","287.23"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":287.231781} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.07.010","dir":"ltr","width":"150.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","163.36","287.23"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.36380004,"y":287.231781} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"Roxburgh, S.H., Wood, S.W., Mackey, B.G., Woldendorp, G., Gibbons, P., 2006. 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If material is not ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","129.11"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.10629272} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","119.11"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.11029052} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","109.11"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":109.11428833} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"the copyright holder.","dir":"ltr","width":"70.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","99.12"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.11829376} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RfqyffTslwfxLhxsbbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":143,"change":"none","str":"Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG","dir":"ltr","width":"147.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"KKYTIJ+RfqyffTslwfxLhxsbbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"93","dir":"ltr","width":"8.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.01","56.71"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.01180933999996,"y":56.70920181} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"© The Author(s) 2019 ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","56.71"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"AZIDKT+VmsxmqTkhlllPmtgrmTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_5","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 5","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"274.85","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, and Sven Teske","dir":"ltr","width":"267.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"The aim of this chapter is to make the scenario calculations fully trans","dir":"ltr","width":"285.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.89","465.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.88829706999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","465.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829126999995,"y":465.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"parent and comprehensible to the scientific community. It provides the scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"narratives for the reference case (5.0 °C) as well as for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"global and regional basis. Cost projections for all fossil fuels and renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"technologies until 2050 are provided. Explanations are given for all relevant base ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"year data for the modelling and the main input parameters such as GDP, population, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy potentials and technology parameters.","dir":"ltr","width":"224.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Scenario studies cannot predict the future, but they can describe what is needed for a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":357.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"successful pathway in terms of technology implementation and investments. Scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":345.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"also help us to explore the possible effects of transition processes, such as supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":333.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"costs and emissions. The energy demand and supply scenarios in this study are based ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":321.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"on information about current energy structures and today’s knowledge of energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":309.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"resources and the costs involved in deploying them. As far as possible, we also take ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":297.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"into account potential constraints and preferences in each world region. However, this ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":285.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"remains difficult due to large sub-regional variations. Our energy modelling primarily ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":273.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"aims to achieve a transparent and consistent scenario, an ambitious but still plausible ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":261.13769531} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"storyline from several possible techno-economic pathways. Knowledge integration ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":249.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"is the core of this approach because we must consider different technical, ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":237.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"economic, environmental, and societal factors. The scenario modelling follows a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":225.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"hybrid bottom-","dir":"ltr","width":"60.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":213.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"up/top-down approach, with no cost optimising objective functions. ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.88","213.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.87830255999998,"y":213.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"The analysis considers the key technologies required for a successful energy transi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":201.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","201.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831202,"y":201.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"tion, and focuses on the roles and potential of renewable energies. Wind and solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":189.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"energies have the highest economic potential and dominate the pathways on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.14"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":177.13771057} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger (","dir":"ltr","width":"40.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","147.17"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":147.17100524} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","93.94","147.17"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+ThtwdtDpjsrdHjhhnqWingdings-Regular","x":93.93530176999998,"y":147.17100524} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":") · S. Simon · T. Naegler","dir":"ltr","width":"82.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","102.43","147.17"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.42769525999998,"y":147.17100524} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Department of Energy Systems Analysis, German Aerospace Center (DLR), ","dir":"ltr","width":"262.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","137.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85868738999998,"y":137.17500305} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Engineering Thermodynamics (TT), Pfaffenwaldring, Germany","dir":"ltr","width":"258.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","127.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85868738999998,"y":127.17900848} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","117.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85868738999998,"y":117.18300628} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":" thomas.pregger@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"81.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","117.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93919275999998,"y":117.18300628} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","159.53","117.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.53068445999997,"y":117.18300628} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":" sonja.simon@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"69.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","161.89","117.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.89369104999997,"y":117.18300628} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","231.82","117.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.82319545,"y":117.18300628} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":" tobias.naegler@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"76.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","234.19","117.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":234.18618677999999,"y":117.18300628} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske","dir":"ltr","width":"28.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","102.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85868738999998,"y":102.18051147} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","92.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85868738999998,"y":92.18450927} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","82.19"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85868738999998,"y":82.18850708} {"page":144,"change":"none","str":" sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","82.19"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93919275999998,"y":82.18850708} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"94","dir":"ltr","width":"8.64","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"supply side. However, variable renewable power from wind and photovoltaics (PV) ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"remains limited by the need for sufficient secured capacity in energy systems. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, we also consider concentrated solar power (CSP) with high-temperature ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"heat storage as a solar option that promises large-scale dispatchable and secured ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"power generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"70.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","505.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":505.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Scenario Definition","dir":"ltr","width":"98.34","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","505.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":505.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Scenario modelling was performed for three main scenarios that can be related to dif","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":477.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"ferent overall carbon budgets between 2015 and 2050 and derived mean global tem","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":465.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"perature increases. The (around) 5.0 °C Scenario was calculated based on the Current ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Policies scenario published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in World ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Energy Outlook 2017 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"111.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"19.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","164.93","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.92829895,"y":429.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"), and the emission budget for this scenario simply ","dir":"ltr","width":"203.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","184.61","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.60830688,"y":429.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"uses and extrapolates from the corresponding narratives. The 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios were calculated in a normative way to achieve defined emission budgets.","dir":"ltr","width":"325.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"5.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","361.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":361.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario)","dir":"ltr","width":"207.99","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","361.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":361.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"The reference case only takes into account existing international energy and envi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":333.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"ronmental policies. Its assumptions include, for example, continuing progress in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"electricity and gas market reforms, the liberalization of cross-border energy trade, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"and recent policies designed to combat environmental pollution. The scenario does ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"not include additional policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"the IEA’s projections only extend to 2040, we have extrapolated their key macroeco","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":273.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"nomic and energy indicators forward to 2050. This provides a baseline for compari","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":261.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"son with the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"166.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"5.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","205.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"100.14","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","205.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"The first alternative scenario aims to achieve an ambitious emissions reduction to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"zero by 2050 and a global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"181.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","235.00","163.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.00109863,"y":163.6598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":" emissions budget between 2015 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"150.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.00","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.00109863,"y":165.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"2050 of around 590 Gt. The scenario is close to the assumptions and results of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":153.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"Advanced E[R] scenario published in 2015 by Greenpeace (Teske et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":141.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.66","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.66308593,"y":141.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.66","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.66308593,"y":141.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"However, the scenario includes an updated base year, more coherent regional devel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":129.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1810913,"y":129.1598053} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"opments of energy intensities, and reconsidered trajectories and shares of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":117.15979766} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"energy resource (RES) deployment. The 2.0  °C Scenario represents a far more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":105.15979766} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"likely pathway than the 1.5 °C Scenario, because the 2.0 °C case takes into account ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":93.15979766} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"unavoidable delays due to political, economic, and societal processes and ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":81.15979766} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"stakeholders.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109924,"y":69.15979766} {"page":145,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"95","dir":"ltr","width":"8.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","377.05","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.05010986,"y":623.65332031} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"5.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"100.14","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"The second alternative scenario aims to achieve a global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"303.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","357.54","566.29"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.53961181,"y":566.29382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"21.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.54","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.53961181,"y":567.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17959594,"y":567.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"sion budget of around 450 Gt, accumulated between 2015 and 2050. The 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":555.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"Scenario requires immediate action to realize all available options. It is a technical ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":543.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"pathway, not a political prognosis. It refers to technically possible measures and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":531.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"options without taking into account societal risks or barriers. Efficiency and renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":519.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","519.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19961547,"y":519.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"able potentials must be deployed even more quickly than in the 2.0  °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":507.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"Furthermore, avoiding inefficient technologies and behaviours are essential strate","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":495.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","495.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15960693,"y":495.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"gies for developing regions in this time period.","dir":"ltr","width":"186.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85961914,"y":483.79382324} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","439.79"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":439.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"Scenario World Regions and Clusters","dir":"ltr","width":"191.41","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","439.79"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":439.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"The regional implementation of the long-term energy scenarios is defined according ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"to the breakdown of the ten world regions of the IEA WEO 2016 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"2016a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.92","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.91830444,"y":399.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.16","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.1583252,"y":399.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","374.77","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":374.76831054,"y":399.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.73","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.728302,"y":399.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"This approach has been chosen because the IEA also provides the most comprehen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","387.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":387.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","387.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18933105,"y":387.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"sive global energy statistics and, in contrast to the regional breakdown of the IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","375.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":375.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"WEO 2017, it is also consistent with the Energy [R]evolution study series. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"319.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","363.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":363.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","373.10","363.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.09832763,"y":363.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"provides a country breakdown of the ten world regions considered in the scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","351.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":351.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"Regional conditions play an important role in the layout of the scenario path","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","339.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86831665,"y":339.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","339.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":339.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"ways. Therefore, scenario building tries to take into account important factors, such ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","327.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":327.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"as current demand and supply structures, RES potentials, urbanization rates, and as ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","315.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":315.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"far as possible, societal and behavioural factors. The following sections provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","303.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":303.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"some regional information. Statistical data for the energy systems in the regions can ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","291.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":291.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"be found in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"70.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","279.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86832046,"y":279.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","124.14","279.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.13832092,"y":279.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","136.64","279.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":136.63832092,"y":279.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"5.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","235.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":235.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America","dir":"ltr","width":"110.23","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","235.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":235.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"The energy system in OECD North America (USA, Canada, and Mexico) is domi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","207.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":207.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"nated by developments in the USA, where more than 80% of the region’s demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"occurs. In the highly developed countries of the USA and Canada, reducing the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"demand for energy by increasing efficiency will play a crucial role in decarbonisa","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","171.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":171.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"tion. However, the high energy intensity (i.e., the high demand per capita or per ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"gross domestic product [GDP]) requires even more ambitious measures than in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":147.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"other regions to reduce the energy demand as quickly as possible. In Mexico, in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":135.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"contrast, increasing living standards and the increasing population will increase the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":123.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"difficulties associated with reducing the energy demand, despite ambitious increases ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":111.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"in efficiency. Wind and solar power generation will be the backbone of the power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"supply in OECD North America. They will be supplemented by hydro power ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":87.79379272} {"page":146,"change":"none","str":"(mainly in Canada) and also concentrated solar power (CSP). 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","dir":"ltr","width":"265.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.65","196.74"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.64990234,"y":196.74382406999985} {"page":147,"change":"none","str":"Republic of Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, ","dir":"ltr","width":"244.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.65","186.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.64990234,"y":186.74782186999985} {"page":147,"change":"none","str":"Zimbabwe","dir":"ltr","width":"36.35","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.65","176.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.64990234,"y":176.75181966999986} {"page":147,"change":"none","str":"Middle East","dir":"ltr","width":"41.32","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","164.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69290161,"y":164.91981892999985} {"page":147,"change":"none","str":"Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.65","164.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.64990234,"y":164.91981892999985} {"page":147,"change":"none","str":"United Arab Emirates, Yemen","dir":"ltr","width":"101.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.65","154.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.64990234,"y":154.92381672999986} {"page":147,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.6532021099999} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"97","dir":"ltr","width":"8.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","376.93","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":376.92599487,"y":623.65332031} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"the vehicle market. In the heating sector, particularly for process heat, solid biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"and biogas will be required as alternative fuels until the (direct or indirect) electrifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":585.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"cation of the heat sector is accomplished.","dir":"ltr","width":"164.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"5.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","529.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":529.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"Latin America","dir":"ltr","width":"71.23","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","529.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":529.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"Latin America’s energy system is dominated by Brazil, which accounts for around ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"half the region’s energy demand. In the reference (5.0 °C) scenario, this region has a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"particularly high demand for electrification and a strong increase in CO","dir":"ltr","width":"286.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.59","475.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.58880615,"y":475.65979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.55","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.55279541,"y":477.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"per capita. Latin America has the highest urbanization rate of all non-OECD regions. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":465.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"This provides opportunities for efficiency measures and the large-scale electrification ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":453.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"of the heat and transport sectors based on renewable resources. Latin America has a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":441.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"high overall potential for the use of renewable energies (Herreras Martínez et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":429.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":417.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":") and the largest biomass potential of all regions. It already meets more than ","dir":"ltr","width":"315.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.62","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.62280273,"y":417.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"60% of its power demand from renewable sources, and higher shares are the focus of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":405.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"research (Nascimento et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"109.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","163.45","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.45480346,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"; Barbosa et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.21","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.21479797,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","244.61","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":244.60780334,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"; Gils et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"45.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","264.37","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.36779785,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.84","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.8407898,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"). However, in ","dir":"ltr","width":"58.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","329.60","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.60079956,"y":393.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"many studies, heat and transport demands are not integrated into the assessments, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":381.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"even though the region has a large potential for renewable heat and decarbonised ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":369.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"transport. Given the abundance of biomass, there is potential for generating more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":357.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"than 12 EJ from residues (Seidenberger et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"178.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":345.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2008","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.94","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.9407959,"y":345.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"). Biomass will also play a signifi","dir":"ltr","width":"130.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.70","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.70080566,"y":345.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20080566,"y":345.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"cant role in the industry sector. Because the region has a long experience of biofuels, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":333.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"they will play a major role in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, especially in Brazil, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":321.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"where bioethanol for transport is already competitive (Lora and Andrade ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":309.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2009","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.35","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.35379028,"y":309.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"; La ","dir":"ltr","width":"19.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.11","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.11380004,"y":309.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"Rovere et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":297.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.99","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.99279785,"y":297.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"; Nass et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","127.75","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.75279998,"y":297.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2007","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","178.67","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.6717987,"y":297.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"). However, the high urbanization rate in Latin ","dir":"ltr","width":"190.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","198.43","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":198.43179321,"y":297.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"America means there is also an opportunity to develop electromobility early. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":285.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"power sector, the use of biomass from residues will help to balance the increasing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":273.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"share of variable renewable energy from the excellent solar and wind resources. Grid ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":261.15979003} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"extensions will contribute to inter-regional stability (Nascimento et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"278.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8628006,"y":249.15977478} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"19.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","332.03","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.0328064,"y":249.15977478} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","351.79","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":351.79278564,"y":249.15977478} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"5.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","205.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe","dir":"ltr","width":"73.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","205.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"The OECD Europe region includes countries with quite different energy supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"systems, different potentials for renewable energy sources, and different power and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"heat demand patterns. High solar potentials and low heat demand for buildings are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"characteristic of the south. The northern and western parts of Europe have high wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"potentials, especially offshore wind. In northern and central Europe, there are high ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.1598053} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"potentials for hydropower and a high energy demand for space heating (such as in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979766} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe). Biomass potentials exist predominantly in the north and east, but ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979766} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"are only limited in the southern regions. The industrial demands for electricity and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979766} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"process heat are quite different in highly industrialized countries, such as the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979766} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"Scandinavian countries, Germany, and France compared with some eastern and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15979766} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"southern countries. Most European countries, particularly European Union (EU) ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":57.15980148} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"member countries, already have policies and market mechanisms for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","45.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":45.15980148} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":148,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"98","dir":"ltr","width":"8.45","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"implementation of renewable energy. The European Network of Transmission ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"System Operators (ENTSO-E) can be used as a well-established basis for the further ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"development of an interconnected European grid, which would be able to imple","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":573.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"ment the large-scale and long-range transmission of renewable power to demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"centres. This may also lead to important interconnections to the Middle East/North ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"Africa (MENA) region and Eastern Europe/Eurasia. The possible large-scale impor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":537.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"tation of solar thermal electricity from MENA countries via high-voltage direct-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"current lines has been described in many studies and still represents a promising ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"option in the long term, despite the currently difficult political conditions.","dir":"ltr","width":"293.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"5.2.4","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","457.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":457.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia","dir":"ltr","width":"121.03","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","457.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":457.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"The Eastern Europe/Eurasia region includes some eastern EU member countries that ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"are not part of the OECD, some other countries of the former Yugoslav Republic, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"several countries of the former Soviet Union. However, the region is dominated by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"the economy and energy system of Russia. The main energy carrier today is natural ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"gas, followed by oil. The region has large energy resources in biomass and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"power, but also geothermal energy and PV. Eastern Europe/Eurasia is the only world ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"region that may face a significant population decline with expected demographic ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"developments, particularly in Russia. Today, the region has by far the highest final ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"and primary energy demand per $GDP.  This indicates the existence of energy-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"intensive industries, but also large efficiency potentials in all sectors. The high heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"demand, large rural areas, enormous oil and natural gas potentials, and the uneven ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"distribution of economic wealth are some of the major challenges in this region. So ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"far, only low expansion rates for renewable energies have been achieved in the region.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"5.2.5","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","241.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":241.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East","dir":"ltr","width":"82.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","241.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":241.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East consists of a series of oil-dependent countries, all of which have ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"tremendous solar potential. The transport demand in the Middle East is very high, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"as is the electrification rate in urban areas, where currently almost 70% of the fast-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"growing population lives. Therefore, the electrification of transport systems is a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"major target in our scenarios. For many Middle East countries, water scarcity is a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"problem, and there are opportunities to combine large CSP plants with water ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"desalination, to reduce the pressure on water supply systems. Biomass is very ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"scarce, so its use must be limited to high-temperature process heat, especially in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.1598053} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"industry, where other renewable sources cannot be used. This will lead to a high ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"demand for hydrogen or synthetic fuels. Naturally, this also limits the potential for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"combined heat and power generation (CHP), which is primarily seen as a transi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328857,"y":93.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"tion technology to provide the most efficient use of the remaining fossil fuels and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"low-","dir":"ltr","width":"18.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"value biomass wastes. However, because the Middle East has extraordinary ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.26","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":72.25830078,"y":69.15979766} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"solar and wind potentials (Nematollahi et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"181.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":57.15980148} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.42","57.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.41630554,"y":57.15980148} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"; Hess ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.74","57.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.7362976,"y":57.15980148} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","282.92","57.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.91629028,"y":57.15980148} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"), the solar market is ","dir":"ltr","width":"84.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","303.24","57.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.2362976,"y":57.15980148} {"page":149,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"99","dir":"ltr","width":"8.70","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","376.91","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":376.91409301,"y":623.65332031} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"taking off. Projects with a capacity of 11 GW are planned for 2018 (MESIA ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.27","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.26831054,"y":597.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.59","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.58828735,"y":597.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"With the extraordinarily high number of full-load hours, there is also the potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"to use high-temperature solar heat. These resources also provide excellent condi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17929077,"y":573.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"tions for hydrogen production, which are extensively exploited in the 2.0 °C and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenarios. Therefore, the Middle East is a model solar and hydrogen ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"region.","dir":"ltr","width":"28.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"5.2.6","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","493.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"Africa","dir":"ltr","width":"31.33","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","493.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"Africa is a very heterogeneous region, both economically and geographically. One ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"of the few things African nations have in common is their very fast population ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"growth. Africa includes the arid regions of North Africa, the undeveloped sub-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"Saharan region, and the emerging market of South Africa. North Africa features a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"high electrification rate and a strong dependence on oil. The water and biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"potentials for energy are very low, because water and biomass are prioritized for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"nutrition (or at least nutrition competes strongly with energy use). The region has ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"outstanding solar irradiation, an excellent renewable energy source. Sub-Saharan ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"Africa is characterized by low urbanization and a lack of access to electricity for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"two-thirds of its people (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"122.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","176.40","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.39830017,"y":357.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"). Its energy supply is characterized by a high ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","196.40","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":196.39830017,"y":357.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"share of low-efficiency forms of generation, such as traditional biomass use. There ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"is a general lack of energy services. Modernizing traditional biomass use could lead ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"to significant reductions in energy demand, while maintaining or improving energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"services (van der Zwaan et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"122.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","175.95","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.95230102,"y":309.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"). A broad variety of renewable energy sources, ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.95","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.95230102,"y":309.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"including biomass, hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind, have great potential. ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"However, it will be a major challenge to find the investment required to tap these ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"power sources under the present economic conditions (van der Zwaan et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.68","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.6783142,"y":273.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.68","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.6783142,"y":273.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"The picture is somewhat different in South Africa, which has a coal-based energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"system and a comparatively stable and well-connected electricity grid, with access ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"to electricity for more than 85% of its population (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"224.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","278.54","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":278.53829956,"y":237.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"). The dependence on ","dir":"ltr","width":"89.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","298.54","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":298.53829956,"y":237.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"traditional biomass is extensive in the household and commerce sectors. Over 700 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"million people rely on fuel wood or charcoal for cooking on inefficient cooking ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"stoves or open fires, with an efficiency of 10–20%. Modern biomass technologies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"provide multiple advantages. The introduction of more-efficient technologies, even ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"those as simple as improved cooking stoves (with an average efficiency of 25%) or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"biogas stoves (with an average efficiency of 65%) (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"224.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","278.66","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":278.6572876,"y":165.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"), will reduce the bio","dir":"ltr","width":"83.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","298.66","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":298.6572876,"y":165.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13729858,"y":165.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"mass input and thus the primary energy demand. This will also alleviate the heavy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"pressure on the ecosystem from the unsustainable exploitation of natural forests. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"The introduction of modern technologies will improve the supply of useful energy, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"lower indoor pollution, and improve living standards. Therefore, we assume in our ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"scenarios that the overall biomass efficiency will improve from 35% in 2015 to 65% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"in 2050, while biomass’s share will decrease and be partially replaced by electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"power and solar heat.","dir":"ltr","width":"85.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":150,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"100","dir":"ltr","width":"12.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"5.2.7","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia","dir":"ltr","width":"83.23","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"The Non-OECD Asia region includes all the developing countries of Asia, except ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"China and India. This group covers a large spectrum in terms of size, economy, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"stability, and developmental status. The region is spread over a large area from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"Arabian Sea to the Pacific. Electricity access varies widely in these countries, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"according to WEO 2014. In Southeast Asia, the average access is 77%, with only ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"30% access in Myanmar and Cambodia, and nearly 100% access in Singapore, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"Thailand, and Vietnam. In Indonesia, there is 76% access (92% in urban areas), in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"Bangladesh 60% (90%), and in Pakistan 69% (88%). In Southeast Asia, 46% of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"population still relies on traditional biomass, with the highest use in Myanmar ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"(93%) and Cambodia (89%). In Indonesia, 42% of the population used biomass for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"cooking in 2012; in Bangladesh the figure was 89%; and in Pakistan, it was 62%. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"The lowest values are in Singapore (0%), Malaysia (0%), and Thailand (24%). The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":435.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"scenarios thus cover the whole band-width of renewable resources and technologi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","423.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":423.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"cal development, even though the outlooks for individual countries deviate widely ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"from the average.","dir":"ltr","width":"69.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"5.2.8","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","355.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":355.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"India","dir":"ltr","width":"26.68","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","355.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":355.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"India has a fast-growing population of over 1.2 billion people and is the world’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"seventh largest country by area. However, the population density is already 2.7 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"times higher than that in China. Due to its climate, India has a rather limited CSP ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"potential but a large potential for PV power generation. Its wind power potential is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"expected to be limited by land-use constraints, but the technical potential estimated ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":279.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"from available meteorological data is large. According to the WEO 2014 database, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"electricity access is on average 75%, with 94% in urban areas and 67% in rural ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"areas. In India, about 815 million people still relied on the traditional use of biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"for cooking in 2012. Due to population and GDP growth, increasing living stan","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","231.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":231.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"dards, and increasing mobility, it is expected that the energy demand in India will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"increase significantly, although large potentials for efficiency savings exist. ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"Electrification is a core strategy for decarbonisation in India, which, combined with ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"the rising demand for energy services, will lead to strong growth in the per capita ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"and overall electricity demand. It is also expected that the need for mobility in India ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"will increase rapidly and more strongly than in other regions of the world.","dir":"ltr","width":"295.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.79379272} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"5.2.9","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","115.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":115.79380035} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"China","dir":"ltr","width":"30.68","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","115.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":115.79380035} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"China has great potential renewable energy resources, especially for the generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":87.79380035} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"of solar thermal power in the west, onshore wind in the north, and offshore wind in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":75.79380035} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"the east and southeast. Photovoltaic power generation could play an important role ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","63.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":63.79380035} {"page":151,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"101","dir":"ltr","width":"11.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.43","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.43249511,"y":623.65332031} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"throughout all parts of China. The expansion of hydropower generation is currently ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"also seen as a major strategy, but the potential for small hydro systems is rather low. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"China will face further large increases in energy demand in all sectors of the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"system. Chinese economic prosperity has mainly been underpinned by coal, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"provides over two-thirds of China’s primary energy supply today (IEA WEO ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.65","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.65029907,"y":549.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.65","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.65029907,"y":549.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"The increase in electricity use due to higher electrification rates will be a major fac","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12728881,"y":537.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"tor in the successful expansion of renewable energy in the industry, building, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"transport sectors. In China, nearly all households are connected to the electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"grid. However, according to WEO 2014, about 450 million Chinese still relied on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"the traditional use of biomass for cooking in 2012. China has pledged to reduce CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","487.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":487.65979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"emissions before 2030, and already has some ambitious political targets for renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15179443,"y":477.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"able energy deployment.","dir":"ltr","width":"98.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":465.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"5.2.10","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","421.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":421.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific","dir":"ltr","width":"69.85","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","421.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":421.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific consists of Japan, New Zealand, the peninsula of South Korea, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"the continent of Australia. The region is dominated by the high energy demand in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"Japan, which has rather limited renewable energy resources. The lack of physical ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"grid connections prevents power transmission between these countries. Therefore, it ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"is a huge effort to supply the large Japanese nation with renewable energy and to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"stabilize the variable wind power without tapping the large solar potential in other ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"countries, such as Australia. Here, hydrogen and synfuels will not only be used for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"the long-term storage of renewable power, but also as an option for balancing the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy supply across borders. The early market introduction of fuel-cell ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"cars in Japan may support such a strategy. Following the accident at Fukushima and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"the implementation of feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity, the expansion rates ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"for renewable energies, in particular PV, have risen sharply.","dir":"ltr","width":"237.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","217.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":217.1598053} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"Key Assumptions for Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"159.07","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","217.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":217.1598053} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"5.3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","191.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":191.1558075} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"Population Growth","dir":"ltr","width":"94.07","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","191.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":191.1558075} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"Population growth is an important driver of energy demand, directly and through its ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.1598053} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"impact on economic growth and development. The assumptions made in this study ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.1598053} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"up to 2050 are based on United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.1598053} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","139.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":139.1598053} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"tions for population growth (UNDP ","dir":"ltr","width":"147.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","201.08","127.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.07829284,"y":127.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":" (medium variant)). Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"105.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","221.08","127.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.07829284,"y":127.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.39","127.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.38830566,"y":127.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":" shows that ","dir":"ltr","width":"48.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.89","127.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.88830566,"y":127.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"according to the UNDP, the world’s population is expected to grow by 0.8% per ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"year on average over the period 2015–2050. The global population will increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":103.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"from 7.4 billion people in 2015 to nearly 9.8 billion by 2050. The rate of population ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"growth will slow over this period, from 1.1% per year during 2015–2020 to 0.6% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"per year during 2040–2050. From a regional perspective, Africa’s population growth ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","67.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":67.15979766} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":152,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"102","dir":"ltr","width":"12.17","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"will continue to be the most rapid (on average 2.2%/year), followed by the Middle ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","394.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":394.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"East (1.3%/year). In contrast, in China and OECD Pacific, a population decline of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","382.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":382.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"about 0.1%/year. is expected. The populations in OECD Europe and OECD North ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","370.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":370.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"America are expected to increase slowly through to 2050. The proportion of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","358.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":358.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"population living in today’s non-OECD countries will increase from its current 81% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","346.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":346.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"to 85% in 2050. China’s contribution to the world population will drop from 19% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","334.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":334.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"today to 15% in 2050. Africa will remain the region with the highest population ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","322.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":322.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"growth, leading to a share of 26% of world population in 2050. Satisfying the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","310.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":310.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"needs of a growing population in the developing regions of the world in an environ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","298.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":298.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","298.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2163086,"y":298.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"mentally friendly manner is the fundamental challenge in achieving a sustainable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","286.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":286.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"global energy supply.","dir":"ltr","width":"85.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","274.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":274.7538147} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"5.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","230.75"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":230.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"GDP Development","dir":"ltr","width":"92.13","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","230.75"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":230.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"Economic growth is a key driver of energy demand. Since 1971, each 1% increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","202.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":202.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"in the global GDP has been accompanied by a 0.6% increase in primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","190.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":190.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"consumption. Therefore, the decoupling of energy demand and GDP growth is a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","178.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":178.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"prerequisite for the rapid decarbonisation of the global energy industry. In this ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","166.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":166.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"study, the economic growth in the model regions is measured in GDP, expressed in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","154.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":154.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. Purchasing power parities ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","142.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":142.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"compare the costs in different currencies of fixed baskets of traded and non-traded ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","130.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":130.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"goods and services. GDP PPP is a widely used measure of living standards and is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","118.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":118.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"independent of currency exchange rates, which might not reflect a currency’s true ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","106.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":106.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"value (purchasing power) within a country. Therefore, GDP PPP is an important ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","94.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":94.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"basis of comparison when analysing the main drivers of energy demand or when ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","82.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":82.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"comparing the energy intensities of countries.","dir":"ltr","width":"182.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","70.75"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":70.75379943} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"Population growth projections (in millions)","dir":"ltr","width":"147.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.35","598.17"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.34629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"Million capita","dir":"ltr","width":"47.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69293931000042,"y":573.91884048} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","140.40","573.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.4009318600004,"y":573.91884048} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","163.07","573.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.07044175000044,"y":573.91884048} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","185.74","573.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.73993638000042,"y":573.91884048} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","208.41","573.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":208.40943101000045,"y":573.91884048} {"page":153,"change":"none","str":"2035","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","231.08","573.92"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.07894090000042,"y":573.91884048} 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Therefore, all the data on ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"economic development in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016 (WEO ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"2016a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","346.79","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.79129028,"y":561.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","371.23","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":371.23129272,"y":561.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","377.18","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.1783142,"y":561.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":561.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"refer to purchasing-power-adjusted GDP in international US$ (2015).  However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"because WEO 2016 only covers the time period up to 2040, projections for 2040–","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"2050 in the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios are based on German Aerospace ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"Center (DLR) estimates, which are mainly used to extrapolate the GDP trends in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"world regions used in our modelling.","dir":"ltr","width":"147.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"GDP growth in all regions is expected to slow gradually over the coming decades ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"(Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.17","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.16829681,"y":477.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"). It is assumed that world GDP will grow on average by 3.2% per year ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.67","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.66829681,"y":477.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"over the period 2015–2050. China, India, and Africa are expected to grow faster ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"than other regions, followed by the Middle East, Africa, other non-OECD Asia, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"Latin America. The growth of the Chinese economy will slow as it becomes more ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"mature, but it will nonetheless become the economically strongest region in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"world in PPP terms by 2020. The GDP in OECD Europe and OECD Pacific is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"assumed to grow by 1.3–1.5% per year over the projection period, while economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"growth in OECD North America is expected to be slightly higher (2.1%). The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"OECD’s share of global PPP-","dir":"ltr","width":"117.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"adjusted GDP will decrease from 45% in 2015 to 28% ","dir":"ltr","width":"216.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.91","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.90829467,"y":381.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"32.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"33.56","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","328.50"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85820007,"y":328.5031128} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"GDP development projections based on average annual growth rates for 2015–2040 ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.32","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","93.15","328.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.15370178,"y":328.5031128} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"from IEA (WEO ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","318.51"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":318.5071106} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"2016a","dir":"ltr","width":"20.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","113.10","318.51"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.10320281,"y":318.5071106} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","133.88","318.51"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":133.87719726,"y":318.5071106} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","138.13","318.51"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":138.12719726,"y":318.5071106} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":") and on our own extrapolations","dir":"ltr","width":"108.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","142.38","318.51"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.37719726,"y":318.5071106} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"Billion 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{"page":154,"change":"none","str":"346,236","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","317.84","85.19"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":317.8384339699996,"y":85.19457348999994} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"201%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","350.21","85.19"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":350.2064454499996,"y":85.19457348999994} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.68"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.862451309999564,"y":623.67808637} {"page":154,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.68"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.61245130999957,"y":623.67808637} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"104","dir":"ltr","width":"12.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"5.3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"Technology Cost Projections","dir":"ltr","width":"140.78","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"The parameterization of the models requires many assumptions about the develop","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":567.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"ment of the particular characteristics of technologies, such as specific investment ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"and fuel costs. Therefore, because long-term projections are highly uncertain, we ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"must define plausible and transparent assumptions based on background informa","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","531.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":531.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"tion and up-to-date statistical and technical information.","dir":"ltr","width":"224.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"The speed of an energy system transition also depends on overcoming economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","507.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"barriers. These largely relate to the relationships between the costs of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"technologies and their fossil and nuclear counterparts. For our scenarios, the projec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","483.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":483.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"tion of these costs is vital in making valid comparisons of energy systems. However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"there have been significant limitations to these projections in the past in relation to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"investment and fuel costs.","dir":"ltr","width":"103.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"In addition, efficiency measures also generate costs which are usually difficult to ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","435.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":435.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"determine depending on technical, structural and economic boundary conditions. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"the context of this study, we have therefore assumed uniform average costs of 3 ct ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"per avoided kWh of electricity consumption in our cost accounting.","dir":"ltr","width":"269.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"During the last decade, fossil fuel prices have seen huge fluctuations. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"307.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","387.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":387.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","373.01","387.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.00830078,"y":387.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"shows oil prices since 1997. After extremely high oil prices in 2012, we are cur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":375.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","375.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":375.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"rently in a low-price phase. Gas prices saw similar development (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":363.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.68","363.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.6783142,"y":363.79382324} {"page":155,"change":"none","str":"). 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(","dir":"ltr","width":"28.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.83","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.82830047,"y":585.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":") showed that price projections have varied significantly over time. ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","102.83","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.82830047,"y":585.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Whereas the IEA’s oil production projections seem comparatively accurate, oil price ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"projections showed errors of 40–60%, even when made for only 10  years ahead. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Between 2007 and 2017, the IEA price projections for 2030 varied from $70 to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"$140 per barrel, providing significant uncertainty regarding future costs in the sce","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":537.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"narios. Despite this limitation, the IEA provides a comprehensive set of price ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"projections. Therefore, we based our scenario assumptions on these projections, as ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"described below.","dir":"ltr","width":"66.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"However, because most renewable energy technologies provide energy without ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"fuel costs, the projections of investment costs become more important than fuel cost ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"projections, and this limits the impact of errors in the fuel price projections. It is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"only for biomass that the cost of feedstock remains a crucial economic factor for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"renewables. Today, these costs range from negative costs for waste wood (based on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"credit for the waste disposal costs avoided), through inexpensive residual materials, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"to comparatively expensive energy crops. Because bioenergy holds significant mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":417.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"ket shares in all sectors in many regions, a detailed assessment of future price pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16729736,"y":405.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"jections is provided below.","dir":"ltr","width":"106.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Investment cost projections also pose challenges for scenario development. ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Available short-term projections of investment costs depend largely on the data ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"available for existing and planned projects. Learning curves are most commonly ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"used to assess the future development of investment costs as a function of their ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"future installations and markets (McDonald and Schrattenholzer ","dir":"ltr","width":"259.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"2001","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.58","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.5783081,"y":333.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"; Rubin et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.58","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.5783081,"y":333.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"). Therefore, the reliability of cost projections largely depends on the uncer","dir":"ltr","width":"308.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":321.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"tainty of future markets and the availability of historical data.","dir":"ltr","width":"244.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Fossil technologies provide a large cost data set featuring well-established mar","dir":"ltr","width":"316.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":297.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"kets and large annual installations. They are also mature technologies, where many ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":285.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"cost reduction potentials have already been exploited.","dir":"ltr","width":"214.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":273.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"For renewable technologies, the picture is more mixed. For example, hydro ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":261.15979003} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"power is, like fossil fuels, well established and provides reliable data on investment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":249.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"costs. Other technologies, such as PV and wind, are currently experiencing tremen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":237.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20828247,"y":237.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"dous developments in installation and cost reduction. Solar PV and wind are the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":225.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"focus of cost monitoring, and considerable data are already available on existing ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":213.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"projects. However, their future markets are not easily predicted, as can be seen from ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":201.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"the evolution of IEA market projections over recent years in the World Energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":189.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Outlook series (compare for example IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"2007","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","230.22","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.21829223,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.22","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.21829223,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.22","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.21829223,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.22","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.21829223,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","282.22","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.21829223,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"). For PV and wind, ","dir":"ltr","width":"86.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","302.22","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.21829223,"y":177.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"small differences in cost assumptions will lead to large deviations in the overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":165.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"costs, and cost assumptions must be made with special care. Furthermore, many ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":153.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"technologies feature only comparably small markets, such as geothermal, modern ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":141.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"bioenergy applications, and CSP, for which costs are still high and for which future ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":129.15977478} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"markets are insecure. The cost reduction potential is correspondingly high for these ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":117.1597824} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"technologies. This is also true for technologies that might become important in a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":105.1597824} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"transformed energy system but are not yet widely available. Hydrogen production, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":93.1597824} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"ocean power, and synthetic fuels might deliver important technology options in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":81.1597824} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":156,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"106","dir":"ltr","width":"12.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"long term after 2040, but their cost reduction potential cannot be assessed with any ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"certainty today.","dir":"ltr","width":"61.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"Thus, cost assumptions are a crucial factor in evaluating scenarios. Because costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"are an external input into the model and are not internally calculated, we assume the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"same progressive cost developments for all scenarios. In the next sections, we pres","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":549.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"ent a detailed overview of our assumptions for power and renewable heat technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":537.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"gies, including the investment and fuel costs, and the potential CO","dir":"ltr","width":"277.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","331.28","523.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.2815857,"y":523.65979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":" costs in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.28","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.2815857,"y":525.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"39.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":513.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"5.3.3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86159133,"y":477.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"Power and CHP Technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"125.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","477.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36158752,"y":477.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"The focus of cost calculations in our scenario modelling is the power sector. We ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":453.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"compared the specific investment costs estimated in previous studies (Teske et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":441.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":429.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.86158752,"y":429.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.34","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.34159088,"y":429.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"), which were based on a variety of studies, including the European ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.34","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.34159088,"y":429.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"Commission-funded NEEDS project (NEEDS ","dir":"ltr","width":"184.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":417.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2009","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.17","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.17158508,"y":417.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"), projections from the European ","dir":"ltr","width":"129.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","258.17","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.17160034,"y":417.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"Renewable Energy Council (Zervos et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"167.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":405.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2010","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","221.09","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.09458923,"y":405.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"), investment cost projections by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"146.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","241.09","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":241.09458923,"y":405.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"IEA (","dir":"ltr","width":"23.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":393.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.40","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.40158843,"y":393.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"), and current cost assumptions by IRENA and IEA (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.40","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.40158843,"y":393.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2016b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","338.34","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.34158325,"y":393.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"). We ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","363.34","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":363.34158325,"y":393.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"found that investment costs generally converged, except for PV. Therefore, for con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":381.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21859741,"y":381.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"sistency reasons, the investment costs and operation and maintenance costs for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":369.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"power sector are based primarily on the investment costs within WEO 2016 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":357.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2016b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":345.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":") up to 2040, including their regional disaggregation. We extended the projec","dir":"ltr","width":"303.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.86158752,"y":345.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1895752,"y":345.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"tions until 2050 based on the trends in the preceding decade.","dir":"ltr","width":"241.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":333.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"For renewable power production, we used investment costs from the 450  ppm ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86158752,"y":321.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"scenario from IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"81.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":309.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2016b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","135.34","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.34158325,"y":309.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":". For technologies not distinguished in the IEA report ","dir":"ltr","width":"229.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","159.93","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.93159484,"y":309.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"(such as geothermal CHP), we used cost assumptions based on our own research, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":297.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"from the Energy [R]evolution Scenario 2015 (Teske et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"226.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":285.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.97","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.96658325,"y":285.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"). As the cost assump","dir":"ltr","width":"82.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","299.97","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.96658325,"y":285.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1315918,"y":285.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"tions for PV systems by the IEA do not reflect recent cost degressions, we based our ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":273.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"assumptions on a more recent analysis by Steurer et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"220.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":261.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","274.81","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":274.80560302,"y":261.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"), which projects lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"92.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","294.81","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":294.80560302,"y":261.15979003} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"investment costs for PV in 2050 than does the IEA. The costs for onshore and off","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":249.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1725769,"y":249.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"shore wind in Europe were adapted from the same source, in order to reflect more ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":237.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"recent data. The cost assumptions for hydrogen production come from our own ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":225.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"analysis in the PlanDelyKaD project (Michalski et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"216.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":213.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","270.14","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.1435852,"y":213.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"). Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","290.14","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.1435852,"y":213.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"5.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","322.75","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.75158691,"y":213.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":" summarizes ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.25","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.25158691,"y":213.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"the cost trends for power technologies derived from the assumptions discussed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":201.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"above for OECD Europe. It is important to note that the cost reductions are, in real","dir":"ltr","width":"328.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":189.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.24","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.24157714,"y":189.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"ity, not a function of time, but of cumulative capacity (production of units), so ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":177.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"dynamic market development is required to achieve a significant reduction in spe","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":165.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14160156,"y":165.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"cific investment costs. Therefore, we might underestimate the costs of renewables in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":153.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"the reference (5.0  °C) scenario compared with the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":141.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"However, our approach is conservative when we compare the reference scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":129.15977478} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"with the 2.0 °C or 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cost assumptions for the other nine regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":117.1597824} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"are in the same range, but differ slightly for different renewable energy technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":105.1597824} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2106018,"y":105.1597824} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"gies. Fossil fuel power plants have a limited potential for cost reductions because ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":93.1597824} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"they are at an advanced stage of technology and market development. Gas and oil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159133,"y":81.1597824} {"page":157,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"107","dir":"ltr","width":"12.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.99731445,"y":623.65332031} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"plants are relatively cheap, at around $670/kW and $822/kW, respectively. CHP ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"applications and coal plants are more expensive, ranging between $2000/kW and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"$2500/kW. The IEA sees some cost reduction potential for expensive nuclear plants, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"tending towards $4500/kW by 2050, whereas gas might even increase in cost.","dir":"ltr","width":"310.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"In contrast, several renewable technologies have seen considerable cost reduc","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":549.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"tions over the last decade. This is expected to continue if renewables are deployed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"extensively. Fuel cells are expected to outpace other CHP technologies, with a cost ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"reduction potential of more than 75% (from currently high costs). Hydro power and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"biomass remain stable in terms of costs. Tremendous cost reductions are still ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"expected for solar energy and offshore wind, even though they have experienced ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"significant reductions already. Although CSP might deliver dispatchable power at ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"half its current cost in 2050, variable PV costs could drop to 35% of today’s costs. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"Offshore wind could see cost reductions of over 30%, whereas the cost reduction ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"potential for onshore wind seems to have been exploited already to a large extent ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} 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assumptions for power generation plants (in $2015/kW) in the scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","91.75","389.43"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.751297,"y":389.43301391} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"until 2050","dir":"ltr","width":"34.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","379.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":379.43701171} {"page":158,"change":"none","str":"Investment costs power generation plants in Europe","dir":"ltr","width":"175.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","365.18"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69315285000169,"y":365.17749039} 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{"page":159,"change":"none","str":"ral gas, with a significant share after 2030. Hydrogen is assumed to be produced by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"electrolysis. With electrolysers just emerging on larger scale on the markets, they have ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"considerable cost reduction potential. Based on the Plan-DelyKaD studies (Michalski ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"19.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","75.17","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":75.16829681,"y":549.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"), we assume that costs could decrease to $570/kW in the long term.","dir":"ltr","width":"266.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.81","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.8082962,"y":549.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"5.3.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Heating Technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"90.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","513.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Assessing the costs in the heating sector is even more ambitious than in the power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"sector. Costs for new installations differ significantly between regions and are inter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":477.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"linked with construction costs and industry processes, which are not addressed in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"this study. Moreover, no data are available to allow the comprehensive calculation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"of the costs for existing heating appliances in all regions. Therefore, we concentrate ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"on the additional costs resulting from new renewable applications in the heating ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"25.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Our cost assumptions are based on a previous survey of renewable heating tech","dir":"ltr","width":"316.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":405.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"nologies in Europe, which focused on solar collectors, geothermal, heat pumps, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"biomass applications. Biomass and simple heating systems in the residential sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"are already mature. However, more-sophisticated technologies, which can provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"higher shares of heat demand from renewable sources, are still under development ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"and rather expensive. Market barriers will slow the further implementation and cost ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"reduction of renewable heating systems, especially for heating networks. ","dir":"ltr","width":"339.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Nevertheless, significant learning rates can be expected if renewable heating is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"increasingly implemented, as projected the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"288.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"5.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.63","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.62830352,"y":297.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":" presents the investment cost assumptions for heating technologies for ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.13","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.12830352,"y":297.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe, disaggregated by sector. Geothermal heating displays the same high ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"costs in all sectors. In Europe, deep geothermal applications are being developed for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.5","dir":"ltr","width":"34.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","232.39"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":232.38920593} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Specific investment cost assumptions (in $2015) for heating technologies in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.32","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","94.49","232.39"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.4882965,"y":232.38920593} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"scenarios until 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{"page":159,"change":"none","str":"$/kW","dir":"ltr","width":"18.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","242.89","124.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.88567722999974,"y":124.81669812999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"850","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","269.09","124.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.09119785999974,"y":124.81669812999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"820","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","293.50","124.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.5031851699997,"y":124.81669812999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"730","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","317.92","124.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.9151724699997,"y":124.81669812999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"650","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","342.33","124.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.32719028999975,"y":124.81669812999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"550","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","366.74","124.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.7391775999997,"y":124.81669812999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"In heat grids","dir":"ltr","width":"42.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","155.45","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.44617832999973,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"$/kW","dir":"ltr","width":"18.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","242.89","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.88567722999974,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"970","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","269.09","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.09119785999974,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"970","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","293.50","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.5031851699997,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"970","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","317.92","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.9151724699997,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"970","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","342.33","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.32715976999975,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"970","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","366.74","112.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.7391775999997,"y":112.98469738999994} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"Residential","dir":"ltr","width":"38.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","155.45","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.44617832999973,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"$/kW","dir":"ltr","width":"18.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","242.89","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.88567722999974,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"1060","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","269.09","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.09116733999974,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"1010","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","293.50","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.5031851699997,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"910","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","317.92","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.9151724699997,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"800","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","342.33","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.32715976999975,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"680","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","366.74","101.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.7391775999997,"y":101.15269665999993} {"page":159,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.9988516699997,"y":623.65319257} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"109","dir":"ltr","width":"12.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.95","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.95309448,"y":623.65332031} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"heating purposes at investment costs ranging from €500/kW","dir":"ltr","width":"244.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"th","dir":"ltr","width":"4.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","298.42","595.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":298.41989135,"y":595.65979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":" (shallow) to €3000/","dir":"ltr","width":"82.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","303.09","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.08789062,"y":597.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"kW","dir":"ltr","width":"14.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789108,"y":585.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"th","dir":"ltr","width":"4.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","68.30","583.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":68.29810333,"y":583.65979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":" (deep), with the costs strongly dependent on the drilling depth. The cost reduc","dir":"ltr","width":"309.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.97","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":72.9661026,"y":585.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1401062,"y":585.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"tion potential is assumed to be around 30% by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"209.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":573.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Heat pumps typically provide hot water or space heat for heating systems with ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85610198,"y":561.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"relatively low supply temperatures, or they supplement other heating technologies. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":549.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, they are currently mainly used for small-scale residential applications. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":537.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Costs currently cover a large band-width and are expected to decrease by only 20% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":525.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"to $1450/kW by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"90.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":513.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"For biomass and solar collectors, we assume significant differences between the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85610198,"y":501.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"sectors. There is a broad portfolio of modern technologies for heat production from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":489.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"biomass, ranging from small-scale single-room stoves to heating or CHP plants on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":477.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"an MW scale. Investment costs show similar variations: simple log-wood stoves can ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":465.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"be obtained from $100/kW, but more sophisticated automated heating systems that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":453.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"cover the whole heat demand of a building are significantly more expensive. Log-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":441.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"wood or pellet boilers range from $500 to 1300/kW. Large biomass heating systems ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":429.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"are assumed to reach their cheapest costs in 2050 at around $480/kW for industry. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":417.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"For all sectors, we assume a cost reduction of 20% by 2050. In contrast, solar col","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":405.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14608764,"y":405.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"lectors for households are comparatively simple and will become cheap at $680/kW ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":393.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"by 2050. The costs of simple solar collectors for swimming pools might have been ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":381.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"optimized already, whereas their integration in large systems is neither technologi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":369.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19610595,"y":369.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"cally nor economically mature. For larger applications, especially in heat grid sys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":357.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16610717,"y":357.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"tems, the collectors are large and more sophisticated. Because there is not yet a mass ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":345.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"market for such grid-connected solar systems, we assume there will be a cost reduc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":333.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16610717,"y":333.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"tion potential until 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"98.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85609817,"y":321.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"5.3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","277.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":277.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Fuel Cost Projections","dir":"ltr","width":"107.35","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","277.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":277.15979003} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"5.3.4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","253.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":253.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Fossil Fuels","dir":"ltr","width":"49.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","253.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":253.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Although fossil fuel price projections have seen considerable variations, as described ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","229.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":229.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"above, we based our fuel price assumptions up to 2040 on the WEO 2017 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","217.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":217.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"). Beyond 2040, we extrapolated from the price developments between 2035 ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","205.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"and 2040. Even though these price projections are highly speculative, they provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"a set of prices consistent to our investment assumptions. Fuel prices for nuclear ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"energy are based on the values in the Energy [R]evolution report 2015 (Teske et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"), corrected by the cumulative inflation rate for the Eurozone of 1.82% between ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","157.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":157.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"2012 and 2015 (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"89.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"5.6","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.60","145.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.59829711,"y":145.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.10","145.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.09829711,"y":145.1598053} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":160,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"110","dir":"ltr","width":"11.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"5.3.4.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","224.56"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":224.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"Biomass Prices","dir":"ltr","width":"64.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","224.56"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":224.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"Biomass prices depend on the quality of the biomass (residues or energy crops) and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","200.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":200.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"the regional supply and demand. The variability is large. Lamers et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"282.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","188.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":188.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","336.56","188.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.56329345,"y":188.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":") found ","dir":"ltr","width":"31.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","356.56","188.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.56329345,"y":188.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"a price range of €4–4.8/GJ for forest residues in Europe in 2020, whereas agricul","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","176.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":176.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","176.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":176.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"tural products might cost €8.5–12/GJ.  Lamers et  al. modelled a range for wood ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","164.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":164.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"pellets from €6/GJ in Malaysia to 8.8€/GJ in Brazil. IRENA modelled a cost supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","152.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":152.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"curve on a global level for 2030 (see Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"164.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","140.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":140.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.18","140.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.1782837,"y":140.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"), ranging from $3/GJ for a potential of ","dir":"ltr","width":"157.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","230.68","140.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.6782837,"y":140.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"35 EJ/year. up to $8–10/GJ for a potential up to 90–100 EJ/year (IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","128.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":128.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.30","128.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.29730224,"y":128.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":") (and ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.30","128.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.29730224,"y":128.55830383} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"up to $17/GJ for an potential extending to 147 EJ).","dir":"ltr","width":"203.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","116.56"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":116.5582962} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.6","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"Development projections for fossil fuel prices in $2015 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"209.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.35","598.17"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.34629821,"y":598.1743164} 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{"page":161,"change":"none","str":"2.8","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","262.10","287.63"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.0953934200003,"y":287.6259053200005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"3.0","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","295.49","287.63"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.4918778000003,"y":287.6259053200005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"3.0","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","328.89","287.63"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.8883926900003,"y":287.6259053200005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"2.8","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","362.28","287.63"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.2848770700003,"y":287.6259053200005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"26.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.35","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.352870230000306,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"All","dir":"ltr","width":"10.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","99.66","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.66037298000032,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"$/GJ","dir":"ltr","width":"16.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","192.07","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.07236792000032,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","224.44","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.44036413000032,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","262.09","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.0868790200003,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","295.48","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.4833633900003,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","328.88","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.8798782900003,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","362.28","275.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.2763626600003,"y":275.7939045900005} {"page":161,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99892736000027,"y":623.6532795900006} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"111","dir":"ltr","width":"11.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.80","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.7987976,"y":623.65332031} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"IRENA projected regional supply costs for liquid and other biomass sources in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","351.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":351.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"2030 based on a global biomass use of around 108 EJ, using current primary bio","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","339.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":339.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"mass prices as a proxy (see Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":327.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"5.7","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","184.56","327.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.55830383,"y":327.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"). Liquid biofuels demand higher prices because ","dir":"ltr","width":"190.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.06","327.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.05830383,"y":327.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"of their production and transformation processes; ‘other biomass’ includes primary ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"biomass, such as fuel wood, energy crops, and residues.","dir":"ltr","width":"223.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"The prices cited above hold true for modern biomass applications. Traditional ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","291.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":291.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"biomass use is still often based on firewood or other biomass, which is acquired ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":279.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"without a price (and with the labour cost not considered). No price data are yet ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"available for a considerable range of residues. Therefore, the average primary bio","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","255.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21328735,"y":255.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"mass costs across the complete energy system in many regions are lower than the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"available market prices for biomass commodities. Consequently, today’s market ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"prices represent the upper limit of today’s biomass costs.","dir":"ltr","width":"226.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, for our scenarios, we assumed a lower average biomass price in all ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","207.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":207.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"regions, starting from the lower end of the cost supply curve at around $7.50/GJ for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"OECD regions, with predominantly modern applications. For Africa, Latin America, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"and Asia, including Russia, which have abundant biomass residue potential, current ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"prices were assumed to be $3/GJ. For the remaining regions (the Middle East, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe), we assumed $5/GJ.","dir":"ltr","width":"147.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":147.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"The prices for primary biomass will increase proportionately to the IRENA ref","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","135.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":135.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","135.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":135.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"erence price for ‘other biomass’ by 2030, following the increasing uptake of modern ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.15"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":123.149292} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","390.98"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83179855,"y":390.97918701} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 (IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"200.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.12","390.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.12329864,"y":390.97918701} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","286.60","390.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.60430908,"y":390.97918701} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","303.60","390.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.60430908,"y":390.97918701} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8572998,"y":623.6496582} {"page":162,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6072998,"y":623.6496582} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"112","dir":"ltr","width":"11.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"biomass technologies and increasing trade, representing a further biomass potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":449.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"uptake along the supply curve. For the period until 2050, we consider that biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":437.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"prices will be stable. The prices calculated by IRENA are valid for a demand of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","425.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":425.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"108 EJ/year. The biomass demand considered in this study never exceeds a total of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","413.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":413.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"100 EJ/year. However, the international trade in biomass may heavily influence bio","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","401.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":401.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","401.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":401.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"mass prices in the future, representing a significant source of uncertainty in our ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","389.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":389.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"assumptions.","dir":"ltr","width":"51.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","377.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":377.08670043} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"5.3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","333.09"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":333.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"16.67","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","333.09"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":333.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"7.20","transform":["7.20","0.00","0.00","7.20","106.53","331.29"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":106.52600097,"y":331.2868042} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" Costs","dir":"ltr","width":"29.68","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","110.13","333.09"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":110.12599945,"y":333.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"The WEO 2017 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"92.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","305.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":305.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","146.75","305.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.74630737,"y":305.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":") considers the future price of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"141.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","166.75","305.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":166.74630737,"y":305.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","308.46","303.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":308.4590149,"y":303.586792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" in the power and ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.46","305.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.4590149,"y":305.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"industry sectors. There is considerable variation between the current policy sce","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","293.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":293.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","293.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.184021,"y":293.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"nario, the new policy scenario, and the 450 ppm scenario, not only in value, but also ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","281.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":281.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"in regional range. Various studies have indicated a close relationship between decar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","269.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":269.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","269.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17901611,"y":269.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"bonisation and the implicit or explicit CO","dir":"ltr","width":"171.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","257.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85900878,"y":257.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","225.73","255.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.73039245,"y":255.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" price (regardless of the most efficient ","dir":"ltr","width":"160.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.73","257.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.73039245,"y":257.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"implementation measure). On the one hand, the carbon price is a precondition for a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","245.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":245.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"decarbonisation of the energy sector (Lucena et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"211.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","233.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":233.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","265.46","233.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":265.45941162,"y":233.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"), but on the other hand, ","dir":"ltr","width":"103.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","285.46","233.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":285.45941162,"y":233.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"decarbonisation may limit the costs of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"166.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","221.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86040115,"y":221.086792} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","220.42","219.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.4152069,"y":219.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" emissions if an efficient pricing measure ","dir":"ltr","width":"164.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","223.42","221.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":223.4152069,"y":221.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"is in place (Jacobson et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"105.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","209.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85520935,"y":209.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","159.11","209.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.11221313,"y":209.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"). Because the scenarios in this study rely heavily on ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","179.11","209.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":179.11221313,"y":209.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"effective reductions in CO","dir":"ltr","width":"105.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","197.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85520935,"y":197.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","159.37","195.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.36779785,"y":195.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" emissions, we used the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"111.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.37","197.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.36779785,"y":197.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","273.50","195.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.50131225,"y":195.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" prices of the 450 ppm sce","dir":"ltr","width":"105.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.50","197.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.50131225,"y":197.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","197.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":197.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"nario in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. In the reference case, we deviated from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","185.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86130905,"y":185.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"WEO 2017, which applies rather low CO","dir":"ltr","width":"165.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","173.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86130905,"y":173.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","219.47","171.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.47009277,"y":171.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" emission costs. Instead, we applied CO","dir":"ltr","width":"160.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","222.47","173.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.47009277,"y":173.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","171.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":171.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"costs equivalent to the cost of the resulting climate damage. Based on existing stud","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","161.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":161.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","161.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18579101,"y":161.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"ies of fossil-energy-induced damage (Anthoff and Tol ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","149.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":149.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.18","149.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.17779541,"y":149.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"; Stern et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","293.18","149.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.17779541,"y":149.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2006","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","345.24","149.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.24481201,"y":149.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"), we ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.24","149.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.24481201,"y":149.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"assumed that $78/t of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"100.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","137.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":137.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","154.76","135.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.76460266,"y":135.58680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" is a plausible cost estimate in the wide range of estimates ","dir":"ltr","width":"229.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","157.76","137.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":157.76460266,"y":137.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"of the social costs of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"98.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","125.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.854599,"y":125.08680725} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","152.46","123.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.45700073,"y":123.58679962} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":" emissions (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"72.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","155.46","125.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.45700073,"y":125.08679962} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"5.8","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","227.71","125.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.70700073,"y":125.08679962} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","240.21","125.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.20700073,"y":125.08679962} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"Table 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{"page":163,"change":"none","str":"Liquid biofuel reference price","dir":"ltr","width":"101.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","132.28","583.42"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.27629083999997,"y":583.4171925100001} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"Other biomass reference price","dir":"ltr","width":"102.20","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","259.86","583.42"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.86129755,"y":583.4171925100001} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"US $/GJ","dir":"ltr","width":"29.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","132.28","571.91"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.27629083999997,"y":571.9082203300001} {"page":163,"change":"none","str":"US 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{"page":164,"change":"none","str":"69.5","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","301.27","535.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":301.26557147000017,"y":535.5916796099998} {"page":164,"change":"none","str":"124","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","330.73","535.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.72657000000015,"y":535.5916796099998} {"page":164,"change":"none","str":"177.5","dir":"ltr","width":"19.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","360.19","535.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.18756854000014,"y":535.5916796099998} {"page":164,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.856067530000175,"y":623.6516771699999} {"page":164,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60606372000018,"y":623.6516771699999} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"114","dir":"ltr","width":"11.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"both alternative scenarios start deviating significantly from the reference case only ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"after 2025. 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This is the case for the IEA estimates of demand devel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":549.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"opment in some regions and sectors, and it is partly true for investments in fossil-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"fuel-","dir":"ltr","width":"18.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"based heat and power generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"133.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.74","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":72.7382965,"y":525.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"5.4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","481.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":481.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency and Energy Intensities","dir":"ltr","width":"165.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","481.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":481.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"It is obvious that a major increase in energy efficiency is the backbone of each ambi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.24","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23730468,"y":453.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"tious transition scenario, because energy efficiency significantly reduces the need ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"for energy conversion and infrastructure investment. The development of the future ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"global energy demand is determined by three key factors:","dir":"ltr","width":"229.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"Population growth, which affects the number of people consuming energy or ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"using energy services. Associated with this, increasing access to energy services ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","387.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"in developing countries and emerging economies is an additional influencing ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","375.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":375.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"factor, bearing in mind that this could mean power grid access or the implemen","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","363.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":363.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"tation of isolated, usually small-scale, local power systems.","dir":"ltr","width":"236.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","351.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":351.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":339.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"Economic development, which is commonly measured as GDP. In general, GDP ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","339.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":339.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"growth triggers an increase in energy demand, directly via additional industrial ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","327.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":327.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"activities and indirectly via an increase in private consumption arising from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","315.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":315.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"higher incomes associated with a prospering economy.","dir":"ltr","width":"218.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","303.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":303.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"Energy intensity, which is a measure of how much final energy is required in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","291.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":291.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"industrial sector to produce a unit of GDP. Efficiency measures help to reduce ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","279.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":279.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"energy intensity and can result in a decoupling of economic growth and final ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","267.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":267.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"energy consumption. In the ‘Residential and other’ sector, energy intensity refers ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","255.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":255.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"to the per capita demand for final energy (for electrical appliances and heat gen","dir":"ltr","width":"316.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","243.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":243.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","243.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13729858,"y":243.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"eration). Efficiency improvement is also a result of reduced conversion losses, in ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","231.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":231.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"particular those achieved by replacing thermal power generation with renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","219.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":219.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"technologies, which leads to a further reduction in the primary energy intensity.","dir":"ltr","width":"317.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","207.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":207.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"The reference scenario and both target scenarios are based on the same projec","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":189.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":189.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"tions of population and economic growth. Therefore, the scenarios represent the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15979003} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"specific, although widely accepted, development of future societies. However, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"future development of energy intensities differs between the reference and alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14630126,"y":153.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"tive scenarios, taking into account the different efficiency pathways and therefore ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"the successful implementation of measures to intensify required investments in effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":129.15977478} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"cient technologies or to change consumer behaviour.","dir":"ltr","width":"210.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"The assumptions made about the potential to further increase the economic and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"technical efficiency in all sectors are based on various external studies. However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"the lower benchmarks for the assumptions on efficiency potentials are derived from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"the Current Policies scenario of the IEA WEO 2017 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"232.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","286.69","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.69030761,"y":69.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"). The upper bench","dir":"ltr","width":"75.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.69","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.69030761,"y":69.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16229248,"y":69.1597824} {"page":165,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"115","dir":"ltr","width":"11.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.47","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.4664917,"y":623.65332031} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"marks for efficiency potentials per world region are taken from Graus et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"305.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.65","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.65130615,"y":597.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"), ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.65","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.65130615,"y":597.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Kermeli et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"61.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","115.17","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":115.17230224,"y":585.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"), and recently published low-energy-demand scenarios devel","dir":"ltr","width":"246.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","135.17","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.17230224,"y":585.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15231323,"y":585.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"oped by Grubler et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"93.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","147.17","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.16830444,"y":573.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.17","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.16830444,"y":573.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"5.4.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Industrial Electricity Demand","dir":"ltr","width":"128.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","537.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"‘Industrial electricity demand’ refers to many appliances of different sizes and pur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":513.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"poses. Large potentials for saving electricity have been identified in various studies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"in most branches of industry. This particularly applies to electric drives for com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":489.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"pressed air, pumps, and fans. The scenario model approach distinguishes between ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"electric appliances and power-to-heat devices for space and process heating. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"consumption of electricity per GDP varies widely between regions, depending on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"their industrial structures and efficiency standards. The trajectories for industrial ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"electricity demands are constrained by the abovementioned lower and upper bench","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":429.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"marks and aim for similar electricity uses per $GDP in the industrial sectors in all ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"regions by 2050. The resulting trajectories for OECD and non-OECD countries are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"62.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"5.9","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","116.14","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":116.13829803,"y":393.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":". The average global electricity demand for electric appliances in ","dir":"ltr","width":"259.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","128.64","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.63830566,"y":393.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"‘industry’ (without power-to-heat) will decrease from 55 kWh/$1000 GDP in 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"to 36 kWh/$1000 in 2050 in the reference case, but to 24 kWh/$1000 in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Scenario and 23 kWh/$1000 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. However, the increased electri","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19430541,"y":357.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"fication of industrial heat in both alternative scenarios almost cancels out the greater ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"efficiency increases in those two scenarios when compared with the reference case. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"The average power-to-heat share in industry will increase in this period from 6% to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"34% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 37% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the annual electricity demand for industrial electrical appliances will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"around 5% lower than in the 2.0  °C Scenario between 2020 and 2025, and up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"10% lower between 2025 and 2035. However, between 2035 and 2050, the electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":273.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"ity demand for electric appliances in the industry sector converges under the two ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"39.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.9","dir":"ltr","width":"34.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","214.32"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":214.3224945} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Assumed average development of specific (per $GDP) electricity use for electrical ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","93.14","214.32"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.13680267,"y":214.3224945} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"appliances in the ‘Industry’ sector","dir":"ltr","width":"115.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","204.33"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":204.3264923} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"kWh/$1000","dir":"ltr","width":"40.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69307497999993,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","130.98","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.98307587999992,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","154.65","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.64707734999993,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","178.31","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.31107880999994,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","201.98","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.97508027999993,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2035","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","225.64","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.63908173999994,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","249.30","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.30306794999993,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2045","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","272.97","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.96705416,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","296.63","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.63105562,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Change ","dir":"ltr","width":"30.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","320.30","190.06"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.2950570899999,"y":190.0629998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"2050/2015","dir":"ltr","width":"36.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","320.30","180.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.2950570899999,"y":180.06699759999998} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"Reference case","dir":"ltr","width":"51.20","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.67","167.42"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.66757371999993,"y":167.4190026} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"OECD regions","dir":"ltr","width":"50.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.67","155.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.66757371999993,"y":155.58700187} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"42.8","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","130.96","155.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.95757844999991,"y":155.58700187} {"page":166,"change":"none","str":"40.8","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","154.62","155.59"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.62156464999993,"y":155.58700187} 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{"page":167,"change":"none","str":"5.4.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Demand for Fuel to Produce Heat in the Industry Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"240.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Industrial heat is required for different purposes and at different temperatures. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Currently, industrial (process) heat is mainly produced by burning fossil fuels. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Biomass plays a minor role, except in heat use from the combustion of residues and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"biogenic waste. Some low- and medium-temperature heat is produced by co-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"generation plants with combined heat and power provisions. Power-to-heat makes ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"up only a small percentage of the industrial energy demand for heat. Regional dif","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21328735,"y":513.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"ferences in the nature of industry, especially in terms of the presence of energy-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"intensive heavy or manufacturing industries, strongly influence the amounts of ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"low-, medium-, and high-temperature heat that must be produced today and in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"future (because we assume that the regional industry structure will remain the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"same). Various technological improvements, process substitutions, and innovations ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"are technically possible and have been implemented to some extent already. An ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"important example is highly efficient waste heat recovery. Shorter investment cycles ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"and incentives to replace old technologies will help to reduce energy consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"as quickly as possible. It is obvious that incentives are essential to trigger rapid ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"innovation and the implementation of new technologies. Any political strategy for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"introducing such a pathway requires strong support from various industry stake","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":381.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"holders and regional or even global governance to overcome the economic and tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":369.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"nical obstacles and conflicting interests. Therefore, both alternative scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"assume that the conditions exist to allow rapid technological change. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"312.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"5.10","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","368.01","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":368.00830078,"y":345.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"provides the resulting final energy demands for heating per $GDP for OECD and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"non-OECD countries. The average global values will decrease from 680 MJ/$1000 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"GDP in 2015 to 366 MJ/$1000 in 2050 in the reference case, and to 185 MJ/$1000 in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario and 172 MJ/$1000 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. Compared with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, the 1.5 °C Scenario assumes a significantly more rapid reduction ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"in the industrial heat demand. Between 2020 and 2025, the annual energy demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"for heat will be up to 8% lower under the 1.5  °C Scenario than under the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, and up to 17% lower between 2025 and 2035. After 2035, the difference ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"will decrease again, and by 2050, it will be around 7%.","dir":"ltr","width":"220.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.10","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","204.07"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":204.0724945} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"Assumed average development in final energy use for heating in the industry sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.62","204.07"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.62180328,"y":204.0724945} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"(including power-to-heat) (per $GDP)","dir":"ltr","width":"129.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","194.08"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":194.0764923} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"MJ/$1000","dir":"ltr","width":"34.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","179.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69307497999993,"y":179.81699663999996} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","130.98","179.82"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.98307587999992,"y":179.81699663999996} 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{"page":167,"change":"none","str":"80%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","325.96","72.51"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":325.9645517099999,"y":72.51299577999998} {"page":167,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.9987619199999,"y":623.6531935400001} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"117","dir":"ltr","width":"11.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.79","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.7861023,"y":623.65332031} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"5.4.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"Electricity Demand in the ‘Residential and Other’ Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"243.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"The electricity demand in the ‘Residential and other’ sector includes electricity use ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"in households, for commercial purposes, and in the service and trade sectors, fish","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":561.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"ery, and agriculture. 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It is assumed that this share will increase signifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17730712,"y":513.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"cantly to 30% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 37% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"These increases are attributed to sector coupling, the provision of storage for vari","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":489.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"able renewable energy in the heat sector, and the provision of high-temperature heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"without fuel combustion. 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The average global electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":417.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"ity use for appliances in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, which is related to per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"capita consumption, will increase in the reference scenario from 1350 kWh/capita ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"in 2015 to 2370 kWh/capita in 2050, whereas it will increase to only 1490 kWh/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"capita in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 1460  kWh/capita in the 1.5  °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"5.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.93","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.92829895,"y":357.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":" shows the changes in electricity use for appliances in OECD and non-","dir":"ltr","width":"289.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.43","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.42829895,"y":357.15979003} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"OECD countries (without electricity for heating). 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{"page":168,"change":"none","str":"806","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","154.49","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.49404694999993,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"842","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","178.16","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.15804841999991,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"928","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","201.82","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.82204987999992,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"1001","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","225.49","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.48605134999994,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"1086","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","249.15","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.15003754999992,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"1164","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","272.81","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.8140390199999,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"1224","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","296.48","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.4780404799999,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"72%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","320.14","94.50"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.1420419499999,"y":94.50420575999998} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.68","623.68"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.675534989999925,"y":623.68023877} {"page":168,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.43","623.68"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.42553498999993,"y":623.68023877} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"118","dir":"ltr","width":"11.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"5.4.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"Fuel Demand for Heat in the ‘Residential and Other’ Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"255.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"The fuel demand for heat in households has quite different characteristics depend","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":573.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"ing on the consumption structures in each world region and their climatic condi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":561.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"tions. In regions with harsh winters, the heat demand is dominated by the building ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"sector (space heat and hot water in private and commercial buildings), but in regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"with a comparatively warm climate, the demand for space heat is generally low and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"heat is predominantly used for cooking and as low-temperature heat for hot water. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"In the commercial sector, the energy mix for heat is more diverse. The medium- to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"high-temperature process heat demand arises in this sector. Reducing the final ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"energy use for heating will involve reducing the demand (e.g., by improving the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"thermal insulation of building envelopes) and replacing inefficient procedures and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"technologies, such as the traditional use of biomass, which is still widely used for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"cooking and heating in some regions. In contrast to traditional biomass, the effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":441.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"ciency of electrical appliances can improve significantly, and they produce zero ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"direct emissions and no air pollution. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"178.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"5.12","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","232.83","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.82829284,"y":417.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":" shows the assumed average final ","dir":"ltr","width":"138.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.33","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.32829284,"y":417.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"energy demand for heating in OECD and non-OECD countries. The average global ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"consumption will decrease from 560 MJ/$1000 GDP in 2015 to 280 MJ/$1000 in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2050 in the reference scenario, but to 173 MJ/$1000 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"160 MJ/$1000 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The average global per capita energy demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"for fuels in ‘Residential and other sectors’ will decrease from around 12,600 MJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"capita per year in 2015 to 11,700 MJ/capita in the reference case. This will mainly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"be due to a shift in the global population shares towards the developing regions. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"Compared with the reference scenario, the energy intensity will decrease to ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"7300 MJ/capita in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 6700 MJ/capita in the 1.5 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"Table 5.12","dir":"ltr","width":"39.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","270.35"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":270.3479004} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"Assumed average development of specific final energy use for heating in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","98.65","270.35"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":98.65329742,"y":270.3479004} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"‘Residential and other’ sector (including power-to-heat)","dir":"ltr","width":"189.64","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","260.35"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":260.3518982} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"MJ/capita","dir":"ltr","width":"33.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.693015919999844,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","105.14","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.14301285999984,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","134.19","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.18751511999983,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","163.23","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.23200973999985,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","192.28","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.27651962999983,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2035","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","221.32","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.32101425999986,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","250.37","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.36550888999983,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2045","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","279.41","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.4100187799998,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","308.45","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":308.45451341999984,"y":236.09240158} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"Change ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.09","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","337.50","246.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.49900802999986,"y":246.08840378000002} {"page":169,"change":"none","str":"2050/2015","dir":"ltr","width":"36.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","337.50","236.09"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.49900802999986,"y":236.09240158} 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Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.9987028599998,"y":623.6531926} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"119","dir":"ltr","width":"11.41","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.59","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.58630371,"y":623.65332031} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes a significantly stronger reduction in demand than the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, additional efficiency measures will reduce ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"the final energy demand until 2025 by around 5%, and by up to 13% between 2025 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"and 2035 (compared with the 2.0  °C Scenario). Thereafter, the differences will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"become smaller, finally reaching around 8% by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"213.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"5.4.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"Resulting Energy Intensities by Region","dir":"ltr","width":"166.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","513.16"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.40","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.39830017,"y":489.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":" shows the final energy intensities related to $GDP for each of the ten ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.90","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.89830017,"y":489.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"world regions between 2015 and 2050 and for both alternative scenarios. The final ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"energy use per GDP will decrease significantly in all regions, but the decreases will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"be larger (and faster) in OECD countries. This will result in smaller regional differ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":453.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"ences in the final energy demand compared with the current situation. Compared ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"with the very ambitious assumptions of Grubler et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"223.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","277.71","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":277.7073059,"y":429.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":") for the specific final ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","297.71","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":297.7073059,"y":429.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"energy demands in northern and southern world regions, the assumptions made in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"this study are conservative. In Grubler et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"182.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.84","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.84129333,"y":405.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"), the annual global final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.84","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.8413086,"y":405.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"use, including non-energy consumption, will decrease from 363 EJ in 2015 to 245 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"EJ by 2050, whereas in our study, the annual global value will decrease to 310 EJ in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 284 EJ in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with 586 EJ in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"the reference case (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"123.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","177.44","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":177.43829345,"y":357.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"). Because the 1.5  °C target requires a significant ","dir":"ltr","width":"206.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.44","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.43829345,"y":357.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"reduction in emissions before 2030, the 1.5  °C Scenario necessarily reduces the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"energy demand more rapidly than the 2.0  °C Scenario, but only a slightly lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"annual consumption is assumed in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"162.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"5.4.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","277.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":277.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"RES Deployment for Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"215.10","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","277.16"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":277.15979003} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"The power demand will increase significantly in all scenarios. 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The available energy sources for renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.1598053} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.36","height":"6.63","transform":["6.63","0.00","0.00","6.63","75.23","107.69"],"fontName":"DJUVAN+MvpxgyCrklgsPmckmqCalibri","x":75.23027038,"y":107.69239807} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":" 500","dir":"ltr","width":"11.57","height":"6.63","transform":["6.63","0.00","0.00","6.63","67.07","116.72"],"fontName":"DJUVAN+MvpxgyCrklgsPmckmqCalibri","x":67.06802368,"y":116.72254943} {"page":170,"change":"none","str":"1,000","dir":"ltr","width":"15.09","height":"6.63","transform":["6.63","0.00","0.00","6.63","63.73","125.77"],"fontName":"DJUVAN+MvpxgyCrklgsPmckmqCalibri","x":63.72891998,"y":125.77256774} 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The core strategy is the replacement of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"conventional thermal power and heat generators with solar, wind, geothermal, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"other renewable options for the highly efficient generation of electricity for final ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"energy consumption and the generation of synthetic fuels.","dir":"ltr","width":"231.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"Our estimates of the potential for renewable power generation are based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"results of the REMix EnDat tool developed (Scholz ","dir":"ltr","width":"213.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","267.37","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":267.36828613,"y":513.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"; Stetter ","dir":"ltr","width":"35.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.37","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.36828613,"y":513.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","322.52","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.51831054,"y":513.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"; Pietzcker ","dir":"ltr","width":"46.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.52","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.51831054,"y":513.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","75.59","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":75.58830261,"y":501.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"). The technical potentials for solar and wind power in each world region ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.59","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.58830261,"y":501.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"were estimated while taking into account the different exclusion criteria and con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":489.