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","line":19,"x":53.85779953,"y":188.67610168,"width":"333.81","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":10,"change":"Addition","str":"energy- related emissions and mitigation measures for them because it is essential to ","line":21,"x":53.85948944,"y":166.17610168,"width":"333.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":10,"change":"Addition","str":"State of Research—Climate Beyond reasonable doubt, climate change over the ","line":23,"x":53.85948944,"y":136.17610168,"width":"328.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":10,"change":"Addition","str":"gas- induced warming is masked by the effect of aerosol emissions.","line":27,"x":53.85850143,"y":88.17610168,"width":"267.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"human-induced climate change. A single kilogram of CO 2 emitted will increase the ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":583.65979003,"width":"334.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"atmospheric CO 2 concentration over hundreds or even thousands of years. Since the ","line":3,"x":53.86328125,"y":571.65979003,"width":"333.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"finding that cumulative CO 2 emissions are roughly linearly related to temperature ","line":5,"x":53.86259841,"y":547.65979003,"width":"334.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"has shaped scientific and political debate. The remaining permissible CO 2 emissions ","line":6,"x":53.86251068,"y":535.65979003,"width":"333.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concluded that beyond 2011, cumulative CO 2","line":9,"x":65.85640716,"y":499.65979003,"width":"319.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"emissions of roughly 1000 GtCO 2 are permissible for a “likely below 2.0 °C” target ","line":10,"x":53.86180114,"y":487.65979003,"width":"334.34","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"change, and approximately 400 GtCO 2 are permissible for a 1.5  °C target change. ","line":11,"x":53.8536911,"y":475.65979003,"width":"335.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"substantially higher carbon emissions of 1600 GtCO 2 will achieve a 2.0 °C change ","line":13,"x":53.85509872,"y":451.65979003,"width":"334.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"GtCO 2 to account for additional Earth system feedback over the twenty- first century. ","line":15,"x":53.85680007,"y":427.65979003,"width":"334.00","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"that we are away from 1.5 °C warming? While that question seems simple, it is sur -","line":17,"x":53.86180877,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Trends in the Energy Sector In 2017, the ongoing trends continued: solar ","line":25,"x":53.86180877,"y":303.15979003,"width":"328.02","height":"10.00","fontName":["MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"Since 2013, global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil ","line":42,"x":65.86139678,"y":91.65979766,"width":"323.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":11,"change":"Addition","str":"suggest that this changed in 2017, with global CO 2 emissions increasing by around ","line":44,"x":53.85371017,"y":67.65979766,"width":"334.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"Methodology for Developing Emission Pathways The complete decarbonisation ","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003,"width":"327.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["MTXJCP+NvqljkWdwfdjNcmgdgTimesLTStd-Bold","TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"frameworks for the electricity, heating and cooling sectors as well as for the trans -","line":19,"x":53.8577118,"y":375.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"• Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW) : This statistical method is used to 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{"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"• Land-based sequestration design : A Monte Carlo analysis across temperate, ","line":32,"x":53.85398864,"y":207.1598053,"width":"327.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"quantified literature-based synthesis of the potential for land-based CO 2","line":36,"x":65.85398864,"y":157.6598053,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"• Carbon cycle and climate modelling (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse ","line":39,"x":53.86180877,"y":123.15979766,"width":"326.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":12,"change":"Addition","str":"Gas-Induced Climate Change, MAGICC) : This study uses the MAGICC climate 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{"page":32,"change":"Addition","str":"higher chance of a 2100 temperature level that is below 1.5 °C—after a slight over -","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":279.15979003,"width":"331.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":32,"change":"Addition","str":"massive net negative emissions. Even the most stringent mitigation scenarios devel -","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":243.15977478,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":32,"change":"Addition","str":"past use of fossil fuels, unless we remove this CO 2 from the atmosphere in much ","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":205.6598053,"width":"334.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"The authors would like to thank the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation ( https://www.","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":430.17608642,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"leonardodicaprio.org ) which funded the research for Chaps 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , and ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":418.17608642,"width":"334.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"9 and Chap. 12 . Their ongoing support and dedication to this project was key and ","line":4,"x":53.88830184,"y":406.17608642,"width":"334.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"Greenpeace” ( https://umweltstiftung-greenpeace.de/die-stiftung ) for funding the ","line":7,"x":53.88830184,"y":370.17608642,"width":"336.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"employment calculation research documented in Chap. 10 . Last but not least, our ","line":8,"x":53.88830184,"y":358.17608642,"width":"334.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"thanks also to Earthworks ( earthworks.org ) for funding the research about metal ","line":9,"x":53.88830184,"y":346.17608642,"width":"335.31","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"requirements presented in Chap. 11 .","line":10,"x":53.88830184,"y":334.17608642,"width":"144.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"van Riet from the World Future Council ( https://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/ ); Dr. ","line":15,"x":53.88830184,"y":274.17608642,"width":"334.02","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"Joachim Fuenfgelt from Bread for the World ( https://www.brot-fuer-die-welt.de/en/","line":16,"x":53.88830184,"y":262.17608642,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"bread-for-the-world ); and Stefan Schurig from F20—Foundations 20 ( http://www.","line":17,"x":53.88830184,"y":250.17608642,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":33,"change":"Addition","str":"foundations-20.org/ ) who provided initial support to make this project possible. 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6 emission levels from literature-reported scenarios ","line":13,"x":53.85694122,"y":445.65979003,"width":"280.07","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 86","line":14,"x":104.8580017,"y":435.15979003,"width":"264.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 4.6 Global tetrafluoromethane (CF 4 ) emissions from ","line":15,"x":53.85802078,"y":421.65979003,"width":"229.38","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"the collection of assessed literature- reported scenarios ","line":16,"x":104.85690307,"y":411.15979003,"width":"221.33","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 86","line":17,"x":104.85690307,"y":399.15979003,"width":"264.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 4.7 Global and regional sulfate dioxide (SO X ) emissions ","line":18,"x":53.8569107,"y":385.65979003,"width":"244.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 87","line":20,"x":104.85858917,"y":363.15979003,"width":"264.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 4.8 Global and regional nitrate aerosol (NO X ) emissions ","line":21,"x":53.85860824,"y":349.65979003,"width":"244.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 88","line":23,"x":104.85817718,"y":327.15979003,"width":"264.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 4.9 Global and regional black carbon BC emissions ","line":24,"x":53.85820007,"y":315.15979003,"width":"226.78","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 89","line":26,"x":104.85820007,"y":291.15979003,"width":"264.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 4.10 Global and regional organic carbon OC emissions ","line":27,"x":53.85821151,"y":279.15979003,"width":"240.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF pathways derived in this study ................................ 90","line":29,"x":104.8582077,"y":255.15979003,"width":"264.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.1 Historic development and projections of oil prices ","line":30,"x":53.8582306,"y":237.15979003,"width":"235.97","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"to Wachtmeister et al. (2018) ........................................................ 104","line":33,"x":104.8582306,"y":201.15979003,"width":"270.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.2 Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 ","line":34,"x":53.85823822,"y":189.15979003,"width":"233.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"(IRENA 2014) .............................................................................. 111","line":35,"x":104.85823822,"y":177.15979003,"width":"269.36","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.3 Development of the specific final energy use (per $GDP) ","line":36,"x":53.8582611,"y":165.15979003,"width":"262.99","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenario (right) ........................................................... 119","line":39,"x":104.8582611,"y":129.15979003,"width":"270.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.4 Development of the average global RES shares ","line":40,"x":53.85826873,"y":117.15979003,"width":"223.94","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"in total power generation in the 2.0 °C Scenario .......................... 122","line":41,"x":104.85826873,"y":105.1597824,"width":"270.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":37,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.5 Development 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{"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 8.106 OECD Pacific: projection of total primary energy demand ","line":44,"x":53.85750961,"y":81.15979766,"width":"277.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":44,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity import balance) ............................................................ 391","line":46,"x":104.85751342,"y":57.15980148,"width":"270.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 9.1 Global coal production in 1981–2017 ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"185.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"(BP 2018—Statistical Review) ..................................................... 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..................................................... 406","line":6,"x":104.85832977,"y":537.15979003,"width":"270.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 9.4 Global oil production until 2050 under ","line":7,"x":53.85834121,"y":525.15979003,"width":"190.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"the three scenarios ........................................................................ 407","line":8,"x":104.8583374,"y":513.15979003,"width":"269.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 9.5 Global gas production in 1970–2017 ","line":9,"x":53.8583603,"y":501.15979003,"width":"182.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"(BP 2018—Statistical Review) ..................................................... 408","line":10,"x":104.8583603,"y":489.15979003,"width":"270.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 9.6 Global gas production until 2050 under ","line":11,"x":53.85837173,"y":477.15979003,"width":"193.28","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"the three scenarios ........................................................................ 408","line":12,"x":104.85836791,"y":465.15979003,"width":"269.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 10.1 World employment in the energy sector under ","line":13,"x":53.85837936,"y":447.15979003,"width":"224.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"the 5.0 °C and 2.0 °C Scenarios ( left ) and the 5.0 °C ","line":14,"x":104.85838317,"y":435.15979003,"width":"213.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenarios ( right ) ......................................................... 418","line":15,"x":104.85838317,"y":423.15979003,"width":"270.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 10.2 Distribution of human resources required to manufacture ","line":16,"x":53.85839843,"y":411.15979003,"width":"268.27","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"power plant. (IRENA 2017a) ........................................................ 420","line":18,"x":104.85839843,"y":387.15979003,"width":"271.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 10.3 Division of occupations between fossil fuels and renewable ","line":19,"x":53.85840988,"y":375.15979003,"width":"278.25","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"energy in 2015 and 2025 under the 1.5 °C Scenario .................... 427","line":20,"x":104.8584137,"y":363.15979003,"width":"269.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 10.4 Division of occupations between fossil fuels and ","line":21,"x":53.85842895,"y":351.15979003,"width":"235.01","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario ....................................................................... 428","line":23,"x":104.85842895,"y":327.15979003,"width":"270.38","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 10.5 Employment changes between 2015 and 2025 ","line":24,"x":53.8584404,"y":315.15979003,"width":"224.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"by occupational breakdown under the 2.0 °C Scenario ................ 433","line":25,"x":104.85843658,"y":303.15979003,"width":"270.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 10.6 Employment changes between 2015 and 2025 ","line":26,"x":53.85845947,"y":291.15979003,"width":"224.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"by occupational breakdown under the 1.5 °C Scenario ................ 434","line":27,"x":104.85845184,"y":279.15979003,"width":"270.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.1 Overview of key metal requirements and supply ","line":28,"x":53.85847091,"y":261.15979003,"width":"232.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"chain for solar PV ......................................................................... 439","line":29,"x":104.8584671,"y":249.15977478,"width":"270.54","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.2 Overview of key metal requirements and supply ","line":30,"x":53.85847854,"y":237.15977478,"width":"232.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"chain for wind power .................................................................... 440","line":31,"x":104.85848236,"y":225.15977478,"width":"270.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.3 Overview of key metal requirements and supply ","line":32,"x":53.85850143,"y":213.15977478,"width":"232.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"chain for LIB and EV ................................................................... 441","line":33,"x":104.85849761,"y":201.15977478,"width":"269.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.4 Cumulative demand from renewable energy ","line":34,"x":53.85850906,"y":189.15977478,"width":"215.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"and transport technologies to 2050 compared with reserves ........ 446","line":35,"x":104.85851287,"y":177.15977478,"width":"270.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.5 Annual demand from renewable energy and storage ","line":36,"x":53.85852813,"y":165.15977478,"width":"247.47","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"rates (note that scale varies across the metals) ............................. 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Annual primary demand for lithium from EVs ","line":42,"x":53.8585701,"y":93.1597824,"width":"225.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"and storage .................................................................................... 448","line":43,"x":104.85856628,"y":81.1597824,"width":"270.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.9 Cumulative primary demand for lithium from EVs ","line":44,"x":53.85858154,"y":69.1597824,"width":"242.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":45,"change":"Addition","str":"and storage by 2050 ...................................................................... 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{"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.12 Top five oil-producing countries (left) versus ","line":4,"x":53.85832977,"y":561.15979003,"width":"224.99","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"lithium-producing countries (right) .............................................. 453","line":5,"x":104.85832977,"y":549.15979003,"width":"269.99","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 12.1 Global CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O concentrations under ","line":6,"x":53.85834121,"y":529.65979003,"width":"232.31","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"and the LDF scenarios are those developed in this study ............. 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............................................................................ 464","line":17,"x":104.85801696,"y":399.15979003,"width":"270.38","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 12.4 Global-mean surface air temperature projections ......................... 467","line":18,"x":53.85802841,"y":387.15979003,"width":"307.07","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 12.5 Global-mean sea level rise projections under the three ","line":19,"x":53.85803985,"y":375.15979003,"width":"256.22","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":46,"change":"Addition","str":"scenarios developed in this study ................................................. 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{"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.4 Technology groups for dispatch order selection ........................ 51","line":4,"x":53.85832977,"y":394.17608642,"width":"295.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.5 Technology options—variable renewable energy ...................... 51","line":5,"x":53.85834121,"y":382.17608642,"width":"295.72","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.6 Technology options—dispatch generation ................................. 51","line":6,"x":53.85834884,"y":370.17608642,"width":"296.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.7 Technology options—storage technologies ............................... 52","line":7,"x":53.8583603,"y":358.17608642,"width":"295.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.8 Key assumptions ........................................................................ 59","line":8,"x":53.85837173,"y":346.17608642,"width":"295.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.9 Regional definitions according to the Integrated ","line":9,"x":53.85837936,"y":334.17608642,"width":"232.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Assessment Modelling community ............................................ 61","line":10,"x":111.85836791,"y":322.17608642,"width":"259.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.10 Narrative for each sequestration pathway ","line":11,"x":53.85837936,"y":310.17608642,"width":"210.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"per climatic biome ..................................................................... 68","line":12,"x":111.85838317,"y":298.17608642,"width":"257.49","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.11 Assumptions regarding the four land-use sequestration ","line":13,"x":53.8583908,"y":286.17608642,"width":"265.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"pathways for two climate domain categories ............................. 71","line":14,"x":111.85838317,"y":274.17608642,"width":"259.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.1 World regions used in the scenarios ........................................... 96","line":15,"x":53.8583908,"y":256.17608642,"width":"296.55","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.2 Population growth projections (in millions) ............................... 102","line":16,"x":53.85839843,"y":244.17608642,"width":"302.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.3 GDP development projections based on average annual ","line":17,"x":53.85839843,"y":232.17608642,"width":"262.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"and on our own extrapolations ................................................... 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2050 ................. 108","line":23,"x":111.8584137,"y":160.17608642,"width":"262.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.6 Development projections for fossil fuel prices ","line":24,"x":53.85842132,"y":148.17608642,"width":"225.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"in $2015 (IEA 2017) .................................................................. 110","line":25,"x":111.85842132,"y":136.17608642,"width":"263.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.7 Biomass price projections for 2030 at 108 EJ ","line":26,"x":53.85842132,"y":124.1760788,"width":"222.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"of the biomass demand (IRENA 2014) ...................................... 112","line":27,"x":111.85842132,"y":112.1760788,"width":"264.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":47,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.8 CO 2 cost assumptions in the scenarios ....................................... 113","line":28,"x":53.85842895,"y":98.67610168,"width":"301.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.9 Assumed average development of specific (per $GDP) ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.159729,"width":"259.50","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"in the ‘Industry’ sector ............................................................... 115","line":3,"x":111.85829925,"y":573.159729,"width":"263.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.10 Assumed average development in final energy use ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.159729,"width":"247.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"(per $GDP) ................................................................................. 116","line":6,"x":111.85829925,"y":537.159729,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.11 Assumed average developments of per capita electricity ","line":7,"x":53.8583107,"y":525.159729,"width":"270.05","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"appliances (without power-to-heat) ........................................... 117","line":9,"x":111.85830688,"y":501.159729,"width":"262.57","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.12 Assumed average development of specific final energy ","line":10,"x":53.85831832,"y":489.159729,"width":"264.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"(including power-to-heat) .......................................................... 118","line":12,"x":111.85830688,"y":465.159729,"width":"262.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.13 Development of power from co-generation ","line":13,"x":53.85831832,"y":453.159729,"width":"217.94","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"per $GDP ................................................................................... 126","line":14,"x":111.85832214,"y":441.159729,"width":"262.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.14 Development of heat from co-generation per $GDP ................. 126","line":15,"x":53.85832977,"y":429.159729,"width":"305.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 6.1 Pkm “per km” shift from domestic aviation ","line":16,"x":53.85834121,"y":411.159729,"width":"215.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"to trains (in %) ........................................................................... 151","line":17,"x":111.8583374,"y":399.159729,"width":"262.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 6.2 Global tkm shifts from truck to train in the 2.0 °C ","line":18,"x":53.85834121,"y":387.159729,"width":"240.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"and 1.5 °C Scenarios (in %) ....................................................... 155","line":19,"x":111.8583374,"y":375.159729,"width":"264.26","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 7.1 Theoretical and technical renewable energy potentials ","line":20,"x":53.85834884,"y":357.159729,"width":"257.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"versus utilization in 2015 ........................................................... 163","line":21,"x":111.85835266,"y":345.159729,"width":"263.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 7.2 [R]E-SPACE: key results part 1 ................................................. 169","line":22,"x":53.85834884,"y":333.159729,"width":"300.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 7.3 [R]E-SPACE: key results part 2 ................................................. 171","line":23,"x":53.8583603,"y":321.159729,"width":"300.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.1 Global: development of renewable electricity-generation ","line":24,"x":53.85837173,"y":303.159729,"width":"267.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 180","line":25,"x":111.85836791,"y":291.159729,"width":"263.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.2 Global: development of renewable heat supply ","line":26,"x":53.85837936,"y":279.159729,"width":"228.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 184","line":27,"x":111.85838317,"y":267.159729,"width":"262.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.3 Global: installed capacities for renewable heat generation ","line":28,"x":53.85837936,"y":255.15971374,"width":"271.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"in the scenarios .......................................................................... 185","line":29,"x":111.85838317,"y":243.15971374,"width":"262.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.4 Global: projection of transport energy demand ","line":30,"x":53.8583908,"y":231.15971374,"width":"227.59","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 187","line":31,"x":111.8583908,"y":219.15971374,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.5 Global: projection of bunker fuel demands for aviation ","line":32,"x":53.85839843,"y":207.15971374,"width":"260.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"and navigation by fuel in the scenarios ...................................... 191","line":33,"x":111.8583908,"y":195.15971374,"width":"264.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.6 Economic potential within a space-constrained scenario ","line":34,"x":53.85839843,"y":183.15971374,"width":"264.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"and utilization rates for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios ........... 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{"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.9 Global: capacity factors for variable and dispatchable","line":39,"x":53.85842132,"y":123.15972137,"width":"252.79","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman","EHWIUF+GmkwrjQwhrjhPbfgkvTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"power generation ........................................................................ 198","line":40,"x":111.85842132,"y":111.15972137,"width":"264.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.10 Global: load, generation, and residual load development .......... 200","line":41,"x":53.85842895,"y":99.15972137,"width":"305.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":48,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.11 Global: storage and dispatch ...................................................... 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8.14 OECD North America: development of renewable ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"247.01","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 211","line":4,"x":111.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"262.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.15 OECD North America: development of renewable heat ","line":5,"x":53.8583107,"y":549.15979003,"width":"266.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"use of electricity) ....................................................................... 215","line":7,"x":111.85830688,"y":525.15979003,"width":"262.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.16 OECD North America: installed capacities ","line":8,"x":53.85831832,"y":513.15979003,"width":"217.50","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"for renewable heat generation in the scenarios .......................... 216","line":9,"x":111.85830688,"y":501.15979003,"width":"263.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.17 OECD North America: projection of the transport ","line":10,"x":53.85831832,"y":489.15979003,"width":"245.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"energy demand by mode in the scenarios .................................. 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....................................................... 223","line":15,"x":111.85832977,"y":429.15979003,"width":"262.76","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.20 OECD North America: capacity factors ","line":16,"x":53.85834121,"y":417.15979003,"width":"204.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"by generation type ...................................................................... 225","line":17,"x":111.8583374,"y":405.15979003,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.21 OECD North America: load, generation, and residual ","line":18,"x":53.85834121,"y":393.15979003,"width":"259.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"load development ....................................................................... 226","line":19,"x":111.8583374,"y":381.15979003,"width":"263.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.22 OECD North America: storage and dispatch ","line":20,"x":53.85834884,"y":369.15979003,"width":"223.33","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"service requirements .................................................................. 228","line":21,"x":111.85835266,"y":357.15979003,"width":"263.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.23 Latin America: development of renewable ","line":22,"x":53.8583603,"y":345.15979003,"width":"215.07","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 232","line":23,"x":111.85835266,"y":333.15979003,"width":"263.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.24 Latin America: development of renewable heat ","line":24,"x":53.8583603,"y":321.15979003,"width":"234.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"use of electricity) ....................................................................... 236","line":26,"x":111.8583603,"y":297.15979003,"width":"262.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.25 Latin 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8.29 Latin America: capacity factors by generation type ................... 245","line":34,"x":53.85837936,"y":201.15977478,"width":"307.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.30 Latin America: load, generation, and residual ","line":35,"x":53.8583908,"y":189.15977478,"width":"227.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"load development ....................................................................... 246","line":36,"x":111.8583908,"y":177.15977478,"width":"263.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.31 Latin America: storage and dispatch service ","line":37,"x":53.85839843,"y":165.15977478,"width":"222.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"requirements in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios ....................... 249","line":38,"x":111.85839843,"y":153.15977478,"width":"264.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.32 OECD Europe: development of renewable ","line":39,"x":53.85839843,"y":141.15977478,"width":"216.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 252","line":40,"x":111.85839843,"y":129.15977478,"width":"263.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.33 OECD Europe: development of renewable heat ","line":41,"x":53.85840988,"y":117.1597824,"width":"235.34","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"use of electricity) ....................................................................... 256","line":43,"x":111.8584137,"y":93.1597824,"width":"262.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.34 OECD Europe: installed capacities for renewable heat ","line":44,"x":53.85840988,"y":81.1597824,"width":"263.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":49,"change":"Addition","str":"generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 258","line":45,"x":111.8584137,"y":69.1597824,"width":"264.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.35 OECD Europe: projection of the transport energy ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"244.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"demand by mode in the scenarios .............................................. 259","line":2,"x":111.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"263.59","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.36 OECD Europe: average annual change in installed ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"248.24","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"power plant capacity .................................................................. 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....................................................................... 266","line":8,"x":111.85832977,"y":513.15979003,"width":"263.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.40 OECD Europe: storage and dispatch service requirements ....... 267","line":9,"x":53.85834121,"y":501.15979003,"width":"305.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.41 Africa: development of renewable electricity-generation ","line":10,"x":53.85834121,"y":489.15979003,"width":"271.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 271","line":11,"x":111.8583374,"y":477.15979003,"width":"263.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.42 Africa: development of renewable heat supply ","line":12,"x":53.85834884,"y":465.15979003,"width":"231.