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"straints documented by Stetter (","dir":"ltr","width":"128.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.19","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.18829345,"y":477.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"). The analysis was used to estimate the ‘eco","dir":"ltr","width":"179.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","202.19","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":202.18829345,"y":477.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":477.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"nomic’ potential for each world region, which is the upper limit of the technological ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"expansion under the different scenarios. ‘Economic’ potentials were derived by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"assuming the minimum annual full-load hours for each technology. In the case of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"PV, the assumed global economic potential was estimated to be in the order of 5.4 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"million TWh per year. The potential of CSP was even larger, at around 5.6 million ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"TWh per year. The annual wind power potentials were estimated to be in the order ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"of 500,000 TWh for onshore wind and around 100,000 TWh for offshore wind.","dir":"ltr","width":"316.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"The harvesting of global solar radiation by PVs has enormous economic poten","dir":"ltr","width":"316.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":381.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"tial worldwide. In the last few years, economies of scale have led to a significant ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"cost degression for PV modules, and large PV production capacities have been cre","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22729492,"y":357.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"ated. The PV technology also plays a major role in our scenarios because of its ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"decentralized characteristics, which make it easy to build cost-efficient renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"power supplies in rural and isolated areas. However, its restriction to sunny hours ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"causes high daily and seasonal variability. This results in rather low annual full-load ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"hours. Therefore, large quantities of storage capacity must also be installed for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"short-term storage to support the major expansion of PV. The storage options con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":285.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"sidered are pumped hydro storage (e.g., by the enhancement of existing hydro sites) ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"and a massive expansion of battery storage. This leads to uncertainties in the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"infrastructure costs for the integration of high shares of PV into the power system ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"and the mineral resources required for this. For this reason, the share of PV globally ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"remains in the range of about 30% of total power generation, with the highest shares ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"in the Middle East (40%), followed by OECD North America and Other Asia (35% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"each). The lowest shares, in the range of 20–25%, are in Eurasia, OECD Europe, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"Latin America, and China.","dir":"ltr","width":"105.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"Wind power on land will achieve an average global generation share of 25% in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"2050 in both alternative scenarios (compared with 8% in the reference case). The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"highest generation shares for onshore wind are assumed in India and Eastern ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"Europe/Eurasia, at about 30% each. The lowest shares will be in China, the Middle ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"East, and Non-OECD Asia, at 18–23%. For offshore wind, the global generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"share will rise to 8% by 2050 under both alternative scenarios, compared with only ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"1% in the reference scenario. The highest offshore wind shares of 10–15% will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"achieved under the 2.0  °C Scenario in the OECD regions and Eastern Europe/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"Eurasia. The lowest shares are predicted in the Middle East (2%), India (6%), and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"China (6.5%), where the potential is rather limited. The offshore shares under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":171,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"121","dir":"ltr","width":"11.85","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.29","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.28970336,"y":623.65332031} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario will tend to be slightly lower because of the stronger focus on PV ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"and onshore wind as the best options for a very rapid expansion of RES.","dir":"ltr","width":"288.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"Compared with PV and wind power, CSP plants promise highly flexible power ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"and heat generation, with high capacity factors due to high-temperature heat stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":561.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"age. The use of heat for desalination can also contribute to secure water supplies in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"the sunbelt of the world. We assume that its multi-purpose uses and dispatchable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"generation capability can lead to a significant role for CSP in the medium- to long-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"term future, although levelized costs of CSP are today still much higher than they ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"are for PV or wind, and investment costs for batteries for short-term electricity stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":501.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"age might also decrease in the future. Therefore, it is assumed that CSP will achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"an average global electricity generation share of 15% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"and 13% in the 1.5 °C Scenario, compared with 0.5% in the reference case. A high ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"share, close to 30%, will be achieved, especially in the Middle East. This will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"include electricity generation for export to OECD Europe of up to 120 TWh per ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"year by 2050. High CSP potentials are also assumed for Africa (16%), which will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"also export up to 280 TWh/year in 2050 from North Africa to OECD Europe—and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"for China (18–20%) and Non-OECD Asia (15–17%).","dir":"ltr","width":"213.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"Hydro power generation will increase only moderately under the alternative sce","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":393.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"narios compared with the reference case. This source has already been tapped and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"large hydro plants usually have significant ecological and societal consequences. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the average global power generation share will decrease in the alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":357.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"tive scenarios from today’s 16% to around 8%, whereas the reference scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"assumes a generation share of 14% in 2050. Nevertheless, a 30% increase in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"global hydro power generation is assumed between 2015 and 2050. The highest ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"power generation shares in 2050 are assumed to be in Latin America (24%), fol","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21429443,"y":309.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"lowed by OECD Europe (11%) and China (10%). The generation of hydro power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"plays only a minor role in the long term in the Middle East (1%), Africa, and India ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"(each 4%).","dir":"ltr","width":"43.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"Even smaller contributions are assumed for geothermal energy, ocean energy, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"and biomass. All three options have comparably high power-generation costs, but ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"offer complementary characteristics and availabilities that may stabilize future elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":237.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"tricity supply systems. The global average share of geothermal power generation is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"assumed to be about 5% in 2050, ocean energy use will contribute another 2%, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"biomass, including co-generation, will achieve a maximum of 6–7% around 2030 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"and 5% in 2050. The highest share for geothermal power generation is assumed to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"occur in Eastern Europe/Eurasia (11%), for ocean energy in OECD Pacific (4%), ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"and for biomass use in Latin America, Eastern Europe/Eurasia, and OECD Europe ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"(8–9%). It is predicted that hydrogen will take an increasing share of the remaining ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"thermal power generation, as a substitute for natural gas in gas turbines and com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13931274,"y":141.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"bined cycle gas turbine plants and with increasing contributions from hydrogen fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"cells to co-generation. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"119.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"5.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","173.37","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.3683014,"y":117.1597824} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":" shows the basic storyline in global power genera","dir":"ltr","width":"196.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","185.87","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.8683014,"y":117.1597824} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":117.1597824} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"tion under the 2.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"123.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":172,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"122","dir":"ltr","width":"12.41","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"5.4.3","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","383.44"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":383.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"RES Deployment for Heat Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"188.43","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","383.44"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":383.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"Heat generation covers a broad range of processes, including district heat (either ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"from co-generation or public heating plants), direct heating in buildings, and pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","343.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":343.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"cess heat in industry, commerce, and other sectors. Different technologies are con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","331.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":331.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"sidered for each sector, and strong RES expansion is assumed. The increasing heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"extraction from co-generation will trigger increasing district heat use, which will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"stabilizes in the long term or decrease by 2050 with the declining heat demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"attributable to ambitious efficiency measures. However, CHP will only contribute ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"significantly in regions with a tradition of district heating and/or a high heat demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.44"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.4389038} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"in the building sector. 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{"page":173,"change":"none","str":"e","dir":"ltr","width":"4.05","height":"8.14","transform":["8.14","0.00","0.00","8.14","358.95","473.80"],"fontName":"DJUVAN+KkfppbGkdybvCmbgxqCalibri","x":358.94839477,"y":473.80129992999997} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"Wind offshore","dir":"ltr","width":"47.39","height":"8.14","transform":["8.14","0.00","0.00","8.14","316.20","459.02"],"fontName":"DJUVAN+KkfppbGkdybvCmbgxqCalibri","x":316.1994934,"y":459.01739489999994} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 5.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","419.63"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":419.63488758999995} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"Development of the average global RES shares in total power generation in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"301.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.63","419.63"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.62580108,"y":419.63488758999995} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"29.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","409.64"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":409.63888539} {"page":173,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319813} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"123","dir":"ltr","width":"12.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.92","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.92160034,"y":623.65332031} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"However, the need for process heat at high temperature levels, problems associ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":597.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"ated with process integration, and specific process requirements call for additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"process-specific strategies for replacing fossil fuels in the industry sector. As men","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":573.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"tioned above, electrification is a comparatively efficient strategy. Other strategies ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"are the use of biomass and hydrogen or—with some limitations—concentrated solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"energy. While hydrogen is used to provide high temperature process heat in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"study, it could—at least partially—be replaced by other synthetic energy carriers, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"such as synthetic methane, which can be generated from hydrogen and a (renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":513.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"able) carbon source. This power-to-gas option has the advantage that it can be fed in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"into the gas grid, and act in storage and transport. However, energy losses are around ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"20% higher (compared with hydrogen). As a consequence, synthetic methane is not ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"taken into account in the scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"140.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"Overall, biomass use for heating in the ‘Residential and other’ sector is decreas","dir":"ltr","width":"316.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":453.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"ing as the traditional and currently inefficient use of biomass is replaced by advanced ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"efficient technologies, and biomass is used in a more efficient way in the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"system. Thus, the average global share of biomass as a final energy source for heat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22531127,"y":417.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"ing will decrease from today’s 34% to 22% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"17% in the 1.5 °C Scenario, when direct electrification and indirect electrification ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"(via synthetic gases and fuels) play a stronger role. In contrast, biomass use in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"‘Industry’ sector will increase continuously as the combustion of biomass can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"used to generate high-temperature heat for many industrial processes for which ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"renewable low-temperature heat sources are unsuitable. The average global share of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"biomass for the final energy for heating in the ‘Industry’ sector will increase from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"9% in 2015 to 19% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 14% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"The largest shares are assumed for Latin America (47%) and Africa (35%) in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, where biomass residues are still rather abundant, with much lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"values for the 1.5 °C Scenario (18–21%). In that scenario, biomass as a transition ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"technology will be avoided due to the earlier development of alternative renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"technologies and electrification. The lowest shares are assumed for the Middle East ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"(4%) and China (7%) in both alternative scenarios because of their limited sustain","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","249.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":249.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"able potentials.","dir":"ltr","width":"60.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"Solar collectors are suitable for hot water preparation and for supporting heating ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"systems using heat storage. In heat grids, large heat storage systems can also be used ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"to balance the seasonal heat demand and solar generation, and the integration of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"solar heat at low costs in the long term. The contributions of solar collectors to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"heat supply are limited by the temperatures that collectors can provide (below ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"120 °C for traditional collectors and up to 300 °C for concentrated collectors) and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"the seasonal variations in regions with significant space heat demand. In the alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","153.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":153.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"tive scenarios, the global average share of solar thermal final energy for heating will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"rise to 19% in the ‘Residential and other’ sector. The largest shares are assumed to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"be in the Middle East (30–25%), where the abundance of solar radiation can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"exploited by concentrated solar heat applications. All other regions have shares ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"between 15% and 22%, considering the limited applicability of concentrated sys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","93.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":93.1597824} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"tems. The global average solar share in the ‘Industry’ sector will increase to 16% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"2050. The largest shares are achieved in the Middle East (25%) and Africa (20%) ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":174,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"124","dir":"ltr","width":"12.60","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"and the lowest shares are assumed in Eastern Europe/Eurasia (9%), followed by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"OECD regions (10–13%).","dir":"ltr","width":"104.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"Heat pumps allow very efficient heat supply. System-wide CO","dir":"ltr","width":"244.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","310.36","571.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":310.35708618,"y":571.65979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":" emissions depend ","dir":"ltr","width":"74.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.36","573.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.35708618,"y":573.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"on the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"45.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85707855,"y":561.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","99.46","559.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.45970153,"y":559.65979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":" emissions in the power mix. Because of their generation of low-","dir":"ltr","width":"283.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","102.46","561.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":102.45970153,"y":561.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"temperature heat, heat pumps play a role in space heating in regions with moderate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":549.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"or cold climates, but large industrial heat pumps can also generate low-temperature ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":537.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"heat for industrial processes and tap the enormous potential of waste heat. A con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":525.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","525.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1336975,"y":525.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"tinuous improvement in the coefficient of performance of heat pumps, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":513.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"describes the ratio of useful energy in the form of heat to the required compressor ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":501.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"energy in the form of electricity, in all existing plants from an average of 3 today to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":489.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"a value of 4 in 2050 is assumed. The application potential of heat pumps (in terms ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":477.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"of MW","dir":"ltr","width":"29.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85969924,"y":465.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"th","dir":"ltr","width":"4.67","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","83.07","463.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.0691986,"y":463.65979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":") is assumed to be limited by the low temperature of the heat provided, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"300.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","87.74","465.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":87.73719787,"y":465.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"increasing share of the grid-connected heat supply, the assumed increase in exten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":453.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","453.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15618896,"y":453.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"sive building insulation, and the low space heating demand in some world regions. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":441.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"In addition to heat pumps, an increase in deep geothermal energy use is assumed for ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":429.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"the ‘Industry’ sector, with an increase of up to 11% in the global average share of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":417.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"final energy by 2050 under both alternative scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"214.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":405.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"Hydrogen use for direct heating is linked to the increasing substitution of natural ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85720062,"y":393.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"gas with hydrogen in all sectors, except transport. This will lead to a hydrogen share ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":381.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"of 12–14% in final energy for heating in the ‘Industry’ sector under the two alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":369.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","369.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23120117,"y":369.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"tive scenarios and 3% in the ‘Residential and other’ sector under the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":357.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"and 4% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. The highest hydrogen shares in ‘Industry’ are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":345.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"assumed for OECD North America (22–23%), followed by other OECD regions, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":333.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia, China, and the Middle East with shares of 13%–18%. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":321.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"lowest shares, below 5%, are assumed for Latin America and Africa, where biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":309.15979003} {"page":175,"change":"none","str":"from residues provides a flexible alternative. 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Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.9988857599998,"y":623.65323461} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"127","dir":"ltr","width":"12.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.93","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.9335022,"y":623.65332031} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"5.4.5","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Other Assumptions for Stationary Processes","dir":"ltr","width":"217.46","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","595.79"],"fontName":"PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Although the energy losses in the production of synthetic fuels are significant, these ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"fuels are expected to be mandatory in the deep decarbonisation scenarios for sectors ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"and processes in which the direct use of other renewable sources, including renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","543.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":543.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"able power, is not technically feasible. We assume an optimistic increase in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"39.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","93.14","523.12"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.13760375,"y":523.1237793} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":" of electrolytic hydrogen generation, from 66% today to 77% by 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.14","519.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.13760375,"y":519.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"(ratio of energy output [H","dir":"ltr","width":"106.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85760116,"y":507.79382324} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","160.73","506.29"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.7263031,"y":506.29379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"] to energy input [electricity]). The generation of syn","dir":"ltr","width":"218.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","163.73","507.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.7263031,"y":507.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","507.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328857,"y":507.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"thetic fuels (such as Fischer-Tropsch fuels) from hydrogen, using CO","dir":"ltr","width":"274.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":495.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","328.19","494.29"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.18579101,"y":494.29379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":" as the carbon ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.19","495.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.18579101,"y":495.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"source, is assumed to be a complementary option that will allow the decarbonisation ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85578918,"y":483.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"of long-range transport, particularly aviation and international bunkers, without ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85578918,"y":471.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"exceeding the defined maximum sustainable biomass use. Therefore, the assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85578918,"y":459.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"shares of power-to-liquid synfuels in the aggregated biofuel/synfuel fraction of all ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85578918,"y":447.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"transport modes (according to ","dir":"ltr","width":"120.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85578918,"y":435.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Sect. 6.3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"41.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.34","435.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.33578491,"y":435.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":".) is a result of the sectoral allocation of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"171.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","216.13","435.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":216.12579345,"y":435.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"limited biomass potentials in each world region. The assumed efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"286.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85578918,"y":423.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.28","427.12"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.27731323,"y":427.12368774} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":" of synfuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.28","423.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.27731323,"y":423.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"generation will increase from 35% in 2020 to 42% in 2050. As well as in fuel-cell ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":411.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"vehicles, hydrogen can be used to replace natural gas in stationary processes by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":399.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"2030  in both scenarios, mostly for use in industry and co-generation plants. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":387.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"scenarios do not assume a hydrogen economy in the long term. The development of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":375.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen infrastructure is expected to be inefficient, especially for residential use. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":363.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"However, because hydrogen is assumed to be fed into the gas grid with a share of up ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":351.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"to 100% by 2050, it will also be partly used in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":339.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"which includes various commercial applications.","dir":"ltr","width":"195.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":327.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"The allocation of the limited biomass to the power, heat, and transport sectors ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","315.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8573227,"y":315.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"differs significantly between the available scenarios. In this study, the biomass in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":303.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios is mainly for use in transport, co-generation, and industry. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":291.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Traditional biomass use is strongly reduced, but biomass remains an important pil","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":279.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","279.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16833496,"y":279.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"lar of heat supply in the ‘Residential and other’ sector under the assumption that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":267.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"most-efficient technologies are implemented. Biofuel production for transportation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":255.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"remains limited. An increase in overall efficiency of up to 75% is assumed, implying ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":243.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"the use of residues for heat and power generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"198.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":231.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency of fossil technologies will also increase, especially for gas power ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","219.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8573227,"y":219.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"plants. This goes along with the decreasing utilization rates that result from the vari","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":207.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","207.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20532226,"y":207.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"able feed-in from renewable energies. Therefore, the scenarios implicitly assume ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":195.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"that the future innovations in all combustion technologies will focus on maximum ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":183.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"efficiency at lower utilization rates. Gas power plants will be used for backup, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":171.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"requiring low investment but providing high flexibility to the power system. ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":159.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, a part of the energy transition is the rapid replacement of inflexible ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":147.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"medium- to base-load power plant capacities with flexible gas power plants.","dir":"ltr","width":"303.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85731887,"y":135.79379272} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","89.81"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":89.81079864} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Ratio energy output (H","dir":"ltr","width":"78.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","86.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.4707985,"y":86.9803009} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","135.93","85.71"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.93359375,"y":85.70529937} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":") to energy input (electricity)","dir":"ltr","width":"98.05","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","138.48","86.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":138.4835968,"y":86.9803009} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","77.81"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":77.81079864} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Ratio of energy output (synfuels) to energy input (electricity).","dir":"ltr","width":"210.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","74.98"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.4707985,"y":74.9803009} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65533447} {"page":178,"change":"none","str":"Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"138.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.66"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65533447} {"page":179,"change":"none","str":"128","dir":"ltr","width":"12.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":179,"change":"none","str":"References","dir":"ltr","width":"55.75","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":179,"change":"none","str":"Anthoff D, Tol RS (2013) The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: A decomposition analy","dir":"ltr","width":"328.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","569.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":569.79382324} {"page":179,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","382.72","569.79"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.72158813,"y":569.79382324} {"page":179,"change":"none","str":"sis using fund. 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If material is not ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","129.11"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.11480712} {"page":181,"change":"none","str":"included in the chapter’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","119.12"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.11881256} {"page":181,"change":"none","str":"statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","109.12"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":109.12281036} {"page":181,"change":"none","str":"the copyright holder.","dir":"ltr","width":"70.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","99.13"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.12680816} {"page":181,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"54.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.00","623.65"],"fontName":"LNXWIX+PcbybqWthrwfPlrfbxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.99868774,"y":623.65319824} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"131","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.76","56.71"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.76180933999996,"y":56.70920181} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"© The Author(s) 2019 ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","56.71"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_6","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 6","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"210.49","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, Özcan Deniz, and Stephan Schmid","dir":"ltr","width":"323.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Detailed background for all transport scenarios and development path","dir":"ltr","width":"285.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.07","465.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.06829736999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","465.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830226,"y":465.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"ways including all key parameters, and story-lines for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"transport scenario pathways. Mode specific efficiency improvement over time for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"road-, rail- and aviation transport technologies. Explanations of all vehicle tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","429.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829126999995,"y":429.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"nologies are included in the scenarios, along with the rationale for their selection. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Description of key technology parameters for all relevant transport modes such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"energy demand per passenger, and per freight tonne. Detailed regional breakdown ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"for developments in regard to transport energy demand for ten world regions and all ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":381.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"transport modes are provided.","dir":"ltr","width":"119.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":369.13769531} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"6.1","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","331.14"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":331.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Introduction","dir":"ltr","width":"65.12","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","331.14"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829828999998,"y":331.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Global transport accounted for 23% of total anthropogenic CO","dir":"ltr","width":"252.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":303.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","306.85","301.64"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.85040187,"y":301.64169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":" emissions in 2010 ","dir":"ltr","width":"78.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.85","303.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.85040187,"y":303.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"and those emissions have increased at a rapid rate in recent decades, reaching 7 Gt ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":291.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"in 2010 according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Sims et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"286.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":279.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","340.67","279.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.67037867,"y":279.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.67","279.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.67037867,"y":279.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":" The ","dir":"ltr","width":"22.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.50","279.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.50039576,"y":279.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"reason for this steady increase in emissions is that passenger and freight transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":267.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"activities are increasing in all world regions, and there is currently no sign that this ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":255.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"growth will slow down in the near future. The increasing energy demand in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":243.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"transport sector has mainly been met by greenhouse gas (GHG)-emitting fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":231.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"fuels. Although (battery) electric mobility has recently surged considerably, it has ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":219.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"done so from a very low base, which is why, in terms of total numbers, electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":207.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"still plays a relatively minor role as an energy carrier in the transport sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"302.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":195.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"Apart from their impacts on climate, increasing transport levels, especially of ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","183.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86038873999998,"y":183.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"cars, trucks, and aeroplanes, also have unwanted side-effects, including accidents, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":171.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"traffic jams, the emission of noise and other pollutants, visual pollution, and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":159.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"disruption of landscapes by the large-scale build-up of the transport infrastructure. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.14"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.860388739999976,"y":147.14169311} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf (","dir":"ltr","width":"48.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","120.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":120.82099914} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","102.51","120.82"],"fontName":"NTYQUD+QsxhxnXrhjhcBxybfmWingdings-Regular","x":102.51180170999997,"y":120.82099914} {"page":182,"change":"none","str":") · B. van den Adel · Ö. Deniz · S. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, if we are to cater to people’s desire for mobility while keeping the econ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","573.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":573.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"omy running and meeting the Paris climate goals, fundamental technical, opera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","561.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20230102,"y":561.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"tional, and behavioural measures are required immediately.","dir":"ltr","width":"236.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"In this transport chapter, we discuss potential transport activity pathways and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"technological developments by which the requirement that warming does not exceed ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"pre-industrial levels by more than 2.0 °C or 1.5 °C can be met—while at the same ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"time maintaining a reasonable standard of mobility.","dir":"ltr","width":"205.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"For our transport scenario modelling, the global warming limits of 2.0  °C and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C were translated into transport CO","dir":"ltr","width":"173.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","227.25","475.66"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.25289916,"y":475.65979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":" budgets. We structured our scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"159.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","230.25","477.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.25289916,"y":477.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"designs around the following key CO","dir":"ltr","width":"149.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":465.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","203.07","463.66"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.0670929,"y":463.65979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"-reducing measures","dir":"ltr","width":"78.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.07","465.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.0670929,"y":465.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","284.10","468.49"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.0960083,"y":468.48968505} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":":","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.10","465.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.0960083,"y":465.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85601043,"y":447.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Powertrain electrification;","dir":"ltr","width":"103.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","447.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85601043,"y":447.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85601043,"y":435.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Enhancement of energy efficiency through technological development;","dir":"ltr","width":"283.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","435.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85601043,"y":435.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85601043,"y":423.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Use of bio-based and synthetically produced fuels;","dir":"ltr","width":"202.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","423.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85601043,"y":423.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85601043,"y":411.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Modal shifts (from high- to low-energy intensity modes) and overall reductions ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","411.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85601043,"y":411.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"in transport activity in energy-intensive transport modes.","dir":"ltr","width":"226.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85601043,"y":399.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"These measures are outlined in more detail in the subsequent chapters.","dir":"ltr","width":"281.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85601043,"y":381.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"6.2","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","343.16"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":343.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Global Transport Picture in 2015","dir":"ltr","width":"169.21","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","343.16"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":343.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"The world final energy demand in the transport sector totalled 94,812 PJ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","315.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":315.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","346.58","318.49"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.57861328,"y":318.48968505} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":" in 2015, ","dir":"ltr","width":"38.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.58","315.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.57861328,"y":315.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"according to the IEA Energy Balances (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"175.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"2017a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","229.58","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":229.57861328,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","254.02","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.01861572,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","258.64","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.63861083,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","263.64","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":263.63861083,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"c","dir":"ltr","width":"4.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","268.26","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":268.25860595,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"). Based on this estimate, we ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","272.70","303.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.6986084,"y":303.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"used TRAEM (Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"84.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":291.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","138.61","291.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":138.60861206,"y":291.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":" to model the freight and passenger transport performance ","dir":"ltr","width":"237.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","151.11","291.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":151.10861206,"y":291.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"in our transport model with statistical data and energy efficiency figures.","dir":"ltr","width":"289.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":279.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"The following paragraphs outline the 2015 transport structure modelled in ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","267.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85861206,"y":267.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"TRAEM, which is the starting point for the subsequent scenario building until 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":255.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"As can be seen from Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","243.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85861206,"y":243.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"6.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","168.72","243.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":168.71861267,"y":243.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":", road passenger transport had the biggest transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"206.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","181.22","243.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.21861267,"y":243.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"final energy share of 51% in 2015. Most of this comprised individual road passenger ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":231.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"modes (mostly cars, but also two- and three-wheel vehicles), which accounted for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":219.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"45% of all end energy in the transport sector. In total, road transport (passenger and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":207.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"freight) accounted for around 90% of total final energy demand for transport.","dir":"ltr","width":"308.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":195.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"The majority of total passenger–km (pkm) in passenger transport (around 85% ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","183.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85861206,"y":183.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"of total pkm) is contributed by road transport modes. Freight is much more rail-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":171.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"oriented, and has a 42% share of total tonne–km (tkm), as shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":159.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"6.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.09","159.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.08862304,"y":159.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":". The ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","364.59","159.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.58862304,"y":159.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"tkm share is much larger than the energy share arising from the much higher energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":147.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"efficiency of railways compared with trucks.","dir":"ltr","width":"177.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":135.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","123.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85861206,"y":123.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"6.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.58","123.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.57861328,"y":123.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":" shows the powertrain split of all transport modes in 2015 (by pkm or ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.08","123.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.07861328,"y":123.15979003} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"tkm respectively). With a few exceptions, the majority of modes were still heavily ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":111.1597824} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"dependent on conventional internal combustion engines (ICE). A small number of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":99.1597824} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"buses had electric powertrains, which were mainly trolleybuses and increasingly ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85860824,"y":87.1597824} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","62.04"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":62.04309844} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"See also Teske et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"73.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","59.21"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.47069931,"y":59.2126007} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","130.76","59.21"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.75854492,"y":59.2126007} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","147.76","59.21"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.75854492,"y":59.2126007} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","50.04"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":50.04309844} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"International aviation and navigation bunkers are not included in this figure.","dir":"ltr","width":"257.87","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","47.21"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.47069931,"y":47.2126007} {"page":183,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83099365,"y":623.65319824} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"133","dir":"ltr","width":"12.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.20","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.2020874,"y":623.65332031} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"also battery-","dir":"ltr","width":"49.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"powered electric buses, predominantly in China. China also has a par","dir":"ltr","width":"278.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.81","235.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.8082962,"y":235.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","235.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":235.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"ticularly large number of electric two- and three-wheel vehicles. Almost all battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":223.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"electric scooters worldwide were in China. Passenger rail was electrified to a large ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":211.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"extent (e.g., metro and high-speed trains), whereas freight trains were predomi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":199.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","199.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":199.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"nantly not electrified.","dir":"ltr","width":"85.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":187.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"OECD America and OECD Europe together make up nearly half the total energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","175.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":175.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"demand (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":163.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"6.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.56","163.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.55828857,"y":163.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"), and China is almost on the same level as OECD Europe, although ","dir":"ltr","width":"266.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.06","163.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.05828857,"y":163.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"it has about twice as many inhabitants as OECD Europe.","dir":"ltr","width":"226.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":151.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"6.3","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","113.60"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":113.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"Measures to Reduce and Decarbonise Transport Energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.39","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","113.60"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":113.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"69.35","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","99.60"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":99.59519958} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"This section describes the measures required to reduce the final energy demand and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","71.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":71.59919738} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"decarbonise the transport sector. A variety of actions will be required so that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","59.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":59.5992012} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"transport sector can conform to the <2.0 °C or 1.5 °C global warming pathways. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","47.60"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":47.5992012} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"45","dir":"ltr","width":"8.10","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","244.45","570.83"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":244.44760131,"y":570.82958984} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"%","dir":"ltr","width":"5.71","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","252.54","570.83"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":252.54208374,"y":570.82958984} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"6%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.74","height":"7.97","transform":["7.97","0.00","0.00","7.97","197.27","447.68"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":197.2736969,"y":447.67718505} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"35%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.79","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","87.68","482.20"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":87.67960357,"y":482.20111083} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"1%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.75","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","95.52","569.85"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":95.5243988,"y":569.85388183} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"1%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.78","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","102.98","584.97"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":102.97962951,"y":584.96868896} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"5%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.74","height":"7.97","transform":["7.97","0.00","0.00","7.97","121.57","592.98"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":121.56729888,"y":592.98077392} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"5%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.75","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","150.92","595.82"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":150.9217987,"y":595.82067871} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"2%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.75","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","170.81","597.46"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":170.81039428,"y":597.45837402} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"29.21","height":"14.43","transform":["14.43","0.00","0.00","14.43","165.47","520.24"],"fontName":"LQUESH+MwrddlDxpdpgBwjtttCalibri-Bold","x":165.46769714,"y":520.24072265} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"Road Private Passenge","dir":"ltr","width":"73.15","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","275.74","586.50"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":275.74160766,"y":586.49737548} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"2.79","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","348.90","586.50"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":348.9025879,"y":586.49737548} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"Road Public Passenge","dir":"ltr","width":"69.55","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","275.74","568.03"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":275.74160766,"y":568.03271484} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"2.79","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","345.63","568.03"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":345.62741088,"y":568.03271484} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"Road Commercial","dir":"ltr","width":"57.49","height":"7.99","transform":["7.99","0.00","0.00","7.99","275.74","549.59"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+TtwmfwXdcnvvHqxjnwCalibri","x":275.74160766,"y":549.58532714} {"page":184,"change":"none","str":"Freight 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The total numbers of electric vehicles, particularly in road transport, are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"insignificant, but because road transport is by far the largest CO","dir":"ltr","width":"256.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","310.78","427.66"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":310.78250122,"y":427.65979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":" emitter in overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"74.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.78","429.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.78250122,"y":429.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"transport, it offers a very powerful lever for decarbonisation. In terms of drivetrain ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":417.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"electrification, we cluster the world regions into three groups, according to the dif","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":405.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","405.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14248657,"y":405.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"fusion theory (Rogers ","dir":"ltr","width":"89.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":393.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"2003","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.57","393.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.5724945,"y":393.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"):","dir":"ltr","width":"6.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","163.57","393.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.5724945,"y":393.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":375.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"Innovators","dir":"ltr","width":"43.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","375.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.86250305,"y":375.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":": OECD North America (excluding Mexico), OECD Europe, OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"279.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.99","375.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.9925003,"y":375.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"Pacific, and China","dir":"ltr","width":"72.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86250305,"y":363.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":351.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"Moderate","dir":"ltr","width":"38.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","351.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.86250305,"y":351.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":": Mexico, Non-OECD Asia, India, Eurasia, and Latin America","dir":"ltr","width":"248.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","104.59","351.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.59249877,"y":351.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":339.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"Late adopters","dir":"ltr","width":"55.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","339.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":65.86250305,"y":339.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":": Africa and the Middle East.","dir":"ltr","width":"115.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.04","339.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.04250335,"y":339.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"Although this clustering is rough, it sufficiently mirrors the basic tendencies we ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86250305,"y":321.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"modelled. The regions differ in the speed with which novel technologies, especially ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":309.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"electric drivetrains, will penetrate the market.","dir":"ltr","width":"181.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":297.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"6.3.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86249923,"y":261.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"The 5.0 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"85.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","261.16"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36250305,"y":261.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"The 5.0 °C Scenario follows the IEA Current Policies Scenario (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"282.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":237.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"2017a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","336.40","237.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.40350341,"y":237.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":") until ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.84","237.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.84350585,"y":237.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"2040, with extrapolation to 2050. We model only minor electrification over all ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":225.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"transport modes (see Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":213.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"6.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.52","213.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.52249145,"y":213.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"), with passenger cars and buses making relevant gains ","dir":"ltr","width":"218.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","169.02","213.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":169.02249145,"y":213.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"in ","dir":"ltr","width":"10.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":201.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"electric vehicle","dir":"ltr","width":"60.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.25","201.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":64.25250244,"y":201.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":" (EV) shares. For example, we project a share of 30% for ","dir":"ltr","width":"232.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.17","201.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.17250061,"y":201.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"30.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","357.23","201.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":357.23251342,"y":201.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"electric vehicles","dir":"ltr","width":"64.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.86249923,"y":189.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":" (BEV) in China by 2050 due to foreseeable legislation and techno","dir":"ltr","width":"263.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","118.35","189.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.34750366,"y":189.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","189.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20748901,"y":189.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"logical advancements in that country (Cui and Xiao ","dir":"ltr","width":"213.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":177.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","267.35","177.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":267.35250854,"y":177.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"), whereas for the world ","dir":"ltr","width":"101.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.35","177.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.35250854,"y":177.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"car fleet, the share is projected to increase to only around 10%. The growth in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":165.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"share of the commercial road vehicle fleet and of the fleet of two- and three-wheel ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":153.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"vehicles held of electric powertrains will be small, as will be the increase in further ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":141.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"rail electrification. Aviation and navigation (shipping) will remain fully dependent ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":129.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"on conventional kerosene and diesel, respectively.","dir":"ltr","width":"199.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86249923,"y":117.15979003} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":186,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"104.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"136","dir":"ltr","width":"12.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"6.3.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.82"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":331.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"85.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","331.82"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":331.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"Based on the low market share of BEV observed today (2018), minimal progress in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"electrification until 2020 is assumed in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Moving towards 2030, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"the ","dir":"ltr","width":"14.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"innovator","dir":"ltr","width":"38.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","68.14","283.82"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":68.13829803,"y":283.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":" regions will experience strong electrification, encouraged by purchase ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","106.93","283.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":106.92829895,"y":283.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"incentives, EV credit systems, and tightened CO","dir":"ltr","width":"195.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","249.48","270.32"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.47850036,"y":270.32250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":" fleet emission targets. Passenger ","dir":"ltr","width":"135.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","252.48","271.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":252.47850036,"y":271.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"cars and light commercial vehicles are projected to achieve shares of BEVs in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850906,"y":259.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"regional stocks between 21% and 30%, whereas heavy commercial vehicles and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.82"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850906,"y":247.82250976} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"buses will attain even higher EV fleet shares of between 28% and 52% by 2030. 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6.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","366.65"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":366.65249633} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"Powertrain split for all transport modes in 2050 under the 5.0 °C Scenario in terms of ","dir":"ltr","width":"301.45","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.74","366.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.74479675,"y":366.65249633} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"transport performance","dir":"ltr","width":"75.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","356.66"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":356.65649414} {"page":187,"change":"none","str":"J. 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The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"proportion of buses and heavy trucks that will be BEV in 2050 will be around ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"60–70%. 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Except for Latin America, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"191.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"moderate","dir":"ltr","width":"37.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","245.65","525.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":245.64930725,"y":525.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":" regions will have an ICE ","dir":"ltr","width":"104.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","283.27","525.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":283.2692871,"y":525.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"share of 83% or less for passenger cars. 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In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"171.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","217.78","465.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.77830505,"y":465.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"68.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"moderate","dir":"ltr","width":"37.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","122.20","453.16"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":122.19529724,"y":453.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":" regions will reach BEV shares of up to 67% for passen","dir":"ltr","width":"222.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","159.82","453.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.81530761,"y":453.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","453.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22531127,"y":453.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"ger cars and light commercial vehicles and between 54% and 65% for buses and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"heavy trucks by 2050. 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Only slow ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"electrification will occur in Africa, with small and cheap BEVs (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"6.6","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","329.66","393.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.6572876,"y":393.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.16","393.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.1572876,"y":393.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"As an example of how different the electrification speeds will be across the world ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"regions, Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"6.7","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.01","369.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.00830078,"y":369.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":" shows the uptake of electric and fuel-cell drivetrains in buses and ","dir":"ltr","width":"268.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","119.51","369.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":119.50830078,"y":369.15979003} {"page":188,"change":"none","str":"two- and three-wheel vehicles, region by region, in terms of pkm. 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(in ","dir":"ltr","width":"104.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","282.92","299.35"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.9160988,"y":299.35269933} {"page":189,"change":"none","str":"PJ of final energy demand)","dir":"ltr","width":"91.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","289.36"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.83259126000001,"y":289.35669713} {"page":189,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83098528,"y":623.6532059200001} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"139","dir":"ltr","width":"12.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.12","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.12051391,"y":623.65332031} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"6.3.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","352.67"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":352.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5 °C Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"85.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","352.67"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":352.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"In the 1.5  °C Scenario, an earlier and more rapid ramp-up of electric powertrain ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":328.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"penetration is required than in the 2.0 °C Scenario and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"239.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":316.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"innovative","dir":"ltr","width":"41.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","293.22","316.67"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":293.21929931,"y":316.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":" regions will ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.78","316.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.77929687,"y":316.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"be at the forefront. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"98.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":304.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"moderate","dir":"ltr","width":"37.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","152.27","304.67"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":152.26829528,"y":304.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":" regions will also need to electrify more rapidly ","dir":"ltr","width":"198.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","189.89","304.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.88830566,"y":304.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"than in the 2.0 °C Scenario, but will end up with only a minimally higher share by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":292.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the passenger car sector in particular, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":280.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"(PHEVs) will ensure a sharp reduction in conventional combustion engine vehicles ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":268.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"between 2030 and 2050. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"125.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":256.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"late adopter","dir":"ltr","width":"48.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","179.73","256.67"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":179.728302,"y":256.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":" regions, there is no difference between ","dir":"ltr","width":"159.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.35","256.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.34829711,"y":256.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. The phasing out of internal combustion engine ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":244.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"(ICE) vehicles will occur more quickly under the 1.5  °C Scenario than under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"87.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"6.10","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","141.19","220.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.18829345,"y":220.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","158.69","220.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.68829345,"y":220.66668701} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"6.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","176.67"],"fontName":"JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":176.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"Mode-Specific Efficiency and Improvements Over Time","dir":"ltr","width":"273.54","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","176.67"],"fontName":"JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":176.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"In passenger transport, trains and buses are much more energy efficient per pkm ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":148.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"than passenger cars or aeroplanes. This situation does not change fundamentally if ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":136.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"only electric drivetrains are compared (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"178.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":124.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"6.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.05","124.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.04830932,"y":124.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"). It is apparent that railways and ","dir":"ltr","width":"138.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.55","124.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.54830932,"y":124.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"especially ships are clearly more energy efficient than trucks in transporting freight ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":112.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"(Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":100.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"6.12","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","76.04","100.67"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.03829956,"y":100.66670227} {"page":190,"change":"none","str":"). 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The fuel consumption reduction potential of petrol ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","182.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":182.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"engines as a result of engine improvements and hybridization is around 25–30%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","170.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":170.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"and it is around 15–20% for diesel engines (van Basshuysen and Schäfer ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","158.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":158.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.73","158.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.728302,"y":158.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.73","158.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.728302,"y":158.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"Maximum efficiencies of 38–40% can be reached by ICE (Schäfer ","dir":"ltr","width":"270.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","146.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":146.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.22","146.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.21829223,"y":146.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"), whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.22","146.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.21829223,"y":146.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"electric drivetrains have efficiencies of 80–85% (including [re]charging losses). ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","134.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":134.5704956} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"Besides the reduction in engine losses, both lightweight construction and reductions ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","122.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":122.57048797} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"in rolling resistance will result in additional fuel savings.","dir":"ltr","width":"227.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","110.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":110.57048797} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"Hybrid systems increase the complexity of powertrains, resulting in higher ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","98.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":98.57048797} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"masses and higher costs, but they offer additional fuel-saving potentials. Energy can ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","86.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":86.57048797} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"thus be recovered by recuperation during braking in hybridized and all-electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","74.57"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":74.57048797} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"0.00 ","dir":"ltr","width":"17.60","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","488.50"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":488.50201416} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"0.50","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","500.51"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":500.50997924} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"1.00","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","512.56"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":512.56195068} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"1.50","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","524.58"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":524.57873535} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"2.00","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","536.63"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":536.6307373} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"2.50","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","548.65"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":548.64752197} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"3.00","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","560.70"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":560.69952392} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"3.50","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","572.74"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":572.74273681} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"4.00","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","584.77"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":584.76831054} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"4.50","dir":"ltr","width":"15.61","height":"8.80","transform":["8.80","0.00","0.00","8.80","70.34","596.79"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":70.34400177,"y":596.7932129} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"MJ/tkm ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.88","height":"9.74","transform":["0.00","9.74","-9.74","0.00","61.82","515.22"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":61.82259674999997,"y":515.2150339899999} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"(2015)","dir":"ltr","width":"25.66","height":"9.74","transform":["0.00","9.74","-9.74","0.00","61.82","548.19"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+DfffkxFnsdkkTvxmmkCalibri","x":61.82259674999997,"y":548.19342755} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 6.12","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","401.40"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":401.40039062} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"Final energy demand in freight transport modes in 2015 (world averages)","dir":"ltr","width":"248.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","401.40"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980316,"y":401.40039062} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":192,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"104.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"142","dir":"ltr","width":"11.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"vehicles. In BEV and FCEV, advanced battery technologies can reduce the overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","422.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":422.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"vehicle mass. However, post-lithium technologies, such as lithium–sulfur and solid-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","410.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":410.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"state batteries with increased energy densities and lower systems masses compared ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","398.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":398.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"with today’s Li-ion battery technologies, will probably not enter the transport sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","386.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":386.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"before 2030 (Schmuch et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"115.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","374.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":374.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","169.39","374.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":169.38830566,"y":374.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","189.39","374.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.38830566,"y":374.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"In total, we project a 1% increase in annual efficiency on a per passenger/km ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","362.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":362.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"basis (the same for all drivetrains) for the 5.0  °C and 2.0  °C Scenarios. The effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","350.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":350.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","350.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16229248,"y":350.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"ciency improvements for 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario will be achieved in 2040 under ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","338.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":338.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenario (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","326.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":326.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"6.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","155.91","326.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.90829467,"y":326.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","173.41","326.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.40829467,"y":326.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"6.3.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","290.26"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":290.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"Light and Heavy Freight Vehicles","dir":"ltr","width":"142.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","290.26"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":290.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"Like passenger cars, trucks are currently driven almost exclusively by conventional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","266.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":266.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"ICE. With a market share of 84% of diesel-fuelled vehicles in 2015 (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"301.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","254.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":254.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"2017c","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","355.26","254.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":355.2572937,"y":254.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"), ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.70","254.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.69729614,"y":254.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"the global fleet of trucks was predominantly operating on diesel (IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","242.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":242.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"2017b","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.01","242.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.00830078,"y":242.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"). In ","dir":"ltr","width":"20.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","368.01","242.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":368.00830078,"y":242.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"some regions, such as the Middle East, trucks are also powered by gasoline to a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","230.26"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":230.26098632} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"considerable degree. 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6.13","dir":"ltr","width":"31.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","457.09"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.858299239999994,"y":457.09091186} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"World average energy consumption development for passenger cars per powertrain in ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.63","457.09"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.62930295999999,"y":457.09091186} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"2015 (","dir":"ltr","width":"21.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","447.09"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858299239999994,"y":447.09490966} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"left","dir":"ltr","width":"10.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","75.81","447.09"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":75.81379698999999,"y":447.09490966} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":") and 2050 (","dir":"ltr","width":"41.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.68","447.09"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.67680356999999,"y":447.09490966} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"right","dir":"ltr","width":"16.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","127.99","447.09"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":127.98680112999999,"y":447.09490966} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","144.52","447.09"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.51930235,"y":447.09490966} {"page":193,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83099364,"y":623.65319824} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"143","dir":"ltr","width":"11.56","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.47","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.47070312,"y":623.65332031} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"the commercial sector, it is likely that many electrical charging stations will be set ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","352.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":352.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"up on the private grounds of logistics operators. The market growth of BEV in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":340.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"truck sector will require considerable public spending on the installation of over","dir":"ltr","width":"328.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":328.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","328.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":328.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"head catenary lines along major highways for trolley trucks (hybridized with diesel, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":316.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"fuel cells, or batteries). The first pilot lanes are being developed in Germany, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":304.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"Sweden, and California (USA) (Siemens ","dir":"ltr","width":"165.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":292.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","219.39","292.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.38830566,"y":292.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.39","292.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.38830566,"y":292.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"6.3.3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.48"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":256.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"Buses","dir":"ltr","width":"24.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","256.48"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":256.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"State-of-the-art city buses operate on ICE (diesel or gas) or are trolley buses (all-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"electric or hybridized with an additional battery or diesel motor). 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The short distances between stations, small operating ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"radii, and moderate daily mileages make the use of batteries in city buses a viable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":184.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"option, complemented by fuel cells for routes with higher ranges or difficult ter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":172.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","172.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":172.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"rains. Battery electric buses are between the prototype/experimental stage and a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","160.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":160.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"mature technology. In China, battery electric buses are already an integral part of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":148.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"public bus transport systems, and the city of Shenzen has had a 100% electric bus ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":136.4801941} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"fleet since 2016 (over 16,000 battery electric buses) (Sisson ","dir":"ltr","width":"236.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":124.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","290.56","124.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.55828857,"y":124.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"). 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","dir":"ltr","width":"50.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","88.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":88.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.97","88.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.96829986,"y":88.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":") and 26 in the USA (Eudy and Post ","dir":"ltr","width":"146.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","123.97","88.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.96829986,"y":88.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","270.44","88.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.44229125,"y":88.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"). Full battery operation ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","290.44","88.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.44229125,"y":88.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"is more difficult to achieve in regional and long-distance buses and coaches, so the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","76.48"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":76.48018646} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.06","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","94.14","592.94"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":94.13880157,"y":592.93792724} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","141.96","570.33"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":141.96279907,"y":570.32995605} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.06","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","196.32","547.73"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":196.32279968,"y":547.72991943} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","244.15","597.46"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":244.14579772,"y":597.46228027} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","295.24","484.41"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":295.24169921,"y":484.41470336} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","346.33","516.07"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":346.32971191,"y":516.07067871} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","107.62","565.81"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":107.61769104,"y":565.81469726} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2.8","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","158.71","538.69"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":158.70570373,"y":538.68670654} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"2.6","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","209.80","529.64"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":209.80169677,"y":529.63867187} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","260.89","556.77"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":260.88970947,"y":556.76672363} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","311.99","470.85"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":311.98568725,"y":470.8467102} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","363.07","497.98"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":363.07369995,"y":497.98269653} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.06","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","70.47","405.61"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":70.46569824,"y":405.60668945} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"0.5","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","64.39","428.21"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":64.39369964,"y":428.21469116} 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{"page":194,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"4.06","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","70.47","541.25"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":70.46569824,"y":541.2546997} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"10.13","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","64.39","563.86"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":64.39369964,"y":563.8626709} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.06","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","70.47","586.48"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":70.46569824,"y":586.47869873} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"Gasoline","dir":"ltr","width":"28.07","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","90.42","397.66"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+NmmcwvTfgpnlFlpvwgCalibri","x":90.41519927,"y":397.65771484} 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2050","dir":"ltr","width":"283.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","89.93","377.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.93229675,"y":377.31021118} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":194,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"104.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"14 4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"uptake of full battery electric and also fuel-cell powertrains will be slower than in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"city buses. Diesel-powered buses will remain in the market longer, complemented ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"by diesel hybrid powertrains. Ultimately, fuel-cell-powered inter-urban coaches ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","318.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":318.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"will probably be more common than fuel-cell-powered city buses. In our model, we ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"divided the regions into ","dir":"ltr","width":"100.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"innovators","dir":"ltr","width":"42.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","154.68","294.52"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":154.67829895,"y":294.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":" (i.e., China and OECD countries) and all the ","dir":"ltr","width":"191.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.26","294.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.25830078,"y":294.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"other regions lagging behind the innovators. We also identified a clear trend towards ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"electrification.","dir":"ltr","width":"57.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"We project a 0.5% (diesel, diesel-hybrid and natural gas) to 0.8% (electric and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","258.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":258.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"fuel cell hydrogen electric) increase in efficiency on a per passenger per km basis in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"all three scenarios (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"96.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"6.15","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.23","234.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.228302,"y":234.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.73","234.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.728302,"y":234.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"6.3.3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.52"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":198.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Two- and Three-Wheel Vehicles","dir":"ltr","width":"135.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","198.52"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":198.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Two-wheel vehicles are probably the most important component of everyday traffic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"in large parts of Asia and Africa. The drivetrain efficiencies of e-scooters are ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"reported to be 1.2–3 kWh/100 vehicle–km. China is by far the biggest market for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"electric scooters in the world, with more than 200 million electric scooters on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"road by 2015, that translates to an electric share of about 70%.","dir":"ltr","width":"249.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","126.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":126.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Three-wheel vehicles (also country-specifically called ‘rickshaws’ or ‘tuk-tuks’) ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","114.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":114.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"have at least two, and usually three or more seats, and are often overloaded in daily ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","102.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":102.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"traffic. India alone is reported to have 2.5 million rickshaws on the road, each travel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","90.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":90.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","90.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":90.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"ling 70–150  km/day (Abu Mallouh et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","78.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":78.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"2010","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","230.20","78.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":230.20129394,"y":78.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"). Most three-wheel vehicles are ","dir":"ltr","width":"139.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.20","78.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.20129394,"y":78.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"fuelled by gasoline and some by liquid petroleum gas (LPG), although some com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","66.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":66.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","66.52"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328857,"y":66.51730346} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.51","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","90.49","568.40"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":90.48760223,"y":568.40228271} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.41","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","154.44","538.67"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":154.44238281,"y":538.6675415} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.61","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","214.39","598.14"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":214.38929748,"y":598.14361572} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.26","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","276.34","508.93"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":276.33529663,"y":508.92779541} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.43","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","338.28","538.67"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":338.28390502,"y":538.66973876} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.43","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","110.80","538.67"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":110.79514312,"y":538.66973876} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.34","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","172.74","508.93"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":172.74372863,"y":508.92779541} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.51","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","234.69","568.40"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":234.69230651,"y":568.40447998} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.20","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","296.64","479.20"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":296.64089965,"y":479.20019531} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.33","dir":"ltr","width":"12.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","358.59","508.93"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":358.58947753,"y":508.93496704} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.0","dir":"ltr","width":"9.07","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","62.57","413.61"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":62.57469177,"y":413.61178588} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.2","dir":"ltr","width":"9.07","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","62.57","473.09"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":62.57469177,"y":473.08847045} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.4","dir":"ltr","width":"9.07","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","62.57","532.56"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":62.57469177,"y":532.5579834} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"0.6","dir":"ltr","width":"9.07","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","62.57","592.03"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":62.57469177,"y":592.02746582} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Gasoline/Diesel","dir":"ltr","width":"45.53","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","84.13","406.08"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":84.12700653,"y":406.08139038} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Hybrid","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","158.34","406.08"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":158.3420868,"y":406.08139038} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"(Gasoline/Diesel","dir":"ltr","width":"47.70","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","143.89","397.48"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":143.89300537,"y":397.47671508} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.17","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","191.61","397.48"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":191.6118927,"y":397.47671508} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Natural Gas","dir":"ltr","width":"34.17","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","213.72","406.07"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":213.71929931,"y":406.07479858} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Electric","dir":"ltr","width":"21.31","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","282.09","406.07"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":282.09490966,"y":406.07479858} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Hydrogen","dir":"ltr","width":"28.45","height":"7.16","transform":["7.16","0.00","0.00","7.16","340.48","406.07"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":340.47531127,"y":406.07479858} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"MJ/pkm","dir":"ltr","width":"23.92","height":"7.16","transform":["0.00","7.16","-7.16","0.00","59.70","495.44"],"fontName":"CAJCWZ+SvyqmgTdqmvkTwxynnCalibri","x":59.7044983,"y":495.43969726} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 6.15","dir":"ltr","width":"30.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","377.35"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":377.34729003} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"Average global energy intensities of bus drivetrain technologies in 2015 (","dir":"ltr","width":"248.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","89.90","377.35"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.89830017,"y":377.34729003} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"left","dir":"ltr","width":"10.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.38","377.35"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":338.3788147,"y":377.34729003} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":") and 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"38.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","349.24","377.35"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.24179077,"y":377.34729003} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"(","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","367.35"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.35128784} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"right","dir":"ltr","width":"16.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","367.35"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":56.68880081,"y":367.35128784} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","73.22","367.35"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.22129821,"y":367.35128784} {"page":195,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83099365,"y":623.65319824} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"145","dir":"ltr","width":"11.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.40","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.40270996,"y":623.65332031} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"munities incentivize the conversion of two-stroke engines to battery electric three-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","460.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":460.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"wheel vehicles. Electric tuk-tuks are increasingly emerging in South-East Asia, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","448.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":448.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"together with battery swap stations and solar-powered rickshaws (Moran ","dir":"ltr","width":"308.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","436.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":436.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.73","436.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.72729492,"y":436.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"; ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.73","436.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.72729492,"y":436.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"Reddy et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"49.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","424.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":424.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.78","424.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.78230285,"y":424.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"). Thailand has announced that it plans to convert all existing two-","dir":"ltr","width":"261.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","123.78","424.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.78230285,"y":424.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"stroke-","dir":"ltr","width":"27.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","412.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":412.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"powered tuk-tuks to battery electric powertrains within 5  years (Coconuts ","dir":"ltr","width":"307.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.53","412.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.52829742,"y":412.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"Bangkok ","dir":"ltr","width":"38.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","400.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":400.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","92.98","400.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.978302,"y":400.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"). In India, too, plans are repeatedly announced to electrify all new ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","112.98","400.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":112.978302,"y":400.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"two- and three-wheel vehicles within the next two decades (Ghoshal ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","388.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":388.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","329.41","388.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.40631103,"y":388.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.41","388.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.40631103,"y":388.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency of battery electric drivetrains is much better than that of conven","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","376.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":376.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","376.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":376.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"tional two-stroke engines in two- and three-wheel vehicles (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"256.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","364.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":364.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"6.16","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","310.20","364.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":310.19830322,"y":364.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"). We project a ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.70","364.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.69830322,"y":364.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"0.5% annual increase in efficiency on a per pkm basis (the same for all drivetrains) ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","352.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":352.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"in all three scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"84.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":340.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"6.3.3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.23"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":304.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"Rail Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"63.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","304.23"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":304.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"No other transport mode is more suited to operate electrically than railways. Urban ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":280.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"rail systems, for instance, are invariably electric. Electric trains consume about ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":268.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"60–70% less energy than diesel trains when their final energy use is compared (on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":256.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"catenary and tank levels, respectively). According to the International Railway ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":244.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"Association, about 32% of the worldwide rail network was electrified in 2015 (UIC ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"). However, in terms of transport performance (pkm or tkm), the ratio of elec","dir":"ltr","width":"308.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","220.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":220.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","220.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":220.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"tric to diesel is higher because electrified rail lines usually experience more traffic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":208.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"than non-electrified lines. The electrification of rail lines with overhead catenaries ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"has been the state-of-the-art technology for decades and new lines are almost exclu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":184.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","184.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":184.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"sively equipped with overhead power lines right from the start.","dir":"ltr","width":"250.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":172.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"However, line electrification, especially of existing lines, is often difficult to ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","160.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":160.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"achieve due to unsettled and complex right-of-way issues, narrow tunnel diameters, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":148.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"or simply because line electrification is not economically viable due to low line ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":136.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"utilization. The use of on-board batteries for mixed electrified/non-electrified lines ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":124.23361206} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"and shunting operations and the use of fuel-cell hybrid powertrains for longer lines ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":112.2335968} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"with little or no electrification whatsoever could be feasible fully electric alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":100.2335968} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","100.23"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14730834,"y":100.2335968} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"tives to diesel power or full-line electrification. 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{"page":196,"change":"none","str":") and three-wheel vehicles ","dir":"ltr","width":"91.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","296.11","495.06"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.1074524,"y":495.06359863} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"(","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","485.07"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"right","dir":"ltr","width":"16.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","485.07"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":56.68880081,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":") by drivetrain technology in 2015 (","dir":"ltr","width":"121.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","73.22","485.07"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.22129821,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"left bar","dir":"ltr","width":"24.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","194.23","485.07"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":194.22729492,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":") and 2050 (","dir":"ltr","width":"41.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","219.02","485.07"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.0218048,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"right bar","dir":"ltr","width":"30.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.33","485.07"],"fontName":"VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","x":260.3317871,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","290.80","485.07"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.79580688,"y":485.06759643} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":196,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"104.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"146","dir":"ltr","width":"11.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"We project a 0.5% annual increase in efficiency on a per passenger per km basis ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","305.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":305.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"and a 0.8% annual increase in efficiency on a per tonne per km basis (the same for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","293.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":293.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"all drivetrains) in all three scenarios (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"167.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","281.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":281.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"6.17","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","221.21","281.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.20829772,"y":281.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.71","281.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.70829772,"y":281.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"The actual efficiency depends on the type of train and the world region. These ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","269.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":269.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"differences are considered in every transport sub-model and are exemplified in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","257.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":257.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","245.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":245.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"6.18","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.20","245.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":72.19830322,"y":245.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":" for freight and passenger trains.","dir":"ltr","width":"129.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.70","245.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.69830322,"y":245.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"6.3.3.6","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","209.62"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":209.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"Water and Air Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"107.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","209.62"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":209.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"Inland navigation will probably remain predominantly powered by ICE in the next ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","185.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":185.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"few decades. Therefore, we did not model the electrification of inland navigation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","173.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":173.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"vessels. However, pilot projects using diesel hybrids, batteries, and fuel cells are in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","161.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":161.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"preparation (DNV GL ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","149.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":149.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.99","149.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.9882965,"y":149.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"). We assumed the same increase in the share of bio- and ","dir":"ltr","width":"223.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","163.99","149.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.9882965,"y":149.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"synthetic fuels over time as in the road and rail sectors.","dir":"ltr","width":"219.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","137.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":137.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"In aviation, energy efficiency can be improved by measures such as winglets, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","125.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":125.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"advanced composite-based lightweight structures, powertrain hybridization, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","113.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":113.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"enhanced air traffic management systems (Madavan ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","101.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":101.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.76","101.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.75830078,"y":101.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"; Vyas et  al. 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We ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","363.43","101.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":363.4283142,"y":101.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"project a 1% annual increase in efficiency on a per pkm basis.","dir":"ltr","width":"247.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","89.62"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":89.61871337} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"0.31","dir":"ltr","width":"7.72","height":"4.35","transform":["4.35","0.00","0.00","4.35","79.18","585.72"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+LjqcspFtgfxfYpmpmjCalibri","x":79.17759704,"y":585.722229} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"0.38","dir":"ltr","width":"7.72","height":"4.35","transform":["4.35","0.00","0.00","4.35","108.05","598.41"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+LjqcspFtgfxfYpmpmjCalibri","x":108.04734802,"y":598.41149902} 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{"page":197,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","143.33","330.45"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.32929992,"y":330.45269775} {"page":197,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83099365,"y":623.65319824} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"147","dir":"ltr","width":"11.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.46","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.45800781,"y":623.65332031} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"6.3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","376.19"],"fontName":"JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":376.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"Replacement of Fossil Fuels by Biofuels and Synfuels","dir":"ltr","width":"266.18","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","376.19"],"fontName":"JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":376.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"The use of biofuels in the transport sector offers a potential lever to reduce the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","348.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":348.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","346.69"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":346.68930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"emissions from fossil fuels. Biofuels can be used either as a direct drop-in or as ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","336.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":336.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"admixtures to fossil fuels. Biofuels are widely used, especially in Latin America ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","324.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":324.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"(e.g., E85  in Brazil, a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline). Biofuels will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","312.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":312.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"replaced by synthetic fuels (synfuels) within the next few decades.","dir":"ltr","width":"265.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","300.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":300.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"In the three scenarios, we use region-specific shares of bio- and synfuels to ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","288.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":288.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"replace fossil fuels such as diesel, gasoline, and kerosene. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"269.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","276.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":276.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"6.19","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.30","276.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.30181884,"y":276.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":" shows the ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.80","276.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.80181884,"y":276.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"scenario-specific band-widths. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Latin America will increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","264.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":264.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"its proportion of bio- and synfuels to around 15%, whereas in the Middle East, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","252.19"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":252.18930053} {"page":198,"change":"none","str":"Mexico, and Eurasia will even not reach a 0.5% share by 2050. 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All shared-use mobility concepts have in common ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"that they reduce the vehicle stock and increase occupation rates on trips. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"102.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.03","345.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.03030395,"y":345.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"). Under these business models, innovative vehicle ","dir":"ltr","width":"213.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","176.03","345.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.03030395,"y":345.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"concepts are tested for suitability. 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Their modularity also allows them to connect to other ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"modes of transport, such as rail and air transport, and thus opens up fundamentally ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"new transport chains that are more energy efficient than traditional passenger car ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"usage. However, decision-makers and transport planners must consider the poten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","285.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":285.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"tially detrimental rebound effects of highly personalized automated mobility ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"(Pakusch et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.00","261.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":116.9953003,"y":261.15979003} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"). 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The tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","153.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":153.15977478} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"nology for partially automated trucks is already available and being tested to make ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"it widely available. In the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) automation level ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"3 (SAE ","dir":"ltr","width":"35.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.46","117.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.45829772,"y":117.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"), (multi-brand) truck platooning has become possible, which is a ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.46","117.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.45829772,"y":117.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"driver-assistance technology (Janssen et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"180.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.92","105.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.91830444,"y":105.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"). With communication between ","dir":"ltr","width":"135.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","253.92","105.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.91830444,"y":105.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"the first truck and the following trucks, the control of the following vehicles is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":199,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83099365,"y":623.65319824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"149","dir":"ltr","width":"11.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.34","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.34320068,"y":623.65332031} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"handed over to the leading vehicle. Thus, the following vehicles are driving in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"slipstream and lower air drag is achieved, which can reduce energy consumption by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"up to 5% (Daimler ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","131.07","573.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":131.06829833,"y":573.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","151.07","573.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":151.06829833,"y":573.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"In urban freight transport, last-mile delivery concepts based on light commercial ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"vehicles can help reduce fuel consumption. By fragmenting the transport routes into ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"the main leg and urban traffic (last mile), different vehicle types and modes can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"used more efficiently for specialized transport tasks. Like light commercial vehicles ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"(electric), cargo bikes could shape the urban freight traffic of the future as they do ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"already today in many countries in Asia.","dir":"ltr","width":"161.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"Further novel logistic concepts, such as the use of drones for delivery and decen","dir":"ltr","width":"316.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","489.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13729858,"y":489.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"tralized production using 3D printers, will help to reduce the overall transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"demand and thus energy consumption through more-efficient operational ","dir":"ltr","width":"339.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"solutions.","dir":"ltr","width":"38.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"6.4","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","409.16"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":409.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"Transport Performance","dir":"ltr","width":"120.87","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","409.16"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":409.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"We outline achievable 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenario paths that will allow us to achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"very ambitious emission reduction targets. The levels of pkm and tkm for every ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"world region in 2015 were calibrated against statistical data, the literature, and our ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"own estimates when concrete data were not available.","dir":"ltr","width":"214.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"To complement the anticipated technologically driven mode-inherent improve","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","333.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":333.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"ments in efficiency that we took as the input for our modelling in the previous sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","321.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16729736,"y":321.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"tions of this chapter, we now describe the scenario assumptions in terms of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"transport mode choices and transport demand. The main idea is to model low-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"emission pathways that shift from fossil-dependent, low-energy-efficiency modes ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"toward more-energy-efficient and electrified modes. We also look at the general ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"level of performance of transport modes and suggest region-specific development ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"pathways. We first outline the scenario-specific pkm and tkm pathways to 2050 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"then discuss the rationales for the mode choices that will result in the transport per","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","237.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":237.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"formance projections.","dir":"ltr","width":"87.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"For the 5.0 °C Scenario, we extrapolate current trends in transport performance ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"until 2050. In relative terms, the transport performance of all transport carriers will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"increase from current levels. Aviation, passenger car, and commercial road transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15979003} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"are particularly projected to grow strongly (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"6.20","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.51","177.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.50828552,"y":177.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"). These modes consume more ","dir":"ltr","width":"123.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","264.01","177.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.00830078,"y":177.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"energy than trains, ships, and buses, as discussed in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"241.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"6.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","295.71","165.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.70831298,"y":165.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":". Even if the full ","dir":"ltr","width":"73.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.71","165.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.70831298,"y":165.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"efficiency potential of these transport modes is realized, energy intensity per pkm or ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"tkm will remain higher than that of trains, ships, or buses.","dir":"ltr","width":"230.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario, we project a strong increase in rail ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"traffic (starting from a relatively low level) and a slower growth or even a reduction ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"in the use of the other modes in all world regions (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"6.21","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","272.94","105.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.93832397,"y":105.1597824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"). The next two sections ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","290.44","105.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":290.43832397,"y":105.1597824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"describe the specific changes and developments for each type of passenger and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"freight transport.","dir":"ltr","width":"67.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":200,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"104.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":"150","dir":"ltr","width":"12.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":"6.4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","190.46"],"fontName":"JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":190.45599365} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":"Passenger Transport Modes","dir":"ltr","width":"137.75","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","190.46"],"fontName":"JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":190.45599365} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":"To reduce transport-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"129.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.46"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.45599365} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","183.30","160.96"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.30169677,"y":160.95599365} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":" emissions, a shift towards low-energy-intensity ","dir":"ltr","width":"203.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","186.30","162.46"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.30169677,"y":162.45599365} {"page":201,"change":"none","str":"modes of transport is required for both ambitious climate-protection scenarios. 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A shift to small and medium cars and away ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","217.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":217.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"from larger cars and SUVs will also allow lower energy intensity. Whereas occu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","205.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":205.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"pancy rates remain steady for the passenger car sector in the 2.0 °C Scenario, in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario, we assume a significant increase in occupancy rates. Ultimately, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"pkm will stabilize, whereas vehicle–km (vkm) will decline in response to incentives ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"such as high-occupancy vehicle lanes and novel ride-sharing services.","dir":"ltr","width":"279.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","145.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":145.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"6.22","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.59","145.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.58830261,"y":145.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of pkm in all scenarios for sample world ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.09","145.30"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.08830261,"y":145.29541015} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"regions. 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{"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","175.26","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.26198574000006,"y":583.91882325} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","215.83","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.83249661000005,"y":583.91882325} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2035","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","252.05","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":252.05098721000007,"y":583.91882325} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","282.14","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.14098355000004,"y":583.91882325} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2045","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","318.36","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.35948941000004,"y":583.91882325} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","354.58","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":354.5779952600001,"y":583.91882325} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"52.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.33","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.32998272000007,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","119.33","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":119.33198544000007,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","147.30","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.29698941000007,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"0.5–0.75","dir":"ltr","width":"29.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","175.26","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.26198574000006,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"0.7–1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"25.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","215.83","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.83248135000005,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"1–1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"19.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","252.05","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":252.05098721000007,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"1.4–2.5","dir":"ltr","width":"25.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","282.14","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.14098355000004,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"1.9–3.8","dir":"ltr","width":"25.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","318.36","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.35948941000004,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2.7–5.7","dir":"ltr","width":"25.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","354.58","571.27"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":354.5779952600001,"y":571.2708129899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C 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{"page":202,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","215.83","559.44"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.83246609000005,"y":559.4388427799998} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","252.05","559.44"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":252.05097195000008,"y":559.4388427799998} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"8.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","282.14","559.44"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.14098355000004,"y":559.4388427799998} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"12","dir":"ltr","width":"8.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","318.36","559.44"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.35945889000004,"y":559.4388427799998} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"14","dir":"ltr","width":"8.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","354.58","559.44"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":354.57796475000004,"y":559.4388427799998} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"8.35","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","69.25","369.21"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":69.25199124000007,"y":369.2138977099999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"50%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.81","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","66.38","389.20"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":66.38284298000006,"y":389.2022705099999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"100%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.27","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","63.49","409.20"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":63.486373870000065,"y":409.2043151899999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"150%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.27","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","63.49","429.19"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":63.486373870000065,"y":429.1858825699999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"200%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.27","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","63.49","449.19"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":63.486373870000065,"y":449.1879272499999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"250%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.27","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","63.49","469.18"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":63.486373870000065,"y":469.1763000499999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"300%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.27","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","63.49","489.16"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":63.486373870000065,"y":489.1578674399999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"350%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.27","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","63.49","509.17"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":63.48739239000006,"y":509.16839600999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","73.40","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":73.40139004000007,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","116.02","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":116.01504514000007,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","158.63","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":158.62868496000007,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"OECD 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{"page":202,"change":"none","str":"USA","dir":"ltr","width":"11.30","height":"6.73","transform":["6.73","0.00","0.00","6.73","137.43","333.82"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":137.43195339000007,"y":333.8248901399999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","201.22","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":201.22199246000005,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2035","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","243.84","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":243.83563992000006,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","286.45","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":286.44927212000005,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2045","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","329.05","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":329.0492782200001,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"13.85","height":"6.83","transform":["6.83","0.00","0.00","6.83","371.66","360.43"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":371.65798184000005,"y":360.43481445999987} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"pkm-Evolution","dir":"ltr","width":"41.58","height":"6.83","transform":["0.00","6.83","-6.83","0.00","59.34","410.62"],"fontName":"UOIGOP+JytdppBddxblBrgdhsCalibri-Bold","x":59.33649060000006,"y":410.6238098199999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"2.0 ̊C","dir":"ltr","width":"14.26","height":"6.73","transform":["6.73","0.00","0.00","6.73","236.24","345.17"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":236.24298855000006,"y":345.1698913599999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"5.0 ̊C","dir":"ltr","width":"14.26","height":"6.73","transform":["6.73","0.00","0.00","6.73","191.95","345.17"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":191.94599148000006,"y":345.1698913599999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"1.5 ̊C","dir":"ltr","width":"14.26","height":"6.73","transform":["6.73","0.00","0.00","6.73","278.72","345.17"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+GmtklnGnyjddXmymcfCalibri","x":278.71999356000003,"y":345.1698913599999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 6.22","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.75","314.13"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.75199124000006,"y":314.1253967299999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"Regional pkm development","dir":"ltr","width":"93.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.29","314.13"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.29349514000006,"y":314.1253967299999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858291590000064,"y":623.6533203199999} {"page":202,"change":"none","str":"Transport Transition Concepts","dir":"ltr","width":"104.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829159000006,"y":623.6533203199999} {"page":203,"change":"none","str":"152","dir":"ltr","width":"12.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":203,"change":"none","str":"GDP.  As can be seen for the 1.5  °C Scenario, India, which represents a strongly 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{"page":205,"change":"none","str":"USA","dir":"ltr","width":"9.85","height":"5.86","transform":["5.86","0.00","0.00","5.86","155.96","146.73"],"fontName":"MPJKGF+PgjqykBfvwqnBjhcykCalibri","x":155.96220397,"y":146.73200227999993} {"page":205,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 6.27","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","52.91","126.59"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":52.9082985,"y":126.59450533999994} {"page":205,"change":"none","str":"Regional tkm development","dir":"ltr","width":"91.61","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","89.45","126.59"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.44979858,"y":126.59450533999994} {"page":205,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.83","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+ScfqpmVtrrvnJfwrpxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.83099365,"y":623.6532059} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"155","dir":"ltr","width":"12.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.19","623.65"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.19018554,"y":623.65332031} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"We modelled the shift from high-energy-intensity modes to low-energy-intensity ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","473.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":473.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"modes, especially from road to rail freight. This will require substantial investments ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","461.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":461.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"in additional rail infrastructure. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":449.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"6.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.92","449.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":205.91830444,"y":449.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":" shows the assumed global tkm shift from ","dir":"ltr","width":"169.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.42","449.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.41830444,"y":449.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"truck to train in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. Heavy freight trucks (HFT) are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":437.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"more likely to operate over long-haul distances, and are therefore more suitable for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","425.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":425.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"the shift to rail freight than light freight trucks (LFT) or medium freight trucks ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","413.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":413.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"(MFT). In the 2.0 °C Scenario, we assume an average shift of 18% for HFT, whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","401.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":401.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"in the 1.5 °C Scenario, the shift is projected to reach up to 27%. The ramp-","dir":"ltr","width":"310.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","389.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":389.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"up of ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","363.97","389.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":363.96829223,"y":389.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"shift potential is slow, because the provision of rail and terminal infrastructures and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","377.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":377.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"rolling stock will require considerable time.","dir":"ltr","width":"174.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","365.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":365.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"We modelled tkm for truck (road) and rail freight transport. In the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","353.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":353.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, transport activity is projected to increase clearly until 2050. In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","341.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":341.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenarios, this increase will be slower and the tkm on rail will exceed the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","329.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":329.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"road tkm in numbers by 2050 (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"142.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","317.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":317.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"6.28","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","196.08","317.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":196.07829284,"y":317.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","213.58","317.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.57829284,"y":317.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0 °C Scenario, road tkm will decrease in the OECD countries and stag","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","305.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":305.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","305.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":305.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"nate or increase slightly in China (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","293.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":293.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"6.29","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","208.93","293.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":208.92829895,"y":293.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"). Rail tkm is projected to increase in all ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.43","293.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.42829895,"y":293.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"other world regions (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"101.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","281.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":281.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"6.29","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","154.61","281.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.60830688,"y":281.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"). Rail tkm in China will temporarily decrease slightly ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","172.11","281.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":172.10830688,"y":281.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"because of an anticipated medium-term decline in coal transport (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","269.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":269.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"6.30","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.64","269.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.63830566,"y":269.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.14","269.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.13830566,"y":269.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"In 2015, rail’s share of total tkm differed between regions, but will increase in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","257.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":257.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario in all regions except India, where road tkm will increase more than ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","245.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":245.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"rail tkm (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","233.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":233.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"6.31","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.42","233.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.41829681,"y":233.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","126.92","233.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.91829681,"y":233.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"104.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","215.31"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":215.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"Our scenario modelling involves merging the transport performance for all modes ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","203.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":203.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"and powertrains with specific energy demands, and yields the accumulated demands ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","191.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":191.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"for electricity, hydrogen, gas, and liquid fuels across all world regions between 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","179.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":179.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"and 2050. The transport energy scenario results are outlined in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"278.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","167.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":167.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","332.06","167.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.05731201,"y":167.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","337.06","167.31"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.05731201,"y":167.31170654} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"Table 6.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"Global tkm shifts from truck to train in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios (in %)","dir":"ltr","width":"266.03","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.35","598.17"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.34629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","108.26","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.25559600000044,"y":583.9188299399999} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","141.09","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.09109861000047,"y":583.9188299399999} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","173.93","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.92659361000045,"y":583.9188299399999} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","206.76","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.76208860000042,"y":583.9188299399999} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2035","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","243.64","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.64358885000047,"y":583.9188299399999} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","280.53","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.52508910000046,"y":583.9188299399999} {"page":206,"change":"none","str":"2045","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","317.41","583.92"],"fontName":"CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.40658934000044,"y":583.9188299399999} 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"EBZFOL+XjtmfnGkkdqqWwbhkcTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_7","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 7","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Renewable Energy Resource Assessment","dir":"ltr","width":"276.40","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske, Kriti Nagrath, Tom Morris, and Kate Dooley","dir":"ltr","width":"243.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Literature overview of published global and regional renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.07","465.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.06829736999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"potential estimates. This section provides definitions for different types of RE ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"potentials and introduces a new category, the economic renewable energy potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"in space constrained environments. The potential for utility scale solar and onshore ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"wind in square kilometre and maximum possible installed capacity (in GW) are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"provided for 75 different regions. The results set the upper limits for the deployment ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"of solar- and wind technologies for the development of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"40.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":381.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"There is a wide range of estimates of global and regional renewable energy poten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":343.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","343.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13629054,"y":343.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"tials in the literature, and all conclude that the total global technical renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":331.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"energy potential is substantially higher than the current global energy demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":319.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"(IPCC/SRREN ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":307.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","116.78","307.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":116.77829645999998,"y":307.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"). Furthermore, the IPCC has concluded that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"193.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","136.78","307.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":136.77830408999998,"y":307.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"global techni","dir":"ltr","width":"52.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","330.00","307.14"],"fontName":"EBZFOL+XjtmfnGkkdqqWwbhkcTimesLTStd-Italic","x":329.99829005,"y":307.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","307.14"],"fontName":"EBZFOL+XjtmfnGkkdqqWwbhkcTimesLTStd-Italic","x":382.19830226,"y":307.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"cal renewable energy potential will not limit continued renewable energy growth","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.14"],"fontName":"EBZFOL+XjtmfnGkkdqqWwbhkcTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829828999998,"y":295.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"(IPCC/SRREN ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":283.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","116.60","283.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":116.59829614999998,"y":283.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"). However, the technical potential is also much higher than the ","dir":"ltr","width":"251.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","136.60","283.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":136.59829614999998,"y":283.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"sustainable potential, which is limited by factors such as land availability and other ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":271.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"resource constraints.","dir":"ltr","width":"82.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":259.13769531} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"This chapter provides an overview of various estimates of global renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","247.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829828999998,"y":247.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"energy (RE) potential. It also provides definitions of different types of RE potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":235.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"and presents mapping results for the spatial RE resource analysis (see Sect. 1.3 in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":223.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":211.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.69","211.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.68830011999998,"y":211.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":")—[R]E-SPACE. The [R]E-SPACE results provide the upper limit for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"303.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","85.69","211.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":85.68830011999998,"y":211.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"deployment of all solar and wind technologies used in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":199.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"41.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.14"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":187.13771057} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"33.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","145.82"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":145.82099914} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","87.25","145.82"],"fontName":"RFLFOL+YhsyhkHxlndjRrbbqvWingdings-Regular","x":87.25450037999998,"y":145.82099914} {"page":211,"change":"none","str":") · K. Nagrath · T. 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Renewable energy is ","dir":"ltr","width":"310.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","517.80"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":517.79779052} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"obtained from the continuing or repetitive flows of energy occurring in the natural environ","dir":"ltr","width":"304.87","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","507.80"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":507.80181884} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","370.73","507.80"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.7286377,"y":507.80181884} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"ment and includes low-carbon technologies such as solar energy, hydropower, wind, tide ","dir":"ltr","width":"310.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","497.81"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":497.80581665} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"and waves and ocean thermal energy, as well as renewable fuels such as biomass.”","dir":"ltr","width":"279.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","487.81"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":487.80981445} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"For the development of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, an additional renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"energy potential—the economic renewable energy potential in a space-constrained ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"environment (Sect. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"38.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","144.56","145.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.55830383,"y":145.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.45","145.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.44830322,"y":145.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":")—has been analysed and utilized in this study.","dir":"ltr","width":"188.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","188.45","145.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":188.44830322,"y":145.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"The theoretical and technical potentials of renewable energy are significantly ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","133.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":133.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"larger than the current global primary energy demand. 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There are many other limitations, which must be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":73.79379272} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"considered. One of the main constraints on deploying renewable energy tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","61.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":61.7937889} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","61.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":61.7937889} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"Different types of renewable energy potentials have been identified by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.94","455.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.94329833,"y":455.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU)—World in Transition: ","dir":"ltr","width":"311.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.94","443.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.94329833,"y":443.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"184.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.94","431.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.94329833,"y":431.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","249.58","431.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.57829284,"y":431.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":", page 44, published in ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","254.58","431.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.57829284,"y":431.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"2003","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","351.64","431.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":351.64331054,"y":431.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":": ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","371.64","431.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":371.64331054,"y":431.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"(WBGU ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.94","419.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.94329833,"y":419.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"2003","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","101.32","419.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.32330322,"y":419.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":") (Quote):","dir":"ltr","width":"39.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.32","419.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.32330322,"y":419.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"“Theoretical potential: The theoretical potential identifies the physical upper limit of ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","403.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":403.5476074200001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"the energy available from a certain source. For solar energy, for example, this would ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","393.55"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":393.55160522000006} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"be the total solar radiation falling on a particular surface. This potential does there","dir":"ltr","width":"282.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","383.56"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":383.55560302000004} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","359.63","383.56"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.62524414,"y":383.55560302000004} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"fore not take account of any restrictions on utilization, nor is the efficiency of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","373.56"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":373.55960083} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"conversion technologies considered.","dir":"ltr","width":"123.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","363.56"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":363.56359863} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"Conversion potential: The conversion potential is defined specifically for ","dir":"ltr","width":"277.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","88.95","353.57"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":88.94529724,"y":353.56759643} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"each technology and is derived from the theoretical potential and the annual effi","dir":"ltr","width":"282.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","343.57"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":343.57162475000007} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","359.64","343.57"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.6362915,"y":343.57162475000007} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"ciency of the respective conversion technology. The conversion potential is ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.87","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","333.58"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":333.57562255000005} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"therefore not a strictly defined value, since the efficiency of a particular technol","dir":"ltr","width":"282.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","323.58"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":323.57962036000004} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","359.64","323.58"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.6362915,"y":323.57962036000004} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"ogy depends on technological progress.","dir":"ltr","width":"140.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.94","313.58"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.94329833,"y":313.58361816} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"Technological potential: The technological potential is derived from the conver","dir":"ltr","width":"270.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","88.95","303.59"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":88.94529724,"y":303.58761596} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","359.60","303.59"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.60229492,"y":303.58761596} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"sion potential, taking account of additional restrictions regarding the area that is real","dir":"ltr","width":"282.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","293.59"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":293.59161376} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","359.57","293.59"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.56829833,"y":293.59161376} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"istically available for energy generation. [...] like the conversion potential, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","283.60"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":283.5956115700001} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"technological potential of the different energy sources is therefore not a strictly ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","273.60"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":273.59960937000005} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"defined value but depends on numerous boundary conditions and assumptions.","dir":"ltr","width":"266.87","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","263.60"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":263.60360717000003} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"Economic potential: This potential identifies the proportion of the technological ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","88.95","253.61"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":88.95379638,"y":253.60760498000002} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"potential that can be utilized economically, based on economic boundary conditions ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","243.61"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":243.61160278000003} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"at a certain time [...].","dir":"ltr","width":"72.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","233.62"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":233.61561584000003} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"Sustainable potential: This potential of an energy source covers all aspects of ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","88.95","223.62"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":88.95379638,"y":223.61961364000004} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"sustainability, which usually requires careful consideration and evaluation of differ","dir":"ltr","width":"282.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","213.62"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":213.62361145000003} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","359.60","213.62"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.60229492,"y":213.62361145000003} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"ent ecological and socio-economic aspects [...].” (END Quote)","dir":"ltr","width":"214.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","76.95","203.63"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.95179748,"y":203.62760925000003} {"page":212,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+BpnvdgPfhxhdXmrctkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"163","dir":"ltr","width":"11.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.28","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.28289794,"y":623.65332031} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"nologies is the available space, especially in densely populated areas where there ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","412.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":412.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"are competing claims on land use, such as agriculture and nature conservation, to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","400.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":400.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"name just two.","dir":"ltr","width":"60.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","388.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":388.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"It is neither necessary nor desirable to exploit the entire technical potential. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","376.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":376.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"implementation of renewable energy must respect sustainability criteria to achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","364.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":364.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"a sound future energy supply. Public acceptance is crucial, especially because the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","352.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":352.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"decentralised character of many renewable energy technologies will move systems ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":340.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"closer to consumers. Without public acceptance, market expansion will be difficult ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":328.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"or even impossible (Teske and Pregger ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":316.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","216.27","316.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":216.26730346,"y":316.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"). The energy policy framework in a ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.27","316.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.26730346,"y":316.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"particular country or region will have a profound impact on the expansion of renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":304.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","304.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20629882,"y":304.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"ables, in terms of both the economic situation and the social acceptance of renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":292.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","292.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22229003,"y":292.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"able energy projects.","dir":"ltr","width":"82.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":280.09381103} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"7.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","236.09"],"fontName":"QGBZAN+YwbvtqSkgyfxTlwlybTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":236.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"Bioenergy","dir":"ltr","width":"50.66","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","236.09"],"fontName":"QGBZAN+YwbvtqSkgyfxTlwlybTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":236.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"The discrepancy between the technical potential for bioenergy and the likely sus","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":208.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","208.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22229003,"y":208.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"tainable potential raises some issues that warrant further discussion. Recent analy","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","196.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18429565,"y":196.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"ses put the technical potential for primary bioenergy supply at 100–300 EJ/year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":184.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"(GEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":172.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.00","172.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.99829864,"y":172.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"; Smith et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"52.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.00","172.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.99829864,"y":172.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","152.66","172.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.65530395,"y":172.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"). However, the dedicated use of land for bioenergy—","dir":"ltr","width":"212.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","172.66","172.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":172.65530395,"y":172.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"whether through energy crops or the harvest of forest biomass—raises concerns ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","160.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":160.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"over competition for land and the carbon neutrality of bioenergy (Field and Mach ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":148.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":136.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"; Searchinger et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"82.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","136.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":136.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.42","136.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.41529846,"y":136.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"). Research that focused on the trade-offs between ","dir":"ltr","width":"212.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","176.42","136.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.41529846,"y":136.09379577} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"bioenergy production, food security, and biodiversity found that less than 100 EJ /","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":124.09378814} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"year. could be produced sustainably (Boysen et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":112.09378814} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","253.54","112.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.54029846,"y":112.09378814} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"; Heck et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"49.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.54","112.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.54031372,"y":112.09378814} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","322.60","112.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.60128784,"y":112.09378814} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"), although ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.60","112.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.60128784,"y":112.09378814} {"page":213,"change":"none","str":"such production levels would be dependent on strong global land governance sys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.09"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":100.09378814} 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Booth ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","329.87","477.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.87060546,"y":477.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.50","477.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.50061035,"y":477.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"; ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.74","477.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.74060058,"y":477.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"Schlesinger ","dir":"ltr","width":"49.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":465.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.74","465.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.74060058,"y":465.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","123.98","465.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.98059844,"y":465.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"Bioenergy sourced from wastes and residues rather than harvested from dedi","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86060333,"y":453.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","453.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22061157,"y":453.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"cated land can be considered carbon neutral, because of the ‘carbon opportunity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":441.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"cost’ per hectare of land (i.e., bioenergy production reduces the carbon-carrying ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":429.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"capacity of land) (Searchinger et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":417.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.02","417.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.0205841,"y":417.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"). The supply of waste and residues as ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.62","417.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.6205902,"y":417.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"a bioenergy source is always inherently limited (Miyake et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"263.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":405.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","317.41","405.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":317.4065857,"y":405.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"). Although ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","338.01","405.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.0065918,"y":405.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"in some cases, burning residues can still release more emissions into the atmo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":393.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","393.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16061401,"y":393.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"sphere in the mid-term (20–40 years) than allowing them to decay (Booth ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":381.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","358.95","381.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":358.94958496,"y":381.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"), ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.55","381.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.54959106,"y":381.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"there is general agreement that specific and limited waste materials from the for","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":369.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","369.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18060302,"y":369.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"est industry (for example, black liquor or sawdust) can be used with beneficial ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":357.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"climate effects (EASAC ","dir":"ltr","width":"103.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":345.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","157.80","345.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":157.80059814,"y":345.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"). The use of secondary residues (cascade utiliza","dir":"ltr","width":"203.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","178.40","345.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.40060424,"y":345.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","345.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19958496,"y":345.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"tion) may reduce the logistical costs and trade-offs associated with waste use ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":333.15979003} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"(Smith et al. 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The use of land for nature conservation, agricultural pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","235.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1402893,"y":235.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"duction, residential areas, and industry, as well as for infrastructure, such as roads ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"and all aspects of human settlements, limits the amount of land available land for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"utility-scale solar and wind projects. Furthermore, solar and wind generation require ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"favourable climatic conditions, so not all available areas are suitable for renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"power generation. To assess the renewable energy potential of the available area, all ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"ten world regions defined in Table 8 in Sect. 1 of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"218.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","272.25","163.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.25030517,"y":163.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":" were analysed with the [R]","dir":"ltr","width":"108.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","277.25","163.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":277.25030517,"y":163.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"E-SPACE methodology described in Sect. 3 of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"214.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","268.64","151.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":268.63830566,"y":151.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.64","151.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.63830566,"y":151.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"Given the issues involved in dedicated land-use for bioenergy outlined above, we ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","139.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":139.1598053} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"assume that bioenergy is sourced primarily from cascading residue use and wastes, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"and do not analyse the availability of land for dedicated bioenergy crops.","dir":"ltr","width":"290.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.15979766} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"This analysis quantifies the available land area (in square kilometres) in all ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","103.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":103.15979766} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"regions and sub-regions with a defined set of constraints.","dir":"ltr","width":"227.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.15979766} {"page":214,"change":"none","str":"S. 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{"page":215,"change":"none","str":"Plants","dir":"ltr","width":"31.34","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","581.79"],"fontName":"QGBZAN+YwbvtqSkgyfxTlwlybTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":581.78979492} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"The following land-use areas were excluded from the deployment of utility-scale ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","553.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":553.79382324} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power plants:","dir":"ltr","width":"242.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","541.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":541.79382324} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","523.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":523.79382324} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"Residential and urban settlements;","dir":"ltr","width":"137.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","523.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":523.79382324} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","511.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":511.79382324} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"Infrastructure for transport (e.g., rail, 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{"page":215,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.83","451.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.82829284,"y":451.79382324} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"7.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","407.79"],"fontName":"QGBZAN+YwbvtqSkgyfxTlwlybTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":407.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"Mapping Solar and Wind Potential","dir":"ltr","width":"172.27","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","407.79"],"fontName":"QGBZAN+YwbvtqSkgyfxTlwlybTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":407.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"After the spatial analysis, the remaining available land areas were analysed for their ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","379.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":379.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"solar and wind resources. 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Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"57.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","263.50","307.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":263.50289916,"y":307.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"7.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","322.42","307.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.41992187,"y":307.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":" provides an ","dir":"ltr","width":"54.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.92","307.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.91992187,"y":307.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"example of the electricity infrastructure in Africa. These maps provide important ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":295.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"insights into the current situation in the power sector, especially the availability of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":283.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"transmission grids. This is of particular interest for developing countries because it ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":271.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"allows a comparison of the available land areas that have favourable solar and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":259.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"conditions with the infrastructure available to transport electricity to the demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":247.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"centres. This assessment is less important for OECD regions because the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":235.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"infrastructure is usually already fairly evenly distributed across the country—except ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":223.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"in some parts of Canada, the United States, and Australia. For some countries, cov","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":211.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","211.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17190551,"y":211.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"erage is not 100% complete due to a lack of public data sources. This is particularly ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":199.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"true for renewable energy generation assets such as solar, wind, biomass, geother","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":187.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","187.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17990112,"y":187.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"mal energy, and hydropower resources.","dir":"ltr","width":"156.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":175.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","163.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85990905,"y":163.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"7.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.46","163.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.45990753,"y":163.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":" shows the solar potential for utility-scale solar power plants—both ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.96","163.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.95990753,"y":163.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"solar PV and concentrated solar power—in Africa. The scale from light yellow to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":151.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"dark red shows the solar radiation intensity: the darker the area, the better the solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":139.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"resource. The green lines show existing transmission lines. All areas that are not ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":127.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"yellow or red are unsuitable for utility-scale solar because there is conflicting land ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":115.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"use and/or there are no suitable solar resources. Africa provides a very extreme ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":103.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"example of very good solar resources far from existing infrastructure. While ","dir":"ltr","width":"298.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990905,"y":91.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"roof-","dir":"ltr","width":"19.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.74","91.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.73989868,"y":91.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"top ","dir":"ltr","width":"14.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","372.73","91.79"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.72991943,"y":91.79379272} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"7","dir":"ltr","width":"4.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":215,"change":"none","str":"Renewable Energy Resource Assessment","dir":"ltr","width":"141.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"166","dir":"ltr","width":"11.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 7.2","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","67.77"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":67.76560211} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"Solar potential in Africa","dir":"ltr","width":"81.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.15","67.77"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.14980316,"y":67.76560211} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 7.1","dir":"ltr","width":"26.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","348.74"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83179855,"y":348.73928833} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"Electricity infrastructure in Africa—power plants (over 1 MW) and high-voltage trans","dir":"ltr","width":"296.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.53","348.74"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.5313034,"y":348.73928833} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","382.68","348.74"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.68234252,"y":348.73928833} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"mission lines","dir":"ltr","width":"44.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","338.74"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.83179855,"y":338.74328613} {"page":216,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+BpnvdgPfhxhdXmrctkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"167","dir":"ltr","width":"11.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.38","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.3822937,"y":623.65332031} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"solar PV can be deployed virtually anywhere and only needs roof space on any sort ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"of building, bulk power supply via solar—to produce synthetic and hydrogen ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"fuels—requires a certain minimum of utility-scale solar applications. The vast solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"potential in the north of Africa—as well as in the Middle East—has been earmarked ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"for the production of synthetic and hydrogen fuels and for the export of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"electricity (via sub-sea cable) to Europe in the long-term energy scenarios in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"114.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Europe, in contrast, is densely populated and has fewer favourable utility-scale ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"solar sites because of both its lower solar radiation and conflicting land-use patterns. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"7.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.25","489.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.24829864,"y":489.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":" shows Europe’s potential for utility-scale solar power plants. Only the ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.75","489.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.74829864,"y":489.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"yellow and red dots across Europe, most visible in the south of Spain, south of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Alps, south-west Italy, and the Asian part of Turkey, mark regions suitable for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"utility-","dir":"ltr","width":"27.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"scale solar, whereas roof-top solar can be deployed economically across ","dir":"ltr","width":"308.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.09","453.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.08830261,"y":453.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Europe, including Scandinavia.","dir":"ltr","width":"125.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"However, Africa and Europe are in a good position, from a technical point of ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"view, to form an economic partnership for solar energy exchange.","dir":"ltr","width":"262.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"The situation for onshore wind power differs from that for solar energy. The best ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"potential is in areas that are more than 30° north and south of the equator, whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"the actual equatorial zone is less suitable for wind installation. North America has ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"significant wind resources and the resource is still largely untapped, even though ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"there is already a mature wind industry in Canada and the USA. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"7.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","345.39","357.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.38830566,"y":357.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":" shows ","dir":"ltr","width":"30.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","357.89","357.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.88830566,"y":357.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"the existing and potential wind power sites. While significant wind power ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 7.3","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","69.15"],"fontName":"YSCVIX+JkwjxdHrklctCdhgywTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83179855,"y":69.15200042} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Europe’s potential for utility-scale solar power plants","dir":"ltr","width":"180.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.12","69.15"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.12329864,"y":69.15200042} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"7","dir":"ltr","width":"4.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8572998,"y":623.64953613} {"page":217,"change":"none","str":"Renewable Energy Resource Assessment","dir":"ltr","width":"141.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6072998,"y":623.64953613} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"168","dir":"ltr","width":"11.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"installations are already in operation, mainly in the USA, there are still very large ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","326.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":326.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"untapped resources across the entire north American continent, in Canada and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","314.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":314.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"mid-west of the USA.","dir":"ltr","width":"87.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","302.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":302.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"Unlike the situation in the USA, wind power in Latin America is still in its initial ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.88","290.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.88469696,"y":290.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"stages and the industry, which has great potential, is still in its infancy. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"318.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","278.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":278.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"7.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","373.03","278.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.03469848,"y":278.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"shows the existing wind farm locations—marked with blue dots—and the potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","266.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":266.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"wind farm sites, especially in coastal regions and the entire southern parts of ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","254.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":254.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"Argentina and Chile.","dir":"ltr","width":"83.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","242.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":242.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"The available solar and wind potentials are distributed differently across all ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.88","230.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.88469696,"y":230.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"world regions. Whereas some regions have significantly more resources than others, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","218.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":218.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"all regions have enough potential to supply their demand with local solar and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","206.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":206.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"resources—together with other renewable energy resources, such as hydro-, bio-, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","194.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":194.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"and geothermal energies.","dir":"ltr","width":"100.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.88","182.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88470077,"y":182.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.88","170.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.88469696,"y":170.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":"7.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.86","170.67"],"fontName":"PUOYMP+MvlhfjYrxffwDbwglxTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.86470031,"y":170.66931152} {"page":218,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the key results of the [R]E-SPACE analysis. 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_8","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 8","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"166.94","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Tobias Naegler, Sonja Simon, ","dir":"ltr","width":"252.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","540.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":540.02770996} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, and Özcan Deniz","dir":"ltr","width":"248.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","528.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":528.02770996} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Results for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for ten world regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"290.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.07","453.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.06829736999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transport- ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"and heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","417.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831202,"y":417.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"vided. The key results of a power sector analysis which simulates further electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"supply with high shares of solar- and wind power in one hour steps is provided. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"ten world regions are divided into eight sub-regions and the expected development ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":381.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"of loads, capacity-factors for various power plant types and storage demands are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":369.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"provided. This chapter contains more than 100 figures and tables.","dir":"ltr","width":"261.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":357.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"This chapter provides a condensed description of the energy scenario results on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":321.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"global scale, for each of the ten world regions. The descriptions include a presenta","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":309.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","309.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13229273999997,"y":309.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"tion of the calculated energy demands for all sectors (power and heat/fuels for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":297.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"following sectors: industry, residential and other, and transport) and of supply strat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":285.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","285.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828394999995,"y":285.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"egies for all the technologies considered, from 2015 to 2050. The results of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":273.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"model-based analyses of hourly supply curves and required storage capacities are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":261.13769531} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"also discussed based on key indicators. Graphs, tables, and descriptions are pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":249.13771057} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","249.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831202,"y":249.13771057} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"vided in a standardized way to facilitate comparisons between scenarios and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":237.13771057} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"between regions.","dir":"ltr","width":"67.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.14"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":225.13771057} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"33.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","190.82"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":190.82099914} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","87.25","190.82"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+KpjkffPrgygqCpychxWingdings-Regular","x":87.25450037999998,"y":190.82099914} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","95.75","190.82"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.74690149999998,"y":190.82099914} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","180.82"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":180.82499694} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","170.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":170.82899475} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":" sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","170.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93939874999998,"y":170.82899475} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"T. Pregger · T. Naegler · S. Simon ","dir":"ltr","width":"116.61","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","155.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":155.82650756} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Department of Energy Systems Analysis, German Aerospace Center (DLR), ","dir":"ltr","width":"262.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","145.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":145.83050537} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Engineering Thermodynamics (TT), Pfaffenwaldring, Germany","dir":"ltr","width":"258.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","135.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":135.83450317} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","125.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":125.83850097} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":" thomas.pregger@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"81.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","125.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93939874999998,"y":125.83850097} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","159.53","125.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.53089808,"y":125.83850097} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":" tobias.naegler@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"76.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","161.89","125.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.89390466999998,"y":125.83850097} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","238.29","125.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.29189966999996,"y":125.83850097} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":" sonja.simon@dlr.de","dir":"ltr","width":"69.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","240.65","125.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.65490626,"y":125.83850097} {"page":224,"change":"none","str":"J. Pagenkopf · B. van den Adel · Ö. 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Consistent with the regional results, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"these tables do not include the demand and supply details for the bunker fuels used ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"in international aviation and navigation. Section ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"8.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.94","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.93829345,"y":561.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":" outlines a global demand and ","dir":"ltr","width":"125.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","263.44","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":263.43829345,"y":561.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"supply scenario for renewable bunker fuels in the long term, including estimates of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"additional CO","dir":"ltr","width":"56.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","110.25","535.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.24770355,"y":535.65979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":" emissions from fossil bunker fuels between 2015 and 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"240.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.25","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.24770355,"y":537.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"8.1","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","493.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Global: Long-Term Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"192.32","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","493.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"8.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","467.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":467.15579223} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Global: Projection of Overall Energy Intensity","dir":"ltr","width":"229.49","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","467.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":467.15579223} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Combining the assumptions for the power, heat, and fuel demands for all sectors ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","439.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":439.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"produced the overall final energy intensity (per $ GDP) development shown in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","427.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":427.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","415.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":415.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"8.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.44","415.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":72.43830108,"y":415.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":". Compared with the 5.0 °C case based on the Current Policies Scenario of ","dir":"ltr","width":"303.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","84.91","415.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.9083023,"y":415.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"the IEA, the alternative scenarios follow more stringent efficiency levels. The 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","403.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":403.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Scenario represents an even faster implementation of efficiency measures than the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","391.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":391.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C Scenario. 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The global average intensity drops from 2.4  MJ/$GDP in 2015 to ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"1.25  MJ/$GDP in 2050  in the 5.0  °C case compared with 0.65  MJ/$GDP in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.15979003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and 0.59 MJ/$GDP in the 1.5 °C Scenario. 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{"page":225,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"5.05","height":"6.99","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","6.99","183.12","89.68"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BpjqmsKpnhmpYtdqvcArial-BoldMT","x":183.12327957,"y":89.67630004000003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"1.5°","dir":"ltr","width":"12.44","height":"6.99","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","6.99","283.12","89.68"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BpjqmsKpnhmpYtdqvcArial-BoldMT","x":283.121315,"y":89.67630004000003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"5.05","height":"6.99","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","6.99","295.61","89.68"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BpjqmsKpnhmpYtdqvcArial-BoldMT","x":295.61005401,"y":89.67630004000003} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.1","dir":"ltr","width":"26.55","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85830687999997,"y":69.15200042000002} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"Global: projection of final energy (per $ GDP) intensity by scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"230.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.15","69.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.14981078999998,"y":69.15200042000002} {"page":225,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009917999995,"y":623.65332031} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"177","dir":"ltr","width":"11.70","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.31","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.31350708,"y":623.65332031} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"8.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"Global: Final Energy Demand by Sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"202.86","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","595.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"(Excluding Bunkers)","dir":"ltr","width":"103.99","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","581.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":581.78979492} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"Combining the assumptions for population growth, GDP growth, and energy inten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","553.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":553.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","553.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":553.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"sity produced the future development pathways for the global final energy demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","541.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":541.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","529.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":529.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"8.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.05","529.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.0483017,"y":529.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":" for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.55","529.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.5483017,"y":529.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"the total final energy demand will increase by 57% from 342 EJ/year in 2015 to 537 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","517.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":517.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"EJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final energy demand will decrease by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","505.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":505.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"19% compared with the current consumption and reach 278  EJ/year by 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","493.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":493.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"whereas the final energy demand in the 1.5  °C Scenario will reach 253 EJ, 26% ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","481.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":481.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"below the 2015 demand. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the final energy demand in 2050 is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","469.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":469.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"9% lower than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. The electricity demand for ‘classical’ electri","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","457.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":457.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","457.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21429443,"y":457.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"cal devices (without power-to-heat or e-mobility) will increase from around ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","445.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":445.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"15,900  TWh/year in 2015 to 23,800 TWh/year (2.0  °C) or to 23,300  TWh/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","433.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":433.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"(1.5 °C) by 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (37,000 TWh/year in 2050), the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","421.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":421.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will save 13,200 TWh/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","409.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":409.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"and 13,700 TWh/year, respectively, by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"179.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","397.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":397.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","385.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":385.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be about ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","373.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":373.79382324} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":" 0","dir":"ltr","width":"5.84","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","87.24","137.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":87.24299621,"y":137.82719421} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"100,000","dir":"ltr","width":"25.29","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","67.79","172.44"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":67.79244995,"y":172.4421997} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"200,000","dir":"ltr","width":"25.29","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","67.79","207.05"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":67.79244995,"y":207.05018615} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"300,000","dir":"ltr","width":"25.29","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","67.79","241.66"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":67.79244995,"y":241.65818786} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"400,000","dir":"ltr","width":"25.29","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","67.79","276.27"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":67.79244995,"y":276.27319335} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"500,000","dir":"ltr","width":"25.29","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","67.79","310.87"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":67.79244995,"y":310.87417602} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"600,000","dir":"ltr","width":"25.29","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","67.79","345.49"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":67.79239654,"y":345.48730468} 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{"page":226,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"15.56","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","184.44","109.81"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":184.4419403,"y":109.80919647} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"15.56","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","241.56","109.81"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":241.56217956,"y":109.80919647} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"15.56","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","298.68","109.81"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":298.68243408,"y":109.80919647} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"15.56","height":"7.00","transform":["7.00","0.00","0.00","7.00","355.80","109.81"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":355.80267333,"y":109.80919647} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"PJ/yr","dir":"ltr","width":"21.54","height":"8.80","transform":["0.00","8.80","-8.80","0.00","61.41","232.62"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":61.40850067,"y":232.61920166} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"Demand reduction (compared to 5.0","dir":"ltr","width":"133.37","height":"7.82","transform":["7.82","0.00","0.00","7.82","121.59","94.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":121.59120178,"y":94.3682022} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"°","dir":"ltr","width":"3.13","height":"7.82","transform":["7.82","0.00","0.00","7.82","254.96","94.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":254.96420288,"y":94.3682022} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"C)","dir":"ltr","width":"8.25","height":"7.82","transform":["7.82","0.00","0.00","7.82","258.09","94.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FlcxkgKyjpvhYwdvldArialBold","x":258.0913086,"y":94.3682022} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"Residential & other 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(without non-","dir":"ltr","width":"299.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.35","63.40"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.34529876,"y":63.40200042} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"energy use or heat from combined heat and power [CHP] autoproducers)","dir":"ltr","width":"247.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","53.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":53.40599822} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":226,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"178","dir":"ltr","width":"11.57","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"12,600 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"there will be an increase of about 23,400 TWh/year due to increased electric mobil","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} 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The generation of hydrogen (for transport and high-temperature process heat) ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"and the manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly for transport) will add an additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"power demand of 18,800 TWh/year The gross power demand will thus rise from ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"24,300 TWh/year in 2015 to 65,900 TWh/year in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario, 34% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":227,"change":"none","str":"higher than in the 5.0 °C case. 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From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and photovoltaic ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","392.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":392.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"(PV), up to 7850 GW and 12,300 GW, respectively, will be complemented by up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","380.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":380.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"2060 GW of solar thermal generation, and limited biomass, geothermal, and ocean ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","368.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":368.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"energy in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","356.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":356.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"lead to a high proportion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","344.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":344.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"38% and 46%, respectively, by 2030 and 64% and 65%, respectively, by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"313.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","332.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":332.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"8.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","288.96"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":288.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"Global: Future Costs of Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"230.35","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","288.96"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":288.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","260.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":260.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"8.8","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.73","260.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.728302,"y":260.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.23","260.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.228302,"y":260.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"109.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","248.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":248.9637146} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","163.77","247.46"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.7698059,"y":247.46369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated average ","dir":"ltr","width":"220.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","166.77","248.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":166.7698059,"y":248.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"electricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 6 ct/kWh. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","236.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":236.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","224.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":224.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"10.6 ct/kWh. The generation costs will also increase in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","212.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":212.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios until 2030, when they will reach 9 ct/kWh, and then drop to 7 ct/kWh by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","200.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":200.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"2050. In both alternative scenarios, the generation costs will be around 3.5 ct/kWh ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","188.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":188.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 2050. Note that these estimates of generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","176.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":176.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"costs do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","164.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":164.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","164.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17980957,"y":164.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"age, or other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"154.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","152.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":152.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","140.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85980224,"y":140.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"cause the total electricity supply costs to increase from today’s $1560 billion/year to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","128.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":128.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"around $5500 billion/year in 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the total supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","116.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":116.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"costs will be $5050 billion/year in 2050. Therefore, the long-term costs for electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","104.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":104.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","104.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21679687,"y":104.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"ity supply in both alternative scenarios are about 8% lower than in the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","92.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":92.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the electrification of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","80.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":80.96369934} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"heating and mobility.","dir":"ltr","width":"84.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","68.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":68.96369171} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":" 0","dir":"ltr","width":"5.67","height":"6.80","transform":["6.80","0.00","0.00","6.80","80.55","472.47"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LyclgxKfbhcrQxgypjArialBold","x":80.54720306,"y":472.46688842} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"10,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.79","height":"6.80","transform":["6.80","0.00","0.00","6.80","65.54","490.42"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LyclgxKfbhcrQxgypjArialBold","x":65.54136657,"y":490.41677856} 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{"page":230,"change":"none","str":"60,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.79","height":"6.80","transform":["6.80","0.00","0.00","6.80","65.54","580.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LyclgxKfbhcrQxgypjArialBold","x":65.54136657,"y":580.20019531} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"70,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.79","height":"6.80","transform":["6.80","0.00","0.00","6.80","65.54","598.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LyclgxKfbhcrQxgypjArialBold","x":65.54090118,"y":598.15637207} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.08","height":"6.80","transform":["0.00","6.80","-6.80","0.00","105.84","453.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LyclgxKfbhcrQxgypjArialBold","x":105.83580017,"y":453.10089111} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.08","height":"6.80","transform":["0.00","6.80","-6.80","0.00","120.10","453.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LyclgxKfbhcrQxgypjArialBold","x":120.10050201,"y":453.10198974} 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{"page":230,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":230,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"182","dir":"ltr","width":"11.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs (without including CO","dir":"ltr","width":"291.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","336.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":336.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","357.71","335.09"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.70739746,"y":335.08758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"21.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.71","336.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.70739746,"y":336.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","336.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18240356,"y":336.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"sion costs) will increase in the 5.0 °C case to only 7.9 ct/kWh. The generation costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","324.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":324.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"will increase in the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030 to 7.7 ct/kWh and to a maximum of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","312.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":312.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"8.1 ct/kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario. Between 2030 and 2050, the costs will decrease ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","300.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":300.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"to 7 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the generation costs will be, at maximum, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","288.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":288.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"0.1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C Scenario and this will occur in 2040. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","276.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":276.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario, the generation costs will be, at maximum, 0.5 ct/kWh higher than ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","264.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":264.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"in the 5.0 °C Scenario, again by around 2040. In 2050, the generation costs in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","252.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":252.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios will be 0.8–0.9 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. If the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","240.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":240.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","228.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":228.58758544} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","227.09"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":227.0876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":" costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","228.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":228.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"rise to about $4150 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"160.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","216.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":216.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"8.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","172.59"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":172.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Global: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"235.62","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","172.59"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":172.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0  °C Scenario, around $49,000 billion in investment will be required for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","144.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":144.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"power generation between 2015 and 2050—including for additional power plants to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","132.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":132.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels and for the plant replacement costs at the end ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","120.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":120.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"of their economic lifetimes. This value will be equivalent to approximately $1360 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","108.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":108.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"billion per year on average, and is $28,600 billion more than in the 5.0  °C case ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","96.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":96.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"($20,400 billion). An investment of around $51,000 billion for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","84.59"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":84.5876007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. 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{"page":231,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.69","height":"8.28","transform":["8.28","0.00","0.00","8.28","76.20","417.13"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwpthjTbvnfcHnvwxmCalibri","x":76.1977017,"y":417.12811246000007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"86.14","height":"8.28","transform":["8.28","0.00","0.00","8.28","246.81","417.13"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwpthjTbvnfcHnvwxmCalibri","x":246.80679441,"y":417.12811246000007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.69","height":"8.28","transform":["8.28","0.00","0.00","8.28","246.81","404.46"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwpthjTbvnfcHnvwxmCalibri","x":246.80679441,"y":404.4610897400001} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"132.11","height":"8.28","transform":["8.28","0.00","0.00","8.28","76.20","404.21"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwpthjTbvnfcHnvwxmCalibri","x":76.1977017,"y":404.2080074700001} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"132.11","height":"8.28","transform":["8.28","0.00","0.00","8.28","246.81","391.79"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwpthjTbvnfcHnvwxmCalibri","x":246.80679441,"y":391.79409756000007} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"132.11","height":"8.28","transform":["8.28","0.00","0.00","8.28","76.20","391.54"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwpthjTbvnfcHnvwxmCalibri","x":76.19770170000001,"y":391.5350948700001} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.8","dir":"ltr","width":"27.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","371.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.858300450000016,"y":371.41751064000005} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"Global: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"301.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","86.61","371.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.60880400000002,"y":371.41751064000005} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"costs in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"72.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","361.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858300450000016,"y":361.4215084400001} {"page":231,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009275,"y":623.6533199700001} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"183","dir":"ltr","width":"11.72","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.33","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.32540893,"y":623.65332031} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"investment in conventional power plants will comprises around 40% of total cumu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","329.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":329.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","329.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":329.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"lative investments, whereas approximately 60% will be invested in renewable power ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","317.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":317.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"generation and co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"140.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","305.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":305.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"8.9","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","194.66","305.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":194.65829467,"y":305.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","207.16","305.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":207.15829467,"y":305.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, the world will shift almost 94% (95%) ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","293.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":293.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"of its total energy investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","281.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":281.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"fuel share of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","269.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":269.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"plants that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"188.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","257.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":257.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","245.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":245.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $26,300 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","233.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":233.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $730 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","221.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":221.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C Scenario will be equivalent to 90% of the additional energy investments ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","209.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":209.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","197.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":197.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"add up to $28,800 billion, or $800 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"202.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","185.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":185.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"8.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","141.74"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":141.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"Global: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"173.89","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","141.74"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":141.74090576} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 59%, from ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","113.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":113.74089813} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"151 EJ/year in 2015 to around 240 EJ/year in 2050. 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The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","65.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":65.74089813} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"Fossil","dir":"ltr","width":"18.87","height":"7.23","transform":["7.23","0.00","0.00","7.23","271.14","511.54"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NlsftfPbvlymPcsmbvArialMT","x":271.14260864,"y":511.54290771} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"30%","dir":"ltr","width":"14.46","height":"7.23","transform":["7.23","0.00","0.00","7.23","273.35","502.54"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NlsftfPbvlymPcsmbvArialMT","x":273.346344,"y":502.54019165} {"page":232,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"24.89","height":"7.23","transform":["7.23","0.00","0.00","7.23","210.02","491.95"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NlsftfPbvlymPcsmbvArialMT","x":210.01657104,"y":491.94787597} 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{"page":233,"change":"none","str":"101,172","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","345.99","77.02"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.9905624999998,"y":77.02067679999979} {"page":233,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00026708999974,"y":623.6532985699998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"185","dir":"ltr","width":"11.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.27","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.2692871,"y":623.65332031} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0  °C Scenario and 17,200 PJ/year in the 1.5  °C Scenario. The direct use of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"electricity for heating will also increase by a factor of 4.2–4.5 between 2015 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"2050 and will have a final share of 26% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 30% in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenario (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"108.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"8.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.04","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.03729248,"y":561.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.54","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.53729248,"y":561.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"8.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","523.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":523.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Global: Future Investments in the Heating Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"245.37","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","523.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":523.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"will amount to around $13,230 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"for plant replacement after their economic lifetimes)—approximately $368 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"per year. The largest share of this investment is assumed to be for heat pumps (around ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"$5700 billion), followed by solar collectors and geothermal heat use. The 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technologies. However, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":435.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0 °C Scenario) will result in a lower aver","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","423.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":423.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"age annual investment of around $344 billion per year (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"245.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"8.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","299.02","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.0192871,"y":411.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.46","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.45928955,"y":411.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"8.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.66","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.65930175,"y":411.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.08","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.07931518,"y":411.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"8.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","373.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":373.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Global: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"89.23","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","373.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":373.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"The energy demand in the transport sector will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"50% by 2050, from around 97,200 PJ/year in 2015 to 145,700 PJ/year in 2050. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0  °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"reduce the energy demand by 66% (96,000 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario. Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","265.08"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":265.08248901} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Global: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"250.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.35","265.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.34629821,"y":265.08248901} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"in GW","dir":"ltr","width":"22.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.6929891900002,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"(°C)","dir":"ltr","width":"14.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","124.16","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.1574896100002,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","161.46","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.45548613000022,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","207.40","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":207.39799102000018,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","253.34","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.34048064000018,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","299.28","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.2829855200002,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","345.23","250.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.2254904100002,"y":250.8269788799998} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"29.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","238.18"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.6844976800002,"y":238.1789838899998} 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{"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Excluding direct electric heating","dir":"ltr","width":"110.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.76","59.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.7601888900002,"y":59.15198345999982} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583868300002,"y":623.6533033499999} {"page":234,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6083868300002,"y":623.6533033499999} {"page":235,"change":"none","str":"186","dir":"ltr","width":"11.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":235,"change":"none","str":"the transport demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","251.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":251.09629821} {"page":235,"change":"none","str":"of 74% (or 108,000 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0  °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"315.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","239.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":239.09629821} 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{"page":236,"change":"none","str":"Na","dir":"ltr","width":"6.79","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","325.78","272.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":325.77920548000014,"y":272.19475095000024} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"tu","dir":"ltr","width":"5.29","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","332.31","272.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":332.3055726600001,"y":272.19475095000024} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"ra","dir":"ltr","width":"4.72","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","337.20","272.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":337.2029725700001,"y":272.19475095000024} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"l ","dir":"ltr","width":"2.90","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","341.82","272.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":341.81573502000015,"y":272.19475095000024} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"Ga","dir":"ltr","width":"6.72","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","344.71","272.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":344.7098695400001,"y":272.19475095000024} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"2.93","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","351.82","272.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":351.8214112900001,"y":272.19475095000024} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"Oil products","dir":"ltr","width":"31.05","height":"5.27","transform":["5.27","0.00","0.00","5.27","325.78","258.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":325.77920548000014,"y":258.36876218000026} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.12","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","205.18"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829941000013,"y":205.17724912000023} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"Global: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"211.85","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","205.18"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980332000013,"y":205.17724912000023} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829941000013,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":236,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829941000013,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"188","dir":"ltr","width":"11.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"Thus, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"99.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","340.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":340.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","164.99","339.23"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.98890686,"y":339.2330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":" emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.99","340.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.98890686,"y":340.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"and by 68% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid reduction ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8589096,"y":328.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8589096,"y":316.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"the reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the ‘Residential ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8589096,"y":304.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"and other’ and ‘Transport’ sectors (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"159.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8589096,"y":292.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"8.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","213.75","292.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.74790954,"y":292.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.25","292.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.24790954,"y":292.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"8.1.10","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","248.73"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":248.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"Global: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"189.70","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","248.73"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":248.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption based on the assumptions discussed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"above in the three scenarios are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"185.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":208.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"8.14","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","239.57","208.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":239.56828308,"y":208.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the pri","dir":"ltr","width":"125.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","257.07","208.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":257.06829833,"y":208.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","208.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":208.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"mary energy demand will decrease by 21%, from around 556 EJ/year in 2015 to 439 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"EJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C Scenario, the overall primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":184.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"demand will decrease by 48% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario (5.0 °C: 837 EJ in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":172.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will be even lower (412 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","160.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":160.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"EJ in 2050) due to the lower final energy demand and lower conversion losses.","dir":"ltr","width":"313.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":148.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","136.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":136.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 35% in 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":124.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"92% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":112.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"primary energy share of more than 92% in 2050 (this will includes non-energy con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":100.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","100.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":100.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"sumption, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","88.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":88.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cumulative primary energy consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","76.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":76.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"of natural gas in the 5.0 °C Scenario will be 5580 EJ, the cumulative coal consump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","64.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":64.7330017} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","64.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14230346,"y":64.7330017} 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{"page":237,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.30","height":"6.09","transform":["0.00","6.09","-6.09","0.00","326.06","451.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":326.0553017,"y":451.82879581000003} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.30","height":"6.09","transform":["0.00","6.09","-6.09","0.00","339.42","451.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":339.41543965,"y":451.82879581000003} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.30","height":"6.09","transform":["0.00","6.09","-6.09","0.00","352.77","451.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":352.76950458,"y":451.82879581000003} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"13.55","height":"6.09","transform":["6.09","0.00","0.00","6.09","117.10","442.96"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":117.10000232,"y":442.96481266} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"13.55","height":"6.09","transform":["6.09","0.00","0.00","6.09","170.53","442.96"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":170.53035358,"y":442.96481266} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"13.55","height":"6.09","transform":["6.09","0.00","0.00","6.09","223.95","442.96"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":223.94852069,"y":442.96481266} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"13.55","height":"6.09","transform":["6.09","0.00","0.00","6.09","277.38","442.96"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":277.37884906,"y":442.96481266} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"13.55","height":"6.09","transform":["6.09","0.00","0.00","6.09","330.80","442.96"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":330.79703143,"y":442.96481266} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"cumulated emissions [Gt]","dir":"ltr","width":"87.98","height":"7.20","transform":["0.00","-7.20","7.20","0.00","380.17","579.99"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":380.17181781,"y":579.99047794} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"10.79","height":"7.20","transform":["0.00","7.20","-7.20","0.00","60.28","497.65"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":60.28260425,"y":497.64581241} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.78","height":"5.00","transform":["0.00","5.00","-5.00","0.00","63.28","508.44"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":63.28260425,"y":508.44100895} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"emissions [Mt/yr]","dir":"ltr","width":"59.18","height":"7.20","transform":["0.00","7.20","-7.20","0.00","60.28","512.88"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":60.28260425,"y":512.87622013} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"'Power 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{"page":237,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.30","height":"6.09","transform":["6.09","0.00","0.00","6.09","121.54","401.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":121.53500751000001,"y":401.15579166} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.13","dir":"ltr","width":"30.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","54.11","380.97"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":54.108303100000015,"y":380.97250309} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"Global: development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"94.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.73","380.97"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.73480609,"y":380.97250309} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","185.32","379.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.31740192,"y":379.69750919} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":" emissions by sector and cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"137.11","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","187.87","380.97"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.86740497000002,"y":380.97250309} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","324.96","379.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.96429828,"y":379.69750919} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":" emissions (since ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","327.51","380.97"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.51431659,"y":380.97250309} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario)","dir":"ltr","width":"237.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","54.11","370.98"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":54.11180499000001,"y":370.97650089} {"page":237,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009539999996,"y":623.65331974} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"189","dir":"ltr","width":"11.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.30","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.30160522,"y":623.65332031} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"tion will be about 6360 EJ, and the crude oil consumption will be 6380 EJ. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","348.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":348.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to 3140 EJ, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","336.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":336.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"coal demand to 2340 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 2960 EJ. Even lower fos","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","324.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":324.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","324.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":324.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"sil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 2710 EJ for natural gas, 1570 EJ ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","312.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":312.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"for coal, and 2230 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"114.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","300.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":300.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"8.2","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","256.06"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":256.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Global: Bunker Fuels","dir":"ltr","width":"110.57","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","256.06"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":256.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Bunker fuels for international aviation and navigation are separate categories in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","228.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":228.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"energy statistics. Their use and related emissions are not usually directly allocated ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","216.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":216.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"to the regional energy balances. However, they contribute significantly to global ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","204.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":204.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and pose great challenges regarding their substi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","192.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":192.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","192.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":192.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"tution with low-carbon alternatives. In 2015, the annual bunker fuels consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","180.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":180.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"was in the order of 16,000 PJ, of which 7400 PJ was for aviation and 8600 PJ for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","168.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":168.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"navigation. Between 2009 and 2015, bunker fuel consumption increased by 13%. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","156.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":156.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"The annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"60.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","144.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":144.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","114.25","142.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.2492981,"y":142.56469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":" emissions from bunker fuels accounted for 1.3 Gt in 2015, approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"264.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.25","144.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.2492981,"y":144.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","144.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21929931,"y":144.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"mately 4% of global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"165.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","132.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8592987,"y":132.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","219.17","130.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.17019653,"y":130.56469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":" emissions. 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Because no substitution with ‘green’ fuels is assumed, CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","84.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86019897,"y":84.06469726} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","82.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":82.56459808} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"emissions will rise by the same order of magnitude.","dir":"ltr","width":"206.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","72.06"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":72.06459808} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":" 0","dir":"ltr","width":"5.26","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","85.42","429.60"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":85.41690063,"y":429.5961914} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"100,000","dir":"ltr","width":"22.80","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","68.06","448.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":68.0559082,"y":448.37319946} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"200,000","dir":"ltr","width":"22.80","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","68.06","467.15"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":68.0559082,"y":467.15020751} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"300,000","dir":"ltr","width":"22.80","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","68.06","485.93"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":68.0559082,"y":485.92721557} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"400,000","dir":"ltr","width":"22.80","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","68.06","504.70"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":68.0559082,"y":504.70422363} 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{"page":238,"change":"none","str":"900,000","dir":"ltr","width":"22.80","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","68.06","598.58"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":68.0585022,"y":598.57507324} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","115.17","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":115.16790008,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","127.31","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":127.31141662,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","139.45","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":139.44862365,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","163.73","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":163.72935485,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","175.87","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":175.86656188,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","188.00","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":188.00376892,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","212.28","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":212.27818298,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","224.42","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":224.41539001,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","236.56","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":236.55891418,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","260.84","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":260.83963012,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","272.98","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":272.9831543,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","285.13","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":285.12667846,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","309.40","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":309.40109252,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","321.54","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":321.54458618,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"15.85","height":"6.31","transform":["0.00","6.31","-6.31","0.00","333.68","412.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":333.68182373,"y":412.10321044} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"14.03","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","118.81","403.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":118.80799865,"y":403.15820312} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"14.03","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","167.36","403.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":167.36451721,"y":403.15820312} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"14.03","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","215.93","403.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":215.9273529,"y":403.15820312} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"14.03","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","264.48","403.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":264.48388671,"y":403.15820312} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"14.03","height":"6.31","transform":["6.31","0.00","0.00","6.31","313.05","403.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":313.04672241,"y":403.15820312} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"PJ/yr","dir":"ltr","width":"19.01","height":"7.77","transform":["0.00","7.77","-7.77","0.00","60.52","506.01"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":60.52330017,"y":506.01168823} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"27.56","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","582.44"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":582.44189453} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Ocean energy","dir":"ltr","width":"38.58","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","567.38"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":567.37738037} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"32.42","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","552.31"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":552.3125} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Solar","dir":"ltr","width":"14.59","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","537.24"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":537.2446289} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"24.31","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","522.18"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":522.17907714} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Wind","dir":"ltr","width":"14.26","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","507.12"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":507.11520385} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"16.85","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","492.05"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":492.05020141} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Natural gas","dir":"ltr","width":"31.77","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","476.98"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":476.98120117} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Crude oil","dir":"ltr","width":"25.28","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","461.92"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":461.91720581} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"12.64","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","446.85"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":446.85220336} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"21.40","height":"5.84","transform":["5.83","0.00","0.00","5.84","346.96","431.79"],"fontName":"RZTODG+SsncprWkssfsDlmqqqArialBold","x":346.95529174,"y":431.78720092} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.14","dir":"ltr","width":"32.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","382.89"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":382.89471435} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Global: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","91.80","382.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.8022995,"y":382.89471435} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"31.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","372.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":372.89871215} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":238,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"190","dir":"ltr","width":"12.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"Although the use of hydrogen and electricity in aviation is technically feasible (at ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"least for regional transport) and synthetic gas use in navigation is an additional option ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"under discussion, this analysis uses a conservative approach and assumes that bunker ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"fuels are only replaced by biofuels or synthetic liquid fuels. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"271.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"8.15","dir":"ltr","width":"17.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","325.54","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":325.53829956,"y":561.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":" shows the ","dir":"ltr","width":"45.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.80","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.7982788,"y":561.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C and two alternative bunker scenarios, which are defined in consistency to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"scenarios for each world region. For the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, we assume the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"limited use of sustainable biomass potentials and the complementary central produc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":525.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"tion of power-to-liquid synfuels. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, this production is assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"to take place in three world regions: Africa, the Middle East, and OECD Pacific ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"(especially Australia), where synfuel generation for export is expected to be the most ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"economic. The 1.5 °C Scenario requires even faster decarbonisation, and therefore ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"follows a more ambitious low-energy pathway. This will lead to a faster build-up of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"the power-to-liquid infrastructure in all regions, which in the long term, will also be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"used for limited ‘regional’ bunker fuel production to maintain the utilization of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"existing infrastructure. Therefore, the production of bunker fuels is assumed to occur ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"in more regions, with lower exports from the supply regions mentioned above, in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":239,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C Scenario. 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{"page":241,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"11.81","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.23","72.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.22720512999996,"y":72.56472712000054} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["0.00","5.10","-5.10","0.00","322.56","83.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.55911431,"y":83.79325800000055} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":" emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"35.66","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.28","86.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.28408989999997,"y":86.34326105000055} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":"Mt/year","dir":"ltr","width":"29.18","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.28","201.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":321.28408989999997,"y":201.40775996000053} 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{"page":241,"change":"none","str":"203","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.28","426.66"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":321.28408989999997,"y":426.65775996000053} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.28","471.71"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":321.28408989999997,"y":471.7077782700006} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.28","516.76"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":321.28408989999997,"y":516.7577660600004} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","321.28","561.81"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":321.28408989999997,"y":561.8077538500005} {"page":241,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009331999996,"y":623.6535790500005} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"193","dir":"ltr","width":"12.12","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.08","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.0823059,"y":623.65332031} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"The production of synthetic fuels will cause significant additional electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"demand and a corresponding expansion of the renewable power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"capacities. In the case of liquid bunker fuels, these additional renewable power ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"generation capacities will amount to 1100 GW in the 2.0  °C Scenario and more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"than 1200 GW in the 1.5 °C Scenario if a flexible utilization rate of 4000 full-load ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"hours per year can be achieved. However, such a situation will require high amounts ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"of electrolyser capacity and hydrogen storage to allow not only flexibility in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"power system, but also high utilization rates of the downstream synthesis processes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"(e.g., via Fischer-","dir":"ltr","width":"71.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"Tropsch plants). Other options for renewable synthetic fuel pro","dir":"ltr","width":"256.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.35","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.34829711,"y":501.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":501.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"duction are solar thermal chemical processes, which directly use high-temperature ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"solar heat.","dir":"ltr","width":"41.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"8.3","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","433.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":433.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"Global: Utilization of Solar and Wind Potential","dir":"ltr","width":"241.57","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","433.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":433.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"The economic potential, under space constraints, of utility solar PV, concentrated ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"solar power (CSP), and onshore wind was analysed with the methodology described ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","86.36","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.35829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":" of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","98.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":98.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","138.30","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":138.29829406,"y":381.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.30","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.29829406,"y":381.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C Scenario utilizes only a fraction of the available economic potential ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"of the assumed suitable land for utility-scale solar PV and concentrated solar power ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"plants. This estimate does not include solar PV roof-top systems, which have sig","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":345.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"nificant additional potential. India (2.0  °C) will have the highest solar utilization ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"rate of 8.5%, followed by Europe (2.0 °C) and the Middle East (2.0 °C), with 5.9% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"and 4.6%, respectively.","dir":"ltr","width":"92.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"Onshore wind potential has been utilized to a larger extent than solar potential. 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This wind potential excludes offshore wind, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"which has significant potential but the mapping for the offshore wind potential was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"beyond the scope of this analysis (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"8.6","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.94","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.93730163,"y":249.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.44","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.43730163,"y":249.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5  °C Scenario is based on the accelerated deployment of all renewables ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":242,"change":"none","str":"and the more ambitious implementation of efficiency measures. 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{"page":243,"change":"none","str":"1.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","314.86","540.46"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":314.85579387999974,"y":540.4558177399999} {"page":243,"change":"none","str":"1.2%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","314.86","575.86"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":314.85579387999974,"y":575.8582835599999} {"page":243,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00008098999973,"y":623.6533885399999} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"195","dir":"ltr","width":"12.10","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.11","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.10610961,"y":623.65332031} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"8.4","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"Global: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"155.30","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","595.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"The long-term global and regional energy results were used to conduct a detailed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"power sector analysis with the methodology described in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"250.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","304.01","555.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.00830078,"y":555.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":" of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","316.21","555.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":316.20831298,"y":555.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","356.12","555.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.11828613,"y":555.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":". Both ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","361.07","555.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.06829833,"y":555.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios rely on high shares of variable solar and wind genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","543.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21328735,"y":543.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"tion. The aim of the power sector analysis was to gain insight into the power system ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"stability for each region (subdivided into up to eight sub-regions) and to gauge the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"extent to which power grid interconnections, dispatch generation services, and storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"technologies are required. The results presented in this chapter are projections calcu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","495.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":495.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"lated from publicly available data. Detailed load curves for some of the sub-regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"and countries discussed in this chapter were not available and, in some cases, the rel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","471.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":471.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"evant information is classified. Therefore, the outcomes of the [R]E 24/7 model are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"estimates and require further research with more detailed localized data, especially ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"regarding the available power grid infrastructure. Furthermore, power sector projec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":435.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","435.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20230102,"y":435.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"tions for developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia, assume unilateral access ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"to energy services for the residential sector by 2050, and they require transmission and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"distribution grids in regions where there are none at the time of writing. Further ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"research—in cooperation with local utilities and government representatives—is ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"required to develop a more detailed understanding of power infrastructure needs.","dir":"ltr","width":"314.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":375.79382324} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"8.4.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","331.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":331.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"Global: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"235.07","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","331.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":331.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"The size of the global market for renewable power plants will increase significantly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":303.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"under the 2.0  °C Scenario. The annual market for solar PV power must increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":291.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"from close to 100 GW in 2017 (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"182.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":279.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.46","279.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.45829772,"y":279.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":") by a factor of 4.5 to an average ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.46","279.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.45831298,"y":279.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"of 454 GW by 2030. The onshore wind market must expand to 172 GW by 2025, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"about three times higher than in 2017 (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"209.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","263.20","255.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":263.19830322,"y":255.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"). The offshore wind mar","dir":"ltr","width":"99.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","283.20","255.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":283.19830322,"y":255.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","255.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":255.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"ket will continue to increase in importance within the renewable power sector. By ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"2050, offshore wind installations will increase to 32 GW annually—11 times higher ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"than in 2017 (GWEC ","dir":"ltr","width":"86.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","140.15","219.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.14830017,"y":219.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"). Concentrated solar power plants will play an important ","dir":"ltr","width":"227.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","160.15","219.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.14830017,"y":219.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"role in dispatchable solar electricity generation for the supply of bulk power, espe","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","207.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":207.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"cially for industry, and will provide secured capacity to power systems. By 2030, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"the annual CSP market must increase to 78 GW, compared with 3 GW in 2020 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"only 0.1 GW in 2017 (REN21-GSR2018) (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"196.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"8.7","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.82","171.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.81730651,"y":171.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","263.32","171.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":263.31729125,"y":171.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the phase-out of coal and lignite power plants is acceler","dir":"ltr","width":"316.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","159.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":159.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","159.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":159.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"ated and a total capacity of 618 GW—equivalent to approximately 515 power sta","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","147.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":147.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","147.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16729736,"y":147.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"tions","dir":"ltr","width":"19.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":135.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","73.11","139.12"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.10820007,"y":139.12379455} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"—must end operation by 2025. The replacement power must come from a ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","76.08","135.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":76.084198,"y":135.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"variety of renewable power generators, both variable and dispatchable. The annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","123.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419845,"y":123.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"market for solar PV must be around 30% higher in 2050 than it was in 2025, as in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","111.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419845,"y":111.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario. While the onshore wind market also has an accelerated trajectory ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","99.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419845,"y":99.79379272} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","78.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":78.6242981} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"Assumption: average size of one coal power plant side contains multiple generation blocks, with ","dir":"ltr","width":"330.72","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.00","75.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.00329971,"y":75.79380035} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"a total of 1200 MW on average for each location.","dir":"ltr","width":"167.30","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","65.80"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":65.79779815} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":244,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"196","dir":"ltr","width":"12.20","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"under the 1.5 °C Scenario as well, the offshore wind market is assumed to be almost ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","335.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":335.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"identical to that in the 2.0  °C pathway because of the longer lead times for these ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","323.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":323.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"projects. The same is assumed for CSP plants, which are utility-scale projects and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","311.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":311.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"significantly higher deployment seems unlikely in the time remaining until 2025.","dir":"ltr","width":"320.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","299.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":299.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"8.4.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","255.58"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":255.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"Global: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"252.94","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","255.58"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":255.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"On a global scale, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the shares of variable renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","227.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":227.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","227.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17230224,"y":227.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"able power generation will increase from 4% in 2015 to 39% and 47%, respectively, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","215.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":215.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"by 2030, and to 64% and 60%, respectively, by 2050. The reason for the variations ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","203.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":203.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"in the two cases is their different assumptions regarding efficiency measures, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","191.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":191.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"may lead to lower overall demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","179.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":179.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"During the same period, dispatchable renewables—CSP plants, biofuel generation, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","167.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":167.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"geothermal energy, and hydropower—will remain around 32% until 2030 on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","155.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":155.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"global average and decrease slightly to 29% in the 2.0 °C Scenario (and to 27% in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","143.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":143.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenario) by 2050. The shares of dispatchable conventional generation—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","131.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":131.57879638} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"mainly coal, oil, gas, and nuclear—will decline from a global average of 60% in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","119.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.57878875} {"page":245,"change":"none","str":"2015 to only 14% in 2040. 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Again, increased variable shares—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":561.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"mainly in the USA, the Middle East region, and Australia—will produce synthetic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":549.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"fuels for the export market, as fuel for both renewable power plants and the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":537.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13838172000027,"y":537.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"port sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"44.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":525.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85837531000027,"y":513.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"8.9","dir":"ltr","width":"12.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.44","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.43837714000027,"y":513.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the capacity factor developments by technol","dir":"ltr","width":"278.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.24","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.23837256000027,"y":513.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20838904000027,"y":513.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"ogy group for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The operational hours shown are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":501.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"the result of [R]E 24/7 modelling under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"181.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":489.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"‘Dispatch case’,","dir":"ltr","width":"67.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.56","489.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":235.55837989000025,"y":489.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":" which assumes that ","dir":"ltr","width":"85.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","302.77","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.76838660000027,"y":489.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"the highest priority is given to the dispatch of power from variable sources, fol","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":477.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2183682900002,"y":477.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"lowed by dispatchable renewables. Conventional power generation will only pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":465.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14936806000026,"y":465.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"vide power for electricity demand that cannot be met by renewables and storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":453.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"technologies. Only imports via interconnections will be assigned a lower priority ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":441.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"than conventional power. The reason that interconnections are placed last in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":429.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"supply cascade is the high level of uncertainty about whether these interconnec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":417.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18836951000026,"y":417.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"tions can actually be implemented in time. Experience with power grid projects—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":405.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"especially transmission lines—indicates that planning and construction can take ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":393.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"many years or fail entirely, leaving large-scale utility-based renewable power ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":381.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"projects unbuilt.","dir":"ltr","width":"66.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85837531000027,"y":369.15979009} {"page":247,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00016761000023,"y":623.6533203700001} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"199","dir":"ltr","width":"12.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.97","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.97009277,"y":623.65332031} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"On the global level, the average capacity factor across all power-generation tech","dir":"ltr","width":"316.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":597.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"nologies is around 45%. For this analysis, we created five different power plant ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"categories based on their current usual operation times and areas of use:","dir":"ltr","width":"287.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"Limited dispatchable fossil and nuclear power plants","dir":"ltr","width":"240.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","555.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":65.85829925,"y":555.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":": coal, lignite, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"84.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.09","555.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.08828735,"y":555.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"nuclear power plants with limited ability to respond to changes in demand. These ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","543.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":543.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"power plants are historically categorized as ‘baseload power plants’. Power sys","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","531.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":531.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","531.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":531.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"tems dominated by renewable energy usually contain high proportions of vari","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","519.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":519.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","519.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":519.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"able generation, and therefore quick reaction times (to ramp up and down) are ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","507.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":507.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"required. Limited dispatchable power plants cannot deliver these services and are ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","495.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":495.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"therefore being phased-out.","dir":"ltr","width":"109.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","483.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":483.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"Limited dispatchable renewable systems","dir":"ltr","width":"172.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","471.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":65.85829925,"y":471.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":" are CSP plants with integrated stor","dir":"ltr","width":"143.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.70","471.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.69830322,"y":471.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","471.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":471.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"age and co-generation systems with renewable fuels (including geothermal heat). ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","459.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":459.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"They cannot respond quickly enough to adapt to minute-by-minute changes in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","447.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":447.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"demand, but can still be used as dispatch power plants for ‘day ahead’ ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","435.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":435.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"planning.","dir":"ltr","width":"37.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","423.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":423.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"Dispatchable fossil fuel power plants","dir":"ltr","width":"154.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","411.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":65.85829925,"y":411.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":" are gas power plants that have very quick ","dir":"ltr","width":"167.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","220.43","411.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.42829895,"y":411.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"reaction times and therefore provide valid power system services.","dir":"ltr","width":"261.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"Dispatchable renewable power plants","dir":"ltr","width":"162.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","387.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":65.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":" are hydropower plants (although they ","dir":"ltr","width":"160.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.37","387.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.3703003,"y":387.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"are dependent on the climatic conditions in the region where the plant is used), ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","375.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":375.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"biogas power plants, and former gas power plants converted to hydrogen and/or ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":248,"change":"none","str":"synthetic fuel. 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{"page":251,"change":"none","str":"China","dir":"ltr","width":"12.92","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","332.74","118.74"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NbjvfyKshkypPlxmyqCalibri","x":332.74194335,"y":118.73549652} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":" OECD Pacific","dir":"ltr","width":"30.20","height":"5.64","transform":["5.64","0.00","0.00","5.64","354.60","118.74"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NbjvfyKshkypPlxmyqCalibri","x":354.60144042,"y":118.73549652} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"Load Development by Region","dir":"ltr","width":"106.27","height":"8.93","transform":["8.93","0.00","0.00","8.93","170.23","404.14"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NbjvfyKshkypPlxmyqCalibri","x":170.23010253,"y":404.14471435} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"2.0C Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%]","dir":"ltr","width":"134.82","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","93.96","98.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NbjvfyKshkypPlxmyqCalibri","x":93.96099853,"y":98.83249664} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"1.5C Max Load Development (Base year 2020) [%]","dir":"ltr","width":"134.82","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","243.13","98.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NbjvfyKshkypPlxmyqCalibri","x":243.12510681,"y":98.83249664} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.16","dir":"ltr","width":"31.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.62","79.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.62310028,"y":79.15200042} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"Development of maximum load in 10 world regions in 2020, 2030, and 2050  in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","91.02","79.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.0231018,"y":79.15200042} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"93.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.62","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.62310028,"y":69.15599822} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"this analysis is the load remaining after variable renewable power generation. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"Negative values indicate that the power generation from solar and wind exceeds the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"actual load and must be exported to other regions, stored, or curtailed. In each ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"region, the average generation should be on the same level as the average load. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"maximum loads and maximum generations shown do not usually occur at the same ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"time, so surplus production of electricity can appear and this should be exported or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"stored as much as possible. In rare individual cases, solar or wind generation plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"can also temporarily reduce their output to a lower load, or some plants can be shut ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"down. Any reduced generation from solar and wind in response to low demand is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"defined as ","dir":"ltr","width":"42.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"curtailment","dir":"ltr","width":"46.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.63","489.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":96.62830352,"y":489.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","142.74","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.7382965,"y":489.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"8.16","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.19","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.18830108,"y":477.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":" illustrates the development of the maximum loads across all 10 ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.69","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.68830108,"y":477.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"world regions under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The most significant increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"appears in Africa, where the maximum load surges over the entire modelling period ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"by 534% in response to favourable economic development and increased access to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":251,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"203","dir":"ltr","width":"12.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.66","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.663208,"y":623.65332031} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"energy services by households. In OECD Pacific, efficiency measures will lead to a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"reduction in the maximum load to 87% of the base year value by 2030 and will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"increase to 116% by 2050 with the expansion of electric mobility and the increased ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"electrification of the process heat supply in the industry sector. The 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"has slightly higher loads in response to the accelerated electrification of the indus","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":549.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"try, heating, and business sectors, except in three regions (the Middle East, India, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"and Non OECD Asia), where early action on efficiency measures will lead to an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"overall lower demand at the end of the modelling period, with the same GDP and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"population growth rates.","dir":"ltr","width":"97.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"8.4.4","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","457.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":457.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Global System-Relevant Technologies—Storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"239.11","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","457.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":457.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"and Dispatch","dir":"ltr","width":"65.56","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","443.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":443.15579223} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"The global results of introducing system-relevant technologies are shown in ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","415.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":415.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","403.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":403.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"8.8","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.09","403.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.08830261,"y":403.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":". The first part of this section documents the required power plant markets, ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.59","403.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.58830261,"y":403.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"the changes and configurations of power-generation systems, and the development ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","391.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":391.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"of loads in response to high electrification rates in the industry, heating, and trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","379.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":379.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","379.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":379.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"port sectors. The next step in the analysis documents the storage and dispatch ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"demands and possible technology utilization. It is important to note that the results ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"presented here are not cost-optimized. The mixture of battery storage and pumped ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"hydropower plants with hydrogen- and synthetic-fuel-based dispatch power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"presented here represents only one option of many.","dir":"ltr","width":"203.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Significant simplification is required for the computer simulations of large ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","307.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":307.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"regions, to reduce the data volumes (and calculation times) or simply because there ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"is not yet any data, because several regions still have no electricity infrastructure in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"place. Detailed modelling requires access to detailed data. Although the modelling ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"tools used for this analysis could be used to develop significantly more-detailed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":259.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"regional analyses, this is beyond the scope of this research.","dir":"ltr","width":"235.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"The basic concept for the management of power system generation is based on ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","235.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":235.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"four principles:","dir":"ltr","width":"61.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"1.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Diversity;","dir":"ltr","width":"39.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","205.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":205.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"2.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Flexibility;","dir":"ltr","width":"44.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","193.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":193.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"3.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Inter-sectorial connectivity;","dir":"ltr","width":"110.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","181.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":181.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"4.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.15977478} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Resource efficiency.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","169.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":169.15977478} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Diversity","dir":"ltr","width":"36.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":151.15979003} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"in the locally deployed renewable power-generation structure. For exam","dir":"ltr","width":"285.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.42","151.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.41760253,"y":151.1598053} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","151.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15759277,"y":151.1598053} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"ple, a combination of onshore and offshore wind with solar PV and CSP plants will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85760116,"y":139.1598053} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"reduce storage and dispatch demands.","dir":"ltr","width":"151.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85760116,"y":127.15979766} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Flexibility","dir":"ltr","width":"40.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85760116,"y":103.15979766} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"involves a significant number of fast-reacting dispatch power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.77","103.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.76789855,"y":103.15979766} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"operated with fuels produced from renewable electricity (hydrogen and synthetic ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":91.15979766} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"fuels). The existing gas infrastructure can be further utilized to avoid stranded ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":79.15979766} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":252,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"204","dir":"ltr","width":"13.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"investments, and the actual fuel production can also be used—with some technical ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"limitations—for load management, which again will reduce the need for storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"technologies.","dir":"ltr","width":"53.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"Inter-sectorial connectivity","dir":"ltr","width":"108.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"involves the connection of the heating (including pro","dir":"ltr","width":"213.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","168.59","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":168.5926056,"y":549.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19760131,"y":549.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"cess heat) and transport sectors. Neither the transport sector nor the heating sector ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":537.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"will undergo complete electrification. To supply industrial process heat, the capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":525.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"of co-generation plants—operated with bio-, geothermal, or hydrogen fuels—will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":513.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"be increased by a factor of 2.5 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. Co-generation heating sys","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":501.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20062255,"y":501.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"tems with heat storage capacities and heat pumps operated with renewable electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":489.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1616211,"y":489.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"ity will lead to more flexibility in the management of both load and demand. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":477.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"However, an analysis of the full potential for these heating systems was not within ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":465.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"the scope of this project, so they have not been included in the modelling. Further ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":453.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"research with localized data is required.","dir":"ltr","width":"158.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86260986,"y":441.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"Resource efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"77.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.86260986,"y":417.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"In addition to energy and GHG modelling, a resource assess","dir":"ltr","width":"244.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","137.45","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":137.44670104,"y":417.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18670654,"y":417.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"ment of selected metals has been undertaken (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"225.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":405.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.35","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.3467102,"y":405.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"). A variety of technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"92.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","289.35","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":289.3467102,"y":405.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17770385,"y":405.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"gies—especially storage technologies—can be used to reduce the pressure on ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":393.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"resource requirements, namely for cobalt and lithium for batteries and electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":381.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"mobility and the silver required for solar technologies. Therefore, the choice of stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":369.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17669677,"y":369.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"age technologies has taken the specific requirements for metals into account.","dir":"ltr","width":"306.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":357.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85669708,"y":345.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"8.11","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.85669708,"y":345.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":" shows the storage volumes (in GWh per year) required to avoid the ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.36","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.35669708,"y":345.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"curtailment of variable renewable power generation and the utilization of storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":333.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"capacities for batteries and pumped hydro for charging with variable renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8567009,"y":321.15979003} {"page":253,"change":"none","str":"electricity in the calculated scenarios. 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{"page":255,"change":"none","str":"601,598","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","294.98"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":294.975932209999} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"2,913,522","dir":"ltr","width":"34.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","334.23"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":334.228953439999} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"4,412,827","dir":"ltr","width":"34.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","376.01"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":376.014933669999} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"153,528","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","434.78"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":434.783946119999} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"140,555","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","482.99"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":482.987437329999} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"586,516","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","529.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":529.2869368399989} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"2,913,522","dir":"ltr","width":"34.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","315.03","568.54"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0301778499999,"y":568.5399275599989} {"page":255,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.0000875199999,"y":623.653391919999} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"207","dir":"ltr","width":"13.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.56","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.56381225,"y":623.65332031} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"battery market must grow by an annual installation rate of 22 GW, and as a result, it ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"will overtake the global capacity of pumped hydro between 2040 and 2050. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"conversion of the gas infrastructure from natural gas to hydrogen and synthetic fuels ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"will start slowly between 2020 and 2030, with the conversion of power plants with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"an annual capacity of around 2 GW. However, after 2030, the transformation of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"global gas industry to hydrogen will accelerate significantly, with a total of 197 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"of gas power plants and gas co-generation capacity converted each year. In parallel, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"the average capacity factor for gas and hydrogen plants will decrease from 29% ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"(2578 h/year) in 2030 to 11% (975 h/year) by 2050, turning the gas sector from a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"supply-driven to a service-driven industry.","dir":"ltr","width":"168.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"At around 2030, the 1.5 °C Scenario requires more storage throughput than does ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario, but storage demands for the two scenarios will be equal at the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"end of the modelling period. It is assumed that this higher throughput can be man","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":453.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"aged with equally high installed capacities, leading to annual capacity factors for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"battery and hydro pump storage of around 5–6% by 2050 (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"259.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"8.12","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.24","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.23730468,"y":429.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","330.74","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.73730468,"y":429.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"8.13","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.73","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.728302,"y":417.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":" shows the average global investment costs for the battery and hydro ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.23","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.228302,"y":417.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"pump storage capacities in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios. Both pathways have ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"equal storage capacities and cost projections, especially for batteries, but are highly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"uncertain in the years beyond 2025. Therefore, the costs are only estimates and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"require research.","dir":"ltr","width":"66.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"8.5","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","325.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":325.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America","dir":"ltr","width":"114.65","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","325.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":325.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"8.5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","299.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":299.15579223} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Long-Term Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"261.53","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","299.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":299.15579223} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"8.5.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","275.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":275.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Final Energy Demand by Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"238.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","275.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":275.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"Combining the assumptions for population growth, GDP growth, and energy inten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","251.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":251.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","251.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":251.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"sity will result in the development pathways for OECD North America’s final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","239.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":239.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"demand shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"92.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","227.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":227.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"8.17","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","146.39","227.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.38830566,"y":227.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":" under the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios. 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In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","203.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":203.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"energy demand will decrease by 47% compared with current consumption and will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","191.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":191.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"reach 37,300 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","179.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":179.15979003} {"page":256,"change":"none","str":"reach 33,700 PJ, 52% below the 2015 demand level. 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{"page":258,"change":"none","str":"Total","dir":"ltr","width":"17.26","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","251.03","71.96"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.03391548000002,"y":71.96113583999987} {"page":258,"change":"none","str":"4.8","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","251.03","161.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.03391548000002,"y":161.28763577999987} {"page":258,"change":"none","str":"0.967","dir":"ltr","width":"19.13","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","251.03","202.54"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.03391548000002,"y":202.53813931999986} {"page":258,"change":"none","str":"83.2","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","251.03","240.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.03391548000002,"y":240.70313260999987} 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{"page":258,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60830971000003,"y":623.6533279199999} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"210","dir":"ltr","width":"11.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"for electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector, it will require ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","361.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":361.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"approximately 3300 TWh/year for electric mobility. The generation of hydrogen ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":349.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"(for transport and high-temperature process heat) and the manufacture of synthetic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"fuels (mainly for transport) will add an additional power demand of 3000 TWh/year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the gross power demand will rise from 5300 TWh/year in 2015 to 9500 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","313.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":313.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario, 30% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","301.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":301.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario, the gross electricity demand will increase to a maximum of 9400 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":289.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year in 2050 for similar reasons.","dir":"ltr","width":"152.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","277.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":277.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency gains in the heating sector will be similar in magnitude to those in ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","265.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":265.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"the electricity sector. Under the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios, a final energy con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","253.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":253.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","253.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14331054,"y":253.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"sumption equivalent to about 7000 PJ/year and 9400 PJ/year, respectively, will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","241.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":241.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"avoided by 2050 through efficiency gains compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"310.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","229.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":229.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"8.5.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.11"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":193.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"196.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","193.11"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":193.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","157.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":157.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"able sources. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, 100% of the electricity produced in OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"North America will come from renewable energy sources by 2050. ‘New’ renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","133.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21429443,"y":133.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"ables—mainly wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 85% of the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","121.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":121.11499023} {"page":259,"change":"none","str":"electricity generated. 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The calculated electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"232.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","152.95","334.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.94769287,"y":334.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.9 ct/kWh. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","322.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":322.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 10.1 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","310.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":310.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"kWh. The generation costs in the 2.0 °C Scenario will increase in a similar way until ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","298.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":298.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"2030, when they reach 8.3 ct/kWh, and then drop to 6.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","286.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":286.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 8.8 ct/kWh and then drop to 7.1 ct/kWh by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","274.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":274.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs in 2050 are 3.3 ct/kWh lower than ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","262.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":262.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the generation costs in 2050 are 3.1 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","250.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":250.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these estimates of generation costs do ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","238.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":238.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage, or ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","226.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":226.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"124.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","214.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":214.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"Under the 5.0  °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","202.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8576889,"y":202.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"will result in an increase in total electricity supply costs from today’s $270 billion/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","190.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":190.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"year to more than $760 billion/year in 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","178.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":178.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"supply costs in 2050 will be around $690 billion/year The long-term costs for elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","166.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":166.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","166.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13168334,"y":166.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"tricity supply in 2050 will be 8%–9% lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","154.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":154.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"of the estimated generation costs and the electrification of heating and mobility.","dir":"ltr","width":"318.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","142.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8576889,"y":142.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","130.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8576889,"y":130.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","129.43"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":129.43380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","130.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":130.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 7.5 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","118.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":118.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, they will increase until 2030, when they reach 7.3 ct/kWh, and then drop ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","106.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":106.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"to 6.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 8.4 ct/kWh in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","94.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":94.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"2030, and then drop to 7.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","82.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":82.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"costs will be, at maximum, 1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case, and this will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","70.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":70.93380737} {"page":261,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"213","dir":"ltr","width":"11.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.35","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.3500061,"y":623.65332031} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"occur in 2030. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the maxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","364.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":364.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","364.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12728881,"y":364.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"mum difference in generation costs will be 2 ct/kWh in 2030. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"290.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","352.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":352.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","344.55","351.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.55218505,"y":351.0987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":" costs are ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.55","352.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.55218505,"y":352.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":340.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"$570 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"103.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":328.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"8.5.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.60"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86219024,"y":292.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"270.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","292.60"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36219024,"y":292.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $7600 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":268.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":256.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":244.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","244.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1921997,"y":244.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"ment after the end of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":232.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","232.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1541748,"y":232.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"mately $211 billion per year on average, which is $4400 billion more than in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":220.