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 275","line":13,"x":111.85835266,"y":453.15979003,"width":"262.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.43 Africa: installed capacities for renewable heat ","line":14,"x":53.8583603,"y":441.15979003,"width":"230.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 276","line":15,"x":111.85835266,"y":429.15979003,"width":"264.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.44 Africa: projection of transport energy demand ","line":16,"x":53.8583603,"y":417.15979003,"width":"230.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 277","line":17,"x":111.8583603,"y":405.15979003,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.45 Africa: average annual change in installed power ","line":18,"x":53.85837173,"y":393.15979003,"width":"242.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"plant capacity ............................................................................. 281","line":19,"x":111.85836791,"y":381.15979003,"width":"263.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.46 Africa: power system shares by technology group .................... 282","line":20,"x":53.85837173,"y":369.15979003,"width":"305.57","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.47 Africa: capacity factors by generation type ............................... 283","line":21,"x":53.85837936,"y":357.15979003,"width":"305.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.48 Africa: load, generation, and residual load development ........... 284","line":22,"x":53.8583908,"y":345.15979003,"width":"306.80","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.49 Africa: storage and dispatch service requirements ..................... 285","line":23,"x":53.85839843,"y":333.15979003,"width":"307.47","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.50 Middle East: development of renewable ","line":24,"x":53.85840988,"y":321.15979003,"width":"206.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 289","line":25,"x":111.8584137,"y":309.15979003,"width":"263.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.51 Middle East: development of renewable heat supply ","line":26,"x":53.85842132,"y":297.15979003,"width":"254.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 293","line":27,"x":111.85842132,"y":285.15979003,"width":"262.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.52 Middle East: installed capacities for renewable heat ","line":28,"x":53.85842132,"y":273.15979003,"width":"253.24","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 294","line":29,"x":111.85842132,"y":261.15979003,"width":"264.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.53 Middle East: projection of transport energy demand ","line":30,"x":53.85842895,"y":249.15977478,"width":"253.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 295","line":31,"x":111.85842895,"y":237.15977478,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.54 Middle East: average annual change in installed ","line":32,"x":53.85842895,"y":225.15977478,"width":"238.25","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"power plant capacity .................................................................. 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....................................................................... 303","line":37,"x":111.85845947,"y":165.15977478,"width":"263.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.58 Middle East: storage and dispatch service requirements ........... 304","line":38,"x":53.85845947,"y":153.15977478,"width":"305.54","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.59 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of renewable ","line":39,"x":53.85847091,"y":141.15977478,"width":"251.72","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 308","line":40,"x":111.8584671,"y":129.15977478,"width":"263.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.60 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: development of renewable ","line":41,"x":53.85847854,"y":117.1597824,"width":"251.72","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"use of electricity) ....................................................................... 312","line":43,"x":111.85848236,"y":93.1597824,"width":"262.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.61 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: installed capacities for renewable ","line":44,"x":53.85849,"y":81.1597824,"width":"279.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":50,"change":"Addition","str":"heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 313","line":45,"x":111.85848236,"y":69.1597824,"width":"263.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.62 Eastern Europe/Eurasia: projection of transport energy ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"265.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"demand by mode in the scenarios .............................................. 315","line":2,"x":111.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"263.59","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.63 Eurasia: average annual change in installed power ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"246.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"plant capacity ............................................................................. 318","line":4,"x":111.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"263.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.64 Eurasia: power system shares by technology group ................... 319","line":5,"x":53.8583107,"y":549.15979003,"width":"307.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.65 Eurasia: capacity factors by generation type .............................. 321","line":6,"x":53.8583107,"y":537.15979003,"width":"307.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.66 Eurasia: load, generation, and residual load development ......... 322","line":7,"x":53.85831832,"y":525.15979003,"width":"306.25","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.67 Eurasia: storage and dispatch service requirements ................... 323","line":8,"x":53.85832977,"y":513.15979003,"width":"306.92","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.68 Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable ","line":9,"x":53.85834121,"y":501.15979003,"width":"225.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 327","line":10,"x":111.8583374,"y":489.15979003,"width":"263.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.69 Non-OECD Asia: development of renewable heat ","line":11,"x":53.85834121,"y":477.15979003,"width":"244.79","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"use of electricity) ....................................................................... 331","line":13,"x":111.8583374,"y":453.15979003,"width":"262.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.70 Non-OECD Asia: installed capacities for renewable ","line":14,"x":53.85834884,"y":441.15979003,"width":"253.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 332","line":15,"x":111.85835266,"y":429.15979003,"width":"263.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.71 Non-OECD Asia: projection of transport energy demand ","line":16,"x":53.8583603,"y":417.15979003,"width":"273.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 333","line":17,"x":111.85835266,"y":405.15979003,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.72 Non-OECD Asia: average annual change in installed ","line":18,"x":53.8583603,"y":393.15979003,"width":"257.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"power plant capacity .................................................................. 337","line":19,"x":111.8583603,"y":381.15979003,"width":"263.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.73 Non-OECD Asia: power system shares ","line":20,"x":53.85837173,"y":369.15979003,"width":"202.81","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"by technology group .................................................................. 338","line":21,"x":111.85836791,"y":357.15979003,"width":"262.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.74 Non-OECD Asia: capacity factors ","line":22,"x":53.85837173,"y":345.15979003,"width":"183.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"by generation type ...................................................................... 340","line":23,"x":111.85836791,"y":333.15979003,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.75 Non-OECD Asia: load, generation, and residual ","line":24,"x":53.85837936,"y":321.15979003,"width":"238.33","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"load development—2.0 °C Scenario .......................................... 341","line":25,"x":111.85838317,"y":309.15979003,"width":"264.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.76 Non-OECD Asia: storage and dispatch ","line":26,"x":53.85837936,"y":297.15979003,"width":"201.95","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"service requirements .................................................................. 343","line":27,"x":111.85838317,"y":285.15979003,"width":"263.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.77 India: development of renewable electricity-generation ","line":28,"x":53.8583908,"y":273.15979003,"width":"266.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 347","line":29,"x":111.8583908,"y":261.15979003,"width":"263.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.78 India: development of renewable heat supply ","line":30,"x":53.85839843,"y":249.15977478,"width":"226.46","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 350","line":31,"x":111.8583908,"y":237.15977478,"width":"262.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.79 India: installed capacities for renewable heat ","line":32,"x":53.85839843,"y":225.15977478,"width":"225.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 351","line":33,"x":111.85839843,"y":213.15977478,"width":"264.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.80 India: projection of transport energy demand ","line":34,"x":53.85840988,"y":201.15977478,"width":"225.92","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 353","line":35,"x":111.8584137,"y":189.15977478,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.81 India: average annual change in installed power ","line":36,"x":53.85840988,"y":177.15977478,"width":"237.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"plant capacity ............................................................................. 356","line":37,"x":111.8584137,"y":165.15977478,"width":"263.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.82 India: power system shares by technology group ...................... 358","line":38,"x":53.85842132,"y":153.15977478,"width":"305.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.83 India: capacity factors by generation type ................................. 358","line":39,"x":53.85842895,"y":141.15977478,"width":"305.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.84 India: load, generation, and residual load development ............. 359","line":40,"x":53.8584404,"y":129.15977478,"width":"306.81","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.85 India: storage and dispatch service requirements ....................... 360","line":41,"x":53.85845184,"y":117.1597824,"width":"307.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.86 China: development of renewable electricity-generation ","line":42,"x":53.85845184,"y":105.1597824,"width":"269.50","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"capacity in the scenarios ............................................................ 363","line":43,"x":111.85845184,"y":93.1597824,"width":"263.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.87 China: development of renewable heat supply ","line":44,"x":53.85845184,"y":81.1597824,"width":"229.80","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":51,"change":"Addition","str":"in the scenarios (excluding the direct use of electricity) ........... 367","line":45,"x":111.85845184,"y":69.1597824,"width":"262.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.88 China: installed capacities for renewable heat ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"228.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"generation in the scenarios ......................................................... 368","line":2,"x":111.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"264.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.89 China: projection of transport energy demand ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"229.26","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 370","line":4,"x":111.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.90 China: average annual change in installed power ","line":5,"x":53.8583107,"y":549.15979003,"width":"240.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"plant capacity ............................................................................. 373","line":6,"x":111.85830688,"y":537.15979003,"width":"263.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.91 China: power system shares by technology group ..................... 374","line":7,"x":53.85831832,"y":525.15979003,"width":"306.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.92 China: capacity factors by generation type ................................ 376","line":8,"x":53.85832977,"y":513.15979003,"width":"306.00","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.93 China: load, generation, and residual load development ........... 377","line":9,"x":53.85834121,"y":501.15979003,"width":"305.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.94 China: storage and dispatch service requirements ..................... 379","line":10,"x":53.85834121,"y":489.15979003,"width":"305.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.95 OECD Pacific: development of renewable ","line":11,"x":53.85834884,"y":477.15979003,"width":"214.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity-generation capacity in the scenarios ......................... 383","line":12,"x":111.85835266,"y":465.15979003,"width":"263.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.96 OECD Pacific: development of renewable heat ","line":13,"x":53.8583603,"y":453.15979003,"width":"233.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"of electricity) .............................................................................. 387","line":15,"x":111.8583603,"y":429.15979003,"width":"264.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.97 OECD Pacific: installed capacities for renewable ","line":16,"x":53.85837173,"y":417.15979003,"width":"242.26","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"heat generation in the scenarios ................................................. 387","line":17,"x":111.8583603,"y":405.15979003,"width":"263.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.98 OECD Pacific: projection of transport energy demand ","line":18,"x":53.85837173,"y":393.15979003,"width":"262.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"by mode in the scenarios ............................................................ 389","line":19,"x":111.85836791,"y":381.15979003,"width":"264.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.99 OECD Pacific: average annual change in installed ","line":20,"x":53.85837936,"y":369.15979003,"width":"246.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"power plant capacity .................................................................. 393","line":21,"x":111.85838317,"y":357.15979003,"width":"263.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.100 OECD Pacific: power system shares by technology group ........ 394","line":22,"x":53.85837936,"y":345.15979003,"width":"311.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.101 OECD Pacific: capacity factors by generation type ................... 396","line":23,"x":53.8583908,"y":333.15979003,"width":"311.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.102 OECD Pacific: load, generation, and residual load ","line":24,"x":53.85839843,"y":321.15979003,"width":"251.79","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"development ............................................................................... 397","line":25,"x":111.85839843,"y":309.15979003,"width":"263.76","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.103 OECD Pacific: storage and dispatch service requirements ........ 398","line":26,"x":53.85840988,"y":297.15979003,"width":"311.22","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 9.1 Fossil reserves, resources, and additional occurrences .............. 404","line":27,"x":53.85842132,"y":279.15979003,"width":"300.78","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 9.2 Summary—coal, oil, and gas trajectories for a just ","line":28,"x":53.85842895,"y":267.15979003,"width":"243.28","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"transition under the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C Scenarios ......... 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..................................................... 415","line":33,"x":111.85843658,"y":201.15977478,"width":"262.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.3 Regional multipliers used for the quantitative calculation ","line":34,"x":53.8584404,"y":189.15977478,"width":"274.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"of employment ........................................................................... 416","line":35,"x":111.85843658,"y":177.15977478,"width":"263.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.4 Wind and solar PV manufacturing–study methodology ............ 421","line":36,"x":53.85845184,"y":165.15977478,"width":"305.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.5 Occupational hierarchy, solar PV construction .......................... 422","line":37,"x":53.85845947,"y":153.15977478,"width":"306.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.6 Occupational compositions for renewable and fossil ","line":38,"x":53.85847091,"y":141.15977478,"width":"254.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"fuel technologies ........................................................................ 425","line":39,"x":111.8584671,"y":129.15977478,"width":"263.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.7 Jobs created and lost between 2015 and 2025 under ","line":40,"x":53.85847091,"y":117.1597824,"width":"253.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"the 1.5 °C Scenario .................................................................... 429","line":41,"x":111.8584671,"y":105.1597824,"width":"262.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.8 Jobs created or lost between 2015 and 2025 by region ","line":42,"x":53.85847854,"y":93.1597824,"width":"262.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":52,"change":"Addition","str":"under the 1.5 °C Scenario .......................................................... 430","line":43,"x":111.85848236,"y":81.1597824,"width":"263.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.9 Jobs created and lost between 2015 and 2025 under ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"253.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"the 2.0 °C Scenario .................................................................... 431","line":2,"x":111.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"262.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 10.10 Jobs created or lost between 2015 and 2025 by region ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"267.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"under the 2.0 °C Scenario .......................................................... 432","line":4,"x":111.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"263.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 11.1 Summary of metal scenarios ...................................................... 443","line":5,"x":53.8583107,"y":543.15979003,"width":"306.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 11.2 Material intensity and recycling rates ........................................ 444","line":6,"x":53.85831832,"y":531.15979003,"width":"305.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["TGOZWB+JkylrpTwghlkTlcrnvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":53,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 11.3 Market share ............................................................................... 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This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, ","line":15,"x":66.10549829999998,"y":331.89089965,"width":"307.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":54,"change":"Addition","str":"(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below ","line":19,"x":79.46549890999998,"y":277.89089965,"width":"292.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":54,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the tem -","line":20,"x":95.26550195999998,"y":265.89089965,"width":"278.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":54,"change":"Addition","str":"(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate ","line":23,"x":78.60549829999998,"y":229.89089965,"width":"295.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":54,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske ( * ) ","line":27,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":145.39169311,"width":"46.84","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","VHPYUC+JksxxjKsbskyMdpydqWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":54,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au","line":29,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":125.39968872,"width":"103.46","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":54,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: thomas.pregger@dlr.de","line":33,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":80.40918731,"width":"105.67","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"climate actions (Rogelj et al. 2016 ). The aim of this research is to develop practical ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":461.1947937,"width":"334.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"pathways to achieve the Paris climate goals in an economically feasible and sustain -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":449.1947937,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"produce energy, because energy-related CO 2 emissions are the main driver of cli -","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":411.6947937,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"energy- related emissions and mitigation measures because it is essential to address ","line":10,"x":53.8623085,"y":389.1947937,"width":"334.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"Scenario studies are an important way of linking expected or assumed anthropo -","line":15,"x":65.86231231,"y":329.1947937,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"must adopt a holistic approach and integrate comprehensive state-of-the-art back -","line":24,"x":53.8623085,"y":221.1947937,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"Existing global scenario studies do not provide a comprehensive view of the pos -","line":27,"x":65.86231231,"y":185.1947937,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"most scenario models are based on objective cost-optimizing functions, which over -","line":31,"x":53.8623085,"y":137.1947937,"width":"331.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"misleading and fallacious ‘optimized’ scenario pathways and derived policy recom -","line":35,"x":53.8623085,"y":89.1947937,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"mendations (see e.g., Mai et al. 2013 ; Mohn 2016 ).","line":36,"x":53.8623085,"y":77.1947937,"width":"204.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low green -","line":37,"x":78.00330352,"y":586.07470703,"width":"291.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":55,"change":"Addition","str":"2. This Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of ","line":39,"x":64.94329833,"y":556.07470703,"width":"307.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"unknown, disadvantages. These technologies include nuclear power generation, car -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"bon capture and sequestration, and geoengineering (see e.g., Rogelj et  al. 2018 ; ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"Kriegler et al. 2015 ). Such scenarios involve considerable risk. Moreover, the reader ","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"334.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"therefore has limited information about the transparency and traceability of the fac -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"of the global transition to renewable energy. We provide two exemplary develop -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"In addition to scenario building, we assess the major economic and infrastruc -","line":17,"x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"319.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"tural implications of the two pathways in comparison with a 5.0 °C ‘reference’ sce -","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"published in the Word Energy Outlook 2017 (IEA-WEO 2017 ). We do not claim that ","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003,"width":"333.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman","GAERSG+WxhbhpYtwxcnWvnkwmTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"of possible climate mitigation pathways and the contributions of the illustrated strat -","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"modelled by applying a feasible model with reduced complexity, which is fre -","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":201.15977478,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"Any scenario building on a global scale must severely simplify the complex tran -","line":36,"x":65.85829925,"y":177.15977478,"width":"319.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"sition processes and their interrelations. The introduction of different new technolo -","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":56,"change":"Addition","str":"1 Introduction","line":46,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"47.03","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"achievable, it will be essential for developing countries to avoid inefficient tech -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"Paris/International Energy Agency, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/weo-2017-en .","line":11,"x":65.86029815,"y":433.16378784,"width":"269.08","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (USA). URL: http://iea-retd.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/","line":14,"x":65.86029815,"y":403.17578125,"width":"319.63","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"RE-ASSUME_IEA-RETD_2013.pdf (accessed on July 27th, 2015).","line":15,"x":65.86029815,"y":393.17977905,"width":"231.36","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"Business School, Norwegian School of Economics. Available at: http://www1.uis.no/ansatt/","line":17,"x":65.86029815,"y":373.18780517,"width":"319.66","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"631–639. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307","line":21,"x":65.86029815,"y":333.20379638,"width":"174.10","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"325–332. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3","line":26,"x":65.86029815,"y":283.2237854,"width":"198.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 ","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":189.06929016,"width":"327.88","height":"8.50","fontName":["BVRIAQ+VnxxvjKxlcpvTrncyxTimesLTStd-Bold","MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":57,"change":"Addition","str":"International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ), which permits use, sharing, ","line":31,"x":53.85829925,"y":179.07328796,"width":"334.74","height":"8.50","fontName":["MOGBYU+NlttbmRrqjxqWvxgqcTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"5 © The Author(s) 2019 ","line":0,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181,"width":"81.39","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske (ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , ","line":1,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961,"width":"210.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","VZMDTX+CwjlgqLvlqkdLrqllqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"Abstract This chapter sets the context for the climate and energy scenario develop -","line":6,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531,"width":"325.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold","VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"past decade. Trends in the power-, transport- and heating sector in regard to technolo -","line":12,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"2.1 Scientific Status Quo of Climate Change Research","line":15,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":325.14169311,"width":"270.77","height":"12.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"2.1.1 Basics of Climate Change and Radiative Forcing","line":19,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":229.14169311,"width":"265.68","height":"12.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"Roughly half (165 W/m 2 ) the incoming short-wave radiation (340 W/m 2 ) reaches the ","line":22,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":177.14169311,"width":"334.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske ( * ) ","line":23,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":149.6519928,"width":"46.84","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","FBKGDD+XhkpnmFpbkdgDhtgnmWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au","line":25,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":129.6599884,"width":"103.46","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":58,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au ; kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au","line":29,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":84.669487,"width":"254.71","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"scattering gases, such as N 2 and O 2 (100  W/m 2 ) or is absorbed by the troposphere ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":583.65979003,"width":"335.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"(75 W/m 2 ) (Stephens et al. 2012 ). With the exception of clouds and aerosols, this win -","line":3,"x":53.85879135,"y":573.15979003,"width":"331.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"There is a second window for radiation, through which outgoing long-wave radi -","line":10,"x":65.85919952,"y":489.15979003,"width":"319.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"vapour, humanity is now adding more layers of absorbers of other long-wave radia -","line":20,"x":53.85919952,"y":369.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"existing curtain and closing the curtain further across the long-wave radiation win -","line":22,"x":53.85919952,"y":345.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"dow. Compared with the overall incoming solar radiation at 340 W/m 2 , the ‘curtain’ ","line":23,"x":53.85919952,"y":333.15979003,"width":"333.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"generated by human-induced increases in the concentrations of long-lived green -","line":24,"x":53.8548088,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"house gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , halocarbons, N 2 O and fluorinated gases) appears to be of ","line":25,"x":53.8548088,"y":307.65979003,"width":"334.80","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"little importance, as it “only” amounts to 2.83 W/m 2 . The addition and subtraction ","line":26,"x":53.86120986,"y":297.15979003,"width":"334.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"(year 2011) forcing of 2.29 W/m 2 .","line":28,"x":53.86071014,"y":273.15979003,"width":"136.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"2.1.1.1 Anthropogenic Contribution","line":29,"x":53.85718917,"y":239.15979003,"width":"149.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"anthropogenic activities. In fact, the human-induced release of GHGs into the atmo -","line":31,"x":53.85718917,"y":203.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"2.1.1.2 Carbon Budget and Future Warming","line":37,"x":53.85718917,"y":109.15979003,"width":"186.38","height":"10.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":59,"change":"Addition","str":"dominant influence: carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions.","line":41,"x":53.85718917,"y":47.65980148,"width":"212.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"It is not only the magnitude of the anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 that makes it ","line":1,"x":65.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"322.07","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"difference between CO 2 and almost all other GHGs and aerosols. Over the time ","line":3,"x":53.85741043,"y":571.65979003,"width":"335.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"scales of interest here, CO 2 does not have a finite lifetime in the atmosphere. All ","line":4,"x":53.85800933,"y":559.65979003,"width":"335.00","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"for example, consumed by the bacteria in soils. However, once CO 2 is released from ","line":6,"x":53.85570144,"y":535.65979003,"width":"333.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"and the atmosphere. Therefore, if CO 2 is added to one, the level in all three pools ","line":9,"x":53.85411834,"y":499.65979003,"width":"334.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"example, whereas CO 2 is consumed by plants during the photosynthesis process and ","line":11,"x":53.85541152,"y":475.65979003,"width":"333.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"then built into plant tissue as carbon, this same carbon is released again as CO 2","line":12,"x":53.85990142,"y":463.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"and other animals oxidize the food they eat. Therefore, a kilogram of CO 2 emissions ","line":14,"x":53.86180114,"y":439.65979003,"width":"333.80","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"will increase the atmospheric CO 2 concentration for hundreds or even thousands of ","line":15,"x":53.85630035,"y":427.65979003,"width":"334.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"years. Initially, the average CO 2 concentration will shoot up by that kilogram, and ","line":16,"x":53.86080932,"y":415.65979003,"width":"334.57","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report highlighted this key difference between CO 2","line":19,"x":65.85559844,"y":379.65979003,"width":"319.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"and other GHGs. The airborne fraction of CO 2 emissions diminishes over time, as ","line":20,"x":53.86180114,"y":367.65979003,"width":"334.55","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"for other GHGs. However, the airborne CO 2 fraction does not decline to zero over ","line":21,"x":53.8592987,"y":355.65979003,"width":"334.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"mechanisms mean that higher CO 2 concentrations cause more carbon to remain in ","line":23,"x":53.85950088,"y":331.65979003,"width":"334.