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case ($3200 billion). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, an investment of around $8180 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":208.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"billion for power generation will be required between 2015 and 2050. On average, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":196.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"this is an investment of $227 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":184.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"in conventional power plants will be around 48% of the total cumulative invest","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":172.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","172.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23217773,"y":172.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"ments, whereas approximately 52% will be invested in renewable power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","160.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":160.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"and co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"95.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":148.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"8.20","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","149.68","148.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.68218994,"y":148.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"). However, under the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"220.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.18","148.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.18218994,"y":148.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"North America will shift almost 93% (93%) of its entire investment to renewables ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":136.5987854} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"and co-","dir":"ltr","width":"29.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":124.59877777} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share of the power sector investment will ","dir":"ltr","width":"304.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.14","124.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.14218902,"y":124.59877777} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"mainly focus on gas power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"298.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":112.59877777} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","100.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86219024,"y":100.59877777} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $3240 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","88.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86219024,"y":88.59877777} {"page":262,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $90 billion per year. 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{"page":265,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","165.72","138.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":165.72238900999946,"y":138.0587474600005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.60","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","332.87","201.94"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":332.8682325199994,"y":201.94275014000047} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"40.12","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","327.10","193.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":327.1003797299994,"y":193.36598317000048} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"7%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.33","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","342.00","184.79"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":342.0024793399994,"y":184.7892314700005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"35.75","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","347.79","173.31"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":347.7917859899994,"y":173.3106700600005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"heat use","dir":"ltr","width":"27.42","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","352.96","164.73"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":352.9562452099994,"y":164.7346507800005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"7%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.33","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","361.50","156.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":361.5044019499994,"y":156.15788381000047} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"17.48","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","345.36","102.96"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":345.35868051999944,"y":102.96053426000049} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"collectors","dir":"ltr","width":"30.18","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","339.00","94.38"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":339.0047071299994,"y":94.38377492000049} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"38%","dir":"ltr","width":"14.30","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","346.94","85.81"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":346.9402539999994,"y":85.80974691000048} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"heat pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"37.34","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","248.30","201.94"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":248.2982404499994,"y":201.9437419600005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"48%","dir":"ltr","width":"14.30","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","259.82","193.37"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":259.8196790499994,"y":193.3669902500005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"72.53","height":"9.24","transform":["9.24","0.00","0.00","9.24","220.40","218.11"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":220.40424325999942,"y":218.10774343000048} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"total 2,800 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.62","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","272.06","138.85"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":272.06125619999943,"y":138.8547527100005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.15","transform":["7.15","0.00","0.00","7.15","327.69","138.85"],"fontName":"RZTODG+TgtyrbXtrjjhHvvkynArialMT","x":327.6886976099994,"y":138.8547527100005} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.22","dir":"ltr","width":"30.86","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","65.60"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85824563999944,"y":65.59824483000048} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: development of investments in renewable heat generation tech","dir":"ltr","width":"292.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.46","65.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.45924356999943,"y":65.59824483000048} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","382.67","65.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.67310311999944,"y":65.59824483000048} {"page":265,"change":"none","str":"nologies in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"83.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","55.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":55.602246450000486} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"217","dir":"ltr","width":"11.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.63","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.6296997,"y":623.65332031} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"per year. The largest share of investment in OECD North America is assumed to be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"for heat pumps (around $1300 billion), followed by solar collectors and biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"technologies. The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"technologies, resulting in a lower average annual investment of around $78 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"per year (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"62.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"8.16","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","116.64","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":116.63729858,"y":549.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","134.14","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.13729858,"y":549.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"8.22","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","157.48","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":157.47729492,"y":549.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","174.98","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.97729492,"y":549.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"8.5.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"144.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","513.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector in OECD North America is expected to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"decrease by 8% in the 5.0  °C Scenario, from around 31,000 PJ/year in 2015 to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"28,600 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"behavioural changes will save 73% (20,970 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case. Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":441.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"port demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario, of 74% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"(or 21,100 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"264.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"8.17","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","318.68","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.67630004,"y":417.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","336.18","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.17630004,"y":417.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"8.23","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.52","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.51629638,"y":417.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","377.02","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":377.01629638,"y":417.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 11% (620 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and in 2050, the share will be 44% (930 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year). In 2050, up to 2090 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 1030 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 2020 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"174.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 2540 PJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":321.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"duced, with a maximum amount of 270 PJ/year in 2050. Because the reduction in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.17","dir":"ltr","width":"37.99","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","280.28"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":280.27780151} {"page":266,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: projection of the transport energy demand by mode in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","97.58","280.28"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.58229827,"y":280.27780151} 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The demand for synthetic fuels will decrease to zero ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","368.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":368.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"by 2050  in the 1.5  °C Scenario because of the lower overall energy demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","356.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":356.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"transport.","dir":"ltr","width":"38.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","344.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":344.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"8.5.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","308.70"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":308.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"185.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","308.70"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":308.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","276.91","307.20"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":276.9059143,"y":307.1954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.91","308.70"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":279.9059143,"y":308.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, OECD North America’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"232.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","284.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85591888,"y":284.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","286.49","283.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.4913025,"y":283.1954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":" emissions will decrease ","dir":"ltr","width":"98.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","289.49","284.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":289.4913025,"y":284.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"by 9% from 6170 Mt. in 2015 to 5612 Mt. in 2050. Stringent mitigation measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","272.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86130905,"y":272.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"in both the alternative scenarios will lead to reductions in annual emissions to 930 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","260.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86130905,"y":260.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"Mt. in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 120 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with fur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","248.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86130905,"y":248.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","248.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18130493,"y":248.6954956} {"page":267,"change":"none","str":"ther reductions to almost zero by 2050. 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The cumulative primary energy consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"of natural gas in the 5.0 °C case will add up to 1290 EJ, the cumulative coal con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","309.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21429443,"y":309.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"sumption to about 470 EJ, and the crude oil consumption to 1300 EJ. In contrast, in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to 730 EJ, the cumula","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","285.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2163086,"y":285.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"tive coal demand to 120 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 640 EJ. Even lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"cumulative fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 480 EJ for natural ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"gas, 80 EJ for coal, and 440 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"153.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"8.5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","205.77"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":205.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Regional Results: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"199.83","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","205.77"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":205.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"The key results for all 10 world regions and their sub-regions are presented in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"section, with standardized tables to make them comparable for the reader. Regional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"differences and particularities are summarized. It is important to note that the elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","153.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2033081,"y":153.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"tricity loads for the sub-regions—which are in several cases also countries—are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"calculated (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"89.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.17","129.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.16830444,"y":129.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":") and are not real measured values. When information was ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.17","129.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.16830444,"y":129.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"available, the model results are compared with published peak loads and adapted as ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.77279663} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"far as possible. However, deviations of 10% or more for the base year are in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.772789} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"range of the probability. The interconnection capacities between sub-regions are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.772789} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"simplified assumptions based on current practices in liberalized power markets, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.772789} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"include cross-border trade (e.g., between Canada and the USA) (C2ES ","dir":"ltr","width":"296.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.772789} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","350.21","69.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":350.20831298,"y":69.772789} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":") or ","dir":"ltr","width":"19.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.21","69.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.20831298,"y":69.772789} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.70","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","80.03","428.87"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":80.02500152,"y":428.87319946} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"20,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.36","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","63.52","453.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":63.52425003,"y":453.15820312} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"40,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.36","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","63.52","477.44"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":63.52425003,"y":477.44320678} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"60,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.36","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","63.52","501.72"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":63.52425003,"y":501.72155761} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"80,000","dir":"ltr","width":"20.36","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","63.52","526.01"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":63.52425003,"y":526.01324462} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"100,000","dir":"ltr","width":"24.07","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","59.88","550.30"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":59.87517166,"y":550.29821777} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"120,000","dir":"ltr","width":"24.07","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","59.88","574.58"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":59.87517166,"y":574.58325195} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"140,000","dir":"ltr","width":"24.07","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","59.87","598.87"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":59.8736,"y":598.86682128} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","108.80","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":108.8007965,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","121.01","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":121.00656127,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","133.21","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":133.21232604,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","157.63","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":157.63050842,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","169.84","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":169.8362732,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","182.04","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":182.0420227,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","206.46","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":206.46022033,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","218.67","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":218.6659851,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","230.88","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":230.8784027,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","255.29","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":255.28993225,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","267.50","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":267.49569702,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","279.70","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":279.70144653,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","304.11","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":304.11297607,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","316.32","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":316.31872558,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.73","height":"6.66","transform":["0.00","6.66","-6.66","0.00","328.53","411.06"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":328.53115844,"y":411.06021118} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"14.81","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","111.71","401.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":111.70510101,"y":400.99719238} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"14.81","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","160.54","401.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":160.54147338,"y":400.99719238} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"14.81","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","209.37","401.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":209.3711853,"y":400.99719238} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"14.81","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","258.21","401.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":258.20755004,"y":400.99719238} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"14.81","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","307.04","401.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":307.03726196,"y":400.99719238} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"PJ/yr","dir":"ltr","width":"15.55","height":"6.36","transform":["0.00","6.36","-6.36","0.00","59.29","508.64"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":59.28620147,"y":508.63589477} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"net electricity","dir":"ltr","width":"42.93","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","569.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":568.99908447} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"imports","dir":"ltr","width":"24.42","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","561.86"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":561.86071777} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"31.46","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","549.36"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":549.35748291} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Ocean energy","dir":"ltr","width":"44.04","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","537.52"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":537.51818847} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","525.67"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":525.6704712} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Solar","dir":"ltr","width":"16.65","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","513.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":513.83117675} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"27.75","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","501.99"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":501.9921875} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Wind","dir":"ltr","width":"16.17","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","490.15"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":490.14819335} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"19.24","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","341.47","478.31"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KdpvhgSmypltQjpwlrArialBold","x":341.4696045,"y":478.3092041} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"Natural 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8.25","dir":"ltr","width":"31.72","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","380.60"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83160018,"y":380.60269165} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","91.28","380.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.2826004,"y":380.60269165} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"carrier in the scenarios (including electricity import balance)","dir":"ltr","width":"206.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","370.61"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.83160018,"y":370.60668945} {"page":269,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"221","dir":"ltr","width":"12.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.13","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.13330078,"y":623.65332031} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"within the European Union (EU). The EU set a target of 10% interconnection capac","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":597.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"ity between their member states in 2002 (EU-EG ","dir":"ltr","width":"195.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","249.52","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.51829528,"y":585.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"). The interconnection capac","dir":"ltr","width":"112.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.52","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.51831054,"y":585.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":585.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"ities for sub-regions that are not geographically connected are set to zero for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"entire modelling period, even when there is current discussion about the implemen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":561.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"tation of new interconnections, such as for the ASEAN Power Grid (ASEAN-CE ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"8.5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","493.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"226.38","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","493.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"The OECD North America region includes Canada, the USA, and Mexico, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"therefore contains more than one large electricity market. Although the power sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":453.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"tor is liberalized in all three countries, the state of implementation and the market ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"rules in place vary significantly. Even within the USA, each state has different mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":429.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"ket rules and grid regulations. Therefore, the calculated scenarios assume the prior","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":417.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"ity dispatch of all renewables and priority grid connections for new renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"power plants, and a streamlined process for required construction permits. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"power sector analysis for all regions is based on technical, not political, ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"considerations.","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"8.5.3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"269.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","333.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"The size of the renewable power market in OECD North America will increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"significantly in the 2.0 °C Scenario. The annual market for solar PV must increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"from 22.76 GW in 2020 by a factor of 5 to an average of 95 GW by 2030. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind market must expand to 35 GW by 2025, an increase from around 13 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"GW 5  years earlier. By 2050, offshore wind generation will increase to 9.7 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"annually, by a factor of 7 compared with the base year (2015). Concentrated solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"power plants will play an important role in dispatchable solar electricity generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"to supply bulk power, especially for industry and industrial process heat. The annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"market in 2030 will increase to 16 GW, compared with 1.7 GW in 2020. The 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"Scenario accelerates both the phase-out of fossil-fuel-based power generation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"the deployment of renewables—mainly solar PV and wind in the first decade—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"about 5–7 years faster than the 2.0 °C Scenario (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"218.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"8.18","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","272.19","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.18630981,"y":177.15977478} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","289.69","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":289.68630981,"y":177.15977478} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"8.5.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: Utilization of Power-Generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","141.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":141.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"44.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","129.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":129.15979003} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"8.19","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","79.94","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.93830108,"y":105.1597824} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":" shows the increasing shares of variable renewable power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.44","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.43830108,"y":105.1597824} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"across all North American regions. Whereas Alaska and Canada are dominated by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"variable wind power generation, Mexico and the sunny mid-west of the USA have ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"significant contributions from CSP. Solar PV is distributed evenly across the entire ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":270,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"222","dir":"ltr","width":"12.72","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"region. Onshore and offshore wind penetration is highest in rural areas, whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","354.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":354.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"solar roof-top power generation is highest in suburban regions where roof space and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand from residential buildings correlate best. The south-west of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"USA will have the highest share of variable renewables—mainly solar PV for resid","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":318.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":318.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"ual homes and office buildings, connected to battery systems. There are no struc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","306.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14230346,"y":306.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"tural differences between the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios, except faster ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"implementation in the latter. It is assumed that all regions will have an interconnec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","282.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":282.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"tion capacity of 20% of the regional average load, with which to exchange renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","270.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12728881,"y":270.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"able and dispatch electricity to neighbouring regions.","dir":"ltr","width":"212.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"Capacity factors for the five generation types and the resulting average utiliza","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","246.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":246.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","246.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":246.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"tion are shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"99.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"8.20","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","154.29","234.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.28829956,"y":234.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":". Compared with the global average, North America ","dir":"ltr","width":"217.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","171.79","234.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.78829956,"y":234.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"will start with a capacity factor for limited dispatchable generation of about 10% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"over the global average. By 2050, the average capacity factor across all power-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","210.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":210.07330322} {"page":271,"change":"none","str":"generation types will be 29% for both scenarios. 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{"page":273,"change":"none","str":"20%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","140.28","346.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.28220937000012,"y":346.44146332999975} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"55%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","140.28","401.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.28220937000012,"y":401.90395721999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"25%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","140.28","442.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.28220937000012,"y":442.7634542899998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"19%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","140.28","487.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.28220937000012,"y":487.43944916999976} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"20%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","140.28","549.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.28220937000012,"y":549.2854574699998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America","dir":"ltr","width":"76.01","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","152.11","71.21"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.11421010000012,"y":71.21145233999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","152.11","186.53"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.11421010000012,"y":186.53097137999976} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"7%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.33","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","152.11","209.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.11421010000012,"y":209.2004660099998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"35%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","152.11","251.98"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.11421010000012,"y":251.98096832999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"58%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","152.11","296.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.11421010000012,"y":296.6569784599998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","186.53"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":186.53097137999976} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"48%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","209.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":209.2004660099998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"30%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","251.98"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":251.98096832999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"23%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","296.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":296.6569784599998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"59%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","401.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":401.90395721999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"27%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","442.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":442.7634542899998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"15%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","163.95","487.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":163.94621083000013,"y":487.43947967999975} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","186.54"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":186.53944000999974} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"68%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","209.21"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":209.20894990999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"19%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","251.99"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":251.98945221999975} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"13%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","296.67"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":296.66546234999976} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"68%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","401.91"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":401.91244110999975} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"21%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","442.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":442.7719687099998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"11%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","175.78","487.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.7782115700001,"y":487.4479635699998} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.19","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.65","68.67"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":59.65121267000011,"y":68.66993316999977} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"(continued)","dir":"ltr","width":"39.19","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.65","111.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":59.65121267000011,"y":111.62043365999976} {"page":273,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.0001048800001,"y":623.6532553199997} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"225","dir":"ltr","width":"12.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.71","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.71340942,"y":623.65332031} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"can become negative. If this happens, the surplus generation can either be exported ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","332.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":332.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"to other regions, stored, or curtailed. The export of load to other regions requires ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","320.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":320.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"transmission lines. If the theoretical utilization rate of transmission cables (= inter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","308.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":308.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","308.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":308.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"connection) exceeds 100%, the transport capacity must be increased. We assume ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","296.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":296.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"that the entire load need not be exported, and that surplus generation capacities can ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","284.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":284.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"be curtailed because interconnections are costly and require a certain level of utili","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","272.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":272.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","272.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":272.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"zation to make them economically viable. An analysis of the economic viability of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","260.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":260.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"new interconnections and their optimal transmission capacities is beyond the scope ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","248.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":248.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"of this research project.","dir":"ltr","width":"93.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","236.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":236.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"In Alaska in the 2.0 °C Scenario, for example, generation and demand are bal","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","224.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":224.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","224.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21328735,"y":224.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"anced in 2020 and 2030, but peak generation is substantially higher than demand in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","212.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":212.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, a significant level of overproduction is achieved by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","200.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":200.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"2030. In the two scenarios, the surplus peak generation is equally high. These results ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","188.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":188.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"have been calculated under the assumption that surplus generation will be stored in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","176.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":176.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"a cascade of batteries and pumped-storage hydroelectricity (PSH) or used to pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","164.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":164.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","164.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":164.42330932} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"duce hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels. Therefore, the maximal interconnection ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","152.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":152.42329406} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"requirements shown in this chapter represent the maximum surplus generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","140.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":140.42329406} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"capacity. To avoid curtailment, these overcapacities have mainly been used for ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","128.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":128.42329406} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen production. Therefore, Alaska could remain an energy exporter but switch ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","116.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":116.4233017} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"from oil to wind-generated synthetic gas and/or hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"232.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","104.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":104.4233017} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","92.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":92.4233017} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"8.22","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.22","92.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.21829986,"y":92.4233017} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the calculated storage and dispatch power ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.72","92.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.71829986,"y":92.4233017} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"requirements by sub-region. To store or export the entire electricity output during ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","80.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":80.4233017} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.20","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"OECD North America: capacity factors by generation type","dir":"ltr","width":"199.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":274,"change":"none","str":"Utilization of 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{"page":278,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85832296000008,"y":623.6534804699999} {"page":278,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60832296000008,"y":623.6534804699999} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"230","dir":"ltr","width":"12.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"each production peak would require significant additional investment. Therefore, it ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"is assumed that not all surplus solar and wind generation must be stored, and that up ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"to 5% (in 2030) and 10% (in 2050) of the annual production can be curtailed with","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":573.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"out significant economic disadvantage. We assume that regions with favourable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"wind and solar potentials, and advantages regarding available space, will use their ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"overcapacities to export electricity via transmission lines and/or to produce syn","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2033081,"y":537.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"thetic and/or hydrogen fuels. ","dir":"ltr","width":"117.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"The southern part of the USA will achieve a significant solar PV share by 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"and storage demand will be highest in this region. Storage and dispatch demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"increase in all sub-regions between 2025 and 2035. Before 2025, storage demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"will be zero in all regions.","dir":"ltr","width":"104.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"8.6","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","433.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":433.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"Latin America","dir":"ltr","width":"74.33","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","433.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":433.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","407.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":407.15579223} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Long-Term Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"222.53","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","407.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":407.15579223} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","383.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":383.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Final Energy Demand by Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"204.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","383.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":383.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"Combining the assumptions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy inten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","359.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":359.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","359.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":359.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"sity will produce the future development pathways for Latin America’s final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","347.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":347.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"demand shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"91.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","335.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":335.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"8.26","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","145.40","335.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":145.39830017,"y":335.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":" for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios. Under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"225.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.90","335.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.89830017,"y":335.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 70% from the cur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","323.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":323.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","323.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":323.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"rent 19,200 PJ/year to 32,600 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the final ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","311.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":311.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"energy demand will decrease by 11% compared with current consumption and will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","299.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":299.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"reach 17,000 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","287.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":287.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"fall to 15,800 PJ in 2050, 18% below the 2015 demand. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","275.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":275.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"final energy demand in 2050 will be 7% lower than in the 2.0  °C Scenario. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","263.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":263.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-to-heat or ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","251.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":251.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"e-mobility) will increase from 740 TWh/year in 2015 to around 1560 TWh/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","239.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":239.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"2050 in both alternative scenarios, around 300 TWh/year lower than in the 5.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","227.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":227.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"Scenario (1860 TWh/year in 2050).","dir":"ltr","width":"142.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","215.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":215.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","203.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":203.15979003} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be about 600 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","191.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":191.15977478} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","179.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":179.15977478} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"increase of approximately 1700 TWh/year will be caused by electric mobility. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","167.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":167.15977478} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"generation of hydrogen (for transport and high-temperature process heat) and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","155.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":155.15977478} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly for transport) will add an additional power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","143.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":143.15977478} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"demand of 600 TWh/year. The gross power demand will thus increase from 1300 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","131.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":131.15977478} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year in 2015 to 3500 TWh/year in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario, 25% higher ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","119.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.1597824} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"than in the 5.0  °C case. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the gross electricity demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","107.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":107.1597824} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"increase to a maximum of 3800 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"204.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","95.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":95.1597824} {"page":279,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"231","dir":"ltr","width":"11.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.24","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.23779296,"y":623.65332031} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","455.61"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":455.61179659000004} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"50","dir":"ltr","width":"7.79","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","473.40"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":473.40299532} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","364.32","473.40"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":364.32019325,"y":473.40299532} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"1,00","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","491.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":491.19419405} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","491.19"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":491.19419405} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"1,50","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","508.99"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":508.98539279000005} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","508.99"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":508.98539279000005} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"2,00","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","526.78"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":526.77656101} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","526.78"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":526.77656101} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"2,50","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","544.57"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":544.5678207600001} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","544.57"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":544.5678207600001} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"3,00","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","562.36"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":562.35901949} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","562.36"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":562.35901949} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"3,50","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","580.15"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":580.1502182199999} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","580.15"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":580.1502182199999} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"4,00","dir":"ltr","width":"13.60","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","356.53","597.93"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":356.53030678000005,"y":597.9282333599999} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","370.20","597.93"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":370.19827553000005,"y":597.9282333599999} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.97","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","85.58","455.61"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":85.57850167,"y":455.61179659000004} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"5,000","dir":"ltr","width":"17.49","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","72.10","475.94"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":72.09599587,"y":475.93543551000005} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"10,000","dir":"ltr","width":"21.39","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","68.24","496.27"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":68.24385353,"y":496.26618502} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"15,000","dir":"ltr","width":"21.39","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","68.24","516.59"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":68.24385353,"y":516.58979342} {"page":280,"change":"none","str":"20,000","dir":"ltr","width":"21.39","height":"7.13","transform":["7.13","0.00","0.00","7.13","68.24","536.93"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WhlvpcDpsfwkTwgnpdArialBold","x":68.24385353,"y":536.92768404} 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{"page":281,"change":"none","str":"Lignite","dir":"ltr","width":"19.16","height":"5.85","transform":["5.85","0.00","0.00","5.85","346.22","123.36"],"fontName":"RZTODG+QgvjxhNvqcwhGhryghArialBold","x":346.21997495999864,"y":123.36348658000051} {"page":281,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"12.67","height":"5.85","transform":["5.85","0.00","0.00","5.85","346.22","115.28"],"fontName":"RZTODG+QgvjxhNvqcwhGhryghArialBold","x":346.21997495999864,"y":115.2754815100005} {"page":281,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.27","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85805936999867,"y":69.1520836800005} {"page":281,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"267.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","69.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39956327999867,"y":69.1520836800005} {"page":281,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.99985166999863,"y":623.6534035700006} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"233","dir":"ltr","width":"12.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.97","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.97009277,"y":623.65332031} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"ocean energy, in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will lead ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"to a high proportion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 31% and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"39%, respectively, by 2030, and 52% and 57%, respectively, by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"278.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"231.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","537.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"8.28","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.23","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.228302,"y":513.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":513.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"over time, including CO","dir":"ltr","width":"105.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","159.11","499.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.11360168,"y":499.65979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, under all scenarios. The calculated ","dir":"ltr","width":"228.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.11","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.11360168,"y":501.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"43.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85359954,"y":489.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.5 ct/kWh. ","dir":"ltr","width":"290.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.17","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.17359924,"y":489.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 8.3 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85359954,"y":477.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"ct/kWh. The generation costs in the 2.0 °C Scenario will increase until 2030, when ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85359954,"y":465.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"they reach 7 ct/kWh, and will then drop to 5.9 ct/kWh by 2050. 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The long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 5% lower in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85359954,"y":321.15979003} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.10","height":"7.38","transform":["7.37","0.00","0.00","7.38","359.97","152.44"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":359.97241118,"y":152.44059451999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"4.10","height":"7.38","transform":["7.37","0.00","0.00","7.38","359.97","167.88"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":359.97241118,"y":167.87981875999998} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"4.10","height":"7.38","transform":["7.37","0.00","0.00","7.38","359.97","183.31"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":359.97241118,"y":183.31167300999996} 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{"page":282,"change":"none","str":"ct","dir":"ltr","width":"8.84","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","379.51","208.28"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":379.50738433000004,"y":208.28370364999998} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"/k","dir":"ltr","width":"7.62","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","379.51","216.53"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":379.50738433000004,"y":216.53112490999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Wh","dir":"ltr","width":"14.85","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","379.51","224.22"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":379.50738433000004,"y":224.21954043999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"5.60","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","62.13","205.49"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":62.13079741000001,"y":205.49369510999998} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"illi","dir":"ltr","width":"13.05","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","62.13","211.21"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":62.13079741000001,"y":211.21191104999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"on ","dir":"ltr","width":"13.95","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","62.13","223.56"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":62.13079741000001,"y":223.55555423999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"5.10","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","62.13","236.86"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":62.13079741000001,"y":236.86138614999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.70","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","87.25","139.13"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":87.25340178,"y":139.12559208999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures 2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"87.01","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","250.32","139.13"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":250.32339385,"y":139.12559208999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.70","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","87.25","126.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":87.25340178,"y":126.00259860999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"87.01","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","250.32","126.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":250.32339385,"y":126.00259860999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"17.70","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","250.32","112.89"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":250.32339385,"y":112.89159854999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"134.78","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","87.25","112.81"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":87.25340178,"y":112.80759890999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"134.78","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","250.32","99.77"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":250.32339385,"y":99.76659854999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"134.78","height":"7.05","transform":["7.05","0.00","0.00","7.05","87.25","99.69"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WpjppmBnybkhSqjfwsArialBold","x":87.25340942000001,"y":99.69059451999998} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.28","dir":"ltr","width":"31.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","79.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85830597000002,"y":79.15199740999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"294.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","91.33","79.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.33480744000002,"y":79.15199740999996} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"110.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830597000002,"y":69.15599520999997} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830597000002,"y":623.6533173} {"page":282,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60830597000002,"y":623.6533173} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"234","dir":"ltr","width":"12.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21429443,"y":597.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"tion costs and the electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"synthetic fuel generation in the 1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"costs that are similar to the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"157.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","547.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":547.65979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":549.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 7.1 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":537.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, they will increase until 2030, when they will reach 6.6 ct/kWh, and then ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":525.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"drop to 5.9 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 6.5 ct/kWh ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":513.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"and then drop to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":501.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"will be maximum, at 0.25 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case, in 2030 (0.1 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":489.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario). The generation costs in 2050 will again be lower in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":477.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios than in the 5.0 °C case: 1.2 ct/kWh in the 2.0 °C Scenario and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":465.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"1.5 ct/kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario. If CO","dir":"ltr","width":"160.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":453.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","214.04","451.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.0401001,"y":451.65979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":" costs are not considered, the total electric","dir":"ltr","width":"165.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","217.04","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.0401001,"y":453.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.190094,"y":453.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"ity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to about $210 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"329.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":441.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86008834,"y":405.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"236.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","405.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36009216,"y":405.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"An investment of about $1920 billion will be required for power generation between ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":381.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"2015 and 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, including additional power plants for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":369.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replacement ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":357.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"after the ends of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately $53 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":345.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"billion per year, on average, which is $880 billion more than in the 5.0  °C case ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":333.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"($1040 billion). An investment of around $2190 billion for power generation will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":321.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this will be an ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":309.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"investment of $61 billion per year. Under the 5.0  °C Scenario, the investment in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":297.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"conventional power plants will be around 25% of the total cumulative investments, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":285.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"whereas approximately 75% will be invested in renewable power generation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":273.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"79.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":261.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"8.29","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","133.01","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":133.01008605,"y":261.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.51","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.51008605,"y":261.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"However, under the 2.0  °C (1.5  °C) Scenario, Latin America will shift almost ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86009216,"y":249.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"94% (95%) of its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":237.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"fossil fuel share of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":225.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"215.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":213.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86009216,"y":201.15979003} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $820 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":189.15977478} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $23 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":177.15977478} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 90% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86008834,"y":165.15977478} {"page":283,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. 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Hydrogen consumption in 2050 will be around 200 PJ/year in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.38"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858409829999516,"y":151.38462273000013} {"page":285,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and 400 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.38"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858409829999516,"y":139.38462273000013} {"page":285,"change":"none","str":"for heating will also increase by a factor of 2–4 between 2015 and 2050 and will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.38"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858409829999516,"y":127.38462273000013} {"page":285,"change":"none","str":"attain a final energy share of 20% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 39% in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.38"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858409829999516,"y":115.38462273000013} {"page":285,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"65.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.38"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858409829999516,"y":103.38462273000013} {"page":285,"change":"none","str":"S. 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The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":513.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"nologies, but due to the lower heat demand, the average annual investment will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"again be around $16 billion per year (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"169.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"8.31","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","222.95","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.94830322,"y":489.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":", Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"29.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","240.45","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.44830322,"y":489.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"8.25","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.74","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.73831176,"y":489.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.24","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.23831176,"y":489.15979003} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.94","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","216.75","308.02"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":216.7480011,"y":308.0249939} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"39.20","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","211.11","299.64"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":211.1132965,"y":299.64215087} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"90%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","223.73","291.26"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":223.7303009,"y":291.25930786} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"34.93","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","268.10","370.09"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":268.10281372,"y":370.09292602} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"heat use","dir":"ltr","width":"26.78","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","272.17","361.71"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":272.17349243,"y":361.71011352} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.09","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","280.52","353.33"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":280.5173645,"y":353.3272705} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"17.07","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","251.94","416.35"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":251.938797,"y":416.34524536} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"collector","dir":"ltr","width":"26.00","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","245.73","407.96"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":245.73153686,"y":407.96243286} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.49","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","271.73","407.96"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":271.73361206,"y":407.96243286} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"10%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","253.50","399.58"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":253.4958496,"y":399.57958984} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"15.53","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","220.15","443.22"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":220.1459961,"y":443.2203064} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"20.95","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","217.43","434.84"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":217.43200683,"y":434.8374939} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.09","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","222.86","426.45"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":222.86424255,"y":426.45465087} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"62.63","height":"7.98","transform":["7.98","0.00","0.00","7.98","134.85","440.15"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":134.8486023,"y":440.14950561} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"total 115 billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"52.40","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","181.06","366.92"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":181.06199645,"y":366.92099} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.94","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","171.94","239.62"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":171.94200134,"y":239.61799621} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"39.20","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","166.31","231.24"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":166.30729675,"y":231.2351532} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"28%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","178.92","222.85"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":178.92430114,"y":222.85232543} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"geothermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.87","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","147.03","158.54"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":147.02915954,"y":158.54196166} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"heat use","dir":"ltr","width":"26.78","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","152.07","150.16"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":152.07037353,"y":150.15911865} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"7%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.09","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","160.42","141.78"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":160.42120361,"y":141.77627563} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"17.07","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","62.98","164.14"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":62.98321151,"y":164.14448547} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"collectors","dir":"ltr","width":"29.49","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","56.78","155.76"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":56.77595138,"y":155.76164245} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"37%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","64.53","147.38"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":64.53327941,"y":147.3788147} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"heat pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"36.48","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","98.06","269.82"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":98.05531311,"y":269.82415771} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"28%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","109.31","261.44"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":109.31076812,"y":261.4413147} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"62.63","height":"7.98","transform":["7.98","0.00","0.00","7.98","53.83","281.90"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":53.83300018,"y":281.90301513} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"total 581 billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"52.40","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","91.15","204.76"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":91.14839935,"y":204.76100158} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.94","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","351.94","233.32"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":351.93798828,"y":233.31990051} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"39.20","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","346.30","224.94"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":346.30499267,"y":224.93699645} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"25%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","358.92","216.55"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":358.92099,"y":216.55400085} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"geothermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.87","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","337.51","164.84"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":337.50628662,"y":164.83886718} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"heat use","dir":"ltr","width":"26.78","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","342.55","156.46"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":342.54748535,"y":156.45602416} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"7%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.09","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","350.89","148.07"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":350.89135742,"y":148.07318115} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"17.07","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","251.71","155.51"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":251.71476745,"y":155.50596618} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"collector","dir":"ltr","width":"26.00","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","245.51","147.12"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":245.50749206,"y":147.12312316} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.49","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","271.51","147.12"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":271.50958251,"y":147.12312316} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"39%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","253.27","138.74"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":253.2669983,"y":138.73599243} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"heat pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"36.48","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","242.01","258.02"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":242.01100158,"y":258.02288818} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"29%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.97","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","253.27","249.64"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":253.26646423,"y":249.64004516} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"62.63","height":"7.98","transform":["7.98","0.00","0.00","7.98","215.97","276.23"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":215.9730072,"y":276.23388671} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"total 573 billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"52.40","height":"6.99","transform":["6.98","0.00","0.00","6.99","271.73","204.05"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+HgjmcdSvyrpsKxvdpnArialMT","x":271.73098754,"y":204.05200195} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.31","dir":"ltr","width":"30.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","118.58"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83300018,"y":118.57649993} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: development of investments for renewable heat generation technologies ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.23","118.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.23000335,"y":118.57649993} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"52.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","108.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.83300018,"y":108.58049774} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":286,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"238","dir":"ltr","width":"12.60","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"110.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","367.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector in Latin America is expected to increase by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"63% under the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 7100 PJ/year in 2015 to 11,700 PJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"changes will save 69% (8090 PJ/year) by 2050 relative to the 5.0  °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in transport demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"will lead to even greater energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 77% (or 9040 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"8.26","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.29","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.2862854,"y":271.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.79","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.7862854,"y":271.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"8.32","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","303.13","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.12631225,"y":271.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","320.63","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.62631225,"y":271.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 6% (110 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","259.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":259.41378784} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand under the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"47% (470 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 480 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"transport sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"annual electricity demand will be 390 TWh in 2050. The 1.5  °C Scenario also ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"assumes a hydrogen demand of 430 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"212.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 1340 PJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","187.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":187.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"Around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be introduced, with a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"maximum of 190 PJ/year by 2050. Due to the lower overall energy demand in trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","163.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":163.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"port, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maximum of 1030 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"year The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 350 PJ/year.","dir":"ltr","width":"281.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.41377258} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":103.41378021} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"151.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","103.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":103.41378021} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","243.31","101.91"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":243.3065033,"y":101.9138031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.31","103.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":246.3065033,"y":103.4138031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Latin America’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"199.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85649871,"y":79.4138031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","253.67","77.91"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.66810607,"y":77.9138031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":" emissions will increase by 48%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"130.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.67","79.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.66809082,"y":79.4138031} {"page":287,"change":"none","str":"from 1220 Mt. in 2015 to 1806 Mt. in 2050. 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{"page":288,"change":"none","str":"/y","dir":"ltr","width":"6.73","height":"7.51","transform":["0.00","7.51","-7.51","0.00","60.28","314.88"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":60.275874840000455,"y":314.87581174000024} {"page":288,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"2.92","height":"7.51","transform":["0.00","7.51","-7.51","0.00","60.28","321.28"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":60.275874840000455,"y":321.28184812000023} {"page":288,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency (compared","dir":"ltr","width":"58.40","height":"5.77","transform":["5.77","0.00","0.00","5.77","327.12","343.09"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":327.11758778000046,"y":343.0936462200002} {"page":288,"change":"none","str":"to 5.0°C)","dir":"ltr","width":"23.48","height":"5.77","transform":["5.77","0.00","0.00","5.77","327.12","336.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+MwrdqvHvlqbpVxjfsfArialBold","x":327.11758778000046,"y":336.16493528000024} 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{"page":289,"change":"none","str":"8.6.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.77"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":330.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"197.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","330.77"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":330.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption under the three scenarios when the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"assumptions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"284.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"8.34","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.18","294.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.1783142,"y":294.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":". In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"31.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","356.68","294.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.6783142,"y":294.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 2%, from around ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"28,400 PJ/year in 2015 to 27,900 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the overall primary energy demand will decrease by 38% in 2050 in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C Scenario (5.0  °C: 45000 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the primary ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"energy demand will be even lower (25,700 PJ in 2050) because the final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"demand and conversion losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"177.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","210.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":210.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 55% in 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"94% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will also ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","186.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":186.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"have a primary energy share of more than 94% in 2050 (including non-energy con-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"sumption, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.77270507} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"by 2035 under both the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","114.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":114.77269744} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"130 EJ, the cumulative coal demand to 20 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 200 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","102.77"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":102.77269744} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","368.32","464.49"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":368.32031719,"y":464.49020701999996} {"page":289,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"6.87","height":"6.29","transform":["6.29","0.00","0.00","6.29","368.32","486.84"],"fontName":"RZTODG+BxmbvdKngwykVbjjdfArialBold","x":368.32031719,"y":486.84155589999995} 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The mainland of South America has ","dir":"ltr","width":"163.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","225.75","157.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.7472992,"y":157.91799926} {"page":290,"change":"none","str":"been subdivided into the large economic centres of Chile, Argentina, and Brazil, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.91799926} {"page":290,"change":"none","str":"Central America and the northern part of South America have been clustered into ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.91799926} {"page":290,"change":"none","str":"two parts.","dir":"ltr","width":"39.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","121.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":121.91799926} {"page":290,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":290,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"242","dir":"ltr","width":"12.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"8.6.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"236.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"The most important future renewable technologies for Latin America are solar PV ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"and onshore wind, followed by CSP (which will be especially suited to the Atacama ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Desert in Chile) and offshore wind, mainly in the coastal areas of Brazil and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Argentina. The annual market for solar PV must increase from 6.5 GW in 2020 by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"a factor of three to an average of 15.5 GW by 2030 under the 2.0 °C Scenario and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"to around 23 GW under the 1.5 °C Scenario. The onshore wind market in the 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Scenario must increase to 15 GW by 2025, compared with the average annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind market of around 3 GW between 2014 and 2017 (GWEC ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","345.20","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.19830322,"y":489.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"). By ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.20","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.19830322,"y":489.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"2050, offshore wind will have increased to a moderate annual new installation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"capacity of around 2–3 GW from 2025 to 2050  in both scenarios. Concentrated ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"solar power plants will be limited to the desert regions of South America, especially ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Chile. The market for biofuels for electricity generation will play an important role ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"in all agricultural areas, including the Caribbean and Central America, where most ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"geothermal resources are located (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"8.27","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.50","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.49630737,"y":417.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.00","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.99630737,"y":417.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"8.6.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"251.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","381.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"8.28","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.74","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.7382965,"y":357.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":" shows that our modelling assumes that for the entire modelling period, ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.24","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.2382965,"y":357.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"there will be no interconnection capacity between the Caribbean, Central America, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"and South America, whereas the interconnection capacity in the rest of South ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":291,"change":"none","str":"America will increase to 15% by 2030 and to 20% by 2050. 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{"page":293,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.28","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.64","69.22"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":59.64402003000012,"y":69.22418208000013} {"page":293,"change":"none","str":"(continued)","dir":"ltr","width":"39.19","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.64","112.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":59.64402003000012,"y":112.17468257000013} {"page":293,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00011058000007,"y":623.6533050100002} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"245","dir":"ltr","width":"12.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.75","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.75079345,"y":623.65332031} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"renewables are almost identical in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The lowest rates ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","338.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":338.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"of variable renewables are in central South America and Central America because ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","326.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":326.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"the onshore wind potential is limited by average wind speeds that are lower than ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","314.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":314.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"elsewhere. Compared with all the other world regions, Latin America has the high","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","302.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":302.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","302.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19329833,"y":302.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"est share of dispatchable renewables, mainly attributable to existing hydropower ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","290.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":290.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"plants.","dir":"ltr","width":"26.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","278.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":278.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"Compared with other regions of the world, Latin America currently has a small ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","266.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":266.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"fleet of coal and nuclear power plants, but they are operated with a high capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","254.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":254.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"factor (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","242.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":242.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"8.29","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.50","242.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.49829864,"y":242.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"). The dispatch order for all world regions in all cases is assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"263.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.00","242.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.99829864,"y":242.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"to be the same, to make the results comparable. Therefore, the capacity factors of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","230.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":230.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"these dispatch power plants (mainly gas) will increase at the expense of those for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","218.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":218.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"coal and nuclear power plants, which explains the rapid reduction in the capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","206.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":206.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"factor in 2020. Therefore, this effect is the result of the assumed dispatch order, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","194.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":194.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"rather than of an increase in variable power generation.","dir":"ltr","width":"220.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","182.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":182.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"8.6.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","146.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":146.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: Development of Load, Generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","146.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":146.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"and Residual Load","dir":"ltr","width":"80.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","134.03"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":134.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"The sub-regions of Latin America are highly diverse in their geographic features ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","110.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":110.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"and population densities, so the maximum loads in the different sub-regions vary ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","98.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":98.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"widely. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","86.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":86.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"8.30","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.23","86.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.228302,"y":86.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":" shows that the sub-region with the smallest calculated maximum ","dir":"ltr","width":"261.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","126.73","86.03"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.728302,"y":86.0302124} {"page":294,"change":"none","str":"load is Uruguay, with only 2.3 GW, which seems realistic because the maximum 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{"page":297,"change":"none","str":"load was 1.7 GW in 2012 according to IDB (","dir":"ltr","width":"179.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.09","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.0933075,"y":597.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"). Brazil, Uruguay’s direct neigh","dir":"ltr","width":"129.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","253.09","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.0933075,"y":597.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":597.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"bour, has the largest load of close to 100 GW, which will increase by a factor of 2.5 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"to around 250 GW by 2050 under both scenarios. Brazil’s maximum generation will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"increase accordingly, without significant overproduction peaks. The calculated ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"maximum increase in interconnection required is only 10 GW. In Argentina, peak ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"generation matches peak demand because Argentina has one of the best wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"resources in the world in Patagonia. Surplus wind power can either be exported after ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"a significant increase in transmission capacity or, as assumed in our scenario, it can ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"be used to produce synthetic and hydrogen fuels.","dir":"ltr","width":"195.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"8.31","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.22","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.21829986,"y":489.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the calculated storage and dispatch power ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.72","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.71829986,"y":489.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"requirements by sub-region. As indicated in the introduction to the Latin America ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"results, the storage requirements for the Caribbean might be high because the region ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"cannot exchange solar or wind electricity with other sub-regions. However, all other ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"sub-regions contain either several countries or larger provinces, so they are more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"suited to the integration of variable electricity. Compared with other world regions, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"Latin America has one of the lowest storage capacities and one of the lowest needs ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"for additional dispatch. This is because the region’s installed capacity of hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":405.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"power is high. However, this research does not include a water resource assessment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"for hydropower plants. Droughts may increase the demand for storage and/or hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":381.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"gen dispatch.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"8.7","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","325.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":325.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe","dir":"ltr","width":"75.46","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","325.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":325.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","299.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":299.15579223} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Long-Term Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"224.30","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","299.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":299.15579223} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","275.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":275.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Final Energy Demand by Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"205.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","275.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":275.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"Combining the assumptions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy inten","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","251.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":251.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","251.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":251.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"sity produces the future development pathways for OECD Europe’s final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","239.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":239.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"demand shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"94.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","227.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":227.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"8.35","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","149.56","227.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.55830383,"y":227.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":" for the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and 1.5  °C Scenarios. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"222.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.06","227.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.05830383,"y":227.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 9%, from the current ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","215.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":215.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"46,000 PJ/year to 50,000 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","203.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":203.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"demand will decrease by 39% compared with current consumption and will reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","191.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":191.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"28,000 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the 1.5 °C Scenario will reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","179.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":179.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"25,200 PJ, 45% below the 2015 demand. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","167.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":167.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"demand in 2050 will be 10% lower than in the 2.0  °C Scenario. The electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","155.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":155.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-to-heat or e-mobility) will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","143.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":143.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"decrease from 2300 TWh/year in 2015 to 2040 TWh/year by 2050 in both alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","131.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":131.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","131.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14129638,"y":131.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"tive scenarios. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (3200 TWh/year in 2050), the effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","119.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","119.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":119.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"ciency measures implemented in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios will save 1160 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","107.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":107.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"75.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","95.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":95.15979003} {"page":297,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":298,"change":"none","str":"249","dir":"ltr","width":"12.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.69","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.6913147,"y":623.65332031} {"page":298,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.31","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.67","69.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":59.67380142,"y":69.15200042} {"page":298,"change":"none","str":"Latin America: storage and dispatch service requirements in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"314.17","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.67","111.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":59.67380142,"y":111.88999938} 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{"page":300,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"3.24","height":"8.32","transform":["0.00","8.32","-8.32","0.00","61.00","534.49"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":60.99500174000013,"y":534.4885253899998} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Transport fuel","dir":"ltr","width":"47.34","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","87.96","406.57"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":87.96330542000013,"y":406.5661010599999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.92","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","135.31","406.57"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":135.31102271000012,"y":406.5661010599999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Transport electricity","dir":"ltr","width":"67.70","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","242.18","406.57"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":242.17830176000012,"y":406.5661010599999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Industry fuel","dir":"ltr","width":"42.26","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","87.96","394.38"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":87.96330542000013,"y":394.3841857899999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.92","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","130.23","394.38"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":130.22699255000012,"y":394.3841857899999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Industry electricity","dir":"ltr","width":"62.61","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","242.18","394.38"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":242.17830176000012,"y":394.3841857899999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Residential & other sectors fuels","dir":"ltr","width":"109.57","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","87.96","382.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":87.96330542000013,"y":382.2011108199999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Residential & other sectors electricity","dir":"ltr","width":"126.01","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","242.18","382.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":242.17830176000012,"y":382.2011108199999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2)","dir":"ltr","width":"135.78","height":"7.04","transform":["7.04","0.00","0.00","7.04","87.96","370.01"],"fontName":"RZTODG+LrvhtlKgrxgvMtytqgArialBold","x":87.96330542000013,"y":370.0130920299999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.35","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","349.47"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85830206000013,"y":349.4746093599999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: development in three scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"159.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","349.47"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980597000013,"y":349.4746093599999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will cause a significant increase in the electricity demand by 2050. ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","324.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85830206000013,"y":324.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will increase to approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","312.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":312.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","312.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783170100001,"y":312.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"mately 1300 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","300.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":300.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"sector, the demand will increase to approximately 2600 TWh/year in response to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","288.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":288.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"increased electric mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport and high-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","276.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":276.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"temperature process heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly for trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","264.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":264.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","264.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1683072500001,"y":264.64459226999986} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"port) will add an additional power demand of 1600 TWh/year The gross power ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","252.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":252.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"demand will thus rise from 3600 TWh/year in 2015 to 6000 TWh/year by 2050 in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","240.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":240.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario, 28% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","228.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":228.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"gross electricity demand will increase to a maximum of 6400 TWh/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"325.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","216.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":216.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency gains could be even larger in the heating sector than in the electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","204.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85830206000013,"y":204.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"sector. Under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","192.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":192.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","192.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1532926100001,"y":192.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"lent to about 6200 PJ/year and 8200 PJ/year, respectively, are avoided by efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","180.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":180.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"gains by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"201.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","168.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":168.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","132.64"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85830206000013,"y":132.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"163.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","132.64"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35830206000013,"y":132.6445922699999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","108.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":108.64459226999988} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","96.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":96.64459226999988} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","96.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831579000014,"y":96.64459226999988} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in OECD Europe will come ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","84.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":84.64459226999988} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"from renewable energy sources in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—mainly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","72.64"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":72.64459226999988} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830206000013,"y":623.6533202999999} {"page":300,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60830206000013,"y":623.6533202999999} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"252","dir":"ltr","width":"12.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 75% of the total electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"generation. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be 68% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"2030 and 89% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 1200 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"GW by 2030 and 2270 GW by 2050. The share of renewable electricity generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"in 2030 in the 1.5 °C Scenario is assumed to be 74%. The 1.5 °C Scenario will have ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"a generation capacity from renewable energy of approximately 2480 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"327.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"8.32","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.15","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.14830017,"y":525.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.65","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.64830017,"y":525.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"Europe over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"101.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"8.36","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","154.94","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":154.93829345,"y":513.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","172.44","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":172.43829345,"y":513.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"structure in OECD Europe. From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"PV, up to 790 GW and 1000 GW, respectively, will be complemented by generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"from biomass (ca. 110 GW) CSP and ocean energy (more than 50 GW each), in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":301,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"8.37","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.23","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.228302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"113.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","167.54","559.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.53979492,"y":559.65979003} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. 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{"page":302,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.15","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","357.48","207.60"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":357.48401142,"y":207.59671363999996} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"6","dir":"ltr","width":"4.15","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","357.48","229.87"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":357.48401142,"y":229.86508521999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.15","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","357.48","252.13"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":357.48401142,"y":252.13345679999998} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"8.30","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","357.48","274.40"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":357.48401142,"y":274.40182839} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"12","dir":"ltr","width":"8.30","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","357.48","296.66"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":357.48401142,"y":296.66431007999995} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.15","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","73.65","163.05"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":73.65280415000001,"y":163.05250893999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"100","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.10","182.14"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09631611,"y":182.13861426999998} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"200","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.10","201.23"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09631611,"y":201.23219643999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"300","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.10","220.32"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09631611,"y":220.31828651999996} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"400","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.10","239.41"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09631611,"y":239.41186866999996} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"500","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.10","258.50"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09631611,"y":258.49795875999996} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"600","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.10","277.59"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09631611,"y":277.59155617} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"700","dir":"ltr","width":"12.45","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","65.09","296.66"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":65.09380604,"y":296.66431007999995} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"14.10","height":"6.34","transform":["6.34","0.00","0.00","6.34","104.84","154.47"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":104.83980061000001,"y":154.46550330999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"16.61","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","159.90","154.47"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":159.90100361000003,"y":154.46550330999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"16.61","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","215.31","154.47"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":215.30916095999999,"y":154.46550330999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"16.61","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","270.72","154.47"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":270.71731831,"y":154.46550330999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"16.61","height":"7.47","transform":["7.47","0.00","0.00","7.47","326.13","154.47"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":326.1254604,"y":154.46550330999997} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"ct/kWh","dir":"ltr","width":"30.03","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","382.24","216.74"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":382.23800924,"y":216.73649940999996} {"page":302,"change":"none","str":"billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"34.62","height":"9.16","transform":["0.00","9.16","-9.16","0.00","61.85","213.94"],"fontName":"RZTODG+WmnsvfTdyjjmHbynjdArialBold","x":61.85393406000001,"y":213.94273719999998} 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The generation costs in both alternative scenarios will increase until 2030, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"when they will reach 10.3 ct/kWh, and they will drop by 2050 to 8.9 ct/kWh and 8.8 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"ct/kWh, respectively, 1.5–1.6 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"260.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"result in an increase in total electricity supply costs from today’s $270 billion/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"to more than $550 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"will be $560 billion/year and in the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will be $590 billion/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"The long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 2% higher in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"the electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and synthetic fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"generation in the 1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation costs that are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"8% higher than in the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"136.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","427.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":427.65979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":429.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":417.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, they will increase until 2030 when they reach 9.5 ct/kWh, and then ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":405.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"drop to 8.9 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 9.7 ct/kWh, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":393.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"and then drop to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":381.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"will reach a maximum of 1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case in 2030. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":369.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C Scenario, the maximum difference in generation costs compared with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":357.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario will be 1.2 ct/kWh, which will occur in 2040. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"290.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":345.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","344.85","343.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.85418701,"y":343.65979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":" costs are ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.85","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.85418701,"y":345.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":333.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"$470 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"103.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":321.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","285.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85419082,"y":285.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"237.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.35","285.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35418701,"y":285.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $4900 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":261.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":249.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments to replace plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":237.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"at the ends of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately $136 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":225.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"billion per year on average, which is $2150 billion more than in the 5.0  °C case ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":213.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"($2750 billion). An investment of around $5340 billion for power generation will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":201.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"required between 2015 and 2050 under the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":189.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"an investment of $148 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, investment in conven","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":177.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21618652,"y":177.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"tional power plants will be around 26% of the total cumulative investments, whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":165.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"approximately 74% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":153.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"66.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":141.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"8.38","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","120.23","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":120.2341919,"y":141.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","137.73","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":137.7341919,"y":141.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, OECD Europe will shift almost 96% ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85418701,"y":129.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"(97%) of its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":117.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"fuel share of the power sector investments will predominantly focus on gas power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":105.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"plants that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"188.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":93.15979003} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85418701,"y":81.1597824} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $2340 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85419082,"y":69.1597824} {"page":303,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"255","dir":"ltr","width":"12.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.95","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.94628906,"y":623.65332031} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $65 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 110% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":259.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $2600 billion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"or $72 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.34"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":199.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"183.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","199.34"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":199.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 16%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"from 20,600 PJ/year in 2015 to 24,000 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 26% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.3414917} {"page":304,"change":"none","str":"Scenario relative to that in the 5.0  °C case, and by 34% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. 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{"page":306,"change":"none","str":"1%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.66","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","359.98","232.35"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":359.97769165,"y":232.34906005} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"17.29","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","344.74","178.65"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":344.73956298,"y":178.64787292} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"collector","dir":"ltr","width":"27.78","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","337.95","169.16"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":337.94683837,"y":169.15863037} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.09","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","365.73","169.16"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":365.72659301,"y":169.15863037} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"46","dir":"ltr","width":"7.97","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","346.57","159.67"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":346.57180786,"y":159.66830444} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"%","dir":"ltr","width":"5.65","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","354.54","159.67"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":354.54275512,"y":159.66830444} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"16.31","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","244.20","250.93"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":244.20480346,"y":250.92930603} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"21.86","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","241.42","241.44"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":241.42129516,"y":241.44006347} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"51%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.67","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","245.53","231.95"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":245.52539062,"y":231.95083618} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"69.83","height":"8.90","transform":["8.90","0.00","0.00","8.90","234.89","284.35"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KkfbttBbrfprVcdjxqArialMT","x":234.88780212,"y":284.34829711} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"total 1,830 ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.56","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","275.46","209.68"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":275.45581054,"y":209.67630004} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.50","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","312.18","209.68"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":312.1791687,"y":209.67630004} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"4.01","height":"7.91","transform":["7.91","0.00","0.00","7.91","333.75","209.68"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+VrbgfkGskhskTlmjljCalibri","x":333.7513733,"y":209.67630004} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.40","dir":"ltr","width":"30.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","139.35"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":139.34880065} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.05","139.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.05130004,"y":139.34880065} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"52.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","129.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.35279846} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":306,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"258","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"111.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","367.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector in OECD Europe is expected to decrease by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"3% in the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 14,000 PJ/year in 2015 to 13,600 PJ/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"will save 69% (9460 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. Additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport demand will lead ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 76% (or 10,300 PJ/year) in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"175.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"8.35","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.97","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.96629333,"y":271.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.47","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.46629333,"y":271.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"8.41","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.81","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.80630493,"y":271.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.31","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.30630493,"y":271.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 18% (430 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","259.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":259.41378784} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 64% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"(740 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 840 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","235.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21029663,"y":235.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 580 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 730 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"169.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 600  PJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","187.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":187.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":175.41377258} {"page":307,"change":"none","str":"duced, with a maximum amount of 130 PJ/year in 2050. 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{"page":308,"change":"none","str":"Synfuels","dir":"ltr","width":"24.64","height":"5.90","transform":["5.90","0.00","0.00","5.90","348.29","288.88"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":348.28700247000006,"y":288.8765441700002} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"Biofuels","dir":"ltr","width":"23.37","height":"5.90","transform":["5.90","0.00","0.00","5.90","348.29","271.43"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":348.28700247000006,"y":271.42555541000024} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"Natural Ga","dir":"ltr","width":"29.84","height":"5.90","transform":["5.90","0.00","0.00","5.90","348.29","253.99"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":348.28700247000006,"y":253.98854368000025} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.28","height":"5.90","transform":["5.90","0.00","0.00","5.90","378.18","253.99"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":378.1750639900001,"y":253.98854368000025} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"Oil products","dir":"ltr","width":"34.83","height":"5.90","transform":["5.90","0.00","0.00","5.90","348.29","236.55"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":348.28700247000006,"y":236.55154722000023} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.41","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.63","186.65"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.6300086000001,"y":186.65204161000023} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"238.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.17","186.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.17150869000011,"y":186.65204161000023} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858405970000106,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":308,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6084059700001,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"260","dir":"ltr","width":"13.02","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"8.7.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.50"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":333.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"198.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","333.50"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":333.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","309.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":309.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"8.43","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.94","297.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.93829345,"y":297.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.44","297.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.43829345,"y":297.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 44%, from around 71,200 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"PJ/year in 2015 to 40,100 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"overall primary energy demand will decrease by 43% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"(5.0 °C: 70,700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"be even lower (39,000 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"will cause renewable energy to have primary energy shares of 39% in 2030 and 92% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a pri","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","189.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19430541,"y":189.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"mary energy share of more than 92% in 2050 (including non-energy consumption, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out by 2040 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"under both the 2.0  °C and the 1.5  °C Scenarios. The cumulative primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"consumption of natural gas in the 5.0 °C case will add up to 670 EJ, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"coal consumption to about 300 EJm, and the crude oil consumption to 660 EJ. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"contrast, in the 2.0 °C case, the cumulative gas demand will amount to 420 EJ, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"cumulative coal demand to 100 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 320 EJ. Even ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 340 EJ for natural gas, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"70 EJ for coal, and 240 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"134.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.5031128} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.61","height":"6.50","transform":["6.50","0.00","0.00","6.50","363.03","467.99"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+PpnhysJdqvkjGmpgvhArial-BoldMT","x":363.02529907,"y":467.9874878} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"20","dir":"ltr","width":"7.23","height":"6.50","transform":["6.50","0.00","0.00","6.50","363.03","486.62"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+PpnhysJdqvkjGmpgvhArial-BoldMT","x":363.02529907,"y":486.61639404} {"page":309,"change":"none","str":"40","dir":"ltr","width":"7.23","height":"6.50","transform":["6.50","0.00","0.00","6.50","363.03","505.26"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+PpnhysJdqvkjGmpgvhArial-BoldMT","x":363.02529907,"y":505.26480102} 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The European Network ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","302.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":302.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) publishes detailed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","290.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":290.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"data about the annual cross-border trade (ENTSO-E ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","278.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":278.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.12","278.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.11828613,"y":278.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":") and produces the ","dir":"ltr","width":"78.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","289.12","278.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":289.11828613,"y":278.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"Ten-","dir":"ltr","width":"17.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","368.09","278.89"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":368.08828735,"y":278.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"Year-","dir":"ltr","width":"21.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","266.89"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":266.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"Network Development Plan (TYNDP)","dir":"ltr","width":"149.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","74.96","266.89"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":74.95829772,"y":266.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":", which aims to integrate 60% renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","224.76","266.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.75830078,"y":266.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"electricity by 2040 (TYNDP ","dir":"ltr","width":"118.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","254.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":254.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","172.43","254.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":172.42829895,"y":254.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"). While the extent to which the power sector is ","dir":"ltr","width":"196.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.43","254.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.42829895,"y":254.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"liberalised and open for competition for generation and supply varies significantly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","242.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":242.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"across the EU, at the time of the writing of this book all 28-member states had ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","230.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":230.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"renewable electricity and energy efficiency targets and policies to implement them. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","218.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":218.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"However, the OECD Europe region covers not only the EU but also neighbouring ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","206.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":206.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"countries such as Norway, Switzerland and Turkey, which are not members of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","194.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":194.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"EU, but are connected to the EU grid and are also involved in the cross-border elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","182.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":182.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","182.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":182.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"tricity trade. The region also includes Iceland, Malta, and a significant number of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","170.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":170.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"islands in the coastal waters of the European continent and the Mediterranean Sea. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","158.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":158.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"The storage demand for all the islands and island nations cannot be calculated with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","146.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":146.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"a regional approach, and doing so was beyond the scope of this research. Israel is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","134.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":134.89059448} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"also part of OECD Europe in the IEA world regions used for this analysis. However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","122.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":122.89058685} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"because of its geographic position, and to reflect current and possible future inter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","110.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":110.89058685} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","110.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":110.89058685} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"connections with its neighbours, Israel has been taken out of the energy balance of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","98.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":98.89058685} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe and integrated into the Middle East region.","dir":"ltr","width":"232.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","86.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":86.89058685} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":310,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"262","dir":"ltr","width":"12.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"8.7.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"237.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"The annual market for solar PV must increase from 11 GW in 2020 by a factor of 2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"to an average of 40 GW by 2030. The onshore wind market must expand to 18 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"by 2025 under the 2.0  °C Scenario. This is only a minor increase on the average ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"European wind market of 10–14 GW between 2009 and 2016 and 16.8 GW in 2017. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"However, the 1.5  °C Scenario requires that the size of the onshore wind market ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"double between 2020 and 2025. The offshore wind market for both scenarios is ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"similar and must increase from 3 GW (GWEC ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.00","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":241.99830627,"y":501.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":") in 2017 to around 10 GW per ","dir":"ltr","width":"125.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.00","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":261.99829101,"y":501.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"year throughout the entire modelling period until 2050. All European lignite power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"plants will have stopped operations by 2035, and the last hard coal power plant will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"have gone offline by 2040 under the 2.0 °C Scenario. The 1.5 °C pathway requires ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"the phase-out 5 years earlier (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"143.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"8.36","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","196.90","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":196.89630126,"y":453.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","214.40","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.39630126,"y":453.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"8.7.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"252.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","417.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"The UK, Ireland, and the Iberian Peninsula are the least interconnected sub-regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"of OECD Europe, and they already have relatively high shares of variable renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":381.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"ables, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"99.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"8.37","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","153.17","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":153.16729736,"y":369.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.67","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.66729736,"y":369.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"8.37","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.83","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.82830047,"y":357.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":" shows that the Nordic countries, especially Norway and Sweden, have ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.33","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.32830047,"y":357.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"very high shares of hydropower, including pumped hydropower. Therefore, an ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"increased interconnection capacity with other sub-regions by 2030 will contribute ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":311,"change":"none","str":"to the integration of larger shares of wind and solar in other European regions. 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{"page":313,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe Central","dir":"ltr","width":"76.96","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","160.61","72.04"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.61421010000012,"y":72.03773106} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","160.61","203.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.61421010000012,"y":203.56673802} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"15%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","160.61","226.24"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.61421010000012,"y":226.23623264999998} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"47%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","160.61","269.02"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.61421010000012,"y":269.01673497} 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{"page":313,"change":"none","str":"69%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","184.28","418.95"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.2782115700001,"y":418.94822300000004} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"27%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","184.28","459.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.2782115700001,"y":459.80772008} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"4%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.33","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","184.28","504.48"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.2782115700001,"y":504.48371495000004} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.37","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","65.29","69.22"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":65.28671071000012,"y":69.22420872000001} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"(continued)","dir":"ltr","width":"39.19","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","65.29","112.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.28671071000012,"y":112.17470921} {"page":313,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.0001048800001,"y":623.65333165} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"265","dir":"ltr","width":"12.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.71","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.71340942,"y":623.65332031} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"Across the EU, it is assumed that the average interconnection capacities will increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"to 20% of the regional peak load.","dir":"ltr","width":"132.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"Both alternative scenarios assume that limited dispatchable power generation—","dir":"ltr","width":"319.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","318.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":318.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"namely coal, lignite, and nuclear—will not have priority dispatch and will be last in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"the dispatch queue. Therefore, the average calculated capacity factor will decrease ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"from 57.5% in 2015 to only 14% in 2020, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"243.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"8.38","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","297.34","282.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":297.3373108,"y":282.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","314.84","282.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":314.8373108,"y":282.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","270.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":270.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"8.38","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.92","270.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.91829681,"y":270.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":" shows that by 2020, most of the installed coal and nuclear capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.42","270.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.41829681,"y":270.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"will not be required to secure power supply. Instead, dispatchable renewable power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"plants will fill the gap and their capacity factors will increase.","dir":"ltr","width":"246.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"8.7.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","210.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":210.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"OECD Europe: Development of Load, Generation, ","dir":"ltr","width":"218.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","210.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":210.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"and Residual Load","dir":"ltr","width":"80.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","198.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":198.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"The loads of the European sub-regions will not increase until 2030 in the two alter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","174.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":174.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"native scenarios, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"143.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"8.39","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.87","162.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.8683014,"y":162.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":". 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This is attributed to Turkey’s assumed economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"development and increasing per capita electricity demand, which is currently lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"than in most EU countries (WB-DB ","dir":"ltr","width":"147.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","126.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":126.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","201.34","126.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.33830261,"y":126.42330932} {"page":314,"change":"none","str":"). 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{"page":318,"change":"none","str":"Residential & other sectors electricity","dir":"ltr","width":"123.85","height":"6.92","transform":["6.92","0.00","0.00","6.92","235.75","101.69"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RnvhbgXmtmdlYqjlywArial-BoldMT","x":235.7491902800001,"y":101.68647544000012} {"page":318,"change":"none","str":"total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2","dir":"ltr","width":"131.42","height":"6.92","transform":["6.92","0.00","0.00","6.92","76.37","89.65"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RnvhbgXmtmdlYqjlywArial-BoldMT","x":76.3701009200001,"y":89.64747398000013} {"page":318,"change":"none","str":")","dir":"ltr","width":"2.30","height":"6.92","transform":["6.92","0.00","0.00","6.92","207.77","89.65"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RnvhbgXmtmdlYqjlywArial-BoldMT","x":207.76719565000008,"y":89.64747398000013} {"page":318,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.44","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85749518000009,"y":69.15197836000006} {"page":318,"change":"none","str":"Africa: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"238.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","89.93","69.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.9315003200001,"y":69.15197836000006} {"page":318,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858296270000096,"y":623.65329825} {"page":318,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6082962700001,"y":623.65329825} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"270","dir":"ltr","width":"12.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"32,300 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand under the 1.5  °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"reach 30,100 PJ, 30% above the 2015 demand level. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the final ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"energy demand in 2050 will be 7% lower than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. The electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-to-heat or e-mobility) will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"increase from 540 TWh/year in 2015 to around 2590 TWh/year in 2050 in both alter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":549.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"native scenarios, which will be 590 TWh/year higher than in the 5.0 °C case. Although ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures will reduce the specific energy consumption by appliances, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"scenarios consider higher consumption to achieve higher living standards.","dir":"ltr","width":"291.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will increase to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"approximately 1200 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"transport sector, the demand will increase to approximately 1300 TWh/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"response to increased electric mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"and high-temperature process heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"for transport) will add an additional power demand of 1100 TWh/year The gross ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"power demand will thus increase from 800 TWh/year in 2015 to 5700 TWh/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, 119% higher than in the 5.0  °C case. In the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the gross electricity demand will increase to a maximum of 6300 TWh/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the elec","dir":"ltr","width":"316.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12631225,"y":369.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"tricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":357.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"lent to about 3600 PJ/year is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050 compared ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"with the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"100.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"128.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","297.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":261.15979003} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in Africa will come from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy sources in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—mainly wind, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 92% of the total electricity genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":225.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"tion. Renewable electricity’s share of total production will be 61% by 2030 and 96% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 360 GW by 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"2040 GW by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the share of renewable electricity genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22930908,"y":189.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"tion in 2030 is assumed to be 73%. The 1.5  °C Scenario will have a generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"capacity from renewable energy of approximately 2280 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"276.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"8.41","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.37","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.3683014,"y":153.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in Africa ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.87","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.8683014,"y":153.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"71.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"8.45","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.64","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.63829803,"y":141.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-generation struc","dir":"ltr","width":"239.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.14","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.13830566,"y":141.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":141.15977478} {"page":319,"change":"none","str":"ture in Africa. 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{"page":320,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.45","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85805936999867,"y":69.15208368000056} {"page":320,"change":"none","str":"Africa: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"240.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","89.93","69.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.93205686999868,"y":69.15208368000056} {"page":320,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85805936999867,"y":623.6534035700006} {"page":320,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario 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{"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"8.46","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.23","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.228302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the 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","dir":"ltr","width":"290.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.18","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.17978668,"y":549.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach 11 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":537.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"kWh, and will then stabilize at 10.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":525.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach 8.4 ct/kWh ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":513.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"and 8.2 ct/kWh, respectively. They will then drop to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050  in both ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":501.15979003} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"scenarios, 5.2 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. 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{"page":321,"change":"none","str":"50","dir":"ltr","width":"8.82","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","72.08","187.99"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":72.0823288,"y":187.98988342} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"100","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","203.82"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":203.82240295} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"150","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","219.65"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":219.65492248} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"200","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","235.49"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":235.48744201} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"250","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","251.32"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":251.31996154} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"300","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","267.17"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":267.16836547} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"350","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","283.00"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":283.000885} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"400","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","298.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69365692,"y":298.83340454} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"450","dir":"ltr","width":"13.24","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","67.69","314.66"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":67.69409942,"y":314.66140747} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.65","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","103.79","164.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":103.79070281,"y":164.19850158} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.65","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","160.84","164.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":160.83538818,"y":164.19850158} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.65","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","217.88","164.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":217.88008117,"y":164.19850158} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.65","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","274.92","164.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":274.9168396,"y":164.19850158} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.65","height":"7.94","transform":["7.94","0.00","0.00","7.94","331.96","164.20"],"fontName":"RZTODG+FfpwjpMbgmftKgvpclArialMT","x":331.96151733,"y":164.19850158} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"ct/kWh","dir":"ltr","width":"28.84","height":"9.57","transform":["0.00","9.57","-9.57","0.00","382.94","231.07"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":382.93811035,"y":231.0744934} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.01","height":"9.57","transform":["0.00","9.57","-9.57","0.00","61.68","230.10"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":61.68059921,"y":230.09861755} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"4.76","height":"9.57","transform":["0.00","9.57","-9.57","0.00","61.68","256.07"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":61.68059921,"y":256.07437133} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"18.37","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","80.94","139.73"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":80.93530273,"y":139.73449707} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures 2.0°","dir":"ltr","width":"84.86","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","247.60","139.73"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":247.60009765,"y":139.73449707} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.58","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","332.41","139.73"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":332.4093628,"y":139.73449707} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"18.37","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","80.94","126.27"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":80.93530273,"y":126.27149963} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"efficiency measures 1.5°","dir":"ltr","width":"84.86","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","247.60","126.27"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":247.60009765,"y":126.27149963} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.58","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","332.41","126.27"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":332.4093628,"y":126.27149963} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"18.37","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","247.60","112.83"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":247.60009765,"y":112.82550048} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"137.18","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","80.94","112.82"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":80.93530273,"y":112.8184967} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°","dir":"ltr","width":"132.60","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","247.60","99.36"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":247.60009765,"y":99.3635025} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.58","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","380.15","99.36"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":380.14624023,"y":99.3635025} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"137.18","height":"8.59","transform":["8.59","0.00","0.00","8.59","80.94","99.35"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":80.93529892999999,"y":99.35449981} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.46","dir":"ltr","width":"31.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","79.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.858295449999986,"y":79.15200042} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"Africa: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.14","79.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.13629532999998,"y":79.15200042} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"costs in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"72.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858295449999986,"y":69.15599822} {"page":321,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00008775,"y":623.65332031} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"273","dir":"ltr","width":"12.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.92","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.9182129,"y":623.65332031} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","595.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":595.65979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":597.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 8.1 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":585.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, they will increase until 2030, when they reach 6.8 ct/kWh, and then drop ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":573.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 7.2 ct/kWh and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":561.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"then drop to 5.6 ct/kWh by 2050. Therefore, the generation costs in both alternative ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":549.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"scenarios are, at maximum, 2.5 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C case. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":537.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","535.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":535.65979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0  °C case will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":525.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"increase to about $220 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"174.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":513.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"201.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","477.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $3500 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":453.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":441.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":429.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19180297,"y":429.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"ment at the ends of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":417.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"$97 billion per year, on average, and is $2590 billion more than in the 5.0 ° C case ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":405.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"($910 billion). An investment of around $3910 billion for power generation will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":393.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"required between 2015 and 2050  in the 1.5  °C Scenario. On average, this is an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":381.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"investment of $109 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":369.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1907959,"y":369.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"ventional power plants will be around 45% of the total cumulative investments, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":357.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"approximately 55% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":345.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17080688,"y":345.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"tion (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":333.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"8.47","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.59","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.59179687,"y":333.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","111.09","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":111.09179687,"y":333.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, Africa will shift almost 93% (94%) of ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":321.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":309.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"share of power sector investments will focus predominantly on gas power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":297.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"161.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":285.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86180114,"y":273.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $1510 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":261.15979003} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $42 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":249.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 60% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":237.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $1610 billion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":225.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"or $45 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":213.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86180114,"y":177.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"147.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36180114,"y":177.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 166%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":153.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"from 7600 PJ/year in 2015 to 20,200 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":141.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 18% in 2050 in both alterna","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":129.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16378784,"y":129.15977478} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"tive scenarios, relative to the 5.0 °C case. Today, renewables supply around 61% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":117.1597824} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Africa’s final energy demand for heating, with the main contribution from biomass. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":105.1597824} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy will provide 71% of Africa’s total heat demand in 2030 under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":93.1597824} {"page":322,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and 79% under the 1.5 °C Scenario. 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Biomass will remain the main contributor. 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Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"274.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":323,"change":"none","str":" 0","dir":"ltr","width":"5.35","height":"6.41","transform":["6.41","0.00","0.00","6.41","82.14","107.26"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+GncyqpPkttcwWhbmdxArial-BoldMT","x":82.13659667,"y":107.2609024} {"page":323,"change":"none","str":"5,000","dir":"ltr","width":"16.11","height":"6.41","transform":["6.41","0.00","0.00","6.41","71.41","130.33"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+GncyqpPkttcwWhbmdxArial-BoldMT","x":71.41155242,"y":130.32743835} {"page":323,"change":"none","str":"10,00","dir":"ltr","width":"16.11","height":"6.41","transform":["6.41","0.00","0.00","6.41","67.83","153.41"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+GncyqpPkttcwWhbmdxArial-BoldMT","x":67.83226013,"y":153.40681457} 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The direct use of electricity for heat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13931274,"y":343.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"ing will also increase by a factor of 21–34 between 2015 and 2050, and will attain a ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"final energy share of 23% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and 37% in the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Future Investments in the Heating Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"208.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","271.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"will amount to around $790 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"plant replacement after their economic lifetimes), or approximately $22 billion per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"year. The largest share of investment in Africa is assumed to be for heat pumps ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"(around $370 billion), followed by solar collectors and biomass technologies. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.41378784} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technologies. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"However, the lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0 °C Scenario) will result in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"a lower average annual investment of around $21 billion per year (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"309.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"8.43","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.51","163.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.50830078,"y":163.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.01","163.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.00830078,"y":163.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"8.49","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.20","151.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":72.19830322,"y":151.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.70","151.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.69830322,"y":151.41377258} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.42","dir":"ltr","width":"37.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"Africa: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding the direct ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.56","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.56230163,"y":598.1743164} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"use of 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{"page":324,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","247.52","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":247.51792690999883,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","280.25","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.2514168999988,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","312.98","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":312.9849374099988,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":324,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","352.09","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.0934273999988,"y":573.9188720500002} 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{"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3656","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.50","417.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.49967172999942,"y":417.41685789000024} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3324","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","214.60","417.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.59766366999946,"y":417.41685789000024} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3239","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","258.70","417.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.69565560999945,"y":417.41685789000024} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3253","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","302.79","417.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.79367806999943,"y":417.41685789000024} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3169","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.89","417.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.8916700199994,"y":417.41685789000024} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"1 5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","128.65","405.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.65418221999943,"y":405.58485715000023} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3656","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.48","405.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.48267343999942,"y":405.58485715000023} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3610","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","214.58","405.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.58068063999946,"y":405.58485715000023} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"3244","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","258.68","405.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.67868783999944,"y":405.58485715000023} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"2912","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","302.78","405.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.77667978999943,"y":405.58485715000023} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"2225","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.87","405.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.8746717299994,"y":405.58485715000023} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"a","dir":"ltr","width":"2.26","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","395.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":395.0743591100002} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"Excluding direct electric heating","dir":"ltr","width":"110.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.76","392.24"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.76004769999944,"y":392.24385374000025} {"page":325,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.0000379399994,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"277","dir":"ltr","width":"12.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.81","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.81369018,"y":623.65332031} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"75.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"The energy demand in the transport sector in Africa is expected to increase by 131% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"in the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 4400 PJ/year in 2015 to 10,100 PJ/year in 2050. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"save 53% (5410 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. Additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport demand will lead ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 63% (or 6360 PJ/year) in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"175.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"8.44","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.97","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.96629333,"y":501.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.47","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.46629333,"y":501.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"8.50","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.81","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.80630493,"y":501.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.31","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.30630493,"y":501.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 4% (50 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s total ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas by 2050, the share will be 28% (370 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year). In 2050, up to 410 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 360 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 340 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"169.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 2300 PJ/year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"286.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"introduced, ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","340.24","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.23831176,"y":405.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"with a maximum amount of 700 PJ/year in 2050. With the lower overall energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"demand by transport, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":381.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"mum of 1700 PJ/year The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 470 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"year.","dir":"ltr","width":"19.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"117.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","321.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","208.58","319.66"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":208.57679748,"y":319.65979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","211.58","321.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":211.57679748,"y":321.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Africa’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"170.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85678863,"y":297.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","224.61","295.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.61309814,"y":295.65979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":" emissions will increase by 126%, from ","dir":"ltr","width":"160.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","227.61","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.61309814,"y":297.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"1140 Mt. in 2015 to 2585 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86309814,"y":285.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall to 400 Mt. in 2040 in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86309814,"y":273.15979003} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.44","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","247.48"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":247.48370361} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Africa: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.99","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.13","247.48"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.12879943,"y":247.48370361} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"in PJ/year","dir":"ltr","width":"33.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","233.23"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69303113999998,"y":233.22817346999983} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Case","dir":"ltr","width":"16.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","149.39","233.23"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.39402753999997,"y":233.22817346999983} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","186.73","233.23"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.73452741,"y":233.22817346999983} 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{"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Total","dir":"ltr","width":"17.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.85","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.84590893999998,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","149.55","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.54690533999997,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4366","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","186.89","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.88742047,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"5246","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.51","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.50590496999996,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"6105","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","266.12","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":266.12441997999997,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"7885","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","305.74","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":305.74291974,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"10,027","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","345.36","78.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.36141949999995,"y":78.59617729999984} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","149.56","66.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.55540448,"y":66.76417656999985} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4366","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","186.90","66.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.89590435999997,"y":66.76417656999985} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4895","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.51","66.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.51440411,"y":66.76417656999985} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"5045","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","266.13","66.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":266.13290386999995,"y":66.76417656999985} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4877","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","305.75","66.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":305.75140364,"y":66.76417656999985} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4714","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","345.37","66.76"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.36990338,"y":66.76417656999985} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","149.56","54.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.56390363999998,"y":54.932179649999846} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4366","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","186.90","54.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.9044035,"y":54.932179649999846} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4707","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.52","54.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.52290325999996,"y":54.932179649999846} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4648","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","266.14","54.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":266.14141827,"y":54.932179649999846} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"4164","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","305.76","54.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":305.75991803999995,"y":54.932179649999846} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"3765","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","345.38","54.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.37841778999996,"y":54.932179649999846} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85832958999998,"y":623.6532985799998} {"page":326,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60832958999998,"y":623.6532985799998} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"278","dir":"ltr","width":"12.39","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and to 200 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further reductions to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","379.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":379.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"241.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","295.09","365.85"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.09240722,"y":365.85180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":" emissions from 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","298.09","367.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":298.09240722,"y":367.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"until 2050 will add up to 66 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86240005,"y":355.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 27 Gt and 22 Gt, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86240005,"y":343.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"respectively.","dir":"ltr","width":"49.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86240005,"y":331.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"122.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","319.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86239624,"y":319.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","188.84","317.85"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":188.84100341,"y":317.85180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":" emissions will decrease by 59% in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","191.84","319.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":191.84100341,"y":319.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Scenario and by 67% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":307.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":295.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":283.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"‘Industry’ and ‘Residential and other’ sectors (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":271.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"8.51","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","259.38","271.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.38101196,"y":271.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.88","271.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.88101196,"y":271.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"8.8.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.35"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86100006,"y":235.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"162.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","235.35"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36100006,"y":235.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":211.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","211.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23098754,"y":211.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":199.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"8.52","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.94","199.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.94100952,"y":199.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.44","199.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.44100952,"y":199.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the primary energy demand will increase by 50% from around 33,200 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":187.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"year in 2015 to around 50,000 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":175.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"the overall primary energy demand will decrease by 26% by 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":163.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Scenario (5.0  °C: 67700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":151.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"demand will be even lower (48,000 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":139.35180664} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"and conversion losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"143.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":127.35179901} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","115.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86100006,"y":115.35179901} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 56% in 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.35"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":103.35179901} {"page":327,"change":"none","str":"98% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. 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The cumulative primary ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"energy consumption of natural gas in the 5.0  °C case will add up to 290 EJ, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"cumulative coal consumption to about 210 EJ, and the crude oil consumption to 390 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"EJ. In contrast, in the 2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"130 EJ, the cumulative coal demand to 70 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 180 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 110 EJ for natu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1532898,"y":537.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"ral gas, 50 EJ for coal, and 150 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"166.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"8.8.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","481.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":481.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"147.48","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","481.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":481.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"The African continent has 54 countries and its geographic, economic, and climatic ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"diversity are significant. Its regional breakdown into sub-regions tries to reflect this ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"diversity, but still requires a level of simplification. There is no pan-African power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"grid yet, although it is currently under discussion. The African Clean Energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Corridor (ACEC) is the most prominent regional initiative and aims to connect the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) with the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP). It ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"was politically endorsed in January 2014 at the Assembly of the International ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"146.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","200.57","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.56629943,"y":369.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","220.57","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.56629943,"y":369.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"8.8.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"201.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","333.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"In 2050, Africa’s most important renewable power-generation technology in both ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"scenarios will be solar PV. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, solar PV will provide just over ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"40% of the total generation capacity, followed by onshore wind (with 24%), hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":285.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"gen power (15%), and CSP plants (located in the desert regions), with 10% of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"total capacity. All other renewable power plant technologies will have only 2%–3% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"shares. The 2.0 °C Scenario will arrive at similar capacities by 2050, although the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"transition times in the two scenarios differ. Africa must build up solar PV and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind markets equal to the market sizes in China in 2017: 50 GW of solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"PV installation (REN21-GSR2018) and 23 GW of onshore wind (GWEC ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.69","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.68829345,"y":213.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.69","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.68829345,"y":213.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"The market for CSP plants must reach about 1 GW per year by 2025, increasing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"rapidly to 3 GW per year in 2029 and 15 GW per year in 2035 (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"279.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"8.45","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.55","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.54629516,"y":189.15977478} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","351.05","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":351.04629516,"y":189.15977478} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"8.8.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"216.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","153.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"Africa’s sub-regions are assumed to have an interconnection capacity of 5% at the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"beginning of the calculation period (2015). This capacity is not required for any ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"exchange of variable electricity production, because currently, shares are only at or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"below 2% of the total generation capacity (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"8.46","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.60","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.59829711,"y":93.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"). However, the variable gen","dir":"ltr","width":"113.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.10","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.09829711,"y":93.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16931152,"y":93.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"eration capacity will increase rapidly towards 2030. We assume that the intercon","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1612854,"y":81.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"nection capacity between sub-regions will increase and that initiatives such as the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"African Clean Energy Corridor (ACEC) will be implemented successfully.","dir":"ltr","width":"297.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":57.1597786} {"page":329,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"281","dir":"ltr","width":"12.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.08","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.07800292,"y":623.65332031} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"The development of average capacity factors for each generation type will follow ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","354.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":354.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"the same trend as in most world regions. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"184.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"8.47","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.45","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.44830322,"y":342.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":" shows the significant drop in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.95","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.94830322,"y":342.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"capacity factors of limited dispatchable power plants under the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"318.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"8.8.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":294.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"Africa: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load","dir":"ltr","width":"263.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","294.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":294.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"8.48","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.80","270.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.7983017,"y":270.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":" shows that under the 2.0 °C Scenario, the transmission capacities need ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.30","270.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.2983017,"y":270.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"not exceed the assumed 25% interconnection capacity. If the exchange capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"between Africa’s sub-regions is 20%—as calculated under the 1.5  °C Scenario—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"additional capacity will be required. Therefore, a 25% interconnection capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"seems a good target for high renewable penetration scenarios in Africa. The load in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"all sub-regions—from North Africa to South Africa—will increase significantly. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","210.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":210.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"The greatest increase is calculated for Southern Africa, with the load increasing by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"a factor of 7, followed by Central Africa (a factor of 6.5), East Africa (6), West ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","186.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":186.07330322} {"page":330,"change":"none","str":"Africa (5.5), and North Africa (4). 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In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will rise to approximately 800 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"demand will rise to approximately 1700 TWh/year due to the increase in electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport and high-temperature process ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly for transport) will add an addi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":477.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"tional power demand of 1900 TWh/year. The gross power demand will thus rise ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"from 1100 TWh/year in 2015 to 4700 TWh/year in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"57% higher than in the 5.0  °C case. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the gross electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"demand will increase to a maximum of 4100 TWh/year by 2045.","dir":"ltr","width":"258.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency gains could be even larger in the heating sector than in the elec","dir":"ltr","width":"316.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12728881,"y":417.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"tricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":405.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"lent to about 10,100 PJ/year and 10,500 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"through efficiency gains by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"276.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"8.9.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"172.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","345.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":309.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in the Middle East will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"come from renewable energy sources under the 2.0  °C Scenario. ‘New’ renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":285.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"ables—mainly wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 96% of the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"electricity generation. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"49% by 2030 and 91% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"about 430 GW by 2030 and 1910 GW by 2050. The share of renewable electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"generation in 2030  in the 1.5  °C Scenario is assumed to be 58%. In the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the generation capacity from renewable energy will be approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"1700 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"74.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"8.50","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.65","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.64830017,"y":189.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.15","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.14830017,"y":189.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"Middle East over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"128.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"8.54","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.79","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.78829956,"y":177.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-","dir":"ltr","width":"184.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","201.29","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.28829956,"y":177.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"generation structure in the Middle East. From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"of wind and PV, up to 480 GW and 1070 GW, respectively, will be complemented ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"by up to 250 GW of solar thermal generation, as well as limited biomass, geother","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":141.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"mal, and ocean energy, in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"Scenario will lead to high proportions of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"ocean) of 39% and 46%, respectively, by 2030, and 64% and 66%, respectively, by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":337,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"289","dir":"ltr","width":"12.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.77","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.77459716,"y":623.65332031} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.50","dir":"ltr","width":"40.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"Middle East: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","99.61","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.6053009,"y":598.1743164} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"31.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","588.18"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":588.17834472} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"in GW","dir":"ltr","width":"22.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69266172999867,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"Case","dir":"ltr","width":"16.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","124.60","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.59916349999867,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","167.11","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.10765501999867,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","211.89","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":211.89415403999868,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","256.68","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.68066831999863,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","301.47","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":301.46716733999864,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":338,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.25","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.25366636999865,"y":573.9189065000005} 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{"page":339,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"121.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","175.70","559.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.69979858,"y":559.65979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated ","dir":"ltr","width":"211.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","178.70","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.69979858,"y":561.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"43.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":549.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 7.1 ct/kWh. 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The generation costs in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":525.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"2.0  °C Scenario will increase until 2030, when they reach 11.1 ct/kWh, and then ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":513.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"drop to 6.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 10.7 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":501.15979003} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"kWh, and then drop to 7.3 ct/kWh by 2050. 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{"page":339,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.20","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","332.28","125.40"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":332.27926635,"y":125.40049743} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.83","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","254.79","112.28"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":254.78829956,"y":112.28250122} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°","dir":"ltr","width":"121.14","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","94.76","112.28"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":94.7602005,"y":112.27749633} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.20","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","215.87","112.28"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":215.872818,"y":112.27749633} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°","dir":"ltr","width":"121.14","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","254.79","99.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":254.78829956,"y":99.16349792} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.20","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","375.83","99.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":375.83007812,"y":99.16349792} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°","dir":"ltr","width":"121.14","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","94.76","99.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":94.76020050999998,"y":99.15950013999999} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"C","dir":"ltr","width":"4.20","height":"7.87","transform":["7.87","0.00","0.00","7.87","215.80","99.16"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":215.80198670999997,"y":99.15950013999999} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.55","dir":"ltr","width":"32.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","79.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925999998,"y":79.15200043999998} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"Middle East: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"293.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.02","79.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.02330017999998,"y":79.15200043999998} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"110.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925999998,"y":69.15599823999999} {"page":339,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009156,"y":623.65332033} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"291","dir":"ltr","width":"11.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.18","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.17749023,"y":623.65332031} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"The generation costs without the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"147.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","213.82","595.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.81629943,"y":595.65979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":" emission costs will increase in the 5.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"171.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","216.82","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":216.81629943,"y":597.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"case to 11.1 ct/kWh by 2030, and then stabilize at 10.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":585.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to a maximum of 9 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":573.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"kWh in 2030, before they drop to 6.1 ct/kWh and 7.3 ct/kWh by 2050, respectively. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":561.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the generation costs will be 4.7 ct/kWh lower than in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":549.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case and this maximum difference will occur in 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":537.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"the maximum difference in generation costs compared with the 5.0 °C case will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":525.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"3.5 ct/kWh in 2050. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"120.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85630035,"y":513.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","174.36","511.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":174.36030578,"y":511.65979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":" costs are not considered, the total electricity supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"210.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","177.36","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":177.36030578,"y":513.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $320 billion/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"271.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":501.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"8.9.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86029815,"y":465.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"245.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","465.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36029815,"y":465.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $3450 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":441.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":429.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":417.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19030761,"y":417.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"ment at the ends of their economic lives. This value will be equivalent to approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":405.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18530273,"y":405.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"mately $96 billion per year on average, and this is $2720 billion more than in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":393.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case ($730 billion). An investment of around $3470 billion for power genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":381.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":381.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"tion will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario, or on average, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":369.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"$96 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in conventional power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":357.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"plants will be around 68% of the total cumulative investments, whereas approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":345.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21029663,"y":345.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"mately 32% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":333.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"(Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":321.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"8.56","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","75.17","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":75.17030334,"y":321.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"). However, in both alternative scenarios, the Middle East will shift almost ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","92.67","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.67030334,"y":321.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"94% of its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":309.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"fuel share of power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":297.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"161.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":285.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86029815,"y":273.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $2900 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":261.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $81 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":249.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 110% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":237.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $3100 billion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":225.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"or $86 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":213.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"8.9.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86029815,"y":177.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"191.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36029815,"y":177.15979003} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase by 139% in the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":153.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"from 7100 PJ/year in 2015 to 17,100 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":141.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 59% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":129.15977478} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, relative to the 5.0  °C case, and by 62% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Today, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":117.1597824} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"renewables supply almost none of the Middle East’s final energy demand for heat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":105.1597824} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.149292,"y":105.1597824} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"ing. Renewable energy will provide 23% of the Middle East’s total heat demand in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86029815,"y":93.1597824} {"page":340,"change":"none","str":"2030  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and 25% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. 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{"page":344,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: transport","dir":"ltr","width":"117.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector in the Middle East is expected to increase in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0 °C Scenario by 133%, from around 5700 PJ/year in 2015 to 13,300 PJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"changes will save 67% (8860 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 79% (or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"10,400 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"250.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"8.53","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","304.52","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.51629638,"y":501.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","322.02","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.01629638,"y":501.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"8.59","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","345.36","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":345.35629272,"y":501.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.85629272,"y":501.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 4% (70 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s total ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 39% (480 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"TWh/year). In 2050, up to 620 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 350 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 450 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"169.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 370 PJ/year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":405.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"duced, with a maximum consumption of 1670 PJ/year in 2050. Biofuel use in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario with have a maximum of 430 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"demand will amount to 920 PJ/year.","dir":"ltr","width":"143.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.53","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","315.08"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":315.08248901} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Middle East: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"262.60","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","315.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":315.08248901} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"in PJ/year","dir":"ltr","width":"33.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.692874650000455,"y":300.8269874499998} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"Case","dir":"ltr","width":"16.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","148.48","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.47587941000046,"y":300.8269874499998} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","184.91","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.90687916000047,"y":300.8269874499998} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","223.61","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":223.60737965000044,"y":300.8269874499998} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","262.31","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.30786488000047,"y":300.8269874499998} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","301.01","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":301.00836537000043,"y":300.8269874499998} {"page":344,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.08","300.83"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.08386586000046,"y":300.8269874499998} 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{"page":345,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","252.49","379.58"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":252.48649597,"y":379.57540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.49","381.08"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":255.48649597,"y":381.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the Middle East’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"217.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85649108,"y":357.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","271.17","355.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":271.16558837,"y":355.57540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":" emissions will increase by ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","274.17","357.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":274.16558837,"y":357.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"76% from 1760 Mt. in 2015 to 3094 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559082,"y":345.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 510 Mt. in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559082,"y":333.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"2040  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 220 Mt. in the 1.5  °C Scenario, with further ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559082,"y":321.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"reductions to almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"287.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559082,"y":309.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","340.93","307.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.93319702,"y":307.57540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":" emissions ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","343.93","309.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":343.93319702,"y":309.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"from 2015 until 2050 will add up to 90 Gt. In contrast, in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86320114,"y":297.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios, the cumulative emissions for the period from 2015 until 2050 will be 38 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86320114,"y":285.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"Gt and 31 Gt, respectively.","dir":"ltr","width":"106.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86320114,"y":273.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"122.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86319732,"y":261.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","188.84","259.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":188.84100341,"y":259.57540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":" emissions will decrease by 58% in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","191.84","261.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":191.84100341,"y":261.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"Scenario and by 66% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":249.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":237.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Industry’ followed by the ‘Power gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":225.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","225.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22601318,"y":225.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"eration’ and ‘Transport’ sectors (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"150.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":213.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"8.60","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","204.03","213.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":204.02999877,"y":213.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","221.53","213.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.52999877,"y":213.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"8.9.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.08"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86100006,"y":177.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"206.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","177.08"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.36100006,"y":177.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":153.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","153.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23098754,"y":153.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":141.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"8.61","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.94","141.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.94100952,"y":141.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.44","141.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.44100952,"y":141.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 16%, from around 30,300 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":129.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"PJ/year in 2015 to 25,400 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":117.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"overall primary energy demand will decrease by 59% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":105.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"(5.0 °C: 61,700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":93.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"be even lower (22,300 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":81.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86100006,"y":69.07540893} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":" 0","dir":"ltr","width":"5.41","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","78.89","453.07"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":78.88659667,"y":453.07339477} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"2,00","dir":"ltr","width":"12.61","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","68.04","473.83"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":68.03639984,"y":473.83395385} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","80.69","473.83"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":80.69496154,"y":473.83395385} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"4,00","dir":"ltr","width":"12.61","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","68.04","494.61"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":68.03639984,"y":494.61398315} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","80.69","494.61"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":80.69496154,"y":494.61398315} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"6,00","dir":"ltr","width":"12.61","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","68.04","515.37"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":68.03639984,"y":515.37451171} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","80.69","515.37"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":80.69496154,"y":515.37451171} {"page":345,"change":"none","str":"8,00","dir":"ltr","width":"12.61","height":"6.48","transform":["6.48","0.00","0.00","6.48","68.04","536.14"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+MyjhmxYskpqnYvsgbfArial-BoldMT","x":68.03639984,"y":536.1350708} 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{"page":346,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"14.56","height":"6.55","transform":["6.55","0.00","0.00","6.55","164.37","124.86"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":164.37194824,"y":124.85820007} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"203","dir":"ltr","width":"10.92","height":"6.55","transform":["6.55","0.00","0.00","6.55","212.02","124.86"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":212.01519775,"y":124.85820007} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"02","dir":"ltr","width":"73.33","height":"6.55","transform":["6.55","0.00","0.00","6.55","222.98","124.86"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":222.98158264,"y":124.85820007} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"04","dir":"ltr","width":"7.28","height":"6.55","transform":["6.55","0.00","0.00","6.55","263.29","124.86"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":263.28555297,"y":124.85820007} 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{"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"35.67","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","265.24"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":265.24209594} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Solar","dir":"ltr","width":"16.05","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","249.42"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":249.4217987} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"26.75","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","233.59"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":233.58880615} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Wind","dir":"ltr","width":"15.69","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","217.75"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":217.75419616} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"18.54","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","201.93"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":201.93429565} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Natural ga","dir":"ltr","width":"31.39","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","186.10"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":186.10119628} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.57","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","374.47","186.10"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":374.46774291,"y":186.10119628} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Crude oil","dir":"ltr","width":"27.82","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","170.28"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":170.28120422} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"13.91","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","154.45"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":154.44720458} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Nuclea","dir":"ltr","width":"21.09","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","343.07","138.63"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":343.06549072,"y":138.62820434} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"r","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"6.42","transform":["6.42","0.00","0.00","6.42","364.13","138.63"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+JqwsyjFbntjpDhjwppArial-BoldMT","x":364.1265564,"y":138.62820434} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.61","dir":"ltr","width":"30.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","104.50"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85639953,"y":104.50160217} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Middle East: projection of total primary energy demand (PED) by energy carrier in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.41","104.50"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.40640258,"y":104.50160217} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"scenarios (including electricity import balance)","dir":"ltr","width":"160.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","94.51"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85639953,"y":94.50559997} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":346,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario 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This ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 18% in 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"88% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, renewables will have a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"primary energy share of more than 86% in 2050 (including non-energy consump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":561.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"tion, which will still include fossil fuels). Nuclear energy will be phased-out in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"2035 in both the 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C Scenarios. The cumulative primary energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"consumption of natural gas in the 5.0 °C case will add up to 830 EJ, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"coal consumption to about 10 EJ, and the crude oil consumption to 630 EJ. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will amount to 330 EJ, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"coal demand to 1 EJ, and the cumulative oil demand to 310 EJ. Even lower fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: 280 EJ for natural gas, 0.9 EJ for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"coal, and 270 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"95.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"8.9.2","dir":"ltr","width":"24.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","421.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":421.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"198.15","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","89.86","421.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":89.85829925,"y":421.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East has significant renewable energy potential. The region’s solar radi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1953125,"y":393.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"ation is among the highest in the world and it has good wind conditions in coastal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"areas and in its mountain ranges. The electricity market is fragmented, and policies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"differ significantly. However, most countries are connected to their neighbours by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"transmission lines. Saudi Arabia, the geographic centre of the region, has connec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15130615,"y":345.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"tions to most neighbouring countries. Both the 2.0  °C Scenario and the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"Scenario assume that the Middle East will remain a significant player in the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"market, moving from oil and gas to solar, and that it will play an important role in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"producing synthetic fuels and hydrogen for export.","dir":"ltr","width":"202.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"8.9.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"27.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"The Middle East: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"245.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.36","261.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":91.35829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"The overwhelming majority of fossil-fuel-based power generation in the Middle ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"East is from gas-fired power plants. Both scenarios assume that this gas capacity (in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"GW) will remain on the same level until 2050, but will be converted to hydrogen. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"The annual market for solar PV must increase to 2.5 GW in 2020 and to 28.5 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"by 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and to 35 GW in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The onshore ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"wind market must expand to 10 GW by 2025 in both scenarios. This represents a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"very ambitious target because the market for wind power plants in the Middle East ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"has never been higher than 117 MW (GWEC ","dir":"ltr","width":"182.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.75","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.74830627,"y":153.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":") (in 2015). Parts of the offshore ","dir":"ltr","width":"131.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","256.75","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.74829101,"y":153.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"oil and gas industry can be transitioned into an offshore wind industry. The total ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15979003} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"capacity assumed for the Middle East by 2050 is 20–25 GW under both scenarios. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"For comparison, the UK had an installed capacity for offshore wind of 6.8 GW and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"Germany of 5.4 GW in 2017 (GWEC ","dir":"ltr","width":"151.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.69","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":205.68730163,"y":105.1597824} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"). The vast solar resources in the Middle ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","225.69","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.68730163,"y":105.1597824} {"page":347,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":348,"change":"none","str":"299","dir":"ltr","width":"12.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.71","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.70999145,"y":623.65332031} {"page":348,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.54","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","54.00","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":54,"y":598.1743164} {"page":348,"change":"none","str":"Middle East: average annual change in installed power plant capacity","dir":"ltr","width":"235.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.74","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.73799896,"y":598.1743164} {"page":348,"change":"none","str":"Middle East – power generation: average ","dir":"ltr","width":"141.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.83","582.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.83465919000071,"y":582.4133730800002} {"page":348,"change":"none","str":"annual change of installed capacity [GW/a]","dir":"ltr","width":"147.53","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.83","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.83465919000071,"y":572.4174014100001} {"page":348,"change":"none","str":"2015–2025","dir":"ltr","width":"38.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.23","583.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.2311702600007,"y":583.9263735700001} 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self-supply.","dir":"ltr","width":"184.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"8.57","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.92","249.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.91829681,"y":249.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":" shows a negative residual load in almost all sub-regions for every year ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.42","249.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.41829681,"y":249.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"and in both scenarios. This is attributable to substantial oversupply, so the produc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","237.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":237.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"tion of renewables is almost constantly higher than the demand. 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The [R]E 24/7 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"model does not calculate electricity exchange in 1 h steps between the world regions, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.81170654} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"and therefore the amount of electricity exported accumulates from year to year. 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Iran and Saudi Arabia West Africa ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.81169891} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"will require the highest storage capacity, due to the very high share of solar PV ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.81169891} {"page":351,"change":"none","str":"systems in residential areas. 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{"page":355,"change":"none","str":"total power demand (incl. synfuels & H2)","dir":"ltr","width":"133.45","height":"6.92","transform":["6.92","0.00","0.00","6.92","89.30","99.65"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+WlcdcgCbnbrwSyqkthArial-BoldMT","x":89.30168624000001,"y":99.65037760999999} {"page":355,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.62","dir":"ltr","width":"32.44","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","79.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.858288720000004,"y":79.15197977999999} {"page":355,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of the final energy demand by sector in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","92.04","79.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":92.04028793,"y":79.15197977999999} 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In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":585.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"mately 700 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"sector, the electricity demand will be approximately 2300 TWh/year due to increased ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"electric mobility. 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Therefore, the gross power demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"will rise from 1700 TWh/year in 2015 to 4900 TWh/year in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, 88% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the gross elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13531494,"y":501.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"tricity demand will increase to a maximum of 4800 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"283.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency gains could be even larger in the heating sector than in the electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equivalent to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"more than 10,700 PJ/year is avoided by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"through efficiency gains.","dir":"ltr","width":"98.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"8.10.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"204.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","405.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":369.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in Eastern Europe/Eurasia ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"will come from renewable energy sources in the 2.0  °C Scenario. ‘New’ renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20629882,"y":345.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"ables—mainly wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 75% of the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"electricity generation. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"55% by 2030 and 84% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"about 560 GW by 2030 and 1900 GW by 2050. The share of renewable electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"generation in 2030  in the 1.5  °C Scenario is assumed to be 66%. In the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the generation capacity from renewable energy will be approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"1870 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"74.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"8.59","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.87","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.8683014,"y":249.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in Eastern ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.37","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.3683014,"y":249.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Europe/Eurasia over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"136.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"8.63","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","191.14","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":191.13830566,"y":237.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-","dir":"ltr","width":"176.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","208.64","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":208.63830566,"y":237.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"generation structure in Eastern Europe/Eurasia. From 2020 onwards, the continuing ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"growth of wind and PV, up to 740 GW and 820 GW, respectively, will be comple","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17730712,"y":213.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"mented by up to 30 GW of solar thermal generation, as well as limited biomass, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"geothermal, and ocean energy, in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C Scenario will lead to a high proportion of variable power generation (PV, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"wind, and ocean) of 28% and 32%, respectively, by 2030, and 62% and 61%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"respectively, by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"87.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":356,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"308","dir":"ltr","width":"12.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"8.10.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","260.90"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":260.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Future Costs of Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"272.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","260.90"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":260.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","236.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":236.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"8.64","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.23","236.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.228302,"y":236.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","236.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":236.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"121.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","224.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":224.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","175.70","223.40"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.69979858,"y":223.39880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated ","dir":"ltr","width":"211.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","178.70","224.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.69979858,"y":224.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"43.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","212.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":212.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.5 ct/kWh. ","dir":"ltr","width":"290.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.18","212.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.17978668,"y":212.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when they reach 10 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","200.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":200.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"ct/kWh. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs will increase until 2050, when ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","188.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":188.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"they will reach 8.6 ct/kWh. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 9.3 ct/kWh, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","176.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":176.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"and then drop to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","164.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":164.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"2050 will be 1.4 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","152.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":152.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in 2050 will be 1.1 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","140.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":140.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"these estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","128.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":128.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"260.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","116.90"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":116.89880371} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.59","dir":"ltr","width":"37.11","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.71","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.70680236,"y":598.1743164} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"44.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","588.18"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":588.17834472} {"page":357,"change":"none","str":"in GW","dir":"ltr","width":"22.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69266172999867,"y":573.9189065000005} 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","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Further electrification and synthetic fuel generation in the 1.5  °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"result in total power generation costs that are 55% higher than in the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"323.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","499.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":499.65979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":501.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 6.9 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":489.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the generation costs will increase continuously until 2050, when they ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":477.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"reach 8.6 ct/kWh. They will increase to 8.8 ct/kWh in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":465.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs will reach a maximum, at 1.7 ct/kWh higher ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":453.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"than in the 5.0 °C case, and this will occur in 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the maxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":441.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12979125,"y":441.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"mum difference in generation costs compared with the 5.0 °C case will be 2.6 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":429.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"kWh in 2040. The generation costs in 2050 will still be 2 ct/kWh higher than in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":417.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"88.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":405.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","142.09","403.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.0928955,"y":403.65979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":" costs are not considered, the total electricity supply costs in ","dir":"ltr","width":"242.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","145.09","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":145.0928955,"y":405.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $240 billion in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"216.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":393.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"8.10.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86288833,"y":357.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Future Investments in the Power ","dir":"ltr","width":"250.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","357.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.36289215,"y":357.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"27.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","345.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.36289215,"y":345.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $3600 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":321.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":309.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":297.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19290161,"y":297.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"ment at the end of their economic lives. This value is equivalent to approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":285.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"$100 billion per year on average, and is $2660 billion more than in the 5.0 °C case ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":273.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"($940 billion). An investment of around $3770 billion for power generation will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":261.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"required between 2015 and 2050  in the 1.5  °C Scenario. On average, this is an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":249.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"investment of $105 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":237.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19290161,"y":237.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"ventional power plants will be around 40% of the total cumulative investments, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":225.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"whereas approximately 60% will be invested in renewable power generation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":213.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"79.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":201.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"8.65","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","133.01","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":133.01289367,"y":201.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.51","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.51289367,"y":201.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0  °C (1.5  °C) scenario, Eastern Europe/Eurasia will shift ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86289215,"y":189.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"almost 97% (98%) of its entire investments to renewables and co-generation. By ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":177.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"2030, the fossil fuel share of the power sector investments will predominantly focus ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":165.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"on gas power plants that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"243.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":153.15979003} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86289215,"y":141.15977478} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $1730 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":129.15977478} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $48 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":117.1597824} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 70% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":105.1597824} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $1900 billion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":93.1597824} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"or $53 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86288833,"y":81.1597824} {"page":359,"change":"none","str":"S. 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{"page":362,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","128.67","407.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.67116525999944,"y":407.4168578900002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"109","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.50","407.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.49967172999942,"y":407.4168578900002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"325","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","214.60","407.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.59766366999946,"y":407.4168578900002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"483","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","258.70","407.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.69565560999945,"y":407.4168578900002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"841","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","302.79","407.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.79367806999943,"y":407.4168578900002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"839","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.89","407.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.8916700199994,"y":407.4168578900002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","128.65","395.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.65418221999943,"y":395.5848571500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"109","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.48","395.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.48267343999942,"y":395.5848571500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"361","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","214.58","395.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.58068063999946,"y":395.5848571500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"522","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","258.68","395.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.67868783999944,"y":395.5848571500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"758","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","302.78","395.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.77667978999943,"y":395.5848571500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"805","dir":"ltr","width":"12.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.87","395.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.8746717299994,"y":395.5848571500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"a","dir":"ltr","width":"2.26","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","385.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":385.07435911000016} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Excluding direct electric heating","dir":"ltr","width":"110.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.19","382.24"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.18504693999944,"y":382.2438537400002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"per year. The largest share of the investments in Eastern Europe/Eurasia is assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":357.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"to be for heat pumps (around $490 billion), followed by solar collectors and bio","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":345.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","345.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20825936999944,"y":345.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"mass technologies. The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":333.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","333.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1532361899994,"y":333.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"able technologies. However, the lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":321.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Scenario) will result in a lower average annual investment of around $29 billion per ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":309.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"year (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":297.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"8.61","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","101.37","297.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.36824778999943,"y":297.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","118.87","297.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.86824778999943,"y":297.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"8.67","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","142.21","297.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.20824410999944,"y":297.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","159.71","297.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.70824410999944,"y":297.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"8.10.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85824563999944,"y":261.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"151.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","261.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35824563999944,"y":261.4138366500002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector in Eastern Europe/Eurasia is expected to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":237.41383665000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 34%, from around 6000 PJ/year in 2015 to 8000 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":225.41383665000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behav","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":213.41383665000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","213.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2162549899994,"y":213.41383665000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"ioural changes will save 48% (3840 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":201.41383665000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":189.41383665000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"transport demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":177.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"62% (or 4970 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"269.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":165.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"8.62","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","322.77","165.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.76825692999944,"y":165.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"22.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","340.27","165.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.26825692999944,"y":165.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"8.68","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.19","165.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.1882703599994,"y":165.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.69","165.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.6882703599994,"y":165.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 14% (240 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","153.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86825540999943,"y":153.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 54% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","141.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.868255409999435,"y":141.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"(630 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 410 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","129.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.868255409999435,"y":129.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","129.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22025278999945,"y":129.41382139000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","117.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.868255409999435,"y":117.41382902000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 510 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","105.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.868255409999435,"y":105.41382902000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 330 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"169.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","93.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.868255409999435,"y":93.41382902000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 720 PJ/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","81.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86825540999943,"y":81.41382902000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","69.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.868255409999435,"y":69.41382902000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","69.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1882703599994,"y":69.41382902000018} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85824563999944,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":362,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60824563999944,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"314","dir":"ltr","width":"11.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"duced, with a maximum amount of 880 PJ/year in 2050. With the lower overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":256.33758544} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"energy demand in transport, biofuel use will also be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":244.33758544} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"to a maximum of 700 PJ/year The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.33758544} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"540 PJ/year.","dir":"ltr","width":"48.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.33758544} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"8.10.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.34"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":184.33758544} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"193.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","184.34"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":184.33758544} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","289.66","182.84"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":289.65618896,"y":182.8376007} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","292.66","184.34"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":292.65618896,"y":184.3376007} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"235.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","160.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85620117,"y":160.3376007} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","289.07","158.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":289.0656128,"y":158.8376007} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":" emissions will increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"95.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","292.07","160.34"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":292.0656128,"y":160.3376007} {"page":363,"change":"none","str":"by 14%, from 2420 Mt. in 2015 to 2768 Mt. in 2050. 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{"page":364,"change":"none","str":"02","dir":"ltr","width":"7.24","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","156.74","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":156.74482320000004,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"52","dir":"ltr","width":"82.39","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","164.03","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":164.03062032000008,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"03","dir":"ltr","width":"7.24","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","208.85","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":208.84585165000004,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"02","dir":"ltr","width":"82.39","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","216.13","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":216.13166402000007,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"04","dir":"ltr","width":"7.24","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","260.95","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":260.94686483000004,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"02","dir":"ltr","width":"82.39","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","268.23","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":268.2326924700001,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"05","dir":"ltr","width":"7.24","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","313.05","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":313.04787801000003,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.62","height":"6.51","transform":["6.51","0.00","0.00","6.51","320.33","197.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":320.33370565000007,"y":197.04034727000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"PJ/yr","dir":"ltr","width":"17.95","height":"7.34","transform":["0.00","7.34","-7.34","0.00","60.16","288.61"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":60.15508626000007,"y":288.6110412400002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"27.61","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","342.75"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":342.7510558900002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"(compared to","dir":"ltr","width":"37.02","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","335.74"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":335.7374450500002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C)","dir":"ltr","width":"16.63","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","328.72"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":328.72365111000016} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Hydrogen","dir":"ltr","width":"27.32","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","313.41"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":313.4126464600002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Electricit","dir":"ltr","width":"24.75","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","296.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":296.0410339100002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"y","dir":"ltr","width":"3.25","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","373.20","296.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":373.2030904100001,"y":296.0410339100002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Synfuels","dir":"ltr","width":"24.41","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","278.67"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":278.6685363500002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Biofuels","dir":"ltr","width":"23.15","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","261.30"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":261.29533689000016} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Natural Ga","dir":"ltr","width":"29.56","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","243.91"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":243.90834348000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.25","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","378.10","243.91"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":378.09508871,"y":243.90834348000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Oil products","dir":"ltr","width":"34.50","height":"5.84","transform":["5.84","0.00","0.00","5.84","348.49","226.53"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+SrysgfNklplkSkyltcArial-BoldMT","x":348.49169515000006,"y":226.53435056000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.68","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","176.70"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85838674000007,"y":176.69874876000017} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: final energy consumption by transport in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"268.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","176.70"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39989065000007,"y":176.69874876000017} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"122.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","151.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85838674000007,"y":151.8688537400002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","188.84","150.37"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":188.8410909000001,"y":150.3688537400002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":" emissions will decrease by 53% in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"197.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","191.84","151.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":191.8410909000001,"y":151.8688537400002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Scenario and by 62% in the 1.5 °C Scenario compared with the 5.0 °C case. A rapid ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86108755000007,"y":139.8688537400002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"reduction in annual emissions will occur in both alternative scenarios. In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86108755000007,"y":127.86884611000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, this reduction will be greatest in ‘Power generation’, followed by the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86108755000007,"y":115.86884611000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"‘Residential and other’ and ‘Industry’ sectors (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86108755000007,"y":103.86884611000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"8.69","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","259.38","103.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.3810994500001,"y":103.86884611000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.88","103.87"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.8810994500001,"y":103.86884611000018} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85838674000007,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":364,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60838674000007,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"316","dir":"ltr","width":"11.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"8.10.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.20"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":330.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"239.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","330.20"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":330.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","306.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":306.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"8.70","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.94","294.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.93829345,"y":294.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.44","294.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.43829345,"y":294.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 25%, from around 46,000 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"PJ/year in 2015 to 34,600 PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"overall primary energy demand will decrease by 40% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"(5.0 °C: 57,700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"be even lower (33,600 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","210.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":210.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"will cause renewable energy to have a primary energy share of 26% in 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.20"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.19659423} {"page":365,"change":"none","str":"91% in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. 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Besides solar PV and onshore wind, bioenergy has significant potential in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","128.37"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":128.36709594} {"page":366,"change":"none","str":"Eurasia, especially in the European part, Russia, and the agricultural regions around ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","116.37"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":116.36708831} {"page":366,"change":"none","str":"the Caspian Sea (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"94.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","104.37"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":104.36708831} {"page":366,"change":"none","str":"8.63","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.04","104.37"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.03729248,"y":104.36708831} {"page":366,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","165.54","104.37"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.53729248,"y":104.36708831} {"page":366,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":366,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"318","dir":"ltr","width":"11.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"8.10.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","354.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":354.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"Eurasia: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"222.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","354.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":354.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"Variable power generation starts at almost zero, but increases rapidly to over 30% in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"most sub-regions of Eurasia, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"190.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":318.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"8.64","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","244.40","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":244.3972931,"y":318.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","261.90","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":261.89730834,"y":318.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","306.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":306.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"8.64","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.84","306.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.83830261,"y":306.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":" shows that dispatchable renewables will experience stable market ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","109.34","306.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":109.33830261,"y":306.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"conditions throughout the entire modelling period across the whole region. 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The capacity factor of variable renewables will rise by 2030, mainly ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.88","198.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.87830352,"y":198.07330322} {"page":367,"change":"none","str":"due to increased deployment of wind and concentrated solar power with storage. 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{"page":370,"change":"none","str":"8.64","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.52","314.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.51833699000017,"y":314.83732896000004} {"page":370,"change":"none","str":". However, after 2030, significant increases will be required by 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.02","314.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.01833699000017,"y":314.83732896000004} {"page":370,"change":"none","str":"especially in Russia. The export of renewable electricity can also take place via ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","302.84"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85833333000016,"y":302.83732896000004} {"page":370,"change":"none","str":"existing gas pipelines with power-to-gas technologies. 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In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"217.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","171.59","497.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.58828631999998,"y":497.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 111% from the cur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","485.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":485.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","485.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17829790999997,"y":485.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"rent 24,500 PJ/year to 51,800 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the final ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","473.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":473.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"energy demand will increase at a much lower rate by 16% compared with current ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","461.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":461.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"consumption, and will reach 28,300 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":449.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenario will reach 25,700 PJ, 5% above the 2015 demand. In the 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":437.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the final energy demand in 2050 will be 9% lower than in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","425.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":425.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The electricity demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","413.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":413.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"to-","dir":"ltr","width":"11.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","401.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":401.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"heat or e-mobility) will increase from 830 TWh/year in 2015 to 2480 TWh/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.97","401.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.96828356999998,"y":401.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"in 2050 in both alternative scenarios. Compared with the reference case (3880 TWh/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","389.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":389.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"year in 2050), the efficiency measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios will save ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","377.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":377.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"1400 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"98.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","365.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":365.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","353.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85828295999998,"y":353.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","341.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":341.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","341.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16029254,"y":341.79381255999994} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828295999998,"y":623.65330963} {"page":374,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60828295999998,"y":623.65330963} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"326","dir":"ltr","width":"12.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"mately 1500 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"sector, the electricity demand will be approximately 1700 TWh/year due to electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport and high-temperature process ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly for transport) will add an addi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":561.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"tional power demand of 1700 TWh/year. Therefore, the gross power demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"rise from 1400 TWh/year in 2015 to 6400 TWh/year in 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"33% higher than in the 5.0  °C case. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the gross electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"demand will increase to a maximum of 6000 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"256.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than those in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"electricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to about 6900 PJ/year and 8100 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario, through efficiency gains.","dir":"ltr","width":"266.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"8.11.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"171.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","429.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":393.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in Non-OECD Asia will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"come from renewable energy sources in the 2.0  °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"mainly wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 87% of the total electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":357.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"ity generation. 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In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"generation capacity from renewable energy will be approximately 2320 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"8.68","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.81","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.8082962,"y":285.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in Non-","dir":"ltr","width":"277.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.31","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.3082962,"y":285.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"OECD Asia over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"127.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"8.72","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.14","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.13830566,"y":273.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-","dir":"ltr","width":"184.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","200.64","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.63830566,"y":273.15979003} {"page":375,"change":"none","str":"generation structure in Non-OECD Asia. 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In both ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":328.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios, the generation costs in 2050 will be around 5.5 ct/kWh lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":316.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"than in the 5.0 °C case. Note that these estimates of generation costs do not take into ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":304.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage, or other load-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":292.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"81.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":280.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","268.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":268.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $70 billion/year to more ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":256.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"than $560 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":244.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"$430 billion/year and in the 1.5  °C Scenario they will be $390 billion/year. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"long-term costs for electricity supply will be more than 24% lower in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"Scenario than in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":208.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"the electrification of heating and mobility. Further reductions in demand in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario will result in total power generation costs that are 30% lower than ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":184.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"in the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"72.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":172.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","160.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":160.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","158.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":158.65429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","160.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":160.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0  °C case to 7.4 ct/kWh. In the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","148.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":148.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, they still increase until 2030, when they reach 6.5 ct/kWh, and then drop ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","136.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":136.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"to 6.3 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 6.9 ct/kWh and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","124.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":124.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"then drop to 6.1 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C case, the generation costs will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","112.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":112.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"maximum in 2050, and 1.1 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C, whereas they will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","100.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":100.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"1.3 ct/kWh in the 1.5  °C Scenario. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"186.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","88.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":88.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","240.71","86.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.71270751,"y":86.65429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":" costs are not considered, the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.71","88.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.71270751,"y":88.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will increase to about $360 billion/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","76.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":76.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","64.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":64.15429684000003} {"page":377,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.6533202800001} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"329","dir":"ltr","width":"12.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.99","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.99050903,"y":623.65332031} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"8.11.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"245.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"An investment of $4030 billion will be required for power generation between 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including investment in additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in plant replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":549.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"ment at the end of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2243042,"y":537.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"mately $112 billion per year on average, and is $2660 billion more than in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case ($1370 billion). An investment of around $3950 billion for power gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":513.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"eration will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"this is an investment of $110 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"in conventional power plants will be around 55% of the total cumulative invest","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":477.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"ments, whereas approximately 45% will be invested in renewable power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"and co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"96.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"8.74","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","149.95","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.94830322,"y":453.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","167.45","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.44830322,"y":453.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, Non-OECD Asia will shift almost 93% ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"(95%) of its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"fuel share of power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"161.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"Fossil","dir":"ltr","width":"19.75","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","254.54","260.90"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":254.54499816,"y":260.89749145} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"54%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.47","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","256.68","250.11"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":256.68432617,"y":250.1109314} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"27.99","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","136.07","290.09"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":136.07261657,"y":290.09310913} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"1%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.91","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","144.61","279.31"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":144.611969,"y":279.30654907} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"CHP","dir":"ltr","width":"14.94","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","142.60","324.73"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":142.59848022,"y":324.72695922} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"1%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.91","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","144.61","313.94"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":144.611969,"y":313.94039916} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"Renewabl","dir":"ltr","width":"35.44","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","241.96","363.18"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":241.9606781,"y":363.1810608} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"e","dir":"ltr","width":"4.44","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","277.47","363.18"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":277.46643066,"y":363.1810608} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"44%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.47","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","254.20","352.39"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":254.20341491,"y":352.39450073} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"78.39","height":"9.99","transform":["9.99","0.00","0.00","9.99","136.53","376.01"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KkfbttBbrfprVcdjxqArialMT","x":136.52690124,"y":376.01019287} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"total 1,366 ","dir":"ltr","width":"41.31","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","196.67","311.90"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":196.66900634,"y":311.89538574} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"28.57","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","203.04","301.11"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":203.04206848,"y":301.10882568} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"Fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.78","height":"8.99","transform":["8.99","0.00","0.00","8.99","167.19","205.09"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+HpkfxgKpctylCtgmjvCalibri-Light","x":167.18800354,"y":205.08850097} {"page":378,"change":"none","str":"(incl. 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The fuel cost ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $2770 billion, or $77 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"317.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"8.11.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"191.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","513.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase by 103% in the 5.0 °C scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"from 10,800 PJ/year in 2015 to 21,900 PJ/year in 2050. 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Renewable energy will provide 57% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"of Non-OECD Asia’s total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 70% in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenario. In both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"heat demand in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"86.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"8.75","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.27","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.26830291,"y":381.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different technologies for heating in Non-","dir":"ltr","width":"273.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","111.77","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":111.76830291,"y":381.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"OECD Asia over time, and Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"133.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"8.69","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","187.64","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.63830566,"y":369.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":" provides the resulting renewable heat supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"182.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.14","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":205.13830566,"y":369.15979003} {"page":379,"change":"none","str":"for all scenarios. 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Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"331","dir":"ltr","width":"11.57","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.46","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.45800781,"y":623.65332031} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"8.11.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Future Investments in the Heating Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"252.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","367.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"will amount to around $1120 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"for the replacement of plants after their economic lifetimes), or approximately $31 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"billion per year. The largest share of investment in Non-OECD Asia is assumed to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"be for solar collectors (around $480 billion), followed by heat pumps and geother","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","295.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":295.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"mal heat use. The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"technologies. However, the lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0 °C Scenario) ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"will results in a lower average annual investment of around $28 billion per year ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":259.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"(Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"8.70","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.66","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.6583023,"y":247.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","99.16","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.1583023,"y":247.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"8.76","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","122.50","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":122.49829864,"y":247.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","140.00","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.99830627,"y":247.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"8.11.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":211.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"119.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","211.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":211.41378784} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"The energy demand in the transport sector in Non-OECD Asia is expected to ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"increase in 2015  in the 5.0  °C Scenario from around 6500 PJ/year by 102% to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"13,200 PJ/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"behavioural changes will save 63% (8320 PJ/year) by 2050 compared to the 5.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.41377258} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"transport demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"73% (or 9660 PJ/year) by 2050 compared to the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"268.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"8.71","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","321.73","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.728302,"y":115.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.23","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.228302,"y":115.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"8.77","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.19","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.18832397,"y":115.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.69","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.68832397,"y":115.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 6% (120 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","103.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86830902,"y":103.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 36% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","91.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86830902,"y":91.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"(480 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 650 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","79.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86830902,"y":79.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","79.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2203064,"y":79.41378021} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.69","dir":"ltr","width":"37.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable heat supply in the scenarios (excluding ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.83","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.83429718,"y":598.1743164} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"the direct use of electricity)","dir":"ltr","width":"93.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","588.18"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":588.17834472} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"in PJ/year","dir":"ltr","width":"33.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69305395000007,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Case","dir":"ltr","width":"16.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","187.96","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.95855688000006,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","219.94","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.93554662000008,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","254.18","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.18205236000006,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","288.43","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":288.42855810000003,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.68","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.67504858000007,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","356.92","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.92153905000004,"y":573.9188720500002} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"29.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","561.27"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.68456244000007,"y":561.2708617900001} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","187.95","561.27"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":187.9500577400001,"y":561.2708617900001} {"page":380,"change":"none","str":"4459","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","219.93","561.27"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.92704748000006,"y":561.2708617900001} 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","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86069107,"y":501.15979003} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"in 2040 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 330 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86069107,"y":489.15979003} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"reductions to almost zero by 2050. 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8.78","dir":"ltr","width":"31.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","111.44"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":111.43710327} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"130.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.68","111.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.68029785,"y":111.43710327} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","220.84","110.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.84080505,"y":110.16210174} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":" emissions by sector and cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"138.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","223.39","111.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":223.39079284,"y":111.43710327} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","361.67","110.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.66931152,"y":110.16210174} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"18.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","364.22","111.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.21929931,"y":111.43710327} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","382.68","111.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.68130493,"y":111.43710327} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"sions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario)","dir":"ltr","width":"317.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","101.44"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879898,"y":101.44110107} {"page":383,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"335","dir":"ltr","width":"12.12","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.18","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.1783142,"y":623.65332031} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"8.11.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"206.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"8.79","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.94","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.93829345,"y":561.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.44","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.43829345,"y":561.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the primary energy demand will increase by 13%, from around 38,100 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"year in 2015 to 43,200 PJ/year. Compared with the 5.0  °C Scenario, the overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"primary energy demand will decrease by 47% by 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"(5.0 °C: 81600 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"be even lower (39,300 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario aim to rapidly phase-out coal and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":384,"change":"none","str":"oil. 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{"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia is the most heterogeneous region of all IEA world energy regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"because it includes not only all the ASEAN countries (ASEAN ","dir":"ltr","width":"252.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.38","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.37631225,"y":477.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":") of South East ","dir":"ltr","width":"61.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.38","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.37631225,"y":477.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Asia, but also central and south Asian nations, as well all 16 Pacific Island states. As ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"for the Caribbean Islands, a power system assessment—especially with regard to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"possible storage demand—that examines all Pacific Island states together rather ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"than individually, is not sufficient to provide the actual required storage demand. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"However, with this is in mind, the ratio of solar PV generation to storage require","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1282959,"y":417.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"ments does provide some indication. A specific assessment for each of the Pacific ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Island states is required, but is beyond the scope of this study. Indonesia and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Philippines are selected as sub-regions because they are island states with some ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"interconnection between islands.","dir":"ltr","width":"130.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"8.11.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"244.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","333.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia’s renewable power market can be subdivided into the following ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"categories: technologies for small and medium islands (mainly solar PV–battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"systems, mini-hydro and small-scale bioenergy systems); and utility-scale solar and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind for all major economies in mainland Asia or on the large islands of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"the Philippines and Indonesia. Several countries in this region are on the Pacific ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Ring of Fire and have significant geothermal energy resources. The annual market ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"for geothermal power plants is one of the world’s largest, with a projected 3–4 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"each year for almost two decades between 2025 and 2045  in both scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"(Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"8.72","dir":"ltr","width":"17.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.80","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.7983017,"y":213.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","99.38","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.37830352,"y":213.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"8.11.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"260.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":177.15979003} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"Due to the geographic diversity and wide distribution of all sub-regions of the Non-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"OECD Asia region, it is assumed that there are no interconnection capacities avail","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":141.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"able, and that there will not be any at the end of the modelling period (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"308.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"8.73","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.18","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.1783142,"y":129.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.68","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.6783142,"y":129.15977478} {"page":385,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"337","dir":"ltr","width":"12.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.09","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.08990478,"y":623.65332031} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"In both scenarios, variable power generation will jump from only 1% today to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","354.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":354.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"around 25% in all sub-regions, whereas dispatchable renewables will remain stable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"at around 25%–30% until 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"127.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"Compared with other world regions, the capacity factors for limited dispatchable ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":318.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"fossil and nuclear energy will remain relatively high until 2030, as shown in ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"8.74","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","79.15","294.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":79.14830017,"y":294.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":". The time required for variable power generation to replace fossil and ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.65","294.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.64830017,"y":294.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"nuclear generation will be greater than it is in other regions. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"all coal capacities across the region will be phased out by 2030, except for 4 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"(equivalent to 4–5 power plants), which will be off-line 5 years later.","dir":"ltr","width":"274.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"8.11.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":222.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"Non-OECD Asia: Development of Load, Generation, ","dir":"ltr","width":"226.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","222.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":222.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"and Residual Load","dir":"ltr","width":"80.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","210.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":210.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"Because both scenarios were calculated under the assumption that there are no ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","186.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":186.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"interconnection capacities at the sub-regional level, more dispatch capacity will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"deployed. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"66.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"8.75","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","121.51","162.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":121.50830078,"y":162.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":" shows that only Asia North-West and Asia South-West will ","dir":"ltr","width":"249.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","139.01","162.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.00830078,"y":162.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"require some interconnection to avoid curtailment. The development of the maxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","150.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":150.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"mum load, generation, and the resulting residual load—the load remaining after ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.07330322} {"page":386,"change":"none","str":"Table 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Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00006564000006,"y":623.6534495599996} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"345","dir":"ltr","width":"12.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.87","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.87060546,"y":623.65332031} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"8.12","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"India","dir":"ltr","width":"27.35","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","595.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","569.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":569.78979492} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"India: Long-Term Energy Pathways","dir":"ltr","width":"177.97","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","569.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":569.78979492} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","545.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":545.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"India: Final Energy Demand by Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"165.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","545.79"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":545.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"The future development pathways for India’s final energy demand when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","521.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":521.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","521.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18630981,"y":521.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"tions on population growth, GDP growth, and energy intensity are combined are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","509.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":509.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","497.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":497.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"8.80","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","115.12","497.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":115.1183014,"y":497.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":" for the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and 1.5  °C Scenarios. In the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"256.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","132.62","497.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.6183014,"y":497.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the total final energy demand will increase by 201% from the current ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","485.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":485.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"22,200 PJ/year to 66,800 PJ/year by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the final energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","473.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":473.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"demand will increase at a much slower rate by 57% compared with current con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","461.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":461.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","461.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":461.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"sumption and will reach 34,900 PJ/year by 2050. The final energy demand in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":449.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"1.5  °C Scenario will reach 31,900 PJ, 44% above the 2015 level. In the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":437.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the final energy demand in 2050 will be 9% lower than in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","425.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":425.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The electricity demand for ‘classical’ electrical devices (without power-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","413.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":413.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"to-","dir":"ltr","width":"11.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","401.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":401.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"heat or e-mobility) will increase from 750 TWh/year in 2015 to 3200 TWh/year ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","64.97","401.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":64.96829986,"y":401.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"in 2050 in both alternative scenarios. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (4720 TWh/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","389.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":389.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"year in 2050), efficiency measures in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios will save ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","377.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":377.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"around 1520 TWh/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"130.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","365.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":365.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","353.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":353.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"273.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","341.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":341.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.74","341.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.73831176,"y":341.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":"1900 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps, and in the transport sector, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","329.79"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":329.79382324} {"page":394,"change":"none","str":" 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Therefore, the gross power demand will increase ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"from 1400 TWh/year in 2015 to 8400 TWh/year in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"31% higher than in the 5.0  °C case. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the gross electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"demand will increases to a maximum of 7700 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"260.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equivalent to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"about 9500 PJ/year and 9800 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided through effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":489.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"ciency gains by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"229.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"India: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"123.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","441.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":405.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in India will come from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy sources in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—mainly wind, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 90% of the total electricity genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":369.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"tion. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be 66% by 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"89% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 1060 GW by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"2030 and 3360 GW by 2050. The share of renewable electricity generation in ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"2030 in the 1.5 °C Scenario is assumed to be 77%. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22131347,"y":321.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"eration capacity from renewable energy will be approximately 3040 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"325.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"8.77","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.81","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.8082962,"y":297.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in India ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.31","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.3082962,"y":297.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"71.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"8.81","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.64","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.63829803,"y":285.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-generation struc","dir":"ltr","width":"239.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.14","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.13830566,"y":285.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":285.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"ture in India. From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and PV up to 1270 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"GW and 1570 GW, respectively, is complemented by up to 210 GW solar thermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"generation, as well as limited biomass, geothermal, and ocean energy, in the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario will lead to a high propor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":237.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"tion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 48% and 60%, respec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":225.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"tively, by 2030, and 75% and 72%, respectively, by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"229.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"India: Future Costs of Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"192.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"8.82","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.23","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.228302,"y":153.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":153.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"113.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","167.54","139.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.53979492,"y":139.6598053} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec","dir":"ltr","width":"211.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.54","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.53979492,"y":141.1598053} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17977905,"y":141.1598053} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"tricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 5.4 ct/kWh. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":129.1598053} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2040, when they reach 11 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":117.15979766} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"kWh, and then drop to 10.7 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs will increase in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":105.15979766} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030, when they reach 8.4 ct/kWh, and then drop to 5.7 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":93.15979766} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"kWh by 2050. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, they will increase to 7.8 ct/kWh, and then ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":81.15979766} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"drop to 5.8 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation costs in 2050 will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":69.15979766} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"be 5 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":57.15980148} {"page":395,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"347","dir":"ltr","width":"12.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.93","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.92590332,"y":623.65332031} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.77","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"India: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"271.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"in GW","dir":"ltr","width":"22.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","583.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69266172999867,"y":583.9189065000006} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"Case","dir":"ltr","width":"16.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","124.60","583.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.59916349999867,"y":583.9189065000006} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","167.11","583.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.10765501999867,"y":583.9189065000006} {"page":396,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","211.89","583.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":211.89415403999868,"y":583.9189065000006} 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Note that these esti","dir":"ltr","width":"328.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","332.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":332.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.24","332.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23529052,"y":332.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"mates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","320.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":320.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"233.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","308.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":308.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","296.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":296.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $75 billion/year to more ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","284.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":284.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"than $690 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C case, the total supply costs will be $500 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","272.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":272.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"billion/year and in the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will be $470 billion/year. The long-","dir":"ltr","width":"313.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","260.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":260.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"term ","dir":"ltr","width":"20.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","367.21","260.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":367.20828247,"y":260.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"costs for electricity supply will be more than 27% lower in the 2.0 °C Scenario than ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","248.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":248.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"in the 5.0 °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the electrifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","236.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":236.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","236.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":236.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"cation of heating and mobility. Further demand reductions in the 1.5  °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","224.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":224.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"will result in total power generation costs that are 32% lower than in the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","212.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":212.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs, when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"256.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","200.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":200.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.92","198.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.91860961,"y":198.59689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.90","200.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.90060424,"y":200.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"are not considered, will increase in the 5.0 °C case to only 6.9 ct/kWh. In both alter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","188.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":188.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","188.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18060302,"y":188.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"native scenarios, they will still increase until 2030, when they reach 6.7 ct/kWh, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","176.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":176.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"then drop to around 5.8 ct/kWh by 2050. The maximum difference in generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","164.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":164.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"costs will be around 1 ct/kWh in 2050. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"193.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","152.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86059951,"y":152.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","247.74","150.60"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":247.73590087,"y":150.59689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":" costs are not considered, the total ","dir":"ltr","width":"137.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","250.72","152.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":250.71780395,"y":152.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"electricity supply costs in the 5.0 °C case will rise to about $430 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","140.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":140.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","104.10"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85779953,"y":104.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"India: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"197.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","104.10"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35780334,"y":104.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $5640 billion will be required for power generation between ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","80.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":80.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants for the pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","68.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":68.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","68.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22479248,"y":68.09689331} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"duction of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in the replacement of plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","56.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":56.0968895} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"after the end of their economic lifetimes. This value is equivalent to approximately $157 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","44.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779953,"y":44.0968895} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"4.45","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","361.64","457.32"],"fontName":"RZTODG+PklfjqDthqxvNqwlrqArialMT","x":361.63729858,"y":457.32238763000004} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"4.45","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","361.64","480.63"],"fontName":"RZTODG+PklfjqDthqxvNqwlrqArialMT","x":361.63729858,"y":480.62640373000005} {"page":397,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"4.45","height":"8.00","transform":["8.00","0.00","0.00","8.00","361.64","503.93"],"fontName":"RZTODG+PklfjqDthqxvNqwlrqArialMT","x":361.63729858,"y":503.9303893300001} 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Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00008392,"y":623.6533226900001} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"349","dir":"ltr","width":"12.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.81","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.8110962,"y":623.65332031} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"billion per year on average, and is $3310 billion more than in the 5.0 °C case ($2330 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"billion). An investment of around $5560 billion for power generation will be required ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, this will be an investment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"of $154 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the investment in conventional power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"plants will be around 48% of the total cumulative investments, whereas approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"52% will be invested in renewable power generation and co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"294.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"8.83","dir":"ltr","width":"16.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","348.03","246.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":348.02929687,"y":246.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","364.81","246.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.80929565,"y":246.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, India will shift almost 94% (95%) of ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","234.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":234.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","210.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":210.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"144.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","186.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":186.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $3110 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $86 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 90% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $3330 billion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"or $93 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","126.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":126.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","90.11"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":90.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"India: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"143.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","90.11"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":90.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 133%, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","66.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":66.11450195} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"from 11,900 PJ/year in 2015 to 27,800 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","54.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":54.11449813} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 34% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","42.11"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":42.11449813} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Fossil","dir":"ltr","width":"18.95","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","279.26","505.98"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":279.25808715,"y":505.97628784} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"43%","dir":"ltr","width":"14.85","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","281.27","495.41"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":281.26800537,"y":495.40905761} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"26.86","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","164.17","499.00"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":164.17462158,"y":498.99761962} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"5%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.47","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","172.41","488.42"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":172.41273498,"y":488.42178344} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"CHP","dir":"ltr","width":"14.34","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","161.82","522.63"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":161.81964111,"y":522.62506103} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.47","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","163.77","512.05"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":163.7691803,"y":512.04919433} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Renewable","dir":"ltr","width":"38.34","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","264.27","581.35"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":264.27420043,"y":581.35290527} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"52%","dir":"ltr","width":"14.85","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","276.02","571.00"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":276.02322387,"y":571.00134277} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"81.45","height":"10.38","transform":["10.38","0.00","0.00","10.38","155.85","595.08"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KkfbttBbrfprVcdjxqArialMT","x":155.85209655,"y":595.0847168} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"total 2,330 ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.65","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","212.45","546.19"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":212.45210266,"y":546.18908691} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"27.41","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","217.52","535.61"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":217.51574707,"y":535.61322021} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"20.90","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","176.26","457.85"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":176.2631073,"y":457.84588623} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"(incl. H2)","dir":"ltr","width":"30.90","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","170.23","447.27"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":170.23332214,"y":447.27005004} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"6%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.47","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","180.41","436.76"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":180.41235351,"y":436.76321411} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"CHP","dir":"ltr","width":"14.34","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","197.25","421.50"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":197.250885,"y":421.50326538} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"4%","dir":"ltr","width":"10.47","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","199.20","410.93"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":199.20043945,"y":410.9274292} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Renewable","dir":"ltr","width":"38.34","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","58.35","419.45"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":58.35021972,"y":419.45022583} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"90%","dir":"ltr","width":"14.85","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","70.10","409.10"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":70.09924316,"y":409.09866333} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"81.45","height":"10.38","transform":["10.38","0.00","0.00","10.38","53.83","466.11"],"fontName":"RZTODG+KkfbttBbrfprVcdjxqArialMT","x":53.83110046,"y":466.10501098} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"total 5,640 ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.65","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","124.64","398.05"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":124.63580322,"y":398.04699707} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"billion $","dir":"ltr","width":"27.41","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","129.69","387.47"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":129.69082641,"y":387.47116088} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"Fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"20.90","height":"8.63","transform":["8.63","0.00","0.00","8.63","358.75","455.14"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QrffsrNfcdkpXbhpqcCalibri-Light","x":358.74609375,"y":455.14300537} {"page":398,"change":"none","str":"(incl. 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Today, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","180.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":180.71730041} {"page":399,"change":"none","str":"renewables supply around 47% of India’s final energy demand for heating, with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","168.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":168.71730041} {"page":399,"change":"none","str":"main contribution from biomass. Renewable energy will provide 53% of India’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","156.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":156.71730041} {"page":399,"change":"none","str":"total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 68% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. 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Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009912000036,"y":623.6533443600003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"351","dir":"ltr","width":"11.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.41","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.41461181,"y":623.65332031} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1600 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"electricity for heating will also increase by a factor of about 21 between 2015 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2050, and the electricity for heating will have a final energy share of 36% in 2050 in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"both alternative scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"104.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"India: Future Investments in the Heating Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"204.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","525.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"amount to around $930 billion in the 2.0  °C Scenario (including investments for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"replacement after the economic lifetimes of the plants), or approximately $26 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"per year. The largest share of investment in India is assumed to be for solar collectors ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"(around $490 billion), followed by heat pumps and biomass technologies. The 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technologies and results in a ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"higher average annual investment of around $29 billion per year (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"271.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"8.79","dir":"ltr","width":"17.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.50","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.49829101,"y":429.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","341.60","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.59829711,"y":429.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"8.85","dir":"ltr","width":"17.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.69","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.68829345,"y":429.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.79","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.78829956,"y":429.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","393.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86828994,"y":393.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"India: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"71.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.37","393.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.36829376,"y":393.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"The energy demand in the transport sector in India is expected to increase in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":369.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario by 377%, from around 3600 PJ/year in 2015 to 17,200 PJ/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":357.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":345.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"will save 66% (11,280 PJ/year) by 2050 compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario. Additional ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":333.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport demand will lead ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":321.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 81% (or 13,930 PJ/year) in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":309.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"175.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":297.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"8.80","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","228.98","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.97628784,"y":297.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.48","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.47628784,"y":297.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"8.86","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.82","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.81628417,"y":297.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.32","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.31628417,"y":297.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 10% (160 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.87","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86829376,"y":285.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 58% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.87","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86828994,"y":273.15979003} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"Table 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{"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.13","237.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.13445262000033,"y":237.21828099999982} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","215.23","237.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.23244456000032,"y":237.21828099999982} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","259.33","237.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.33045177000037,"y":237.21828099999982} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","303.43","237.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.42844371000035,"y":237.21828099999982} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","347.53","237.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.52646617000033,"y":237.21828099999982} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"29.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.29","224.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.293956560000325,"y":224.5702859999998} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","129.29","224.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":129.28896312000035,"y":224.5702859999998} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2049","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.12","224.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.11745433000033,"y":224.5702859999998} 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{"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","129.27","212.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":129.27196483000034,"y":212.7382852599998} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"2049","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.10","212.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.10047130000032,"y":212.7382852599998} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"1954","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","215.20","212.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.1984632400003,"y":212.7382852599998} {"page":400,"change":"none","str":"1798","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","259.30","212.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":259.29648570000035,"y":212.7382852599998} 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{"page":400,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60824565000033,"y":623.6532938099998} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"352","dir":"ltr","width":"12.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"(950 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 860 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","254.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":254.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","254.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21029663,"y":254.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","242.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":242.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 560 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","230.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":230.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 590 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"169.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","218.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":218.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0 °C Scenario to a maximum of around 1000 PJ/year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","206.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":206.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be introduced, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","194.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":194.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"with a maximum amount of 610 PJ/year in 2050. Due to the lower overall energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","182.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":182.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"demand in transport, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maximum ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","170.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":170.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"of 510 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 310 PJ/year.","dir":"ltr","width":"316.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","158.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":158.31660461} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","122.32"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":122.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"India: Development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"112.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","122.32"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":122.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","209.16","120.82"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":209.15719604,"y":120.81659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","212.16","122.32"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":212.15719604,"y":122.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, India’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"168.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","98.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85720062,"y":98.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","222.56","96.82"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.56410217,"y":96.81659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":" emissions will increase by 236%, from ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","225.56","98.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.56410217,"y":98.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"2060 Mt. in 2015 to 6950 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","86.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85411071,"y":86.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 930 Mt. in 2040 in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","74.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85411071,"y":74.31659698} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and to 200 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further reductions to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","62.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85411071,"y":62.3166008} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.93","height":"7.93","transform":["7.93","0.00","0.00","7.93","150.60","487.03"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light","x":150.60020446,"y":487.02859497} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"technologie","dir":"ltr","width":"37.53","height":"7.93","transform":["7.93","0.00","0.00","7.93","144.27","478.03"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light","x":144.26765441,"y":478.02511596} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"3.07","height":"7.93","transform":["7.93","0.00","0.00","7.93","181.79","478.03"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light","x":181.78744506,"y":478.02511596} {"page":401,"change":"none","str":"84%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.64","height":"7.93","transform":["7.93","0.00","0.00","7.93","157.74","469.02"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light","x":157.74116516,"y":469.02163696} 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{"page":402,"change":"none","str":"PJ/yr","dir":"ltr","width":"15.84","height":"7.46","transform":["0.00","7.46","-7.46","0.00","59.96","299.09"],"fontName":"WZCNVW+YtmgdbBfbkqnHtyqlvCalibri-Bold","x":59.95877430000046,"y":299.09056394000027} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"28.08","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","351.01"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":351.01234739000023} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"(compared to","dir":"ltr","width":"37.64","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","344.18"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":344.17546384000025} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C)","dir":"ltr","width":"16.91","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","337.32"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":337.32396238000024} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"Hydrogen","dir":"ltr","width":"27.74","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","322.15"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":322.1499511500002} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"Electricity","dir":"ltr","width":"28.41","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","303.84"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":303.84346311000024} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"Synfuels","dir":"ltr","width":"24.77","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","285.54"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":285.53685301000024} {"page":402,"change":"none","str":"Biofuels","dir":"ltr","width":"23.45","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","347.89","267.23"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+KlnxskJqjttkGnnwgvArial-BoldMT","x":347.8942601400004,"y":267.23124998000026} 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Scenario, the reduction will be greatest in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","326.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":326.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"followed by the ‘Power generation’ and ‘Industry’ sectors (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","314.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":314.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"8.87","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.42","314.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.41729736,"y":314.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.92","314.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.91729736,"y":314.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"8.12.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","278.57"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":278.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"India: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"158.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","278.57"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":278.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","254.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":254.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","254.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":254.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","242.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":242.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"8.88","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.94","242.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.93829345,"y":242.57199096} 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In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","194.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":194.