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"the atmosphere. Acting in the other direction, any extra amount of CO 2 in the atmo -","line":24,"x":53.86029815,"y":319.65979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"sphere will have less and less effect on radiative forcing, i.e., how much each CO 2","line":25,"x":53.85509872,"y":307.65979003,"width":"331.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"caused by CO 2 emissions. In other words, every extra kilogram of CO 2 produces a ","line":33,"x":53.86180114,"y":211.6598053,"width":"334.49","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"slightly greater increase in temperature than the preceding kilogram, and the warm -","line":34,"x":53.85749816,"y":201.1598053,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"100 or 500 years. Over time, less of the CO 2 will remain in the atmosphere, but the ","line":36,"x":53.85749816,"y":175.6598053,"width":"334.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 that has ever been emitted, largely independent of when a certain amount of ","line":42,"x":53.86211013,"y":103.65979766,"width":"334.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 was emitted in the past. Based on this understanding, we can compute the car -","line":43,"x":53.8580017,"y":91.65979766,"width":"331.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"unknown amount of warming arises in response to other GHG emissions and aero -","line":45,"x":53.85799026,"y":69.15979766,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":60,"change":"Addition","str":"2 State of Research","line":46,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"66.59","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"is the sum of the linear CO 2 -induced warming level (often described as the ‘tran -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":571.65979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"sient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon’) and a smaller and some -","line":4,"x":53.8567009,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"2.1.2 Carbon Budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":505.15979003,"width":"258.99","height":"12.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"a multi-gas world) that would be consistent with, for example, temperatures main -","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"emit 1320 GtCO 2 before reaching 2.0  °C warming (66% chance) and 770 GtCO 2","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":307.65979003,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"further 100 GtCO 2 to account for the additional Earth system feedback that has ","line":23,"x":53.86180114,"y":283.65979003,"width":"335.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"historical temperature evolution is used (i.e., calculated by consistently using prox -","line":25,"x":53.8536911,"y":261.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"The substantial difference between these two sets of figures (and also their dif -","line":34,"x":65.8536911,"y":153.15979003,"width":"319.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"e.g., Schurer et al. 2017 , 2018 ; Hawkins et al. 2017 ). As already mentioned, one of ","line":37,"x":53.8536911,"y":117.15979003,"width":"334.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"the key factors in deriving a carbon budget is the estimated current level of warm -","line":38,"x":53.8536911,"y":105.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":61,"change":"Addition","str":"‘hiatus’ period substantially influences the level of warming that is taken as a start -","line":41,"x":53.8536911,"y":69.1597824,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"recent upswing in the global mean temperatures gives us an idea of how much natu -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"discussion in the determination of carbon budgets include the pre-industrial warm -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"ing level and the already-mentioned amount of warming induced by non-CO 2 gases.","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":547.65979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"This study does not aim to resolve the differences in opinions about carbon bud -","line":6,"x":65.86250305,"y":537.15979003,"width":"319.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"undoubtedly allowed great growth in prosperity across the globe, but their replace -","line":17,"x":53.86249923,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"2.2 Development of Energy Markets—Past and Present","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":337.15979003,"width":"279.08","height":"12.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"power, heating, and transport sectors up to the year of writing (2018). These devel -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"global context. The research and data in Sect. 2.2.1 are based on the REN21 ","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":249.15979003,"width":"336.31","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"2.2.1 Global Trends in Renewable Energy in 2018","line":28,"x":53.85829925,"y":193.1598053,"width":"243.45","height":"12.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+MsgvqrMjxxtlDjlkftTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"In 2017, ongoing trends continued: solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power domi -","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":165.1598053,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"nated the global market for new power plants, the price of renewable energy tech -","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":153.1598053,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"existing fossil fuel power plants in some markets (Malik 2017 ). Electrification of ","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":117.15979766,"width":"334.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":62,"change":"Addition","str":"2 State of Research","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"66.59","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"increases in the coal, gas, and nuclear capacities (FS-UNEP 2018 ). Storage is ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"336.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"2018 ). However, bioenergy (including traditional biomass) remains the leading ","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"336.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"overall energy demand (except for the drop in 2009 after the global economic reces -","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"Since 2013, the global energy-related CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels have ","line":18,"x":65.85829925,"y":391.65979003,"width":"324.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"changed in 2017, with global CO 2 emissions growing by around 1.4% (REN21-","line":20,"x":53.8597908,"y":367.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"GSR 2018 ). These increased emissions were primarily due to increased coal con -","line":21,"x":53.85990142,"y":357.15979003,"width":"331.05","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"2018 ). This increased Chinese consumption, as well as steady growth of around 4% ","line":23,"x":53.85990142,"y":333.15979003,"width":"333.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"global decline observed from 2013 to 2016 (ENERDATA 2018 ).","line":25,"x":53.85990142,"y":309.15979003,"width":"257.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"the United Kingdom (Carrington 2017 ). An increasing number of companies who ","line":29,"x":53.85990142,"y":261.15979003,"width":"334.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"business (Shearer 2017 ). Also in 2017, 26 of 28 European Union member states ","line":31,"x":53.85990142,"y":237.15979003,"width":"335.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"year, announced plans to become coal-free by 2030 (Campbell 2017 ).","line":34,"x":53.85990142,"y":201.15979003,"width":"278.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"still almost double the prices from 1996 to 2005 (Statista 2018 ). Natural gas prices ","line":37,"x":53.85990142,"y":165.15977478,"width":"334.24","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"decreased further in 2017 (BP 2017 ). Low fossil fuel prices have challenged renew -","line":39,"x":53.85990142,"y":141.15977478,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"able energy markets, especially in the heating and transport sectors (IEA-RE 2016 ).","line":40,"x":53.85990142,"y":129.15977478,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":63,"change":"Addition","str":"The value of direct global fossil fuel consumption subsidies in 2016 was esti -","line":41,"x":65.85990142,"y":117.1597824,"width":"319.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"2018 ). The value of fossil fuel subsidies also increases by an order of magnitude if ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"334.24","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"externalities are considered (IMF 2015 ). Although the Group of Twenty (G20) reaf -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"civil society to both increase transparency and accelerate the process (G20- 2017 ). ","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"334.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"The main problems identified include that the G20 has not defined ‘inefficient sub -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"commitments (Asmelash 2017 ).","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003,"width":"128.05","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a technical meet -","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) (UNFCCC 2017 ). Although renewable ","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"335.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"renewable energy commitments could be ramped up (Timberley 2017 ).","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":393.15979003,"width":"284.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"regions have introduced 100% renewable energy targets. The number of cities pow -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"and Oslo (CDP-WEB 2018 ).","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"114.99","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"2016 . In December 2017 (REN21-GSR 2018 ), China launched the first phase of its ","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003,"width":"334.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman","VZMDTX+CwjlgqLvlqkdLrqllqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"power companies emitting more than 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 annually (Xu and ","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":259.65979003,"width":"335.55","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"Mason 2017 ). For comparison, the emissions trading scheme of the European Union ","line":30,"x":53.85348892,"y":249.15979003,"width":"334.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"included around 1.7 billion tonnes of CO 2 in 2016 (EC 2017 ). Reforms to the ","line":31,"x":53.85348892,"y":235.6598053,"width":"335.96","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"certificates (Agora 2018 ).","line":34,"x":53.8567009,"y":201.1598053,"width":"102.47","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"plants larger than 50 megawatts [MW]) was USD 280 billion (REN21-GSR 2018 ), ","line":36,"x":53.8567009,"y":177.1598053,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"Europe since about 2010, with a drop of 30% from 2016 to 2017 (UNEP-FS 2018 ).","line":45,"x":53.8567009,"y":69.15979766,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":64,"change":"Addition","str":"2 State of Research","line":46,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"66.59","height":"8.50","fontName":["VZMDTX+DdrwxxLqxklyJnbhfvTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"with more than 70% of deals involving solar PV or wind, and 16% involving biofu -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"els (Bloomberg 2017 ). However, this is dwarfed by the spending of these companies ","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"333.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"(Schneyer and Bousso 2018 ). Bank finance for fossil fuels increased in 2017 by ","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"335.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"11% relative to that in 2016, after a significant decline in 2016 (RAN 2018 ).","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"304.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"transport—is gaining increasing attention as a way to increase the uptake of renew -","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"ables by the transport and thermal sectors. Sector coupling also allows the integra -","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"hydropower. Several USA states are examining options for electrification, specifi -","line":22,"x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"cally to increase the overall renewable energy share (NEEP 2017 ).","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"265.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"2.2.1.1 Trends in the Renewable Power Sector","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003,"width":"192.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["FBKGDD+TgytvtDqsrjtPqxhkhTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"power. Wind and hydropower installations were in second and third positions, con -","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"respectively (REN21-GSR 2018 ).","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478,"width":"134.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"global power-generating capacity, up from 63% in 2016 (REN21-GSR 2018 ). The ","line":36,"x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478,"width":"334.34","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"energy in many markets, and even with existing fossil fuel generation in some mar -","line":39,"x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824,"width":"331.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":65,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity generation. Offshore wind prices also fell significantly in 2017, as com -","line":42,"x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":66,"change":"Addition","str":"By the end of 2017, the countries with the greatest total installed renewable elec -","line":3,"x":65.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"319.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["VZMDTX+QjfkjqRrbhprHjqhbmTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":66,"change":"Addition","str":"(32%, 10%, and 7%, respectively) (REN21-GSR 2018 ). 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Energy scenarios with high penetrations of variable renewable ","line":21,"x":53.8548088,"y":357.15979003,"width":"333.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"projection of developments in (future) technologies and potential markets; a consis -","line":27,"x":53.8548088,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"tent database of renewable energy potentials and their temporal and spatial distribu -","line":28,"x":53.8548088,"y":273.15979003,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"flows and emissions across all energy subsectors, such as industry, transport, resi -","line":30,"x":53.8548088,"y":249.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"dential, etc.; and a comprehensive assessment of all CO 2 emissions, in order to assess ","line":31,"x":53.8548088,"y":235.6598053,"width":"333.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"Therefore, the time required for infrastructure planning and other substantial trans -","line":40,"x":53.85789871,"y":129.1598053,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"(Elliston and MacGill 2014 ; Teske and Dominish 2016 ; Klaus et al. 2010 ; Teske and ","line":44,"x":53.85789871,"y":81.15979766,"width":"333.49","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":78,"change":"Addition","str":"Brown 2012 ), only a handful of analyses have been performed on a global level. 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{"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"3.6.2 Occupational Employment Modelling","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324,"width":"209.90","height":"12.00","fontName":["RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"The quantitative employment model documented in Sect. 3.6.1 were further devel -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"oped to analyse the qualitative occupational composition of employment in the fos -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":555.79382324,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"provide a richer picture of the composition of this employment change. The meth -","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":363.79382324,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"across a range of developed and developing nations, IRENA has estimated the per -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":303.79382324,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"and offshore wind farm supply chains (IRENA 2017 ). Figure  3.11 is an example (in ","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":279.79382324,"width":"334.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"application of IRENA’s work. Chapter 10 provides more details about the methodol -","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":231.79380798,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"3.7 Material and Metal Resources Analysis (UTS-ISF)","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":175.79379272,"width":"272.43","height":"12.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"3.7.1 Methodology—Material and Metal Resources Analysis","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":149.78979492,"width":"294.91","height":"12.00","fontName":["RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"Chap. 6 .","line":38,"x":53.85829925,"y":73.79380035,"width":"33.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":109,"change":"Addition","str":"3 Methodology","line":39,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"50.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"When assuming that the introduced amount of specific technologies in year t is l t , ","line":7,"x":65.85829925,"y":235.69450378,"width":"322.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"the accumulated stock amount in year t (generation capacity or in-use stock) is S t , and ","line":8,"x":53.85678863,"y":223.69450378,"width":"333.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"the discarded amount in year t is O t , can be expressed by:","line":9,"x":53.85330963,"y":211.69450378,"width":"227.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"SS IO tt tt =+ − − 1 (3.1)","line":10,"x":186.20199584,"y":187.50700378,"width":"225.80","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+HwpmsnFtgshfNycmdvTimesLTStd-Italic","CYMZWE+WnljlfVhlmlkYpmbjmSymbolMT","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"Where O t depends on the number of use years of each product. This use year ","line":11,"x":65.85830688,"y":164.69450378,"width":"322.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"distribution. Therefore, if the number of use years of the product is assumed as a , ","line":14,"x":53.86270141,"y":130.19450378,"width":"334.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"lifetime distribution can be defined as g (a) . Hence, is given by following:","line":15,"x":53.86270141,"y":116.69450378,"width":"288.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"OI ga t","line":16,"x":187.23330688,"y":84.50700378,"width":"81.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["CYMZWE+RfkmlmCbwfhrNjlfsrTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"ta = ()","line":19,"x":199.82699584,"y":84.50700378,"width":"38.77","height":"13.43","fontName":["CYMZWE+RfkmlmCbwfhrNjlfsrTimesLTStd-Italic","CYMZWE+FqsltlTjdspvJgbmhfSymbolMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"− ∑","line":21,"x":208.01449584,"y":84.50782775,"width":"13.87","height":"15.00","fontName":["CYMZWE+FqsltlTjdspvJgbmhfSymbolMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"ma x (3.2)","line":23,"x":210.76449584,"y":87.19450378,"width":"26.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["CYMZWE+SxssfpCjrrymFffxnmTimesLTStd-Roman","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"4% Quality control","line":25,"x":234.67230224,"y":582.43817138,"width":"57.62","height":"7.91","fontName":["HWUTOU+WmhlxyKwpmbbVtkhlsCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 3.11 Distribution of human resources required to manufacture the main components of a ","line":41,"x":53.85829925,"y":344.02441406,"width":"329.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":110,"change":"Addition","str":"50 MW solar photovoltaic power plant. (IRENA 2017 )","line":42,"x":53.85829925,"y":334.02841186,"width":"186.17","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Where a max is the maximum value of the product life. Therefore ,I t can be calcu -","line":1,"x":65.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"319.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"lated with equation ( 3.3 ).","line":2,"x":53.85668945,"y":585.15979003,"width":"100.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"IS SI ga tt t","line":3,"x":168.85830688,"y":551.47229003,"width":"163.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CYMZWE+JnnmwhRppsbdNjtrhcTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"ta =− + () −","line":6,"x":178.35830688,"y":551.47229003,"width":"77.89","height":"13.43","fontName":["CYMZWE+JnnmwhRppsbdNjtrhcTimesLTStd-Italic","CYMZWE+LlcbxwCjblldRrfmkqSymbolMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"− ∑ 1","line":8,"x":214.10830688,"y":551.47229003,"width":"16.76","height":"15.00","fontName":["CYMZWE+LlcbxwCjblldRrfmkqSymbolMT","CYMZWE+XmxrchHpvfbwGtgfhrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"ma x (3.3)","line":10,"x":229.92080688,"y":554.15979003,"width":"26.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["CYMZWE+XmxrchHpvfbwGtgfhrTimesLTStd-Roman","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"the products described above, with the key assumptions shown in Table  3.8 .","line":12,"x":53.8583107,"y":511.15979003,"width":"302.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"equation ( 3.3 ), the metal demand for technology p in year t is estimated as:","line":14,"x":53.8583107,"y":487.15979003,"width":"299.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Demand IM etal intensity pt pt pt ,, , =⋅ (3.4)","line":15,"x":150.85830688,"y":461.47229003,"width":"254.38","height":"10.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+YctbqfJtrbjwNbgjgfTimes-Italic","RYSWYA+SttfqgYhbwvtSrrmhqTimes-Roman","CYMZWE+BkhypbHgxfqqVvqjgySymbolMT","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Where Metal intensity p,t is the amount of required metal in technology p in year ","line":16,"x":65.85830688,"y":437.65979003,"width":"319.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"t . Because this value can change over time with technological developments, we ","line":17,"x":53.85979843,"y":427.15979003,"width":"335.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"The demand estimated with equation ( 3.4 ) indicates the total metal requirements ","line":20,"x":65.85980224,"y":391.15979003,"width":"321.96","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Therefore, we evaluated the effects of recycling by estimating the potential reduction ","line":25,"x":53.85979843,"y":331.15979003,"width":"333.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"in primary production entailed. When the recycling of end-of-life products is con -","line":26,"x":53.85979843,"y":319.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"sidered, primary production is given by equation ( 3.5 ).","line":27,"x":53.85979843,"y":307.15979003,"width":"218.46","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Primar yp roduction Demand Discar dR ecyclin gr at e pt pt pt p ,, , =− ⋅ (3.5)","line":28,"x":91.35829925,"y":281.47229003,"width":"495.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+LkkmwjJfmwhjJqsdrnTimes-Italic","RYSWYA+SttfqgYhbwvtSrrmhqTimes-Roman","CYMZWE+StydcbYcsxcnRbpthnSymbolMT","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Where Discard p,t is end-of-life technology in year , and is estimated from the ","line":29,"x":65.85830688,"y":257.65979003,"width":"322.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Weibull distribution, and the Recycling rate p indicates the proportion of metals ","line":30,"x":53.85950088,"y":245.6598053,"width":"335.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman","XYDAEO+HjtskvTgsfgjSbnbnyTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"recovered from end-of-life technology. Since this value can be increased by techno -","line":31,"x":53.85499954,"y":235.1598053,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"This recycling rate is based on the rate of recycling of the metal within the tech -","line":34,"x":65.85500335,"y":199.1598053,"width":"319.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"nology (e.g., silver discarded from solar panels can be recycled into new solar pan -","line":35,"x":53.85499954,"y":187.1598053,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.8 Key assumptions","line":40,"x":53.85829925,"y":111.22750091,"width":"90.73","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Technology Lifetime (years) Shape parameter","line":41,"x":56.692901610000014,"y":96.9720011,"width":"151.89","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Solar PV 30 5.38","line":42,"x":56.68439865000001,"y":84.32399848,"width":"54.31","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"Battery 8 3.5","line":43,"x":56.675891870000015,"y":72.49199774,"width":"39.90","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":111,"change":"Addition","str":"3 Methodology","line":44,"x":53.836891170000015,"y":623.6575327099999,"width":"50.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"Ultimately, the mineral requirements estimated with equations ( 3.4 ) and ( 3.5 ) ","line":1,"x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"322.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"under the various assumptions were compared with metal reserves and annual pro -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"with the current technologies and at the current metal price, and can change signifi -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"rapid increase in requirements. The key results are presented in Chap. 11 .","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":501.15979003,"width":"293.39","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8 Climate Model","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":457.15979003,"width":"91.32","height":"12.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8.1 Deriving Non-CO 2 GHG Pathways","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":429.35980224,"width":"195.33","height":"12.00","fontName":["RXZLYA+BcdfsfHdkjrkMdtlhjTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"This section provides an overview of the methodology that has been used to com -","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":403.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"plement the energy-related CO 2 emission pathways for non-energy-related CO 2","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":389.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"The energy-related CO 2 emissions were derived using energy-system modelling ","line":15,"x":65.86180114,"y":365.65979003,"width":"322.25","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"frameworks, but two different approaches have been used to derive the land-use CO 2","line":16,"x":53.8586998,"y":353.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"statistical analysis of currently published scenarios. To derive non-CO 2 pathways ","line":19,"x":53.86180114,"y":317.65979003,"width":"335.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"that are consistent with the relevant emission mitigation levels, the non-CO 2 emis -","line":20,"x":53.85599136,"y":305.65979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"sions were regressed against the fossil fuel and industrial CO 2 emissions. These ","line":21,"x":53.86241912,"y":293.65979003,"width":"335.26","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"regression characteristics were then used to derive the non-CO 2 emissions. This ","line":22,"x":53.8630104,"y":281.65979003,"width":"335.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"Meinshausen et al. ( 2006 ).","line":25,"x":53.85881042,"y":247.15979003,"width":"106.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"gas- emission scenarios in the literature is that regional and sectoral definitions differ ","line":27,"x":53.85881042,"y":223.15979003,"width":"333.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"categories and regions have been adopted in this analysis of non-CO 2 emission path -","line":30,"x":53.85881042,"y":185.6598053,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8.1.1 Regional Definitions","line":32,"x":53.86288833,"y":139.1598053,"width":"113.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":112,"change":"Addition","str":"First, the regional energy-related CO 2 emissions developed in the previous sections ","line":33,"x":53.86288833,"y":113.65979766,"width":"334.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"membership status as of 1990), ASIA (Asian countries), REF (economies in transi -","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":460.47140502,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"tion), LAM (Latin America), and MAF (Middle East and Africa). Table  3.9 (above) ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":448.47140502,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"regions described in this report. As an indicator of how different the regional defini -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":424.47140502,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"tions are, we used the fossil fuel and industrial emissions for the year 2015 accord -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":412.47140502,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"ing to the 2017 update of the PRIMAP database (Gütschow et al. 2016 ).","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":400.47140502,"width":"288.05","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.9 provides an overview to the regional definitions used in this study. The ","line":7,"x":65.85829925,"y":388.47140502,"width":"322.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"top row indicates the regions for the CO 2 fossil and industrial emissions, and the ","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":374.97140502,"width":"335.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"various rows refer to the five regions used in IAMs. To derive the non-CO 2 emis -","line":9,"x":53.86320114,"y":362.97140502,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"industrial emissions in the year 2015 in MtCO 2 , aggregated from country-level data. ","line":11,"x":53.86310958,"y":338.97140502,"width":"333.79","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.9 Regional definitions according to the Integrated Assessment Modelling ","line":13,"x":65.86190795,"y":316.47140502,"width":"322.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"shown with the 2015 fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions. For example, the first row ","line":16,"x":53.86191177,"y":278.97140502,"width":"333.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"MtCO 2 of emissions.","line":18,"x":53.85948944,"y":254.97140502,"width":"83.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"The transfer of the energy-related CO 2 emission results to fit the IAM’s regional ","line":19,"x":65.8580017,"y":242.97140502,"width":"322.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"applied to the 2015 energy-related country-level CO 2 emissions from the PRIMAP ","line":22,"x":53.86000061,"y":206.97140502,"width":"334.31","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8.1.2 Harmonization: Emission Category Adjustments","line":25,"x":53.85419082,"y":148.47140502,"width":"235.55","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Before proceeding with the application of CO 2 versus non-CO 2 statistical relation -","line":26,"x":53.85419082,"y":122.9713974,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"ships, a harmonization step is necessary. Various IAM use slightly different catego -","line":27,"x":53.85739898,"y":112.4713974,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Asia Africa","line":31,"x":99.74060058,"y":569.53692626,"width":"22.82","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Am er Eurasia Chin a Indi a","line":36,"x":204.60629272,"y":569.53692626,"width":"50.77","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Am erica","line":38,"x":308.30630493,"y":569.53692626,"width":"18.04","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Oceani a Subtotal","line":41,"x":335.38031005,"y":569.53692626,"width":"34.52","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"RCP5_Asi a 1,561 - - - 19 21 8,826 1,985 - 674 13 ,0 86","line":42,"x":57.88019943,"y":557.65802001,"width":"104.95","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+WynkvtXxtvxvNkvlxmTimesNewRomanPSMT","HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"RCP5_RE F - 720 - - - 2,153 - - - - 2,873 ","line":43,"x":57.88019943,"y":545.8317871,"width":"73.98","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"RCP5_MA F - - 1,174 2,021 - - - - - - 3,195 ","line":44,"x":57.88019943,"y":533.95880126,"width":"79.61","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"RCP5_OECD 9","line":45,"x":57.88019943,"y":522.1326294,"width":"31.86","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"0 2 3,031 - - - - - - 5,766 1,577 10 ,3 76","line":46,"x":57.88019943,"y":516.19598388,"width":"70.55","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"RCP5_LA M - - - - 1,216 - - - 461 - 1,676 ","line":47,"x":57.88019943,"y":504.3171997,"width":"75.98","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Subtotal 1,563 3,751 1,174 2,021 1,235 2,174 8,826 1,985 6,226 2,251 31 ,2 06","line":48,"x":57.88019943,"y":492.48999023,"width":"162.72","height":"5.18","fontName":["HWUTOU+HsfmgfQlwhtgGjclvpTimesNewRomanPSMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.9 Regional definitions according to the Integrated Assessment Modelling community","line":50,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.18432617,"width":"314.87","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":113,"change":"Addition","str":"3 Methodology","line":51,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65032958,"width":"50.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"have either been scaled or shifted towards a common reference point. A recent his -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"were related to the CO 2 fossil and industrial emission categories (such as waste-","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":511.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 emission chapters. The scenarios from which these ‘other’ energy-related CO 2","line":10,"x":53.85609817,"y":487.