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"will be even lower (47,100 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conver","dir":"ltr","width":"328.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","182.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":182.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","182.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":182.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"sion losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"100.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","170.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":170.57199096} {"page":403,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios aim to rapidly phase-out coal and oil. 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Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.9998661500007,"y":623.6533309399999} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"357","dir":"ltr","width":"12.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.15","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.15029907,"y":623.65332031} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.12.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"India: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"212.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"The division of India into five sub-regions is intended to reflect the main grid zones ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"and it is assumed that interconnection will continue to increase to 15% in 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"20% in 2050. Both scenarios aim for an even distribution of variable power plant ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"capacities across all Indian sub-regions. By 2030, the variable power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"will reach 40% in most regions, whereas dispatchable renewables will supply about ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"one quarter of the demand by 2030 (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"170.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.82","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","224.13","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.12730407,"y":513.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","241.63","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":241.62730407,"y":513.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"India’s average capacity factors for the entire power plant fleet remain at around ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"35% over the entire modelling period, as the calculation results in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"289.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.83","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","342.85","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":342.84829711,"y":489.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":" show. ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.35","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.34829711,"y":489.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"Contributions from limited dispatchable fossil and nuclear power plants will remain ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"high until 2030 and indicate that a significant replacement of coal for electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"must occur after 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, coal will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"phased-out just after 2035.","dir":"ltr","width":"106.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.12.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"India: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load","dir":"ltr","width":"258.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","405.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.84","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.69","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.68830108,"y":381.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":" shows that India’s load is predicted to quadruple in all five sub-regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.19","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.18830108,"y":381.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"between 2020 and 2050. Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, additional interconnection will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"increase—beyond the assumed 20% target—but may only be required for the west","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":357.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"ern and southern sub-regions of India. However, for the 1.5 °C Scenario, intercon","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16931152,"y":345.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"nections must increase in four of the five regions. In the northern region, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"calculated generation increases faster than the demand. This region has significant ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"potential for concentrated solar power plants and could supply neighbouring ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"regions.","dir":"ltr","width":"31.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.85","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","91.31","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":91.3082962,"y":285.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":" shows the storage and dispatch requirements under the 2.0  °C and ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.81","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.8082962,"y":285.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenarios. All the regions remain within the maximum curtailment target of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"10%. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8.71","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","101.26","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.25830078,"y":261.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the calculated storage and dispatch power ","dir":"ltr","width":"269.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","118.76","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.75830078,"y":261.15979003} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"requirements by sub-region. Charging capacities are moderate compared with other ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"world regions. Compared to all other world regions, hydrogen dispatch utilization is ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"very low due to a relatively moderate increase in the gas and hydrogen capacities in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"India.","dir":"ltr","width":"23.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":406,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"358","dir":"ltr","width":"12.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.83","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","313.97"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":313.96829223} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"India: capacity factors by generation type","dir":"ltr","width":"140.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","313.97"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":313.96829223} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"Utilization of ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","299.71"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297385000009,"y":299.71280388} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"variable and ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","289.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297385000009,"y":289.71680168} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"dispatchable ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","279.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297385000009,"y":279.72079948} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"power ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","269.72"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297385000009,"y":269.72479728999997} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"generation:","dir":"ltr","width":"38.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297385000009,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","142.82","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":142.8234670100001,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.87","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.8679769000001,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2020","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","199.36","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":199.35697531000008,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.85","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.8459737200001,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","254.33","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.3349721400001,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.82","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.82398581000007,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","309.31","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.3129689600001,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","336.80","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.80198264000006,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","364.29","259.73"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.2909657900001,"y":259.72879508999995} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"India","dir":"ltr","width":"17.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","248.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297385000009,"y":248.21980766} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.87","248.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.8679769000001,"y":248.21980766} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","199.36","248.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":199.35697531000008,"y":248.21980766} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.85","248.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.8459889800001,"y":248.21980766} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","254.33","248.22"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.3349874000001,"y":248.21980766} 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{"page":407,"change":"none","str":"Capacity ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","235.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.692981480000086,"y":235.57179741} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"factor – average","dir":"ltr","width":"54.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","225.58"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.692981480000086,"y":225.57581046999996} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"[%/yr]","dir":"ltr","width":"22.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","116.44","235.57"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":116.4394719500001,"y":235.57179741} {"page":407,"change":"none","str":"60.8%","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","142.82","235.57"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":142.82348227000008,"y":235.57179741} 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8.89","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","109.25"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":109.25039672} {"page":410,"change":"none","str":"China: development of final energy demand by sector in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"237.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","109.25"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980316,"y":109.25039672} {"page":410,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":410,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"362","dir":"ltr","width":"12.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"by 2050. Compared with the 5.0 °C case (9480 TWh/year in 2050), the efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"measures in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios save around 4250 TWh/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"327.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"Electrification will lead to a significant increase in the electricity demand by ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0  °C Scenario, the electricity demand for heating will be approxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":561.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"mately 2800 TWh/year due to electric heaters and heat pumps and in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"sector, the electricity demand will be approximately 4200 TWh/year due to electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"mobility. The generation of hydrogen (for transport and high-temperature process ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"heat) and the manufacture of synthetic fuels (mainly for transport) will add an addi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":513.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"tional power demand of 3900 TWh/year. Therefore, the gross power demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"rise from 5900 TWh/year in 2015 to 13,800 TWh/year in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, 11% higher than in the 5.0 °C case. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the gross elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13531494,"y":477.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"tricity demand will increase to a maximum of 13,300 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"290.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the elec","dir":"ltr","width":"316.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12631225,"y":453.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"tricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":441.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"lent to about 24,400 PJ/year and 27,600 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"through efficiency gains by 2050 compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"266.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"8.13.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"China: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"127.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","381.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power from renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":345.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"able sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in China will come from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy sources in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—mainly wind, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 77% of the total electricity genera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":309.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"tion. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be 54% by 2030 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"84% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 2170 GW by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"2030 and 5420 GW by 2050. The share of renewable electricity generation in ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"2030 in the 1.5 °C Scenario is assumed to be 63%. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22131347,"y":261.15979003} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"eration capacity from renewable energy will be approximately 5310 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"325.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"8.86","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.48","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.478302,"y":237.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in China ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.98","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.978302,"y":237.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"71.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"8.90","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","125.64","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":125.63829803,"y":225.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-generation struc","dir":"ltr","width":"239.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.14","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.13830566,"y":225.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":225.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"ture in China. From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and PV, up to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"1670 GW and 2220 GW, respectively, will be complemented by up to 680 GW solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"thermal generation, as well as limited biomass, geothermal, and ocean energy, in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario. Both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will lead to a high proportion ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 28% and 34%, respectively, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"by 2030, and 51% and 52%, respectively, by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"202.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":411,"change":"none","str":"S. 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{"page":412,"change":"none","str":"China: development of electricity-generation structure in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"239.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","69.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.3995059799993,"y":69.15204157000024} {"page":412,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580020699993,"y":623.6533614600003} {"page":412,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6080020699993,"y":623.6533614600003} 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{"page":413,"change":"none","str":"8.91","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.23","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.228302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.73","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.728302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"113.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","167.54","559.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.53979492,"y":559.65979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated elec","dir":"ltr","width":"211.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.54","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.53979492,"y":561.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17977905,"y":561.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"tricity generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 4.7 ct/kWh. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":549.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach 9.2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":537.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"ct/kWh, and then drop to 8.8 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs will increase in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":525.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"the alternative scenarios until 2030, when they reach around 8 ct/kWh, and will then ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":513.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"drop to 6.5 ct/kWh by 2050, 2.3 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C Scenario. Note that ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":501.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"these estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":489.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"power grid expansion, storage, or other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"260.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":477.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85978698,"y":465.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"cause total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $310 billion/year to more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8597908,"y":453.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"than $1230 billion/year in 2050. 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In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":345.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"costs will be a maximum of 1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case, and this will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":333.15979003} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.70","height":"6.66","transform":["6.66","0.00","0.00","6.66","363.68","167.75"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NryvmkVkvhkgRtssdnArialMT","x":363.68121337,"y":167.75450132} 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Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"136.36","height":"8.54","transform":["8.54","0.00","0.00","8.54","75.09","105.29"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":75.08779907,"y":105.29250333000002} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"136.36","height":"8.54","transform":["8.54","0.00","0.00","8.54","248.41","91.84"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":248.41329956,"y":91.8395004} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"136.36","height":"8.54","transform":["8.54","0.00","0.00","8.54","75.09","92.04"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":75.08779907,"y":92.04149625000001} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.91","dir":"ltr","width":"31.10","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","71.65"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":71.6520004} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"China: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.70","71.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.69730377,"y":71.6520004} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"costs in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"72.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","61.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":61.65599820000001} {"page":413,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332029} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"365","dir":"ltr","width":"12.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.81","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.81369018,"y":623.65332031} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"occur in 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, compared to the 5.0 °C Scenario, the maxi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":597.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"mum difference in generation costs will be 1.6 ct/kWh in 2040. The generation costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"in 2050 will be 1.1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case. If the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"275.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","329.10","571.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.10140991,"y":571.65979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":" costs are not ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","332.10","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.10140991,"y":573.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"considered, the total electricity supply costs in the 5.0  °C case will rise to about ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":561.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"$810 billion/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"103.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":549.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"8.13.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86141967,"y":513.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"China: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"200.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","513.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.36141967,"y":513.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $9740 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":489.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":477.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments for plant replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":465.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2314148,"y":465.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"ment at the end of their economic lifetimes. This value will be equivalent to approx","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":453.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16342163,"y":453.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"imately $271 billion per year on average and will be $5680 billion more than in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":441.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C case ($4060 billion). An investment of around $9840 billion for power gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":429.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1734314,"y":429.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"eration will be required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On average, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":417.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"this will be an investment of $273 billion per year. In the 5.0 °C Scenario, the invest","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":405.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19943237,"y":405.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"ment in conventional power plants will be around 29% of the total cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":393.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"investments, whereas approximately 71% will be invested in renewable power gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":381.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2024231,"y":381.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"eration and co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"126.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":369.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"8.92","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","180.22","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":180.22142028,"y":369.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.72","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.72142028,"y":369.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, China will shift almost 97% (98%) of ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86141967,"y":357.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil fuel share ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":345.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"of the power sector investment will predominantly focus on gas power plants that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":333.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"144.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":321.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86141967,"y":309.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in both alternative scenarios will reach a total of more than $6200 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":297.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"billion in 2050, equivalent to $173 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":285.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"savings will be equivalent to 110% of the total additional investments compared to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":273.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":261.15979003} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"8.13.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.86141967,"y":225.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"China: Energy Supply for Heating","dir":"ltr","width":"146.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","225.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.36141967,"y":225.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"The final energy demand for heating will increase in the 5.0 °C Scenario by 38% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":201.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"from 42,300 PJ/year in 2015 to 58,200 PJ/year in 2050. Energy efficiency measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":189.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"will help to reduce the energy demand for heating by 42% in 2050  in the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":177.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, relative to the 5.0  °C case, and by 47% in the 1.5  °C Scenario. Today, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":165.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"renewables supply around 11% of China’s final energy demand for heating, with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":153.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"main contribution from biomass. Renewable energy will provide 32% of China’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":141.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"total heat demand in 2030 in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 46% in the 1.5 °C Scenario. In ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":129.15977478} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total heat demand in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"318.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":117.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86141967,"y":105.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"8.93","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.97","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.97142028,"y":105.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different technologies for heating in China ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","111.47","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":111.47142028,"y":105.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"over time, and Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"84.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86141967,"y":93.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"8.87","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","139.17","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.17141723,"y":93.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":" provides the resulting renewable heat supply for all sce","dir":"ltr","width":"225.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.67","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.67141723,"y":93.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15042114,"y":93.1597824} {"page":414,"change":"none","str":"narios. 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{"page":415,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"14.21","height":"6.39","transform":["6.39","0.00","0.00","6.39","153.44","149.71"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":153.43832397,"y":149.71299743} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"14.21","height":"6.39","transform":["6.39","0.00","0.00","6.39","205.24","149.71"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":205.2357483,"y":149.71299743} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"14.21","height":"6.39","transform":["6.39","0.00","0.00","6.39","257.03","149.71"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":257.0331726,"y":149.71299743} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"14.21","height":"6.39","transform":["6.39","0.00","0.00","6.39","308.84","149.71"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":308.8434143,"y":149.71299743} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"PJ/yr","dir":"ltr","width":"17.24","height":"7.05","transform":["0.00","7.05","-7.05","0.00","59.93","228.95"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":59.93030166,"y":228.95239257} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Efficiency","dir":"ltr","width":"26.52","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","284.73"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":284.73220825} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"(compared to","dir":"ltr","width":"35.55","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","278.00"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":277.99649047} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C)","dir":"ltr","width":"15.97","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","271.26"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":271.2607727} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Hydrogen","dir":"ltr","width":"26.20","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","260.04"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":260.04418945} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Electric heating","dir":"ltr","width":"41.80","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","247.30"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":247.3045044} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Geothermal heat","dir":"ltr","width":"44.29","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","234.58"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":234.57989501} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"and heat pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"43.04","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","227.84"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":227.84399414} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Solar heating","dir":"ltr","width":"35.56","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","217.85"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":217.85279846} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Biomass","dir":"ltr","width":"23.40","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","201.14"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":201.14039611} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Fossil","dir":"ltr","width":"16.22","height":"5.61","transform":["5.61","0.00","0.00","5.61","341.19","184.41"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+XrxcsgLknkfxMcknwxArial-BoldMT","x":341.19198608,"y":184.41299438} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.93","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","129.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":129.41600036} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"China: development of heat supply by energy carrier in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"233.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","129.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980316,"y":129.41600036} {"page":415,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"367","dir":"ltr","width":"12.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.97","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.97351074,"y":623.65332031} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario and to 4500 PJ/year in the 1.5 °C Scenario. The direct use of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"electricity for heating will also increase by a factor of 3.7–4 between 2015 and 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"and electricity for heating will have a final energy share of 27% in 2050 in both the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"148.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"8.13.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":295.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"China: Future Investments in the Heating Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"207.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","295.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":295.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"The roughly estimated investments in renewable heating technologies up to 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"will amount to around $2780 billion in the 2.0 °C Scenario (including investments ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":259.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"for the replacement of plants after their economic lifetimes), or approximately $77 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"billion per year. The largest share of investment in China is assumed to be for heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"pumps (around $1200 billion), followed by solar collectors and geothermal heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"use. The 1.5 °C Scenario assumes an even faster expansion of renewable technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","211.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17129516,"y":211.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"gies. However, the lower heat demand (compared with the 2.0  °C Scenario) will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"result in a lower average annual investment of around $67 billion per year ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.41377258} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"(Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.41377258} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"8.88","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.66","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.6583023,"y":175.41377258} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","99.16","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":99.1583023,"y":175.41377258} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"8.94","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","122.50","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":122.49829864,"y":175.41377258} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","140.00","175.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":139.99830627,"y":175.41377258} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"8.13.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":139.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"China: Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"74.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","139.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":139.41378784} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"The energy demand in the transport sector in China is expected to increase in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.41378021} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C Scenario by 107% from around 12,600 PJ/year in 2015 to 26,100 PJ/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":103.41378021} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"2050. 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{"page":416,"change":"none","str":"Total","dir":"ltr","width":"17.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.91","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.9138734299994,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"5.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","183.62","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.6233689699994,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"3974","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","213.18","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.1778581199994,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"3844","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","245.00","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":245.0018632299994,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"4120","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","276.83","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.8258683599994,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"4996","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.02","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.02487348999944,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"6438","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","353.22","419.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":353.2238480999994,"y":419.2868835200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","183.64","407.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.6403672599994,"y":407.45488279000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"3974","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","213.19","407.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.1948563999994,"y":407.45488279000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"7978","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","245.02","407.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":245.0188615299994,"y":407.45488279000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"11,237","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","276.84","407.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.84286664999945,"y":407.45488279000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"19,417","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.04","407.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.0418717799994,"y":407.45488279000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"24,727","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","353.24","407.45"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":353.24087691999944,"y":407.45488279000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","183.66","395.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.6573502999994,"y":395.62288206000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"3974","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","213.21","395.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":213.2118546899994,"y":395.62288206000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"9011","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","245.04","395.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":245.0358598199994,"y":395.62288206000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"12,396","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","276.86","395.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.8598649399994,"y":395.62288206000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"18,031","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","315.06","395.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.05883954999945,"y":395.62288206000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"22,237","dir":"ltr","width":"23.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","353.26","395.62"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":353.2578446799994,"y":395.62288206000017} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583924699994,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":416,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6083924699994,"y":623.6533691200002} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"368","dir":"ltr","width":"12.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in transport demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 76% (or 19,900 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"8.89","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.29","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.2862854,"y":343.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.79","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.7862854,"y":343.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"8.95","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","303.13","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":303.12631225,"y":343.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","320.63","343.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":320.62631225,"y":343.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 21% (680 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","331.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":331.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 51% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"(1170 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 1600 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","307.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":307.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand is 860 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","283.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":283.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"gen demand of 1100 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"151.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0  °C Scenario to a maximum of 1900 PJ/year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","259.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":259.41378784} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","247.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":247.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"duced, with a maximum amount of 560 PJ/year in 2050. Due to the lower overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"energy demand in transport, biofuel use will be reduced in the 1.5 °C Scenario to a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"maximum of around 1400 PJ/year. The maximum synthetic fuel demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"amount to 720 PJ/year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"8.13.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":163.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"China: Development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"116.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","163.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":163.41377258} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","212.49","161.91"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":212.48710632,"y":161.9138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":" Emissions","dir":"ltr","width":"45.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.49","163.41"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":215.48710632,"y":163.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, China’s annual CO","dir":"ltr","width":"172.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85710906,"y":139.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","226.80","137.91"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.79789733,"y":137.9138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":" emissions will increase by 25%, from ","dir":"ltr","width":"158.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","229.80","139.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":229.79789733,"y":139.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"9060 Mt. in 2015 to 11,320 Mt. in 2050. The stringent mitigation measures in both ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":127.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios will cause annual emissions to fall to 1990 Mt. in 2040 in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":115.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C Scenario and to 760 Mt. in the 1.5 °C Scenario, with further reductions to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":103.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"241.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85789871,"y":91.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","295.09","89.91"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.09240722,"y":89.9138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":" emissions from 2015 ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","298.09","91.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":298.09240722,"y":91.4138031} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"until 2050 will add up to 392 Gt. 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{"page":417,"change":"none","str":"Excluding direct electric heating","dir":"ltr","width":"110.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.19","392.24"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.18504693999944,"y":392.24385374000025} {"page":417,"change":"none","str":"S. 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The cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"primary energy consumption of natural gas in the 5.0 °C case will add up to 570 EJ, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"the cumulative coal consumption to about 3000 EJ, and the crude oil consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"to 1080 EJ.  In contrast, in the 2.0  °C Scenario, the cumulative gas demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"amount to 360 EJ, the cumulative coal demand to 1360 EJ, and the cumulative oil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"demand to 430 EJ. Even lower fossil fuel use will be achieved in the 1.5 °C Scenario: ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"440 EJ for natural gas, 930 EJ for coal, and 340 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"232.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"8.13.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","469.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":469.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"China: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"146.83","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","469.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":469.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"China has by far the largest power sector of all world regions—about one quarter of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"the world’s total electricity generation. China’s National Energy Administration ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"(NEA) released the ","dir":"ltr","width":"80.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"13th Energy Five-Year Plan (FYP)","dir":"ltr","width":"139.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","134.15","417.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+YpcctdPrqfbbFlmdnlTimesLTStd-Italic","x":134.14830017,"y":417.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":" in January 2016 (IEA RED ","dir":"ltr","width":"115.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.19","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.18829345,"y":417.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"). The FYP that is in force from 2016 to 2020 introduces framework legislation ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"that defines energy development for the next 5 years in China. In parallel to the main ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"Energy FYP, there are 14 additional supporting FYPs, such as the Renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"Energy 13th FYP, the Wind FYP, and the Electricity FYP, which were all released ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"at about the same time (GWEC-NL ","dir":"ltr","width":"141.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.38","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.38330078,"y":357.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"). According to the Renewable Energy 13th ","dir":"ltr","width":"172.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.38","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.38330078,"y":357.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"FYP, by 2020, the total RE electricity installations will reach 680 GW, with electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":345.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"ity production of 1900 TWh/year This will account for 27% of electricity produc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17929077,"y":333.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"tion. The wind power target is set to reach 210 GW by 2020, with electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"production of 420 TWh, supplying 6% of China’s total electricity demand. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"target for offshore wind is 5 GW by 2020 (GWEC-NL ","dir":"ltr","width":"222.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.44","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.43829345,"y":297.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"). For other renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"91.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","296.44","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.43829345,"y":297.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"power-generation technologies, the 2020 targets are 150 GW for solar PV, 10 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"for concentrated solar power (CSP), 15 GW for bioenergy, and 380 GW for hydro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16931152,"y":273.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"power, including 40 GW hydro pump storage (IEA-RED 2016). The renewable tar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":261.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"gets are consistent, to large extent, with both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind and solar PV capacities in both scenarios will increase to 50 GW and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"are within the current market size range. The targets for the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios for CSP, bioenergy, and offshore wind are slightly higher than current ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"market volumes. However, the first decade of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"reflect the existing trends in China’s power sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"199.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"8.13.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"China: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"200.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","153.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"China’s solar PV and wind power markets are the largest in the world and represent ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"about half the global annual market for solar PV (in 2017) and a third of the market ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"for onshore wind. The continued growth of the annual renewable power market—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"for all technologies—for the Chinese market will continue to have a significant ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"impact on other world regions. To implement the project’s 2.0 °C Scenario, the cur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":81.1597824} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"rent solar PV market in China must remain at the 2017 level, and to achieve the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":421,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"373","dir":"ltr","width":"12.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.03","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.0262146,"y":623.65332031} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenario, it must double. The onshore wind market must increase by 50% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","354.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":354.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"compared with 2015 for the 2.0 °C Scenario and must triple to meet the 1.5 °C tra","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","342.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22229003,"y":342.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"jectory. All these annual market volumes must be maintained until 2035, before a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"moderate reduction in the annual market sizes can occur (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":318.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"8.90","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.00","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":308.9953003,"y":318.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","326.50","318.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":326.4953003,"y":318.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"8.13.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":282.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"China: Utilization of Power Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"214.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","282.07"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":282.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"Across all regions, an interconnection capacity of 10% is assumed for the base year ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"calculation. The interconnection capacity will increase to 20% by 2030, with no ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"further increase thereafter. For the entire modelling period, it is assumed that Taiwan ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"is not connected to any other region. Under the 2.0 °C Scenario, variable renewables ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"will attain a share of around 30% in all sub-regions, whereas the 1.5 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","210.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":210.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"will lead to shares of over 40% in five of the seven sub-regions (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"8.91","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.34","198.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.33630371,"y":198.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.84","198.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.83630371,"y":198.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","186.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":186.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"8.92","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.98","186.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.978302,"y":186.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":" shows the results of the capacity factor calculations done under the ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","108.48","186.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":108.478302,"y":186.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"assumption that variable and dispatchable power plants will have priority access to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"the grid and priority dispatch. The average capacity factors for limited dispatchable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"power plants will remain at around 30% until 2030 under the 2.0 °C Scenario. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"relatively low factor indicates an overcapacity in China’s power market. The curtail","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","138.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14129638,"y":138.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"ment rates of 20% (REW 1-","dir":"ltr","width":"110.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","126.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":126.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","164.23","126.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.228302,"y":126.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":") and more in 2017—mainly for wind farms—con","dir":"ltr","width":"197.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","184.23","126.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.228302,"y":126.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","126.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":126.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"firm this.","dir":"ltr","width":"36.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","114.07"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":114.07330322} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.90","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"China: average annual change in installed power plant capacity","dir":"ltr","width":"214.30","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"China power generation: average annual change ","dir":"ltr","width":"165.19","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","582.41"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69308470999996,"y":582.4133730800002} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"of installed capacity [GW/a]","dir":"ltr","width":"96.54","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69308470999996,"y":572.4174014100001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2015–2025","dir":"ltr","width":"38.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.07","583.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.07257840999995,"y":583.9263735700001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2026–2035","dir":"ltr","width":"38.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.12","583.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.11858365999996,"y":583.9263735700001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2036–2050","dir":"ltr","width":"38.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","336.16","583.93"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.16457364999997,"y":583.9263735700001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","226.07","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.07257840999995,"y":572.4174014100001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","253.63","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.62958524999993,"y":572.4174014100001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.12","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.11858365999996,"y":572.4174014100001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","308.68","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":308.67559050999995,"y":572.4174014100001} {"page":422,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C","dir":"ltr","width":"21.82","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","336.16","572.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":336.16457364999997,"y":572.4174014100001} 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The [R]E 24/7 model does not ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","228.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":228.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"interface with other world regions, so surplus generation will result in a negative ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","216.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":216.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"residual load.","dir":"ltr","width":"53.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","204.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":204.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"Finally, Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"57.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","192.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":192.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"8.94","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","123.67","192.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.66829681,"y":192.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the calculated storage and dispatch ","dir":"ltr","width":"247.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","141.17","192.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.16830444,"y":192.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"power requirements in the Chinese region. The calculated hydro pump storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","180.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":180.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"increase by 2050 is consistent with the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan’s requirement for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","168.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":168.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"40 GW additional capacity. Furthermore, curtailment is within the acceptable range, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","156.81"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":156.80578613} {"page":425,"change":"none","str":"at significantly below 10% in both scenarios by 2050. 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Therefore, the gross power demand will rise ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"from 1900 TWh/year in 2015 to 3000 TWh/year in 2050  in the 2.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"25% higher than in the 5.0  °C case. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, the gross electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"demand will increase to a maximum of 3400 TWh/year in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"256.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"The efficiency gains in the heating sector could be even larger than in the elec","dir":"ltr","width":"316.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12631225,"y":513.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"tricity sector. In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, a final energy consumption equiva","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":501.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"lent to about 3000 PJ/year and 3100 PJ/year, respectively, will be avoided by 2050 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"through efficiency gains compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"241.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"8.14.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"160.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","441.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"The development of the power system is characterized by a dynamically growing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy market and an increasing proportion of total power coming from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"renewable sources. By 2050, 100% of the electricity produced in OECD Pacific will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"come from renewable energy sources in the 2.0 °C Scenario. ‘New’ renewables—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"mainly wind, solar, and geothermal energy—will contribute 82% of total electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"generation. Renewable electricity’s share of the total production will be 60% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"2030 and 89% by 2040. The installed capacity of renewables will reach about 680 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"GW by 2030 and 1420 GW by 2050. The share of renewable electricity generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"in 2030 in the 1.5 °C Scenario is assumed to be 68%. The 1.5 °C Scenario will have ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"a generation capacity from renewable energy of approximately 1590 GW in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"327.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"8.95","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.15","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.14830017,"y":297.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different renewable technologies in OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.65","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.64830017,"y":297.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"Pacific over time. Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"100.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"8.99","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","153.78","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":153.77830505,"y":285.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":" provides an overview of the overall power-generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"216.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","171.28","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.27830505,"y":285.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"structure in OECD Pacific. From 2020 onwards, the continuing growth of wind and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"PV, up to 320 GW and 830 GW, respectively, will complemented by up to 60 GW ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"solar thermal generation, as well as limited biomass, geothermal, and ocean energy, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"in the 2.0  °C Scenario. Both the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios will lead to a high ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"proportion of variable power generation (PV, wind, and ocean) of 40% and 47% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"2030, respectively, and of 68% in both scenarios by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"231.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"8.14.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Future Costs of Electricity Generation","dir":"ltr","width":"229.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","177.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"8.100","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","82.73","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":82.728302,"y":153.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the electricity-generation and supply costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"283.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","105.23","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.228302,"y":153.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"over time, including the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"121.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","175.70","139.66"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.69979858,"y":139.6598053} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":" emission costs, in all scenarios. The calculated ","dir":"ltr","width":"211.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","178.70","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":178.69979858,"y":141.1598053} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"43.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":129.1598053} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 8 ct/kWh. ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","97.18","129.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":97.17978668,"y":129.1598053} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C case, the generation costs will increase until 2030, when they reach ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":117.15979766} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"11.1 ct/kWh, and then drop to 10.9 ct/kWh by 2050. The generation costs will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":105.15979766} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"increase in the 2.0 °C Scenario until 2030, when they reach 10.5 ct/kWh, and then ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":93.15979766} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"drop to 8.3 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will increase to 10.7 ct/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":81.15979766} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"kWh, and then drop to 8.5 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":69.15979766} {"page":431,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"383","dir":"ltr","width":"12.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.93","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.93270874,"y":623.65332031} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.95","dir":"ltr","width":"39.24","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: development of renewable electricity-generation capacity in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","98.83","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":98.83180236,"y":598.1743164} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"31.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","588.18"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":588.17834472} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"in GW","dir":"ltr","width":"22.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69266172999867,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"Case","dir":"ltr","width":"16.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","124.60","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.59916349999867,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","167.11","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":167.10765501999867,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","211.89","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":211.89415403999868,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","256.68","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.68066831999863,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","301.47","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":301.46716733999864,"y":573.9189065000005} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","346.25","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.25366636999865,"y":573.9189065000005} 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{"page":432,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85805936999867,"y":623.6534035700006} {"page":432,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.60805936999867,"y":623.6534035700006} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"384","dir":"ltr","width":"12.71","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"costs in 2050 will be 2.6 ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0 °C case, and in the 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":340.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, this difference will 2.4 ct/kWh. Note that these estimates of generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":328.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"costs do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":316.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","316.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":316.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"age, or other load-balancing measures.","dir":"ltr","width":"154.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":304.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 ° C case, the growth in demand and increasing fossil fuel prices will ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","292.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":292.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"cause the total electricity supply costs to rise from today’s $160 billion/year to more ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":280.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"than $270 billion/year in 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, the total supply costs will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":268.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"$270 billion/year, and in the 1.5  °C Scenario, they will be $310 billion/year. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":256.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"long-term costs for electricity supply will be only 2% higher in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","244.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":244.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"than in the 5.0  °C Scenario as a result of the estimated generation costs and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"electrification of heating and mobility. Further electrification and synthetic fuel gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","220.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":220.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"eration in the 1.5  °C Scenario will result in total power generation costs that are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":208.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"17% higher than in the 5.0 °C case.","dir":"ltr","width":"141.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"Compared with these results, the generation costs when the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"255.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","184.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":184.64718627} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","321.44","183.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.44378662,"y":183.14720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":" emission costs ","dir":"ltr","width":"63.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","324.44","184.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.44378662,"y":184.64720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"are not considered will increase in the 5.0 °C case to 8.3 ct/kWh in 2050. 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In the 1.5 °C Scenario, they will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","148.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":148.64720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"increase to 9.9 ct/kWh, and then drop to 8.5 ct/kWh by 2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","136.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":136.64720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"the generation costs will be a maximum of 1 ct/kWh higher than in the 5.0 °C case ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","124.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":124.64720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"and this will occur in 2040. In the 1.5  °C Scenario, compared with the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","112.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":112.64720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the maximum difference in the generation costs will be 1.4 ct/kWh, again ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","100.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85379028,"y":100.64720153} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"in 2040. 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Electricity Generation Costs 5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"135.17","height":"8.47","transform":["8.47","0.00","0.00","8.47","74.92","408.78"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":74.9210968,"y":408.7796020499999} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"135.17","height":"8.47","transform":["8.47","0.00","0.00","8.47","249.56","398.11"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":249.56210327,"y":398.1126098599999} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"Spec. Electricity Generation Costs 1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"135.17","height":"8.47","transform":["8.47","0.00","0.00","8.47","74.92","395.65"],"fontName":"RZTODG+NrkwtgFsrbqmLqtvcrCalibri","x":74.9210968,"y":395.64569090999987} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.100","dir":"ltr","width":"35.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","375.48"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":375.4771118099999} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: development of total electricity supply costs and specific electricity-","dir":"ltr","width":"290.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","95.25","375.48"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.25330352,"y":375.4771118099999} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"generation costs in the scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"110.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","365.48"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":365.48110960999986} {"page":433,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.6533203099999} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"385","dir":"ltr","width":"12.56","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.88","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.87658691,"y":623.65332031} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"8.14.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Future Investments in the Power Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"234.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"An investment of around $2780 billion will be required for power generation ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"between 2015 and 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario—including additional power plants ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"for the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and investments in the replace","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":549.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"ment of plants at the end of their economic lifetimes. This value will be equivalent ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"to approximately $77 billion per year on average, and will be $1520 billion more ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"than in the 5.0 °C case ($1260 billion). An investment of around $3100 billion for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"power generation will required between 2015 and 2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario. On ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"average, this is an investment of $86 billion per year. In the 5.0  °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"investment in conventional power plants will be around 56% of the total cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"investments, whereas approximately 44% will be invested in renewable power gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1993103,"y":465.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"eration and co-generation (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"126.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"8.101","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","180.22","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":180.2183075,"y":453.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","202.72","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":202.7183075,"y":453.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"However, in the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario, OECD Pacific will shift almost 93% ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"(95%) of its entire investment to renewables and co-generation. By 2030, the fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"fuel share of the power sector investment will predominantly focused on gas power ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"plants that can also be operated with hydrogen.","dir":"ltr","width":"188.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, other than biomass, the cumulative ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"fuel cost savings in the 2.0 °C Scenario will reach a total of $1420 billion in 2050, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to $39 billion per year. Therefore, the total fuel cost savings will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"equivalent to 90% of the total additional investments compared to the 5.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"Scenario. The fuel cost savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario will add up to $1510 billion, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"or $42 billion per year.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"Fossil","dir":"ltr","width":"16.72","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","269.35","217.62"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":269.34768676,"y":217.61610412} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"31%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.10","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","271.12","208.29"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":271.12057495,"y":208.28833007} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"23.69","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","150.16","207.05"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":150.16030883,"y":207.04818725} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"24%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.10","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","155.48","197.72"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":155.4790039,"y":197.72039794} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"CHP","dir":"ltr","width":"12.65","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","144.92","263.56"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":144.9176941,"y":263.56262207} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"5%","dir":"ltr","width":"9.24","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","146.64","254.23"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":146.63734436,"y":254.23486328} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"Renewable","dir":"ltr","width":"33.82","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","239.74","299.23"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":239.7410736,"y":299.23034667} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"40%","dir":"ltr","width":"13.10","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","250.10","290.10"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":250.1045227,"y":290.10037231} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"total 1,260 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.29","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","185.32","251.91"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":185.32150268,"y":251.9143219} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"3.86","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","240.59","251.91"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":240.59327697,"y":251.9143219} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"Fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.44","height":"7.61","transform":["7.61","0.00","0.00","7.61","162.15","166.66"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+RrcrkbJfrpywWblqwnCalibri-Light","x":162.1468048,"y":166.66349792} {"page":434,"change":"none","str":"(incl. 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In ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","310.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":310.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"both scenarios, renewables will provide 100% of the total heat demand in 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"316.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","298.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":298.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","286.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":286.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"8.102","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.06","286.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.0582962,"y":286.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of different technologies for heating in ","dir":"ltr","width":"271.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","118.56","286.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.5582962,"y":286.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific over time, and Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"143.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","274.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":274.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"8.96","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","197.01","274.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":197.00830078,"y":274.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":" provides the resulting renewable heat sup","dir":"ltr","width":"167.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","214.51","274.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.50830078,"y":274.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","274.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":274.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"ply for all scenarios. 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The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","262.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":262.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"growing use of solar, geothermal, and environmental heat will lead, in the long term, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","250.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":250.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"to a biomass share of 37% in the 2.0 °C Scenario and of 35% in the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","238.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":238.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"Heat from renewable hydrogen will further reduce the dependence on fossil fuels ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","226.89"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":226.88589477} {"page":435,"change":"none","str":"in both scenarios. 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{"page":437,"change":"none","str":"Energy demand in the transport sector in OECD Pacific is expected to decrease by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":259.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"37% in the 5.0 °C Scenario, from around 6200 PJ/year in 2015 to 3900 PJ/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"2050. In the 2.0 °C Scenario, assumed technical, structural, and behavioural changes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"will save 49% (around 1900 PJ/year) by 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"Additional modal shifts, technology switches, and a reduction in the transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"demand will lead to even higher energy savings in the 1.5 °C Scenario of 59% (or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"2300 PJ/year) in 2050 compared with the 5.0 °C case (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"243.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"8.98","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","297.02","187.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":297.01629638,"y":187.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":", Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","314.52","187.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":314.51629638,"y":187.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"8.104","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","337.86","187.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.85629272,"y":187.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.36","187.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.35629272,"y":187.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"By 2030, electricity will provide 20% (200 TWh/year) of the transport sector’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","175.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":175.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"total energy demand in the 2.0 °C Scenario, whereas in 2050, the share will be 53% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"(300 TWh/year). In 2050, up to 480 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","151.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1322937,"y":151.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"port sector as a complementary renewable option. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the annual ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"electricity demand will be 240 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen demand of 360 PJ/year by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"169.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"Biofuel use is limited in the 2.0 °C Scenario and the 1.5 °C Scenario to a maxi","dir":"ltr","width":"316.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","103.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":103.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.13","103.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.12631225,"y":103.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"mum of approximately 200 PJ/year. Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"on power-to-liquid will be introduced, with a maximum amount of 270 PJ/year in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario. Due to the lower overall energy demand in transport, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","67.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":67.55679321} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"the maximum synthetic fuel demand will amount to 210  PJ/year in the 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","55.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":55.5567894} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"37.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","43.56"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":43.5567894} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.66","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","258.58","499.69"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":258.58288574,"y":499.68930053} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"37.30","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","252.76","490.95"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":252.76464843,"y":490.95101928} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"42%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","265.14","482.21"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":265.14389038,"y":482.21273803} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"geothermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"35.54","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","134.45","499.69"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":134.44833374,"y":499.68930053} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"14.86","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","144.79","490.95"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":144.78863525,"y":490.95101928} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"use","dir":"ltr","width":"10.20","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","147.11","482.21"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":147.111557,"y":482.21273803} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"8.84","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","147.79","473.47"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":147.78877258,"y":473.47445678} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"15.81","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","135.00","566.91"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":135.00175476,"y":566.9085083} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"collectors","dir":"ltr","width":"28.32","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","128.75","558.17"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":128.74661254,"y":558.17022705} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"52%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","136.64","549.43"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":136.6401825,"y":549.4319458} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"14.86","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","260.50","585.94"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":260.49801635,"y":585.9360962} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"19.94","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","257.96","577.20"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":257.95666503,"y":577.19781494} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"6%","dir":"ltr","width":"8.84","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","263.50","568.46"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":263.49816894,"y":568.4595337} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"total 132 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.44","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","183.54","539.07"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":183.53562927,"y":539.06982421} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"3.69","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","230.96","539.07"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":230.95535278,"y":539.06982421} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.66","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","178.23","440.40"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":178.2328949,"y":440.39730834} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"37.30","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","172.41","431.66"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":172.4146576,"y":431.6590271} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"16%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","184.79","422.92"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":184.79388427,"y":422.92074584} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"geothermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"35.54","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","173.29","386.09"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":173.28848266,"y":386.0888977} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"heat use","dir":"ltr","width":"25.06","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","178.53","377.35"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":178.53144836,"y":377.35061645} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"12%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","184.79","368.61"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":184.78660583,"y":368.6123352} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"15.81","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","66.99","355.38"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":66.98731231,"y":355.38113403} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"collectors","dir":"ltr","width":"28.32","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","60.18","346.78"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":60.17873001,"y":346.78118896} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"45%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","67.78","338.23"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":67.78440093,"y":338.23330688} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"14.86","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","69.97","447.40"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":69.96600341,"y":447.39730834} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"pumps","dir":"ltr","width":"19.94","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","66.80","438.80"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":66.798378,"y":438.7973938} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"27%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","70.33","430.25"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":70.33010101,"y":430.2484436} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"66.26","height":"8.44","transform":["8.44","0.00","0.00","8.44","55.26","461.82"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+QlplqjBbgwmyNsytgdArialMT","x":55.2629013,"y":461.81930541} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C: 2015-2050","dir":"ltr","width":"66.26","height":"8.44","transform":["8.44","0.00","0.00","8.44","126.13","596.74"],"fontName":"BBRWNM+QlplqjBbgwmyNsytgdArialMT","x":126.13182067,"y":596.74456787} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"total 533 billion ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.44","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","97.70","396.73"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":97.7004013,"y":396.72930908} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"$","dir":"ltr","width":"3.69","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","145.12","396.73"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":145.11947631,"y":396.72930908} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.66","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","347.48","447.32"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":347.47589111,"y":447.32330322} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"technologie","dir":"ltr","width":"34.48","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","341.04","438.72"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":341.03878784,"y":438.72338867} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"2.82","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","375.51","438.72"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":375.51083374,"y":438.72338867} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"15%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","352.96","430.17"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":352.95907592,"y":430.17443847} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"geothermal","dir":"ltr","width":"33.90","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","348.57","386.96"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":348.56814575,"y":386.96362304} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"heat us","dir":"ltr","width":"21.41","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","352.79","378.36"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":352.79290771,"y":378.36428833} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"e","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","374.24","378.36"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":374.23782348,"y":378.36428833} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"11%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","358.86","369.82"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":358.85864257,"y":369.81533813} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"15.81","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","243.19","358.22"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":243.1945343,"y":358.215271} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"collector","dir":"ltr","width":"25.50","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","236.94","349.48"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":236.93946838,"y":349.47698974} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"s","dir":"ltr","width":"2.82","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","262.45","349.48"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":262.44763183,"y":349.47698974} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"48%","dir":"ltr","width":"12.53","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","244.84","340.74"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":244.84022521,"y":340.7387085} {"page":437,"change":"none","str":"heat","dir":"ltr","width":"13.18","height":"7.28","transform":["7.28","0.00","0.00","7.28","247.36","451.30"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+BddpxjBjncqtQtnxypCalibri-Light","x":247.35972595,"y":451.29980468} 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The stringent mitigation measures ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8608017,"y":561.15979003} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"in both alternative scenarios will cause the annual emissions to fall to 280  Mt in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8608017,"y":549.15979003} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2040  in the 2.0  °C Scenario and to 160 Mt. in the 1.5  °C Scenario, with further ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8608017,"y":537.15979003} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"reductions to almost zero by 2050. 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{"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"14.69","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","114.72","195.54"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":114.71829986,"y":195.53900146} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2025","dir":"ltr","width":"14.69","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","169.27","195.54"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":169.27064514,"y":195.53900146} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"14.69","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","223.82","195.54"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":223.82298278,"y":195.53900146} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2040","dir":"ltr","width":"14.69","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","278.38","195.54"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":278.37530517,"y":195.53900146} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"14.69","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","332.93","195.54"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":332.92764282,"y":195.53900146} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"cumulated emissions [Gt]","dir":"ltr","width":"101.36","height":"8.29","transform":["0.00","-8.29","8.29","0.00","378.40","339.81"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":378.39950561,"y":339.81118774} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"12.44","height":"8.29","transform":["0.00","8.29","-8.29","0.00","60.95","255.02"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":60.9482994,"y":255.01800537} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2 ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.60","height":"5.51","transform":["0.00","5.51","-5.51","0.00","63.95","267.46"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":63.9482994,"y":267.45550537} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"emissions [Mt/yr]","dir":"ltr","width":"68.19","height":"8.29","transform":["0.00","8.29","-8.29","0.00","60.95","272.05"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":60.9482994,"y":272.05160522} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"'Power generation'","dir":"ltr","width":"58.55","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","149.67","181.64"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":149.66700744,"y":181.6369934} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"'Other Conversion'","dir":"ltr","width":"58.92","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","281.59","181.64"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":281.58950805,"y":181.6369934} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"'Transport'","dir":"ltr","width":"33.96","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","149.67","174.87"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":149.66700744,"y":174.86799621} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"'Industry'","dir":"ltr","width":"29.19","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","281.59","174.87"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":281.58950805,"y":174.86799621} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"'Residential & other sectors'","dir":"ltr","width":"88.65","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","149.67","168.08"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":149.66700744,"y":168.082901} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"Savings","dir":"ltr","width":"25.32","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","281.59","168.08"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":281.58950805,"y":168.082901} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"5.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.59","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","149.67","161.30"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":149.66700744,"y":161.29699707} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2.0°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.59","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","281.59","161.30"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":281.58950805,"y":161.29699707} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C","dir":"ltr","width":"16.59","height":"6.60","transform":["6.60","0.00","0.00","6.60","149.67","154.53"],"fontName":"MCEFLQ+LcbghpMvhqgtLjqmvgArial-BoldMT","x":149.66700744,"y":154.52799987} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 8.105","dir":"ltr","width":"35.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","134.15"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83449935,"y":134.1519928} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: development of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"122.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","95.35","134.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.34850311,"y":134.1519928} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","217.71","132.88"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.7131958,"y":132.8769989} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":" emissions by sector and cumulative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"140.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","220.26","134.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.26319885,"y":134.1519928} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","361.20","132.88"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.2020874,"y":132.8769989} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":" emis","dir":"ltr","width":"18.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","363.75","134.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":363.75210571,"y":134.1519928} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","382.66","134.15"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.65609741,"y":134.1519928} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"sions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C Scenario)","dir":"ltr","width":"317.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","124.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.83361816,"y":124.1559906} {"page":439,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"391","dir":"ltr","width":"11.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.26","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.26419067,"y":623.65332031} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"8.14.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Primary Energy Consumption","dir":"ltr","width":"195.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","573.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.228302,"y":573.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"252.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"8.106","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.27","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.26828002,"y":561.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":". In the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","328.77","561.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.76828002,"y":561.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, the primary energy demand will decrease by 48%, from around 36,300 PJ/","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"year in 2015 to 18,900  PJ/year in 2050. Compared with the 5.0  °C Scenario, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"overall primary energy demand will decrease by 45% by 2050 in the 2.0 °C Scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"(5.0 °C: 34,700 PJ in 2050). In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the primary energy demand will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"be even lower (19,900 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conversion ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"losses will be lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"Both the 2.0 °C Scenario and 1.5 °C Scenario aim to rapidly phase-out coal and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":440,"change":"none","str":"oil. 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Scenario: 150 EJ for natural gas, 70 EJ ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"for coal, and 190 EJ for oil.","dir":"ltr","width":"109.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"8.14.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","541.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":541.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"186.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","541.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":541.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand form the OECD Pacific region ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"(also referred to as OECD Asia Pacific or OECD Asia Oceania). Like Non-OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"Asia, a regional interconnected power market with regular electricity exchange is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"unlikely. Therefore, the region is broken down into seven sub-regions: (1) South ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"Korea; (2) the north of Japan; (3) the south of Japan; (4) Australia’s National ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"Electricity Market (NEM) (covering the entire east coast); (5) the SWIS-NT grid ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"region (comprising Western Australia and the Northern Territory); (6) the North ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"Island of New Zealand; and (7) the South Island of New Zealand. The sub-regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"have very different electricity policies, power-generation structures, and demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"patterns. In this analysis, simplifications that may not reflect the local conditions are ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"made to ensure that the results comparable on a global level. Therefore, the results ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"for specific countries are only estimates.","dir":"ltr","width":"161.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"8.14.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Development of Power Plant Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"233.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","345.16"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"The region has significant potential for all renewables, including the dominant ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"renewable power technologies of solar PV and onshore wind. Japan has significant ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"geothermal power resources, and offshore wind potentials are substantial across the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"region. There is also potential for ocean energy across the region, although it is cur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","285.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":285.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"rently a niche technology. Australia has one of the best solar resources in the world, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"so concentrated solar power plants will be an important part of both scenarios in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"Australia. Coal and nuclear capacities will be phased-out as plants come to the end ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"of their lifetimes. In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the last coal power plant will be phased out ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"just after 2030.","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"The solar PV market will reach 8 GW in 2020 under the 2.0 °C Scenario—the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"same level as the actual regional market of 8.3 GW (REN21-GSR ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.38","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.3782959,"y":201.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":") in 2017—","dir":"ltr","width":"46.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.38","201.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.3782959,"y":201.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"and increase rapidly to 43 GW by 2030. The 1.5 °C Scenario requires that solar PV ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"will achieve an equal market size by 2030 and remain at this level until 2040.","dir":"ltr","width":"308.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"However, the onshore market must increase significantly compared with the mar","dir":"ltr","width":"316.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","165.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":165.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"ket in 2017, which was only 0.54 GW (GWEC-NL ","dir":"ltr","width":"217.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":153.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","271.63","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":271.6282959,"y":153.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"). By 2025, 12  GW of ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","291.63","153.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":291.6282959,"y":153.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind capacity must be installed annually across the region under the 2.0 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":141.15977478} {"page":441,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+QfjrndXmhtckNhxprrTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65332031} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"393","dir":"ltr","width":"12.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.91","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.90890502,"y":623.65332031} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, and 17 GW under the 1.5 °C Scenario. By 2030, geothermal, concentrated ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"solar power, and ocean energy must increase by around 2 GW each (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"298.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"8.99","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.69","325.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.68530273,"y":325.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.19","325.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.18530273,"y":325.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"8.14.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.19"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":289.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Utilization of Power Generation Capacities","dir":"ltr","width":"248.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","289.19"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":289.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"The very different developments of variable and dispatch power plants in all sub-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","265.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":265.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"regions reflect the diversity the Pacific region. Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","253.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":253.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"8.100","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.40","253.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.39828491,"y":253.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":" shows that because there ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.90","253.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.89828491,"y":253.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"is no interconnection between the northern and southern parts of Japan, we assume ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","241.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":241.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"that even within Japan, the separate electricity markets of the 50  Hz and 60  Hz ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","229.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":229.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"regions will remain as they are. For Australia, it is assumed that the east- and west-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","217.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":217.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"coast electricity markets will have limited interconnection capacities by 2030. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"North and South Islands of New Zealand are calculated to have an increased inter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","193.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":193.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"connection capacity by 2050.","dir":"ltr","width":"117.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","169.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":169.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"8.101","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.23","169.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.228302,"y":169.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":" shows that for the region as a whole, the limited dispatchable power ","dir":"ltr","width":"275.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","112.73","169.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":112.728302,"y":169.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"plants will retain a relatively high capacity factor, compared with other regions, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.19"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.18969726} {"page":442,"change":"none","str":"until after 2020 and decrease thereafter. 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{"page":444,"change":"none","str":"4%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.33","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","134.85","225.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.8503235500001,"y":225.09727090999985} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"34%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","134.85","267.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.8503235500001,"y":267.74178689999985} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"61%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","134.85","312.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.8503235500001,"y":312.29027933999987} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"2030","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","202.43"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":202.42777628999988} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"40%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","225.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":225.09727090999985} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"31%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","267.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":267.74178689999985} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"30%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","312.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":312.29027933999987} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"45%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","418.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":418.31927102999987} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"29%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","459.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":459.0767783599999} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"27%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","146.68","503.63"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.6823242800001,"y":503.6252707899999} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","202.43"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":202.42776101999988} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"71%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","225.10"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":225.09727090999985} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"26%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","267.74"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":267.74175638999986} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"2%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.33","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","312.29"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":312.29027933999987} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"64%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","418.32"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":418.31927102999987} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"22%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","459.08"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":459.0767783599999} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"14%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","158.51","503.63"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":158.5143250100001,"y":503.6252707899999} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583267800001,"y":623.6534079999999} {"page":444,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario Results","dir":"ltr","width":"84.79","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","66.61","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.6083267800001,"y":623.6534079999999} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"396","dir":"ltr","width":"12.54","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"8.14.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":342.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: Development of Load, Generation, ","dir":"ltr","width":"215.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","342.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":342.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"and Residual Load","dir":"ltr","width":"80.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","330.42"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":330.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"8.102","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.01","306.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.00830078,"y":306.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":" shows the development of the maximum load, generation, and resulting ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.51","306.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.50830078,"y":306.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"residual load in the Pacific region. To verify the calculation results, we compared ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"the peak demands in Australia and Japan.","dir":"ltr","width":"165.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"The peak load for Australia’s NEM was calculated to be 32.6 GW in 2020, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","270.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":270.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"corresponds to the reported summer peak of 32.5 GW in the summer of 2017/2018 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"(AER ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","246.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":246.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.51","246.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.50830078,"y":246.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"). Japan’s peak demand was 152  GW in 2015 according to the Tokyo ","dir":"ltr","width":"288.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.51","246.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.50830078,"y":246.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"Electric Power Company (TEPCO -","dir":"ltr","width":"152.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.13","234.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.1282959,"y":234.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":") and TEPCO predicts that it will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"164.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.13","234.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.1282959,"y":234.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"136 GW in 2020, which is 11% lower.","dir":"ltr","width":"153.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"In the long term, the Pacific region will be a renewable fuel producer for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","210.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":210.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"export market. Therefore, the calculated increased interconnection capacities indi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","198.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17028808,"y":198.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"cate overproduction, which will be used for international bunker fuels.","dir":"ltr","width":"281.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","186.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":186.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"The storage and dispatch requirements for all sub-regions are shown in ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","174.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":174.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"8.103","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","78.13","162.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.12830352,"y":162.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":". The Pacific region has vast solar and wind resources and will therefore ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.63","162.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.62830352,"y":162.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"be one of the production hubs for synthetic fuels and hydrogen, which may be used ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"for industrial processes, for bunker fuels, or to replace natural gas. Therefore, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.42318725} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"storage and dispatch demand may vary significantly because they depend on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","126.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":126.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"extent to which renewable fuel production is integrated into the national power sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","114.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":114.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","114.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":114.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"tors or used for dispatch and demand-side management. The more integrated the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","102.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":102.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"fuel production is, the lower the overall requirement for battery or hydro pump stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","90.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":90.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","90.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":90.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"age technologies. Further research is required to develop a dedicated plan to pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","78.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":78.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","78.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":78.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"duce renewable bunker fuels in Australia.","dir":"ltr","width":"165.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","66.42"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":66.42317962} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"Table 8.101","dir":"ltr","width":"41.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific: capacity factors by generation type","dir":"ltr","width":"171.64","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","100.85","598.17"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.84629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"Utilization of ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","583.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297767000027,"y":583.9188414} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"variable and ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","573.92"],"fontName":"WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69297767000027,"y":573.9228086800001} {"page":445,"change":"none","str":"dispatchable 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"DMDTRI+KqkkstLysphsCrbjhkTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_9","dir":"ltr","width":"155.21","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 9","dir":"ltr","width":"60.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Trajectories for a Just Transition ","dir":"ltr","width":"228.45","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"of the Fossil Fuel Industry","dir":"ltr","width":"179.17","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","558.03"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":558.02770996} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske","dir":"ltr","width":"46.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","522.03"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":522.02770996} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"This section provides historical production data for coal, oil and gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.89","465.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.88829706999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"between 1980 and 2015. The 2.0","dir":"ltr","width":"131.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":" °C","dir":"ltr","width":"13.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","185.59","453.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":185.58729456999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":" and 1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"32.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","198.98","453.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":198.97529505999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":" °C","dir":"ltr","width":"13.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","231.36","453.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":231.35529993999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":" scenario lead to specific phase-out ","dir":"ltr","width":"143.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","244.74","453.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":244.74429224999997,"y":453.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"pathways for each of the fossil fuel types. Current regional production volumes are ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"compared with future demands. The results provide the input for the employment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"analysis in the following chapter for the fossil fuel sector. This section discusses the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"need to shift the current political debate about coal, oil and gas which is focused on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"security of supply and price security towards an open debate about an orderly with","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","393.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829370999995,"y":393.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"drawal from coal, oil and gas extraction industries.","dir":"ltr","width":"202.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":381.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"The implementation of the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C climate mitigation pathways presented ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":345.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"here will have a significant impact on the global fossil fuel industry. Although this ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":333.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"may appear to be stating the obvious, current climate debates have not yet involved ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":321.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"open discussion of the orderly withdrawal from the coal, oil, and gas extraction ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":309.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"industries. Instead, the political debate about coal, oil, and gas has focused on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":297.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"security of supply and price security. However, mitigating climate change is only ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":285.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"possible when fossil fuels are phased-out. This section provides an overview of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":273.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"time-frame of this phase-out under the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios compared with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":261.13769531} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"the 5.0 °C pathway.","dir":"ltr","width":"78.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":249.13771057} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"9.1","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","205.14"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":205.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Fossil Energy Resources—The Sky Is the Limit","dir":"ltr","width":"241.19","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","205.14"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829828999998,"y":205.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"An unrelenting increase in fossil fuel extraction conflicts with the finite nature of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":177.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"these resources. At the same time, the global distribution of oil and gas resources ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":165.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"does not match the distribution of demand. Therefore, some countries currently rely ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":153.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"almost entirely on imported fossil fuels. Therefore, is the relative scarcity of fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":141.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"fuels an additional reason an energy transition? The Global Energy Assessment ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.14"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":129.14169311} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske (","dir":"ltr","width":"33.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","100.82"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":100.82099914} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","87.25","100.82"],"fontName":"RPZZFG+SjsmmqMmlxyxBqdptjWingdings-Regular","x":87.25450037999998,"y":100.82099914} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","95.75","100.82"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.74690149999998,"y":100.82099914} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","90.82"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":90.82499694} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","80.83"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85889719999998,"y":80.82900238} {"page":451,"change":"none","str":" sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","80.83"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93939874999998,"y":80.82900238} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"404","dir":"ltr","width":"13.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"(GEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","485.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":485.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.13","485.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.12830352,"y":485.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"), an integrated assessment of the global energy system, has published a ","dir":"ltr","width":"287.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.13","485.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.12830352,"y":485.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"comprehensive overview of estimated available fossil fuel reserves and resources. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","473.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":473.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","461.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":461.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"9.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.89","461.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.88829803,"y":461.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":" shows the estimates for conventional and unconventional coal, oil, and gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"297.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.39","461.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.38829803,"y":461.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"reserves and resources. The distinction between reserves and resources is based on ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":449.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"the current technology (exploration and production) and market conditions. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":437.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"resource data are not cumulative and do not include reserves (GEA 2012).","dir":"ltr","width":"296.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","425.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":425.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"The assessment shows that there is no shortage of fossil fuels. There might be a ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","413.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":413.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"shortage of conventional oil and gas, but unconventional resources are still signifi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","401.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":401.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","401.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":401.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"cantly larger than our climate can cope with. Reducing global fossil fuel consump","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","389.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":389.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","389.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":389.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"tion for reasons of resource scarcity alone is not essential, even though there may be ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","377.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":377.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"substantial price fluctuations and regional or structural shortages, as we have seen ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","365.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":365.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"in the past (Teske and Pregger ","dir":"ltr","width":"122.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","353.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":353.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","176.77","353.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.76730346,"y":353.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","196.77","353.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":196.76730346,"y":353.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"9.2","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","309.76"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":309.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Coal—Past Production and Future Trajectories ","dir":"ltr","width":"245.84","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","309.76"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":309.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Under Three Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"118.44","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","295.76"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":295.75979614} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Global coal production is dominated by China, which in 2017, produced over 3.5 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":267.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"billion tonnes of coal, 45% of the world volume, followed by India with 716 million ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":255.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"tonnes, the USA with 702 million tons, and Australia with 481 million tons. The top ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"10 producers, in order of annual production, are China, India, USA, Australia, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":231.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Indonesia, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Germany (mainly lignite), Poland, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"and Kazakhstan. These countries account for 90% of the global coal production.","dir":"ltr","width":"320.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","195.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":195.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"9.1","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.90","195.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.89830017,"y":195.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":" shows the historical time series for global coal production. The data ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.40","195.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.39830017,"y":195.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"are based on the BP Statistical Review 2018 (BP ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","253.64","183.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":253.63729858,"y":183.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"), as are the following over","dir":"ltr","width":"108.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.64","183.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.63729858,"y":183.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","183.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":183.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"views of oil and gas. Production volumes have declined in recent years, mainly due ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"to changes in demand in China, but they rose again in 2017.","dir":"ltr","width":"239.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Under the 5.0  °C scenario, the required production of thermal coal (excluding ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","147.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":147.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"coal for non-energy uses, such as steel production) will remain at the 2015 level, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","135.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":135.76379394} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"with an annual increase of around 1% per year until 2050. As shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"316.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","123.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":123.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"9.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.51","123.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.50830078,"y":123.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.01","123.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.00830078,"y":123.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"under the 2.0 °C Scenario, coal production will decline sharply between 2020 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":111.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"2030 at a rate of around 6% per year. By 2030, the global coal production will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","99.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":99.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"equal to China’s annual production in 2017, at 3.7 billion tons, whereas that volume ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":87.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"will be reached in 2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"202.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","75.76"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":75.76378631} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Table 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{"page":452,"change":"none","str":"[EJ/year]","dir":"ltr","width":"31.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","149.08","573.92"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.0794067,"y":573.9188318599997} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Resources","dir":"ltr","width":"34.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","225.00","583.91"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.00140377000002,"y":583.9148035399996} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"[EJ/year]","dir":"ltr","width":"31.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","225.00","573.92"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.00140377000002,"y":573.9188318599997} {"page":452,"change":"none","str":"Demand in 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Unlike coal, there is no ","dir":"ltr","width":"103.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.29","529.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.28829956,"y":529.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"sign of a decline in oil production in response to reduced demand. Oil production is ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","517.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":517.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"more widely distributed than coal production. Three countries, the USA, Russia, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","505.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":505.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"and Saudi Arabia, have global market shares of around 12–14% each, whereas four ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","493.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":493.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"countries, Canada, Iran, Iraq, and China, produce around 5% each. The other oil-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","481.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":481.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"producing countries have significantly lower market shares.","dir":"ltr","width":"237.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","469.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":469.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","457.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":457.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"9.4","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.15","457.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.14830017,"y":457.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":" shows the global oil production levels required by the three calculated ","dir":"ltr","width":"281.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","106.65","457.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":106.64830017,"y":457.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"scenarios. Oil for non-energy uses, such as the petrochemical industry, is not ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","445.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":445.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"included in this graph. Again, oil production in the 5.0  °C Scenario will grow ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","433.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":433.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"steadily by 1% until the end of the modelling period in 2050. Under the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","421.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":421.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"Scenario, oil production will decline by 5% per year until 2030 and by 3% annually ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","409.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":409.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"until 2025. After 2030, production will decline by around 7% per year, on average, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","397.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":397.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"until oil production for energy is phased-out entirely. The oil production capacity of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","385.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":385.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"the USA, Saudi Arabia, and Russia in 2017 would be sufficient to supply the global ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","373.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":373.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"demand calculated for the 2.0 °C Scenario in 2035. The 1.5 °C Scenario will cut the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","361.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":361.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"required production volumes in half by 2030, reducing them further to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"290.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":349.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"equivalent ","dir":"ltr","width":"43.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.35","349.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.34829711,"y":349.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"of the production volume of just one of the three largest oil producers (the USA, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"Saudi Arabia, or Russia) by 2040.","dir":"ltr","width":"135.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.79"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.79382324} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.51","height":"6.93","transform":["6.93","0.00","0.00","6.93","71.78","125.41"],"fontName":"PMANDK+YtvkvwVmkkdrWvstlqCalibri","x":71.77680206,"y":125.40750122} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"10,00","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"6.93","transform":["6.93","0.00","0.00","6.93","57.32","142.51"],"fontName":"PMANDK+YtvkvwVmkkdrWvstlqCalibri","x":57.32395172,"y":142.50849914} 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{"page":454,"change":"none","str":"Eurasi","dir":"ltr","width":"14.62","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","257.76","96.24"],"fontName":"PMANDK+YtvkvwVmkkdrWvstlqCalibri","x":257.76119995,"y":96.2444992} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"aM","dir":"ltr","width":"91.11","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","272.38","96.24"],"fontName":"PMANDK+YtvkvwVmkkdrWvstlqCalibri","x":272.37634277,"y":96.2444992} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"iddle East","dir":"ltr","width":"23.31","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","321.89","96.24"],"fontName":"PMANDK+YtvkvwVmkkdrWvstlqCalibri","x":321.893219,"y":96.2444992} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"OECD Pacific","dir":"ltr","width":"30.46","height":"5.94","transform":["5.94","0.00","0.00","5.94","316.77","84.53"],"fontName":"PMANDK+YtvkvwVmkkdrWvstlqCalibri","x":316.77328491,"y":84.53040313} {"page":454,"change":"none","str":"Latin 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Teske","dir":"ltr","width":"28.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","356.87","623.65"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+JpxbjjYkwtkkHrjlctTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.87231445,"y":623.65319824} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"407","dir":"ltr","width":"13.10","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.51","623.65"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.50601196,"y":623.65332031} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"9.4","dir":"ltr","width":"15.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","391.16"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":391.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"Gas—Past Production and Future Trajectories ","dir":"ltr","width":"241.85","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","391.16"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":391.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"Under the Three Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"137.43","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","80.86","377.15"],"fontName":"YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":80.85829925,"y":377.15429687} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"Gas production has grown steadily over the past four decades, leading to an overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":349.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"production of 3500 billion cubic meters—3.5 times higher than in 1970. The pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","337.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":337.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"duction of natural gas is even more widely distributed than oil production. According ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"to 2017 figures, by far the largest producers are the USA, with 20% of the global ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","313.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":313.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"volume, and Russia with 17%. Four countries have market share of around 5% each: ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","301.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":301.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"Canada (4.8%), Iran (6.1%), Qatar (4.8%), and China (4.1%). The remaining 43% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":289.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"of global gas production is distributed over 42 countries (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"247.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","277.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":277.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"9.5","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","301.35","277.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":301.34729003,"y":277.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","313.85","277.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":313.84729003,"y":277.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, gas production will increase steadily by 2% a year for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","265.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":265.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"next two decades, leading to an overall production increase of about 50% by 2050. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","253.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":253.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"Compared with coal and oil, the gas phase-out will be significantly slower in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","241.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":241.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios. Furthermore, these scenarios assume that infrastruc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","229.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":229.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","229.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14630126,"y":229.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"ture, such as gas pipelines and power plants, will be used after this phase-out for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","217.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":217.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"hydrogen and/or renewable methane produced with electricity from renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"sources (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"76.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","130.22","193.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":130.2183075,"y":193.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":", Sect ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","135.22","193.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.2183075,"y":193.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","159.38","193.16"],"fontName":"LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","x":159.3782959,"y":193.15829467} {"page":455,"change":"none","str":"). 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One of the key concerns is the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":295.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"employment of workers in the affected industries (UNFCCC ","dir":"ltr","width":"258.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":283.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.88","283.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.87829494,"y":283.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"; ILO ","dir":"ltr","width":"27.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.88","283.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.87829494,"y":283.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.72","283.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.71829126999995,"y":283.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.72","283.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.71829126999995,"y":283.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"However, it should be noted that the ‘just transition’ concept is concerned not only ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":271.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"with workers’ rights, but also with the well-being of the broader community (Smith ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":259.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":247.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"; Jenkins et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"58.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","247.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829828999998,"y":247.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","132.02","247.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.01530359999998,"y":247.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"; Sovacool and Dworkin ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","152.02","247.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.01530359999998,"y":247.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","249.95","247.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":249.94529627999998,"y":247.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"). This includes, for example, ","dir":"ltr","width":"117.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.95","247.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.94531154,"y":247.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"community participation in decision-making processes, public dialogue, and policy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":235.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"mechanisms to create an enabling environment for new industries, to ensure local ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":223.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"economic development.","dir":"ltr","width":"95.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":211.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"Although it is acknowledged that a just transition is important, there are limited ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","199.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829828999998,"y":199.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"data on the impacts that the transition will have on employment. There is even less ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":187.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"information on the types of occupations that will be affected by the transition, either ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":175.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"by project growth or a decline in employment. This study provides projections for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":163.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"jobs in construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance (O&M), and fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":151.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"and heat supply across 12 technologies and 10 world regions, based on the energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.14"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":139.14169311} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"E. Dominish (","dir":"ltr","width":"47.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","110.82"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":110.82099914} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","101.79","110.82"],"fontName":"RWIFWG+YfcvnqRwyyjsGxpxwgWingdings-Regular","x":101.78939723999997,"y":110.82099914} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":") · C. Briggs · S. Teske · F. Mey","dir":"ltr","width":"106.74","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","110.28","110.82"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.28179834999997,"y":110.82099914} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","100.82"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":100.82499694} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":" elsa.dominish@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"91.41","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93929956999997,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","169.35","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":169.34829614999998,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":" chris.briggs@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"84.32","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.71","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.71130275,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","256.03","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":256.03131006999996,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":" sven.teske@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.38","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","258.39","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.39428613999996,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","337.78","90.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.77578638999995,"y":90.82900238} {"page":460,"change":"none","str":"franziska.mey@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"90.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","80.83"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":80.83300018} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"414","dir":"ltr","width":"11.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"scenario from the Leonardo Di Caprio project (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"231.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.95","597.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.94830322,"y":597.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":" ff. This study is funded ","dir":"ltr","width":"98.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","289.93","597.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":289.9283142,"y":597.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"by the German Greenpeace Foundation and builds on the methodology developed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"by UTS/ISF (Rutovitz et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"116.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"19.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","169.94","573.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":169.93530273,"y":573.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"), with an updated framework that disaggregates ","dir":"ltr","width":"198.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","189.86","573.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.8553009,"y":573.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"jobs by specific occupations. Projected employment is calculated regionally, but in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"this chapter, we present an overview of the global data, which are an aggregate of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"results for the 10 world regions. Further details, including a further regional break","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","537.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21130371,"y":537.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"down of employment data, are provided in the full report (Dominish et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.34","525.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.3373108,"y":525.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.26","525.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.2572937,"y":525.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"10.2","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","481.16"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85820007,"y":481.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"Quantitative Employment Modelling","dir":"ltr","width":"188.44","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","481.16"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85820007,"y":481.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"This section discusses the calculation factors used for the quantitative employment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":453.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"modelling (an overview of the methodology is given in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"249.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":441.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"3.6","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","302.97","441.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.96820068,"y":441.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":" of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.47","441.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.46820068,"y":441.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","356.35","441.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.34820556,"y":441.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"). The ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","361.35","441.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.34820556,"y":441.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"factors were analysed on a regional basis where possible, to take into account the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":429.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"significant economic differences between world regions. The results are then pre","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":417.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","417.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1961975,"y":417.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"sented in the following section.","dir":"ltr","width":"125.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":405.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"10.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","361.16"],"fontName":"QSTZII+XlgggcHybllmQqyfvfTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85820007,"y":361.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"Employment Factors","dir":"ltr","width":"102.42","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","361.16"],"fontName":"QSTZII+XlgggcHybllmQqyfvfTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85820007,"y":361.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"Employment factors were used to calculate the number of jobs required per unit of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":333.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"electrical or heating capacity, or per unit of fuel. The employment factors differ ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":321.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"depending on whether they involve manufacturing, construction, operation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":309.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"maintenance, or fuel supply. Information about these factors usually comes from ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":297.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"OECD countries because that is where most data are collected, although local data ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":285.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"were used wherever possible. For job calculations in non-OECD regions, regional ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":273.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"adjustments were made when a local factor was not available (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"283.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":261.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"10.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"25.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","337.11","261.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.10818481,"y":261.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"). The ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.11","261.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.10818481,"y":261.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"employment factors used in the calculations are shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"255.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":249.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"10.1","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","309.61","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":309.60620117,"y":249.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.11","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.10620117,"y":249.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"The employment factors were based on coal supplies, because employment per ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85820007,"y":237.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"tonne varies significantly across the world regions and because coal plays a signifi-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":225.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"cant role in energy production in many countries. In Australia and the USA, coal is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":213.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"extracted at an average rate of more than 9000 tonnes per person per year, whereas ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":201.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"in Europe, the average coal miner is responsible for less than 1000 tonnes per year. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":189.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"China has relatively low per capita productivity at present, with 650  tonnes per ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":177.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"worker per year, but the annual increases in productivity are very high. India and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":165.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"Eurasia have significantly increased their productivity since a similar analysis was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":153.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"performed in 2015. Local data were also used for gas extraction in every region ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":141.15979003} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"except India, the Middle East, and Non-OECD-Asia. The calculation of coal and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":129.15977478} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"gas employment per petajoule (PJ) drew on data from national statistics and com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":117.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","117.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14819335,"y":117.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"pany reports, combined with production figures from the BP Statistical Review of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":105.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"World Energy 2018 (BP-SR 2018) or other sources. Data were collected for as ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":93.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"many major coal-producing countries as possible, and coverage was obtained for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":81.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"90% of the world coal production (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"164.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":69.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"10.2","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.76","69.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.75720214,"y":69.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","236.26","69.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":236.25720214,"y":69.1597824} {"page":461,"change":"none","str":"E. Dominish et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.71","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+YpyhmmDgdyhcVpsmggTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.70669555,"y":623.65319824} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"415","dir":"ltr","width":"11.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.44","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.43930053,"y":623.65332031} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Table 10.1","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85630035,"y":598.17034912} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Summary of employment factors used in a global analysis in 2012","dir":"ltr","width":"225.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.59","598.17"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59429931,"y":598.17034912} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Construction/installation","dir":"ltr","width":"84.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","126.96","563.92"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.96440096000008,"y":563.9188596000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Manufacturing","dir":"ltr","width":"50.43","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","218.88","563.92"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.88339968000008,"y":563.9188596000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Operations & ","dir":"ltr","width":"48.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","275.26","573.91"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.2638928400001,"y":573.91483128} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"maintenance","dir":"ltr","width":"42.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","275.26","563.92"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.2638928400001,"y":563.9188596000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Fuel – ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.61","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.36","583.92"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.36389894000007,"y":583.91934788} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"PRIMARY ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.30","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.36","573.92"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.36389894000007,"y":573.9233762000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"energy demand","dir":"ltr","width":"52.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.36","563.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.36389894000007,"y":563.9273434800001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Job years/ MW","dir":"ltr","width":"51.94","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","126.97","551.28"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.97290773000009,"y":551.2793332300001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Job years/ ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.35","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","218.89","551.28"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.8919140800001,"y":551.2793332300001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"MW","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","218.89","541.28"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.8919140800001,"y":541.2833615600001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Jobs/MW","dir":"ltr","width":"33.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","275.27","551.28"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.27240724000006,"y":551.2793332300001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Coal","dir":"ltr","width":"16.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.70","529.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.703399370000085,"y":529.4428464100001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"11.4","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","126.97","529.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.97290010000009,"y":529.4428464100001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","218.89","529.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.8918988200001,"y":529.4428464100001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"0.14","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","275.27","529.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.27240724000006,"y":529.4428464100001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Regional","dir":"ltr","width":"30.57","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.37","529.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.37241335000004,"y":529.4428464100001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Gas","dir":"ltr","width":"13.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.71","517.61"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.711898520000084,"y":517.6108762000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","126.98","517.61"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.98139925000008,"y":517.6108762000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"2.9","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","218.90","517.61"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.90041323000008,"y":517.6108762000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"0.14","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","275.28","517.61"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.28089113000004,"y":517.6108762000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Regional","dir":"ltr","width":"30.57","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.38","517.61"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.3808972300001,"y":517.6108762000001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Nuclear","dir":"ltr","width":"26.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.72","505.78"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.720409110000084,"y":505.7788449600001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"11.8","dir":"ltr","width":"14.88","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","126.99","505.78"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.98990602000008,"y":505.7788449600001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","218.91","505.78"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.9089123700001,"y":505.7788449600001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"0.6","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","275.29","505.78"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.2894055400001,"y":505.7788449600001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"0.001 jobs per ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.39","505.78"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.38941164000005,"y":505.7788449600001} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"GWh final ","dir":"ltr","width":"37.77","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","331.39","495.78"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.38941164000005,"y":495.7828427600001} 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{"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Used world average because no employment data were available","dir":"ltr","width":"219.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","149.42","97.52"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.42333192000012,"y":97.52303526} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"8.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.88","623.69"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.88333481000012,"y":623.6900350799999} {"page":462,"change":"none","str":"Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"262.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.54","623.69"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.54333466000011,"y":623.6900350799999} 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The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"same applies to coal and gas, because they are traded internationally, so the jobs in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"fuel supply were calculated regionally, based on historical data.","dir":"ltr","width":"253.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"10.2.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"Learning Adjustments or ‘Decline Factors’","dir":"ltr","width":"182.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","453.16"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"Learning adjustments are used to account for the projected reductions in the costs of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"renewables over time, as technologies and companies become more efficient and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"production processes are scaled up. Generally, jobs per MW are projected to fall in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"parallel with this trend. The cost projections for each of the calculated energy sce","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","393.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18630981,"y":393.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"nario regions (see Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"95.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"5.3","dir":"ltr","width":"12.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","149.52","381.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.51829528,"y":381.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":" of Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.02","381.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.01829528,"y":381.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"5","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","201.46","381.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":201.45829772,"y":381.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":") were used to derive these factors.","dir":"ltr","width":"138.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.46","381.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.45829772,"y":381.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"10.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","337.16"],"fontName":"QSTZII+XlgggcHybllmQqyfvfTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":337.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"Results of Quantitative Employment Modelling","dir":"ltr","width":"232.40","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","337.16"],"fontName":"QSTZII+XlgggcHybllmQqyfvfTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":337.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios will result in an increase in energy-sector jobs in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"the world as a whole at every stage of the projection. The 1.5  °C Scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"increase the renewable energy capacities faster, so employment will increase faster ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"than in the 2.0 °C Scenario. By 2050, employment in te energy sector will be within ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"the same range in both scenarios, at around 48–50 million jobs.","dir":"ltr","width":"253.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":243.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"In 2025, there will be 29.6 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","243.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":243.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"42.3 million in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and 48.1 million in the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"303.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","231.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":231.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"In 2030, there will be 30.3 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","219.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":219.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"49.2 million in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and 53.8 million in the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"303.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","207.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":207.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"In 2050, there will be 29.6 million energy-sector jobs in the 5.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","195.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":195.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"50.4 million in the 2.0 °C Scenario, and 47.8 million in the 1.5 °C Scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"303.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","183.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":183.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":165.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"10.1","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.62","165.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.6183014,"y":165.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":" shows the changes in job numbers under the 5.0  °C, 2.0  °C, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.12","165.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.1183014,"y":165.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C Scenarios for each technology between 2015 and 2030. the 5.0 °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"jobs will drop to 4% below the 2015 levels by 2020 and then remain quite stable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"until 2030. Strong growth in renewable energy will lead to an increase of 44% in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"total energy-sector jobs in the 2.0 °C Scenario and 66% in the 1.5 °C Scenario by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"2025. In the 2.0 °C (1.5 °C) Scenario the renewable energy sector will account for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"81% (86%) in 2025 and 87% (89%) in 2030, with PV having the greatest share of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"24% (26%), followed by biomass, wind, and solar heating.","dir":"ltr","width":"234.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979003} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"8.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":464,"change":"none","str":"Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"262.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.52","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.51830291,"y":623.65332031} {"page":465,"change":"none","str":"418","dir":"ltr","width":"11.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":465,"change":"none","str":"0.","dir":"ltr","width":"5.53","height":"6.73","transform":["0.00","6.73","-6.73","0.00","247.95","103.67"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+NcygvmMyjythRykqcwArialMT","x":247.9526062,"y":103.66570281} {"page":465,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.74","height":"6.73","transform":["0.00","6.73","-6.73","0.00","247.95","109.62"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+NcygvmMyjythRykqcwArialMT","x":247.9526062,"y":109.61723327} {"page":465,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"7.55","height":"6.73","transform":["0.00","6.73","-6.73","0.00","223.27","99.89"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+NcygvmMyjythRykqcwArialMT","x":223.27235412,"y":99.88877105} {"page":465,"change":"none","str":".0","dir":"ltr","width":"6.37","height":"6.73","transform":["0.00","6.73","-6.73","0.00","223.27","107.37"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+NcygvmMyjythRykqcwArialMT","x":223.27235412,"y":107.36858367} {"page":465,"change":"none","str":"20","dir":"ltr","width":"7.55","height":"6.73","transform":["0.00","6.73","-6.73","0.00","198.59","99.89"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+NcygvmMyjythRykqcwArialMT","x":198.5921173,"y":99.88877105} 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Through surveys of around 45 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","361.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":361.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"industry participants across a range of developed and developing nations, IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":349.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"estimated the percentages of person–days for the various occupations across the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"solar PV and onshore and offshore wind farm supply chains (IRENA ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"2017a","dir":"ltr","width":"24.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.17","325.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.16830444,"y":325.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","371.61","325.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":371.60827636,"y":325.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"b","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","378.01","325.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":378.00830078,"y":325.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.01","325.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.00830078,"y":325.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","313.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828018,"y":313.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"). Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","313.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85827636,"y":313.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"10.2","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","110.80","313.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":110.7982788,"y":313.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":" is an example (in this case, for solar PV manufacturing).","dir":"ltr","width":"228.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","128.30","313.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.2982788,"y":313.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"IRENA’s studies are the most detailed estimates of the occupational composi","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","301.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":301.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","301.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":301.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"tions of the solar PV and onshore wind industries to date. ISF has extended the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828018,"y":289.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"application of IRENA’s work in two key ways:","dir":"ltr","width":"186.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","277.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828018,"y":277.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"1.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85828018,"y":259.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"Mapping IRENA’s job categories against the International Standard ","dir":"ltr","width":"325.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","259.79"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":66.35827636,"y":259.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"Classification of Occupations (ISCO):","dir":"ltr","width":"160.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","247.79"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":66.35827636,"y":247.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":" IRENA uses its own occupational clas","dir":"ltr","width":"155.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","227.02","247.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.01828002,"y":247.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","247.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":247.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"sification system, which does not match the ISCO, which is the basis for national ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","235.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35827636,"y":235.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"statistical agency data. For example, ‘regulation and standardization experts’ is ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","223.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35827636,"y":223.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"not a category in the ISCO. Consequently, the IRENA job categories have been ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","211.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35827636,"y":211.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"mapped and translated across to the ISCO to facilitate comparisons between ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","199.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35827636,"y":199.79379272} {"page":466,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy technologies and fossil fuel sectors. 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To clarify construction worker categories for onshore wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"249.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","138.76","313.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":138.75830078,"y":313.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"and PV construction, and for the operation and maintenance of solar PV, interviews ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","301.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":301.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"were conducted with project managers who were currently overseeing or had ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":289.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"recently completed construction projects (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","277.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":277.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"10.4","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","246.63","277.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":246.626297,"y":277.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","264.13","277.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.12631225,"y":277.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"The IRENA studies are the richest data source on employment in solar PV and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","265.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":265.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"onshore wind projects, but further work is required to directly match renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","253.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":253.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"energy job levels against existing fossil fuel sectors and to generate data on mid- and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","241.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":241.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"low-skill jobs, which are of primary interest from a just transition perspective.","dir":"ltr","width":"311.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","229.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":229.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"As an example, Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"90.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","217.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":217.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"10.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.48","217.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.478302,"y":217.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":" shows the occupational hierarchy for solar PV con","dir":"ltr","width":"208.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","173.98","217.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.978302,"y":217.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","217.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":217.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"struction and how it is matched against ISCO. ISCO classifies occupations from a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"one-digit level (left) to a four-digit level (right). Each level is more detailed than the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"previous one in terms of the labour force required for the type of work. This meth","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","181.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17929077,"y":181.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"odology has been transferred to an occupational hierarchy that has been constructed ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"for solar PV, onshore wind, and offshore wind using IRENA and other data sources ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"to map jobs against the ISCO. The result is a matrix with percentages allocated to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"each occupation at the one-, two-, three-, and four-digit levels of aggregation.","dir":"ltr","width":"309.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"The framework for fossil fuels was derived from labour statistics from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","121.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":121.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"Australian 2016 national census for coal mining, gas supply, and coal and gas gen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","109.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":109.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","109.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":109.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"eration (Australian Bureau of Statistics ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","97.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":97.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.75","97.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.74830627,"y":97.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"). Although these data are specific to ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.75","97.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.74830627,"y":97.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"Australia, these statistics provide the best source of data, and regional multipliers in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","85.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":85.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"the quantitative modelling can adjust the results to account for economic differences ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":73.9288025} {"page":468,"change":"none","str":"between 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(8343)","dir":"ltr","width":"75.54","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","335.94","474.80"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.9396904999999,"y":474.79526520000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"4.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","325.94","578.56"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":325.9436882999999,"y":578.5632705700003} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"9 Elementary occupations","dir":"ltr","width":"88.29","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.78","68.51"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.7802056399999,"y":68.51227570000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"4.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.78","163.03"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.7802056399999,"y":163.03227997000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"Labourers in mining, ","dir":"ltr","width":"73.66","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.78","190.66"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.7802056399999,"y":190.65727997000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"construction, manufacturing ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.89","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","357.78","190.66"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.7762078399999,"y":190.65727997000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"and transport (93)","dir":"ltr","width":"60.90","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","367.77","190.66"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":367.77217950999994,"y":190.65727997000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"4.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.77","302.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.77169123999994,"y":302.92527009000037} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"Mining & construction ","dir":"ltr","width":"80.04","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.77","330.55"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.77169123999994,"y":330.55027009000037} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"labourers (931)","dir":"ltr","width":"52.16","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","357.77","330.55"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.7676934399999,"y":330.55027009000037} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"4.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.77","447.17"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.77169123999994,"y":447.17026520000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"Civil engineering Labourers ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.76","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.77","474.80"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.77169123999994,"y":474.79526520000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"(9312)","dir":"ltr","width":"22.66","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","357.77","474.80"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":357.7676934399999,"y":474.79526520000036} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"4.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"17.71","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","347.77","578.56"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.77169123999994,"y":578.5632705700003} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"8.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858292489999926,"y":623.6534195000004} {"page":470,"change":"none","str":"Just Transition: Employment Projections for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"262.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.52","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.51829614999993,"y":623.6534195000004} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"424","dir":"ltr","width":"12.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"For each modelling run, the results for the installed capacity of the renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"energy technologies (MW) and full-time-equivalent jobs (FTE/MW) were used to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"generate an aggregate level of employment for construction, manufacturing, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"operation and maintenance. The matrix was then used to calculate the number of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"jobs at different levels of disaggregation (Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"3.6.1","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","242.42","549.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":242.41729736,"y":549.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":".)","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.42","549.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.41729736,"y":549.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"The final framework is shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"10.4","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","220.81","537.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.80830383,"y":537.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":". This is based on a composite profile ","dir":"ltr","width":"149.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","238.31","537.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":238.30830383,"y":537.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"for each technology using a mix of one-, two-, three-, and four-digit levels of occu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","525.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":525.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"pation, depending on which best illustrates the breakdown of jobs and allows com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","513.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":513.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"parison to be made across technologies. Choices have been made based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"proportion of jobs and the labels that are most readily understandable to readers ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"(noting that the categories used in the ISCO do not always correspond to popularly ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"used titles). Note, for example, that ‘Managers’ is a one-digit category, but trades ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"are broken down into construction trades, metal trades, and electricians because this ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"provides more meaningful descriptions.","dir":"ltr","width":"158.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"In the example shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"132.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"10.6","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","199.88","429.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":199.87831115,"y":429.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":", it is notable that wind and solar farms ","dir":"ltr","width":"172.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","217.38","429.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.37831115,"y":429.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"employ higher proportions of professionals and technicians for their operations and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"maintenance than coal mining, and similar or higher proportions of elementary ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"occupations, but much lower proportions of machinery operators and drivers.","dir":"ltr","width":"308.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"10.3.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"Methodology and Limitations","dir":"ltr","width":"126.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","357.16"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"At the aggregate level, it is assumed that rising labour productivity over time will ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"reduce the labour intensity (i.e., less FTE/MW) that is applied in the construc","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","321.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":321.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"tion, manufacture, and operation and maintenance of each renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"technology. No assumptions have been made about changes to the relative labour ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"intensity between occupations. Over time, we would expect that the proportion ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"of less-skilled jobs would fall as a result of mechanization. Therefore, the share ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"of less-skilled jobs is likely to be overestimated.","dir":"ltr","width":"192.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"IRENA estimates a single global figure for each occupation, averaged from sur","dir":"ltr","width":"316.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":249.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"veys of industry participants across different global markets. In practice, there ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"are variations in labour intensity and the compositions of jobs across supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"chains between different regions (broadly speaking, supply chains in lower-wage ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"nations are more labour intensive). ISF takes account of regional conditions in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","201.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"the job factors applied at the level of major sub-sectors (construction, manufac","dir":"ltr","width":"316.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","189.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":189.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"turing, operation and maintenance), but not at the disaggregated level. Therefore, ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"it is likely that the proportion of less-skilled jobs is overestimated for rich econo","dir":"ltr","width":"316.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","165.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","165.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":165.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"mies and underestimated for less-developed economies.","dir":"ltr","width":"222.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","153.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"The breakdown of the category of ‘construction workers’ is based on interviews ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","141.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"with some Australian solar and wind project managers. The project managers ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"had overseen recent projects and provided detailed estimates of the contributions ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"of different jobs. Nonetheless, the breakdowns are based on a limited sample, ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","105.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"and further research is required to generate more-accurate estimates.","dir":"ltr","width":"273.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":471,"change":"none","str":"E. Dominish et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.71","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+YpyhmmDgdyhcVpsmggTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.70669555,"y":623.65319824} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Table 10.6","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.66","70.57"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":59.66379928,"y":70.57089996} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Occupational compositions for renewable and fossil fuel technologies","dir":"ltr","width":"236.95","height":"8.50","transform":["0.00","8.50","-8.50","0.00","59.66","113.31"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":59.66379928,"y":113.30889892} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"27.29","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","73.24","150.41"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.23629275000002,"y":150.40572315999935} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Onshore Wind","dir":"ltr","width":"43.42","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","73.24","275.41"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.23629275000002,"y":275.4082103499993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Offshore wind","dir":"ltr","width":"43.34","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","73.24","402.20"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.23629275000002,"y":402.20322376999934} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Fossil fuels","dir":"ltr","width":"34.27","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","73.24","526.97"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.23629275000002,"y":526.9732433099994} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"ISCO ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.96","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","84.06","73.40"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.05879489000002,"y":73.40321308999934} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"category","dir":"ltr","width":"25.71","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","73.40"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":73.40321308999934} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Name","dir":"ltr","width":"17.91","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","104.90"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":104.90319782999934} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Construction","dir":"ltr","width":"38.75","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","150.41"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":150.40570790999936} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Manufacturing","dir":"ltr","width":"44.50","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","197.41"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":197.40821034999937} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"O&M","dir":"ltr","width":"17.92","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","249.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":249.15821034999937} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Construction","dir":"ltr","width":"38.75","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","275.41"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":275.4082103499993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Manufacturing","dir":"ltr","width":"44.50","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","321.66"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":321.6607127899993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"O&M","dir":"ltr","width":"17.92","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","374.16"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":374.1607127899993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Construction","dir":"ltr","width":"38.75","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","402.21"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":402.2107005799993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Manufacturing","dir":"ltr","width":"44.50","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","448.23"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":448.2307201099993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"O&M","dir":"ltr","width":"17.92","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","498.98"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":498.9832225499993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Coal ","dir":"ltr","width":"16.04","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","84.06","526.98"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.05879489000002,"y":526.9806895999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"mining","dir":"ltr","width":"21.25","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","526.98"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":526.9806895999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"13.54","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","84.06","557.66"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.05879489000002,"y":557.6631847099993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"supply","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","557.66"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":557.6631847099993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Coal and gas ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.58","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","84.06","587.42"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":84.05879489000002,"y":587.4156871499994} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"generation","dir":"ltr","width":"31.66","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","93.06","587.42"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.05879489000002,"y":587.4156871499994} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.75","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","73.42"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":105.71129886000001,"y":73.41822774999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Managers","dir":"ltr","width":"29.57","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","104.92"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":104.91822774999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"1.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","150.42"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":150.4207378099993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"4.2%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","197.42"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":197.42322499999932} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"6.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","249.17"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":249.17322499999932} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"1.7%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","275.42"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":275.4232249999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"7.6%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","321.68"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":321.67572744999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"1.5%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","374.18"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":374.17572744999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"2.2%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","402.23"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":402.2257457499993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"4.6%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","448.25"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":448.2457347599993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"3.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","499.00"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":498.9982371999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"6.7%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","527.00"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":526.9957042499993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"16.8%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","557.68"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":557.6782603999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"13.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","105.71","587.43"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":105.71129886000001,"y":587.4307017999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.75","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","73.43"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":117.54629795000002,"y":73.43325001999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"Other ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.95","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","104.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":104.93325001999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"professionals ","dir":"ltr","width":"41.45","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","126.55","104.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":126.54629795000002,"y":104.93325001999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"(Legal, ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.17","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","135.55","104.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.54629031000002,"y":104.93325001999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"finance, ","dir":"ltr","width":"25.41","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","144.55","104.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.54629031000002,"y":104.93325001999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"scientific)","dir":"ltr","width":"29.58","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","153.55","104.93"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":153.54629031000002,"y":104.93325001999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"5.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","150.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":150.43575245999932} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"12.7%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","197.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":197.43825489999932} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"4.4%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","249.19"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":249.18825489999932} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"10.6%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","275.44"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":275.43823964999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"11.3%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","321.69"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":321.69074208999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"11.6%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","374.19"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":374.19074208999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"7.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.62","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","402.24"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":402.2407603999993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"26.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","448.26"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":448.26074940999933} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"15.8%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","499.01"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":499.01325184999934} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"10.0%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","527.01"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":527.0107799299993} {"page":472,"change":"none","str":"14.7%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.37","height":"7.50","transform":["0.00","7.50","-7.50","0.00","117.55","557.69"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.54629795000002,"y":557.6932750499993} 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The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"occupations that will have the largest percentage increase in jobs from 2015 to 2025 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"will be labourers, engineers, electricians, and construction trades. The results are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"similar in the 1.5  °C Scenario, except for managers and metal trades, which will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"experience minor reductions in overall jobs (3% each) (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"246.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.7","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","300.60","447.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":300.59631347,"y":447.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","318.10","447.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":318.09631347,"y":447.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"However, the results are not uniform across regions. For example, China and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","435.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":435.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"India will both experience a reduction in the number of jobs for managers and cleri","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":423.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","423.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":423.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"cal and administrative workers between 2015 and 2025, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"298.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":411.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.8","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.81","411.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.80630493,"y":411.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","370.31","411.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":370.30630493,"y":411.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":399.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.8","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.28","399.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.27829742,"y":399.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":" and Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"37.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.78","399.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.77829742,"y":399.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.6","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","145.42","399.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":145.41830444,"y":399.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":" show the employment changes between 2015 and 2025 ","dir":"ltr","width":"225.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","162.92","399.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.91830444,"y":399.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"under the 1.5 °C Scenario. Across all eight employment groups, the net effect of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","387.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":387.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"energy transition will positive or stable (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"179.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","375.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":375.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","233.82","375.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":233.81730651,"y":375.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.32","375.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.31730651,"y":375.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"However, the results are not uniform across regions. For example, China and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","363.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.84829711,"y":363.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"India both foresee a reduction in the number of jobs for managers and clerical and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","351.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":351.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"administrative workers between 2015 and 2025, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"267.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","339.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":339.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.9","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","321.70","339.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":321.69628906,"y":339.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","339.20","339.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":339.19628906,"y":339.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.85","327.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.84829711,"y":327.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.10","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","89.86","327.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.85829925,"y":327.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":" and Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"36.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","112.36","327.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":112.35829925,"y":327.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.75","327.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.74830627,"y":327.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":" show the employment changes between 2015 and 2025 ","dir":"ltr","width":"221.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","166.25","327.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":166.24830627,"y":327.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"under the 2.0 °C Scenario. Across all eight employment groups, the net effect of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","315.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":315.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"energy transition is positive. Further research is required to identify the training ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","303.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":303.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"needs for all employment groups.","dir":"ltr","width":"134.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","291.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84830093,"y":291.79382324} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"10.4","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","247.79"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":247.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"Conclusions","dir":"ltr","width":"62.02","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","247.79"],"fontName":"YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":247.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"Under both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios, the renewable energy transition is pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","219.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":219.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","219.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22628784,"y":219.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"jected to increase employment. Importantly, this analysis has reviewed the locations ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":207.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"and types of occupations and found that the jobs created in wind and solar PV alone ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":195.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"are enough to replace the jobs lost in the fossil fuel industry across all occupation ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":183.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"types. Further research is required to identify the training needs and supportive poli","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":171.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","171.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":171.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"cies needed to ensure a just transition for all employment groups.","dir":"ltr","width":"260.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","159.79"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":159.79379272} {"page":473,"change":"none","str":"E. Dominish et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"62.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","322.71","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+YpyhmmDgdyhcVpsmggTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.70669555,"y":623.65319824} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"427","dir":"ltr","width":"12.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.94","623.65"],"fontName":"PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.93521118,"y":623.65332031} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"-3","dir":"ltr","width":"3.54","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","370.66","91.65"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":370.66281127,"y":91.65200042} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":",0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.76","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","370.66","95.15"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":370.66281127,"y":95.1461029} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"00","dir":"ltr","width":"4.46","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","370.66","98.71"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":370.66281127,"y":98.70703887} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":",0","dir":"ltr","width":"2.93","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","370.66","103.11"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":370.66281127,"y":103.10748291} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"00","dir":"ltr","width":"4.34","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","370.66","106.25"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":370.66281127,"y":106.2506485} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"-2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.54","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","339.20","91.65"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":339.20480346,"y":91.65200042} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":",0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.76","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","339.20","95.15"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":339.20480346,"y":95.1461029} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"00","dir":"ltr","width":"4.46","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","339.20","98.71"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":339.20480346,"y":98.70703887} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":",0","dir":"ltr","width":"2.93","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","339.20","103.11"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":339.20480346,"y":103.10748291} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"00","dir":"ltr","width":"4.34","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","339.20","106.25"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":339.20480346,"y":106.2506485} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"-1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.54","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","307.40","91.65"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":307.3998108,"y":91.65200042} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":",0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.76","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","307.40","95.15"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":307.3998108,"y":95.1461029} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":"00","dir":"ltr","width":"4.46","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","307.40","98.71"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":307.3998108,"y":98.70703887} {"page":474,"change":"none","str":",0","dir":"ltr","width":"2.93","height":"3.98","transform":["0.00","3.98","-3.98","0.00","307.40","103.11"],"fontName":"LNGVQS+QkgcvjQjrskfBjtwtqArialMT","x":307.3998108,"y":103.10748291} 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"UFXNUK+JqbvhdDghtcqDfypbkTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_11","dir":"ltr","width":"159.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 11","dir":"ltr","width":"67.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals ","dir":"ltr","width":"269.05","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"212.46","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","558.03"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":558.02770996} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Damien Giurco, Elsa Dominish, Nick Florin, Takuma Watari, ","dir":"ltr","width":"266.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","522.03"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":522.02770996} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"and Benjamin McLellan","dir":"ltr","width":"103.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","510.03"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":510.02770996} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"36.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"This chapter explores the magnitude of the changes in patterns of material ","dir":"ltr","width":"290.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.62","453.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.61830043999997,"y":453.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"use that will be associated with the increasing deployment of renewable energy and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"discusses the implications for sustainable development. In particular, this chapter ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"focuses on the increased use of lithium and cobalt, metals which are used extensively ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":417.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"in battery technologies, and silver used in solar cells. Consistent with the strong ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":405.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"growth in renewable energy and electrification of the transport system required in a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"1.5°C scenario, the material requirements also rise dramatically, particularly for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":381.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"cobalt and lithium. Scenarios developed for this study show that increasing recycling ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":369.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"rates and material efficiency can significantly reduce primary demand for metals","dir":"ltr","width":"318.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":357.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","372.71","357.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.70831202,"y":357.13769531} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"11.1","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","313.14"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85819910999998,"y":313.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Introduction","dir":"ltr","width":"65.12","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","313.14"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85819910999997,"y":313.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Globally, recent investments in new renewable energy infrastructure have been dou","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":285.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","285.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20818994999996,"y":285.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"ble the investments in new energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power (REN21 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":273.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":261.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"). This is strong evidence of the increasing momentum of the energy transition ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","261.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85819910999997,"y":261.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"away from fossil fuels. A rapid transition to 100% renewables offers hope for reduc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":249.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","249.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17718408999997,"y":249.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"ing carbon emissions and increasing the chance that global warming will be main","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":237.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","237.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14819238999996,"y":237.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"tained to below 2.0 °C. However, the transition to 100% renewables also comes with ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":225.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"requirements for new patterns of material use to support the renewable energy infra","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":213.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","213.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1982107,"y":213.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"structure, including wind turbines, solar cells, batteries, and other technologies.","dir":"ltr","width":"317.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":201.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"This chapter explores the magnitude of the changes in patterns of material use ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85819910999997,"y":189.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"that will be associated with the increasing deployment of renewable energy, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":177.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"discusses the implications for sustainable development. In particular, this chapter ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":165.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"focuses on the increased use of lithium (used extensively in battery technology), ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85819910999998,"y":153.14169311} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco (","dir":"ltr","width":"38.95","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","125.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":125.26540374} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","92.80","125.27"],"fontName":"NXLXAY+CrsbwbYpysxwBwsxnnWingdings-Regular","x":92.80470178999998,"y":125.26540374} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":") · E. Dominish · N. Florin","dir":"ltr","width":"89.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","101.30","125.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.29709528999997,"y":125.26540374} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"313.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","115.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85859964999998,"y":115.26940155} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","105.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85859964999998,"y":105.27339935} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":" damien.giurco@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"93.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","105.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93910120999998,"y":105.27339935} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","171.23","105.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":171.22659204999997,"y":105.27339935} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":" elsa.dominish@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"91.41","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","173.59","105.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.58959864,"y":105.27339935} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":";","dir":"ltr","width":"2.36","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","265.00","105.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.99859524,"y":105.27339935} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":" nick.florin@uts.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"79.60","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","267.36","105.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":267.36160182,"y":105.27339935} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"T. Watari · B. McLellan","dir":"ltr","width":"80.35","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","90.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85859964999998,"y":90.27089691} {"page":483,"change":"none","str":"Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan","dir":"ltr","width":"232.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","80.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85859964999998,"y":80.27490234} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"438","dir":"ltr","width":"12.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"cobalt (again used in batteries, particularly for vehicles), and silver (used in solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"cells because it is an excellent conductor of electricity).","dir":"ltr","width":"221.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"The importance of understanding how material use is affected by renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"energy technologies is already established (Ali et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"217.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","271.27","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":271.27029418,"y":561.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"; Valero et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"57.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","291.27","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":291.27029418,"y":561.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.73","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.728302,"y":561.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"). A ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","369.73","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":369.728302,"y":561.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"range of studies have identified different aspects of the challenges associated with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"the supply of the materials needed for renewable energy. The first aspect is the avail","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":537.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"ability of mineral supplies. For example, Mohr et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"213.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","267.73","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":267.7322998,"y":525.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":") developed commodity-","dir":"ltr","width":"97.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","287.73","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":287.7322998,"y":525.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"focused supply projections for lithium, with an emphasis on the origins and locations ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"of available lithium deposits over time, which are contrasted with a simple demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"function. Other studies have placed more emphasis on demand scenarios, either for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"a specific geographic location, such as Germany (Viebahn et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"261.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.07","477.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.07128906,"y":477.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":") or globally ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.07","477.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.07128906,"y":477.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"(Valero et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.40","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.39730072,"y":465.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"; Watari et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","127.40","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.39730072,"y":465.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.78","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.77830505,"y":465.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"), and some have explored the role of technol","dir":"ltr","width":"179.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","202.78","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":202.77830505,"y":465.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":465.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"ogy mixes and material substitution in detail (Månberger and Stenqvist ","dir":"ltr","width":"286.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","340.18","453.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":340.17630004,"y":453.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","360.18","453.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":360.17630004,"y":453.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"In addition to issues of resource availability, environmental and social issues ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"have also been explored (Giurco et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"160.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","214.03","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":214.02830505,"y":429.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"; Florin and Dominish ","dir":"ltr","width":"94.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","234.03","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":234.02830505,"y":429.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","328.75","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.74829101,"y":429.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":") and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","348.75","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":348.74829101,"y":429.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"need for improved resource governance has been highlighted (Prior et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"294.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.96","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.95928955,"y":417.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"; Ali ","dir":"ltr","width":"19.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","367.96","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":367.95928955,"y":417.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","75.10","405.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":75.09829711,"y":405.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"). This chapter evaluates the total demand to determine which metals may ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.10","405.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.09829711,"y":405.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"present bottlenecks to the supply of renewable energy technologies. The potential to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"offset primary demand is explored through a range of scenarios for technology type, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"material efficiency, and recycling rates. ","dir":"ltr","width":"158.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"This chapter draws on the results of a larger ","dir":"ltr","width":"176.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","211.80","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":211.79829406,"y":369.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"study funded by Earthworks (see Dominish et al. 2019).","dir":"ltr","width":"223.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"This chapter has five sections. Following this introductory section, the second ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"section outlines the material requirements for key renewable energy infrastructure ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"technologies, namely solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and batteries. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"key assumptions, and the energy and resource scenarios are described in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"311.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"11.3","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.56","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.55828857,"y":309.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.06","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.05828857,"y":309.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"together with a summary of the methodology, which is described in detail in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":". The requirements for selected materials (lithium, cobalt, and silver) are presented ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","58.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":58.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"11.4","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","86.36","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":86.35829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":". Following the results, a discussion is presented in Sect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"227.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","103.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":103.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"11.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.51","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.50830078,"y":273.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":".","dir":"ltr","width":"2.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","349.01","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":349.00830078,"y":273.15979003} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"11.2","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","235.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85820007,"y":235.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"Overview of Metal Requirements for each Technology","dir":"ltr","width":"275.06","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","235.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85820007,"y":235.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy and storage technologies typically have high and diverse metal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","207.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":207.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"requirements. Moreover, there are often competing technologies or component ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","195.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":195.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"technologies, which add to the complexity of material considerations. The key met","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","183.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":183.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","183.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19519042,"y":183.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"als used for solar PV, wind power, batteries, and EV are discussed below.","dir":"ltr","width":"292.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","171.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":171.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"11.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","133.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85820007,"y":133.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"Solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"45.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","133.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85820007,"y":133.1598053} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"A typical crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV panel, which is currently the dominant tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":105.15979766} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","105.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18218994,"y":105.15979766} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"nology, with over 95% of the global market, contains about 76% glass (panel sur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":93.15979766} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","93.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17822265,"y":93.15979766} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"face), 10% polymer (encapsulant and back-sheet foil), 8% aluminium (frame), 5% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":81.15979766} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"silicon (solar cells), 1% copper (interconnectors), and less than 0.1% silver (contact ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":69.15979766} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"lines) and other metals (e.g., tin and lead). Thin film technologies, ","dir":"ltr","width":"340.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":57.15980148} {"page":484,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54141235,"y":623.65319824} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"439","dir":"ltr","width":"12.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.13","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.12561035,"y":623.65332031} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"copper–indium–gallium–(di)selenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe), make ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","323.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":323.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"up the remainder of the market. These technologies require less material overall ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","311.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":311.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"than crystalline silicon. For CdTe panels, the composition is 96–97% glass, 3%–4% ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","299.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":299.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"polymer, and less than 1% semi-conductor materials (CdTe) and other metals (e.g., ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","287.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":287.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"nickel, zinc, tin). CIGS contain about 88%–89% glass, 7% aluminium, 4% polymer, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","275.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":275.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"and less than 1% semi-conductor material (indium, gallium, selenium) and other ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","263.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":263.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"metals (e.g., copper) (Weckend et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"150.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","251.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":251.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"2016","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","204.83","251.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":204.83129882,"y":251.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"). Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"37.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","224.83","251.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.83129882,"y":251.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"11.1","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.43","251.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.4283142,"y":251.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":" provides a simplified dia","dir":"ltr","width":"102.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.93","251.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.9283142,"y":251.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","251.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":251.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"gram of the PV supply chain, including key materials and sub-components.","dir":"ltr","width":"300.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","239.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":239.3678894} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"11.2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","195.37"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":195.36790466} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"Wind","dir":"ltr","width":"26.23","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","195.37"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":195.36790466} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"The major raw materials required for the manufacture of wind turbine components ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","167.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":167.36790466} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"are bulk commodities: iron ore, copper, aluminium, limestone, and carbon. Wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","155.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":155.36790466} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"turbines use steel for the towers, nacelle structural components, and the drivetrain, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","143.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":143.36790466} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"accounting for about 80% of the total weight. Some turbine generator designs use ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","131.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":131.36790466} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"direct-drive magnetics, which contain the rare earth metals neodymium and dyspro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","119.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":119.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","119.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":119.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"sium ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","107.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":107.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"(","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","77.22","107.37"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":77.21829986,"y":107.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"18.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","80.55","107.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":80.5483017,"y":107.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"11.2","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.30","107.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.2983017,"y":107.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.80","107.37"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":117.7983017,"y":107.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":" The development of direct-drive permanent magnet generators ","dir":"ltr","width":"265.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","123.63","107.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.62830352,"y":107.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"(PMG) by major producers (e.g., Siemens and General Electric) simplifies the ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","95.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":95.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"design by eliminating the gearbox, and this is attractive for offshore applications ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","83.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":83.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"because it reduces maintenance (Zimmermann et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"207.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","71.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":71.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","261.14","71.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":261.13931274,"y":71.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"). It is estimated that about ","dir":"ltr","width":"106.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","281.14","71.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.13931274,"y":71.36789703} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"20% of all installed wind turbines (both onshore and offshore) use rare earth mag","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","59.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":59.36790084} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","59.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":59.36790084} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"nets (CEMAC ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","47.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":47.36790084} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.46","47.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.45729827,"y":47.36790084} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","133.46","47.37"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":133.4573059,"y":47.36790084} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 11.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","348.20"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83160018,"y":348.19781494} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"227.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.37","348.20"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.37310028,"y":348.19781494} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"7.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85710144,"y":623.65734863} {"page":485,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.34","623.66"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.33860015,"y":623.65734863} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"440","dir":"ltr","width":"13.28","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"11.2.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","362.27"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":362.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"Batteries and Electric Vehicles","dir":"ltr","width":"150.17","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","362.27"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":362.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"This study focuses on lithium ion batteries (LIBs), which power almost all electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","334.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":334.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"vehicles (EVs) on the market today and are also an important technology for sta","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","322.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":322.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","322.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22229003,"y":322.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"tionary energy-storage applications. LIBs are made of two electrodes (anode and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","310.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":310.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"cathode), current collectors, a separator, electrolyte, a container, and sealing parts. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","298.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":298.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"The anode is typically made of graphite, with a copper foil current collector. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","286.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":286.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"cathode is typically a layered transition metal oxide, with an aluminium foil current ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","274.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":274.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"collector. In between the electrodes is a porous separator and electrolyte. All of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","262.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":262.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"these components are typically housed in an aluminium container. LIBs are gener","dir":"ltr","width":"328.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","250.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":250.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","250.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":250.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"ally referred to by the material content of the cathode, which accounts for 90% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","238.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":238.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"the material value and about 25% of the total weight (Gratz et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"261.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","226.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":226.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.78","226.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.77731323,"y":226.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.78","226.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.77731323,"y":226.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"The size and type of the LIB has the greatest impact on the material require","dir":"ltr","width":"316.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","214.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":214.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.24","214.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23831176,"y":214.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"ments. Since commercialization in the 1990s, a range of different types (‘chemis","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","202.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":202.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","202.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":202.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"tries’) have been developed for different applications, named according to the metals ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","190.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":190.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"in the cathode. The most common LIB types for EV applications are nickel–manga","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","178.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":178.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","178.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":178.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"nese–cobalt (NMC), lithium–iron phosphate (LFP), nickel–cobalt–aluminium ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","166.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":166.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"(NCA), and lithium–manganese oxide (LMO) (Vaalma et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"253.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","154.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":154.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","307.09","154.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":307.09228515,"y":154.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"). NMC is the ","dir":"ltr","width":"62.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.05","154.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.05230712,"y":154.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"most common battery type for passenger vehicles, and NCA is also common, with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","142.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":142.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"a small share for LMO. However, in China, LFP is the dominant chemistry. Electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","130.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":130.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"buses have traditionally used LFP batteries (BNEF ","dir":"ltr","width":"201.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","118.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":118.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","255.48","118.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":255.478302,"y":118.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":") and lead–acid batteries are ","dir":"ltr","width":"112.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","275.44","118.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":275.43829345,"y":118.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"most commonly used for two-wheel vehicles. However, the application of LIBs in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","106.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":106.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"this market sector is growing (Yan et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"161.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","94.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":94.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","215.12","94.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":215.1183014,"y":94.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","235.08","94.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":235.07829284,"y":94.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"For energy storage, NMC and NCA are the most commonly used chemistries. A ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","82.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":82.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"simplified overview of the lithium-ion battery supply chain, including its key metals ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","70.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":70.27139282} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 11.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","388.47"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":388.46728515} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for wind power","dir":"ltr","width":"238.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","388.47"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980316,"y":388.46728515} {"page":486,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54141235,"y":623.65319824} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"4 41","dir":"ltr","width":"11.99","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.03","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.02789306,"y":623.65332031} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"(for the NMC chemistry) and sub-components, is shown in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"264.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","288.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":288.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"11.3","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.75","288.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.74832153,"y":288.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":". Rare earth ","dir":"ltr","width":"51.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","337.25","288.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":337.24832153,"y":288.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"permanent magnets using neodymium and dysprosium are common in most electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","276.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":276.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"vehicle motors. Other motor technologies, or those that replace rare earths with ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","264.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":264.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"lower-cost materials, are under development and are already used in some vehicles. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","252.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":252.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"However, rare earth magnets are expected to remain the standard for the foreseeable ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","240.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":240.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"future because of their higher performance characteristics (Widmer et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","228.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":228.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","346.96","228.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":346.96429443,"y":228.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","366.96","228.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":366.96429443,"y":228.95819091} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"11.3","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","184.96"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":184.95820617} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"Scenarios and Key Assumptions","dir":"ltr","width":"163.39","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","184.96"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":184.95820617} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"11.3.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","158.95"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":158.95420837} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"Electricity and Transport Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"175.91","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","158.95"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":158.95420837} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"The energy scenarios presented here were developed to achieve the climate target in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","130.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":130.95820617} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement of limiting anthropogenic climate change to a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","118.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":118.9582138} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"maximum of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This projection is more ambitious ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","106.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":106.9582138} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"than the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenarios, which project that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","94.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":94.9582138} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"current policies, and therefore the global development of renewable power and elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","82.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":82.95819854} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","82.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":82.95819854} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"tric mobility, will not change. In contrast, many scenarios have been proposed in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","70.96"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":70.95819854} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 11.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","313.79"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85830498,"y":313.7880802} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for LIB and EV","dir":"ltr","width":"239.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","313.79"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39980889,"y":313.7880802} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"7.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85830498,"y":623.65557288} {"page":487,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.34","623.66"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.3398037,"y":623.65557288} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"442","dir":"ltr","width":"12.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"academic literature that extend as far as zero emissions, whereas the IEA’s own ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"“Energy Technology Perspectives” (ETP) scenarios include both a 2.0 °C scenario ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"(2DS) and a more ambitious “Beyond 2.0 °C” scenario (B2DS), which aim to achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"the Paris targets. The scenario proposed here includes both a shift to 100% renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"electricity and a shift to renewable electricity and fuels in the transport sector.","dir":"ltr","width":"307.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"In this scenario, solar PV will account for more than one-third of the installed ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"capacity by 2050, with the remainder from wind and other renewables. Lithium-ion ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"batteries will account for approximately 6% of energy storage (which will be domi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","513.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":513.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"nated by pumped hydro and hydrogen).","dir":"ltr","width":"157.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"In the transport system, we focus on the material requirements for the batteries ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"used in road transport, because other types of transport do not require batteries to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"power drivetrains or are assumed to rely on other forms of energy (e.g., biofuels for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"aviation). In 2050, most of the energy for road transport will come from electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"(55%) and hydrogen (22%), and the remainder will be from biofuels and synfuels. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"In the 1.5 °C Scenario, the batteries required to electrify road transport are specified ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"for electric buses and passenger cars, including battery electric vehicles (BEV), ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and commercial vehicles. Passenger cars ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"will account for 92% of vehicles and 51% of battery capacity, whereas commercial ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"vehicles are projected to account for 48% of battery capacity, although they will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"make up only 8% of the total fleet of vehicles. This is because the battery sizes for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"commercial vehicles (assumed to be 250  kWh in 2015 and rising to 600  kWh in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"2050) are larger than those for passenger vehicles (5–15 kWh for PHEV and 38–62 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"kWh for BEV). Buses will account for a small percentage (1%) of both vehicles and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"batteries. Electric bikes and scooters have been excluded, because although they are ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"currently a growing market in Asia, by 2050, their share of electricity consumption ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"will be negligible compared with the predicted uptake of electric passenger and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"commercial vehicles. Lead–acid batteries are also the main type of battery for elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":285.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"tric bikes and scooters, although lithium-ion may replace these in future.","dir":"ltr","width":"289.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"11.3.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","229.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":229.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"Resource Scenario Development","dir":"ltr","width":"160.47","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","229.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":229.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"Five resource scenarios were developed to estimate the metal demand for 100% ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"renewables, as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"127.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"11.1","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.69","189.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.68829345,"y":189.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":". The scenarios were developed based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"188.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","200.19","189.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":200.18829345,"y":189.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"current market trends and the likelihood of changes in material efficiency or tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","177.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":177.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"nology. Our aim is to understand how primary demand can be offset through changes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"in technology or recycling rates.","dir":"ltr","width":"128.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"11.3.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","109.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":109.15979766} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"Technology Assumptions","dir":"ltr","width":"122.69","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","109.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":109.15979766} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"The total metal demand for renewable energy and battery technology each year is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979766} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"estimated based on the metal intensity of a specific technology and the capacity of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15979766} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"each technology introduced in a specific year. This introduced stock will accounts ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","57.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":57.15980148} {"page":488,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54141235,"y":623.65319824} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"443","dir":"ltr","width":"12.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.77","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.77120971,"y":623.65332031} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"for the new capacity and the replacement of technologies at the end of their lives, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","415.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":415.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"based on a lifetime distribution curve for the average lifetime.","dir":"ltr","width":"247.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","403.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":403.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"The values for metal intensity are given in tonnes/GW (for solar PV) or tonnes/","dir":"ltr","width":"319.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","391.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":391.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"GWh (for batteries) of capacity, and two values are given for each metal to evaluate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","379.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":379.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"the impact of improving the material efficiency (for solar PV) and technology shifts ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"(for batteries). To evaluate the impact of recycling, the primary demand is estimated ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"by multiplying the discarded products by the recycling rate. The recycling rate is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"obtained by multiplying the collection rate by the recovery efficiency of a metal ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","331.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":331.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"from a specific technology. This recycling rate is also varied to obtain a current rate ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","319.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":319.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"and a potential rate. The potential recycling rate is technologically possible, but is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","307.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":307.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"not currently applicable because it is not economic. The detailed assumptions for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","295.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":295.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"batteries and solar PV are explained in detail in the following section.","dir":"ltr","width":"278.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","283.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":283.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"11.3.4","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","239.76"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":239.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"Batteries","dir":"ltr","width":"44.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","239.76"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":239.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"The ‘current materials intensity’ for LIB for EVs and storage (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"280.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"11.2","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","334.65","211.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":334.64828491,"y":211.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":") is esti","dir":"ltr","width":"30.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","352.15","211.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":352.14828491,"y":211.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","211.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":211.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"mated based on the assumed market shares of the LIB technologies: NMC (60%), ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"LMO (20%), NCA (15%), and LFP (5%) (Vaalma et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"228.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","282.49","187.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.4862976,"y":187.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"). The dominant bat","dir":"ltr","width":"79.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","302.49","187.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":302.4862976,"y":187.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","187.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":187.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"tery technologies in the future are not likely to be the same as those commercialized ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"today. Therefore, for the ‘future technology scenario’, we assume that lithium–sul","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","163.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":163.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"fur batteries will replace LIB for EVs (Cano et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"198.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.96","151.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.95828247,"y":151.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"). We have modelled a future ","dir":"ltr","width":"115.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","271.96","151.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":271.95828247,"y":151.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"market (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"11.3","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.99","139.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.9882965,"y":139.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":") in which Li–S will achieve a 50% market share for EVs by ","dir":"ltr","width":"257.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","131.49","139.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":131.4882965,"y":139.76379394} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"2050, with deployment scaling up at a linear rate, assuming the first commercializa","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","127.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":127.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"tion in 2030. In this scenario, the technology does not change for storage batteries.","dir":"ltr","width":"329.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"We have assumed a collection efficiency of 100% for all batteries and a recovery ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","103.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":103.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"rate of 90% for Co and Ni (Georgi-Maschler et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"208.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"2012","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","262.78","91.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":262.7782898,"y":91.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"). A 10% recovery rate is ","dir":"ltr","width":"105.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","282.78","91.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":282.7782898,"y":91.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"assumed for Li, acknowledging that pyrometallurgical processing routes account ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"for most of the current global capacity, and Li recovery may not be possible by this ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","67.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":67.76378631} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"Table 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{"page":489,"change":"none","str":"Recycling","dir":"ltr","width":"34.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","279.72","573.92"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.7159423399997,"y":573.9188309} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"Colour in ","dir":"ltr","width":"34.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","344.52","583.91"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.51992793999966,"y":583.9148025799999} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"figures","dir":"ltr","width":"23.14","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","344.52","573.92"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.51992793999966,"y":573.9188309} {"page":489,"change":"none","str":"Total demand","dir":"ltr","width":"46.30","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","561.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.68444057999968,"y":561.2708206399999} 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{"page":489,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.29","623.67"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.29298397999968,"y":623.6693191799999} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"444","dir":"ltr","width":"13.41","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"route (King et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"75.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","402.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":402.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","128.88","402.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":128.876297,"y":402.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"). For scenarios that assume a ‘potential future recycling’ ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.88","402.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.876297,"y":402.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"rate, we have assumed 95% recovery for all metals. This is reasonable given that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","390.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":390.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"100% recovery has been reported in the laboratory (Gratz et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"261.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","378.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":378.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.41","378.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.4112854,"y":378.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.41","378.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.4112854,"y":378.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","341.28","381.56"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.27841186,"y":381.5617981} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":" However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.28","378.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.27841186,"y":378.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"some losses during processing seem unavoidable.","dir":"ltr","width":"197.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","366.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85840988,"y":366.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","251.77","369.56"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.7664032,"y":369.5617981} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"11.3.5","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","322.23"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":322.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"45.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","322.23"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":322.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"For solar PV, we assume that the technology types do not change until 2050, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"that they retain their current market shares, so that crystalline silicon will remain the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"dominant technology. We have modelled the potential to offset demand through ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"increases in material efficiency and increases in recycling.","dir":"ltr","width":"232.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","258.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":258.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"A high and a low value are given for silver to show the impact of material effi","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","246.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":246.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","246.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17929077,"y":246.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"ciency on silver demand. The current data on silver intensity are from a survey of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","234.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":234.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"PV industry (ITRPV ","dir":"ltr","width":"82.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","222.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":222.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","136.79","222.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":136.78829956,"y":222.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"), and the future material efficiency is based on an assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"230.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.75","222.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":156.74830627,"y":222.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"minimum amount of silver (Kavlak et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"171.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","210.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":210.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2015","dir":"ltr","width":"19.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","224.95","210.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.95030212,"y":210.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"). The ‘current recycling rate’ sce","dir":"ltr","width":"137.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","244.91","210.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":244.91029357,"y":210.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","210.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1612854,"y":210.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"narios assume a current collection rate of 85% for all panels, consistent with the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"target of the EU WEEE Directive.","dir":"ltr","width":"136.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","186.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":186.23181152} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","190.40","189.56"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":190.3993988,"y":189.5617981} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":" This should be considered an average rate, not","dir":"ltr","width":"188.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","193.39","186.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":193.3934021,"y":186.23179626} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","186.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16641235,"y":186.23179626} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"ing that remote and/or distributed roof-top systems will be more costly to collect and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","174.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85340118,"y":174.23179626} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"transport than large utility-scale PV. We assume that no recycling is currently occur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","162.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85340118,"y":162.23179626} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","162.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17340087,"y":162.23179626} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","113.97"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":113.96829986} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"See: ","dir":"ltr","width":"15.70","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","111.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.4707985,"y":111.13780212} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"https://americanmanganeseinc.com/investor-info-3/investment-proposition/","dir":"ltr","width":"255.48","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","74.23","111.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":74.23280334,"y":111.13780212} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","101.97"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":101.96829986} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Pers comms Boxall, N.","dir":"ltr","width":"78.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","99.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.4707985,"y":99.13780212} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"3","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","89.97"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":89.96829986} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"More details available here: http://ec. europa.eu/environment/waste/weee/index_en.htm","dir":"ltr","width":"296.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.47","87.14"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.4707985,"y":87.13780212} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Table 11.2","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.17480468} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Material intensity and recycling rates","dir":"ltr","width":"126.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","598.17"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":598.17480468} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"30.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","232.42","583.92"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.4203147399998,"y":583.9188404299998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Batteries","dir":"ltr","width":"30.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.62","583.92"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.6182975299998,"y":583.9188404299998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Materials","dir":"ltr","width":"32.10","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","572.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.691322279999795,"y":572.4098072199997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Silver","dir":"ltr","width":"20.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","232.42","572.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.4203147399998,"y":572.4098072199997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Lithium","dir":"ltr","width":"27.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.62","572.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.6182975299998,"y":572.4098072199997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Cobalt","dir":"ltr","width":"22.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","335.06","572.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.0578116999998,"y":572.4098072199997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Current materials intensity","dir":"ltr","width":"90.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","559.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69131082999979,"y":559.7618580099997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"20 t/GW","dir":"ltr","width":"29.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","232.42","559.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.4203147399998,"y":559.7618580099997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"113 t/GWh","dir":"ltr","width":"38.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.62","559.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.6182975299998,"y":559.7618580099997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"124 t/GWh","dir":"ltr","width":"38.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","335.06","559.76"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.0578116999998,"y":559.7618580099997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Future technology","dir":"ltr","width":"62.09","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","547.93"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69131082999979,"y":547.9298267599997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"4 t/GW","dir":"ltr","width":"25.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","232.42","547.93"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.4202994799998,"y":547.9298267599997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"411 t/GWh","dir":"ltr","width":"38.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.62","547.93"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.6182975299998,"y":547.9298267599997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Current recycling rate [%]","dir":"ltr","width":"89.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","536.10"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69131082999979,"y":536.0978565399997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","232.42","536.10"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.4202994799998,"y":536.0978565399997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"0%","dir":"ltr","width":"11.33","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.62","536.10"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.6182975299998,"y":536.0978565399997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"90%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","335.06","536.10"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.0578116999998,"y":536.0978565399997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Potential recycling rate [%]","dir":"ltr","width":"93.59","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","524.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.691303199999794,"y":524.2658252899997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"81%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","232.42","524.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":232.4202994799998,"y":524.2658252899997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"95%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","281.62","524.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":281.6182975299998,"y":524.2658252899997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"95%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","335.06","524.27"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.0578116999998,"y":524.2658252899997} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Table 11.3","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.85","490.65"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.852302499999794,"y":490.6483326099998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Market share","dir":"ltr","width":"44.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.59","490.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.5902976499998,"y":490.6483326099998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Solar PV","dir":"ltr","width":"30.93","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","134.08","476.39"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.07690424999976,"y":476.3873167299998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Batteries","dir":"ltr","width":"30.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.72","476.39"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.7203978899998,"y":476.3873167299998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Technology","dir":"ltr","width":"40.01","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","464.88"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.692901559999775,"y":464.8783140499998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"c-Si","dir":"ltr","width":"13.69","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","134.08","464.88"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.07690424999976,"y":464.8783140499998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Li-ion","dir":"ltr","width":"21.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.72","464.88"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.7203978899998,"y":464.8783140499998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Li-S","dir":"ltr","width":"15.11","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","264.24","464.88"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.2373961899998,"y":464.8783140499998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Current market share","dir":"ltr","width":"71.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","452.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.68441004999978,"y":452.23030378999977} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"95.8%","dir":"ltr","width":"21.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","134.07","452.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":134.06840509999978,"y":452.23030378999977} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"100%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.71","452.23"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.71191400999976,"y":452.23030378999977} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Future market share","dir":"ltr","width":"67.90","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.68","440.40"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.68441004999978,"y":440.39830305999976} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"Decreases to 50% by ","dir":"ltr","width":"73.64","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.71","440.40"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.71191400999976,"y":440.39830305999976} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"2050","dir":"ltr","width":"17.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","170.71","430.40"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.71191400999976,"y":430.4023313799998} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"50% by 2050, beginning from 2030","dir":"ltr","width":"121.23","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","264.23","440.40"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":264.22891229999976,"y":440.39830305999976} {"page":490,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54141229999976,"y":623.6532163899999} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"445","dir":"ltr","width":"12.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.70","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.70318603,"y":623.65332031} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"ring for silver from PV, but that 95% recovery may be possible. Therefore, for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","498.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":498.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"‘potential recycling rate’ scenarios, we assume a 95% recovery efficiency and an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","486.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":486.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"85% collection rate, which will result in an 81% metal recycling rate.","dir":"ltr","width":"276.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","474.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":474.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"11.3.6","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","430.59"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":430.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Metal Assumptions","dir":"ltr","width":"94.58","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","430.59"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":430.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"For each scenario, the annual primary demand is compared with the current produc","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","402.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":402.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","402.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":402.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"tion (2017 data), and the cumulative demand to 2050 is compared with current ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","390.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":390.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"reserves. The data presented (Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"151.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","378.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":378.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"11.4","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","205.35","378.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":205.34829711,"y":378.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":") highlight the annual production, total ","dir":"ltr","width":"166.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","222.85","378.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.84829711,"y":378.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"resources, and reserves. ‘Reserves’ are the subset of the total resources that can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","366.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":366.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"economically mined under current conditions. They are dependent on a multitude of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","354.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":354.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"factors and can change over time. By contrast, resources are less certain economi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","342.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":342.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","342.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":342.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"cally and there may be no firm plan to mine them. Over time, new resources can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","330.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":330.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"discovered and as economic conditions change, resources may be upgraded to ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","318.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":318.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"reserves (for example, where the price for the metal increases, thus making lower-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","306.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":306.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"grade or more-","dir":"ltr","width":"59.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","294.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":294.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"challenging ores profitable or where a new technology for extraction ","dir":"ltr","width":"274.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","113.01","294.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":113.00830078,"y":294.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"allows lower cost processing). In contrast, reserve estimates can also be downgraded ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","282.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":282.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"over time (as occurred with coal reserve estimates in UK and Germany).","dir":"ltr","width":"289.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","270.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":270.59329223} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"11.4","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","226.59"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":226.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Results for Lithium, Cobalt, and Silver","dir":"ltr","width":"199.26","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","226.59"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":226.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"The cumulative demand from renewable energy technologies for cobalt, lithium, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","198.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":198.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"silver by 2050 has been modelled, and is compared to current reserves in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"311.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","186.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":186.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"11.4","dir":"ltr","width":"17.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.63","186.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.6282959,"y":186.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":". ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","383.01","186.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":383.00830078,"y":186.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"The cumulative demand for cobalt from renewable energy and transport exceeds the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","174.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":174.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"current reserves in all scenarios, and for lithium, the cumulative demand is exceeded ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","162.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":162.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"in all scenarios, except the ‘potential recycling scenario’. For silver, the total demand ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","150.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":150.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"for silver from renewable energy will reach around 50% of current reserves.","dir":"ltr","width":"301.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","138.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":138.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"The annual demand in 2050 is compared with the current rates of production ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","126.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":126.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"(based on 2017 data). Both cobalt and lithium have annual demands that far exceed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","114.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":114.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"the current rates of production—particularly lithium in the ‘future technology’ sce","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","102.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":102.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","102.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":102.5933075} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"nario. However, the annual demand for silver will remain below current production ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","90.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":90.59329986} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"levels (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"47.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","78.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":78.59329986} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"11.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","100.96","78.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":100.95829772,"y":78.59329986} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","118.46","78.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":118.45829772,"y":78.59329986} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"The detailed results for each metal are shown in the following section.","dir":"ltr","width":"280.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","66.59"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":66.59329986} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Table 11.4","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","597.33"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.3336792} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Metal assumptions","dir":"ltr","width":"63.99","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","597.33"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":597.3336792} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Metal","dir":"ltr","width":"19.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","583.08"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.69287872999993,"y":583.07819559} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Production 2017 (tonnes/year)","dir":"ltr","width":"103.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.60","583.08"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":104.59887695999993,"y":583.07819559} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Reserve (tonnes)","dir":"ltr","width":"57.23","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","228.51","583.08"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":228.5118789699999,"y":583.07819559} {"page":491,"change":"none","str":"Resources 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11.10","dir":"ltr","width":"35.05","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","107.10"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83058808000003,"y":107.10078195000001} {"page":495,"change":"none","str":"Annual primary demand for silver from solar PV (c-Si)","dir":"ltr","width":"187.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","94.15","107.10"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.15458940000002,"y":107.10078195000001} {"page":495,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"7.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85608552000003,"y":623.6542792600001} {"page":495,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.34","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.33758805000002,"y":623.6542792600001} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"450","dir":"ltr","width":"12.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"11.5","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","368.30"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":368.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Discussion","dir":"ltr","width":"54.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","368.30"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":368.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Within the context of the increasing metal resource requirements for the renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","340.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":340.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"energy and storage technologies, the rapid increase in the demand for both cobalt ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","328.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":328.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"and lithium is of greatest concern, and the demand for both metals will exceed the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","316.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":316.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"current production rates by 2023 and 2022, respectively. The demand for these met","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","304.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":304.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","304.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":304.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"als will increase more rapidly than it does for silver, partly because solar PV is a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","292.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":292.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"more established technology and silver use has become very efficient, whereas the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","280.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":280.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"electrification of the transport system and the rapid expansion of lithium battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","268.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":268.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"usage has only begun to accelerate in the last few years.","dir":"ltr","width":"223.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","256.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":256.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"The potential to offset the primary demand differs, depending on the technology. ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","244.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":244.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Offsetting demand through secondary sources of cobalt and lithium has the most ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","232.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":232.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"potential to reduce total primary demand for these metals, as batteries have a com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","220.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":220.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","220.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22329711,"y":220.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"paratively short lifetime of approximately 10 years. The cumulative demand for both ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","208.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":208.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"metals will exceed current reserves, but with high recycling rates, they can remain ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","196.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":196.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"below resource levels. However, there is a delay until the period in which recycling ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","184.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":184.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"will offset demand, because there must be enough batteries in use and reaching the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","172.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":172.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"ends of their lives to be collected and recycled. This delay could be further extended ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","160.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":160.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"by strategies for the reuse of vehicular batteries as stationary storage, which might ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","148.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":148.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"save costs in the short term and increase the uptake of PV. The efficiency of cobalt ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","136.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":136.30169677} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"use in batteries also significantly reduces demand, and this is already happening as ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","124.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":124.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"manufacturers shift towards lower-cobalt chemistries (Energy Insights by McKinsey ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","112.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":112.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"19.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","100.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":100.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"). However, this is also likely to lead to an increase in the demand for lithium.","dir":"ltr","width":"308.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.78","100.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.77829742,"y":100.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Increasing the efficiency of material use has the biggest potential utility in offset","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","88.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":88.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","88.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":88.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"ting the demand for PV metals, whereas recycling will have a smaller impact on ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","76.30"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":76.30168914} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.46","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","83.88","449.74"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":83.87938686999998,"y":449.74420119999996} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"100,00","dir":"ltr","width":"19.04","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","64.84","474.66"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":64.83738704999998,"y":474.66320754} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"0","dir":"ltr","width":"3.46","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","83.88","474.66"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":83.88241573999998,"y":474.66320754} 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recycling)","dir":"ltr","width":"77.16","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","225.39","436.59"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":225.38987727999998,"y":436.58718825999995} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Current recyclin","dir":"ltr","width":"43.59","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","111.77","425.53"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":111.77148433999997,"y":425.52520704999995} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"g","dir":"ltr","width":"3.46","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","155.37","425.53"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":155.36523433999997,"y":425.52520704999995} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Potential recyclin","dir":"ltr","width":"47.06","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","225.39","425.53"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":225.38987727999998,"y":425.52520704999995} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"g","dir":"ltr","width":"3.46","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","272.45","425.53"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":272.45146176,"y":425.52520704999995} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Future technology & no recyclin","dir":"ltr","width":"87.20","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","111.77","414.41"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":111.77148433999997,"y":414.41119338} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"g","dir":"ltr","width":"3.46","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","198.98","414.41"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":198.97766110999999,"y":414.41119338} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Future technology & potential recyclin","dir":"ltr","width":"103.81","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","225.39","414.41"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":225.38987726999997,"y":414.41119338} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"g","dir":"ltr","width":"3.46","height":"6.23","transform":["6.23","0.00","0.00","6.23","329.21","414.41"],"fontName":"HJJNUK+TbspjnMdrdkwSprlqrArialMT","x":329.21299739999995,"y":414.41119338} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 11.11","dir":"ltr","width":"35.05","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","394.50"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83158487999997,"y":394.49771072} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"Cumulative primary demand for silver from solar PV (c-Si) by 2050","dir":"ltr","width":"231.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","94.62","394.50"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.62308497999997,"y":394.49771072} {"page":496,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54139704999994,"y":623.65319778} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"451","dir":"ltr","width":"11.68","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.38","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.37548828,"y":623.65332031} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"demand. This is attributable to the long life-span of solar PV panels, and their lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"potential for recycling. Although not as extreme as the growth of cobalt and lithium, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"the growth of silver and its demand in 2050 are still considerable. This is important, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"especially when considering that solar PV currently consumes approximately 9% of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"end-use silver (The Silver Institute & Thomson Reuters ","dir":"ltr","width":"230.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.80","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.79830932,"y":549.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"), and although it is ","dir":"ltr","width":"84.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","304.80","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.79830932,"y":549.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"possible to create silver-less solar panels, these panels are not expected to be on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"market in the near future (ITRPV 2018).","dir":"ltr","width":"161.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"11.5.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","481.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":481.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"Limitations","dir":"ltr","width":"56.69","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","481.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":481.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"This study only focuses on the metal demand for renewable energy and transport. It ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"does not take into account other demands for these metals. It is expected that with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"the increase in renewable energy, renewable energy technologies will consume a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"greater share of these metals. In our modelling, the recycled content used in tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":417.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"nologies comes only from metals from the same technologies at the end of their ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"lives. However, the demand could potentially be offset by accessing other secondary ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"sources of the metal. At the same time, these technologies are only one end-use ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"within the overall economic demand for these metals. The expansion of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"energy and storage technologies could have a significant effect on the overall market ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"dynamics, including influencing prices, which may feed back to the efforts to reduce ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"material intensity. These results only focus on cobalt, lithium, and silver because of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"their importance. However, further analysis is required of other metals that will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"important in the renewable energy transition.","dir":"ltr","width":"179.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"Another important limitation is that this analysis does not consider the impact of ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"the demand for a mineral on the mining of that mineral and therefore on the amount ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"of energy required for this mining and processing activity. In particular, as the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"potential ore grade declines, and polymetallic ore processing and the mining of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"deeper ore bodies increase, it is possible that this feedback loop could have a more-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"than-","dir":"ltr","width":"20.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"marginal influence on the overall sectoral energy consumption. To examine ","dir":"ltr","width":"314.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","74.41","237.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":74.4083023,"y":237.15977478} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"this is an area accurately will require much more-complex modelling.","dir":"ltr","width":"278.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"11.5.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","181.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":181.1598053} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"Comparison with Other Studies","dir":"ltr","width":"155.71","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","181.16"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":181.1598053} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"A large number of studies have examined scenarios for renewable energy and stor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","153.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":153.1598053} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"age technologies that will mitigate climate change. In recent years, there has also ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.1598053} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"been an upsurge in studies of mineral ‘criticality’, which have paralleled the present ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.1598053} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"study in terms of the high penetration of renewable and storage technologies and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979766} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"potential constraints that certain minerals may impose. This increased interest has ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.15979766} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"been prompted to some extent by China’s rare earth export restrictions of ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.15979766} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"7.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":497,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.34","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.33979797,"y":623.65332031} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"452","dir":"ltr","width":"12.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2009–2011, which reflect the sense that mineral supply chains are still quite inse","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","466.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":466.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","466.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":466.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"cure. Most of these studies have addressed specific technologies or specific coun","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","454.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":454.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","454.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":454.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"tries or regions, rather than global climate targets. A number of studies have ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","442.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":442.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"specifically and directly addressed the Paris Agreement targets (ensuring that the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","430.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":430.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"temperature rise does not exceed 2.0 °C), although the modelling frameworks have ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","418.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":418.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"been slightly different. Some of the authors of the present chapter have been ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","406.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":406.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"involved in these studies (Tokimatsu et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"170.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","394.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":394.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","223.97","394.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":223.96730041,"y":394.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"; Watari et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"55.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.97","394.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.96730041,"y":394.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","299.80","394.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":299.79830932,"y":394.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.80","394.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.79830932,"y":394.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"A range of variables affect the results, including the installed capacity and tech","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","382.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85830688,"y":382.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","382.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":382.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"nology type in the energy scenario; the assumed market demand of technology ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","370.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":370.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"types (e.g., type of battery or solar panel); and the material intensity assumptions. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","358.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":358.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"The projected future demand for lithium is higher than in previous studies, and that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","346.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":346.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"for cobalt is similar or higher (Månberger and Stenqvist ","dir":"ltr","width":"230.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","334.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":334.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.61","334.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":284.60830688,"y":334.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"; Watari et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"57.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","304.61","334.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":304.60830688,"y":334.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","362.73","334.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":362.728302,"y":334.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"; ","dir":"ltr","width":"5.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.73","334.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.728302,"y":334.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Valero et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"53.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","107.25","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":107.24530792,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"; Watari et  al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","127.25","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.24530792,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","186.86","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":186.85830688,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"), as shown in Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"85.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.86","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.85830688,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"11.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","293.68","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":293.6783142,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":". This is primarily ","dir":"ltr","width":"77.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","311.18","322.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":311.1783142,"y":322.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"attributable to the ambitious renewable energy scenario used in this study, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","310.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":310.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"includes achieving a 100% renewable transport system by 2050, whereas the other ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","298.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":298.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"studies have still included a large share of gasoline-powered cars in 2050. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","286.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":286.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"study also includes batteries for stationary energy storage, whereas the other studies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","274.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":274.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"have only included batteries for road transport. Moreover, this study assumes a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","262.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":262.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"shorter battery life of 10 years, based on current warranties, whereas some scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","250.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":250.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"assume a longer life.","dir":"ltr","width":"82.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","238.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":238.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"The results for silver are in the middle of the range of results given by other stud","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","226.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85830688,"y":226.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","226.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":226.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"ies. Our scenario includes a higher installed capacity of PV in 2050 than the other ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","214.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":214.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"studies. However, this study also assumes a lower metal intensity than previous ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","202.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":202.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"studies, because new data have been published based on the current material use by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","190.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":190.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"the PV industry (ITRPV ","dir":"ltr","width":"100.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","178.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583107,"y":178.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","153.86","178.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":153.85830688,"y":178.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","173.86","178.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":173.85830688,"y":178.09329223} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"11.6","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","134.09"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85820007,"y":134.0933075} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Supply Impacts and Challenges","dir":"ltr","width":"161.70","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","134.09"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85820007,"y":134.0933075} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"In addition to the material requirements for renewable technologies explored earlier ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","106.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":106.09329986} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"in this chapter, it is important to understand the changes in the available supply, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","94.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":94.09329986} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"geopolitical landscape, and the associated social and environmental impacts, which ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","82.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":82.09329986} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"are outlined below.","dir":"ltr","width":"76.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","70.09"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85820007,"y":70.09329986} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Table 11.5","dir":"ltr","width":"37.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","598.17"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Comparison of results with other studies","dir":"ltr","width":"137.65","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","96.60","598.17"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.59629821,"y":598.1743164} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Study","dir":"ltr","width":"19.84","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","562.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.6930199000001,"y":562.4133558499999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Energy Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"56.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","165.28","562.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.28052141000012,"y":562.4133558499999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Metals (% of reserves up ","dir":"ltr","width":"86.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","295.82","583.92"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.82350542000006,"y":583.9183607399999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"to 2050)","dir":"ltr","width":"28.57","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","295.82","573.92"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.82350542000006,"y":573.9223280199999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Cobalt","dir":"ltr","width":"22.67","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","295.82","562.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.82350542000006,"y":562.4133558499999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Lithium","dir":"ltr","width":"27.40","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.27","562.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.2715340000001,"y":562.4133558499999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Silver","dir":"ltr","width":"20.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","365.34","562.41"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.3365059100001,"y":562.4133558499999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"This study","dir":"ltr","width":"35.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","56.69","549.77"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":56.6930084400001,"y":549.7653455999998} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C100% renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"105.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","165.28","549.77"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.28050616000013,"y":549.7653455999998} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"28.32","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","165.28","539.77"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.28050616000013,"y":539.7693739199999} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"420%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","295.82","549.77"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":295.82350542000006,"y":549.7653455999998} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"170%","dir":"ltr","width":"19.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.27","549.77"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.2715034700001,"y":549.7653455999998} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"50%","dir":"ltr","width":"15.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","365.34","549.77"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.3365059100001,"y":549.7653455999998} {"page":498,"change":"none","str":"Watari et al. 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Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54143145000006,"y":623.6532240199999} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"453","dir":"ltr","width":"11.99","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.22","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.22338867,"y":623.65332031} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"11.6.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","477.34"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":477.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Geopolitical Landscape","dir":"ltr","width":"116.33","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","477.34"],"fontName":"MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":477.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"The geopolitical shift underway in the supply of the resources required for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","449.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":449.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"globe’s future energy mix is clearly illustrated in Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"218.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","437.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":437.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"11.12","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","272.44","437.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":272.43829345,"y":437.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":". Whereas the value of ","dir":"ltr","width":"93.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","294.94","437.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":294.93829345,"y":437.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"the lithium industry is much less than the value of the oil industry, this comparison ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","425.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":425.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"highlights a distinct shift in the energy commodities that society values. Oil’s rate of ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","413.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":413.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"use is projected to decline somewhat in the decade ahead (Mohr et al. 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A similar situation of heavily concentrated supply occurs for ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","341.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":341.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"cobalt, where the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the largest supplier, at ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","329.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":329.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"around 66,000 tonnes per year. The next four largest cobalt-producing countries ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","317.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":317.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"(China, Canada, Russia, and Australia) only produce 5–7000 tonnes per year each. 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These ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","197.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":197.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"impacts are most significant for the cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","185.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":185.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Congo, where there are human rights violations, child labour, and severe environ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","173.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":173.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","173.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":173.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"mental pollution affecting health (Florin and Dominish ","dir":"ltr","width":"222.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","161.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":161.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","276.10","161.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.09829711,"y":161.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","296.10","161.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":296.09829711,"y":161.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"These types of impacts at mine sites and along the supply chain also influence the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","149.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":149.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"availability of primary resources. For example, whereas Australia and Chile are ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","137.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":137.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"large producers of lithium, large deposits remain undeveloped in Bolivia, due in part ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","125.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":125.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"to local concerns over the social and environmental impacts. The global silver mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","113.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":113.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","113.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":113.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"ket receives less media attention than the market for lithium, but the world’s second-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","101.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":101.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"largest silver mine (Escobal) in Guatemala is currently closed by a constitutional ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","89.34"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":89.34320068} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Top 5 Oi","dir":"ltr","width":"17.26","height":"4.50","transform":["4.50","0.00","0.00","4.50","54.53","546.13"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":54.52550125,"y":546.12701416} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"l","dir":"ltr","width":"1.00","height":"4.50","transform":["4.50","0.00","0.00","4.50","71.79","546.13"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":71.78749847,"y":546.12701416} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"producing countries:","dir":"ltr","width":"40.52","height":"4.50","transform":["4.50","0.00","0.00","4.50","54.53","540.73"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":54.52550125,"y":540.72698974} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Northern hemisphere","dir":"ltr","width":"42.26","height":"4.50","transform":["4.50","0.00","0.00","4.50","54.53","535.33"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":54.52550125,"y":535.32702636} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"features heavily","dir":"ltr","width":"31.51","height":"4.50","transform":["4.50","0.00","0.00","4.50","54.53","529.93"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":54.52550125,"y":529.92700195} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Top 5 Lithium","dir":"ltr","width":"27.29","height":"4.50","transform":["4.51","0.00","0.00","4.50","219.34","546.13"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":219.34010314,"y":546.12738037} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"producing countries:","dir":"ltr","width":"40.57","height":"4.50","transform":["4.51","0.00","0.00","4.50","219.34","540.73"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":219.34010314,"y":540.72735595} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Southern hemisphere","dir":"ltr","width":"43.07","height":"4.50","transform":["4.51","0.00","0.00","4.50","219.34","535.33"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":219.34010314,"y":535.32739257} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"features heavily","dir":"ltr","width":"31.55","height":"4.50","transform":["4.51","0.00","0.00","4.50","219.34","529.93"],"fontName":"DDLPQS+HhcdtvLcqtlrJpqfqdHelvetica","x":219.34010314,"y":529.92736816} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 11.12","dir":"ltr","width":"35.05","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.83","503.54"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.83209991,"y":503.53921508} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Top five oil-producing countries (left) versus lithium-producing countries (right)","dir":"ltr","width":"273.39","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","94.47","503.54"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.47059631,"y":503.53921508} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"11","dir":"ltr","width":"7.98","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85760116,"y":623.65270996} {"page":499,"change":"none","str":"Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"242.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.34","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.3391037,"y":623.65270996} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"454","dir":"ltr","width":"12.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"court ruling that the Xinca Indigenous peoples were not adequately consulted before ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"a mine licence was granted (Jamasmie ","dir":"ltr","width":"155.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.83","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":209.82730102,"y":585.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","229.83","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":229.82730102,"y":585.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"The increased use of materials such as lithium, cobalt, and silver has economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"implications for the future of battery manufacture. For example, the cost of cobalt ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"has risen dramatically from US$20000/t in 2016 to US$80000 in 2018 (Tchetvertakov ","dir":"ltr","width":"332.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"). This is prompting manufacturers to look for alternatives, such as nickel, ","dir":"ltr","width":"315.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","73.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":73.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"vanadium, and zinc (Tchetvertakov ","dir":"ltr","width":"145.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","199.69","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":199.69230651,"y":525.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"). At the same time, a significant propor","dir":"ltr","width":"162.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","219.69","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":219.69230651,"y":525.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":525.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"tion of these price fluctuations are attributable to non-industrial factors, such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"investment and speculation in metal markets, which may also require greater regula","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","501.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":501.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"tion to avoid unnecessary restrictions on renewable energy and storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"339.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"technologies.","dir":"ltr","width":"53.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"11.6.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"Recycling Challenges","dir":"ltr","width":"90.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","441.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"Whilst recycling can help to offset primary material demand through recycled ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"sources, there are technological, social and environmental challenges to increasing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"recycling","dir":"ltr","width":"37.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":". The collection systems and infrastructure required to recycle metals from ","dir":"ltr","width":"296.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.92","393.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.91829681,"y":393.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy technologies are not well established. For example, although sil","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","381.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":381.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"ver has an overall recycling rate of 30–50% (Graedel et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"240.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"2011","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","294.03","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":294.02529907,"y":369.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"), almost no recy","dir":"ltr","width":"68.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","314.03","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":314.02529907,"y":369.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2243042,"y":369.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"cling of silver from PV panels occurs, because most recycling of PV panels focuses ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"on recycling the glass, aluminium, and copper. Most of the processes used to recycle ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"lithium-ion batteries focus on the recovery of cobalt and nickel, because of their ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"higher price, so that lithium is downcycled into less valuable products, such as ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"cement. It should also be noted that the recycling of some key energy materials, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"such as rare earths in magnets, does not offer significant cost savings or environ","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","297.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":297.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"mental benefits over their extraction from primary resources (McLellan et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","359.71","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":359.70629882,"y":285.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.71","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.70629882,"y":285.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"The establishment of effective collection networks is important for recycling. ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"Collection networks must be easily understood and must provide easily accessible ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"deposit mechanisms. Recycling can be both informal and formal, and whereas in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"some cases, informal collection networks offer greater rates of recycling, the social ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"and environmental impacts can be higher. For example, recycling electronic waste ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"on open fires creates hazardous fumes for informal recyclers and has detrimental ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"effects on the environment. There is also a potential tension between reducing mate","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","201.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20529174,"y":201.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"rial intensity and the ability to effectively separate, recover, and recycle materials. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"Increasingly, thin layers of material are being utilized because of improved manu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","177.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19030761,"y":177.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"facturing processes, which can reduce the costs of products in their first lifetimes. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"However, as the material content decreases, the value of the secondary production ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"decreases, making it a less attractive option for investment. Again, the use of ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"advanced, complex materials can sometimes make valuable materials difficult to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"separate from each other, and this again increases the costs and reduces the profits ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"for investors in recovery processes.","dir":"ltr","width":"140.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"To ensure that social and environmental issues will be addressed, several initia","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","93.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17730712,"y":93.1597824} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"tives across supply chains are being developed, including the China-led Responsible ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"Cobalt Initiative, the Cobalt Institute, the Initiative for Responsible Mining ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":500,"change":"none","str":"D. Giurco et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"52.97","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","332.54","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+BppxnbPqhhjwFmmdfdTimesLTStd-Roman","x":332.54141235,"y":623.65319824} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"455","dir":"ltr","width":"12.11","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.17","623.65"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.16729736,"y":623.65332031} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"Assurance, Solving the Ewaste Problem (StEP), and the R2 standard for sustainable ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"electronics recycling. In the USA, the Dodd-Frank Act has mandated the traceabil","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","585.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19229125,"y":585.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"ity of the gold, tin, tungsten, and tantalum from the Democratic Republic of Congo. ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"This has arisen from the international concern over the social impacts and implica","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","561.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":561.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"tions of sourcing metals from that country, and in particular, to avoid supporting ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"conflict and environmental damage. However, cobalt is not explicitly mentioned in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"the Dodd-Frank Act.","dir":"ltr","width":"82.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"International resource governance that looks beyond renewable energy and ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"beyond a single commodity focus is increasingly recognised as a missing area in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"environmental policy (Ali et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"129.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.78","489.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.78030395,"y":489.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"). The transition to renewable energy and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"184.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","203.78","489.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":203.78030395,"y":489.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"associated requirements for resources to support this transition could be a catalyst ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"for advancing such policies.","dir":"ltr","width":"111.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"11.7","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","421.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":421.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"Concluding Remarks","dir":"ltr","width":"109.01","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","421.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":421.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"This chapter has given an overview of the material requirements for key renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"energy technologies and the projected demands for lithium, cobalt, and silver. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"Consistent with the strong growth in renewable energy and the electrification of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"transport system required by the 1.5 °C scenario, these material requirements will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"also increase dramatically, particularly those for cobalt and lithium. The high total ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"demand requirements for these metals emphasize the importance of recycling, alter","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","333.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":333.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"native chemistries, and transport planning and practices (including city design to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"encourage active and public transport, as well as car sharing and pooling). The key ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"messages of this chapter are: it is important to design for both renewable energy and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"resource cycles; and it is important to adopt a systems view that considers the avail","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","285.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19329833,"y":285.