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Scenario). In the second harmonization step, the overall sum of the complemented ","line":14,"x":53.86180114,"y":441.15979003,"width":"334.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario CO 2 emissions were compared with the overall fossil and ","line":15,"x":53.86180114,"y":427.65979003,"width":"333.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"industrial sum of CO 2 emissions in the year 2015, which were used for scenario ","line":16,"x":53.8600998,"y":415.65979003,"width":"335.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"harmonization under the CMIP6 ScenarioMIP process (Meinshausen et al., in prep -","line":17,"x":53.86148834,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"complemented energy scenarios (see Chapter 8 ) and the harmonization emission ","line":19,"x":53.86148834,"y":381.15979003,"width":"335.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"levels for the various regions. These differences could again have resulted from dif -","line":20,"x":53.86148834,"y":369.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"raw and regionally disaggregated energy scenario emissions towards the harmoni -","line":24,"x":53.86148834,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"zation emission levels. Figure  3.12 shows the differences between the raw emission ","line":25,"x":53.86148834,"y":309.15979003,"width":"334.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"harmonization fossil and industrial CO 2 emission levels for 2015 (in GtC). The dif -","line":27,"x":53.86148834,"y":283.65979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"0.87 0.78","line":31,"x":201.97419738,"y":135.44848632,"width":"24.82","height":"7.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"0.46 0.35","line":32,"x":286.0302124,"y":124.7244873,"width":"24.82","height":"7.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"0.63 0.51 0.48","line":36,"x":256.34320068,"y":127.6574936,"width":"37.23","height":"7.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Asia OECD90 MAF REF LAM BUNKERS","line":43,"x":123.35479736,"y":104.58049774,"width":"112.55","height":"8.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Harmonisation of Fossil & Industry CO 2 Emissions","line":46,"x":145.01119995,"y":217.63310241,"width":"180.25","height":"9.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"5.0C (Reference) Harmonised Fossil & Industrial","line":47,"x":135.81440734,"y":89.19450378,"width":"153.10","height":"8.00","fontName":["HWUTOU+RgptjqBjcnlgPrdbsmCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":114,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 3.12 Differences between the raw LDF emission scenario data","line":48,"x":53.85829925,"y":69.15200042,"width":"225.20","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8.1.3 A New Quantile Regression Method for Non-CO 2 Gases","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"264.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"The completed fossil and industrial CO 2 emission time series can now be compared ","line":2,"x":53.85588836,"y":571.65979003,"width":"333.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"literature- reported studies are either reference scenarios or mitigation scenarios ","line":5,"x":53.85549926,"y":537.15979003,"width":"336.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"levels of change, others for 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalence concentrations, and yet oth -","line":7,"x":53.85549926,"y":511.65979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"approach. In summary, the input assumptions of all these literature-reported sce -","line":9,"x":53.86019897,"y":489.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"behind them that provides first-level assurance that the envisaged CO 2 , methane, ","line":11,"x":53.86019897,"y":463.65979003,"width":"335.27","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"This study and the approach it uses are not dependent on absolute levels of miti -","line":17,"x":65.85559844,"y":393.15979003,"width":"319.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"required to reduce CO 2 emissions. Therefore, using the emission characteristics ","line":20,"x":53.85559844,"y":355.65979003,"width":"335.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"technological feasibility, economic mitigation costs, and implementation opportuni -","line":22,"x":53.86289978,"y":333.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"ties will be required to reduce emissions of CO 2 and various other gases.","line":23,"x":53.86289978,"y":319.65979003,"width":"289.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"More specifically, we derived the non-CO 2 emissions in a particular year by ","line":24,"x":65.85610961,"y":307.65979003,"width":"323.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"ranking all the scenarios against the indicator of fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions ","line":25,"x":53.85770034,"y":295.65979003,"width":"333.94","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"in that year (see Fig.  3.11 below). By comparing them to the ‘crowd’ of other ","line":26,"x":53.85660171,"y":285.15979003,"width":"334.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"literature- reported scenarios, the LDF pathways could also be ranked. Specifically, ","line":27,"x":53.85660171,"y":273.15979003,"width":"334.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"distribution of the fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions across all 811 scenarios con-","line":29,"x":53.85660171,"y":247.6598053,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"scenario distribution (see Fig.  3.13 ).","line":35,"x":53.8603897,"y":177.1598053,"width":"144.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 3.13 shows the 1.5  °C and 2.0  °C Scenarios, their absolute fossil and ","line":36,"x":65.8603897,"y":165.1598053,"width":"322.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"industry CO 2 emissions until 2050 (upper panel), and their respective locations in ","line":37,"x":53.8603897,"y":151.6598053,"width":"334.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"scenario extensions were extrapolated differently for fossil and industrial CO 2 and ","line":39,"x":53.8611908,"y":127.65979766,"width":"334.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"the non-CO 2 gases. To derive the non-CO 2 gases, the 2050 percentile location was ","line":40,"x":53.86019897,"y":115.65979766,"width":"334.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"industrial CO 2 emissions in the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, which do not assume ","line":42,"x":53.85519027,"y":91.65979766,"width":"334.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":115,"change":"Addition","str":"3 Methodology","line":43,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"50.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"emission level was assumed (straight constant emission level in the upper panel cor -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":202.35710144,"width":"331.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8.1.4 ‘Pseudo’ Fossil and Industrial CO 2 Extensions Beyond 2050","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":140.85710144,"width":"281.43","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"By the end of the century, almost 40% of all of 811 scenarios will feature net nega -","line":6,"x":53.85710144,"y":118.35710144,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"tive fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions, largely because there is some level of bio -","line":7,"x":53.85710144,"y":104.85710144,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 0%","line":17,"x":85.43740081,"y":338.97750454999994,"width":"200.00","height":"8.44","fontName":["RYSWYA+XlhkqrKjnnnpXyfrmgHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"2 Emissions (","line":26,"x":81.25440216,"y":511.3420105,"width":"51.61","height":"10.13","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"Pe rcentile of Global ","line":29,"x":62.33950042,"y":355.94250488,"width":"84.02","height":"10.13","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"Fo ssil ","line":30,"x":62.33950042,"y":440.20770263,"width":"24.81","height":"10.13","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"5.0C (Ref erence)","line":32,"x":239.19129943,"y":448.87850952,"width":"57.06","height":"8.44","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"5.0C (Ref erence)","line":33,"x":235.53495788,"y":581.89996337,"width":"57.06","height":"8.44","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"LDF 2.0C LDF 1.5C","line":34,"x":129.42515563,"y":522.7145996,"width":"61.64","height":"8.44","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"Theoretical post-2050 percentil e","line":37,"x":245.4439087,"y":407.9395752,"width":"91.14","height":"6.76","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"within set of 811 scenarios (incl. BEC CS)","line":39,"x":226.0832367,"y":391.72686767,"width":"110.44","height":"6.76","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"under constant post-2050 percentil e","line":41,"x":175.7494812,"y":480.1942749,"width":"102.60","height":"6.76","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"Assumed constant post-2050 percentil e","line":42,"x":259.4003601,"y":357.51800537,"width":"111.76","height":"6.76","fontName":["RYSWYA+BbhhmtKhhfrxDfrlsdMyriadPro-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 3.13 The 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and their absolute fossil and industry CO 2 emissions ","line":44,"x":53.85829925,"y":317.9119873,"width":"328.62","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"until 2050. The energy-related CO 2 emissions pathways from the other chapters are used until ","line":45,"x":53.85900878,"y":307.9119873,"width":"334.78","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":116,"change":"Addition","str":"2050, and then extended beyond 2050 by either keeping the CO 2 emissions constant (in the case of ","line":46,"x":53.86100006,"y":297.9119873,"width":"333.54","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"level of mitigation effort. Therefore, to derive non-CO 2 emissions that involve a ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":583.65979003,"width":"335.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"energy-related CO 2 emissions, we assumed that the energy scenarios developed for ","line":4,"x":53.85931015,"y":559.65979003,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"the twenty-first century. Therefore, whereas the actual fossil and industrial CO 2","line":7,"x":53.85990142,"y":523.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"emissions in the LDF scenarios are assumed to remain constant at zero, the non-CO 2","line":8,"x":53.86180114,"y":511.65979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"(see the lower panel in Fig.  3.13 ).","line":11,"x":53.86180114,"y":477.15979003,"width":"134.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"We now have the fossil and industrial CO 2 emission levels throughout the twenty-","line":12,"x":65.86180114,"y":463.65979003,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"‘pseudo’ CO 2 emission levels for the second half of the twenty-first century. ","line":14,"x":53.86040115,"y":439.65979003,"width":"336.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"Therefore, we can derive the corresponding non-CO 2 emissions.","line":15,"x":53.86100006,"y":427.65979003,"width":"256.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"In the first step, we derived the total non-CO 2 emissions for a specific year and ","line":16,"x":65.8556137,"y":415.65979003,"width":"322.56","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"for the world as a whole. In the second step, we determined the shares of global fos -","line":17,"x":53.86080932,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"against the overall fossil CO 2 emission level as an indicator of the ‘stringency’ of the ","line":19,"x":53.86080932,"y":379.65979003,"width":"333.75","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"scenario. In the third step, we disaggregated these fossil and land-use-specific emis -","line":20,"x":53.86040115,"y":369.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"were derived with the same quantile regressions shown in Fig.  3.13 above. With ","line":22,"x":53.86040115,"y":345.15979003,"width":"333.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"ranges are chosen), medium (for a median 50% quantile regression), or higher emis -","line":24,"x":53.86040115,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"method developed earlier (Meinshausen et al. 2006 ) is that the negative correlations ","line":29,"x":53.86040115,"y":261.15979003,"width":"333.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"between CO 2 and other gases can also be taken into account. By performing all ","line":30,"x":53.86040115,"y":247.6598053,"width":"335.36","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"quantile regressions in the space defined by the global fossil and industrial CO 2","line":31,"x":53.86260986,"y":235.6598053,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"emissions in a particular year, any kind of non-linear, positive or negative relation -","line":32,"x":53.86180114,"y":225.1598053,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"ship with other non-CO 2 gas emission levels, sectoral divisions, or regional divi -","line":33,"x":53.86180114,"y":211.6598053,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"scenarios contained details of all the sectoral and regional divisions, but the step -","line":36,"x":53.86008834,"y":177.1598053,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"wise approach of this method can incorporate the characteristics from all the sce -","line":37,"x":53.86008834,"y":165.1598053,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 3.14 shows sample distributions of the emission scenario characteristics for ","line":39,"x":65.86009216,"y":141.1598053,"width":"322.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"and industrial CO 2 emissions, and the y-axis shows the global emission levels of ","line":41,"x":53.8600998,"y":115.65979766,"width":"335.80","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"another GHG, with one marker (blue dot) for each literature-reported scenario consid -","line":42,"x":53.85700988,"y":105.15979766,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"total gas emissions correlate strongly with the fossil and industrial CO 2 emissions ","line":45,"x":53.85700988,"y":67.65979766,"width":"335.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":117,"change":"Addition","str":"3 Methodology","line":46,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"50.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"-5 05 10 15 20 25 -100","line":152,"x":80.70210266,"y":113.79859924,"width":"46.87","height":"2.58","fontName":["RYSWYA+DsljxlLptjfqGqxcbyHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Fossil & Industrial CO 2 Emissions (GtC)","line":164,"x":153.4995575,"y":101.41860198,"width":"131.48","height":"6.35","fontName":["RYSWYA+DsljxlLptjfqGqxcbyHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"-5 05 10 15 20 25 -2","line":165,"x":178.55499267,"y":113.79859924,"width":"44.00","height":"2.58","fontName":["RYSWYA+BgkhrxDrpscmDndtkgHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"-5 05 10 15 20 25 -2","line":173,"x":272.83700561,"y":113.79859924,"width":"44.00","height":"2.58","fontName":["RYSWYA+BgkhrxDrpscmDndtkgHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Emissions (kt) Global Emissions (kt)","line":203,"x":176.34977722,"y":270.08322143,"width":"59.95","height":"3.17","fontName":["RYSWYA+HkcdnhVtqgwfBnbklrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Emissions (kt) Global Emissions (kt) Global Emissions (kt)","line":204,"x":80.61859893,"y":341.6166687,"width":"89.92","height":"3.17","fontName":["RYSWYA+HkcdnhVtqgwfBnbklrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Emissions (Mt) Global Emissions (MtN)","line":205,"x":80.61859893,"y":412.8196106,"width":"64.35","height":"3.17","fontName":["RYSWYA+HkcdnhVtqgwfBnbklrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Emissions (Mt) Global Emissions (Mt)","line":206,"x":80.61859893,"y":482.34759521,"width":"62.06","height":"3.17","fontName":["RYSWYA+HkcdnhVtqgwfBnbklrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Global Emissions (MtCH4) Global Emissions (MtN2O-N) Global Emissions (MtS)","line":207,"x":80.61859893,"y":550.73321533,"width":"111.43","height":"3.17","fontName":["RYSWYA+HkcdnhVtqgwfBnbklrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":118,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 3.14 Example distributions of emissions scenario characteristics","line":210,"x":53.85829925,"y":82.10009765,"width":"231.54","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"(such as the SO X aerosols in the top-right panel), whereas others correlate less strongly. ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"334.08","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"3.8.1.5 Land-Use Assumptions","line":3,"x":53.854599,"y":549.15979003,"width":"126.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"reported as a negative emission in the fossil and industrial CO 2 emission categories. ","line":6,"x":53.854599,"y":499.65979003,"width":"333.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"Therefore, the quantile regression approach can also be applied to the land-use CO 2","line":7,"x":53.86001968,"y":487.65979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"various land-use scenarios, we developed a new (probabilistic) scenario in conjunc -","line":9,"x":53.86180114,"y":465.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"tion with another land-use emission project (Dooley et al. 2018 )","line":10,"x":53.86180114,"y":453.15979003,"width":"255.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"ecosystem restoration’, ‘reforestation’, ‘sustainable use of forests’, and ‘agrofor -","line":13,"x":53.86180114,"y":417.15979003,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"better management of terrestrial ecosystems should allow previously degraded car -","line":15,"x":53.86180114,"y":393.15979003,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"bon stocks to be restored, entailing the removal of significant atmospheric CO 2","line":16,"x":53.86180114,"y":379.65979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"(DeCicco and Schlesinger 2018 ; Law et  al. 2018 ; Mackey et  al. 2013 ; Mackey ","line":17,"x":53.86180114,"y":369.15979003,"width":"335.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"2014 ; Nabuurs et al. 2017 ). We derived the overall pathways separately for the tem -","line":18,"x":53.86180114,"y":357.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"the other. This distinction is largely consistent with the dominant distinction of dif -","line":20,"x":53.86180114,"y":333.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"ferent climate domain characteristics in the literature (Grace et al. 2014 ; Houghton ","line":21,"x":53.86180114,"y":321.15979003,"width":"334.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"and Nassikas 2018 ; Pan et al. 2011 ), although the temperate and boreal biomes are ","line":22,"x":53.86180114,"y":309.15979003,"width":"334.25","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"because several of the RCP regions cross both temperate and boreal biomes. A nar -","line":25,"x":53.86180114,"y":273.15979003,"width":"331.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"rative for each of these pathways is available in Table  3.10 below.","line":26,"x":53.86180114,"y":261.15979003,"width":"261.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"Based on literature studies and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statis -","line":27,"x":65.86180114,"y":249.15979003,"width":"319.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"equilibrium, termed the ‘saturation’ period. At the equilibrium point, these ecosys -","line":36,"x":53.86180114,"y":141.15977478,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"tems have a net zero effect on atmospheric CO 2 over the time scales of interest here ","line":37,"x":53.86180114,"y":127.65979766,"width":"333.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"(Houghton and Nassikas 2018 ). The period over which the maximal sequestration ","line":38,"x":53.85678863,"y":117.15981292,"width":"334.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"change that is achieved over the full period. The difference between a degraded for -","line":42,"x":53.85678863,"y":69.15979766,"width":"331.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":119,"change":"Addition","str":"3 Methodology","line":43,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"50.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 3.10 Narrative for each sequestration pathway per climatic biome","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.17034912,"width":"242.17","height":"8.50","fontName":["XYDAEO+QqjpynNrvgmlJcvqybTimesLTStd-Bold","CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"domain Narrative","line":4,"x":143.75839231999998,"y":573.9188194399999,"width":"57.26","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"Te,B Assume 25% of degraded natural forest put aside for full ","line":11,"x":143.76689144999997,"y":561.2878379999999,"width":"211.50","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"200 years (Luyssaert et al. 2008 ; Roxburgh et al. 2006 ). ","line":14,"x":181.58338926,"y":531.2998008799998,"width":"191.61","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"recent literature (Böttcher et al. 2018 ; Nabuurs et al. 2017 ), ","line":16,"x":181.58338926,"y":511.30782700999976,"width":"203.55","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"S,Tr Assume 25% of degraded natural forests across the tropics ","line":19,"x":143.76689144999997,"y":479.4838218799998,"width":"215.81","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"than in temperate and boreal biomes (Anav et al. 2015 ), ","line":24,"x":181.58338926,"y":429.50381089999985,"width":"191.51","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"(Arneth et al. 2017 ; Poorter et al. 2016 ). Sequestration rates ","line":27,"x":181.58338926,"y":399.5158042999998,"width":"205.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"Te Forest expansion on recently deforested land via natural ","line":36,"x":143.77539059999998,"y":337.7123069999998,"width":"200.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"Nassikas 2018 ).","line":46,"x":181.5918884,"y":237.7523155299998,"width":"54.30","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"S,Tr Natural forest expansion on recently deforested land as ","line":47,"x":143.77539059999998,"y":225.9203147999998,"width":"203.76","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"are in tropical regions (Wheeler et al. in press ). All ","line":50,"x":181.5918884,"y":195.9323234699998,"width":"174.09","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"biodiversity values (Grace et al., 2014 ; Wheeler et al. in ","line":53,"x":181.5918884,"y":165.9443168699998,"width":"191.33","height":"8.50","fontName":["CVNJWE+QxgrwgDmkxwmPsqhksTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":120,"change":"Addition","str":"press ). 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Figure  4.1 below shows the annual sequestration in the ","line":18,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":247.14169311,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"sequestration pathways over time, differentiated into climate domains. The path -","line":19,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":235.14169311,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"ways shown are the results of the Monte Carlo analysis described in Table 3.11 in ","line":20,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":223.14169311,"width":"334.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"Sect. 3.8.1.5 and the text. We focus on the median values (thick lines in Fig.  4.1 ). ","line":21,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":211.14169311,"width":"333.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"Note that the area under the curve for a given pathway is an indication of the cumu -","line":22,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":199.14169311,"width":"331.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"lative CO 2 uptake. By far the most important sequestration may result from large-","line":23,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":185.64169311,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"pathways in Fig.  4.1 below). The second most important pathway in terms of the ","line":25,"x":53.85669993999998,"y":163.14169311,"width":"334.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"amount of CO 2 sequestered is the sustainable use of existing forests, which basically ","line":26,"x":53.85669993999998,"y":149.64169311,"width":"333.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"M. Meinshausen ( * ) · K. Dooley","line":28,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":110.82099914,"width":"114.59","height":"8.50","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","TIMVER+BbklpkVqlbhqRxrgbrWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":131,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au ; kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au","line":31,"x":53.85839746999998,"y":80.83300018,"width":"254.71","height":"8.50","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"achieved in the tropics (Martin et  al. 2015 ), in the temperate and boreal regions, ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":341.54559326,"width":"335.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"these forest ecosystems to reach equilibrium (Roxburgh et al. 2006 ; Luyssaert et al. ","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":293.54559326,"width":"334.01","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"2008 ). The ‘forest ecosystem restoration’ pathway is also important, which basi -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":281.54559326,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"and resilience due to biodiversity (Mackey 2014 ).","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":245.54559326,"width":"198.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"Overall, the median of all the assumed sequestration pathways, shown in Fig.  4.1 , ","line":10,"x":65.85829925,"y":233.54559326,"width":"322.58","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"would result in the sequestration of 151.9 GtC by 2150. This is approximately equiv -","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":221.54559326,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"alent to all historical land-use-related CO 2 emissions to date (Houghton and Nassikas ","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":208.04559326,"width":"333.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"2017 ; Mackey et al. 2013 ). The magnitude of these figures indicates the substantial ","line":13,"x":53.86289978,"y":197.54559326,"width":"334.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"challenges that go hand in hand with these sequestration pathways. Given the com -","line":14,"x":53.86289978,"y":185.54559326,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"peting forms of land use that exist today, the challenge of converting overall terres -","line":15,"x":53.86289978,"y":173.54559326,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"used instead of mitigation. The benefits are clearly manifold, ranging from biodiver -","line":18,"x":53.86289978,"y":137.54559326,"width":"331.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"potentially a reduction in air pollution (Mackey 2014 ). Despite this, terrestrial car -","line":20,"x":53.86289978,"y":113.5456009,"width":"331.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"carbon. Similarly, prolonged droughts in some areas could reverse the gains in ter -","line":23,"x":53.86289978,"y":77.5456009,"width":"331.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"2000 2050 2100 2150 0","line":26,"x":99.71720123,"y":386.03381347,"width":"71.93","height":"7.61","fontName":["SJXPQT+RqllskVqqccnTjbpclHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"(subtropics and tropics) (temperate and boreal)","line":33,"x":276.79840087,"y":444.26846313,"width":"125.20","height":"6.09","fontName":["SJXPQT+RqllskVqqccnTjbpclHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":132,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 4.1 Land-use sequestration pathways showing annual sequestration rates over time","line":49,"x":53.85831067000002,"y":366.37546537000003,"width":"294.18","height":"8.50","fontName":["YSZZWH+PvgvkqLpcflpCgcwwnTimesLTStd-Bold","KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"risk (DellaSala, 2019 ; Lindenmayer and Sato 2018 ), a future mitigation pathway ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"335.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"that relies on sequestration instead of mitigation action is ultimately always more ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"334.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","CYXXAZ+MsmhspSvdlrcKdwslgTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"However, in this study, the land-use CO 2 sequestration pathways complement some ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":559.65979003,"width":"334.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 concentrations that have arisen from the overly high emissions in the past.","line":7,"x":53.86219024,"y":523.65979003,"width":"313.81","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"The thin lines in Fig.  4.1 indicate individual draws in the Monte Carlo analysis. ","line":8,"x":65.8560028,"y":513.15979003,"width":"322.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"The thick lines are the median values from the ensemble of draws for each seques -","line":9,"x":53.855999,"y":501.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"the five RCP regions (Fig.  4.2 ). The country-level data were subject to substantial ","line":12,"x":53.855999,"y":465.15979003,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig.  4.1 , whereas for the 2.0  °C pathway, we assumed that only a third of that ","line":19,"x":53.855999,"y":381.15979003,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"modelling team. As illustrated in Fig.  4.2 , the reference scenario does not assume a ","line":22,"x":53.855999,"y":345.15979003,"width":"334.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"The 2.0  °C pathway (brighter blue in Fig.  4.2 ) aligns relatively well with the ","line":25,"x":65.8560028,"y":309.15979003,"width":"322.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"consistent with the lower land-use CO 2 scenarios analysed here—with mitigation ","line":28,"x":53.85599136,"y":271.65979003,"width":"335.00","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"rates of up to − 2 GtC per annum from 2040 to 2050.","line":29,"x":53.86270141,"y":261.15979003,"width":"210.72","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman","SJXPQT+TvvygxPgfrmyDsgrxlSTIXGeneral-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 4.2 shows the land-use-related CO 2 emission and sequestration rates of ","line":30,"x":65.86270141,"y":247.6598053,"width":"322.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"4.1.1 Other GHG and Aerosol Emissions","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":157.1598053,"width":"198.70","height":"12.00","fontName":["IXVCGN+SxrqdfCghnmcVxpnrxTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"This section examines the other main GHGs (methane and N 2 O) and gives examples ","line":36,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.65979766,"width":"333.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"Methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the second-largest contributor to anthropogenically ","line":39,"x":65.85851287,"y":91.65979766,"width":"322.41","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":133,"change":"Addition","str":"4 Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG","line":43,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"151.98","height":"8.50","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":134,"change":"Addition","str":"2 emission and sequestration rates","line":3,"x":393.22061157,"y":172.9611969,"width":"114.45","height":"8.50","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"the lower end of the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions is relatively narrow, and there is a ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"335.41","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"strong correlation between the fossil CO 2 and total CH 4 emissions in the scenarios in ","line":2,"x":53.85459136,"y":583.65979003,"width":"334.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"any given year (see top-left methane panel in Fig. 3.14 ). As with almost all literature-","line":3,"x":53.8633194,"y":573.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"reported scenarios, a lower plateau of methane emissions is associated with agricul -","line":4,"x":53.8633194,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"lower SSP scenarios, SSP1 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 (Fig.  4.3 ). The derived CH 4 pathways for ","line":7,"x":53.8633194,"y":523.65979003,"width":"334.07","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is one of the longer-lived GHGs, although the overall ","line":9,"x":65.85542297,"y":499.65979003,"width":"324.26","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"amounts in the atmosphere are much smaller than those of methane or CO 2 . The ","line":10,"x":53.85791015,"y":487.65979003,"width":"334.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"relatively high plateau of global emissions, around 5 MtN 2 O-N for N 2 O, are reflected ","line":11,"x":53.854599,"y":475.65979003,"width":"333.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"in the SSP1. 1.9 and SSP1 2.6 scenarios (dark green lines in Fig.  4.4 ) and in the ","line":12,"x":53.86019897,"y":465.15979003,"width":"334.21","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"and combined with the long lifetime of N 2 O, it means that the N 2 O concentrations ","line":15,"x":53.86019897,"y":427.65979003,"width":"334.47","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"fluorinated gases (such as tetrafluoromethane, CF 4 ) are only produced and emitted ","line":23,"x":53.86299896,"y":331.65979003,"width":"334.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"bromide, which is used for soil fumigation. SF 6 is one of the strongest GHGs on a ","line":26,"x":53.85960006,"y":295.65979003,"width":"334.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"per mass basis. It is controlled under the Kyoto Protocol and included in the nation -","line":27,"x":53.85340118,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"Our applied quantile regression method practically phases-out many of the haloge -","line":29,"x":53.85340118,"y":261.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"nated species over the course of the next 10–20 years, although some small back -","line":30,"x":53.85340118,"y":249.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"ground emissions remain. The full results for 40 halocarbons, HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6","line":31,"x":53.85340118,"y":235.6598053,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"are provided in a data appendix (Figs. 4.5 and 4.6 ).","line":32,"x":53.86188888,"y":225.1598053,"width":"203.