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"able supply and also social and environmental factors. To support sustainable devel","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","273.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":273.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"opment goals, both the primary and secondary sources of the resources required to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"underpin the renewable energy transformation must be stewarded effectively as the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"supply chains develop.","dir":"ltr","width":"90.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"References","dir":"ltr","width":"55.75","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","193.16"],"fontName":"SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":193.1598053} {"page":501,"change":"none","str":"Ali, S.  H., D.  Giurco, N.  Arndt, E.  Nickless, G.  Brown, A.  Demetriades, R.  Durrheim, M.  A. 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+VdqjgxSyshydScxwltTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12","dir":"ltr","width":"159.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 12","dir":"ltr","width":"67.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Implications of the Developed Scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.48","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"for Climate Change","dir":"ltr","width":"134.69","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","558.03"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":558.02770996} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Malte Meinshausen","dir":"ltr","width":"83.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","522.03"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":522.02770996} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"This section provides a summary of the implications of the developed ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.89","465.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.88829706999998,"y":465.13769531} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for global mean climate change. Specifically, we con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","453.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13629054,"y":453.13769531} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"sider atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"89.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":441.13769531} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","143.66","439.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.66149805999999,"y":439.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations, radiative forcing, global-mean surface air ","dir":"ltr","width":"242.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","146.63","441.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":146.63149927999999,"y":441.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"temperatures and sea level rise.","dir":"ltr","width":"124.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86149881999998,"y":429.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"The question addressed in this section is what the implications are for future climate ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86149881999998,"y":393.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"change if the world were to follow the energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"223.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86149881999998,"y":381.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","277.37","379.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":277.37109279,"y":379.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" emissions developed here, ","dir":"ltr","width":"107.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","280.34","381.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.34109400999995,"y":381.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"complemented by land-use CO","dir":"ltr","width":"127.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86109064999998,"y":369.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","181.39","367.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":181.38709924999998,"y":367.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" emissions and those of other greenhouses gases ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","184.36","369.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":184.35710047999999,"y":369.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"(GHGs). According to the high-","dir":"ltr","width":"126.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85710047999998,"y":357.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"emission scenario with unabated fossil fuel use, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"207.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","180.82","357.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":180.81709193999998,"y":357.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"world could experience 1400 ppm CO","dir":"ltr","width":"152.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85710047999998,"y":345.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","206.03","343.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.02780054999997,"y":343.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations by the end of 2100, which is ","dir":"ltr","width":"179.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","209.00","345.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":208.99780176999997,"y":345.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"five times higher than the pre-industrial background concentration of 278 ppm. Our ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779856999998,"y":333.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"ice-core records have shown that over the last 850,000 years, the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"268.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85779856999998,"y":321.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","322.62","319.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":322.61770534,"y":319.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations ","dir":"ltr","width":"62.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","325.59","321.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":325.58770654999995,"y":321.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"have only oscillated between approximately 180 ppm and 280 ppm. In fact, for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85769937999998,"y":309.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"last 10  million years on this planet, the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"186.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85769937999998,"y":297.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","240.32","295.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":240.32420254,"y":295.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations have probably not ","dir":"ltr","width":"146.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","243.29","297.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":243.29420374999998,"y":297.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"exceeded the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"70.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","285.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.854197489999976,"y":285.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","124.07","283.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":124.07160089999998,"y":283.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations that our thirst for fossil fuels would propel the ","dir":"ltr","width":"262.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","127.04","285.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":127.04160211999998,"y":285.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"world into in just two centuries.","dir":"ltr","width":"125.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159799999998,"y":273.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"That is a dramatic change to the thin layer of atmosphere that wraps our planet. ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","261.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86160944999997,"y":261.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Even if any climate change consequences that follow from this dramatic change in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159799999998,"y":249.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86159799999998,"y":237.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","235.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.74800013999997,"y":235.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations are disregarded, the consequences will be dramatic. At atmo","dir":"ltr","width":"311.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","237.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.74800013999997,"y":237.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","237.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16900538,"y":237.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"spheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"45.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85800073999998,"y":225.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","98.87","223.64"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":98.86810205999998,"y":223.64169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" concentrations above 900 ppm, the acidity level in the oceans will drop ","dir":"ltr","width":"285.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","101.87","225.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":101.86810205999998,"y":225.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"below the so-called ‘aragonite saturation level’, which is the level required for coral ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858099939999974,"y":213.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"reefs and other organisms with calciferous shells to sustain their structures (Ricke ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858099939999974,"y":201.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"et al. ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858099939999974,"y":189.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"2013","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","75.33","189.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":75.32810114999998,"y":189.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"). Therefore, without even considering ocean warming and the associated ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.33","189.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.32810114999998,"y":189.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"bleaching, this would mean the end of much marine life as we know it.","dir":"ltr","width":"283.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.14"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.858099939999974,"y":177.14169311} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"M. Meinshausen (","dir":"ltr","width":"61.62","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","110.82"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":110.82099914} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"*","dir":"ltr","width":"8.49","height":"7.50","transform":["7.50","0.00","0.00","7.50","115.47","110.82"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+SngdhnHsscwpFhlvpgWingdings-Regular","x":115.47399805999997,"y":110.82099914} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":") ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.96","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","123.97","110.82"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":123.96639917999998,"y":110.82099914} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, ","dir":"ltr","width":"291.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","100.82"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85839746999998,"y":100.82499694} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"Victoria, Australia","dir":"ltr","width":"62.29","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","90.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85839746999998,"y":90.82900238} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":"e-mail:","dir":"ltr","width":"24.08","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","80.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85839746999998,"y":80.83300018} {"page":504,"change":"none","str":" malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au","dir":"ltr","width":"126.95","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","77.94","80.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":77.93890283999998,"y":80.83300018} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"460","dir":"ltr","width":"13.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"12.1","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Background on the Investigated Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"215.20","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","595.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"The international community uses various scenarios to explore these future changes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"to CO","dir":"ltr","width":"24.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","78.67","554.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.66989898,"y":554.29382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":", involving other GHGs and ultimately, temperature, precipitation changes, ","dir":"ltr","width":"306.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","81.67","555.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":81.66989898,"y":555.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"and changes involving extreme events. Here, we compare the scenarios developed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":543.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"in this study with the standard scenarios developed for the forthcoming ","dir":"ltr","width":"338.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":531.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":519.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"scenarios used in the forthcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report are the so-called ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":507.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"‘SSP scenarios’. The full range of those nine SSP scenarios spans cases of unabated ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":495.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"fossil fuel use at the higher-emissions end to two scenarios at the lower-emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":483.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"end that are considered to be consistent with a 2  °C and 1.5  °C warming target. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":471.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"These two scenarios are called ‘SSP1_26’ and ‘SSP1_19’, respectively.","dir":"ltr","width":"285.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":459.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Both of those lower-emissions scenarios imply a substantial amount of biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","447.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85990142,"y":447.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"use for energy, combined with CCS, to draw down atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"271.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","435.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85990142,"y":435.79382324} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","324.94","434.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":324.94158935,"y":434.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" levels. This is ","dir":"ltr","width":"60.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","327.94","435.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":327.94158935,"y":435.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"the ","dir":"ltr","width":"14.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8615799,"y":423.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"key","dir":"ltr","width":"14.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","69.13","423.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":69.13157653,"y":423.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" difference from the scenarios developed in the present study. Whereas we ","dir":"ltr","width":"305.25","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","83.32","423.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":83.32157897,"y":423.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"use a substantial amount of negative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"163.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8615799,"y":411.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","217.61","410.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.61019897,"y":410.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" emissions in the reforestation and forest ","dir":"ltr","width":"167.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","220.61","411.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":220.61019897,"y":411.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"restoration options, our analysis does not depend on the assumption that biomass, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86021041,"y":399.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"combined with CCS, must be used on large scale to achieve either the 2 °C or 1.5 °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86021041,"y":387.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"target.","dir":"ltr","width":"25.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86021041,"y":375.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"If we do not rely on some negative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"156.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8602066,"y":363.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","222.53","362.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.53230285,"y":362.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" emission options, in particular biomass ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","225.53","363.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":225.53230285,"y":363.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"and CCS, the questions are: (1) to what extent are those negative emissions created ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86230087,"y":351.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"by other means (e.g., reforestation); or (2) whether CO","dir":"ltr","width":"222.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86230087,"y":339.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","276.38","338.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":276.38400268,"y":338.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" emissions can be reduced ","dir":"ltr","width":"109.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","279.38","339.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":279.38400268,"y":339.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"in the first place so that we do not ","dir":"ltr","width":"135.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","327.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85401153,"y":327.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"need ","dir":"ltr","width":"21.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","189.72","327.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.72401428,"y":327.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"to","dir":"ltr","width":"7.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","210.96","327.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":210.96400451,"y":327.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" rely on negative emissions options; or (3) ","dir":"ltr","width":"169.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","218.74","327.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":218.7440033,"y":327.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"whether other non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"91.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","315.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85401153,"y":315.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","145.82","314.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":145.82009887,"y":314.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" gases can be reduced even further to make negative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"233.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","148.82","315.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":148.82009887,"y":315.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","314.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":314.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"emissions unnecessary. The scenarios developed in this study use all three options, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":303.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"as outlined in the previous chapters. Not only will energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"274.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":291.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","328.81","290.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.81451416,"y":290.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" emissions be ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","331.81","291.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":331.81451416,"y":291.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"radically reduced, CO","dir":"ltr","width":"88.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","279.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8545189,"y":279.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","141.88","278.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.8755951,"y":278.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" uptake via reforestation and forest restoration will also play ","dir":"ltr","width":"243.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","144.88","279.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.8755951,"y":279.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"an important role. This study takes a more conservative approach to non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"304.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","267.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85559082,"y":267.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","358.45","266.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":358.45071411,"y":266.29379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" gases ","dir":"ltr","width":"26.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","361.45","267.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":361.45071411,"y":267.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"by being consistent with other stringent mitigation scenarios. ","dir":"ltr","width":"252.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","255.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86071014,"y":255.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Thereby, we ensure","dir":"ltr","width":"79.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","306.07","255.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":306.07070922,"y":255.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"that the feasibility constraints implicitly or explicitly set by other modelling frame","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","243.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86071014,"y":243.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","243.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20071411,"y":243.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"works are not violated.","dir":"ltr","width":"91.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","231.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86071014,"y":231.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"12.2","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","187.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85820007,"y":187.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Comparison of Atmospheric CO","dir":"ltr","width":"166.32","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","187.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85820007,"y":187.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.60","height":"7.20","transform":["7.20","0.00","0.00","7.20","253.18","185.99"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":253.17640686,"y":185.99380493} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" Concentrations ","dir":"ltr","width":"84.66","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","256.78","187.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":256.7763977,"y":187.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"and Radiative Forcing","dir":"ltr","width":"113.92","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","173.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85639953,"y":173.78979492} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"As mentioned above, unabated fossil fuel use over the last century and the twenty-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"first century will dramatically change the oceans, simply by creating an atmospheric ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","121.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":121.79379272} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","120.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":120.29380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" concentration beyond that present on the Earth for the last 10 million years. ","dir":"ltr","width":"318.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","121.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":121.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Currently, we just exceeded the historical maximum level of 400 ppm atmospheric ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","109.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":109.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"CO","dir":"ltr","width":"13.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","97.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":97.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","67.75","96.29"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":67.7480011,"y":96.29380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":" and are continuing to add 2–3 ppm a year. If we consider the most stringent ","dir":"ltr","width":"317.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","70.75","97.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.7480011,"y":97.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"mitigation scenario used in the preparation of the forthcoming IPCC Sixth ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","85.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":85.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"Assessment Report, SSP1_19, then we will reach 400 ppm concentrations again in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":73.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"the latter half of the century. Staying below 400 ppm is a prerequisite in the long ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","61.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":61.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"term for remaining below 2 °C or reaching 1.5 °C warming.","dir":"ltr","width":"239.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","49.79"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8580017,"y":49.79380035} {"page":505,"change":"none","str":"M. 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Our ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8610115,"y":585.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C scenario is clearly lower in terms of its CO","dir":"ltr","width":"203.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8610115,"y":573.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","257.33","571.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":257.32818603,"y":571.65979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":" concentrations than the lowest ","dir":"ltr","width":"128.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","260.33","573.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.32818603,"y":573.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"SSP scenario, SSP1_19, for practically the entire twenty-first century (upper panel). 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In Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"151.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","176.87","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":176.86650085,"y":489.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"12.2","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","329.56","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":329.55648803,"y":489.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":", the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"35.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.06","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.05648803,"y":489.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","487.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":487.65979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"equivalence concentrations for the four RCP scenarios, the nine SSP scenarios, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"three scenarios developed in this study are shown. The reference scenario in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":465.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"study is quite similar to both the RCP6.0 and SSP4_60 scenarios, providing a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":453.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"medium-high reference case. The radiative forcing and CO","dir":"ltr","width":"234.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":441.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","288.33","439.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":288.33358764,"y":439.65979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":" equivalence concentra","dir":"ltr","width":"90.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","291.33","441.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":291.33358764,"y":441.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","441.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18359375,"y":441.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"tion of the 2 °C scenario of this study is actually quite closely aligned with the lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","429.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85359954,"y":429.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"SSP1_19 scenario, at least initially until the middle of the second half of this cen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","417.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85359954,"y":417.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","417.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21359252,"y":417.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"tury. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86138916,"y":393.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"However, our lower 1.5 °C scenario first undercuts the radiative forcing trajectory ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86138916,"y":381.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"of the SSP1_19 scenario, but then ends up at a similar radiative forcing level by ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86138916,"y":369.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"2100.","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86138916,"y":357.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86139678,"y":345.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"12.2","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.16","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.16139984,"y":345.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":" shows CO","dir":"ltr","width":"45.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","112.66","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":112.66139984,"y":345.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","157.68","343.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":157.67649841,"y":343.65979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":" equivalence concentrations (upper panel) and radiative ","dir":"ltr","width":"228.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","160.68","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":160.67649841,"y":345.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"forcing (lower panel) of the main scenarios used in IPCC Assessment Reports and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85649871,"y":333.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"this study’s scenarios. The RCP scenarios (shown in thin dotted lines) underlie the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85649871,"y":321.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the so-called ‘SSP scenarios’ provide the main ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85649871,"y":309.15979003} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"basis for the scenarios considered in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. 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Only with net negative emissions can the tem","dir":"ltr","width":"328.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":153.1598053} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","153.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.23181152,"y":153.1598053} {"page":506,"change":"none","str":"perature thermostat of the Earth be dialled back again. 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","dir":"ltr","width":"117.11","height":"5.39","transform":["5.39","0.00","0.00","5.39","90.41","483.38"],"fontName":"PINOUT+TtxjygKfjwmtXcsylrHelvetica","x":90.40738346000016,"y":483.38403697} {"page":509,"change":"none","str":"Fig. 12.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.80","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","392.05"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85828068000016,"y":392.04639048} {"page":509,"change":"none","str":"Global cumulative CO2 emissions – 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"218.95","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","90.40","392.05"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.39978459000017,"y":392.04639048} {"page":509,"change":"none","str":"M. Meinshausen","dir":"ltr","width":"57.15","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","328.36","623.65"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+XngkvvHpcpbfNgdymjTimesLTStd-Roman","x":328.36448338000014,"y":623.6532020100001} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"465","dir":"ltr","width":"12.85","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.65","623.65"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.6505127,"y":623.65332031} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"budget range is the effective central value presented in the recent IPCC Special ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"Report on 1.5 °C warming.","dir":"ltr","width":"108.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","162.20","588.49"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.1974945,"y":588.48980712} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"12.4","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","541.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":541.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"Implications for Temperature and Sea-Level Rise","dir":"ltr","width":"251.72","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","541.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":541.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"This section examines the implications of the three scenarios developed in this ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"study for the probabilistic global mean temperature and sea level rise. Based on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"latest version 7 of the reduced complexity carbon cycle and climate model MAGICC, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"we can derive a range of projections for every scenarios that provides a good mea","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","477.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13830566,"y":477.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"sure of the projection uncertainties over the twenty-first century. We ran this model ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"600 times for each scenario, varying wide ranges of feedback and forcing parame","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","453.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":453.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"ters. For the sea-level rise projections, we used the new sea-level rise module of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"MAGICC7, as described by Nauels et al. (","dir":"ltr","width":"168.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2017","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","221.89","429.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":221.89030456,"y":429.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":") and drove that with our probabilis","dir":"ltr","width":"140.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","241.89","429.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":241.89030456,"y":429.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","429.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":429.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"tic temperature projections. We did not include the recent finding that possible ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"Antarctic ice sheet instability could lead to a much greater sea-level rise this cen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","405.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":405.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"tury. These extra contributions to sea-level rise are also assumed to affect the higher ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"end of the projections for high-emission scenarios, and do not therefore change the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"sea-level rise projections of the lower-emissions scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"234.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"A key question regarding future temperature projections is whether the scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","357.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"will stay below the envisaged 1.5  °C and 2.0  °C warming levels relative to pre-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"industrial levels. When answering this question in terms of the consistency of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, the uncertainty in historical reconstructions of ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"temperatures must play a role. The latest IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C warming ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"estimated from an average of four studies that the difference between early-","dir":"ltr","width":"293.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"industrial ","dir":"ltr","width":"39.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.73","297.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.728302,"y":297.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"(1850–1900) and recent ","dir":"ltr","width":"97.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"surface air ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","151.66","285.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":151.65829467,"y":285.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"temperature levels (2006–2015) was 0.97 °C. If ","dir":"ltr","width":"192.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","195.83","285.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":195.82829284,"y":285.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"we accept here the slightly oversimplified assumption that the 1850–1900 tempera","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","273.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":273.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"ture levels can be equated with pre-industrial temperatures, we can evaluate the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"difference towards a 1.5 °C warming level, namely 0.53 °C. Note that this distance ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"could be shorter—a matter of ongoing scientific debate.","dir":"ltr","width":"222.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"Anyway, the median temperatures for the (lowest) 1.5 °C Scenario in this study ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"do indeed—somewhat by design—reach the 1.5 °C target level by 2100. This means ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"that after a slight overshoot, there will be a 50% chance by 2100 that the global ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"mean temperature is at or below 1.5  °C warming—and without the widespread ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).","dir":"ltr","width":"273.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"1","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","53.86","154.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":154.65989685} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"The IPCC Special Report estimates for a 0.53 °C distance of the 1.5 °C degree target from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"330.78","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","57.32","151.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":57.31779861,"y":151.82940673} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2006–2015 level, a carbon budget of 560 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"163.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","141.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.83340454} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","217.46","140.55"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":217.45689392,"y":140.55439758} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"from 1 January 2018 onwards. Reduced by 100 ","dir":"ltr","width":"165.49","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","222.44","141.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":222.43789672,"y":141.82940673} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"20.31","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","131.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85739898,"y":131.83340454} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","74.16","130.55"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":74.1643982,"y":130.55439758} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"for additional Earth System Feedbacks (see Table ","dir":"ltr","width":"167.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","78.44","131.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":78.43990325,"y":131.82940673} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2.2","dir":"ltr","width":"10.63","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","245.96","131.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":245.96044921,"y":131.82940673} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C) ","dir":"ltr","width":"128.89","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","258.33","131.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.32540893,"y":131.82940673} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"and adding approximately 270 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"129.91","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.85","121.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.84939956,"y":121.83341217} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","183.77","120.55"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.77450561,"y":120.55439758} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"emissions for the period from 2011 to 2017, the central ","dir":"ltr","width":"199.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","189.41","121.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.4099884,"y":121.8293991} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"estimate for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 °C warming as stated by IPCC is approximately ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","111.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86050033,"y":111.83339691} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"730 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"35.76","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","101.84"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86050033,"y":101.83740234} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","89.61","100.55"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":89.61360168,"y":100.55439758} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"from 2011 onwards. This is for a definition of historical warming that is based on a ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.37","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","94.87","101.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.86669921,"y":101.8293991} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"consistent surface air temperature estimate over the land and oceans. A further reduction of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","91.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":91.83339691} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"approximately 150 GtCO","dir":"ltr","width":"86.58","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","81.84"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86270141,"y":81.83740234} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"2.55","height":"5.10","transform":["5.10","0.00","0.00","5.10","140.44","80.55"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.440094,"y":80.55439758} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"would result, if we take into account that the IPCC carbon budget esti","dir":"ltr","width":"237.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","145.20","81.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":145.20010375,"y":81.8293991} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"2.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","382.67","81.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.6730957,"y":81.8293991} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"mate refer to a 1850–1900 early industrial reference period for the 1.5 °C warming, rather than a ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.00","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","71.83"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8590889,"y":71.83339691} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"1750 pre-industrial reference period (which makes approximately a 0.1 °C difference, with +− 0.1 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","61.84"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8590889,"y":61.83739852} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"°C uncertainty). ","dir":"ltr","width":"56.52","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","51.84"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8590889,"y":51.84140014} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"12","dir":"ltr","width":"8.34","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8590889,"y":623.66192626} {"page":510,"change":"none","str":"Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change","dir":"ltr","width":"209.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.70","623.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.69759368,"y":623.66192626} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"466","dir":"ltr","width":"13.12","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"In the case of our 2 °C Scenario, the centric 66% range is almost entirely below ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"the 2 °C warming level, which means that the chance of maintaining temperature ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"change below 2 °C is 80%–85%, in the modelling framework used. This warming ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"level and likelihood fits well with the adapted Paris Agreement target, which shifted ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"from a ‘below 2 °C’ to a ‘well below 2°C’ formulation.","dir":"ltr","width":"221.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"Of course, there are several uncertainties that are not addressed in those probabi","dir":"ltr","width":"316.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","537.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":537.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"listic temperature projections. Therefore, future investigations might shift the ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"estimates for a 50%, lower, or higher chance of staying below 1.5 °C warming level ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"relative to the pre-industrial level.","dir":"ltr","width":"135.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"Figure ","dir":"ltr","width":"28.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"12.4","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","94.30","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":94.2983017,"y":489.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" shows the global mean surface air temperature projections, and their ","dir":"ltr","width":"276.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","111.80","489.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":111.7983017,"y":489.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"66% and 90% ranges, for the three scenarios developed in this study. The reference ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"scenario is shown in red, the 2.0 °C pathway is shown in blue, and the 1.5 °C path","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","465.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18630981,"y":465.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"way is shown in green. For historical temperatures, a mixture between ocean-","dir":"ltr","width":"302.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"surface ","dir":"ltr","width":"30.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","356.74","453.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":356.73831176,"y":453.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"and land-surface air temperatures is shown, namely the HadCRUT4 dataset. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"most recent estimate by the IPCC of the pre-industrial air surface temperature levels ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"is that they were around 0.97 °C below the 2006–2015 levels. The median projec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","417.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17929077,"y":417.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"tions of the three scenarios are shown in thick solid lines.","dir":"ltr","width":"228.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"As a first approximation, the global mean temperature is proportional to the sum ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"of all historical CO","dir":"ltr","width":"78.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","132.20","379.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":132.20480346,"y":379.65979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" emissions. In a similar vein, sea-level rise is the sum over all ","dir":"ltr","width":"253.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","135.20","381.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":135.20480346,"y":381.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"past temperature rises relative to the pre-industrial level. Combining these two ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","369.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85480117,"y":369.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"approximations yields the rule of thumb that sea-level rise is proportional to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","357.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85480117,"y":357.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"double integral of CO","dir":"ltr","width":"90.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85480117,"y":345.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","144.08","343.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.07670593,"y":343.65979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" emissions. Therefore, whereas temperatures are relatively ","dir":"ltr","width":"241.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","147.08","345.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":147.07670593,"y":345.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"agnostic about when CO","dir":"ltr","width":"99.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85670852,"y":333.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","153.00","331.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":152.99909973,"y":331.65979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" emissions occurred, sea-level rise will be higher the lon","dir":"ltr","width":"226.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","156.00","333.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":155.99909973,"y":333.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","333.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17810058,"y":333.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"ger ago the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"60.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85910034,"y":321.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","114.68","319.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":114.67749786,"y":319.65979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" emission occurred.","dir":"ltr","width":"78.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","117.68","321.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":117.67749786,"y":321.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"This proportionality has implications for our scenarios. As we saw previously, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85749816,"y":309.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"our scenarios are relatively low in terms of radiative forcing early in the twenty-first ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":297.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"century compared with the lower scenarios of the SSP and RCP sets. Towards the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":285.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"end of this century, the strongly net negative emissions of the SSP1_19 scenario will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":273.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"cause radiative forcing (and approximate temperature) to be similar under SSP1_19 ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":261.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"and our 1.5 °C scenario. That our scenarios will first entail lower and then similar ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":249.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"forcing and temperature levels suggests that the implied sea-level rise will be lower ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":237.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"for the second half of the twenty-first century and beyond, even though the 2100 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":225.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"temperature level might be similar. ","dir":"ltr","width":"138.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":213.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"This is a clear benefit of our scenarios and should","dir":"ltr","width":"192.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.63","213.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.62748718,"y":213.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"be investigated further in the future.","dir":"ltr","width":"143.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":201.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"Thus, there is clearly an advantage in undertaking concerted early action rather a ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85749816,"y":189.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"slower decline in emissions followed by strong negative emissions. This is impor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":177.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","177.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17749023,"y":177.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"tant. However, in the larger scheme of things, it is clearly a second-order effect. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":165.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"Even under the strongest mitigation scenarios, we cannot expect sea-level rise to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":153.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"stop any time soon. To halt sea-level rise in the 21","dir":"ltr","width":"200.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85749816,"y":141.15979003} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"st","dir":"ltr","width":"4.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","254.20","144.49"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":254.1999054,"y":144.48980712} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" or even the twenty-second cen","dir":"ltr","width":"123.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","258.20","141.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":258.20181274,"y":141.1598053} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","141.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18182373,"y":141.1598053} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"tury, we will require massively negative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"181.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180877,"y":129.1598053} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","234.93","127.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":234.92979431,"y":127.65979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" emissions, drawing back out of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"151.07","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","237.93","129.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":237.92979431,"y":129.1598053} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"atmosphere a lot of the CO","dir":"ltr","width":"107.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85979843,"y":117.15981292} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","161.49","115.66"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":161.48530578,"y":115.65979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":" that we emitted this century. Therefore, even under our ","dir":"ltr","width":"223.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","164.49","117.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":164.48530578,"y":117.15979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"low 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, the expected sea-level rise by 2100 will be above ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":105.15979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"30 cm relative to the 2010 levels—and will continue to rise to 2100 (Fig. ","dir":"ltr","width":"293.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85530853,"y":93.15979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"12.5","dir":"ltr","width":"17.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.20","93.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.20431518,"y":93.15979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","364.70","93.16"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":364.70431518,"y":93.15979766} {"page":511,"change":"none","str":"M. 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Environmental Research ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.22","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","559.80"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86032104,"y":559.79779052} {"page":514,"change":"none","str":"Letters, 8(3), p.034003.","dir":"ltr","width":"80.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","65.86","549.80"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86032104,"y":549.80181884} {"page":514,"change":"none","str":"Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K. and Wigley, T.M., 2017. Synthesizing ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","539.81"],"fontName":"UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85831832,"y":539.80584716} {"page":514,"change":"none","str":"long-term sea level rise projections-the MAGICC sea level model v2. 0. 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Teske (ed.), ","dir":"ltr","width":"50.47","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","46.71"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals","dir":"ltr","width":"156.07","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","104.48","46.71"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":104.48480127999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":", ","dir":"ltr","width":"4.25","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","260.55","46.71"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":260.55331323999997,"y":46.71319961} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_13","dir":"ltr","width":"159.46","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","36.72"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85879801999998,"y":36.71720123} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Chapter 13","dir":"ltr","width":"67.27","height":"14.00","transform":["14.00","0.00","0.00","14.00","53.86","594.03"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":594.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions ","dir":"ltr","width":"166.70","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","576.03"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":576.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"156.00","height":"16.00","transform":["16.00","0.00","0.00","16.00","53.86","558.03"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":558.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent van den Adel, ","dir":"ltr","width":"301.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","522.03"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":522.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Özcan Deniz, Malte Meinshausen, and Damien Giurco","dir":"ltr","width":"232.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","510.03"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":510.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Abstract","dir":"ltr","width":"37.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","373.03"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829828999998,"y":373.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the ","dir":"ltr","width":"292.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.89","373.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":96.88829706999998,"y":373.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"research, with priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","361.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":361.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"chapters. The key findings as well as the research limitations and further research ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":349.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"requirements are given for following topics:","dir":"ltr","width":"175.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":337.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy potential mapping, Transport scenario and long-term energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","325.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829828999998,"y":325.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"scenario development, power sector analysis, employment and mineral resource ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","313.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":313.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"implications for the 2.0C and 1.5C scenarios and non-energy GHG scenarios,","dir":"ltr","width":"309.49","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","301.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":301.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"Policy recommendations for the energy sector with a focus on policies for build","dir":"ltr","width":"316.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","289.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829828999998,"y":289.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","289.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328761,"y":289.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"ings sector decarbonisation, for the transport and industry sector as well as a recom","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","277.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":277.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","277.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828394999995,"y":277.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"mended political framework for power markets are provided.","dir":"ltr","width":"243.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","265.03"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829828999998,"y":265.02770996} {"page":515,"change":"none","str":"S. 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This energy transition must be started immediately and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"without further delay, and concerns energy-producing industry and utilities as well ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"as every energy consumer—from the industry level down to the residential sector. A ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"combination of energy efficiency and the use of renewable energies will involve ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"new business concepts for the energy sector, which will require entirely new poli","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":537.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"cies that provide a new market framework. The implementation of new technologies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"and business concepts will include policy changes on the community level as well ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"as by national governments and international organizations. While the 2.0  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"Scenario allows for a 3–5 years transition period in which to implement policy mea","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":489.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"sures, the 1.5 °C Scenario allows no further delay but requires an immediate start, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"at the latest in 2020. Therefore, the 1.5 °C Scenario presented in this book provides ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"a technical pathway that assumes and allows no political delay, and may therefore ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"be seen as a technical benchmark scenario.","dir":"ltr","width":"171.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"However, this energy transition cannot be seen in isolation. To stay within the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"Paris Agreement Goal requires reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"are greater than can be delivered by the energy transition alone (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"320.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"4","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","374.70","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":374.69830322,"y":405.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"). ","dir":"ltr","width":"8.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","379.70","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":379.69830322,"y":405.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"However, there are technical and logistical limits to how fast new technologies can ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"be implemented. The establishment of efficient transport systems and industry pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1612854,"y":381.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"cesses, or simply the provision of required renewable energy and storage technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":369.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"gies will require a minimum time. Production capacities must increase significantly, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"people must be trained, and existing buildings must be retro-fitted. Infrastructural ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"changes, such as smart power grids, must be planed, construction permits must be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"issued. The energy transition will require political determination and public accep","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15231323,"y":321.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"tance. Therefore, the planning process will require resolute stakeholder involve","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20529174,"y":309.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"ment. Furthermore, a fundamental shift in today’s resource-intensive lifestyles ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"seems unavoidable if we are to limit global warming. In particular, the way con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":285.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"sumption and mobility are organized in developed countries today will challenge ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"planetary boundaries to the extreme if they remain at their current levels.","dir":"ltr","width":"290.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"During the development of the energy scenario pathways, it became clear that ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"even the most ambitious ‘man-on-the-moon’ program—if focussed only on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"energy sector—would not be enough. Therefore, the political framework required to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"implement the Paris Agreement on national levels must also take the land-use sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20431518,"y":213.15977478} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"tor, as well as the main GHGs, methane, N","dir":"ltr","width":"170.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","224.82","199.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":224.81610107,"y":199.6598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"O, and fluorinated gases, into account.","dir":"ltr","width":"153.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","227.82","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":227.81610107,"y":201.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"The following sections present the main findings and lessons of this research proj","dir":"ltr","width":"316.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85610961,"y":189.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15609741,"y":189.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"ect, and highlight its limitations and further research requirements. Finally, we pro","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85610961,"y":177.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21609497,"y":177.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"vide policy recommendations for the energy sector in order to implement the -energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85610961,"y":165.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"scenarios.","dir":"ltr","width":"39.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85610961,"y":153.1598053} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"13.1","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","109.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":109.15979766} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"Findings and Limitations—Modelling","dir":"ltr","width":"193.38","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","109.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":109.15979766} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the research, with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.15979766} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous chapters.","dir":"ltr","width":"317.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.15979766} {"page":516,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"473","dir":"ltr","width":"12.16","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.13","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.13409423,"y":623.65332031} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"13.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Renewable Energy Potential Mapping","dir":"ltr","width":"265.14","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","595.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Various research projects have analysed renewable energy potentials and all have in ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"common that the renewable energy potential exceeded the current and projected ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"energy demands over the next decades by an order of magnitude. However, regional ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"distributions are uneven, and especially in densely populated regions, such as urban ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","531.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"areas, the local renewable energy resource might be unable to supply the demand. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Therefore, renewable energies might have to be transported by power lines or in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"form of gasified or liquid renewable fuels to the demand centre. However, all 10 ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"regions and 75 sub-regions examined had sufficient renewable energy resources to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"meet the regional needs.","dir":"ltr","width":"97.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"13.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","427.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":427.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research—Renewable Energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"277.46","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","427.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":427.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Potential","dir":"ltr","width":"44.02","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","413.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":413.78979492} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"The quality of data varies significantly across the regions and especially detailed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","385.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":385.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"high-resolution surveys have their limits. Due to the limited available data, detailed ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","373.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":373.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"mapping of the Eurasia region—especially for Russia and parts of central Asian ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","361.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":361.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"countries—was not possible. Therefore, in this case, we relied on research published ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":349.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"in the scientific literature. Onshore wind data were generally only available for 80 m ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"above the ground, whereas no data for 100–120  m were available in most cases. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"However, modern wind turbines operate at those higher levels and wind resources ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","313.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":313.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"are generally better at these elevations. Therefore, further research is required using ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","301.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":301.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"open source data for onshore and offshore wind data at the 100 m level.","dir":"ltr","width":"284.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":289.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"13.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","245.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":245.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Transport Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"173.47","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","245.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":245.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Transport modelling has shown that the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C pathways can be met ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","217.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":217.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"when strong and determined measures are taken, starting immediately. They include ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"rapid electrification across passenger and freight transport modes, a shift towards ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"more energy-efficient transport modes, and a build-up of biomass and synfuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"capacities for the transport modes that are less inclined towards electrification due ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"to range or constructional constraints, as is the case in aviation. In the road sub-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"sector, which is the most relevant emission source in the transport area, battery ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles must be widely introduced, which will also ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"require a stringent parallel build-up of recharging and refuelling infrastructures.","dir":"ltr","width":"318.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","121.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":121.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"In general, we found that beyond pure technical measures with regard to pow","dir":"ltr","width":"316.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","109.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":109.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","109.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":109.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"ertrain shifts and overall efficiency enhancements, fundamental changes in today’s ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","97.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":97.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"mobility patterns will also be required to meet the 2.0 °C Scenario, and even more ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","85.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":85.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"so for the 1.5 °C pathway. This will apply particularly to the car use habits in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":73.79379272} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"OECD countries. In essence, definite limitations on transport activities and modal ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","61.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":61.7937889} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":517,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"474","dir":"ltr","width":"11.75","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"shifts towards mainly buses and railways in some world regions and sub-sectors will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"be required to meet the Paris goals. However, the Non-OECD world regions will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"mainly increase their overall transport activity until 2050. The 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"transport scenario pathways will not be achieved automatically, but will require ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"long-sighted infrastructural and transport policy framework settings on both inter- ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"and intra-governmental levels.","dir":"ltr","width":"121.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"13.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","493.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research ","dir":"ltr","width":"172.58","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","493.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"Requirement—Transport","dir":"ltr","width":"124.91","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","479.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":479.15579223} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"The statistical databases for several world regions on transport activities and fleet ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","451.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":451.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"and powertrain shares are limited, and in those cases, projections, conclusions by ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","439.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":439.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"analogy, and estimations were required in our modelling. Therefore, further studies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","427.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":427.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"should focus on enhancing these databases and specify the modelling in more detail, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","415.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":415.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"which could also include case studies of countries instead of regions, to better ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","403.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":403.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"address spatial particularities in the transport models. Detailed investigations of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","391.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":391.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"mode shift potentials, based on infrastructure capacity constraints, were considered ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","379.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":379.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"to some extent, but deserve more in-depth modelling in future works. Further ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","367.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":367.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"research is required to refine the coupling of renewable energy potentials, transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","355.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":355.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"infrastructure upgrades, and the expansion of on-board energy storage usage.","dir":"ltr","width":"307.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","343.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":343.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"13.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","299.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":299.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Long-Term Energy Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"219.13","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","299.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":299.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0 °C and the 1.5 °C scenarios both represent ambitious pathways that require ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","271.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":271.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"fundamental changes in current energy consumption and supply. The key strategies ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","259.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":259.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"of these pathways are the implementation of renewable energy technologies and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","247.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":247.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"efficiency improvements in all sectors. The electrification of the transport and heat","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","235.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":235.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","235.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":235.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"ing sectors and the diversification of supply technologies are core elements of both ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","223.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":223.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"alternative scenarios. Besides numerous technical and structural improvements, ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","211.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":211.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"behavioural changes among end-users and major changes in investment activities ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.02","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","199.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":199.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"and strategies must be achieved. This applies, for example, to the per capita electric","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","187.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":187.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","187.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15029907,"y":187.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"ity consumption (electric appliances without heating) of ‘residential and other sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","175.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":175.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","175.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":175.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"tors’, which will decrease in OECD countries by one third between 2015 and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"2050 in the 1.5 °C Scenario, but will grows in the non-OECD regions by only 70% ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"in the same period. This could imply limitations on personal consumption compared ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"with today’s standards, particularly in OECD countries—at least for as long as fos","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","127.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":127.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"sil fuels still play a significant role. Another example is the final energy demand per ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"$GDP in the ‘Industry’ sector, which will decrease by 65% in OECD regions and by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":103.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"80% in non-OECD regions, an ambitious pathway that will require stringent ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.15979003} {"page":518,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"475","dir":"ltr","width":"11.83","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.33","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.32958984,"y":623.65332031} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"technology change and replacement strategies and supporting regulatory and gover","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":597.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"nance measures to trigger huge investments for its realization.","dir":"ltr","width":"247.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"On the energy supply side, considerable contributions in the future are assumed ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"from wind and solar power, electrification and synthetic fuel use in transport and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"heating, sustainable biomass use, especially for co-generation and biofuels, and dis","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":549.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"trict heating systems that integrate solar, geothermal, and ambient heat potentials. ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"The exploitation of renewable energy potentials depends strongly on regional con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18231201,"y":525.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"ditions. In regions such as India and China, a 100% renewable electricity supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"will require the extensive use of existing potentials. The global installed capacities ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"of renewable power generation technologies will increase by a factor of more than ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"12, from 2000 GW in 2015 to more than 25,000 GW in 2050. Cumulative invest","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328857,"y":477.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"ments for power generation are estimated to increase between 2015 and 2050 by up ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"to around US$ 50,000 billion compared with around US$20000 billion in the refer","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":453.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"ence case. Fuel cost savings could offset around 90% of the additional investment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"costs as consequence of the fossil fuel phase-out and reductions in demand, but ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"without considering the additional infrastructure demands of the transition arising ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"from grid expansion, storage, and other flexibility demands. In the scenarios, large-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"scale and long-range electricity transport between Europe and the MENA countries ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"is assumed to be a possible and promising example of supra-regional exchange ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"between regions of production and regions of demand. Many of these import/export ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"relationships must also be realized among countries ","dir":"ltr","width":"207.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"within","dir":"ltr","width":"25.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","261.04","357.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":261.03829956,"y":357.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":" individual world regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"101.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","286.05","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":286.04830932,"y":357.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"(which are thus not resolved in our model) to increase the security and cost-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"efficiency of the energy supply. Decentralization and digitalization, but also the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"efficient implementation of new respectively the expansion of existing central infra","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":321.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"structures, are other implicit core elements of the scenario narratives. The large-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"scale generation and use of synthetic fuels are expected to play key roles in the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"deep-decarbonisation scenario, at least if the intensity of today’s freight transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"and air traffic is to be maintained, despite the huge energy losses this option will ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"have. Both alternative scenarios, especially the 1.5  °C Scenario, require a rapid ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"reduction in the final energy demand and, as far as possible, stagnation in the strong ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"global growth in the demand for energy services, at least for as long as fossil ener","dir":"ltr","width":"328.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":237.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"gies dominate the energy supply structures.","dir":"ltr","width":"173.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"Besides the structural similarities between both the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"one main difference between them is the rate of transformation: To maintain the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"average global temperature increase due to climate change below 1.5 °C, the trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":189.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"formation must be accomplished as fast as technically possible. The trend in increas","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16030883,"y":177.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"ing global energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"118.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","172.64","163.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":172.6387024,"y":163.6598053} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":" emissions must be reversed as soon as possible (in ","dir":"ltr","width":"213.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","175.64","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":175.6387024,"y":165.1598053} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"the early 2020s, at the latest) and emissions must be reduced by 70% in 2035 and by ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":153.1598053} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"85% in 2040 (compared with emission levels in 1990). Every single year without ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":141.1598053} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"significant emission reductions on the global level will dramatically reduce our ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":129.1598053} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"chance to confine global warming to 1.5  °C.  In contrast, in the 2.0  °C Scenario, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":117.15979766} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"emission reductions in 2035 may be in the order of 40% and 65% in 2040, leaving ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":105.15979766} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"a little more time for the transition process.","dir":"ltr","width":"172.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8586998,"y":93.15979766} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":519,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"476","dir":"ltr","width":"12.04","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"13.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","dir":"ltr","width":"248.59","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","595.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"Long-Term Energy Scenario","dir":"ltr","width":"141.56","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","581.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":581.78979492} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"The 1.5  °C Scenario may seem more difficult than similarly ambitious scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","553.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":553.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"that were made 10 to even 20 years ago. However, the opportunities to respond to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","541.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":541.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"climate change have been largely wasted in the last two decades, and all transition ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","529.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":529.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"processes have faced huge obstacles in the past due to the inertia and conflicting ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","517.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":517.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"aims of societies, governments, and most relevant stakeholders. Too often, more ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","505.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":505.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"attention has been paid to doubters than to facts. Therefore, the scenarios also show ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","493.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":493.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"that the longer the governments wait, the more difficult it will be to prevent severe ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","481.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":481.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"climate damage and the greater will be the technical and economic challenges that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","469.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":469.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"will be encountered in the energy system transformation.","dir":"ltr","width":"227.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","457.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":457.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"The coarse regional resolution of such global scenarios does not allow sufficient ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","445.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":445.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"account to be taken of sub-regional differences in energy demand and the character","dir":"ltr","width":"328.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","433.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":433.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","433.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":433.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"istic and favourable possibilities of sustainable supply. However, it can provide ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","421.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":421.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"rather fundamental insight into basic technical and structural possibilities and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","409.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":409.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"requirements of a target-oriented pathway. Our results clearly reveal and quantita","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","397.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":397.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","397.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21728515,"y":397.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"tively describe that the coming years will be most critical regarding a successful ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","385.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":385.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"energy transition because for both parts of the energy transition—efficiency ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","373.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":373.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"improvement/demand reduction and the implementation of new technologies—","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","361.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":361.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"huge investments and fundamental changes in producing, distributing, and consum","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","349.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":349.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","349.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":349.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"ing energy will be needed. Such transformation processes must be analysed and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","337.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":337.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"planned carefully under the complex economic and societal framework conditions ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","325.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":325.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"of each region, down to the country, sub-country, and community levels. Such anal","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","313.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":313.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","313.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":313.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"yses can then form the basis for the further investigation of the economic implica","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","301.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":301.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","301.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":301.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"tions of these pathways.","dir":"ltr","width":"96.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","289.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":289.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"Another limitation of this approach is that the economic, technical, and market ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","277.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":277.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"assumptions made probably have limited consistency. Carbon, fuel, and technology ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","265.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":265.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"costs are assumed independently of the assumptions regarding overall economic ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","253.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":253.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"development and the final energy demand. It also remains unclear to what extent the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","241.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":241.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"energy transition will change the overall material demand and activity of the manu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","229.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":229.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","229.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":229.79382324} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"facturing industry. Furthermore, which economic framework conditions and market ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","217.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":217.79380798} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"mechanisms will be necessary for rapid decarbonisation remain largely unclear, as ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","205.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":205.79380798} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"is whether the current market mechanisms are capable of supporting the fundamen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.79380798} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","193.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19729614,"y":193.79380798} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"tal paradigm shift of this target-oriented energy transition.","dir":"ltr","width":"231.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.79380798} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"13.1.7","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","137.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":137.79379272} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"186.72","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","137.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":137.79379272} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"Although there are significant differences across all the regions and sub-regions ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","109.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":109.79380035} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"analysed, there are some similarities:","dir":"ltr","width":"148.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","97.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":97.79380035} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"Increasing loads: The loads in all regions will increase significantly between 2020 ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.79380035} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"and 2050, due to increased electrification of the transport and, to some extent, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","67.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":67.79380035} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"heating sectors. Higher loads will require the adaptation of power-lines and ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","55.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":55.79380035} {"page":520,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"477","dir":"ltr","width":"12.26","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.03","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.02960205,"y":623.65332031} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"transformer stations, especially on distribution grids where electric vehicles are ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":597.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"most likely to be charged.","dir":"ltr","width":"103.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":585.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Increasing reverse power flows: Almost all regions will have periods of negative ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"residual load, when generation is higher than the required load within a specific ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":561.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"period of time. This leads to reversed power flow, and the generated electricity ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"must be transported to other regions. The dominant power-generation technolo","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":537.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":537.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"gies are wind and solar photovoltaic (PV). Solar PV is mainly connected to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"distribution grid and export requires that the electricity must be able to flow from ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":513.1597900300001} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"low- to medium-voltage levels, which requires adaptation at transformer ","dir":"ltr","width":"326.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":501.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"stations.","dir":"ltr","width":"33.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Ratio between maximum variable generation capacity and maximum load:","dir":"ltr","width":"312.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":" The ","dir":"ltr","width":"23.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.90","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.89828491,"y":477.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"results presented in Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"111.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"8","dir":"ltr","width":"5.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","177.24","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":177.2382965,"y":465.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":" suggest that a ratio of 180% variable renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"207.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.24","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.2382965,"y":465.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"capacity to the maximum load represents the optimum relationship. If the capac","dir":"ltr","width":"316.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":453.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"ity were higher, short-term peaks would appear more frequently, which would ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":441.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"lead to higher curtailment, or high storage and transmission demands. Example: ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"The maximum load of a region is 100 GW and the installed capacity of wind and ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":417.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"solar PV combined is 180 GW. Short-term peaks are relatively rare, and curtail","dir":"ltr","width":"316.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2163086,"y":405.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"ment is below 10% of the total annual generation potential. If the variable power ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":393.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"generation were above 200 GW, while the load remained at 100 GW, the curtail","dir":"ltr","width":"316.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.23","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.22729492,"y":381.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"ment rates would increase significantly, to 15% and higher.","dir":"ltr","width":"235.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":369.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Technology variety reduces storage demand: The combination of solar PV and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"leads to a lower storage demand than does a solar- or wind-dominated supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"scenario. The relative interaction between the available wind and solar resources, ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"not just in regard to day and night, but also seasonally, will reduce the storage ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":321.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"demand in all regions. Therefore, the levelized cost of electricity generation can","dir":"ltr","width":"316.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18530273,"y":309.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"not be seen in isolation. Even if, for example, wind is more expensive than solar ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"PV in one region, a combination of wind and solar will lead to a reduction in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":285.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"storage demand and lower systems costs.","dir":"ltr","width":"164.17","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":273.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Variety in storage technology and sector coupling: The combination of battery and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"hydro pump storage technology and the conversion of the gas sector to hydrogen ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":249.15977478000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"and synthetic fuels will be beneficial. The hydrogen produced can be used for the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":237.15977478000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"management of demand, and hydrogen-fuelled power plants can provide valu","dir":"ltr","width":"316.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":225.15977478000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"able dispatch services.","dir":"ltr","width":"89.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"13.1.8","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","169.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":169.15980530000004} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","dir":"ltr","width":"248.59","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","169.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":169.15980530000004} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Power Sector Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"109.15","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","155.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":155.15580750000007} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Measured load curves for regions, countries, or states/provinces are often unavail","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","127.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17630004,"y":127.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"able and, in some countries, are even classified information. Therefore, it was not ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"always possible to compare the calculated loads with actual current actual. However, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.57","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","103.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":103.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"the comparison of 2020 calculations with current maximum loads for regions and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"countries with published data showed that the calculations were within a  ±  10% ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"range. However, verification was not possible for several regions. Therefore, our ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.26","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","67.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":67.15979766000005} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"analysis may over- or underestimate the current loads and therefore the future ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","55.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":55.159801480000056} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":521,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"478","dir":"ltr","width":"12.13","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"projections of loads as well. Therefore, the optimal ratio of maximum load to ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.09","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"installed variable capacity requires further research.","dir":"ltr","width":"206.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"More research is also required to verify the thesis of an optimal ratio between the ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"variable generation and maximum load, because the sample size of this study was ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"not sufficient to ensure validity. Furthermore, the optimal mix of solar and wind ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"requires better meteorological data and actual measured load profiles. Access to ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.45","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"more detailed data to calculate more case studies is vital to determining the possible ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"optimal combination of wind and solar.","dir":"ltr","width":"157.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"13.1.9","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","469.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":469.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Non-energy Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"187.90","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","469.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":469.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"The key finding of the land-use-related emission scenarios is that a dedicated con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":441.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"certed effort to sequester carbon by reforestation and forest restoration could re-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"establish the terrestrial carbon stock of pre-industrial times. That would undoubtedly ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"come with multiple co-benefits, but would not be without challenges. After all, there ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"is a reason why humans in the various corners of the planet pursued deforestation, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"whether for short-term and short-sighted gains or to establish agricultural areas that ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"fed an increasing population. Therefore, land-use conflicts and trade offs are an ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"inherent part of future mitigation actions, whether CO","dir":"ltr","width":"217.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","270.86","355.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.85769653,"y":355.65979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":" sequestration is pursued by ","dir":"ltr","width":"114.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":273.85769653,"y":357.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"reforestation sequestration or by some biomass and CCS use. Nevertheless, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85770034,"y":345.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"important result of this study is that the addition of land-use CO","dir":"ltr","width":"262.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85770034,"y":333.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","316.50","331.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":316.50338745,"y":331.65979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":" and other GHG ","dir":"ltr","width":"69.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","319.50","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":319.50338745,"y":333.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"emission pathways to energy-related scenarios yields scenarios that stay below or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":321.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"get below 1.5 °C warming without a reliance on massive net negative CO","dir":"ltr","width":"290.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8533783,"y":309.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","344.63","307.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.62850952,"y":307.65979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":" emission ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","347.63","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":347.62850952,"y":309.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"potentials towards the second half of this century.","dir":"ltr","width":"197.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85850143,"y":297.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"Going beyond the land-use CO","dir":"ltr","width":"123.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85849761,"y":285.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","189.71","283.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":189.71290588,"y":283.65979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":" emission pathways that we sketched for a series ","dir":"ltr","width":"195.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","192.71","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":192.71290588,"y":285.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"of sequestration options, we also designed trajectories for all the other GHGs and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":273.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"aerosols. An unprecedented wealth of scenario information is now available thanks ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":261.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"to the recent concerted efforts of the larger integrated assessment community. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":249.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"Designing a novel method here, the Generalized Quantile Walk method, we were ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":237.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"able to distil non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"87.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86289978,"y":225.15979003} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","141.36","223.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":141.36430358,"y":223.6598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":" pathways from this rich scenario database—in a way that ","dir":"ltr","width":"244.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","144.36","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":144.36430358,"y":225.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"respects the correlations and dependencies between energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"287.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.85","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85430908,"y":213.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","341.09","211.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":341.0914917,"y":211.6598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":" and other ","dir":"ltr","width":"44.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","344.09","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":344.0914917,"y":213.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"gas emissions. This is not only a new methodological advance in scenario research, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148071,"y":201.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"but also key to the proper estimation of the climate effects of the energy-related CO","dir":"ltr","width":"328.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86148071,"y":189.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","382.51","187.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.5118103,"y":187.6598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"scenarios designed in the main part of this study.","dir":"ltr","width":"194.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86180114,"y":177.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"13.1.10","dir":"ltr","width":"36.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","133.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":133.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","dir":"ltr","width":"248.59","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","133.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":133.1598053} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"Non-energy Scenarios","dir":"ltr","width":"110.33","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","119.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":119.15579986} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"There are a number of limitations associated with the derived non-energy-related ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","91.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":91.15979766} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"emission trajectories. Possibly the most important opportunity for future research ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","79.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":79.15979766} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"will involve a more fine-grained look at land-use-based sequestration options in ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","67.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":67.15979766} {"page":522,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"479","dir":"ltr","width":"12.18","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.11","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.1137085,"y":623.65332031} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"various countries and biomes. This study assumed only a rather coarse approxima","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14230346,"y":597.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"tion of the available land areas, sequestration rates, and cumulative changes in land ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"carbon stocks to estimate the potential and time trajectories of those reforestation, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"forest restoration, agroforestry, and other land-based sequestration options.","dir":"ltr","width":"299.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"In terms of the non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"96.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","162.68","547.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":162.67619323,"y":547.65979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":" emission trajectories, this study relied heavily on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"223.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","165.68","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":165.67619323,"y":549.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"collective wisdom embodied within a large set of literature-reported scenarios. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85618972,"y":537.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"Although we have designed probably the most advanced method to distil that ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85618972,"y":525.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"knowledge into emission trajectories that are consistent with our energy-related ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85618972,"y":513.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"pathways, this meta-analytical approach is not without its limitations. In particular, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.14","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85618972,"y":501.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"a bottom-up energy-system and land-use/agricultural model must be able to esti","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85618972,"y":489.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19519042,"y":489.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"mate methane and N","dir":"ltr","width":"86.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85618972,"y":477.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","140.74","475.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":140.74090576,"y":475.65979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"O emissions from various agricultural activities in a more ","dir":"ltr","width":"245.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","143.74","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":143.74090576,"y":477.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"coherent way, which could provide results on a regional level. Such regionally and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8609085,"y":465.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"sectorally specific information would, in turn, allow the examination of various ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8609085,"y":453.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"mitigation options for non-CO","dir":"ltr","width":"125.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8609085,"y":441.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","179.09","439.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":179.0861969,"y":439.65979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":" emissions. This bottom-up modelling capacity is ","dir":"ltr","width":"207.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","182.09","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":182.0861969,"y":441.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"missing from our meta-analytical approach.","dir":"ltr","width":"174.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85620117,"y":429.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"13.1.11","dir":"ltr","width":"36.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","385.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":385.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Employment Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"184.69","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","385.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":385.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"The occupational employment analysis was developed in 2018 to improve the data","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":357.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"base for the ‘just transition’ concept. Not only is the number of jobs that will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"created or lost as a result of a global or regional energy transition important, but also ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"the specific occupations that will be to develop a socially sound transition. This ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"analysis breaks new grounds because very little information has been available. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"However, the results indicate that even within the seven occupation types, job losses ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"are the exception and almost all trades will gain more jobs.","dir":"ltr","width":"235.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"Very specialized jobs, such as machine operators in coal mines, will be lost and ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"there will be no replacement. Therefore, a detailed analysis of all sectors is required ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"to identify those highly specialized tasks and to develop re-training possibilities.","dir":"ltr","width":"320.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"13.1.12","dir":"ltr","width":"36.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","205.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","dir":"ltr","width":"248.59","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","205.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":205.1598053} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"Employment Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"107.12","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","191.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":191.1558075} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"The data available on the detailed employment requirements for renewable energies ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","163.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":163.1598053} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"are very limited. Although there are some data for solar PV and onshore and off","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","151.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":151.1598053} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","151.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21530151,"y":151.1598053} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"shore wind, there are almost none for concentrated solar power plants or geothermal ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","139.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":139.1598053} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"energy. Furthermore, occupational surveys of the heating and energy efficiency sec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","127.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","127.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":127.15979766} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"tors are required.","dir":"ltr","width":"68.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","115.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":115.15979766} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":523,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"480","dir":"ltr","width":"12.92","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"13.1.13","dir":"ltr","width":"36.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","595.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Key Findings—Mineral Resource Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"211.14","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","595.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":595.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Lithium sees the highest projected increase from mined ore of around 40 times cur","dir":"ltr","width":"328.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","567.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","567.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":567.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"rent production to above 80 times current production should future technologies be ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","555.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"introduced without recycling.","dir":"ltr","width":"117.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","543.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":543.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Cumulative primary lithium demand by 2050 for the majority of scenarios is ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","531.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":531.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"above current reserves of lithium except for the “potential recycling” scenario but ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","519.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":519.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"less than known resources. The scenarios anticipate a scale up in resource explora","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","507.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","507.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18328857,"y":507.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"tion, discovery and production for primary resources to meet demand—assuming ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","495.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":495.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"lithium-ion batteries continue to dominate as the chemistry of choice. It is important ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","483.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"that future mines be responsibly developed and that battery designs be compatible ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.55","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","471.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":471.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"with circular-economy thinking. Significant infrastructure for reuse and recycling ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","459.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":459.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"will need to be developed to achieve high rates of lithium recycling.","dir":"ltr","width":"271.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","447.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":447.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"For cobalt, future scenarios exceed currently known reserves and approach cur","dir":"ltr","width":"316.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","435.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":435.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","435.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":435.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"rently known resources in 2050. Given the concentrated supply source from the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","423.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":423.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Democratic Republic of Congo, this will continue to keep pressure on exploring ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","411.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":411.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"alternative battery chemistries and on increasing cobalt recycling. Attention must ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":399.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"continue to be paid to reducing the social and environmental impacts of supply ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":387.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"whilst supporting development noting the significant adverse impacts on human and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":375.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"environmental health associated with cobalt mining. While the value of cobalt in EV ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":363.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"battery recycling is already an important component of the recycling economics ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","351.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":351.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"because of supply limitations, the social and environmental challenges provide a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","339.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":339.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"further driver for increasing recycling.","dir":"ltr","width":"153.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","327.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":327.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"For silver, the potential of materials efficiency (using less silver per GW solar PV ","dir":"ltr","width":"321.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","315.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829162,"y":315.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"panel) has potential to reduce demand owing to the long lifetimes of PV panels. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","303.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":303.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Under some scenarios using future technology with recycling, the levels of silver ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","291.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":291.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"demand are similar to current production.","dir":"ltr","width":"166.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","279.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829162,"y":279.79382324} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"13.1.14","dir":"ltr","width":"36.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","235.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":235.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","dir":"ltr","width":"248.59","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","235.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":235.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Mineral Resource Analysis","dir":"ltr","width":"133.57","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","101.86","221.79"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":101.85829925,"y":221.78979492} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"This study focuses only on the metal demand for renewable energy (generation and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","193.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":193.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"storage) and transport and does not consider other demands for these metals. ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","181.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":181.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"However, it is expected that with the increase in renewable energy, renewable energy ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","169.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":169.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"technologies will consume a greater share of these metals and it is anticipated that ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","157.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":157.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"this growth will have significant influence on overall market dynamics, including ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","145.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":145.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"influencing prices, which may feedback to efforts to reduce material intensity and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","133.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":133.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"invest in reuse and recycling infrastructure.","dir":"ltr","width":"172.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","121.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":121.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"Promoting the transition to circular economy for both renewable energy and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","109.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":109.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"resource cycles; and adopting a systems view that considers available supply as well ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","97.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":97.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"as social and environmental factors is critically important. To support sustainable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.95","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","85.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":85.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"development goals, both the primary and secondary sources of the resources ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","73.79"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":73.79379272} {"page":524,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"481","dir":"ltr","width":"12.05","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","373.09","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":373.08990478,"y":623.65332031} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"required to underpin this renewable energy transformation needs to be stewarded as ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"the supply chains develop. The high total demand requirements for energy metals, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"demonstrates the importance of redesigning technologies and systems to eliminate ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.43","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"the adverse social and environmental supply chain impacts, to promote long-life ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"products, and to actively encourage efficient material use in both energy and trans","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":549.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"port sectors.","dir":"ltr","width":"48.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"13.2","dir":"ltr","width":"21.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","493.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"Policy Recommendations by Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"180.07","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","86.86","493.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":86.85829925,"y":493.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"To implement the 2.0 °C or 1.5 °C Scenario will require a significant shift in current ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"policies. This section documents the policy measures that have been assumed for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"the scenarios presented in the previous chapters, as well as policy measures known ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"to be successful. The global legal frameworks and regulations differ significantly on ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"national and community levels. Therefore, only the functions and aims of suggested ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"policy measures can be discussed, but not how they can be integrated into current ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"jurisdictions. That said, it is assumed that the Paris Agreement will be the global ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"basis.","dir":"ltr","width":"22.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1","dir":"ltr","width":"30.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","53.86","337.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":53.85829925,"y":337.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"Energy","dir":"ltr","width":"36.00","height":"12.00","transform":["12.00","0.00","0.00","12.00","95.86","337.16"],"fontName":"QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic","x":95.85829925,"y":337.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"The energy sector is not a homogeneous sector but is highly diverse. Therefore, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"policy measures can follow different strategies and can address different aspects and ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"stakeholders. The supply side can be divided into the main sub-sectors of electricity, ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"heating, and fuel supply. The demand side can be broken down further into build","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15130615,"y":273.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"ings, industry, and transport. However, because all these sub-sectors are directly or ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"indirectly connected via resources and energy markets, policy interventions can ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"have different effects.","dir":"ltr","width":"86.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"The basic principles for the development of the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":225.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"derive from the long-term experiences with scenario development of the authorship ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.05","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"team, and have led to a ‘seven-step logic’.","dir":"ltr","width":"167.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"This logic extends from the definition of the final state of the energy systems in ","dir":"ltr","width":"322.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":189.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"the long-term future to the key drivers of the energy demand and the energy effi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15631103,"y":177.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"ciency potentials, a technological analysis of supply and demand and the market ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"development potential, and the specific policy measures required to implement a ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"theoretical concept in the real market-place.","dir":"ltr","width":"175.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"The seven steps are:","dir":"ltr","width":"80.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":129.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"1.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","111.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":111.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"Define the maximum carbon budget and other targets, milestones, and con","dir":"ltr","width":"315.80","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","111.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":111.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","111.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":111.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"straints to achieve the climate goal;","dir":"ltr","width":"140.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","99.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":99.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"2.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","87.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":87.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"Define the renewable energy resource potentials and limits within a space-","dir":"ltr","width":"319.18","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","87.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":87.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"constrained environment;","dir":"ltr","width":"101.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","75.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":75.15979003} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":525,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"482","dir":"ltr","width":"12.66","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"3.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Identify the economic and societal drivers of demand;","dir":"ltr","width":"215.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"4.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Define the efficiency potentials and energy intensities by energy service and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"sector;","dir":"ltr","width":"26.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"5.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Establish time lines and narratives for the technology implementation on the ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"end-user and supply sides;","dir":"ltr","width":"105.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"6.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Estimate the infrastructure needs, generation costs, and other effects;","dir":"ltr","width":"275.24","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"7.","dir":"ltr","width":"7.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Identify the required policies and discuss the policy options.","dir":"ltr","width":"240.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","66.36","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":66.35829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1.1","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"General Energy 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The most impor","dir":"ltr","width":"328.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":429.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"tant interventions to accelerate the energy transition are:","dir":"ltr","width":"224.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","399.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy targets and incentives for their deployment and expansion;","dir":"ltr","width":"309.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","399.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":399.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","387.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Internalization of external costs by carbon tax or surcharge;","dir":"ltr","width":"237.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","387.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":387.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","375.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":375.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies;","dir":"ltr","width":"134.44","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","375.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":375.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"•","dir":"ltr","width":"3.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","363.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Accelerated replacement of fossil and inefficient technologies.","dir":"ltr","width":"249.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","363.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":363.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Renewable energy targets are vital to accelerate the deployment of renewable ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"energy. Experiences of the past two decades clearly show the effectiveness of renew","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":333.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"able energy policy development. The Renewable Policy Network for the 21st ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Century (REN21) states in their annual market analysis, Renewables 2018, that ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"“Targets remain one of the primary means for policy makers to express their com","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13729858,"y":297.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"mitment to renewable energy deployment. Targets are enacted for economy-wide ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.08","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"energy development as well as for specific sectors” (REN21-GSR-","dir":"ltr","width":"261.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","315.49","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":315.48831176,"y":273.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"). To achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"51.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","335.49","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":335.48831176,"y":273.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"these goals, innovation processes must be initiated, markets developed, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"337.63","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"investment stimulated. For the latter, auctions and feed-in tariffs have proven suit","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15631103,"y":249.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"able. It is important in this context to guarantee investment security and to enable ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.73","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"long-term but appropriate revenues.","dir":"ltr","width":"142.70","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Climate change leads to a number of types of environmental damage. Carbon ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"emissions lead to climate change. Therefore, it is vital to put a price on carbon to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"internalize the external costs. Carbon-pricing schemes can be established as ","dir":"ltr","width":"313.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"cap-","dir":"ltr","width":"17.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","367.72","189.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":367.71829223,"y":189.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"and-","dir":"ltr","width":"18.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"trade","dir":"ltr","width":"20.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","72.19","177.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":72.18830108,"y":177.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":" schemes or taxes. Carbon pricing is not sufficient on its own to achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"295.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","93.15","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":93.14830017,"y":177.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"the objective of the Paris Agreement, and many leading international agencies and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.47","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"institutions argue that a much more concerted and widespread global take-up of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"carbon pricing will be necessary (Carbon Tracker ","dir":"ltr","width":"198.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","251.97","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":251.9683075,"y":141.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"). To make carbon pricing an ","dir":"ltr","width":"115.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","271.97","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":271.96829223,"y":141.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"efficient measure, the price of carbon must be sufficient to reflect the environmental ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"damage it causes and it must be reliable. Therefore, a minimum price should be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"implemented to provide planning security.","dir":"ltr","width":"168.91","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"Subsidies of fossil fuels counteract any efforts to make energy efficiency and ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","93.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"renewable energy competitive. According to the International Energy Agency, the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.82","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"total amount of global fossil fuel subsidies was estimated to be around US$260 bil","dir":"ltr","width":"328.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.17","69.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.16830444,"y":69.1597824} {"page":526,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"483","dir":"ltr","width":"12.61","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.81","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.81030273,"y":623.65332031} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"lion in 2016 (IEA-DB ","dir":"ltr","width":"95.87","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","149.73","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":149.728302,"y":597.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"). The governments of the G20 and the Asia-Pacific ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","169.73","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":169.728302,"y":597.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Economic Cooperation (APEC) reached an agreement to “","dir":"ltr","width":"231.13","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"rationalize and phase out ","dir":"ltr","width":"102.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","284.99","585.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":284.98928833,"y":585.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","573.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":382.18829345,"y":573.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"sumption","dir":"ltr","width":"36.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"” (OECD-IEA ","dir":"ltr","width":"59.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","90.53","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":90.52829742,"y":561.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","150.51","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":150.50830078,"y":561.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":").","dir":"ltr","width":"5.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","170.51","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":170.50830078,"y":561.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Setting legally binding national targets for 100% renewable energy pathways ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"will lead to an orderly phase-out of fossil fuels. This is vital in planning the socio-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"economic effects of the energy transition (see Chap. ","dir":"ltr","width":"216.58","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"10","dir":"ltr","width":"10.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","270.44","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":270.44229125,"y":525.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"). Supporting measures to ","dir":"ltr","width":"108.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","280.44","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":280.44229125,"y":525.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"achieve the replacement of fossil and inefficient technologies and energy sources ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"will be necessary because targets and economic incentives may not be sufficient in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"all areas. Regulatory interventions for the decommissioning and replacement of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"facilities are a way to stop opposing business scenarios and to overcome the inertia ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"of consumers and investors. Moreover, economic policy measures and the clearer ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"definitions and stringent enforcement of international standards will accelerate the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"implementation of the best available technologies in the industry.","dir":"ltr","width":"260.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Both a minimum price on carbon and the immediate phase-out of fossil fuel ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","429.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":429.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"subsidies must be implemented in order to support the global energy transition. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.53","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Policy support for technology innovation is another important measure to create the ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.93","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"basis for the energy transition processes.","dir":"ltr","width":"162.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1.2","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Policies for Buildings Sector Decarbonisation","dir":"ltr","width":"192.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","357.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"To reduce the energy demands of existing building stock and new buildings, con","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21829223,"y":333.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"stantly most stringent energy demand standards (= ","dir":"ltr","width":"219.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"building energy codes","dir":"ltr","width":"92.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","273.17","321.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":273.16830444,"y":321.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":") are ","dir":"ltr","width":"24.90","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","365.28","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":365.2782898,"y":321.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"required for all building types and across all countries. The goal must be to achieve ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"(near) zero-energy buildings, so that each building reduces its heating and cooling ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"demand to the lowest possible level and aims to supply the remaining energy with ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.46","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"on-site renewable energy technologies, such as solar collectors, electric heaters, ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"advanced bioenergy and heat pumps, or with low-temperature heating networks. ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.40","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Mandatory municipal heating plans are an appropriate way to define an efficient ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.21","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"strategy that balances insulation, local heating systems, and the grid-connected heat ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"supply in regions with a significant space-heating demand. An analysis of building ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"energy codes in 15 countries (Young ","dir":"ltr","width":"152.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"2014","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","206.69","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":206.68829345,"y":213.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":") distinguished between residential and ","dir":"ltr","width":"162.04","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","226.69","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":226.68829345,"y":213.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"commercial buildings and listed six technical requirement categories, ranging from ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.12","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"heating and cooling requirements and the insulation of the building envelope to the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.20","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"building design. However, building energy codes must be mandatory and include ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.96","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"existing building stock as well as new buildings. The most urgent need for action is ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"in developing countries, where the rapid growth in building construction can be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"expected over the next decades. Economic measures to increase heating/cooling ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"costs, e.g., by introducing fossil energy taxes or surcharges or by phasing-out fossil ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"fuel subsidies, could support efforts to save energy. However, they must be accom","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.2073059,"y":117.1597824} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"panied by social policies.","dir":"ltr","width":"101.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":527,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"484","dir":"ltr","width":"12.95","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1.3","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"Policies for more-Efficient Electrical Appliances","dir":"ltr","width":"203.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","597.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"To reduce the electricity demand of consumer goods in households and equipment ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"in buildings, the efficiency standards for electrical appliances, all forms of informa","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18728637,"y":561.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"tion and communication technologies (computers, smart devices, screens, televi","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1572876,"y":549.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"sions, etc.), white goods (washing machines, dryers, dishwasher, fridges, and ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.78","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"freezers), electrical building equipment for thermal comfort, and lighting technolo-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"gies are required. These efficiency standards must be dynamic and designed to sup","dir":"ltr","width":"328.32","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17730712,"y":513.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"port competition for the most efficient design. The Japanese front runner system ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"(IEA-PM ","dir":"ltr","width":"40.27","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"2018","dir":"ltr","width":"20.00","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","95.01","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":95.00830078,"y":489.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":") is a positive example of dynamic efficiency standards. Labelling ","dir":"ltr","width":"273.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","115.01","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":115.00830078,"y":489.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"programmes and purchase subsidies for the best available technologies can support ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.15","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"the replacement of old devices with the most efficient technologies. Measures for ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"training and capacity building are also essential, most importantly in non-OECD ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.11","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"countries.","dir":"ltr","width":"39.16","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","441.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1.4","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","405.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"Policies for the Transport Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"138.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","405.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":405.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"As well as resolute electrification and further technical advances in all transport ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.38","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"modes, decision-makers in politics and the urban planning context must carefully ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.86","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"steer transport habits and infrastructure development toward a climate-friendly ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"transport system. Their aim should be to promote the use of less ecologically prob","dir":"ltr","width":"328.36","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.22","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.21929931,"y":345.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"lematic transport modes. This can be done by, for example, the introduction of fiscal ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"and regulatory measures that effectively reduce the subsidization of currently ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.79","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"untaxed and internalisation of external costs.","dir":"ltr","width":"178.56","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"In parallel, environmentally less harmful transportation modes should be incen","dir":"ltr","width":"316.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20831298,"y":297.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"tivized. Investments must also be channelled towards highly productive and energy-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"efficient passenger and freight railway systems and towards a dense network of ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"battery recharging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructures for road vehicles. In the ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"passenger car and truck context, direct subsidies or tax incentives for electric ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.41","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"vehicles will speed up the electrification of fleets. CO","dir":"ltr","width":"212.61","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","266.45","235.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":266.45309448,"y":235.6598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":" taxation, road tolls, and con","dir":"ltr","width":"112.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","269.45","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":269.45309448,"y":237.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1980896,"y":237.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"gestion charges could be applied, in addition to parking-space management schemes ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.60","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86309051,"y":225.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"to reduce road traffic and thus internal combustion engines in a transition to car-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86309051,"y":213.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"reduced cities. The assignment of parking lots and driving lanes exclusively to elec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86309051,"y":201.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.210083,"y":201.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"tric cars will speed the phase-out of internal combustion engines.","dir":"ltr","width":"259.76","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.86309051,"y":189.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"In aviation, measures could include the taxation of jet fuel and CO","dir":"ltr","width":"264.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.86309051,"y":177.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"2","dir":"ltr","width":"3.00","height":"6.00","transform":["6.00","0.00","0.00","6.00","330.76","175.66"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":330.75839233,"y":175.6598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":", the applica","dir":"ltr","width":"48.42","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","333.76","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":333.75839233,"y":177.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.17837524,"y":177.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"tion of an emission trading scheme on the direct and indirect climate effects of flight ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":165.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"at high altitudes. Direct and indirect public subsidies for carriers and airports should ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.77","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":153.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"be abolished (investment and operational grants should be reduced and funding ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":141.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"should be allocated to a competitive and attractive rail system).","dir":"ltr","width":"251.94","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":129.1598053} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"All measures curtailing the use of individual passenger transport should be ","dir":"ltr","width":"324.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.8583908,"y":117.15979766} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"accompanied by the promotion of ubiquitous, fast, comfortable, and price-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.65","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":105.15979766} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"competitive public transport systems, ride and car sharing and on-demand services ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":93.15979766} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"(especially for less densely populated semi-urban and rural areas). Last but not ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.71","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":81.15979766} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"least, an attractive and safe infrastructure for bicycles and e-bikes will help to reduce ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.64","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","69.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.8583908,"y":69.15979766} {"page":528,"change":"none","str":"S. Teske et al.","dir":"ltr","width":"47.51","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","338.00","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+MxfbygRlsshrYrdqtkTimesLTStd-Roman","x":338.00009155,"y":623.65319824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"485","dir":"ltr","width":"12.72","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","372.75","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":372.75421142,"y":623.65332031} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"emissions and other unwanted side-effects of transport. In this arena, Copenhagen ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.59","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"and Amsterdam are at the cycling forefront and inspiring more and more cities in ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"following their path. Cities must also curtail tendencies to urban sprawl and ‘rein","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","573.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":573.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"vent’ the compact city ideal, which means becoming pedestrian-friendly cities, thus ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","561.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"reducing the need for motorized individual mobility and freeing up space for recre","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","549.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13931274,"y":549.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"ation and green spaces.","dir":"ltr","width":"92.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","537.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"Cities in developed countries should aim to transform their transport systems ","dir":"ltr","width":"323.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","65.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":65.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"(often) from passenger-car-centred urban structures and policies towards pedes","dir":"ltr","width":"328.30","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.16","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.15829467,"y":513.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"trian-, bike-, and mass-transport-friendly environments. The often densely popu","dir":"ltr","width":"328.35","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.21","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.20529174,"y":501.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"lated emerging megacities in the upcoming economic powerhouses of Africa, Latin ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.10","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"America, and Asia should invest, right from the start, in resilient public-transport-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"oriented urban structures instead of relying too strongly on individual passenger car ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"traffic, as the OECD countries have done in the past.","dir":"ltr","width":"209.89","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1.5","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","417.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"Policies for the Industry Sector","dir":"ltr","width":"132.31","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","417.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":417.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"Policies to achieve the implementation of new highly efficient technologies and to ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.51","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","393.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"replace fossil fuel use in industry must be defined region-wide or even on the global ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.88","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","381.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"level, and will require stringent and regulatory implementation. Economic incen","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","369.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":369.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"tives, national initiatives, and voluntary agreements with industrial branches will ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.23","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","357.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"most probably not, by themselves, see the achievement of a rapid technological ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.48","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","345.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"change. Concrete standards and requirements must be defined at a very detailed ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.37","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","333.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"level, covering as far as possible all technologies and their areas of application. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.01","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","321.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"systematic implementation of already-identified best-available technologies could ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.97","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","309.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"begin in the next few years. Mandatory energy management systems should be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.69","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","297.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"introduced to identify efficiency potentials and to monitor efficiency progress. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","285.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"sustainability features along process chains and material flows must also be taken ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.72","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","273.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"into account when designing political measures. Particular attention must be paid to ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.84","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","261.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"the material efficiency of both production processes and their products, because this ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.83","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","249.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"can open up major energy efficiency potentials and reduce other environmental ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.74","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","237.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"effects. Public procurement policies and guidelines can help to establish new mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.52","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":225.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","225.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":225.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"kets and to demonstrate new more-efficient products and opportunities. The effec","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","213.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":213.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"tiveness of policy interventions must be assessed by independent experts and the ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.03","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","201.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"further development of efficiency programs and measures will require ongoing ","dir":"ltr","width":"336.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","189.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"coordination by independent executive agencies. The public provision of low-","dir":"ltr","width":"331.68","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","177.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"interest loans, investment risk management, and tax exemptions for energy-efficient ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.85","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","165.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"technologies and processes will significantly support technological changes and ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.75","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","153.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"incentivize the huge investments required. Knowledge transfer between sectors and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.06","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","141.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"countries can be achieved through networks initiated and coordinated by govern","dir":"ltr","width":"328.29","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.15","129.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.14828491,"y":129.15977478} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"ments. Public funding for research and development activities with regard to tech","dir":"ltr","width":"328.28","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.14","117.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.13729858,"y":117.1597824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"nological innovation, low-carbon solutions, and their process integration will be ","dir":"ltr","width":"335.54","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","105.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"vital to push the technological limits further. Innovative approaches to the realiza","dir":"ltr","width":"328.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","93.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":93.1597824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.19","93.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.18829345,"y":93.1597824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"tion of material cycles and recycling options, the recovery of industrial waste heat, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","81.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":81.1597824} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"13","dir":"ltr","width":"8.27","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":529,"change":"none","str":"Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","dir":"ltr","width":"164.73","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","70.63","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":70.62879943,"y":623.65332031} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"486","dir":"ltr","width":"12.81","height":"8.50","transform":["8.50","0.00","0.00","8.50","53.86","623.65"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"and low-carbon raw materials and process routes in industry must also be identified ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.99","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","597.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"and implemented.","dir":"ltr","width":"71.66","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","585.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"13.2.1.6","dir":"ltr","width":"32.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","549.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"Political Framework for Power Markets","dir":"ltr","width":"170.67","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","96.36","549.16"],"fontName":"WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","x":96.35829925,"y":549.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"The 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios will lead to 100% renewable electricity supply, ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.98","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","525.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"with significant shares of variable power generation. The traditional electricity mar","dir":"ltr","width":"328.50","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.18","513.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.1783142,"y":513.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"ket framework has been developed for central suppliers operating dispatchable and ","dir":"ltr","width":"334.22","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","501.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"limited dispatchable (‘","dir":"ltr","width":"90.39","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"base load","dir":"ltr","width":"38.81","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","144.25","489.16"],"fontName":"AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","x":144.24830627,"y":489.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"’) thermal power plants. The electricity markets of ","dir":"ltr","width":"205.19","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","183.06","489.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":183.05830383,"y":489.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"the future will be dominated by variable generation without marginal/fuel costs. The ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.62","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","477.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"power system will also require the built-up and economic operation of a combina","dir":"ltr","width":"328.34","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"-","dir":"ltr","width":"3.33","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","382.20","465.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":382.19830322,"y":465.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"tion of dispatch generation, storage, and other system services whose operation will ","dir":"ltr","width":"333.92","height":"10.00","transform":["10.00","0.00","0.00","10.00","53.86","453.16"],"fontName":"HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003} {"page":530,"change":"none","str":"be conditioned by renewable electricity feed-ins. 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