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"Aerosols have an important temporary masking effect on GHG-induced warm -","line":33,"x":65.8618927,"y":213.1598053,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"system is sulfur dioxide or SO X . With higher fuel standards and concerns about local ","line":35,"x":53.86188888,"y":187.6598053,"width":"334.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"air pollution, future SO X emissions are projected to be substantially lower than cur -","line":36,"x":53.8611908,"y":175.6598053,"width":"332.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"rent levels. In fact, most emission inventories assume that SO X emissions peaked in ","line":37,"x":53.8607788,"y":163.6598053,"width":"334.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"SO X emissions are projected to decrease. Asia produces by far the most SO X emis -","line":39,"x":53.8589096,"y":139.6598053,"width":"332.44","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"Similarly, the projected emissions of NO X , which is largely a by-product of fossil ","line":44,"x":65.86109924,"y":79.65979766,"width":"322.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["KKYTIJ+RsrtgmLbwryvNqmycxTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":135,"change":"Addition","str":"fuel burning, are highest in Asia. 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","line":25,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":213.13771057,"width":"335.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":144,"change":"Addition","str":"The analysis considers the key technologies required for a successful energy transi -","line":26,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":201.13771057,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":144,"change":"Addition","str":"T. Pregger ( * ) · S. Simon · T. 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Due to population and GDP growth, increasing living stan -","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":231.79379272,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":151,"change":"Addition","str":"5.2.9 China","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":115.79380035,"width":"54.68","height":"12.00","fontName":["PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":152,"change":"Addition","str":"provides over two-thirds of China’s primary energy supply today (IEA WEO 2014 ). 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Table  5.2 shows that ","line":31,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766,"width":"334.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":152,"change":"Addition","str":"5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"143.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"needs of a growing population in the developing regions of the world in an environ -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":298.7538147,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.2 GDP Development","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":230.75379943,"width":"116.13","height":"12.00","fontName":["PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.2 Population growth projections (in millions)","line":25,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164,"width":"179.88","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Million capita 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050","line":26,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":573.91884048,"width":"183.93","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"OECD North America 482 503 524 543 560 575 588 599 24%","line":29,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":561.2708302199999,"width":"193.60","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"OECD Pacific 207 208 208 208 206 204 201 198 − 4%","line":30,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":549.4388600099999,"width":"167.42","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","HPSTEF+FsjjyxXpcsghCygtvnSTIXGeneral-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"OECD Europe 570 582 587 592 596 598 599 598 5%","line":31,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":537.6068287599999,"width":"163.14","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"343 346 347 346 345 343 341 339 − 1%","line":34,"x":144.6509318600004,"y":525.77485854,"width":"119.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","HPSTEF+FsjjyxXpcsghCygtvnSTIXGeneral-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Middle East 234 254 276 295 314 331 348 363 56%","line":35,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":503.9383412099999,"width":"158.90","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Latin America 506 531 552 571 587 599 609 616 22%","line":36,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":492.1063404799999,"width":"166.45","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"China 1405 1433 1447 1450 1442 1426 1403 1374 − 2%","line":37,"x":56.69293931000042,"y":480.2743397399999,"width":"173.46","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman","HPSTEF+FsjjyxXpcsghCygtvnSTIXGeneral-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Africa 1194 1353 1522 1704 1897 2100 2312 2528 112%","line":38,"x":56.69292786000042,"y":468.4423390099999,"width":"177.54","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"India 1309 1383 1452 1513 1565 1605 1636 1659 27%","line":39,"x":56.69292786000042,"y":456.6103382799999,"width":"169.05","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Non-OECD Asia 1132 1203 1269 1329 1382 1428 1467 1499 32%","line":40,"x":56.69292786000042,"y":444.77833754999995,"width":"209.42","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":153,"change":"Addition","str":"Global 7383 7795 8185 8551 8893 9210 9504 9772 32%","line":41,"x":56.69292786000042,"y":432.94633681999994,"width":"174.72","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"economic development in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016 (WEO 2016a , b ) ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"333.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"(Table 5.3 ). It is assumed that world GDP will grow on average by 3.2% per year ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"334.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"OECD’s share of global PPP- adjusted GDP will decrease from 45% in 2015 to 28% ","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003,"width":"333.82","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.3 GDP development projections based on average annual growth rates for 2015–2040 ","line":21,"x":53.85820007,"y":328.5031128,"width":"328.88","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"from IEA (WEO 2016a , b ) and on our own 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20,179 28,567 37,997 47,427 56,207 64,986 74,906 84,825 320%","line":45,"x":56.69287275999957,"y":142.52707013999992,"width":"227.14","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"Africa 5851 7118 9247 11,376 14,437 17,498 21,950 26,403 351%","line":46,"x":56.692880389999566,"y":130.69506939999997,"width":"209.41","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"India 8021 11,515 17,084 22,652 30,309 37,966 46,020 54,074 574%","line":47,"x":56.69290326999956,"y":118.86307629999995,"width":"217.92","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":154,"change":"Addition","str":"10,061 11,361 14,577 17,794 21,835 25,876 30,055 34,234 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parameterization of the models requires many assumptions about the develop -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"must define plausible and transparent assumptions based on background informa -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":531.79382324,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"technologies and their fossil and nuclear counterparts. For our scenarios, the projec -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":483.79382324,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"During the last decade, fossil fuel prices have seen huge fluctuations. Figure  5.1","line":17,"x":65.85829925,"y":387.79382324,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"shows oil prices since 1997. After extremely high oil prices in 2012, we are cur -","line":18,"x":53.85829162,"y":375.79382324,"width":"331.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"rently in a low-price phase. Gas prices saw similar development (IEA 2017 ). ","line":19,"x":53.85829162,"y":363.79382324,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"2013 , 2017 ) and have had a considerable influence on scenario results ever since.","line":21,"x":53.85829162,"y":339.79382324,"width":"324.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"Although in the past, oil-exporting countries provided the best oil price projec -","line":22,"x":65.85829162,"y":327.79382324,"width":"319.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"International Energy Agency (IEA) leading the way in 2018 (Roland Berger 2018 ). ","line":24,"x":53.85829162,"y":303.79382324,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040","line":38,"x":61.75958343999998,"y":98.95550091000001,"width":"131.03","height":"5.89","fontName":["ENJBOL+VtsxnfQmctmlNtjjmtArialMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"Price (USD 2013/b) Production (Mb/d)","line":39,"x":53.85908217999997,"y":266.97803051,"width":"97.89","height":"5.89","fontName":["ENJBOL+VtsxnfQmctmlNtjjmtArialMT"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.1 Historic development and projections of oil prices (bottom lines) and historical world oil ","line":58,"x":53.85828108999998,"y":79.15203226999998,"width":"327.90","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":155,"change":"Addition","str":"production and projections (top lines) by the IEA according to Wachtmeister et al. ( 2018 )","line":59,"x":53.85828108999998,"y":69.15603006999999,"width":"303.59","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"et  al. ( 2018 ) showed that price projections have varied significantly over time. ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"336.00","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"$140 per barrel, providing significant uncertainty regarding future costs in the sce -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"to comparatively expensive energy crops. Because bioenergy holds significant mar -","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"ket shares in all sectors in many regions, a detailed assessment of future price pro -","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"future installations and markets (McDonald and Schrattenholzer 2001 ; Rubin et al. ","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"334.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"2015 ). Therefore, the reliability of cost projections largely depends on the uncer -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"Fossil technologies provide a large cost data set featuring well-established mar -","line":26,"x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003,"width":"319.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"costs. Other technologies, such as PV and wind, are currently experiencing tremen -","line":31,"x":53.85829162,"y":237.15977478,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"Outlook series (compare for example IEA 2007 , 2014 , 2017 ). For PV and wind, ","line":36,"x":53.85829162,"y":177.15977478,"width":"333.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":156,"change":"Addition","str":"5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","line":45,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"143.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"same progressive cost developments for all scenarios. In the next sections, we pres -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"ent a detailed overview of our assumptions for power and renewable heat technolo -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"gies, including the investment and fuel costs, and the potential CO 2 costs in the ","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":523.65979003,"width":"335.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.3.1 Power and CHP Technologies","line":9,"x":53.86159133,"y":477.15979003,"width":"153.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"2012 , 2015 ), which were based on a variety of studies, including the European ","line":12,"x":53.86159133,"y":429.15979003,"width":"334.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"Commission-funded NEEDS project (NEEDS 2009 ), projections from the European ","line":13,"x":53.86159133,"y":417.15979003,"width":"333.44","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"Renewable Energy Council (Zervos et al. 2010 ), investment cost projections by the ","line":14,"x":53.86159133,"y":405.15979003,"width":"334.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"IEA ( 2014 ), and current cost assumptions by IRENA and IEA (IEA 2016b ). We ","line":15,"x":53.86159133,"y":393.15979003,"width":"334.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"found that investment costs generally converged, except for PV. Therefore, for con -","line":16,"x":53.86159133,"y":381.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"2016b ) up to 2040, including their regional disaggregation. We extended the projec -","line":19,"x":53.86159133,"y":345.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"scenario from IEA 2016b . For technologies not distinguished in the IEA report ","line":22,"x":53.86159133,"y":309.15979003,"width":"336.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"from the Energy [R]evolution Scenario 2015 (Teske et al. 2015 ). As the cost assump -","line":24,"x":53.86159133,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"assumptions on a more recent analysis by Steurer et al. ( 2018 ), which projects lower ","line":26,"x":53.86159133,"y":261.15979003,"width":"333.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"investment costs for PV in 2050 than does the IEA. The costs for onshore and off -","line":27,"x":53.86159133,"y":249.15977478,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"analysis in the PlanDelyKaD project (Michalski et al. 2017 ). Table  5.4 summarizes ","line":30,"x":53.86159133,"y":213.15977478,"width":"334.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"above for OECD Europe. It is important to note that the cost reductions are, in real -","line":32,"x":53.86159133,"y":189.15977478,"width":"331.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"dynamic market development is required to achieve a significant reduction in spe -","line":34,"x":53.86159133,"y":165.15977478,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":157,"change":"Addition","str":"are in the same range, but differ slightly for different renewable energy technolo -","line":39,"x":53.86159133,"y":105.1597824,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"In contrast, several renewable technologies have seen considerable cost reduc 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2500","line":20,"x":56.701651990001686,"y":341.02047745999994,"width":"138.60","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CHP Gas $/kW 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000","line":21,"x":56.701632920001686,"y":329.18847672000004,"width":"135.76","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CHP Lignite $/kW 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500","line":22,"x":56.70162147000169,"y":317.35647599000004,"width":"147.10","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CHP Oil $/kW 1310 1290 1240 1180 1130","line":23,"x":56.70161004000169,"y":305.52447526000003,"width":"133.41","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Coal power plant $/kW 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000","line":24,"x":56.70160240000169,"y":293.69250504,"width":"162.22","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Diesel generator $/kW 900 900 900 900 900","line":25,"x":56.701579510001686,"y":281.86050431,"width":"138.58","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Gas power plant $/kW 670 500 500 500 670","line":26,"x":56.70157188000169,"y":270.02850357,"width":"138.13","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Lignite power plant $/kW 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200","line":27,"x":56.701560440001685,"y":258.19650284,"width":"170.72","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Nuclear power plant $/kW 6600 6000 5100 4500 4500","line":28,"x":56.70155281000169,"y":246.36448685999997,"width":"173.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Oil power plant $/kW 950 930 890 860 820","line":29,"x":56.70152992000169,"y":234.53248612,"width":"135.78","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CHP Biomass $/kW 2550 2500 2450 2350 2250","line":30,"x":56.70152229000169,"y":222.70048537999998,"width":"151.83","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CHP Fuel cell $/kW 5000 5000 2500 2500 1120","line":31,"x":56.70151085000169,"y":210.86848465999998,"width":"152.06","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CHP Geothermal $/kW 13,200 11,190 8890 7460 6460","line":32,"x":56.70149940000169,"y":199.03649918,"width":"175.42","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Biomass power plant $/kW 2400 2350 2300 2200 2110","line":33,"x":56.70148034000169,"y":187.20449846,"width":"175.45","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Geothermal power plant $/kW 12,340 2800 2650 2500 2400","line":34,"x":56.70147270000169,"y":175.37249770999998,"width":"192.67","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Hydro power plant a $/kW 2650 2650 2650 2650 2650","line":35,"x":56.701461260001686,"y":163.49699417,"width":"170.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Ocean energy power plant $/kW 6950 6650 4400 3100 2110","line":36,"x":56.69674248000169,"y":151.66499344,"width":"192.98","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"PV power plant $/kW 1300 980 730 560 470","line":37,"x":56.69673104000169,"y":139.83299270999998,"width":"140.03","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"CSP power plant b $/kW 5700 5000 3700 3050 2740","line":38,"x":56.696711960001686,"y":127.99199691999999,"width":"163.84","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Wind turbine offshore $/kW 4000 3690 3190 2830 2610","line":39,"x":56.69674248000169,"y":116.16000381999999,"width":"178.87","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Wind turbine onshore $/kW 1640 1580 1510 1450 1400","line":40,"x":56.69673104000169,"y":104.32800307999999,"width":"177.68","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"Hydrogen production $/kW 1380 1220 920 700 570","line":41,"x":56.696711960001686,"y":92.49600235999999,"width":"164.08","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"a Costs for a system with solar multiple of two and thermal storage for 8 h of turbine operation","line":42,"x":53.85845131000169,"y":79.15200057999998,"width":"318.77","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"b Values apply to both run-of-the-river and reservoir hydro power","line":43,"x":53.85845131000169,"y":69.15200057999998,"width":"218.95","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":158,"change":"Addition","str":"5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","line":44,"x":53.85845131000169,"y":623.64953629,"width":"143.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"In the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios, hydrogen is introduced as a substitute for natu -","line":1,"x":65.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"319.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"et al. 2017 ), we assume that costs could decrease to $570/kW in the long term.","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"307.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.3.2 Heating Technologies","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003,"width":"118.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"sector. Costs for new installations differ significantly between regions and are inter -","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"331.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Our cost assumptions are based on a previous survey of renewable heating tech -","line":14,"x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"319.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.5 presents the investment cost assumptions for heating technologies for ","line":23,"x":65.85829925,"y":297.15979003,"width":"322.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.5 Specific investment cost assumptions (in $2015) for heating technologies in the ","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":232.38920593,"width":"330.21","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"2015 2020 2030 2040 2050","line":29,"x":269.1166495299997,"y":196.62468914999994,"width":"85.00","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Geothermal $/kW 2390 2270 2030 1800 1590","line":30,"x":56.68466556999973,"y":183.97669414999993,"width":"144.02","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Heat pumps $/kW 1790 1740 1640 1540 1450","line":31,"x":56.67617405999973,"y":172.14469342999993,"width":"144.73","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Biomass heat plants $/kW 600 580 550 510 480","line":32,"x":56.66768253999973,"y":160.31269268999995,"width":"150.64","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Residential biomass stoves Industrialized countries $/kW 840 810 760 720 680","line":33,"x":56.65919483999973,"y":148.48069195999994,"width":"254.02","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Residential biomass stoves Developing countries $/kW 110 110 110 110 110","line":34,"x":56.65919483999973,"y":136.64869122999994,"width":"246.60","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Solar collectors Industry $/kW 850 820 730 650 550","line":35,"x":56.659183399999726,"y":124.81669812999993,"width":"164.08","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"In heat grids $/kW 970 970 970 970 970","line":36,"x":155.44617832999973,"y":112.98469738999994,"width":"125.13","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":159,"change":"Addition","str":"Residential $/kW 1060 1010 910 800 680","line":37,"x":155.44617832999973,"y":101.15269665999993,"width":"129.39","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"heating purposes at investment costs ranging from €500/kW th (shallow) to €3000/","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"kW th (deep), with the costs strongly dependent on the drilling depth. The cost reduc -","line":2,"x":53.85789108,"y":583.65979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"For all sectors, we assume a cost reduction of 20% by 2050. In contrast, solar col -","line":17,"x":53.85609817,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"optimized already, whereas their integration in large systems is neither technologi -","line":20,"x":53.85609817,"y":369.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"cally nor economically mature. For larger applications, especially in heat grid sys -","line":21,"x":53.85609817,"y":357.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"market for such grid-connected solar systems, we assume there will be a cost reduc -","line":23,"x":53.85609817,"y":333.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.4 Fuel Cost Projections","line":25,"x":53.85829925,"y":277.15979003,"width":"131.35","height":"12.00","fontName":["PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.4.1 Fossil Fuels","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":253.1598053,"width":"76.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"2017 ). Beyond 2040, we extrapolated from the price developments between 2035 ","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":205.1598053,"width":"334.78","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"2015 ), corrected by the cumulative inflation rate for the Eurozone of 1.82% between ","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":157.1598053,"width":"333.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"2012 and 2015 (Table  5.6 ).","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":145.1598053,"width":"108.07","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":160,"change":"Addition","str":"5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"143.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.4.2 Biomass Prices","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":224.55830383,"width":"91.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"the regional supply and demand. The variability is large. Lamers et al. ( 2015 ) found ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":188.55830383,"width":"333.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"a price range of €4–4.8/GJ for forest residues in Europe in 2020, whereas agricul -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":176.55830383,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"curve on a global level for 2030 (see Fig.  5.2 ), ranging from $3/GJ for a potential of ","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":140.55830383,"width":"334.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"35 EJ/year. up to $8–10/GJ for a potential up to 90–100 EJ/year (IRENA 2014 ) (and ","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":128.55830383,"width":"333.76","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 5.6 Development projections for fossil fuel prices in $2015 (IEA 2017 )","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164,"width":"261.64","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"Reference scenario 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050","line":12,"x":56.69314123000031,"y":572.4098713800005,"width":"149.90","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"Oil All $/GJ 8.5 12.3 21.5 24.2 35.1","line":13,"x":56.68463064000031,"y":559.7619221700005,"width":"107.91","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":161,"change":"Addition","str":"Gas OECD North America $/GJ 2.5 3.3 5.5 6.2 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Liquid biofuels demand higher prices because ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":327.149292,"width":"334.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":162,"change":"Addition","str":"available for a considerable range of residues. Therefore, the average primary bio -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":255.149292,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":162,"change":"Addition","str":"The prices for primary biomass will increase proportionately to the IRENA ref -","line":19,"x":65.85829925,"y":135.149292,"width":"319.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":162,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 5.2 Global supply curve for primary biomass in 2030 (IRENA 2014 )","line":21,"x":53.83179855,"y":390.97918701,"width":"246.87","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":162,"change":"Addition","str":"5 Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways","line":22,"x":53.8572998,"y":623.6496582,"width":"143.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"100 EJ/year. However, the international trade in biomass may heavily influence bio -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":401.08670043,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"5.3.5 CO 2 Costs","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":331.2868042,"width":"73.94","height":"12.00","fontName":["PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"The WEO 2017 (IEA 2017 ) considers the future price of CO 2 in the power and ","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":303.586792,"width":"335.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"industry sectors. There is considerable variation between the current policy sce -","line":10,"x":53.85900878,"y":293.086792,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"in regional range. Various studies have indicated a close relationship between decar -","line":12,"x":53.85900878,"y":269.086792,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"bonisation and the implicit or explicit CO 2 price (regardless of the most efficient ","line":13,"x":53.85900878,"y":255.58680725,"width":"335.02","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"decarbonisation of the energy sector (Lucena et  al. 2016 ), but on the other hand, ","line":15,"x":53.86040115,"y":233.086792,"width":"335.06","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"decarbonisation may limit the costs of CO 2 emissions if an efficient pricing measure ","line":16,"x":53.86040115,"y":219.58680725,"width":"333.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":163,"change":"Addition","str":"is in place (Jacobson et al. 2017 ). 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( 2011 ), and Schueler et al. 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This is the case for the IEA estimates of demand devel -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"fuel- based heat and power generation.","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"152.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"5.4.1 Efficiency and Energy Intensities","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":481.15979003,"width":"189.01","height":"12.00","fontName":["PGTPMP+QfthrrMrxchmDsjkwcTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"It is obvious that a major increase in energy efficiency is the backbone of each ambi -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"331.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"• Population growth, which affects the number of people consuming energy or ","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003,"width":"326.96","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"factor, bearing in mind that this could mean power grid access or the implemen -","line":16,"x":65.85829925,"y":363.15979003,"width":"319.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"• Economic development, which is commonly measured as GDP. In general, GDP ","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":339.15979003,"width":"325.49","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"• Energy intensity, which is a measure of how much final energy is required in the ","line":22,"x":53.85829925,"y":291.15979003,"width":"325.54","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"to the per capita demand for final energy (for electrical appliances and heat gen -","line":26,"x":65.85829925,"y":243.15979003,"width":"319.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"The reference scenario and both target scenarios are based on the same projec -","line":30,"x":65.85829925,"y":189.15979003,"width":"319.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"future development of energy intensities differs between the reference and alterna -","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":153.15977478,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"the successful implementation of measures to intensify required investments in effi -","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":129.15977478,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":165,"change":"Addition","str":"the Current Policies scenario of the IEA WEO 2017 (IEA 2017 ). 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Accessed ","line":16,"x":65.86029815,"y":448.24731445,"width":"322.22","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":181,"change":"Addition","str":"doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.017","line":20,"x":65.86029815,"y":408.26330566,"width":"161.36","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":181,"change":"Addition","str":"Wachtmeister H, Henke P, Höök M (2018) Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accu -","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":398.26733398,"width":"331.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":181,"change":"Addition","str":"racy and current uncertainty. Applied Energy 220:138–153. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.","line":22,"x":65.86029815,"y":388.27133178,"width":"319.66","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":181,"change":"Addition","str":"Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 ","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":189.09080505,"width":"328.17","height":"8.50","fontName":["WOKFGB+HpngqgBwvknsFxxyjwTimesLTStd-Bold","LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":181,"change":"Addition","str":"International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ), which permits use, sharing, ","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":179.09480285,"width":"334.74","height":"8.50","fontName":["LNXWIX+HnpxfkNsnwjjDdfnwjTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"131 © The Author(s) 2019 ","line":0,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181,"width":"89.89","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske (ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , ","line":1,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961,"width":"210.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"Abstract Detailed background for all transport scenarios and development path -","line":6,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531,"width":"325.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"road-, rail- and aviation transport technologies. Explanations of all vehicle tech -","line":9,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":429.13769531,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"6.1 Introduction","line":15,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":331.14169311,"width":"80.12","height":"12.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"Global transport accounted for 23% of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in 2010 ","line":16,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":301.64169311,"width":"334.46","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"in 2010 according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Sims et  al. 2014 ). The ","line":18,"x":53.860388739999976,"y":279.14169311,"width":"335.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":182,"change":"Addition","str":"J. Pagenkopf ( * ) · B. van den Adel · Ö. Deniz · S. 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We structured our scenario ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":475.65979003,"width":"336.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"designs around the following key CO 2 -reducing measures 1 :","line":12,"x":53.86289978,"y":463.65979003,"width":"236.02","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"• Powertrain electrification;","line":13,"x":53.85601043,"y":447.15979003,"width":"107.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"• Enhancement of energy efficiency through technological development;","line":14,"x":53.85601043,"y":435.15979003,"width":"286.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"• Use of bio-based and synthetically produced fuels;","line":15,"x":53.85601043,"y":423.15979003,"width":"206.24","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"• Modal shifts (from high- to low-energy intensity modes) and overall reductions ","line":16,"x":53.85601043,"y":411.15979003,"width":"325.92","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"6.2 Global Transport Picture in 2015","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":343.15979003,"width":"184.21","height":"12.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"The world final energy demand in the transport sector totalled 94,812 PJ 2 in 2015, ","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":315.15979003,"width":"334.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"according to the IEA Energy Balances (IEA 2017a , b , c ). Based on this estimate, we ","line":21,"x":53.85860824,"y":303.15979003,"width":"334.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"used TRAEM (Sect. 3.3 to model the freight and passenger transport performance ","line":22,"x":53.85860824,"y":291.15979003,"width":"334.33","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"As can be seen from Fig.  6.1 , road passenger transport had the biggest transport ","line":26,"x":65.85861206,"y":243.15979003,"width":"322.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":183,"change":"Addition","str":"oriented, and has a 42% share of total tonne–km (tkm), as shown in Fig.  6.2 . 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{"page":185,"change":"Addition","str":"e c n a m r o f r e p t r o p s n a r t r e p t i l p s n i a r t r e w o P","line":27,"x":60.14339828,"y":446.3591919,"width":"128.32","height":"7.69","fontName":["MPJKGF+PcgjsjXlkskwWxssbcCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":185,"change":"Addition","str":"Internal Combustion Engine Electric","line":28,"x":168.80029296,"y":397.00109863,"width":"98.51","height":"6.91","fontName":["MPJKGF+PcgjsjXlkskwWxssbcCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":185,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 6.3 Powertrain split for all transport modes in 2015 by transport performance (pkm or tkm)","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":377.25048828,"width":"323.09","height":"8.50","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":185,"change":"Addition","str":"5% 5% 4%","line":37,"x":198.68196105,"y":320.60159301,"width":"28.55","height":"7.78","fontName":["MPJKGF+HycgnpLblkvcJmmtpgCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":185,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 6.4 Final energy use ","line":49,"x":53.85829925,"y":351.14160156,"width":"84.71","height":"8.50","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.1 Powertrain Electrification","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":529.15979003,"width":"151.94","height":"12.00","fontName":["JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"insignificant, but because road transport is by far the largest CO 2 emitter in overall ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":427.65979003,"width":"334.42","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"electrification, we cluster the world regions into three groups, according to the dif 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{"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"• Late adopters : Africa and the Middle East.","line":18,"x":53.86249923,"y":339.15979003,"width":"174.22","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario","line":22,"x":53.86249923,"y":261.15979003,"width":"112.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"The 5.0 °C Scenario follows the IEA Current Policies Scenario (IEA 2017a ) until ","line":23,"x":53.86249923,"y":237.15979003,"width":"334.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"transport modes (see Fig.  6.5 ), with passenger cars and buses making relevant gains 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For example, we project a share of 30% for battery ","line":26,"x":53.86249923,"y":201.15979003,"width":"334.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"electric vehicles (BEV) in China by 2050 due to foreseeable legislation and techno -","line":27,"x":53.86249923,"y":189.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"logical advancements in that country (Cui and Xiao 2018 ), whereas for the world ","line":28,"x":53.86249923,"y":177.15979003,"width":"334.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":186,"change":"Addition","str":"6 Transport Transition Concepts","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"109.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":187,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":331.82250976,"width":"112.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":187,"change":"Addition","str":"the innovator regions will experience strong electrification, encouraged by purchase ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":283.82250976,"width":"334.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":187,"change":"Addition","str":"incentives, EV credit systems, and tightened CO 2 fleet emission targets. 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The remaining regions will elec -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 6.8 plots the projected electrification of passenger and freight rail in terms ","line":29,"x":65.85829925,"y":261.15979003,"width":"322.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific China India Africa Powertrain split per transport performance","line":45,"x":57.44520187,"y":109.87082672,"width":"204.32","height":"5.03","fontName":["MPJKGF+GvjjsfFgdlscXjlcgjCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"203 0","line":46,"x":140.17469787,"y":188.61289978,"width":"11.87","height":"5.85","fontName":["LQUESH+MrxlwmPfqdskXmxwbrCalibri-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacifi cC hina Indi aA frica","line":47,"x":242.501297,"y":109.50263214,"width":"163.62","height":"5.03","fontName":["MPJKGF+GvjjsfFgdlscXjlcgjCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"Internal Combustion Engine Plug-In Hybrid Electric Hydrogen","line":49,"x":145.75770568,"y":98.35990142,"width":"117.52","height":"4.90","fontName":["MPJKGF+GvjjsfFgdlscXjlcgjCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 6.6 Powertrain split (fleet) of passenger cars in selected regions in 2030 ( left ) and 2050 ","line":50,"x":53.85829925,"y":79.15200042,"width":"329.27","height":"8.50","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"( right ) under the 2.0 °C Scenario","line":51,"x":53.85829925,"y":69.15599822,"width":"112.00","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":188,"change":"Addition","str":"6 Transport Transition Concepts","line":52,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"109.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"Aviation will probably remain predominantly powered by liquid fossil fuels (ker -","line":7,"x":65.85829925,"y":192.52270507,"width":"319.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"osene and bio- and synfuel derivatives) in the medium to long term because of limi -","line":8,"x":53.85829162,"y":180.52270507,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"because the flight distances are shorter than, for example, in the USA (Fig.  6.9 ). ","line":11,"x":53.85829162,"y":144.52270507,"width":"333.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"(Agence France-Presse 2018 ).","line":13,"x":53.85829162,"y":120.52269744,"width":"120.79","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"10 %","line":18,"x":68.69191741,"y":535.01568604,"width":"7.93","height":"4.62","fontName":["MPJKGF+NvtlfgVgkfkrFspmjbCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"20 %","line":19,"x":68.69191741,"y":541.71075441,"width":"7.93","height":"4.62","fontName":["MPJKGF+NvtlfgVgkfkrFspmjbCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"30 %","line":20,"x":68.69191741,"y":548.40588379,"width":"7.93","height":"4.62","fontName":["MPJKGF+NvtlfgVgkfkrFspmjbCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":189,"change":"Addition","str":"40 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We project a ","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":364.23361206,"width":"334.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.3.5 Rail Transport","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":304.23361206,"width":"90.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"2017 ). However, in terms of transport performance (pkm or tkm), the ratio of elec -","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":220.23361206,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"has been the state-of-the-art technology for decades and new lines are almost exclu -","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":184.23361206,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"with little or no electrification whatsoever could be feasible fully electric alterna -","line":28,"x":53.85829925,"y":100.2335968,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"Gasoline/Diesel NG/LP GE lectric Hydrogen","line":44,"x":76.71510314,"y":514.58642578,"width":"130.06","height":"5.09","fontName":["CAJCWZ+VqyvllXwdksyYtwngtCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"Gasoline/Diesel NG/LP GE lectri cH ydrogen","line":54,"x":237.65029907,"y":514.51611328,"width":"167.90","height":"5.09","fontName":["CAJCWZ+VqyvllXwdksyYtwngtCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 6.16 Average global energy intensities of two-wheel vehicles ( left ) and three-wheel vehicles ","line":57,"x":53.85829925,"y":495.06359863,"width":"328.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"( right ) by drivetrain technology in 2015 ( left bar ) and 2050 ( right bar )","line":58,"x":53.85829925,"y":485.06759643,"width":"239.77","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":196,"change":"Addition","str":"6 Transport Transition Concepts","line":59,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"109.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":197,"change":"Addition","str":"all drivetrains) in all three scenarios (Fig.  6.17 ).","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":281.61871337,"width":"190.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":197,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig.  6.18 for freight and passenger trains.","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":245.61871337,"width":"165.25","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":197,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.3.6 Water and Air Transport","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":209.61871337,"width":"134.97","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":197,"change":"Addition","str":"preparation (DNV GL 2015 ). We assumed the same increase in the share of bio- and ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":149.61871337,"width":"333.77","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":197,"change":"Addition","str":"enhanced air traffic management systems (Madavan 2016 ; Vyas et  al. 2013 ). 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Figure  6.19 shows the ","line":8,"x":53.86180114,"y":276.18930053,"width":"334.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":198,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.5 Operational Improvements and Novel Service Concepts","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":160.18919372,"width":"296.94","height":"12.00","fontName":["JNVSQL+StmlssKbmkdpCnvyhhTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":198,"change":"Addition","str":"5.0°C 1.5°C 2.0°C","line":20,"x":194.16360473,"y":419.43328857,"width":"59.65","height":"9.32","fontName":["MPJKGF+FkvrllMbkflwFmfyqdCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":198,"change":"Addition","str":"2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205 0","line":32,"x":184.95359802,"y":434.58929443,"width":"129.79","height":"8.00","fontName":["MPJKGF+FkvrllMbkflwFmfyqdCalibri"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":198,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 6.19 Shares of ","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.33428955,"width":"64.80","height":"8.50","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold","CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":198,"change":"Addition","str":"6 Transport Transition Concepts","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"109.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FvyyccFyngqxRssnycTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.5.1 Passenger Transport","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"115.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"They include traditional car sharing (e.g., Zipcar), free-floating car sharing busi -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"private ride-sharing mobility platforms, such as BlaBlaCar , are seen as alternative ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003,"width":"334.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman","VFZMCN+XcbsbvKnmvnqCcqtypTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"car is no longer considered a status symbol, but has become simply a mode of trans -","line":14,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"Schorndorf (Brost et  al. 2018 ). Under these business models, innovative vehicle ","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":345.15979003,"width":"335.44","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"usage. However, decision-makers and transport planners must consider the poten -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"(Pakusch et al. 2018 ). For example, an increase in total energy consumption may ","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":261.15979003,"width":"334.92","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"6.3.5.2 Freight Transport","line":31,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478,"width":"104.33","height":"10.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":199,"change":"Addition","str":"The automatization of road freight traffic can reduce fuel consumption. 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With communication between ","line":36,"x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824,"width":"335.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"up to 5% (Daimler 2018 ).","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"103.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"Further novel logistic concepts, such as the use of drones for delivery and decen -","line":10,"x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"319.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"6.4 Transport Performance","line":14,"x":53.85829925,"y":409.15979003,"width":"135.87","height":"12.00","fontName":["SDLUMT+NnrmnsRgkybwGqmvwqTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"To complement the anticipated technologically driven mode-inherent improve -","line":19,"x":65.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"319.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"ments in efficiency that we took as the input for our modelling in the previous sec -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"then discuss the rationales for the mode choices that will result in the transport per -","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":237.15979003,"width":"331.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"are particularly projected to grow strongly (Fig.  6.20 ). These modes consume more ","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478,"width":"334.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"energy than trains, ships, and buses, as discussed in Sect. 6.3.2 . Even if the full ","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":165.15977478,"width":"335.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["CSLHWZ+FdpslqMkstnlWqhkkrTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":200,"change":"Addition","str":"in the use of the other modes in all world regions (Fig.  6.21 ). 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The descriptions include a presenta -","line":17,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":309.13769531,"width":"331.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":224,"change":"Addition","str":"following sectors: industry, residential and other, and transport) and of supply strat -","line":19,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":285.13769531,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":224,"change":"Addition","str":"also discussed based on key indicators. Graphs, tables, and descriptions are pro -","line":22,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":249.13771057,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":224,"change":"Addition","str":"S. 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Figure  8.15 also shows the resulting cumulative CO 2 emissions from ","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":331.65979003,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":239,"change":"Addition","str":"Table  8.5 provides more-detailed data for the three bunker fuel scenarios.","line":26,"x":53.85919952,"y":297.15979003,"width":"288.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":239,"change":"Addition","str":"5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C 5.0°C 2.0°C 1.5°C","line":45,"x":112.92680197,"y":135.06350377999996,"width":"245.04","height":"6.50","fontName":["RZTODG+HrlhqvKyswpkFskvgwArialBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":239,"change":"Addition","str":"2015 2025 2030 2040 2050","line":46,"x":117.46439963,"y":124.93149999999997,"width":"72.24","height":"6.50","fontName":["RZTODG+HrlhqvKyswpkFskvgwArialBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} 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{"page":268,"change":"Addition","str":"'Transport' 'Industry'","line":52,"x":149.70440313,"y":416.32919189000006,"width":"59.00","height":"6.17","fontName":["RZTODG+TycjldSqjskqXmdmmgArialBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":268,"change":"Addition","str":"'Residential & other sectors' Savings","line":53,"x":149.70440313,"y":408.20318481000004,"width":"106.46","height":"6.17","fontName":["RZTODG+TycjldSqjskqXmdmmgArialBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":268,"change":"Addition","str":"5.0°C 2.0°C","line":54,"x":149.70440313,"y":400.07220336000006,"width":"30.99","height":"6.17","fontName":["RZTODG+TycjldSqjskqXmdmmgArialBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":268,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 8.24 OECD North America: development of CO 2 emissions by sector and cumulative CO 2 emissions (after 2015) in the scenarios (‘Savings’ = reduction compared with the 5.0 °C 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{"page":269,"change":"Addition","str":"8.5.2 Regional Results: Power Sector Analysis","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":205.77279663,"width":"223.83","height":"12.00","fontName":["HCVGTA+MdvwxmXkqcdlBfbvpwTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":269,"change":"Addition","str":"differences and particularities are summarized. It is important to note that the elec -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":153.77279663,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":269,"change":"Addition","str":"calculated (see Chap. 3 ) and are not real measured values. 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Therefore, the calculated scenarios assume the prior -","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003,"width":"331.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":270,"change":"Addition","str":"8.5.3.1 OECD North America: Development of Power Plant Capacities","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"297.18","height":"10.00","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":270,"change":"Addition","str":"about 5–7 years faster than the 2.0 °C Scenario (Table  8.18 ).","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478,"width":"241.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":270,"change":"Addition","str":"8.5.3.2 OECD North America: Utilization of Power-Generation ","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":141.15979003,"width":"267.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":270,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.19 shows the increasing shares of variable renewable power generation ","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":105.1597824,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":270,"change":"Addition","str":"8 Energy Scenario Results","line":36,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"89.04","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":271,"change":"Addition","str":"USA will have the highest share of variable renewables—mainly solar PV for resid -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":318.07330322,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":271,"change":"Addition","str":"ual homes and office buildings, connected to battery systems. 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9225","line":30,"x":183.5384080299994,"y":478.4468871800002,"width":"102.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":416,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 306 1269 2884 5706 7943","line":31,"x":183.55540632999939,"y":466.6148864500002,"width":"102.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":416,"change":"Addition","str":"Hydrogen 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0","line":32,"x":56.8628938199994,"y":454.7828857200002,"width":"77.06","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":416,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 0 0 7 1020 4118","line":33,"x":183.5893876499994,"y":442.9508849900002,"width":"68.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":416,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 0 0 7 1890 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In 2050, up to 1600 PJ/year of hydrogen will be used in the trans -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":307.41378784,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"electricity demand is 860 TWh in 2050. The 1.5 °C Scenario also assumes a hydro -","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":283.41378784,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Therefore, around 2030, synthetic fuels based on power-to-liquid will be intro -","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":247.41377258,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"8.13.1.8 China: Development of CO 2 Emissions","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":161.9138031,"width":"196.92","height":"10.00","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"In the 5.0 °C Scenario, China’s annual CO 2 emissions will increase by 25%, from ","line":17,"x":53.85710906,"y":137.9138031,"width":"334.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"almost zero by 2050. In the 5.0 °C case, the cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 ","line":21,"x":53.85789871,"y":89.9138031,"width":"334.45","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.88 China: installed capacities for renewable heat generation in the scenarios","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164,"width":"284.33","height":"8.50","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"in GW Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050","line":24,"x":56.69284799999944,"y":583.9188720500003,"width":"124.42","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Biomass 5.0 °C 1194 764 648 519 468","line":25,"x":56.67585732999944,"y":571.2708617900003,"width":"119.10","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 1194 1284 1214 921 578","line":26,"x":128.65386178999944,"y":559.4388915800002,"width":"98.32","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 1194 1267 1280 808 481","line":27,"x":128.63687875999943,"y":547.6068603300002,"width":"98.32","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Geothermal 5.0 °C 0 0 0 0 0","line":28,"x":56.62488534999944,"y":535.7748901100003,"width":"83.20","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 0 20 46 187 272","line":29,"x":128.60289742999942,"y":523.9428588600003,"width":"68.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 0 20 42 139 161","line":30,"x":128.5859143999994,"y":512.1108886500003,"width":"68.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Solar heating 5.0 °C 281 409 478 618 799","line":31,"x":56.573917189999435,"y":500.2788879200002,"width":"130.66","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 281 592 843 1546 1539","line":32,"x":128.5519330899994,"y":488.44688718000026,"width":"94.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 281 688 956 1252 1275","line":33,"x":128.53495004999945,"y":476.61488645000026,"width":"94.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Heat pumps 5.0 °C 52 76 89 126 174","line":34,"x":56.52294518999944,"y":464.78288572000025,"width":"113.66","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 52 151 251 449 565","line":35,"x":128.50096871999943,"y":452.95088499000025,"width":"81.32","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 52 136 213 349 446","line":36,"x":128.48397042999943,"y":441.11888425000024,"width":"81.32","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"Total a 5.0 °C 1527 1250 1214 1263 1441","line":37,"x":56.471977019999436,"y":429.24885862000025,"width":"126.35","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 1527 2048 2355 3103 2954","line":38,"x":128.67116525999944,"y":417.41685789000024,"width":"106.82","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 1527 2111 2491 2549 2361","line":39,"x":128.65418221999943,"y":405.58485715000023,"width":"106.82","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":417,"change":"Addition","str":"a Excluding direct electric heating","line":40,"x":53.85824563999944,"y":392.24385374000025,"width":"112.98","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"Therefore, the cumulative CO 2 emissions will decrease by 56% in the 2.0  °C ","line":3,"x":65.85829925,"y":219.37719726,"width":"323.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"Scenario the reduction will be greatest in the ‘Residential and other’ sector, fol -","line":6,"x":53.86100006,"y":184.87719726,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"lowed by ‘Power generation’ and ‘Transport’ sectors (Fig.  8.96 ).","line":7,"x":53.86100006,"y":172.87719726,"width":"258.26","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"8.13.1.9 China: Primary Energy Consumption","line":8,"x":53.86100006,"y":136.87719726,"width":"194.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"The levels of primary energy consumption in the three scenarios when the assump -","line":9,"x":53.86100006,"y":112.87719726,"width":"331.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"tions discussed above are taken into account are shown in Fig.  8.97 . In the 2.0 °C ","line":10,"x":53.86100006,"y":100.87719726,"width":"334.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"technologie s","line":14,"x":263.89736938,"y":501.7243042,"width":"40.70","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"heat us e","line":17,"x":240.7742157,"y":464.04388427,"width":"27.29","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"24 %","line":21,"x":154.94839477,"y":458.06842041,"width":"13.63","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"pump s","line":23,"x":208.06419372,"y":588.94519042,"width":"21.72","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"51 %","line":24,"x":211.58432006,"y":580.43493652,"width":"13.63","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"total 640 billion $","line":26,"x":179.43330383,"y":521.93591308,"width":"56.23","height":"8.00","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"technologie s","line":28,"x":147.30426025,"y":413.33477783,"width":"40.70","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"heat us e","line":31,"x":185.20715332,"y":365.47540283,"width":"27.29","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"34 %","line":35,"x":165.26930236,"y":299.73208618,"width":"13.63","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"total 2,800 billion $","line":40,"x":96.33779907,"y":357.05010986,"width":"61.62","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"technologie s","line":42,"x":326.60134887,"y":411.05767822,"width":"40.70","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"heat us e","line":45,"x":353.38330078,"y":373.49710083,"width":"27.29","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"40 %","line":49,"x":342.13955688,"y":302.95162963,"width":"13.63","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"pump s","line":51,"x":245.80899047,"y":407.58587646,"width":"21.72","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"39 %","line":52,"x":249.37678527,"y":399.07559204,"width":"13.63","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"total 2,400 billion $","line":54,"x":273.09329223,"y":356.10211181,"width":"61.62","height":"7.95","fontName":["MCEFLQ+QqlbjbYwygbhXnwslwCalibri-Light"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 8.94 China: development of investments for renewable heat-generation technologies in the ","line":55,"x":53.85829925,"y":279.70721435,"width":"328.58","height":"8.50","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":418,"change":"Addition","str":"8 Energy Scenario Results","line":57,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"89.04","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"will be even lower (80,700 PJ in 2050) because the final energy demand and conver -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":132.82200622,"width":"331.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"primary energy share of more than 91% in 2050 (including non-energy consump -","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":72.8219986,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 8.89 China: projection of transport energy demand by mode in the scenarios","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164,"width":"278.59","height":"8.50","fontName":["HCVGTA+HrrpsrRfvtprJnvfvdTimesLTStd-Bold","WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"in PJ/year Case 2015 2025 2030 2040 2050","line":10,"x":56.693008330000104,"y":583.9188720500003,"width":"135.29","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"Rail 5.0 °C 539 567 593 644 672","line":11,"x":56.6930159600001,"y":571.2708617900003,"width":"99.74","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 539 589 637 687 762","line":12,"x":145.74751272000012,"y":559.4388915800002,"width":"85.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C 539 580 597 622 662","line":13,"x":145.74751272000012,"y":547.6068603300002,"width":"85.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"Road 5.0 °C 10,421 15,629 17,651 19,664 22,073","line":14,"x":56.6930159600001,"y":535.7748901100003,"width":"156.64","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":419,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C 10,421 11,509 9395 7143 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","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":179.10032653,"width":"334.74","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+GdxfghFpvhyyRwyvdbTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":450,"change":"Addition","str":"8 Energy Scenario Results","line":39,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"89.04","height":"8.50","fontName":["WBIXVW+VnpdxqLcsvrlHvbnvyTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"403 © The Author(s) 2019 ","line":0,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181,"width":"89.89","height":"8.50","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske (ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , ","line":1,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961,"width":"210.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","DMDTRI+KqkkstLysphsCrbjhkTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"Abstract This section provides historical production data for coal, oil and gas ","line":7,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531,"width":"330.01","height":"10.00","fontName":["YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold","LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"between 1980 and 2015. The 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C scenario lead to specific phase-out ","line":8,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531,"width":"334.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"security of supply and price security towards an open debate about an orderly with -","line":13,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":393.13769531,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"9.1 Fossil Energy Resources—The Sky Is the Limit","line":24,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":205.14169311,"width":"256.19","height":"12.00","fontName":["YCQPZS+ChmcpvXdssdrTttfrxTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske ( * ) ","line":30,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":100.82099914,"width":"46.84","height":"8.50","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman","RPZZFG+SjsmmqMmlxyxBqdptjWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":451,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au","line":32,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":80.82900238,"width":"103.46","height":"8.50","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":452,"change":"Addition","str":"(GEA 2012 ), an integrated assessment of the global energy system, has published a ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":485.76379394,"width":"334.13","height":"10.00","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":452,"change":"Addition","str":"Table  9.1 shows the estimates for conventional and unconventional coal, oil, and gas ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":461.76379394,"width":"334.14","height":"10.00","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":452,"change":"Addition","str":"shortage of conventional oil and gas, but unconventional resources are still signifi -","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":401.76379394,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["LYEPZS+PnjsjyLhrblyLybwyqTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":452,"change":"Addition","str":"cantly larger than our climate can cope with. 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","line":18,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":283.14169311,"width":"334.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":460,"change":"Addition","str":"2017 ; Jenkins et al. 2016 ; Sovacool and Dworkin 2014 ). This includes, for example, ","line":21,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":247.14169311,"width":"333.79","height":"10.00","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":460,"change":"Addition","str":"E. Dominish ( * ) · C. Briggs · S. Teske · F. 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","line":3,"x":65.86029815,"y":559.79779052,"width":"320.44","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"Standard Classification of Occupations, http://www.abs.gov.au/ANZSCO , Accessed September ","line":6,"x":65.86029815,"y":529.80981445,"width":"320.70","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"energy manufacturing. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/65619.pdf","line":9,"x":65.86029815,"y":499.82180786,"width":"280.13","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"International Labour Office. (2015). Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sus -","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":439.8458252,"width":"331.68","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"tainable economies and societies for all . Geneva","line":16,"x":65.86029815,"y":429.849823,"width":"165.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic","PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"IRENA (2017a) Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Onshore Wind, ","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":419.8538208,"width":"335.83","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"IRENA, Abu Dhabi ;","line":18,"x":65.86029815,"y":409.8578186,"width":"67.21","height":"8.50","fontName":["FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic","PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"IRENA (2017b) Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Solar PV, IRENA, ","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":399.8618164,"width":"334.71","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"IRENA (2018) Renewable Energy Benefits: Leveraging Local Capacity for Offshore Wind, IRENA, ","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":379.86981201,"width":"333.42","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"Jenkins, K., McCauley, D., Heffron, R., Stephan, H., & Rehner, R. (2016). Energy justice: A con -","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":359.87780761,"width":"331.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"ceptual review . Energy Research and Social Science , 11 , 174–182 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.","line":24,"x":65.86029815,"y":349.88180541,"width":"311.09","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"Rutovitz, J., Dominish, E., & Downes, J.  (2015). Calculating global energy sector jobs: 2015 ","line":26,"x":53.8583107,"y":329.88983154,"width":"334.86","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"methodology . Prepared for Greenpeace International by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, ","line":27,"x":65.86029815,"y":319.89382934,"width":"322.32","height":"8.50","fontName":["FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic","PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"Smith, S. (2017) . Just Transition – A Report for the OECD. Brussels. Retrieved from https://www.","line":29,"x":53.8583107,"y":299.90182495,"width":"331.67","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"Sovacool, B.  K., & Dworkin, M.  H. (2014) . 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Just transition of the workforce, and the creation of decent work and quality ","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":239.92582702,"width":"331.66","height":"8.50","fontName":["PGGTUK+MjlrwvGpnncyLwpvhkTimesLTStd-Roman","YEUVQS+SdnkylMywmbtPfwdngTimesLTStd-Bold","FRGLKE+BrtyqpXsrcbgPhgchsTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":482,"change":"Addition","str":"jobs: Technical paper by the Secretariat . 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Teske (ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , ","line":1,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961,"width":"210.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","UFXNUK+JqbvhdDghtcqDfypbkTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"Abstract This chapter explores the magnitude of the changes in patterns of material ","line":8,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531,"width":"327.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"rates and material efficiency can significantly reduce primary demand for metals .","line":16,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":357.13769531,"width":"321.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"11.1 Introduction","line":17,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":313.14169311,"width":"86.12","height":"12.00","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"Globally, recent investments in new renewable energy infrastructure have been dou -","line":18,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":285.14169311,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"2018 ). This is strong evidence of the increasing momentum of the energy transition ","line":20,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":261.14169311,"width":"334.03","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"away from fossil fuels. A rapid transition to 100% renewables offers hope for reduc -","line":21,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":249.14169311,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"ing carbon emissions and increasing the chance that global warming will be main -","line":22,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":237.14169311,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"requirements for new patterns of material use to support the renewable energy infra -","line":24,"x":53.85819910999998,"y":213.14169311,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"D. Giurco ( * ) · E. Dominish · N. Florin","line":30,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":125.26540374,"width":"137.16","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","NXLXAY+CrsbwbYpysxwBwsxnnWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":483,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: damien.giurco@uts.edu.au ; elsa.dominish@uts.edu.au ; nick.florin@uts.edu.au","line":32,"x":53.85859964999998,"y":105.27339935,"width":"293.11","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"energy technologies is already established (Ali et  al. 2017 ; Valero et  al. 2018 ). A ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"333.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"the supply of the materials needed for renewable energy. The first aspect is the avail -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"ability of mineral supplies. For example, Mohr et al. ( 2012 ) developed commodity-","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"a specific geographic location, such as Germany (Viebahn et al. 2015 ) or globally ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"334.59","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"(Valero et al. 2018 ; Watari et al. 2018 ), and some have explored the role of technol -","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003,"width":"331.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"ogy mixes and material substitution in detail (Månberger and Stenqvist 2018 ).","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"312.15","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"have also been explored (Giurco et  al. 2014 ; Florin and Dominish 2017 ) and the ","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003,"width":"335.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"need for improved resource governance has been highlighted (Prior et al. 2013 ; Ali ","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003,"width":"333.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"et al. 2017 ). This chapter evaluates the total demand to determine which metals may ","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"material efficiency, and recycling rates. This chapter draws on the results of a larger ","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003,"width":"334.19","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"key assumptions, and the energy and resource scenarios are described in Sect. 11.3 , ","line":25,"x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003,"width":"334.20","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"3 . The requirements for selected materials (lithium, cobalt, and silver) are presented ","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003,"width":"333.81","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"in Sect. 11.4 . Following the results, a discussion is presented in Sect. 11.5 .","line":28,"x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003,"width":"297.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"11.2 Overview of Metal Requirements for each Technology","line":29,"x":53.85820007,"y":235.1598053,"width":"296.06","height":"12.00","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"technologies, which add to the complexity of material considerations. The key met -","line":32,"x":53.85820007,"y":183.1598053,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"11.2.1 Solar PV","line":34,"x":53.85820007,"y":133.1598053,"width":"75.01","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"A typical crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV panel, which is currently the dominant tech -","line":35,"x":53.85820007,"y":105.15979766,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":484,"change":"Addition","str":"nology, with over 95% of the global market, contains about 76% glass (panel sur -","line":36,"x":53.85820007,"y":93.15979766,"width":"331.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":485,"change":"Addition","str":"metals (e.g., copper) (Weckend et al. 2016 ). Figure  11.1 provides a simplified dia -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":251.3678894,"width":"331.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":485,"change":"Addition","str":"11.2.2 Wind","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":195.36790466,"width":"56.23","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":485,"change":"Addition","str":"direct-drive magnetics, which contain the rare earth metals neodymium and dyspro -","line":14,"x":53.85829925,"y":119.36789703,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":485,"change":"Addition","str":"sium ( Fig. 11.2 ). The development of direct-drive permanent magnet generators ","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":107.36789703,"width":"332.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman","SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":485,"change":"Addition","str":"because it reduces maintenance (Zimmermann et al. 2013 ). 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Since commercialization in the 1990s, a range of different types (‘chemis -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":202.27139282,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":486,"change":"Addition","str":"in the cathode. The most common LIB types for EV applications are nickel–manga -","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":178.27139282,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":486,"change":"Addition","str":"(NCA), and lithium–manganese oxide (LMO) (Vaalma et  al. 2018 ). 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Rare earth ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":288.95819091,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":487,"change":"Addition","str":"future because of their higher performance characteristics (Widmer et al. 2015 ).","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":228.95819091,"width":"318.94","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":487,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3 Scenarios and Key Assumptions","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":184.95820617,"width":"184.39","height":"12.00","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":487,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3.1 Electricity and Transport Scenarios","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":158.95420837,"width":"205.91","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":487,"change":"Addition","str":"current policies, and therefore the global development of renewable power and elec -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":82.95819854,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":487,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 11.3 Overview of key metal requirements and supply chain for LIB and EV","line":15,"x":53.85830498,"y":313.7880802,"width":"270.33","height":"8.50","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":487,"change":"Addition","str":"11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","line":16,"x":53.85830498,"y":623.65557288,"width":"250.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":488,"change":"Addition","str":"batteries will account for approximately 6% of energy storage (which will be domi -","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":488,"change":"Addition","str":"commercial vehicles. Lead–acid batteries are also the main type of battery for elec -","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":488,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3.2 Resource Scenario Development","line":29,"x":53.85829925,"y":229.1598053,"width":"190.47","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":488,"change":"Addition","str":"renewables, as shown in Table  11.1 . The scenarios were developed based on the ","line":31,"x":53.85829925,"y":189.1598053,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":488,"change":"Addition","str":"current market trends and the likelihood of changes in material efficiency or tech -","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.1598053,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":488,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3.3 Technology Assumptions","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":109.15979766,"width":"152.69","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3.4 Batteries","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":239.76379394,"width":"74.00","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"The ‘current materials intensity’ for LIB for EVs and storage (Table 11.2 ) is esti -","line":14,"x":53.85829925,"y":211.76379394,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"LMO (20%), NCA (15%), and LFP (5%) (Vaalma et al. 2018 ). The dominant bat -","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":187.76379394,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"today. Therefore, for the ‘future technology scenario’, we assume that lithium–sul -","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":163.76379394,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"fur batteries will replace LIB for EVs (Cano et al. 2018 ). We have modelled a future ","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":151.76379394,"width":"333.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"market (Table 11.3 ) in which Li–S will achieve a 50% market share for EVs by ","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":139.76379394,"width":"335.29","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"2050, with deployment scaling up at a linear rate, assuming the first commercializa -","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.76378631,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"rate of 90% for Co and Ni (Georgi-Maschler et al. 2012 ). A 10% recovery rate is ","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":91.76378631,"width":"334.75","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 11.1 Summary of metal scenarios","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.1743164,"width":"134.03","height":"8.50","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"Scenario name Market share/ materials efficiency Recycling","line":28,"x":56.69293208999968,"y":573.9188309,"width":"200.09","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"Total demand Current materials intensity and ","line":31,"x":56.68444057999968,"y":561.2708206399999,"width":"153.48","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"No recycling Red","line":33,"x":279.70742793999966,"y":561.2708206399999,"width":"57.71","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"Current recycling Current materials intensity and ","line":34,"x":56.67594904999968,"y":539.4343338299999,"width":"166.78","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"Potential recycling Current materials intensity and ","line":39,"x":56.66746134999968,"y":517.5978470099999,"width":"171.04","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"Future technology Improved materials efficiency for ","line":44,"x":56.65896983999968,"y":495.76132967999996,"width":"177.63","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"No recycling Dark blue","line":47,"x":279.6819762799997,"y":495.76981355999993,"width":"77.77","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":489,"change":"Addition","str":"11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","line":56,"x":53.81148142999968,"y":623.6693191799999,"width":"250.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"route (King et  al. 2018 ). For scenarios that assume a ‘potential future recycling’ ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":402.23181152,"width":"335.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"100% recovery has been reported in the laboratory (Gratz et al. 2014 ). 1 However, ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":378.23181152,"width":"334.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"some losses during processing seem unavoidable. 2","line":4,"x":53.85840988,"y":366.23181152,"width":"200.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3.5 Solar PV","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":322.23181152,"width":"75.01","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"A high and a low value are given for silver to show the impact of material effi -","line":10,"x":65.85829925,"y":246.23181152,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"PV industry (ITRPV 2018 ), and the future material efficiency is based on an assumed ","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":222.23181152,"width":"333.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"minimum amount of silver (Kavlak et  al. 2015 ). The ‘current recycling rate’ sce -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":210.23181152,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"target of the EU WEEE Directive. 3 This should be considered an average rate, not -","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":186.23179626,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"transport than large utility-scale PV. We assume that no recycling is currently occur -","line":17,"x":53.85340118,"y":162.23179626,"width":"331.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"1 See: https://americanmanganeseinc.com/investor-info-3/investment-proposition/","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":111.13780212,"width":"273.73","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"2 Pers comms Boxall, N.","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":99.13780212,"width":"81.17","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"3 More details available here: http://ec. europa.eu/environment/waste/weee/index_en.htm","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":87.13780212,"width":"299.53","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 11.2 Material intensity and recycling rates","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":598.17480468,"width":"163.40","height":"8.50","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Solar PV Batteries","line":22,"x":232.4203147399998,"y":583.9188404299998,"width":"61.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Materials Silver Lithium Cobalt","line":23,"x":56.691322279999795,"y":572.4098072199997,"width":"102.35","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Current materials intensity 20 t/GW 113 t/GWh 124 t/GWh","line":24,"x":56.69131082999979,"y":559.7618580099997,"width":"196.20","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Future technology 4 t/GW 411 t/GWh","line":25,"x":56.69131082999979,"y":547.9298267599997,"width":"125.37","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Current recycling rate [%] 0% 0% 90%","line":26,"x":56.69131082999979,"y":536.0978565399997,"width":"127.57","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Potential recycling rate [%] 81% 95% 95%","line":27,"x":56.691303199999794,"y":524.2658252899997,"width":"140.33","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Table 11.3 Market share","line":28,"x":53.852302499999794,"y":490.6483326099998,"width":"81.52","height":"8.50","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Solar PV Batteries","line":29,"x":134.07690424999976,"y":476.3873167299998,"width":"61.15","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Technology c-Si Li-ion Li-S","line":30,"x":56.692901559999775,"y":464.8783140499998,"width":"90.07","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Current market share 95.8% 100%","line":31,"x":56.68441004999978,"y":452.23030378999977,"width":"113.46","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":490,"change":"Addition","str":"Future market share Decreases to 50% by ","line":32,"x":56.68441004999978,"y":440.39830305999976,"width":"141.54","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":491,"change":"Addition","str":"11.3.6 Metal Assumptions","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":430.59329223,"width":"124.58","height":"12.00","fontName":["MTWRMA+FkhgsmWmjdnxKndgxtTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":491,"change":"Addition","str":"For each scenario, the annual primary demand is compared with the current produc -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":402.59329223,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":491,"change":"Addition","str":"reserves. The data presented (Table 11.4 ) highlight the annual production, total ","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":378.59329223,"width":"335.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":491,"change":"Addition","str":"factors and can change over time. 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In the USA, the Dodd-Frank Act has mandated the traceabil -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"This has arisen from the international concern over the social impacts and implica -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"environmental policy (Ali et al. 2017 ). The transition to renewable energy and the ","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"334.55","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"11.7 Concluding Remarks","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":421.15979003,"width":"130.01","height":"12.00","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"demand requirements for these metals emphasize the importance of recycling, alter -","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"331.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"resource cycles; and it is important to adopt a systems view that considers the avail -","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"able supply and also social and environmental factors. To support sustainable devel -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018., Electric Buses in Cities. Available at: http://www.ouren-","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.17581176,"width":"331.62","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":501,"change":"Addition","str":"11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","line":38,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.68634033,"width":"250.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"energy manufacturing. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/65619.pdf","line":2,"x":65.86029815,"y":588.19134521,"width":"280.13","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"Energy Insights by McKinsey, 2018. Metal mining constraints on the electric mobil -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":578.1953125,"width":"331.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"ity horizon. Available at: https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/","line":4,"x":65.86029815,"y":568.19934082,"width":"319.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"Roadmap for Photovoltaic Results 2017, Ninth Edition. Available at: http://www.itrpv.net/","line":18,"x":65.86029815,"y":428.25531005,"width":"319.66","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"Jamasmie, C. (2018) Guatemala delays ruling on Tahoe’s Escobal mine reopen -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":408.26330566,"width":"331.68","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"ing. Mining.com Accessed 26 September 2018, http://www.mining.com/","line":21,"x":65.86029815,"y":398.26733398,"width":"319.64","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"Tchetvertakov, G. (2018). “Panasonic and Tesla seek to remove cobalt from elec -","line":39,"x":53.85829925,"y":218.33932495,"width":"331.67","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"tric car batteries.” Retrieved 15 September 2018, from https://smallcaps.com.au/","line":40,"x":65.86029815,"y":208.34332275,"width":"319.63","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"panasonic-tesla-remove-cobalt-electric-car-battery/ .","line":41,"x":65.86029815,"y":198.34732055,"width":"175.88","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"The Silver Institute and Thomson Reuters, 2018. World Silver Survey 2018. Available at: https://","line":42,"x":53.85829925,"y":188.35131835,"width":"331.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":502,"change":"Addition","str":"Valero, A., A. Valero, G. Calvo and A. Ortego (2018). “Material bottlenecks in the future develop -","line":49,"x":53.85829925,"y":118.37931823,"width":"331.65","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":503,"change":"Addition","str":"Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 ","line":14,"x":53.85971832,"y":189.03982543,"width":"328.17","height":"8.50","fontName":["SCYBSO+VrwybmLnjnkyKbcngcTimesLTStd-Bold","CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":503,"change":"Addition","str":"International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ), which permits use, sharing, ","line":15,"x":53.85971832,"y":179.04382324,"width":"334.74","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":503,"change":"Addition","str":"11 Requirements for Minerals and Metals for 100% Renewable Scenarios","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"250.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["CWYJCU+MwbqrqRrbdpnKlvqykTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"459 © The Author(s) 2019 ","line":0,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181,"width":"89.89","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske (ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , ","line":1,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961,"width":"210.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","UFCXMJ+VdqjgxSyshydScxwltTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"Abstract This section provides a summary of the implications of the developed ","line":7,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":465.13769531,"width":"329.35","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for global mean climate change. Specifically, we con -","line":8,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":453.13769531,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"sider atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, radiative forcing, global-mean surface air ","line":9,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":439.64169311,"width":"335.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"change if the world were to follow the energy-related CO 2 emissions developed here, ","line":12,"x":53.86149881999998,"y":379.64169311,"width":"333.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"complemented by land-use CO 2 emissions and those of other greenhouses gases ","line":13,"x":53.86109064999998,"y":367.64169311,"width":"335.75","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"(GHGs). According to the high- emission scenario with unabated fossil fuel use, the ","line":14,"x":53.85710047999998,"y":357.14169311,"width":"334.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"world could experience 1400 ppm CO 2 concentrations by the end of 2100, which is ","line":15,"x":53.85710047999998,"y":343.64169311,"width":"334.38","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"ice-core records have shown that over the last 850,000 years, the CO 2 concentrations ","line":17,"x":53.85779856999998,"y":319.64169311,"width":"333.95","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"last 10  million years on this planet, the CO 2 concentrations have probably not ","line":19,"x":53.85769937999998,"y":295.64169311,"width":"336.30","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"exceeded the CO 2 concentrations that our thirst for fossil fuels would propel the ","line":20,"x":53.854197489999976,"y":283.64169311,"width":"335.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 concentrations are disregarded, the consequences will be dramatic. At atmo -","line":24,"x":53.86159799999998,"y":235.64169311,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"spheric CO 2 concentrations above 900 ppm, the acidity level in the oceans will drop ","line":25,"x":53.85800073999998,"y":223.64169311,"width":"333.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"et al. 2013 ). Therefore, without even considering ocean warming and the associated ","line":28,"x":53.858099939999974,"y":189.14169311,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"M. Meinshausen ( * ) ","line":30,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":110.82099914,"width":"75.06","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman","UFCXMJ+SngdhnHsscwpFhlvpgWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":504,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au","line":33,"x":53.85839746999998,"y":80.83300018,"width":"151.03","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"12.1 Background on the Investigated Scenarios","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324,"width":"236.20","height":"12.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"to CO 2 , involving other GHGs and ultimately, temperature, precipitation changes, ","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":554.29382324,"width":"334.78","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"use for energy, combined with CCS, to draw down atmospheric CO 2 levels. This is ","line":13,"x":53.85990142,"y":434.29379272,"width":"334.23","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"the key difference from the scenarios developed in the present study. Whereas we ","line":14,"x":53.8615799,"y":423.79379272,"width":"334.01","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"use a substantial amount of negative CO 2 emissions in the reforestation and forest ","line":15,"x":53.8615799,"y":410.29379272,"width":"334.60","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"If we do not rely on some negative CO 2 emission options, in particular biomass ","line":19,"x":65.8602066,"y":362.29379272,"width":"322.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"by other means (e.g., reforestation); or (2) whether CO 2 emissions can be reduced ","line":21,"x":53.86230087,"y":338.29379272,"width":"334.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"in the first place so that we do not need to rely on negative emissions options; or (3) ","line":22,"x":53.85401153,"y":327.79379272,"width":"334.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"whether other non-CO 2 gases can be reduced even further to make negative CO 2","line":23,"x":53.85401153,"y":314.29379272,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"as outlined in the previous chapters. Not only will energy-related CO 2 emissions be ","line":25,"x":53.86180114,"y":290.29379272,"width":"334.01","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"radically reduced, CO 2 uptake via reforestation and forest restoration will also play ","line":26,"x":53.8545189,"y":278.29379272,"width":"334.10","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"an important role. This study takes a more conservative approach to non-CO 2 gases ","line":27,"x":53.85559082,"y":266.29379272,"width":"334.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"by being consistent with other stringent mitigation scenarios. Thereby, we ensure","line":28,"x":53.86071014,"y":255.79379272,"width":"331.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"that the feasibility constraints implicitly or explicitly set by other modelling frame -","line":29,"x":53.86071014,"y":243.79379272,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"12.2 Comparison of Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations ","line":31,"x":53.85820007,"y":185.99380493,"width":"275.58","height":"12.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 concentration beyond that present on the Earth for the last 10 million years. ","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":120.29380035,"width":"334.98","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":505,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 and are continuing to add 2–3 ppm a year. If we consider the most stringent ","line":37,"x":53.8580017,"y":96.29380035,"width":"334.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 12.1 shows the global CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O concentrations under the key ","line":1,"x":65.85829925,"y":595.65979003,"width":"322.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"1.5 °C scenario is clearly lower in terms of its CO 2 concentrations than the lowest ","line":3,"x":53.8610115,"y":571.65979003,"width":"334.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"Only towards the end of the twenty-first century do the strongly negative CO 2 emis -","line":5,"x":53.85818862,"y":547.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"sions in the SSP1_19 scenario bring the CO 2 concentration closer towards our ","line":6,"x":53.86159896,"y":535.65979003,"width":"336.05","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"Aggregating all the greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions by their radiative forc -","line":8,"x":65.85549926,"y":513.15979003,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"CO 2 yields the so-called ‘CO 2 equivalence concentrations’. In Fig.  12.2 , the CO 2","line":10,"x":53.85549926,"y":487.65979003,"width":"330.71","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"medium-high reference case. The radiative forcing and CO 2 equivalence concentra -","line":14,"x":53.86180114,"y":439.65979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"SSP1_19 scenario, at least initially until the middle of the second half of this cen -","line":16,"x":53.85359954,"y":417.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"tury. Thereafter, the net negative CO 2 emissions implied by the SSP1_19 scenario ","line":17,"x":53.85359954,"y":403.65979003,"width":"334.72","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 12.2 shows CO 2 equivalence concentrations (upper panel) and radiative ","line":22,"x":65.86139678,"y":343.65979003,"width":"322.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"12.3 Comparison of Cumulative CO 2 Emissions","line":28,"x":53.85820007,"y":239.35980224,"width":"239.04","height":"12.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"Since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, cumulative CO 2 emissions have been ","line":29,"x":53.85820007,"y":211.6598053,"width":"335.81","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"additional CO 2 emitted will add to that cumulative burden and warm the planet for ","line":31,"x":53.85559844,"y":187.6598053,"width":"334.37","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"warming is to halt cumulative CO 2 emissions, which means bringing the annual CO 2","line":33,"x":53.85589981,"y":163.6598053,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":506,"change":"Addition","str":"emissions to basically zero levels. 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In fact, in the case of the 1.5 °C scenario, they practi -","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":367.2164917,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":509,"change":"Addition","str":"last 100  years. 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In contrast, the reduction of cumulative CO 2","line":21,"x":53.85889816,"y":125.71649932,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":509,"change":"Addition","str":"1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100","line":25,"x":71.81219532000014,"y":410.05331659000007,"width":"89.90","height":"6.74","fontName":["PINOUT+PcrbxpXvsmdmXmdyqrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":509,"change":"Addition","str":"2,500 Global Cumulative CO 2 Emissions LDF_REF","line":42,"x":81.14719440000015,"y":590.10113764,"width":"171.48","height":"8.08","fontName":["PINOUT+PcrbxpXvsmdmXmdyqrHelvetica","PINOUT+MwmqlxYhymckLsjdsqHelveticaBold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":509,"change":"Addition","str":"2 )","line":66,"x":382.12630512000015,"y":546.5496850000001,"width":"3.98","height":"6.06","fontName":["PINOUT+PcrbxpXvsmdmXmdyqrHelvetica"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":509,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 12.3 Global cumulative CO2 emissions – 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios","line":70,"x":53.85828068000016,"y":392.04639048,"width":"249.76","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"Report on 1.5 °C warming. 1","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"111.34","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"12.4 Implications for Temperature and Sea-Level Rise","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":541.15979003,"width":"272.72","height":"12.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"we can derive a range of projections for every scenarios that provides a good mea -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"600 times for each scenario, varying wide ranges of feedback and forcing parame -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"MAGICC7, as described by Nauels et al. ( 2017 ) and drove that with our probabilis -","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"Antarctic ice sheet instability could lead to a much greater sea-level rise this cen -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"estimated from an average of four studies that the difference between early- industrial ","line":22,"x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003,"width":"333.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"(1850–1900) and recent surface air temperature levels (2006–2015) was 0.97 °C. If ","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003,"width":"334.09","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"we accept here the slightly oversimplified assumption that the 1850–1900 tempera -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"1 The IPCC Special Report estimates for a 0.53 °C distance of the 1.5 °C degree target from the ","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":151.82940673,"width":"333.33","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"2006–2015 level, a carbon budget of 560 GtCO 2 from 1 January 2018 onwards. Reduced by 100 ","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":140.55439758,"width":"331.62","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"GtCO 2 for additional Earth System Feedbacks (see Table 2.2 in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C) ","line":35,"x":53.85739898,"y":130.55439758,"width":"329.89","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"and adding approximately 270 GtCO 2 emissions for the period from 2011 to 2017, the central ","line":36,"x":53.84939956,"y":120.55439758,"width":"331.64","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"730 GtCO 2 from 2011 onwards. This is for a definition of historical warming that is based on a ","line":38,"x":53.86050033,"y":100.55439758,"width":"331.68","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"approximately 150 GtCO 2 would result, if we take into account that the IPCC carbon budget esti -","line":40,"x":53.86270141,"y":80.55439758,"width":"329.43","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":510,"change":"Addition","str":"12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change","line":44,"x":53.8590889,"y":623.66192626,"width":"218.25","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"Of course, there are several uncertainties that are not addressed in those probabi -","line":6,"x":65.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"319.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"Figure 12.4 shows the global mean surface air temperature projections, and their ","line":10,"x":65.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"322.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"scenario is shown in red, the 2.0 °C pathway is shown in blue, and the 1.5 °C path -","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"way is shown in green. For historical temperatures, a mixture between ocean- surface ","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"333.54","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"is that they were around 0.97 °C below the 2006–2015 levels. The median projec -","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":417.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"of all historical CO 2 emissions. In a similar vein, sea-level rise is the sum over all ","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":379.65979003,"width":"334.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"double integral of CO 2 emissions. Therefore, whereas temperatures are relatively ","line":22,"x":53.85480117,"y":343.65979003,"width":"335.12","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"agnostic about when CO 2 emissions occurred, sea-level rise will be higher the lon -","line":23,"x":53.85670852,"y":331.65979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"ger ago the CO 2 emission occurred.","line":24,"x":53.85910034,"y":319.65979003,"width":"141.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"temperature level might be similar. This is a clear benefit of our scenarios and should","line":33,"x":53.85749816,"y":213.15979003,"width":"331.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"slower decline in emissions followed by strong negative emissions. This is impor -","line":36,"x":53.85749816,"y":177.15979003,"width":"331.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"stop any time soon. To halt sea-level rise in the 21 st or even the twenty-second cen -","line":39,"x":53.85749816,"y":141.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"tury, we will require massively negative CO 2 emissions, drawing back out of the ","line":40,"x":53.86180877,"y":127.65979766,"width":"335.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"atmosphere a lot of the CO 2 that we emitted this century. Therefore, even under our ","line":41,"x":53.85979843,"y":115.65979766,"width":"334.11","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":511,"change":"Addition","str":"30 cm relative to the 2010 levels—and will continue to rise to 2100 (Fig.  12.5 ).","line":43,"x":53.85530853,"y":93.15979766,"width":"316.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":512,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 12.4 Global-mean surface air temperature projections","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":81.57859802,"width":"195.47","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":512,"change":"Addition","str":"12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.64910888,"width":"218.25","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":513,"change":"Addition","str":"Fig. 12.5 Global-mean sea level rise projections under the three scenarios developed in this study","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":83.25250244,"width":"325.94","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":514,"change":"Addition","str":"Ricke, K.L., Orr, J.C., Schneider, K. and Caldeira, K., 2013. Risks to coral reefs from ocean car -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":569.79382324,"width":"331.77","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":514,"change":"Addition","str":"Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 ","line":8,"x":53.86682128,"y":189.98831176,"width":"328.52","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+LwcyhkHrqnwrFvgtyxTimesLTStd-Bold","UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":514,"change":"Addition","str":"International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ), which permits use, sharing, ","line":9,"x":53.86682128,"y":179.99230957,"width":"334.74","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+JrxrmgHhwrvyTcvmjtTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":514,"change":"Addition","str":"12 Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change","line":18,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"218.25","height":"8.50","fontName":["UFCXMJ+TppvrgFckxvgDntxnnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"471 © The Author(s) 2019 ","line":0,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":56.70920181,"width":"89.89","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske (ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , ","line":1,"x":53.85879801999998,"y":46.71319961,"width":"210.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"Abstract The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the ","line":8,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":373.02770996,"width":"329.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold","HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"Policy recommendations for the energy sector with a focus on policies for build -","line":15,"x":65.85829828999998,"y":289.02770996,"width":"319.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"ings sector decarbonisation, for the transport and industry sector as well as a recom -","line":16,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":277.02770996,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"S. Teske ( * ) · D. Giurco","line":18,"x":53.85829828999998,"y":235.26539611,"width":"85.08","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","RPHFCF+NlksrdSbymkvPqrltvWingdings-Regular"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: sven.teske@uts.edu.au ; damien.giurco@uts.edu.au","line":20,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":215.27340698,"width":"199.11","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: thomas.pregger@dlr.de","line":24,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":170.28289794,"width":"105.67","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: johannes.pagenkopf@dlr.de ; Bent.vandenAdel@dlr.de ; oezcan.deniz@dlr.de","line":28,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":125.29239654,"width":"287.35","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"e-mail: malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au","line":32,"x":53.85889719999998,"y":80.30190277,"width":"151.03","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":515,"change":"Addition","str":"UNFCCC ( 2015 )","line":38,"x":326.72589015,"y":408.53787231,"width":"58.79","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"new business concepts for the energy sector, which will require entirely new poli -","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"Scenario allows for a 3–5 years transition period in which to implement policy mea -","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"are greater than can be delivered by the energy transition alone (see Chap. 4 ). ","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"334.17","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"be implemented. The establishment of efficient transport systems and industry pro -","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":381.15979003,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"cesses, or simply the provision of required renewable energy and storage technolo -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":369.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"issued. The energy transition will require political determination and public accep -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"tance. Therefore, the planning process will require resolute stakeholder involve -","line":25,"x":53.85829925,"y":309.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"seems unavoidable if we are to limit global warming. In particular, the way con -","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":285.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"implement the Paris Agreement on national levels must also take the land-use sec -","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"tor, as well as the main GHGs, methane, N 2 O, and fluorinated gases, into account.","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":199.6598053,"width":"327.22","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"The following sections present the main findings and lessons of this research proj -","line":35,"x":65.85610961,"y":189.1598053,"width":"319.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"ect, and highlight its limitations and further research requirements. Finally, we pro -","line":36,"x":53.85610961,"y":177.1598053,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":516,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1 Findings and Limitations—Modelling","line":39,"x":53.85829925,"y":109.15979766,"width":"214.38","height":"12.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":517,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.1 Key Findings—Renewable Energy Potential Mapping","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324,"width":"295.14","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":517,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.2 Limitations and Further Research—Renewable Energy ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":427.79379272,"width":"307.46","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":517,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.3 Key Findings—Transport Scenario","line":22,"x":53.85829925,"y":245.79379272,"width":"203.47","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":517,"change":"Addition","str":"In general, we found that beyond pure technical measures with regard to pow -","line":32,"x":65.85829925,"y":109.79379272,"width":"319.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":517,"change":"Addition","str":"13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"173.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":518,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.4 Limitations and Further Research ","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003,"width":"202.58","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":518,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.5 Key Findings—Long-Term Energy Scenario","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":299.15979003,"width":"249.13","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":518,"change":"Addition","str":"efficiency improvements in all sectors. The electrification of the transport and heat -","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":235.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":518,"change":"Addition","str":"and strategies must be achieved. This applies, for example, to the per capita electric -","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":187.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":518,"change":"Addition","str":"ity consumption (electric appliances without heating) of ‘residential and other sec -","line":28,"x":53.85829925,"y":175.15979003,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":518,"change":"Addition","str":"with today’s standards, particularly in OECD countries—at least for as long as fos -","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"technology change and replacement strategies and supporting regulatory and gover -","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"331.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"heating, sustainable biomass use, especially for co-generation and biofuels, and dis -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"The exploitation of renewable energy potentials depends strongly on regional con -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"12, from 2000 GW in 2015 to more than 25,000 GW in 2050. Cumulative invest -","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"to around US$ 50,000 billion compared with around US$20000 billion in the refer -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":453.15979003,"width":"331.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"relationships must also be realized among countries within individual world regions ","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003,"width":"333.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"efficient implementation of new respectively the expansion of existing central infra -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"global growth in the demand for energy services, at least for as long as fossil ener -","line":31,"x":53.85829925,"y":237.15977478,"width":"331.90","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"average global temperature increase due to climate change below 1.5 °C, the trans -","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"formation must be accomplished as fast as technically possible. The trend in increas -","line":36,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"ing global energy-related CO 2 emissions must be reversed as soon as possible (in ","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":163.6598053,"width":"334.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":519,"change":"Addition","str":"13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","line":44,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"173.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.6 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324,"width":"278.59","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"account to be taken of sub-regional differences in energy demand and the character -","line":13,"x":53.85829925,"y":433.79382324,"width":"331.84","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"requirements of a target-oriented pathway. Our results clearly reveal and quantita -","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":397.79382324,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"huge investments and fundamental changes in producing, distributing, and consum -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":349.79382324,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"of each region, down to the country, sub-country, and community levels. Such anal -","line":23,"x":53.85829925,"y":313.79382324,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"yses can then form the basis for the further investigation of the economic implica -","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":301.79382324,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"energy transition will change the overall material demand and activity of the manu -","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":229.79382324,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"is whether the current market mechanisms are capable of supporting the fundamen -","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":193.79380798,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":520,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.7 Key Findings—Power Sector Analysis","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":137.79379272,"width":"216.72","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"must be transported to other regions. The dominant power-generation technolo -","line":6,"x":65.85829925,"y":537.1597900300001,"width":"319.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"Ratio between maximum variable generation capacity and maximum load: The ","line":11,"x":53.85829925,"y":477.15979003000007,"width":"335.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"results presented in Chap. 8 suggest that a ratio of 180% variable renewable ","line":12,"x":65.85829925,"y":465.15979003000007,"width":"323.52","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"capacity to the maximum load represents the optimum relationship. If the capac -","line":13,"x":65.85829925,"y":453.15979003000007,"width":"319.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"solar PV combined is 180 GW. Short-term peaks are relatively rare, and curtail -","line":17,"x":65.85829925,"y":405.15979003000007,"width":"319.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"generation were above 200 GW, while the load remained at 100 GW, the curtail -","line":19,"x":65.85829925,"y":381.15979003000007,"width":"319.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"demand in all regions. Therefore, the levelized cost of electricity generation can -","line":25,"x":65.85829925,"y":309.15979003000007,"width":"319.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"management of demand, and hydrogen-fuelled power plants can provide valu -","line":32,"x":65.85829925,"y":225.15977478000005,"width":"319.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.8 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":169.15980530000004,"width":"278.59","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"Measured load curves for regions, countries, or states/provinces are often unavail -","line":36,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766000005,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":521,"change":"Addition","str":"13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","line":43,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"173.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.9 Key Findings—Non-energy Scenarios","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":469.15979003,"width":"217.90","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"The key finding of the land-use-related emission scenarios is that a dedicated con -","line":10,"x":53.85829925,"y":441.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"inherent part of future mitigation actions, whether CO 2 sequestration is pursued by ","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":355.65979003,"width":"334.31","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"important result of this study is that the addition of land-use CO 2 and other GHG ","line":19,"x":53.85770034,"y":331.65979003,"width":"334.78","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"get below 1.5 °C warming without a reliance on massive net negative CO 2 emission ","line":21,"x":53.8533783,"y":307.65979003,"width":"333.93","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"Going beyond the land-use CO 2 emission pathways that we sketched for a series ","line":23,"x":65.85849761,"y":283.65979003,"width":"322.00","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"able to distil non-CO 2 pathways from this rich scenario database—in a way that ","line":28,"x":53.86289978,"y":223.6598053,"width":"335.24","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"respects the correlations and dependencies between energy-related CO 2 and other ","line":29,"x":53.85430908,"y":211.6598053,"width":"334.88","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"but also key to the proper estimation of the climate effects of the energy-related CO 2","line":31,"x":53.86148071,"y":187.6598053,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":522,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.10 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":133.1598053,"width":"284.59","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"various countries and biomes. This study assumed only a rather coarse approxima -","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"In terms of the non-CO 2 emission trajectories, this study relied heavily on the ","line":5,"x":65.85829925,"y":547.65979003,"width":"323.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"a bottom-up energy-system and land-use/agricultural model must be able to esti -","line":10,"x":53.85618972,"y":489.15979003,"width":"331.67","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"mate methane and N 2 O emissions from various agricultural activities in a more ","line":11,"x":53.85618972,"y":475.65979003,"width":"335.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"mitigation options for non-CO 2 emissions. This bottom-up modelling capacity is ","line":14,"x":53.8609085,"y":439.65979003,"width":"335.27","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.11 Key Findings—Employment Analysis","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":385.15979003,"width":"220.69","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"The occupational employment analysis was developed in 2018 to improve the data -","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.12 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":205.1598053,"width":"284.59","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"are very limited. Although there are some data for solar PV and onshore and off -","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":151.1598053,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"energy. Furthermore, occupational surveys of the heating and energy efficiency sec -","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":127.15979766,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":523,"change":"Addition","str":"13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","line":34,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"173.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":524,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.13 Key Findings—Mineral Resource Analysis","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":595.79382324,"width":"247.14","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":524,"change":"Addition","str":"Lithium sees the highest projected increase from mined ore of around 40 times cur -","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":567.79382324,"width":"331.86","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":524,"change":"Addition","str":"less than known resources. The scenarios anticipate a scale up in resource explora -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":507.79382324,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":524,"change":"Addition","str":"For cobalt, future scenarios exceed currently known reserves and approach cur -","line":13,"x":65.85829925,"y":435.79382324,"width":"319.85","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":524,"change":"Addition","str":"13.1.14 Limitations and Further Research Requirement—","line":27,"x":53.85829925,"y":235.79379272,"width":"284.59","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"products, and to actively encourage efficient material use in both energy and trans -","line":5,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"13.2 Policy Recommendations by Sector","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":493.15979003,"width":"201.07","height":"12.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"13.2.1 Energy","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":337.15979003,"width":"66.00","height":"12.00","fontName":["QLSZOH+GrhvcxCwbthmBcsljlTimesLTStd-BoldItalic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"heating, and fuel supply. The demand side can be broken down further into build -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003,"width":"331.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"the long-term future to the key drivers of the energy demand and the energy effi -","line":28,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.15979003,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"1. Define the maximum carbon budget and other targets, milestones, and con -","line":33,"x":53.85829925,"y":111.15979003,"width":"326.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"2. Define the renewable energy resource potentials and limits within a space-","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":87.15979003,"width":"326.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":525,"change":"Addition","str":"13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","line":37,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"173.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"3. Identify the economic and societal drivers of demand;","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"222.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"4. Define the efficiency potentials and energy intensities by energy service and ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"330.70","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"5. Establish time lines and narratives for the technology implementation on the ","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"330.53","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"6. Estimate the infrastructure needs, generation costs, and other effects;","line":6,"x":53.85829925,"y":537.15979003,"width":"282.74","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"7. Identify the required policies and discuss the policy options.","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"248.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"13.2.1.1 General Energy Policies","line":8,"x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"134.97","height":"10.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"The energy sector requires both very specific measures, such as grid codes and effi -","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":465.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"effectively develop energy policy and its regulative interventions. The most impor -","line":12,"x":53.85829925,"y":429.15979003,"width":"331.89","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"• Renewable energy targets and incentives for their deployment and expansion;","line":14,"x":53.85829925,"y":399.15979003,"width":"312.91","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"• Internalization of external costs by carbon tax or surcharge;","line":15,"x":53.85829925,"y":387.15979003,"width":"241.44","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"• Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies;","line":16,"x":53.85829925,"y":375.15979003,"width":"137.94","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"• Accelerated replacement of fossil and inefficient technologies.","line":17,"x":53.85829925,"y":363.15979003,"width":"253.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"energy. Experiences of the past two decades clearly show the effectiveness of renew -","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"“Targets remain one of the primary means for policy makers to express their com -","line":22,"x":53.85829925,"y":297.15979003,"width":"331.61","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"energy development as well as for specific sectors” (REN21-GSR- 2018 ). To achieve ","line":24,"x":53.85829925,"y":273.15979003,"width":"333.40","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"investment stimulated. For the latter, auctions and feed-in tariffs have proven suit -","line":26,"x":53.85829925,"y":249.15977478,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"internalize the external costs. Carbon-pricing schemes can be established as cap-","line":31,"x":53.85829925,"y":189.15977478,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"and- trade schemes or taxes. Carbon pricing is not sufficient on its own to achieve ","line":32,"x":53.85829925,"y":177.15977478,"width":"334.62","height":"10.00","fontName":["AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"carbon pricing will be necessary (Carbon Tracker 2018 ). To make carbon pricing an ","line":35,"x":53.85829925,"y":141.15977478,"width":"333.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":526,"change":"Addition","str":"total amount of global fossil fuel subsidies was estimated to be around US$260 bil -","line":41,"x":53.85829925,"y":69.1597824,"width":"331.64","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"lion in 2016 (IEA-DB 2018 ). The governments of the G20 and the Asia-Pacific ","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"335.51","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"Economic Cooperation (APEC) reached an agreement to “ rationalize and phase out ","line":2,"x":53.85829925,"y":585.15979003,"width":"333.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful con -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":573.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"sumption ” (OECD-IEA 2018 ).","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"122.48","height":"10.00","fontName":["AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic","HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"economic effects of the energy transition (see Chap. 10 ). Supporting measures to ","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":525.15979003,"width":"334.97","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"13.2.1.2 Policies for Buildings Sector Decarbonisation","line":19,"x":53.85829925,"y":357.15979003,"width":"224.83","height":"10.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"To reduce the energy demands of existing building stock and new buildings, con -","line":20,"x":53.85829925,"y":333.15979003,"width":"331.69","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"stantly most stringent energy demand standards (= building energy codes ) are ","line":21,"x":53.85829925,"y":321.15979003,"width":"336.32","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman","AASHYN+HftscjKjwntyKflrjqTimesLTStd-Italic"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"energy codes in 15 countries (Young 2014 ) distinguished between residential and ","line":30,"x":53.85829925,"y":213.15977478,"width":"334.87","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"fuel subsidies, could support efforts to save energy. However, they must be accom -","line":38,"x":53.85829925,"y":117.1597824,"width":"331.68","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":527,"change":"Addition","str":"13 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations","line":40,"x":53.85829925,"y":623.65332031,"width":"173.01","height":"8.50","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"13.2.1.3 Policies for more-Efficient Electrical Appliances","line":1,"x":53.85829925,"y":597.15979003,"width":"236.04","height":"10.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"in buildings, the efficiency standards for electrical appliances, all forms of informa -","line":3,"x":53.85829925,"y":561.15979003,"width":"331.66","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"tion and communication technologies (computers, smart devices, screens, televi -","line":4,"x":53.85829925,"y":549.15979003,"width":"331.63","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"gies are required. These efficiency standards must be dynamic and designed to sup -","line":7,"x":53.85829925,"y":513.15979003,"width":"331.65","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"(IEA-PM 2018 ) is a positive example of dynamic efficiency standards. Labelling ","line":9,"x":53.85829925,"y":489.15979003,"width":"334.16","height":"10.00","fontName":["HNJXSZ+PjhwjxNfxdkbDvkmhnTimesLTStd-Roman"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"13.2.1.4 Policies for the Transport Sector","line":14,"x":53.85829925,"y":405.15979003,"width":"170.73","height":"10.00","fontName":["WUUJUV+SxpbbsFmqqddLjmwxwTimesLTStd-Bold"],"dir":["ltr"]} {"page":528,"change":"Addition","str":"transport system. 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